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000
FXUS63 KSGF 200504
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

It was a beautiful day across the Ozarks as short wave ridging
aloft and departing surface high pressure brought sunny skies
and warm temperatures to the region. Winds were picking up a bit
as the surface high slowly moves east with the winds along and
west of Highway 65 gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Mild weather is expected overnight tonight as the ridge aloft
continues to move east. Winds will remain breezy as surface low
pressure over the central plains makes a slow move towards the
area and the surface pressure gradient stays fairly tight.

Models have continued the trend of slower progression with the
system expected for late Sunday into Monday. Clouds and low level
moisture will continue a slow increase on the breezy southerly
winds into Sunday evening.

Showers and some isolated thunder will begin to impact
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late Sunday night with a
cold front finally moving across the region by midday Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will linger through most of
the day Monday with high pressure moving over the region out of
Canada Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridging will bring tranquil weather and near normal
temperatures to the region during the midweek period. Global
models then bring an upper level trough out into the Plains from
Wednesday night into Thursday...before moving this feature into
the Mississippi Valley region by Thursday night. This will spell
our next decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. The air mass
behind that system does not look at all that cool with
temperatures at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A sfc ridge extending from the Great
Lakes to the lower MS River Vly will slowly shift east as low
pressure moves into the central High Plains. High clouds will
continue increase from west to east early in the taf period and a
more developed cumulus field may develop Sunday afternoon with a
gradual increase in low level moisture. Toward the end of the taf
period, increased lift ahead of an upper level disturbance will
begin to increase chances for showers/isolated tstms over KS/OK
and far sw MO. Better rain coverage chances will occur just after
the taf period, but are expected to increase enough to put in a
prob30 group for showers at KJLN after 21/03z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 200504
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

It was a beautiful day across the Ozarks as short wave ridging
aloft and departing surface high pressure brought sunny skies
and warm temperatures to the region. Winds were picking up a bit
as the surface high slowly moves east with the winds along and
west of Highway 65 gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Mild weather is expected overnight tonight as the ridge aloft
continues to move east. Winds will remain breezy as surface low
pressure over the central plains makes a slow move towards the
area and the surface pressure gradient stays fairly tight.

Models have continued the trend of slower progression with the
system expected for late Sunday into Monday. Clouds and low level
moisture will continue a slow increase on the breezy southerly
winds into Sunday evening.

Showers and some isolated thunder will begin to impact
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late Sunday night with a
cold front finally moving across the region by midday Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will linger through most of
the day Monday with high pressure moving over the region out of
Canada Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridging will bring tranquil weather and near normal
temperatures to the region during the midweek period. Global
models then bring an upper level trough out into the Plains from
Wednesday night into Thursday...before moving this feature into
the Mississippi Valley region by Thursday night. This will spell
our next decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. The air mass
behind that system does not look at all that cool with
temperatures at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A sfc ridge extending from the Great
Lakes to the lower MS River Vly will slowly shift east as low
pressure moves into the central High Plains. High clouds will
continue increase from west to east early in the taf period and a
more developed cumulus field may develop Sunday afternoon with a
gradual increase in low level moisture. Toward the end of the taf
period, increased lift ahead of an upper level disturbance will
begin to increase chances for showers/isolated tstms over KS/OK
and far sw MO. Better rain coverage chances will occur just after
the taf period, but are expected to increase enough to put in a
prob30 group for showers at KJLN after 21/03z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA






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000
FXUS63 KLSX 200357
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1057 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 941 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

No significant changes were made to the grids for this update
though did decrease the cloud cover overnight from partly cloudy,
mainly after midnight, to mostly clear all night.

Miller

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

The expansive low level ridge extending from eastern Ontario into
the lower MS Valley will keep Gulf moisture return confined to the
Plains tonight, and allow for continued dry and tranquil weather for
our region. Bouts of high clouds will be the main story with
slightly above average temperatures.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Sunday will be similar to today, except a couple of degrees warmer
due to southerly winds, and more high level cloudiness as weak
southwest flow shortwaves move through the area.  It appears that
the chance of showers will hold off until late Sunday night for
central MO, and Monday for the rest of our forecast area.  The mid
level trough now over the southwest US will move eastward through
our area on Monday, while a strong shortwave moving through the
northern portion of the Great Lakes region sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Monday afternoon and
evening.  Low-mid level moisture and instability will also be
increasing ahead of the mid level trough and surface cold front.
This will lead to showers and a few thunderstorms Monday and Monday
evening across our area.  Most of the showers should shift southeast
of our forecast area by late Monday night as the mid level trough
shifts east of the region, and the cold front shifts southeast of
our area with colder and drier air filtering southeastward into the
region behind the cold front late Monday night into Tuesday.  This
cooler weather will be short lived as an upper level ridge moves
eastward over MO on Wednesday and southerly low level winds return
and strengthen.  The GFS model now keeps the convection on Wednesday
and Wednesday evening, associated with strong low-mid level warm air
advection ahead of shortwaves moving through the upper level ridge,
north of our forecast area.  The ECMWF model has the southern edge
of this convection skimming the extreme northern portion of our
forecast area during this time period.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are
fairly consistent now in bringing convection through our forecast
area late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the upper
level ridge moves east of the region, while an upper level
trough/low moves slowly eastward through the northern Plains and an
associated surface low drags a trailing cold front southeastward
through our area Thursday and Thursday evening.  The ECMWF model is
a little quicker with the passage of this front through our forecast
area compared to the GFS.  The GFS model brings colder air
southward into our area Friday and Friday night with the upper level
low and associated surface low moving slowly southeastward through
the Great Lakes region.  The ECMWF model has a weaker and more
progressive solution and keeps the colder air north of our forecast
area.  For now will forecast cooler temperatures for Friday night
and Saturday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR with southeast wind becoming south on Easter Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR with southeast wind becoming south on Easter Sunday.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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000
FXUS63 KEAX 200357
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1057 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Shortwave over the Southern Rockies will track toward the forecast
area Sunday and Sunday night. High clouds and increasing southerly
flow ahead of this system will keep overnight temperatures warmer
than the past few nights with lows tonight in the mid 50s.

The upper wave to the southwest will begin to weaken as it
approaches the area tomorrow and begins to phase with a stronger wave
to the north. Tropospheric wind flow and overall forcing will
therefore be relatively weak, but this system will still have enough
moisture and instability to work with for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across much of KS and NE Sunday afternoon
and spread into the region Sunday evening. Models continue to slow
down the progression of this system slightly, so that most precip
looks to hold off until near or shortly after sunset Sunday. With
such weak wind flow aloft any storm that develops Sunday evening is
unlikely to be strong or severe.

With the slower timing of the upper wave, it appears the weak
attendant cold front will not pass through the area until midday
Monday. This will allow parts of the area to destabilize during the
day Monday and provide a better chance for more widespread showers
and thunderstorms particularly across the southeastern half of the
forecast area during the afternoon. Winds aloft will remain quite
weak and instability will be marginal so strong storms are not
expected and heavy rainfall appears unlikely. Clearing skies and a
lack of cold air upstream will likely allow parts of northwest MO and
northeast KS to rise back into the low to mid 70s Monday afternoon
despite the passage of the cold front.

Deep upper-level ridging will build into the central U.S. Tuesday and
Tuesday night bringing surface ridging and dry conditions. Coldest
air with this surface high will remain bottled well to the north so
temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights will only be in the 40s and
temps during the day Tuesday will still rise into the middle and
upper 60s.

A quick return to southerly flow on Wednesday will set the stage for
another round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and
Thursday when a much deeper upper-level trough and an associated cold
front will swing into the Plains. While there are still some
discrepancies among medium range models with the timing of this
front, the general consensus seems to bring it into the forecast area
Thursday morning and early afternoon which is not too favorable for
strong or severe storms. However, the severe potential will need to
be watched given the sharp negative tilt this system is forecast to
acquire over the Plains. If this system slows down, more unstable air
could be advected into the area while the front would track into the
region during a more favorable time of day for severe thunderstorms.
So this system will bear watching.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions will persist through at least 00z Sunday evening.
Fairly light southeast winds between 5-10 kts will continue through
sunrise, then winds will increase again between 13z-15z out of the
south. Broken stratus with bases around 5 kft will lift into the area
during the mid-morning hours, then ceilings will gradually lower
while isolated thunderstorms develop across far northwest Missouri.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and spread southeast
between 00z-06z, and will continue past the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200357
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1057 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 941 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

No significant changes were made to the grids for this update
though did decrease the cloud cover overnight from partly cloudy,
mainly after midnight, to mostly clear all night.

Miller

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

The expansive low level ridge extending from eastern Ontario into
the lower MS Valley will keep Gulf moisture return confined to the
Plains tonight, and allow for continued dry and tranquil weather for
our region. Bouts of high clouds will be the main story with
slightly above average temperatures.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Sunday will be similar to today, except a couple of degrees warmer
due to southerly winds, and more high level cloudiness as weak
southwest flow shortwaves move through the area.  It appears that
the chance of showers will hold off until late Sunday night for
central MO, and Monday for the rest of our forecast area.  The mid
level trough now over the southwest US will move eastward through
our area on Monday, while a strong shortwave moving through the
northern portion of the Great Lakes region sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Monday afternoon and
evening.  Low-mid level moisture and instability will also be
increasing ahead of the mid level trough and surface cold front.
This will lead to showers and a few thunderstorms Monday and Monday
evening across our area.  Most of the showers should shift southeast
of our forecast area by late Monday night as the mid level trough
shifts east of the region, and the cold front shifts southeast of
our area with colder and drier air filtering southeastward into the
region behind the cold front late Monday night into Tuesday.  This
cooler weather will be short lived as an upper level ridge moves
eastward over MO on Wednesday and southerly low level winds return
and strengthen.  The GFS model now keeps the convection on Wednesday
and Wednesday evening, associated with strong low-mid level warm air
advection ahead of shortwaves moving through the upper level ridge,
north of our forecast area.  The ECMWF model has the southern edge
of this convection skimming the extreme northern portion of our
forecast area during this time period.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are
fairly consistent now in bringing convection through our forecast
area late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the upper
level ridge moves east of the region, while an upper level
trough/low moves slowly eastward through the northern Plains and an
associated surface low drags a trailing cold front southeastward
through our area Thursday and Thursday evening.  The ECMWF model is
a little quicker with the passage of this front through our forecast
area compared to the GFS.  The GFS model brings colder air
southward into our area Friday and Friday night with the upper level
low and associated surface low moving slowly southeastward through
the Great Lakes region.  The ECMWF model has a weaker and more
progressive solution and keeps the colder air north of our forecast
area.  For now will forecast cooler temperatures for Friday night
and Saturday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR with southeast wind becoming south on Easter Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR with southeast wind becoming south on Easter Sunday.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200357
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1057 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Shortwave over the Southern Rockies will track toward the forecast
area Sunday and Sunday night. High clouds and increasing southerly
flow ahead of this system will keep overnight temperatures warmer
than the past few nights with lows tonight in the mid 50s.

The upper wave to the southwest will begin to weaken as it
approaches the area tomorrow and begins to phase with a stronger wave
to the north. Tropospheric wind flow and overall forcing will
therefore be relatively weak, but this system will still have enough
moisture and instability to work with for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across much of KS and NE Sunday afternoon
and spread into the region Sunday evening. Models continue to slow
down the progression of this system slightly, so that most precip
looks to hold off until near or shortly after sunset Sunday. With
such weak wind flow aloft any storm that develops Sunday evening is
unlikely to be strong or severe.

With the slower timing of the upper wave, it appears the weak
attendant cold front will not pass through the area until midday
Monday. This will allow parts of the area to destabilize during the
day Monday and provide a better chance for more widespread showers
and thunderstorms particularly across the southeastern half of the
forecast area during the afternoon. Winds aloft will remain quite
weak and instability will be marginal so strong storms are not
expected and heavy rainfall appears unlikely. Clearing skies and a
lack of cold air upstream will likely allow parts of northwest MO and
northeast KS to rise back into the low to mid 70s Monday afternoon
despite the passage of the cold front.

Deep upper-level ridging will build into the central U.S. Tuesday and
Tuesday night bringing surface ridging and dry conditions. Coldest
air with this surface high will remain bottled well to the north so
temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights will only be in the 40s and
temps during the day Tuesday will still rise into the middle and
upper 60s.

A quick return to southerly flow on Wednesday will set the stage for
another round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and
Thursday when a much deeper upper-level trough and an associated cold
front will swing into the Plains. While there are still some
discrepancies among medium range models with the timing of this
front, the general consensus seems to bring it into the forecast area
Thursday morning and early afternoon which is not too favorable for
strong or severe storms. However, the severe potential will need to
be watched given the sharp negative tilt this system is forecast to
acquire over the Plains. If this system slows down, more unstable air
could be advected into the area while the front would track into the
region during a more favorable time of day for severe thunderstorms.
So this system will bear watching.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions will persist through at least 00z Sunday evening.
Fairly light southeast winds between 5-10 kts will continue through
sunrise, then winds will increase again between 13z-15z out of the
south. Broken stratus with bases around 5 kft will lift into the area
during the mid-morning hours, then ceilings will gradually lower
while isolated thunderstorms develop across far northwest Missouri.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and spread southeast
between 00z-06z, and will continue past the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200244
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
944 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 941 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

No significant changes were made to the grids for this update
though did decrease the cloud cover overnight from partly cloudy,
mainly after midnight, to mostly clear all night.

