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000
FXUS63 KLSX 302055
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT, AND WE
SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY.  USED THIS MORNING`S LOWS AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE BLENDED WITH A DOSE OF MOS GUIDANCE TO YIELD
LOWS FROM AROUND 60 TO NEAR 70 IN THE STL METRO TONIGHT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS AND A
SHARP RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS BACK
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND COMBINED WITH A COUPLE OF FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THE FIRST
POTENTIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE SEASONABLY WARM...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOW 70S WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE DOG DAYS
OF SUMMER.  GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY OUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH MISSOURI DOWN INTO ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG.  REGARDLESS THERE
SHOULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPIATION BY MID WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY LOWER TEMPERATURES.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT W/NW WINDS DRNG THE DAY POTENTIALLY BCMNG
LGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A W/NW WIND AOB
10KTS.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     70  91  72  92 /   0  10  20  10
QUINCY          65  88  67  90 /   5  20  20  10
COLUMBIA        66  90  69  90 /   0  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  64  92  69  92 /   0  10  20  10
SALEM           66  89  66  89 /   0  10  10  10
FARMINGTON      63  91  66  90 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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000
FXUS63 KEAX 302023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Generally quiet conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected
over the next several days as upper-level high pressure currently
over the southern Plains continues to retrograde westward and brings
northwest flow back across the region. At the surface, high pressure
will drift very slowly to the east, allowing light southerly winds
and a bit more moisture to seep back into the region beginning
tonight and continuing into the weekend, bringing dewpoints back
into the upper 60s to near 70, and max heat indices back into the
mid to upper 90s most afternoons. A few disturbances may ride down
the ridge and into the region during the forecast period, but will
be somewhat difficult to pin down both spatially and temporally.

The first ridge-riding shortwave trough will drop southeastward on
Friday and may allow a few thunderstorms to develop across eastern
Nebraska, which could translate southeast into the region late
Friday evening into the early overnight hours. Storms will likely
weaken and diminish in intensity as they sink southward away from
better upper-level flow and forcing, so have reduced PoPs after
midnight and south of the MO river. A similar situation is possible
on Saturday night; however, storms will likely develop and stay
farther to the north. Confidence with the presence and location of
any storms during this late work week and weekend period are fairly
low, and most areas likely will not see rain until next week.

Precipitation chances increase early next work week as northwest
flow amplifies and a few stronger shortwave troughs push directly
into the forecast area. Currently, the best chance for precipitation
should come Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and again Thursday
night into early Friday; however, precipitation is at least possible
in nearly every period of the mid- to long-range forecast. Humid
conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected to continue with
highs in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, until
perhaps the end of the period when a boundary potentially sets up
south of the forecast area and allows cooler northeast flow to sink
into the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and for the majority of
tonight. For the next few hours, broken cirrus will continue to
stream northward from decaying storms in south central KS, then
should gradually begin to dissipate by late afternoon. Patchy light
fog is possible again early Friday morning, but may only impact KSTJ.
Winds will remain very light and fairly variable in direction, but
generally out of the southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin


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000
FXUS63 KSGF 301956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was an incredible day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the 80s under a mix of
sun and clouds. Humidity values were significantly lower, making
the air feel more comfortable than the past several days.

There were a couple of isolated showers in southeast Kansas and
and far southwest Missouri. We don`t think this will expand much,
and will likely dissipate over the next hour or so. Deeper
convection was located in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
This activity was associated with a frontal boundary lingering in
this area.

For tonight, look for comfortable weather with lows in the low to
mid 60s. Winds will be light and variable due to a Canadian high
pressure system hovering overhead.

Friday will be another decent day with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Humidity values will remain in check, making for a nice
day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist into the weekend as summertime ridging
becomes more focused over the deserts of New Mexico. Models don`t
seem to signal much in the way of thunderstorm activity this
weekend or into next work week.

However, sufficient moisture will exist for rain if any shortwave
disturbance migrates through the northwest flow. Therefore I`m
skeptical that we`ll stay dry through the extended forecast, even
though the models suggest we will. I suspect something will
change, and eventually a disturbance will approach the Ozarks
forcing some showers and thunderstorms at some point.

At any rate we do have a good idea that temperatures will range
from the upper 80s to the middle 90s through at least Tuesday.
A back door cold front by the middle of next week could send some
cooler air into southern Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over JLN if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Frye






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was an incredible day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the 80s under a mix of
sun and clouds. Humidity values were significantly lower, making
the air feel more comfortable than the past several days.

There were a couple of isolated showers in southeast Kansas and
and far southwest Missouri. We don`t think this will expand much,
and will likely dissipate over the next hour or so. Deeper
convection was located in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
This activity was associated with a frontal boundary lingering in
this area.

For tonight, look for comfortable weather with lows in the low to
mid 60s. Winds will be light and variable due to a Canadian high
pressure system hovering overhead.

Friday will be another decent day with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Humidity values will remain in check, making for a nice
day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist into the weekend as summertime ridging
becomes more focused over the deserts of New Mexico. Models don`t
seem to signal much in the way of thunderstorm activity this
weekend or into next work week.

However, sufficient moisture will exist for rain if any shortwave
disturbance migrates through the northwest flow. Therefore I`m
skeptical that we`ll stay dry through the extended forecast, even
though the models suggest we will. I suspect something will
change, and eventually a disturbance will approach the Ozarks
forcing some showers and thunderstorms at some point.

At any rate we do have a good idea that temperatures will range
from the upper 80s to the middle 90s through at least Tuesday.
A back door cold front by the middle of next week could send some
cooler air into southern Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over JLN if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was an incredible day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the 80s under a mix of
sun and clouds. Humidity values were significantly lower, making
the air feel more comfortable than the past several days.

There were a couple of isolated showers in southeast Kansas and
and far southwest Missouri. We don`t think this will expand much,
and will likely dissipate over the next hour or so. Deeper
convection was located in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
This activity was associated with a frontal boundary lingering in
this area.

For tonight, look for comfortable weather with lows in the low to
mid 60s. Winds will be light and variable due to a Canadian high
pressure system hovering overhead.

Friday will be another decent day with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Humidity values will remain in check, making for a nice
day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist into the weekend as summertime ridging
becomes more focused over the deserts of New Mexico. Models don`t
seem to signal much in the way of thunderstorm activity this
weekend or into next work week.

However, sufficient moisture will exist for rain if any shortwave
disturbance migrates through the northwest flow. Therefore I`m
skeptical that we`ll stay dry through the extended forecast, even
though the models suggest we will. I suspect something will
change, and eventually a disturbance will approach the Ozarks
forcing some showers and thunderstorms at some point.

At any rate we do have a good idea that temperatures will range
from the upper 80s to the middle 90s through at least Tuesday.
A back door cold front by the middle of next week could send some
cooler air into southern Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over JLN if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was an incredible day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the 80s under a mix of
sun and clouds. Humidity values were significantly lower, making
the air feel more comfortable than the past several days.

There were a couple of isolated showers in southeast Kansas and
and far southwest Missouri. We don`t think this will expand much,
and will likely dissipate over the next hour or so. Deeper
convection was located in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
This activity was associated with a frontal boundary lingering in
this area.

For tonight, look for comfortable weather with lows in the low to
mid 60s. Winds will be light and variable due to a Canadian high
pressure system hovering overhead.

Friday will be another decent day with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Humidity values will remain in check, making for a nice
day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist into the weekend as summertime ridging
becomes more focused over the deserts of New Mexico. Models don`t
seem to signal much in the way of thunderstorm activity this
weekend or into next work week.

However, sufficient moisture will exist for rain if any shortwave
disturbance migrates through the northwest flow. Therefore I`m
skeptical that we`ll stay dry through the extended forecast, even
though the models suggest we will. I suspect something will
change, and eventually a disturbance will approach the Ozarks
forcing some showers and thunderstorms at some point.

At any rate we do have a good idea that temperatures will range
from the upper 80s to the middle 90s through at least Tuesday.
A back door cold front by the middle of next week could send some
cooler air into southern Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over JLN if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was an incredible day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the 80s under a mix of
sun and clouds. Humidity values were significantly lower, making
the air feel more comfortable than the past several days.

There were a couple of isolated showers in southeast Kansas and
and far southwest Missouri. We don`t think this will expand much,
and will likely dissipate over the next hour or so. Deeper
convection was located in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
This activity was associated with a frontal boundary lingering in
this area.

For tonight, look for comfortable weather with lows in the low to
mid 60s. Winds will be light and variable due to a Canadian high
pressure system hovering overhead.

Friday will be another decent day with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Humidity values will remain in check, making for a nice
day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist into the weekend as summertime ridging
becomes more focused over the deserts of New Mexico. Models don`t
seem to signal much in the way of thunderstorm activity this
weekend or into next work week.

However, sufficient moisture will exist for rain if any shortwave
disturbance migrates through the northwest flow. Therefore I`m
skeptical that we`ll stay dry through the extended forecast, even
though the models suggest we will. I suspect something will
change, and eventually a disturbance will approach the Ozarks
forcing some showers and thunderstorms at some point.

At any rate we do have a good idea that temperatures will range
from the upper 80s to the middle 90s through at least Tuesday.
A back door cold front by the middle of next week could send some
cooler air into southern Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over JLN if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301739
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS OOZED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT
COOLER...THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE HAS BEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WHICH
HAVE DROPPED 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR STEAMY LEVELS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...PRIMARILY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT W/NW WINDS DRNG THE DAY POTENTIALLY BCMNG
LGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A W/NW WIND AOB
10KTS.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  70  91  72 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  88  67 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  69 /   0   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  64  92  69 /   0   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  91  66 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 301739
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS OOZED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT
COOLER...THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE HAS BEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WHICH
HAVE DROPPED 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR STEAMY LEVELS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...PRIMARILY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT W/NW WINDS DRNG THE DAY POTENTIALLY BCMNG
LGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A W/NW WIND AOB
10KTS.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  70  91  72 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  88  67 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  69 /   0   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  64  92  69 /   0   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  91  66 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301719
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over JLN if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301719
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over JLN if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301719
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over JLN if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301719
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. High
cloudiness is expected off and on over the next 12 hours or so.
We will closely monitor a complex of showers and storms over
portions of central/southeast Kansas through the afternoon. For now,
expect this complex to stay west of our terminals, however, lower
cigs are possible over JLN if the complex continues to build
eastward. Surface winds are expected to be light and shift to a
more southerly direction by midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Today through Friday:

Conditions through Friday continue to look dry and seasonable. This
is thanks in part to a elongated upper level ridge covering most of
the southern CONUS today. The other part will be the surface ridge
of high pressure that will be acting to keep the area dry. Highs
today will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Tonight in Friday we will
begin to experience a shift in the upper level pattern as the upper
level ridge begins to retrograde westward and begins to build over
the Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on the
lee side of the upper ridge. Surface high pressure will remain in
control over the local area through Friday keeping conditions dry
with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Friday night through Saturday night:

Friday night an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will
send a cold front towards the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop north of the area in the late afternoon/evening with peak
daytime instability. These storms will then sink south into northern
Missouri Friday night. With weak forcing, and weak shear, widely
scattered storms are not expected to be severe even despite 1500-
2500J/Kg of MUCAPE. Storms will weaken by Saturday morning with dry
conditions expected on the day Saturday. highs Saturday will be in
the mid 80s to around 90. Saturday evening a shortwave will begin to
drop through the northern Plains with an associated cold front.
storms area expected to develop north of the area during the late
afternoon/evening. These storms will move southeastward into the
area Saturday night and potentially grow upscale into an MCS as a 30-
35kt LLJ gets cranked up. There is potential for damaging winds,
mainly across northern Missouri, if the storms become organized.

Sunday through Monday:

There may be residual left over showers and thunderstorms over the
area Sunday morning associated with the decaying MCS however, Sunday
does look to dry out. This drying looks to continue on Monday as
highs remain seasonable in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Monday night through Thursday:

Model disagreement during this timeframe leads to a large degree in
uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS maintains a persistent pattern
through this period with the upper level ridge over the Rockies and
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
This leaves the local area in a warm but active pattern under
northwest flow aloft. The EC on the otherhand depicts a strong upper
level shortwave trough moving into the southwestern CONUS on Monday
and flattening the upper trough over the western CONUS leading to a
less amplified pattern. This would keep the area a little cooler and
drier until Tuesday/Tuesday night when the aforementioned shortwave
trough moves into the local area. With such discrepancies in larger
scale features have maintained POPs/temps inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and for the majority of
tonight. For the next few hours, broken cirrus will continue to
stream northward from decaying storms in south central KS, then
should gradually begin to dissipate by late afternoon. Patchy light
fog is possible again early Friday morning, but may only impact KSTJ.
Winds will remain very light and fairly variable in direction, but
generally out of the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin



000
FXUS63 KEAX 301714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Today through Friday:

Conditions through Friday continue to look dry and seasonable. This
is thanks in part to a elongated upper level ridge covering most of
the southern CONUS today. The other part will be the surface ridge
of high pressure that will be acting to keep the area dry. Highs
today will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Tonight in Friday we will
begin to experience a shift in the upper level pattern as the upper
level ridge begins to retrograde westward and begins to build over
the Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on the
lee side of the upper ridge. Surface high pressure will remain in
control over the local area through Friday keeping conditions dry
with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Friday night through Saturday night:

Friday night an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will
send a cold front towards the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop north of the area in the late afternoon/evening with peak
daytime instability. These storms will then sink south into northern
Missouri Friday night. With weak forcing, and weak shear, widely
scattered storms are not expected to be severe even despite 1500-
2500J/Kg of MUCAPE. Storms will weaken by Saturday morning with dry
conditions expected on the day Saturday. highs Saturday will be in
the mid 80s to around 90. Saturday evening a shortwave will begin to
drop through the northern Plains with an associated cold front.
storms area expected to develop north of the area during the late
afternoon/evening. These storms will move southeastward into the
area Saturday night and potentially grow upscale into an MCS as a 30-
35kt LLJ gets cranked up. There is potential for damaging winds,
mainly across northern Missouri, if the storms become organized.

