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000
FXUS63 KLSX 270529
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Low level clouds will continue to advect southeastward through IL
and portions of eastern MO for the rest of tonight. Although the
coldest air was over the eastern/northeastern portion of our
forecast area, the low level cloud cover was keeping surface
temperatures from falling much. The temperatures across portions of
eastern MO where these low level clouds have moved in have
actually risen slightly during the past few hours. It appears that
any drizzle/freezing drizzle or flurries, associated with weak
lift due to weak northwest flow shortwaves dropping southeastward
through WI and IL, will remain east of our forecast area for the
rest of tonight.

GKS
&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA during the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Surface low continues to make slow progress southeast away from
forecast area. Winds behind system are from the northwest to
north. As for clouds, back edge remains along and east of
Mississippi River. Currently VFR cigs, but models and some sites
upstream are MVFR. For now have MVFR cigs moving into KUIN by 07z
and into metro area by 10z. Then as surface ridge builds in clouds
to scatter out from north to south. KUIN to scatter out by 15z
Tuesday while metro area will be around 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, KCOU to remain clear with just a few sc through the
forecast period. By late afternoon/early evening, winds to veer
to the east.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low continues to make slow progress southeast away from
forecast area. Winds behind system are from the northwest to
north. As for clouds, back edge remains along and east of
Mississippi River. Currently VFR cigs, but models and some sites
upstream are MVFR. For now have MVFR cigs moving into metro area
by 10z. Then as surface ridge builds in clouds to scatter out around
01z Wednesday and winds veer to the east.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





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000
FXUS63 KEAX 270525
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1125 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Tonight: Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to the northeast overnight
with speeds reducing to around 5 kts. There is some potential for
patchy fog over northeastern to northern Missouri tonight, with NAM
and SREF probabilities relatively high. Uncertainty lies with modest
wind speeds remaining and some drier air gradually moving into the
area. Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows
falling into the lower 30s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: With the influences of the departing surface high
pressure, Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler with easterly
boundary layer winds and shallower mixing. Afternoon readings are
expected to range from the middle 40s northeast to the middle 50s
southwest. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins
to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s. Dry
weather is expected through the warm period.

Extended: An upper disturbance will drop southeast from the Missouri
Valley to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with an accompanying cold
front to push through the forecast area, bringing cooler
temperatures into the area. Any appreciable weather should remain
just to the northeast of the area on Thursday with the passage of
the upper low. Models have trended to a more active pattern this
weekend with the approach of a northern stream positively-tilted
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest profiles supportive of
snow, or at least a rain-snow mix, through precipitation amounts
still vary greatly. Colder air is expected to follow behind the next
cold front and the subsequent exit of precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Will see a gradual
turning of the winds through noon on Tuesday from the northwest to
the east, and ultimately to the southeast. Fog development is
possible at KSTJ overnight, though not anticipating anything below
MVFR visibility.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh






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000
FXUS63 KSGF 270523
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1123 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a sfc
ridge expected to move through the region during this taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 270523
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1123 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a sfc
ridge expected to move through the region during this taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270351
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
951 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Low level clouds will continue to advect southeastward through IL
and portions of eastern MO for the rest of tonight. Although the
coldest air was over the eastern/northeastern portion of our
forecast area, the low level cloud cover was keeping surface
temperatures from falling much. The temperatures across portions of
eastern MO where these low level clouds have moved in have
actually risen slightly during the past few hours. It appears that
any drizzle/freezing drizzle or flurries, associated with weak
lift due to weak northwest flow shortwaves dropping southeastward
through WI and IL, will remain east of our forecast area for the
rest of tonight.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover, tafs
along Mississippi River to see mvfr cigs move back in around 02z
Tuesday in KUIN and around 05z Tuesday in metro area. KCOU to
remain mostly clear through forecast period. KUIN to scatter by
mid morning on Tuesday while metro are will not clear out til
towards 00z Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridge to build in
and winds will veer to the east towards end of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover,
metro area will see mvfr cigs move back in around 05z Tuesday.
Cigs will not clear out til towards 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridge to build in and winds will veer to the
east towards end of forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270351
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
951 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Low level clouds will continue to advect southeastward through IL
and portions of eastern MO for the rest of tonight. Although the
coldest air was over the eastern/northeastern portion of our
forecast area, the low level cloud cover was keeping surface
temperatures from falling much. The temperatures across portions of
eastern MO where these low level clouds have moved in have
actually risen slightly during the past few hours. It appears that
any drizzle/freezing drizzle or flurries, associated with weak
lift due to weak northwest flow shortwaves dropping southeastward
through WI and IL, will remain east of our forecast area for the
rest of tonight.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover, tafs
along Mississippi River to see mvfr cigs move back in around 02z
Tuesday in KUIN and around 05z Tuesday in metro area. KCOU to
remain mostly clear through forecast period. KUIN to scatter by
mid morning on Tuesday while metro are will not clear out til
towards 00z Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridge to build in
and winds will veer to the east towards end of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover,
metro area will see mvfr cigs move back in around 05z Tuesday.
Cigs will not clear out til towards 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridge to build in and winds will veer to the
east towards end of forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270351
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
951 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Low level clouds will continue to advect southeastward through IL
and portions of eastern MO for the rest of tonight. Although the
coldest air was over the eastern/northeastern portion of our
forecast area, the low level cloud cover was keeping surface
temperatures from falling much. The temperatures across portions of
eastern MO where these low level clouds have moved in have
actually risen slightly during the past few hours. It appears that
any drizzle/freezing drizzle or flurries, associated with weak
lift due to weak northwest flow shortwaves dropping southeastward
through WI and IL, will remain east of our forecast area for the
rest of tonight.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover, tafs
along Mississippi River to see mvfr cigs move back in around 02z
Tuesday in KUIN and around 05z Tuesday in metro area. KCOU to
remain mostly clear through forecast period. KUIN to scatter by
mid morning on Tuesday while metro are will not clear out til
towards 00z Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridge to build in
and winds will veer to the east towards end of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover,
metro area will see mvfr cigs move back in around 05z Tuesday.
Cigs will not clear out til towards 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridge to build in and winds will veer to the
east towards end of forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270351
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
951 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Low level clouds will continue to advect southeastward through IL
and portions of eastern MO for the rest of tonight. Although the
coldest air was over the eastern/northeastern portion of our
forecast area, the low level cloud cover was keeping surface
temperatures from falling much. The temperatures across portions of
eastern MO where these low level clouds have moved in have
actually risen slightly during the past few hours. It appears that
any drizzle/freezing drizzle or flurries, associated with weak
lift due to weak northwest flow shortwaves dropping southeastward
through WI and IL, will remain east of our forecast area for the
rest of tonight.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover, tafs
along Mississippi River to see mvfr cigs move back in around 02z
Tuesday in KUIN and around 05z Tuesday in metro area. KCOU to
remain mostly clear through forecast period. KUIN to scatter by
mid morning on Tuesday while metro are will not clear out til
towards 00z Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridge to build in
and winds will veer to the east towards end of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover,
metro area will see mvfr cigs move back in around 05z Tuesday.
Cigs will not clear out til towards 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridge to build in and winds will veer to the
east towards end of forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 270351
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
951 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Low level clouds will continue to advect southeastward through IL
and portions of eastern MO for the rest of tonight. Although the
coldest air was over the eastern/northeastern portion of our
forecast area, the low level cloud cover was keeping surface
temperatures from falling much. The temperatures across portions of
eastern MO where these low level clouds have moved in have
actually risen slightly during the past few hours. It appears that
any drizzle/freezing drizzle or flurries, associated with weak
lift due to weak northwest flow shortwaves dropping southeastward
through WI and IL, will remain east of our forecast area for the
rest of tonight.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover, tafs
along Mississippi River to see mvfr cigs move back in around 02z
Tuesday in KUIN and around 05z Tuesday in metro area. KCOU to
remain mostly clear through forecast period. KUIN to scatter by
mid morning on Tuesday while metro are will not clear out til
towards 00z Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridge to build in
and winds will veer to the east towards end of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover,
metro area will see mvfr cigs move back in around 05z Tuesday.
Cigs will not clear out til towards 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridge to build in and winds will veer to the
east towards end of forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 270351
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
951 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Low level clouds will continue to advect southeastward through IL
and portions of eastern MO for the rest of tonight. Although the
coldest air was over the eastern/northeastern portion of our
forecast area, the low level cloud cover was keeping surface
temperatures from falling much. The temperatures across portions of
eastern MO where these low level clouds have moved in have
actually risen slightly during the past few hours. It appears that
any drizzle/freezing drizzle or flurries, associated with weak
lift due to weak northwest flow shortwaves dropping southeastward
through WI and IL, will remain east of our forecast area for the
rest of tonight.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover, tafs
along Mississippi River to see mvfr cigs move back in around 02z
Tuesday in KUIN and around 05z Tuesday in metro area. KCOU to
remain mostly clear through forecast period. KUIN to scatter by
mid morning on Tuesday while metro are will not clear out til
towards 00z Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridge to build in
and winds will veer to the east towards end of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover,
metro area will see mvfr cigs move back in around 05z Tuesday.
Cigs will not clear out til towards 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridge to build in and winds will veer to the
east towards end of forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 262354
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover, tafs
along Mississippi River to see mvfr cigs move back in around 02z
Tuesday in KUIN and around 05z Tuesday in metro area. KCOU to
remain mostly clear through forecast period. KUIN to scatter by
mid morning on Tuesday while metro are will not clear out til
towards 00z Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridge to build in
and winds will veer to the east towards end of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover,
metro area will see mvfr cigs move back in around 05z Tuesday.
Cigs will not clear out til towards 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridge to build in and winds will veer to the
east towards end of forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262354
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover, tafs
along Mississippi River to see mvfr cigs move back in around 02z
Tuesday in KUIN and around 05z Tuesday in metro area. KCOU to
remain mostly clear through forecast period. KUIN to scatter by
mid morning on Tuesday while metro are will not clear out til
towards 00z Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridge to build in
and winds will veer to the east towards end of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover,
metro area will see mvfr cigs move back in around 05z Tuesday.
Cigs will not clear out til towards 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridge to build in and winds will veer to the
east towards end of forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262354
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover, tafs
along Mississippi River to see mvfr cigs move back in around 02z
Tuesday in KUIN and around 05z Tuesday in metro area. KCOU to
remain mostly clear through forecast period. KUIN to scatter by
mid morning on Tuesday while metro are will not clear out til
towards 00z Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridge to build in
and winds will veer to the east towards end of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover,
metro area will see mvfr cigs move back in around 05z Tuesday.
Cigs will not clear out til towards 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridge to build in and winds will veer to the
east towards end of forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 262354
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover, tafs
along Mississippi River to see mvfr cigs move back in around 02z
Tuesday in KUIN and around 05z Tuesday in metro area. KCOU to
remain mostly clear through forecast period. KUIN to scatter by
mid morning on Tuesday while metro are will not clear out til
towards 00z Wednesday. In the meantime, surface ridge to build in
and winds will veer to the east towards end of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Next clipper system moving through forecast area this evening, so
winds to veer to the west then northwest. As for cloud cover,
metro area will see mvfr cigs move back in around 05z Tuesday.
Cigs will not clear out til towards 01z Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridge to build in and winds will veer to the
east towards end of forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262336
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
536 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a sfc
ridge expected to move through the region during this taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262336
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
536 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a sfc
ridge expected to move through the region during this taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262307
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
507 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Tonight: Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to the northeast overnight
with speeds reducing to around 5 kts. There is some potential for
patchy fog over northeastern to northern Missouri tonight, with NAM
and SREF probabilities relatively high. Uncertainty lies with modest
wind speeds remaining and some drier air gradually moving into the
area. Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows
falling into the lower 30s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: With the influences of the departing surface high
pressure, Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler with easterly
boundary layer winds and shallower mixing. Afternoon readings are
expected to range from the middle 40s northeast to the middle 50s
southwest. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins
to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s. Dry
weather is expected through the warm period.

Extended: An upper disturbance will drop southeast from the Missouri
Valley to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with an accompanying cold
front to push through the forecast area, bringing cooler
temperatures into the area. Any appreciable weather should remain
just to the northeast of the area on Thursday with the passage of
the upper low. Models have trended to a more active pattern this
weekend with the approach of a northern stream positively-tilted
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest profiles supportive of
snow, or at least a rain-snow mix, through precipitation amounts
still vary greatly. Colder air is expected to follow behind the next
cold front and the subsequent exit of precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Will see a
gradual turning of the winds from the NW to E and ultimately out of
the SE by noon on Tuesday. Some models are hinting at the development
of early morning fog. This looks to affect areas mostly to the east
of the terminals, but will monitor the developing setup and adjust
forecast if necessary for the 06Z issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 262151
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while
a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific
NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja
Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and
flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS
Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into
the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the
closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All
this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind
for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce
the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk.

At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across
IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA
behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and
60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc
ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to
become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough
on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to
near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed.
The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with
temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize
that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that
most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have
just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the
CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern
Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning
temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave
comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is
expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system.

There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA
on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on
Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO
on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a
blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to
expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively
as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV
across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic
set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing.

2%

.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the
wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile,
another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with
height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun
aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late
Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the
details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn
Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from
the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but
consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the
next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution
attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Upper level disturbance moving southeast through the Midwest is
producing spotty areas of light snow across parts of west central
and southwest Illinois. KUIN had about 10-20 minutes of light snow
which dropped vsby to IFR very briefly. Brief periods of IFR will
be possible through the early afternoon as this area of snow moves
southeast, but for the most part MVFR ceilings will prevail along
and east of the Mississippi this afternoon with unrestricted
visibilities. Expect VFR conditions to prevail over central
Missouri at least into early evening. Should see a clearing trend
this afternoon at least up to the Mississippi river, but then
guidance brings another round of MVFR clouds down across the area
this evening. MVFR ceilings will likely hang across the area
through most if not all of Tuesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings will be scattering at Lambert over the next hour or
two, and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail after that
until evening. There may be a few snow flurries in the area
through 19-20Z as well, but do not expect snow heavy enough to
affect flight conditions.  Guidance brings another area of MVFR
ceilings down from Iowa along the Mississippi during the mid to
late evening hours. Looks like ceilings could fall below 2,000ft
for a short period overnight tonight, but confidence is not high
in that at this time. Ceilings between 2,000-3,000ft are expected
to prevail through Tuesday.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 262100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Tonight: Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to the northeast overnight
with speeds reducing to around 5 kts. There is some potential for
patchy fog over northeastern to northern Missouri tonight, with NAM
and SREF probabilities relatively high. Uncertainty lies with modest
wind speeds remaining and some drier air gradually moving into the
area. Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows
falling into the lower 30s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: With the influences of the departing surface high
pressure, Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler with easterly
boundary layer winds and shallower mixing. Afternoon readings are
expected to range from the middle 40s northeast to the middle 50s
southwest. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins
to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s. Dry
weather is expected through the warm period.

Extended: An upper disturbance will drop southeast from the Missouri
Valley to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with an accompanying cold
front to push through the forecast area, bringing cooler
temperatures into the area. Any appreciable weather should remain
just to the northeast of the area on Thursday with the passage of
the upper low. Models have trended to a more active pattern this
weekend with the approach of a northern stream positively-tilted
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest profiles supportive of
snow, or at least a rain-snow mix, through precipitation amounts
still vary greatly. Colder air is expected to follow behind the next
cold front and the subsequent exit of precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR expected to continue. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are
expected through mid-afternoon before wind speeds relax prior to
sunset. Wind direction will gradually veer with time. Fog potential
looks to reside well to the north and east of TAF sites overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 262100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Tonight: Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight.
Surface winds will gradually veer around to the northeast overnight
with speeds reducing to around 5 kts. There is some potential for
patchy fog over northeastern to northern Missouri tonight, with NAM
and SREF probabilities relatively high. Uncertainty lies with modest
wind speeds remaining and some drier air gradually moving into the
area. Otherwise, a relatively quiet night is expected with lows
falling into the lower 30s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: With the influences of the departing surface high
pressure, Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler with easterly
boundary layer winds and shallower mixing. Afternoon readings are
expected to range from the middle 40s northeast to the middle 50s
southwest. The warmest day for the forecast area will occur on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the upper pattern begins
to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to upper 60s. Dry
weather is expected through the warm period.

Extended: An upper disturbance will drop southeast from the Missouri
Valley to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with an accompanying cold
front to push through the forecast area, bringing cooler
temperatures into the area. Any appreciable weather should remain
just to the northeast of the area on Thursday with the passage of
the upper low. Models have trended to a more active pattern this
weekend with the approach of a northern stream positively-tilted
shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest profiles supportive of
snow, or at least a rain-snow mix, through precipitation amounts
still vary greatly. Colder air is expected to follow behind the next
cold front and the subsequent exit of precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR expected to continue. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are
expected through mid-afternoon before wind speeds relax prior to
sunset. Wind direction will gradually veer with time. Fog potential
looks to reside well to the north and east of TAF sites overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KSGF 262002
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
202 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight.

A surface trough of low pressure will push across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from southwesterly to westerly and
northwesterly. Surface wind gusts may approach 20 kts.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Tuesday
maintaining the VFR conditions.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 262002
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
202 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies, with readings ranging from the the low to mid 50s across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, to the upper 40s across
south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks as of 2 PM.

Tonight should be cool and clear, as temperatures fall into the 30s
and winds become light from the northwest behind a secondary surface
trough which is passing through the area today.  Heights aloft will
continue to rise heading into the day Tuesday as an upper level
ridge begins to move east toward the region.  Expect to see a pretty
decent range in temperatures on Tuesday, with readings from the mid 60s
across far southwestern Missouri, to the upper 40s over central/mid
Missouri. Winds on Tuesday will be light and variable for the most
part, courtesy of a bit of surface ridging that will poke into the
area from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Southerly winds will then increase heading into Wednesday, as low
pressure begins to form in the Central Plains ahead of a low
amplitude shortwave traversing the Front Range. Sustained 20-25 MPH
winds can be expected Wednesday across the I-49 corridor, with a few
gusts approaching 35 MPH during the afternoon hours.  Those
southerly winds will help usher in very warm temperatures for
Wednesday, as highs approach 70 degrees across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.  Readings will be a little cooler to the east
(generally mid to upper 50s east of Highway 65), but will
nonetheless be 10-15 degrees above seasonable averages.  Despite
reaching almost 70 degrees in some locations, it doesn`t appear at
this point that any records will be in jeopardy, with 73 and 74 on
the record books for Joplin and Springfield, respectively.

A dry cold front will then pass through the area on Thursday
morning, returning temperatures to more seasonal levels for the
remainder of the workweek.  Highs Thursday and Friday will top out
in the low to mid 40s.

The weekend forecast continues to look intriguing this afternoon,
as the extended model suite struggles with how to handle an expected
closed low or trough off the Baja coast.  This morning`s 12Z
iterations have kept this feature in the form of a semi-phased
upper low, and both the ECMWF and GFS push a rather large shield of
precipitation into the area Saturday.  Temperature profiles would
suggest a snow or rain/snow mix, with surface temps generally warm
enough to keep any significant precipitation at bay.  All that said,
run to run model performance has been rather poor, with significant
changes to the overall scenario every 6-12 hours.  In the end, this
weekend`s forecast is something worth watching, but it`s still far
too early to draw any conclusions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight.

