Home > Products > State Listing > Missouri Data
Latest:
 AFDLSX |  AFDSGF |  AFDEAX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLSX 220849
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 10kts is expected thru Tues
afternoon. SUS may see some FG a couple of hours before sunrise
Tues morning, however, confidence in this event is decreasing due
to greater dewpoint spread and ssely flow. There is some
indication that TSRA may form during the pre-dawn hours Tues
morning across the srn half of IA. If these TSRA do form, believe
they will remain N of UIN, but this remains uncertain. A cdfnt is
expected to approach the region Tues evening. This fnt may bring
isod to sct TSRA along and just ahead of the fnt with winds
becoming nly behind the fnt. Due to less and somewhat uncertain
coverage of TSRA, have only added VCTS for now.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the TAF period with sly to
swly winds ahead of an approaching cdfnt. This fnt is expected to
push thru the terminal late Tues night. This fnt may be
accompanied by TSRA. However, there is too much uncertainty
regarding coverage and occurrence and have kept out of TAF for now.

Tilly
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 220849
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 10kts is expected thru Tues
afternoon. SUS may see some FG a couple of hours before sunrise
Tues morning, however, confidence in this event is decreasing due
to greater dewpoint spread and ssely flow. There is some
indication that TSRA may form during the pre-dawn hours Tues
morning across the srn half of IA. If these TSRA do form, believe
they will remain N of UIN, but this remains uncertain. A cdfnt is
expected to approach the region Tues evening. This fnt may bring
isod to sct TSRA along and just ahead of the fnt with winds
becoming nly behind the fnt. Due to less and somewhat uncertain
coverage of TSRA, have only added VCTS for now.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the TAF period with sly to
swly winds ahead of an approaching cdfnt. This fnt is expected to
push thru the terminal late Tues night. This fnt may be
accompanied by TSRA. However, there is too much uncertainty
regarding coverage and occurrence and have kept out of TAF for now.

Tilly
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 220818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Two main forecast challenges are featured over the next 36 hours.
The first being our first heat advisory of the season for extreme
southeastern Kansas and portions of central Missouri. The second
is the potential for thunderstorms late this evening through
Wednesday.

The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast for today. The hottest day of the season so far is
expected from both a temperature and heat index perspective.
Hottest areas will be the Osage Plains of extreme southeastern
Kansas and portions of west central and central Missouri.
Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the
low/mid 70s will result in heat index values around 105 degrees
for several hours. The going heat advisory is well placed with no
need for any alterations. For areas along the Ozark Plateau and
points to the southeast, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees.

A cold front is currently moving through portions of the plains
states and upper Midwest. This front will continue to steadily
slide southeastward with time today, and become a focus for
thunderstorm development this evening for areas near the MO/IA
state line. How these storms end up behaving will have
consequences on our chances for rain later this evening and well
into Wednesday. Several models support this thunderstorm activity
organizing into a linear system. System motion vectors (both
regular and forward propagating) are southerly. If a cold pool can
develop, this system could accelerate south at a decent clip. Much
will be dictated by mesoscale subtleties, and there is some
variance with the short range models as to just exactly when and
where this system will begin diving south. Bottom line, chances
for showers and storms look a bit better for much of the region
during the overnight hours, though we will have to keep an eye on
the evolution of storms to our north before better honing the
risk.

Will have to keep a close eye on how convection develops and
congeals this evening. There will be ample MUCAPE available to
this activity, with low level theta-e differences in the high 20s
this evening across our central Missouri counties. As a result, a
limited risk for severe winds is supported for areas along/north
of the Highway 54 corridor.

Heading into Wednesday, much will depend on how convection tonight
behaves. The cold pool associated with the convection may very
well become the effective cold front. Have maintained decent
chance PoPs for much of the area through Wednesday morning,
shifting south during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

After a brief respite from the heat Wednesday night and Thursday,
Friday through the weekend looks like typical July weather as high
pressure aloft builds back over the region. There will be a few
ridge riding shortwaves from time to time that will bring
intermittent chances for showers/storms, though most will remain
dry. Temperatures will be rather typical for late July, highs a
few degrees either side of 90 and lows in the 70s. The 00z suite
of model output continues to suggest yet another amplification of
the upper level pattern heading into next week. There is agreement
that another shot of cool air will spread into the eastern half of
the U.S. This would knock highs back to around 80 with lows in the
60s...and potentially cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday.

Southerly winds will continue with surface high pressure centered
southeast of the area.

A front will approach the region late Tuesday night bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Two main forecast challenges are featured over the next 36 hours.
The first being our first heat advisory of the season for extreme
southeastern Kansas and portions of central Missouri. The second
is the potential for thunderstorms late this evening through
Wednesday.

The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast for today. The hottest day of the season so far is
expected from both a temperature and heat index perspective.
Hottest areas will be the Osage Plains of extreme southeastern
Kansas and portions of west central and central Missouri.
Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the
low/mid 70s will result in heat index values around 105 degrees
for several hours. The going heat advisory is well placed with no
need for any alterations. For areas along the Ozark Plateau and
points to the southeast, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees.

A cold front is currently moving through portions of the plains
states and upper Midwest. This front will continue to steadily
slide southeastward with time today, and become a focus for
thunderstorm development this evening for areas near the MO/IA
state line. How these storms end up behaving will have
consequences on our chances for rain later this evening and well
into Wednesday. Several models support this thunderstorm activity
organizing into a linear system. System motion vectors (both
regular and forward propagating) are southerly. If a cold pool can
develop, this system could accelerate south at a decent clip. Much
will be dictated by mesoscale subtleties, and there is some
variance with the short range models as to just exactly when and
where this system will begin diving south. Bottom line, chances
for showers and storms look a bit better for much of the region
during the overnight hours, though we will have to keep an eye on
the evolution of storms to our north before better honing the
risk.

Will have to keep a close eye on how convection develops and
congeals this evening. There will be ample MUCAPE available to
this activity, with low level theta-e differences in the high 20s
this evening across our central Missouri counties. As a result, a
limited risk for severe winds is supported for areas along/north
of the Highway 54 corridor.

Heading into Wednesday, much will depend on how convection tonight
behaves. The cold pool associated with the convection may very
well become the effective cold front. Have maintained decent
chance PoPs for much of the area through Wednesday morning,
shifting south during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

After a brief respite from the heat Wednesday night and Thursday,
Friday through the weekend looks like typical July weather as high
pressure aloft builds back over the region. There will be a few
ridge riding shortwaves from time to time that will bring
intermittent chances for showers/storms, though most will remain
dry. Temperatures will be rather typical for late July, highs a
few degrees either side of 90 and lows in the 70s. The 00z suite
of model output continues to suggest yet another amplification of
the upper level pattern heading into next week. There is agreement
that another shot of cool air will spread into the eastern half of
the U.S. This would knock highs back to around 80 with lows in the
60s...and potentially cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday.

Southerly winds will continue with surface high pressure centered
southeast of the area.

A front will approach the region late Tuesday night bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Two main forecast challenges are featured over the next 36 hours.
The first being our first heat advisory of the season for extreme
southeastern Kansas and portions of central Missouri. The second
is the potential for thunderstorms late this evening through
Wednesday.

The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast for today. The hottest day of the season so far is
expected from both a temperature and heat index perspective.
Hottest areas will be the Osage Plains of extreme southeastern
Kansas and portions of west central and central Missouri.
Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the
low/mid 70s will result in heat index values around 105 degrees
for several hours. The going heat advisory is well placed with no
need for any alterations. For areas along the Ozark Plateau and
points to the southeast, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees.

A cold front is currently moving through portions of the plains
states and upper Midwest. This front will continue to steadily
slide southeastward with time today, and become a focus for
thunderstorm development this evening for areas near the MO/IA
state line. How these storms end up behaving will have
consequences on our chances for rain later this evening and well
into Wednesday. Several models support this thunderstorm activity
organizing into a linear system. System motion vectors (both
regular and forward propagating) are southerly. If a cold pool can
develop, this system could accelerate south at a decent clip. Much
will be dictated by mesoscale subtleties, and there is some
variance with the short range models as to just exactly when and
where this system will begin diving south. Bottom line, chances
for showers and storms look a bit better for much of the region
during the overnight hours, though we will have to keep an eye on
the evolution of storms to our north before better honing the
risk.

Will have to keep a close eye on how convection develops and
congeals this evening. There will be ample MUCAPE available to
this activity, with low level theta-e differences in the high 20s
this evening across our central Missouri counties. As a result, a
limited risk for severe winds is supported for areas along/north
of the Highway 54 corridor.

Heading into Wednesday, much will depend on how convection tonight
behaves. The cold pool associated with the convection may very
well become the effective cold front. Have maintained decent
chance PoPs for much of the area through Wednesday morning,
shifting south during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

After a brief respite from the heat Wednesday night and Thursday,
Friday through the weekend looks like typical July weather as high
pressure aloft builds back over the region. There will be a few
ridge riding shortwaves from time to time that will bring
intermittent chances for showers/storms, though most will remain
dry. Temperatures will be rather typical for late July, highs a
few degrees either side of 90 and lows in the 70s. The 00z suite
of model output continues to suggest yet another amplification of
the upper level pattern heading into next week. There is agreement
that another shot of cool air will spread into the eastern half of
the U.S. This would knock highs back to around 80 with lows in the
60s...and potentially cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday.

Southerly winds will continue with surface high pressure centered
southeast of the area.

A front will approach the region late Tuesday night bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Two main forecast challenges are featured over the next 36 hours.
The first being our first heat advisory of the season for extreme
southeastern Kansas and portions of central Missouri. The second
is the potential for thunderstorms late this evening through
Wednesday.

The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast for today. The hottest day of the season so far is
expected from both a temperature and heat index perspective.
Hottest areas will be the Osage Plains of extreme southeastern
Kansas and portions of west central and central Missouri.
Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the
low/mid 70s will result in heat index values around 105 degrees
for several hours. The going heat advisory is well placed with no
need for any alterations. For areas along the Ozark Plateau and
points to the southeast, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees.

A cold front is currently moving through portions of the plains
states and upper Midwest. This front will continue to steadily
slide southeastward with time today, and become a focus for
thunderstorm development this evening for areas near the MO/IA
state line. How these storms end up behaving will have
consequences on our chances for rain later this evening and well
into Wednesday. Several models support this thunderstorm activity
organizing into a linear system. System motion vectors (both
regular and forward propagating) are southerly. If a cold pool can
develop, this system could accelerate south at a decent clip. Much
will be dictated by mesoscale subtleties, and there is some
variance with the short range models as to just exactly when and
where this system will begin diving south. Bottom line, chances
for showers and storms look a bit better for much of the region
during the overnight hours, though we will have to keep an eye on
the evolution of storms to our north before better honing the
risk.

Will have to keep a close eye on how convection develops and
congeals this evening. There will be ample MUCAPE available to
this activity, with low level theta-e differences in the high 20s
this evening across our central Missouri counties. As a result, a
limited risk for severe winds is supported for areas along/north
of the Highway 54 corridor.

Heading into Wednesday, much will depend on how convection tonight
behaves. The cold pool associated with the convection may very
well become the effective cold front. Have maintained decent
chance PoPs for much of the area through Wednesday morning,
shifting south during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

After a brief respite from the heat Wednesday night and Thursday,
Friday through the weekend looks like typical July weather as high
pressure aloft builds back over the region. There will be a few
ridge riding shortwaves from time to time that will bring
intermittent chances for showers/storms, though most will remain
dry. Temperatures will be rather typical for late July, highs a
few degrees either side of 90 and lows in the 70s. The 00z suite
of model output continues to suggest yet another amplification of
the upper level pattern heading into next week. There is agreement
that another shot of cool air will spread into the eastern half of
the U.S. This would knock highs back to around 80 with lows in the
60s...and potentially cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday.