Sunday through Monday:

There may be residual left over showers and thunderstorms over the
area Sunday morning associated with the decaying MCS however, Sunday
does look to dry out. This drying looks to continue on Monday as
highs remain seasonable in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Monday night through Thursday:

Model disagreement during this timeframe leads to a large degree in
uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS maintains a persistent pattern
through this period with the upper level ridge over the Rockies and
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
This leaves the local area in a warm but active pattern under
northwest flow aloft. The EC on the otherhand depicts a strong upper
level shortwave trough moving into the southwestern CONUS on Monday
and flattening the upper trough over the western CONUS leading to a
less amplified pattern. This would keep the area a little cooler and
drier until Tuesday/Tuesday night when the aforementioned shortwave
trough moves into the local area. With such discrepancies in larger
scale features have maintained POPs/temps inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and for the majority of
tonight. For the next few hours, broken cirrus will continue to
stream northward from decaying storms in south central KS, then
should gradually begin to dissipate by late afternoon. Patchy light
fog is possible again early Friday morning, but may only impact KSTJ.
Winds will remain very light and fairly variable in direction, but
generally out of the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin



000
FXUS63 KEAX 301714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Today through Friday:

Conditions through Friday continue to look dry and seasonable. This
is thanks in part to a elongated upper level ridge covering most of
the southern CONUS today. The other part will be the surface ridge
of high pressure that will be acting to keep the area dry. Highs
today will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Tonight in Friday we will
begin to experience a shift in the upper level pattern as the upper
level ridge begins to retrograde westward and begins to build over
the Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on the
lee side of the upper ridge. Surface high pressure will remain in
control over the local area through Friday keeping conditions dry
with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Friday night through Saturday night:

Friday night an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will
send a cold front towards the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop north of the area in the late afternoon/evening with peak
daytime instability. These storms will then sink south into northern
Missouri Friday night. With weak forcing, and weak shear, widely
scattered storms are not expected to be severe even despite 1500-
2500J/Kg of MUCAPE. Storms will weaken by Saturday morning with dry
conditions expected on the day Saturday. highs Saturday will be in
the mid 80s to around 90. Saturday evening a shortwave will begin to
drop through the northern Plains with an associated cold front.
storms area expected to develop north of the area during the late
afternoon/evening. These storms will move southeastward into the
area Saturday night and potentially grow upscale into an MCS as a 30-
35kt LLJ gets cranked up. There is potential for damaging winds,
mainly across northern Missouri, if the storms become organized.

Sunday through Monday:

There may be residual left over showers and thunderstorms over the
area Sunday morning associated with the decaying MCS however, Sunday
does look to dry out. This drying looks to continue on Monday as
highs remain seasonable in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Monday night through Thursday:

Model disagreement during this timeframe leads to a large degree in
uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS maintains a persistent pattern
through this period with the upper level ridge over the Rockies and
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
This leaves the local area in a warm but active pattern under
northwest flow aloft. The EC on the otherhand depicts a strong upper
level shortwave trough moving into the southwestern CONUS on Monday
and flattening the upper trough over the western CONUS leading to a
less amplified pattern. This would keep the area a little cooler and
drier until Tuesday/Tuesday night when the aforementioned shortwave
trough moves into the local area. With such discrepancies in larger
scale features have maintained POPs/temps inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and for the majority of
tonight. For the next few hours, broken cirrus will continue to
stream northward from decaying storms in south central KS, then
should gradually begin to dissipate by late afternoon. Patchy light
fog is possible again early Friday morning, but may only impact KSTJ.
Winds will remain very light and fairly variable in direction, but
generally out of the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 301714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Today through Friday:

Conditions through Friday continue to look dry and seasonable. This
is thanks in part to a elongated upper level ridge covering most of
the southern CONUS today. The other part will be the surface ridge
of high pressure that will be acting to keep the area dry. Highs
today will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Tonight in Friday we will
begin to experience a shift in the upper level pattern as the upper
level ridge begins to retrograde westward and begins to build over
the Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on the
lee side of the upper ridge. Surface high pressure will remain in
control over the local area through Friday keeping conditions dry
with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Friday night through Saturday night:

Friday night an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will
send a cold front towards the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop north of the area in the late afternoon/evening with peak
daytime instability. These storms will then sink south into northern
Missouri Friday night. With weak forcing, and weak shear, widely
scattered storms are not expected to be severe even despite 1500-
2500J/Kg of MUCAPE. Storms will weaken by Saturday morning with dry
conditions expected on the day Saturday. highs Saturday will be in
the mid 80s to around 90. Saturday evening a shortwave will begin to
drop through the northern Plains with an associated cold front.
storms area expected to develop north of the area during the late
afternoon/evening. These storms will move southeastward into the
area Saturday night and potentially grow upscale into an MCS as a 30-
35kt LLJ gets cranked up. There is potential for damaging winds,
mainly across northern Missouri, if the storms become organized.

Sunday through Monday:

There may be residual left over showers and thunderstorms over the
area Sunday morning associated with the decaying MCS however, Sunday
does look to dry out. This drying looks to continue on Monday as
highs remain seasonable in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Monday night through Thursday:

Model disagreement during this timeframe leads to a large degree in
uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS maintains a persistent pattern
through this period with the upper level ridge over the Rockies and
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
This leaves the local area in a warm but active pattern under
northwest flow aloft. The EC on the otherhand depicts a strong upper
level shortwave trough moving into the southwestern CONUS on Monday
and flattening the upper trough over the western CONUS leading to a
less amplified pattern. This would keep the area a little cooler and
drier until Tuesday/Tuesday night when the aforementioned shortwave
trough moves into the local area. With such discrepancies in larger
scale features have maintained POPs/temps inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and for the majority of
tonight. For the next few hours, broken cirrus will continue to
stream northward from decaying storms in south central KS, then
should gradually begin to dissipate by late afternoon. Patchy light
fog is possible again early Friday morning, but may only impact KSTJ.
Winds will remain very light and fairly variable in direction, but
generally out of the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KLSX 301156
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS OOZED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT
COOLER...THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE HAS BEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WHICH
HAVE DROPPED 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR STEAMY LEVELS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...PRIMARILY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CLOUDINESS AT TAF SITES WILL BE LIMITED TO A SMATTERING OF FAIR-
WEATHER CU THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH BASES AOA
4KFT...WITH THESE CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS IMPACTING
AREAS SOUTH OF I70 CORRIDOR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: GENRALLY CLEAR, WITH A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CU
WITH BASES AOA 4KFT FORMING IN THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME. THESE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRUETT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  66 /   5   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  66  91  67 /   5   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  89  67 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 301156
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS OOZED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT
COOLER...THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE HAS BEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WHICH
HAVE DROPPED 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR STEAMY LEVELS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...PRIMARILY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CLOUDINESS AT TAF SITES WILL BE LIMITED TO A SMATTERING OF FAIR-
WEATHER CU THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH BASES AOA
4KFT...WITH THESE CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS IMPACTING
AREAS SOUTH OF I70 CORRIDOR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: GENRALLY CLEAR, WITH A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CU
WITH BASES AOA 4KFT FORMING IN THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME. THESE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRUETT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  66 /   5   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  66  91  67 /   5   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  89  67 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 301156
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS OOZED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT
COOLER...THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE HAS BEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WHICH
HAVE DROPPED 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR STEAMY LEVELS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...PRIMARILY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CLOUDINESS AT TAF SITES WILL BE LIMITED TO A SMATTERING OF FAIR-
WEATHER CU THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH BASES AOA
4KFT...WITH THESE CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS IMPACTING
AREAS SOUTH OF I70 CORRIDOR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: GENRALLY CLEAR, WITH A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CU
WITH BASES AOA 4KFT FORMING IN THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME. THESE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRUETT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  66 /   5   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  66  91  67 /   5   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  89  67 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 301057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions can be expected through the next 24 hours. Light
easterly winds less than 10 knots and mostly clear skies. There
will be no aviation concerns across the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions can be expected through the next 24 hours. Light
easterly winds less than 10 knots and mostly clear skies. There
will be no aviation concerns across the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions can be expected through the next 24 hours. Light
easterly winds less than 10 knots and mostly clear skies. There
will be no aviation concerns across the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 301057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions can be expected through the next 24 hours. Light
easterly winds less than 10 knots and mostly clear skies. There
will be no aviation concerns across the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 301044
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
544 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Today through Friday:

Conditions through Friday continue to look dry and seasonable. This
is thanks in part to a elongated upper level ridge covering most of
the southern CONUS today. The other part will be the surface ridge
of high pressure that will be acting to keep the area dry. Highs
today will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Tonight in Friday we will
begin to experience a shift in the upper level pattern as the upper
level ridge begins to retrograde westward and begins to build over
the Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on the
lee side of the upper ridge. Surface high pressure will remain in
control over the local area through Friday keeping conditions dry
with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Friday night through Saturday night:

Friday night an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will
send a cold front towards the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop north of the area in the late afternoon/evening with peak
daytime instability. These storms will then sink south into northern
Missouri Friday night. With weak forcing, and weak shear, widely
scattered storms are not expected to be severe even despite 1500-
2500J/Kg of MUCAPE. Storms will weaken by Saturday morning with dry
conditions expected on the day Saturday. highs Saturday will be in
the mid 80s to around 90. Saturday evening a shortwave will begin to
drop through the northern Plains with an associated cold front.
storms area expected to develop north of the area during the late
afternoon/evening. These storms will move southeastward into the
area Saturday night and potentially grow upscale into an MCS as a 30-
35kt LLJ gets cranked up. There is potential for damaging winds,
mainly across northern Missouri, if the storms become organized.

Sunday through Monday:

There may be residual left over showers and thunderstorms over the
area Sunday morning associated with the decaying MCS however, Sunday
does look to dry out. This drying looks to continue on Monday as
highs remain seasonable in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Monday night through Thursday:

Model disagreement during this timeframe leads to a large degree in
uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS maintains a persistent pattern
through this period with the upper level ridge over the Rockies and
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
This leaves the local area in a warm but active pattern under
northwest flow aloft. The EC on the otherhand depicts a strong upper
level shortwave trough moving into the southwestern CONUS on Monday
and flattening the upper trough over the western CONUS leading to a
less amplified pattern. This would keep the area a little cooler and
drier until Tuesday/Tuesday night when the aforementioned shortwave
trough moves into the local area. With such discrepancies in larger
scale features have maintained POPs/temps inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DENSE FOG IS PROVIDING VLIFR CIGS/VIS AT STJ THIS MORNING OTRW...VFR
CONDS ARE PREVAILING. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT STJ THRU
13Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BTN 13Z-14Z. EXPECT JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. DENSE FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT STJ AFT 07Z REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDS.
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE LGT AND VRB PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
BTN 4-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECMG LGT AND VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73



000
FXUS63 KEAX 301044
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
544 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Today through Friday:

Conditions through Friday continue to look dry and seasonable. This
is thanks in part to a elongated upper level ridge covering most of
the southern CONUS today. The other part will be the surface ridge
of high pressure that will be acting to keep the area dry. Highs
today will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Tonight in Friday we will
begin to experience a shift in the upper level pattern as the upper
level ridge begins to retrograde westward and begins to build over
the Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on the
lee side of the upper ridge. Surface high pressure will remain in
control over the local area through Friday keeping conditions dry
with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Friday night through Saturday night:

Friday night an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will
send a cold front towards the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop north of the area in the late afternoon/evening with peak
daytime instability. These storms will then sink south into northern
Missouri Friday night. With weak forcing, and weak shear, widely
scattered storms are not expected to be severe even despite 1500-
2500J/Kg of MUCAPE. Storms will weaken by Saturday morning with dry
conditions expected on the day Saturday. highs Saturday will be in
the mid 80s to around 90. Saturday evening a shortwave will begin to
drop through the northern Plains with an associated cold front.
storms area expected to develop north of the area during the late
afternoon/evening. These storms will move southeastward into the
area Saturday night and potentially grow upscale into an MCS as a 30-
35kt LLJ gets cranked up. There is potential for damaging winds,
mainly across northern Missouri, if the storms become organized.

Sunday through Monday:

There may be residual left over showers and thunderstorms over the
area Sunday morning associated with the decaying MCS however, Sunday
does look to dry out. This drying looks to continue on Monday as
highs remain seasonable in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Monday night through Thursday:

Model disagreement during this timeframe leads to a large degree in
uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS maintains a persistent pattern
through this period with the upper level ridge over the Rockies and
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
This leaves the local area in a warm but active pattern under
northwest flow aloft. The EC on the otherhand depicts a strong upper
level shortwave trough moving into the southwestern CONUS on Monday
and flattening the upper trough over the western CONUS leading to a
less amplified pattern. This would keep the area a little cooler and
drier until Tuesday/Tuesday night when the aforementioned shortwave
trough moves into the local area. With such discrepancies in larger
scale features have maintained POPs/temps inherited by the
initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DENSE FOG IS PROVIDING VLIFR CIGS/VIS AT STJ THIS MORNING OTRW...VFR
CONDS ARE PREVAILING. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT STJ THRU
13Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BTN 13Z-14Z. EXPECT JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. DENSE FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT STJ AFT 07Z REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR CONDS.
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE LGT AND VRB PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
BTN 4-7KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECMG LGT AND VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 300828
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Today through Friday:

Conditions through Friday continue to look dry and seasonable. This
is thanks in part to a elongated upper level ridge covering most of
the southern CONUS today. The other part will be the surface ridge
of high pressure that will be acting to keep the area dry. Highs
today will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Tonight in Friday we will
begin to experience a shift in the upper level pattern as the upper
level ridge begins to retrograde westward and begins to build over
the Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on the
lee side of the upper ridge. Surface high pressure will remain in
control over the local area through Friday keeping conditions dry
with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Friday night through Saturday night:

Friday night an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will
send a cold front towards the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop north of the area in the late afternoon/evening with peak
daytime instability. These storms will then sink south into northern
Missouri Friday night. With weak forcing, and weak shear, widely
scattered storms are not expected to be severe even despite 1500-
2500J/Kg of MUCAPE. Storms will weaken by Saturday morning with dry
conditions expected on the day Saturday. highs Saturday will be in
the mid 80s to around 90. Saturday evening a shortwave will begin to
drop through the northern Plains with an associated cold front.
storms area expected to develop north of the area during the late
afternoon/evening. These storms will move southeastward into the
area Saturday night and potentially grow upscale into an MCS as a 30-
35kt LLJ gets cranked up. There is potential for damaging winds,
mainly across northern Missouri, if the storms become organized.

