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000
FXUS63 KLSX 020134
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
834 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 832 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Updated grids and zones as showers and a few thunderstorms
continue to diminish early this evening. Otherwise, could see fog
develop especially in areas that saw some rain today.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough currently along the
Missouri River SE of KOAX heading southeast and will be the main
feature of interest tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have persisted through early this afternoon and believe they will continue
to survive into the evening hours. However...with loss of
instability...precipitation should become more showery and devoid
of thunder similar to what happened last night across northwest
Missouri.

Drier weather with decreasing cloudiness is expected behind this feature
setting the stage for another cool summer night. Other concern then turns
to fog as winds remain light/variable or calm. Combine that with fairly
clear skies expected late tonight and higher dewpoints compared to a
of days ago...did add mention of patchy fog for the entire CWA as
forecast minimums in most of these locales are several degrees
below crossover temperatures. Dense fog will be more likely in
areas which receive higher rainfall totals through this evening.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


(Saturday - Friday)

Secondary shortwave trough looks to be a bit further to the east tomorrow
than it was modeled 24 hours ago. Consequently...did drop the sch PoPs
along and east of the Mississippi River. Also yielded toward the warmer
guidance with respect to highs tomorrow due to less expected diurnal cu
as well as a slight warming in 850-hPa temperatures.

Sunday and Monday also look dry with high temperatures back to near normal
for early August.

A more active pattern still could be in the offing for the middle to late
next week as bi-state area will lie beneath quasi-zonal/WNW flow
aloft. At least a few shortwave troughs will come across during
this time frame and should interact with a tightening low-level
baroclinic zone. Only have chance PoPs Wednesday - Friday for now
due to uncertainty/timing issues...but does appear that we will be
heading into a much wetter pattern than the past couple of weeks.
As for temperatures...lows will likely remain near or even
slightly above normal but highs are forecast to return to slightly
below normal due to expected clouds/rain chances.


Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly dissipate
with loss of daytime heating and will shift east of the
Mississippi River between 01-02Z. Have kept VCSH in the St. Louis
metro TAF sites and at KUIN through 01Z to allow for this trend.
Main concern overnight is fog development because there is more
moisture in the air than the past few nights. Have fog between
9-13Z going at most of the terminals. Think IFR conditions will
once again be at KCPS where they were last night and light rain
has been the most persistent. Then expect dry and VFR conditions
on Saturday with scattered clouds bases developing around 5000ft
by midday with continued light winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect scattered showers to move away from the
terminal around 01Z. There is more moisture in the air tonight
than previous nights, so expect some VFR fog between 10-13Z.
Expect dry and VFR conditions on Saturday.

Britt
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 020134
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
834 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 832 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Updated grids and zones as showers and a few thunderstorms
continue to diminish early this evening. Otherwise, could see fog
develop especially in areas that saw some rain today.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough currently along the
Missouri River SE of KOAX heading southeast and will be the main
feature of interest tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have persisted through early this afternoon and believe they will continue
to survive into the evening hours. However...with loss of
instability...precipitation should become more showery and devoid
of thunder similar to what happened last night across northwest
Missouri.

Drier weather with decreasing cloudiness is expected behind this feature
setting the stage for another cool summer night. Other concern then turns
to fog as winds remain light/variable or calm. Combine that with fairly
clear skies expected late tonight and higher dewpoints compared to a
of days ago...did add mention of patchy fog for the entire CWA as
forecast minimums in most of these locales are several degrees
below crossover temperatures. Dense fog will be more likely in
areas which receive higher rainfall totals through this evening.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


(Saturday - Friday)

Secondary shortwave trough looks to be a bit further to the east tomorrow
than it was modeled 24 hours ago. Consequently...did drop the sch PoPs
along and east of the Mississippi River. Also yielded toward the warmer
guidance with respect to highs tomorrow due to less expected diurnal cu
as well as a slight warming in 850-hPa temperatures.

Sunday and Monday also look dry with high temperatures back to near normal
for early August.

A more active pattern still could be in the offing for the middle to late
next week as bi-state area will lie beneath quasi-zonal/WNW flow
aloft. At least a few shortwave troughs will come across during
this time frame and should interact with a tightening low-level
baroclinic zone. Only have chance PoPs Wednesday - Friday for now
due to uncertainty/timing issues...but does appear that we will be
heading into a much wetter pattern than the past couple of weeks.
As for temperatures...lows will likely remain near or even
slightly above normal but highs are forecast to return to slightly
below normal due to expected clouds/rain chances.


Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly dissipate
with loss of daytime heating and will shift east of the
Mississippi River between 01-02Z. Have kept VCSH in the St. Louis
metro TAF sites and at KUIN through 01Z to allow for this trend.
Main concern overnight is fog development because there is more
moisture in the air than the past few nights. Have fog between
9-13Z going at most of the terminals. Think IFR conditions will
once again be at KCPS where they were last night and light rain
has been the most persistent. Then expect dry and VFR conditions
on Saturday with scattered clouds bases developing around 5000ft
by midday with continued light winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect scattered showers to move away from the
terminal around 01Z. There is more moisture in the air tonight
than previous nights, so expect some VFR fog between 10-13Z.
Expect dry and VFR conditions on Saturday.

Britt
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 012342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough currently along the
Missouri River SE of KOAX heading southeast and will be the main
feature of interest tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have persisted through early this afternoon and believe they will continue
to survive into the evening hours. However...with loss of
instability...precipitation should become more showery and devoid
of thunder similar to what happened last night across northwest
Missouri.

Drier weather with decreasing cloudiness is expected behind this feature
setting the stage for another cool summer night. Other concern then turns
to fog as winds remain light/variable or calm. Combine that with fairly
clear skies expected late tonight and higher dewpoints compared to a
of days ago...did add mention of patchy fog for the entire CWA as
forecast minimums in most of these locales are several degrees
below crossover temperatures. Dense fog will be more likely in
areas which receive higher rainfall totals through this evening.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


(Saturday - Friday)

Secondary shortwave trough looks to be a bit further to the east tomorrow
than it was modeled 24 hours ago. Consequently...did drop the sch PoPs
along and east of the Mississippi River. Also yielded toward the warmer
guidance with respect to highs tomorrow due to less expected diurnal cu
as well as a slight warming in 850-hPa temperatures.

Sunday and Monday also look dry with high temperatures back to near normal
for early August.

A more active pattern still could be in the offing for the middle to late
next week as bi-state area will lie beneath quasi-zonal/WNW flow
aloft. At least a few shortwave troughs will come across during
this time frame and should interact with a tightening low-level
baroclinic zone. Only have chance PoPs Wednesday - Friday for now
due to uncertainty/timing issues...but does appear that we will be
heading into a much wetter pattern than the past couple of weeks.
As for temperatures...lows will likely remain near or even
slightly above normal but highs are forecast to return to slightly
below normal due to expected clouds/rain chances.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly dissipate
with loss of daytime heating and will shift east of the
Mississippi River between 01-02Z. Have kept VCSH in the St. Louis
metro TAF sites and at KUIN through 01Z to allow for this trend.
Main concern overnight is fog development because there is more
moisture in the air than the past few nights. Have fog between
9-13Z going at most of the terminals. Think IFR conditions will
once again be at KCPS where they were last night and light rain
has been the most persistent. Then expect dry and VFR conditions
on Saturday with scattered clouds bases developing around 5000ft
by midday with continued light winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect scattered showers to move away from the
terminal around 01Z. There is more moisture in the air tonight
than previous nights, so expect some VFR fog between 10-13Z.
Expect dry and VFR conditions on Saturday.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  87  65  88 /  30  10   5   5
Quincy          57  85  61  85 /  20  10   0   5
Columbia        59  87  63  88 /  20  10  10   5
Jefferson City  59  87  63  88 /  20  10  10   5
Salem           62  84  60  84 /  40  10   5   5
Farmington      61  86  60  86 /  40  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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000
FXUS63 KEAX 012342
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A weak wave embedded in northwest upper-level flow has led to
isolated showers and thunderstorms over far northern Missouri this
afternoon. This activity will remain isolated to widely scattered in
nature, focused mainly east of the US 65 corridor and north of I-70.
Precipitation will die down quickly later this evening once daytime
heating is lost.

Little change to the weather pattern through the weekend with
persistent northwest upper flow. Increasing temperatures aloft should
increase inhibition and prevent much if any precipitation from
developing from any weak impulses that may drop down. Temperatures
will be close to average through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Warming trend to continue into the first part of the work week as
upper pattern gradually begins to flatten.  Both ECMWF and GEM
models warm H8 temperatures back to greater than 20C by Monday
particularly over northwest Missouri, which should lead to a return
of temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

A weak upper vorticity max forecast to rotate down the
upper ridge into the central Plains by Tuesday.  Feature not
particular strong but could justify some slight chance PoPs mainly
over north central and northeast Missouri.  Better signals for
precipitation chances in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe when a
surface boundary works southward into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR with generally clear skies with a few clouds early this evening
and Saturday afternoon. Could see some MVFR river valley/steam fog
at KSTJ shortly before sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...MJ





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000
FXUS63 KSGF 012342
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms
have developed over central and east central Missouri this
afternoon in advance of an upper level short wave. This activity
is expected to continue to move southward through the remainder of
the afternoon before dissipating around sunset.

The mild August temperatures are expected to continue through the
weekend as an upper level ridge remains ensconced over the
Rockies and we remain in northwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

By Sunday night...a short wave approaching the West Coast will
begin to flatten out the ridge which will push the upper level
trough currently over the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley. This will bring a warming trend to the region that will
return us to near normal August temperatures by Tuesday.

As this short wave moves up and over the ridge and dives
southward...a surface front will form in the lee of the Rockies on
Tuesday which will begin to affect our weather on Wednesday. Rain
chances will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon. Have chance
PoPs going in the forecast through Friday. Right now...expect
coverage to be scattered with the entire area getting somewhere
between one-quarter to one-half inch of rain through that period.
Temperatures should remain seasonal through the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Isolated showers/thunderstorms over
the region are expected to dissipate over the next hour or two and
don`t expect them to affect any lasting impact at any of the taf
sites. KSGF is the closest to existing showers.

Some areas of fog are expected to develop again tonight
toward the 08z-10z time frame. It is a little drier today and KJLN
and KSGF so am not expecting fog to be as widespread or dense.
KBBG still has dew points in the low 60s so with nighttime cooling
think this site will have the best chance for ifr cat fog.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KEAX 012342
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A weak wave embedded in northwest upper-level flow has led to
isolated showers and thunderstorms over far northern Missouri this
afternoon. This activity will remain isolated to widely scattered in
nature, focused mainly east of the US 65 corridor and north of I-70.
Precipitation will die down quickly later this evening once daytime
heating is lost.

Little change to the weather pattern through the weekend with
persistent northwest upper flow. Increasing temperatures aloft should
increase inhibition and prevent much if any precipitation from
developing from any weak impulses that may drop down. Temperatures
will be close to average through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Warming trend to continue into the first part of the work week as
upper pattern gradually begins to flatten.  Both ECMWF and GEM
models warm H8 temperatures back to greater than 20C by Monday
particularly over northwest Missouri, which should lead to a return
of temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

A weak upper vorticity max forecast to rotate down the
upper ridge into the central Plains by Tuesday.  Feature not
particular strong but could justify some slight chance PoPs mainly
over north central and northeast Missouri.  Better signals for
precipitation chances in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe when a
surface boundary works southward into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR with generally clear skies with a few clouds early this evening
and Saturday afternoon. Could see some MVFR river valley/steam fog
at KSTJ shortly before sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KSGF 012342
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms
have developed over central and east central Missouri this
afternoon in advance of an upper level short wave. This activity
is expected to continue to move southward through the remainder of
the afternoon before dissipating around sunset.

The mild August temperatures are expected to continue through the
weekend as an upper level ridge remains ensconced over the
Rockies and we remain in northwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

By Sunday night...a short wave approaching the West Coast will
begin to flatten out the ridge which will push the upper level
trough currently over the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley. This will bring a warming trend to the region that will
return us to near normal August temperatures by Tuesday.

As this short wave moves up and over the ridge and dives
southward...a surface front will form in the lee of the Rockies on
Tuesday which will begin to affect our weather on Wednesday. Rain
chances will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon. Have chance
PoPs going in the forecast through Friday. Right now...expect
coverage to be scattered with the entire area getting somewhere
between one-quarter to one-half inch of rain through that period.
Temperatures should remain seasonal through the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Isolated showers/thunderstorms over
the region are expected to dissipate over the next hour or two and
don`t expect them to affect any lasting impact at any of the taf
sites. KSGF is the closest to existing showers.

Some areas of fog are expected to develop again tonight
toward the 08z-10z time frame. It is a little drier today and KJLN
and KSGF so am not expecting fog to be as widespread or dense.
KBBG still has dew points in the low 60s so with nighttime cooling
think this site will have the best chance for ifr cat fog.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KEAX 012342
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A weak wave embedded in northwest upper-level flow has led to
isolated showers and thunderstorms over far northern Missouri this
afternoon. This activity will remain isolated to widely scattered in
nature, focused mainly east of the US 65 corridor and north of I-70.
Precipitation will die down quickly later this evening once daytime
heating is lost.

Little change to the weather pattern through the weekend with
persistent northwest upper flow. Increasing temperatures aloft should
increase inhibition and prevent much if any precipitation from
developing from any weak impulses that may drop down. Temperatures
will be close to average through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Warming trend to continue into the first part of the work week as
upper pattern gradually begins to flatten.  Both ECMWF and GEM
models warm H8 temperatures back to greater than 20C by Monday
particularly over northwest Missouri, which should lead to a return
of temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

A weak upper vorticity max forecast to rotate down the
upper ridge into the central Plains by Tuesday.  Feature not
particular strong but could justify some slight chance PoPs mainly
over north central and northeast Missouri.  Better signals for
precipitation chances in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe when a
surface boundary works southward into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR with generally clear skies with a few clouds early this evening
and Saturday afternoon. Could see some MVFR river valley/steam fog
at KSTJ shortly before sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KSGF 012342
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms
have developed over central and east central Missouri this
afternoon in advance of an upper level short wave. This activity
is expected to continue to move southward through the remainder of
the afternoon before dissipating around sunset.

The mild August temperatures are expected to continue through the
weekend as an upper level ridge remains ensconced over the
Rockies and we remain in northwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

By Sunday night...a short wave approaching the West Coast will
begin to flatten out the ridge which will push the upper level
trough currently over the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley. This will bring a warming trend to the region that will
return us to near normal August temperatures by Tuesday.