Miller

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

The expansive low level ridge extending from eastern Ontario into
the lower MS Valley will keep Gulf moisture return confined to the
Plains tonight, and allow for continued dry and tranquil weather for
our region. Bouts of high clouds will be the main story with
slightly above average temperatures.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Sunday will be similar to today, except a couple of degrees warmer
due to southerly winds, and more high level cloudiness as weak
southwest flow shortwaves move through the area.  It appears that
the chance of showers will hold off until late Sunday night for
central MO, and Monday for the rest of our forecast area.  The mid
level trough now over the southwest US will move eastward through
our area on Monday, while a strong shortwave moving through the
northern portion of the Great Lakes region sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Monday afternoon and
evening.  Low-mid level moisture and instability will also be
increasing ahead of the mid level trough and surface cold front.
This will lead to showers and a few thunderstorms Monday and Monday
evening across our area.  Most of the showers should shift southeast
of our forecast area by late Monday night as the mid level trough
shifts east of the region, and the cold front shifts southeast of
our area with colder and drier air filtering southeastward into the
region behind the cold front late Monday night into Tuesday.  This
cooler weather will be short lived as an upper level ridge moves
eastward over MO on Wednesday and southerly low level winds return
and strengthen.  The GFS model now keeps the convection on Wednesday
and Wednesday evening, associated with strong low-mid level warm air
advection ahead of shortwaves moving through the upper level ridge,
north of our forecast area.  The ECMWF model has the southern edge
of this convection skimming the extreme northern portion of our
forecast area during this time period.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are
fairly consistent now in bringing convection through our forecast
area late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the upper
level ridge moves east of the region, while an upper level
trough/low moves slowly eastward through the northern Plains and an
associated surface low drags a trailing cold front southeastward
through our area Thursday and Thursday evening.  The ECMWF model is
a little quicker with the passage of this front through our forecast
area compared to the GFS.  The GFS model brings colder air
southward into our area Friday and Friday night with the upper level
low and associated surface low moving slowly southeastward through
the Great Lakes region.  The ECMWF model has a weaker and more
progressive solution and keeps the colder air north of our forecast
area.  For now will forecast cooler temperatures for Friday night
and Saturday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR conditions expected with light southeast wind becoming south
on Easter Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected with light southeast wind becoming south
on Easter Sunday.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192336
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Shortwave over the Southern Rockies will track toward the forecast
area Sunday and Sunday night. High clouds and increasing southerly
flow ahead of this system will keep overnight temperatures warmer
than the past few nights with lows tonight in the mid 50s.

The upper wave to the southwest will begin to weaken as it
approaches the area tomorrow and begins to phase with a stronger wave
to the north. Tropospheric wind flow and overall forcing will
therefore be relatively weak, but this system will still have enough
moisture and instability to work with for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across much of KS and NE Sunday afternoon
and spread into the region Sunday evening. Models continue to slow
down the progression of this system slightly, so that most precip
looks to hold off until near or shortly after sunset Sunday. With
such weak wind flow aloft any storm that develops Sunday evening is
unlikely to be strong or severe.

With the slower timing of the upper wave, it appears the weak
attendant cold front will not pass through the area until midday
Monday. This will allow parts of the area to destabilize during the
day Monday and provide a better chance for more widespread showers
and thunderstorms particularly across the southeastern half of the
forecast area during the afternoon. Winds aloft will remain quite
weak and instability will be marginal so strong storms are not
expected and heavy rainfall appears unlikely. Clearing skies and a
lack of cold air upstream will likely allow parts of northwest MO and
northeast KS to rise back into the low to mid 70s Monday afternoon
despite the passage of the cold front.

Deep upper-level ridging will build into the central U.S. Tuesday and
Tuesday night bringing surface ridging and dry conditions. Coldest
air with this surface high will remain bottled well to the north so
temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights will only be in the 40s and
temps during the day Tuesday will still rise into the middle and
upper 60s.

A quick return to southerly flow on Wednesday will set the stage for
another round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and
Thursday when a much deeper upper-level trough and an associated cold
front will swing into the Plains. While there are still some
discrepancies among medium range models with the timing of this
front, the general consensus seems to bring it into the forecast area
Thursday morning and early afternoon which is not too favorable for
strong or severe storms. However, the severe potential will need to
be watched given the sharp negative tilt this system is forecast to
acquire over the Plains. If this system slows down, more unstable air
could be advected into the area while the front would track into the
region during a more favorable time of day for severe thunderstorms.
So this system will bear watching.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Gusty southerly winds will diminish over the next 1-2 hours across
the region, and will turn a bit more to the southeast during the
overnight hours. Winds will increase out of the south southwest again
on Sunday morning, and will be accompanied by a broken stratus deck
with bases around 5 kft. Showers and thunderstorms will build in from
the northwest on Sunday evening, possibly impacting TAF sites between
23z-03z Sunday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 192330
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

It was a beautiful day across the Ozarks as short wave ridging
aloft and departing surface high pressure brought sunny skies
and warm temperatures to the region. Winds were picking up a bit
as the surface high slowly moves east with the winds along and
west of Highway 65 gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Mild weather is expected overnight tonight as the ridge aloft
continues to move east. Winds will remain breezy as surface low
pressure over the central plains makes a slow move towards the
area and the surface pressure gradient stays fairly tight.

Models have continued the trend of slower progression with the
system expected for late Sunday into Monday. Clouds and low level
moisture will continue a slow increase on the breezy southerly
winds into Sunday evening.

Showers and some isolated thunder will begin to impact
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late Sunday night with a
cold front finally moving across the region by midday Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will linger through most of
the day Monday with high pressure moving over the region out of
Canada Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridging will bring tranquil weather and near normal
temperatures to the region during the midweek period. Global
models then bring an upper level trough out into the Plains from
Wednesday night into Thursday...before moving this feature into
the Mississippi Valley region by Thursday night. This will spell
our next decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. The air mass
behind that system does not look at all that cool with
temperatures at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for this
taf period. A sfc ridge extending form the Great Lakes to the
lower MS River Vly will slowly shift east as low pressure moves
into the central High Plains. High clouds will increase from west
to east early in the taf period and a more developed cumulus field
may develop late in the taf period with a modest increase in low
level moisture.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 192330
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

It was a beautiful day across the Ozarks as short wave ridging
aloft and departing surface high pressure brought sunny skies
and warm temperatures to the region. Winds were picking up a bit
as the surface high slowly moves east with the winds along and
west of Highway 65 gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Mild weather is expected overnight tonight as the ridge aloft
continues to move east. Winds will remain breezy as surface low
pressure over the central plains makes a slow move towards the
area and the surface pressure gradient stays fairly tight.

Models have continued the trend of slower progression with the
system expected for late Sunday into Monday. Clouds and low level
moisture will continue a slow increase on the breezy southerly
winds into Sunday evening.

Showers and some isolated thunder will begin to impact
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late Sunday night with a
cold front finally moving across the region by midday Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will linger through most of
the day Monday with high pressure moving over the region out of
Canada Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridging will bring tranquil weather and near normal
temperatures to the region during the midweek period. Global
models then bring an upper level trough out into the Plains from
Wednesday night into Thursday...before moving this feature into
the Mississippi Valley region by Thursday night. This will spell
our next decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. The air mass
behind that system does not look at all that cool with
temperatures at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for this
taf period. A sfc ridge extending form the Great Lakes to the
lower MS River Vly will slowly shift east as low pressure moves
into the central High Plains. High clouds will increase from west
to east early in the taf period and a more developed cumulus field
may develop late in the taf period with a modest increase in low
level moisture.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KLSX 192204
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
504 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

The expansive low level ridge extending from eastern Ontario into
the lower MS Valley will keep Gulf moisture return confined to the
Plains tonight, and allow for continued dry and tranquil weather for
our region. Bouts of high clouds will be the main story with
slightly above average temperatures.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Sunday will be similar to today, except a couple of degrees warmer
due to southerly winds, and more high level cloudiness as weak
southwest flow shortwaves move through the area.  It appears that
the chance of showers will hold off until late Sunday night for
central MO, and Monday for the rest of our forecast area.  The mid
level trough now over the southwest US will move eastward through
our area on Monday, while a strong shortwave moving through the
northern portion of the Great Lakes region sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Monday afternoon and
evening.  Low-mid level moisture and instability will also be
increasing ahead of the mid level trough and surface cold front.
This will lead to showers and a few thunderstorms Monday and Monday
evening across our area.  Most of the showers should shift southeast
of our forecast area by late Monday night as the mid level trough
shifts east of the region, and the cold front shifts southeast of
our area with colder and drier air filtering southeastward into the
region behind the cold front late Monday night into Tuesday.  This
cooler weather will be short lived as an upper level ridge moves
eastward over MO on Wednesday and southerly low level winds return
and strengthen.  The GFS model now keeps the convection on Wednesday
and Wednesday evening, associated with strong low-mid level warm air
advection ahead of shortwaves moving through the upper level ridge,
north of our forecast area.  The ECMWF model has the southern edge
of this convection skimming the extreme northern portion of our
forecast area during this time period.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are
fairly consistent now in bringing convection through our forecast
area late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the upper
level ridge moves east of the region, while an upper level
trough/low moves slowly eastward through the northern Plains and an
associated surface low drags a trailing cold front southeastward
through our area Thursday and Thursday evening.  The ECMWF model is
a little quicker with the passage of this front through our forecast
area compared to the GFS.  The GFS model brings colder air
southward into our area Friday and Friday night with the upper level
low and associated surface low moving slowly southeastward through
the Great Lakes region.  The ECMWF model has a weaker and more
progressive solution and keeps the colder air north of our forecast
area.  For now will forecast cooler temperatures for Friday night
and Saturday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR conditions expected with light southeast wind becoming south
on Easter Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected with light southeast wind becoming south
on Easter Sunday.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 192031
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

The expansive low level ridge extending from eastern Ontario into
the lower MS Valley will keep Gulf moisture return confined to the
Plains tonight, and allow for continued dry and tranquil weather for
our region. Bouts of high clouds will be the main story with
slightly above average temperatures.

Glass


.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Sunday will be similar to today, except a couple of degrees warmer
due to southerly winds, and more high level cloudiness as weak
southwest flow shortwaves move through the area.  It appears that
the chance of showers will hold off until late Sunday night for
central MO, and Monday for the rest of our forecast area.  The mid
level trough now over the southwest US will move eastward through
our area on Monday, while a strong shortwave moving through the
northern portion of the Great Lakes region sends a cold front
southeastward through our forecast area Monday afternoon and
evening.  Low-mid level moisture and instability will also be
increasing ahead of the mid level trough and surface cold front.
This will lead to showers and a few thunderstorms Monday and Monday
evening across our area.  Most of the showers should shift southeast
of our forecast area by late Monday night as the mid level trough
shifts east of the region, and the cold front shifts southeast of
our area with colder and drier air filtering southeastward into the
region behind the cold front late Monday night into Tuesday.  This
cooler weather will be short lived as an upper level ridge moves
eastward over MO on Wednesday and southerly low level winds return
and strengthen.  The GFS model now keeps the convection on Wednesday
and Wednesday evening, associated with strong low-mid level warm air
advection ahead of shortwaves moving through the upper level ridge,
north of our forecast area.  The ECMWF model has the southern edge
of this convection skimming the extreme northern portion of our
forecast area during this time period.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are
fairly consistent now in bringing convection through our forecast
area late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the upper
level ridge moves east of the region, while an upper level
trough/low moves slowly eastward through the northern Plains and an
associated surface low drags a trailing cold front southeastward
through our area Thursday and Thursday evening.  The ECMWF model is
a little quicker with the passage of this front through our forecast
area compared to the GFS.  The GFS model brings colder air
southward into our area Friday and Friday night with the upper level
low and associated surface low moving slowly southeastward through
the Great Lakes region.  The ECMWF model has a weaker and more
progressive solution and keeps the colder air north of our forecast
area.  For now will forecast cooler temperatures for Friday night
and Saturday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR flight conditions expected through the period with bouts of
high cloudiness. Southeast winds today and tonight will veer to
southerly on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected through the period with bouts of
high cloudiness. Southeast winds today and tonight will veer to
southerly on Sunday.


Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192013
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
313 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Shortwave over the Southern Rockies will track toward the forecast
area Sunday and Sunday night. High clouds and increasing southerly
flow ahead of this system will keep overnight temperatures warmer
than the past few nights with lows tonight in the mid 50s.

The upper wave to the southwest will begin to weaken as it
approaches the area tomorrow and begins to phase with a stronger wave
to the north. Tropospheric wind flow and overall forcing will
therefore be relatively weak, but this system will still have enough
moisture and instability to work with for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across much of KS and NE Sunday afternoon
and spread into the region Sunday evening. Models continue to slow
down the progression of this system slightly, so that most precip
looks to hold off until near or shortly after sunset Sunday. With
such weak wind flow aloft any storm that develops Sunday evening is
unlikely to be strong or severe.

With the slower timing of the upper wave, it appears the weak
attendant cold front will not pass through the area until midday
Monday. This will allow parts of the area to destabilize during the
day Monday and provide a better chance for more widespread showers
and thunderstorms particularly across the southeastern half of the
forecast area during the afternoon. Winds aloft will remain quite
weak and instability will be marginal so strong storms are not
expected and heavy rainfall appears unlikely. Clearing skies and a
lack of cold air upstream will likely allow parts of northwest MO and
northeast KS to rise back into the low to mid 70s Monday afternoon
despite the passage of the cold front.

Deep upper-level ridging will build into the central U.S. Tuesday and
Tuesday night bringing surface ridging and dry conditions. Coldest
air with this surface high will remain bottled well to the north so
temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights will only be in the 40s and
temps during the day Tuesday will still rise into the middle and
upper 60s.

A quick return to southerly flow on Wednesday will set the stage for
another round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and
Thursday when a much deeper upper-level trough and an associated cold
front will swing into the Plains. While there are still some
discrepancies among medium range models with the timing of this
front, the general consensus seems to bring it into the forecast area
Thursday morning and early afternoon which is not too favorable for
strong or severe storms. However, the severe potential will need to
be watched given the sharp negative tilt this system is forecast to
acquire over the Plains. If this system slows down, more unstable air
could be advected into the area while the front would track into the
region during a more favorable time of day for severe thunderstorms.
So this system will bear watching.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Winds will gust as high as 26kts this afternoon. VFR thru the period
with mid clouds thickening up tomorrow ahead of the next rain maker.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KSGF 191920
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

It was a beautiful day across the Ozarks as short wave ridging
aloft and departing surface high pressure brought sunny skies
and warm temperatures to the region. Winds were picking up a bit
as the surface high slowly moves east with the winds along and
west of Highway 65 gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Mild weather is expected overnight tonight as the ridge aloft
continues to move east. Winds will remain breezy as surface low
pressure over the central plains makes a slow move towards the
area and the surface pressure gradient stays fairly tight.

Models have continued the trend of slower progression with the
system expected for late Sunday into Monday. Clouds and low level
moisture will continue a slow increase on the breezy southerly
winds into Sunday evening.