Sunday through Monday:

There may be residual left over showers and thunderstorms over the
area Sunday morning associated with the decaying MCS however, Sunday
does look to dry out. This drying looks to continue on Monday as
highs remain seasonable in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Monday night through Thursday:

Model disagreement during this timeframe leads to a large degree in
uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS maintains a persistent pattern
through this period with the upper level ridge over the Rockies and
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
This leaves the local area in a warm but active pattern under
northwest flow aloft. The EC on the otherhand depicts a strong upper
level shortwave trough moving into the southwestern CONUS on Monday
and flattening the upper trough over the western CONUS leading to a
less amplified pattern. This would keep the area a little cooler and
drier until Tuesday/Tuesday night when the aforementioned shortwave
trough moves into the local area. With such discrepancies in larger
scale features have maintained POPs/temps inherited by the
initialization.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure
tracks through the region. This will result in only high level clouds
as well as light and variable winds. For STJ, there may be some river
valley fog around sunrise.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 300828
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Today through Friday:

Conditions through Friday continue to look dry and seasonable. This
is thanks in part to a elongated upper level ridge covering most of
the southern CONUS today. The other part will be the surface ridge
of high pressure that will be acting to keep the area dry. Highs
today will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Tonight in Friday we will
begin to experience a shift in the upper level pattern as the upper
level ridge begins to retrograde westward and begins to build over
the Rockies. This will leave the area under northwest flow on the
lee side of the upper ridge. Surface high pressure will remain in
control over the local area through Friday keeping conditions dry
with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Friday night through Saturday night:

Friday night an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will
send a cold front towards the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop north of the area in the late afternoon/evening with peak
daytime instability. These storms will then sink south into northern
Missouri Friday night. With weak forcing, and weak shear, widely
scattered storms are not expected to be severe even despite 1500-
2500J/Kg of MUCAPE. Storms will weaken by Saturday morning with dry
conditions expected on the day Saturday. highs Saturday will be in
the mid 80s to around 90. Saturday evening a shortwave will begin to
drop through the northern Plains with an associated cold front.
storms area expected to develop north of the area during the late
afternoon/evening. These storms will move southeastward into the
area Saturday night and potentially grow upscale into an MCS as a 30-
35kt LLJ gets cranked up. There is potential for damaging winds,
mainly across northern Missouri, if the storms become organized.

Sunday through Monday:

There may be residual left over showers and thunderstorms over the
area Sunday morning associated with the decaying MCS however, Sunday
does look to dry out. This drying looks to continue on Monday as
highs remain seasonable in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Monday night through Thursday:

Model disagreement during this timeframe leads to a large degree in
uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS maintains a persistent pattern
through this period with the upper level ridge over the Rockies and
upper level troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
This leaves the local area in a warm but active pattern under
northwest flow aloft. The EC on the otherhand depicts a strong upper
level shortwave trough moving into the southwestern CONUS on Monday
and flattening the upper trough over the western CONUS leading to a
less amplified pattern. This would keep the area a little cooler and
drier until Tuesday/Tuesday night when the aforementioned shortwave
trough moves into the local area. With such discrepancies in larger
scale features have maintained POPs/temps inherited by the
initialization.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure
tracks through the region. This will result in only high level clouds
as well as light and variable winds. For STJ, there may be some river
valley fog around sunrise.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KLSX 300824
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS OOZED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT
COOLER...THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE HAS BEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WHICH
HAVE DROPPED 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR STEAMY LEVELS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...PRIMARILY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS M0VED THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCIKES TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WITH DRIER AIR. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  66 /   5   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  66  91  67 /   5   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  89  67 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 300824
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS OOZED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT
COOLER...THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE HAS BEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WHICH
HAVE DROPPED 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR STEAMY LEVELS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...PRIMARILY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS M0VED THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCIKES TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WITH DRIER AIR. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  66 /   5   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  66  91  67 /   5   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  89  67 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 300815
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS M0VED THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCIKES TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WITH DRIER AIR. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  66 /   5   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  66  91  67 /   5   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  89  67 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 300815
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS M0VED THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCIKES TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WITH DRIER AIR. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  66 /   5   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  66  91  67 /   5   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  89  67 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KSGF 300746
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions expected through the taf
period. Some mid and high level moisture in the wake of the cold
front has manifested itself into a scattered to broken deck of
clouds in the 5K-8K foot range over the taf sites this evening.
Expect these to persist through much of the night before settling
south of the area Thursday morning as drier air continues to
advect in from the north. With just some higher clouds expected
from late morning on and generally light easterly winds below 10
knots.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300746
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions expected through the taf
period. Some mid and high level moisture in the wake of the cold
front has manifested itself into a scattered to broken deck of
clouds in the 5K-8K foot range over the taf sites this evening.
Expect these to persist through much of the night before settling
south of the area Thursday morning as drier air continues to
advect in from the north. With just some higher clouds expected
from late morning on and generally light easterly winds below 10
knots.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300746
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions expected through the taf
period. Some mid and high level moisture in the wake of the cold
front has manifested itself into a scattered to broken deck of
clouds in the 5K-8K foot range over the taf sites this evening.
Expect these to persist through much of the night before settling
south of the area Thursday morning as drier air continues to
advect in from the north. With just some higher clouds expected
from late morning on and generally light easterly winds below 10
knots.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300746
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Of minor concern is a shortwave over southern KS/northern OK
producing some weak lift along an elevated frontal/baroclinic
zone. Has been more mid level clouds than anything else so far.
HRRR has been a little overdone, but it and some other guidance
try to spread a few showers east into our far west and southwest
cwfa over the next few hours. For now will keep the forecast
essentially dry and watch trends. Either way, it won`t amount to
much and any activity will be short lived early in the morning.

Otherwise it is looking like quiet/good weather today with weak
sfc high pressure moving into the area. Went close to a blend of
guidance for temperatures/dew points. Actually high temperatures
today and the next few days will pretty close to normal, but dew
points/humidity and overnight lows will be lower and more
comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

An amplifying western CONUS ridge will put our region in a nw
upper level flow pattern, but at least through Monday there aren`t any
strong signals for significant synoptic scale shortwaves and
precip. The GFS and ECMWF do develop an MCS over eastern
NEB/SD/IA late Sat/Sat night, but weaken the convection as it
moves southeast Sunday morning.

By Mon/Tue/Wed there is quite a difference between the GFS and
ECMWF guidance regarding large scale features over the western
and central CONUS. The ECMWF moves a subtropical shortwave
northeast into the central Rockies by late Mon really knocking
down the upper ridge, while the GFS keeps the highly amplified
western ridge in place. The GEM is closer to the ECMWF versus the
GFS but with significant placement differences. Split the
difference with some low pops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions expected through the taf
period. Some mid and high level moisture in the wake of the cold
front has manifested itself into a scattered to broken deck of
clouds in the 5K-8K foot range over the taf sites this evening.
Expect these to persist through much of the night before settling
south of the area Thursday morning as drier air continues to
advect in from the north. With just some higher clouds expected
from late morning on and generally light easterly winds below 10
knots.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no
convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM
located roughly along southern Missouri`s Highway 60 corridor.

The airmass is still capped as the RUC40 is showing a corridor of
25 j/kg of mixed layer inhibition along the front. We can not rule
out scattered thunderstorm development this evening and overnight,
therefore we kept some minor pops going. The better signal appears
to be over southeast Kansas and western Missouri, but even this
area is questionable.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s in most locations,
with low 70s expected near the Arkansas border.

For Thursday, some lingering showers will be possible early in the
morning, then clearing up completely by mid day. Look for
fantastic weather with highs in the 80s. The air will feel much
more comfortable with less humidity expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

The long term forecast looks very dry as the Ozarks remains
positioned under northwest flow. This pattern will offer
temperatures very close to seasonal normals.

Highs Friday and into the weekend will range from the upper 80s to
around 92 degrees on an afternoon basis. Overnight lows will fall
into the 60s and low 70s.

By Monday we start to heat up once again as height rises build in
from the western ridge. Heat indices will range from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Some minor
precipitation chances will be needed with the increase in moisture
levels, and the possibility of a frontal boundary lingering around
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions expected through the taf
period. Some mid and high level moisture in the wake of the cold
front has manifested itself into a scattered to broken deck of
clouds in the 5K-8K foot range over the taf sites this evening.
Expect these to persist through much of the night before settling
south of the area Thursday morning as drier air continues to
advect in from the north. With just some higher clouds expected
from late morning on and generally light easterly winds below 10
knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no
convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM
located roughly along southern Missouri`s Highway 60 corridor.

The airmass is still capped as the RUC40 is showing a corridor of
25 j/kg of mixed layer inhibition along the front. We can not rule
out scattered thunderstorm development this evening and overnight,
therefore we kept some minor pops going. The better signal appears
to be over southeast Kansas and western Missouri, but even this
area is questionable.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s in most locations,
with low 70s expected near the Arkansas border.

For Thursday, some lingering showers will be possible early in the
morning, then clearing up completely by mid day. Look for
fantastic weather with highs in the 80s. The air will feel much
more comfortable with less humidity expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

The long term forecast looks very dry as the Ozarks remains
positioned under northwest flow. This pattern will offer
temperatures very close to seasonal normals.

Highs Friday and into the weekend will range from the upper 80s to
around 92 degrees on an afternoon basis. Overnight lows will fall
into the 60s and low 70s.

By Monday we start to heat up once again as height rises build in
from the western ridge. Heat indices will range from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Some minor
precipitation chances will be needed with the increase in moisture
levels, and the possibility of a frontal boundary lingering around
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions expected through the taf
period. Some mid and high level moisture in the wake of the cold
front has manifested itself into a scattered to broken deck of
clouds in the 5K-8K foot range over the taf sites this evening.
Expect these to persist through much of the night before settling
south of the area Thursday morning as drier air continues to
advect in from the north. With just some higher clouds expected
from late morning on and generally light easterly winds below 10
knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KEAX 300436
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Post-frontal activity has diminished over the CWA as the cold front
continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas. Behind the boundary, northeasterly winds will continue
bring dry air into the region as surface high pressure moves in from
the northwest. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to
mid 60`s, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the
next few days. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80`s Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday, gradually increasing to the upper 80`s by
Friday.

A shortwave trough on the periphery of the southern ridge axis will
trigger convective activity over central Kansas and southern
Missouri on Thursday. Surface high pressure should keep this
development out of the area, though the extreme southern CWA could
see thunderstorm development Thursday morning. A deepening trough
currently positioned over southwest Ontario and extending south into
the Northern Plains will continue to undergo development through the
end of the work week. This in turn, will cause the ridge over the
Southern Plains to retrograde by Friday evening, bringing northwest
flow over the CWA once again. As the upper-level trough moves
southeast near the Great Lakes, a cold front will approach northern
Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. This could trigger
convection during the overnight hours, though models are in
disagreement with the southern extent of the frontal boundary. With
existing saturated surface conditions, flooding issues over northern
Missouri could become an issue. However, dry air near the surface
and below the mid-levels should help to mitigate any flooding
potential along this frontal boundary. As the weekend progresses,
additional convective activity is possible as several shortwave
features affect the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

The start of the weekend should continue to be benign as compared to
recent patterns and trends, although model discrepancies are
becoming evident from the start of the long-term, particularly in
the lower third of the atmosphere. What can be agreed upon is
general northwesterly flow aloft with perturbations running through
the overall flow. Additionally, does appear that a frontal boundary
will provide a focus for convection chances early next week with
unsettled weather returning in general by the middle of next week.
Models really disagree at the end of this forecast period with the
upper-level pattern but are fairly consistent in showing the
unsettled weather chances between each other as convection fires up
along the periphery of ridging.

As for temperatures, they will be rather seasonable with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. At
this time, there is no clear indication that the humidity/dewpoints
will drive afternoon heat indices back up to where they`ve been in
recent weeks but it is still too far out to have decent confidence
in those details. Moisture return looks meager compared to past
events, with hints of PWATs remaining closer toward seasonal
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure
tracks through the region. This will result in only high level clouds
as well as light and variable winds. For STJ, there may be some river
valley fog around sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KSGF 292335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no
convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM
located roughly along southern Missouri`s Highway 60 corridor.

The airmass is still capped as the RUC40 is showing a corridor of
25 j/kg of mixed layer inhibition along the front. We can not rule
out scattered thunderstorm development this evening and overnight,
therefore we kept some minor pops going. The better signal appears
to be over southeast Kansas and western Missouri, but even this
area is questionable.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s in most locations,
with low 70s expected near the Arkansas border.

For Thursday, some lingering showers will be possible early in the
morning, then clearing up completely by mid day. Look for
fantastic weather with highs in the 80s. The air will feel much
more comfortable with less humidity expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

The long term forecast looks very dry as the Ozarks remains
positioned under northwest flow. This pattern will offer
temperatures very close to seasonal normals.

Highs Friday and into the weekend will range from the upper 80s to
around 92 degrees on an afternoon basis. Overnight lows will fall
into the 60s and low 70s.

By Monday we start to heat up once again as height rises build in
from the western ridge. Heat indices will range from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Some minor
precipitation chances will be needed with the increase in moisture
levels, and the possibility of a frontal boundary lingering around
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Cold front moving across far southern
Missouri late this afternoon. Winds have shifted to the northeast at
KSGF and KJLN and a light northwest wind at KBBG will shift more
northeast by early evening. Visible satellite imagery shows
diminishing cumulus field along the boundary. Have been some
isolated cells develop along the front, but with some convective
inhibition they only last a very short time. Expect the
possibility of an isolated shower at KBBG through about 04Z.
Otherwise drier low level filters in overnight with VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period and winds under 10 knots after
sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 292335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no
convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM
located roughly along southern Missouri`s Highway 60 corridor.

The airmass is still capped as the RUC40 is showing a corridor of
25 j/kg of mixed layer inhibition along the front. We can not rule
out scattered thunderstorm development this evening and overnight,
therefore we kept some minor pops going. The better signal appears
to be over southeast Kansas and western Missouri, but even this
area is questionable.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s in most locations,
with low 70s expected near the Arkansas border.

For Thursday, some lingering showers will be possible early in the
morning, then clearing up completely by mid day. Look for
fantastic weather with highs in the 80s. The air will feel much
more comfortable with less humidity expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

The long term forecast looks very dry as the Ozarks remains
positioned under northwest flow. This pattern will offer
temperatures very close to seasonal normals.

Highs Friday and into the weekend will range from the upper 80s to
around 92 degrees on an afternoon basis. Overnight lows will fall
into the 60s and low 70s.

By Monday we start to heat up once again as height rises build in
from the western ridge. Heat indices will range from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Some minor
precipitation chances will be needed with the increase in moisture
levels, and the possibility of a frontal boundary lingering around
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Cold front moving across far southern
Missouri late this afternoon. Winds have shifted to the northeast at
KSGF and KJLN and a light northwest wind at KBBG will shift more
northeast by early evening. Visible satellite imagery shows
diminishing cumulus field along the boundary. Have been some
isolated cells develop along the front, but with some convective
inhibition they only last a very short time. Expect the
possibility of an isolated shower at KBBG through about 04Z.
Otherwise drier low level filters in overnight with VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period and winds under 10 knots after
sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 292335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no
convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM
located roughly along southern Missouri`s Highway 60 corridor.

The airmass is still capped as the RUC40 is showing a corridor of
25 j/kg of mixed layer inhibition along the front. We can not rule
out scattered thunderstorm development this evening and overnight,
therefore we kept some minor pops going. The better signal appears
to be over southeast Kansas and western Missouri, but even this
area is questionable.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s in most locations,
with low 70s expected near the Arkansas border.