Southerly winds will continue with surface high pressure centered
southeast of the area.

A front will approach the region late Tuesday night bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 220809
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today - Tonight:

Temperatures today will likely be about 5 degrees warmer than
yesterday with similar humidity values. This is going to result in
oppressive heat across the area with heat indices approaching 110
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. No significant
changes were made to the temperature forecast and the heat advisory
will obviously remain as is.

The main challenge with the forecast is the potential for storms to
develop along a front that will be moving into the area from the
north. Instability will be extreme with MLCAPE values around 5000
J/kg. Shear will initially be very weak but may increase and become
more favorable overnight as a weak upper shortwave moves into the
area. The very warm temperatures aloft should inhibit convection
during the afternoon. But there may be enough lift along the front
the overcome this so have maintained a very slight chance of storms
in far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas as a
result. If a storm can develop during the heat of the afternoon,
there will be a good chance for damaging downburst winds. The
probability of storms increases during the late evening and
overnight hours. The weak shortwave, in conjunction with the frontal
forcing, may provide enough lift for more widespread storms to form.
There will remain ample instability into the overnight but it will
really depend on if and how quickly stronger shear can move into the
area. With the strong instability and weak shear, the likelihood of
storms primarily being wind producers is high as there will be in
imbalance in the CAPE/Shear combination. Very high freezing levels
approaching 16K feet and wetbulb zero heights of around 13.5K feet
suggest large hail is less likely due to very warm temperatures
aloft. Short-range models are in decent agreement developing storms
across northern Missouri and then tracking them southeast through the
overnight. Have increased PoPs to account for this higher
probability.

Wednesday - Friday:

Cooler weather is expected these days as Canadian high pressure
tracks into the Midwest giving us northeasterly winds. The upper
ridge will have shifted and built in the western states and this may
leave the area on the edge of the cap within northwest flow. A weak
mid-level impulse may then track through the flow and bring another
chance of precipitation to the area Thursday night into Friday.

Saturday - Monday:

Another front is expected to move through the area Saturday which
may lead to additional precipitation chances through the weekend.
But overall have kept chances low as there is a fair amount of
uncertainty in the timing of any upper-level support in the
northwest flow pattern. By the start of next week, models begin to
amplify the flow across the CONUS with the western ridge building
and an eastern trough deepening. At the surface, cooler high
pressure should settle right over the Missouri Valley and into the
Midwest leading to what looks like another period of cooler than
normal weather in the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Generally quiet weather expected through late afternoon. A cold front
will sag toward the area Tuesday evening and may be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the better coverage
expected to be across north central Missouri eastward.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 220809
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today - Tonight:

Temperatures today will likely be about 5 degrees warmer than
yesterday with similar humidity values. This is going to result in
oppressive heat across the area with heat indices approaching 110
across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. No significant
changes were made to the temperature forecast and the heat advisory
will obviously remain as is.

The main challenge with the forecast is the potential for storms to
develop along a front that will be moving into the area from the
north. Instability will be extreme with MLCAPE values around 5000
J/kg. Shear will initially be very weak but may increase and become
more favorable overnight as a weak upper shortwave moves into the
area. The very warm temperatures aloft should inhibit convection
during the afternoon. But there may be enough lift along the front
the overcome this so have maintained a very slight chance of storms
in far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas as a
result. If a storm can develop during the heat of the afternoon,
there will be a good chance for damaging downburst winds. The
probability of storms increases during the late evening and
overnight hours. The weak shortwave, in conjunction with the frontal
forcing, may provide enough lift for more widespread storms to form.
There will remain ample instability into the overnight but it will
really depend on if and how quickly stronger shear can move into the
area. With the strong instability and weak shear, the likelihood of
storms primarily being wind producers is high as there will be in
imbalance in the CAPE/Shear combination. Very high freezing levels
approaching 16K feet and wetbulb zero heights of around 13.5K feet
suggest large hail is less likely due to very warm temperatures
aloft. Short-range models are in decent agreement developing storms
across northern Missouri and then tracking them southeast through the
overnight. Have increased PoPs to account for this higher
probability.

Wednesday - Friday:

Cooler weather is expected these days as Canadian high pressure
tracks into the Midwest giving us northeasterly winds. The upper
ridge will have shifted and built in the western states and this may
leave the area on the edge of the cap within northwest flow. A weak
mid-level impulse may then track through the flow and bring another
chance of precipitation to the area Thursday night into Friday.

Saturday - Monday:

Another front is expected to move through the area Saturday which
may lead to additional precipitation chances through the weekend.
But overall have kept chances low as there is a fair amount of
uncertainty in the timing of any upper-level support in the
northwest flow pattern. By the start of next week, models begin to
amplify the flow across the CONUS with the western ridge building
and an eastern trough deepening. At the surface, cooler high
pressure should settle right over the Missouri Valley and into the
Midwest leading to what looks like another period of cooler than
normal weather in the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Generally quiet weather expected through late afternoon. A cold front
will sag toward the area Tuesday evening and may be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the better coverage
expected to be across north central Missouri eastward.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220453
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The going forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor
changes to account for near-term trends. The HRRR has continued to
indicate some showers developing over northeastern MO and west
central IL around daybreak, but recent runs have gotten more
conservative. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast given
low confidence.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 10kts is expected thru Tues
afternoon. SUS may see some FG a couple of hours before sunrise
Tues morning, however, confidence in this event is decreasing due
to greater dewpoint spread and ssely flow. There is some
indication that TSRA may form during the pre-dawn hours Tues
morning across the srn half of IA. If these TSRA do form, believe
they will remain N of UIN, but this remains uncertain. A cdfnt is
expected to approach the region Tues evening. This fnt may bring
isod to sct TSRA along and just ahead of the fnt with winds
becoming nly behind the fnt. Due to less and somewhat uncertain
coverage of TSRA, have only added VCTS for now.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the TAF period with sly to
swly winds ahead of an approaching cdfnt. This fnt is expected to
push thru the terminal late Tues night. This fnt may be
accompanied by TSRA. However, there is too much uncertainty
regarding coverage and occurrence and have kept out of TAF for now.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220453
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The going forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor
changes to account for near-term trends. The HRRR has continued to
indicate some showers developing over northeastern MO and west
central IL around daybreak, but recent runs have gotten more
conservative. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast given
low confidence.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

VFR with sly to swly winds aob 10kts is expected thru Tues
afternoon. SUS may see some FG a couple of hours before sunrise
Tues morning, however, confidence in this event is decreasing due
to greater dewpoint spread and ssely flow. There is some
indication that TSRA may form during the pre-dawn hours Tues
morning across the srn half of IA. If these TSRA do form, believe
they will remain N of UIN, but this remains uncertain. A cdfnt is
expected to approach the region Tues evening. This fnt may bring
isod to sct TSRA along and just ahead of the fnt with winds
becoming nly behind the fnt. Due to less and somewhat uncertain
coverage of TSRA, have only added VCTS for now.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the TAF period with sly to
swly winds ahead of an approaching cdfnt. This fnt is expected to
push thru the terminal late Tues night. This fnt may be
accompanied by TSRA. However, there is too much uncertainty
regarding coverage and occurrence and have kept out of TAF for now.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220450
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The biggest forecast challenges are heat Tuesday and then rain
chances later Tuesday night.

500mb ridge continues to build eastward from the Plains into the
Ozarks region through Tuesday. The eastern periphery of the ridge
does weaken Tuesday night as a shortwave drops across the Upper
Midwest. This drives a frontal boundary southward into northern
Missouri Tuesday evening. 850mb temperatures warm to near 22 degrees
Celsius Tuesday afternoon with some dew point pooling taking place
along and to the south of the front. Highest dew points look to be
north of the forecast area, but given expected surface temperatures
in the low to mid 90s will likely see heat index readings over 100
for much of the area, with highest expected across the north and
western areas where the higher dew points will reside. After
collaboration have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for the northwest
sections of the forecast area for Tuesday afternoon. As front slides
into central Missouri towards midnight will see scattered storms
ahead of it with probabilities confined to the northern portions of
the forecast area during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Aforementioned frontal boundary will push through the Ozarks and
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. Deep layer shear rather weak but a
belt of enhanced mid level winds between the southern Rockies high
and the Lower Mississippi River Valley low may be enough to combine
with higher instability to result in some storms producing stronger
wind gusts. Not anticipating any widespread severe at this point.

Front then pushes south of the area Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the north as upper flow becomes
northwesterly across the area. Next shortwave then dives out of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains towards the area. This
will bring rain chances back to the area later Friday into Saturday
with weak surface boundary hanging near the area Sunday.

Another strong shortwave trough digs across Upper Midwest/Upper
Mississippi River Valley region Monday and Tuesday. This will pull
another shot of cooler air back into the region, with temperatures
falling back to below normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday.

Southerly winds will continue with surface high pressure centered
southeast of the area.

A front will approach the region late Tuesday night bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055-066-067-
     077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KEAX 220358
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Generally quiet weather expected through late afternoon. A cold front
will sag toward the area Tuesday evening and may be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the better coverage
expected to be across north central Missouri eastward.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 220358
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Generally quiet weather expected through late afternoon. A cold front
will sag toward the area Tuesday evening and may be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the better coverage
expected to be across north central Missouri eastward.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220234
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The going forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor
changes to account for near-term trends. The HRRR has continued to
indicate some showers developing over northeastern MO and west
central IL around daybreak, but recent runs have gotten more
conservative. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast given
low confidence.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dry thru the TAF period with sly to sswly winds aob 10 kts. VFR at
all terminals except FG potential at KSUS overnight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220234
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The going forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor
changes to account for near-term trends. The HRRR has continued to
indicate some showers developing over northeastern MO and west
central IL around daybreak, but recent runs have gotten more
conservative. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast given
low confidence.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dry thru the TAF period with sly to sswly winds aob 10 kts. VFR at
all terminals except FG potential at KSUS overnight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 212343
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Quiet flying conditions next 24 hours. South winds will gradually
become southwesterly tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KSGF 212318
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The biggest forecast challenges are heat Tuesday and then rain
chances later Tuesday night.

500mb ridge continues to build eastward from the Plains into the
Ozarks region through Tuesday. The eastern periphery of the ridge
does weaken Tuesday night as a shortwave drops across the Upper
Midwest. This drives a frontal boundary southward into northern
Missouri Tuesday evening. 850mb temperatures warm to near 22 degrees
Celsius Tuesday afternoon with some dew point pooling taking place
along and to the south of the front. Highest dew points look to be
north of the forecast area, but given expected surface temperatures
in the low to mid 90s will likely see heat index readings over 100
for much of the area, with highest expected across the north and
western areas where the higher dew points will reside. After
collaboration have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for the northwest
sections of the forecast area for Tuesday afternoon. As front slides
into central Missouri towards midnight will see scattered storms
ahead of it with probabilities confined to the northern portions of
the forecast area during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Aforementioned frontal boundary will push through the Ozarks and
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. Deep layer shear rather weak but a
belt of enhanced mid level winds between the southern Rockies high
and the Lower Mississippi River Valley low may be enough to combine
with higher instability to result in some storms producing stronger
wind gusts. Not anticipating any widespread severe at this point.

Front then pushes south of the area Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the north as upper flow becomes
northwesterly across the area. Next shortwave then dives out of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains towards the area. This
will bring rain chances back to the area later Friday into Saturday
with weak surface boundary hanging near the area Sunday.

