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000
FXUS63 KLSX 202022
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
322 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Frontal boundary has exited the forecast area with surface ridge
building in. So expect clear skies and light winds tonight.
Temperatures will drop off into the low to mid 40s with upper 40s to
low 50s in the St. Louis metro area.

Byrd


.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Still looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry as GFS/NAM/ECMWF
are in good agreement that upper ridge will move into Missouri and
Illinois from the west.  Have added a chance of showers over
northeast and central Missouri as well as west central Illinois on
Thursday as another shortwave will be moving quickly eastward into
the area.

Continued to use a blend of MOS guidance the next few days which
fits in well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Friday through next Monday)

ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement today that upper ridge will
begin building into area on Friday and that it will remain over
the area through next weekend bringing continued dry weather.
Winds will turn out of the south and 850mb temperatures will climb
above 10C which support temperature above normal temperature for
Saturday and Sunday. Both models are showing an upper trough
moving into the Plains with and attendant cold front entering
Missouri and Illinois by next Monday, so will keep the current chance
of showers going.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable towards sunset. Then
by mid morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable by 00z Tuesday. Then
by 15z Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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000
FXUS63 KEAX 202009
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably warm, dry conditions will continue across the region
through at least Wednesday evening as upper-level ridging slides
eastward over the Plains, and weak southerly flow returns at low
levels. The main focus in the forecast period will be the only real
chance for precipitation, which will come with a trough moving into
the central U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.

The trough, still just offshore, will head eastward over the next
several days and will eventually send a surface cold front east to
west across the forecast area. The latest model trends have been to
speed this feature up just a bit, but still not expecting anything
in the KC area and points east before midnight Wednesday night, and
also not anticipating that the system will speed up any more as it
moves onshore. Around 200-300 J/kg of elevated instability may be
available across eastern KS and far western MO during the Wednesday
night - early Thursday morning timeframe so have also added isolated
thunderstorms back into the forecast before 12z Thursday. After 12z
Thursday, the potential for thunder, precipitation chances, and
possible precipitation amounts will all gradually decrease as the
front heads east and surface convergence weakens.

After the parent trough exits the region to the east, above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the remainder of
the forecast period. Highs will likely reach the mid to even upper
70s this weekend through early next week, and lows should remain in
the upper 40s to lower 50s most nights.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Mainly VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected through
the TAF period. Some patchy light fog may develop at KSTJ as winds
go calm after 06z, and any fog that does develop may be slower to
dissipate with light winds after sunrise Tuesday. Light, patchy
ground fog is also possible at MCI and IXD, but confidence was too
low to include in the TAF at this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






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000
FXUS63 KSGF 201857
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201857
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201857
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201857
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 201753
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1253 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Mainly VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected through
the TAF period. Some patchy light fog may develop at KSTJ as winds
go calm after 06z, and any fog that does develop may be slower to
dissipate with light winds after sunrise Tuesday. Light, patchy
ground fog is also possible at MCI and IXD, but confidence was too
low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 201731
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable towards sunset. Then
by mid morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable by 00z Tuesday. Then
by 15z Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 201731
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable towards sunset. Then
by mid morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable by 00z Tuesday. Then
by 15z Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 201731
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable towards sunset. Then
by mid morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable by 00z Tuesday. Then
by 15z Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 201731
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable towards sunset. Then
by mid morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Specifics for KSTL:
Cold front has exited forecast area with surface ridge building
in. Skies to remain clear through the forecast period with
northwest winds becoming light and variable by 00z Tuesday. Then
by 15z Tuesday, winds to pickup from the north.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 201650
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Showers had ended across far southwest Missouri by mid morning as
they pushed south into Oklahoma and Arkansas, in association with
a frontal boundary and upper level shortwave. Have removed any
mention of precipitation for the remainder of the day in the
forecast products. High pressure will begin to build into the area
with a clearing sky during the afternoon from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201650
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Showers had ended across far southwest Missouri by mid morning as
they pushed south into Oklahoma and Arkansas, in association with
a frontal boundary and upper level shortwave. Have removed any
mention of precipitation for the remainder of the day in the
forecast products. High pressure will begin to build into the area
with a clearing sky during the afternoon from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201650
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Showers had ended across far southwest Missouri by mid morning as
they pushed south into Oklahoma and Arkansas, in association with
a frontal boundary and upper level shortwave. Have removed any
mention of precipitation for the remainder of the day in the
forecast products. High pressure will begin to build into the area
with a clearing sky during the afternoon from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201650
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Showers had ended across far southwest Missouri by mid morning as
they pushed south into Oklahoma and Arkansas, in association with
a frontal boundary and upper level shortwave. Have removed any
mention of precipitation for the remainder of the day in the
forecast products. High pressure will begin to build into the area
with a clearing sky during the afternoon from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance and
approaching sfc trough have kicked off a few light showers along
with vfr or high end mvfr ceilings. This will continue over the
next few hours with the better chances for -shra at KJLN and KBBG.
Not expected much, if any, impact on visibility with rain. Conditions
will clear north to south 15z-21z. Light winds with a sfc ridge
of high pressure will occur tonight. Some guidance (GFS MOS) is
showing some chances for shallow dense fog toward the end of the
taf period. SREF and NAM showing chances slim at best. With drier
air working it`s way in, believe any fog will patchy and may favor
low terrain and lakes. Will watch fcst trends, particularly at KBBG,
but will not include fog in the tafs for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 201150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance and
approaching sfc trough have kicked off a few light showers along
with vfr or high end mvfr ceilings. This will continue over the
next few hours with the better chances for -shra at KJLN and KBBG.
Not expected much, if any, impact on visibility with rain. Conditions
will clear north to south 15z-21z. Light winds with a sfc ridge
of high pressure will occur tonight. Some guidance (GFS MOS) is
showing some chances for shallow dense fog toward the end of the
taf period. SREF and NAM showing chances slim at best. With drier
air working it`s way in, believe any fog will patchy and may favor
low terrain and lakes. Will watch fcst trends, particularly at KBBG,
but will not include fog in the tafs for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KEAX 201050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clear skies will prevail through the TAF period. Fog will affect STJ
through 13Z reducing vsbys to 1/2SM-1SM otrw...VFR conds are
expected. Winds will be lgt and vrb this morning picking up out of
the north btn 5-10kts today. Winds will again become lgt and vrb tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 201050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clear skies will prevail through the TAF period. Fog will affect STJ
through 13Z reducing vsbys to 1/2SM-1SM otrw...VFR conds are
expected. Winds will be lgt and vrb this morning picking up out of
the north btn 5-10kts today. Winds will again become lgt and vrb tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201037
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
536 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front will move through the TAF sites today, but no
precipitation is expected as the front passes. Surface winds will
veer from west to northwest behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL: Southwest winds this morning will gradaully
become northwesterely this afternoon behind a cold front. The
front will move through dry, with little cloud cover expected.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 201037
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
536 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Cold front will move through the TAF sites today, but no
precipitation is expected as the front passes. Surface winds will
veer from west to northwest behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL: Southwest winds this morning will gradaully
become northwesterely this afternoon behind a cold front. The
front will move through dry, with little cloud cover expected.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 200824
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks airmass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 200824
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks airmass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200810
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
310 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly by Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA before sunrise Mon are expected to remain S of
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 200810
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
310 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly by Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA before sunrise Mon are expected to remain S of
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 200810
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
310 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly by Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA before sunrise Mon are expected to remain S of
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 200810
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
310 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Scattered sprinkles and light rain showers developed across the
southern half of the LSX CWA overnight. Pcpn will gradually
diminish today due to increasingly drier air behind a low pressure
system which will continue moving from the Great Lakes into the
northeastern US.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Expect dry weather and seasonably mild temperatures to last
through at least the middle of the week due to the influence of a
highly amplified upper ridge across the central CONUS as well as a
surface ridge axis extending southwestward from Ontario through
the Great Lakes and into MO/IL. A low pressure system will cross
the Rockies and move into the plains towards the end of the week,
and some of the precipitation associated with this system might
clip the western CWA on Thursday. Most of the model runs over the
last few days were depicting a low pressure system which moved
southeastward from the Rockies into the southern plains and then
continued towards the Gulf of Mexico, but the 23/00z runs now
depict a very different solution with a shortwave moving through
the northern plains.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly by Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA before sunrise Mon are expected to remain S of
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 200807
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Short Term (Today through Wednesday):