For Thursday, some lingering showers will be possible early in the
morning, then clearing up completely by mid day. Look for
fantastic weather with highs in the 80s. The air will feel much
more comfortable with less humidity expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

The long term forecast looks very dry as the Ozarks remains
positioned under northwest flow. This pattern will offer
temperatures very close to seasonal normals.

Highs Friday and into the weekend will range from the upper 80s to
around 92 degrees on an afternoon basis. Overnight lows will fall
into the 60s and low 70s.

By Monday we start to heat up once again as height rises build in
from the western ridge. Heat indices will range from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Some minor
precipitation chances will be needed with the increase in moisture
levels, and the possibility of a frontal boundary lingering around
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Cold front moving across far southern
Missouri late this afternoon. Winds have shifted to the northeast at
KSGF and KJLN and a light northwest wind at KBBG will shift more
northeast by early evening. Visible satellite imagery shows
diminishing cumulus field along the boundary. Have been some
isolated cells develop along the front, but with some convective
inhibition they only last a very short time. Expect the
possibility of an isolated shower at KBBG through about 04Z.
Otherwise drier low level filters in overnight with VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period and winds under 10 knots after
sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 292335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no
convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM
located roughly along southern Missouri`s Highway 60 corridor.

The airmass is still capped as the RUC40 is showing a corridor of
25 j/kg of mixed layer inhibition along the front. We can not rule
out scattered thunderstorm development this evening and overnight,
therefore we kept some minor pops going. The better signal appears
to be over southeast Kansas and western Missouri, but even this
area is questionable.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s in most locations,
with low 70s expected near the Arkansas border.

For Thursday, some lingering showers will be possible early in the
morning, then clearing up completely by mid day. Look for
fantastic weather with highs in the 80s. The air will feel much
more comfortable with less humidity expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

The long term forecast looks very dry as the Ozarks remains
positioned under northwest flow. This pattern will offer
temperatures very close to seasonal normals.

Highs Friday and into the weekend will range from the upper 80s to
around 92 degrees on an afternoon basis. Overnight lows will fall
into the 60s and low 70s.

By Monday we start to heat up once again as height rises build in
from the western ridge. Heat indices will range from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Some minor
precipitation chances will be needed with the increase in moisture
levels, and the possibility of a frontal boundary lingering around
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Cold front moving across far southern
Missouri late this afternoon. Winds have shifted to the northeast at
KSGF and KJLN and a light northwest wind at KBBG will shift more
northeast by early evening. Visible satellite imagery shows
diminishing cumulus field along the boundary. Have been some
isolated cells develop along the front, but with some convective
inhibition they only last a very short time. Expect the
possibility of an isolated shower at KBBG through about 04Z.
Otherwise drier low level filters in overnight with VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period and winds under 10 knots after
sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Post-frontal activity has diminished over the CWA as the cold front
continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas. Behind the boundary, northeasterly winds will continue
bring dry air into the region as surface high pressure moves in from
the northwest. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to
mid 60`s, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the
next few days. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80`s Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday, gradually increasing to the upper 80`s by
Friday.

A shortwave trough on the periphery of the southern ridge axis will
trigger convective activity over central Kansas and southern
Missouri on Thursday. Surface high pressure should keep this
development out of the area, though the extreme southern CWA could
see thunderstorm development Thursday morning. A deepening trough
currently positioned over southwest Ontario and extending south into
the Northern Plains will continue to undergo development through the
end of the work week. This in turn, will cause the ridge over the
Southern Plains to retrograde by Friday evening, bringing northwest
flow over the CWA once again. As the upper-level trough moves
southeast near the Great Lakes, a cold front will approach northern
Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. This could trigger
convection during the overnight hours, though models are in
disagreement with the southern extent of the frontal boundary. With
existing saturated surface conditions, flooding issues over northern
Missouri could become an issue. However, dry air near the surface
and below the mid-levels should help to mitigate any flooding
potential along this frontal boundary. As the weekend progresses,
additional convective activity is possible as several shortwave
features affect the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

The start of the weekend should continue to be benign as compared to
recent patterns and trends, although model discrepancies are
becoming evident from the start of the long-term, particularly in
the lower third of the atmosphere. What can be agreed upon is
general northwesterly flow aloft with perturbations running through
the overall flow. Additionally, does appear that a frontal boundary
will provide a focus for convection chances early next week with
unsettled weather returning in general by the middle of next week.
Models really disagree at the end of this forecast period with the
upper-level pattern but are fairly consistent in showing the
unsettled weather chances between each other as convection fires up
along the periphery of ridging.

As for temperatures, they will be rather seasonable with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. At
this time, there is no clear indication that the humidity/dewpoints
will drive afternoon heat indices back up to where they`ve been in
recent weeks but it is still too far out to have decent confidence
in those details. Moisture return looks meager compared to past
events, with hints of PWATs remaining closer toward seasonal
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR conditions expected at the Kansas City terminals as high pressure
moves through the area tonight and through the day tomorrow. Only
high level clouds are expected to spread of the terminals. This will
keep winds light and variable overnight but as the high begins to
shift to the east tomorrow, winds may become light from south.

For the STJ terminal, cool overnight lows with light winds may help
to induce river valley fog so have lowered visibility to 3 SM to
account for this possibility.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 292334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Post-frontal activity has diminished over the CWA as the cold front
continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas. Behind the boundary, northeasterly winds will continue
bring dry air into the region as surface high pressure moves in from
the northwest. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to
mid 60`s, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the
next few days. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80`s Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday, gradually increasing to the upper 80`s by
Friday.

A shortwave trough on the periphery of the southern ridge axis will
trigger convective activity over central Kansas and southern
Missouri on Thursday. Surface high pressure should keep this
development out of the area, though the extreme southern CWA could
see thunderstorm development Thursday morning. A deepening trough
currently positioned over southwest Ontario and extending south into
the Northern Plains will continue to undergo development through the
end of the work week. This in turn, will cause the ridge over the
Southern Plains to retrograde by Friday evening, bringing northwest
flow over the CWA once again. As the upper-level trough moves
southeast near the Great Lakes, a cold front will approach northern
Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. This could trigger
convection during the overnight hours, though models are in
disagreement with the southern extent of the frontal boundary. With
existing saturated surface conditions, flooding issues over northern
Missouri could become an issue. However, dry air near the surface
and below the mid-levels should help to mitigate any flooding
potential along this frontal boundary. As the weekend progresses,
additional convective activity is possible as several shortwave
features affect the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

The start of the weekend should continue to be benign as compared to
recent patterns and trends, although model discrepancies are
becoming evident from the start of the long-term, particularly in
the lower third of the atmosphere. What can be agreed upon is
general northwesterly flow aloft with perturbations running through
the overall flow. Additionally, does appear that a frontal boundary
will provide a focus for convection chances early next week with
unsettled weather returning in general by the middle of next week.
Models really disagree at the end of this forecast period with the
upper-level pattern but are fairly consistent in showing the
unsettled weather chances between each other as convection fires up
along the periphery of ridging.

As for temperatures, they will be rather seasonable with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. At
this time, there is no clear indication that the humidity/dewpoints
will drive afternoon heat indices back up to where they`ve been in
recent weeks but it is still too far out to have decent confidence
in those details. Moisture return looks meager compared to past
events, with hints of PWATs remaining closer toward seasonal
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR conditions expected at the Kansas City terminals as high pressure
moves through the area tonight and through the day tomorrow. Only
high level clouds are expected to spread of the terminals. This will
keep winds light and variable overnight but as the high begins to
shift to the east tomorrow, winds may become light from south.

For the STJ terminal, cool overnight lows with light winds may help
to induce river valley fog so have lowered visibility to 3 SM to
account for this possibility.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 292334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Post-frontal activity has diminished over the CWA as the cold front
continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas. Behind the boundary, northeasterly winds will continue
bring dry air into the region as surface high pressure moves in from
the northwest. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to
mid 60`s, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the
next few days. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80`s Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday, gradually increasing to the upper 80`s by
Friday.

A shortwave trough on the periphery of the southern ridge axis will
trigger convective activity over central Kansas and southern
Missouri on Thursday. Surface high pressure should keep this
development out of the area, though the extreme southern CWA could
see thunderstorm development Thursday morning. A deepening trough
currently positioned over southwest Ontario and extending south into
the Northern Plains will continue to undergo development through the
end of the work week. This in turn, will cause the ridge over the
Southern Plains to retrograde by Friday evening, bringing northwest
flow over the CWA once again. As the upper-level trough moves
southeast near the Great Lakes, a cold front will approach northern
Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. This could trigger
convection during the overnight hours, though models are in
disagreement with the southern extent of the frontal boundary. With
existing saturated surface conditions, flooding issues over northern
Missouri could become an issue. However, dry air near the surface
and below the mid-levels should help to mitigate any flooding
potential along this frontal boundary. As the weekend progresses,
additional convective activity is possible as several shortwave
features affect the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

The start of the weekend should continue to be benign as compared to
recent patterns and trends, although model discrepancies are
becoming evident from the start of the long-term, particularly in
the lower third of the atmosphere. What can be agreed upon is
general northwesterly flow aloft with perturbations running through
the overall flow. Additionally, does appear that a frontal boundary
will provide a focus for convection chances early next week with
unsettled weather returning in general by the middle of next week.
Models really disagree at the end of this forecast period with the
upper-level pattern but are fairly consistent in showing the
unsettled weather chances between each other as convection fires up
along the periphery of ridging.

As for temperatures, they will be rather seasonable with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. At
this time, there is no clear indication that the humidity/dewpoints
will drive afternoon heat indices back up to where they`ve been in
recent weeks but it is still too far out to have decent confidence
in those details. Moisture return looks meager compared to past
events, with hints of PWATs remaining closer toward seasonal
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR conditions expected at the Kansas City terminals as high pressure
moves through the area tonight and through the day tomorrow. Only
high level clouds are expected to spread of the terminals. This will
keep winds light and variable overnight but as the high begins to
shift to the east tomorrow, winds may become light from south.

For the STJ terminal, cool overnight lows with light winds may help
to induce river valley fog so have lowered visibility to 3 SM to
account for this possibility.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 292334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Post-frontal activity has diminished over the CWA as the cold front
continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas. Behind the boundary, northeasterly winds will continue
bring dry air into the region as surface high pressure moves in from
the northwest. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to
mid 60`s, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the
next few days. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80`s Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday, gradually increasing to the upper 80`s by
Friday.

A shortwave trough on the periphery of the southern ridge axis will
trigger convective activity over central Kansas and southern
Missouri on Thursday. Surface high pressure should keep this
development out of the area, though the extreme southern CWA could
see thunderstorm development Thursday morning. A deepening trough
currently positioned over southwest Ontario and extending south into
the Northern Plains will continue to undergo development through the
end of the work week. This in turn, will cause the ridge over the
Southern Plains to retrograde by Friday evening, bringing northwest
flow over the CWA once again. As the upper-level trough moves
southeast near the Great Lakes, a cold front will approach northern
Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. This could trigger
convection during the overnight hours, though models are in
disagreement with the southern extent of the frontal boundary. With
existing saturated surface conditions, flooding issues over northern
Missouri could become an issue. However, dry air near the surface
and below the mid-levels should help to mitigate any flooding
potential along this frontal boundary. As the weekend progresses,
additional convective activity is possible as several shortwave
features affect the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

The start of the weekend should continue to be benign as compared to
recent patterns and trends, although model discrepancies are
becoming evident from the start of the long-term, particularly in
the lower third of the atmosphere. What can be agreed upon is
general northwesterly flow aloft with perturbations running through
the overall flow. Additionally, does appear that a frontal boundary
will provide a focus for convection chances early next week with
unsettled weather returning in general by the middle of next week.
Models really disagree at the end of this forecast period with the
upper-level pattern but are fairly consistent in showing the
unsettled weather chances between each other as convection fires up
along the periphery of ridging.

As for temperatures, they will be rather seasonable with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. At
this time, there is no clear indication that the humidity/dewpoints
will drive afternoon heat indices back up to where they`ve been in
recent weeks but it is still too far out to have decent confidence
in those details. Moisture return looks meager compared to past
events, with hints of PWATs remaining closer toward seasonal
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR conditions expected at the Kansas City terminals as high pressure
moves through the area tonight and through the day tomorrow. Only
high level clouds are expected to spread of the terminals. This will
keep winds light and variable overnight but as the high begins to
shift to the east tomorrow, winds may become light from south.

For the STJ terminal, cool overnight lows with light winds may help
to induce river valley fog so have lowered visibility to 3 SM to
account for this possibility.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KLSX 292215
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
515 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AIR TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.  HOWEVER, SHOULD HAVE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS
MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER SO WHILE IT WILL STILL BE HOT, IT
SHOULD FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS BAD.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BI-STATE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SO UNLESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CAN RAISE THE DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT MIGHT GO THROUGH DRY.  HOWEVER,
NAM AND GFS ARE PRINTING OUT SOME PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AFTER THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND CONTINUED WARM FORECAST
AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STAY ON THE PERIPHERY, AND CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT WAVERING BETWEEN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS M0VED THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCIKES TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WITH DRIER AIR. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  91  72  91 /   5   0   0  10
QUINCY          65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBIA        67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
SALEM           67  89  67  89 /  10   0   0  10
FARMINGTON      68  89  65  89 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 292215
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
515 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AIR TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.  HOWEVER, SHOULD HAVE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS
MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER SO WHILE IT WILL STILL BE HOT, IT
SHOULD FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS BAD.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BI-STATE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SO UNLESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CAN RAISE THE DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT MIGHT GO THROUGH DRY.  HOWEVER,
NAM AND GFS ARE PRINTING OUT SOME PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AFTER THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND CONTINUED WARM FORECAST
AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STAY ON THE PERIPHERY, AND CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT WAVERING BETWEEN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS M0VED THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCIKES TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WITH DRIER AIR. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  91  72  91 /   5   0   0  10
QUINCY          65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBIA        67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
SALEM           67  89  67  89 /  10   0   0  10
FARMINGTON      68  89  65  89 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 292054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Post-frontal activity has diminished over the CWA as the cold front
continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas. Behind the boundary, northeasterly winds will continue
bring dry air into the region as surface high pressure moves in from
the northwest. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to
mid 60`s, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the
next few days. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80`s Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday, gradually increasing to the upper 80`s by
Friday.