A surface trough of low pressure will push across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from southwesterly to westerly and
northwesterly. Surface wind gusts may approach 20 kts.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Tuesday
maintaining the VFR conditions.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261813
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1213 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Radar and satellite data at 08z indicate another clipper system over
northern MN and producing a swath of pcpn out ahead of it on its
eastern flank but also with good pcpn coverage on its southern
periphery as well.  Mostly cloudy skies extend from this clipper
well to the southeast where they run up against the system that just
moved thru our region on Sunday.  Some breaks in the clouds were
over the STL metro area.  Temps for most areas are in the 25-30F
range.

Model data is in good agreement on phasing of strong WAA,
frontogenesis and broadscale lift from shortwave TROF pushing thru
IA and into west-central IL this morning and working its way thru
southern IL this afternoon with its backedge near the MS river.
This should be enough for isolated to widely scattered showers and
have added 20-30 percent PoPs to the forecast.  The atmosphere also
looks to support varied pcpn-types, with snow initially supported
thru midday and then the western edge of the pcpn near the MS river
transitioning to rain during the afternoon with snow likely
maintaining some presence thru the day in the far eastern CWA around
Vandalia and Salem, IL.

Most QPF amounts will struggle to measure by the very definition of
the low PoPs in the forecast, but some isolated areas in IL may be
able to accumulate a light dusting of snow.

Otherwise, temps will vary widely across the forecast area today
with readings remaining in the 30s for the Salem/Vandalia, IL areas,
but rising into the low 50s for central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the period. Surface fnt
associated with the approaching clipper shud be E of the CWA by 00z
this evening. Precip shud have exited the region by this eve as
well. Clouds are expected to linger thru the night as the low pulls
sewd out of the region. Expect clouds to be slow to clear out on
Tues as well. Have trended cooler thru Tues due to the clouds.
Thermal ridge extends over the region by mid-day Wed. Have raised
temps on Wed and kept temps aoa the warmer guidance. Some
uncertainty exists regarding temps thru this period as mdl solns
begin to diverge with respect to temps and sfc low placement.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns continue to diverge thru the period. Mdls differ in timing
of the system to impact the area thru the weekend. Have kept slight
chance PoPs to account for this system. Will keep PoPs low until
solns come into better agreement.

Mdls do agree with temps being much cooler late this week behind the
system on Wed, then cooler still with the reinforcing trof late this
week. Attm, mdls agree that temps will be cold enuf so that any
precip that does occur late this week and into this weekend shud be
SN. Will continue to monitor as the system approaches.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Upper level disturbance moving southeast through the Midwest is
producing spotty areas of light snow across parts of west central
and southwest Illinois. KUIN had about 10-20 minutes of light snow
which dropped vsby to IFR very briefly. Brief periods of IFR will
be possible through the early afternoon as this area of snow moves
southeast, but for the most part MVFR ceilings will prevail along
and east of the Mississippi this afternoon with unrestricted
visibilities. Expect VFR conditions to prevail over central
Missouri at least into early evening. Should see a clearing trend
this afternoon at least up to the Mississippi river, but then
guidance brings another round of MVFR clouds down across the area
this evening. MVFR ceilings will likely hang across the area
through most if not all of Tuesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings will be scattering at Lambert over the next hour or
two, and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail after that
until evening. There may be a few snow flurries in the area
through 19-20Z as well, but do not expect snow heavy enough to
affect flight conditions.  Guidance brings another area of MVFR
ceilings down from Iowa along the Mississippi during the mid to
late evening hours. Looks like ceilings could fall below 2,000ft
for a short period overnight tonight, but confidence is not high
in that at this time. Ceilings between 2,000-3,000ft are expected
to prevail through Tuesday.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261813
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1213 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Radar and satellite data at 08z indicate another clipper system over
northern MN and producing a swath of pcpn out ahead of it on its
eastern flank but also with good pcpn coverage on its southern
periphery as well.  Mostly cloudy skies extend from this clipper
well to the southeast where they run up against the system that just
moved thru our region on Sunday.  Some breaks in the clouds were
over the STL metro area.  Temps for most areas are in the 25-30F
range.

Model data is in good agreement on phasing of strong WAA,
frontogenesis and broadscale lift from shortwave TROF pushing thru
IA and into west-central IL this morning and working its way thru
southern IL this afternoon with its backedge near the MS river.
This should be enough for isolated to widely scattered showers and
have added 20-30 percent PoPs to the forecast.  The atmosphere also
looks to support varied pcpn-types, with snow initially supported
thru midday and then the western edge of the pcpn near the MS river
transitioning to rain during the afternoon with snow likely
maintaining some presence thru the day in the far eastern CWA around
Vandalia and Salem, IL.

Most QPF amounts will struggle to measure by the very definition of
the low PoPs in the forecast, but some isolated areas in IL may be
able to accumulate a light dusting of snow.

Otherwise, temps will vary widely across the forecast area today
with readings remaining in the 30s for the Salem/Vandalia, IL areas,
but rising into the low 50s for central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the period. Surface fnt
associated with the approaching clipper shud be E of the CWA by 00z
this evening. Precip shud have exited the region by this eve as
well. Clouds are expected to linger thru the night as the low pulls
sewd out of the region. Expect clouds to be slow to clear out on
Tues as well. Have trended cooler thru Tues due to the clouds.
Thermal ridge extends over the region by mid-day Wed. Have raised
temps on Wed and kept temps aoa the warmer guidance. Some
uncertainty exists regarding temps thru this period as mdl solns
begin to diverge with respect to temps and sfc low placement.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns continue to diverge thru the period. Mdls differ in timing
of the system to impact the area thru the weekend. Have kept slight
chance PoPs to account for this system. Will keep PoPs low until
solns come into better agreement.

Mdls do agree with temps being much cooler late this week behind the
system on Wed, then cooler still with the reinforcing trof late this
week. Attm, mdls agree that temps will be cold enuf so that any
precip that does occur late this week and into this weekend shud be
SN. Will continue to monitor as the system approaches.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Upper level disturbance moving southeast through the Midwest is
producing spotty areas of light snow across parts of west central
and southwest Illinois. KUIN had about 10-20 minutes of light snow
which dropped vsby to IFR very briefly. Brief periods of IFR will
be possible through the early afternoon as this area of snow moves
southeast, but for the most part MVFR ceilings will prevail along
and east of the Mississippi this afternoon with unrestricted
visibilities. Expect VFR conditions to prevail over central
Missouri at least into early evening. Should see a clearing trend
this afternoon at least up to the Mississippi river, but then
guidance brings another round of MVFR clouds down across the area
this evening. MVFR ceilings will likely hang across the area
through most if not all of Tuesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings will be scattering at Lambert over the next hour or
two, and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail after that
until evening. There may be a few snow flurries in the area
through 19-20Z as well, but do not expect snow heavy enough to
affect flight conditions.  Guidance brings another area of MVFR
ceilings down from Iowa along the Mississippi during the mid to
late evening hours. Looks like ceilings could fall below 2,000ft
for a short period overnight tonight, but confidence is not high
in that at this time. Ceilings between 2,000-3,000ft are expected
to prevail through Tuesday.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261813
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1213 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Radar and satellite data at 08z indicate another clipper system over
northern MN and producing a swath of pcpn out ahead of it on its
eastern flank but also with good pcpn coverage on its southern
periphery as well.  Mostly cloudy skies extend from this clipper
well to the southeast where they run up against the system that just
moved thru our region on Sunday.  Some breaks in the clouds were
over the STL metro area.  Temps for most areas are in the 25-30F
range.

Model data is in good agreement on phasing of strong WAA,
frontogenesis and broadscale lift from shortwave TROF pushing thru
IA and into west-central IL this morning and working its way thru
southern IL this afternoon with its backedge near the MS river.
This should be enough for isolated to widely scattered showers and
have added 20-30 percent PoPs to the forecast.  The atmosphere also
looks to support varied pcpn-types, with snow initially supported
thru midday and then the western edge of the pcpn near the MS river
transitioning to rain during the afternoon with snow likely
maintaining some presence thru the day in the far eastern CWA around
Vandalia and Salem, IL.

Most QPF amounts will struggle to measure by the very definition of
the low PoPs in the forecast, but some isolated areas in IL may be
able to accumulate a light dusting of snow.

Otherwise, temps will vary widely across the forecast area today
with readings remaining in the 30s for the Salem/Vandalia, IL areas,
but rising into the low 50s for central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the period. Surface fnt
associated with the approaching clipper shud be E of the CWA by 00z
this evening. Precip shud have exited the region by this eve as
well. Clouds are expected to linger thru the night as the low pulls
sewd out of the region. Expect clouds to be slow to clear out on
Tues as well. Have trended cooler thru Tues due to the clouds.
Thermal ridge extends over the region by mid-day Wed. Have raised
temps on Wed and kept temps aoa the warmer guidance. Some
uncertainty exists regarding temps thru this period as mdl solns
begin to diverge with respect to temps and sfc low placement.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns continue to diverge thru the period. Mdls differ in timing
of the system to impact the area thru the weekend. Have kept slight
chance PoPs to account for this system. Will keep PoPs low until
solns come into better agreement.

Mdls do agree with temps being much cooler late this week behind the
system on Wed, then cooler still with the reinforcing trof late this
week. Attm, mdls agree that temps will be cold enuf so that any
precip that does occur late this week and into this weekend shud be
SN. Will continue to monitor as the system approaches.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Upper level disturbance moving southeast through the Midwest is
producing spotty areas of light snow across parts of west central
and southwest Illinois. KUIN had about 10-20 minutes of light snow
which dropped vsby to IFR very briefly. Brief periods of IFR will
be possible through the early afternoon as this area of snow moves
southeast, but for the most part MVFR ceilings will prevail along
and east of the Mississippi this afternoon with unrestricted
visibilities. Expect VFR conditions to prevail over central
Missouri at least into early evening. Should see a clearing trend
this afternoon at least up to the Mississippi river, but then
guidance brings another round of MVFR clouds down across the area
this evening. MVFR ceilings will likely hang across the area
through most if not all of Tuesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings will be scattering at Lambert over the next hour or
two, and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail after that
until evening. There may be a few snow flurries in the area
through 19-20Z as well, but do not expect snow heavy enough to
affect flight conditions.  Guidance brings another area of MVFR
ceilings down from Iowa along the Mississippi during the mid to
late evening hours. Looks like ceilings could fall below 2,000ft
for a short period overnight tonight, but confidence is not high
in that at this time. Ceilings between 2,000-3,000ft are expected
to prevail through Tuesday.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261813
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1213 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Radar and satellite data at 08z indicate another clipper system over
northern MN and producing a swath of pcpn out ahead of it on its
eastern flank but also with good pcpn coverage on its southern
periphery as well.  Mostly cloudy skies extend from this clipper
well to the southeast where they run up against the system that just
moved thru our region on Sunday.  Some breaks in the clouds were
over the STL metro area.  Temps for most areas are in the 25-30F
range.

Model data is in good agreement on phasing of strong WAA,
frontogenesis and broadscale lift from shortwave TROF pushing thru
IA and into west-central IL this morning and working its way thru
southern IL this afternoon with its backedge near the MS river.
This should be enough for isolated to widely scattered showers and
have added 20-30 percent PoPs to the forecast.  The atmosphere also
looks to support varied pcpn-types, with snow initially supported
thru midday and then the western edge of the pcpn near the MS river
transitioning to rain during the afternoon with snow likely
maintaining some presence thru the day in the far eastern CWA around
Vandalia and Salem, IL.

Most QPF amounts will struggle to measure by the very definition of
the low PoPs in the forecast, but some isolated areas in IL may be
able to accumulate a light dusting of snow.

Otherwise, temps will vary widely across the forecast area today
with readings remaining in the 30s for the Salem/Vandalia, IL areas,
but rising into the low 50s for central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the period. Surface fnt
associated with the approaching clipper shud be E of the CWA by 00z
this evening. Precip shud have exited the region by this eve as
well. Clouds are expected to linger thru the night as the low pulls
sewd out of the region. Expect clouds to be slow to clear out on
Tues as well. Have trended cooler thru Tues due to the clouds.
Thermal ridge extends over the region by mid-day Wed. Have raised
temps on Wed and kept temps aoa the warmer guidance. Some
uncertainty exists regarding temps thru this period as mdl solns
begin to diverge with respect to temps and sfc low placement.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns continue to diverge thru the period. Mdls differ in timing
of the system to impact the area thru the weekend. Have kept slight
chance PoPs to account for this system. Will keep PoPs low until
solns come into better agreement.

Mdls do agree with temps being much cooler late this week behind the
system on Wed, then cooler still with the reinforcing trof late this
week. Attm, mdls agree that temps will be cold enuf so that any
precip that does occur late this week and into this weekend shud be
SN. Will continue to monitor as the system approaches.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Upper level disturbance moving southeast through the Midwest is
producing spotty areas of light snow across parts of west central
and southwest Illinois. KUIN had about 10-20 minutes of light snow
which dropped vsby to IFR very briefly. Brief periods of IFR will
be possible through the early afternoon as this area of snow moves
southeast, but for the most part MVFR ceilings will prevail along
and east of the Mississippi this afternoon with unrestricted
visibilities. Expect VFR conditions to prevail over central
Missouri at least into early evening. Should see a clearing trend
this afternoon at least up to the Mississippi river, but then
guidance brings another round of MVFR clouds down across the area
this evening. MVFR ceilings will likely hang across the area
through most if not all of Tuesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR ceilings will be scattering at Lambert over the next hour or
two, and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail after that
until evening. There may be a few snow flurries in the area
through 19-20Z as well, but do not expect snow heavy enough to
affect flight conditions.  Guidance brings another area of MVFR
ceilings down from Iowa along the Mississippi during the mid to
late evening hours. Looks like ceilings could fall below 2,000ft
for a short period overnight tonight, but confidence is not high
in that at this time. Ceilings between 2,000-3,000ft are expected
to prevail through Tuesday.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 261719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1119 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR expected to continue. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are
expected through mid-afternoon before wind speeds relax prior to
sunset. Wind direction will gradually veer with time. Fog potential
looks to reside well to the north and east of TAF sites overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 261719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1119 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR expected to continue. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are
expected through mid-afternoon before wind speeds relax prior to
sunset. Wind direction will gradually veer with time. Fog potential
looks to reside well to the north and east of TAF sites overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KSGF 261715
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1115 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Clouds were clearing from the west across the eastern Ozarks at
midday while sunshine had returned elsewhere across the Missouri
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas.

Temperatures will respond to the sunshine and southwesterly winds
by rising into the 50s especially west of Highway 65. Temperatures
will be cooler across the eastern Ozarks with highs approaching 50
degrees.

A surface trough of low pressure will move across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from the southwest to the west and
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight.

A surface trough of low pressure will push across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from southwesterly to westerly and
northwesterly. Surface wind gusts may approach 20 kts.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Tuesday
maintaining the VFR conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261715
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1115 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Clouds were clearing from the west across the eastern Ozarks at
midday while sunshine had returned elsewhere across the Missouri
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas.

Temperatures will respond to the sunshine and southwesterly winds
by rising into the 50s especially west of Highway 65. Temperatures
will be cooler across the eastern Ozarks with highs approaching 50
degrees.

A surface trough of low pressure will move across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from the southwest to the west and
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 1115 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals this afternoon
through tonight.

A surface trough of low pressure will push across the region this
afternoon bringing a wind shift from southwesterly to westerly and
northwesterly. Surface wind gusts may approach 20 kts.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Tuesday
maintaining the VFR conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 261113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
513 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 513 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with the main concern for
aviators (other than a record snow storm along the east coast) will
be gusty and veering winds today. Winds this morning are light out of
the SW however they will pick up by late morning out of the WSW
(except at STJ where winds will be out of the W) around 10-15kts with
gusts to around 20kts. This afternoon a cold front will move through
the terminals and winds will veer to the NW btn 10-15kts with gusts
to around 20kts. Winds will subside this evening, while veering to
the N btn 5-10kts. Otrw...expect just sct high cirrus clouds today
before skies clr tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KSGF 261056
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
456 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 453 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Gradual clearing has taken place across the western CWA overnight
with JLN remaining clear, but SGF/BBG still around 1500 ft
overcast. Will continue to see the clearing trend and with SGF/BBG
clearing by mid morning. May have a couple hour window of some
MVFR fog at JLN with a light wind and clear sky, but will only use
a tempo group for this at this time. After clearing, expecting VFR
conditions through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 261050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Radar and satellite data at 08z indicate another clipper system over
northern MN and producing a swath of pcpn out ahead of it on its
eastern flank but also with good pcpn coverage on its southern
periphery as well.  Mostly cloudy skies extend from this clipper
well to the southeast where they run up against the system that just
moved thru our region on Sunday.  Some breaks in the clouds were
over the STL metro area.  Temps for most areas are in the 25-30F
range.

Model data is in good agreement on phasing of strong WAA,
frontogenesis and broadscale lift from shortwave TROF pushing thru
IA and into west-central IL this morning and working its way thru
southern IL this afternoon with its backedge near the MS river.
This should be enough for isolated to widely scattered showers and
have added 20-30 percent PoPs to the forecast.  The atmosphere also
looks to support varied pcpn-types, with snow initially supported
thru midday and then the western edge of the pcpn near the MS river
transitioning to rain during the afternoon with snow likely
maintaining some presence thru the day in the far eastern CWA around
Vandalia and Salem, IL.

Most QPF amounts will struggle to measure by the very definition of
the low PoPs in the forecast, but some isolated areas in IL may be
able to accumulate a light dusting of snow.

Otherwise, temps will vary widely across the forecast area today
with readings remaining in the 30s for the Salem/Vandalia, IL areas,
but rising into the low 50s for central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the period. Surface fnt
associated with the approaching clipper shud be E of the CWA by 00z
this evening. Precip shud have exited the region by this eve as
well. Clouds are expected to linger thru the night as the low pulls
sewd out of the region. Expect clouds to be slow to clear out on
Tues as well. Have trended cooler thru Tues due to the clouds.
Thermal ridge extends over the region by mid-day Wed. Have raised
temps on Wed and kept temps aoa the warmer guidance. Some
uncertainty exists regarding temps thru this period as mdl solns
begin to diverge with respect to temps and sfc low placement.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns continue to diverge thru the period. Mdls differ in timing
of the system to impact the area thru the weekend. Have kept slight
chance PoPs to account for this system. Will keep PoPs low until
solns come into better agreement.

Mdls do agree with temps being much cooler late this week behind the
system on Wed, then cooler still with the reinforcing trof late this
week. Attm, mdls agree that temps will be cold enuf so that any
precip that does occur late this week and into this weekend shud be
SN. Will continue to monitor as the system approaches.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 450 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

A region of MVFR CIGs will prevail for all TAF sites for early in
the TAF period, but a steady push to the east should end it during
the late morning and early afternoon hours, albeit temporarily for
most sites. At about this time, an upper level disturbance will
race down from the northwest and push isolated to scattered rain
and snow showers for areas generally near and east of the MS
river. For now will list VCSH for these TAF sites and amend to
TEMPOs as needed. By 21z, the pcpn threat is expected to have
ended for all TAF sites with what should also be a break in the
MVFR CIGs. Surface winds during this time will back from the S-SW
but with a TROF passing thru in the afternoon and early evening,
will then veer the winds back from the NW. With the renewed NW
winds, MVFR CIGs are then expected to expand back into TAF sites
near the MS river and to the east.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR CIGs will expand back into the airport
shortly after the valid time, with isolated showers expected
during the midday and early afternoon hours. Pcpn-types are
expected to be liquid by this time. Have handled as a VCSH for now
and will upgrade to TEMPO as needed. W-NW surface winds will back
from the S-SW today and should get the MVFR CIGs out of the area
temporarily but with a TROF then sliding thru and veering winds
from the NW this evening, the MVFR CIGs are expected to make a
return.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 261050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Radar and satellite data at 08z indicate another clipper system over
northern MN and producing a swath of pcpn out ahead of it on its
eastern flank but also with good pcpn coverage on its southern
periphery as well.  Mostly cloudy skies extend from this clipper
well to the southeast where they run up against the system that just
moved thru our region on Sunday.  Some breaks in the clouds were
over the STL metro area.  Temps for most areas are in the 25-30F
range.