As this short wave moves up and over the ridge and dives
southward...a surface front will form in the lee of the Rockies on
Tuesday which will begin to affect our weather on Wednesday. Rain
chances will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon. Have chance
PoPs going in the forecast through Friday. Right now...expect
coverage to be scattered with the entire area getting somewhere
between one-quarter to one-half inch of rain through that period.
Temperatures should remain seasonal through the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Isolated showers/thunderstorms over
the region are expected to dissipate over the next hour or two and
don`t expect them to affect any lasting impact at any of the taf
sites. KSGF is the closest to existing showers.

Some areas of fog are expected to develop again tonight
toward the 08z-10z time frame. It is a little drier today and KJLN
and KSGF so am not expecting fog to be as widespread or dense.
KBBG still has dew points in the low 60s so with nighttime cooling
think this site will have the best chance for ifr cat fog.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 012342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough currently along the
Missouri River SE of KOAX heading southeast and will be the main
feature of interest tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have persisted through early this afternoon and believe they will continue
to survive into the evening hours. However...with loss of
instability...precipitation should become more showery and devoid
of thunder similar to what happened last night across northwest
Missouri.

Drier weather with decreasing cloudiness is expected behind this feature
setting the stage for another cool summer night. Other concern then turns
to fog as winds remain light/variable or calm. Combine that with fairly
clear skies expected late tonight and higher dewpoints compared to a
of days ago...did add mention of patchy fog for the entire CWA as
forecast minimums in most of these locales are several degrees
below crossover temperatures. Dense fog will be more likely in
areas which receive higher rainfall totals through this evening.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


(Saturday - Friday)

Secondary shortwave trough looks to be a bit further to the east tomorrow
than it was modeled 24 hours ago. Consequently...did drop the sch PoPs
along and east of the Mississippi River. Also yielded toward the warmer
guidance with respect to highs tomorrow due to less expected diurnal cu
as well as a slight warming in 850-hPa temperatures.

Sunday and Monday also look dry with high temperatures back to near normal
for early August.

A more active pattern still could be in the offing for the middle to late
next week as bi-state area will lie beneath quasi-zonal/WNW flow
aloft. At least a few shortwave troughs will come across during
this time frame and should interact with a tightening low-level
baroclinic zone. Only have chance PoPs Wednesday - Friday for now
due to uncertainty/timing issues...but does appear that we will be
heading into a much wetter pattern than the past couple of weeks.
As for temperatures...lows will likely remain near or even
slightly above normal but highs are forecast to return to slightly
below normal due to expected clouds/rain chances.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly dissipate
with loss of daytime heating and will shift east of the
Mississippi River between 01-02Z. Have kept VCSH in the St. Louis
metro TAF sites and at KUIN through 01Z to allow for this trend.
Main concern overnight is fog development because there is more
moisture in the air than the past few nights. Have fog between
9-13Z going at most of the terminals. Think IFR conditions will
once again be at KCPS where they were last night and light rain
has been the most persistent. Then expect dry and VFR conditions
on Saturday with scattered clouds bases developing around 5000ft
by midday with continued light winds.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect scattered showers to move away from the
terminal around 01Z. There is more moisture in the air tonight
than previous nights, so expect some VFR fog between 10-13Z.
Expect dry and VFR conditions on Saturday.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  87  65  88 /  30  10   5   5
Quincy          57  85  61  85 /  20  10   0   5
Columbia        59  87  63  88 /  20  10  10   5
Jefferson City  59  87  63  88 /  20  10  10   5
Salem           62  84  60  84 /  40  10   5   5
Farmington      61  86  60  86 /  40  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 012036
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough currently along the
Missouri River SE of KOAX heading southeast and will be the main
feature of interest tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have persisted through early this afternoon and believe they will continue
to survive into the evening hours. However...with loss of
instability...precipitation should become more showery and devoid
of thunder similar to what happened last night across northwest
Missouri.

Drier weather with decreasing cloudiness is expected behind this feature
setting the stage for another cool summer night. Other concern then turns
to fog as winds remain light/variable or calm. Combine that with fairly
clear skies expected late tonight and higher dewpoints compared to a
of days ago...did add mention of patchy fog for the entire CWA as
forecast minimums in most of these locales are several degrees
below crossover temperatures. Dense fog will be more likely in
areas which receive higher rainfall totals through this evening.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


(Saturday - Friday)

Secondary shortwave trough looks to be a bit further to the east tomorrow
than it was modeled 24 hours ago. Consequently...did drop the sch PoPs
along and east of the Mississippi River. Also yielded toward the warmer
guidance with respect to highs tomorrow due to less expected diurnal cu
as well as a slight warming in 850-hPa temperatures.

Sunday and Monday also look dry with high temperatures back to near normal
for early August.

A more active pattern still could be in the offing for the middle to late
next week as bi-state area will lie beneath quasi-zonal/WNW flow
aloft. At least a few shortwave troughs will come across during
this time frame and should interact with a tightening low-level
baroclinic zone. Only have chance PoPs Wednesday - Friday for now
due to uncertainity/timing issues...but does appear that we will be
heading into a much wetter pattern than the past couple of weeks.
As for temperatures...lows will likely remain near or even
slightly above normal but highs are forecast to return to slightly
below normal due to expected clouds/rain chances.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Sct TSRA will may impact terminals this afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected outside of any TSRA. Winds aob 7 kts thru the end of
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  87  65  88 /  20  10   0   5
Quincy          57  85  61  85 /  20  10   0   5
Columbia        59  87  63  88 /  10  10  10   5
Jefferson City  59  87  63  88 /  20  10  10   5
Salem           62  84  60  84 /  30  10   0   5
Farmington      61  86  60  86 /  30  10   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 012036
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough currently along the
Missouri River SE of KOAX heading southeast and will be the main
feature of interest tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have persisted through early this afternoon and believe they will continue
to survive into the evening hours. However...with loss of
instability...precipitation should become more showery and devoid
of thunder similar to what happened last night across northwest
Missouri.

Drier weather with decreasing cloudiness is expected behind this feature
setting the stage for another cool summer night. Other concern then turns
to fog as winds remain light/variable or calm. Combine that with fairly
clear skies expected late tonight and higher dewpoints compared to a
of days ago...did add mention of patchy fog for the entire CWA as
forecast minimums in most of these locales are several degrees
below crossover temperatures. Dense fog will be more likely in
areas which receive higher rainfall totals through this evening.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


(Saturday - Friday)

Secondary shortwave trough looks to be a bit further to the east tomorrow
than it was modeled 24 hours ago. Consequently...did drop the sch PoPs
along and east of the Mississippi River. Also yielded toward the warmer
guidance with respect to highs tomorrow due to less expected diurnal cu
as well as a slight warming in 850-hPa temperatures.

Sunday and Monday also look dry with high temperatures back to near normal
for early August.

A more active pattern still could be in the offing for the middle to late
next week as bi-state area will lie beneath quasi-zonal/WNW flow
aloft. At least a few shortwave troughs will come across during
this time frame and should interact with a tightening low-level
baroclinic zone. Only have chance PoPs Wednesday - Friday for now
due to uncertainity/timing issues...but does appear that we will be
heading into a much wetter pattern than the past couple of weeks.
As for temperatures...lows will likely remain near or even
slightly above normal but highs are forecast to return to slightly
below normal due to expected clouds/rain chances.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Sct TSRA will may impact terminals this afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected outside of any TSRA. Winds aob 7 kts thru the end of
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  87  65  88 /  20  10   0   5
Quincy          57  85  61  85 /  20  10   0   5
Columbia        59  87  63  88 /  10  10  10   5
Jefferson City  59  87  63  88 /  20  10  10   5
Salem           62  84  60  84 /  30  10   0   5
Farmington      61  86  60  86 /  30  10   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 012036
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough currently along the
Missouri River SE of KOAX heading southeast and will be the main
feature of interest tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have persisted through early this afternoon and believe they will continue
to survive into the evening hours. However...with loss of
instability...precipitation should become more showery and devoid
of thunder similar to what happened last night across northwest
Missouri.

Drier weather with decreasing cloudiness is expected behind this feature
setting the stage for another cool summer night. Other concern then turns
to fog as winds remain light/variable or calm. Combine that with fairly
clear skies expected late tonight and higher dewpoints compared to a
of days ago...did add mention of patchy fog for the entire CWA as
forecast minimums in most of these locales are several degrees
below crossover temperatures. Dense fog will be more likely in
areas which receive higher rainfall totals through this evening.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


(Saturday - Friday)

Secondary shortwave trough looks to be a bit further to the east tomorrow
than it was modeled 24 hours ago. Consequently...did drop the sch PoPs
along and east of the Mississippi River. Also yielded toward the warmer
guidance with respect to highs tomorrow due to less expected diurnal cu
as well as a slight warming in 850-hPa temperatures.

Sunday and Monday also look dry with high temperatures back to near normal
for early August.

A more active pattern still could be in the offing for the middle to late
next week as bi-state area will lie beneath quasi-zonal/WNW flow
aloft. At least a few shortwave troughs will come across during
this time frame and should interact with a tightening low-level
baroclinic zone. Only have chance PoPs Wednesday - Friday for now
due to uncertainity/timing issues...but does appear that we will be
heading into a much wetter pattern than the past couple of weeks.
As for temperatures...lows will likely remain near or even
slightly above normal but highs are forecast to return to slightly
below normal due to expected clouds/rain chances.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Sct TSRA will may impact terminals this afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected outside of any TSRA. Winds aob 7 kts thru the end of
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  87  65  88 /  20  10   0   5
Quincy          57  85  61  85 /  20  10   0   5
Columbia        59  87  63  88 /  10  10  10   5
Jefferson City  59  87  63  88 /  20  10  10   5
Salem           62  84  60  84 /  30  10   0   5
Farmington      61  86  60  86 /  30  10   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 012036
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough currently along the
Missouri River SE of KOAX heading southeast and will be the main
feature of interest tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have persisted through early this afternoon and believe they will continue
to survive into the evening hours. However...with loss of
instability...precipitation should become more showery and devoid
of thunder similar to what happened last night across northwest
Missouri.

Drier weather with decreasing cloudiness is expected behind this feature
setting the stage for another cool summer night. Other concern then turns
to fog as winds remain light/variable or calm. Combine that with fairly
clear skies expected late tonight and higher dewpoints compared to a
of days ago...did add mention of patchy fog for the entire CWA as
forecast minimums in most of these locales are several degrees
below crossover temperatures. Dense fog will be more likely in
areas which receive higher rainfall totals through this evening.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


(Saturday - Friday)

Secondary shortwave trough looks to be a bit further to the east tomorrow
than it was modeled 24 hours ago. Consequently...did drop the sch PoPs
along and east of the Mississippi River. Also yielded toward the warmer
guidance with respect to highs tomorrow due to less expected diurnal cu
as well as a slight warming in 850-hPa temperatures.

Sunday and Monday also look dry with high temperatures back to near normal
for early August.

A more active pattern still could be in the offing for the middle to late
next week as bi-state area will lie beneath quasi-zonal/WNW flow
aloft. At least a few shortwave troughs will come across during
this time frame and should interact with a tightening low-level
baroclinic zone. Only have chance PoPs Wednesday - Friday for now
due to uncertainity/timing issues...but does appear that we will be
heading into a much wetter pattern than the past couple of weeks.
As for temperatures...lows will likely remain near or even
slightly above normal but highs are forecast to return to slightly
below normal due to expected clouds/rain chances.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Sct TSRA will may impact terminals this afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected outside of any TSRA. Winds aob 7 kts thru the end of
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  87  65  88 /  20  10   0   5
Quincy          57  85  61  85 /  20  10   0   5
Columbia        59  87  63  88 /  10  10  10   5
Jefferson City  59  87  63  88 /  20  10  10   5
Salem           62  84  60  84 /  30  10   0   5
Farmington      61  86  60  86 /  30  10   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 012035
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
335 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms
have developed over central and east central Missouri this
afternoon in advance of an upper level short wave. This activity
is expected to continue to move southward through the remainder of
the afternoon before dissipating around sunset.

The mild August temperatures are expected to continue through the
weekend as an upper level ridge remains ensconced over the
Rockies and we remain in northwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

By Sunday night...a short wave approaching the West Coast will
begin to flatten out the ridge which will push the upper level
trough currently over the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley. This will bring a warming trend to the region that will
return us to near normal August temperatures by Tuesday.

As this short wave moves up and over the ridge and dives
southward...a surface front will form in the lee of the Rockies on
Tuesday which will begin to affect our weather on Wednesday. Rain
chances will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon. Have chance
PoPs going in the forecast through Friday. Right now...expect
coverage to be scattered with the entire area getting somewhere
between one-quarter to one-half inch of rain through that period.
Temperatures should remain seasonal through the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered MVFR ceilings will remain possible across southern
Missouri early this afternoon. However, VFR is expected to
prevail. There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms across
portions of southern Missouri, but coverage is expected to be too
limited for inclusion into the TAFs...but may warrant amendments
later this afternoon. The next aviation concern will then be fog
potential again from late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Some weather model guidance has recently started trending towards
IFR fog potential...especially around Springfield. We have
incorporated this potential into the TAFs with prevailing MVFR and
TEMPO groups to IFR. If these trends continue, an introduction to
LIFR may be necessary in future TAF issuances.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 012035
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
335 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms
have developed over central and east central Missouri this
afternoon in advance of an upper level short wave. This activity
is expected to continue to move southward through the remainder of
the afternoon before dissipating around sunset.

The mild August temperatures are expected to continue through the
weekend as an upper level ridge remains ensconced over the
Rockies and we remain in northwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

By Sunday night...a short wave approaching the West Coast will
begin to flatten out the ridge which will push the upper level
trough currently over the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley. This will bring a warming trend to the region that will
return us to near normal August temperatures by Tuesday.

As this short wave moves up and over the ridge and dives
southward...a surface front will form in the lee of the Rockies on
Tuesday which will begin to affect our weather on Wednesday. Rain
chances will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon. Have chance
PoPs going in the forecast through Friday. Right now...expect
coverage to be scattered with the entire area getting somewhere
between one-quarter to one-half inch of rain through that period.
Temperatures should remain seasonal through the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered MVFR ceilings will remain possible across southern
Missouri early this afternoon. However, VFR is expected to
prevail. There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms across
portions of southern Missouri, but coverage is expected to be too
limited for inclusion into the TAFs...but may warrant amendments
later this afternoon. The next aviation concern will then be fog
potential again from late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Some weather model guidance has recently started trending towards
IFR fog potential...especially around Springfield. We have
incorporated this potential into the TAFs with prevailing MVFR and
TEMPO groups to IFR. If these trends continue, an introduction to
LIFR may be necessary in future TAF issuances.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KEAX 011945
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A weak wave embedded in northwest upper-level flow has led to
isolated showers and thunderstorms over far northern Missouri this
afternoon. This activity will remain isolated to widely scattered in
nature, focused mainly east of the US 65 corridor and north of I-70.
Precipitation will die down quickly later this evening once daytime
heating is lost.