Another strong shortwave trough digs across Upper Midwest/Upper
Mississippi River Valley region Monday and Tuesday. This will pull
another shot of cooler air back into the region, with temperatures
falling back to below normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Surface high pressure to the southeast of the region will keep
winds light and southerly through the forecast period. An upper
level ridge will keep the region generally clear of any flight
concerns with the exception of a few mid and high clouds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055-066-067-
     077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 212318
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The biggest forecast challenges are heat Tuesday and then rain
chances later Tuesday night.

500mb ridge continues to build eastward from the Plains into the
Ozarks region through Tuesday. The eastern periphery of the ridge
does weaken Tuesday night as a shortwave drops across the Upper
Midwest. This drives a frontal boundary southward into northern
Missouri Tuesday evening. 850mb temperatures warm to near 22 degrees
Celsius Tuesday afternoon with some dew point pooling taking place
along and to the south of the front. Highest dew points look to be
north of the forecast area, but given expected surface temperatures
in the low to mid 90s will likely see heat index readings over 100
for much of the area, with highest expected across the north and
western areas where the higher dew points will reside. After
collaboration have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for the northwest
sections of the forecast area for Tuesday afternoon. As front slides
into central Missouri towards midnight will see scattered storms
ahead of it with probabilities confined to the northern portions of
the forecast area during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Aforementioned frontal boundary will push through the Ozarks and
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. Deep layer shear rather weak but a
belt of enhanced mid level winds between the southern Rockies high
and the Lower Mississippi River Valley low may be enough to combine
with higher instability to result in some storms producing stronger
wind gusts. Not anticipating any widespread severe at this point.

Front then pushes south of the area Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the north as upper flow becomes
northwesterly across the area. Next shortwave then dives out of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains towards the area. This
will bring rain chances back to the area later Friday into Saturday
with weak surface boundary hanging near the area Sunday.

Another strong shortwave trough digs across Upper Midwest/Upper
Mississippi River Valley region Monday and Tuesday. This will pull
another shot of cooler air back into the region, with temperatures
falling back to below normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Surface high pressure to the southeast of the region will keep
winds light and southerly through the forecast period. An upper
level ridge will keep the region generally clear of any flight
concerns with the exception of a few mid and high clouds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055-066-067-
     077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KLSX 212313
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
613 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dry thru the TAF period with sly to sswly winds aob 10 kts. VFR at
all terminals except FG potential at KSUS overnight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 212313
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
613 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dry thru the TAF period with sly to sswly winds aob 10 kts. VFR at
all terminals except FG potential at KSUS overnight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
348 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 212048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
348 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Main focus in the near-term obviously remains heat related as
the warmest airmass of the season continues to establish itself
over the area. This is all the result of broad upper-level ridging
that continues to build east across the central Plains and lower
Missouri Rvr Vly this afternoon. Latest observations showing lower
90s across most areas west of Route 65...with upper 80s now reported
to the east. Earlier adjustments to inherited heat advisory appear to
be working...however nobody looks to to escape the wrath of the heat
monster come tomorrow. More on this a little later after we tackle
the synoptic setup for the heat.

Afternoon water vapor imagery showing progressive near-zonal flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon...with broad clockwise
rotation noted further south across the central/southern High Plains
as well as the southern Rockies. Strong shortwave energy seen over
the western Dakotas this hr will ultimately flatten the upper ridge to
the south while simultaneously pushing the warmest air now seen over
the High Plains east over our area. This should occur during the
overnight hrs which will set the stage for even warmer temperatures
on Tuesday.

Fcst models to include both the GFS and WRF do suggest some
developing overrunning precip after 6z across the far northeast
tonight...however inspection of several BUFKIT soundings along with
collaboration with adjacent WFOs suggests any precip that does fall
will be widely scattered along with the potential of remaining just
virga. As a result...have elected to maintain a dry fcst with
overnight lows expected to fall into the lower to middle 70s. This
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s will make tonight
a very warm and uncomfortable one...especially for those without
access to air conditioning.

For tomorrow...850-mb thermal ridge to become firmly established over
the area as upper ridge axis gets shunted east as previously
discussed. This combined with southwesterly downslope should allow
temps to easily warm into the middle to upper 90s...with a few
readings at/slightly above the century mark not out question across
portions of northeastern Kansas. In fact...warmest values expected
across far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas where heat index
values may exceed 110F. Not surprisingly...inherited heat advisory
has been maintained through the day tomorrow.

Relief will finally be in store tomorrow night as fcst models remain
very consistent in tracking a cold front south across the area. From
this vantage point...expect front to begin moving into the area near
midnight...before steadily moving south through the remainder of the
AM hrs. As front runs into such a warm and unstable airmass...expect
developing shwrs/storms early Wednesday as front heads south. Overall
severe threat appears low this afternoon as better wind fields and
resultant deep-layer shear likely to remain north across the upper
Miss Rvr Vly. This threat if verified on the latest SPC Day 2 outlook
which maintained the 5% severe threat for areas north of the I-70
corridor. This will have to be watched however as any slow down on
frontal timing may better juxtaposition stronger winds aloft with
convergence along the main front.

Cooler...near seasonable temps expected to arrive on Wednesday
following fropa with improving conditions expected through the day.
High temps should warm into the lower to middle 80s...which will feel
much better following the current warm spell.

Next chance for organized rain/storms looks to hold off until early
Friday when Wednesday`s early morning cold front begins to lift back
north as a warm front. This feature will be accompanied by a veering
low-level jet of nearly 40 kts as northern stream wave passes to our
north and east. This should result in decent isentropic ascent which
supports chc pops right through Friday and early portions of the
upcoming weekend. Improving conditions by late Sat morning/afternoon
as upper wave exits stage right. By Sunday...both GFS and ECMWF show
redeveloping convection across the southern zones by afternoon as
another front stalls south of our area. This should maintain an
unsettled period through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KLSX 212024
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

High pressure continues to dominate with mostly clear skies and
light southerly winds. Cold front begins to move into the area
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions stay dry and VFR for
this forecast. A little fog possible at SUS overnight but the
winds may stay up just enought to prevent it.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR. Light southerly wind and some afternoon
cumulus.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 212024
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The forecast is evolving pretty much as expected today and the
trends anticipated through tomorrow still look on track. Temperatures
tonight will be milder than last night with a gradual increase in
some mid/high clouds from the northwest late tonight. Still
wondering if we might see a few high based showers with this mid
level moisture and steep lapse rates near and just after dawn
across north central/northeast Missouri, but at this point my
confidence is not high enough to add pops and later shifts will
need to keep a close eye. Otherwise the hotest day of the week is
still on tap for Tuesday with a strong low-level thermal ridge
focused across the northern half of the CWA with H85 temps above
+22 degC, favoring widespread highs in the 90s. The northwest
1/3-1/2 of the CWA should have peak heat index values above 100
degrees. If the dew points top the mid 70s across northeast
Missouri, then some locations might see heat indices hit advisory
criteria of 105+. At this point my forecast is just below that
value. Warm mid level temperatures of +12 to +14 degC should
sufficiently cap surface based convection.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

A short wave will dig across the upper-mid MS valley and into the
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will send a
formidable cold front across the region. The air mass ahead of the
front will be moist and unstable and height falls/cooling aloft
associated with the upper wave should be sufficient for scattered
thunderstorms/multicell clusters with the progressing front. The
front and precipitation threat should be south of the CWA by early
Wednesday evening. Deepening of the eastern trof and and an expansive
surface high in the wake of the cold front will bring another nice
couple of days with below average temperatures for Thursday/Friday.
However by late Friday and especially Friday night into Saturday
we will be looking at increasing precipitation chances again -
first in association with several northwest flow disturbances and
the retreating front, and then with another cold front passage.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

High pressure continues to dominate with mostly clear skies and
light southerly winds. Cold front begins to move into the area
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions stay dry and VFR for
this forecast. A little fog possible at SUS overnight but the
winds may stay up just enought to prevent it.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR. Light southerly wind and some afternoon
cumulus.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211954
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The biggest forecast challenges are heat Tuesday and then rain
chances later Tuesday night.

500mb ridge continues to build eastward from the Plains into the
Ozarks region through Tuesday. The eastern periphery of the ridge
does weaken Tuesday night as a shortwave drops across the Upper
Midwest. This drives a frontal boundary southward into northern
Missouri Tuesday evening. 850mb temperatures warm to near 22 degrees
Celsius Tuesday afternoon with some dew point pooling taking place
along and to the south of the front. Highest dew points look to be
north of the forecast area, but given expected surface temperatures
in the low to mid 90s will likely see heat index readings over 100
for much of the area, with highest expected across the north and
western areas where the higher dew points will reside. After
collaboration have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for the northwest
sections of the forecast area for Tuesday afternoon. As front slides
into central Missouri towards midnight will see scattered storms
ahead of it with probabilities confined to the northern portions of
the forecast area during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Aforementioned frontal boundary will push through the Ozarks and
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. Deep layer shear rather weak but a
belt of enhanced mid level winds between the southern Rockies high
and the Lower Mississippi River Valley low may be enough to combine
with higher instability to result in some storms producing stronger
wind gusts. Not anticipating any widespread severe at this point.

Front then pushes south of the area Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the north as upper flow becomes
northwesterly across the area. Next shortwave then dives out of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains towards the area. This
will bring rain chances back to the area later Friday into Saturday
with weak surface boundary hanging near the area Sunday.

Another strong shortwave trough digs across Upper Midwest/Upper
Mississippi River Valley region Monday and Tuesday. This will pull
another shot of cooler air back into the region, with temperatures
falling back to below normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cloud deck developed across
northwestern Arkansas into far southern Missouri this morning and
is slowly moving east and may affect the Springfield and Branson
areas this afternoon. This cloud deck will begin to mix out and lift
early this afternoon, and only expect scattered cloud cover as
this cloud deck dissipates as it moves east.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning, as
south to southwesterly winds occur.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055-066-067-
     077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211954
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The biggest forecast challenges are heat Tuesday and then rain
chances later Tuesday night.

500mb ridge continues to build eastward from the Plains into the
Ozarks region through Tuesday. The eastern periphery of the ridge
does weaken Tuesday night as a shortwave drops across the Upper
Midwest. This drives a frontal boundary southward into northern
Missouri Tuesday evening. 850mb temperatures warm to near 22 degrees
Celsius Tuesday afternoon with some dew point pooling taking place
along and to the south of the front. Highest dew points look to be
north of the forecast area, but given expected surface temperatures
in the low to mid 90s will likely see heat index readings over 100
for much of the area, with highest expected across the north and
western areas where the higher dew points will reside. After
collaboration have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for the northwest
sections of the forecast area for Tuesday afternoon. As front slides
into central Missouri towards midnight will see scattered storms
ahead of it with probabilities confined to the northern portions of
the forecast area during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Aforementioned frontal boundary will push through the Ozarks and
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. Deep layer shear rather weak but a
belt of enhanced mid level winds between the southern Rockies high
and the Lower Mississippi River Valley low may be enough to combine
with higher instability to result in some storms producing stronger
wind gusts. Not anticipating any widespread severe at this point.

Front then pushes south of the area Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the north as upper flow becomes
northwesterly across the area. Next shortwave then dives out of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains towards the area. This
will bring rain chances back to the area later Friday into Saturday
with weak surface boundary hanging near the area Sunday.

Another strong shortwave trough digs across Upper Midwest/Upper
Mississippi River Valley region Monday and Tuesday. This will pull
another shot of cooler air back into the region, with temperatures
falling back to below normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cloud deck developed across
northwestern Arkansas into far southern Missouri this morning and
is slowly moving east and may affect the Springfield and Branson
areas this afternoon. This cloud deck will begin to mix out and lift
early this afternoon, and only expect scattered cloud cover as
this cloud deck dissipates as it moves east.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning, as
south to southwesterly winds occur.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055-066-067-
     077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211954
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The biggest forecast challenges are heat Tuesday and then rain
chances later Tuesday night.