A shortwave trough on the periphery of the southern ridge axis will
trigger convective activity over central Kansas and southern
Missouri on Thursday. Surface high pressure should keep this
development out of the area, though the extreme southern CWA could
see thunderstorm development Thursday morning. A deepening trough
currently positioned over southwest Ontario and extending south into
the Northern Plains will continue to undergo development through the
end of the work week. This in turn, will cause the ridge over the
Southern Plains to retrograde by Friday evening, bringing northwest
flow over the CWA once again. As the upper-level trough moves
southeast near the Great Lakes, a cold front will approach northern
Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. This could trigger
convection during the overnight hours, though models are in
disagreement with the southern extent of the frontal boundary. With
existing saturated surface conditions, flooding issues over northern
Missouri could become an issue. However, dry air near the surface
and below the mid-levels should help to mitigate any flooding
potential along this frontal boundary. As the weekend progresses,
additional convective activity is possible as several shortwave
features affect the area.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

The start of the weekend should continue to be benign as compared to
recent patterns and trends, although model discrepancies are
becoming evident from the start of the long-term, particularly in
the lower third of the atmosphere. What can be agreed upon is
general northwesterly flow aloft with perturbations running through
the overall flow. Additionally, does appear that a frontal boundary
will provide a focus for convection chances early next week with
unsettled weather returning in general by the middle of next week.
Models really disagree at the end of this forecast period with the
upper-level pattern but are fairly consistent in showing the
unsettled weather chances between each other as convection fires up
along the periphery of ridging.

As for temperatures, they will be rather seasonable with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. At
this time, there is no clear indication that the humidity/dewpoints
will drive afternoon heat indices back up to where they`ve been in
recent weeks but it is still too far out to have decent confidence
in those details. Moisture return looks meager compared to past
events, with hints of PWATs remaining closer toward seasonal
climatology.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the southwest by the
end of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 292054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Post-frontal activity has diminished over the CWA as the cold front
continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas. Behind the boundary, northeasterly winds will continue
bring dry air into the region as surface high pressure moves in from
the northwest. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to
mid 60`s, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the
next few days. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80`s Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday, gradually increasing to the upper 80`s by
Friday.

A shortwave trough on the periphery of the southern ridge axis will
trigger convective activity over central Kansas and southern
Missouri on Thursday. Surface high pressure should keep this
development out of the area, though the extreme southern CWA could
see thunderstorm development Thursday morning. A deepening trough
currently positioned over southwest Ontario and extending south into
the Northern Plains will continue to undergo development through the
end of the work week. This in turn, will cause the ridge over the
Southern Plains to retrograde by Friday evening, bringing northwest
flow over the CWA once again. As the upper-level trough moves
southeast near the Great Lakes, a cold front will approach northern
Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. This could trigger
convection during the overnight hours, though models are in
disagreement with the southern extent of the frontal boundary. With
existing saturated surface conditions, flooding issues over northern
Missouri could become an issue. However, dry air near the surface
and below the mid-levels should help to mitigate any flooding
potential along this frontal boundary. As the weekend progresses,
additional convective activity is possible as several shortwave
features affect the area.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

The start of the weekend should continue to be benign as compared to
recent patterns and trends, although model discrepancies are
becoming evident from the start of the long-term, particularly in
the lower third of the atmosphere. What can be agreed upon is
general northwesterly flow aloft with perturbations running through
the overall flow. Additionally, does appear that a frontal boundary
will provide a focus for convection chances early next week with
unsettled weather returning in general by the middle of next week.
Models really disagree at the end of this forecast period with the
upper-level pattern but are fairly consistent in showing the
unsettled weather chances between each other as convection fires up
along the periphery of ridging.

As for temperatures, they will be rather seasonable with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. At
this time, there is no clear indication that the humidity/dewpoints
will drive afternoon heat indices back up to where they`ve been in
recent weeks but it is still too far out to have decent confidence
in those details. Moisture return looks meager compared to past
events, with hints of PWATs remaining closer toward seasonal
climatology.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the southwest by the
end of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KLSX 292052
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AIR TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.  HOWEVER, SHOULD HAVE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS
MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER SO WHILE IT WILL STILL BE HOT, IT
SHOULD FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS BAD.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BI-STATE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SO UNLESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CAN RAISE THE DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT MIGHT GO THROUGH DRY.  HOWEVER,
NAM AND GFS ARE PRINTING OUT SOME PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AFTER THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND CONTINUED WARM FORECAST
AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STAY ON THE PERIPHERY, AND CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT WAVERING BETWEEN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  91  72  91 /   5   0   0  10
QUINCY          65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBIA        67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
SALEM           67  89  67  89 /  10   0   0  10
FARMINGTON      68  89  65  89 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 292052
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AIR TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.  HOWEVER, SHOULD HAVE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS
MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER SO WHILE IT WILL STILL BE HOT, IT
SHOULD FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS BAD.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BI-STATE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SO UNLESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CAN RAISE THE DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT MIGHT GO THROUGH DRY.  HOWEVER,
NAM AND GFS ARE PRINTING OUT SOME PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AFTER THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND CONTINUED WARM FORECAST
AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STAY ON THE PERIPHERY, AND CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT WAVERING BETWEEN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  91  72  91 /   5   0   0  10
QUINCY          65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBIA        67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
SALEM           67  89  67  89 /  10   0   0  10
FARMINGTON      68  89  65  89 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 292052
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AIR TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.  HOWEVER, SHOULD HAVE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS
MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER SO WHILE IT WILL STILL BE HOT, IT
SHOULD FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS BAD.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BI-STATE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SO UNLESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CAN RAISE THE DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT MIGHT GO THROUGH DRY.  HOWEVER,
NAM AND GFS ARE PRINTING OUT SOME PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AFTER THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND CONTINUED WARM FORECAST
AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STAY ON THE PERIPHERY, AND CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT WAVERING BETWEEN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  91  72  91 /   5   0   0  10
QUINCY          65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBIA        67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
SALEM           67  89  67  89 /  10   0   0  10
FARMINGTON      68  89  65  89 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 292052
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AIR TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE THAT MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY.  HOWEVER, SHOULD HAVE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS
MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES COOLER SO WHILE IT WILL STILL BE HOT, IT
SHOULD FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS BAD.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BI-STATE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SO UNLESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CAN RAISE THE DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT MIGHT GO THROUGH DRY.  HOWEVER,
NAM AND GFS ARE PRINTING OUT SOME PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AFTER THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND CONTINUED WARM FORECAST
AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STAY ON THE PERIPHERY, AND CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT WAVERING BETWEEN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  91  72  91 /   5   0   0  10
QUINCY          65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBIA        67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
SALEM           67  89  67  89 /  10   0   0  10
FARMINGTON      68  89  65  89 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 292032
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     71  91  72  91 /   5   0   0  10
QUINCY          65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
COLUMBIA        67  89  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
JEFFERSON CITY  67  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
SALEM           67  89  67  89 /  10   0   0  10
FARMINGTON      68  89  65  89 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KSGF 291943
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no
convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM
located roughly along southern Missouri`s Highway 60 corridor.

The airmass is still capped as the RUC40 is showing a corridor of
25 j/kg of mixed layer inhibition along the front. We can not rule
out scattered thunderstorm development this evening and overnight,
therefore we kept some minor pops going. The better signal appears
to be over southeast Kansas and western Missouri, but even this
area is questionable.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s in most locations,
with low 70s expected near the Arkansas border.

For Thursday, some lingering showers will be possible early in the
morning, then clearing up completely by mid day. Look for
fantastic weather with highs in the 80s. The air will feel much
more comfortable with less humidity expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

The long term forecast looks very dry as the Ozarks remains
positioned under northwest flow. This pattern will offer
temperatures very close to seasonal normals.

Highs Friday and into the weekend will range from the upper 80s to
around 92 degrees on an afternoon basis. Overnight lows will fall
into the 60s and low 70s.

By Monday we start to heat up once again as height rises build in
from the western ridge. Heat indices will range from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Some minor
precipitation chances will be needed with the increase in moisture
levels, and the possibility of a frontal boundary lingering around
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Cold front was located near I-44 early this afternoon and will
continue its southward push through early evening across the
southwest MO airports. Will continue vicinity showers/thunderstorms
through the afternoon into early evening as the destabilizing
airmass over the region gets lifted by the front.

After early/mid evening...expect convection to end with frontal
passage and loss of daytime heating.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ082-
     083-096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Terry






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291943
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no
convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM
located roughly along southern Missouri`s Highway 60 corridor.

The airmass is still capped as the RUC40 is showing a corridor of
25 j/kg of mixed layer inhibition along the front. We can not rule
out scattered thunderstorm development this evening and overnight,
therefore we kept some minor pops going. The better signal appears
to be over southeast Kansas and western Missouri, but even this
area is questionable.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s in most locations,
with low 70s expected near the Arkansas border.

For Thursday, some lingering showers will be possible early in the
morning, then clearing up completely by mid day. Look for
fantastic weather with highs in the 80s. The air will feel much
more comfortable with less humidity expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

The long term forecast looks very dry as the Ozarks remains
positioned under northwest flow. This pattern will offer
temperatures very close to seasonal normals.

Highs Friday and into the weekend will range from the upper 80s to
around 92 degrees on an afternoon basis. Overnight lows will fall
into the 60s and low 70s.

By Monday we start to heat up once again as height rises build in
from the western ridge. Heat indices will range from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Some minor
precipitation chances will be needed with the increase in moisture
levels, and the possibility of a frontal boundary lingering around
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Cold front was located near I-44 early this afternoon and will
continue its southward push through early evening across the
southwest MO airports. Will continue vicinity showers/thunderstorms
through the afternoon into early evening as the destabilizing
airmass over the region gets lifted by the front.

After early/mid evening...expect convection to end with frontal
passage and loss of daytime heating.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ082-
     083-096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Terry







000
FXUS63 KLSX 291832
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
132 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES WON`T BE
ACHIEVED TODAY.

CARNEY

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IRON MO-
     MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MARION IL-
     RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 291832
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
132 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES WON`T BE
ACHIEVED TODAY.

CARNEY

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IRON MO-
     MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MARION IL-
     RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 291832
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
132 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES WON`T BE
ACHIEVED TODAY.

CARNEY

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IRON MO-
     MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MARION IL-
     RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 291832
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
132 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES WON`T BE
ACHIEVED TODAY.

CARNEY

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IRON MO-
     MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MARION IL-
     RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 291832
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
132 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES WON`T BE
ACHIEVED TODAY.

CARNEY

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR FCST AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PRD. SFC COLD FRONT IS SOUTH
OF ALL THE TERMINAL AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...ACROSS STHRN IL INTO
SE MO. ISLD CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPNG ALONG THE BNDRY
ACROSS STHRN IL AS OF 18Z...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DVLP TO
THE SW ACROSS SE MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DVLPNG WITHIN THE BAND OF
MVFR CIGS THAT MOVED THRU THE STL METRO TERMINALS. THE SHRAS/TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ALONG WITH THE BNDRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W/WNW BY THU MRNG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FCST THRU THE PRD WITH N WIND THIS AFTN BCMNG W/WNW BY THRU
MRNG. THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTN.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IRON MO-
     MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MARION IL-
     RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 291711
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES WON`T BE
ACHIEVED TODAY.

CARNEY

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT BLANKETED MOST OF S IA AND N MO LATE
YESTERDAY EVENING BECAME OUTFLOW DOMINATED SHORTLY AFTER
05Z...WITH MAIN ELEMENTS DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING SSW WHILE E EDGE
REMAINED Q-STATIONARY BETWEEN KIRK-KUIN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...E EDGE OF THIS DYING PRECIP AREA MAY CLIP
KUIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH CLOUDS AOA 4KFT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO
BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE
FIRST IS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WHICH
APPEARS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH STL AREA ATTM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT. ITS CURRENT LOCATION IS BEING
MASKED BY MESOSCALE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE OVER S CENTRAL/SE IA...AND RAP SUGGESTS IT WILL BE WITH
FRONT NEAR THE STL METRO BY MIDDAY. CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CARRY
CURRENT VCTS AT STL METRO TAF SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF VCTS AT KCOU SINCE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE SCT-
BKN CU 4-5KFT (WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVER NEAR/SOUTH OF COLD
FRONT)...WITH THIS CU FIELD QUICKLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...WITH CU FIELD AOA 4KFT BECOMING SCT-BKN BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED VCTS IN THE 18-21 TIME
FRAME AS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE PASSING AT THAT TIME. CU FIELD
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
A FEW CLOUDS AOA 10KFT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IRON MO-
     MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MARION IL-
     RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 291711
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES WON`T BE
ACHIEVED TODAY.

CARNEY

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT BLANKETED MOST OF S IA AND N MO LATE
YESTERDAY EVENING BECAME OUTFLOW DOMINATED SHORTLY AFTER
05Z...WITH MAIN ELEMENTS DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING SSW WHILE E EDGE
REMAINED Q-STATIONARY BETWEEN KIRK-KUIN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...E EDGE OF THIS DYING PRECIP AREA MAY CLIP
KUIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH CLOUDS AOA 4KFT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO
BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE
FIRST IS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WHICH
APPEARS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH STL AREA ATTM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT. ITS CURRENT LOCATION IS BEING
MASKED BY MESOSCALE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE OVER S CENTRAL/SE IA...AND RAP SUGGESTS IT WILL BE WITH
FRONT NEAR THE STL METRO BY MIDDAY. CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CARRY
CURRENT VCTS AT STL METRO TAF SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF VCTS AT KCOU SINCE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE SCT-
BKN CU 4-5KFT (WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVER NEAR/SOUTH OF COLD
FRONT)...WITH THIS CU FIELD QUICKLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...WITH CU FIELD AOA 4KFT BECOMING SCT-BKN BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED VCTS IN THE 18-21 TIME
FRAME AS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE PASSING AT THAT TIME. CU FIELD
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
A FEW CLOUDS AOA 10KFT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IRON MO-
     MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MARION IL-
     RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KSGF 291705
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Outflow dominant area of convection over northern MO/Northeast KS
is propagating se-ese. Most high res models continue to weaken
this area in the near term as it moves farther south underneath
mid level ridging. Will continue to carry low pops over the northern
cwfa with the outflow boundary pushing into the area early today.

For later today guidance is a mixed bag as the modest sfc
convergence with the true sfc front moves into the region this
afternoon. Winds veer quite a bit over southern MO today prior
to the frontal passage which limits convergence. SREF and global
models redevelop at least some modest qpf this afternoon, while
high res models are nil or close to it. Weakly capped moderate
mean layer instability will exist, so it`s just a question of
whether overall weak forcing mechanisms will be able to produce
some updrafts. A blend of guidance yields slight to low chance
pops with overall better chances over the eastern-southeastern
cwfa this afternoon. Doesn`t look long lived or widespread.

Heat index values will be highest over the southeast cwfa this
afternoon and will continue the heat headlines as is pending any
further collaboration with surrounding offices.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

It finally looks like we will see some overall relief from the
humidity for a period of time.

The sfc front shifts south of the area as sfc high pressure moves
into KS/MO Thursday and the upper level ridge is suppressed back
to the south and southwest. Some elevated late nighttime
convection might spill into the far sw cwfa for early Thursday,
but will go for mostly a dry forecast.