Little change to the weather pattern through the weekend with
persistent northwest upper flow. Increasing temperatures aloft should
increase inhibition and prevent much if any precipitation from
developing from any weak impulses that may drop down. Temperatures
will be close to average through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Warming trend to continue into the first part of the work week as
upper pattern gradually begins to flatten.  Both ECMWF and GEM
models warm H8 temperatures back to greater than 20C by Monday
particularly over northwest Missouri, which should lead to a return
of temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

A weak upper vorticity max forecast to rotate down the
upper ridge into the central Plains by Tuesday.  Feature not
particular strong but could justify some slight chance PoPs mainly
over north central and northeast Missouri.  Better signals for
precipitation chances in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe when a
surface boundary works southward into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

No significant weather this TAF period. Developing cumulus will remain
well into VFR, dissipating after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 011945
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A weak wave embedded in northwest upper-level flow has led to
isolated showers and thunderstorms over far northern Missouri this
afternoon. This activity will remain isolated to widely scattered in
nature, focused mainly east of the US 65 corridor and north of I-70.
Precipitation will die down quickly later this evening once daytime
heating is lost.

Little change to the weather pattern through the weekend with
persistent northwest upper flow. Increasing temperatures aloft should
increase inhibition and prevent much if any precipitation from
developing from any weak impulses that may drop down. Temperatures
will be close to average through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Warming trend to continue into the first part of the work week as
upper pattern gradually begins to flatten.  Both ECMWF and GEM
models warm H8 temperatures back to greater than 20C by Monday
particularly over northwest Missouri, which should lead to a return
of temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

A weak upper vorticity max forecast to rotate down the
upper ridge into the central Plains by Tuesday.  Feature not
particular strong but could justify some slight chance PoPs mainly
over north central and northeast Missouri.  Better signals for
precipitation chances in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe when a
surface boundary works southward into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

No significant weather this TAF period. Developing cumulus will remain
well into VFR, dissipating after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 011945
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A weak wave embedded in northwest upper-level flow has led to
isolated showers and thunderstorms over far northern Missouri this
afternoon. This activity will remain isolated to widely scattered in
nature, focused mainly east of the US 65 corridor and north of I-70.
Precipitation will die down quickly later this evening once daytime
heating is lost.

Little change to the weather pattern through the weekend with
persistent northwest upper flow. Increasing temperatures aloft should
increase inhibition and prevent much if any precipitation from
developing from any weak impulses that may drop down. Temperatures
will be close to average through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Warming trend to continue into the first part of the work week as
upper pattern gradually begins to flatten.  Both ECMWF and GEM
models warm H8 temperatures back to greater than 20C by Monday
particularly over northwest Missouri, which should lead to a return
of temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

A weak upper vorticity max forecast to rotate down the
upper ridge into the central Plains by Tuesday.  Feature not
particular strong but could justify some slight chance PoPs mainly
over north central and northeast Missouri.  Better signals for
precipitation chances in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe when a
surface boundary works southward into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

No significant weather this TAF period. Developing cumulus will remain
well into VFR, dissipating after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 011945
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A weak wave embedded in northwest upper-level flow has led to
isolated showers and thunderstorms over far northern Missouri this
afternoon. This activity will remain isolated to widely scattered in
nature, focused mainly east of the US 65 corridor and north of I-70.
Precipitation will die down quickly later this evening once daytime
heating is lost.

Little change to the weather pattern through the weekend with
persistent northwest upper flow. Increasing temperatures aloft should
increase inhibition and prevent much if any precipitation from
developing from any weak impulses that may drop down. Temperatures
will be close to average through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Warming trend to continue into the first part of the work week as
upper pattern gradually begins to flatten.  Both ECMWF and GEM
models warm H8 temperatures back to greater than 20C by Monday
particularly over northwest Missouri, which should lead to a return
of temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

A weak upper vorticity max forecast to rotate down the
upper ridge into the central Plains by Tuesday.  Feature not
particular strong but could justify some slight chance PoPs mainly
over north central and northeast Missouri.  Better signals for
precipitation chances in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe when a
surface boundary works southward into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

No significant weather this TAF period. Developing cumulus will remain
well into VFR, dissipating after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KSGF 011750
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of fog have developed across portions of extreme southeastern
Kansas and southern Missouri early this morning. Visibilities will be
reduced to less than a mile at times and will vary greatly over
short distances. The fog will burn off shortly after sunrise this
morning.

The region remains in a northwest flow upper level pattern and
a weak upper level disturbance is currently pushing south into
northern Missouri early this morning. This disturbance will
continue to track southeast today and will spark a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon into
early this evening, mainly along and east of the Highway 65
corridor. Severe weather is not expected with this activity as
instability will not be overly strong. A few of the stronger
storms though will be capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon where better mid level moisture
and better theta-E differences will be present. This activity will
be hit and miss in nature, will not affect everyone, and will
dissipate fairly quickly this evening.

The area being in northwest flow and the disturbance reinforcing
the cooler air mass over the area will result in another day of
below normal temperatures as highs warm into the lower to middle
80s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Below normal conditions will continue into Saturday as highs top
out in the middle 80s and lows drop into the lower to middle 60s
Saturday night. Another weak disturbance will track through the
northwest flow aloft and through the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. At this time have left out any chances of showers and
thunderstorms with this feature as mid level moisture will be
limited and forcing will be limited and is not expected to be able
to over come the dry air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at |315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A warming trend will occur on Sunday into early next week as an upper
level ridge builds east into the Plains. Temperatures will return
to near normal early next week with highs in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s.

An upper level shortwave trough will push southeast across the northern
Plains during the middle of next week and will flatten the upper
level ridge. The trough could kick off some scattered thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered MVFR ceilings will remain possible across southern
Missouri early this afternoon. However, VFR is expected to
prevail. There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms across
portions of southern Missouri, but coverage is expected to be too
limited for inclusion into the TAFs...but may warrant amendments
later this afternoon. The next aviation concern will then be fog
potential again from late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Some weather model guidance has recently started trending towards
IFR fog potential...especially around Springfield. We have
incorporated this potential into the TAFs with prevailing MVFR and
TEMPO groups to IFR. If these trends continue, an introduction to
LIFR may be necessary in future TAF issuances.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 011750
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of fog have developed across portions of extreme southeastern
Kansas and southern Missouri early this morning. Visibilities will be
reduced to less than a mile at times and will vary greatly over
short distances. The fog will burn off shortly after sunrise this
morning.

The region remains in a northwest flow upper level pattern and
a weak upper level disturbance is currently pushing south into
northern Missouri early this morning. This disturbance will
continue to track southeast today and will spark a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon into
early this evening, mainly along and east of the Highway 65
corridor. Severe weather is not expected with this activity as
instability will not be overly strong. A few of the stronger
storms though will be capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon where better mid level moisture
and better theta-E differences will be present. This activity will
be hit and miss in nature, will not affect everyone, and will
dissipate fairly quickly this evening.

The area being in northwest flow and the disturbance reinforcing
the cooler air mass over the area will result in another day of
below normal temperatures as highs warm into the lower to middle
80s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Below normal conditions will continue into Saturday as highs top
out in the middle 80s and lows drop into the lower to middle 60s
Saturday night. Another weak disturbance will track through the
northwest flow aloft and through the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. At this time have left out any chances of showers and
thunderstorms with this feature as mid level moisture will be
limited and forcing will be limited and is not expected to be able
to over come the dry air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at |315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A warming trend will occur on Sunday into early next week as an upper
level ridge builds east into the Plains. Temperatures will return
to near normal early next week with highs in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s.

An upper level shortwave trough will push southeast across the northern
Plains during the middle of next week and will flatten the upper
level ridge. The trough could kick off some scattered thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered MVFR ceilings will remain possible across southern
Missouri early this afternoon. However, VFR is expected to
prevail. There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms across
portions of southern Missouri, but coverage is expected to be too
limited for inclusion into the TAFs...but may warrant amendments
later this afternoon. The next aviation concern will then be fog
potential again from late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Some weather model guidance has recently started trending towards
IFR fog potential...especially around Springfield. We have
incorporated this potential into the TAFs with prevailing MVFR and
TEMPO groups to IFR. If these trends continue, an introduction to
LIFR may be necessary in future TAF issuances.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 011749
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered showers look to persist past sunrise this morning,
especially across north central Missouri. Have adjusted forecast to
up the POPs for this morning, but still left them in the chance range
as the high cloud base and the scattered areal coverage indicate that
anyone --even in north central Missouri-- has a better chance of
staying dry than wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

No significant weather this TAF period. Developing cumulus will remain
well into VFR, dissipating after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 011749
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered showers look to persist past sunrise this morning,
especially across north central Missouri. Have adjusted forecast to
up the POPs for this morning, but still left them in the chance range
as the high cloud base and the scattered areal coverage indicate that
anyone --even in north central Missouri-- has a better chance of
staying dry than wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

No significant weather this TAF period. Developing cumulus will remain
well into VFR, dissipating after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KLSX 011740
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Primary forecast issue for today is PoPs.  Dirty surface ridge
remains in control of the weather today.  A shortwave will pass over
the area on northwest flow aloft.  Looks like a combination of broad
mid-level lift ahead of the shortwave and weak low level moisture
convergence east of the surface-850mb reflection of the shortwave
which is causing the precip currently over northwest Missouri.
Expect these features to continue to migrate southeastward through
the day, and short-range guidance has the shortwave sharpening up as
it approaches the base of the longwave trof east of the
Mississippi.  All short-range guidance has precip over the area to a
greater or lesser extent today, so have increasing PoPs through the
day from slight chance to chance category as diurnal heating becomes
a greater factor.  However, with the lack of a true surface trigger
have kept PoPs at 30% or less.  This may ultimately need to be
increased if afternoon thunderstorms can get organized into
clusters.  This is certainly possible if forecast SBCAPE 1000-2000
J/kg is realized.  Highs today will be highly dependent on cloud
cover and afternoon precip.  Used a combination of persistence and
MOS which yielded temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday
in the low to mid 80s.  Still relatively mild for August 1st.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America thru
Tuesday, although it will slowly de-amplify heading into early next
week.  Some upper level disturbances from this resultant NW flow can
be expected early, with one this evening--a leftover from today--and
another possibly rolling down for Saturday.  What does develop today
should carryover a bit into this evening and maintained a
mentionable slight chance PoP until about 9pm with the loss of
heating and upper level support moving downstream then should shut
things down.  Another upper level disturbance may slide down on
Saturday as well, although the signals for this are considerably
less clear and moisture should be a bit more limited than with the
first disturbance today with the latter taking some of the moisture
with it as they are oft to do in the wake of passage of an upper
TROF axis.  Kept some low PoPs around for Saturday, maintaining the
timing of late morning and afternoon, but trimmed its expanse and
confined more to the eastern Ozarks and southwest IL.

Otherwise, lack of upper level support and surface fronts with
marginal levels of moisture for August will result in PoPs largely
being a wash and favor values below climo--climo being around 20%.

By mid-late next week, a storm over the upper Midwest appears to get
caught in the upper level "undertow" and stalls as the overall
regime becomes more zonal and split, and so not as progressive as
one might initially think.  A warm frontal boundary appears to
extend into the area late Wednesday with approach of a cold front on
Thursday representing the best widespread chance for rain over the
next seven days--with PoPs to show for it--about 40%.

Max temps on Thursday were already within 2-3 degrees of normal and
should effectively be at normal values by the latter half of the
weekend and will even edge above normal for a period next week
before another return of some cooler air for late week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Sct TSRA will may impact terminals this afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected outside of any TSRA. Winds aob 7 kts thru the end of
the period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 011740
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Primary forecast issue for today is PoPs.  Dirty surface ridge
remains in control of the weather today.  A shortwave will pass over
the area on northwest flow aloft.  Looks like a combination of broad
mid-level lift ahead of the shortwave and weak low level moisture
convergence east of the surface-850mb reflection of the shortwave
which is causing the precip currently over northwest Missouri.
Expect these features to continue to migrate southeastward through
the day, and short-range guidance has the shortwave sharpening up as
it approaches the base of the longwave trof east of the
Mississippi.  All short-range guidance has precip over the area to a
greater or lesser extent today, so have increasing PoPs through the
day from slight chance to chance category as diurnal heating becomes
a greater factor.  However, with the lack of a true surface trigger
have kept PoPs at 30% or less.  This may ultimately need to be
increased if afternoon thunderstorms can get organized into
clusters.  This is certainly possible if forecast SBCAPE 1000-2000
J/kg is realized.  Highs today will be highly dependent on cloud
cover and afternoon precip.  Used a combination of persistence and
MOS which yielded temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday
in the low to mid 80s.  Still relatively mild for August 1st.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America thru
Tuesday, although it will slowly de-amplify heading into early next
week.  Some upper level disturbances from this resultant NW flow can
be expected early, with one this evening--a leftover from today--and
another possibly rolling down for Saturday.  What does develop today
should carryover a bit into this evening and maintained a
mentionable slight chance PoP until about 9pm with the loss of
heating and upper level support moving downstream then should shut
things down.  Another upper level disturbance may slide down on
Saturday as well, although the signals for this are considerably
less clear and moisture should be a bit more limited than with the
first disturbance today with the latter taking some of the moisture
with it as they are oft to do in the wake of passage of an upper
TROF axis.  Kept some low PoPs around for Saturday, maintaining the
timing of late morning and afternoon, but trimmed its expanse and
confined more to the eastern Ozarks and southwest IL.

Otherwise, lack of upper level support and surface fronts with
marginal levels of moisture for August will result in PoPs largely
being a wash and favor values below climo--climo being around 20%.

By mid-late next week, a storm over the upper Midwest appears to get
caught in the upper level "undertow" and stalls as the overall
regime becomes more zonal and split, and so not as progressive as
one might initially think.  A warm frontal boundary appears to
extend into the area late Wednesday with approach of a cold front on
Thursday representing the best widespread chance for rain over the
next seven days--with PoPs to show for it--about 40%.