Showers and some isolated thunder will begin to impact
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late Sunday night with a
cold front finally moving across the region by midday Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will linger through most of
the day Monday with high pressure moving over the region out of
Canada Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridging will bring tranquil weather and near normal
temperatures to the region during the midweek period. Global
models then bring an upper level trough out into the Plains from
Wednesday night into Thursday...before moving this feature into
the Mississippi Valley region by Thursday night. This will spell
our next decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. The air mass
behind that system does not look at all that cool with
temperatures at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Pleasant flight conditions are expected through noon Sunday as a
ridge of high pressure moves over the region. No impacts to
aviation are expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch





000
FXUS63 KSGF 191920
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

It was a beautiful day across the Ozarks as short wave ridging
aloft and departing surface high pressure brought sunny skies
and warm temperatures to the region. Winds were picking up a bit
as the surface high slowly moves east with the winds along and
west of Highway 65 gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Mild weather is expected overnight tonight as the ridge aloft
continues to move east. Winds will remain breezy as surface low
pressure over the central plains makes a slow move towards the
area and the surface pressure gradient stays fairly tight.

Models have continued the trend of slower progression with the
system expected for late Sunday into Monday. Clouds and low level
moisture will continue a slow increase on the breezy southerly
winds into Sunday evening.

Showers and some isolated thunder will begin to impact
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late Sunday night with a
cold front finally moving across the region by midday Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will linger through most of
the day Monday with high pressure moving over the region out of
Canada Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridging will bring tranquil weather and near normal
temperatures to the region during the midweek period. Global
models then bring an upper level trough out into the Plains from
Wednesday night into Thursday...before moving this feature into
the Mississippi Valley region by Thursday night. This will spell
our next decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. The air mass
behind that system does not look at all that cool with
temperatures at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Pleasant flight conditions are expected through noon Sunday as a
ridge of high pressure moves over the region. No impacts to
aviation are expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch





000
FXUS63 KSGF 191920
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

It was a beautiful day across the Ozarks as short wave ridging
aloft and departing surface high pressure brought sunny skies
and warm temperatures to the region. Winds were picking up a bit
as the surface high slowly moves east with the winds along and
west of Highway 65 gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Mild weather is expected overnight tonight as the ridge aloft
continues to move east. Winds will remain breezy as surface low
pressure over the central plains makes a slow move towards the
area and the surface pressure gradient stays fairly tight.

Models have continued the trend of slower progression with the
system expected for late Sunday into Monday. Clouds and low level
moisture will continue a slow increase on the breezy southerly
winds into Sunday evening.

Showers and some isolated thunder will begin to impact
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late Sunday night with a
cold front finally moving across the region by midday Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will linger through most of
the day Monday with high pressure moving over the region out of
Canada Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridging will bring tranquil weather and near normal
temperatures to the region during the midweek period. Global
models then bring an upper level trough out into the Plains from
Wednesday night into Thursday...before moving this feature into
the Mississippi Valley region by Thursday night. This will spell
our next decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. The air mass
behind that system does not look at all that cool with
temperatures at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Pleasant flight conditions are expected through noon Sunday as a
ridge of high pressure moves over the region. No impacts to
aviation are expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch





000
FXUS63 KSGF 191920
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

It was a beautiful day across the Ozarks as short wave ridging
aloft and departing surface high pressure brought sunny skies
and warm temperatures to the region. Winds were picking up a bit
as the surface high slowly moves east with the winds along and
west of Highway 65 gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Mild weather is expected overnight tonight as the ridge aloft
continues to move east. Winds will remain breezy as surface low
pressure over the central plains makes a slow move towards the
area and the surface pressure gradient stays fairly tight.

Models have continued the trend of slower progression with the
system expected for late Sunday into Monday. Clouds and low level
moisture will continue a slow increase on the breezy southerly
winds into Sunday evening.

Showers and some isolated thunder will begin to impact
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late Sunday night with a
cold front finally moving across the region by midday Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will linger through most of
the day Monday with high pressure moving over the region out of
Canada Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridging will bring tranquil weather and near normal
temperatures to the region during the midweek period. Global
models then bring an upper level trough out into the Plains from
Wednesday night into Thursday...before moving this feature into
the Mississippi Valley region by Thursday night. This will spell
our next decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. The air mass
behind that system does not look at all that cool with
temperatures at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Pleasant flight conditions are expected through noon Sunday as a
ridge of high pressure moves over the region. No impacts to
aviation are expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch





000
FXUS63 KSGF 191815
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
115 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this
morning and will remain over the area into Sunday. This upper level
ridge is between an upper level low across the Gulf Coast states
and an upper level low across the southwestern U.S. Little change
will occur in this upper level pattern today into early Sunday.
Warm conditions can be expected today and Sunday as highs top out
in the middle to upper 70s both afternoons. Southerly winds will
be a little stronger with gusts over 20 mph expected both days.
Mostly sunny skies will occur today.

The upper level low over the southwestern U.S. will start tracking
to the northeast into the southern plains Sunday. The low will
shear and open as it lifts to the northeast. Precipitation will
not spread into the area during the afternoon on Sunday, but
clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the day on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track to the northeast
through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the upper level
trough moves northeast towards the region, another upper level
trough will track across the northern plains and will send a cold
front to the south. The cold front will sag into the area and the
weakening upper level will lift into the area and interact with
the front to bring showers to the area Sunday evening into Monday
evening. The southerly winds that occur today and Sunday will bring
increasing moisture into the region, resulting in the potential
for some thunderstorms with the shower activity Sunday night into
Monday. Instability will increase enough for thunderstorm
development, but will remain too weak for any severe potential.

The rain will move out of the area Monday night. Slightly cooler
conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday behind this system,
but will remain near normal for this time of year as highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s occur.

An upper level ridge will build back over the region during the
middle of the week with above normal temperatures expected. Highs
may approach the 80 degree mark across the western portions of the
forecast area.

A stronger storm system will then track across the Dakotas into the
great lakes region some time from Thursday into Friday. Medium
range models continue to differ on the timing of this event and
the exact track. A cold front will track across the region during
this time, being the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, we just need to pin point the exact timing and track
of this system to hammer out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Pleasant flight conditions are expected through noon Sunday as a
ridge of high pressure moves over the region. No impacts to
aviation are expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 191815
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
115 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this
morning and will remain over the area into Sunday. This upper level
ridge is between an upper level low across the Gulf Coast states
and an upper level low across the southwestern U.S. Little change
will occur in this upper level pattern today into early Sunday.
Warm conditions can be expected today and Sunday as highs top out
in the middle to upper 70s both afternoons. Southerly winds will
be a little stronger with gusts over 20 mph expected both days.
Mostly sunny skies will occur today.

The upper level low over the southwestern U.S. will start tracking
to the northeast into the southern plains Sunday. The low will
shear and open as it lifts to the northeast. Precipitation will
not spread into the area during the afternoon on Sunday, but
clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the day on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track to the northeast
through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the upper level
trough moves northeast towards the region, another upper level
trough will track across the northern plains and will send a cold
front to the south. The cold front will sag into the area and the
weakening upper level will lift into the area and interact with
the front to bring showers to the area Sunday evening into Monday
evening. The southerly winds that occur today and Sunday will bring
increasing moisture into the region, resulting in the potential
for some thunderstorms with the shower activity Sunday night into
Monday. Instability will increase enough for thunderstorm
development, but will remain too weak for any severe potential.

The rain will move out of the area Monday night. Slightly cooler
conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday behind this system,
but will remain near normal for this time of year as highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s occur.

An upper level ridge will build back over the region during the
middle of the week with above normal temperatures expected. Highs
may approach the 80 degree mark across the western portions of the
forecast area.

A stronger storm system will then track across the Dakotas into the
great lakes region some time from Thursday into Friday. Medium
range models continue to differ on the timing of this event and
the exact track. A cold front will track across the region during
this time, being the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, we just need to pin point the exact timing and track
of this system to hammer out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Pleasant flight conditions are expected through noon Sunday as a
ridge of high pressure moves over the region. No impacts to
aviation are expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Hatch









000
FXUS63 KEAX 191725
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Saturday - Monday:

Great weather will persist through much of the weekend with highs
today likely 10 degrees or so warmer than yesterday. Southerly winds
will increase later this morning and this, combined with mostly
clear skies, warmer temperatures aloft and increased thicknesses will
allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s. A few areas may climb
to near 80 degrees. Winds will decrease some overnight but winds
should remain in the 5 to 10 mph range which will keep the boundary
layer mixed enough to allow for relatively warm overnight with lows
in the lower to upper 50s.

Temperatures remain more complicated for Sunday. A weak frontal
boundary will be the focus for precipitation from northern Kansas
through Nebraska and into Iowa. Some of this may work as far south
and east to move into far northwestern Missouri late Saturday night,
aided by a weak low-level jet nosing into Nebraska. Aloft, a weak
upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Southern Plains
through the day. There will be little southward movement of the
surface boundary throughout the day, assuming stronger convection
doesn`t develop to our north and force any boundary further south.
With the slow eastward movement of the upper trough, it`s growing
more likely that precipitation chances will remain in our western
zones and especially across Kansas. So have continued to trend the
highest PoPs further west, keeping the eastern two-thirds of the
forecast area dry throughout the day Sunday. With the delayed onset
of precipitation and persistent warm advection, we should see highs
similar to Saturday in most areas. So at this time mid to upper 70s
look likely into Sunday. The one caveat is if cloud cover is thicker
than anticipated, high temperatures would not be nearly as high.
CAPE/shear combinations don`t look strong enough to support severe
weather Sunday with 0-6km shear generally less than 25kts and CAPE
generally less than 1000 J/kg.

Precipitation chances will linger into the day on Monday as the weak
upper trough slowly tracks through the area. Again the combination
of weak shear and modest instability suggest the threat of any
severe storms looks very low. Precipitation is expected to end from
northwest to southeast through the afternoon with cloud cover
thinning in a similar fashion. This complicates the temperature
forecast and areas in northwestern Missouri should see highs that
are warmer than central Missouri.

Tuesday - Friday:

We`ll see relatively cooler, though still close to normal,
temperatures Tuesday compared to the weekend. High pressure will
settle into the Plains/Upper Midwest so despite shortwave ridging,
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s look likely at this point.
That high will quickly shift to the east by Wednesday and the
shortwave ridge will start to be replaced by a trough moving into
the Northern Rockies. A strong low-level jet will develop in
response to the eastward moving trough. This should mainly focus
north of the forecast area but there may be some precipitation move
into northern Missouri as a result. The shortwave will then push a
cold a front through the area on Thursday. Depending on the timing
of the front, which is very uncertain due to large model
variability, there may be some potential for strong to severe
storms Thursday. The most favorable model solution for this is the
GFS, which brings the front through the area through the afternoon
hours allowing for good instability to build with favorable shear.
However the ECMWF is faster, moving things through the area much
earlier in the day. For now, will just continue a low chance mention
of severe weather until models come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Winds will gust as high as 26kts this afternoon. VFR thru the period
with mid clouds thickening up tomorrow ahead of the next rain maker.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 191718
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures are on tap across the
area as we start the weekend. As the surface ridge continues to
move slowly southeast, winds will veer to the south today, and
temperatures should easily climb to the low to middle 70s across
the forecast area. Warmest temperatures, approaching the upper
70s, are expected over mid Missouri and extending eastward along
the Missouri river toward the St. Louis metropolitan area.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Southerly return flow will continue across the forecast area
through Sunday as an upper level ridge builds from east central
Texas, its axis extending through Missouri and toward the Great
Lakes. The ridge will begin to shift eastward Sunday afternoon,
with Sunday remaining dry, but with increasing cloudiness ahead of
a few shortwaves progged to impact the forecast area beginning
Sunday night. Models have once again slowed down the onset of
precipitation over the forecast area Sunday night, with
precipitation expected to develop over extreme western Missouri
around 00Z, and enter mid Missouri by around 06Z. Currently expect
a bulk of the precipitation to occur over our area during the day
on Monday, in the form of showers with a few thunderstorms, when a
shallow mid-level trough and accompanying cold front move eastward
through the middle Mississippi Valley. Precipitation is
anticipated to gradually come to an end on Monday night, with the
front southeast of the area by 12Z Tuesday. While models are in
agreement with high pressure building into the region in the wake
of the cold front, the GFS is most aggressive with cooler
temperatures Tuesday, whereas the ECMWF and SREF output indicate
temperatures moderating to near normal.

Beyond Tuesday, not many changes have been made to the extended,
as models continue to indicate the development and amplification
of another ridge, in the wake of a departing and deepening trough
over the eastern CONUS, and another deepening trough over the
inter-mountain West. Wednesday and Wednesday night, the ECMWF
continues to indicate the potential for ridge-runner type
precipitation, mainly affecting the northern half of the county
warning area, though the main chance for precipitation in the
extended remains associated with an intensifying low pressure
system over the northern plains. There continues to be a
discrepancy in timing of this feature and its accompanying cold
front, which will impact our area some time during
Thursday/Thursday night time frame. Both the ECMWF and GFS
indicate a potential line of thunderstorms, though the ECMWF still
remains about 6 hours faster than the GFS with this feature.
Despite any timing differences, Friday will be cooler across the
area as northwest flow and high pressure build into the region
behind the front as the low lifts toward the Great Lakes.

JP

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR flight conditions expected through the period with bouts of
high cloudiness. Southeast winds today and tonight will veer to
southerly on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions expected through the period with bouts of
high cloudiness. Southeast winds today and tonight will veer to
southerly on Sunday.


Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 191129
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Saturday - Monday:

Great weather will persist through much of the weekend with highs
today likely 10 degrees or so warmer than yesterday. Southerly winds
will increase later this morning and this, combined with mostly
clear skies, warmer temperatures aloft and increased thicknesses will
allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s. A few areas may climb
to near 80 degrees. Winds will decrease some overnight but winds
should remain in the 5 to 10 mph range which will keep the boundary
layer mixed enough to allow for relatively warm overnight with lows
in the lower to upper 50s.

Temperatures remain more complicated for Sunday. A weak frontal
boundary will be the focus for precipitation from northern Kansas
through Nebraska and into Iowa. Some of this may work as far south
and east to move into far northwestern Missouri late Saturday night,
aided by a weak low-level jet nosing into Nebraska. Aloft, a weak
upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Southern Plains
through the day. There will be little southward movement of the
surface boundary throughout the day, assuming stronger convection
doesn`t develop to our north and force any boundary further south.
With the slow eastward movement of the upper trough, it`s growing
more likely that precipitation chances will remain in our western
zones and especially across Kansas. So have continued to trend the
highest PoPs further west, keeping the eastern two-thirds of the
forecast area dry throughout the day Sunday. With the delayed onset
of precipitation and persistent warm advection, we should see highs
similar to Saturday in most areas. So at this time mid to upper 70s
look likely into Sunday. The one caveat is if cloud cover is thicker
than anticipated, high temperatures would not be nearly as high.
CAPE/shear combinations don`t look strong enough to support severe
weather Sunday with 0-6km shear generally less than 25kts and CAPE
generally less than 1000 J/kg.

Precipitation chances will linger into the day on Monday as the weak
upper trough slowly tracks through the area. Again the combination
of weak shear and modest instability suggest the threat of any
severe storms looks very low. Precipitation is expected to end from
northwest to southeast through the afternoon with cloud cover
thinning in a similar fashion. This complicates the temperature
forecast and areas in northwestern Missouri should see highs that
are warmer than central Missouri.

Tuesday - Friday:

We`ll see relatively cooler, though still close to normal,
temperatures Tuesday compared to the weekend. High pressure will
settle into the Plains/Upper Midwest so despite shortwave ridging,
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s look likely at this point.
That high will quickly shift to the east by Wednesday and the
shortwave ridge will start to be replaced by a trough moving into
the Northern Rockies. A strong low-level jet will develop in
response to the eastward moving trough. This should mainly focus
north of the forecast area but there may be some precipitation move
into northern Missouri as a result. The shortwave will then push a
cold a front through the area on Thursday. Depending on the timing
of the front, which is very uncertain due to large model
variability, there may be some potential for strong to severe
storms Thursday. The most favorable model solution for this is the
GFS, which brings the front through the area through the afternoon
hours allowing for good instability to build with favorable shear.
However the ECMWF is faster, moving things through the area much
earlier in the day. For now, will just continue a low chance mention
of severe weather until models come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast period. Light
southerly winds this morning will increase by mid morning with winds
becoming sustained from the south around 15 to 20 mph with gusts of
25 to 30 mph. Winds will decrease around sunset but with the boundary
layer not completely decoupled should remain around 10 kts through
the night. A frontal boundary well to the northwest of the terminals
may bring convection into far northwestern Missouri/ far northeastern
Kansas. Any convection late in the valid period is expected to remain
well to the northwest of the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KLSX 191117
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
617 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures are on tap across the
area as we start the weekend. As the surface ridge continues to
move slowly southeast, winds will veer to the south today, and
temperatures should easily climb to the low to middle 70s across
the forecast area. Warmest temperatures, approaching the upper
70s, are expected over mid Missouri and extending eastward along
the Missouri river toward the St. Louis metropolitan area.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Southerly return flow will continue across the forecast area
through Sunday as an upper level ridge builds from east central
Texas, its axis extending through Missouri and toward the Great
Lakes. The ridge will begin to shift eastward Sunday afternoon,
with Sunday remaining dry, but with increasing cloudiness ahead of
a few shortwaves progged to impact the forecast area beginning
Sunday night. Models have once again slowed down the onset of
precipitation over the forecast area Sunday night, with
precipitation expected to develop over extreme western Missouri
around 00Z, and enter mid Missouri by around 06Z. Currently expect
a bulk of the precipitation to occur over our area during the day
on Monday, in the form of showers with a few thunderstorms, when a
shallow mid-level trough and accompanying cold front move eastward
through the middle Mississippi Valley. Precipitation is
anticipated to gradually come to an end on Monday night, with the
front southeast of the area by 12Z Tuesday. While models are in
agreement with high pressure building into the region in the wake
of the cold front, the GFS is most aggressive with cooler
temperatures Tuesday, whereas the ECMWF and SREF output indicate
temperatures moderating to near normal.

Beyond Tuesday, not many changes have been made to the extended,
as models continue to indicate the development and amplification
of another ridge, in the wake of a departing and deepening trough
over the eastern CONUS, and another deepening trough over the
inter-mountain West. Wednesday and Wednesday night, the ECMWF
continues to indicate the potential for ridge-runner type
precipitation, mainly affecting the northern half of the county
warning area, though the main chance for precipitation in the
extended remains associated with an intensifying low pressure
system over the northern plains. There continues to be a
discrepancy in timing of this feature and its accompanying cold
front, which will impact our area some time during
Thursday/Thursday night time frame. Both the ECMWF and GFS
indicate a potential line of thunderstorms, though the ECMWF still
remains about 6 hours faster than the GFS with this feature.
Despite any timing differences, Friday will be cooler across the
area as northwest flow and high pressure build into the region
behind the front as the low lifts toward the Great Lakes.

JP

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Surface ridge axis extending from the southern Lake Michigan
southwest through the Boot Heel of Missouri into Arkansas will
continue to drift eastward today. East wind will veer to the
south-southeast today as this occurs. VFR flight conditions will
continue to prevail.

Specifics for KSTL:

Surface ridge axis now east of the terminal will continue to move
east today. This will cause the wind to veer to the southeast by
mid-late this morning. VFR flight conditions will continue to prevail.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 191046
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this
morning and will remain over the area into Sunday. This upper level
ridge is between an upper level low across the Gulf Coast states
and an upper level low across the southwestern U.S. Little change
will occur in this upper level pattern today into early Sunday.
Warm conditions can be expected today and Sunday as highs top out
in the middle to upper 70s both afternoons. Southerly winds will
be a little stronger with gusts over 20 mph expected both days.
Mostly sunny skies will occur today.

The upper level low over the southwestern U.S. will start tracking
to the northeast into the southern plains Sunday. The low will
shear and open as it lifts to the northeast. Precipitation will
not spread into the area during the afternoon on Sunday, but
clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the day on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track to the northeast
through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the upper level
trough moves northeast towards the region, another upper level
trough will track across the northern plains and will send a cold
front to the south. The cold front will sag into the area and the
weakening upper level will lift into the area and interact with
the front to bring showers to the area Sunday evening into Monday
evening. The southerly winds that occur today and Sunday will bring
increasing moisture into the region, resulting in the potential
for some thunderstorms with the shower activity Sunday night into
Monday. Instability will increase enough for thunderstorm
development, but will remain too weak for any severe potential.

The rain will move out of the area Monday night. Slightly cooler
conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday behind this system,
but will remain near normal for this time of year as highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s occur.

An upper level ridge will build back over the region during the
middle of the week with above normal temperatures expected. Highs
may approach the 80 degree mark across the western portions of the
forecast area.

A stronger storm system will then track across the Dakotas into the
great lakes region some time from Thursday into Friday. Medium
range models continue to differ on the timing of this event and
the exact track. A cold front will track across the region during
this time, being the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, we just need to pin point the exact timing and track
of this system to hammer out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridge will build into the area for the next 24 hour
period and will keep VFR conditions in place. Winds will become
southeast to south through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191046
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this
morning and will remain over the area into Sunday. This upper level
ridge is between an upper level low across the Gulf Coast states
and an upper level low across the southwestern U.S. Little change
will occur in this upper level pattern today into early Sunday.
Warm conditions can be expected today and Sunday as highs top out
in the middle to upper 70s both afternoons. Southerly winds will
be a little stronger with gusts over 20 mph expected both days.
Mostly sunny skies will occur today.

The upper level low over the southwestern U.S. will start tracking
to the northeast into the southern plains Sunday. The low will
shear and open as it lifts to the northeast. Precipitation will
not spread into the area during the afternoon on Sunday, but
clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the day on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track to the northeast
through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the upper level
trough moves northeast towards the region, another upper level
trough will track across the northern plains and will send a cold
front to the south. The cold front will sag into the area and the
weakening upper level will lift into the area and interact with
the front to bring showers to the area Sunday evening into Monday
evening. The southerly winds that occur today and Sunday will bring
increasing moisture into the region, resulting in the potential
for some thunderstorms with the shower activity Sunday night into
Monday. Instability will increase enough for thunderstorm
development, but will remain too weak for any severe potential.

The rain will move out of the area Monday night. Slightly cooler
conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday behind this system,
but will remain near normal for this time of year as highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s occur.

An upper level ridge will build back over the region during the
middle of the week with above normal temperatures expected. Highs
may approach the 80 degree mark across the western portions of the
forecast area.

A stronger storm system will then track across the Dakotas into the
great lakes region some time from Thursday into Friday. Medium
range models continue to differ on the timing of this event and
the exact track. A cold front will track across the region during
this time, being the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, we just need to pin point the exact timing and track
of this system to hammer out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridge will build into the area for the next 24 hour
period and will keep VFR conditions in place. Winds will become
southeast to south through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190852
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures are on tap across the
area as we start the weekend. As the surface ridge continues to
move slowly southeast, winds will veer to the south today, and
temperatures should easily climb to the low to middle 70s across
the forecast area. Warmest temperatures, approaching the upper
70s, are expected over mid Missouri and extending eastward along
the Missouri river toward the St. Louis metropolitan area.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Southerly return flow will continue across the forecast area
through Sunday as an upper level ridge builds from east central
Texas, its axis extending through Missouri and toward the Great
Lakes. The ridge will begin to shift eastward Sunday afternoon,
with Sunday remaining dry, but with increasing cloudiness ahead of
a few shortwaves progged to impact the forecast area beginning
Sunday night. Models have once again slowed down the onset of
precipitation over the forecast area Sunday night, with
precipitation expected to develop over extreme western Missouri
around 00Z, and enter mid Missouri by around 06Z. Currently expect
a bulk of the precipitation to occur over our area during the day
on Monday, in the form of showers with a few thunderstorms, when a
shallow mid-level trough and accompanying cold front move eastward
through the middle Mississippi Valley. Precipitation is
anticipated to gradually come to an end on Monday night, with the
front southeast of the area by 12Z Tuesday. While models are in
agreement with high pressure building into the region in the wake
of the cold front, the GFS is most aggressive with cooler
temperatures Tuesday, whereas the ECMWF and SREF output indicate
temperatures moderating to near normal.

Beyond Tuesday, not many changes have been made to the extended,
as models continue to indicate the development and amplification
of another ridge, in the wake of a departing and deepening trough
over the eastern CONUS, and another deepening trough over the
inter-mountain West. Wednesday and Wednesday night, the ECMWF
continues to indicate the potential for ridge-runner type
precipitation, mainly affecting the northern half of the county
warning area, though the main chance for precipitation in the
extended remains associated with an intensifying low pressure
system over the northern plains. There continues to be a
discrepancy in timing of this feature and its accompanying cold
front, which will impact our area some time during
Thursday/Thursday night time frame. Both the ECMWF and GFS
indicate a potential line of thunderstorms, though the ECMWF still
remains about 6 hours faster than the GFS with this feature.
Despite any timing differences, Friday will be cooler across the
area as northwest flow and high pressure build into the region
behind the front as the low lifts toward the Great Lakes.

JP

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Surface ridge remains overhead with light winds and clear skies.
Still could see some radiational fog along river valley areas, so
kept mention in KSUS taf. Otherwise, winds to pickup a bit by mid
morning today from the southeast to south under clear skies for
rest of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge overhead with light winds and clear skies. Otherwise,
winds to pickup a bit by 15z Saturday from the southeast under
clear skies for rest of forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 190823
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Saturday - Monday:

Great weather will persist through much of the weekend with highs
today likely 10 degrees or so warmer than yesterday. Southerly winds
will increase later this morning and this, combined with mostly
clear skies, warmer temperatures aloft and increased thicknesses will
allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s. A few areas may climb
to near 80 degrees. Winds will decrease some overnight but winds
should remain in the 5 to 10 mph range which will keep the boundary
layer mixed enough to allow for relatively warm overnight with lows
in the lower to upper 50s.

Temperatures remain more complicated for Sunday. A weak frontal
boundary will be the focus for precipitation from northern Kansas
through Nebraska and into Iowa. Some of this may work as far south
and east to move into far northwestern Missouri late Saturday night,
aided by a weak low-level jet nosing into Nebraska. Aloft, a weak
upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Southern Plains
through the day. There will be little southward movement of the
surface boundary throughout the day, assuming stronger convection
doesn`t develop to our north and force any boundary further south.
With the slow eastward movement of the upper trough, it`s growing
more likely that precipitation chances will remain in our western
zones and especially across Kansas. So have continued to trend the
highest PoPs further west, keeping the eastern two-thirds of the
forecast area dry throughout the day Sunday. With the delayed onset
of precipitation and persistent warm advection, we should see highs
similar to Saturday in most areas. So at this time mid to upper 70s
look likely into Sunday. The one caveat is if cloud cover is thicker
than anticipated, high temperatures would not be nearly as high.
CAPE/shear combinations don`t look strong enough to support severe
weather Sunday with 0-6km shear generally less than 25kts and CAPE
generally less than 1000 J/kg.

Precipitation chances will linger into the day on Monday as the weak
upper trough slowly tracks through the area. Again the combination
of weak shear and modest instability suggest the threat of any
severe storms looks very low. Precipitation is expected to end from
northwest to southeast through the afternoon with cloud cover
thinning in a similar fashion. This complicates the temperature
forecast and areas in northwestern Missouri should see highs that
are warmer than central Missouri.

Tuesday - Friday:

We`ll see relatively cooler, though still close to normal,
temperatures Tuesday compared to the weekend. High pressure will
settle into the Plains/Upper Midwest so despite shortwave ridging,
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s look likely at this point.
That high will quickly shift to the east by Wednesday and the
shortwave ridge will start to be replaced by a trough moving into
the Northern Rockies. A strong low-level jet will develop in
response to the eastward moving trough. This should mainly focus
north of the forecast area but there may be some precipitation move
into northern Missouri as a result. The shortwave will then push a
cold a front through the area on Thursday. Depending on the timing
of the front, which is very uncertain due to large model
variability, there may be some potential for strong to severe
storms Thursday. The most favorable model solution for this is the
GFS, which brings the front through the area through the afternoon
hours allowing for good instability to build with favorable shear.
However the ECMWF is faster, moving things through the area much
earlier in the day. For now, will just continue a low chance mention
of severe weather until models come into better agreement.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions expected through the entire forecast. Light
southeasterly winds tonight will increase from the south within a few
hours of sunrise Saturday. Winds in the 15 to 20 kt sustained range
are expected with gusts of 25 to 30 kts. Winds will decrease and back
to the south/southeast around sunset as the boundary layer
stabilizes. Only a few to scattered high level clouds are expected.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KSGF 190741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this
morning and will remain over the area into Sunday. This upper level
ridge is between an upper level low across the Gulf Coast states
and an upper level low across the southwestern U.S. Little change
will occur in this upper level pattern today into early Sunday.
Warm conditions can be expected today and Sunday as highs top out
in the middle to upper 70s both afternoons. Southerly winds will
be a little stronger with gusts over 20 mph expected both days.
Mostly sunny skies will occur today.

The upper level low over the southwestern U.S. will start tracking
to the northeast into the southern plains Sunday. The low will
shear and open as it lifts to the northeast. Precipitation will
not spread into the area during the afternoon on Sunday, but
clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the day on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track to the northeast
through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the upper level
trough moves northeast towards the region, another upper level
trough will track across the northern plains and will send a cold
front to the south. The cold front will sag into the area and the
weakening upper level will lift into the area and interact with
the front to bring showers to the area Sunday evening into Monday
evening. The southerly winds that occur today and Sunday will bring
increasing moisture into the region, resulting in the potential
for some thunderstorms with the shower activity Sunday night into
Monday. Instability will increase enough for thunderstorm
development, but will remain too weak for any severe potential.

The rain will move out of the area Monday night. Slightly cooler
conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday behind this system,
but will remain near normal for this time of year as highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s occur.

An upper level ridge will build back over the region during the
middle of the week with above normal temperatures expected. Highs
may approach the 80 degree mark across the western portions of the
forecast area.

A stronger storm system will then track across the Dakotas into the
great lakes region some time from Thursday into Friday. Medium
range models continue to differ on the timing of this event and
the exact track. A cold front will track across the region during
this time, being the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, we just need to pin point the exact timing and track
of this system to hammer out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge will remaining place from the Great Lakes to east TX through
the taf period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 190741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this
morning and will remain over the area into Sunday. This upper level
ridge is between an upper level low across the Gulf Coast states
and an upper level low across the southwestern U.S. Little change
will occur in this upper level pattern today into early Sunday.
Warm conditions can be expected today and Sunday as highs top out
in the middle to upper 70s both afternoons. Southerly winds will
be a little stronger with gusts over 20 mph expected both days.
Mostly sunny skies will occur today.

The upper level low over the southwestern U.S. will start tracking
to the northeast into the southern plains Sunday. The low will
shear and open as it lifts to the northeast. Precipitation will
not spread into the area during the afternoon on Sunday, but
clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the day on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track to the northeast
through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the upper level
trough moves northeast towards the region, another upper level
trough will track across the northern plains and will send a cold
front to the south. The cold front will sag into the area and the
weakening upper level will lift into the area and interact with
the front to bring showers to the area Sunday evening into Monday
evening. The southerly winds that occur today and Sunday will bring
increasing moisture into the region, resulting in the potential
for some thunderstorms with the shower activity Sunday night into
Monday. Instability will increase enough for thunderstorm
development, but will remain too weak for any severe potential.

The rain will move out of the area Monday night. Slightly cooler
conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday behind this system,
but will remain near normal for this time of year as highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s occur.

An upper level ridge will build back over the region during the
middle of the week with above normal temperatures expected. Highs
may approach the 80 degree mark across the western portions of the
forecast area.

A stronger storm system will then track across the Dakotas into the
great lakes region some time from Thursday into Friday. Medium
range models continue to differ on the timing of this event and
the exact track. A cold front will track across the region during
this time, being the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, we just need to pin point the exact timing and track
of this system to hammer out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge will remaining place from the Great Lakes to east TX through
the taf period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 190741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this
morning and will remain over the area into Sunday. This upper level
ridge is between an upper level low across the Gulf Coast states
and an upper level low across the southwestern U.S. Little change
will occur in this upper level pattern today into early Sunday.
Warm conditions can be expected today and Sunday as highs top out
in the middle to upper 70s both afternoons. Southerly winds will
be a little stronger with gusts over 20 mph expected both days.
Mostly sunny skies will occur today.

The upper level low over the southwestern U.S. will start tracking
to the northeast into the southern plains Sunday. The low will
shear and open as it lifts to the northeast. Precipitation will
not spread into the area during the afternoon on Sunday, but
clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the day on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track to the northeast
through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the upper level
trough moves northeast towards the region, another upper level
trough will track across the northern plains and will send a cold
front to the south. The cold front will sag into the area and the
weakening upper level will lift into the area and interact with
the front to bring showers to the area Sunday evening into Monday
evening. The southerly winds that occur today and Sunday will bring
increasing moisture into the region, resulting in the potential
for some thunderstorms with the shower activity Sunday night into
Monday. Instability will increase enough for thunderstorm
development, but will remain too weak for any severe potential.

The rain will move out of the area Monday night. Slightly cooler
conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday behind this system,
but will remain near normal for this time of year as highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s occur.

An upper level ridge will build back over the region during the
middle of the week with above normal temperatures expected. Highs
may approach the 80 degree mark across the western portions of the
forecast area.

A stronger storm system will then track across the Dakotas into the
great lakes region some time from Thursday into Friday. Medium
range models continue to differ on the timing of this event and
the exact track. A cold front will track across the region during
this time, being the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, we just need to pin point the exact timing and track
of this system to hammer out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge will remaining place from the Great Lakes to east TX through
the taf period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 190741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently over the region early this
morning and will remain over the area into Sunday. This upper level
ridge is between an upper level low across the Gulf Coast states
and an upper level low across the southwestern U.S. Little change
will occur in this upper level pattern today into early Sunday.
Warm conditions can be expected today and Sunday as highs top out
in the middle to upper 70s both afternoons. Southerly winds will
be a little stronger with gusts over 20 mph expected both days.
Mostly sunny skies will occur today.

The upper level low over the southwestern U.S. will start tracking
to the northeast into the southern plains Sunday. The low will
shear and open as it lifts to the northeast. Precipitation will
not spread into the area during the afternoon on Sunday, but
clouds will begin to increase from west to east during the day on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track to the northeast
through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the upper level
trough moves northeast towards the region, another upper level
trough will track across the northern plains and will send a cold
front to the south. The cold front will sag into the area and the
weakening upper level will lift into the area and interact with
the front to bring showers to the area Sunday evening into Monday
evening. The southerly winds that occur today and Sunday will bring
increasing moisture into the region, resulting in the potential
for some thunderstorms with the shower activity Sunday night into
Monday. Instability will increase enough for thunderstorm
development, but will remain too weak for any severe potential.

The rain will move out of the area Monday night. Slightly cooler
conditions will occur on Monday and Tuesday behind this system,
but will remain near normal for this time of year as highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s occur.

An upper level ridge will build back over the region during the
middle of the week with above normal temperatures expected. Highs
may approach the 80 degree mark across the western portions of the
forecast area.

A stronger storm system will then track across the Dakotas into the
great lakes region some time from Thursday into Friday. Medium
range models continue to differ on the timing of this event and
the exact track. A cold front will track across the region during
this time, being the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, we just need to pin point the exact timing and track
of this system to hammer out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge will remaining place from the Great Lakes to east TX through
the taf period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KEAX 190526
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A beautiful stretch of days has kicked off across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri as shortwave ridging is overspreading the forecast
area. At the surface the ridge over the western Great Lakes
continues to move east, allowing a surface trough to move across the
High Plains, into the Central Plains. The result is a tightening
surface pressure gradient across Kansas. For today the tighter
pressure gradient will remain off to the west, keeping our area a
little lighter with the winds. That will generally change as we move
into Saturday. The tighter surface pressure gradient will move
across this forecast area, allowing the southerly winds to respond
by increasing through the early morning hours on Saturday. Expect
southerly winds to increase to around 15 mph by mid day Saturday,
with gusts up to 25 mph. In response to the warm air advection and
mid level ridging expect a very warm day on Saturday with highs
approaching 80 degrees across the entire area.

The focus then shifts to Sunday, and outdoor Easter festivities.
Models continue to show a solution that keeps the entire forecast
area dry through the morning. Good moisture advection through the
day on Sunday should prime the atmosphere adequately to kick of
showers and thunderstorms as the mid level trough approaches the
area from the west. At this time it still appears that the morning
to afternoon hours on Easter Sunday will remain dry, with showers
and thunderstorms overspreading the area Sunday evening through the
overnight hours. Marginal instability, mainly in conjunction with
the cooler temperatures aloft with the trough will yield values of
around 1000 J/kg of SB Cape for Sunday evening. With virtually no
deep layer shear it is highly unlikely that severe weather will
occur with any of these storms. Widespread light to moderate rain,
with embedded pockets of heavy rain will move through Sunday night
through Monday morning, bringing about .25 to .50 inch of rain
area-wide with a some locations perhaps receiving more. Most of the
rain should be clear of the area by mid day on Monday. Light
northwest surface winds and passing clouds could help keep
temperatures a bit lower for Monday, but still expect highs to
generally creep back into the lower to mid 70s by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at  336 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Upper pattern amplifies in the later portion of the forecast period
with chances for thunderstorm activity increasing during the middle
to end part of the work week.  Progressive ridge builds into the
central US for the early part of the week in response to departing
upper low over the Great Lakes and deepening trough moving into the
northwest US.

Surface high pressure should bring nice spring weather to the region
on Tuesday with temperatures at or slightly above normal.  Return
flow sets up in wake of departing high pressure and in advance of
surface low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.  As a result
there should be a corresponding increase in deeper low level
moisture and strengthening low-level warm advection through the day
on Wednesday with temperatures warming well into the 70s.
Strengthening nocturnal LLJ and deepening upper trough over the
northern Plains should provide for decent chance for thunderstorms
across the region especially Wednesday night into Thursday.  ECMWF a
bit faster with the progression of these features than GFS, however
both indicate the threat for precipitation dwindling during the day
on Friday as a surface cold front pushes through the forecast area
ushering in cooler and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions expected through the entire forecast. Light
southeasterly winds tonight will increase from the south within a few
hours of sunrise Saturday. Winds in the 15 to 20 kt sustained range
are expected with gusts of 25 to 30 kts. Winds will decrease and back
to the south/southeast around sunset as the boundary layer
stabilizes. Only a few to scattered high level clouds are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190455
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 853 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Quiet evening across the region as ridge of high pressure provides
clear sky, light wind and seasonal temperatures. Forecast on track
with no updates planned this evening of Good Friday.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Dry and tranquil weather will be the rule tonight. High pressure
centered in Ontario and extending into the southern Plains will
slowly retreat to the east, prompting light winds and clear skies.
Low temperatures will be seasonable for mid April.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Warmer and dry weather Saturday through Sunday.  An upper level
ridge will extend from eastern TX northeast into MO and IL on
Saturday with a surface ridge extending from the Great Lakes region
southwest into eastern MO.  Temperatures will easily warm into the
lower to middle 70s on Saturday with full sunshine.  Cloud cover
should increase late Saturday night into Sunday as weak shortwaves
move northeastward through the region ahead of the main mid-upper
level trough over the Plains.  Low level moisture will also increase
as surface/low level flow becomes southerly.  Showers and a few
thunderstorms should spread into at least the northwestern half of
our forecast area, north and west of STL Sunday night as the mid
level trough and cold front approaches our area with increasing
low-mid level moisture and instability.  The best chance of rain for
most of our area will occur on Monday as the mid level trough and
cold front moves east southeastward through our forecast area.  Most
of the showers should shift southeast of our forecast area by late
Monday night as the cold front also shifts southeast of the region.
The GFS model appears colder for Monday night and Tuesday with a
relatively deep upper level trough/low moving southeastward through
the Great Lakes region with a large surface ridge building
southeastward into our area behind the cold front.  The ECMWF model
is not quite as far south with this upper level trough/low and not
quite as cold with its 850 mb temperatures in our area.  A warming
trend should begin on Wednesday as an upper level ridge moves
eastward through the region, and strengthening southerly low level
winds bring warmer 850 mb temperatures northeastward into our area.
Convection may return as early as Wednesday across northeast MO and
west central IL due to relatively strong low-mid level warm air
advection ahead of weak shortwaves moving through the upper level
ridge.  The threat for convection will increase Wednesday night and
Thursday, at least over the northwest half of our forecast area, as
the upper level ridge shifts east of the region while a deep upper
level low moves eastward through the northern Plains, along with
continued low-mid level warm air advection ahead of weak sw flow
shortwaves moving through our region.  The GFS model depicts a band
or line of convection moving eastward through our forecast area
Thursday night as a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region
and drags a trailing cold front through our area.  The ECMWF model
is about 6 hours quicker with this front and its associated
convection.  Cooler air should filter southeastward into our area on
Friday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Surface ridge remains overhead with light winds and clear skies.
Still could see some radiational fog along river valley areas, so
kept mention in KSUS taf. Otherwise, winds to pickup a bit by mid
morning today from the southeast to south under clear skies for
rest of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge overhead with light winds and clear skies. Otherwise,
winds to pickup a bit by 15z Saturday from the southeast under
clear skies for rest of forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

Un-phased twin depressions were moving across the the United
States mainland today. Neither of which were impacting the Ozarks.
However, upper ridging in between these depressions was building
over the nation`s mid section, and will allow for a fantastic
weekend across the Ozarks.

Today was difficult for anyone having to be indoors. Under full
sunshine, temperatures warmed to near 70, with light and variable
winds.

As a surface ridge axis shifts into the eastern Ozarks tonight,
light southerly winds will commence for most areas. Look for
overnight lows to fall into the 40s.

Saturday will be another fabulous day for outdoor activities.
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70s will feel
great. South winds will range from around 5 mph in south central
Missouri, to around 15 mph in the Osage Plains.

Perhaps a little more cloud cover on Sunday can be expected, as a
storm system approaches from the west. We still think mostly dry
conditions will unfold for Sunday, with highs back into the 70s.
It`s not until Sunday night or early Monday morning, is when rain
chances are back in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)

Accompanied by a cold front, our next storm system approaches the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. Models indicate surface
dew points increasing into the middle 50s. I suspect cloud cover
will limit diurnal warming, therefore, instability will be on the
low end. Updraft intensity will be affected by this, with general
showers and thunderstorms the primary risk with Monday`s weather.

After lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s Monday night,
temperatures will rebound back into the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Tuesday. A warming trend will ensue from there, with readings in
the upper 70s by Wednesday and Thursday. Wouldn`t be surprised to
observe some low 80s out toward Joplin or Pittsburg. No
precipitation is expected Tuesday through Thursday morning.

However, by Thursday afternoon and evening, both the GFS and the
Euro bring in a spring like storm system across the Dakotas. Weak
lift along with an approaching cold front should trigger some
convection across the Ozarks, either Thursday afternoon or night.
This system could be our next shot at some active spring like
weather.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the beautiful spring weather !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge will remaining place from the Great Lakes to east TX through
the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 190430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

Un-phased twin depressions were moving across the the United
States mainland today. Neither of which were impacting the Ozarks.
However, upper ridging in between these depressions was building
over the nation`s mid section, and will allow for a fantastic
weekend across the Ozarks.

Today was difficult for anyone having to be indoors. Under full
sunshine, temperatures warmed to near 70, with light and variable
winds.

As a surface ridge axis shifts into the eastern Ozarks tonight,
light southerly winds will commence for most areas. Look for
overnight lows to fall into the 40s.

Saturday will be another fabulous day for outdoor activities.
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70s will feel
great. South winds will range from around 5 mph in south central
Missouri, to around 15 mph in the Osage Plains.

Perhaps a little more cloud cover on Sunday can be expected, as a
storm system approaches from the west. We still think mostly dry
conditions will unfold for Sunday, with highs back into the 70s.
It`s not until Sunday night or early Monday morning, is when rain
chances are back in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)

Accompanied by a cold front, our next storm system approaches the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. Models indicate surface
dew points increasing into the middle 50s. I suspect cloud cover
will limit diurnal warming, therefore, instability will be on the
low end. Updraft intensity will be affected by this, with general
showers and thunderstorms the primary risk with Monday`s weather.

After lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s Monday night,
temperatures will rebound back into the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Tuesday. A warming trend will ensue from there, with readings in
the upper 70s by Wednesday and Thursday. Wouldn`t be surprised to
observe some low 80s out toward Joplin or Pittsburg. No
precipitation is expected Tuesday through Thursday morning.

However, by Thursday afternoon and evening, both the GFS and the
Euro bring in a spring like storm system across the Dakotas. Weak
lift along with an approaching cold front should trigger some
convection across the Ozarks, either Thursday afternoon or night.
This system could be our next shot at some active spring like
weather.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the beautiful spring weather !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge will remaining place from the Great Lakes to east TX through
the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190155
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
855 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 853 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Quiet evening across the region as ridge of high pressure provides
clear sky, light wind and seasonal temperatures. Forecast on track
with no updates planned this evening of Good Friday.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Dry and tranquil weather will be the rule tonight. High pressure
centered in Ontario and extending into the southern Plains will
slowly retreat to the east, prompting light winds and clear skies.
Low temperatures will be seasonable for mid April.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Warmer and dry weather Saturday through Sunday.  An upper level
ridge will extend from eastern TX northeast into MO and IL on
Saturday with a surface ridge extending from the Great Lakes region
southwest into eastern MO.  Temperatures will easily warm into the
lower to middle 70s on Saturday with full sunshine.  Cloud cover
should increase late Saturday night into Sunday as weak shortwaves
move northeastward through the region ahead of the main mid-upper
level trough over the Plains.  Low level moisture will also increase
as surface/low level flow becomes southerly.  Showers and a few
thunderstorms should spread into at least the northwestern half of
our forecast area, north and west of STL Sunday night as the mid
level trough and cold front approaches our area with increasing
low-mid level moisture and instability.  The best chance of rain for
most of our area will occur on Monday as the mid level trough and
cold front moves east southeastward through our forecast area.  Most
of the showers should shift southeast of our forecast area by late
Monday night as the cold front also shifts southeast of the region.
The GFS model appears colder for Monday night and Tuesday with a
relatively deep upper level trough/low moving southeastward through
the Great Lakes region with a large surface ridge building
southeastward into our area behind the cold front.  The ECMWF model
is not quite as far south with this upper level trough/low and not
quite as cold with its 850 mb temperatures in our area.  A warming
trend should begin on Wednesday as an upper level ridge moves
eastward through the region, and strengthening southerly low level
winds bring warmer 850 mb temperatures northeastward into our area.
Convection may return as early as Wednesday across northeast MO and
west central IL due to relatively strong low-mid level warm air
advection ahead of weak shortwaves moving through the upper level
ridge.  The threat for convection will increase Wednesday night and
Thursday, at least over the northwest half of our forecast area, as
the upper level ridge shifts east of the region while a deep upper
level low moves eastward through the northern Plains, along with
continued low-mid level warm air advection ahead of weak sw flow
shortwaves moving through our region.  The GFS model depicts a band
or line of convection moving eastward through our forecast area
Thursday night as a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region
and drags a trailing cold front through our area.  The ECMWF model
is about 6 hours quicker with this front and its associated
convection.  Cooler air should filter southeastward into our area on
Friday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Surface ridge overhead with light winds and clear skies. Could see
some radiational fog along river valley areas, so kept mention in
KSUS taf for late tonight. Otherwise, winds to pickup a bit by mid
morning on Saturday from the southeast to south under clear skies for
rest of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge overhead with light winds and clear skies. Otherwise,
winds to pickup a bit by 15z Saturday from the southeast under
clear skies for rest of forecast period.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 182336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Dry and tranquil weather will be the rule tonight. High pressure
centered in Ontario and extending into the southern Plains will
slowly retreat to the east, prompting light winds and clear skies.
Low temperatures will be seasonable for mid April.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Warmer and dry weather Saturday through Sunday.  An upper level
ridge will extend from eastern TX northeast into MO and IL on
Saturday with a surface ridge extending from the Great Lakes region
southwest into eastern MO.  Temperatures will easily warm into the
lower to middle 70s on Saturday with full sunshine.  Cloud cover
should increase late Saturday night into Sunday as weak shortwaves
move northeastward through the region ahead of the main mid-upper
level trough over the Plains.  Low level moisture will also increase
as surface/low level flow becomes southerly.  Showers and a few
thunderstorms should spread into at least the northwestern half of
our forecast area, north and west of STL Sunday night as the mid
level trough and cold front approaches our area with increasing
low-mid level moisture and instability.  The best chance of rain for
most of our area will occur on Monday as the mid level trough and
cold front moves east southeastward through our forecast area.  Most
of the showers should shift southeast of our forecast area by late
Monday night as the cold front also shifts southeast of the region.
The GFS model appears colder for Monday night and Tuesday with a
relatively deep upper level trough/low moving southeastward through
the Great Lakes region with a large surface ridge building
southeastward into our area behind the cold front.  The ECMWF model
is not quite as far south with this upper level trough/low and not
quite as cold with its 850 mb temperatures in our area.  A warming
trend should begin on Wednesday as an upper level ridge moves
eastward through the region, and strengthening southerly low level
winds bring warmer 850 mb temperatures northeastward into our area.
Convection may return as early as Wednesday across northeast MO and
west central IL due to relatively strong low-mid level warm air
advection ahead of weak shortwaves moving through the upper level
ridge.  The threat for convection will increase Wednesday night and
Thursday, at least over the northwest half of our forecast area, as
the upper level ridge shifts east of the region while a deep upper
level low moves eastward through the northern Plains, along with
continued low-mid level warm air advection ahead of weak sw flow
shortwaves moving through our region.  The GFS model depicts a band
or line of convection moving eastward through our forecast area
Thursday night as a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region
and drags a trailing cold front through our area.  The ECMWF model
is about 6 hours quicker with this front and its associated
convection.  Cooler air should filter southeastward into our area on
Friday.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Surface ridge overhead with light winds and clear skies. Could see
some radiational fog along river valley areas, so kept mention in
KSUS taf for late tonight. Otherwise, winds to pickup a bit by mid
morning on Saturday from the southeast to south under clear skies for
rest of forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge overhead with light winds and clear skies. Otherwise,
winds to pickup a bit by 15z Saturday from the southeast under
clear skies for rest of forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 182316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A beautiful stretch of days has kicked off across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri as shortwave ridging is overspreading the forecast
area. At the surface the ridge over the western Great Lakes
continues to move east, allowing a surface trough to move across the
High Plains, into the Central Plains. The result is a tightening
surface pressure gradient across Kansas. For today the tighter
pressure gradient will remain off to the west, keeping our area a
little lighter with the winds. That will generally change as we move
into Saturday. The tighter surface pressure gradient will move
across this forecast area, allowing the southerly winds to respond
by increasing through the early morning hours on Saturday. Expect
southerly winds to increase to around 15 mph by mid day Saturday,
with gusts up to 25 mph. In response to the warm air advection and
mid level ridging expect a very warm day on Saturday with highs
approaching 80 degrees across the entire area.

The focus then shifts to Sunday, and outdoor Easter festivities.
Models continue to show a solution that keeps the entire forecast
area dry through the morning. Good moisture advection through the
day on Sunday should prime the atmosphere adequately to kick of
showers and thunderstorms as the mid level trough approaches the
area from the west. At this time it still appears that the morning
to afternoon hours on Easter Sunday will remain dry, with showers
and thunderstorms overspreading the area Sunday evening through the
overnight hours. Marginal instability, mainly in conjunction with
the cooler temperatures aloft with the trough will yield values of
around 1000 J/kg of SB Cape for Sunday evening. With virtually no
deep layer shear it is highly unlikely that severe weather will
occur with any of these storms. Widespread light to moderate rain,
with embedded pockets of heavy rain will move through Sunday night
through Monday morning, bringing about .25 to .50 inch of rain
area-wide with a some locations perhaps receiving more. Most of the
rain should be clear of the area by mid day on Monday. Light
northwest surface winds and passing clouds could help keep
temperatures a bit lower for Monday, but still expect highs to
generally creep back into the lower to mid 70s by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at  336 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Upper pattern amplifies in the later portion of the forecast period
with chances for thunderstorm activity increasing during the middle
to end part of the work week.  Progressive ridge builds into the
central US for the early part of the week in response to departing
upper low over the Great Lakes and deepening trough moving into the
northwest US.

Surface high pressure should bring nice spring weather to the region
on Tuesday with temperatures at or slightly above normal.  Return
flow sets up in wake of departing high pressure and in advance of
surface low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.  As a result
there should be a corresponding increase in deeper low level
moisture and strengthening low-level warm advection through the day
on Wednesday with temperatures warming well into the 70s.
Strengthening nocturnal LLJ and deepening upper trough over the
northern Plains should provide for decent chance for thunderstorms
across the region especially Wednesday night into Thursday.  ECMWF a
bit faster with the progression of these features than GFS, however
both indicate the threat for precipitation dwindling during the day
on Friday as a surface cold front pushes through the forecast area
ushering in cooler and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions with increasing and gusty southerly winds by mid
Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KSGF 182306
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

Un-phased twin depressions were moving across the the United
States mainland today. Neither of which were impacting the Ozarks.
However, upper ridging in between these depressions was building
over the nation`s mid section, and will allow for a fantastic
weekend across the Ozarks.

Today was difficult for anyone having to be indoors. Under full
sunshine, temperatures warmed to near 70, with light and variable
winds.

As a surface ridge axis shifts into the eastern Ozarks tonight,
light southerly winds will commence for most areas. Look for
overnight lows to fall into the 40s.

Saturday will be another fabulous day for outdoor activities.
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70s will feel
great. South winds will range from around 5 mph in south central
Missouri, to around 15 mph in the Osage Plains.

Perhaps a little more cloud cover on Sunday can be expected, as a
storm system approaches from the west. We still think mostly dry
conditions will unfold for Sunday, with highs back into the 70s.
It`s not until Sunday night or early Monday morning, is when rain
chances are back in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)

Accompanied by a cold front, our next storm system approaches the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. Models indicate surface
dew points increasing into the middle 50s. I suspect cloud cover
will limit diurnal warming, therefore, instability will be on the
low end. Updraft intensity will be affected by this, with general
showers and thunderstorms the primary risk with Monday`s weather.

After lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s Monday night,
temperatures will rebound back into the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Tuesday. A warming trend will ensue from there, with readings in
the upper 70s by Wednesday and Thursday. Wouldn`t be surprised to
observe some low 80s out toward Joplin or Pittsburg. No
precipitation is expected Tuesday through Thursday morning.

However, by Thursday afternoon and evening, both the GFS and the
Euro bring in a spring like storm system across the Dakotas. Weak
lift along with an approaching cold front should trigger some
convection across the Ozarks, either Thursday afternoon or night.
This system could be our next shot at some active spring like
weather.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the beautiful spring weather !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge will remaining place from the Great Lakes to east TX through
the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 182306
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
606 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

Un-phased twin depressions were moving across the the United
States mainland today. Neither of which were impacting the Ozarks.
However, upper ridging in between these depressions was building
over the nation`s mid section, and will allow for a fantastic
weekend across the Ozarks.

Today was difficult for anyone having to be indoors. Under full
sunshine, temperatures warmed to near 70, with light and variable
winds.

As a surface ridge axis shifts into the eastern Ozarks tonight,
light southerly winds will commence for most areas. Look for
overnight lows to fall into the 40s.

Saturday will be another fabulous day for outdoor activities.
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70s will feel
great. South winds will range from around 5 mph in south central
Missouri, to around 15 mph in the Osage Plains.

Perhaps a little more cloud cover on Sunday can be expected, as a
storm system approaches from the west. We still think mostly dry
conditions will unfold for Sunday, with highs back into the 70s.
It`s not until Sunday night or early Monday morning, is when rain
chances are back in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)

Accompanied by a cold front, our next storm system approaches the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. Models indicate surface
dew points increasing into the middle 50s. I suspect cloud cover
will limit diurnal warming, therefore, instability will be on the
low end. Updraft intensity will be affected by this, with general
showers and thunderstorms the primary risk with Monday`s weather.

After lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s Monday night,
temperatures will rebound back into the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Tuesday. A warming trend will ensue from there, with readings in
the upper 70s by Wednesday and Thursday. Wouldn`t be surprised to
observe some low 80s out toward Joplin or Pittsburg. No
precipitation is expected Tuesday through Thursday morning.

However, by Thursday afternoon and evening, both the GFS and the
Euro bring in a spring like storm system across the Dakotas. Weak
lift along with an approaching cold front should trigger some
convection across the Ozarks, either Thursday afternoon or night.
This system could be our next shot at some active spring like
weather.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the beautiful spring weather !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge will remaining place from the Great Lakes to east TX through
the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 182037
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A beautiful stretch of days has kicked off across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri as shortwave ridging is overspreading the forecast
area. At the surface the ridge over the western Great Lakes
continues to move east, allowing a surface trough to move across the
High Plains, into the Central Plains. The result is a tightening
surface pressure gradient across Kansas. For today the tighter
pressure gradient will remain off to the west, keeping our area a
little lighter with the winds. That will generally change as we move
into Saturday. The tighter surface pressure gradient will move
across this forecast area, allowing the southerly winds to respond
by increasing through the early morning hours on Saturday. Expect
southerly winds to increase to around 15 mph by mid day Saturday,
with gusts up to 25 mph. In response to the warm air advection and
mid level ridging expect a very warm day on Saturday with highs
approaching 80 degrees across the entire area.

The focus then shifts to Sunday, and outdoor Easter festivities.
Models continue to show a solution that keeps the entire forecast
area dry through the morning. Good moisture advection through the
day on Sunday should prime the atmosphere adequately to kick of
showers and thunderstorms as the mid level trough approaches the
area from the west. At this time it still appears that the morning
to afternoon hours on Easter Sunday will remain dry, with showers
and thunderstorms overspreading the area Sunday evening through the
overnight hours. Marginal instability, mainly in conjunction with
the cooler temperatures aloft with the trough will yield values of
around 1000 J/kg of SB Cape for Sunday evening. With virtually no
deep layer shear it is highly unlikely that severe weather will
occur with any of these storms. Widespread light to moderate rain,
with embedded pockets of heavy rain will move through Sunday night
through Monday morning, bringing about .25 to .50 inch of rain
area-wide with a some locations perhaps receiving more. Most of the
rain should be clear of the area by mid day on Monday. Light
northwest surface winds and passing clouds could help keep
temperatures a bit lower for Monday, but still expect highs to
generally creep back into the lower to mid 70s by Monday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at  336 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Upper pattern amplifies in the later portion of the forecast period
with chances for thunderstorm activity increasing during the middle
to end part of the work week.  Progressive ridge builds into the
central US for the early part of the week in response to departing
upper low over the Great Lakes and deepening trough moving into the
northwest US.

Surface high pressure should bring nice spring weather to the region
on Tuesday with temperatures at or slightly above normal.  Return
flow sets up in wake of departing high pressure and in advance of
surface low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.  As a result
there should be a corresponding increase in deeper low level
moisture and strengthening low-level warm advection through the day
on Wednesday with temperatures warming well into the 70s.
Strengthening nocturnal LLJ and deepening upper trough over the
northern Plains should provide for decent chance for thunderstorms
across the region especially Wednesday night into Thursday.  ECMWF a
bit faster with the progression of these features than GFS, however
both indicate the threat for precipitation dwindling during the day
on Friday as a surface cold front pushes through the forecast area
ushering in cooler and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions to persist through the remainder of the
forecast period. Light southeast winds will persist until mid morning
on Saturday when they`ll likely pick up to around 15 to 20 kts, with
gusts up to 25 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KLSX 182004
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
304 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Dry and tranquil weather will be the rule tonight. High pressure
centered in Ontario and extending into the southern Plains will
slowly retreat to the east, prompting light winds and clear skies.
Low temperatures will be seasonable for mid April.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Warmer and dry weather Saturday through Sunday.  An upper level
ridge will extend from eastern TX northeast into MO and IL on
Saturday with a surface ridge extending from the Great Lakes region
southwest into eastern MO.  Temperatures will easily warm into the
lower to middle 70s on Saturday with full sunshine.  Cloud cover
should increase late Saturday night into Sunday as weak shortwaves
move northeastward through the region ahead of the main mid-upper
level trough over the Plains.  Low level moisture will also increase
as surface/low level flow becomes southerly.  Showers and a few
thunderstorms should spread into at least the northwestern half of
our forecast area, north and west of STL Sunday night as the mid
level trough and cold front approaches our area with increasing
low-mid level moisture and instability.  The best chance of rain for
most of our area will occur on Monday as the mid level trough and
cold front moves east southeastward through our forecast area.  Most
of the showers should shift southeast of our forecast area by late
Monday night as the cold front also shifts southeast of the region.
The GFS model appears colder for Monday night and Tuesday with a
relatively deep upper level trough/low moving southeastward through
the Great Lakes region with a large surface ridge building
southeastward into our area behind the cold front.  The ECMWF model
is not quite as far south with this upper level trough/low and not
quite as cold with its 850 mb temperatures in our area.  A warming
trend should begin on Wednesday as an upper level ridge moves
eastward through the region, and strengthening southerly low level
winds bring warmer 850 mb temperatures northeastward into our area.
Convection may return as early as Wednesday across northeast MO and
west central IL due to relatively strong low-mid level warm air
advection ahead of weak shortwaves moving through the upper level
ridge.  The threat for convection will increase Wednesday night and
Thursday, at least over the northwest half of our forecast area, as
the upper level ridge shifts east of the region while a deep upper
level low moves eastward through the northern Plains, along with
continued low-mid level warm air advection ahead of weak sw flow
shortwaves moving through our region.  The GFS model depicts a band
or line of convection moving eastward through our forecast area
Thursday night as a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region
and drags a trailing cold front through our area.  The ECMWF model
is about 6 hours quicker with this front and its associated
convection.  Cooler air should filter southeastward into our area on
Friday.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

High pressure will dominate the region resulting in clear skies
and light winds. Some radiational fog will be possible early
Saturday morning at KSUS where the wind will likely be calm. VFR
conditions will continue on Saturday with increasing southeasterly
winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

High pressure will dominate the region resulting in clear skies
and light winds. VFR conditions will continue on Saturday with
increasing southeasterly winds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181955
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

Un-phased twin depressions were moving across the the United
States mainland today. Neither of which were impacting the Ozarks.
However, upper ridging in between these depressions was building
over the nation`s mid section, and will allow for a fantastic
weekend across the Ozarks.

Today was difficult for anyone having to be indoors. Under full
sunshine, temperatures warmed to near 70, with light and variable
winds.

As a surface ridge axis shifts into the eastern Ozarks tonight,
light southerly winds will commence for most areas. Look for
overnight lows to fall into the 40s.

Saturday will be another fabulous day for outdoor activities.
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70s will feel
great. South winds will range from around 5 mph in south central
Missouri, to around 15 mph in the Osage Plains.

Perhaps a little more cloud cover on Sunday can be expected, as a
storm system approaches from the west. We still think mostly dry
conditions will unfold for Sunday, with highs back into the 70s.
It`s not until Sunday night or early Monday morning, is when rain
chances are back in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)

Accompanied by a cold front, our next storm system approaches the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. Models indicate surface
dew points increasing into the middle 50s. I suspect cloud cover
will limit diurnal warming, therefore, instability will be on the
low end. Updraft intensity will be affected by this, with general
showers and thunderstorms the primary risk with Monday`s weather.

After lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s Monday night,
temperatures will rebound back into the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Tuesday. A warming trend will ensue from there, with readings in
the upper 70s by Wednesday and Thursday. Wouldn`t be surprised to
observe some low 80s out toward Joplin or Pittsburg. No
precipitation is expected Tuesday through Thursday morning.

However, by Thursday afternoon and evening, both the GFS and the
Euro bring in a spring like storm system across the Dakotas. Weak
lift along with an approaching cold front should trigger some
convection across the Ozarks, either Thursday afternoon or night.
This system could be our next shot at some active spring like
weather.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the beautiful spring weather !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Kardell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181955
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

Un-phased twin depressions were moving across the the United
States mainland today. Neither of which were impacting the Ozarks.
However, upper ridging in between these depressions was building
over the nation`s mid section, and will allow for a fantastic
weekend across the Ozarks.

Today was difficult for anyone having to be indoors. Under full
sunshine, temperatures warmed to near 70, with light and variable
winds.

As a surface ridge axis shifts into the eastern Ozarks tonight,
light southerly winds will commence for most areas. Look for
overnight lows to fall into the 40s.

Saturday will be another fabulous day for outdoor activities.
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70s will feel
great. South winds will range from around 5 mph in south central
Missouri, to around 15 mph in the Osage Plains.

Perhaps a little more cloud cover on Sunday can be expected, as a
storm system approaches from the west. We still think mostly dry
conditions will unfold for Sunday, with highs back into the 70s.
It`s not until Sunday night or early Monday morning, is when rain
chances are back in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)

Accompanied by a cold front, our next storm system approaches the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. Models indicate surface
dew points increasing into the middle 50s. I suspect cloud cover
will limit diurnal warming, therefore, instability will be on the
low end. Updraft intensity will be affected by this, with general
showers and thunderstorms the primary risk with Monday`s weather.

After lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s Monday night,
temperatures will rebound back into the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Tuesday. A warming trend will ensue from there, with readings in
the upper 70s by Wednesday and Thursday. Wouldn`t be surprised to
observe some low 80s out toward Joplin or Pittsburg. No
precipitation is expected Tuesday through Thursday morning.

However, by Thursday afternoon and evening, both the GFS and the
Euro bring in a spring like storm system across the Dakotas. Weak
lift along with an approaching cold front should trigger some
convection across the Ozarks, either Thursday afternoon or night.
This system could be our next shot at some active spring like
weather.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the beautiful spring weather !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Kardell






000
FXUS63 KLSX 181932
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
232 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Dry and tranquil weather will be the rule tonight. High pressure
centered in Ontario and extending into the southern Plains will
slowly retreat to the east, prompting light winds and clear skies.
Low temperatures will be seasonable for mid April.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A big warm up is on the way for the weekend as a ridge amplifies
over the middle Mississippi Valley and southerly flow returns to
the region. Temperatures across the area should have no trouble
reaching the mid 70s on Saturday, and mid to upper 70s Sunday,
with some locations perhaps flirting with the 80 degree mark.
However, by Sunday evening, the 500mb ridge axis will shift east
of the area and flatten slightly, allowing for quasi-zonal to
southwesterly flow over the area late Sunday and into Monday. A
shortwave is progged to move into western Missouri late on Sunday,
and current feeling is that instability will be sufficient for some
thunderstorms to occur, given the warm temperatures and ample
moisture ahead of the system thanks to several days of return
flow. Models have slowed down the progression of this feature
somewhat, thus it looks like this initial shortwave and associated
precipitation will move east across Missouri Sunday night,
leaving much of the day Sunday dry across the forecast area. On
Monday, a reinforcing trough and cold front will move through the
area in the wake of the shortwave, continuing the chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the day on Monday and Monday
night. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that the front and
associated precipitation will be south of the forecast area by 12Z
Tuesday. Temperatures are still expected to remain near or
slightly above normal.

Beyond next Tuesday, expect another warm up across the area, as
the trough shifts east and deepens over the eastern CONUS and
ridging once again takes place over the middle Mississippi Valley.
Southerly flow will continue to increase Wednesday and Thursday,
with a chance of thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday night
and Thursday in part due to the strengthening warm advection.
Temperatures during this time frame are expected to be in the
middle to upper 70s, continuing the above normal trend. An
intensifying low pressure system over the northern plains is
anticipated to impact the area late next week, though model
agreement is currently lacking in its progression. Thus, feel that
continued warming temperatures and broad brushed chance PoPs
through Thursday are sufficient at this time.

JP

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

High pressure will dominate the region resulting in clear skies
and light winds. Some radiational fog will be possible early
Saturday morning at KSUS where the wind will likely be calm. VFR
conditions will continue on Saturday with increasing southeasterly
winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

High pressure will dominate the region resulting in clear skies
and light winds. VFR conditions will continue on Saturday with
increasing southeasterly winds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 181723
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Friday - Sunday:

We`ll start the weekend with warm and dry weather as short-wave
ridging moves across the center of the country. Surface and low-level
flow will be weak today as high pressure slowly moves east. With
anticipated near full insolation, the area should be able to climb to
or just above normal temperatures with highs int he upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Winds will be stronger on Saturday and from the
south. With the upper ridge moving over the area, thickness values
increase and this should result in high temperatures that are well
above normal. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across
the forecast area.

For Sunday, another very mild day is expected but the possibility of
more cloud cover and precipitation later in the day makes the
forecast a bit more complicated. Thicknesses may be slightly lower
but mid-level temperatures may be several degrees warmer as warm
advection persists ahead of a weak upper system. So thinking
temperatures should again top out in the mid to upper 70s by the
time any precipitation moves.

With regards to precipitation chances for Sunday, the main trend has
been to slow things down a bit and keep the better chances to the
west. The system coming from the southwest is rather weak and
doesn`t lead to a strong low-level jet. What little LLJ there is, is
more focused into Nebraska and may just clip far northwestern
Missouri during the overnight hours. That LLJ dissipates during the
day and with no real upper jet pushing the southern wave east, its
progression is slow and thus any forcing for ascent associated with
it will be delayed as well. So during the day time, have kept the
highest PoPs to the western forecast area and removed them for our
eastern tier or two of counties.

Better precipitation chances will come during the overnight as the
upper trough moves overhead. But again, this entire system looks
rather weak with little jet energy associated with it. So the best
chances will closely tied to the weak surface/low-level boundary
moving into/through the area.

Monday - Friday:

This period of time looks to become more active, especially towards
the mid to late week time frame. A deep and nearly cutoff low will
develop over the western CONUS with persistent southerly flow
bringing increased moisture into the region. Through the middle of
the week this should mainly set up warm advection, mostly nocturnal
convection as the LLJ really intensifies over the Plains. However,
by Thursday into Friday, that trough begins to eject across the
Plains with widespread convection becoming more likely. But, there
are significant timing and structure issues between the GEFS, GFS
and ECMWF. The ECMWF is the farthest east and also indicates a
negative tilt and thus more dynamic system. The GFS is about a day
behind and more neutral to positively tilted. The GEFS mean is
somewhere in between from Thursday into Friday but eventually shows
better agreement to the GFS by the very end of the week. Given the
uncertainties, confidence is not especially high at this point time
for any particular solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions to persist through the remainder of the
forecast period. Light southeast winds will persist until mid morning
on Saturday when they`ll likely pick up to around 15 to 20 kts, with
gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KLSX 181709
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1209 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A tranquil Friday looks to be on tap, as the weakening cold front
continues moving southeast out of our area this morning, with any
accompanying shower activity already southeast of our area over
the Missouri bootheel. Skies over central and northeast Missouri
as well as west central Illinois are clear, and expect the
clearing trend to continue from north to south through the morning
hours for the remainder of the forecast area. Rising heights at
500mb will overspread the area today, as a ridge begins to develop
over the middle Mississippi Valley in the wake of the departing
trough. Temperatures today will climb to the mid 60s north to
around 70 for the St. Louis metro area and southern zones, fairly
close to, or even slightly above normal for this time of year.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A big warm up is on the way for the weekend as a ridge amplifies
over the middle Mississippi Valley and southerly flow returns to
the region. Temperatures across the area should have no trouble
reaching the mid 70s on Saturday, and mid to upper 70s Sunday,
with some locations perhaps flirting with the 80 degree mark.
However, by Sunday evening, the 500mb ridge axis will shift east
of the area and flatten slightly, allowing for quasi-zonal to
southwesterly flow over the area late Sunday and into Monday. A
shortwave is progged to move into western Missouri late on Sunday,
and current feeling is that instability will be sufficient for some
thunderstorms to occur, given the warm temperatures and ample
moisture ahead of the system thanks to several days of return
flow. Models have slowed down the progression of this feature
somewhat, thus it looks like this initial shortwave and associated
precipitation will move east across Missouri Sunday night,
leaving much of the day Sunday dry across the forecast area. On
Monday, a reinforcing trough and cold front will move through the
area in the wake of the shortwave, continuing the chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the day on Monday and Monday
night. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that the front and
associated precipitation will be south of the forecast area by 12Z
Tuesday. Temperatures are still expected to remain near or
slightly above normal.