The upper ridge will amplify over the western CONUS late in the week
and this weekend leaving us in a northwest flow pattern without
any major signals for significant shortwaves and precip as weak
sfc high pressure remains nearby. Differences in timing exist
with the next shortwave moving southeast through the region early
next week. We should see dew points creep up a bit late in the
extended period with only very modest pops/rain chances. Better
chances for rain may hold off until just after this forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Cold front was located near I-44 early this afternoon and will
continue its southward push through early evening across the
southwest MO airports. Will continue vicinity showers/thunderstorms
through the afternoon into early evening as the destabilizing
airmass over the region gets lifted by the front.

After early/mid evening...expect convection to end with frontal
passage and loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ082-
     083-096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Terry







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291705
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Outflow dominant area of convection over northern MO/Northeast KS
is propagating se-ese. Most high res models continue to weaken
this area in the near term as it moves farther south underneath
mid level ridging. Will continue to carry low pops over the northern
cwfa with the outflow boundary pushing into the area early today.

For later today guidance is a mixed bag as the modest sfc
convergence with the true sfc front moves into the region this
afternoon. Winds veer quite a bit over southern MO today prior
to the frontal passage which limits convergence. SREF and global
models redevelop at least some modest qpf this afternoon, while
high res models are nil or close to it. Weakly capped moderate
mean layer instability will exist, so it`s just a question of
whether overall weak forcing mechanisms will be able to produce
some updrafts. A blend of guidance yields slight to low chance
pops with overall better chances over the eastern-southeastern
cwfa this afternoon. Doesn`t look long lived or widespread.

Heat index values will be highest over the southeast cwfa this
afternoon and will continue the heat headlines as is pending any
further collaboration with surrounding offices.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

It finally looks like we will see some overall relief from the
humidity for a period of time.

The sfc front shifts south of the area as sfc high pressure moves
into KS/MO Thursday and the upper level ridge is suppressed back
to the south and southwest. Some elevated late nighttime
convection might spill into the far sw cwfa for early Thursday,
but will go for mostly a dry forecast.

The upper ridge will amplify over the western CONUS late in the week
and this weekend leaving us in a northwest flow pattern without
any major signals for significant shortwaves and precip as weak
sfc high pressure remains nearby. Differences in timing exist
with the next shortwave moving southeast through the region early
next week. We should see dew points creep up a bit late in the
extended period with only very modest pops/rain chances. Better
chances for rain may hold off until just after this forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Cold front was located near I-44 early this afternoon and will
continue its southward push through early evening across the
southwest MO airports. Will continue vicinity showers/thunderstorms
through the afternoon into early evening as the destabilizing
airmass over the region gets lifted by the front.

After early/mid evening...expect convection to end with frontal
passage and loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ082-
     083-096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Terry






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291638 CCA
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the southwest by the
end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 291638 CCA
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the southwest by the
end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 291638 CCA
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the southwest by the
end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 291638 CCA
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the southwest by the
end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 291636
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the northwest by the end
of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 291636
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the northwest by the end
of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 291636
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the northwest by the end
of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 291636
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Residual low-level clouds should continue to dissipate as the early
afternoon progresses. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry
through the period as nearby activity continues to diminish. Mid-
level clouds over Kansas should move over the region through the
afternoon, before finally lifting through the evening hours. There is
some potential for MVFR fog development at KSTJ early Thursday,
given the saturated surface coupled with weak winds. Otherwise winds
will vary overnight before picking up out of the northwest by the end
of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KLSX 291202
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT BLANKETED MOST OF S IA AND N MO LATE
YESTERDAY EVENING BECAME OUTFLOW DOMINATED SHORTLY AFTER
05Z...WITH MAIN ELEMENTS DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING SSW WHILE E EDGE
REMAINED Q-STATIONARY BETWEEN KIRK-KUIN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...E EDGE OF THIS DYING PRECIP AREA MAY CLIP
KUIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH CLOUDS AOA 4KFT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO
BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE
FIRST IS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WHICH
APPEARS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH STL AREA ATTM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT. ITS CURRENT LOCATION IS BEING
MASKED BY MESOSCALE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE OVER S CENTRAL/SE IA...AND RAP SUGGESTS IT WILL BE WITH
FRONT NEAR THE STL METRO BY MIDDAY. CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CARRY
CURRENT VCTS AT STL METRO TAF SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF VCTS AT KCOU SINCE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE SCT-
BKN CU 4-5KFT (WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVER NEAR/SOUTH OF COLD
FRONT)...WITH THIS CU FIELD QUICKLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...WITH CU FIELD AOA 4KFT BECOMING SCT-BKN BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED VCTS IN THE 18-21 TIME
FRAME AS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE PASSING AT THAT TIME. CU FIELD
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
A FEW CLOUDS AOA 10KFT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON
     IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 291202
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT BLANKETED MOST OF S IA AND N MO LATE
YESTERDAY EVENING BECAME OUTFLOW DOMINATED SHORTLY AFTER
05Z...WITH MAIN ELEMENTS DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING SSW WHILE E EDGE
REMAINED Q-STATIONARY BETWEEN KIRK-KUIN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...E EDGE OF THIS DYING PRECIP AREA MAY CLIP
KUIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH CLOUDS AOA 4KFT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO
BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE
FIRST IS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WHICH
APPEARS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH STL AREA ATTM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT. ITS CURRENT LOCATION IS BEING
MASKED BY MESOSCALE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE OVER S CENTRAL/SE IA...AND RAP SUGGESTS IT WILL BE WITH
FRONT NEAR THE STL METRO BY MIDDAY. CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CARRY
CURRENT VCTS AT STL METRO TAF SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF VCTS AT KCOU SINCE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE SCT-
BKN CU 4-5KFT (WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVER NEAR/SOUTH OF COLD
FRONT)...WITH THIS CU FIELD QUICKLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...WITH CU FIELD AOA 4KFT BECOMING SCT-BKN BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED VCTS IN THE 18-21 TIME
FRAME AS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE PASSING AT THAT TIME. CU FIELD
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
A FEW CLOUDS AOA 10KFT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON
     IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 291202
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT BLANKETED MOST OF S IA AND N MO LATE
YESTERDAY EVENING BECAME OUTFLOW DOMINATED SHORTLY AFTER
05Z...WITH MAIN ELEMENTS DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING SSW WHILE E EDGE
REMAINED Q-STATIONARY BETWEEN KIRK-KUIN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...E EDGE OF THIS DYING PRECIP AREA MAY CLIP
KUIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH CLOUDS AOA 4KFT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO
BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE
FIRST IS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WHICH
APPEARS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH STL AREA ATTM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT. ITS CURRENT LOCATION IS BEING
MASKED BY MESOSCALE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE OVER S CENTRAL/SE IA...AND RAP SUGGESTS IT WILL BE WITH
FRONT NEAR THE STL METRO BY MIDDAY. CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CARRY
CURRENT VCTS AT STL METRO TAF SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF VCTS AT KCOU SINCE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE SCT-
BKN CU 4-5KFT (WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVER NEAR/SOUTH OF COLD
FRONT)...WITH THIS CU FIELD QUICKLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...WITH CU FIELD AOA 4KFT BECOMING SCT-BKN BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED VCTS IN THE 18-21 TIME
FRAME AS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE PASSING AT THAT TIME. CU FIELD
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
A FEW CLOUDS AOA 10KFT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON
     IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 291202
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT BLANKETED MOST OF S IA AND N MO LATE
YESTERDAY EVENING BECAME OUTFLOW DOMINATED SHORTLY AFTER
05Z...WITH MAIN ELEMENTS DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING SSW WHILE E EDGE
REMAINED Q-STATIONARY BETWEEN KIRK-KUIN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...E EDGE OF THIS DYING PRECIP AREA MAY CLIP
KUIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH CLOUDS AOA 4KFT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO
BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE
FIRST IS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WHICH
APPEARS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH STL AREA ATTM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT. ITS CURRENT LOCATION IS BEING
MASKED BY MESOSCALE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE OVER S CENTRAL/SE IA...AND RAP SUGGESTS IT WILL BE WITH
FRONT NEAR THE STL METRO BY MIDDAY. CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CARRY
CURRENT VCTS AT STL METRO TAF SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF VCTS AT KCOU SINCE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE SCT-
BKN CU 4-5KFT (WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVER NEAR/SOUTH OF COLD
FRONT)...WITH THIS CU FIELD QUICKLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...WITH CU FIELD AOA 4KFT BECOMING SCT-BKN BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED VCTS IN THE 18-21 TIME
FRAME AS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE PASSING AT THAT TIME. CU FIELD
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
A FEW CLOUDS AOA 10KFT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON
     IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 291202
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT BLANKETED MOST OF S IA AND N MO LATE
YESTERDAY EVENING BECAME OUTFLOW DOMINATED SHORTLY AFTER
05Z...WITH MAIN ELEMENTS DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING SSW WHILE E EDGE
REMAINED Q-STATIONARY BETWEEN KIRK-KUIN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...E EDGE OF THIS DYING PRECIP AREA MAY CLIP
KUIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH CLOUDS AOA 4KFT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO
BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE
FIRST IS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WHICH
APPEARS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH STL AREA ATTM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT. ITS CURRENT LOCATION IS BEING
MASKED BY MESOSCALE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE OVER S CENTRAL/SE IA...AND RAP SUGGESTS IT WILL BE WITH
FRONT NEAR THE STL METRO BY MIDDAY. CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CARRY
CURRENT VCTS AT STL METRO TAF SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF VCTS AT KCOU SINCE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE SCT-
BKN CU 4-5KFT (WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVER NEAR/SOUTH OF COLD
FRONT)...WITH THIS CU FIELD QUICKLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...WITH CU FIELD AOA 4KFT BECOMING SCT-BKN BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED VCTS IN THE 18-21 TIME
FRAME AS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE PASSING AT THAT TIME. CU FIELD
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
A FEW CLOUDS AOA 10KFT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON
     IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 291202
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT BLANKETED MOST OF S IA AND N MO LATE
YESTERDAY EVENING BECAME OUTFLOW DOMINATED SHORTLY AFTER
05Z...WITH MAIN ELEMENTS DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING SSW WHILE E EDGE
REMAINED Q-STATIONARY BETWEEN KIRK-KUIN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...E EDGE OF THIS DYING PRECIP AREA MAY CLIP
KUIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH CLOUDS AOA 4KFT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO
BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE
FIRST IS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WHICH
APPEARS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH STL AREA ATTM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT. ITS CURRENT LOCATION IS BEING
MASKED BY MESOSCALE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE OVER S CENTRAL/SE IA...AND RAP SUGGESTS IT WILL BE WITH
FRONT NEAR THE STL METRO BY MIDDAY. CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK BUT THERE SHOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CARRY
CURRENT VCTS AT STL METRO TAF SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF VCTS AT KCOU SINCE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE SCT-
BKN CU 4-5KFT (WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVER NEAR/SOUTH OF COLD
FRONT)...WITH THIS CU FIELD QUICKLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...WITH CU FIELD AOA 4KFT BECOMING SCT-BKN BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED VCTS IN THE 18-21 TIME
FRAME AS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL BE PASSING AT THAT TIME. CU FIELD
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
A FEW CLOUDS AOA 10KFT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON
     IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 291121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LGT RAIN WITH EMBD THUNDER CONT TO MOV THRU THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BUT STORMS ARE DMSHG. EXPECT THESE TO CONT THRU 13Z. CONDS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MCI WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THRU 13Z. OTRW...EXPECT MAINLY SCT-BKN MID-LVL
CLOUDS TODAY WITH JUST HIGH CIRRUS TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT
OF THE NE AROUND 10KTS BEFORE BECMG LGT AND VRB TONIGHT. LGT WINDS
AND RECENT WET CONDS MAY HELP LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED
IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 291121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LGT RAIN WITH EMBD THUNDER CONT TO MOV THRU THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BUT STORMS ARE DMSHG. EXPECT THESE TO CONT THRU 13Z. CONDS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MCI WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THRU 13Z. OTRW...EXPECT MAINLY SCT-BKN MID-LVL
CLOUDS TODAY WITH JUST HIGH CIRRUS TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT
OF THE NE AROUND 10KTS BEFORE BECMG LGT AND VRB TONIGHT. LGT WINDS
AND RECENT WET CONDS MAY HELP LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED
IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73



000
FXUS63 KEAX 291121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LGT RAIN WITH EMBD THUNDER CONT TO MOV THRU THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BUT STORMS ARE DMSHG. EXPECT THESE TO CONT THRU 13Z. CONDS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MCI WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THRU 13Z. OTRW...EXPECT MAINLY SCT-BKN MID-LVL
CLOUDS TODAY WITH JUST HIGH CIRRUS TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT
OF THE NE AROUND 10KTS BEFORE BECMG LGT AND VRB TONIGHT. LGT WINDS
AND RECENT WET CONDS MAY HELP LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED
IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 291121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LGT RAIN WITH EMBD THUNDER CONT TO MOV THRU THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BUT STORMS ARE DMSHG. EXPECT THESE TO CONT THRU 13Z. CONDS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MCI WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THRU 13Z. OTRW...EXPECT MAINLY SCT-BKN MID-LVL
CLOUDS TODAY WITH JUST HIGH CIRRUS TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT
OF THE NE AROUND 10KTS BEFORE BECMG LGT AND VRB TONIGHT. LGT WINDS
AND RECENT WET CONDS MAY HELP LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED
IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73



000
FXUS63 KSGF 291055
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Outflow dominant area of convection over northern MO/Northeast KS
is propagating se-ese. Most high res models continue to weaken
this area in the near term as it moves farther south underneath
mid level ridging. Will continue to carry low pops over the northern
cwfa with the outflow boundary pushing into the area early today.

For later today guidance is a mixed bag as the modest sfc
convergence with the true sfc front moves into the region this
afternoon. Winds veer quite a bit over southern MO today prior
to the frontal passage which limits convergence. SREF and global
models redevelop at least some modest qpf this afternoon, while
high res models are nil or close to it. Weakly capped moderate
mean layer instability will exist, so it`s just a question of
whether overall weak forcing mechanisms will be able to produce
some updrafts. A blend of guidance yields slight to low chance
pops with overall better chances over the eastern-southeastern
cwfa this afternoon. Doesn`t look long lived or widespread.

Heat index values will be highest over the southeast cwfa this
afternoon and will continue the heat headlines as is pending any
further collaboration with surrounding offices.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

It finally looks like we will see some overall relief from the
humidity for a period of time.

The sfc front shifts south of the area as sfc high pressure moves
into KS/MO Thursday and the upper level ridge is suppressed back
to the south and southwest. Some elevated late nighttime
convection might spill into the far sw cwfa for early Thursday,
but will go for mostly a dry forecast.

The upper ridge will amplify over the western CONUS late in the week
and this weekend leaving us in a northwest flow pattern without
any major signals for significant shortwaves and precip as weak
sfc high pressure remains nearby. Differences in timing exist
with the next shortwave moving southeast through the region early
next week. We should see dew points creep up a bit late in the
extended period with only very modest pops/rain chances. Better
chances for rain may hold off until just after this forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks can expected
mostly VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A cold front will
move through this afternoon and evening. Have included a PROB30
group from 21z to 24z for scattered -TSRA to affect TAF sites.
Winds will be westerly to southwesterly early today becoming
northerly with the passage of the cold front this afternoon.
Scattered mid and high level clouds will move in today followed by skies
clearing out tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ082-
     083-096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 290912
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
412 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MO/IA BORDER HAVE BEEN WEAKENING A BIT
THUS SPC DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A WATCH FOR NE MO AND WC IL. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
GONE. STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO MAKE IT TO UIN MOST LIKELY FROM
7Z - 10Z. MODELS DECREASNG THE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK
A MENTION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER QUESTION
IS WILL STORMS FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IS DEVELOPING SOME AND IT HAS BEEN OK LATELY SO WILL GO WITH IT
SOME VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FRONT WILL APPROACH STL 12Z-15Z WITH A WEST
WIND INITTIALLY THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z. MODELS WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MOST KEEP SOME PRECIPITATON ALONG
THE FRONT SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING. NAM HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN RE-DEVELOPING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALSO CARRY A VCTS FOR THIS TIME AS WELL.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON
     IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 290912
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
412 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MO/IA BORDER HAVE BEEN WEAKENING A BIT
THUS SPC DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A WATCH FOR NE MO AND WC IL. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
GONE. STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO MAKE IT TO UIN MOST LIKELY FROM
7Z - 10Z. MODELS DECREASNG THE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK
A MENTION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER QUESTION
IS WILL STORMS FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IS DEVELOPING SOME AND IT HAS BEEN OK LATELY SO WILL GO WITH IT
SOME VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FRONT WILL APPROACH STL 12Z-15Z WITH A WEST
WIND INITTIALLY THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z. MODELS WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MOST KEEP SOME PRECIPITATON ALONG
THE FRONT SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING. NAM HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN RE-DEVELOPING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALSO CARRY A VCTS FOR THIS TIME AS WELL.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON
     IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 290912
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
412 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MO/IA BORDER HAVE BEEN WEAKENING A BIT
THUS SPC DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A WATCH FOR NE MO AND WC IL. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
GONE. STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO MAKE IT TO UIN MOST LIKELY FROM
7Z - 10Z. MODELS DECREASNG THE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK
A MENTION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER QUESTION
IS WILL STORMS FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IS DEVELOPING SOME AND IT HAS BEEN OK LATELY SO WILL GO WITH IT
SOME VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FRONT WILL APPROACH STL 12Z-15Z WITH A WEST
WIND INITTIALLY THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z. MODELS WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MOST KEEP SOME PRECIPITATON ALONG
THE FRONT SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING. NAM HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN RE-DEVELOPING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALSO CARRY A VCTS FOR THIS TIME AS WELL.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON
     IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 290912
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
412 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE EAGERLY-AWAITED COLD FRONT
(AND ITS NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS) WAS
TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE LSX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 08Z,
THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEB AND THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN WI. A NOCTURNAL MCS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BUT VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR AFTN SH/TS.

UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SOUPY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUCH THAT ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 105-109 IN THE WORST AREAS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT INDICES OF 110-117 WHICH WERE OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
BECAUSE IT IS THE CUMULATIVE EXPOSURE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH
NEGATIVELY AFFECTS THE HUMAN BODY, AND TODAY WILL BE THE THIRD OR
FOURTH DAY OF SUCH CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A TWO-DAY RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ON THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS NW
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MO/IA BORDER HAVE BEEN WEAKENING A BIT
THUS SPC DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A WATCH FOR NE MO AND WC IL. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
GONE. STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO MAKE IT TO UIN MOST LIKELY FROM
7Z - 10Z. MODELS DECREASNG THE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK
A MENTION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER QUESTION
IS WILL STORMS FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IS DEVELOPING SOME AND IT HAS BEEN OK LATELY SO WILL GO WITH IT
SOME VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FRONT WILL APPROACH STL 12Z-15Z WITH A WEST
WIND INITTIALLY THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z. MODELS WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MOST KEEP SOME PRECIPITATON ALONG
THE FRONT SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING. NAM HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN RE-DEVELOPING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALSO CARRY A VCTS FOR THIS TIME AS WELL.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
     ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS
     MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON
     IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 290849
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 290849
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 290849
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 290849
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around rainfall falling
overnight and the river and flash flooding that has or is occurring.
Through 3AM...radar is estimating 3 to 5 inches of precip has fallen
across portions of northern Missouri this has caused areas of flash
flooding along and north of Highway 36. This has also caused several
local areas, creeks and streams to flood across northern Missouri.
Fortunately, the heavy rain has shifted south towards the I-70
corridor and south of those areas that have received the heaviest
rainfall. This rainfall has come courtesy of a cold front sinking
south through the area this morning. This cold front will continue
to sink south this morning, clearing the southern CWA around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south
behind this front and will diminish by mid-morning. There will be the
potential for addition light showers across the southern CWA during
the day as an elevated front will remain over the area. Otherwise,
conditions should remain dry and much more pleasant today as surface
high pressure builds into the area. Expect highs in the mid 80s.

High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday keep
conditions dry with seasonable highs mid 80s to near 90 on Thursday
and Friday.

Friday night we being to undergo a pattern change from a zonal
pattern where an upper level ridge of high pressure covering much of
the southern CONUS begins to retreat back to western CONUS and
begins to build. This will lead to a more amplified pattern where
strong upper level ridging will reside out west with upper level
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Locally, we
will be under northwest flow. Models suggest several shortwaves will
move through the area on northwest flow bringing several chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning early Saturday morning and
continuing into the middle of next week. This pattern will also
provide for near normal temperature this weekend through the mid of
next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KSGF 290814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Outflow dominant area of convection over northern MO/Northeast KS
is propagating se-ese. Most high res models continue to weaken
this area in the near term as it moves farther south underneath
mid level ridging. Will continue to carry low pops over the northern
cwfa with the outflow boundary pushing into the area early today.

For later today guidance is a mixed bag as the modest sfc
convergence with the true sfc front moves into the region this
afternoon. Winds veer quite a bit over southern MO today prior
to the frontal passage which limits convergence. SREF and global
models redevelop at least some modest qpf this afternoon, while
high res models are nil or close to it. Weakly capped moderate
mean layer instability will exist, so it`s just a question of
whether overall weak forcing mechanisms will be able to produce
some updrafts. A blend of guidance yields slight to low chance
pops with overall better chances over the eastern-southeastern
cwfa this afternoon. Doesn`t look long lived or widespread.

Heat index values will be highest over the southeast cwfa this
afternoon and will continue the heat headlines as is pending any
further collaboration with surrounding offices.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

It finally looks like we will see some overall relief from the
humidity for a period of time.

The sfc front shifts south of the area as sfc high pressure moves
into KS/MO Thursday and the upper level ridge is suppressed back
to the south and southwest. Some elevated late nighttime
convection might spill into the far sw cwfa for early Thursday,
but will go for mostly a dry forecast.

The upper ridge will amplify over the western CONUS late in the week
and this weekend leaving us in a northwest flow pattern without
any major signals for significant shortwaves and precip as weak
sfc high pressure remains nearby. Differences in timing exist
with the next shortwave moving southeast through the region early
next week. We should see dew points creep up a bit late in the
extended period with only very modest pops/rain chances. Better
chances for rain may hold off until just after this forecast
period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday evening
with some increasing high clouds. Winds will shift around to the
north behind a passing cold front on Wednesday. At this time, it
appears that most thunderstorm activity will remain north of the
region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ082-
     083-096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 290814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

Outflow dominant area of convection over northern MO/Northeast KS
is propagating se-ese. Most high res models continue to weaken
this area in the near term as it moves farther south underneath
mid level ridging. Will continue to carry low pops over the northern
cwfa with the outflow boundary pushing into the area early today.

For later today guidance is a mixed bag as the modest sfc
convergence with the true sfc front moves into the region this
afternoon. Winds veer quite a bit over southern MO today prior
to the frontal passage which limits convergence. SREF and global
models redevelop at least some modest qpf this afternoon, while
high res models are nil or close to it. Weakly capped moderate
mean layer instability will exist, so it`s just a question of
whether overall weak forcing mechanisms will be able to produce
some updrafts. A blend of guidance yields slight to low chance
pops with overall better chances over the eastern-southeastern
cwfa this afternoon. Doesn`t look long lived or widespread.

Heat index values will be highest over the southeast cwfa this
afternoon and will continue the heat headlines as is pending any
further collaboration with surrounding offices.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

It finally looks like we will see some overall relief from the
humidity for a period of time.

The sfc front shifts south of the area as sfc high pressure moves
into KS/MO Thursday and the upper level ridge is suppressed back
to the south and southwest. Some elevated late nighttime
convection might spill into the far sw cwfa for early Thursday,
but will go for mostly a dry forecast.

The upper ridge will amplify over the western CONUS late in the week
and this weekend leaving us in a northwest flow pattern without
any major signals for significant shortwaves and precip as weak
sfc high pressure remains nearby. Differences in timing exist
with the next shortwave moving southeast through the region early
next week. We should see dew points creep up a bit late in the
extended period with only very modest pops/rain chances. Better
chances for rain may hold off until just after this forecast
period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday evening
with some increasing high clouds. Winds will shift around to the
north behind a passing cold front on Wednesday. At this time, it
appears that most thunderstorm activity will remain north of the
region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ082-
     083-096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KSGF 290444
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday evening
with some increasing high clouds. Winds will shift around to the
north behind a passing cold front on Wednesday. At this time, it
appears that most thunderstorm activity will remain north of the
region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ082-083-
     096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290444
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday evening
with some increasing high clouds. Winds will shift around to the
north behind a passing cold front on Wednesday. At this time, it
appears that most thunderstorm activity will remain north of the
region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ082-083-
     096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290444
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday evening
with some increasing high clouds. Winds will shift around to the
north behind a passing cold front on Wednesday. At this time, it
appears that most thunderstorm activity will remain north of the
region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ082-083-
     096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290444
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday evening
with some increasing high clouds. Winds will shift around to the
north behind a passing cold front on Wednesday. At this time, it
appears that most thunderstorm activity will remain north of the
region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ082-083-
     096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290444
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday evening
with some increasing high clouds. Winds will shift around to the
north behind a passing cold front on Wednesday. At this time, it
appears that most thunderstorm activity will remain north of the
region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ082-083-
     096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KEAX 290430
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 290430
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 290430
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 290430
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 290430
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KEAX 290430
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Convection across northern Missouri is not making southern progress
as quickly as anticipated, so have bumped back the timing of arrival
into the terminals. That being said, the chances for the KC terminals
to see thunderstorm activity is are a bit lower than considered
earlier. Same goes for KSTJ, where storms are a bit more likely to
affect the terminals. Due to low confidence of T-storm development at
the terminals, went with VCTS and TEMPO to cover that concern. By or
shortly after sunrise expect T-storms to end with mid level clouds
remaining through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KLSX 290418
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AND SURROUND AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WON`T COOL OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND SHOULD WARM RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE WE SHOULDN`T SEE THE EXTREME HEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-106 RANGE GIVEN THE
POOLING OF DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S AND TEMPS RISING
QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 90S, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE LONGEVITY OF
DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS GOING.

OTHERISE THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 105-117F RANGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. LAMBERT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING 100. THESE VALUES SHOULD FALL OFF BELOW CRITERIA BY 9
PM. ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AS ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY UNCAPPED AND MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN
3000-4000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BECOME STRONG AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT WITH BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF ASCENT FROM PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

.LONG TERM:  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA
INTO THE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE WON`T BE A STRONG PUSH OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BECAUSE OF THIS, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN
THE MID 70S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S WHICH
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
44 IN MISSOURI AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT.

(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND LARGE
MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEGINS
TO FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE FLOW OVER MIDWEST MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, SO WILL
KEEP WITH IT`S SOLUTION.  WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  BY LATE
ON TUESDAY A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO LATE
JULY NORMALS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 18-22C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MO/IA BORDER HAVE BEEN WEAKENING A BIT
THUS SPC DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A WATCH FOR NE MO AND WC IL. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
GONE. STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO MAKE IT TO UIN MOST LIKELY FROM
7Z - 10Z. MODELS DECREASNG THE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK
A MENTION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER QUESTION
IS WILL STORMS FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IS DEVELOPING SOME AND IT HAS BEEN OK LATELY SO WILL GO WITH IT
SOME VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FRONT WILL APPROACH STL 12Z-15Z WITH A WEST
WIND INITTIALLY THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z. MODELS WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MOST KEEP SOME PRECIPITATON ALONG
THE FRONT SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING. NAM HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN RE-DEVELOPING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALSO CARRY A VCTS FOR THIS TIME AS WELL.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLINTON IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 290418
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AND SURROUND AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WON`T COOL OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND SHOULD WARM RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE WE SHOULDN`T SEE THE EXTREME HEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-106 RANGE GIVEN THE
POOLING OF DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S AND TEMPS RISING
QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 90S, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE LONGEVITY OF
DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS GOING.

OTHERISE THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 105-117F RANGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. LAMBERT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING 100. THESE VALUES SHOULD FALL OFF BELOW CRITERIA BY 9
PM. ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AS ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY UNCAPPED AND MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN
3000-4000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BECOME STRONG AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT WITH BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF ASCENT FROM PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

.LONG TERM:  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA
INTO THE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE WON`T BE A STRONG PUSH OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BECAUSE OF THIS, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN
THE MID 70S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S WHICH
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
44 IN MISSOURI AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT.

(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND LARGE
MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEGINS
TO FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE FLOW OVER MIDWEST MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, SO WILL
KEEP WITH IT`S SOLUTION.  WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  BY LATE
ON TUESDAY A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO LATE
JULY NORMALS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 18-22C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MO/IA BORDER HAVE BEEN WEAKENING A BIT
THUS SPC DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A WATCH FOR NE MO AND WC IL. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
GONE. STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO MAKE IT TO UIN MOST LIKELY FROM
7Z - 10Z. MODELS DECREASNG THE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK
A MENTION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER QUESTION
IS WILL STORMS FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IS DEVELOPING SOME AND IT HAS BEEN OK LATELY SO WILL GO WITH IT
SOME VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FRONT WILL APPROACH STL 12Z-15Z WITH A WEST
WIND INITTIALLY THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z. MODELS WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MOST KEEP SOME PRECIPITATON ALONG
THE FRONT SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING. NAM HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN RE-DEVELOPING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALSO CARRY A VCTS FOR THIS TIME AS WELL.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLINTON IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 290418
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AND SURROUND AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WON`T COOL OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND SHOULD WARM RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE WE SHOULDN`T SEE THE EXTREME HEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-106 RANGE GIVEN THE
POOLING OF DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S AND TEMPS RISING
QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 90S, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE LONGEVITY OF
DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS GOING.