Max temps on Thursday were already within 2-3 degrees of normal and
should effectively be at normal values by the latter half of the
weekend and will even edge above normal for a period next week
before another return of some cooler air for late week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Sct TSRA will may impact terminals this afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected outside of any TSRA. Winds aob 7 kts thru the end of
the period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 011740
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Primary forecast issue for today is PoPs.  Dirty surface ridge
remains in control of the weather today.  A shortwave will pass over
the area on northwest flow aloft.  Looks like a combination of broad
mid-level lift ahead of the shortwave and weak low level moisture
convergence east of the surface-850mb reflection of the shortwave
which is causing the precip currently over northwest Missouri.
Expect these features to continue to migrate southeastward through
the day, and short-range guidance has the shortwave sharpening up as
it approaches the base of the longwave trof east of the
Mississippi.  All short-range guidance has precip over the area to a
greater or lesser extent today, so have increasing PoPs through the
day from slight chance to chance category as diurnal heating becomes
a greater factor.  However, with the lack of a true surface trigger
have kept PoPs at 30% or less.  This may ultimately need to be
increased if afternoon thunderstorms can get organized into
clusters.  This is certainly possible if forecast SBCAPE 1000-2000
J/kg is realized.  Highs today will be highly dependent on cloud
cover and afternoon precip.  Used a combination of persistence and
MOS which yielded temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday
in the low to mid 80s.  Still relatively mild for August 1st.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America thru
Tuesday, although it will slowly de-amplify heading into early next
week.  Some upper level disturbances from this resultant NW flow can
be expected early, with one this evening--a leftover from today--and
another possibly rolling down for Saturday.  What does develop today
should carryover a bit into this evening and maintained a
mentionable slight chance PoP until about 9pm with the loss of
heating and upper level support moving downstream then should shut
things down.  Another upper level disturbance may slide down on
Saturday as well, although the signals for this are considerably
less clear and moisture should be a bit more limited than with the
first disturbance today with the latter taking some of the moisture
with it as they are oft to do in the wake of passage of an upper
TROF axis.  Kept some low PoPs around for Saturday, maintaining the
timing of late morning and afternoon, but trimmed its expanse and
confined more to the eastern Ozarks and southwest IL.

Otherwise, lack of upper level support and surface fronts with
marginal levels of moisture for August will result in PoPs largely
being a wash and favor values below climo--climo being around 20%.

By mid-late next week, a storm over the upper Midwest appears to get
caught in the upper level "undertow" and stalls as the overall
regime becomes more zonal and split, and so not as progressive as
one might initially think.  A warm frontal boundary appears to
extend into the area late Wednesday with approach of a cold front on
Thursday representing the best widespread chance for rain over the
next seven days--with PoPs to show for it--about 40%.

Max temps on Thursday were already within 2-3 degrees of normal and
should effectively be at normal values by the latter half of the
weekend and will even edge above normal for a period next week
before another return of some cooler air for late week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Sct TSRA will may impact terminals this afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected outside of any TSRA. Winds aob 7 kts thru the end of
the period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 011740
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Primary forecast issue for today is PoPs.  Dirty surface ridge
remains in control of the weather today.  A shortwave will pass over
the area on northwest flow aloft.  Looks like a combination of broad
mid-level lift ahead of the shortwave and weak low level moisture
convergence east of the surface-850mb reflection of the shortwave
which is causing the precip currently over northwest Missouri.
Expect these features to continue to migrate southeastward through
the day, and short-range guidance has the shortwave sharpening up as
it approaches the base of the longwave trof east of the
Mississippi.  All short-range guidance has precip over the area to a
greater or lesser extent today, so have increasing PoPs through the
day from slight chance to chance category as diurnal heating becomes
a greater factor.  However, with the lack of a true surface trigger
have kept PoPs at 30% or less.  This may ultimately need to be
increased if afternoon thunderstorms can get organized into
clusters.  This is certainly possible if forecast SBCAPE 1000-2000
J/kg is realized.  Highs today will be highly dependent on cloud
cover and afternoon precip.  Used a combination of persistence and
MOS which yielded temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday
in the low to mid 80s.  Still relatively mild for August 1st.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America thru
Tuesday, although it will slowly de-amplify heading into early next
week.  Some upper level disturbances from this resultant NW flow can
be expected early, with one this evening--a leftover from today--and
another possibly rolling down for Saturday.  What does develop today
should carryover a bit into this evening and maintained a
mentionable slight chance PoP until about 9pm with the loss of
heating and upper level support moving downstream then should shut
things down.  Another upper level disturbance may slide down on
Saturday as well, although the signals for this are considerably
less clear and moisture should be a bit more limited than with the
first disturbance today with the latter taking some of the moisture
with it as they are oft to do in the wake of passage of an upper
TROF axis.  Kept some low PoPs around for Saturday, maintaining the
timing of late morning and afternoon, but trimmed its expanse and
confined more to the eastern Ozarks and southwest IL.

Otherwise, lack of upper level support and surface fronts with
marginal levels of moisture for August will result in PoPs largely
being a wash and favor values below climo--climo being around 20%.

By mid-late next week, a storm over the upper Midwest appears to get
caught in the upper level "undertow" and stalls as the overall
regime becomes more zonal and split, and so not as progressive as
one might initially think.  A warm frontal boundary appears to
extend into the area late Wednesday with approach of a cold front on
Thursday representing the best widespread chance for rain over the
next seven days--with PoPs to show for it--about 40%.

Max temps on Thursday were already within 2-3 degrees of normal and
should effectively be at normal values by the latter half of the
weekend and will even edge above normal for a period next week
before another return of some cooler air for late week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Sct TSRA will may impact terminals this afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected outside of any TSRA. Winds aob 7 kts thru the end of
the period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 011204
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
704 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Primary forecast issue for today is PoPs.  Dirty surface ridge
remains in control of the weather today.  A shortwave will pass over
the area on northwest flow aloft.  Looks like a combination of broad
mid-level lift ahead of the shortwave and weak low level moisture
convergence east of the surface-850mb reflection of the shortwave
which is causing the precip currently over northwest Missouri.
Expect these features to continue to migrate southeastward through
the day, and short-range guidance has the shortwave sharpening up as
it approaches the base of the longwave trof east of the
Mississippi.  All short-range guidance has precip over the area to a
greater or lesser extent today, so have increasing PoPs through the
day from slight chance to chance category as diurnal heating becomes
a greater factor.  However, with the lack of a true surface trigger
have kept PoPs at 30% or less.  This may ultimately need to be
increased if afternoon thunderstorms can get organized into
clusters.  This is certainly possible if forecast SBCAPE 1000-2000
J/kg is realized.  Highs today will be highly dependent on cloud
cover and afternoon precip.  Used a combination of persistence and
MOS which yielded temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday
in the low to mid 80s.  Still relatively mild for August 1st.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America thru
Tuesday, although it will slowly de-amplify heading into early next
week.  Some upper level disturbances from this resultant NW flow can
be expected early, with one this evening--a leftover from today--and
another possibly rolling down for Saturday.  What does develop today
should carryover a bit into this evening and maintained a
mentionable slight chance PoP until about 9pm with the loss of
heating and upper level support moving downstream then should shut
things down.  Another upper level disturbance may slide down on
Saturday as well, although the signals for this are considerably
less clear and moisture should be a bit more limited than with the
first disturbance today with the latter taking some of the moisture
with it as they are oft to do in the wake of passage of an upper
TROF axis.  Kept some low PoPs around for Saturday, maintaining the
timing of late morning and afternoon, but trimmed its expanse and
confined more to the eastern Ozarks and southwest IL.

Otherwise, lack of upper level support and surface fronts with
marginal levels of moisture for August will result in PoPs largely
being a wash and favor values below climo--climo being around 20%.

By mid-late next week, a storm over the upper Midwest appears to get
caught in the upper level "undertow" and stalls as the overall
regime becomes more zonal and split, and so not as progressive as
one might initially think.  A warm frontal boundary appears to
extend into the area late Wednesday with approach of a cold front on
Thursday representing the best widespread chance for rain over the
next seven days--with PoPs to show for it--about 40%.

Max temps on Thursday were already within 2-3 degrees of normal and
should effectively be at normal values by the latter half of the
weekend and will even edge above normal for a period next week
before another return of some cooler air for late week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Primary concern this morning is areas of fog and low ceilings
across the eastern Ozarks extending northeast into southwest
Illinois. Fog is trying to trickle into the southern portions of
the St. Louis Metro area. Within these areas, widespread IFR with
visibilities at or below 2SM and ceilings as low as 200FT prevail.
Expect flight conditions to improve between 12Z-14Z. After that,
VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail with light and
variable wind. An upper level disturbance will produce widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms later today. A few of the storms will
likely be strong enough to produce isolated MVFR or even IFR
conditions in moderate to heavy rain. Expect showers and storms to
dissipate quickly after sunset. Fog will be possible again late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail at Lambert today. Fog/low
ceilings are expected to stay south of the terminal. Attention
turns to this afternoon when an upper level disturbance is
expected to produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Think it will be hit and miss in the STL Metro area, but if a
storm does drift over the terminal visibility could briefly.drop
below VFR. Expect VFR to prevail tonight. If the terminal does
receive rain, there could be some light fog late.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 011204
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
704 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Primary forecast issue for today is PoPs.  Dirty surface ridge
remains in control of the weather today.  A shortwave will pass over
the area on northwest flow aloft.  Looks like a combination of broad
mid-level lift ahead of the shortwave and weak low level moisture
convergence east of the surface-850mb reflection of the shortwave
which is causing the precip currently over northwest Missouri.
Expect these features to continue to migrate southeastward through
the day, and short-range guidance has the shortwave sharpening up as
it approaches the base of the longwave trof east of the
Mississippi.  All short-range guidance has precip over the area to a
greater or lesser extent today, so have increasing PoPs through the
day from slight chance to chance category as diurnal heating becomes
a greater factor.  However, with the lack of a true surface trigger
have kept PoPs at 30% or less.  This may ultimately need to be
increased if afternoon thunderstorms can get organized into
clusters.  This is certainly possible if forecast SBCAPE 1000-2000
J/kg is realized.  Highs today will be highly dependent on cloud
cover and afternoon precip.  Used a combination of persistence and
MOS which yielded temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday
in the low to mid 80s.  Still relatively mild for August 1st.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America thru
Tuesday, although it will slowly de-amplify heading into early next
week.  Some upper level disturbances from this resultant NW flow can
be expected early, with one this evening--a leftover from today--and
another possibly rolling down for Saturday.  What does develop today
should carryover a bit into this evening and maintained a
mentionable slight chance PoP until about 9pm with the loss of
heating and upper level support moving downstream then should shut
things down.  Another upper level disturbance may slide down on
Saturday as well, although the signals for this are considerably
less clear and moisture should be a bit more limited than with the
first disturbance today with the latter taking some of the moisture
with it as they are oft to do in the wake of passage of an upper
TROF axis.  Kept some low PoPs around for Saturday, maintaining the
timing of late morning and afternoon, but trimmed its expanse and
confined more to the eastern Ozarks and southwest IL.

Otherwise, lack of upper level support and surface fronts with
marginal levels of moisture for August will result in PoPs largely
being a wash and favor values below climo--climo being around 20%.

By mid-late next week, a storm over the upper Midwest appears to get
caught in the upper level "undertow" and stalls as the overall
regime becomes more zonal and split, and so not as progressive as
one might initially think.  A warm frontal boundary appears to
extend into the area late Wednesday with approach of a cold front on
Thursday representing the best widespread chance for rain over the
next seven days--with PoPs to show for it--about 40%.

Max temps on Thursday were already within 2-3 degrees of normal and
should effectively be at normal values by the latter half of the
weekend and will even edge above normal for a period next week
before another return of some cooler air for late week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Primary concern this morning is areas of fog and low ceilings
across the eastern Ozarks extending northeast into southwest
Illinois. Fog is trying to trickle into the southern portions of
the St. Louis Metro area. Within these areas, widespread IFR with
visibilities at or below 2SM and ceilings as low as 200FT prevail.
Expect flight conditions to improve between 12Z-14Z. After that,
VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail with light and
variable wind. An upper level disturbance will produce widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms later today. A few of the storms will
likely be strong enough to produce isolated MVFR or even IFR
conditions in moderate to heavy rain. Expect showers and storms to
dissipate quickly after sunset. Fog will be possible again late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail at Lambert today. Fog/low
ceilings are expected to stay south of the terminal. Attention
turns to this afternoon when an upper level disturbance is
expected to produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Think it will be hit and miss in the STL Metro area, but if a
storm does drift over the terminal visibility could briefly.drop
below VFR. Expect VFR to prevail tonight. If the terminal does
receive rain, there could be some light fog late.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 011121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered showers look to persist past sunrise this morning,
especially across north central Missouri. Have adjusted forecast to
up the POPs for this morning, but still left them in the chance range
as the high cloud base and the scattered areal coverage indicate that
anyone --even in north central Missouri-- has a better chance of
staying dry than wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours even with
scattered showers floating across the terminals. Ceilings and
reductions in visibility look to stay in the VFR range with the
showers that may effect the terminals. Otherwise, expect light and
variable wind this morning to swing to the south and southeast
this afternoon. More widely scattered showers may pop-up this
afternoon, but confidence is very low that anything will effect the
TAF sites.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 011121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered showers look to persist past sunrise this morning,
especially across north central Missouri. Have adjusted forecast to
up the POPs for this morning, but still left them in the chance range
as the high cloud base and the scattered areal coverage indicate that
anyone --even in north central Missouri-- has a better chance of
staying dry than wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours even with
scattered showers floating across the terminals. Ceilings and
reductions in visibility look to stay in the VFR range with the
showers that may effect the terminals. Otherwise, expect light and
variable wind this morning to swing to the south and southeast
this afternoon. More widely scattered showers may pop-up this
afternoon, but confidence is very low that anything will effect the
TAF sites.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 011121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered showers look to persist past sunrise this morning,
especially across north central Missouri. Have adjusted forecast to
up the POPs for this morning, but still left them in the chance range
as the high cloud base and the scattered areal coverage indicate that
anyone --even in north central Missouri-- has a better chance of
staying dry than wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours even with
scattered showers floating across the terminals. Ceilings and
reductions in visibility look to stay in the VFR range with the
showers that may effect the terminals. Otherwise, expect light and
variable wind this morning to swing to the south and southeast
this afternoon. More widely scattered showers may pop-up this
afternoon, but confidence is very low that anything will effect the
TAF sites.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 011121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered showers look to persist past sunrise this morning,
especially across north central Missouri. Have adjusted forecast to
up the POPs for this morning, but still left them in the chance range
as the high cloud base and the scattered areal coverage indicate that
anyone --even in north central Missouri-- has a better chance of
staying dry than wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours even with
scattered showers floating across the terminals. Ceilings and
reductions in visibility look to stay in the VFR range with the
showers that may effect the terminals. Otherwise, expect light and
variable wind this morning to swing to the south and southeast
this afternoon. More widely scattered showers may pop-up this
afternoon, but confidence is very low that anything will effect the
TAF sites.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 011113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours even with
scattered showers floating across the terminals. Ceilings and
reductions in visibility look to stay in the VFR range with the
showers that may effect the terminals. Otherwise, expect light and
variable wind this morning to swing to the south and southeast
this afternoon. More widely scattered showers may pop-up this
afternoon, but confidence is very low that anything will effect the
TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 011113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours even with
scattered showers floating across the terminals. Ceilings and
reductions in visibility look to stay in the VFR range with the
showers that may effect the terminals. Otherwise, expect light and
variable wind this morning to swing to the south and southeast
this afternoon. More widely scattered showers may pop-up this
afternoon, but confidence is very low that anything will effect the
TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KSGF 011040
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of fog have developed across portions of extreme southeastern
Kansas and southern Missouri early this morning. Visibilities will be
reduced to less than a mile at times and will vary greatly over
short distances. The fog will burn off shortly after sunrise this
morning.