An upper level trough is evident on water vapor imagery moving
through the Upper Midwest this morning. An associated cold front is
extending from northeastern Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and then
further southwest into north central Kansas. This weak front will
pass through the CWA today with little fanfare as conditions will
remain dry and mild. Highs today will still be near 5 degrees above
average in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area tonight allowing for good radiational cooling and
temperatures falling back into the low to mid 40s. An upper level
ridge over the Plains on Monday will shift east into the region on
Tuesday. This will allow for a continuation to the mild temperatures
with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Also, early on Tuesday,
our midweek weather maker in the form of an upper level shortwave
will move on shore over the western CONUS. The upper level ridge
will begin to flatten out across the region on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough moves into the eastern Rockies. However, we will
squeeze out another mild day with highs low 60s to low 70s.

Long Term (Wednesday night through Sunday):

Models have come into better agreement with the midweek
system...moving a weak shortwave into the Plains by Wednesday night.
This will push a cold front towards the area and rain showers will
overspread the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the upper
level system moves through the area on Thursday it weakens and
showers will come to an end by early Thursday night. Thursday will
be the "cool" day of the period with highs near normal in the low to
mid 60s. Temperatures however, will quickly return to back above
normal on Friday as an upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
begins to build northeast toward the region. Highs will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the upper ridge axis will move
overhead and highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Sunday will
remain mild as the upper ridge remains in control with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 200530
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 200530
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 200530
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 200530
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 200517
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh









000
FXUS63 KEAX 200517
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. SW winds will
weaken overnight and transition to NW Monday morning as a cold front
moves in from the north. A few overnight clouds are expected,
but these will clear once the boundary pushes through. Added a chance of fog
development at KSTJ due to surface moisture, though conditions are
not as favorable as previous night with warmer temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh








000
FXUS63 KLSX 200402
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1102 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly by Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA before sunrise Mon are expected to remain S of
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200402
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1102 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly by Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA before sunrise Mon are expected to remain S of
terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 200234
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200234
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200234
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200234
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Limited precipitation chances to southern zones (south of St.
Louis) as shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery is quickly
going to move through the CWA with very dry air aloft moving into
the CWA. Could still squeeze out a shower or two across the south
ahead of the shortwave, but most will remain dry overnight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. SW winds
will change over to NW Monday morning with the passage of a cold
front extending over the area from the north. A few overnight clouds
expected, but will see clearing behind the frontal boundary. Added a
chance of fog development at KSTJ due to low-level moisture. Warmer
temperatures at KSTJ will make fog chances less favorable than
previous morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. SW winds
will change over to NW Monday morning with the passage of a cold
front extending over the area from the north. A few overnight clouds
expected, but will see clearing behind the frontal boundary. Added a
chance of fog development at KSTJ due to low-level moisture. Warmer
temperatures at KSTJ will make fog chances less favorable than
previous morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. SW winds
will change over to NW Monday morning with the passage of a cold
front extending over the area from the north. A few overnight clouds
expected, but will see clearing behind the frontal boundary. Added a
chance of fog development at KSTJ due to low-level moisture. Warmer
temperatures at KSTJ will make fog chances less favorable than
previous morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. SW winds
will change over to NW Monday morning with the passage of a cold
front extending over the area from the north. A few overnight clouds
expected, but will see clearing behind the frontal boundary. Added a
chance of fog development at KSTJ due to low-level moisture. Warmer
temperatures at KSTJ will make fog chances less favorable than
previous morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. SW winds
will change over to NW Monday morning with the passage of a cold
front extending over the area from the north. A few overnight clouds
expected, but will see clearing behind the frontal boundary. Added a
chance of fog development at KSTJ due to low-level moisture. Warmer
temperatures at KSTJ will make fog chances less favorable than
previous morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 192316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. SW winds
will change over to NW Monday morning with the passage of a cold
front extending over the area from the north. A few overnight clouds
expected, but will see clearing behind the frontal boundary. Added a
chance of fog development at KSTJ due to low-level moisture. Warmer
temperatures at KSTJ will make fog chances less favorable than
previous morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 192309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. An upper level
disturbance will bring increasing mid and high level clouds into
Monday morning. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop
from late tonight into early Monday morning, but a lot of the
shower activity will evaporate before reaching the ground. Perhaps
the best chance for rain reaching the ground will be around
Branson early Monday morning. Light southerly winds this evening
will shift around to the west and then northwest on Monday as a
cold front moves through the area. Skies are expected to clear
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 192309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. An upper level
disturbance will bring increasing mid and high level clouds into
Monday morning. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop
from late tonight into early Monday morning, but a lot of the
shower activity will evaporate before reaching the ground. Perhaps
the best chance for rain reaching the ground will be around
Branson early Monday morning. Light southerly winds this evening
will shift around to the west and then northwest on Monday as a
cold front moves through the area. Skies are expected to clear
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 192309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. An upper level
disturbance will bring increasing mid and high level clouds into
Monday morning. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop
from late tonight into early Monday morning, but a lot of the
shower activity will evaporate before reaching the ground. Perhaps
the best chance for rain reaching the ground will be around
Branson early Monday morning. Light southerly winds this evening
will shift around to the west and then northwest on Monday as a
cold front moves through the area. Skies are expected to clear
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 192309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. An upper level
disturbance will bring increasing mid and high level clouds into
Monday morning. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop
from late tonight into early Monday morning, but a lot of the
shower activity will evaporate before reaching the ground. Perhaps
the best chance for rain reaching the ground will be around
Branson early Monday morning. Light southerly winds this evening
will shift around to the west and then northwest on Monday as a
cold front moves through the area. Skies are expected to clear
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KLSX 192245
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 192245
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 192245
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 192245
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 192245
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will be light tonight and
gradually become wly Mon morning, then nwly late Mon morning to
early afternoon with fropa. No precip is anticipated with fropa
and any SHRA are expected to remain S of terminals.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 192206
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 192206
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The latest short term model guidance indicates that just enough
instability may sneak into extreme southeastern KS and
southwestern MO for an isolated lightning strike or two late
tonight and Monday morning. MUCAPE values in this area are progged
to climb into the 250-400 J/kg range by both the 18 UTC NAM and
the last few runs of the RAP. A slight chance for thunder has
therefore been added to the forecast and the Hazardous Weather
Outlook products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede





000
FXUS63 KLSX 192042
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.

Britt/Przybylinski

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure extending across the Ohio Valley region will
continue to move eastward into West Virginia and areas to the
east. Weak frontal boundary over North Dakota expected to move
southeast and move through eastern Missouri and southwest and
west-central Illinois between 1000-1500 UTC on Monday. Widely
scattered light showers and sprinkles are possible dueing and
after the frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:High level cloudiness will remain over the area
through late this afternoon. Southwest winds of 6-7 kts are likely
during the afternoon. Mid-level cloudiness will move into STL area
after 02 -0300 UTC this evening. Lower clouds around 050 Kft will
move into STL area after 1000 UTC. Widely scattered light showers
or sprinkles are possible between 1000-1500 UTC Monday morning.

RP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. SW
winds will increase to around 10-12 kts this afternoon through the
early evening, then should diminish and back slightly to due south
after 00z. A cold front will veer winds first to the northwest and
eventually north northeast after 12z Monday, but no cloud cover is
expected to accompany the front and speeds should remain less than
10 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 192023
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. SW
winds will increase to around 10-12 kts this afternoon through the
early evening, then should diminish and back slightly to due south
after 00z. A cold front will veer winds first to the northwest and
eventually north northeast after 12z Monday, but no cloud cover is
expected to accompany the front and speeds should remain less than
10 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 191947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A weak upper level impulse is currently moving across southwest
Missouri this afternoon seen on water vapor. There are even a few
elevated showers aloft with this feature but the airmass is very
dry in the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere noted by this
morning`s upper air sounding. Cloud bases were even above 10k feet
with these showers. Temperatures were seasonable this
afternoon...in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a weak front that is currently up near Nebraska that will
move through Monday. Moisture is very limited and will mention a
slight chance for an isolated sprinkle or light shower or two late
tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise with a west to southwest wind
ahead of the front tomorrow...temperatures will warm up into the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The front on Monday will not change the temperatures that much
with seasonable weather staying around through most of this week.
Upper level ridging will take place by Tuesday and Wednesday over
the central portion of the country. This will bring more fair weather.

There will be an upper level wave moving southeastward across the
central Plains region down to the northern Gulf Coast area by
Thursday and Friday. The models have been in some disagreement on
how to handle this feature. The recent runs of the GFS and GEM have
backed off on QPF and the ECMWF is now a more aggressive with some
QPF by Thursday. With that said...will continue a chance for
scattered showers possible on Thursday into Thursday night as this
system moves across. Slight upper level ridging will build by next
weekend with means more fair weather and seasonable if not a few
degrees above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KLSX 191809
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
109 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Made a few slight adjustments to the temperatues over parts of
south central Illinois into the St. Louis area. Also lowerrd the
temps a bit over parts of Warren, Montgomery and Franklin counties
however, expect relative quick recovery with the full sunshine.

PRZYBYLINSKI

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure extending across the Ohio Valley region will
continue to move eastward into West Virginia and areas to the
east. Weak frontal boundary over North Dakota expected to move
southeast and move through eastern Missouri and southwest and
west-central Illinois between 1000-1500 UTC on Monday. Widely
scattered light showers and sprinkles are possible dueing and
after the frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:High level cloudiness will remain over the area
through late this afternoon. Southwest winds of 6-7 kts are likely
during the afternoon. Mid-level cloudiness will move into STL area
after 02 -0300 UTC this evening. Lower clouds around 050 Kft will
move into STL area after 1000 UTC. Widely scattered light showers
or sprinkles are possible between 1000-1500 UTC Monday morning.

RP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 191809
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
109 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Made a few slight adjustments to the temperatues over parts of
south central Illinois into the St. Louis area. Also lowerrd the
temps a bit over parts of Warren, Montgomery and Franklin counties
however, expect relative quick recovery with the full sunshine.

PRZYBYLINSKI

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure extending across the Ohio Valley region will
continue to move eastward into West Virginia and areas to the
east. Weak frontal boundary over North Dakota expected to move
southeast and move through eastern Missouri and southwest and
west-central Illinois between 1000-1500 UTC on Monday. Widely
scattered light showers and sprinkles are possible dueing and
after the frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:High level cloudiness will remain over the area
through late this afternoon. Southwest winds of 6-7 kts are likely
during the afternoon. Mid-level cloudiness will move into STL area
after 02 -0300 UTC this evening. Lower clouds around 050 Kft will
move into STL area after 1000 UTC. Widely scattered light showers
or sprinkles are possible between 1000-1500 UTC Monday morning.

RP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks air mass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry air mass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks air mass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry air mass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KEAX 191701
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The forecast period continues to look relatively dry and mild over
the next seven days. High pressure residing over the area this
morning will continue to shift eastward into the lower Ohio River
Valley however, we will get off to a cool start with lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. As high pressure shifts east, winds will pick
up from the south allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s today.
Tonight an upper level trough digging through the western Great
Lakes will force a cold front through the area. The cold frontal
passage will remain dry as moisture will be meager with this system.
Monday, surface high pressure will move back into the area as upper
level ridging builds into the region. This will allow for a mild day
Monday with highs near 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Upper level ridging will weaken but remain in control
Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday we will begin
to watch the main system of interest through the period. This system
will be in the form of an upper level shortwave that will be digging
through the Plains. This system will flatten out the upper ridge
over the area on Wednesday however highs will still remain in the
lower 60s to near 70. Models remain in disagreement to the evolution
of the upper shortwave as it approaches the area Wednesday night.
The GFS is the weaker and further north of solutions bringing a
front and a chance of showers into the CWA by Thursday morning. The
GEM is the furthest south and west solution cutting off an upper
level low in the base of the trough as it moves through the southern
Plains. This solution then causes the cold front to wash out before
it reaches the CWA and keeps conditions dry. The EC is the middle of
the road and thus preferred solution bringing a weakened cold front
and showers into the area late Wednesday night and affecting the
entire CWA through Thursday and into early Thursday night. Right now
have kept rain chances in the chance to slight chance category due
to track uncertainty. Otherwise, the end of this week continues to
look dry and mild as the upper level ridge builds back into the
region. Expect highs in the mid 60s to near 70 Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. SW
winds will increase to around 10-12 kts this afternoon through the
early evening, then should diminish and back slightly to due south
after 00z. A cold front will veer winds first to the northwest and
eventually north northeast after 12z Monday, but no cloud cover is
expected to accompany the front and speeds should remain less than
10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 191701
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The forecast period continues to look relatively dry and mild over
the next seven days. High pressure residing over the area this
morning will continue to shift eastward into the lower Ohio River
Valley however, we will get off to a cool start with lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. As high pressure shifts east, winds will pick
up from the south allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s today.
Tonight an upper level trough digging through the western Great
Lakes will force a cold front through the area. The cold frontal
passage will remain dry as moisture will be meager with this system.
Monday, surface high pressure will move back into the area as upper
level ridging builds into the region. This will allow for a mild day
Monday with highs near 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Upper level ridging will weaken but remain in control
Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday we will begin
to watch the main system of interest through the period. This system
will be in the form of an upper level shortwave that will be digging
through the Plains. This system will flatten out the upper ridge
over the area on Wednesday however highs will still remain in the
lower 60s to near 70. Models remain in disagreement to the evolution
of the upper shortwave as it approaches the area Wednesday night.
The GFS is the weaker and further north of solutions bringing a
front and a chance of showers into the CWA by Thursday morning. The
GEM is the furthest south and west solution cutting off an upper
level low in the base of the trough as it moves through the southern
Plains. This solution then causes the cold front to wash out before
it reaches the CWA and keeps conditions dry. The EC is the middle of
the road and thus preferred solution bringing a weakened cold front
and showers into the area late Wednesday night and affecting the
entire CWA through Thursday and into early Thursday night. Right now
have kept rain chances in the chance to slight chance category due
to track uncertainty. Otherwise, the end of this week continues to
look dry and mild as the upper level ridge builds back into the
region. Expect highs in the mid 60s to near 70 Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. SW
winds will increase to around 10-12 kts this afternoon through the
early evening, then should diminish and back slightly to due south
after 00z. A cold front will veer winds first to the northwest and
eventually north northeast after 12z Monday, but no cloud cover is
expected to accompany the front and speeds should remain less than
10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 191419
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
919 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Made a few slight adjustments to the temperatues over parts of
south central Illinois into the St. Louis area. Also lowerrd the
temps a bit over parts of Warren, Montgomery and Franklin counties
however, expect relative quick recovery with the full sunshine.