500mb ridge continues to build eastward from the Plains into the
Ozarks region through Tuesday. The eastern periphery of the ridge
does weaken Tuesday night as a shortwave drops across the Upper
Midwest. This drives a frontal boundary southward into northern
Missouri Tuesday evening. 850mb temperatures warm to near 22 degrees
Celsius Tuesday afternoon with some dew point pooling taking place
along and to the south of the front. Highest dew points look to be
north of the forecast area, but given expected surface temperatures
in the low to mid 90s will likely see heat index readings over 100
for much of the area, with highest expected across the north and
western areas where the higher dew points will reside. After
collaboration have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for the northwest
sections of the forecast area for Tuesday afternoon. As front slides
into central Missouri towards midnight will see scattered storms
ahead of it with probabilities confined to the northern portions of
the forecast area during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Aforementioned frontal boundary will push through the Ozarks and
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. Deep layer shear rather weak but a
belt of enhanced mid level winds between the southern Rockies high
and the Lower Mississippi River Valley low may be enough to combine
with higher instability to result in some storms producing stronger
wind gusts. Not anticipating any widespread severe at this point.

Front then pushes south of the area Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the north as upper flow becomes
northwesterly across the area. Next shortwave then dives out of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains towards the area. This
will bring rain chances back to the area later Friday into Saturday
with weak surface boundary hanging near the area Sunday.

Another strong shortwave trough digs across Upper Midwest/Upper
Mississippi River Valley region Monday and Tuesday. This will pull
another shot of cooler air back into the region, with temperatures
falling back to below normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cloud deck developed across
northwestern Arkansas into far southern Missouri this morning and
is slowly moving east and may affect the Springfield and Branson
areas this afternoon. This cloud deck will begin to mix out and lift
early this afternoon, and only expect scattered cloud cover as
this cloud deck dissipates as it moves east.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning, as
south to southwesterly winds occur.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055-066-067-
     077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211954
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The biggest forecast challenges are heat Tuesday and then rain
chances later Tuesday night.

500mb ridge continues to build eastward from the Plains into the
Ozarks region through Tuesday. The eastern periphery of the ridge
does weaken Tuesday night as a shortwave drops across the Upper
Midwest. This drives a frontal boundary southward into northern
Missouri Tuesday evening. 850mb temperatures warm to near 22 degrees
Celsius Tuesday afternoon with some dew point pooling taking place
along and to the south of the front. Highest dew points look to be
north of the forecast area, but given expected surface temperatures
in the low to mid 90s will likely see heat index readings over 100
for much of the area, with highest expected across the north and
western areas where the higher dew points will reside. After
collaboration have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for the northwest
sections of the forecast area for Tuesday afternoon. As front slides
into central Missouri towards midnight will see scattered storms
ahead of it with probabilities confined to the northern portions of
the forecast area during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Aforementioned frontal boundary will push through the Ozarks and
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. Deep layer shear rather weak but a
belt of enhanced mid level winds between the southern Rockies high
and the Lower Mississippi River Valley low may be enough to combine
with higher instability to result in some storms producing stronger
wind gusts. Not anticipating any widespread severe at this point.

Front then pushes south of the area Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the north as upper flow becomes
northwesterly across the area. Next shortwave then dives out of the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains towards the area. This
will bring rain chances back to the area later Friday into Saturday
with weak surface boundary hanging near the area Sunday.

Another strong shortwave trough digs across Upper Midwest/Upper
Mississippi River Valley region Monday and Tuesday. This will pull
another shot of cooler air back into the region, with temperatures
falling back to below normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cloud deck developed across
northwestern Arkansas into far southern Missouri this morning and
is slowly moving east and may affect the Springfield and Branson
areas this afternoon. This cloud deck will begin to mix out and lift
early this afternoon, and only expect scattered cloud cover as
this cloud deck dissipates as it moves east.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning, as
south to southwesterly winds occur.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055-066-067-
     077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211721
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The main weather story for today and Tuesday will be warmer
temperatures and more humidity followed by decent rain chances for
the middle of the week.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the
southern and central Plains region through Tuesday. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer today and almost near seasonable
averages for late July. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
lower to middle 90s. Heat index values will between 100 to 104 on
Tuesday. It will definitely be some of the warmest weather so far
this summer but not quite to heat advisory criteria. No headlines needed
for this forecast update.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave will ride over the ridge and through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. This will bring down a front and
a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening. No severe weather is expected. Behind
the front...temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Thursday
and Friday

Temperatures look seasonably warm through the weekend with
another front moving into the area over the weekend. This will
bring another chance for rain. Long range guidance continue to
indicate a deep trough developing over the Midwest and eastern
U.S. early next week which will bring much cooler temperatures
once again to the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cloud deck developed across
northwestern Arkansas into far southern Missouri this morning and
is slowly moving east and may affect the Springfield and Branson
areas this afternoon. This cloud deck will begin to mix out and lift
early this afternoon, and only expect scattered cloud cover as
this cloud deck dissipates as it moves east.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning, as
south to southwesterly winds occur.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211721
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The main weather story for today and Tuesday will be warmer
temperatures and more humidity followed by decent rain chances for
the middle of the week.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the
southern and central Plains region through Tuesday. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer today and almost near seasonable
averages for late July. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
lower to middle 90s. Heat index values will between 100 to 104 on
Tuesday. It will definitely be some of the warmest weather so far
this summer but not quite to heat advisory criteria. No headlines needed
for this forecast update.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave will ride over the ridge and through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. This will bring down a front and
a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening. No severe weather is expected. Behind
the front...temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Thursday
and Friday

Temperatures look seasonably warm through the weekend with
another front moving into the area over the weekend. This will
bring another chance for rain. Long range guidance continue to
indicate a deep trough developing over the Midwest and eastern
U.S. early next week which will bring much cooler temperatures
once again to the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cloud deck developed across
northwestern Arkansas into far southern Missouri this morning and
is slowly moving east and may affect the Springfield and Branson
areas this afternoon. This cloud deck will begin to mix out and lift
early this afternoon, and only expect scattered cloud cover as
this cloud deck dissipates as it moves east.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning, as
south to southwesterly winds occur.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Temps off and running this morning with latest observations already
yielding mid/upper-70s across much of the area at 9 AM. Later
today...strong thermal advection in the 925-850 hPa layer should
result in lower to middle 90s along/west of the Route 65 corridor
with low 90s further to the east. This combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values in the upper
90s to lower 100s west of Route 65...with mid to upper 90s east.
Based on these expectations...decided to delay the heat advisory for
eastern portions of the fcst area until Tuesday when heat indices
values are expected to better approach heat advisory thresholds.
Further west...inherited heat advisory for today and tomorrow remains
unchanged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Temps off and running this morning with latest observations already
yielding mid/upper-70s across much of the area at 9 AM. Later
today...strong thermal advection in the 925-850 hPa layer should
result in lower to middle 90s along/west of the Route 65 corridor
with low 90s further to the east. This combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values in the upper
90s to lower 100s west of Route 65...with mid to upper 90s east.
Based on these expectations...decided to delay the heat advisory for
eastern portions of the fcst area until Tuesday when heat indices
values are expected to better approach heat advisory thresholds.
Further west...inherited heat advisory for today and tomorrow remains
unchanged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Temps off and running this morning with latest observations already
yielding mid/upper-70s across much of the area at 9 AM. Later
today...strong thermal advection in the 925-850 hPa layer should
result in lower to middle 90s along/west of the Route 65 corridor
with low 90s further to the east. This combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values in the upper
90s to lower 100s west of Route 65...with mid to upper 90s east.
Based on these expectations...decided to delay the heat advisory for
eastern portions of the fcst area until Tuesday when heat indices
values are expected to better approach heat advisory thresholds.
Further west...inherited heat advisory for today and tomorrow remains
unchanged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211719
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Temps off and running this morning with latest observations already
yielding mid/upper-70s across much of the area at 9 AM. Later
today...strong thermal advection in the 925-850 hPa layer should
result in lower to middle 90s along/west of the Route 65 corridor
with low 90s further to the east. This combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values in the upper
90s to lower 100s west of Route 65...with mid to upper 90s east.
Based on these expectations...decided to delay the heat advisory for
eastern portions of the fcst area until Tuesday when heat indices
values are expected to better approach heat advisory thresholds.
Further west...inherited heat advisory for today and tomorrow remains
unchanged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions to dominate through the fcst period as broad upper-
level ridging builds over the area. South winds gusting as high as 22
kts this afternoon will begin to subside later this evening. Mid
clouds centered around 15kft may invade after 6z tonight as a weak
upper disturbance passes to our north. Winds will again be on the
increase later Tuesday morning with gusts again reaching/exceeding 20 kts
or so during the afternoon hrs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KLSX 211653
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Mercury will rise a few more degrees today compared to yesterday
as influence of the surface ridge across the Ohio River Valley
weakens and is replaced by southerly flow.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Beginning to feel like a broken record here, but didn`t really
make many changes to the forecast. Models continue to be in good
agreement with a few seasonably "hot" days early this week thanks
to the upper level ridge nosing into the Midwest, followed by
cooler temperatures the second half of the week as the flow once
again becomes northwest aloft. The transition will be marked by a
cold front and chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday
across the area.

The front will move back into the CWA by this weekend with chances
of thunderstorms littering the extended forecast as northwest flow
shortwaves interact with this frontal boundary. Temperatures should
slowly return to normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

High pressure continues to dominate with mostly clear skies and
light southerly winds. Cold front begins to move into the area
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions stay dry and VFR for
this forecast. A little fog possible at SUS overnight but the
winds may stay up just enought to prevent it.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR. Light southerly wind and some afternoon
cumulus.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 211653
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Mercury will rise a few more degrees today compared to yesterday
as influence of the surface ridge across the Ohio River Valley
weakens and is replaced by southerly flow.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Beginning to feel like a broken record here, but didn`t really
make many changes to the forecast. Models continue to be in good
agreement with a few seasonably "hot" days early this week thanks
to the upper level ridge nosing into the Midwest, followed by
cooler temperatures the second half of the week as the flow once
again becomes northwest aloft. The transition will be marked by a
cold front and chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday
across the area.

The front will move back into the CWA by this weekend with chances
of thunderstorms littering the extended forecast as northwest flow
shortwaves interact with this frontal boundary. Temperatures should
slowly return to normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

High pressure continues to dominate with mostly clear skies and
light southerly winds. Cold front begins to move into the area
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions stay dry and VFR for
this forecast. A little fog possible at SUS overnight but the
winds may stay up just enought to prevent it.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR. Light southerly wind and some afternoon
cumulus.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 211653
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Mercury will rise a few more degrees today compared to yesterday
as influence of the surface ridge across the Ohio River Valley
weakens and is replaced by southerly flow.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Beginning to feel like a broken record here, but didn`t really
make many changes to the forecast. Models continue to be in good
agreement with a few seasonably "hot" days early this week thanks
to the upper level ridge nosing into the Midwest, followed by
cooler temperatures the second half of the week as the flow once
again becomes northwest aloft. The transition will be marked by a
cold front and chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday
across the area.

The front will move back into the CWA by this weekend with chances
of thunderstorms littering the extended forecast as northwest flow
shortwaves interact with this frontal boundary. Temperatures should
slowly return to normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

High pressure continues to dominate with mostly clear skies and
light southerly winds. Cold front begins to move into the area
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions stay dry and VFR for
this forecast. A little fog possible at SUS overnight but the
winds may stay up just enought to prevent it.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR. Light southerly wind and some afternoon
cumulus.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 211653
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1153 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Mercury will rise a few more degrees today compared to yesterday
as influence of the surface ridge across the Ohio River Valley
weakens and is replaced by southerly flow.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Beginning to feel like a broken record here, but didn`t really
make many changes to the forecast. Models continue to be in good
agreement with a few seasonably "hot" days early this week thanks
to the upper level ridge nosing into the Midwest, followed by
cooler temperatures the second half of the week as the flow once
again becomes northwest aloft. The transition will be marked by a
cold front and chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday
across the area.