The region remains in a northwest flow upper level pattern and
a weak upper level disturbance is currently pushing south into
northern Missouri early this morning. This disturbance will
continue to track southeast today and will spark a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon into
early this evening, mainly along and east of the Highway 65
corridor. Severe weather is not expected with this activity as
instability will not be overly strong. A few of the stronger
storms though will be capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon where better mid level moisture
and better theta-E differences will be present. This activity will
be hit and miss in nature, will not affect everyone, and will
dissipate fairly quickly this evening.

The area being in northwest flow and the disturbance reinforcing
the cooler air mass over the area will result in another day of
below normal temperatures as highs warm into the lower to middle
80s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Below normal conditions will continue into Saturday as highs top
out in the middle 80s and lows drop into the lower to middle 60s
Saturday night. Another weak disturbance will track through the
northwest flow aloft and through the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. At this time have left out any chances of showers and
thunderstorms with this feature as mid level moisture will be
limited and forcing will be limited and is not expected to be able
to over come the dry air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at |315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A warming trend will occur on Sunday into early next week as an upper
level ridge builds east into the Plains. Temperatures will return
to near normal early next week with highs in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s.

An upper level shortwave trough will push southeast across the northern
Plains during the middle of next week and will flatten the upper
level ridge. The trough could kick off some scattered thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of dense fog developed overnight and still continues for
locations along and south of a Joplin to Eminence line in southern
Missouri, including all 3 terminals. BBG/SGF have had the more
steady dense fog while JLN has been variable in visibility. Will
see areas of dense fog persist until around 13-14z before burning
off. Chance of showers/thunder today in association with an upper
level shortwave, however better chances to be east of terminals
and am not including in TAFS at this point. May see more fog
develop again late tonight as winds diminish back to light and variable.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-088-
     090>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 011040
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of fog have developed across portions of extreme southeastern
Kansas and southern Missouri early this morning. Visibilities will be
reduced to less than a mile at times and will vary greatly over
short distances. The fog will burn off shortly after sunrise this
morning.

The region remains in a northwest flow upper level pattern and
a weak upper level disturbance is currently pushing south into
northern Missouri early this morning. This disturbance will
continue to track southeast today and will spark a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon into
early this evening, mainly along and east of the Highway 65
corridor. Severe weather is not expected with this activity as
instability will not be overly strong. A few of the stronger
storms though will be capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon where better mid level moisture
and better theta-E differences will be present. This activity will
be hit and miss in nature, will not affect everyone, and will
dissipate fairly quickly this evening.

The area being in northwest flow and the disturbance reinforcing
the cooler air mass over the area will result in another day of
below normal temperatures as highs warm into the lower to middle
80s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Below normal conditions will continue into Saturday as highs top
out in the middle 80s and lows drop into the lower to middle 60s
Saturday night. Another weak disturbance will track through the
northwest flow aloft and through the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. At this time have left out any chances of showers and
thunderstorms with this feature as mid level moisture will be
limited and forcing will be limited and is not expected to be able
to over come the dry air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at |315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A warming trend will occur on Sunday into early next week as an upper
level ridge builds east into the Plains. Temperatures will return
to near normal early next week with highs in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s.

An upper level shortwave trough will push southeast across the northern
Plains during the middle of next week and will flatten the upper
level ridge. The trough could kick off some scattered thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of dense fog developed overnight and still continues for
locations along and south of a Joplin to Eminence line in southern
Missouri, including all 3 terminals. BBG/SGF have had the more
steady dense fog while JLN has been variable in visibility. Will
see areas of dense fog persist until around 13-14z before burning
off. Chance of showers/thunder today in association with an upper
level shortwave, however better chances to be east of terminals
and am not including in TAFS at this point. May see more fog
develop again late tonight as winds diminish back to light and variable.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-088-
     090>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 010847
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Only hitch looks
to be vicinity showers that may effect the terminals between now and
sunrise. Otherwise, a light and variable wind will prevail this
morning with a light --speeds less than 10 MPH-- southeast wind
developing late this morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 010847
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A benign end to July leads to a benign beginning to August.
Satellite imagery this morning shows an amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, with a large negative height anomaly across the
Hudson Bay/Great Lakes keeping a pleasant northwest flow in place
across the Central Plains States. Of note in the flow this morning
is a modest little bit of energy zipping southeast which has induced
some high based --associated ceilings 8000 to 9000 FT-- showers
across southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri.

Morning showers are not quite widespread, with little precipitation
noted making it to the ground. Expect this trend to continue through
sunrise so have only put slight chance POPs in the forecast for this
morning. Vorticity maximum that seems to be driving this will shift
farther southeast across Missouri today, keeping the potential for
more widely scattered pop-up storms this afternoon across our
region. Have focused these POPs across the eastern half of the
forecast area, though some of the higher resolution models advertise
this scattered activity bubbling up as far west as eastern Kansas
this afternoon.

Otherwise, high temperatures today and Saturday will both be similar
to Thursday`s --low to mid 80s-- with a warming trend as we move
through Sunday into Monday thanks to the flattening of the ridge to
our west. This will provide us with near normal temperatures for
early August by the beginning of next work week. However, these
"near normal" temperatures might not last very long as another
trough is currently expected to swing through the Plains States
during the middle of next week. This could leave Monday through
Wednesday will hot and humid conditions --heat index in the 90s--
across the region, but the cold front the trough will bring mid-week
will likely knock readings back down and give us our next best
chance at widespread rainfall.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Only hitch looks
to be vicinity showers that may effect the terminals between now and
sunrise. Otherwise, a light and variable wind will prevail this
morning with a light --speeds less than 10 MPH-- southeast wind
developing late this morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KLSX 010820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Primary forecast issue for today is PoPs.  Dirty surface ridge
remains in control of the weather today.  A shortwave will pass over
the area on northwest flow aloft.  Looks like a combination of broad
mid-level lift ahead of the shortwave and weak low level moisture
convergence east of the surface-850mb reflection of the shortwave
which is causing the precip currently over northwest Missouri.
Expect these features to continue to migrate southeastward through
the day, and short-range guidance has the shortwave sharpening up as
it approaches the base of the longwave trof east of the
Mississippi.  All short-range guidance has precip over the area to a
greater or lesser extent today, so have increasing PoPs through the
day from slight chance to chance category as diurnal heating becomes
a greater factor.  However, with the lack of a true surface trigger
have kept PoPs at 30% or less.  This may ultimately need to be
increased if afternoon thunderstorms can get organized into
clusters.  This is certainly possible if forecast SBCAPE 1000-2000
J/kg is realized.  Highs today will be highly dependent on cloud
cover and afternoon precip.  Used a combination of persistence and
MOS which yielded temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday
in the low to mid 80s.  Still relatively mild for August 1st.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America thru
Tuesday, although it will slowly de-amplify heading into early next
week.  Some upper level disturbances from this resultant NW flow can
be expected early, with one this evening--a leftover from today--and
another possibly rolling down for Saturday.  What does develop today
should carryover a bit into this evening and maintained a
mentionable slight chance PoP until about 9pm with the loss of
heating and upper level support moving downstream then should shut
things down.  Another upper level disturbance may slide down on
Saturday as well, although the signals for this are considerably
less clear and moisture should be a bit more limited than with the
first disturbance today with the latter taking some of the moisture
with it as they are oft to do in the wake of passage of an upper
TROF axis.  Kept some low PoPs around for Saturday, maintaining the
timing of late morning and afternoon, but trimmed its expanse and
confined more to the eastern Ozarks and southwest IL.

Otherwise, lack of upper level support and surface fronts with
marginal levels of moisture for August will result in PoPs largely
being a wash and favor values below climo--climo being around 20%.

By mid-late next week, a storm over the upper Midwest appears to get
caught in the upper level "undertow" and stalls as the overall
regime becomes more zonal and split, and so not as progressive as
one might initially think.  A warm frontal boundary appears to
extend into the area late Wednesday with approach of a cold front on
Tbursday representing the best widespread chance for rain over the
next seven days--with PoPs to show for it--about 40%.

Max temps on Thursday were already within 2-3 degrees of normal and
should effectively be at normal values by the latter half of the
weekend and will even edge above normal for a period next week
before another return of some cooler air for late week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Still expect some areas of fog to develop between 09-13Z tonight
as they have the past few nights. Then an upper level disturbance
will move through the area on Friday which will bring a slight
chance of thunderstorms to the area. Think the best chance is
still over west central Illinois, so have continued the VCTS
between 17-22Z. Still too much uncertainty at the St. Louis metro
TAF sites, so will leave the VCTS mention out for now. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with a dry and VFR TAF with light
winds. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon, though there is enough uncertainty in the timing to
leave them out of the forecast for now.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 010820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

Primary forecast issue for today is PoPs.  Dirty surface ridge
remains in control of the weather today.  A shortwave will pass over
the area on northwest flow aloft.  Looks like a combination of broad
mid-level lift ahead of the shortwave and weak low level moisture
convergence east of the surface-850mb reflection of the shortwave
which is causing the precip currently over northwest Missouri.
Expect these features to continue to migrate southeastward through
the day, and short-range guidance has the shortwave sharpening up as
it approaches the base of the longwave trof east of the
Mississippi.  All short-range guidance has precip over the area to a
greater or lesser extent today, so have increasing PoPs through the
day from slight chance to chance category as diurnal heating becomes
a greater factor.  However, with the lack of a true surface trigger
have kept PoPs at 30% or less.  This may ultimately need to be
increased if afternoon thunderstorms can get organized into
clusters.  This is certainly possible if forecast SBCAPE 1000-2000
J/kg is realized.  Highs today will be highly dependent on cloud
cover and afternoon precip.  Used a combination of persistence and
MOS which yielded temperatures a degree or two cooler than yesterday
in the low to mid 80s.  Still relatively mild for August 1st.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

A longwave upper TROF will persist over eastern North America thru
Tuesday, although it will slowly de-amplify heading into early next
week.  Some upper level disturbances from this resultant NW flow can
be expected early, with one this evening--a leftover from today--and
another possibly rolling down for Saturday.  What does develop today
should carryover a bit into this evening and maintained a
mentionable slight chance PoP until about 9pm with the loss of
heating and upper level support moving downstream then should shut
things down.  Another upper level disturbance may slide down on
Saturday as well, although the signals for this are considerably
less clear and moisture should be a bit more limited than with the
first disturbance today with the latter taking some of the moisture
with it as they are oft to do in the wake of passage of an upper
TROF axis.  Kept some low PoPs around for Saturday, maintaining the
timing of late morning and afternoon, but trimmed its expanse and
confined more to the eastern Ozarks and southwest IL.

Otherwise, lack of upper level support and surface fronts with
marginal levels of moisture for August will result in PoPs largely
being a wash and favor values below climo--climo being around 20%.

By mid-late next week, a storm over the upper Midwest appears to get
caught in the upper level "undertow" and stalls as the overall
regime becomes more zonal and split, and so not as progressive as
one might initially think.  A warm frontal boundary appears to
extend into the area late Wednesday with approach of a cold front on
Tbursday representing the best widespread chance for rain over the
next seven days--with PoPs to show for it--about 40%.

Max temps on Thursday were already within 2-3 degrees of normal and
should effectively be at normal values by the latter half of the
weekend and will even edge above normal for a period next week
before another return of some cooler air for late week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Still expect some areas of fog to develop between 09-13Z tonight
as they have the past few nights. Then an upper level disturbance
will move through the area on Friday which will bring a slight
chance of thunderstorms to the area. Think the best chance is
still over west central Illinois, so have continued the VCTS
between 17-22Z. Still too much uncertainty at the St. Louis metro
TAF sites, so will leave the VCTS mention out for now. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with a dry and VFR TAF with light
winds. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon, though there is enough uncertainty in the timing to
leave them out of the forecast for now.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 010814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of fog have developed across portions of extreme southeastern
Kansas and southern Missouri early this morning. Visibilities will be
reduced to less than a mile at times and will vary greatly over
short distances. The fog will burn off shortly after sunrise this
morning.

The region remains in a northwest flow upper level pattern and
a weak upper level disturbance is currently pushing south into
northern Missouri early this morning. This disturbance will
continue to track southeast today and will spark a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon into
early this evening, mainly along and east of the Highway 65
corridor. Severe weather is not expected with this activity as
instability will not be overly strong. A few of the stronger
storms though will be capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon where better mid level moisture
and better theta-E differences will be present. This activity will
be hit and miss in nature, will not affect everyone, and will
dissipate fairly quickly this evening.

The area being in northwest flow and the disturbance reinforcing
the cooler air mass over the area will result in another day of
below normal temperatures as highs warm into the lower to middle
80s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Below normal conditions will continue into Saturday as highs top
out in the middle 80s and lows drop into the lower to middle 60s
Saturday night. Another weak disturbance will track through the
northwest flow aloft and through the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. At this time have left out any chances of showers and
thunderstorms with this feature as mid level moisture will be
limited and forcing will be limited and is not expected to be able
to over come the dry air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at |315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A warming trend will occur on Sunday into early next week as an upper
level ridge builds east into the Plains. Temperatures will return
to near normal early next week with highs in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s.

An upper level shortwave trough will push southeast across the northern
Plains during the middle of next week and will flatten the upper
level ridge. The trough could kick off some scattered thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A clear or clearing sky and left over
low level moisture over far southern MO is expected to lead to fog
development over the next few hours. Conditional climate for stations
close to the MO/AR border show the best chances at KBBG, but all
locations should have a decent chance. The fog should burn off
fairly quickly after 12z with vfr conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KSGF 010814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of fog have developed across portions of extreme southeastern
Kansas and southern Missouri early this morning. Visibilities will be
reduced to less than a mile at times and will vary greatly over
short distances. The fog will burn off shortly after sunrise this
morning.