Beyond next Tuesday, expect another warm up across the area, as
the trough shifts east and deepens over the eastern CONUS and
ridging once again takes place over the middle Mississippi Valley.
Southerly flow will continue to increase Wednesday and Thursday,
with a chance of thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday night
and Thursday in part due to the strengthening warm advection.
Temperatures during this time frame are expected to be in the
middle to upper 70s, continuing the above normal trend. An
intensifying low pressure system over the northern plains is
anticipated to impact the area late next week, though model
agreement is currently lacking in its progression. Thus, feel that
continued warming temperatures and broad brushed chance PoPs
through Thursday are sufficient at this time.

JP

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

High pressure will dominate the region resulting in clear skies
and light winds. Some radiational fog will be possible early
Saturday morning at KSUS where the wind will likely be calm. VFR
conditions will continue on Saturday with increasing southeasterly
winds.

Specifics for KSTL:

High pressure will dominate the region resulting in clear skies
and light winds. VFR conditions will continue on Saturday with
increasing southeasterly winds.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181649
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell





000
FXUS63 KSGF 181649
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light fog has developed across far western Missouri early this
morning. This fog will affect the KJLN site early in the TAF
period before dissipating by mid morning. The fog development is
expected to remain west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites.

The mid level clouds currently over the region will clear early
this morning with mainly clear skies expected through much of the
day and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will occur through the day becoming
southeastern this evening into tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light fog has developed across far western Missouri early this
morning. This fog will affect the KJLN site early in the TAF
period before dissipating by mid morning. The fog development is
expected to remain west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites.

The mid level clouds currently over the region will clear early
this morning with mainly clear skies expected through much of the
day and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will occur through the day becoming
southeastern this evening into tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light fog has developed across far western Missouri early this
morning. This fog will affect the KJLN site early in the TAF
period before dissipating by mid morning. The fog development is
expected to remain west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites.

The mid level clouds currently over the region will clear early
this morning with mainly clear skies expected through much of the
day and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will occur through the day becoming
southeastern this evening into tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light fog has developed across far western Missouri early this
morning. This fog will affect the KJLN site early in the TAF
period before dissipating by mid morning. The fog development is
expected to remain west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites.

The mid level clouds currently over the region will clear early
this morning with mainly clear skies expected through much of the
day and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will occur through the day becoming
southeastern this evening into tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181644
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell







000
FXUS63 KLSX 181124
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
624 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A tranquil Friday looks to be on tap, as the weakening cold front
continues moving southeast out of our area this morning, with any
accompanying shower activity already southeast of our area over
the Missouri bootheel. Skies over central and northeast Missouri
as well as west central Illinois are clear, and expect the
clearing trend to continue from north to south through the morning
hours for the remainder of the forecast area. Rising heights at
500mb will overspread the area today, as a ridge begins to develop
over the middle Mississippi Valley in the wake of the departing
trough. Temperatures today will climb to the mid 60s north to
around 70 for the St. Louis metro area and southern zones, fairly
close to, or even slightly above normal for this time of year.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A big warm up is on the way for the weekend as a ridge amplifies
over the middle Mississippi Valley and southerly flow returns to
the region. Temperatures across the area should have no trouble
reaching the mid 70s on Saturday, and mid to upper 70s Sunday,
with some locations perhaps flirting with the 80 degree mark.
However, by Sunday evening, the 500mb ridge axis will shift east
of the area and flatten slightly, allowing for quasi-zonal to
southwesterly flow over the area late Sunday and into Monday. A
shortwave is progged to move into western Missouri late on Sunday,
and current feeling is that instability will be sufficient for some
thunderstorms to occur, given the warm temperatures and ample
moisture ahead of the system thanks to several days of return
flow. Models have slowed down the progression of this feature
somewhat, thus it looks like this initial shortwave and associated
precipitation will move east across Missouri Sunday night,
leaving much of the day Sunday dry across the forecast area. On
Monday, a reinforcing trough and cold front will move through the
area in the wake of the shortwave, continuing the chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the day on Monday and Monday
night. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that the front and
associated precipitation will be south of the forecast area by 12Z
Tuesday. Temperatures are still expected to remain near or
slightly above normal.

Beyond next Tuesday, expect another warm up across the area, as
the trough shifts east and deepens over the eastern CONUS and
ridging once again takes place over the middle Mississippi Valley.
Southerly flow will continue to increase Wednesday and Thursday,
with a chance of thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday night
and Thursday in part due to the strengthening warm advection.
Temperatures during this time frame are expected to be in the
middle to upper 70s, continuing the above normal trend. An
intensifying low pressure system over the northern plains is
anticipated to impact the area late next week, though model
agreement is currently lacking in its progression. Thus, feel that
continued warming temperatures and broad brushed chance PoPs
through Thursday are sufficient at this time.

JP

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Expecting VFR flight conditions and light north-northeast flow to
prevail today. Patchy early morning fog in central Missouri should
dissipate quickly after sunrise. Wind will gradually turn more to
the east and then southeast tonight as a ridge of high pressure
moves across the area.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and light northerly flow will prevail this
morning. Expect wind to turn to the northeast this afternoon and
then become more east-southeasterly tonight as a ridge of high
pressure moves across the area.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light fog has developed across far western Missouri early this
morning. This fog will affect the KJLN site early in the TAF
period before dissipating by mid morning. The fog development is
expected to remain west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites.

The mid level clouds currently over the region will clear early
this morning with mainly clear skies expected through much of the
day and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will occur through the day becoming
southeastern this evening into tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light fog has developed across far western Missouri early this
morning. This fog will affect the KJLN site early in the TAF
period before dissipating by mid morning. The fog development is
expected to remain west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites.

The mid level clouds currently over the region will clear early
this morning with mainly clear skies expected through much of the
day and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will occur through the day becoming
southeastern this evening into tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KEAX 181056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Friday - Sunday:

We`ll start the weekend with warm and dry weather as short-wave
ridging moves across the center of the country. Surface and low-level
flow will be weak today as high pressure slowly moves east. With
anticipated near full insolation, the area should be able to climb to
or just above normal temperatures with highs int he upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Winds will be stronger on Saturday and from the
south. With the upper ridge moving over the area, thickness values
increase and this should result in high temperatures that are well
above normal. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across
the forecast area.

For Sunday, another very mild day is expected but the possibility of
more cloud cover and precipitation later in the day makes the
forecast a bit more complicated. Thicknesses may be slightly lower
but mid-level temperatures may be several degrees warmer as warm
advection persists ahead of a weak upper system. So thinking
temperatures should again top out in the mid to upper 70s by the
time any precipitation moves.

With regards to precipitation chances for Sunday, the main trend has
been to slow things down a bit and keep the better chances to the
west. The system coming from the southwest is rather weak and
doesn`t lead to a strong low-level jet. What little LLJ there is, is
more focused into Nebraska and may just clip far northwestern
Missouri during the overnight hours. That LLJ dissipates during the
day and with no real upper jet pushing the southern wave east, its
progression is slow and thus any forcing for ascent associated with
it will be delayed as well. So during the day time, have kept the
highest PoPs to the western forecast area and removed them for our
eastern tier or two of counties.

Better precipitation chances will come during the overnight as the
upper trough moves overhead. But again, this entire system looks
rather weak with little jet energy associated with it. So the best
chances will closely tied to the weak surface/low-level boundary
moving into/through the area.

Monday - Friday:

This period of time looks to become more active, especially towards
the mid to late week time frame. A deep and nearly cutoff low will
develop over the western CONUS with persistent southerly flow
bringing increased moisture into the region. Through the middle of
the week this should mainly set up warm advection, mostly nocturnal
convection as the LLJ really intensifies over the Plains. However,
by Thursday into Friday, that trough begins to eject across the
Plains with widespread convection becoming more likely. But, there
are significant timing and structure issues between the GEFS, GFS
and ECMWF. The ECMWF is the farthest east and also indicates a
negative tilt and thus more dynamic system. The GFS is about a day
behind and more neutral to positively tilted. The GEFS mean is
somewhere in between from Thursday into Friday but eventually shows
better agreement to the GFS by the very end of the week. Given the
uncertainties, confidence is not especially high at this point time
for any particular solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light winds associated with an area of high pressure centered over
the region as well as what is likely smoke from Flint Hills burning
has led to light fog/ haze over western Missouri and eastern Kansas.
Isolated dense fog is possible in northern to northeastern Missouri,
mainly sheltered and cold air drainage areas. Conditions at the
terminals are still expected to be VFR. STJ my briefly dip into MVFR
this morning but this should soon dissipate within several hours of
sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KLSX 180901
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
401 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A tranquil Friday looks to be on tap, as the weakening cold front
continues moving southeast out of our area this morning, with any
accompanying shower activity already southeast of our area over
the Missouri bootheel. Skies over central and northeast Missouri
as well as west central Illinois are clear, and expect the
clearing trend to continue from north to south through the morning
hours for the remainder of the forecast area. Rising heights at
500mb will overspread the area today, as a ridge begins to develop
over the middle Mississippi Valley in the wake of the departing
trough. Temperatures today will climb to the mid 60s north to
around 70 for the St. Louis metro area and southern zones, fairly
close to, or even slightly above normal for this time of year.

JP

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A big warm up is on the way for the weekend as a ridge amplifies
over the middle Mississippi Valley and southerly flow returns to
the region. Temperatures across the area should have no trouble
reaching the mid 70s on Saturday, and mid to upper 70s Sunday,
with some locations perhaps flirting with the 80 degree mark.
However, by Sunday evening, the 500mb ridge axis will shift east
of the area and flatten slightly, allowing for quasi-zonal to
southwesterly flow over the area late Sunday and into Monday. A
shortwave is progged to move into western Missouri late on Sunday,
and current feeling is that instability will be sufficient for some
thunderstorms to occur, given the warm temperatures and ample
moisture ahead of the system thanks to several days of return
flow. Models have slowed down the progression of this feature
somewhat, thus it looks like this initial shortwave and associated
precipitation will move east across Missouri Sunday night,
leaving much of the day Sunday dry across the forecast area. On
Monday, a reinforcing trough and cold front will move through the
area in the wake of the shortwave, continuing the chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the day on Monday and Monday
night. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that the front and
associated precipitation will be south of the forecast area by 12Z
Tuesday. Temperatures are still expected to remain near or
slightly above normal.

Beyond next Tuesday, expect another warm up across the area, as
the trough shifts east and deepens over the eastern CONUS and
ridging once again takes place over the middle Mississippi Valley.
Southerly flow will continue to increase Wednesday and Thursday,
with a chance of thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday night
and Thursday in part due to the strengthening warm advection.
Temperatures during this time frame are expected to be in the
middle to upper 70s, continuing the above normal trend. An
intensifying low pressure system over the northern plains is
anticipated to impact the area late next week, though model
agreement is currently lacking in its progression. Thus, feel that
continued warming temperatures and broad brushed chance PoPs
through Thursday are sufficient at this time.

JP

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

VFR conditions expected with mid level cloud cover clearing from
the west early Friday morning. Light north to east wind.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR with light north to east wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 180831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Friday - Sunday:

We`ll start the weekend with warm and dry weather as short-wave
ridging moves across the center of the country. Surface and low-level
flow will be weak today as high pressure slowly moves east. With
anticipated near full insolation, the area should be able to climb to
or just above normal temperatures with highs int he upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Winds will be stronger on Saturday and from the
south. With the upper ridge moving over the area, thickness values
increase and this should result in high temperatures that are well
above normal. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across
the forecast area.

For Sunday, another very mild day is expected but the possibility of
more cloud cover and precipitation later in the day makes the
forecast a bit more complicated. Thicknesses may be slightly lower
but mid-level temperatures may be several degrees warmer as warm
advection persists ahead of a weak upper system. So thinking
temperatures should again top out in the mid to upper 70s by the
time any precipitation moves.

With regards to precipitation chances for Sunday, the main trend has
been to slow things down a bit and keep the better chances to the
west. The system coming from the southwest is rather weak and
doesn`t lead to a strong low-level jet. What little LLJ there is, is
more focused into Nebraska and may just clip far northwestern
Missouri during the overnight hours. That LLJ dissipates during the
day and with no real upper jet pushing the southern wave east, its
progression is slow and thus any forcing for ascent associated with
it will be delayed as well. So during the day time, have kept the
highest PoPs to the western forecast area and removed them for our
eastern tier or two of counties.

Better precipitation chances will come during the overnight as the
upper trough moves overhead. But again, this entire system looks
rather weak with little jet energy associated with it. So the best
chances will closely tied to the weak surface/low-level boundary
moving into/through the area.

Monday - Friday:

This period of time looks to become more active, especially towards
the mid to late week time frame. A deep and nearly cutoff low will
develop over the western CONUS with persistent southerly flow
bringing increased moisture into the region. Through the middle of
the week this should mainly set up warm advection, mostly nocturnal
convection as the LLJ really intensifies over the Plains. However,
by Thursday into Friday, that trough begins to eject across the
Plains with widespread convection becoming more likely. But, there
are significant timing and structure issues between the GEFS, GFS
and ECMWF. The ECMWF is the farthest east and also indicates a
negative tilt and thus more dynamic system. The GFS is about a day
behind and more neutral to positively tilted. The GEFS mean is
somewhere in between from Thursday into Friday but eventually shows
better agreement to the GFS by the very end of the week. Given the
uncertainties, confidence is not especially high at this point time
for any particular solution.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. High pressure over
the area will keep winds light tonight. That high will shift to the
east late Friday morning with winds becoming light from the southeast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB








000
FXUS63 KSGF 180749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currrently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance/shortwave
over se KS/eastern OK will move through the taf sites over the next few
hours. Extensive mid level clouds will clear with it from west to
east. Weak sfc high pressure will remain in place just west-north
the region with light winds and a clearing sky. Some fog is
already developing over se KS where the sky has cleared, and expect
that trend to continue. Will have some mvfr cat fog at all taf
sites and a tempo group of brief ifr cat fog toward 12z/sunrise at
KJLN where the sky will clear out earlier.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA






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