The front will move back into the CWA by this weekend with chances
of thunderstorms littering the extended forecast as northwest flow
shortwaves interact with this frontal boundary. Temperatures should
slowly return to normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

High pressure continues to dominate with mostly clear skies and
light southerly winds. Cold front begins to move into the area
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions stay dry and VFR for
this forecast. A little fog possible at SUS overnight but the
winds may stay up just enought to prevent it.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR. Light southerly wind and some afternoon
cumulus.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211438
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Temps off and running this morning with latest observations already
yielding mid/upper-70s across much of the area at 9 AM. Later
today...strong thermal advection in the 925-850 hPa layer should
result in lower to middle 90s along/west of the Route 65 corridor
with low 90s further to the east. This combined with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values in the upper
90s to lower 100s west of Route 65...with mid to upper 90s east.
Based on these expectations...decided to delay the heat advisory for
eastern portions of the fcst area until Tuesday when heat indices
values are expected to better approach heat advisory thresholds.
Further west...inherited heat advisory for today and tomorrow remains
unchanged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the period with a few-sct cirrus expected
over the next 24 hours. Winds are out of the south this morning
around 10kts but will pick up to near 15kts with gusts 20-25kts by
late this morning thru the afternoon. This evening winds will subside
to around 10kts while remaining out of the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.

     HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...32
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KLSX 211144
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
644 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Mercury will rise a few more degrees today compared to yesterday
as influence of the surface ridge across the Ohio River Valley
weakens and is replaced by southerly flow.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Beginning to feel like a broken record here, but didn`t really
make many changes to the forecast. Models continue to be in good
agreement with a few seasonably "hot" days early this week thanks
to the upper level ridge nosing into the Midwest, followed by
cooler temperatures the second half of the week as the flow once
again becomes northwest aloft. The transition will be marked by a
cold front and chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday
across the area.

The front will move back into the CWA by this weekend with chances
of thunderstorms littering the extended forecast as northwest flow
shortwaves interact with this frontal boundary. Temperatures should
slowly return to normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

CVKING
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

With surface ridge off to the east, will see south winds pickup a
bit today with just a few diurnal cu developing. Then cu to
diminish by sunset once again. Some patchy light fog at KUIN, so
added tempo mention through 13z Monday.

Specifics for KSTL:
With surface ridge off to the east, will see south winds pickup a
bit today with just a few diurnal cu developing. Then cu to
diminish by sunset once again.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211114 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The main weather story for today and Tuesday will be warmer
temperatures and more humidity followed by decent rain chances for
the middle of the week.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the
southern and central Plains region through Tuesday. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer today and almost near seasonable
averages for late July. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
lower to middle 90s. Heat index values will between 100 to 104 on
Tuesday. It will definitely be some of the warmest weather so far
this summer but not quite to heat advisory criteria. No headlines needed
for this forecast update.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave will ride over the ridge and through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. This will bring down a front and
a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening. No severe weather is expected. Behind
the front...temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Thursday
and Friday

Temperatures look seasonably warm through the weekend with
another front moving into the area over the weekend. This will
bring another chance for rain. Long range guidance continue to
indicate a deep trough developing over the Midwest and eastern
U.S. early next week which will bring much cooler temperatures
once again to the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond. A
few diurnally driven cumulus should develop during the late
morning/afternoon hours, dissipating after sunset. Winds will be
south/southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan





000
FXUS63 KEAX 211043
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the period with a few-sct cirrus expected
over the next 24 hours. Winds are out of the south this morning
around 10kts but will pick up to near 15kts with gusts 20-25kts by
late this morning thru the afternoon. This evening winds will subside
to around 10kts while remaining out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211043
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the period with a few-sct cirrus expected
over the next 24 hours. Winds are out of the south this morning
around 10kts but will pick up to near 15kts with gusts 20-25kts by
late this morning thru the afternoon. This evening winds will subside
to around 10kts while remaining out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210758
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210758
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Hot and humid conditions will take hold of the region these days
with the heat building over northwestern and west central MO and
northeastern and east central KS today. This heat will then spread
eastward and intensify on Tuesday. Will keep the heat advisory as is
for a few reasons despite much of the area only seeing heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s today. Despite being in the last third of
July (where has the time gone?) the Kansas City area has seen a
fraction of the 90 degree days we usually see through this time of
year, 4 compared to 13 normally. Second, there have only been a few
days, where the heat indices got to or around 100. Third, through
July 19th, we`ve had the 2nd coolest July on record after a stretch
where there were 5 days in a row with highs below 80 degrees. While
these stats are for the Kansas City area, they`re applicable to our
eastern zones as well. Given the cool year so far and the lack of any
stretch of sustained hot weather, it`s reasonable to assume much of
the area isn`t used to the kind of heat we`ll experience over the
next two days. With the lack of acclimatization, we`ll keep the heat
advisory going and add some detail in the segments describing that
Tuesday will be the much hotter day for areas from Kirksville to
Chillicothe and Sedalia to Butler.

Meteorologically, Tuesday will be the much hotter day as
temperatures aloft climb to potentially as high as 28C at 850mb with
much of the area likely to see 24C to 26C air aloft. This suggest
temperatures should climb into the upper 90s. Additionally, a front
approaching the area from the north will likely lead to prefrontal
maximizing of temperatures due to compressional warming.

The very warm temperatures aloft will likely inhibit precipitation
during the day as the front approaches. However, the better chances
should come during the overnight hours as a weak upper wave may cool
temperatures aloft enough that combined with forcing along the front
may lead to storms. Still, at this point can`t justify going higher
than 50% due to the warm air aloft.

Wednesday:

Cooler weather will fill into the area behind the front and highs
should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the previous day. The
front may continue to lead to scattered showers and storms across
the southern forecast area but these are expected to push south of
the area by the afternoon hours.

Thursday - Sunday:

The upper ridge will shift back to the southwestern US through the
extended portion of the forecast. The good news from this is that
high temperatures will be closer to or below normal. However, with
northwest flow comes the chance that any weak impulse moving through
the flow may trigger convection. So through much of the extended
there is at least a slight chance for showers and storms. This could
also lead to cooler temperatures on any given day if precipitation
occurs or lingers.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KSGF 210733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The main weather story for today and Tuesday will be warmer
temperatures and more humidity followed by decent rain chances for
the middle of the week.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the
southern and central Plains region through Tuesday. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer today and almost near seasonable
averages for late July. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
lower to middle 90s. Heat index values will between 100 to 104 on
Tuesday. It will definitely be some of the warmest weather so far
this summer but not quite to heat advisory criteria. No headlines needed
for this forecast update.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave will ride over the ridge and through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. This will bring down a front and
a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening. No severe weather is expected. Behind
the front...temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Thursday
and Friday

Temperatures look seasonably warm through the weekend with
another front moving into the area over the weekend. This will
bring another chance for rain. Long range guidance continue to
indicate a deep trough developing over the Midwest and eastern
U.S. early next week which will bring much cooler temperatures
once again to the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressure positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The main weather story for today and Tuesday will be warmer
temperatures and more humidity followed by decent rain chances for
the middle of the week.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the
southern and central Plains region through Tuesday. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer today and almost near seasonable
averages for late July. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
lower to middle 90s. Heat index values will between 100 to 104 on
Tuesday. It will definitely be some of the warmest weather so far
this summer but not quite to heat advisory criteria. No headlines needed
for this forecast update.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave will ride over the ridge and through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. This will bring down a front and
a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening. No severe weather is expected. Behind
the front...temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Thursday
and Friday

Temperatures look seasonably warm through the weekend with
another front moving into the area over the weekend. This will
bring another chance for rain. Long range guidance continue to
indicate a deep trough developing over the Midwest and eastern
U.S. early next week which will bring much cooler temperatures
once again to the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressure positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The main weather story for today and Tuesday will be warmer
temperatures and more humidity followed by decent rain chances for
the middle of the week.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the
southern and central Plains region through Tuesday. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer today and almost near seasonable
averages for late July. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
lower to middle 90s. Heat index values will between 100 to 104 on
Tuesday. It will definitely be some of the warmest weather so far
this summer but not quite to heat advisory criteria. No headlines needed
for this forecast update.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave will ride over the ridge and through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. This will bring down a front and
a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening. No severe weather is expected. Behind
the front...temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Thursday
and Friday

Temperatures look seasonably warm through the weekend with
another front moving into the area over the weekend. This will
bring another chance for rain. Long range guidance continue to
indicate a deep trough developing over the Midwest and eastern
U.S. early next week which will bring much cooler temperatures
once again to the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressure positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The main weather story for today and Tuesday will be warmer
temperatures and more humidity followed by decent rain chances for
the middle of the week.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the
southern and central Plains region through Tuesday. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer today and almost near seasonable
averages for late July. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
lower to middle 90s. Heat index values will between 100 to 104 on
Tuesday. It will definitely be some of the warmest weather so far
this summer but not quite to heat advisory criteria. No headlines needed
for this forecast update.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave will ride over the ridge and through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. This will bring down a front and
a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening. No severe weather is expected. Behind
the front...temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Thursday
and Friday

Temperatures look seasonably warm through the weekend with
another front moving into the area over the weekend. This will
bring another chance for rain. Long range guidance continue to
indicate a deep trough developing over the Midwest and eastern
U.S. early next week which will bring much cooler temperatures
once again to the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressure positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KLSX 210731
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
231 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Mercury will rise a few more degrees today compared to yesterday
as influence of the surface ridge across the Ohio River Valley
weakens and is replaced by southerly flow.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Beginning to feel like a broken record here, but didn`t really
make many changes to the forecast. Models continue to be in good
agreement with a few seasonably "hot" days early this week thanks
to the upper level ridge nosing into the Midwest, followed by
cooler temperatures the second half of the week as the flow once
again becomes northwest aloft. The transition will be marked by a
cold front and chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday
across the area.

The front will move back into the CWA by this weekend with chances
of thunderstorms littering the extended forecast as northwest flow
shortwaves interact with this frontal boundary. Temperatures should
slowly return to normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

High pressure slowly shifts east through the forecast. Southerly
wind pick up just a bit with afternoon cumulus the highlight. Some
morning fog possible at SUS and CPS, but current temp/dew pt
spreads are 5 - 10 degrees more tonight so will leave out.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR with light southerly wind.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  73  95  76 /   0   0   5  40
Quincy          89  70  94  71 /   0   5  10  60
Columbia        91  70  95  72 /   0   5   5  50
Jefferson City  92  70  96  73 /   0   5   5  50
Salem           89  68  92  71 /   0   0   5  20
Farmington      88  65  91  70 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 210731
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
231 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Mercury will rise a few more degrees today compared to yesterday
as influence of the surface ridge across the Ohio River Valley
weakens and is replaced by southerly flow.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Beginning to feel like a broken record here, but didn`t really
make many changes to the forecast. Models continue to be in good
agreement with a few seasonably "hot" days early this week thanks
to the upper level ridge nosing into the Midwest, followed by
cooler temperatures the second half of the week as the flow once
again becomes northwest aloft. The transition will be marked by a
cold front and chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday
across the area.