The region remains in a northwest flow upper level pattern and
a weak upper level disturbance is currently pushing south into
northern Missouri early this morning. This disturbance will
continue to track southeast today and will spark a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon into
early this evening, mainly along and east of the Highway 65
corridor. Severe weather is not expected with this activity as
instability will not be overly strong. A few of the stronger
storms though will be capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon where better mid level moisture
and better theta-E differences will be present. This activity will
be hit and miss in nature, will not affect everyone, and will
dissipate fairly quickly this evening.

The area being in northwest flow and the disturbance reinforcing
the cooler air mass over the area will result in another day of
below normal temperatures as highs warm into the lower to middle
80s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Below normal conditions will continue into Saturday as highs top
out in the middle 80s and lows drop into the lower to middle 60s
Saturday night. Another weak disturbance will track through the
northwest flow aloft and through the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. At this time have left out any chances of showers and
thunderstorms with this feature as mid level moisture will be
limited and forcing will be limited and is not expected to be able
to over come the dry air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at |315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A warming trend will occur on Sunday into early next week as an upper
level ridge builds east into the Plains. Temperatures will return
to near normal early next week with highs in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s.

An upper level shortwave trough will push southeast across the northern
Plains during the middle of next week and will flatten the upper
level ridge. The trough could kick off some scattered thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A clear or clearing sky and left over
low level moisture over far southern MO is expected to lead to fog
development over the next few hours. Conditional climate for stations
close to the MO/AR border show the best chances at KBBG, but all
locations should have a decent chance. The fog should burn off
fairly quickly after 12z with vfr conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KSGF 010814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of fog have developed across portions of extreme southeastern
Kansas and southern Missouri early this morning. Visibilities will be
reduced to less than a mile at times and will vary greatly over
short distances. The fog will burn off shortly after sunrise this
morning.

The region remains in a northwest flow upper level pattern and
a weak upper level disturbance is currently pushing south into
northern Missouri early this morning. This disturbance will
continue to track southeast today and will spark a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon into
early this evening, mainly along and east of the Highway 65
corridor. Severe weather is not expected with this activity as
instability will not be overly strong. A few of the stronger
storms though will be capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon where better mid level moisture
and better theta-E differences will be present. This activity will
be hit and miss in nature, will not affect everyone, and will
dissipate fairly quickly this evening.

The area being in northwest flow and the disturbance reinforcing
the cooler air mass over the area will result in another day of
below normal temperatures as highs warm into the lower to middle
80s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Below normal conditions will continue into Saturday as highs top
out in the middle 80s and lows drop into the lower to middle 60s
Saturday night. Another weak disturbance will track through the
northwest flow aloft and through the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. At this time have left out any chances of showers and
thunderstorms with this feature as mid level moisture will be
limited and forcing will be limited and is not expected to be able
to over come the dry air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at |315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A warming trend will occur on Sunday into early next week as an upper
level ridge builds east into the Plains. Temperatures will return
to near normal early next week with highs in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s.

An upper level shortwave trough will push southeast across the northern
Plains during the middle of next week and will flatten the upper
level ridge. The trough could kick off some scattered thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A clear or clearing sky and left over
low level moisture over far southern MO is expected to lead to fog
development over the next few hours. Conditional climate for stations
close to the MO/AR border show the best chances at KBBG, but all
locations should have a decent chance. The fog should burn off
fairly quickly after 12z with vfr conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KSGF 010814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of fog have developed across portions of extreme southeastern
Kansas and southern Missouri early this morning. Visibilities will be
reduced to less than a mile at times and will vary greatly over
short distances. The fog will burn off shortly after sunrise this
morning.

The region remains in a northwest flow upper level pattern and
a weak upper level disturbance is currently pushing south into
northern Missouri early this morning. This disturbance will
continue to track southeast today and will spark a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon into
early this evening, mainly along and east of the Highway 65
corridor. Severe weather is not expected with this activity as
instability will not be overly strong. A few of the stronger
storms though will be capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon where better mid level moisture
and better theta-E differences will be present. This activity will
be hit and miss in nature, will not affect everyone, and will
dissipate fairly quickly this evening.

The area being in northwest flow and the disturbance reinforcing
the cooler air mass over the area will result in another day of
below normal temperatures as highs warm into the lower to middle
80s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Below normal conditions will continue into Saturday as highs top
out in the middle 80s and lows drop into the lower to middle 60s
Saturday night. Another weak disturbance will track through the
northwest flow aloft and through the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. At this time have left out any chances of showers and
thunderstorms with this feature as mid level moisture will be
limited and forcing will be limited and is not expected to be able
to over come the dry air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at |315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A warming trend will occur on Sunday into early next week as an upper
level ridge builds east into the Plains. Temperatures will return
to near normal early next week with highs in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s.

An upper level shortwave trough will push southeast across the northern
Plains during the middle of next week and will flatten the upper
level ridge. The trough could kick off some scattered thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A clear or clearing sky and left over
low level moisture over far southern MO is expected to lead to fog
development over the next few hours. Conditional climate for stations
close to the MO/AR border show the best chances at KBBG, but all
locations should have a decent chance. The fog should burn off
fairly quickly after 12z with vfr conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KEAX 010554
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1254 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak vorticity maxima embedded and obscured within northwest flow
will rotate southeast through eastern NE/IA and into MO during
the next 24 hours. Have adjusted slight chance PoPs to reflect ongoing
isolated convection moving into far northwest MO and future
expectations. This required extending PoPs through most of CWA on
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Only hitch looks
to be vicinity showers that may effect the terminals between now and
sunrise. Otherwise, a light and variable wind will prevail this
morning with a light --speeds less than 10 MPH-- southeast wind
developing late this morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 010554
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1254 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak vorticity maxima embedded and obscured within northwest flow
will rotate southeast through eastern NE/IA and into MO during
the next 24 hours. Have adjusted slight chance PoPs to reflect ongoing
isolated convection moving into far northwest MO and future
expectations. This required extending PoPs through most of CWA on
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Only hitch looks
to be vicinity showers that may effect the terminals between now and
sunrise. Otherwise, a light and variable wind will prevail this
morning with a light --speeds less than 10 MPH-- southeast wind
developing late this morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KSGF 010505
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

There were a few scattered showers across far southern Missouri
today, but most locations remained dry. No precipitation chances
will be needed through the rest of the evening and tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s, under
clearing skies and light winds.

The clearing skies and light winds could lend itself to some fog
after midnight. We have visibilities falling to around one mile at
times in the grids and the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Friday, showers are expected to remain east of the Ozarks,
giving way to a fabulous early August day. Highs in the 80s will
be common, under mostly sunny skies. A great way to start the
weekend for sure.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

The drying trend will continue through the weekend and into early
next week as warmer temperatures are expected. As a matter of
fact, readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s are expected on an
afternoon basis Monday through Wednesday. The warm and dry weather
will occur in response to upper level height rises and the onset
of southerly winds.

We finally may receive a widespread rainfall Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level wave forces a cold front across
southern Missouri. The models have been consistently showing a
signal for widespread rain during that period.

Have a great weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A clear or clearing sky and left over
low level moisture over far southern MO is expected to lead to fog
development over the next few hours. Conditional climate for stations
close to the MO/AR border show the best chances at KBBG, but all
locations should have a decent chance. The fog should burn off
fairly quickly after 12z with vfr conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 010505
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

There were a few scattered showers across far southern Missouri
today, but most locations remained dry. No precipitation chances
will be needed through the rest of the evening and tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s, under
clearing skies and light winds.

The clearing skies and light winds could lend itself to some fog
after midnight. We have visibilities falling to around one mile at
times in the grids and the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Friday, showers are expected to remain east of the Ozarks,
giving way to a fabulous early August day. Highs in the 80s will
be common, under mostly sunny skies. A great way to start the
weekend for sure.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

The drying trend will continue through the weekend and into early
next week as warmer temperatures are expected. As a matter of
fact, readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s are expected on an
afternoon basis Monday through Wednesday. The warm and dry weather
will occur in response to upper level height rises and the onset
of southerly winds.

We finally may receive a widespread rainfall Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level wave forces a cold front across
southern Missouri. The models have been consistently showing a
signal for widespread rain during that period.

Have a great weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A clear or clearing sky and left over
low level moisture over far southern MO is expected to lead to fog
development over the next few hours. Conditional climate for stations
close to the MO/AR border show the best chances at KBBG, but all
locations should have a decent chance. The fog should burn off
fairly quickly after 12z with vfr conditions expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 010410
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1110 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Another cool and quiet night is expected, as lows overnight drop to
the low to middle 60s across the area, still below normal for this
time of year. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave currently
over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, and a NW-SE
oriented band of precipitation over western Iowa. The shortwave will
continue to drop southeastward this evening and tonight, and
could be enough to trigger some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Feel the window for precipitation in this area is fairly small, as
the shortwave will remain transient and should be east of the
Mississippi River and out of our CWFA by around 06-07Z.  Otherwise,
diurnal cumulus is expected to dissipate across much of the area not
long after sunset, with winds remaining light and variable through
the night.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Slight changes may be in the offing regarding sensible weather
Friday/Saturday as longwave trough continues to dominate weather not
only over our region...but also the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Although shra/ts has been largely non-existent the past several days...
do believe there is a better chance of seeing isolated activity on
Friday/Saturday...due to better upper-level support and better instability.
Otherwise...persistence is the way to go wrt temps...seasonably cool for
early August.

Temperatures will moderate back toward normal to start off the new work
week with seasonably warm conditions expected for the middle of next week.
Pattern may become more favorable for rain as mid/upper levels become
quasi-zonal and moisture increases ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
However...PoPs only climb into the chance category due to substantial
differences in timing/track of closed low which develops from the northern
Plains.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Still expect some areas of fog to develop between 09-13Z tonight
as they have the past few nights. Then an upper level disturbance
will move through the area on Friday which will bring a slight
chance of thunderstorms to the area. Think the best chance is
still over west central Illinois, so have continued the VCTS
between 17-22Z. Still too much uncertainty at the St. Louis metro
TAF sites, so will leave the VCTS mention out for now. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with a dry and VFR TAF with light
winds. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon, though there is enough uncertainty in the timing to
leave them out of the forecast for now.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
Quincy          63  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20
Columbia        64  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Jefferson City  67  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Salem           61  84  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Farmington      62  81  60  82 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 010410
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1110 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Another cool and quiet night is expected, as lows overnight drop to
the low to middle 60s across the area, still below normal for this
time of year. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave currently
over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, and a NW-SE
oriented band of precipitation over western Iowa. The shortwave will
continue to drop southeastward this evening and tonight, and
could be enough to trigger some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Feel the window for precipitation in this area is fairly small, as
the shortwave will remain transient and should be east of the
Mississippi River and out of our CWFA by around 06-07Z.  Otherwise,
diurnal cumulus is expected to dissipate across much of the area not
long after sunset, with winds remaining light and variable through
the night.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Slight changes may be in the offing regarding sensible weather
Friday/Saturday as longwave trough continues to dominate weather not
only over our region...but also the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Although shra/ts has been largely non-existent the past several days...
do believe there is a better chance of seeing isolated activity on
Friday/Saturday...due to better upper-level support and better instability.
Otherwise...persistence is the way to go wrt temps...seasonably cool for
early August.

Temperatures will moderate back toward normal to start off the new work
week with seasonably warm conditions expected for the middle of next week.
Pattern may become more favorable for rain as mid/upper levels become
quasi-zonal and moisture increases ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
However...PoPs only climb into the chance category due to substantial
differences in timing/track of closed low which develops from the northern
Plains.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Still expect some areas of fog to develop between 09-13Z tonight
as they have the past few nights. Then an upper level disturbance
will move through the area on Friday which will bring a slight
chance of thunderstorms to the area. Think the best chance is
still over west central Illinois, so have continued the VCTS
between 17-22Z. Still too much uncertainty at the St. Louis metro
TAF sites, so will leave the VCTS mention out for now. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with a dry and VFR TAF with light
winds. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon, though there is enough uncertainty in the timing to
leave them out of the forecast for now.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
Quincy          63  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20
Columbia        64  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Jefferson City  67  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Salem           61  84  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Farmington      62  81  60  82 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 010238
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak vorticity maxima embedded and obscured within northwest flow
will rotate southeast through eastern NE/IA and into MO during
the next 24 hours. Have adjusted slight chance PoPs to reflect ongoing
isolated convection moving into far northwest MO and future
expectations. This required extending PoPs through most of CWA on
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions at all 3 terminals but with increasing mid level
clouds. Isolated convection associated with a shortwave dropping
slowly south-southeast through eastern NE could affect parts of
northern MO overnight. Low confidence any rain will reach the
terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 010238
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak vorticity maxima embedded and obscured within northwest flow
will rotate southeast through eastern NE/IA and into MO during
the next 24 hours. Have adjusted slight chance PoPs to reflect ongoing
isolated convection moving into far northwest MO and future
expectations. This required extending PoPs through most of CWA on
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions at all 3 terminals but with increasing mid level
clouds. Isolated convection associated with a shortwave dropping
slowly south-southeast through eastern NE could affect parts of
northern MO overnight. Low confidence any rain will reach the
terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 010238
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak vorticity maxima embedded and obscured within northwest flow
will rotate southeast through eastern NE/IA and into MO during
the next 24 hours. Have adjusted slight chance PoPs to reflect ongoing
isolated convection moving into far northwest MO and future
expectations. This required extending PoPs through most of CWA on
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions at all 3 terminals but with increasing mid level
clouds. Isolated convection associated with a shortwave dropping
slowly south-southeast through eastern NE could affect parts of
northern MO overnight. Low confidence any rain will reach the
terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 010238
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak vorticity maxima embedded and obscured within northwest flow
will rotate southeast through eastern NE/IA and into MO during
the next 24 hours. Have adjusted slight chance PoPs to reflect ongoing
isolated convection moving into far northwest MO and future
expectations. This required extending PoPs through most of CWA on
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions at all 3 terminals but with increasing mid level
clouds. Isolated convection associated with a shortwave dropping
slowly south-southeast through eastern NE could affect parts of
northern MO overnight. Low confidence any rain will reach the
terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KSGF 010000
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

There were a few scattered showers across far southern Missouri
today, but most locations remained dry. No precipitation chances
will be needed through the rest of the evening and tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s, under
clearing skies and light winds.

The clearing skies and light winds could lend itself to some fog
after midnight. We have visibilities falling to around one mile at
times in the grids and the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Friday, showers are expected to remain east of the Ozarks,
giving way to a fabulous early August day. Highs in the 80s will
be common, under mostly sunny skies. A great way to start the
weekend for sure.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

The drying trend will continue through the weekend and into early
next week as warmer temperatures are expected. As a matter of
fact, readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s are expected on an
afternoon basis Monday through Wednesday. The warm and dry weather
will occur in response to upper level height rises and the onset
of southerly winds.

We finally may receive a widespread rainfall Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level wave forces a cold front across
southern Missouri. The models have been consistently showing a
signal for widespread rain during that period.

Have a great weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Clouds persist over far southern
Missouri but should clear over the next few hours. Low level
moisture remains in place with dew points in the low-mid 60s. Low
level night time cooling with the clearing sky should allow
radiation fog to develop and have continued the mention ifr cat
fog in all the tafs. Clearing should be fairly quick after sunrise
with vfr conditions expected by 14z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KLSX 312352
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Another cool and quiet night is expected, as lows overnight drop to
the low to middle 60s across the area, still below normal for this
time of year. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave currently
over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, and a NW-SE
oriented band of precipitation over western Iowa. The shortwave will
continue to drop southeastward this evening and tonight, and
could be enough to trigger some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Feel the window for precipitation in this area is fairly small, as
the shortwave will remain transient and should be east of the
Mississippi River and out of our CWFA by around 06-07Z.  Otherwise,
diurnal cumulus is expected to dissipate across much of the area not
long after sunset, with winds remaining light and variable through
the night.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Slight changes may be in the offing regarding sensible weather
Friday/Saturday as longwave trough continues to dominate weather not
only over our region...but also the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Although shra/ts has been largely non-existent the past several days...
do believe there is a better chance of seeing isolated activity on
Friday/Saturday...due to better upper-level support and better instability.
Otherwise...persistence is the way to go wrt temps...seasonably cool for
early August.

Temperatures will moderate back toward normal to start off the new work
week with seasonably warm conditions expected for the middle of next week.
Pattern may become more favorable for rain as mid/upper levels become
quasi-zonal and moisture increases ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
However...PoPs only climb into the chance category due to substantial
differences in timing/track of closed low which develops from the northern
Plains.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Showers over Iowa may affect KUIN later this evening, though they
have shown an overall weakening trend so have not included them
in the TAF site at this time. Some areas of fog are expected to
develop again tonight... particularly near the rivers like they
have in recent nights between 09-13Z. A weak upper level
disturbance will move across the area tomorrow afternoon which
should be enough to generate isolated thunderstorms. The greatest
coverage will be across west central Illinois, so went added VCTS
at KUIN starting at 17Z. The St. Louis metro TAF sites may also
see this chance, though there is enough uncertainty in timing to
keep those TAF sites dry for now.

Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with a dry and VFR TAF with light
winds. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon, though there is enough uncertainty in timing to leave
them out of the forecast for now.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
Quincy          63  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20
Columbia        63  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Jefferson City  62  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Farmington      60  81  60  82 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 312352
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Another cool and quiet night is expected, as lows overnight drop to
the low to middle 60s across the area, still below normal for this
time of year. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave currently
over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, and a NW-SE
oriented band of precipitation over western Iowa. The shortwave will
continue to drop southeastward this evening and tonight, and
could be enough to trigger some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Feel the window for precipitation in this area is fairly small, as
the shortwave will remain transient and should be east of the
Mississippi River and out of our CWFA by around 06-07Z.  Otherwise,
diurnal cumulus is expected to dissipate across much of the area not
long after sunset, with winds remaining light and variable through
the night.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Slight changes may be in the offing regarding sensible weather
Friday/Saturday as longwave trough continues to dominate weather not
only over our region...but also the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Although shra/ts has been largely non-existent the past several days...
do believe there is a better chance of seeing isolated activity on
Friday/Saturday...due to better upper-level support and better instability.
Otherwise...persistence is the way to go wrt temps...seasonably cool for
early August.

Temperatures will moderate back toward normal to start off the new work
week with seasonably warm conditions expected for the middle of next week.
Pattern may become more favorable for rain as mid/upper levels become
quasi-zonal and moisture increases ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
However...PoPs only climb into the chance category due to substantial
differences in timing/track of closed low which develops from the northern
Plains.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Showers over Iowa may affect KUIN later this evening, though they
have shown an overall weakening trend so have not included them
in the TAF site at this time. Some areas of fog are expected to
develop again tonight... particularly near the rivers like they
have in recent nights between 09-13Z. A weak upper level
disturbance will move across the area tomorrow afternoon which
should be enough to generate isolated thunderstorms. The greatest
coverage will be across west central Illinois, so went added VCTS
at KUIN starting at 17Z. The St. Louis metro TAF sites may also
see this chance, though there is enough uncertainty in timing to
keep those TAF sites dry for now.

Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with a dry and VFR TAF with light
winds. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon, though there is enough uncertainty in timing to leave
them out of the forecast for now.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
Quincy          63  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20
Columbia        63  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Jefferson City  62  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Farmington      60  81  60  82 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 312352
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Another cool and quiet night is expected, as lows overnight drop to
the low to middle 60s across the area, still below normal for this
time of year. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave currently
over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, and a NW-SE
oriented band of precipitation over western Iowa. The shortwave will
continue to drop southeastward this evening and tonight, and
could be enough to trigger some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Feel the window for precipitation in this area is fairly small, as
the shortwave will remain transient and should be east of the
Mississippi River and out of our CWFA by around 06-07Z.  Otherwise,
diurnal cumulus is expected to dissipate across much of the area not
long after sunset, with winds remaining light and variable through
the night.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Slight changes may be in the offing regarding sensible weather
Friday/Saturday as longwave trough continues to dominate weather not
only over our region...but also the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Although shra/ts has been largely non-existent the past several days...
do believe there is a better chance of seeing isolated activity on
Friday/Saturday...due to better upper-level support and better instability.
Otherwise...persistence is the way to go wrt temps...seasonably cool for
early August.

Temperatures will moderate back toward normal to start off the new work
week with seasonably warm conditions expected for the middle of next week.
Pattern may become more favorable for rain as mid/upper levels become
quasi-zonal and moisture increases ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
However...PoPs only climb into the chance category due to substantial
differences in timing/track of closed low which develops from the northern
Plains.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Showers over Iowa may affect KUIN later this evening, though they
have shown an overall weakening trend so have not included them
in the TAF site at this time. Some areas of fog are expected to
develop again tonight... particularly near the rivers like they
have in recent nights between 09-13Z. A weak upper level
disturbance will move across the area tomorrow afternoon which
should be enough to generate isolated thunderstorms. The greatest
coverage will be across west central Illinois, so went added VCTS
at KUIN starting at 17Z. The St. Louis metro TAF sites may also
see this chance, though there is enough uncertainty in timing to
keep those TAF sites dry for now.

Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with a dry and VFR TAF with light
winds. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon, though there is enough uncertainty in timing to leave
them out of the forecast for now.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
Quincy          63  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20
Columbia        63  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Jefferson City  62  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Farmington      60  81  60  82 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 312352
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Another cool and quiet night is expected, as lows overnight drop to
the low to middle 60s across the area, still below normal for this
time of year. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave currently
over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, and a NW-SE
oriented band of precipitation over western Iowa. The shortwave will
continue to drop southeastward this evening and tonight, and
could be enough to trigger some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Feel the window for precipitation in this area is fairly small, as
the shortwave will remain transient and should be east of the
Mississippi River and out of our CWFA by around 06-07Z.  Otherwise,
diurnal cumulus is expected to dissipate across much of the area not
long after sunset, with winds remaining light and variable through
the night.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Slight changes may be in the offing regarding sensible weather
Friday/Saturday as longwave trough continues to dominate weather not
only over our region...but also the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Although shra/ts has been largely non-existent the past several days...
do believe there is a better chance of seeing isolated activity on
Friday/Saturday...due to better upper-level support and better instability.
Otherwise...persistence is the way to go wrt temps...seasonably cool for
early August.

Temperatures will moderate back toward normal to start off the new work
week with seasonably warm conditions expected for the middle of next week.
Pattern may become more favorable for rain as mid/upper levels become
quasi-zonal and moisture increases ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
However...PoPs only climb into the chance category due to substantial
differences in timing/track of closed low which develops from the northern
Plains.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Showers over Iowa may affect KUIN later this evening, though they
have shown an overall weakening trend so have not included them
in the TAF site at this time. Some areas of fog are expected to
develop again tonight... particularly near the rivers like they
have in recent nights between 09-13Z. A weak upper level
disturbance will move across the area tomorrow afternoon which
should be enough to generate isolated thunderstorms. The greatest
coverage will be across west central Illinois, so went added VCTS
at KUIN starting at 17Z. The St. Louis metro TAF sites may also
see this chance, though there is enough uncertainty in timing to
keep those TAF sites dry for now.

Specifics for KSTL: Have gone with a dry and VFR TAF with light
winds. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon, though there is enough uncertainty in timing to leave
them out of the forecast for now.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
Quincy          63  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20
Columbia        63  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Jefferson City  62  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Farmington      60  81  60  82 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 312349
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions at all 3 terminals but with increasing mid level
clouds. Isolated convection associated with a shortwave dropping
slowly south-southeast through eastern NE could affect parts of
northern MO overnight. Low confidence any rain will reach the
terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 312349
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions at all 3 terminals but with increasing mid level
clouds. Isolated convection associated with a shortwave dropping
slowly south-southeast through eastern NE could affect parts of
northern MO overnight. Low confidence any rain will reach the
terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KLSX 312027
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Another cool and quiet night is expected, as lows overnight drop to
the low to middle 60s across the area, still below normal for this
time of year. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave currently
over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, and a NW-SE
oriented band of precipitation over western Iowa. The shortwave will
continue to drop southeastward this evening and tonight, and
could be enough to trigger some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Feel the window for precipitation in this area is fairly small, as
the shortwave will remain transient and should be east of the
Mississippi River and out of our CWFA by around 06-07Z.  Otherwise,
diurnal cumulus is expected to dissipate across much of the area not
long after sunset, with winds remaining light and variable through
the night.

JP



.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Slight changes may be in the offing regarding sensible weather
Friday/Saturday as longwave trough continues to dominate weather not
only over our region...but also the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Although shra/ts has been largely non-existent the past several days...
do believe there is a better chance of seeing isolated activity on
Friday/Saturday...due to better upper-level support and better instability.
Otherwise...persistence is the way to go wrt temps...seasonably cool for
early August.

Temperatures will moderate back toward normal to start off the new work
week with seasonably warm conditions expected for the middle of next week.
Pattern may become more favorable for rain as mid/upper levels become
quasi-zonal and moisture increases ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
However...PoPs only climb into the chance category due to substantial
differences in timing/track of closed low which develops from the northern
Plains.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
Quincy          63  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20
Columbia        63  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Jefferson City  62  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Farmington      60  81  60  82 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 312027
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Another cool and quiet night is expected, as lows overnight drop to
the low to middle 60s across the area, still below normal for this
time of year. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave currently
over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, and a NW-SE
oriented band of precipitation over western Iowa. The shortwave will
continue to drop southeastward this evening and tonight, and
could be enough to trigger some showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm over far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Feel the window for precipitation in this area is fairly small, as
the shortwave will remain transient and should be east of the
Mississippi River and out of our CWFA by around 06-07Z.  Otherwise,
diurnal cumulus is expected to dissipate across much of the area not
long after sunset, with winds remaining light and variable through
the night.

JP



.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Slight changes may be in the offing regarding sensible weather
Friday/Saturday as longwave trough continues to dominate weather not
only over our region...but also the eastern two-thirds of the country.
Although shra/ts has been largely non-existent the past several days...
do believe there is a better chance of seeing isolated activity on
Friday/Saturday...due to better upper-level support and better instability.
Otherwise...persistence is the way to go wrt temps...seasonably cool for
early August.

Temperatures will moderate back toward normal to start off the new work
week with seasonably warm conditions expected for the middle of next week.
Pattern may become more favorable for rain as mid/upper levels become
quasi-zonal and moisture increases ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
However...PoPs only climb into the chance category due to substantial
differences in timing/track of closed low which develops from the northern
Plains.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  85  65  86 /  10  20  10  20
Quincy          63  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20
Columbia        63  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Jefferson City  62  85  62  84 /  10  20   5  10
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10  20  10  20
Farmington      60  81  60  82 /  10  20   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 312010
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

There were a few scattered showers across far southern Missouri
today, but most locations remained dry. No precipitation chances
will be needed through the rest of the evening and tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s, under
clearing skies and light winds.

The clearing skies and light winds could lend itself to some fog
after midnight. We have visibilities falling to around one mile at
times in the grids and the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Friday, showers are expected to remain east of the Ozarks,
giving way to a fabulous early August day. Highs in the 80s will
be common, under mostly sunny skies. A great way to start the
weekend for sure.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

The drying trend will continue through the weekend and into early
next week as warmer temperatures are expected. As a matter of
fact, readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s are expected on an
afternoon basis Monday through Wednesday. The warm and dry weather
will occur in response to upper level height rises and the onset
of southerly winds.

We finally may receive a widespread rainfall Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level wave forces a cold front across
southern Missouri. The models have been consistently showing a
signal for widespread rain during that period.

Have a great weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue across southern
Missouri this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system
passes south of the region. Ceilings in the lower end VFR and
higher end MVFR categories will continue. Spotty IFR will also
continue around Branson early this afternoon. Clouds will then
decrease tonight which will lead to fog development. IFR and LIFR
fog appears increasingly likely, especially around Branson. The
fog will then burn off Friday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 312010
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

There were a few scattered showers across far southern Missouri
today, but most locations remained dry. No precipitation chances
will be needed through the rest of the evening and tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s, under
clearing skies and light winds.

The clearing skies and light winds could lend itself to some fog
after midnight. We have visibilities falling to around one mile at
times in the grids and the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Friday, showers are expected to remain east of the Ozarks,
giving way to a fabulous early August day. Highs in the 80s will
be common, under mostly sunny skies. A great way to start the
weekend for sure.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

The drying trend will continue through the weekend and into early
next week as warmer temperatures are expected. As a matter of
fact, readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s are expected on an
afternoon basis Monday through Wednesday. The warm and dry weather
will occur in response to upper level height rises and the onset
of southerly winds.

We finally may receive a widespread rainfall Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level wave forces a cold front across
southern Missouri. The models have been consistently showing a
signal for widespread rain during that period.

Have a great weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue across southern
Missouri this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system
passes south of the region. Ceilings in the lower end VFR and
higher end MVFR categories will continue. Spotty IFR will also
continue around Branson early this afternoon. Clouds will then
decrease tonight which will lead to fog development. IFR and LIFR
fog appears increasingly likely, especially around Branson. The
fog will then burn off Friday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 311929
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
229 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Diurnal CU have
developed and should continue to near sunset before clearing away.
The sfc winds should remain light and variable through the day and
evening with light southerly winds developing tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311929
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
229 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Diurnal CU have
developed and should continue to near sunset before clearing away.
The sfc winds should remain light and variable through the day and
evening with light southerly winds developing tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KSGF 311756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The rain that impacted far southern Missouri Wednesday had shifted
to the south with only lingering sprinkles early this morning.
Partial clearing from the north and moist conditions where rain
had fallen was resulting in patchy fog.

The shortwave trough responsible for the recent rainfall will
track southeast across Arkansas today. Scattered showers and
sprinkles will linger today and mainly this morning across far
southern Missouri within an axis of weak mid level deformation
north of the shortwave.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today especially under
the clouds closer to the Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The northwesterly flow aloft will continue the next few days
before the upper ridge out west expands eastward early next week.

A shortwave trough will drop southward across the Great Lakes
region Friday and Saturday. This feature may support the
development of isolated showers across the eastern Ozarks Friday
and Saturday but expect most locations to remain dry.

Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday then a
warming trend will develop heading into early next week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal mid summer levels Monday and Tuesday.

The next upper level trough and associated front will approach the
region later next week bringing our next substantial chance of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue across southern
Missouri this afternoon as an upper level low pressure system
passes south of the region. Ceilings in the lower end VFR and
higher end MVFR categories will continue. Spotty IFR will also
continue around Branson early this afternoon. Clouds will then
decrease tonight which will lead to fog development. IFR and LIFR
fog appears increasingly likely, especially around Branson. The
fog will then burn off Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311744
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311744
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311744
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311744
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions and generally light and variable winds will prevail
through the period for all TAF sites with just a couple
exceptions. First, recent guidance indicates the potential for
light showers overnight tonight over southern IA and northern MO,
but given uncertainty whether it will occur at the terminal, have
not mentioned in the TAF. Second exception is radiation fog
development during the late overnight and early morning, which
would be similar to what occurred last night. Have included a few
hours of fog for KSUS, KCPS, and KUIN, which could reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR conditions. However, any fog that
develops should be quick to burn off after sunrise Friday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered diurnal
cumulus today will return Friday, becoming broken by the early
afternoon. There is a possibility for some showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but given uncertainties regarding
timing and coverage, have not included mention in the TAF at this
time. Light and variable winds today and tonight will become
easterly around 05kt on Friday, and while some radiation fog is
expected around the area late tonight and early Friday morning,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KSTL do not indicate impacts at
the terminal.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 311730
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Diurnal CU have
developed and should continue to near sunset before clearing away.
The sfc winds should remain light and variable through the day and
evening with light southerly winds developing tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Pietrycha






000
FXUS63 KEAX 311730
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CIGS and VIS are expected through the period. Diurnal CU have
developed and should continue to near sunset before clearing away.
The sfc winds should remain light and variable through the day and
evening with light southerly winds developing tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Pietrycha







000
FXUS63 KLSX 311134
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Ongoing radiational fog should dissipate by 13-14z with VFR flight
conditions expected to dominate through the remainder of the day
and evening. Clouds will consist primarily of diurnal cu and some
high clouds. Given the persistence of light winds, during the
overnight hours we should see radiational fog once again develop.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected to dominate through the forecast
period. The wind will be light and clouds will consist primarily
of diurnal cu and some high clouds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 311134
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Ongoing radiational fog should dissipate by 13-14z with VFR flight
conditions expected to dominate through the remainder of the day
and evening. Clouds will consist primarily of diurnal cu and some
high clouds. Given the persistence of light winds, during the
overnight hours we should see radiational fog once again develop.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected to dominate through the forecast
period. The wind will be light and clouds will consist primarily
of diurnal cu and some high clouds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311106
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
606 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Outside of some very patchy fog early this morning, VFR conditions
are expected through the TAF period. Scattered cumulus with bases
around 5-6 kft is expected to develop by late morning, and winds will
gradually veer to the southeast at speeds around 6-7 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 311106
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
606 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Outside of some very patchy fog early this morning, VFR conditions
are expected through the TAF period. Scattered cumulus with bases
around 5-6 kft is expected to develop by late morning, and winds will
gradually veer to the southeast at speeds around 6-7 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 311055
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The rain that impacted far southern Missouri Wednesday had shifted
to the south with only lingering sprinkles early this morning.
Partial clearing from the north and moist conditions where rain
had fallen was resulting in patchy fog.

The shortwave trough responsible for the recent rainfall will
track southeast across Arkansas today. Scattered showers and
sprinkles will linger today and mainly this morning across far
southern Missouri within an axis of weak mid level deformation
north of the shortwave.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today especially under
the clouds closer to the Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The northwesterly flow aloft will continue the next few days
before the upper ridge out west expands eastward early next week.

A shortwave trough will drop southward across the Great Lakes
region Friday and Saturday. This feature may support the
development of isolated showers across the eastern Ozarks Friday
and Saturday but expect most locations to remain dry.

Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday then a
warming trend will develop heading into early next week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal mid summer levels Monday and Tuesday.

The next upper level trough and associated front will approach the
region later next week bringing our next substantial chance of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck and
fog have developed across the area overnight. The fog will remain
at all the TAF sites early this morning with the low level cloud
deck remaining possible over the KSGF and KBBG TAFS. The clouds
will lift and increase by the mid morning hours with the fog also
burning off early this morning.

Scattered light showers will also be possible across southern
Missouri this morning and will mainly impact the KBBG TAF SITE.
VFR conditions will occur this afternoon and evening, with light
winds occurring throughout the TAF period. Fog may once again develop
overnight into early Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The rain that impacted far southern Missouri Wednesday had shifted
to the south with only lingering sprinkles early this morning.
Partial clearing from the north and moist conditions where rain
had fallen was resulting in patchy fog.

The shortwave trough responsible for the recent rainfall will
track southeast across Arkansas today. Scattered showers and
sprinkles will linger today and mainly this morning across far
southern Missouri within an axis of weak mid level deformation
north of the shortwave.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today especially under
the clouds closer to the Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The northwesterly flow aloft will continue the next few days
before the upper ridge out west expands eastward early next week.

A shortwave trough will drop southward across the Great Lakes
region Friday and Saturday. This feature may support the
development of isolated showers across the eastern Ozarks Friday
and Saturday but expect most locations to remain dry.

Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday then a
warming trend will develop heading into early next week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal mid summer levels Monday and Tuesday.

The next upper level trough and associated front will approach the
region later next week bringing our next substantial chance of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Moist low levels from rain earlier in the
day along with boundary layer cooling should allow areas of fog to
develop. Seeing some ifr fog developing in some spots where higher
clouds have cleared. Have ifr cat visibility in all tafs with the
best chances likely at KJLN and KBBG. Some light showers may
develop during the 12z-18z time frame over far southern Missouri
with another upper level disturbance.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The rain that impacted far southern Missouri Wednesday had shifted
to the south with only lingering sprinkles early this morning.
Partial clearing from the north and moist conditions where rain
had fallen was resulting in patchy fog.

The shortwave trough responsible for the recent rainfall will
track southeast across Arkansas today. Scattered showers and
sprinkles will linger today and mainly this morning across far
southern Missouri within an axis of weak mid level deformation
north of the shortwave.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today especially under
the clouds closer to the Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The northwesterly flow aloft will continue the next few days
before the upper ridge out west expands eastward early next week.

A shortwave trough will drop southward across the Great Lakes
region Friday and Saturday. This feature may support the
development of isolated showers across the eastern Ozarks Friday
and Saturday but expect most locations to remain dry.

Temperatures will remain below normal through Saturday then a
warming trend will develop heading into early next week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal mid summer levels Monday and Tuesday.

The next upper level trough and associated front will approach the
region later next week bringing our next substantial chance of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Moist low levels from rain earlier in the
day along with boundary layer cooling should allow areas of fog to
develop. Seeing some ifr fog developing in some spots where higher
clouds have cleared. Have ifr cat visibility in all tafs with the
best chances likely at KJLN and KBBG. Some light showers may
develop during the 12z-18z time frame over far southern Missouri
with another upper level disturbance.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310818
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
318 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Mainly clear skies tonight will be replaced by diurnal cumulus with
bases around 5-6 kft late Thursday morning, and winds will gradually
veer from northeast to southeast at speeds around 5 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310818
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
318 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Mainly clear skies tonight will be replaced by diurnal cumulus with
bases around 5-6 kft late Thursday morning, and winds will gradually
veer from northeast to southeast at speeds around 5 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310809
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310809
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 60s. Such temperatures are 3-10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Light rain is possible across the
extreme southern CWA today on the northern fringes of an area of
precipitation which is being generated by a shortwave moving from
OK into AR. Isolated to scattered precip is also possible late
this afternoon and early tonight across the northern CWA ahead of
an approaching shortwave which is diving south-southeastward from
ND/MN per 06z water vapor imagery.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Diurnal instability combined with lift ahead of occasional weak
shortwaves might produce iso-sct SH/TS over the next couple of
days, especially during the afternoon hours. Slightly cooler than
average temperatures will continue until the northwest flow
pattern aloft begins to change over the weekend, eventually
becoming quasizonal. After an upper ridge de-amplifies and shifts
into the plains early next week while surface winds turn
southerly, seasonable levels of heat/humidity should return to the
region. The next opportunity for widespread rainfall appears to be
associated with a potential synoptic scale system during the
middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 310534
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Not a lot going on for this fcst issuance as the incredibly
pleasant temperatures continue. Other than a few light showers
clipping southern Linn County this afternoon, the CWA should remain
dry through much of the fcst period as northwest flow persists
associated with a deep low pressure over the lower Hudson Bay region.
The low will very slowly lift north allowing for rising heights and
warmer temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early next
week.

As the current ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS builds
east we should see temps return back to close to normal by Monday
with increasing humidity. The warm temps will not last too long as a
trough amplifies across the Northern Plains while the ridge
retrogrades west, allowing for a cold front to move through the CWA.
At this time the GFS and EC depict increasing precip chances
beginning very late TUE but more so WED afternoon and evening
associated with the cold frontal passage. Beyond the fcst period the
trough should continue to impact the CWA with several days of below
normal temperatures to finish out next week. We shall see...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Mainly clear skies tonight will be replaced by diurnal cumulus with
bases around 5-6 kft late Thursday morning, and winds will gradually
veer from northeast to southeast at speeds around 5 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 310534
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Not a lot going on for this fcst issuance as the incredibly
pleasant temperatures continue. Other than a few light showers
clipping southern Linn County this afternoon, the CWA should remain
dry through much of the fcst period as northwest flow persists
associated with a deep low pressure over the lower Hudson Bay region.
The low will very slowly lift north allowing for rising heights and
warmer temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early next
week.

As the current ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS builds
east we should see temps return back to close to normal by Monday
with increasing humidity. The warm temps will not last too long as a
trough amplifies across the Northern Plains while the ridge
retrogrades west, allowing for a cold front to move through the CWA.
At this time the GFS and EC depict increasing precip chances
beginning very late TUE but more so WED afternoon and evening
associated with the cold frontal passage. Beyond the fcst period the
trough should continue to impact the CWA with several days of below
normal temperatures to finish out next week. We shall see...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Mainly clear skies tonight will be replaced by diurnal cumulus with
bases around 5-6 kft late Thursday morning, and winds will gradually
veer from northeast to southeast at speeds around 5 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 310515
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonight`s
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Moist low levels from rain earlier in the
day along with boundary layer cooling should allow areas of fog to
develop. Seeing some ifr fog developing in some spots where higher
clouds have cleared. Have ifr cat visibility in all tafs with the
best chances likely at KJLN and KBBG. Some light showers may
develop during the 12z-18z time frame over far southern Missouri
with another upper level disturbance.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 310515
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Light to moderate rain has spread across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri today. Essentially from Fort Scott Kansas to
Bull Shoals Lake...and to the southwest has experienced this
precipitation today.

Locations across central Stone County and over into southern
Lawrence County are now approaching two inches of measured rain.
These areas have been placed within an elevated risk for flooding
through tonight, as additional rainfall takes place across
southwest Missouri.

Speaking of tonight, we noticed that the MCV over north central
Oklahoma was taking more of a northerly track this afternoon,
almost moving due east with time. We have increased precipitation
chances significantly across southern Missouri through tonight`s
period, with the possibility of heavier rain affecting southern
Missouri. As a matter of fact, WPC has now included far SW MO
within a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 1
Outlook.

There should be a sharp cutoff in rainfall on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. Locations along Highway 54 and to the
north will likely remain dry through this whole episode.

Rain will persist across southern Missouri Thursday, before coming
to an end Thursday afternoon. Look for highs to only reach the 70s
again tomorrow over southern MO, with highs in the lower 80s in
central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Starting Thursday night, an extended period of dry weather is
expected for the nation`s midsection. A gradual warm up is also in
line, with highs in the 80s on an afternoon basis through Sunday.
We could get into the 90 degree weather early next week,
particularly Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows through early next
week will fall into the 60s.

The next significant chance for rain will occur Wednesday or
Thursday of next week. Models have been signaling an upper
shortwave and associated frontal system to swing across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Moist low levels from rain earlier in the
day along with boundary layer cooling should allow areas of fog to
develop. Seeing some ifr fog developing in some spots where higher
clouds have cleared. Have ifr cat visibility in all tafs with the
best chances likely at KJLN and KBBG. Some light showers may
develop during the 12z-18z time frame over far southern Missouri
with another upper level disturbance.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  86  66  85 /   5  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /   5  10  10  20
Columbia        61  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Jefferson City  62  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Salem           59  83  62  83 /   5  10   5  20
Farmington      61  78  59  81 /   5  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 310341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  86  66  85 /   5  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /   5  10  10  20
Columbia        61  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Jefferson City  62  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Salem           59  83  62  83 /   5  10   5  20
Farmington      61  78  59  81 /   5  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  86  66  85 /   5  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /   5  10  10  20
Columbia        61  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Jefferson City  62  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Salem           59  83  62  83 /   5  10   5  20
Farmington      61  78  59  81 /   5  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 310341
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widespread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the
TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions with light winds are
expected over the next 30 hours.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  86  66  85 /   5  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /   5  10  10  20
Columbia        61  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Jefferson City  62  84  61  83 /   5  10   5  20
Salem           59  83  62  83 /   5  10   5  20
Farmington      61  78  59  81 /   5  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







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