Model data is in good agreement on phasing of strong WAA,
frontogenesis and broadscale lift from shortwave TROF pushing thru
IA and into west-central IL this morning and working its way thru
southern IL this afternoon with its backedge near the MS river.
This should be enough for isolated to widely scattered showers and
have added 20-30 percent PoPs to the forecast.  The atmosphere also
looks to support varied pcpn-types, with snow initially supported
thru midday and then the western edge of the pcpn near the MS river
transitioning to rain during the afternoon with snow likely
maintaining some presence thru the day in the far eastern CWA around
Vandalia and Salem, IL.

Most QPF amounts will struggle to measure by the very definition of
the low PoPs in the forecast, but some isolated areas in IL may be
able to accumulate a light dusting of snow.

Otherwise, temps will vary widely across the forecast area today
with readings remaining in the 30s for the Salem/Vandalia, IL areas,
but rising into the low 50s for central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the period. Surface fnt
associated with the approaching clipper shud be E of the CWA by 00z
this evening. Precip shud have exited the region by this eve as
well. Clouds are expected to linger thru the night as the low pulls
sewd out of the region. Expect clouds to be slow to clear out on
Tues as well. Have trended cooler thru Tues due to the clouds.
Thermal ridge extends over the region by mid-day Wed. Have raised
temps on Wed and kept temps aoa the warmer guidance. Some
uncertainty exists regarding temps thru this period as mdl solns
begin to diverge with respect to temps and sfc low placement.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns continue to diverge thru the period. Mdls differ in timing
of the system to impact the area thru the weekend. Have kept slight
chance PoPs to account for this system. Will keep PoPs low until
solns come into better agreement.

Mdls do agree with temps being much cooler late this week behind the
system on Wed, then cooler still with the reinforcing trof late this
week. Attm, mdls agree that temps will be cold enuf so that any
precip that does occur late this week and into this weekend shud be
SN. Will continue to monitor as the system approaches.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 450 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

A region of MVFR CIGs will prevail for all TAF sites for early in
the TAF period, but a steady push to the east should end it during
the late morning and early afternoon hours, albeit temporarily for
most sites. At about this time, an upper level disturbance will
race down from the northwest and push isolated to scattered rain
and snow showers for areas generally near and east of the MS
river. For now will list VCSH for these TAF sites and amend to
TEMPOs as needed. By 21z, the pcpn threat is expected to have
ended for all TAF sites with what should also be a break in the
MVFR CIGs. Surface winds during this time will back from the S-SW
but with a TROF passing thru in the afternoon and early evening,
will then veer the winds back from the NW. With the renewed NW
winds, MVFR CIGs are then expected to expand back into TAF sites
near the MS river and to the east.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR CIGs will expand back into the airport
shortly after the valid time, with isolated showers expected
during the midday and early afternoon hours. Pcpn-types are
expected to be liquid by this time. Have handled as a VCSH for now
and will upgrade to TEMPO as needed. W-NW surface winds will back
from the S-SW today and should get the MVFR CIGs out of the area
temporarily but with a TROF then sliding thru and veering winds
from the NW this evening, the MVFR CIGs are expected to make a
return.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 261050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Radar and satellite data at 08z indicate another clipper system over
northern MN and producing a swath of pcpn out ahead of it on its
eastern flank but also with good pcpn coverage on its southern
periphery as well.  Mostly cloudy skies extend from this clipper
well to the southeast where they run up against the system that just
moved thru our region on Sunday.  Some breaks in the clouds were
over the STL metro area.  Temps for most areas are in the 25-30F
range.

Model data is in good agreement on phasing of strong WAA,
frontogenesis and broadscale lift from shortwave TROF pushing thru
IA and into west-central IL this morning and working its way thru
southern IL this afternoon with its backedge near the MS river.
This should be enough for isolated to widely scattered showers and
have added 20-30 percent PoPs to the forecast.  The atmosphere also
looks to support varied pcpn-types, with snow initially supported
thru midday and then the western edge of the pcpn near the MS river
transitioning to rain during the afternoon with snow likely
maintaining some presence thru the day in the far eastern CWA around
Vandalia and Salem, IL.

Most QPF amounts will struggle to measure by the very definition of
the low PoPs in the forecast, but some isolated areas in IL may be
able to accumulate a light dusting of snow.

Otherwise, temps will vary widely across the forecast area today
with readings remaining in the 30s for the Salem/Vandalia, IL areas,
but rising into the low 50s for central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the period. Surface fnt
associated with the approaching clipper shud be E of the CWA by 00z
this evening. Precip shud have exited the region by this eve as
well. Clouds are expected to linger thru the night as the low pulls
sewd out of the region. Expect clouds to be slow to clear out on
Tues as well. Have trended cooler thru Tues due to the clouds.
Thermal ridge extends over the region by mid-day Wed. Have raised
temps on Wed and kept temps aoa the warmer guidance. Some
uncertainty exists regarding temps thru this period as mdl solns
begin to diverge with respect to temps and sfc low placement.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns continue to diverge thru the period. Mdls differ in timing
of the system to impact the area thru the weekend. Have kept slight
chance PoPs to account for this system. Will keep PoPs low until
solns come into better agreement.

Mdls do agree with temps being much cooler late this week behind the
system on Wed, then cooler still with the reinforcing trof late this
week. Attm, mdls agree that temps will be cold enuf so that any
precip that does occur late this week and into this weekend shud be
SN. Will continue to monitor as the system approaches.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 450 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

A region of MVFR CIGs will prevail for all TAF sites for early in
the TAF period, but a steady push to the east should end it during
the late morning and early afternoon hours, albeit temporarily for
most sites. At about this time, an upper level disturbance will
race down from the northwest and push isolated to scattered rain
and snow showers for areas generally near and east of the MS
river. For now will list VCSH for these TAF sites and amend to
TEMPOs as needed. By 21z, the pcpn threat is expected to have
ended for all TAF sites with what should also be a break in the
MVFR CIGs. Surface winds during this time will back from the S-SW
but with a TROF passing thru in the afternoon and early evening,
will then veer the winds back from the NW. With the renewed NW
winds, MVFR CIGs are then expected to expand back into TAF sites
near the MS river and to the east.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR CIGs will expand back into the airport
shortly after the valid time, with isolated showers expected
during the midday and early afternoon hours. Pcpn-types are
expected to be liquid by this time. Have handled as a VCSH for now
and will upgrade to TEMPO as needed. W-NW surface winds will back
from the S-SW today and should get the MVFR CIGs out of the area
temporarily but with a TROF then sliding thru and veering winds
from the NW this evening, the MVFR CIGs are expected to make a
return.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 261050
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Radar and satellite data at 08z indicate another clipper system over
northern MN and producing a swath of pcpn out ahead of it on its
eastern flank but also with good pcpn coverage on its southern
periphery as well.  Mostly cloudy skies extend from this clipper
well to the southeast where they run up against the system that just
moved thru our region on Sunday.  Some breaks in the clouds were
over the STL metro area.  Temps for most areas are in the 25-30F
range.

Model data is in good agreement on phasing of strong WAA,
frontogenesis and broadscale lift from shortwave TROF pushing thru
IA and into west-central IL this morning and working its way thru
southern IL this afternoon with its backedge near the MS river.
This should be enough for isolated to widely scattered showers and
have added 20-30 percent PoPs to the forecast.  The atmosphere also
looks to support varied pcpn-types, with snow initially supported
thru midday and then the western edge of the pcpn near the MS river
transitioning to rain during the afternoon with snow likely
maintaining some presence thru the day in the far eastern CWA around
Vandalia and Salem, IL.

Most QPF amounts will struggle to measure by the very definition of
the low PoPs in the forecast, but some isolated areas in IL may be
able to accumulate a light dusting of snow.

Otherwise, temps will vary widely across the forecast area today
with readings remaining in the 30s for the Salem/Vandalia, IL areas,
but rising into the low 50s for central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the period. Surface fnt
associated with the approaching clipper shud be E of the CWA by 00z
this evening. Precip shud have exited the region by this eve as
well. Clouds are expected to linger thru the night as the low pulls
sewd out of the region. Expect clouds to be slow to clear out on
Tues as well. Have trended cooler thru Tues due to the clouds.
Thermal ridge extends over the region by mid-day Wed. Have raised
temps on Wed and kept temps aoa the warmer guidance. Some
uncertainty exists regarding temps thru this period as mdl solns
begin to diverge with respect to temps and sfc low placement.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns continue to diverge thru the period. Mdls differ in timing
of the system to impact the area thru the weekend. Have kept slight
chance PoPs to account for this system. Will keep PoPs low until
solns come into better agreement.

Mdls do agree with temps being much cooler late this week behind the
system on Wed, then cooler still with the reinforcing trof late this
week. Attm, mdls agree that temps will be cold enuf so that any
precip that does occur late this week and into this weekend shud be
SN. Will continue to monitor as the system approaches.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 450 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

A region of MVFR CIGs will prevail for all TAF sites for early in
the TAF period, but a steady push to the east should end it during
the late morning and early afternoon hours, albeit temporarily for
most sites. At about this time, an upper level disturbance will
race down from the northwest and push isolated to scattered rain
and snow showers for areas generally near and east of the MS
river. For now will list VCSH for these TAF sites and amend to
TEMPOs as needed. By 21z, the pcpn threat is expected to have
ended for all TAF sites with what should also be a break in the
MVFR CIGs. Surface winds during this time will back from the S-SW
but with a TROF passing thru in the afternoon and early evening,
will then veer the winds back from the NW. With the renewed NW
winds, MVFR CIGs are then expected to expand back into TAF sites
near the MS river and to the east.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR CIGs will expand back into the airport
shortly after the valid time, with isolated showers expected
during the midday and early afternoon hours. Pcpn-types are
expected to be liquid by this time. Have handled as a VCSH for now
and will upgrade to TEMPO as needed. W-NW surface winds will back
from the S-SW today and should get the MVFR CIGs out of the area
temporarily but with a TROF then sliding thru and veering winds
from the NW this evening, the MVFR CIGs are expected to make a
return.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 260922
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KSGF 260922
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KSGF 260922
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KSGF 260922
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The surface low that brought the light rain to the area on Sunday
is now pushing towards the east coast. Clouds are slowly clearing
from northwest to southeast, with a clear sky occurring across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri as of 3 AM. The
clouds will continue to slowly clear across the rest of the area
this morning. There could be some light fog develop across the
western portions of the forecast area where clouds have cleared
this morning and where wind is becoming light.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures ranging from
the lower 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s across
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri this afternoon
under a mostly sunny sky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A weak upper level disturbance and an area of surface low pressure
will push south out of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday as an upper level ridge will be build east across the
Plains. A cooler air mass will be associated with the upper level
shortwave trough to the east as a warmer air mass will be
spreading east with the ridge. This will leave a good temperature range
across the area on Tuesday as highs across the eastern Ozarks will
warm into the upper 40s and southeastern Kansas warms into the
middle 60s.

The upper level ridge will then build over the region on Wednesday
and will be the warmest day of the week as highs range from the
middle to upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks to near the 70
degree mark across southeastern Kansas.

An upper level trough will push through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Moisture will be limited across the area so no
precipitation is expected with this system, but a cooler more
seasonable air mass will spread into the region for Tuesday into
the weekend.

Another upper level trough will then approach the region Friday
night into the weekend and bring chances for light precipitation
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KLSX 260919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

Radar and satellite data at 08z indicate another clipper system over
northern MN and producing a swath of pcpn out ahead of it on its
eastern flank but also with good pcpn coverage on its southern
periphery as well.  Mostly cloudy skies extend from this clipper
well to the southeast where they run up against the system that just
moved thru our region on Sunday.  Some breaks in the clouds were
over the STL metro area.  Temps for most areas are in the 25-30F
range.

Model data is in good agreement on phasing of strong WAA,
frontogenesis and broadscale lift from shortwave TROF pushing thru
IA and into west-central IL this morning and working its way thru
southern IL this afternoon with its backedge near the MS river.
This should be enough for isolated to widely scattered showers and
have added 20-30 percent PoPs to the forecast.  The atmosphere also
looks to support varied pcpn-types, with snow initially supported
thru midday and then the western edge of the pcpn near the MS river
transitioning to rain during the afternoon with snow likely
maintaining some presence thru the day in the far eastern CWA around
Vandalia and Salem, IL.

Most QPF amounts will struggle to measure by the very definition of
the low PoPs in the forecast, but some isolated areas in IL may be
able to accumulate a light dusting of snow.

Otherwise, temps will vary widely across the forecast area today
with readings remaining in the 30s for the Salem/Vandalia, IL areas,
but rising into the low 50s for central MO.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the period. Surface fnt
associated with the approaching clipper shud be E of the CWA by 00z
this evening. Precip shud have exited the region by this eve as
well. Clouds are expected to linger thru the night as the low pulls
sewd out of the region. Expect clouds to be slow to clear out on
Tues as well. Have trended cooler thru Tues due to the clouds.
Thermal ridge extends over the region by mid-day Wed. Have raised
temps on Wed and kept temps aoa the warmer guidance. Some
uncertainty exists regarding temps thru this period as mdl solns
begin to diverge with respect to temps and sfc low placement.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns continue to diverge thru the period. Mdls differ in timing
of the system to impact the area thru the weekend. Have kept slight
chance PoPs to account for this system. Will keep PoPs low until
solns come into better agreement.

Mdls do agree with temps being much cooler late this week behind the
system on Wed, then cooler still with the reinforcing trof late this
week. Attm, mdls agree that temps will be cold enuf so that any
precip that does occur late this week and into this weekend shud be
SN. Will continue to monitor as the system approaches.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Lingering MVFR SC deck to persist across most of taf sites through
mid morning before scattering out. There is a hole in the mvfr
deck that has made its way into KUIN but should see that fill back
in by 08z Monday. Then next frontal boundary to move through and lower
cigs back down to mvfr for tafs along and east of Mississippi
river, while KCOU to remain vfr. As for winds, to persist from the
north, then back to the southwest to south ahead of next front.
Frontal boundary to move through KCOU by 22z Monday, KUIN by 23z
Monday and metro area by 01z Tuesday. It will be a dry frontal
passage with winds veering to the northwest.

Specifics for KSTL:
Lingering MVFR SC deck to persist across metro area through midday
before lifting and scattering out. Then next frontal boundary to
move through and lower cigs back down to mvfr by 01z Tuesday. As
for winds, to persist from the north, then back to the south ahead
of next front. Frontal passage will be a dry one with winds
veering to the northwest.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     43  33  44  29 /  20   5   0   0
Quincy          42  30  39  27 /  30   5   0   0
Columbia        51  31  46  31 /   5   0   0   0
Jefferson City  52  31  47  31 /   5   0   0   0
Salem           36  31  40  27 /  20  10   0   0
Farmington      45  33  46  27 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 260906
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
306 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Low cloud deck is eroding from west to east and will leave VFR for
the rest of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 260906
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
306 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Short Term (Today - Wednesday night):

The short term will be characterized by dry conditions with
temperatures well above normal. Today, an upper level shortwave
moving through the Upper Midwest will force a weak cold front
through the area during the afternoon. A lack of cold air is
associated with this front however it will provide for enhanced
mixing during the afternoon. With 925mb temps ranging from 5C to 10C
from east to west respectively this will yield highs in the 50s with
a few locations in the western CWA and Metro reaching 60. After
midnight tonight, high pressure will begin to encroach on the CWA
from the west. This will help temperatures fall back into the upper
20s to lower 30s Tuesday morning. High pressure will remain in
control for most of the day Tuesday. However, late in the day, the
high pressure ridge will slide east as an upper level shortwave
rounds an upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies. This will
force a cold front into the Plains and tighten the pressure gradient
across the western CWA. This will lead to temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s over the western CWA while the eastern CWA,
remaining under the influence of the high pressure ridge, will only
achieve the upper 40s. Wednesday, could potentially be a record
setter as the high temperature of 65 degrees at MCI for the date
will be threatened. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge over the
Rockies will be flattened out by the aforementioned upper level
shortwave as it slides east into the area. However, weak upper
ridging will still be present over the region. 850mb temperatures
will range between 10C-13C across the area which will yield highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Late in the day Wednesday the upper
level shortwave will push into the region forcing a cold front into
the CWA. The frontal passage will remain dry Wednesday night as the
better moisture will be north of the CWA. However, this front will
bring an end to the well above normal warmth for the end of January.

Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):

An upper level shortwave will strength as it pushes east of the area
leaving the area under cool northwest flow aloft. Couple that with
modest CAA on Thursday behind a cold front and highs will return to
near normal in the ow to mid 40s. High pressure will move in for
Friday under continued northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Saturday however,
models have not been consistent with the evolution and phasing of
two systems. The first of these system is a deep upper level trough
over the southwestern CONUS the second is an upper level shortwave
moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Models
have continued to flip-flop in recent runs on phasing these two
systems. If these two system phase over the Plains as the most
recent iteration of the EC and GFS would suggest that would increase
the chances of rain or snow on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
if these two systems do not phase as has been suggested by the
previous runs of the EC and GFS the two systems would split the area
leaving conditions dry locally. Consequently, have opted not to
deviate from the blended solution providing for slight chance and
low end chance POPs for the area on Saturday. Behind the systems on
Sunday, high pressure is expected to build back into the area under
reinforced northwesterly flow aloft with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Low cloud deck is eroding from west to east and will leave VFR for
the rest of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260541
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260541
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR ceilings will quickly clear from
west to east over the next few hours as a sfc ridge moves into
the area and low pressure over eastern KY continues to shift east.
Some shallow radiation/ground fog may develop while the winds remain
light under a clear/clearing sky, but a southwest wind should pick
up again fairly quickly after 12z as a sfc trough approaches. Some
gusts of 20 kts will be possible at KJLN and KSGF after 16z with
daytime mixing.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260541
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1141 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Precip over the CWA should be winding down over the next few hours
as upper level impulse works its way SE into the Ohio Valley.
Deformation zone that was so well defined this morning over IA and
n IL certainly falling apart as the afternoon progresses, and have
used a combination of regional radar and HRRR for PoP/weather
trends heading into the early evening. It would appear that the NW
edge of the precip (now all snow) will be near a KCOU-KILX line
by 00z, with the precip dropping southeast and exiting
SE sections of the CWA no later than 06z.  Surface obs trends this
afternoon indicate that rain begins mixing with snow @ 36-37 and
is all snow at 34 or colder, and will use this for ptypes for the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Given warm
ground and the light intensity of the precip once it goes to all
snow, accumulations should continue to be very minor.

Other question for tonight is how much clearing will occur as the
storm exits and a narrow ridge of high pressure works into the
region. Over the last few hours have seen a wedge of clearing
wrapping around the surface low from S WI into NE IA. Some of this
clearing may reach our area, but there is also a lot of additional
low cloud to our north that will advect our way as well, so for
now have only gone with partial clearing during the late evening
and overnight hours.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Overall, going forecast heading into midweek still looks pretty
good, so this package will include generally minor adjustments and
tweaks to these trends.

Fast moving shortwave in northwest flow will zip into the region on
Monday, with WAA in advance of this feature rapidly shutting down
the CAA occuring overnight in the wake of today`s clipper.  12z
synoptic runs are suggesting a fairly strong N-S warm front will be
located near or just west of STL by late Monday afternoon and have
attempted to reflect this in max temp forecast, allowing highs to
rebound into the middle 50s over mid MO while keeping highs in the
30s over our S IL counties. This temp trend also seems to be
supported by the model RH progs which suggest a fairly thick mid
deck sweeping from W to E across the area in the zone of WAA during
the day, with the most clouds over our eastern counties during the
afternoon.  Some 12z guidance is even trying to kick out some
light QPF near and east of the Mississippi River in the zone of
strongest WAA. Have continued dry forecast for now, but will need
to keep an eye on this as there has been some very subtle suggestions
of this for several days.

The cold air advection behind Monday`s shortwave will try to dip
into the area Monday night, but with the longwave trof working into
the east coast during this time the main thrust of this cooler air
will be east of our area.  Model consensus of thermal profiles over
the region support highs in the 40s over most of the CWA by Tuesday
as weak surface ridge drops into the Mississippi Valley.

Warmup still appears to be on schedule for Wednesday, and main
question is how much of the warming will be able to translate to the
surface.  Forecast soundings are suggesting a large inversion, with
low level mixing up to 900-950mb.  Surface/low level winds...while
strong...are going to primarily be southerly rather than the
southwest direction that normally gives us our biggest warmups.
Also some doubt to how much cloud cover there will be, as GFS
suggests some mid clouds working into the area during the afternoon
while NAM suggests lots of sunshine.  Due to the above uncertainty
will keep highs about where they are now...ranging from the mid 40s
in our far eastern counties to near 60 in the far western tip of our
CWA.

(Thursday-Sunday)

Shortwave that works across the region Wednesday night and early
Thursday appears to be the first of several chunks of energy that
will be deepening long wave trof over the eastern U.S. heading into
the weekend, while cutoff low forms over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range solutions are in very broad agreement in developing
this split flow pattern, and in general this should mean temps
trending back towards more wintry levels after the mid-week warmup.
Will continue some slight chance PoPs on Wednesday night/Thursday
for eastern parts of the FA in advance of aforementioned shortwave,
with slight chance PoPs also continuing for parts of the FA on
Saturday and Saturday night as there is agreement in the medium
range models that WAA, a bit of shortwave energy, and a frontal
boundary will be passing through the area at that time.

Guidance is in reasonable agreement with their thermal profiles
through Saturday, but much like yesterday the operational ECMWF
continues to be deepest with the upper trof and much colder than the
GFS by the end of the period (it`s intesting to note that last
nights ECMWF-based MOS had over a 40 degree difference between the
warm and cold members for Sunday`s highs (58 vs 16).  For now, will
lean towards MOS averages for temp trends on Sunday...which will be
in the 30s.  This seems to be a reasonable compromise at this point,
with additional adjustments occurring as specific trends become less
muddled.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Lingering MVFR SC deck to persist across most of taf sites through
mid morning before scattering out. There is a hole in the mvfr
deck that has made its way into KUIN but should see that fill back
in by 08z Monday. Then next frontal boundary to move through and lower
cigs back down to mvfr for tafs along and east of Mississippi
river, while KCOU to remain vfr. As for winds, to persist from the
north, then back to the southwest to south ahead of next front.
Frontal boundary to move through KCOU by 22z Monday, KUIN by 23z
Monday and metro area by 01z Tuesday. It will be a dry frontal
passage with winds veering to the northwest.

Specifics for KSTL:
Lingering MVFR SC deck to persist across metro area through midday
before lifting and scattering out. Then next frontal boundary to
move through and lower cigs back down to mvfr by 01z Tuesday. As
for winds, to persist from the north, then back to the south ahead
of next front. Frontal passage will be a dry one with winds
veering to the northwest.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 260536
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Low cloud deck is eroding from west to east and will leave VFR for
the rest of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260002
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR/IFR ceilings are common across
the area over eastern KS and MO on the west side of low pressure
over southern IN. Clouds are expected to clear and winds diminish
from west to east over the next 12 hours as the low shifts east
and a sfc ridge over the High Plains moves into the area by 12z.
Some shallow fog may develop with light winds and a clearing sky
by 10z-12z and will need to watch trends. By 14z-15z sw winds will
increase with the approach of a sfc trough and may see some
moderate gusts (20 kts) late in the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260002
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: MVFR/IFR ceilings are common across
the area over eastern KS and MO on the west side of low pressure
over southern IN. Clouds are expected to clear and winds diminish
from west to east over the next 12 hours as the low shifts east
and a sfc ridge over the High Plains moves into the area by 12z.
Some shallow fog may develop with light winds and a clearing sky
by 10z-12z and will need to watch trends. By 14z-15z sw winds will
increase with the approach of a sfc trough and may see some
moderate gusts (20 kts) late in the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252348
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
548 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Precip over the CWA should be winding down over the next few hours
as upper level impulse works its way SE into the Ohio Valley.
Deformation zone that was so well defined this morning over IA and
n IL certainly falling apart as the afternoon progresses, and have
used a combination of regional radar and HRRR for PoP/weather
trends heading into the early evening. It would appear that the NW
edge of the precip (now all snow) will be near a KCOU-KILX line
by 00z, with the precip dropping southeast and exiting
SE sections of the CWA no later than 06z.  Surface obs trends this
afternoon indicate that rain begins mixing with snow @ 36-37 and
is all snow at 34 or colder, and will use this for ptypes for the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Given warm
ground and the light intensity of the precip once it goes to all
snow, accumulations should continue to be very minor.

Other question for tonight is how much clearing will occur as the
storm exits and a narrow ridge of high pressure works into the
region. Over the last few hours have seen a wedge of clearing
wrapping around the surface low from S WI into NE IA. Some of this
clearing may reach our area, but there is also a lot of additional
low cloud to our north that will advect our way as well, so for
now have only gone with partial clearing during the late evening
and overnight hours.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Overall, going forecast heading into midweek still looks pretty
good, so this package will include generally minor adjustments and
tweaks to these trends.

Fast moving shortwave in northwest flow will zip into the region on
Monday, with WAA in advance of this feature rapidly shutting down
the CAA occuring overnight in the wake of today`s clipper.  12z
synoptic runs are suggesting a fairly strong N-S warm front will be
located near or just west of STL by late Monday afternoon and have
attempted to reflect this in max temp forecast, allowing highs to
rebound into the middle 50s over mid MO while keeping highs in the
30s over our S IL counties. This temp trend also seems to be
supported by the model RH progs which suggest a fairly thick mid
deck sweeping from W to E across the area in the zone of WAA during
the day, with the most clouds over our eastern counties during the
afternoon.  Some 12z guidance is even trying to kick out some
light QPF near and east of the Mississippi River in the zone of
strongest WAA. Have continued dry forecast for now, but will need
to keep an eye on this as there has been some very subtle suggestions
of this for several days.

The cold air advection behind Monday`s shortwave will try to dip
into the area Monday night, but with the longwave trof working into
the east coast during this time the main thrust of this cooler air
will be east of our area.  Model consensus of thermal profiles over
the region support highs in the 40s over most of the CWA by Tuesday
as weak surface ridge drops into the Mississippi Valley.

Warmup still appears to be on schedule for Wednesday, and main
question is how much of the warming will be able to translate to the
surface.  Forecast soundings are suggesting a large inversion, with
low level mixing up to 900-950mb.  Surface/low level winds...while
strong...are going to primarily be southerly rather than the
southwest direction that normally gives us our biggest warmups.
Also some doubt to how much cloud cover there will be, as GFS
suggests some mid clouds working into the area during the afternoon
while NAM suggests lots of sunshine.  Due to the above uncertainty
will keep highs about where they are now...ranging from the mid 40s
in our far eastern counties to near 60 in the far western tip of our
CWA.

(Thursday-Sunday)

Shortwave that works across the region Wednesday night and early
Thursday appears to be the first of several chunks of energy that
will be deepening long wave trof over the eastern U.S. heading into
the weekend, while cutoff low forms over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range solutions are in very broad agreement in developing
this split flow pattern, and in general this should mean temps
trending back towards more wintry levels after the mid-week warmup.
Will continue some slight chance PoPs on Wednesday night/Thursday
for eastern parts of the FA in advance of aforementioned shortwave,
with slight chance PoPs also continuing for parts of the FA on
Saturday and Saturday night as there is agreement in the medium
range models that WAA, a bit of shortwave energy, and a frontal
boundary will be passing through the area at that time.

Guidance is in reasonable agreement with their thermal profiles
through Saturday, but much like yesterday the operational ECMWF
continues to be deepest with the upper trof and much colder than the
GFS by the end of the period (it`s intesting to note that last
nights ECMWF-based MOS had over a 40 degree difference between the
warm and cold members for Sunday`s highs (58 vs 16).  For now, will
lean towards MOS averages for temp trends on Sunday...which will be
in the 30s.  This seems to be a reasonable compromise at this point,
with additional adjustments occurring as specific trends become less
muddled.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Surface low to continue tracking east away from forecast area this
evening. Light rain/snow to taper off by 02z Monday. Otherwise,
dealing with MVFR cigs through mid morning on Monday before
lifting/scattering out to vfr. As for winds, to remain gusty
through early this evening from the north, then diminish. Winds
then to back to the southwest by mid morning on Monday ahead of
next cold front. Cold front will be a dry passage with some sc and
mid clouds associated with it. It will move through KUIN by 20z
Monday, KCOU by 21z Monday and the metro area by 01z Tuesday with
winds veering to the west to northwest.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low to continue tracking east away from forecast area this
evening. Light rain/snow to taper off by 01z Monday. Otherwise,
dealing with MVFR cigs through 17z Monday before lifting/scattering
out to vfr. As for winds, to remain gusty through early this
evening from the north, then diminish by 08z Monday. Winds then to back
to the southwest by 17z Monday ahead of next cold front. Cold
front will be a dry passage with some sc and mid clouds associated
with it. It will move through metro area by 01z Tuesday with winds
veering to the northwest.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 252348
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
548 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Precip over the CWA should be winding down over the next few hours
as upper level impulse works its way SE into the Ohio Valley.
Deformation zone that was so well defined this morning over IA and
n IL certainly falling apart as the afternoon progresses, and have
used a combination of regional radar and HRRR for PoP/weather
trends heading into the early evening. It would appear that the NW
edge of the precip (now all snow) will be near a KCOU-KILX line
by 00z, with the precip dropping southeast and exiting
SE sections of the CWA no later than 06z.  Surface obs trends this
afternoon indicate that rain begins mixing with snow @ 36-37 and
is all snow at 34 or colder, and will use this for ptypes for the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Given warm
ground and the light intensity of the precip once it goes to all
snow, accumulations should continue to be very minor.

Other question for tonight is how much clearing will occur as the
storm exits and a narrow ridge of high pressure works into the
region. Over the last few hours have seen a wedge of clearing
wrapping around the surface low from S WI into NE IA. Some of this
clearing may reach our area, but there is also a lot of additional
low cloud to our north that will advect our way as well, so for
now have only gone with partial clearing during the late evening
and overnight hours.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Overall, going forecast heading into midweek still looks pretty
good, so this package will include generally minor adjustments and
tweaks to these trends.

Fast moving shortwave in northwest flow will zip into the region on
Monday, with WAA in advance of this feature rapidly shutting down
the CAA occuring overnight in the wake of today`s clipper.  12z
synoptic runs are suggesting a fairly strong N-S warm front will be
located near or just west of STL by late Monday afternoon and have
attempted to reflect this in max temp forecast, allowing highs to
rebound into the middle 50s over mid MO while keeping highs in the
30s over our S IL counties. This temp trend also seems to be
supported by the model RH progs which suggest a fairly thick mid
deck sweeping from W to E across the area in the zone of WAA during
the day, with the most clouds over our eastern counties during the
afternoon.  Some 12z guidance is even trying to kick out some
light QPF near and east of the Mississippi River in the zone of
strongest WAA. Have continued dry forecast for now, but will need
to keep an eye on this as there has been some very subtle suggestions
of this for several days.

The cold air advection behind Monday`s shortwave will try to dip
into the area Monday night, but with the longwave trof working into
the east coast during this time the main thrust of this cooler air
will be east of our area.  Model consensus of thermal profiles over
the region support highs in the 40s over most of the CWA by Tuesday
as weak surface ridge drops into the Mississippi Valley.

Warmup still appears to be on schedule for Wednesday, and main
question is how much of the warming will be able to translate to the
surface.  Forecast soundings are suggesting a large inversion, with
low level mixing up to 900-950mb.  Surface/low level winds...while
strong...are going to primarily be southerly rather than the
southwest direction that normally gives us our biggest warmups.
Also some doubt to how much cloud cover there will be, as GFS
suggests some mid clouds working into the area during the afternoon
while NAM suggests lots of sunshine.  Due to the above uncertainty
will keep highs about where they are now...ranging from the mid 40s
in our far eastern counties to near 60 in the far western tip of our
CWA.

(Thursday-Sunday)

Shortwave that works across the region Wednesday night and early
Thursday appears to be the first of several chunks of energy that
will be deepening long wave trof over the eastern U.S. heading into
the weekend, while cutoff low forms over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range solutions are in very broad agreement in developing
this split flow pattern, and in general this should mean temps
trending back towards more wintry levels after the mid-week warmup.
Will continue some slight chance PoPs on Wednesday night/Thursday
for eastern parts of the FA in advance of aforementioned shortwave,
with slight chance PoPs also continuing for parts of the FA on
Saturday and Saturday night as there is agreement in the medium
range models that WAA, a bit of shortwave energy, and a frontal
boundary will be passing through the area at that time.

Guidance is in reasonable agreement with their thermal profiles
through Saturday, but much like yesterday the operational ECMWF
continues to be deepest with the upper trof and much colder than the
GFS by the end of the period (it`s intesting to note that last
nights ECMWF-based MOS had over a 40 degree difference between the
warm and cold members for Sunday`s highs (58 vs 16).  For now, will
lean towards MOS averages for temp trends on Sunday...which will be
in the 30s.  This seems to be a reasonable compromise at this point,
with additional adjustments occurring as specific trends become less
muddled.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Surface low to continue tracking east away from forecast area this
evening. Light rain/snow to taper off by 02z Monday. Otherwise,
dealing with MVFR cigs through mid morning on Monday before
lifting/scattering out to vfr. As for winds, to remain gusty
through early this evening from the north, then diminish. Winds
then to back to the southwest by mid morning on Monday ahead of
next cold front. Cold front will be a dry passage with some sc and
mid clouds associated with it. It will move through KUIN by 20z
Monday, KCOU by 21z Monday and the metro area by 01z Tuesday with
winds veering to the west to northwest.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low to continue tracking east away from forecast area this
evening. Light rain/snow to taper off by 01z Monday. Otherwise,
dealing with MVFR cigs through 17z Monday before lifting/scattering
out to vfr. As for winds, to remain gusty through early this
evening from the north, then diminish by 08z Monday. Winds then to back
to the southwest by 17z Monday ahead of next cold front. Cold
front will be a dry passage with some sc and mid clouds associated
with it. It will move through metro area by 01z Tuesday with winds
veering to the northwest.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 252332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Back edge of clouds will be slow to make it into wrn MO this evening,
but expect all ceilings across the KC terminals to rise above 2000 ft
over the next hour or two. Ceilings will remain below this level
through midnight or so for the IRK and DMO areas.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Back edge of clouds will be slow to make it into wrn MO this evening,
but expect all ceilings across the KC terminals to rise above 2000 ft
over the next hour or two. Ceilings will remain below this level
through midnight or so for the IRK and DMO areas.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252144
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Precip over the CWA should be winding down over the next few hours
as upper level impulse works its way SE into the Ohio Valley.
Deformation zone that was so well defined this morning over IA and
n IL certainly falling apart as the afternoon progresses, and have
used a combination of regional radar and HRRR for PoP/weather
trends heading into the early evening. It would appear that the NW
edge of the precip (now all snow) will be near a KCOU-KILX line
by 00z, with the precip dropping southeast and exiting
SE sections of the CWA no later than 06z.  Surface obs trends this
afternoon indicate that rain begins mixing with snow @ 36-37 and
is all snow at 34 or colder, and will use this for ptypes for the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Given warm
ground and the light intensity of the precip once it goes to all
snow, accumulations should continue to be very minor.

Other question for tonight is how much clearing will occur as the
storm exits and a narrow ridge of high pressure works into the
region. Over the last few hours have seen a wedge of clearing
wrapping around the surface low from S WI into NE IA. Some of this
clearing may reach our area, but there is also a lot of additional
low cloud to our north that will advect our way as well, so for
now have only gone with partial clearing during the late evening
and overnight hours.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Overall, going forecast heading into midweek still looks pretty
good, so this package will include generally minor adjustments and
tweaks to these trends.

Fast moving shortwave in northwest flow will zip into the region on
Monday, with WAA in advance of this feature rapidly shutting down
the CAA occuring overnight in the wake of today`s clipper.  12z
synoptic runs are suggesting a fairly strong N-S warm front will be
located near or just west of STL by late Monday afternoon and have
attempted to reflect this in max temp forecast, allowing highs to
rebound into the middle 50s over mid MO while keeping highs in the
30s over our S IL counties. This temp trend also seems to be
supported by the model RH progs which suggest a fairly thick mid
deck sweeping from W to E across the area in the zone of WAA during
the day, with the most clouds over our eastern counties during the
afternoon.  Some 12z guidance is even trying to kick out some
light QPF near and east of the Mississippi River in the zone of
strongest WAA. Have continued dry forecast for now, but will need
to keep an eye on this as there has been some very subtle suggestions
of this for several days.

The cold air advection behind Monday`s shortwave will try to dip
into the area Monday night, but with the longwave trof working into
the east coast during this time the main thrust of this cooler air
will be east of our area.  Model consensus of thermal profiles over
the region support highs in the 40s over most of the CWA by Tuesday
as weak surface ridge drops into the Mississippi Valley.

Warmup still appears to be on schedule for Wednesday, and main
question is how much of the warming will be able to translate to the
surface.  Forecast soundings are suggesting a large inversion, with
low level mixing up to 900-950mb.  Surface/low level winds...while
strong...are going to primarily be southerly rather than the
southwest direction that normally gives us our biggest warmups.
Also some doubt to how much cloud cover there will be, as GFS
suggests some mid clouds working into the area during the afternoon
while NAM suggests lots of sunshine.  Due to the above uncertainty
will keep highs about where they are now...ranging from the mid 40s
in our far eastern counties to near 60 in the far western tip of our
CWA.

(Thursday-Sunday)

Shortwave that works across the region Wednesday night and early
Thursday appears to be the first of several chunks of energy that
will be deepening long wave trof over the eastern U.S. heading into
the weekend, while cutoff low forms over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range solutions are in very broad agreement in developing
this split flow pattern, and in general this should mean temps
trending back towards more wintry levels after the mid-week warmup.
Will continue some slight chance PoPs on Wednesday night/Thursday
for eastern parts of the FA in advance of aforementioned shortwave,
with slight chance PoPs also continuing for parts of the FA on
Saturday and Saturday night as there is agreement in the medium
range models that WAA, a bit of shortwave energy, and a frontal
boundary will be passing through the area at that time.

Guidance is in reasonable agreement with their thermal profiles
through Saturday, but much like yesterday the operational ECMWF
continues to be deepest with the upper trof and much colder than the
GFS by the end of the period (it`s intesting to note that last
nights ECMWF-based MOS had over a 40 degree difference between the
warm and cold members for Sunday`s highs (58 vs 16).  For now, will
lean towards MOS averages for temp trends on Sunday...which will be
in the 30s.  This seems to be a reasonable compromise at this point,
with additional adjustments occurring as specific trends become less
muddled.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 252144
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Precip over the CWA should be winding down over the next few hours
as upper level impulse works its way SE into the Ohio Valley.
Deformation zone that was so well defined this morning over IA and
n IL certainly falling apart as the afternoon progresses, and have
used a combination of regional radar and HRRR for PoP/weather
trends heading into the early evening. It would appear that the NW
edge of the precip (now all snow) will be near a KCOU-KILX line
by 00z, with the precip dropping southeast and exiting
SE sections of the CWA no later than 06z.  Surface obs trends this
afternoon indicate that rain begins mixing with snow @ 36-37 and
is all snow at 34 or colder, and will use this for ptypes for the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Given warm
ground and the light intensity of the precip once it goes to all
snow, accumulations should continue to be very minor.

Other question for tonight is how much clearing will occur as the
storm exits and a narrow ridge of high pressure works into the
region. Over the last few hours have seen a wedge of clearing
wrapping around the surface low from S WI into NE IA. Some of this
clearing may reach our area, but there is also a lot of additional
low cloud to our north that will advect our way as well, so for
now have only gone with partial clearing during the late evening
and overnight hours.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Overall, going forecast heading into midweek still looks pretty
good, so this package will include generally minor adjustments and
tweaks to these trends.

Fast moving shortwave in northwest flow will zip into the region on
Monday, with WAA in advance of this feature rapidly shutting down
the CAA occuring overnight in the wake of today`s clipper.  12z
synoptic runs are suggesting a fairly strong N-S warm front will be
located near or just west of STL by late Monday afternoon and have
attempted to reflect this in max temp forecast, allowing highs to
rebound into the middle 50s over mid MO while keeping highs in the
30s over our S IL counties. This temp trend also seems to be
supported by the model RH progs which suggest a fairly thick mid
deck sweeping from W to E across the area in the zone of WAA during
the day, with the most clouds over our eastern counties during the
afternoon.  Some 12z guidance is even trying to kick out some
light QPF near and east of the Mississippi River in the zone of
strongest WAA. Have continued dry forecast for now, but will need
to keep an eye on this as there has been some very subtle suggestions
of this for several days.

The cold air advection behind Monday`s shortwave will try to dip
into the area Monday night, but with the longwave trof working into
the east coast during this time the main thrust of this cooler air
will be east of our area.  Model consensus of thermal profiles over
the region support highs in the 40s over most of the CWA by Tuesday
as weak surface ridge drops into the Mississippi Valley.

Warmup still appears to be on schedule for Wednesday, and main
question is how much of the warming will be able to translate to the
surface.  Forecast soundings are suggesting a large inversion, with
low level mixing up to 900-950mb.  Surface/low level winds...while
strong...are going to primarily be southerly rather than the
southwest direction that normally gives us our biggest warmups.
Also some doubt to how much cloud cover there will be, as GFS
suggests some mid clouds working into the area during the afternoon
while NAM suggests lots of sunshine.  Due to the above uncertainty
will keep highs about where they are now...ranging from the mid 40s
in our far eastern counties to near 60 in the far western tip of our
CWA.

(Thursday-Sunday)

Shortwave that works across the region Wednesday night and early
Thursday appears to be the first of several chunks of energy that
will be deepening long wave trof over the eastern U.S. heading into
the weekend, while cutoff low forms over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range solutions are in very broad agreement in developing
this split flow pattern, and in general this should mean temps
trending back towards more wintry levels after the mid-week warmup.
Will continue some slight chance PoPs on Wednesday night/Thursday
for eastern parts of the FA in advance of aforementioned shortwave,
with slight chance PoPs also continuing for parts of the FA on
Saturday and Saturday night as there is agreement in the medium
range models that WAA, a bit of shortwave energy, and a frontal
boundary will be passing through the area at that time.

Guidance is in reasonable agreement with their thermal profiles
through Saturday, but much like yesterday the operational ECMWF
continues to be deepest with the upper trof and much colder than the
GFS by the end of the period (it`s intesting to note that last
nights ECMWF-based MOS had over a 40 degree difference between the
warm and cold members for Sunday`s highs (58 vs 16).  For now, will
lean towards MOS averages for temp trends on Sunday...which will be
in the 30s.  This seems to be a reasonable compromise at this point,
with additional adjustments occurring as specific trends become less
muddled.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252144
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Precip over the CWA should be winding down over the next few hours
as upper level impulse works its way SE into the Ohio Valley.
Deformation zone that was so well defined this morning over IA and
n IL certainly falling apart as the afternoon progresses, and have
used a combination of regional radar and HRRR for PoP/weather
trends heading into the early evening. It would appear that the NW
edge of the precip (now all snow) will be near a KCOU-KILX line
by 00z, with the precip dropping southeast and exiting
SE sections of the CWA no later than 06z.  Surface obs trends this
afternoon indicate that rain begins mixing with snow @ 36-37 and
is all snow at 34 or colder, and will use this for ptypes for the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Given warm
ground and the light intensity of the precip once it goes to all
snow, accumulations should continue to be very minor.

Other question for tonight is how much clearing will occur as the
storm exits and a narrow ridge of high pressure works into the
region. Over the last few hours have seen a wedge of clearing
wrapping around the surface low from S WI into NE IA. Some of this
clearing may reach our area, but there is also a lot of additional
low cloud to our north that will advect our way as well, so for
now have only gone with partial clearing during the late evening
and overnight hours.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Overall, going forecast heading into midweek still looks pretty
good, so this package will include generally minor adjustments and
tweaks to these trends.

Fast moving shortwave in northwest flow will zip into the region on
Monday, with WAA in advance of this feature rapidly shutting down
the CAA occuring overnight in the wake of today`s clipper.  12z
synoptic runs are suggesting a fairly strong N-S warm front will be
located near or just west of STL by late Monday afternoon and have
attempted to reflect this in max temp forecast, allowing highs to
rebound into the middle 50s over mid MO while keeping highs in the
30s over our S IL counties. This temp trend also seems to be
supported by the model RH progs which suggest a fairly thick mid
deck sweeping from W to E across the area in the zone of WAA during
the day, with the most clouds over our eastern counties during the
afternoon.  Some 12z guidance is even trying to kick out some
light QPF near and east of the Mississippi River in the zone of
strongest WAA. Have continued dry forecast for now, but will need
to keep an eye on this as there has been some very subtle suggestions
of this for several days.

The cold air advection behind Monday`s shortwave will try to dip
into the area Monday night, but with the longwave trof working into
the east coast during this time the main thrust of this cooler air
will be east of our area.  Model consensus of thermal profiles over
the region support highs in the 40s over most of the CWA by Tuesday
as weak surface ridge drops into the Mississippi Valley.

Warmup still appears to be on schedule for Wednesday, and main
question is how much of the warming will be able to translate to the
surface.  Forecast soundings are suggesting a large inversion, with
low level mixing up to 900-950mb.  Surface/low level winds...while
strong...are going to primarily be southerly rather than the
southwest direction that normally gives us our biggest warmups.
Also some doubt to how much cloud cover there will be, as GFS
suggests some mid clouds working into the area during the afternoon
while NAM suggests lots of sunshine.  Due to the above uncertainty
will keep highs about where they are now...ranging from the mid 40s
in our far eastern counties to near 60 in the far western tip of our
CWA.

(Thursday-Sunday)

Shortwave that works across the region Wednesday night and early
Thursday appears to be the first of several chunks of energy that
will be deepening long wave trof over the eastern U.S. heading into
the weekend, while cutoff low forms over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range solutions are in very broad agreement in developing
this split flow pattern, and in general this should mean temps
trending back towards more wintry levels after the mid-week warmup.
Will continue some slight chance PoPs on Wednesday night/Thursday
for eastern parts of the FA in advance of aforementioned shortwave,
with slight chance PoPs also continuing for parts of the FA on
Saturday and Saturday night as there is agreement in the medium
range models that WAA, a bit of shortwave energy, and a frontal
boundary will be passing through the area at that time.

Guidance is in reasonable agreement with their thermal profiles
through Saturday, but much like yesterday the operational ECMWF
continues to be deepest with the upper trof and much colder than the
GFS by the end of the period (it`s intesting to note that last
nights ECMWF-based MOS had over a 40 degree difference between the
warm and cold members for Sunday`s highs (58 vs 16).  For now, will
lean towards MOS averages for temp trends on Sunday...which will be
in the 30s.  This seems to be a reasonable compromise at this point,
with additional adjustments occurring as specific trends become less
muddled.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252144
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
344 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Precip over the CWA should be winding down over the next few hours
as upper level impulse works its way SE into the Ohio Valley.
Deformation zone that was so well defined this morning over IA and
n IL certainly falling apart as the afternoon progresses, and have
used a combination of regional radar and HRRR for PoP/weather
trends heading into the early evening. It would appear that the NW
edge of the precip (now all snow) will be near a KCOU-KILX line
by 00z, with the precip dropping southeast and exiting
SE sections of the CWA no later than 06z.  Surface obs trends this
afternoon indicate that rain begins mixing with snow @ 36-37 and
is all snow at 34 or colder, and will use this for ptypes for the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Given warm
ground and the light intensity of the precip once it goes to all
snow, accumulations should continue to be very minor.

Other question for tonight is how much clearing will occur as the
storm exits and a narrow ridge of high pressure works into the
region. Over the last few hours have seen a wedge of clearing
wrapping around the surface low from S WI into NE IA. Some of this
clearing may reach our area, but there is also a lot of additional
low cloud to our north that will advect our way as well, so for
now have only gone with partial clearing during the late evening
and overnight hours.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Overall, going forecast heading into midweek still looks pretty
good, so this package will include generally minor adjustments and
tweaks to these trends.

Fast moving shortwave in northwest flow will zip into the region on
Monday, with WAA in advance of this feature rapidly shutting down
the CAA occuring overnight in the wake of today`s clipper.  12z
synoptic runs are suggesting a fairly strong N-S warm front will be
located near or just west of STL by late Monday afternoon and have
attempted to reflect this in max temp forecast, allowing highs to
rebound into the middle 50s over mid MO while keeping highs in the
30s over our S IL counties. This temp trend also seems to be
supported by the model RH progs which suggest a fairly thick mid
deck sweeping from W to E across the area in the zone of WAA during
the day, with the most clouds over our eastern counties during the
afternoon.  Some 12z guidance is even trying to kick out some
light QPF near and east of the Mississippi River in the zone of
strongest WAA. Have continued dry forecast for now, but will need
to keep an eye on this as there has been some very subtle suggestions
of this for several days.

The cold air advection behind Monday`s shortwave will try to dip
into the area Monday night, but with the longwave trof working into
the east coast during this time the main thrust of this cooler air
will be east of our area.  Model consensus of thermal profiles over
the region support highs in the 40s over most of the CWA by Tuesday
as weak surface ridge drops into the Mississippi Valley.

Warmup still appears to be on schedule for Wednesday, and main
question is how much of the warming will be able to translate to the
surface.  Forecast soundings are suggesting a large inversion, with
low level mixing up to 900-950mb.  Surface/low level winds...while
strong...are going to primarily be southerly rather than the
southwest direction that normally gives us our biggest warmups.
Also some doubt to how much cloud cover there will be, as GFS
suggests some mid clouds working into the area during the afternoon
while NAM suggests lots of sunshine.  Due to the above uncertainty
will keep highs about where they are now...ranging from the mid 40s
in our far eastern counties to near 60 in the far western tip of our
CWA.

(Thursday-Sunday)

Shortwave that works across the region Wednesday night and early
Thursday appears to be the first of several chunks of energy that
will be deepening long wave trof over the eastern U.S. heading into
the weekend, while cutoff low forms over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range solutions are in very broad agreement in developing
this split flow pattern, and in general this should mean temps
trending back towards more wintry levels after the mid-week warmup.
Will continue some slight chance PoPs on Wednesday night/Thursday
for eastern parts of the FA in advance of aforementioned shortwave,
with slight chance PoPs also continuing for parts of the FA on
Saturday and Saturday night as there is agreement in the medium
range models that WAA, a bit of shortwave energy, and a frontal
boundary will be passing through the area at that time.

Guidance is in reasonable agreement with their thermal profiles
through Saturday, but much like yesterday the operational ECMWF
continues to be deepest with the upper trof and much colder than the
GFS by the end of the period (it`s intesting to note that last
nights ECMWF-based MOS had over a 40 degree difference between the
warm and cold members for Sunday`s highs (58 vs 16).  For now, will
lean towards MOS averages for temp trends on Sunday...which will be
in the 30s.  This seems to be a reasonable compromise at this point,
with additional adjustments occurring as specific trends become less
muddled.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252051
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252051
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252051
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252051
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The forecast through the next 7 days looks to be relatively quiet
weather-wise, with above normal temperatures the main story.

Tonight: The bulk of the light precipitation is beginning to swing
out of the CWA, and expect the forecast area to be precip-free by
sunset tonight. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the cloud
cover upstream over Nebraska and Iowa, and with drier air advecting
in behind the departing upper wave, should see a gradual decrease in
cloud cover overnight. Likewise, a surface ridge will slide into the
area tonight, providing an abrupt end to the current gusty northerly
winds, with speeds becoming fairly light. With light winds, periods
of clear skies, and moistened grounds from precipitation today, it`s
not unreasonable to believe shallow patchy fog may develop between
09-13Z. Best chance for patchy fog should be across the southwestern
half of the CWA where mostly clear skies may be most prevalent.

Monday through Wednesday: The cooler weather today will be
short-lived as the upper pattern remains highly amplified, with a
large ridge over the Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm
H85 temperatures on the order of 10-13C will overspread much of the
Central Plains Monday through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high
temperatures well above seasonal levels for the region. Monday and
Wednesday will be the warmest days thanks to deeper mixing to 925mb
and westerly to southerly surface winds. Tuesday should be a few
degrees cooler as surface high pressure slides southeast across the
region and results in light easterly winds and shallower mixing. The
warmest day for the forecast area will occur on Wednesday ahead of
the next cold front as the upper pattern begins to break down, with
highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Extended: An upper disturbance, similar to today`s system, will
track southeastward, but with a track further northeast on Thursday.
Therefore, any appreciable weather should remain just to the
northeast of the area. Cooler weather will follow behind the system,
with readings near or slightly above seasonal levels Thursday into
the weekend. Models agree on an upper disturbance meandering over
the Desert Southwest over the weekend, but struggle with consistency
over handling the upper pattern over the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. The solutions greatly vary on the degree of colder
weather to reach the CWA by the weekend, and have taken a
middle-ground approach at this stage. Overall, precipitation chances
look low through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251836
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1236 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1217 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Strengthening shortwave over Missouri will continue moving east-
southeast this afternoon. The associated low level circulation
which is currently east-southeast of the STL Metro will likewise
move east into Kentucky by 00Z. PoPs earlier today were a bear to
figure out as radar was of little use since we were shooting over
much of the precip. Regardless, it looks like much of the area
received at least a little bit of rain between 12Z and 18Z. Precipitation
is starting to show up better now as low level baroclinicity and
frontogenesis north of the I-70 corridor enhances the broad scale
synoptic lift generated by the shortwave. Therefore think going
likely to categorical PoPs this afternoon are still valid.
Rain/snow transition also looks good for the moment so will only
make minor tweaks as necessary through the afternoon.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Satellite data at 08z indicates the heart of a strong clipper system
over west-central IA and is chugging southeastward towards our
region at a good rate.  It is also close to forming a closed
circulation as well.  Increasing and solid areas of pcpn exist
around this heart of the system over IA with an arm of patches of
pcpn extending southward thru our region currently.  All pcpn is
currently rain over our region with surface temps in the 40s.  An
initial cold front extends thru northwest MO and southeast KS but
the CAA associated with it is weak.  A stronger shot of cold air is
pushing thru the Mid-MO river valley in eastern NE and western IA.

There is finally excellent model consensus on the structure and
track of this system, with the GFS the big winner on depicting a
closed circulation and farther SW track first with the rest getting
on board:  the closed upper level system will track to close to the
STL metro area by midday and then into western KY by nightfall.  Two
shots of pcpn will be the main players here, with the first out
ahead of the system from STL metro to southwest MO currently
associated with strong vorticity and will shift a bit to the
southeast thru midday.  The second main area of pcpn will be the
deformation zone itself currently in IA, and this will be dragged
bodily southward as the system digs.  The deformation zone is
expected to impact the entire forecast area at some point, entering
the northern CWA in northern MO-central IL by late morning, and then
not exiting areas to the south and east of STL metro until evening.

Thanks to sufficient cold air existing aloft, pcpn-types will
largely be driven by surface temps.  However, the more significant
cold air push is expected to be delayed until shortly after the
arrival of the deformation zone pcpn and will also be accompanied by
strong gusty NW winds.  So pcpn-types look to be all rain at all
locations thru 18z, with a gradual mix in of snow for northeast MO
and west-central IL during early afternoon and making a run towards
I-70 by nightfall.  This trend to then continue into the evening for
STL metro and areas to the south and east.  All-in-all, the
appearance of the snow will probably not amount to much more than an
hour or two, with a bit more for areas around UIN and into central
IL.  Any snow accums will likely be confined to the UIN area and
areas heading into central IL but just a dusting is expected.

The push of the cold air will need to be watched, however, with an
earlier arrival and/or deeper/slower system will lead to increased
snow amounts.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

NW flow aloft will continue to prevail thru Tuesday night with quiet
wx expected.  Temps will recover to above seasonable levels in MO
and close to seasonable levels in IL.

A shortwave disturbance is still on track for Wednesday night and
have maintained mentionable PoPs for rain.  If the surface low
reflection can drop more to the south, will need to boost them
significantly.  Slight chances were also maintained for Saturday,
but that is looking less of a possibility due to the northern
influences dominating more--keeping a strong southern storm isolated
well to the southwest.

Mild temps areawide can be expected Wednesday, and perhaps into
Thursday depending on the frontal timing, but it looks like a cooler
period is then in store for next weekend.  The EC and GFS have split
on how to handle an Arctic boundary, with the GFS backing way off.
So for now, a return to seasonable temps for next weekend the best
bet until a better consensus is achieved.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251836
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1236 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1217 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Strengthening shortwave over Missouri will continue moving east-
southeast this afternoon. The associated low level circulation
which is currently east-southeast of the STL Metro will likewise
move east into Kentucky by 00Z. PoPs earlier today were a bear to
figure out as radar was of little use since we were shooting over
much of the precip. Regardless, it looks like much of the area
received at least a little bit of rain between 12Z and 18Z. Precipitation
is starting to show up better now as low level baroclinicity and
frontogenesis north of the I-70 corridor enhances the broad scale
synoptic lift generated by the shortwave. Therefore think going
likely to categorical PoPs this afternoon are still valid.
Rain/snow transition also looks good for the moment so will only
make minor tweaks as necessary through the afternoon.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Satellite data at 08z indicates the heart of a strong clipper system
over west-central IA and is chugging southeastward towards our
region at a good rate.  It is also close to forming a closed
circulation as well.  Increasing and solid areas of pcpn exist
around this heart of the system over IA with an arm of patches of
pcpn extending southward thru our region currently.  All pcpn is
currently rain over our region with surface temps in the 40s.  An
initial cold front extends thru northwest MO and southeast KS but
the CAA associated with it is weak.  A stronger shot of cold air is
pushing thru the Mid-MO river valley in eastern NE and western IA.

There is finally excellent model consensus on the structure and
track of this system, with the GFS the big winner on depicting a
closed circulation and farther SW track first with the rest getting
on board:  the closed upper level system will track to close to the
STL metro area by midday and then into western KY by nightfall.  Two
shots of pcpn will be the main players here, with the first out
ahead of the system from STL metro to southwest MO currently
associated with strong vorticity and will shift a bit to the
southeast thru midday.  The second main area of pcpn will be the
deformation zone itself currently in IA, and this will be dragged
bodily southward as the system digs.  The deformation zone is
expected to impact the entire forecast area at some point, entering
the northern CWA in northern MO-central IL by late morning, and then
not exiting areas to the south and east of STL metro until evening.

Thanks to sufficient cold air existing aloft, pcpn-types will
largely be driven by surface temps.  However, the more significant
cold air push is expected to be delayed until shortly after the
arrival of the deformation zone pcpn and will also be accompanied by
strong gusty NW winds.  So pcpn-types look to be all rain at all
locations thru 18z, with a gradual mix in of snow for northeast MO
and west-central IL during early afternoon and making a run towards
I-70 by nightfall.  This trend to then continue into the evening for
STL metro and areas to the south and east.  All-in-all, the
appearance of the snow will probably not amount to much more than an
hour or two, with a bit more for areas around UIN and into central
IL.  Any snow accums will likely be confined to the UIN area and
areas heading into central IL but just a dusting is expected.

The push of the cold air will need to be watched, however, with an
earlier arrival and/or deeper/slower system will lead to increased
snow amounts.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

NW flow aloft will continue to prevail thru Tuesday night with quiet
wx expected.  Temps will recover to above seasonable levels in MO
and close to seasonable levels in IL.

A shortwave disturbance is still on track for Wednesday night and
have maintained mentionable PoPs for rain.  If the surface low
reflection can drop more to the south, will need to boost them
significantly.  Slight chances were also maintained for Saturday,
but that is looking less of a possibility due to the northern
influences dominating more--keeping a strong southern storm isolated
well to the southwest.

Mild temps areawide can be expected Wednesday, and perhaps into
Thursday depending on the frontal timing, but it looks like a cooler
period is then in store for next weekend.  The EC and GFS have split
on how to handle an Arctic boundary, with the GFS backing way off.
So for now, a return to seasonable temps for next weekend the best
bet until a better consensus is achieved.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251836
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1236 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1217 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Strengthening shortwave over Missouri will continue moving east-
southeast this afternoon. The associated low level circulation
which is currently east-southeast of the STL Metro will likewise
move east into Kentucky by 00Z. PoPs earlier today were a bear to
figure out as radar was of little use since we were shooting over
much of the precip. Regardless, it looks like much of the area
received at least a little bit of rain between 12Z and 18Z. Precipitation
is starting to show up better now as low level baroclinicity and
frontogenesis north of the I-70 corridor enhances the broad scale
synoptic lift generated by the shortwave. Therefore think going
likely to categorical PoPs this afternoon are still valid.
Rain/snow transition also looks good for the moment so will only
make minor tweaks as necessary through the afternoon.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Satellite data at 08z indicates the heart of a strong clipper system
over west-central IA and is chugging southeastward towards our
region at a good rate.  It is also close to forming a closed
circulation as well.  Increasing and solid areas of pcpn exist
around this heart of the system over IA with an arm of patches of
pcpn extending southward thru our region currently.  All pcpn is
currently rain over our region with surface temps in the 40s.  An
initial cold front extends thru northwest MO and southeast KS but
the CAA associated with it is weak.  A stronger shot of cold air is
pushing thru the Mid-MO river valley in eastern NE and western IA.

There is finally excellent model consensus on the structure and
track of this system, with the GFS the big winner on depicting a
closed circulation and farther SW track first with the rest getting
on board:  the closed upper level system will track to close to the
STL metro area by midday and then into western KY by nightfall.  Two
shots of pcpn will be the main players here, with the first out
ahead of the system from STL metro to southwest MO currently
associated with strong vorticity and will shift a bit to the
southeast thru midday.  The second main area of pcpn will be the
deformation zone itself currently in IA, and this will be dragged
bodily southward as the system digs.  The deformation zone is
expected to impact the entire forecast area at some point, entering
the northern CWA in northern MO-central IL by late morning, and then
not exiting areas to the south and east of STL metro until evening.

Thanks to sufficient cold air existing aloft, pcpn-types will
largely be driven by surface temps.  However, the more significant
cold air push is expected to be delayed until shortly after the
arrival of the deformation zone pcpn and will also be accompanied by
strong gusty NW winds.  So pcpn-types look to be all rain at all
locations thru 18z, with a gradual mix in of snow for northeast MO
and west-central IL during early afternoon and making a run towards
I-70 by nightfall.  This trend to then continue into the evening for
STL metro and areas to the south and east.  All-in-all, the
appearance of the snow will probably not amount to much more than an
hour or two, with a bit more for areas around UIN and into central
IL.  Any snow accums will likely be confined to the UIN area and
areas heading into central IL but just a dusting is expected.

The push of the cold air will need to be watched, however, with an
earlier arrival and/or deeper/slower system will lead to increased
snow amounts.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

NW flow aloft will continue to prevail thru Tuesday night with quiet
wx expected.  Temps will recover to above seasonable levels in MO
and close to seasonable levels in IL.

A shortwave disturbance is still on track for Wednesday night and
have maintained mentionable PoPs for rain.  If the surface low
reflection can drop more to the south, will need to boost them
significantly.  Slight chances were also maintained for Saturday,
but that is looking less of a possibility due to the northern
influences dominating more--keeping a strong southern storm isolated
well to the southwest.

Mild temps areawide can be expected Wednesday, and perhaps into
Thursday depending on the frontal timing, but it looks like a cooler
period is then in store for next weekend.  The EC and GFS have split
on how to handle an Arctic boundary, with the GFS backing way off.
So for now, a return to seasonable temps for next weekend the best
bet until a better consensus is achieved.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251836
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1236 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1217 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Strengthening shortwave over Missouri will continue moving east-
southeast this afternoon. The associated low level circulation
which is currently east-southeast of the STL Metro will likewise
move east into Kentucky by 00Z. PoPs earlier today were a bear to
figure out as radar was of little use since we were shooting over
much of the precip. Regardless, it looks like much of the area
received at least a little bit of rain between 12Z and 18Z. Precipitation
is starting to show up better now as low level baroclinicity and
frontogenesis north of the I-70 corridor enhances the broad scale
synoptic lift generated by the shortwave. Therefore think going
likely to categorical PoPs this afternoon are still valid.
Rain/snow transition also looks good for the moment so will only
make minor tweaks as necessary through the afternoon.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Satellite data at 08z indicates the heart of a strong clipper system
over west-central IA and is chugging southeastward towards our
region at a good rate.  It is also close to forming a closed
circulation as well.  Increasing and solid areas of pcpn exist
around this heart of the system over IA with an arm of patches of
pcpn extending southward thru our region currently.  All pcpn is
currently rain over our region with surface temps in the 40s.  An
initial cold front extends thru northwest MO and southeast KS but
the CAA associated with it is weak.  A stronger shot of cold air is
pushing thru the Mid-MO river valley in eastern NE and western IA.

There is finally excellent model consensus on the structure and
track of this system, with the GFS the big winner on depicting a
closed circulation and farther SW track first with the rest getting
on board:  the closed upper level system will track to close to the
STL metro area by midday and then into western KY by nightfall.  Two
shots of pcpn will be the main players here, with the first out
ahead of the system from STL metro to southwest MO currently
associated with strong vorticity and will shift a bit to the
southeast thru midday.  The second main area of pcpn will be the
deformation zone itself currently in IA, and this will be dragged
bodily southward as the system digs.  The deformation zone is
expected to impact the entire forecast area at some point, entering
the northern CWA in northern MO-central IL by late morning, and then
not exiting areas to the south and east of STL metro until evening.

Thanks to sufficient cold air existing aloft, pcpn-types will
largely be driven by surface temps.  However, the more significant
cold air push is expected to be delayed until shortly after the
arrival of the deformation zone pcpn and will also be accompanied by
strong gusty NW winds.  So pcpn-types look to be all rain at all
locations thru 18z, with a gradual mix in of snow for northeast MO
and west-central IL during early afternoon and making a run towards
I-70 by nightfall.  This trend to then continue into the evening for
STL metro and areas to the south and east.  All-in-all, the
appearance of the snow will probably not amount to much more than an
hour or two, with a bit more for areas around UIN and into central
IL.  Any snow accums will likely be confined to the UIN area and
areas heading into central IL but just a dusting is expected.

The push of the cold air will need to be watched, however, with an
earlier arrival and/or deeper/slower system will lead to increased
snow amounts.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

NW flow aloft will continue to prevail thru Tuesday night with quiet
wx expected.  Temps will recover to above seasonable levels in MO
and close to seasonable levels in IL.

A shortwave disturbance is still on track for Wednesday night and
have maintained mentionable PoPs for rain.  If the surface low
reflection can drop more to the south, will need to boost them
significantly.  Slight chances were also maintained for Saturday,
but that is looking less of a possibility due to the northern
influences dominating more--keeping a strong southern storm isolated
well to the southwest.

Mild temps areawide can be expected Wednesday, and perhaps into
Thursday depending on the frontal timing, but it looks like a cooler
period is then in store for next weekend.  The EC and GFS have split
on how to handle an Arctic boundary, with the GFS backing way off.
So for now, a return to seasonable temps for next weekend the best
bet until a better consensus is achieved.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PoPs have been increased throughout the morning to account for
pockets of light rain spreading southeast across the central and
eastern Ozarks. This light precipitation has been occurring behind
a cold front which trails a surface low pressure centered across
southern Illinois. Brisk and gusty northwest winds have also
developed behind the front...with a few gusts pushing 40 mph
across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

Heading into this afternoon, that area of light rain will spread
into the remainder of the eastern Ozarks. We will also see an
area of more organized precipitation wrap around that low into the
central and eastern Ozarks. While most of this will be rain,
temperatures profiles in the lower atmosphere will be very close
to the rain/snow threshold. We do think that some wet snowflakes
will be possible this afternoon both along the higher terrain of
the Ozark Plateau, and then late this afternoon across central
Missouri. Even though temperatures will fall into the 30s this
afternoon, they will remain too warm to support any accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level trough is currently diving south across the central
Plains early this morning. Some scattered sprinkles or light rain
is occurring across the area ahead of the trough. The trough will
push to the southeast through the area today and light rain or
flurries will occur at times. Will not be an all day rain but
there could be off and on light rain and sprinkles through much of
the day especially across the eastern Ozarks. The best coverage in
this light rain will occur this morning across the eastern
Ozarks. This afternoon there will still be the light rain or
sprinkles occurring at times, the better chances will remain across
the eastern Ozarks.

As the upper level trough passes south through the area height
falls will quickly cool the mid levels of the atmosphere today,
but low level temperatures at the surface and just above the ground
will remain warm enough for all rain through much of the day. A
cold front will drop south through the area today and temperatures
will fall this afternoon especially across central Missouri, which
may allow a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain late this
afternoon into early this evening. This will be very light
snow/flurries mixing in with rain and with surface temperatures
above freezing no accumulations will occur. The precipitation
will come to an end by the mid evening hours.

Cloudy skies and the passage of the cold front late this morning
will keep temperatures cooler today. Most locations highs for the
entire day will occur this morning, with temperatures holding
steady or slightly or falling this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level ridge will then build east across the Plains and
over the region by Wednesday. This will allow a nice warm up with
highs warming into the 50s and 60s and each day through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push the ridge to the east and usher
in cooler conditions late this week into the weekend as highs only
warm into the 40s as a second upper level trough tracks through
the region. Moisture will be limited with this system but some
light rain or sprinkles may be possible on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 251803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PoPs have been increased throughout the morning to account for
pockets of light rain spreading southeast across the central and
eastern Ozarks. This light precipitation has been occurring behind
a cold front which trails a surface low pressure centered across
southern Illinois. Brisk and gusty northwest winds have also
developed behind the front...with a few gusts pushing 40 mph
across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

Heading into this afternoon, that area of light rain will spread
into the remainder of the eastern Ozarks. We will also see an
area of more organized precipitation wrap around that low into the
central and eastern Ozarks. While most of this will be rain,
temperatures profiles in the lower atmosphere will be very close
to the rain/snow threshold. We do think that some wet snowflakes
will be possible this afternoon both along the higher terrain of
the Ozark Plateau, and then late this afternoon across central
Missouri. Even though temperatures will fall into the 30s this
afternoon, they will remain too warm to support any accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level trough is currently diving south across the central
Plains early this morning. Some scattered sprinkles or light rain
is occurring across the area ahead of the trough. The trough will
push to the southeast through the area today and light rain or
flurries will occur at times. Will not be an all day rain but
there could be off and on light rain and sprinkles through much of
the day especially across the eastern Ozarks. The best coverage in
this light rain will occur this morning across the eastern
Ozarks. This afternoon there will still be the light rain or
sprinkles occurring at times, the better chances will remain across
the eastern Ozarks.

As the upper level trough passes south through the area height
falls will quickly cool the mid levels of the atmosphere today,
but low level temperatures at the surface and just above the ground
will remain warm enough for all rain through much of the day. A
cold front will drop south through the area today and temperatures
will fall this afternoon especially across central Missouri, which
may allow a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain late this
afternoon into early this evening. This will be very light
snow/flurries mixing in with rain and with surface temperatures
above freezing no accumulations will occur. The precipitation
will come to an end by the mid evening hours.

Cloudy skies and the passage of the cold front late this morning
will keep temperatures cooler today. Most locations highs for the
entire day will occur this morning, with temperatures holding
steady or slightly or falling this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level ridge will then build east across the Plains and
over the region by Wednesday. This will allow a nice warm up with
highs warming into the 50s and 60s and each day through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push the ridge to the east and usher
in cooler conditions late this week into the weekend as highs only
warm into the 40s as a second upper level trough tracks through
the region. Moisture will be limited with this system but some
light rain or sprinkles may be possible on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 251803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PoPs have been increased throughout the morning to account for
pockets of light rain spreading southeast across the central and
eastern Ozarks. This light precipitation has been occurring behind
a cold front which trails a surface low pressure centered across
southern Illinois. Brisk and gusty northwest winds have also
developed behind the front...with a few gusts pushing 40 mph
across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

Heading into this afternoon, that area of light rain will spread
into the remainder of the eastern Ozarks. We will also see an
area of more organized precipitation wrap around that low into the
central and eastern Ozarks. While most of this will be rain,
temperatures profiles in the lower atmosphere will be very close
to the rain/snow threshold. We do think that some wet snowflakes
will be possible this afternoon both along the higher terrain of
the Ozark Plateau, and then late this afternoon across central
Missouri. Even though temperatures will fall into the 30s this
afternoon, they will remain too warm to support any accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level trough is currently diving south across the central
Plains early this morning. Some scattered sprinkles or light rain
is occurring across the area ahead of the trough. The trough will
push to the southeast through the area today and light rain or
flurries will occur at times. Will not be an all day rain but
there could be off and on light rain and sprinkles through much of
the day especially across the eastern Ozarks. The best coverage in
this light rain will occur this morning across the eastern
Ozarks. This afternoon there will still be the light rain or
sprinkles occurring at times, the better chances will remain across
the eastern Ozarks.

As the upper level trough passes south through the area height
falls will quickly cool the mid levels of the atmosphere today,
but low level temperatures at the surface and just above the ground
will remain warm enough for all rain through much of the day. A
cold front will drop south through the area today and temperatures
will fall this afternoon especially across central Missouri, which
may allow a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain late this
afternoon into early this evening. This will be very light
snow/flurries mixing in with rain and with surface temperatures
above freezing no accumulations will occur. The precipitation
will come to an end by the mid evening hours.

Cloudy skies and the passage of the cold front late this morning
will keep temperatures cooler today. Most locations highs for the
entire day will occur this morning, with temperatures holding
steady or slightly or falling this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level ridge will then build east across the Plains and
over the region by Wednesday. This will allow a nice warm up with
highs warming into the 50s and 60s and each day through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push the ridge to the east and usher
in cooler conditions late this week into the weekend as highs only
warm into the 40s as a second upper level trough tracks through
the region. Moisture will be limited with this system but some
light rain or sprinkles may be possible on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 251803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PoPs have been increased throughout the morning to account for
pockets of light rain spreading southeast across the central and
eastern Ozarks. This light precipitation has been occurring behind
a cold front which trails a surface low pressure centered across
southern Illinois. Brisk and gusty northwest winds have also
developed behind the front...with a few gusts pushing 40 mph
across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

Heading into this afternoon, that area of light rain will spread
into the remainder of the eastern Ozarks. We will also see an
area of more organized precipitation wrap around that low into the
central and eastern Ozarks. While most of this will be rain,
temperatures profiles in the lower atmosphere will be very close
to the rain/snow threshold. We do think that some wet snowflakes
will be possible this afternoon both along the higher terrain of
the Ozark Plateau, and then late this afternoon across central
Missouri. Even though temperatures will fall into the 30s this
afternoon, they will remain too warm to support any accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level trough is currently diving south across the central
Plains early this morning. Some scattered sprinkles or light rain
is occurring across the area ahead of the trough. The trough will
push to the southeast through the area today and light rain or
flurries will occur at times. Will not be an all day rain but
there could be off and on light rain and sprinkles through much of
the day especially across the eastern Ozarks. The best coverage in
this light rain will occur this morning across the eastern
Ozarks. This afternoon there will still be the light rain or
sprinkles occurring at times, the better chances will remain across
the eastern Ozarks.

As the upper level trough passes south through the area height
falls will quickly cool the mid levels of the atmosphere today,
but low level temperatures at the surface and just above the ground
will remain warm enough for all rain through much of the day. A
cold front will drop south through the area today and temperatures
will fall this afternoon especially across central Missouri, which
may allow a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain late this
afternoon into early this evening. This will be very light
snow/flurries mixing in with rain and with surface temperatures
above freezing no accumulations will occur. The precipitation
will come to an end by the mid evening hours.

Cloudy skies and the passage of the cold front late this morning
will keep temperatures cooler today. Most locations highs for the
entire day will occur this morning, with temperatures holding
steady or slightly or falling this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level ridge will then build east across the Plains and
over the region by Wednesday. This will allow a nice warm up with
highs warming into the 50s and 60s and each day through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push the ridge to the east and usher
in cooler conditions late this week into the weekend as highs only
warm into the 40s as a second upper level trough tracks through
the region. Moisture will be limited with this system but some
light rain or sprinkles may be possible on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 251758
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Satellite data at 08z indicates the heart of a strong clipper system
over west-central IA and is chugging southeastward towards our
region at a good rate.  It is also close to forming a closed
circulation as well.  Increasing and solid areas of pcpn exist
around this heart of the system over IA with an arm of patches of
pcpn extending southward thru our region currently.  All pcpn is
currently rain over our region with surface temps in the 40s.  An
initial cold front extends thru northwest MO and southeast KS but
the CAA associated with it is weak.  A stronger shot of cold air is
pushing thru the Mid-MO river valley in eastern NE and western IA.