PRZYBYLINSKI

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure over the area this morning producing light winds and
patchy fog primarily at locations in valleys or near rivers, i.e
SUS and CPS. Expect the fog to dissipate by 15z. The wind will
become southerly as the high shifts east and in advance of the
next cold front. Models have been trying to generate rain in
advance of the front for a couple of runs now. However not a lot
of moisture to work with, and pops still low so will leave the
forecast dry.

Specifics for KSTL: Fog has stayed away so expect a light south
southwest wind and VFR conditions to prevail through the day.
Looks like the next front will arrive about 15z Monday with a wind
shoft to the northwest. Lows pops so will keep the forecast dry
for now.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 191126
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
626 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure over the area this morning producing light winds and
patchy fog primarily at locations in valleys or near rivers, i.e
SUS and CPS. Expect the fog to dissipate by 15z. The wind will
become southerly as the high shifts east and in advance of the
next cold front. Models have been trying to generate rain in
advance of the front for a couple of runs now. However not a lot
of moisture to work with, and pops still low so will leave the
forecast dry.

Specifics for KSTL: Fog has stayed away so expect a light south
southwest wind and VFR conditions to prevail through the day.
Looks like the next front will arrive about 15z Monday with a wind
shoft to the northwest. Lows pops so will keep the forecast dry
for now.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 191126
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
626 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure over the area this morning producing light winds and
patchy fog primarily at locations in valleys or near rivers, i.e
SUS and CPS. Expect the fog to dissipate by 15z. The wind will
become southerly as the high shifts east and in advance of the
next cold front. Models have been trying to generate rain in
advance of the front for a couple of runs now. However not a lot
of moisture to work with, and pops still low so will leave the
forecast dry.

Specifics for KSTL: Fog has stayed away so expect a light south
southwest wind and VFR conditions to prevail through the day.
Looks like the next front will arrive about 15z Monday with a wind
shoft to the northwest. Lows pops so will keep the forecast dry
for now.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 191126
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
626 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure over the area this morning producing light winds and
patchy fog primarily at locations in valleys or near rivers, i.e
SUS and CPS. Expect the fog to dissipate by 15z. The wind will
become southerly as the high shifts east and in advance of the
next cold front. Models have been trying to generate rain in
advance of the front for a couple of runs now. However not a lot
of moisture to work with, and pops still low so will leave the
forecast dry.

Specifics for KSTL: Fog has stayed away so expect a light south
southwest wind and VFR conditions to prevail through the day.
Looks like the next front will arrive about 15z Monday with a wind
shoft to the northwest. Lows pops so will keep the forecast dry
for now.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 191126
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
626 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure over the area this morning producing light winds and
patchy fog primarily at locations in valleys or near rivers, i.e
SUS and CPS. Expect the fog to dissipate by 15z. The wind will
become southerly as the high shifts east and in advance of the
next cold front. Models have been trying to generate rain in
advance of the front for a couple of runs now. However not a lot
of moisture to work with, and pops still low so will leave the
forecast dry.

Specifics for KSTL: Fog has stayed away so expect a light south
southwest wind and VFR conditions to prevail through the day.
Looks like the next front will arrive about 15z Monday with a wind
shoft to the northwest. Lows pops so will keep the forecast dry
for now.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 191118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The forecast period continues to look relatively dry and mild over
the next seven days. High pressure residing over the area this
morning will continue to shift eastward into the lower Ohio River
Valley however, we will get off to a cool start with lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. As high pressure shifts east, winds will pick
up from the south allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s today.
Tonight an upper level trough digging through the western Great
Lakes will force a cold front through the area. The cold frontal
passage will remain dry as moisture will be meager with this system.
Monday, surface high pressure will move back into the area as upper
level ridging builds into the region. This will allow for a mild day
Monday with highs near 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Upper level ridging will weaken but remain in control
Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday we will begin
to watch the main system of interest through the period. This system
will be in the form of an upper level shortwave that will be digging
through the Plains. This system will flatten out the upper ridge
over the area on Wednesday however highs will still remain in the
lower 60s to near 70. Models remain in disagreement to the evolution
of the upper shortwave as it approaches the area Wednesday night.
The GFS is the weaker and further north of solutions bringing a
front and a chance of showers into the CWA by Thursday morning. The
GEM is the furthest south and west solution cutting off an upper
level low in the base of the trough as it moves through the southern
Plains. This solution then causes the cold front to wash out before
it reaches the CWA and keeps conditions dry. The EC is the middle of
the road and thus preferred solution bringing a weakened cold front
and showers into the area late Wednesday night and affecting the
entire CWA through Thursday and into early Thursday night. Right now
have kept rain chances in the chance to slight chance category due
to track uncertainty. Otherwise, the end of this week continues to
look dry and mild as the upper level ridge builds back into the
region. Expect highs in the mid 60s to near 70 Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with the exception of
some steam fog at STJ through 13Z. Otrw...expect sct-bkn mid lvl
clouds thru tonight before giving way to just few-sct high clouds.
Lgt winds this morning will pick up to around 10kts out of the south
by mid morning. Winds will again become lgt and vrb tonight as a weak
cold front approaches the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 191118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The forecast period continues to look relatively dry and mild over
the next seven days. High pressure residing over the area this
morning will continue to shift eastward into the lower Ohio River
Valley however, we will get off to a cool start with lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. As high pressure shifts east, winds will pick
up from the south allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s today.
Tonight an upper level trough digging through the western Great
Lakes will force a cold front through the area. The cold frontal
passage will remain dry as moisture will be meager with this system.
Monday, surface high pressure will move back into the area as upper
level ridging builds into the region. This will allow for a mild day
Monday with highs near 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Upper level ridging will weaken but remain in control
Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday we will begin
to watch the main system of interest through the period. This system
will be in the form of an upper level shortwave that will be digging
through the Plains. This system will flatten out the upper ridge
over the area on Wednesday however highs will still remain in the
lower 60s to near 70. Models remain in disagreement to the evolution
of the upper shortwave as it approaches the area Wednesday night.
The GFS is the weaker and further north of solutions bringing a
front and a chance of showers into the CWA by Thursday morning. The
GEM is the furthest south and west solution cutting off an upper
level low in the base of the trough as it moves through the southern
Plains. This solution then causes the cold front to wash out before
it reaches the CWA and keeps conditions dry. The EC is the middle of
the road and thus preferred solution bringing a weakened cold front
and showers into the area late Wednesday night and affecting the
entire CWA through Thursday and into early Thursday night. Right now
have kept rain chances in the chance to slight chance category due
to track uncertainty. Otherwise, the end of this week continues to
look dry and mild as the upper level ridge builds back into the
region. Expect highs in the mid 60s to near 70 Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with the exception of
some steam fog at STJ through 13Z. Otrw...expect sct-bkn mid lvl
clouds thru tonight before giving way to just few-sct high clouds.
Lgt winds this morning will pick up to around 10kts out of the south
by mid morning. Winds will again become lgt and vrb tonight as a weak
cold front approaches the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks air mass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry air mass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. An upper
level disturbance will move into the region late in the taf period
with an increase in clouds with vfr ceilings. Some spotty light
rain may also occur, but chances are not high enough to include in
the tafs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KLSX 190825
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The Canadian high pressure center which was located overhead early
this morning will shift southeastward today. Surface winds are
forecast to become southerly to southwesterly around the back side
of the high and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
clipper-like feature which will eventually drive this cold front
through the area was still located along the Alberta/Saskatchewan
border at 19/06z, but it is forecast to deepen and amplify as it
moves into the Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow. Models
show limited moisture being drawn into the region ahead of the
cold front, and this should be sufficient for sprinkles or light
rain showers. Even though the strongest lift will be farther to
the east, an additional source of weak lift over the southern LSX
CWA may be provided early this evening by a compact vort max
which was located near the OK panhandle this morning. This feature
looks a bit stronger on water vapor imagery than the models would
suggest, and it was already producing light radar returns across
northern OK and southern KS. Precip chances diminish quickly after
18z tomorrow due to subsidence behind the front, decreasing
moisture, and decreasing lift as the low pressure system pulls
away from the area.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

The rest of the forecast looks dry and seasonably warm through the
middle of the week. A surface ridge axis will extend southwestward
from Ontario into MO/IL while an amplified upper ridge shifts
eastward over the area. There may be a chance of rain late in the
week (Thu/Fri) if the models are correct in developing a closed
low over the southern plains and if its influence extends far
enough eastward to affect sensible wx over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Frost is still possible at terminals. Light FG will also be
possible, but most likely locations are SUS/CPS. Otherwise, winds
will become sly to sswly late Sun morning and remain light.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Frost will be
possible tonight. Winds will become sly late Sun morning and
remain light thru the period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190820
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The forecast period continues to look relatively dry and mild over
the next seven days. High pressure residing over the area this
morning will continue to shift eastward into the lower Ohio River
Valley however, we will get off to a cool start with lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. As high pressure shifts east, winds will pick
up from the south allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s today.
Tonight an upper level trough digging through the western Great
Lakes will force a cold front through the area. The cold frontal
passage will remain dry as moisture will be meager with this system.
Monday, surface high pressure will move back into the area as upper
level ridging builds into the region. This will allow for a mild day
Monday with highs near 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Upper level ridging will weaken but remain in control
Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday we will begin
to watch the main system of interest through the period. This system
will be in the form of an upper level shortwave that will be digging
through the Plains. This system will flatten out the upper ridge
over the area on Wednesday however highs will still remain in the
lower 60s to near 70. Models remain in disagreement to the evolution
of the upper shortwave as it approaches the area Wednesday night.
The GFS is the weaker and further north of solutions bringing a
front and a chance of showers into the CWA by Thursday morning. The
GEM is the furthest south and west solution cutting off an upper
level low in the base of the trough as it moves through the southern
Plains. This solution then causes the cold front to wash out before
it reaches the CWA and keeps conditions dry. The EC is the middle of
the road and thus preferred solution bringing a weakened cold front
and showers into the area late Wednesday night and affecting the
entire CWA through Thursday and into early Thursday night. Right now
have kept rain chances in the chance to slight chance category due
to track uncertainty. Otherwise, the end of this week continues to
look dry and mild as the upper level ridge builds back into the
region. Expect highs in the mid 60s to near 70 Friday and Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Overall, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Included a chance of MVFR fog at KSTJ due to favorable wind direction
and surface moisture. Development depends largely on whether or not surface
winds increase more than expected overnight. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds will continue to transition to a southwesterly direction by the
early afternoon on Sunday. Expect this to coincide with mid-level
clouds moving in from the southwest along a weak frontal boundary.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190820
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The forecast period continues to look relatively dry and mild over
the next seven days. High pressure residing over the area this
morning will continue to shift eastward into the lower Ohio River
Valley however, we will get off to a cool start with lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. As high pressure shifts east, winds will pick
up from the south allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s today.
Tonight an upper level trough digging through the western Great
Lakes will force a cold front through the area. The cold frontal
passage will remain dry as moisture will be meager with this system.
Monday, surface high pressure will move back into the area as upper
level ridging builds into the region. This will allow for a mild day
Monday with highs near 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Upper level ridging will weaken but remain in control
Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday we will begin
to watch the main system of interest through the period. This system
will be in the form of an upper level shortwave that will be digging
through the Plains. This system will flatten out the upper ridge
over the area on Wednesday however highs will still remain in the
lower 60s to near 70. Models remain in disagreement to the evolution
of the upper shortwave as it approaches the area Wednesday night.
The GFS is the weaker and further north of solutions bringing a
front and a chance of showers into the CWA by Thursday morning. The
GEM is the furthest south and west solution cutting off an upper
level low in the base of the trough as it moves through the southern
Plains. This solution then causes the cold front to wash out before
it reaches the CWA and keeps conditions dry. The EC is the middle of
the road and thus preferred solution bringing a weakened cold front
and showers into the area late Wednesday night and affecting the
entire CWA through Thursday and into early Thursday night. Right now
have kept rain chances in the chance to slight chance category due
to track uncertainty. Otherwise, the end of this week continues to
look dry and mild as the upper level ridge builds back into the
region. Expect highs in the mid 60s to near 70 Friday and Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Overall, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Included a chance of MVFR fog at KSTJ due to favorable wind direction
and surface moisture. Development depends largely on whether or not surface
winds increase more than expected overnight. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds will continue to transition to a southwesterly direction by the
early afternoon on Sunday. Expect this to coincide with mid-level
clouds moving in from the southwest along a weak frontal boundary.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks airmass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry airmass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Patchy light fog will be possible late tonight, but coverage is
expected to be too limited for inclusion in the TAFS. High clouds
will increase Sunday as an upper level disturbance pushes through
the region. Winds will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks airmass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry airmass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Patchy light fog will be possible late tonight, but coverage is
expected to be too limited for inclusion in the TAFS. High clouds
will increase Sunday as an upper level disturbance pushes through
the region. Winds will remain light out of the south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 190512
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

It was another beautiful Fall afternoon across the Missouri
Ozarks. Canadian high pressure will settle in tonight with light
and variable winds and clear skies. Temperatures will drop down
into the lower 40s out west and the upper 30s out east. Tomorrow
will be a carbon copy of today with a couple degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A moisture starved front will move through on Monday. A few more
clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two will be possible. Most
areas will remain dry. A west to southwest wind ahead of the
passage of the front will help temperatures warm into the lower
70s on Monday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s
behind the front on Tuesday. The weather will remain mostly quiet
for the area through most of next week with weak surface high over
the Great Lakes region keeping a light east to northeasterly flow
at the surface. Upper level ridging will block any storm systems
to move across our area. Temperatures will remain right around
seasonable average next week.

The models show an upper level low moving north to south down the
Central Plains region by Thursday into Friday. This may bring a
few isolated showers across portions of southeast Kansas or far
western Missouri. It looks like this system will have minimum if any
impacts on our local area as it moves down into Texas by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Patchy light fog will be possible late tonight, but coverage is
expected to be too limited for inclusion in the TAFS. High clouds
will increase Sunday as an upper level disturbance pushes through
the region. Winds will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 190512
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

It was another beautiful Fall afternoon across the Missouri
Ozarks. Canadian high pressure will settle in tonight with light
and variable winds and clear skies. Temperatures will drop down
into the lower 40s out west and the upper 30s out east. Tomorrow
will be a carbon copy of today with a couple degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A moisture starved front will move through on Monday. A few more
clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two will be possible. Most
areas will remain dry. A west to southwest wind ahead of the
passage of the front will help temperatures warm into the lower
70s on Monday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s
behind the front on Tuesday. The weather will remain mostly quiet
for the area through most of next week with weak surface high over
the Great Lakes region keeping a light east to northeasterly flow
at the surface. Upper level ridging will block any storm systems
to move across our area. Temperatures will remain right around
seasonable average next week.

The models show an upper level low moving north to south down the
Central Plains region by Thursday into Friday. This may bring a
few isolated showers across portions of southeast Kansas or far
western Missouri. It looks like this system will have minimum if any
impacts on our local area as it moves down into Texas by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Patchy light fog will be possible late tonight, but coverage is
expected to be too limited for inclusion in the TAFS. High clouds
will increase Sunday as an upper level disturbance pushes through
the region. Winds will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190441
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Gradually warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the weekend and the first half of next
week as our upper trough departs to the east and warmer conditions
build in from the west. Another shortwave trough will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes region on Monday, driving a weak cold front
through the CWA and possibly fueling a few scattered showers across
the southern half of MO; however, no rainfall is expected in our
area, and temperatures should not be significantly impacted.

The next feature to watch continues to be the trough currently well
offshore in the north Pacific. This feature will gradually push east
by early next week, and may arrive in the central CONUS Wednesday
night or Thursday. Model consistency remains poor with the strength,
timing, and track of the trough as it heads east, therefore although
it results in the best chance of rainfall in the next seven days,
confidence is low for the chance of any measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Overall, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Included a chance of MVFR fog at KSTJ due to favorable wind direction
and surface moisture. Development depends largely on whether or not surface
winds increase more than expected overnight. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds will continue to transition to a southwesterly direction by the
early afternoon on Sunday. Expect this to coincide with mid-level
clouds moving in from the southwest along a weak frontal boundary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190441
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Gradually warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the weekend and the first half of next
week as our upper trough departs to the east and warmer conditions
build in from the west. Another shortwave trough will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes region on Monday, driving a weak cold front
through the CWA and possibly fueling a few scattered showers across
the southern half of MO; however, no rainfall is expected in our
area, and temperatures should not be significantly impacted.

The next feature to watch continues to be the trough currently well
offshore in the north Pacific. This feature will gradually push east
by early next week, and may arrive in the central CONUS Wednesday
night or Thursday. Model consistency remains poor with the strength,
timing, and track of the trough as it heads east, therefore although
it results in the best chance of rainfall in the next seven days,
confidence is low for the chance of any measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Overall, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Included a chance of MVFR fog at KSTJ due to favorable wind direction
and surface moisture. Development depends largely on whether or not surface
winds increase more than expected overnight. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds will continue to transition to a southwesterly direction by the
early afternoon on Sunday. Expect this to coincide with mid-level
clouds moving in from the southwest along a weak frontal boundary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 190441
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Gradually warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the weekend and the first half of next
week as our upper trough departs to the east and warmer conditions
build in from the west. Another shortwave trough will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes region on Monday, driving a weak cold front
through the CWA and possibly fueling a few scattered showers across
the southern half of MO; however, no rainfall is expected in our
area, and temperatures should not be significantly impacted.

The next feature to watch continues to be the trough currently well
offshore in the north Pacific. This feature will gradually push east
by early next week, and may arrive in the central CONUS Wednesday
night or Thursday. Model consistency remains poor with the strength,
timing, and track of the trough as it heads east, therefore although
it results in the best chance of rainfall in the next seven days,
confidence is low for the chance of any measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Overall, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Included a chance of MVFR fog at KSTJ due to favorable wind direction
and surface moisture. Development depends largely on whether or not surface
winds increase more than expected overnight. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds will continue to transition to a southwesterly direction by the
early afternoon on Sunday. Expect this to coincide with mid-level
clouds moving in from the southwest along a weak frontal boundary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190441
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Gradually warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the weekend and the first half of next
week as our upper trough departs to the east and warmer conditions
build in from the west. Another shortwave trough will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes region on Monday, driving a weak cold front
through the CWA and possibly fueling a few scattered showers across
the southern half of MO; however, no rainfall is expected in our
area, and temperatures should not be significantly impacted.

The next feature to watch continues to be the trough currently well
offshore in the north Pacific. This feature will gradually push east
by early next week, and may arrive in the central CONUS Wednesday
night or Thursday. Model consistency remains poor with the strength,
timing, and track of the trough as it heads east, therefore although
it results in the best chance of rainfall in the next seven days,
confidence is low for the chance of any measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Overall, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Included a chance of MVFR fog at KSTJ due to favorable wind direction
and surface moisture. Development depends largely on whether or not surface
winds increase more than expected overnight. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds will continue to transition to a southwesterly direction by the
early afternoon on Sunday. Expect this to coincide with mid-level
clouds moving in from the southwest along a weak frontal boundary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190441
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Gradually warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the weekend and the first half of next
week as our upper trough departs to the east and warmer conditions
build in from the west. Another shortwave trough will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes region on Monday, driving a weak cold front
through the CWA and possibly fueling a few scattered showers across
the southern half of MO; however, no rainfall is expected in our
area, and temperatures should not be significantly impacted.

The next feature to watch continues to be the trough currently well
offshore in the north Pacific. This feature will gradually push east
by early next week, and may arrive in the central CONUS Wednesday
night or Thursday. Model consistency remains poor with the strength,
timing, and track of the trough as it heads east, therefore although
it results in the best chance of rainfall in the next seven days,
confidence is low for the chance of any measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Overall, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Included a chance of MVFR fog at KSTJ due to favorable wind direction
and surface moisture. Development depends largely on whether or not surface
winds increase more than expected overnight. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds will continue to transition to a southwesterly direction by the
early afternoon on Sunday. Expect this to coincide with mid-level
clouds moving in from the southwest along a weak frontal boundary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190441
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Gradually warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the weekend and the first half of next
week as our upper trough departs to the east and warmer conditions
build in from the west. Another shortwave trough will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes region on Monday, driving a weak cold front
through the CWA and possibly fueling a few scattered showers across
the southern half of MO; however, no rainfall is expected in our
area, and temperatures should not be significantly impacted.

The next feature to watch continues to be the trough currently well
offshore in the north Pacific. This feature will gradually push east
by early next week, and may arrive in the central CONUS Wednesday
night or Thursday. Model consistency remains poor with the strength,
timing, and track of the trough as it heads east, therefore although
it results in the best chance of rainfall in the next seven days,
confidence is low for the chance of any measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Overall, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Included a chance of MVFR fog at KSTJ due to favorable wind direction
and surface moisture. Development depends largely on whether or not surface
winds increase more than expected overnight. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds will continue to transition to a southwesterly direction by the
early afternoon on Sunday. Expect this to coincide with mid-level
clouds moving in from the southwest along a weak frontal boundary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 190438
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1138 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern is the potential for some patchy frost tonight.  Low
clouds were found across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA
this afternoon.  Expect these clouds to clear out early this evening
as with the loss of daytime heating at the same time drier begins to
move into the area from the north.  Temperatures have not climbed as
high as they otherwise could have where the clouds have been today.
However there has also not been much mixing in these areas either
which did not lower the dewpoints.  Still think that we should see
some of the lower dewpoints currently over Iowa advect into the area
tonight.  Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn light as
surface ridge moves across the area.  Have lowered temperatures a
degree or two below MOS guidance where the surface ridge will be at
12Z.  Have also added some patchy frost given the expected mid 30
lows, light winds and clear skies.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Still expect this to be mainly a dry forecast except for Sunday
night and Monday when a passing upper trough and attendant cold
front will bring a chance for isolated/scattered showers.  Still
have best chances from the St. Louis east and south based on the
consistent GFS/ECWMF solutions.  Do not expect as many clouds
tomorrow with highs in the 60s.  Temperatures by Monday will finally
return to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Expect continued dry weather during this period.  Both the ECMWF and
the GFS have an upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois as an upper
low sinks southeastward from the central Rockies into Texas.
Meanwhile the large east coast upper low will lift northeastward.
This pattern favors subsidence over our area.  Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with forecast soundings showing mixing
only to 900mb with temperatures in the 10-15C range at this level
through the period.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Frost is still possible at terminals. Light FG will also be
possible, but most likely locations are SUS/CPS. Otherwise, winds
will become sly to sswly late Sun morning and remain light.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Frost will be
possible tonight. Winds will become sly late Sun morning and
remain light thru the period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 182322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Gradually warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the weekend and the first half of next
week as our upper trough departs to the east and warmer conditions
build in from the west. Another shortwave trough will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes region on Monday, driving a weak cold front
through the CWA and possibly fueling a few scattered showers across
the southern half of MO; however, no rainfall is expected in our
area, and temperatures should not be significantly impacted.

The next feature to watch continues to be the trough currently well
offshore in the north Pacific. This feature will gradually push east
by early next week, and may arrive in the central CONUS Wednesday
night or Thursday. Model consistency remains poor with the strength,
timing, and track of the trough as it heads east, therefore although
it results in the best chance of rainfall in the next seven days,
confidence is low for the chance of any measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Continued VFR conditions are expected to remain in place through the
forecast period. Northeasterly winds will ultimately become
southwesterly by Sunday afternoon, while increasing slightly in
speed. Mid-level clouds will begin to creep in during that time as
well.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 182322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Gradually warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the weekend and the first half of next
week as our upper trough departs to the east and warmer conditions
build in from the west. Another shortwave trough will drop southeast
across the Great Lakes region on Monday, driving a weak cold front
through the CWA and possibly fueling a few scattered showers across
the southern half of MO; however, no rainfall is expected in our
area, and temperatures should not be significantly impacted.

The next feature to watch continues to be the trough currently well
offshore in the north Pacific. This feature will gradually push east
by early next week, and may arrive in the central CONUS Wednesday
night or Thursday. Model consistency remains poor with the strength,
timing, and track of the trough as it heads east, therefore although
it results in the best chance of rainfall in the next seven days,
confidence is low for the chance of any measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Continued VFR conditions are expected to remain in place through the
forecast period. Northeasterly winds will ultimately become
southwesterly by Sunday afternoon, while increasing slightly in
speed. Mid-level clouds will begin to creep in during that time as
well.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 182317
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
617 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern is the potential for some patchy frost tonight.  Low
clouds were found across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA
this afternoon.  Expect these clouds to clear out early this evening
as with the loss of daytime heating at the same time drier begins to
move into the area from the north.  Temperatures have not climbed as
high as they otherwise could have where the clouds have been today.
However there has also not been much mixing in these areas either
which did not lower the dewpoints.  Still think that we should see
some of the lower dewpoints currently over Iowa advect into the area
tonight.  Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn light as
surface ridge moves across the area.  Have lowered temperatures a
degree or two below MOS guidance where the surface ridge will be at
12Z.  Have also added some patchy frost given the expected mid 30
lows, light winds and clear skies.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Still expect this to be mainly a dry forecast except for Sunday
night and Monday when a passing upper trough and attendant cold
front will bring a chance for isolated/scattered showers.  Still
have best chances from the St. Louis east and south based on the
consistent GFS/ECWMF solutions.  Do not expect as many clouds
tomorrow with highs in the 60s.  Temperatures by Monday will finally
return to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Expect continued dry weather during this period.  Both the ECMWF and
the GFS have an upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois as an upper
low sinks southeastward from the central Rockies into Texas.
Meanwhile the large east coast upper low will lift northeastward.
This pattern favors subsidence over our area.  Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with forecast soundings showing mixing
only to 900mb with temperatures in the 10-15C range at this level
through the period.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds will diminish quickly with sunset becoming light and vrb at
most locations. With light winds, frost will be possible at
terminals. Light FG will also be possible, but most likely
locations are SUS/CPS, but impacts are expected to be brief.
Otherwise, winds will become sly to sswly late Sun morning and
remain light.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will
diminish quickly with sunset. Frost will be possible late tonight.
Winds will become sly late Sun morning and remain light.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 182317
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
617 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern is the potential for some patchy frost tonight.  Low
clouds were found across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA
this afternoon.  Expect these clouds to clear out early this evening
as with the loss of daytime heating at the same time drier begins to
move into the area from the north.  Temperatures have not climbed as
high as they otherwise could have where the clouds have been today.
However there has also not been much mixing in these areas either
which did not lower the dewpoints.  Still think that we should see
some of the lower dewpoints currently over Iowa advect into the area
tonight.  Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn light as
surface ridge moves across the area.  Have lowered temperatures a
degree or two below MOS guidance where the surface ridge will be at
12Z.  Have also added some patchy frost given the expected mid 30
lows, light winds and clear skies.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Still expect this to be mainly a dry forecast except for Sunday
night and Monday when a passing upper trough and attendant cold
front will bring a chance for isolated/scattered showers.  Still
have best chances from the St. Louis east and south based on the
consistent GFS/ECWMF solutions.  Do not expect as many clouds
tomorrow with highs in the 60s.  Temperatures by Monday will finally
return to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Expect continued dry weather during this period.  Both the ECMWF and
the GFS have an upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois as an upper
low sinks southeastward from the central Rockies into Texas.
Meanwhile the large east coast upper low will lift northeastward.
This pattern favors subsidence over our area.  Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with forecast soundings showing mixing
only to 900mb with temperatures in the 10-15C range at this level
through the period.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds will diminish quickly with sunset becoming light and vrb at
most locations. With light winds, frost will be possible at
terminals. Light FG will also be possible, but most likely
locations are SUS/CPS, but impacts are expected to be brief.
Otherwise, winds will become sly to sswly late Sun morning and
remain light.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will
diminish quickly with sunset. Frost will be possible late tonight.
Winds will become sly late Sun morning and remain light.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 182317
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
617 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern is the potential for some patchy frost tonight.  Low
clouds were found across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA
this afternoon.  Expect these clouds to clear out early this evening
as with the loss of daytime heating at the same time drier begins to
move into the area from the north.  Temperatures have not climbed as
high as they otherwise could have where the clouds have been today.
However there has also not been much mixing in these areas either
which did not lower the dewpoints.  Still think that we should see
some of the lower dewpoints currently over Iowa advect into the area
tonight.  Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn light as
surface ridge moves across the area.  Have lowered temperatures a
degree or two below MOS guidance where the surface ridge will be at
12Z.  Have also added some patchy frost given the expected mid 30
lows, light winds and clear skies.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Still expect this to be mainly a dry forecast except for Sunday
night and Monday when a passing upper trough and attendant cold
front will bring a chance for isolated/scattered showers.  Still
have best chances from the St. Louis east and south based on the
consistent GFS/ECWMF solutions.  Do not expect as many clouds
tomorrow with highs in the 60s.  Temperatures by Monday will finally
return to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Expect continued dry weather during this period.  Both the ECMWF and
the GFS have an upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois as an upper
low sinks southeastward from the central Rockies into Texas.
Meanwhile the large east coast upper low will lift northeastward.
This pattern favors subsidence over our area.  Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with forecast soundings showing mixing
only to 900mb with temperatures in the 10-15C range at this level
through the period.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds will diminish quickly with sunset becoming light and vrb at
most locations. With light winds, frost will be possible at
terminals. Light FG will also be possible, but most likely
locations are SUS/CPS, but impacts are expected to be brief.
Otherwise, winds will become sly to sswly late Sun morning and
remain light.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will
diminish quickly with sunset. Frost will be possible late tonight.
Winds will become sly late Sun morning and remain light.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 182317
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
617 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern is the potential for some patchy frost tonight.  Low
clouds were found across the northern and eastern parts of the CWA
this afternoon.  Expect these clouds to clear out early this evening
as with the loss of daytime heating at the same time drier begins to
move into the area from the north.  Temperatures have not climbed as
high as they otherwise could have where the clouds have been today.
However there has also not been much mixing in these areas either
which did not lower the dewpoints.  Still think that we should see
some of the lower dewpoints currently over Iowa advect into the area
tonight.  Skies will clear this evening and winds will turn light as
surface ridge moves across the area.  Have lowered temperatures a
degree or two below MOS guidance where the surface ridge will be at
12Z.  Have also added some patchy frost given the expected mid 30
lows, light winds and clear skies.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Still expect this to be mainly a dry forecast except for Sunday
night and Monday when a passing upper trough and attendant cold
front will bring a chance for isolated/scattered showers.  Still
have best chances from the St. Louis east and south based on the
consistent GFS/ECWMF solutions.  Do not expect as many clouds
tomorrow with highs in the 60s.  Temperatures by Monday will finally
return to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

Expect continued dry weather during this period.  Both the ECMWF and
the GFS have an upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois as an upper
low sinks southeastward from the central Rockies into Texas.
Meanwhile the large east coast upper low will lift northeastward.
This pattern favors subsidence over our area.  Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with forecast soundings showing mixing
only to 900mb with temperatures in the 10-15C range at this level
through the period.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Winds will diminish quickly with sunset becoming light and vrb at
most locations. With light winds, frost will be possible at
terminals. Light FG will also be possible, but most likely
locations are SUS/CPS, but impacts are expected to be brief.
Otherwise, winds will become sly to sswly late Sun morning and
remain light.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Winds will
diminish quickly with sunset. Frost will be possible late tonight.
Winds will become sly late Sun morning and remain light.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 182246
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

It was another beautiful Fall afternoon across the Missouri
Ozarks. Canadian high pressure will settle in tonight with light
and variable winds and clear skies. Temperatures will drop down
into the lower 40s out west and the upper 30s out east. Tomorrow
will be a carbon copy of today with a couple degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A moisture starved front will move through on Monday. A few more
clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two will be possible. Most
areas will remain dry. A west to southwest wind ahead of the
passage of the front will help temperatures warm into the lower
70s on Monday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s
behind the front on Tuesday. The weather will remain mostly quiet
for the area through most of next week with weak surface high over
the Great Lakes region keeping a light east to northeasterly flow
at the surface. Upper level ridging will block any storm systems
to move across our area. Temperatures will remain right around
seasonable average next week.

The models show an upper level low moving north to south down the
Central Plains region by Thursday into Friday. This may bring a
few isolated showers across portions of southeast Kansas or far
western Missouri. It looks like this system will have minimum if any
impacts on our local area as it moves down into Texas by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday with scattered high
clouds. Light and variable winds will become southerly as high
pressure slides east of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 182246
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

It was another beautiful Fall afternoon across the Missouri
Ozarks. Canadian high pressure will settle in tonight with light
and variable winds and clear skies. Temperatures will drop down
into the lower 40s out west and the upper 30s out east. Tomorrow
will be a carbon copy of today with a couple degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A moisture starved front will move through on Monday. A few more
clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two will be possible. Most
areas will remain dry. A west to southwest wind ahead of the
passage of the front will help temperatures warm into the lower
70s on Monday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s
behind the front on Tuesday. The weather will remain mostly quiet
for the area through most of next week with weak surface high over
the Great Lakes region keeping a light east to northeasterly flow
at the surface. Upper level ridging will block any storm systems
to move across our area. Temperatures will remain right around
seasonable average next week.

The models show an upper level low moving north to south down the
Central Plains region by Thursday into Friday. This may bring a
few isolated showers across portions of southeast Kansas or far
western Missouri. It looks like this system will have minimum if any
impacts on our local area as it moves down into Texas by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday with scattered high
clouds. Light and variable winds will become southerly as high
pressure slides east of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






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