OTHERISE THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 105-117F RANGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. LAMBERT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING 100. THESE VALUES SHOULD FALL OFF BELOW CRITERIA BY 9
PM. ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AS ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY UNCAPPED AND MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN
3000-4000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BECOME STRONG AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT WITH BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF ASCENT FROM PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

.LONG TERM:  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA
INTO THE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE WON`T BE A STRONG PUSH OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BECAUSE OF THIS, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN
THE MID 70S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S WHICH
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
44 IN MISSOURI AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT.

(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND LARGE
MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEGINS
TO FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE FLOW OVER MIDWEST MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, SO WILL
KEEP WITH IT`S SOLUTION.  WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  BY LATE
ON TUESDAY A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO LATE
JULY NORMALS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 18-22C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MO/IA BORDER HAVE BEEN WEAKENING A BIT
THUS SPC DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A WATCH FOR NE MO AND WC IL. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
GONE. STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO MAKE IT TO UIN MOST LIKELY FROM
7Z - 10Z. MODELS DECREASNG THE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK
A MENTION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER QUESTION
IS WILL STORMS FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IS DEVELOPING SOME AND IT HAS BEEN OK LATELY SO WILL GO WITH IT
SOME VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FRONT WILL APPROACH STL 12Z-15Z WITH A WEST
WIND INITTIALLY THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z. MODELS WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MOST KEEP SOME PRECIPITATON ALONG
THE FRONT SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING. NAM HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN RE-DEVELOPING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALSO CARRY A VCTS FOR THIS TIME AS WELL.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLINTON IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 290418
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AND SURROUND AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WON`T COOL OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND SHOULD WARM RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE WE SHOULDN`T SEE THE EXTREME HEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-106 RANGE GIVEN THE
POOLING OF DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S AND TEMPS RISING
QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 90S, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE LONGEVITY OF
DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS GOING.

OTHERISE THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 105-117F RANGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. LAMBERT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING 100. THESE VALUES SHOULD FALL OFF BELOW CRITERIA BY 9
PM. ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AS ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY UNCAPPED AND MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN
3000-4000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BECOME STRONG AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT WITH BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF ASCENT FROM PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

.LONG TERM:  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA
INTO THE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE WON`T BE A STRONG PUSH OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BECAUSE OF THIS, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN
THE MID 70S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S WHICH
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
44 IN MISSOURI AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT.

(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND LARGE
MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEGINS
TO FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE FLOW OVER MIDWEST MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, SO WILL
KEEP WITH IT`S SOLUTION.  WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  BY LATE
ON TUESDAY A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO LATE
JULY NORMALS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 18-22C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MO/IA BORDER HAVE BEEN WEAKENING A BIT
THUS SPC DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A WATCH FOR NE MO AND WC IL. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR BUT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
GONE. STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO MAKE IT TO UIN MOST LIKELY FROM
7Z - 10Z. MODELS DECREASNG THE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK
A MENTION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER QUESTION
IS WILL STORMS FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IS DEVELOPING SOME AND IT HAS BEEN OK LATELY SO WILL GO WITH IT
SOME VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: FRONT WILL APPROACH STL 12Z-15Z WITH A WEST
WIND INITTIALLY THEN NORTHWEST BY 15Z. MODELS WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MO/IA BORDER AS IT MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MOST KEEP SOME PRECIPITATON ALONG
THE FRONT SO WILL INTRODUCE A VCTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING. NAM HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN RE-DEVELOPING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALSO CARRY A VCTS FOR THIS TIME AS WELL.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLINTON IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 290220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
920 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AND SURROUND AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WON`T COOL OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND SHOULD WARM RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE WE SHOULDN`T SEE THE EXTREME HEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-106 RANGE GIVEN THE
POOLING OF DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S AND TEMPS RISING
QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 90S, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE LONGEVITY OF
DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS GOING.

OTHERISE THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 105-117F RANGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. LAMBERT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING 100. THESE VALUES SHOULD FALL OFF BELOW CRITERIA BY 9
PM. ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AS ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY UNCAPPED AND MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN
3000-4000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BECOME STRONG AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT WITH BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF ASCENT FROM PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

.LONG TERM:  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA
INTO THE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE WON`T BE A STRONG PUSH OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BECAUSE OF THIS, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN
THE MID 70S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S WHICH
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
44 IN MISSOURI AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT.

(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND LARGE
MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEGINS
TO FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE FLOW OVER MIDWEST MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, SO WILL
KEEP WITH IT`S SOLUTION.  WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  BY LATE
ON TUESDAY A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO LATE
JULY NORMALS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 18-22C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MO AS A RESULT OF THE CONVECTION OVER IOWA TODAY. THE CU WOULD
ENHANCE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT MOVED, FINALLY KICKING UP A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STL AREA. NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE A SHIFT TO THE NW AT UIN ABOUT 10Z, COU 12Z AND INTO
THE STL AREA 14Z. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY BUT FORCING LOOKS WEAK.
UIN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. OUTLFOW WILL
MESS WITH THE WIND AT SUS FOR A WHILE BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO
LIGHT SOUTH.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN IL HAS SHIFTED THE WIND
TO THE SE. THIS MAY LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WILL GO BACK TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR TO SEE IF
MORE STORMS FORM ALONG THE OUTFLOW, SO A VCTS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOUNDS PRUDENT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT INTIALLY MOVES IN ABOUT
12Z WITH A WEST WIND THEN TO NW ABOUT 14Z. FORCING LOOKS WEEK IN
THE MORNING SO WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THAT CHANGE. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD COULD KICKED OFF STORMS MONDAY AFTER 18Z. A VCTS
LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLINTON IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 290220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
920 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN THE ST. LOUIS METRO AND SURROUND AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WON`T COOL OFF MUCH TONIGHT AND SHOULD WARM RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE WE SHOULDN`T SEE THE EXTREME HEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-106 RANGE GIVEN THE
POOLING OF DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S AND TEMPS RISING
QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 90S, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE LONGEVITY OF
DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS GOING.

OTHERISE THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL.

GLASS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 105-117F RANGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. LAMBERT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING 100. THESE VALUES SHOULD FALL OFF BELOW CRITERIA BY 9
PM. ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AS ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY UNCAPPED AND MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN
3000-4000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BECOME STRONG AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE KEPT WITH BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF ASCENT FROM PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

.LONG TERM:  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA
INTO THE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...THERE WON`T BE A STRONG PUSH OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BECAUSE OF THIS, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN
THE MID 70S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S WHICH
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
44 IN MISSOURI AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT.

(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND LARGE
MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEGINS
TO FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE FLOW OVER MIDWEST MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, SO WILL
KEEP WITH IT`S SOLUTION.  WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  BY LATE
ON TUESDAY A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO LATE
JULY NORMALS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 18-22C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MO AS A RESULT OF THE CONVECTION OVER IOWA TODAY. THE CU WOULD
ENHANCE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT MOVED, FINALLY KICKING UP A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STL AREA. NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE A SHIFT TO THE NW AT UIN ABOUT 10Z, COU 12Z AND INTO
THE STL AREA 14Z. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY BUT FORCING LOOKS WEAK.
UIN LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. OUTLFOW WILL
MESS WITH THE WIND AT SUS FOR A WHILE BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO
LIGHT SOUTH.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN IL HAS SHIFTED THE WIND
TO THE SE. THIS MAY LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WILL GO BACK TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR TO SEE IF
MORE STORMS FORM ALONG THE OUTFLOW, SO A VCTS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOUNDS PRUDENT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT INTIALLY MOVES IN ABOUT
12Z WITH A WEST WIND THEN TO NW ABOUT 14Z. FORCING LOOKS WEEK IN
THE MORNING SO WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THAT CHANGE. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD COULD KICKED OFF STORMS MONDAY AFTER 18Z. A VCTS
LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLINTON IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 282332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Line of thunderstorm activity expected to form north of the terminals
later this evening, and should stay north of the KC terminals,
however KSTJ will have a much better chance to see flight
restrictions due to convection in the vicinity of or right at the
terminal. Thunderstorm activity is anticipated to weaken as it moves
southward, so whether or not KMKC, KMCI, or KIXD will see convection
is unclear. Handled those sites with a TEMPO for possible convection
moving in later tonight. After 10z storm activity should cease, with
mid level clouds remaining for the next few hours. Frontal boundary
will move through tonight and along with the wind shift could bring
some high-based showers that could cause some sprinkly activity near
the terminals Wed afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 282332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Line of thunderstorm activity expected to form north of the terminals
later this evening, and should stay north of the KC terminals,
however KSTJ will have a much better chance to see flight
restrictions due to convection in the vicinity of or right at the
terminal. Thunderstorm activity is anticipated to weaken as it moves
southward, so whether or not KMKC, KMCI, or KIXD will see convection
is unclear. Handled those sites with a TEMPO for possible convection
moving in later tonight. After 10z storm activity should cease, with
mid level clouds remaining for the next few hours. Frontal boundary
will move through tonight and along with the wind shift could bring
some high-based showers that could cause some sprinkly activity near
the terminals Wed afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KEAX 282332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota southwest into
central Kansas is poised to move into forecast area tonight. In
advance of this boundary another hot day was noted across the area
with air temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values in
excess of 105 at most locations.

An strong upper level low over the northern Plains should translate east
northeast into southern Canada tonight and tomorrow pushing a cold
front through the forecast area. On-going convection in Iowa
together with new development along the boundary should sag into
northern Missouri later this evening. Given high precipitable water
values (at or above 2 inches) and the antecedent soil conditions over
north central and northeast Missouri feel flash flood watch is
warranted. Models do seem fairly progressive with the boundary once
it begins to move south so greatest threat for heavy rain should be
confined to the late evening/overnight hours. Some severe storms are
also possible over northern Missouri as boundary provides focusing
mechanism for decent instability already in place. Further south and
west the threat for organized convection looks lower as better upper
dynamics pull into the Great Lakes region.

Frontal boundary should push through the area by tomorrow morning
providing for drier conditions and cooler temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow than today
as surface high pressure settles into the region.

For the remainder of the week, the combination of building upper
level northwest flow and surface high pressure should provide for
seasonal temperatures and generally dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the extended periods...Saturday through Tuesday... the region
will lie under deep layer northwest flow as the ridge continues its
hold over the western CONUS. As a result temperatures through the
period will be close to normal. At this time precip chances exist
nearly each day but POPs appear low as only low amplitude waves are
expected to move by in the northwest flow.

END

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Line of thunderstorm activity expected to form north of the terminals
later this evening, and should stay north of the KC terminals,
however KSTJ will have a much better chance to see flight
restrictions due to convection in the vicinity of or right at the
terminal. Thunderstorm activity is anticipated to weaken as it moves
southward, so whether or not KMKC, KMCI, or KIXD will see convection
is unclear. Handled those sites with a TEMPO for possible convection
moving in later tonight. After 10z storm activity should cease, with
mid level clouds remaining for the next few hours. Frontal boundary
will move through tonight and along with the wind shift could bring
some high-based showers that could cause some sprinkly activity near
the terminals Wed afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ005>008-013>017-
     020>025-030>033.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning for MOZ003>008-
     015>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KSGF 282331
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the
taf period. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to less than
10 knots this evening at the taf sites and then will switch to the
west northwest early Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes
across the area. Weak lift and drier mid levels with the front
will result in only isolated convective activity at best with
chances too low to include in the taf forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 282331
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the
taf period. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to less than
10 knots this evening at the taf sites and then will switch to the
west northwest early Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes
across the area. Weak lift and drier mid levels with the front
will result in only isolated convective activity at best with
chances too low to include in the taf forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 282331
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the
taf period. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to less than
10 knots this evening at the taf sites and then will switch to the
west northwest early Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes
across the area. Weak lift and drier mid levels with the front
will result in only isolated convective activity at best with
chances too low to include in the taf forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 282331
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the
taf period. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to less than
10 knots this evening at the taf sites and then will switch to the
west northwest early Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes
across the area. Weak lift and drier mid levels with the front
will result in only isolated convective activity at best with
chances too low to include in the taf forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding






000
FXUS63 KSGF 282331
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the
taf period. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to less than
10 knots this evening at the taf sites and then will switch to the
west northwest early Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes
across the area. Weak lift and drier mid levels with the front
will result in only isolated convective activity at best with
chances too low to include in the taf forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282331
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

Another hot and humid day is underway this afternoon, with 2 PM
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices between 100
and 105.  Readings will warm a few more degrees this afternoon,
under partly to mostly sunny skies.  A couple of isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over far south central Missouri
through sunset, though the vast majority of locations will remain
dry.

A strong shortwave and associated cold front are currently making
their way across the northern High Plains.  The upper level wave
will continue to move east into the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning,
with the trailing surface front moving southeast toward the area
tomorrow.  This front should slowly move south through the CWA
during the day tomorrow.  Lift associated with this front will be
very weak, and this, combined with rather dry mid levels, will
result in limited rain chances tomorrow over the forecast area.  A
few scattered storms will be possible, but current expectations are
for most areas to remain dry.

The approach of the front also makes heat headlines a bit of a
challenge tomorrow, as exact timing of FROPA will have significant
impact on how high heat indices will rise.  Right now, it appears
that the highest readings will be confined to far south central
Missouri, and will extend the Heat Warning for this area for one
more day.  Elsewhere, the Heat Warning will be allowed to expire at
9 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The post frontal airmass building into the area tomorrow night into
Thursday won`t be all that much cooler, but does appear to be much
less humid, with dewpoints dropping into the low 60 (perhaps even
upper 50s).  This will mean 1. much lower heat indices during the
day, and 2. A much better opportunity for temperatures to cool off
overnight.  Thursday and Friday should feature highs in the upper
80s, with lows in the 60s.

Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low 90s for the
weekend, though this isn`t too far off of climatological averages
for this time of year.  More importantly, however, dewpoints will be
a solid 5-8 degrees lower across the board compared to the last few
weeks, keeping heat indices well under heat advisory/warning criteria.

Similar conditions will continue into next workweek, as broad
northwest flow aloft remains in place across the eastern United
States.  This should keep temperatures around average, with minimal
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the
taf period. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to less than
10 knots this evening at the taf sites and then will switch to the
west northwest early Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes
across the area. Weak lift and drier mid levels with the front
will result in only isolated convective activity at best with
chances too low to include in the taf forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ097-098-
     105-106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding






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