There is finally excellent model consensus on the structure and
track of this system, with the GFS the big winner on depicting a
closed circulation and farther SW track first with the rest getting
on board:  the closed upper level system will track to close to the
STL metro area by midday and then into western KY by nightfall.  Two
shots of pcpn will be the main players here, with the first out
ahead of the system from STL metro to southwest MO currently
associated with strong vorticity and will shift a bit to the
southeast thru midday.  The second main area of pcpn will be the
deformation zone itself currently in IA, and this will be dragged
bodily southward as the system digs.  The deformation zone is
expected to impact the entire forecast area at some point, entering
the northern CWA in northern MO-central IL by late morning, and then
not exiting areas to the south and east of STL metro until evening.

Thanks to sufficient cold air existing aloft, pcpn-types will
largely be driven by surface temps.  However, the more significant
cold air push is expected to be delayed until shortly after the
arrival of the deformation zone pcpn and will also be accompanied by
strong gusty NW winds.  So pcpn-types look to be all rain at all
locations thru 18z, with a gradual mix in of snow for northeast MO
and west-central IL during early afternoon and making a run towards
I-70 by nightfall.  This trend to then continue into the evening for
STL metro and areas to the south and east.  All-in-all, the
appearance of the snow will probably not amount to much more than an
hour or two, with a bit more for areas around UIN and into central
IL.  Any snow accums will likely be confined to the UIN area and
areas heading into central IL but just a dusting is expected.

The push of the cold air will need to be watched, however, with an
earlier arrival and/or deeper/slower system will lead to increased
snow amounts.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

NW flow aloft will continue to prevail thru Tuesday night with quiet
wx expected.  Temps will recover to above seasonable levels in MO
and close to seasonable levels in IL.

A shortwave disturbance is still on track for Wednesday night and
have maintained mentionable PoPs for rain.  If the surface low
reflection can drop more to the south, will need to boost them
significantly.  Slight chances were also maintained for Saturday,
but that is looking less of a possibility due to the northern
influences dominating more--keeping a strong southern storm isolated
well to the southwest.

Mild temps areawide can be expected Wednesday, and perhaps into
Thursday depending on the frontal timing, but it looks like a cooler
period is then in store for next weekend.  The EC and GFS have split
on how to handle an Arctic boundary, with the GFS backing way off.
So for now, a return to seasonable temps for next weekend the best
bet until a better consensus is achieved.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251758
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Satellite data at 08z indicates the heart of a strong clipper system
over west-central IA and is chugging southeastward towards our
region at a good rate.  It is also close to forming a closed
circulation as well.  Increasing and solid areas of pcpn exist
around this heart of the system over IA with an arm of patches of
pcpn extending southward thru our region currently.  All pcpn is
currently rain over our region with surface temps in the 40s.  An
initial cold front extends thru northwest MO and southeast KS but
the CAA associated with it is weak.  A stronger shot of cold air is
pushing thru the Mid-MO river valley in eastern NE and western IA.

There is finally excellent model consensus on the structure and
track of this system, with the GFS the big winner on depicting a
closed circulation and farther SW track first with the rest getting
on board:  the closed upper level system will track to close to the
STL metro area by midday and then into western KY by nightfall.  Two
shots of pcpn will be the main players here, with the first out
ahead of the system from STL metro to southwest MO currently
associated with strong vorticity and will shift a bit to the
southeast thru midday.  The second main area of pcpn will be the
deformation zone itself currently in IA, and this will be dragged
bodily southward as the system digs.  The deformation zone is
expected to impact the entire forecast area at some point, entering
the northern CWA in northern MO-central IL by late morning, and then
not exiting areas to the south and east of STL metro until evening.

Thanks to sufficient cold air existing aloft, pcpn-types will
largely be driven by surface temps.  However, the more significant
cold air push is expected to be delayed until shortly after the
arrival of the deformation zone pcpn and will also be accompanied by
strong gusty NW winds.  So pcpn-types look to be all rain at all
locations thru 18z, with a gradual mix in of snow for northeast MO
and west-central IL during early afternoon and making a run towards
I-70 by nightfall.  This trend to then continue into the evening for
STL metro and areas to the south and east.  All-in-all, the
appearance of the snow will probably not amount to much more than an
hour or two, with a bit more for areas around UIN and into central
IL.  Any snow accums will likely be confined to the UIN area and
areas heading into central IL but just a dusting is expected.

The push of the cold air will need to be watched, however, with an
earlier arrival and/or deeper/slower system will lead to increased
snow amounts.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

NW flow aloft will continue to prevail thru Tuesday night with quiet
wx expected.  Temps will recover to above seasonable levels in MO
and close to seasonable levels in IL.

A shortwave disturbance is still on track for Wednesday night and
have maintained mentionable PoPs for rain.  If the surface low
reflection can drop more to the south, will need to boost them
significantly.  Slight chances were also maintained for Saturday,
but that is looking less of a possibility due to the northern
influences dominating more--keeping a strong southern storm isolated
well to the southwest.

Mild temps areawide can be expected Wednesday, and perhaps into
Thursday depending on the frontal timing, but it looks like a cooler
period is then in store for next weekend.  The EC and GFS have split
on how to handle an Arctic boundary, with the GFS backing way off.
So for now, a return to seasonable temps for next weekend the best
bet until a better consensus is achieved.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251758
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Satellite data at 08z indicates the heart of a strong clipper system
over west-central IA and is chugging southeastward towards our
region at a good rate.  It is also close to forming a closed
circulation as well.  Increasing and solid areas of pcpn exist
around this heart of the system over IA with an arm of patches of
pcpn extending southward thru our region currently.  All pcpn is
currently rain over our region with surface temps in the 40s.  An
initial cold front extends thru northwest MO and southeast KS but
the CAA associated with it is weak.  A stronger shot of cold air is
pushing thru the Mid-MO river valley in eastern NE and western IA.

There is finally excellent model consensus on the structure and
track of this system, with the GFS the big winner on depicting a
closed circulation and farther SW track first with the rest getting
on board:  the closed upper level system will track to close to the
STL metro area by midday and then into western KY by nightfall.  Two
shots of pcpn will be the main players here, with the first out
ahead of the system from STL metro to southwest MO currently
associated with strong vorticity and will shift a bit to the
southeast thru midday.  The second main area of pcpn will be the
deformation zone itself currently in IA, and this will be dragged
bodily southward as the system digs.  The deformation zone is
expected to impact the entire forecast area at some point, entering
the northern CWA in northern MO-central IL by late morning, and then
not exiting areas to the south and east of STL metro until evening.

Thanks to sufficient cold air existing aloft, pcpn-types will
largely be driven by surface temps.  However, the more significant
cold air push is expected to be delayed until shortly after the
arrival of the deformation zone pcpn and will also be accompanied by
strong gusty NW winds.  So pcpn-types look to be all rain at all
locations thru 18z, with a gradual mix in of snow for northeast MO
and west-central IL during early afternoon and making a run towards
I-70 by nightfall.  This trend to then continue into the evening for
STL metro and areas to the south and east.  All-in-all, the
appearance of the snow will probably not amount to much more than an
hour or two, with a bit more for areas around UIN and into central
IL.  Any snow accums will likely be confined to the UIN area and
areas heading into central IL but just a dusting is expected.

The push of the cold air will need to be watched, however, with an
earlier arrival and/or deeper/slower system will lead to increased
snow amounts.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

NW flow aloft will continue to prevail thru Tuesday night with quiet
wx expected.  Temps will recover to above seasonable levels in MO
and close to seasonable levels in IL.

A shortwave disturbance is still on track for Wednesday night and
have maintained mentionable PoPs for rain.  If the surface low
reflection can drop more to the south, will need to boost them
significantly.  Slight chances were also maintained for Saturday,
but that is looking less of a possibility due to the northern
influences dominating more--keeping a strong southern storm isolated
well to the southwest.

Mild temps areawide can be expected Wednesday, and perhaps into
Thursday depending on the frontal timing, but it looks like a cooler
period is then in store for next weekend.  The EC and GFS have split
on how to handle an Arctic boundary, with the GFS backing way off.
So for now, a return to seasonable temps for next weekend the best
bet until a better consensus is achieved.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251758
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Satellite data at 08z indicates the heart of a strong clipper system
over west-central IA and is chugging southeastward towards our
region at a good rate.  It is also close to forming a closed
circulation as well.  Increasing and solid areas of pcpn exist
around this heart of the system over IA with an arm of patches of
pcpn extending southward thru our region currently.  All pcpn is
currently rain over our region with surface temps in the 40s.  An
initial cold front extends thru northwest MO and southeast KS but
the CAA associated with it is weak.  A stronger shot of cold air is
pushing thru the Mid-MO river valley in eastern NE and western IA.

There is finally excellent model consensus on the structure and
track of this system, with the GFS the big winner on depicting a
closed circulation and farther SW track first with the rest getting
on board:  the closed upper level system will track to close to the
STL metro area by midday and then into western KY by nightfall.  Two
shots of pcpn will be the main players here, with the first out
ahead of the system from STL metro to southwest MO currently
associated with strong vorticity and will shift a bit to the
southeast thru midday.  The second main area of pcpn will be the
deformation zone itself currently in IA, and this will be dragged
bodily southward as the system digs.  The deformation zone is
expected to impact the entire forecast area at some point, entering
the northern CWA in northern MO-central IL by late morning, and then
not exiting areas to the south and east of STL metro until evening.

Thanks to sufficient cold air existing aloft, pcpn-types will
largely be driven by surface temps.  However, the more significant
cold air push is expected to be delayed until shortly after the
arrival of the deformation zone pcpn and will also be accompanied by
strong gusty NW winds.  So pcpn-types look to be all rain at all
locations thru 18z, with a gradual mix in of snow for northeast MO
and west-central IL during early afternoon and making a run towards
I-70 by nightfall.  This trend to then continue into the evening for
STL metro and areas to the south and east.  All-in-all, the
appearance of the snow will probably not amount to much more than an
hour or two, with a bit more for areas around UIN and into central
IL.  Any snow accums will likely be confined to the UIN area and
areas heading into central IL but just a dusting is expected.

The push of the cold air will need to be watched, however, with an
earlier arrival and/or deeper/slower system will lead to increased
snow amounts.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

NW flow aloft will continue to prevail thru Tuesday night with quiet
wx expected.  Temps will recover to above seasonable levels in MO
and close to seasonable levels in IL.

A shortwave disturbance is still on track for Wednesday night and
have maintained mentionable PoPs for rain.  If the surface low
reflection can drop more to the south, will need to boost them
significantly.  Slight chances were also maintained for Saturday,
but that is looking less of a possibility due to the northern
influences dominating more--keeping a strong southern storm isolated
well to the southwest.

Mild temps areawide can be expected Wednesday, and perhaps into
Thursday depending on the frontal timing, but it looks like a cooler
period is then in store for next weekend.  The EC and GFS have split
on how to handle an Arctic boundary, with the GFS backing way off.
So for now, a return to seasonable temps for next weekend the best
bet until a better consensus is achieved.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Low pressure centered just to the east-southeast of St. Louis will
continue moving east-southeast through tonight. Light rain falling
across much of the area will continue into the afternoon, changing
to light snow before ending early this evening. MVFR conditions
south of the I-70 corridor are expected to fall to IFR this
afternoon. IFR flight conditions are expected to continue to
prevail at least into the early evening, with improving ceilings
and visibilities as the precipitation comes to and end and the low
moves further east. Some guidance suggests that the low clouds
will scatter out overnight, however am siding with more pessimistic
models at this time as there is a lot of MVFR and even IFR up
across the Dakotas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. One other
feature of note, wind will be increasing substantially later this
afternoon as the low pulls away. Expect north-northwest wind
sustained between 15 to 20 kts with gusts potentially up to 30 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect IFR ceilings and at times IFR visibilities in light
rain/drizzle this afternoon. Wind will increase to the northwest
later sustained between 15 and 20 kts with gusts between 25 and
30 kts. Still expecting a little snow late this afternoon or early
this evening. Confidence in the exact timing of the snow is not
especially high though. Did not want to change the current 23Z
transition time for the 18Z TAF because of this, but an hour on
either side of 23Z still seems like the most likely. Snow should
end quickly this evening with ceilings between 1000-2000 FT
persisting through Monday morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251711
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1111 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable when compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after
sunrise as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251711
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1111 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable when compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after
sunrise as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Residual precipitation will continue to clear out of the area with
MVFR ceilings remaining in place through the remainder of Sunday.
Gusty NW winds will taper off around 01Z while gradually backing
through the period. Ceilings will begin to lift overnight with gusty
winds resuming around 16Z on Monday out of the SW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable when compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after
sunrise as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR cigs slowly working south over area terminals this morning.
Expect heights to continue decreasing below fuel alternate mins before
holding steady for much of the day. Right now...currently not
anticipating values falling below IFR thresholds however trends will
need to be monitored. The other main story will be strong northerly
winds with gusts as high as 35 kts possible today before winds calm
by early evening. Overnight...VFR conditions to return as high
pressure allows low cigs to gradually scatter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable when compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after
sunrise as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR cigs slowly working south over area terminals this morning.
Expect heights to continue decreasing below fuel alternate mins before
holding steady for much of the day. Right now...currently not
anticipating values falling below IFR thresholds however trends will
need to be monitored. The other main story will be strong northerly
winds with gusts as high as 35 kts possible today before winds calm
by early evening. Overnight...VFR conditions to return as high
pressure allows low cigs to gradually scatter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable when compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after
sunrise as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR cigs slowly working south over area terminals this morning.
Expect heights to continue decreasing below fuel alternate mins before
holding steady for much of the day. Right now...currently not
anticipating values falling below IFR thresholds however trends will
need to be monitored. The other main story will be strong northerly
winds with gusts as high as 35 kts possible today before winds calm
by early evening. Overnight...VFR conditions to return as high
pressure allows low cigs to gradually scatter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable when compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after
sunrise as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR cigs slowly working south over area terminals this morning.
Expect heights to continue decreasing below fuel alternate mins before
holding steady for much of the day. Right now...currently not
anticipating values falling below IFR thresholds however trends will
need to be monitored. The other main story will be strong northerly
winds with gusts as high as 35 kts possible today before winds calm
by early evening. Overnight...VFR conditions to return as high
pressure allows low cigs to gradually scatter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251108
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level trough is currently diving south across the central
Plains early this morning. Some scattered sprinkles or light rain
is occurring across the area ahead of the trough. The trough will
push to the southeast through the area today and light rain or
flurries will occur at times. Will not be an all day rain but
there could be off and on light rain and sprinkles through much of
the day especially across the eastern Ozarks. The best coverage in
this light rain will occur this morning across the eastern
Ozarks. This afternoon there will still be the light rain or
sprinkles occurring at times, the better chances will remain across
the eastern Ozarks.

As the upper level trough passes south through the area height
falls will quickly cool the mid levels of the atmosphere today,
but low level temperatures at the surface and just above the ground
will remain warm enough for all rain through much of the day. A
cold front will drop south through the area today and temperatures
will fall this afternoon especially across central Missouri, which
may allow a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain late this
afternoon into early this evening. This will be very light
snow/flurries mixing in with rain and with surface temperatures
above freezing no accumulations will occur. The precipitation
will come to an end by the mid evening hours.

Cloudy skies and the passage of the cold front late this morning
will keep temperatures cooler today. Most locations highs for the
entire day will occur this morning, with temperatures holding
steady or slightly or falling this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level ridge will then build east across the Plains and
over the region by Wednesday. This will allow a nice warm up with
highs warming into the 50s and 60s and each day through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push the ridge to the east and usher
in cooler conditions late this week into the weekend as highs only
warm into the 40s as a second upper level trough tracks through
the region. Moisture will be limited with this system but some
light rain or sprinkles may be possible on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 505 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Shortwave energy and surface front will push through the area
today. Ceilings will continue to drop into the MVFR category today
with rainfall possible, mainly at SGF/BBG. Winds will be the main
aviation hazard today behind the front with gusty northwest winds
of up to 20 kt sustained / 30kt gusts possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251108
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level trough is currently diving south across the central
Plains early this morning. Some scattered sprinkles or light rain
is occurring across the area ahead of the trough. The trough will
push to the southeast through the area today and light rain or
flurries will occur at times. Will not be an all day rain but
there could be off and on light rain and sprinkles through much of
the day especially across the eastern Ozarks. The best coverage in
this light rain will occur this morning across the eastern
Ozarks. This afternoon there will still be the light rain or
sprinkles occurring at times, the better chances will remain across
the eastern Ozarks.

As the upper level trough passes south through the area height
falls will quickly cool the mid levels of the atmosphere today,
but low level temperatures at the surface and just above the ground
will remain warm enough for all rain through much of the day. A
cold front will drop south through the area today and temperatures
will fall this afternoon especially across central Missouri, which
may allow a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain late this
afternoon into early this evening. This will be very light
snow/flurries mixing in with rain and with surface temperatures
above freezing no accumulations will occur. The precipitation
will come to an end by the mid evening hours.

Cloudy skies and the passage of the cold front late this morning
will keep temperatures cooler today. Most locations highs for the
entire day will occur this morning, with temperatures holding
steady or slightly or falling this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level ridge will then build east across the Plains and
over the region by Wednesday. This will allow a nice warm up with
highs warming into the 50s and 60s and each day through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push the ridge to the east and usher
in cooler conditions late this week into the weekend as highs only
warm into the 40s as a second upper level trough tracks through
the region. Moisture will be limited with this system but some
light rain or sprinkles may be possible on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 505 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Shortwave energy and surface front will push through the area
today. Ceilings will continue to drop into the MVFR category today
with rainfall possible, mainly at SGF/BBG. Winds will be the main
aviation hazard today behind the front with gusty northwest winds
of up to 20 kt sustained / 30kt gusts possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level trough is currently diving south across the central
Plains early this morning. Some scattered sprinkles or light rain
is occurring across the area ahead of the trough. The trough will
push to the southeast through the area today and light rain or
flurries will occur at times. Will not be an all day rain but
there could be off and on light rain and sprinkles through much of
the day especially across the eastern Ozarks. The best coverage in
this light rain will occur this morning across the eastern
Ozarks. This afternoon there will still be the light rain or
sprinkles occurring at times, the better chances will remain across
the eastern Ozarks.

As the upper level trough passes south through the area height
falls will quickly cool the mid levels of the atmosphere today,
but low level temperatures at the surface and just above the ground
will remain warm enough for all rain through much of the day. A
cold front will drop south through the area today and temperatures
will fall this afternoon especially across central Missouri, which
may allow a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain late this
afternoon into early this evening. This will be very light
snow/flurries mixing in with rain and with surface temperatures
above freezing no accumulations will occur. The precipitation
will come to an end by the mid evening hours.

Cloudy skies and the passage of the cold front late this morning
will keep temperatures cooler today. Most locations highs for the
entire day will occur this morning, with temperatures holding
steady or slightly or falling this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level ridge will then build east across the Plains and
over the region by Wednesday. This will allow a nice warm up with
highs warming into the 50s and 60s and each day through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push the ridge to the east and usher
in cooler conditions late this week into the weekend as highs only
warm into the 40s as a second upper level trough tracks through
the region. Moisture will be limited with this system but some
light rain or sprinkles may be possible on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over IA will reach
eastern KY by the end of the taf period. Gradually lowering vfr
ceilings will occur in the near term, with ceilings falling into
the mvfr cat behind a cold frontal passage toward 12z-15z. Some
light precip/showers wrapping around the low will affect the region,
mainly after 18z, but for now will not mention any visibility
restriction. Gusty winds will occur behind the front with gusts of
30 kts possible at KJLN and KSGF.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 250927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level trough is currently diving south across the central
Plains early this morning. Some scattered sprinkles or light rain
is occurring across the area ahead of the trough. The trough will
push to the southeast through the area today and light rain or
flurries will occur at times. Will not be an all day rain but
there could be off and on light rain and sprinkles through much of
the day especially across the eastern Ozarks. The best coverage in
this light rain will occur this morning across the eastern
Ozarks. This afternoon there will still be the light rain or
sprinkles occurring at times, the better chances will remain across
the eastern Ozarks.

As the upper level trough passes south through the area height
falls will quickly cool the mid levels of the atmosphere today,
but low level temperatures at the surface and just above the ground
will remain warm enough for all rain through much of the day. A
cold front will drop south through the area today and temperatures
will fall this afternoon especially across central Missouri, which
may allow a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain late this
afternoon into early this evening. This will be very light
snow/flurries mixing in with rain and with surface temperatures
above freezing no accumulations will occur. The precipitation
will come to an end by the mid evening hours.

Cloudy skies and the passage of the cold front late this morning
will keep temperatures cooler today. Most locations highs for the
entire day will occur this morning, with temperatures holding
steady or slightly or falling this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level ridge will then build east across the Plains and
over the region by Wednesday. This will allow a nice warm up with
highs warming into the 50s and 60s and each day through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push the ridge to the east and usher
in cooler conditions late this week into the weekend as highs only
warm into the 40s as a second upper level trough tracks through
the region. Moisture will be limited with this system but some
light rain or sprinkles may be possible on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over IA will reach
eastern KY by the end of the taf period. Gradually lowering vfr
ceilings will occur in the near term, with ceilings falling into
the mvfr cat behind a cold frontal passage toward 12z-15z. Some
light precip/showers wrapping around the low will affect the region,
mainly after 18z, but for now will not mention any visibility
restriction. Gusty winds will occur behind the front with gusts of
30 kts possible at KJLN and KSGF.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KEAX 250923
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable as compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after sunrise
as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain moving through the region will taper off over the
next few hours. Ceilings and visibilities remain well into VFR so the
only significant impacts will be runway wetting. A lull is expected
later tonight followed by another round of lighter rain Sunday
morning, especially across northern and northeast MO. Could see a few
snowflakes Sunday afternoon toward IRK. Bigger concern will be winds
which could gust higher than 30kts at times Sunday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250923
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable as compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after sunrise
as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain moving through the region will taper off over the
next few hours. Ceilings and visibilities remain well into VFR so the
only significant impacts will be runway wetting. A lull is expected
later tonight followed by another round of lighter rain Sunday
morning, especially across northern and northeast MO. Could see a few
snowflakes Sunday afternoon toward IRK. Bigger concern will be winds
which could gust higher than 30kts at times Sunday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250923
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable as compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after sunrise
as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain moving through the region will taper off over the
next few hours. Ceilings and visibilities remain well into VFR so the
only significant impacts will be runway wetting. A lull is expected
later tonight followed by another round of lighter rain Sunday
morning, especially across northern and northeast MO. Could see a few
snowflakes Sunday afternoon toward IRK. Bigger concern will be winds
which could gust higher than 30kts at times Sunday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250923
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable as compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after sunrise
as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain moving through the region will taper off over the
next few hours. Ceilings and visibilities remain well into VFR so the
only significant impacts will be runway wetting. A lull is expected
later tonight followed by another round of lighter rain Sunday
morning, especially across northern and northeast MO. Could see a few
snowflakes Sunday afternoon toward IRK. Bigger concern will be winds
which could gust higher than 30kts at times Sunday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250922
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Satellite data at 08z indicates the heart of a strong clipper system
over west-central IA and is chugging southeastward towards our
region at a good rate.  It is also close to forming a closed
circulation as well.  Increasing and solid areas of pcpn exist
around this heart of the system over IA with an arm of patches of
pcpn extending southward thru our region currently.  All pcpn is
currently rain over our region with surface temps in the 40s.  An
initial cold front extends thru northwest MO and southeast KS but
the CAA associated with it is weak.  A stronger shot of cold air is
pushing thru the Mid-MO river valley in eastern NE and western IA.

There is finally excellent model consensus on the structure and
track of this system, with the GFS the big winner on depicting a
closed circulation and farther SW track first with the rest getting
on board:  the closed upper level system will track to close to the
STL metro area by midday and then into western KY by nightfall.  Two
shots of pcpn will be the main players here, with the first out
ahead of the system from STL metro to southwest MO currently
associated with strong vorticity and will shift a bit to the
southeast thru midday.  The second main area of pcpn will be the
deformation zone itself currently in IA, and this will be dragged
bodily southward as the system digs.  The deformation zone is
expected to impact the entire forecast area at some point, entering
the northern CWA in northern MO-central IL by late morning, and then
not exiting areas to the south and east of STL metro until evening.

Thanks to sufficient cold air existing aloft, pcpn-types will
largely be driven by surface temps.  However, the more significant
cold air push is expected to be delayed until shortly after the
arrival of the deformation zone pcpn and will also be accompanied by
strong gusty NW winds.  So pcpn-types look to be all rain at all
locations thru 18z, with a gradual mix in of snow for northeast MO
and west-central IL during early afternoon and making a run towards
I-70 by nightfall.  This trend to then continue into the evening for
STL metro and areas to the south and east.  All-in-all, the
appearance of the snow will probably not amount to much more than an
hour or two, with a bit more for areas around UIN and into central
IL.  Any snow accums will likely be confined to the UIN area and
areas heading into central IL but just a dusting is expected.

The push of the cold air will need to be watched, however, with an
earlier arrival and/or deeper/slower system will lead to increased
snow amounts.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

NW flow aloft will continue to prevail thru Tuesday night with quiet
wx expected.  Temps will recover to above seasonable levels in MO
and close to seasonable levels in IL.

A shortwave disturbance is still on track for Wednesday night and
have maintained mentionable PoPs for rain.  If the surface low
reflection can drop more to the south, will need to boost them
significantly.  Slight chances were also maintained for Saturday,
but that is looking less of a possibility due to the northern
influences dominating more--keeping a strong southern storm isolated
well to the southwest.

Mild temps areawide can be expected Wednesday, and perhaps into
Thursday depending on the frontal timing, but it looks like a cooler
period is then in store for next weekend.  The EC and GFS have split
on how to handle an Arctic boundary, with the GFS backing way off.
So for now, a return to seasonable temps for next weekend the best
bet until a better consensus is achieved.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

Surface low over south central Iowa to continue tracking southeast
through forecast area during forecast period. Cigs to gradually
lower as system approaches with MVFR cigs/vsbys expected with
onset of main area of rain...between 11z and 14z Sunday. Will see
dry slot move into KCOU and metro area tafs by mid morning, so
kept vcsh mention. As for KUIN, they will remain mvfr and actually
lower to ifr as they are closer to track of surface low, lifting
back to mvfr by this evening. Then as colder air filters in this
afternoon, rain to pickup and become mixed with snow before coming
to an end this evening. Cigs to remain mvfr through rest of
forecast period. As for winds, southwest winds to veer to the west
then north and become gusty to around 25kts at times. North winds
to diminish by this evening but remain around 10 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low over south central Iowa to continue tracking southeast
through forecast area during forecast period. Cigs to gradually
lower as system approaches with MVFR cigs/vsbys expected with
onset of main area of rain...by 14z Sunday. Will see
dry slot move into metro area tafs by 17z Sunday, so kept vcsh mention.
Then as colder air filters in this afternoon, rain to pickup and
become mixed with snow before coming to an end this evening. Cigs
to remain mvfr through rest of forecast period. As for winds,
southwest winds to veer to the west then north and become gusty to
around 25kts at times by 21z Sunday. North winds to diminish by this
evening but remain around 10 kts.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 250922
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Satellite data at 08z indicates the heart of a strong clipper system
over west-central IA and is chugging southeastward towards our
region at a good rate.  It is also close to forming a closed
circulation as well.  Increasing and solid areas of pcpn exist
around this heart of the system over IA with an arm of patches of
pcpn extending southward thru our region currently.  All pcpn is
currently rain over our region with surface temps in the 40s.  An
initial cold front extends thru northwest MO and southeast KS but
the CAA associated with it is weak.  A stronger shot of cold air is
pushing thru the Mid-MO river valley in eastern NE and western IA.

There is finally excellent model consensus on the structure and
track of this system, with the GFS the big winner on depicting a
closed circulation and farther SW track first with the rest getting
on board:  the closed upper level system will track to close to the
STL metro area by midday and then into western KY by nightfall.  Two
shots of pcpn will be the main players here, with the first out
ahead of the system from STL metro to southwest MO currently
associated with strong vorticity and will shift a bit to the
southeast thru midday.  The second main area of pcpn will be the
deformation zone itself currently in IA, and this will be dragged
bodily southward as the system digs.  The deformation zone is
expected to impact the entire forecast area at some point, entering
the northern CWA in northern MO-central IL by late morning, and then
not exiting areas to the south and east of STL metro until evening.

Thanks to sufficient cold air existing aloft, pcpn-types will
largely be driven by surface temps.  However, the more significant
cold air push is expected to be delayed until shortly after the
arrival of the deformation zone pcpn and will also be accompanied by
strong gusty NW winds.  So pcpn-types look to be all rain at all
locations thru 18z, with a gradual mix in of snow for northeast MO
and west-central IL during early afternoon and making a run towards
I-70 by nightfall.  This trend to then continue into the evening for
STL metro and areas to the south and east.  All-in-all, the
appearance of the snow will probably not amount to much more than an
hour or two, with a bit more for areas around UIN and into central
IL.  Any snow accums will likely be confined to the UIN area and
areas heading into central IL but just a dusting is expected.

The push of the cold air will need to be watched, however, with an
earlier arrival and/or deeper/slower system will lead to increased
snow amounts.

TES

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

NW flow aloft will continue to prevail thru Tuesday night with quiet
wx expected.  Temps will recover to above seasonable levels in MO
and close to seasonable levels in IL.

A shortwave disturbance is still on track for Wednesday night and
have maintained mentionable PoPs for rain.  If the surface low
reflection can drop more to the south, will need to boost them
significantly.  Slight chances were also maintained for Saturday,
but that is looking less of a possibility due to the northern
influences dominating more--keeping a strong southern storm isolated
well to the southwest.

Mild temps areawide can be expected Wednesday, and perhaps into
Thursday depending on the frontal timing, but it looks like a cooler
period is then in store for next weekend.  The EC and GFS have split
on how to handle an Arctic boundary, with the GFS backing way off.
So for now, a return to seasonable temps for next weekend the best
bet until a better consensus is achieved.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

Surface low over south central Iowa to continue tracking southeast
through forecast area during forecast period. Cigs to gradually
lower as system approaches with MVFR cigs/vsbys expected with
onset of main area of rain...between 11z and 14z Sunday. Will see
dry slot move into KCOU and metro area tafs by mid morning, so
kept vcsh mention. As for KUIN, they will remain mvfr and actually
lower to ifr as they are closer to track of surface low, lifting
back to mvfr by this evening. Then as colder air filters in this
afternoon, rain to pickup and become mixed with snow before coming
to an end this evening. Cigs to remain mvfr through rest of
forecast period. As for winds, southwest winds to veer to the west
then north and become gusty to around 25kts at times. North winds
to diminish by this evening but remain around 10 kts.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low over south central Iowa to continue tracking southeast
through forecast area during forecast period. Cigs to gradually
lower as system approaches with MVFR cigs/vsbys expected with
onset of main area of rain...by 14z Sunday. Will see
dry slot move into metro area tafs by 17z Sunday, so kept vcsh mention.
Then as colder air filters in this afternoon, rain to pickup and
become mixed with snow before coming to an end this evening. Cigs
to remain mvfr through rest of forecast period. As for winds,
southwest winds to veer to the west then north and become gusty to
around 25kts at times by 21z Sunday. North winds to diminish by this
evening but remain around 10 kts.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 250600
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After a warm and pleasant day today, a shortwave currently diving
south across the northern High Plains will push into the area
tonight.  The atmosphere should quickly saturate after midnight as
the wave begins to move through, with an area of light rain expected
to develop ahead of an associated surface front.  QPF amounts don`t
look to be terribly high--no more than a few hundredths in most
cases--but have increased PoPs quite a bit given what should be a
high chance of measuring at least something.  PoPs will be highest
across Central Missouri, where moisture and lift will be best
juxtaposed.

Winds will increase out of the northwest Sunday morning behind the
front. A second round of light precipitation will be possible Sunday
afternoon as the back side of the shortwave swings through.  Enough
cold air may have filtered into the area by this time to result in a
few flurries mixed in with the light rain/sprinkles, though it
certainly should`t amount to too much. Temperatures Sunday will top
out in the 40s by midday, and fall into the upper 30s in many spots
by late Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Despite the cold front passage on Sunday, temperatures Monday will
rebound back into the 50s across the western half of the forecast
area as heights begin to rise aloft courtesy of a building ridge
across the Rockies.  That ridge will translate to the east on
Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in a stretch of very nice,
seasonably warm days, as temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s.

A couple of shortwaves will then pass through the area Thursday, and
while their passage appears to be fairly dry at this point,
temperatures will drop back closer to seasonal averages for the end
of the workweek.

Heading into next weekend, the extended guidance suite is hinting at
another strong cutoff low off the southern California coast, with
moisture streaming north toward the region.  This may be our next
best chance of significant precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over IA will reach
eastern KY by the end of the taf period. Gradually lowering vfr
ceilings will occur in the near term, with ceilings falling into
the mvfr cat behind a cold frontal passage toward 12z-15z. Some
light precip/showers wrapping around the low will affect the region,
mainly after 18z, but for now will not mention any visibility
restriction. Gusty winds will occur behind the front with gusts of
30 kts possible at KJLN and KSGF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250600
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After a warm and pleasant day today, a shortwave currently diving
south across the northern High Plains will push into the area
tonight.  The atmosphere should quickly saturate after midnight as
the wave begins to move through, with an area of light rain expected
to develop ahead of an associated surface front.  QPF amounts don`t
look to be terribly high--no more than a few hundredths in most
cases--but have increased PoPs quite a bit given what should be a
high chance of measuring at least something.  PoPs will be highest
across Central Missouri, where moisture and lift will be best
juxtaposed.

Winds will increase out of the northwest Sunday morning behind the
front. A second round of light precipitation will be possible Sunday
afternoon as the back side of the shortwave swings through.  Enough
cold air may have filtered into the area by this time to result in a
few flurries mixed in with the light rain/sprinkles, though it
certainly should`t amount to too much. Temperatures Sunday will top
out in the 40s by midday, and fall into the upper 30s in many spots
by late Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Despite the cold front passage on Sunday, temperatures Monday will
rebound back into the 50s across the western half of the forecast
area as heights begin to rise aloft courtesy of a building ridge
across the Rockies.  That ridge will translate to the east on
Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in a stretch of very nice,
seasonably warm days, as temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s.

A couple of shortwaves will then pass through the area Thursday, and
while their passage appears to be fairly dry at this point,
temperatures will drop back closer to seasonal averages for the end
of the workweek.

Heading into next weekend, the extended guidance suite is hinting at
another strong cutoff low off the southern California coast, with
moisture streaming north toward the region.  This may be our next
best chance of significant precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over IA will reach
eastern KY by the end of the taf period. Gradually lowering vfr
ceilings will occur in the near term, with ceilings falling into
the mvfr cat behind a cold frontal passage toward 12z-15z. Some
light precip/showers wrapping around the low will affect the region,
mainly after 18z, but for now will not mention any visibility
restriction. Gusty winds will occur behind the front with gusts of
30 kts possible at KJLN and KSGF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250600
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After a warm and pleasant day today, a shortwave currently diving
south across the northern High Plains will push into the area
tonight.  The atmosphere should quickly saturate after midnight as
the wave begins to move through, with an area of light rain expected
to develop ahead of an associated surface front.  QPF amounts don`t
look to be terribly high--no more than a few hundredths in most
cases--but have increased PoPs quite a bit given what should be a
high chance of measuring at least something.  PoPs will be highest
across Central Missouri, where moisture and lift will be best
juxtaposed.

Winds will increase out of the northwest Sunday morning behind the
front. A second round of light precipitation will be possible Sunday
afternoon as the back side of the shortwave swings through.  Enough
cold air may have filtered into the area by this time to result in a
few flurries mixed in with the light rain/sprinkles, though it
certainly should`t amount to too much. Temperatures Sunday will top
out in the 40s by midday, and fall into the upper 30s in many spots
by late Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Despite the cold front passage on Sunday, temperatures Monday will
rebound back into the 50s across the western half of the forecast
area as heights begin to rise aloft courtesy of a building ridge
across the Rockies.  That ridge will translate to the east on
Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in a stretch of very nice,
seasonably warm days, as temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s.

A couple of shortwaves will then pass through the area Thursday, and
while their passage appears to be fairly dry at this point,
temperatures will drop back closer to seasonal averages for the end
of the workweek.

Heading into next weekend, the extended guidance suite is hinting at
another strong cutoff low off the southern California coast, with
moisture streaming north toward the region.  This may be our next
best chance of significant precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over IA will reach
eastern KY by the end of the taf period. Gradually lowering vfr
ceilings will occur in the near term, with ceilings falling into
the mvfr cat behind a cold frontal passage toward 12z-15z. Some
light precip/showers wrapping around the low will affect the region,
mainly after 18z, but for now will not mention any visibility
restriction. Gusty winds will occur behind the front with gusts of
30 kts possible at KJLN and KSGF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250600
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After a warm and pleasant day today, a shortwave currently diving
south across the northern High Plains will push into the area
tonight.  The atmosphere should quickly saturate after midnight as
the wave begins to move through, with an area of light rain expected
to develop ahead of an associated surface front.  QPF amounts don`t
look to be terribly high--no more than a few hundredths in most
cases--but have increased PoPs quite a bit given what should be a
high chance of measuring at least something.  PoPs will be highest
across Central Missouri, where moisture and lift will be best
juxtaposed.

Winds will increase out of the northwest Sunday morning behind the
front. A second round of light precipitation will be possible Sunday
afternoon as the back side of the shortwave swings through.  Enough
cold air may have filtered into the area by this time to result in a
few flurries mixed in with the light rain/sprinkles, though it
certainly should`t amount to too much. Temperatures Sunday will top
out in the 40s by midday, and fall into the upper 30s in many spots
by late Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Despite the cold front passage on Sunday, temperatures Monday will
rebound back into the 50s across the western half of the forecast
area as heights begin to rise aloft courtesy of a building ridge
across the Rockies.  That ridge will translate to the east on
Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in a stretch of very nice,
seasonably warm days, as temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s.

A couple of shortwaves will then pass through the area Thursday, and
while their passage appears to be fairly dry at this point,
temperatures will drop back closer to seasonal averages for the end
of the workweek.

Heading into next weekend, the extended guidance suite is hinting at
another strong cutoff low off the southern California coast, with
moisture streaming north toward the region.  This may be our next
best chance of significant precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over IA will reach
eastern KY by the end of the taf period. Gradually lowering vfr
ceilings will occur in the near term, with ceilings falling into
the mvfr cat behind a cold frontal passage toward 12z-15z. Some
light precip/showers wrapping around the low will affect the region,
mainly after 18z, but for now will not mention any visibility
restriction. Gusty winds will occur behind the front with gusts of
30 kts possible at KJLN and KSGF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






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