The front will move back into the CWA by this weekend with chances
of thunderstorms littering the extended forecast as northwest flow
shortwaves interact with this frontal boundary. Temperatures should
slowly return to normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

High pressure slowly shifts east through the forecast. Southerly
wind pick up just a bit with afternoon cumulus the highlight. Some
morning fog possible at SUS and CPS, but current temp/dew pt
spreads are 5 - 10 degrees more tonight so will leave out.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR with light southerly wind.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  73  95  76 /   0   0   5  40
Quincy          89  70  94  71 /   0   5  10  60
Columbia        91  70  95  72 /   0   5   5  50
Jefferson City  92  70  96  73 /   0   5   5  50
Salem           89  68  92  71 /   0   0   5  20
Farmington      88  65  91  70 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 210527
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressure positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210527
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressure positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210527
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressure positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 210527
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressure positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KEAX 210456
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 210456
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 210456
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 210456
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will become gusty by mid-morning before speeds reduce around sunset.
Otherwise, a gradual increase in some mid/high clouds is anticipated.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KLSX 210444
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Another clear/calm night in store with slowly increasing winds out
of the south across central/northeast Missouri overnight. Low
temperatures for now still look on track as dayshift forecaster
leaned toward cooler guidance across eastern Ozarks/southwest
Illinois where impacts of sfc ridge axis are still being felt.
Only real change to going forecast was to add some patchy fog
across those same areas where temps should approach or exceed
crossover temperatures due to light winds/clear skies...similar
conditions as observed this morning.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The main weather story for the next few days will be the return of
summer heat. Southerly flow across the region today has brought
warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, with RH noticeably
higher today. This upward trend will continue through Tuesday as
the upper high/ridge currently centered in NM amplifies and builds
northeastward through the Nation`s midsection. Monday looks around
normal for this time of the year. Tuesday looks seasonably hot
with a pronounced low-level thermal ridge centered through the
northern half of the CWA with H85 temps of +22 to +24 degC, mid
levels temps of +12 to +14 degC and H5 heights of 594+ dm, all
supporting high temperatures well into the 90s. These warm
temperatures aloft are expected to effectively cap any surface
based storm development. We might need to keep an eye on a few
high-based showers at 10 kft or higher on Tuesday morning across
northern sections of CWA associated with a pocket of moisture
aloft and steep lapse rates.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The return of summer heat will be short-lived however. A new
longwave trof will develop across the eastern U.S. during the
later part of the upcoming week in association with large scale
amplification across the Canada into the northern portion of the
U.S., with an initial short wave trof digging through the Great
Lakes-mid/uppper MS Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. This wave will
send a cold front across the region in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
time frame. Height falls/cooling aloft, convergence along the
front, and good moisture and instability should be sufficient for
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures
and dry weather will then prevail in the wake of the front
Thursday/Friday as surface high pressure dominates the region. The
combination of the northward returning front on Friday night and
then another cold front Saturday-Sunday will bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

High pressure slowly shifts east through the forecast. Southerly
wind pick up just a bit with afternoon cumulus the highlight. Some
morning fog possible at SUS and CPS, but current temp/dew pt
spreads are 5 - 10 degrees more tonight so will leave out.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR with light southerly wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 210444
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Another clear/calm night in store with slowly increasing winds out
of the south across central/northeast Missouri overnight. Low
temperatures for now still look on track as dayshift forecaster
leaned toward cooler guidance across eastern Ozarks/southwest
Illinois where impacts of sfc ridge axis are still being felt.
Only real change to going forecast was to add some patchy fog
across those same areas where temps should approach or exceed
crossover temperatures due to light winds/clear skies...similar
conditions as observed this morning.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The main weather story for the next few days will be the return of
summer heat. Southerly flow across the region today has brought
warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, with RH noticeably
higher today. This upward trend will continue through Tuesday as
the upper high/ridge currently centered in NM amplifies and builds
northeastward through the Nation`s midsection. Monday looks around
normal for this time of the year. Tuesday looks seasonably hot
with a pronounced low-level thermal ridge centered through the
northern half of the CWA with H85 temps of +22 to +24 degC, mid
levels temps of +12 to +14 degC and H5 heights of 594+ dm, all
supporting high temperatures well into the 90s. These warm
temperatures aloft are expected to effectively cap any surface
based storm development. We might need to keep an eye on a few
high-based showers at 10 kft or higher on Tuesday morning across
northern sections of CWA associated with a pocket of moisture
aloft and steep lapse rates.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The return of summer heat will be short-lived however. A new
longwave trof will develop across the eastern U.S. during the
later part of the upcoming week in association with large scale
amplification across the Canada into the northern portion of the
U.S., with an initial short wave trof digging through the Great
Lakes-mid/uppper MS Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. This wave will
send a cold front across the region in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
time frame. Height falls/cooling aloft, convergence along the
front, and good moisture and instability should be sufficient for
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures
and dry weather will then prevail in the wake of the front
Thursday/Friday as surface high pressure dominates the region. The
combination of the northward returning front on Friday night and
then another cold front Saturday-Sunday will bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

High pressure slowly shifts east through the forecast. Southerly
wind pick up just a bit with afternoon cumulus the highlight. Some
morning fog possible at SUS and CPS, but current temp/dew pt
spreads are 5 - 10 degrees more tonight so will leave out.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR with light southerly wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 210236
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
936 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Another clear/calm night in store with slowly increasing winds out
of the south across central/northeast Missouri overnight. Low
temperatures for now still look on track as dayshift forecaster
leaned toward cooler guidance across eastern Ozarks/southwest
Illinois where impacts of sfc ridge axis are still being felt.
Only real change to going forecast was to add some patchy fog
across those same areas where temps should approach or exceed
crossover temperatures due to light winds/clear skies...similar
conditions as observed this morning.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The main weather story for the next few days will be the return of
summer heat. Southerly flow across the region today has brought
warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, with RH noticeably
higher today. This upward trend will continue through Tuesday as
the upper high/ridge currently centered in NM amplifies and builds
northeastward through the Nation`s midsection. Monday looks around
normal for this time of the year. Tuesday looks seasonably hot
with a pronounced low-level thermal ridge centered through the
northern half of the CWA with H85 temps of +22 to +24 degC, mid
levels temps of +12 to +14 degC and H5 heights of 594+ dm, all
supporting high temperatures well into the 90s. These warm
temperatures aloft are expected to effectively cap any surface
based storm development. We might need to keep an eye on a few
high-based showers at 10 kft or higher on Tuesday morning across
northern sections of CWA associated with a pocket of moisture
aloft and steep lapse rates.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The return of summer heat will be short-lived however. A new
longwave trof will develop across the eastern U.S. during the
later part of the upcoming week in association with large scale
amplification across the Canada into the northern portion of the
U.S., with an initial short wave trof digging through the Great
Lakes-mid/uppper MS Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. This wave will
send a cold front across the region in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
time frame. Height falls/cooling aloft, convergence along the
front, and good moisture and instability should be sufficient for
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures
and dry weather will then prevail in the wake of the front
Thursday/Friday as surface high pressure dominates the region. The
combination of the northward returning front on Friday night and
then another cold front Saturday-Sunday will bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

High pressure will remain in charge of the weather. The HI will
gradually shift east allowing for a more southerly winds before
the next cold front which arrives Tuesday night/Wednesday moning.

Specifics for KSTL:
With HI pressure in charge, expect afternoon cumulus with  alight
south wind. JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 210236
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
936 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Another clear/calm night in store with slowly increasing winds out
of the south across central/northeast Missouri overnight. Low
temperatures for now still look on track as dayshift forecaster
leaned toward cooler guidance across eastern Ozarks/southwest
Illinois where impacts of sfc ridge axis are still being felt.
Only real change to going forecast was to add some patchy fog
across those same areas where temps should approach or exceed
crossover temperatures due to light winds/clear skies...similar
conditions as observed this morning.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The main weather story for the next few days will be the return of
summer heat. Southerly flow across the region today has brought
warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, with RH noticeably
higher today. This upward trend will continue through Tuesday as
the upper high/ridge currently centered in NM amplifies and builds
northeastward through the Nation`s midsection. Monday looks around
normal for this time of the year. Tuesday looks seasonably hot
with a pronounced low-level thermal ridge centered through the
northern half of the CWA with H85 temps of +22 to +24 degC, mid
levels temps of +12 to +14 degC and H5 heights of 594+ dm, all
supporting high temperatures well into the 90s. These warm
temperatures aloft are expected to effectively cap any surface
based storm development. We might need to keep an eye on a few
high-based showers at 10 kft or higher on Tuesday morning across
northern sections of CWA associated with a pocket of moisture
aloft and steep lapse rates.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The return of summer heat will be short-lived however. A new
longwave trof will develop across the eastern U.S. during the
later part of the upcoming week in association with large scale
amplification across the Canada into the northern portion of the
U.S., with an initial short wave trof digging through the Great
Lakes-mid/uppper MS Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. This wave will
send a cold front across the region in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
time frame. Height falls/cooling aloft, convergence along the
front, and good moisture and instability should be sufficient for
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures
and dry weather will then prevail in the wake of the front
Thursday/Friday as surface high pressure dominates the region. The
combination of the northward returning front on Friday night and
then another cold front Saturday-Sunday will bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

High pressure will remain in charge of the weather. The HI will
gradually shift east allowing for a more southerly winds before
the next cold front which arrives Tuesday night/Wednesday moning.

Specifics for KSTL:
With HI pressure in charge, expect afternoon cumulus with  alight
south wind. JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 202358
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressures positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 202358
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressures positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 202358
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressures positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 202358
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressures positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KLSX 202324
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
624 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The main weather story for the next few days will be the return of
summer heat. Southerly flow across the region today has brought
warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, with RH noticeably
higher today. This upward trend will continue through Tuesday as
the upper high/ridge currently centered in NM amplifies and builds
northeastward through the Nation`s midsection. Monday looks around
normal for this time of the year. Tuesday looks seasonably hot
with a pronounced low-level thermal ridge centered through the
northern half of the CWA with H85 temps of +22 to +24 degC, mid
levels temps of +12 to +14 degC and H5 heights of 594+ dm, all
supporting high temperatures well into the 90s. These warm
temperatures aloft are expected to effectively cap any surface
based storm development. We might need to keep an eye on a few
high-based showers at 10 kft or higher on Tuesday morning across
northern sections of CWA associated with a pocket of moisture
aloft and steep lapse rates.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The return of summer heat will be short-lived however. A new
longwave trof will develop across the eastern U.S. during the
later part of the upcoming week in association with large scale
amplification across the Canada into the northern portion of the
U.S., with an initial short wave trof digging through the Great
Lakes-mid/uppper MS Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. This wave will
send a cold front across the region in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
time frame. Height falls/cooling aloft, convergence along the
front, and good moisture and instability should be sufficient for
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures
and dry weather will then prevail in the wake of the front
Thursday/Friday as surface high pressure dominates the region. The
combination of the northward returning front on Friday night and
then another cold front Saturday-Sunday will bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

High pressure will remain in charge of the weather. The HI will
gradually shift east allowing for a more southerly winds before
the next cold front which arrives Tuesday night/Wednesday moning.

Specifics for KSTL:
With HI pressure in charge, expect afternoon cumulus with  alight
south wind. JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 202316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue at terminals. Southerly winds
will be occasionally gusty during the daylight hours on Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 202001
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202001
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202001
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 202001
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Main concern in the short term will be heat indices both Monday and
Tuesday as the upper high building across the Southwest bulges into
our CWA. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower to mid 90s on
Monday especially in far NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and the mid to
upper 90s CWA-wide on Monday as the ridge axis settles along I-70.
Moisture will pool south of a southeastward moving cold front,
helping keep dewpoints in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday, although
better mixing Tuesday afternoon may lower them slightly across
eastern Kansas. Heat indices should be brushing 105 degrees on Monday
and in the 103 to 107 degree range Tuesday, so have issued an area-
wide heat advisory for both days. The heat may feel especially
oppressive in light of the recent cool spell across the region... and
precautions will need to be taken by anyone outdoors or without air
conditioning.

The upper ridge and hot temperatures aloft should keep precipitation
chances very low through Tuesday evening, and will inhibit storms to
a degree even Tuesday night as the cold front pushes across the CWA.
Most of the energy/forcing associated with the shortwave trough that
will help kick the front southward should stay northeast of the KC
area, and for that reason have lowered PoPs a bit except in the
northeast corner of the CWA. Either way, potential rainfall amounts
and the potential for strong storms both look low.

High temperatures will be a bit more reasonable behind the front for
midweek through the end of the period, but will still be summer-
like in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Most models bring a fairly
significant trough across the far northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region by the end of the period, compressing the upper high
back to the west and allowing a few more disturbances to ride down
the ridge and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Another cold front
and accompanying chances for storms will come sometime Friday night
or Saturday, but timing will need to be refined as models come into
better agreement.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201946
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
246 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The main weather story for the next few days will be the return of
summer heat. Southerly flow across the region today has brought
warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, with RH noticeably
higher today. This upward trend will continue through Tuesday as
the upper high/ridge currently centered in NM amplifies and builds
northeastward through the Nation`s midsection. Monday looks around
normal for this time of the year. Tuesday looks seasonably hot
with a pronounced low-level thermal ridge centered through the
northern half of the CWA with H85 temps of +22 to +24 degC, mid
levels temps of +12 to +14 degC and H5 heights of 594+ dm, all
supporting high temperatures well into the 90s. These warm
temperatures aloft are expected to effectively cap any surface
based storm development. We might need to keep an eye on a few
high-based showers at 10 kft or higher on Tuesday morning across
northern sections of CWA associated with a pocket of moisture
aloft and steep lapse rates.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The return of summer heat will be short-lived however. A new
longwave trof will develop across the eastern U.S. during the
later part of the upcoming week in association with large scale
amplification across the Canada into the northern portion of the
U.S., with an initial short wave trof digging through the Great
Lakes-mid/uppper MS Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. This wave will
send a cold front across the region in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
time frame. Height falls/cooling aloft, convergence along the
front, and good moisture and instability should be sufficient for
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures
and dry weather will then prevail in the wake of the front
Thursday/Friday as surface high pressure dominates the region. The
combination of the northward returning front on Friday night and
then another cold front Saturday-Sunday will bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight across the area. Scattered to broken
cumulus can be expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT.
The cumulus should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over
the past few days. VFR flight conditions will continue through
tonight. There may be some river valley fog again, but confidence
is low due to deep mixing this afternoon which will tend to dry
out the lower atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight. Scattered to broken cumulus can be
expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT. The cumulus
should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over the past few
days. VFR flight conditions will continue through tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 201946
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
246 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The main weather story for the next few days will be the return of
summer heat. Southerly flow across the region today has brought
warmer temperatures and increasing moisture, with RH noticeably
higher today. This upward trend will continue through Tuesday as
the upper high/ridge currently centered in NM amplifies and builds
northeastward through the Nation`s midsection. Monday looks around
normal for this time of the year. Tuesday looks seasonably hot
with a pronounced low-level thermal ridge centered through the
northern half of the CWA with H85 temps of +22 to +24 degC, mid
levels temps of +12 to +14 degC and H5 heights of 594+ dm, all
supporting high temperatures well into the 90s. These warm
temperatures aloft are expected to effectively cap any surface
based storm development. We might need to keep an eye on a few
high-based showers at 10 kft or higher on Tuesday morning across
northern sections of CWA associated with a pocket of moisture
aloft and steep lapse rates.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The return of summer heat will be short-lived however. A new
longwave trof will develop across the eastern U.S. during the
later part of the upcoming week in association with large scale
amplification across the Canada into the northern portion of the
U.S., with an initial short wave trof digging through the Great
Lakes-mid/uppper MS Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. This wave will
send a cold front across the region in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
time frame. Height falls/cooling aloft, convergence along the
front, and good moisture and instability should be sufficient for
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures
and dry weather will then prevail in the wake of the front
Thursday/Friday as surface high pressure dominates the region. The
combination of the northward returning front on Friday night and
then another cold front Saturday-Sunday will bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight across the area. Scattered to broken
cumulus can be expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT.
The cumulus should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over
the past few days. VFR flight conditions will continue through
tonight. There may be some river valley fog again, but confidence
is low due to deep mixing this afternoon which will tend to dry
out the lower atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight. Scattered to broken cumulus can be
expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT. The cumulus
should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over the past few
days. VFR flight conditions will continue through tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201921
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.



.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.


&&

.AVIATION...

Good afternoon pilots and all others within the aviation community.

Fair weather VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

There is a field of cumulus clouds that will persist through this
afternoon. Those are hovering around 3000 feet above the surface
at all three airports including Springfield, Branson, and Joplin.
These clouds should dissipate as we begin to cool this evening.
Mostly clear skies are then expected through the rest of tonight.

Surface winds will be light and from the south. Branson airport
could experience light and variable, or even calm winds tonight
upon sunset.

No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201921
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.



.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.


&&

.AVIATION...

Good afternoon pilots and all others within the aviation community.

Fair weather VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

There is a field of cumulus clouds that will persist through this
afternoon. Those are hovering around 3000 feet above the surface
at all three airports including Springfield, Branson, and Joplin.
These clouds should dissipate as we begin to cool this evening.
Mostly clear skies are then expected through the rest of tonight.

Surface winds will be light and from the south. Branson airport
could experience light and variable, or even calm winds tonight
upon sunset.

No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201921
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.



.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.


&&

.AVIATION...

Good afternoon pilots and all others within the aviation community.

Fair weather VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

There is a field of cumulus clouds that will persist through this
afternoon. Those are hovering around 3000 feet above the surface
at all three airports including Springfield, Branson, and Joplin.
These clouds should dissipate as we begin to cool this evening.
Mostly clear skies are then expected through the rest of tonight.

Surface winds will be light and from the south. Branson airport
could experience light and variable, or even calm winds tonight
upon sunset.

No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201921
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.



.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.


&&

.AVIATION...

Good afternoon pilots and all others within the aviation community.

Fair weather VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

There is a field of cumulus clouds that will persist through this
afternoon. Those are hovering around 3000 feet above the surface
at all three airports including Springfield, Branson, and Joplin.
These clouds should dissipate as we begin to cool this evening.
Mostly clear skies are then expected through the rest of tonight.

Surface winds will be light and from the south. Branson airport
could experience light and variable, or even calm winds tonight
upon sunset.

No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KLSX 201748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Minor afternoon update to bump temperatures up a skosh and to
increase cloud cover. The daily diurnal cu field looks more
extensive on satellite today than the past couple of days, and it
looks like the cu has a little more vertical development as well.
Other than than, the forecast looks to be in fine shape for the
rest of the afternoon.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight across the area. Scattered to broken
cumulus can be expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT.
The cumulus should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over
the past few days. VFR flight conditions will continue through
tonight. There may be some river valley fog again, but confidence
is low due to deep mixing this afternoon which will tend to dry
out the lower atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight. Scattered to broken cumulus can be
expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT. The cumulus
should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over the past few
days. VFR flight conditions will continue through tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Minor afternoon update to bump temperatures up a skosh and to
increase cloud cover. The daily diurnal cu field looks more
extensive on satellite today than the past couple of days, and it
looks like the cu has a little more vertical development as well.
Other than than, the forecast looks to be in fine shape for the
rest of the afternoon.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight across the area. Scattered to broken
cumulus can be expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT.
The cumulus should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over
the past few days. VFR flight conditions will continue through
tonight. There may be some river valley fog again, but confidence
is low due to deep mixing this afternoon which will tend to dry
out the lower atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight. Scattered to broken cumulus can be
expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT. The cumulus
should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over the past few
days. VFR flight conditions will continue through tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Minor afternoon update to bump temperatures up a skosh and to
increase cloud cover. The daily diurnal cu field looks more
extensive on satellite today than the past couple of days, and it
looks like the cu has a little more vertical development as well.
Other than than, the forecast looks to be in fine shape for the
rest of the afternoon.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight across the area. Scattered to broken
cumulus can be expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT.
The cumulus should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over
the past few days. VFR flight conditions will continue through
tonight. There may be some river valley fog again, but confidence
is low due to deep mixing this afternoon which will tend to dry
out the lower atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight. Scattered to broken cumulus can be
expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT. The cumulus
should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over the past few
days. VFR flight conditions will continue through tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Minor afternoon update to bump temperatures up a skosh and to
increase cloud cover. The daily diurnal cu field looks more
extensive on satellite today than the past couple of days, and it
looks like the cu has a little more vertical development as well.
Other than than, the forecast looks to be in fine shape for the
rest of the afternoon.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight across the area. Scattered to broken
cumulus can be expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT.
The cumulus should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over
the past few days. VFR flight conditions will continue through
tonight. There may be some river valley fog again, but confidence
is low due to deep mixing this afternoon which will tend to dry
out the lower atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight. Scattered to broken cumulus can be
expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT. The cumulus
should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over the past few
days. VFR flight conditions will continue through tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201735
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight across the area. Scattered to broken
cumulus can be expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT.
The cumulus should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over
the past few days. VFR flight conditions will continue through
tonight. There may be some river valley fog again, but confidence
is low due to deep mixing this afternoon which will tend to dry
out the lower atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight. Scattered to broken cumulus can be
expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT. The cumulus
should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over the past few
days. VFR flight conditions will continue through tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 201735
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight across the area. Scattered to broken
cumulus can be expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT.
The cumulus should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over
the past few days. VFR flight conditions will continue through
tonight. There may be some river valley fog again, but confidence
is low due to deep mixing this afternoon which will tend to dry
out the lower atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail this
afternoon into tonight. Scattered to broken cumulus can be
expected this afternoon with bases around 5,000 FT. The cumulus
should dissipate quickly this evening as it has over the past few
days. VFR flight conditions will continue through tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

It is a quiet morning across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Skies were generally mostly clear and winds were light.
Temperatures starting off in the lower 60s this morning a few degrees
milder than the previous morning. Mostly sunny skies will continue
today with temperatures a few degrees warmer into the middle and
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

There are no changes in the forecast for next week. Height rises
with an upper level ridge building across the southern and central
U.S. will bring warmer temperatures for this upcoming week. The
hottest day appears to be Tuesday afternoon where highs will be in
the lower and middle 90s. The heat index values will be between
100 and 104 a few days this week. It will be the warmest weather
so far this Summer but nothing unheard of for late July.

A shortwave will ride over the ridge through the Midwest by mid
week and bring down a weak front. This will bring a chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night before the front eventually washes out.
Temperatures will cool off a few degrees for the end of the week
but around seasonable average for late July. Another shortwave and
front will move into the area by next weekend and bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms.

There is some indication in the longer range models of another
strong trough developing across the Midwest and eastern U.S. just
beyond next weekend which would bring another break from the
Summertime heat and much cooler temperatures towards the end of
July.

&&

.AVIATION...

Good afternoon pilots and all others within the aviation community.

Fair weather VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

There is a field of cumulus clouds that will persist through this
afternoon. Those are hovering around 3000 feet above the surface
at all three airports including Springfield, Branson, and Joplin.
These clouds should dissipate as we begin to cool this evening.
Mostly clear skies are then expected through the rest of tonight.

Surface winds will be light and from the south. Branson airport
could experience light and variable, or even calm winds tonight
upon sunset.

No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

It is a quiet morning across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Skies were generally mostly clear and winds were light.
Temperatures starting off in the lower 60s this morning a few degrees
milder than the previous morning. Mostly sunny skies will continue
today with temperatures a few degrees warmer into the middle and
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

There are no changes in the forecast for next week. Height rises
with an upper level ridge building across the southern and central
U.S. will bring warmer temperatures for this upcoming week. The
hottest day appears to be Tuesday afternoon where highs will be in
the lower and middle 90s. The heat index values will be between
100 and 104 a few days this week. It will be the warmest weather
so far this Summer but nothing unheard of for late July.

A shortwave will ride over the ridge through the Midwest by mid
week and bring down a weak front. This will bring a chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night before the front eventually washes out.
Temperatures will cool off a few degrees for the end of the week
but around seasonable average for late July. Another shortwave and
front will move into the area by next weekend and bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms.

There is some indication in the longer range models of another
strong trough developing across the Midwest and eastern U.S. just
beyond next weekend which would bring another break from the
Summertime heat and much cooler temperatures towards the end of
July.

&&

.AVIATION...

Good afternoon pilots and all others within the aviation community.

Fair weather VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

There is a field of cumulus clouds that will persist through this
afternoon. Those are hovering around 3000 feet above the surface
at all three airports including Springfield, Branson, and Joplin.
These clouds should dissipate as we begin to cool this evening.
Mostly clear skies are then expected through the rest of tonight.

Surface winds will be light and from the south. Branson airport
could experience light and variable, or even calm winds tonight
upon sunset.

No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

It is a quiet morning across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Skies were generally mostly clear and winds were light.
Temperatures starting off in the lower 60s this morning a few degrees
milder than the previous morning. Mostly sunny skies will continue
today with temperatures a few degrees warmer into the middle and
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

There are no changes in the forecast for next week. Height rises
with an upper level ridge building across the southern and central
U.S. will bring warmer temperatures for this upcoming week. The
hottest day appears to be Tuesday afternoon where highs will be in
the lower and middle 90s. The heat index values will be between
100 and 104 a few days this week. It will be the warmest weather
so far this Summer but nothing unheard of for late July.

A shortwave will ride over the ridge through the Midwest by mid
week and bring down a weak front. This will bring a chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night before the front eventually washes out.
Temperatures will cool off a few degrees for the end of the week
but around seasonable average for late July. Another shortwave and
front will move into the area by next weekend and bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms.

There is some indication in the longer range models of another
strong trough developing across the Midwest and eastern U.S. just
beyond next weekend which would bring another break from the
Summertime heat and much cooler temperatures towards the end of
July.

&&

.AVIATION...

Good afternoon pilots and all others within the aviation community.

Fair weather VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

There is a field of cumulus clouds that will persist through this
afternoon. Those are hovering around 3000 feet above the surface
at all three airports including Springfield, Branson, and Joplin.
These clouds should dissipate as we begin to cool this evening.
Mostly clear skies are then expected through the rest of tonight.

Surface winds will be light and from the south. Branson airport
could experience light and variable, or even calm winds tonight
upon sunset.

No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

It is a quiet morning across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Skies were generally mostly clear and winds were light.
Temperatures starting off in the lower 60s this morning a few degrees
milder than the previous morning. Mostly sunny skies will continue
today with temperatures a few degrees warmer into the middle and
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

There are no changes in the forecast for next week. Height rises
with an upper level ridge building across the southern and central
U.S. will bring warmer temperatures for this upcoming week. The
hottest day appears to be Tuesday afternoon where highs will be in
the lower and middle 90s. The heat index values will be between
100 and 104 a few days this week. It will be the warmest weather
so far this Summer but nothing unheard of for late July.

A shortwave will ride over the ridge through the Midwest by mid
week and bring down a weak front. This will bring a chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night before the front eventually washes out.
Temperatures will cool off a few degrees for the end of the week
but around seasonable average for late July. Another shortwave and
front will move into the area by next weekend and bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms.

There is some indication in the longer range models of another
strong trough developing across the Midwest and eastern U.S. just
beyond next weekend which would bring another break from the
Summertime heat and much cooler temperatures towards the end of
July.

&&

.AVIATION...

Good afternoon pilots and all others within the aviation community.

Fair weather VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

There is a field of cumulus clouds that will persist through this
afternoon. Those are hovering around 3000 feet above the surface
at all three airports including Springfield, Branson, and Joplin.
These clouds should dissipate as we begin to cool this evening.
Mostly clear skies are then expected through the rest of tonight.

Surface winds will be light and from the south. Branson airport
could experience light and variable, or even calm winds tonight
upon sunset.

No obstructions to visibilities are expected at this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KEAX 201721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 201721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 201721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 201721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Scattered cumulus with bases around 4 kft will continue to expand
northward this afternoon, heading into the KC metro shortly after
18z. Cu should dissipate this evening, leaving skies mainly clear
through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain out
of the south, but gusts should drop off after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 201206
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
706 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge has moved off to the east allowing southerly winds
to return to the region. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail
through the forecast period with some diurnal cu today. Then winds
become light and variable towards sunset with cu dissipating.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge has moved off to the east allowing southerly winds
to return to the region. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail
through the forecast period with some diurnal cu today. Then winds
become light and variable towards sunset with cu dissipating.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201206
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
706 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge has moved off to the east allowing southerly winds
to return to the region. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail
through the forecast period with some diurnal cu today. Then winds
become light and variable towards sunset with cu dissipating.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge has moved off to the east allowing southerly winds
to return to the region. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail
through the forecast period with some diurnal cu today. Then winds
become light and variable towards sunset with cu dissipating.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201206
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
706 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge has moved off to the east allowing southerly winds
to return to the region. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail
through the forecast period with some diurnal cu today. Then winds
become light and variable towards sunset with cu dissipating.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge has moved off to the east allowing southerly winds
to return to the region. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail
through the forecast period with some diurnal cu today. Then winds
become light and variable towards sunset with cu dissipating.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201206
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
706 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge finally begins to loosen its grip on the region
today with return southerly flow taking hold across the entire CWA
by tonight. Temperatures to rise a few more degrees over yesterday with
lower to middle 80s common this afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

South/southwest flow, rising heights in response to the building
upper level ridge to our southwest, and a thermal ridge at 850 mb
approaching from the northwest will send temperatures back to
normal values on Monday and above normal on Tuesday. The heat will
be short-lived though as well advertised shortwave and cold front
will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night along with cooler temperatures.

Front expected to return by the end of the week with several
chance of thunderstorms heading into next weekend. Front position,
cloud cover and preciptiation coverage will determine
temperatures next weekend.

CVKING
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Surface ridge has moved off to the east allowing southerly winds
to return to the region. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail
through the forecast period with some diurnal cu today. Then winds
become light and variable towards sunset with cu dissipating.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge has moved off to the east allowing southerly winds
to return to the region. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail
through the forecast period with some diurnal cu today. Then winds
become light and variable towards sunset with cu dissipating.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201106 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

It is a quiet morning across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Skies were generally mostly clear and winds were light.
Temperatures starting off in the lower 60s this morning a few degrees
milder than the previous morning. Mostly sunny skies will continue
today with temperatures a few degrees warmer into the middle and
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

There are no changes in the forecast for next week. Height rises
with an upper level ridge building across the southern and central
U.S. will bring warmer temperatures for this upcoming week. The
hottest day appears to be Tuesday afternoon where highs will be in
the lower and middle 90s. The heat index values will be between
100 and 104 a few days this week. It will be the warmest weather
so far this Summer but nothing unheard of for late July.

A shortwave will ride over the ridge through the Midwest by mid
week and bring down a weak front. This will bring a chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night before the front eventually washes out.
Temperatures will cool off a few degrees for the end of the week
but around seasonable average for late July. Another shortwave and
front will move into the area by next weekend and bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms.

There is some indication in the longer range models of another
strong trough developing across the Midwest and eastern U.S. just
beyond next weekend which would bring another break from the
Summertime heat and much cooler temperatures towards the end of
July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Aside from a brief period of light fog over the next hour or two,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and likely
beyond. Surface high pressure will continue to exit to the east
and southerly winds will gradually develop across the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201106 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

It is a quiet morning across southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Skies were generally mostly clear and winds were light.
Temperatures starting off in the lower 60s this morning a few degrees
milder than the previous morning. Mostly sunny skies will continue
today with temperatures a few degrees warmer into the middle and
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

There are no changes in the forecast for next week. Height rises
with an upper level ridge building across the southern and central
U.S. will bring warmer temperatures for this upcoming week. The
hottest day appears to be Tuesday afternoon where highs will be in
the lower and middle 90s. The heat index values will be between
100 and 104 a few days this week. It will be the warmest weather
so far this Summer but nothing unheard of for late July.

A shortwave will ride over the ridge through the Midwest by mid
week and bring down a weak front. This will bring a chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night before the front eventually washes out.
Temperatures will cool off a few degrees for the end of the week
but around seasonable average for late July. Another shortwave and
front will move into the area by next weekend and bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms.

There is some indication in the longer range models of another
strong trough developing across the Midwest and eastern U.S. just
beyond next weekend which would bring another break from the
Summertime heat and much cooler temperatures towards the end of
July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Aside from a brief period of light fog over the next hour or two,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and likely
beyond. Surface high pressure will continue to exit to the east
and southerly winds will gradually develop across the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KEAX 201048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle as only a few to sct high
cirrus clouds are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be out
of the south btn 5-10kts early this morning before picking up to
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts late this morning and afternoon. Winds
will then subside again this evening diminishing to 5-10kts while
remaining out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 201048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Today - Tuesday:

Summer will reboot today with temperatures climbing to near normal
values today and then above normal for Monday and Tuesday. For
today, 850mb temperatures climbing into the 16C to 20C degree range
suggest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are likely. Dry
conditions are expected as well with the the upper ridge beginning to
expand eastward. 850mb temperatures warm to around 24C to 26C for
Monday with similar values for Tuesday. These very warm temperatures
aloft should result in the warmest highs so far this year. Highs in
the low to mid 90s on Monday are expected. With the ridge axis nosing
right over the area Tuesday and a more southwesterly low level flow,
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 90s across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas with mid 90s elsewhere. Monday
and Tuesday will have a good potential for heat headlines with the
greatest chances in the northwest on Monday, spreading through the
entire area on Tuesday.

With the ridge axis moving over, precipitation chances look to hold
off until later in the day on Tuesday. The best chances through
Tuesday afternoon will be across northwestern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas where a cold front may aid initiation. Storms that
initiate in the north should then track to the southeast into the
overnight hours. With dewpoints in the mid 70s and surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, instability will be extreme.
However, warm temperatures aloft should keep things capped and as a
result it looks like the cold front will be the main lifting
mechanism. Given the uncertainties, have maintained low chance PoPs
through the day and then increased them overnight as the potential
for a weak upper wave to move into the area increases. The threat of
severe weather still looks low but extreme instability and moderate
shear may support some storm organization, so the threat is not zero.

Wednesday - Saturday:

That cold front will slide through the area Wednesday with high
pressure moving into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday. This will
result in a northeasterly to easterly surface flow which will help
cool things down from the heat we`ll experience on Monday and
Tuesday. This will be most noticeable in our northeastern zones. The
upper ridge flattens out and shifts back to the Southwest so the
extremely hot and humid conditions may not return. However, this will
lead to more northwest flow and the potential for weak upper
shortwave troughs to move through the area possibly triggering
precipitation through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF cycle as only a few to sct high
cirrus clouds are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be out
of the south btn 5-10kts early this morning before picking up to
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts late this morning and afternoon. Winds
will then subside again this evening diminishing to 5-10kts while
remaining out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities