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000
FXUS63 KSGF 052016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Low level moisture continues to slowly increase, and along with it
have come a smattering of airmass thunderstorms. Shear is rather
weak, as a result, this activity has been more "pulse" in nature.
With instability more on the marginal side, the intensity of this
activity has been tempered quite a bit, with only a few lightning
strikes from time to time. This isolated to widely scattered
activity will continue into the early evening hours, with the
better coverage over western/northern portions of the outlook
area.

A break in the action is expected from the middle of this evening
into the overnight hours. More showers and storms will be
expanding across KS/OK during this time, gradually edging eastward
into extreme southeastern KS and far western MO toward daybreak
Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain mild for the time of year, near
persistence lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The upper level trough and associated surface low over the plains
will slowly move towards the region and begin to impact eastern
Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday morning.

Strong southerly flow as a result of the western trough and
eastern high pressure will bring ample Gulf moisture into the
region over the next few days. This will bring multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to the region from Wednesday through the
coming weekend.

The storm system that will bring rain to the region tomorrow will
slowly lift into the northern plains through Thursday morning as
another upper low digs across the west coast, keeping the region
under southwesterly flow aloft. This will keep the Gulf of
Mexico open through the remainder of the week with several
shortwaves and impulses taking advantage of the moisture. The
good thing is that there are no signals at this time for any
significant severe weather through the period. There will be good
instability and shear associated with the impulses and waves, but
the air mass will resemble more of a summer like air mass.

The primary thing we will need to watch will be the potential for
flooding across the Ozarks. The ample moisture noted already will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall at time and multiple rounds
of rain across the region. the region will potentially see from
2-4" of rain through the period from Wednesday though Sunday, but
some areas may see a bit more and will need to be monitored closely.

The upper low will finally make its way across the plains and
through the region on Monday. High pressure and an upper level
ridge will then replace the weather makers for the region for
most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in a
rather random fashion through this afternoon. Coverage will likely
peak around 21-22 UTC, with convection then decreasing heading
toward sunset.

After a generally dry and quiet evening, LLWS will start to kick
in late this evening. Convection over the Great Plains will then
start to move toward the region during the pre-dawn hours. JLN is
most likely to see thunderstorms, with convection perhaps making
it into SGF and BBG during the latter portions of the TAF period.
Have utilized PROB30 groups at this time, as confidence in overall
coverage and timing is somewhat low.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 052016
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Low level moisture continues to slowly increase, and along with it
have come a smattering of airmass thunderstorms. Shear is rather
weak, as a result, this activity has been more "pulse" in nature.
With instability more on the marginal side, the intensity of this
activity has been tempered quite a bit, with only a few lightning
strikes from time to time. This isolated to widely scattered
activity will continue into the early evening hours, with the
better coverage over western/northern portions of the outlook
area.

A break in the action is expected from the middle of this evening
into the overnight hours. More showers and storms will be
expanding across KS/OK during this time, gradually edging eastward
into extreme southeastern KS and far western MO toward daybreak
Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain mild for the time of year, near
persistence lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

The upper level trough and associated surface low over the plains
will slowly move towards the region and begin to impact eastern
Kansas and western Missouri by Wednesday morning.

Strong southerly flow as a result of the western trough and
eastern high pressure will bring ample Gulf moisture into the
region over the next few days. This will bring multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to the region from Wednesday through the
coming weekend.

The storm system that will bring rain to the region tomorrow will
slowly lift into the northern plains through Thursday morning as
another upper low digs across the west coast, keeping the region
under southwesterly flow aloft. This will keep the Gulf of
Mexico open through the remainder of the week with several
shortwaves and impulses taking advantage of the moisture. The
good thing is that there are no signals at this time for any
significant severe weather through the period. There will be good
instability and shear associated with the impulses and waves, but
the air mass will resemble more of a summer like air mass.

The primary thing we will need to watch will be the potential for
flooding across the Ozarks. The ample moisture noted already will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall at time and multiple rounds
of rain across the region. the region will potentially see from
2-4" of rain through the period from Wednesday though Sunday, but
some areas may see a bit more and will need to be monitored closely.

The upper low will finally make its way across the plains and
through the region on Monday. High pressure and an upper level
ridge will then replace the weather makers for the region for
most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in a
rather random fashion through this afternoon. Coverage will likely
peak around 21-22 UTC, with convection then decreasing heading
toward sunset.

After a generally dry and quiet evening, LLWS will start to kick
in late this evening. Convection over the Great Plains will then
start to move toward the region during the pre-dawn hours. JLN is
most likely to see thunderstorms, with convection perhaps making
it into SGF and BBG during the latter portions of the TAF period.
Have utilized PROB30 groups at this time, as confidence in overall
coverage and timing is somewhat low.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Boxell






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLSX 051950
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Isolated to scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA should start to dissipate
early tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. Overnight lows in
the 60s across the CWA will be fairly similar to last night. Winds
will start to back and become more southerly overnight in response
to a low pressure system which will be lifting from NM into the
central plains.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Southwest flow aloft can be expected with southerly surface flow
thru the upcoming weekend.  This nearly always alludes to above
average temps and pcpn chances and it appears it will be no
different this time around.

Thanks to hi-height SW flow initially, upper level disturbances will
deliver glancing blows to our region from the west and north
Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in decent rain chances for a
UIN-COU axis but minimal chances (climo [30%] or below) elsewhere.

The heights start to edge downward and enable the train of upper
level disturbances to start affecting more and more real estate over
our region by Friday and into the weekend, and this will represent
our best chances for widespread rain, where all areas will have
above climo PoPs with many in likely category.  This is not a huge
change by any stretch from the previous forecast, however.

The main upper level LOW that had been spinning over the
southwestern CONUS for much of this week is anticipated to bust
loose into the Plains by early next week and affect our region on
Monday, giving us one more day of potentially wet wx.

Finally by Tuesday a pattern change is in the works with NW flow
aloft in the wake of that main storm system exiting the SW CONUS.

Max temps thru Thursday are expected to be in the 80s with min temps
in the 60s, with a gradual cooling trend from the west beginning
Friday, but most locales in STL metro and east should still break 80
thru the weekend until early in the work week.

A more definitive cooling trend is then expected to take hold on
Tuesday and continue for a few days beyond.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Specifics for Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but
the expected coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs attm.
Diurnal cu should dissipate after sunset. Winds will subside
overnight then increase again tomorrow. Slightly stronger winds
aloft tomorrow combined with better mixing will produce stronger
wind gusts (20-25kts) after 06/15z.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  86  66  87 /  20  10   5  30
Quincy          63  83  64  83 /  10  30  20  60
Columbia        62  81  63  82 /  20  50  10  60
Jefferson City  61  82  63  82 /  20  40  10  60
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10   5   5  10
Farmington      60  81  61  83 /  20   5   5  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 051950
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Isolated to scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA should start to dissipate
early tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. Overnight lows in
the 60s across the CWA will be fairly similar to last night. Winds
will start to back and become more southerly overnight in response
to a low pressure system which will be lifting from NM into the
central plains.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Southwest flow aloft can be expected with southerly surface flow
thru the upcoming weekend.  This nearly always alludes to above
average temps and pcpn chances and it appears it will be no
different this time around.

Thanks to hi-height SW flow initially, upper level disturbances will
deliver glancing blows to our region from the west and north
Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in decent rain chances for a
UIN-COU axis but minimal chances (climo [30%] or below) elsewhere.

The heights start to edge downward and enable the train of upper
level disturbances to start affecting more and more real estate over
our region by Friday and into the weekend, and this will represent
our best chances for widespread rain, where all areas will have
above climo PoPs with many in likely category.  This is not a huge
change by any stretch from the previous forecast, however.

The main upper level LOW that had been spinning over the
southwestern CONUS for much of this week is anticipated to bust
loose into the Plains by early next week and affect our region on
Monday, giving us one more day of potentially wet wx.

Finally by Tuesday a pattern change is in the works with NW flow
aloft in the wake of that main storm system exiting the SW CONUS.

Max temps thru Thursday are expected to be in the 80s with min temps
in the 60s, with a gradual cooling trend from the west beginning
Friday, but most locales in STL metro and east should still break 80
thru the weekend until early in the work week.

A more definitive cooling trend is then expected to take hold on
Tuesday and continue for a few days beyond.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Specifics for Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but
the expected coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs attm.
Diurnal cu should dissipate after sunset. Winds will subside
overnight then increase again tomorrow. Slightly stronger winds
aloft tomorrow combined with better mixing will produce stronger
wind gusts (20-25kts) after 06/15z.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  86  66  87 /  20  10   5  30
Quincy          63  83  64  83 /  10  30  20  60
Columbia        62  81  63  82 /  20  50  10  60
Jefferson City  61  82  63  82 /  20  40  10  60
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10   5   5  10
Farmington      60  81  61  83 /  20   5   5  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 051950
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Isolated to scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA should start to dissipate
early tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. Overnight lows in
the 60s across the CWA will be fairly similar to last night. Winds
will start to back and become more southerly overnight in response
to a low pressure system which will be lifting from NM into the
central plains.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Southwest flow aloft can be expected with southerly surface flow
thru the upcoming weekend.  This nearly always alludes to above
average temps and pcpn chances and it appears it will be no
different this time around.

Thanks to hi-height SW flow initially, upper level disturbances will
deliver glancing blows to our region from the west and north
Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in decent rain chances for a
UIN-COU axis but minimal chances (climo [30%] or below) elsewhere.

The heights start to edge downward and enable the train of upper
level disturbances to start affecting more and more real estate over
our region by Friday and into the weekend, and this will represent
our best chances for widespread rain, where all areas will have
above climo PoPs with many in likely category.  This is not a huge
change by any stretch from the previous forecast, however.

The main upper level LOW that had been spinning over the
southwestern CONUS for much of this week is anticipated to bust
loose into the Plains by early next week and affect our region on
Monday, giving us one more day of potentially wet wx.

Finally by Tuesday a pattern change is in the works with NW flow
aloft in the wake of that main storm system exiting the SW CONUS.

Max temps thru Thursday are expected to be in the 80s with min temps
in the 60s, with a gradual cooling trend from the west beginning
Friday, but most locales in STL metro and east should still break 80
thru the weekend until early in the work week.

A more definitive cooling trend is then expected to take hold on
Tuesday and continue for a few days beyond.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Specifics for Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but
the expected coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs attm.
Diurnal cu should dissipate after sunset. Winds will subside
overnight then increase again tomorrow. Slightly stronger winds
aloft tomorrow combined with better mixing will produce stronger
wind gusts (20-25kts) after 06/15z.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  86  66  87 /  20  10   5  30
Quincy          63  83  64  83 /  10  30  20  60
Columbia        62  81  63  82 /  20  50  10  60
Jefferson City  61  82  63  82 /  20  40  10  60
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10   5   5  10
Farmington      60  81  61  83 /  20   5   5  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 051950
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Isolated to scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA should start to dissipate
early tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. Overnight lows in
the 60s across the CWA will be fairly similar to last night. Winds
will start to back and become more southerly overnight in response
to a low pressure system which will be lifting from NM into the
central plains.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Southwest flow aloft can be expected with southerly surface flow
thru the upcoming weekend.  This nearly always alludes to above
average temps and pcpn chances and it appears it will be no
different this time around.

Thanks to hi-height SW flow initially, upper level disturbances will
deliver glancing blows to our region from the west and north
Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in decent rain chances for a
UIN-COU axis but minimal chances (climo [30%] or below) elsewhere.

The heights start to edge downward and enable the train of upper
level disturbances to start affecting more and more real estate over
our region by Friday and into the weekend, and this will represent
our best chances for widespread rain, where all areas will have
above climo PoPs with many in likely category.  This is not a huge
change by any stretch from the previous forecast, however.

The main upper level LOW that had been spinning over the
southwestern CONUS for much of this week is anticipated to bust
loose into the Plains by early next week and affect our region on
Monday, giving us one more day of potentially wet wx.

Finally by Tuesday a pattern change is in the works with NW flow
aloft in the wake of that main storm system exiting the SW CONUS.

Max temps thru Thursday are expected to be in the 80s with min temps
in the 60s, with a gradual cooling trend from the west beginning
Friday, but most locales in STL metro and east should still break 80
thru the weekend until early in the work week.

A more definitive cooling trend is then expected to take hold on
Tuesday and continue for a few days beyond.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Specifics for Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but
the expected coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs attm.
Diurnal cu should dissipate after sunset. Winds will subside
overnight then increase again tomorrow. Slightly stronger winds
aloft tomorrow combined with better mixing will produce stronger
wind gusts (20-25kts) after 06/15z.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  86  66  87 /  20  10   5  30
Quincy          63  83  64  83 /  10  30  20  60
Columbia        62  81  63  82 /  20  50  10  60
Jefferson City  61  82  63  82 /  20  40  10  60
Salem           63  84  61  85 /  10   5   5  10
Farmington      60  81  61  83 /  20   5   5  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 051732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive that
far into the future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Made some wholesale changes to this forecast. Most notably added a
VCTS group for this afternoon. Cumulus field on satellite, as well as
HRRR model guidance suggests a few scattered cells will be possible
across the area this afternoon. Tough call whether or not the
terminals will be directly affected, but there could be some
vicinity issues. Also, overnight added some wind gusts, per model guidance.
RAP sounding for the overnight period is a bit enigmatic with respect
to gusts reaching to surface due to diurnal decoupling, but would
suggest that if gusts don`t occur that a LLWS concern will develop
overnight, with winds around 40 kts about 800 feet off the surface.
Also added -SHRA group with VCTS for 15z Wed for rain showers
encroaching from the west.

J. Leighton

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 051732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive that
far into the future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Made some wholesale changes to this forecast. Most notably added a
VCTS group for this afternoon. Cumulus field on satellite, as well as
HRRR model guidance suggests a few scattered cells will be possible
across the area this afternoon. Tough call whether or not the
terminals will be directly affected, but there could be some
vicinity issues. Also, overnight added some wind gusts, per model guidance.
RAP sounding for the overnight period is a bit enigmatic with respect
to gusts reaching to surface due to diurnal decoupling, but would
suggest that if gusts don`t occur that a LLWS concern will develop
overnight, with winds around 40 kts about 800 feet off the surface.
Also added -SHRA group with VCTS for 15z Wed for rain showers
encroaching from the west.

J. Leighton

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 051732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive that
far into the future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Made some wholesale changes to this forecast. Most notably added a
VCTS group for this afternoon. Cumulus field on satellite, as well as
HRRR model guidance suggests a few scattered cells will be possible
across the area this afternoon. Tough call whether or not the
terminals will be directly affected, but there could be some
vicinity issues. Also, overnight added some wind gusts, per model guidance.
RAP sounding for the overnight period is a bit enigmatic with respect
to gusts reaching to surface due to diurnal decoupling, but would
suggest that if gusts don`t occur that a LLWS concern will develop
overnight, with winds around 40 kts about 800 feet off the surface.
Also added -SHRA group with VCTS for 15z Wed for rain showers
encroaching from the west.

J. Leighton

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 051732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive that
far into the future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Made some wholesale changes to this forecast. Most notably added a
VCTS group for this afternoon. Cumulus field on satellite, as well as
HRRR model guidance suggests a few scattered cells will be possible
across the area this afternoon. Tough call whether or not the
terminals will be directly affected, but there could be some
vicinity issues. Also, overnight added some wind gusts, per model guidance.
RAP sounding for the overnight period is a bit enigmatic with respect
to gusts reaching to surface due to diurnal decoupling, but would
suggest that if gusts don`t occur that a LLWS concern will develop
overnight, with winds around 40 kts about 800 feet off the surface.
Also added -SHRA group with VCTS for 15z Wed for rain showers
encroaching from the west.

J. Leighton

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KSGF 051729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Seasonably warm spring weather is in store again today as
southerly winds persist around surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S.

A front will remain stalled from far northern Missouri into
southern high plains. Meanwhile disturbances will track
north across the Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough anchored over the desert southwest. While the focus
for convection will be farther to the north and west in closer
proximity of the aforementioned features isolated convection is
expected to develop by this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
rather disorganized and sparse in nature with the lack of a
focusing mechanism.

Expect an increase in the coverage of precipitation tonight across
eastern Kansas into far western Missouri as convection over the
Plains edges eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday into the
weekend as a southwesterly flow aloft evolves between an upper
level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper level trough
that will remain stationed out west.

Perturbations tracking around the periphery of this upper level
trough and interacting with a meandering frontal boundary stretching
from the southern Plains and into the Midwest will bring periodic
chances of showers and thunderstorms for several days.

The better coverage of convection will occur Wednesday from
southeastern Kansas into central Missouri and developing area wide
Friday into this weekend. While there will be rainfall potential
over several days there will be breaks in the precipitation.

The potential for organized severe weather looks to be low at
best at this time. The potential for heavy rainfall will be have
to be monitored late this week into the weekend if repetitive
rounds of convection materialize.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm but will impacted by cloud
cover and precipitation.  A decreasing trend in precipitation
is expected early next week as the front pushes to the east and a
more zonal pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in a
rather random fashion through this afternoon. Coverage will likely
peak around 21-22 UTC, with convection then decreasing heading
toward sunset.

After a generally dry and quiet evening, LLWS will start to kick
in late this evening. Convection over the Great Plains will then
start to move toward the region during the pre-dawn hours. JLN is
most likely to see thunderstorms, with convection perhaps making
it into SGF and BBG during the latter portions of the TAF period.
Have utilized PROB30 groups at this time, as confidence in overall
coverage and timing is somewhat low.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 051729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Seasonably warm spring weather is in store again today as
southerly winds persist around surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S.

A front will remain stalled from far northern Missouri into
southern high plains. Meanwhile disturbances will track
north across the Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough anchored over the desert southwest. While the focus
for convection will be farther to the north and west in closer
proximity of the aforementioned features isolated convection is
expected to develop by this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
rather disorganized and sparse in nature with the lack of a
focusing mechanism.

Expect an increase in the coverage of precipitation tonight across
eastern Kansas into far western Missouri as convection over the
Plains edges eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday into the
weekend as a southwesterly flow aloft evolves between an upper
level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper level trough
that will remain stationed out west.

Perturbations tracking around the periphery of this upper level
trough and interacting with a meandering frontal boundary stretching
from the southern Plains and into the Midwest will bring periodic
chances of showers and thunderstorms for several days.

The better coverage of convection will occur Wednesday from
southeastern Kansas into central Missouri and developing area wide
Friday into this weekend. While there will be rainfall potential
over several days there will be breaks in the precipitation.

The potential for organized severe weather looks to be low at
best at this time. The potential for heavy rainfall will be have
to be monitored late this week into the weekend if repetitive
rounds of convection materialize.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm but will impacted by cloud
cover and precipitation.  A decreasing trend in precipitation
is expected early next week as the front pushes to the east and a
more zonal pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in a
rather random fashion through this afternoon. Coverage will likely
peak around 21-22 UTC, with convection then decreasing heading
toward sunset.

After a generally dry and quiet evening, LLWS will start to kick
in late this evening. Convection over the Great Plains will then
start to move toward the region during the pre-dawn hours. JLN is
most likely to see thunderstorms, with convection perhaps making
it into SGF and BBG during the latter portions of the TAF period.
Have utilized PROB30 groups at this time, as confidence in overall
coverage and timing is somewhat low.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 051729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Seasonably warm spring weather is in store again today as
southerly winds persist around surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S.

A front will remain stalled from far northern Missouri into
southern high plains. Meanwhile disturbances will track
north across the Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough anchored over the desert southwest. While the focus
for convection will be farther to the north and west in closer
proximity of the aforementioned features isolated convection is
expected to develop by this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
rather disorganized and sparse in nature with the lack of a
focusing mechanism.

Expect an increase in the coverage of precipitation tonight across
eastern Kansas into far western Missouri as convection over the
Plains edges eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday into the
weekend as a southwesterly flow aloft evolves between an upper
level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper level trough
that will remain stationed out west.

Perturbations tracking around the periphery of this upper level
trough and interacting with a meandering frontal boundary stretching
from the southern Plains and into the Midwest will bring periodic
chances of showers and thunderstorms for several days.

The better coverage of convection will occur Wednesday from
southeastern Kansas into central Missouri and developing area wide
Friday into this weekend. While there will be rainfall potential
over several days there will be breaks in the precipitation.

The potential for organized severe weather looks to be low at
best at this time. The potential for heavy rainfall will be have
to be monitored late this week into the weekend if repetitive
rounds of convection materialize.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm but will impacted by cloud
cover and precipitation.  A decreasing trend in precipitation
is expected early next week as the front pushes to the east and a
more zonal pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in a
rather random fashion through this afternoon. Coverage will likely
peak around 21-22 UTC, with convection then decreasing heading
toward sunset.

After a generally dry and quiet evening, LLWS will start to kick
in late this evening. Convection over the Great Plains will then
start to move toward the region during the pre-dawn hours. JLN is
most likely to see thunderstorms, with convection perhaps making
it into SGF and BBG during the latter portions of the TAF period.
Have utilized PROB30 groups at this time, as confidence in overall
coverage and timing is somewhat low.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KLSX 051727
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1227 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Ongoing activity over far northern portions of forecast area to
continue diminishing this morning as front shifts a bit further
north, but with front so close could still see isolated activity.
Kept slight chance pops going for this area. Otherwise, majority
of region will be dry today though some isolated activity not out
of the question for areas along and south of I-70 where there is
no cap, decent CAPE and some weak surface moisture convergence. As
for high temps, low to mid 80s expected.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

By tonight, frontal boundary will be well north of forecast area,
with dry and mild conditions persisting overnight with lows in the
low 60s.

On Wednesday another round of activity to fire up on periphery of
surface ridge affecting central/northeast MO as well as west central
IL, before diminishing after sunset Wednesday night.

By Thursday, surface ridge shifts further to the east allowing
weather system to move closer to region. Plenty of low level
moisture to stream in with surface dewpts in the 60s and several
shortwaves slide through region as frontal boundary slowly sinks
south into forecast area. So will see several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the last part of the work week and into next
weekend. Some differences on timing and placement of system among
the extended models, so just kept with a blend of the solutions for
now. Highs will be in the 70s/80s through the period with lows in
the 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Specifics for Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but
the expected coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs attm.
Diurnal cu should dissipate after sunset. Winds will subside
overnight then increase again tomorrow. Slightly stronger winds
aloft tomorrow combined with better mixing will produce stronger
wind gusts (20-25kts) after 06/15z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 051727
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1227 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Ongoing activity over far northern portions of forecast area to
continue diminishing this morning as front shifts a bit further
north, but with front so close could still see isolated activity.
Kept slight chance pops going for this area. Otherwise, majority
of region will be dry today though some isolated activity not out
of the question for areas along and south of I-70 where there is
no cap, decent CAPE and some weak surface moisture convergence. As
for high temps, low to mid 80s expected.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

By tonight, frontal boundary will be well north of forecast area,
with dry and mild conditions persisting overnight with lows in the
low 60s.

On Wednesday another round of activity to fire up on periphery of
surface ridge affecting central/northeast MO as well as west central
IL, before diminishing after sunset Wednesday night.

By Thursday, surface ridge shifts further to the east allowing
weather system to move closer to region. Plenty of low level
moisture to stream in with surface dewpts in the 60s and several
shortwaves slide through region as frontal boundary slowly sinks
south into forecast area. So will see several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the last part of the work week and into next
weekend. Some differences on timing and placement of system among
the extended models, so just kept with a blend of the solutions for
now. Highs will be in the 70s/80s through the period with lows in
the 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Specifics for Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but
the expected coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs attm.
Diurnal cu should dissipate after sunset. Winds will subside
overnight then increase again tomorrow. Slightly stronger winds
aloft tomorrow combined with better mixing will produce stronger
wind gusts (20-25kts) after 06/15z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 051727
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1227 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Ongoing activity over far northern portions of forecast area to
continue diminishing this morning as front shifts a bit further
north, but with front so close could still see isolated activity.
Kept slight chance pops going for this area. Otherwise, majority
of region will be dry today though some isolated activity not out
of the question for areas along and south of I-70 where there is
no cap, decent CAPE and some weak surface moisture convergence. As
for high temps, low to mid 80s expected.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

By tonight, frontal boundary will be well north of forecast area,
with dry and mild conditions persisting overnight with lows in the
low 60s.

On Wednesday another round of activity to fire up on periphery of
surface ridge affecting central/northeast MO as well as west central
IL, before diminishing after sunset Wednesday night.

By Thursday, surface ridge shifts further to the east allowing
weather system to move closer to region. Plenty of low level
moisture to stream in with surface dewpts in the 60s and several
shortwaves slide through region as frontal boundary slowly sinks
south into forecast area. So will see several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the last part of the work week and into next
weekend. Some differences on timing and placement of system among
the extended models, so just kept with a blend of the solutions for
now. Highs will be in the 70s/80s through the period with lows in
the 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Specifics for Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but
the expected coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs attm.
Diurnal cu should dissipate after sunset. Winds will subside
overnight then increase again tomorrow. Slightly stronger winds
aloft tomorrow combined with better mixing will produce stronger
wind gusts (20-25kts) after 06/15z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 051727
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1227 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Ongoing activity over far northern portions of forecast area to
continue diminishing this morning as front shifts a bit further
north, but with front so close could still see isolated activity.
Kept slight chance pops going for this area. Otherwise, majority
of region will be dry today though some isolated activity not out
of the question for areas along and south of I-70 where there is
no cap, decent CAPE and some weak surface moisture convergence. As
for high temps, low to mid 80s expected.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

By tonight, frontal boundary will be well north of forecast area,
with dry and mild conditions persisting overnight with lows in the
low 60s.

On Wednesday another round of activity to fire up on periphery of
surface ridge affecting central/northeast MO as well as west central
IL, before diminishing after sunset Wednesday night.

By Thursday, surface ridge shifts further to the east allowing
weather system to move closer to region. Plenty of low level
moisture to stream in with surface dewpts in the 60s and several
shortwaves slide through region as frontal boundary slowly sinks
south into forecast area. So will see several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the last part of the work week and into next
weekend. Some differences on timing and placement of system among
the extended models, so just kept with a blend of the solutions for
now. Highs will be in the 70s/80s through the period with lows in
the 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Specifics for Isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but
the expected coverage is too sparse to include in the TAFs attm.
Diurnal cu should dissipate after sunset. Winds will subside
overnight then increase again tomorrow. Slightly stronger winds
aloft tomorrow combined with better mixing will produce stronger
wind gusts (20-25kts) after 06/15z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 051132
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
632 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Ongoing activity over far northern portions of forecast area to
continue diminishing this morning as front shifts a bit further
north, but with front so close could still see isolated activity.
Kept slight chance pops going for this area. Otherwise, majority
of region will be dry today though some isolated activity not out
of the question for areas along and south of I-70 where there is
no cap, decent CAPE and some weak surface moisture convergence. As
for high temps, low to mid 80s expected.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

By tonight, frontal boundary will be well north of forecast area,
with dry and mild conditions persisting overnight with lows in the
low 60s.

On Wednesday another round of activity to fire up on periphery of
surface ridge affecting central/northeast MO as well as west central
IL, before diminishing after sunset Wednesday night.

By Thursday, surface ridge shifts further to the east allowing
weather system to move closer to region. Plenty of low level
moisture to stream in with surface dewpts in the 60s and several
shortwaves slide through region as frontal boundary slowly sinks
south into forecast area. So will see several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the last part of the work week and into next
weekend. Some differences on timing and placement of system among
the extended models, so just kept with a blend of the solutions for
now. Highs will be in the 70s/80s through the period with lows in
the 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to dominate through the valid
TAF period. A mix of mid and high clouds will be around this
morning and this should give way to the development of rather
high-based diurnal cu during the late morning. Isolated showers or
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across southern MO
and southern IL - these should be south of the TAF sites and small
in size and short-lived.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to dominate through the valid
TAF period. A mix of mid and high clouds will be around this
morning and this should give way to the development of rather
high-based diurnal cu during the late morning. Isolated showers or
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across southern MO
and southern IL - these should remain south of the KSTL and small
in size and short-lived.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 051110
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Seasonably warm spring weather is in store again today as
southerly winds persist around surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S.

A front will remain stalled from far northern Missouri into
southern high plains. Meanwhile disturbances will track
north across the Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough anchored over the desert southwest. While the focus
for convection will be farther to the north and west in closer
proximity of the aforementioned features isolated convection is
expected to develop by this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
rather disorganized and sparse in nature with the lack of a
focusing mechanism.

Expect an increase in the coverage of precipitation tonight across
eastern Kansas into far western Missouri as convection over the
Plains edges eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday into the
weekend as a southwesterly flow aloft evolves between an upper
level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper level trough
that will remain stationed out west.

Perturbations tracking around the periphery of this upper level
trough and interacting with a meandering frontal boundary stretching
from the southern Plains and into the Midwest will bring periodic
chances of showers and thunderstorms for several days.

The better coverage of convection will occur Wednesday from
southeastern Kansas into central Missouri and developing area wide
Friday into this weekend. While there will be rainfall potential
over several days there will be breaks in the precipitation.

The potential for organized severe weather looks to be low at
best at this time. The potential for heavy rainfall will be have
to be monitored late this week into the weekend if repetitive
rounds of convection materialize.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm but will impacted by cloud
cover and precipitation.  A decreasing trend in precipitation
is expected early next week as the front pushes to the east and a
more zonal pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions are expected
through much of this TAF period from this morning through tonight.
High clouds will continue to spread across the area this morning
and may thin out some this afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will
occur late this morning into this afternoon. Some isolated showers
and storms will be possible late this morning into this afternoon,
but with limited coverage confidence in a TAF site being affected is
too low to add thunder to the TAFs at this time.

A storm system will approach from the west tonight, resulting in
mid level clouds increasing across the area. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kansas and Oklahoma
and may spread into the area later tonight into early Wednesday.
The better chances for this activity will mainly be at the KJLN
site remaining west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites through 12Z
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 051110
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Seasonably warm spring weather is in store again today as
southerly winds persist around surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S.

A front will remain stalled from far northern Missouri into
southern high plains. Meanwhile disturbances will track
north across the Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough anchored over the desert southwest. While the focus
for convection will be farther to the north and west in closer
proximity of the aforementioned features isolated convection is
expected to develop by this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
rather disorganized and sparse in nature with the lack of a
focusing mechanism.

Expect an increase in the coverage of precipitation tonight across
eastern Kansas into far western Missouri as convection over the
Plains edges eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday into the
weekend as a southwesterly flow aloft evolves between an upper
level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper level trough
that will remain stationed out west.

Perturbations tracking around the periphery of this upper level
trough and interacting with a meandering frontal boundary stretching
from the southern Plains and into the Midwest will bring periodic
chances of showers and thunderstorms for several days.

The better coverage of convection will occur Wednesday from
southeastern Kansas into central Missouri and developing area wide
Friday into this weekend. While there will be rainfall potential
over several days there will be breaks in the precipitation.

The potential for organized severe weather looks to be low at
best at this time. The potential for heavy rainfall will be have
to be monitored late this week into the weekend if repetitive
rounds of convection materialize.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm but will impacted by cloud
cover and precipitation.  A decreasing trend in precipitation
is expected early next week as the front pushes to the east and a
more zonal pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions are expected
through much of this TAF period from this morning through tonight.
High clouds will continue to spread across the area this morning
and may thin out some this afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will
occur late this morning into this afternoon. Some isolated showers
and storms will be possible late this morning into this afternoon,
but with limited coverage confidence in a TAF site being affected is
too low to add thunder to the TAFs at this time.

A storm system will approach from the west tonight, resulting in
mid level clouds increasing across the area. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kansas and Oklahoma
and may spread into the area later tonight into early Wednesday.
The better chances for this activity will mainly be at the KJLN
site remaining west of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites through 12Z
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise









000
FXUS63 KEAX 051048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive that
far into the future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Outside of some morning fog, which is dense at STJ, conditions are
expected to be VFR. Light southeasterly winds will veer to the south
late this morning and increase to around 10 to 15 kts. There may also
be some showers or storms drift into the IXD and MKC areas late this
afternoon so have mentioned a VCTS group to account for this
potential. A line of weakening storms is likely to move into the
terminals around 12Z Wednesday or later. Have left mention out of
this forecast but if the timing trends continue some storm mention
will be needed tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 051048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive that
far into the future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Outside of some morning fog, which is dense at STJ, conditions are
expected to be VFR. Light southeasterly winds will veer to the south
late this morning and increase to around 10 to 15 kts. There may also
be some showers or storms drift into the IXD and MKC areas late this
afternoon so have mentioned a VCTS group to account for this
potential. A line of weakening storms is likely to move into the
terminals around 12Z Wednesday or later. Have left mention out of
this forecast but if the timing trends continue some storm mention
will be needed tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 051048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive that
far into the future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Outside of some morning fog, which is dense at STJ, conditions are
expected to be VFR. Light southeasterly winds will veer to the south
late this morning and increase to around 10 to 15 kts. There may also
be some showers or storms drift into the IXD and MKC areas late this
afternoon so have mentioned a VCTS group to account for this
potential. A line of weakening storms is likely to move into the
terminals around 12Z Wednesday or later. Have left mention out of
this forecast but if the timing trends continue some storm mention
will be needed tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 051048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive that
far into the future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Outside of some morning fog, which is dense at STJ, conditions are
expected to be VFR. Light southeasterly winds will veer to the south
late this morning and increase to around 10 to 15 kts. There may also
be some showers or storms drift into the IXD and MKC areas late this
afternoon so have mentioned a VCTS group to account for this
potential. A line of weakening storms is likely to move into the
terminals around 12Z Wednesday or later. Have left mention out of
this forecast but if the timing trends continue some storm mention
will be needed tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KSGF 050830
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

...Warm and Unsettled Weather through the Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Seasonably warm spring weather is in store again today as
southerly winds persist around surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S.

A front will remain stalled from far northern Missouri into
southern high plains. Meanwhile disturbances will track
north across the Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough anchored over the desert southwest. While the focus
for convection will be farther to the north and west in closer
proximity of the aforementioned features isolated convection is
expected to develop by this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
rather disorganized and sparse in nature with the lack of a
focusing mechanism.

Expect an increase in the coverage of precipitation tonight across
eastern Kansas into far western Missouri as convection over the
Plains edges eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday into the
weekend as a southwesterly flow aloft evolves between an upper
level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper level trough
that will remain stationed out west.

Perturbations tracking around the periphery of this upper level
trough and interacting with a meandering frontal boundary stretching
from the southern Plains and into the Midwest will bring periodic
chances of showers and thunderstorms for several days.

The better coverage of convection will occur Wednesday from
southeastern Kansas into central Missouri and developing area wide
Friday into this weekend. While there will be rainfall potential
over several days there will be breaks in the precipitation.

The potential for organized severe weather looks to be low at
best at this time. The potential for heavy rainfall will be have
to be monitored late this week into the weekend if repetitive
rounds of convection materialize.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm but will impacted by cloud
cover and precipitation.  A decreasing trend in precipitation
is expected early next week as the front pushes to the east and a
more zonal pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

For the 06z TAFS...Scattered convection has been forming along
outflow boundary just to the north of our CWA. Expecting things to
remain well north of our forecast points through the forecast
period. Will continue VFR conditions through the period. Wind
gusts will return by mid to late morning and continue through the
afternoon as southerly winds continue south of the front.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 050830
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

...Warm and Unsettled Weather through the Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Seasonably warm spring weather is in store again today as
southerly winds persist around surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S.

A front will remain stalled from far northern Missouri into
southern high plains. Meanwhile disturbances will track
north across the Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough anchored over the desert southwest. While the focus
for convection will be farther to the north and west in closer
proximity of the aforementioned features isolated convection is
expected to develop by this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
rather disorganized and sparse in nature with the lack of a
focusing mechanism.

Expect an increase in the coverage of precipitation tonight across
eastern Kansas into far western Missouri as convection over the
Plains edges eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Increasingly unsettled weather is expected Wednesday into the
weekend as a southwesterly flow aloft evolves between an upper
level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper level trough
that will remain stationed out west.

Perturbations tracking around the periphery of this upper level
trough and interacting with a meandering frontal boundary stretching
from the southern Plains and into the Midwest will bring periodic
chances of showers and thunderstorms for several days.

The better coverage of convection will occur Wednesday from
southeastern Kansas into central Missouri and developing area wide
Friday into this weekend. While there will be rainfall potential
over several days there will be breaks in the precipitation.

The potential for organized severe weather looks to be low at
best at this time. The potential for heavy rainfall will be have
to be monitored late this week into the weekend if repetitive
rounds of convection materialize.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm but will impacted by cloud
cover and precipitation.  A decreasing trend in precipitation
is expected early next week as the front pushes to the east and a
more zonal pattern develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

For the 06z TAFS...Scattered convection has been forming along
outflow boundary just to the north of our CWA. Expecting things to
remain well north of our forecast points through the forecast
period. Will continue VFR conditions through the period. Wind
gusts will return by mid to late morning and continue through the
afternoon as southerly winds continue south of the front.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 050821
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
321 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Ongoing activity over far northern portions of forecast area to
continue diminishing this morning as front shifts a bit further
north, but with front so close could still see isolated activity.
Kept slight chance pops going for this area. Otherwise, majority
of region will be dry today though some isolated activity not out
of the question for areas along and south of I-70 where there is
no cap, decent CAPE and some weak surface moisture convergence. As
for high temps, low to mid 80s expected.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

By tonight, frontal boundary will be well north of forecast area,
with dry and mild conditions persisting overnight with lows in the
low 60s.

On Wednesday another round of activity to fire up on periphery of
surface ridge affecting central/northeast MO as well as west central
IL, before diminishing after sunset Wednesday night.

By Thursday, surface ridge shifts further to the east allowing
weather system to move closer to region. Plenty of low level
moisture to stream in with surface dewpts in the 60s and several
shortwaves slide through region as frontal boundary slowly sinks
south into forecast area. So will see several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the last part of the work week and into next
weekend. Some differences on timing and placement of system among
the extended models, so just kept with a blend of the solutions for
now. Highs will be in the 70s/80s through the period with lows in
the 60s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary focus remains on thunderstorm activity over central into
northern Missouri and west central Illinois. Looks like the best
chances for storms will be north of our forecast area in Iowa and
Illinois, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
be possible through 08-10Z this morning generally along and
northwest of a line from KVER to KPPQ. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail outside of thunderstorms. South-southwest flow will
increase to around 10kts Tuesday afternoon with gusts to around
20kts. There is a slight chance for storms again in the afternoon,
but probability is too low to mention in the terminal forecasts at
this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail at
Lambert for the rest of the night and through Tuesday. Think the
storms back over central Missouri will stay well away from the
terminal for the rest of the night. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon, but the probability is too
low to mention in the terminal forecast at this time. Southwest
flow will increase to around 10kts with gusts to around 20kts
during the afternoon. Think the prevailing direction will stay
just south of 210 degrees, but it may temporarily veer past 210 at
times.

Carney
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 050821
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
321 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

Ongoing activity over far northern portions of forecast area to
continue diminishing this morning as front shifts a bit further
north, but with front so close could still see isolated activity.
Kept slight chance pops going for this area. Otherwise, majority
of region will be dry today though some isolated activity not out
of the question for areas along and south of I-70 where there is
no cap, decent CAPE and some weak surface moisture convergence. As
for high temps, low to mid 80s expected.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

By tonight, frontal boundary will be well north of forecast area,
with dry and mild conditions persisting overnight with lows in the
low 60s.

On Wednesday another round of activity to fire up on periphery of
surface ridge affecting central/northeast MO as well as west central
IL, before diminishing after sunset Wednesday night.

By Thursday, surface ridge shifts further to the east allowing
weather system to move closer to region. Plenty of low level
moisture to stream in with surface dewpts in the 60s and several
shortwaves slide through region as frontal boundary slowly sinks
south into forecast area. So will see several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the last part of the work week and into next
weekend. Some differences on timing and placement of system among
the extended models, so just kept with a blend of the solutions for
now. Highs will be in the 70s/80s through the period with lows in
the 60s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary focus remains on thunderstorm activity over central into
northern Missouri and west central Illinois. Looks like the best
chances for storms will be north of our forecast area in Iowa and
Illinois, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
be possible through 08-10Z this morning generally along and
northwest of a line from KVER to KPPQ. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail outside of thunderstorms. South-southwest flow will
increase to around 10kts Tuesday afternoon with gusts to around
20kts. There is a slight chance for storms again in the afternoon,
but probability is too low to mention in the terminal forecasts at
this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail at
Lambert for the rest of the night and through Tuesday. Think the
storms back over central Missouri will stay well away from the
terminal for the rest of the night. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon, but the probability is too
low to mention in the terminal forecast at this time. Southwest
flow will increase to around 10kts with gusts to around 20kts
during the afternoon. Think the prevailing direction will stay
just south of 210 degrees, but it may temporarily veer past 210 at
times.

Carney
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 050820
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive tha
far into the future.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is starting to lift back
to the north and this trend will continue over the next few hours
while precipitation starts to weaken. Other than some brief
storms/downpours for the KC terminals over the next 2 hours, the
threat for persistent and strong storms has generally ended for these
areas. Tuesday will be mostly dry with more showers or storms
approaching from the west overnight, most likely after 06Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 050820
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive tha
far into the future.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is starting to lift back
to the north and this trend will continue over the next few hours
while precipitation starts to weaken. Other than some brief
storms/downpours for the KC terminals over the next 2 hours, the
threat for persistent and strong storms has generally ended for these
areas. Tuesday will be mostly dry with more showers or storms
approaching from the west overnight, most likely after 06Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 050820
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive tha
far into the future.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is starting to lift back
to the north and this trend will continue over the next few hours
while precipitation starts to weaken. Other than some brief
storms/downpours for the KC terminals over the next 2 hours, the
threat for persistent and strong storms has generally ended for these
areas. Tuesday will be mostly dry with more showers or storms
approaching from the west overnight, most likely after 06Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 050820
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For today, we should see very warm temperatures with enough humidity
to make things feel more uncomfortable than is normal for this time
of year. High temperatures look to climb into the low to mid 80s for
most locations. While most of the area looks to remain dry, there
will be a chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms in
mainly our southern zones. Forecast soundings in our south show an
uncapped environment with convective temperatures being exceeded by
the early afternoon. Several models also move some showers/storms
north during the day from southern Missouri. This activity looks to
be more isolated in nature, since there is no larger scale forcing to
drive things. However, remnant out flow boundaries from last
evening`s convection may be present and aid in development. The
severe potential looks relatively low with only modest CAPE and weak
shear. This activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
and as a result there should be a lull in activity from the early
evening hours until the predawn hours on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, a strong negatively tilted shortwave trough is
expected to eject into the Plains from the main long wave trough over
the western states. This will initiate what may be vigorous
convection in western Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and
evening. It then looks like this activity will be forced eastward
through the night ahead of the advancing shortwave trough and along
a strong low level jet with strong moisture transport nosing into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models show instability weakening
with eastward progression of this potential convective system. Shear
also decreases further east, as one moves away from the stronger mid
to upper level winds closer the shortwave. So it looks like a
weakening line of convection is possible early Wednesday morning for
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With the weak instability and
weak shear, the threat of severe weather Wednesday morning looks low.
That system, and its cloud cover, look to have an effect on our weather
throughout the day Wednesday. So temperatures should only climb into
the low to mid 70s as a result. As is the case this time of year, if
clouds break up sooner, or precipitation is heavier for longer into
the day, temperatures could be much warmer or cooler. But for now low
to mid 70s looks like a reasonable forecast at this point.

Active weather looks to persist through the end of the week and
right through Mother`s Day. The troughing over the western states
through the end of the work week will allow for persistent southerly
flow through the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. This will
maintain ample moisture for convective development and it looks like
there is good chance for storms nearly every period from Thursday
onward. For Thursday, while shear looks relatively weak early on, it
should increase by the afternoon as stronger southwesterly flow
moves over the region. With CAPE building to perhaps as much 2000
J/kg during the afternoon, there appears to be some potential for
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. This trend
looks similar for Friday, although uncertainty begins to increase as
influences from the previous rounds of convection could play a role
in any subsequent convection (cloud cover, boundaries, etc.). The bottom
line is that, we remain in a favorable pattern for thunderstorm
development with varying degrees and combinations of instability and
shear. This adds uncertainty to the timing of and intensity of any
storms Friday and Saturday. But for late in the weekend and into
early next week, models show a good deal of consistency moving a
strong, negatively tilted upper trough into the Plains and developing
a strong surface low as a result. Synoptically, this looks like a
severe weather outbreak kind of pattern for the Central Plains given
the time of year. It`s still early and things could change but the
consistency in the models depicting the environment is impressive tha
far into the future.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is starting to lift back
to the north and this trend will continue over the next few hours
while precipitation starts to weaken. Other than some brief
storms/downpours for the KC terminals over the next 2 hours, the
threat for persistent and strong storms has generally ended for these
areas. Tuesday will be mostly dry with more showers or storms
approaching from the west overnight, most likely after 06Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 050449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

With loss of daytime heating the severe threat has begun to decrease
quite a bit. However with a line of storms extending all the way into
southwest KS tracking this direction, flooding remains a concern
particularly for areas just north of the Missouri River and near and
west of I-35. These areas may see repeated rounds of storms into the
early morning hours with another inch or two of rainfall. There will
be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor
and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will
develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep
the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is starting to lift back
to the north and this trend will continue over the next few hours
while precipitation starts to weaken. Other than some brief
storms/downpours for the KC terminals over the next 2 hours, the
threat for persistent and strong storms has generally ended for these
areas. Tuesday will be mostly dry with more showers or storms
approaching from the west overnight, most likely after 06Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 050449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

With loss of daytime heating the severe threat has begun to decrease
quite a bit. However with a line of storms extending all the way into
southwest KS tracking this direction, flooding remains a concern
particularly for areas just north of the Missouri River and near and
west of I-35. These areas may see repeated rounds of storms into the
early morning hours with another inch or two of rainfall. There will
be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor
and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will
develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep
the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is starting to lift back
to the north and this trend will continue over the next few hours
while precipitation starts to weaken. Other than some brief
storms/downpours for the KC terminals over the next 2 hours, the
threat for persistent and strong storms has generally ended for these
areas. Tuesday will be mostly dry with more showers or storms
approaching from the west overnight, most likely after 06Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 050449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

With loss of daytime heating the severe threat has begun to decrease
quite a bit. However with a line of storms extending all the way into
southwest KS tracking this direction, flooding remains a concern
particularly for areas just north of the Missouri River and near and
west of I-35. These areas may see repeated rounds of storms into the
early morning hours with another inch or two of rainfall. There will
be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor
and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will
develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep
the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is starting to lift back
to the north and this trend will continue over the next few hours
while precipitation starts to weaken. Other than some brief
storms/downpours for the KC terminals over the next 2 hours, the
threat for persistent and strong storms has generally ended for these
areas. Tuesday will be mostly dry with more showers or storms
approaching from the west overnight, most likely after 06Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KSGF 050445
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

For the 06z TAFS...Scattered convection has been forming along
outflow boundary just to the north of our CWA. Expecting things to
remain well north of our forecast points through the forecast
period. Will continue VFR conditions through the period. Wind
gusts will return by mid to late morning and continue through the
afternoon as southerly winds continue south of the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 050445
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

For the 06z TAFS...Scattered convection has been forming along
outflow boundary just to the north of our CWA. Expecting things to
remain well north of our forecast points through the forecast
period. Will continue VFR conditions through the period. Wind
gusts will return by mid to late morning and continue through the
afternoon as southerly winds continue south of the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 050445
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

For the 06z TAFS...Scattered convection has been forming along
outflow boundary just to the north of our CWA. Expecting things to
remain well north of our forecast points through the forecast
period. Will continue VFR conditions through the period. Wind
gusts will return by mid to late morning and continue through the
afternoon as southerly winds continue south of the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 050440
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Main focus for thunderstorms to remain north and west of the CWA
overnight with only isolated coverage expected. Updated forecast
has been sent.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary focus remains on thunderstorm activity over central into
northern Missouri and west central Illinois. Looks like the best
chances for storms will be north of our forecast area in Iowa and
Illinois, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
be possible through 08-10Z this morning generally along and
northwest of a line from KVER to KPPQ. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail outside of thunderstorms. South-southwest flow will
increase to around 10kts Tuesday afternoon with gusts to around
20kts. There is a slight chance for storms again in the afternoon,
but probability is too low to mention in the terminal forecasts at
this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail at
Lambert for the rest of the night and through Tuesday. Think the
storms back over central Missouri will stay well away from the
terminal for the rest of the night. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon, but the probability is too
low to mention in the terminal forecast at this time. Southwest
flow will increase to around 10kts with gusts to around 20kts
during the afternoon. Think the prevailing direction will stay
just south of 210 degrees, but it may temporarily veer past 210 at
times.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 050440
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Main focus for thunderstorms to remain north and west of the CWA
overnight with only isolated coverage expected. Updated forecast
has been sent.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary focus remains on thunderstorm activity over central into
northern Missouri and west central Illinois. Looks like the best
chances for storms will be north of our forecast area in Iowa and
Illinois, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
be possible through 08-10Z this morning generally along and
northwest of a line from KVER to KPPQ. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail outside of thunderstorms. South-southwest flow will
increase to around 10kts Tuesday afternoon with gusts to around
20kts. There is a slight chance for storms again in the afternoon,
but probability is too low to mention in the terminal forecasts at
this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail at
Lambert for the rest of the night and through Tuesday. Think the
storms back over central Missouri will stay well away from the
terminal for the rest of the night. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon, but the probability is too
low to mention in the terminal forecast at this time. Southwest
flow will increase to around 10kts with gusts to around 20kts
during the afternoon. Think the prevailing direction will stay
just south of 210 degrees, but it may temporarily veer past 210 at
times.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 050440
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Main focus for thunderstorms to remain north and west of the CWA
overnight with only isolated coverage expected. Updated forecast
has been sent.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary focus remains on thunderstorm activity over central into
northern Missouri and west central Illinois. Looks like the best
chances for storms will be north of our forecast area in Iowa and
Illinois, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
be possible through 08-10Z this morning generally along and
northwest of a line from KVER to KPPQ. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail outside of thunderstorms. South-southwest flow will
increase to around 10kts Tuesday afternoon with gusts to around
20kts. There is a slight chance for storms again in the afternoon,
but probability is too low to mention in the terminal forecasts at
this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail at
Lambert for the rest of the night and through Tuesday. Think the
storms back over central Missouri will stay well away from the
terminal for the rest of the night. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon, but the probability is too
low to mention in the terminal forecast at this time. Southwest
flow will increase to around 10kts with gusts to around 20kts
during the afternoon. Think the prevailing direction will stay
just south of 210 degrees, but it may temporarily veer past 210 at
times.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 050440
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Main focus for thunderstorms to remain north and west of the CWA
overnight with only isolated coverage expected. Updated forecast
has been sent.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary focus remains on thunderstorm activity over central into
northern Missouri and west central Illinois. Looks like the best
chances for storms will be north of our forecast area in Iowa and
Illinois, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
be possible through 08-10Z this morning generally along and
northwest of a line from KVER to KPPQ. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail outside of thunderstorms. South-southwest flow will
increase to around 10kts Tuesday afternoon with gusts to around
20kts. There is a slight chance for storms again in the afternoon,
but probability is too low to mention in the terminal forecasts at
this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail at
Lambert for the rest of the night and through Tuesday. Think the
storms back over central Missouri will stay well away from the
terminal for the rest of the night. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon, but the probability is too
low to mention in the terminal forecast at this time. Southwest
flow will increase to around 10kts with gusts to around 20kts
during the afternoon. Think the prevailing direction will stay
just south of 210 degrees, but it may temporarily veer past 210 at
times.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 050359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1059 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Main focus for thunderstorms to remain north and west of the CWA
overnight with only isolated coverage expected. Updated forecast
has been sent.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary concern for this evening is convection developing and
moving along the stalled front which lies across northern
Missouri. The best chance for storms will be across northern
Missouri into west central Illinois. However, there is some chance
that the ongoing storms in western Missouri will produce a cold
pool which will move more east than northeast and potentially
impact parts of central Missouri. While this is a possibility, the
more likely scenario is to have the storms move in a more
northeasterly direction until they dissipate later tonight.
Elsewhere and otherwise...expect VFR conditions outside of active
convection. Storms should weaken and continue moving northeast out
of the area through tonight. Isolated convection is possible again
on Tuesday afternoon...though probabilities are too small to
include in the terminal forecasts at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow to prevail
at Lambert through Tuesday. The thunderstorms currently over
western Missouri should move east-northeast and stay away from the
terminal. There is and off chance that those storms could produce
a strong outflow boundary which may promote additional development
further to the south, and this could affect Lambert; but the
chance of this happening is small, so have not mentioned any
storms in the TAF at this time. There is a slight chance that an
isolated thunderstorm may move over the terminal on Tuesday
afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the
terminal forecast at this time.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 050359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1059 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Main focus for thunderstorms to remain north and west of the CWA
overnight with only isolated coverage expected. Updated forecast
has been sent.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary concern for this evening is convection developing and
moving along the stalled front which lies across northern
Missouri. The best chance for storms will be across northern
Missouri into west central Illinois. However, there is some chance
that the ongoing storms in western Missouri will produce a cold
pool which will move more east than northeast and potentially
impact parts of central Missouri. While this is a possibility, the
more likely scenario is to have the storms move in a more
northeasterly direction until they dissipate later tonight.
Elsewhere and otherwise...expect VFR conditions outside of active
convection. Storms should weaken and continue moving northeast out
of the area through tonight. Isolated convection is possible again
on Tuesday afternoon...though probabilities are too small to
include in the terminal forecasts at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow to prevail
at Lambert through Tuesday. The thunderstorms currently over
western Missouri should move east-northeast and stay away from the
terminal. There is and off chance that those storms could produce
a strong outflow boundary which may promote additional development
further to the south, and this could affect Lambert; but the
chance of this happening is small, so have not mentioned any
storms in the TAF at this time. There is a slight chance that an
isolated thunderstorm may move over the terminal on Tuesday
afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the
terminal forecast at this time.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 050359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1059 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Main focus for thunderstorms to remain north and west of the CWA
overnight with only isolated coverage expected. Updated forecast
has been sent.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary concern for this evening is convection developing and
moving along the stalled front which lies across northern
Missouri. The best chance for storms will be across northern
Missouri into west central Illinois. However, there is some chance
that the ongoing storms in western Missouri will produce a cold
pool which will move more east than northeast and potentially
impact parts of central Missouri. While this is a possibility, the
more likely scenario is to have the storms move in a more
northeasterly direction until they dissipate later tonight.
Elsewhere and otherwise...expect VFR conditions outside of active
convection. Storms should weaken and continue moving northeast out
of the area through tonight. Isolated convection is possible again
on Tuesday afternoon...though probabilities are too small to
include in the terminal forecasts at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow to prevail
at Lambert through Tuesday. The thunderstorms currently over
western Missouri should move east-northeast and stay away from the
terminal. There is and off chance that those storms could produce
a strong outflow boundary which may promote additional development
further to the south, and this could affect Lambert; but the
chance of this happening is small, so have not mentioned any
storms in the TAF at this time. There is a slight chance that an
isolated thunderstorm may move over the terminal on Tuesday
afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the
terminal forecast at this time.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 050359
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1059 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Main focus for thunderstorms to remain north and west of the CWA
overnight with only isolated coverage expected. Updated forecast
has been sent.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary concern for this evening is convection developing and
moving along the stalled front which lies across northern
Missouri. The best chance for storms will be across northern
Missouri into west central Illinois. However, there is some chance
that the ongoing storms in western Missouri will produce a cold
pool which will move more east than northeast and potentially
impact parts of central Missouri. While this is a possibility, the
more likely scenario is to have the storms move in a more
northeasterly direction until they dissipate later tonight.
Elsewhere and otherwise...expect VFR conditions outside of active
convection. Storms should weaken and continue moving northeast out
of the area through tonight. Isolated convection is possible again
on Tuesday afternoon...though probabilities are too small to
include in the terminal forecasts at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow to prevail
at Lambert through Tuesday. The thunderstorms currently over
western Missouri should move east-northeast and stay away from the
terminal. There is and off chance that those storms could produce
a strong outflow boundary which may promote additional development
further to the south, and this could affect Lambert; but the
chance of this happening is small, so have not mentioned any
storms in the TAF at this time. There is a slight chance that an
isolated thunderstorm may move over the terminal on Tuesday
afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the
terminal forecast at this time.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 050127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
827 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

With loss of daytime heating the severe threat has begun to decrease
quite a bit. However with a line of storms extending all the way into
southwest KS tracking this direction, flooding remains a concern
particularly for areas just north of the Missouri River and near and
west of I-35. These areas may see repeated rounds of storms into the
early morning hours with another inch or two of rainfall. There will
be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor
and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will
develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep
the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 050127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
827 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

With loss of daytime heating the severe threat has begun to decrease
quite a bit. However with a line of storms extending all the way into
southwest KS tracking this direction, flooding remains a concern
particularly for areas just north of the Missouri River and near and
west of I-35. These areas may see repeated rounds of storms into the
early morning hours with another inch or two of rainfall. There will
be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor
and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will
develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep
the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 050127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
827 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

With loss of daytime heating the severe threat has begun to decrease
quite a bit. However with a line of storms extending all the way into
southwest KS tracking this direction, flooding remains a concern
particularly for areas just north of the Missouri River and near and
west of I-35. These areas may see repeated rounds of storms into the
early morning hours with another inch or two of rainfall. There will
be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor
and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will
develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep
the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 050127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
827 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

With loss of daytime heating the severe threat has begun to decrease
quite a bit. However with a line of storms extending all the way into
southwest KS tracking this direction, flooding remains a concern
particularly for areas just north of the Missouri River and near and
west of I-35. These areas may see repeated rounds of storms into the
early morning hours with another inch or two of rainfall. There will
be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor
and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will
develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep
the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 050127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
827 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

With loss of daytime heating the severe threat has begun to decrease
quite a bit. However with a line of storms extending all the way into
southwest KS tracking this direction, flooding remains a concern
particularly for areas just north of the Missouri River and near and
west of I-35. These areas may see repeated rounds of storms into the
early morning hours with another inch or two of rainfall. There will
be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor
and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will
develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep
the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 050127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
827 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

With loss of daytime heating the severe threat has begun to decrease
quite a bit. However with a line of storms extending all the way into
southwest KS tracking this direction, flooding remains a concern
particularly for areas just north of the Missouri River and near and
west of I-35. These areas may see repeated rounds of storms into the
early morning hours with another inch or two of rainfall. There will
be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor
and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will
develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep
the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 050015
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
715 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary concern for this evening is convection developing and
moving along the stalled front which lies across northern
Missouri. The best chance for storms will be across northern
Missouri into west central Illinois. However, there is some chance
that the ongoing storms in western Missouri will produce a cold
pool which will move more east than northeast and potentially
impact parts of central Missouri. While this is a possibility, the
more likely scenario is to have the storms move in a more
northeasterly direction until they dissipate later tonight.
Elsewhere and otherwise...expect VFR conditions outside of active
convection. Storms should weaken and continue moving northeast out
of the area through tonight. Isolated convection is possible again
on Tuesday afternoon...though probabilities are too small to
include in the terminal forecasts at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow to prevail
at Lambert through Tuesday. The thunderstorms currently over
western Missouri should move east-northeast and stay away from the
terminal. There is and off chance that those storms could produce
a strong outflow boundary which may promote additional development
further to the south, and this could affect Lambert; but the
chance of this happening is small, so have not mentioned any
storms in the TAF at this time. There is a slight chance that an
isolated thunderstorm may move over the terminal on Tuesday
afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the
terminal forecast at this time.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 050015
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
715 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary concern for this evening is convection developing and
moving along the stalled front which lies across northern
Missouri. The best chance for storms will be across northern
Missouri into west central Illinois. However, there is some chance
that the ongoing storms in western Missouri will produce a cold
pool which will move more east than northeast and potentially
impact parts of central Missouri. While this is a possibility, the
more likely scenario is to have the storms move in a more
northeasterly direction until they dissipate later tonight.
Elsewhere and otherwise...expect VFR conditions outside of active
convection. Storms should weaken and continue moving northeast out
of the area through tonight. Isolated convection is possible again
on Tuesday afternoon...though probabilities are too small to
include in the terminal forecasts at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow to prevail
at Lambert through Tuesday. The thunderstorms currently over
western Missouri should move east-northeast and stay away from the
terminal. There is and off chance that those storms could produce
a strong outflow boundary which may promote additional development
further to the south, and this could affect Lambert; but the
chance of this happening is small, so have not mentioned any
storms in the TAF at this time. There is a slight chance that an
isolated thunderstorm may move over the terminal on Tuesday
afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the
terminal forecast at this time.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 050015
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
715 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary concern for this evening is convection developing and
moving along the stalled front which lies across northern
Missouri. The best chance for storms will be across northern
Missouri into west central Illinois. However, there is some chance
that the ongoing storms in western Missouri will produce a cold
pool which will move more east than northeast and potentially
impact parts of central Missouri. While this is a possibility, the
more likely scenario is to have the storms move in a more
northeasterly direction until they dissipate later tonight.
Elsewhere and otherwise...expect VFR conditions outside of active
convection. Storms should weaken and continue moving northeast out
of the area through tonight. Isolated convection is possible again
on Tuesday afternoon...though probabilities are too small to
include in the terminal forecasts at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow to prevail
at Lambert through Tuesday. The thunderstorms currently over
western Missouri should move east-northeast and stay away from the
terminal. There is and off chance that those storms could produce
a strong outflow boundary which may promote additional development
further to the south, and this could affect Lambert; but the
chance of this happening is small, so have not mentioned any
storms in the TAF at this time. There is a slight chance that an
isolated thunderstorm may move over the terminal on Tuesday
afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the
terminal forecast at this time.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 050015
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
715 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Primary concern for this evening is convection developing and
moving along the stalled front which lies across northern
Missouri. The best chance for storms will be across northern
Missouri into west central Illinois. However, there is some chance
that the ongoing storms in western Missouri will produce a cold
pool which will move more east than northeast and potentially
impact parts of central Missouri. While this is a possibility, the
more likely scenario is to have the storms move in a more
northeasterly direction until they dissipate later tonight.
Elsewhere and otherwise...expect VFR conditions outside of active
convection. Storms should weaken and continue moving northeast out
of the area through tonight. Isolated convection is possible again
on Tuesday afternoon...though probabilities are too small to
include in the terminal forecasts at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow to prevail
at Lambert through Tuesday. The thunderstorms currently over
western Missouri should move east-northeast and stay away from the
terminal. There is and off chance that those storms could produce
a strong outflow boundary which may promote additional development
further to the south, and this could affect Lambert; but the
chance of this happening is small, so have not mentioned any
storms in the TAF at this time. There is a slight chance that an
isolated thunderstorm may move over the terminal on Tuesday
afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the
terminal forecast at this time.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 042356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 042356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 042356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 042356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 042356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 042356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 042356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 042356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Line of strong storms stretching from central KS into northwest MO
has slowed its southward progress, and will continue to affect the
MCI and STJ terminals for several more hours but with less impacts
for MKC and IXD. Threat for high wind and hail is decreasing for the
KC terminals. Slow weakening trend through the night but could see
occasional light rain persist after midnight. Drying out for Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KSGF 042301
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period for the 00z taf
issuance. Wind gusts have already diminished and should remain so
until mid Tuesday morning. Some mid/high level clouds will be
possible, but convection is expected to remain to our north and
west through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 042301
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period for the 00z taf
issuance. Wind gusts have already diminished and should remain so
until mid Tuesday morning. Some mid/high level clouds will be
possible, but convection is expected to remain to our north and
west through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 042301
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period for the 00z taf
issuance. Wind gusts have already diminished and should remain so
until mid Tuesday morning. Some mid/high level clouds will be
possible, but convection is expected to remain to our north and
west through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 042301
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period for the 00z taf
issuance. Wind gusts have already diminished and should remain so
until mid Tuesday morning. Some mid/high level clouds will be
possible, but convection is expected to remain to our north and
west through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 042301
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period for the 00z taf
issuance. Wind gusts have already diminished and should remain so
until mid Tuesday morning. Some mid/high level clouds will be
possible, but convection is expected to remain to our north and
west through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 042301
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period for the 00z taf
issuance. Wind gusts have already diminished and should remain so
until mid Tuesday morning. Some mid/high level clouds will be
possible, but convection is expected to remain to our north and
west through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 042046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Focus this prd will be on convection assoc with a frontal bndry that
has stalled just NW of the CWA. There have been plenty of convective
debris clouds today from last nights convection that continues to
thin. A few pesky light showers and/or sprinkles have dotted the
area today...esp across cntrl MO. This activity has dvlpd into a
band of very light rain/sprinkles that arcs from near Columbia north
into NE MO and then NW back into a larger area of SHRAs/TSTMs across
ern NE and wrn IA. This band of sprinkles is fcst to drift east this
aftn and should exit the CWA early this evng. The larger batch of
precip is assoc with a weak wave of low pressure riding NE along the
stalled bndry and a subtle short wave. The upper lvl forcing should
be over nthrn IL/shtrn WI by Tuesday mrng causing the precip shield
over NE/IA to slide east overnight. Guidance indicates that the
areal coverage and intensity should increase thru the evng. SFC
based storms are just beginning to fire along the front across KS.
This is the convection that should eventually impact the CWA. Far
nthrn MO has the best chances of seeing precip this evng into the
overnight since that area is closer to sfc bndry and upper lvl
support though there is some question as to how far south convection
will drift. The threat for this scenario would be if storms can
organize and dvlp a cold pool...then the complex would stand a
better chance of pushing further SE. The SVR threat appears to be
limited due to marginal 0-6/0-8 bulk shear of 20-30 kts...though the
nthrn CWA is in a slight risk. SPC has just issued a SVR TSTM watch
across NE KS and NW MO so convective trends will have to be
monitored this evng. It will be another warm night with continued
sthrly flow and Dps in the mid 50s to near 60...so went aoa the
warmest guidance.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

An upper level RIDGE will dominate our region thru Tuesday night
before transitioning into a high-height southwest flow aloft pattern
from Wednesday thru Sunday.  A shortwave TROF will then slide thru
our region late Sunday into early Monday.

Above average temps and moisture will persist thru the upcoming
weekend with at least a small chance for rain most days, culminating
in what should be a widespread rain event associated with the strong
shortwave late in the upcoming weekend.

A bit more detail for the next couple of days...beginning with
Tuesday morning it should be mostly quiet, with a small token chance
for the Quincy area and north approaching what should be the cold
front.  During the course of the day, this small chance probably
won`t change much, but we will also add into it the potential for
isolated SHRA/TSRA for the eastern Ozarks of southeast MO northward
towards I-70 with generally weak surface moisture convergence and no
cap with the added benefit of some lift from the Ozarks as well.
This is expected to dissipate by sunset.

The next couple of rounds heading into Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly to the north and west due to the tracks of their
associated disturbances, but should progressively affect more and
more of our region moving towards the weekend as the tracks
gradually become more southerly.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

The cold front that approached the area last night has stalled
today and is currently aligned from nthrn IL to SE IA to NW MO and
then on into KS. This bndry is not expected to make much more
addtnl progress to the SE today. Pesky -SHRAs have continued to
drift across cntrl MO today with an occnl lightning strike. This
activity should continue to slowly weaken as it works east this
aftn. Another area of remnant SHRAs across cntrl IL will continue
to move away from the area. An expanding area of mainly SHRAs with
isld TSMS across ern NE and SW IA will continue to dvlp and move
east this aftn and into the envg. This activity should be tied to the
bndry which would keep the majority of the activity N of the
terminals...but I do expect KUIN to be impacted tonight and
possibly sooner. KUINs CIGs/VSBYs will be tied to the strength of
the convection...but it is too early to try and pin that detail down
attm. The bndry begins lifting back to the north after midnight
taking the threat of precip with it. The only caveat is if the
convection can get organized and push an outflow bndry SE...and
then the question becomes timing and how far it makes it before
dssptng. Either way Tuesday should be VFR.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru the prd as the nearby bndry should remain too far to
the NW of the terminal to be of any concern. Diurnal cu has dvlpd
once again with plenty of convective debris clouds slowly thinning
thru the aftn. Winds will continue to have a shtrly component.
The only caveat to the fcst is if convection along the bndry
becomes organized and pushes an outflow bndry SE tonight...then
the question becomes timing and how far SE it makes it before
dssptng but not confident enough in this scenario to include attm.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 042028
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this TAF cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22Z-00Z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05Z-07Z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the VC in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 042028
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this TAF cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22Z-00Z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05Z-07Z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the VC in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 042028
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this TAF cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22Z-00Z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05Z-07Z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the VC in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 042028
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this TAF cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22Z-00Z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05Z-07Z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the VC in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 042015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Occasionally gusty southwest winds should decrease this evening
with sunset, and then return in a similar fashion during the mid
morning hours on Tuesday. Occasional mid and high level cloud
cover is also expected, though cloud bases should remain well
above VFR thresholds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 042015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Occasionally gusty southwest winds should decrease this evening
with sunset, and then return in a similar fashion during the mid
morning hours on Tuesday. Occasional mid and high level cloud
cover is also expected, though cloud bases should remain well
above VFR thresholds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell





000
FXUS63 KSGF 042015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Occasionally gusty southwest winds should decrease this evening
with sunset, and then return in a similar fashion during the mid
morning hours on Tuesday. Occasional mid and high level cloud
cover is also expected, though cloud bases should remain well
above VFR thresholds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 042015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Another warm and breezy day has been observed across the region.
After a few sprinkles and showers to start the day, skies have been
partly cloudy with temperatures warming to around 80 degrees (give
or take a few degrees). Will be watching thunderstorms develop along
a front to the northwest and north of the area the rest of this
afternoon into this evening. At this time, system motion vectors
keep this activity to our north, but will need to watch a few rogue
cells clipping northern portions of the forecast area heading into
tonight.

Like this morning, a few sprinkles/light showers will be possible to
start the day tomorrow, but most of the day should remain dry. A few
afternoon/evening showers/storms will be possible west of Hwy 65
tomorrow afternoon as low level moisture slowly increases.

With little change in our low level thermal profiles, near
persistence temperatures can be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

We will gradually transition into a more unsettled weather pattern
from Wednesday into much of the upcoming weekend. A trough over the
western CONUS will gradually eat away at a ridge that will be slow
to exit to our east. From late Tuesday night into Thursday, our
better rain chances will be (generally) along and west of the Hwy 65
corridor. By Friday and into the weekend, the main upper level
trough will begin to approach from the west and rain chances will
spread across the entire area.

Unfortunately, the PoP forecast is rather pessimistic as there will
be numerous opportunities for showers/storms. That said, each
day/night will not be a washout and there will be some dry time.
Nevertheless, high chance to likely PoPs are the norm for much of
the extended portion of the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Occasionally gusty southwest winds should decrease this evening
with sunset, and then return in a similar fashion during the mid
morning hours on Tuesday. Occasional mid and high level cloud
cover is also expected, though cloud bases should remain well
above VFR thresholds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell





000
FXUS63 KLSX 041826
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
126 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
environment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepancies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numerous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

The cold front that approached the area last night has stalled
today and is currently aligned from nthrn IL to SE IA to NW MO and
then on into KS. This bndry is not expected to make much more
addtnl progress to the SE today. Pesky -SHRAs have continued to
drift across cntrl MO today with an occnl lightning strike. This
activity should continue to slowly weaken as it works east this
aftn. Another area of remnant SHRAs across cntrl IL will continue
to move away from the area. An expanding area of mainly SHRAs with
isld TSMS across ern NE and SW IA will continue to dvlp and move
east this aftn and into the envg. This activity should be tied to the
bndry which would keep the majority of the activity N of the
terminals...but I do expect KUIN to be impacted tonight and
possibly sooner. KUINs CIGs/VSBYs will be tied to the strength of
the convection...but it is too early to try and pin that detail down
attm. The bndry begins lifting back to the north after midnight
taking the threat of precip with it. The only caveat is if the
convection can get organized and push an outflow bndry SE...and
then the question becomes timing and how far it makes it before
dssptng. Either way Tuesday should be VFR.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru the prd as the nearby bndry should remain too far to
the NW of the terminal to be of any concern. Diurnal cu has dvlpd
once again with plenty of convective debris clouds slowly thinning
thru the aftn. Winds will continue to have a shtrly component.
The only caveat to the fcst is if convection along the bndry
becomes organized and pushes an outflow bndry SE tonight...then
the question becomes timing and how far SE it makes it before
dssptng but not confident enough in this scenario to include attm.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 041826
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
126 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
environment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepancies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numerous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

The cold front that approached the area last night has stalled
today and is currently aligned from nthrn IL to SE IA to NW MO and
then on into KS. This bndry is not expected to make much more
addtnl progress to the SE today. Pesky -SHRAs have continued to
drift across cntrl MO today with an occnl lightning strike. This
activity should continue to slowly weaken as it works east this
aftn. Another area of remnant SHRAs across cntrl IL will continue
to move away from the area. An expanding area of mainly SHRAs with
isld TSMS across ern NE and SW IA will continue to dvlp and move
east this aftn and into the envg. This activity should be tied to the
bndry which would keep the majority of the activity N of the
terminals...but I do expect KUIN to be impacted tonight and
possibly sooner. KUINs CIGs/VSBYs will be tied to the strength of
the convection...but it is too early to try and pin that detail down
attm. The bndry begins lifting back to the north after midnight
taking the threat of precip with it. The only caveat is if the
convection can get organized and push an outflow bndry SE...and
then the question becomes timing and how far it makes it before
dssptng. Either way Tuesday should be VFR.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR fcst thru the prd as the nearby bndry should remain too far to
the NW of the terminal to be of any concern. Diurnal cu has dvlpd
once again with plenty of convective debris clouds slowly thinning
thru the aftn. Winds will continue to have a shtrly component.
The only caveat to the fcst is if convection along the bndry
becomes organized and pushes an outflow bndry SE tonight...then
the question becomes timing and how far SE it makes it before
dssptng but not confident enough in this scenario to include attm.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 041718
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this TAF cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22Z-00Z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05Z-07Z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the VC in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 041718
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this TAF cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22Z-00Z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05Z-07Z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the VC in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 041718
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this TAF cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22Z-00Z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05Z-07Z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the VC in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 041718
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Main concern for aviators during this TAF cycle will be the potential
for thunderstorm activity at the terminals from late this afternoon
into tonight. VFR conds are expected thru the period with sct-bkn
mid-lvl clouds this afternoon giving way to a bkn deck around 5kft
around 22Z-00Z when thunderstorms move into the terminals. Vis
restrictions are not expected with these storms. Storms are expected
to cont at the terminals thru 05Z-07Z when thunderstorms will shift
north of the terminals however a few could remain in the VC in the
terminals until the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Otrw...expect clouds too
sct out around 10kft tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 041638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Radar is showing some spotty and very tiny showers aloft this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. These tiny showers are falling
out of ceilings above 12k feet which means most of these showers
are likely not reaching the ground. Will not rule out a few
sprinkles through mid morning but measurable rainfall is
unlikely.

We will see another warm and breezy day today with slightly more
cloud cover and some sunshine as well. The weather should remain
mostly dry through tonight as most of the active weather will be
just to out northwest through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Short term models continue to indicate a slight chance for showers
or an isolated storm or two tomorrow as a little ripple in the mid
level flow moves across the Missouri Ozarks. Rain chances will be
about 20 percent at best for Tuesday.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. will slowly move
out into the High Plains but mid week. The better potential for
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
into our western areas late Tuesday morning into Wednesday
morning. The western two thirds of the CWA will have a good chance
for rain on Wednesday with maybe the far eastern Ozarks being the
exception.

Another mid level wave will move into the area on Thursday to
bring another round of showers and storms to the western half of
the area. And another mid level wave will bring a very good chance
of showers and storms to the entire area on Friday and Friday night.

This weather pattern does`t really chance through the weekend with
a large trough across the Rockies and sending a series of mid
level waves in the flow with several rounds of storms expected.
There may be some potential for some stronger convection for the
end of the week.

With multiple rounds of convection expected through the
weekend...will have to watch for trends in QPF and rainfall
totals. We may some hydro issues to look at by next weekend.
Average QPF could be between 1 to 3 inches with some areas of
western Missouri and southeast Kansas approaching 4 inches of
rainfall through next weekend.

It appears a cold front will try to move out this weather pattern
and the rain out of here by next Monday morning. Temperatures
this week will be slightly above average with highs in the middle
70 to lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Occasionally gusty southwest winds should decrease this evening
with sunset, and then return in a similar fashion during the mid
morning hours on Tuesday. Occasional mid and high level cloud
cover is also expected, though cloud bases should remain well
above VFR thresholds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 041231
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
731 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Radar is showing some spotty and very tiny showers aloft this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. These tiny showers are falling
out of ceilings above 12k feet which means most of these showers
are likely not reaching the ground. Will not rule out a few
sprinkles through mid morning but measurable rainfall is
unlikely.

We will see another warm and breezy day today with slightly more
cloud cover and some sunshine as well. The weather should remain
mostly dry through tonight as most of the active weather will be
just to out northwest through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Short term models continue to indicate a slight chance for showers
or an isolated storm or two tomorrow as a little ripple in the mid
level flow moves across the Missouri Ozarks. Rain chances will be
about 20 percent at best for Tuesday.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. will slowly move
out into the High Plains but mid week. The better potential for
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
into our western areas late Tuesday morning into Wednesday
morning. The western two thirds of the CWA will have a good chance
for rain on Wednesday with maybe the far eastern Ozarks being the
exception.

Another mid level wave will move into the area on Thursday to
bring another round of showers and storms to the western half of
the area. And another mid level wave will bring a very good chance
of showers and storms to the entire area on Friday and Friday night.

This weather pattern does`t really chance through the weekend with
a large trough across the Rockies and sending a series of mid
level waves in the flow with several rounds of storms expected.
There may be some potential for some stronger convection for the
end of the week.

With multiple rounds of convection expected through the
weekend...will have to watch for trends in QPF and rainfall
totals. We may some hydro issues to look at by next weekend.
Average QPF could be between 1 to 3 inches with some areas of
western Missouri and southeast Kansas approaching 4 inches of
rainfall through next weekend.

It appears a cold front will try to move out this weather pattern
and the rain out of here by next Monday morning. Temperatures
this week will be slightly above average with highs in the middle
70 to lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Despite considerable cloud cover VFR conditions will prevail at
area terminals today and tonight. Southerly surface winds will
become gusty again today with gusts around 20 kts. A few showers
will be possible to the north and east of terminal sites today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 041231
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
731 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Radar is showing some spotty and very tiny showers aloft this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. These tiny showers are falling
out of ceilings above 12k feet which means most of these showers
are likely not reaching the ground. Will not rule out a few
sprinkles through mid morning but measurable rainfall is
unlikely.

We will see another warm and breezy day today with slightly more
cloud cover and some sunshine as well. The weather should remain
mostly dry through tonight as most of the active weather will be
just to out northwest through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Short term models continue to indicate a slight chance for showers
or an isolated storm or two tomorrow as a little ripple in the mid
level flow moves across the Missouri Ozarks. Rain chances will be
about 20 percent at best for Tuesday.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. will slowly move
out into the High Plains but mid week. The better potential for
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
into our western areas late Tuesday morning into Wednesday
morning. The western two thirds of the CWA will have a good chance
for rain on Wednesday with maybe the far eastern Ozarks being the
exception.

Another mid level wave will move into the area on Thursday to
bring another round of showers and storms to the western half of
the area. And another mid level wave will bring a very good chance
of showers and storms to the entire area on Friday and Friday night.

This weather pattern does`t really chance through the weekend with
a large trough across the Rockies and sending a series of mid
level waves in the flow with several rounds of storms expected.
There may be some potential for some stronger convection for the
end of the week.

With multiple rounds of convection expected through the
weekend...will have to watch for trends in QPF and rainfall
totals. We may some hydro issues to look at by next weekend.
Average QPF could be between 1 to 3 inches with some areas of
western Missouri and southeast Kansas approaching 4 inches of
rainfall through next weekend.

It appears a cold front will try to move out this weather pattern
and the rain out of here by next Monday morning. Temperatures
this week will be slightly above average with highs in the middle
70 to lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Despite considerable cloud cover VFR conditions will prevail at
area terminals today and tonight. Southerly surface winds will
become gusty again today with gusts around 20 kts. A few showers
will be possible to the north and east of terminal sites today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KLSX 041133
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
633 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
enviroment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

VFR conditions to persist through forecast period. Main issue will
be scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially this morning
and again later in the day today. Coverage is scattered this
morning, so for now have vcnty shower mention at all sites, except
KUIN where have vcnty trw mention as they are closer to frontal
boundary and activity firing along outflow boundary. Another round
of storms possible late this afternoon and evening for KUIN with
frontal boundary in area. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to
persist today with gusts to near 20kts at times, before
diminishing towards sunset.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions to persist through forecast period. Main issue will
be scattered showers this morning. Coverage is scattered, so for
now have vcnty shower mention in metro area. Otherwise, south to
southwest winds to persist today with gusts to near 20kts at
times, before diminishing towards sunset.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 041133
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
633 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
enviroment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

VFR conditions to persist through forecast period. Main issue will
be scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially this morning
and again later in the day today. Coverage is scattered this
morning, so for now have vcnty shower mention at all sites, except
KUIN where have vcnty trw mention as they are closer to frontal
boundary and activity firing along outflow boundary. Another round
of storms possible late this afternoon and evening for KUIN with
frontal boundary in area. Otherwise, south to southwest winds to
persist today with gusts to near 20kts at times, before
diminishing towards sunset.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions to persist through forecast period. Main issue will
be scattered showers this morning. Coverage is scattered, so for
now have vcnty shower mention in metro area. Otherwise, south to
southwest winds to persist today with gusts to near 20kts at
times, before diminishing towards sunset.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 041118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are developing south of the
terminals and will possibly affect them over the next several hours
as they build north. Have added several hours of a SHRA VCTS group
to the beginning of the forecast to account for this. The evolution of
this activity is very uncertain but it should tend to lift north into
the terminals over the next few hours and then move away later this
morning or early this afternoon. Beyond this activity, the chances
for storms look to have a decent chance of staying north of all of
the terminals and mainly be focused over extreme northeastern KS and
northwestern MO. With convection expected to stay north of the
terminals, have maintained a VFR forecast. There may be some
restrictions if a stronger shower moves over a terminal this morning,
but with a scattered nature anticipated will keep VFR conditions
prevailing this morning too.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 041118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are developing south of the
terminals and will possibly affect them over the next several hours
as they build north. Have added several hours of a SHRA VCTS group
to the beginning of the forecast to account for this. The evolution of
this activity is very uncertain but it should tend to lift north into
the terminals over the next few hours and then move away later this
morning or early this afternoon. Beyond this activity, the chances
for storms look to have a decent chance of staying north of all of
the terminals and mainly be focused over extreme northeastern KS and
northwestern MO. With convection expected to stay north of the
terminals, have maintained a VFR forecast. There may be some
restrictions if a stronger shower moves over a terminal this morning,
but with a scattered nature anticipated will keep VFR conditions
prevailing this morning too.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 041118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are developing south of the
terminals and will possibly affect them over the next several hours
as they build north. Have added several hours of a SHRA VCTS group
to the beginning of the forecast to account for this. The evolution of
this activity is very uncertain but it should tend to lift north into
the terminals over the next few hours and then move away later this
morning or early this afternoon. Beyond this activity, the chances
for storms look to have a decent chance of staying north of all of
the terminals and mainly be focused over extreme northeastern KS and
northwestern MO. With convection expected to stay north of the
terminals, have maintained a VFR forecast. There may be some
restrictions if a stronger shower moves over a terminal this morning,
but with a scattered nature anticipated will keep VFR conditions
prevailing this morning too.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 041118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are developing south of the
terminals and will possibly affect them over the next several hours
as they build north. Have added several hours of a SHRA VCTS group
to the beginning of the forecast to account for this. The evolution of
this activity is very uncertain but it should tend to lift north into
the terminals over the next few hours and then move away later this
morning or early this afternoon. Beyond this activity, the chances
for storms look to have a decent chance of staying north of all of
the terminals and mainly be focused over extreme northeastern KS and
northwestern MO. With convection expected to stay north of the
terminals, have maintained a VFR forecast. There may be some
restrictions if a stronger shower moves over a terminal this morning,
but with a scattered nature anticipated will keep VFR conditions
prevailing this morning too.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 041118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are developing south of the
terminals and will possibly affect them over the next several hours
as they build north. Have added several hours of a SHRA VCTS group
to the beginning of the forecast to account for this. The evolution of
this activity is very uncertain but it should tend to lift north into
the terminals over the next few hours and then move away later this
morning or early this afternoon. Beyond this activity, the chances
for storms look to have a decent chance of staying north of all of
the terminals and mainly be focused over extreme northeastern KS and
northwestern MO. With convection expected to stay north of the
terminals, have maintained a VFR forecast. There may be some
restrictions if a stronger shower moves over a terminal this morning,
but with a scattered nature anticipated will keep VFR conditions
prevailing this morning too.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 041118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are developing south of the
terminals and will possibly affect them over the next several hours
as they build north. Have added several hours of a SHRA VCTS group
to the beginning of the forecast to account for this. The evolution of
this activity is very uncertain but it should tend to lift north into
the terminals over the next few hours and then move away later this
morning or early this afternoon. Beyond this activity, the chances
for storms look to have a decent chance of staying north of all of
the terminals and mainly be focused over extreme northeastern KS and
northwestern MO. With convection expected to stay north of the
terminals, have maintained a VFR forecast. There may be some
restrictions if a stronger shower moves over a terminal this morning,
but with a scattered nature anticipated will keep VFR conditions
prevailing this morning too.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 041118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are developing south of the
terminals and will possibly affect them over the next several hours
as they build north. Have added several hours of a SHRA VCTS group
to the beginning of the forecast to account for this. The evolution of
this activity is very uncertain but it should tend to lift north into
the terminals over the next few hours and then move away later this
morning or early this afternoon. Beyond this activity, the chances
for storms look to have a decent chance of staying north of all of
the terminals and mainly be focused over extreme northeastern KS and
northwestern MO. With convection expected to stay north of the
terminals, have maintained a VFR forecast. There may be some
restrictions if a stronger shower moves over a terminal this morning,
but with a scattered nature anticipated will keep VFR conditions
prevailing this morning too.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 041118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are developing south of the
terminals and will possibly affect them over the next several hours
as they build north. Have added several hours of a SHRA VCTS group
to the beginning of the forecast to account for this. The evolution of
this activity is very uncertain but it should tend to lift north into
the terminals over the next few hours and then move away later this
morning or early this afternoon. Beyond this activity, the chances
for storms look to have a decent chance of staying north of all of
the terminals and mainly be focused over extreme northeastern KS and
northwestern MO. With convection expected to stay north of the
terminals, have maintained a VFR forecast. There may be some
restrictions if a stronger shower moves over a terminal this morning,
but with a scattered nature anticipated will keep VFR conditions
prevailing this morning too.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KLSX 040925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
enviroment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 040925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
enviroment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX









000
FXUS63 KLSX 040925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
enviroment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX









000
FXUS63 KLSX 040925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized with one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central MO
this morning. The current cluster is within a region of moisture
convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts southwesterly
LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a less favorable
enviroment as it moves southeast this morning, primarily after 12z,
however forcing may be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms within the area highlighted by the hi-res guidance.
Otherwise clouds should thin across the entire area during the later
half of the morning and into the early afternoon and when combined
with the present WAA regime and temps aloft, this should result in
another warm day with well above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoon. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternoon will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon
spanning from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I
am still thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will
maintain numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a
decided eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will
shift slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable. The
only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the area of
slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs are a
bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would think the
majority of the convection will reside along the front and northward
into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided
shift northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from
the lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 040857
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central
MO this morning. The current cluster is within a region of
moisture convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts
southwesterly LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a
less favorable enviroment as it moves southeast this morning,
primarily after 12z, however forcing may be sufficient for
scattered showers and thunderstorms within the area highlighted by
the hi-res guidance. Otherwise clouds should thin across the
entire area during the later half of the morning and into the
early afternoon and when combined with the present WAA regime and
temps aloft, this should result in another warm day with well
above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoo. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternono will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon spanning
from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I am still
thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will maintain
numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a decided
eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will shift
slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable.
The only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the
area of slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs
are a bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would
think the majority of the convection will reside along the front
and northward into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided shift
northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from the
lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 040857
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central
MO this morning. The current cluster is within a region of
moisture convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts
southwesterly LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a
less favorable enviroment as it moves southeast this morning,
primarily after 12z, however forcing may be sufficient for
scattered showers and thunderstorms within the area highlighted by
the hi-res guidance. Otherwise clouds should thin across the
entire area during the later half of the morning and into the
early afternoon and when combined with the present WAA regime and
temps aloft, this should result in another warm day with well
above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoo. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternono will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon spanning
from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I am still
thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will maintain
numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a decided
eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will shift
slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable.
The only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the
area of slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs
are a bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would
think the majority of the convection will reside along the front
and northward into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided shift
northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from the
lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 040857
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central
MO this morning. The current cluster is within a region of
moisture convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts
southwesterly LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a
less favorable enviroment as it moves southeast this morning,
primarily after 12z, however forcing may be sufficient for
scattered showers and thunderstorms within the area highlighted by
the hi-res guidance. Otherwise clouds should thin across the
entire area during the later half of the morning and into the
early afternoon and when combined with the present WAA regime and
temps aloft, this should result in another warm day with well
above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoo. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternono will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon spanning
from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I am still
thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will maintain
numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a decided
eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will shift
slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable.
The only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the
area of slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs
are a bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would
think the majority of the convection will reside along the front
and northward into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided shift
northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from the
lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 040857
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

There are 2 main areas with precipitation potential this morning.
The first is from southeast/east central MO eastward into IL where
low-mid level warm advection has resulted in spotty showers within
the last few hours. The GFS and recent runs of the HRRR suggest
this potential will persist until around mid morning. The other
area is across northeast MO/west central IL extending into parts
of central MO. The frontal convection has in general become less
organized one area from eastern IA into northern IL and another
cluster in NW MO. Both regions have generated a pre-frontal cold
pool and outflow boundary, but its the western-most area in NW MO
that bears the most watching. General movement has been to the
southeast and some of the hi-res WRFs want to bring this cluster
along with some additional development into north-central/central
MO this morning. The current cluster is within a region of
moisture convergence along the northern terminus of a 40+ kts
southwesterly LLJ and weak elevated CAPE. It should encounter a
less favorable enviroment as it moves southeast this morning,
primarily after 12z, however forcing may be sufficient for
scattered showers and thunderstorms within the area highlighted by
the hi-res guidance. Otherwise clouds should thin across the
entire area during the later half of the morning and into the
early afternoon and when combined with the present WAA regime and
temps aloft, this should result in another warm day with well
above normal highs in the 80s.

There are some discrepencies in the guidance on the southward
position of the front this afternoon and evening with the RAP and
ECMWF showing a bit more southward position into the northern part
of the CWA by 00z, while the remainder of the models keep it near
or just south of the MO/IA border. I think it will ooze south into
the far northern part of the CWA by late afternoo. Present
indications are that heating and continued low-level moistening
late morning into afternono will result in moderate instability
along the frontal zone. Good low level convergence along the
boundary combined with lift associated with a migrating short wave
moving across southern IA/northern MO should result in extensive
convective development during the later half of the afternoon spanning
from KS across northern MO/southern IA into central IL. I am still
thinking that the broad and veering southwesterly LLJ will maintain
numberous thunderstorms/clusters during the evening with a decided
eastward motion. Although the models suggest the front will shift
slightly northward overnight I am not so sure this will happen
with rain cooled air maintaining its position. However increased
ridging aloft both in the low-mid levels suggest that the forecast
of a northward shift in the convection overnight is reasonable.
The only noticeable change to the pops tonight is to expand the
area of slight chances southward a bit to I-70. The GFS and ECMWF QPFs
are a bit far south and well into the warm sector and I would
think the majority of the convection will reside along the front
and northward into the cool air.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Not much has changed in thinking from 24 hours ago with respect to
the Tuesday through weekend period. The front will make a decided shift
northward on Tuesday as ridging aloft continues to build from the
lower TN Valley into the upper MS Valley, while across southern
sections of the CWA we continue to see the models generate some
light QPF. I`m still not sold on it but will maintain low pops in
the slight range given the uncertainty. Tuesday still looks to be
another day of above normal temps with highs in the 80s.

Flow aloft becomes more south-southwest on Wednesday and a lead
impulse within this flow will traverse the western CWA prompting
an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across western MO
into central MO. Flow aloft becomes southwesterly by Thursday and
this regime persists into the weekend ahead of a upper trof/low
migrating from the western U.S. and into the central U.S.. The threat
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend gradually
ramps up and spreads west to east due to the active southwest flow
aloft with embedded disturbances, moist unstable warm sector, and
slowly encroaching cold front. Above normal temperatures should
persist through the extended period.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 040839
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to weaken and shift
eastward along the MO/IA border, and should not impact any of the TAF
sites this evening. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop
across eastern KS and western MO after 09z, but probability and
coverage of any storms will be low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 040839
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to weaken and shift
eastward along the MO/IA border, and should not impact any of the TAF
sites this evening. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop
across eastern KS and western MO after 09z, but probability and
coverage of any storms will be low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 040839
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to weaken and shift
eastward along the MO/IA border, and should not impact any of the TAF
sites this evening. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop
across eastern KS and western MO after 09z, but probability and
coverage of any storms will be low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 040822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

...Another Warm and Breezy Day...Unsettled and Stormy End of the Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Radar is showing some spotty and very tiny showers aloft this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. These tiny showers are falling
out of ceilings above 12k feet which means most of these showers
are likely not reaching the ground. Will not rule out a few
sprinkles through mid morning but measurable rainfall is
unlikely.

We will see another warm and breezy day today with slightly more
cloud cover and some sunshine as well. The weather should remain
mostly dry through tonight as most of the active weather will be
just to out northwest through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Short term models continue to indicate a slight chance for showers
or an isolated storm or two tomorrow as a little ripple in the mid
level flow moves across the Missouri Ozarks. Rain chances will be
about 20 percent at best for Tuesday.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. will slowly move
out into the High Plains but mid week. The better potential for
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
into our western areas late Tuesday morning into Wednesday
morning. The western two thirds of the CWA will have a good chance
for rain on Wednesday with maybe the far eastern Ozarks being the
exception.

Another mid level wave will move into the area on Thursday to
bring another round of showers and storms to the western half of
the area. And another mid level wave will bring a very good chance
of showers and storms to the entire area on Friday and Friday night.

This weather pattern does`t really chance through the weekend with
a large trough across the Rockies and sending a series of mid
level waves in the flow with several rounds of storms expected.
There may be some potential for some stronger convection for the
end of the week.

With multiple rounds of convection expected through the
weekend...will have to watch for trends in QPF and rainfall
totals. We may some hydro issues to look at by next weekend.
Average QPF could be between 1 to 3 inches with some areas of
western Missouri and southeast Kansas approaching 4 inches of
rainfall through next weekend.

It appears a cold front will try to move out this weather pattern
and the rain out of here by next Monday morning. Temperatures
this week will be slightly above average with highs in the middle
70 to lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the 06z tafs...convection remaining to the north of the area,
and not expecting much more than mid/high level clouds pushing
into the area from the convection to the north/west. Will maintain
a steady south wind overnight, and it should pick up again on
Monday during the day with some gustiness for the late
morning/afternoon hours. Some low end low level wind shear will
remain possible at the JLN site overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 040822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

...Another Warm and Breezy Day...Unsettled and Stormy End of the Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Radar is showing some spotty and very tiny showers aloft this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. These tiny showers are falling
out of ceilings above 12k feet which means most of these showers
are likely not reaching the ground. Will not rule out a few
sprinkles through mid morning but measurable rainfall is
unlikely.

We will see another warm and breezy day today with slightly more
cloud cover and some sunshine as well. The weather should remain
mostly dry through tonight as most of the active weather will be
just to out northwest through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Short term models continue to indicate a slight chance for showers
or an isolated storm or two tomorrow as a little ripple in the mid
level flow moves across the Missouri Ozarks. Rain chances will be
about 20 percent at best for Tuesday.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. will slowly move
out into the High Plains but mid week. The better potential for
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
into our western areas late Tuesday morning into Wednesday
morning. The western two thirds of the CWA will have a good chance
for rain on Wednesday with maybe the far eastern Ozarks being the
exception.

Another mid level wave will move into the area on Thursday to
bring another round of showers and storms to the western half of
the area. And another mid level wave will bring a very good chance
of showers and storms to the entire area on Friday and Friday night.

This weather pattern does`t really chance through the weekend with
a large trough across the Rockies and sending a series of mid
level waves in the flow with several rounds of storms expected.
There may be some potential for some stronger convection for the
end of the week.

With multiple rounds of convection expected through the
weekend...will have to watch for trends in QPF and rainfall
totals. We may some hydro issues to look at by next weekend.
Average QPF could be between 1 to 3 inches with some areas of
western Missouri and southeast Kansas approaching 4 inches of
rainfall through next weekend.

It appears a cold front will try to move out this weather pattern
and the rain out of here by next Monday morning. Temperatures
this week will be slightly above average with highs in the middle
70 to lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the 06z tafs...convection remaining to the north of the area,
and not expecting much more than mid/high level clouds pushing
into the area from the convection to the north/west. Will maintain
a steady south wind overnight, and it should pick up again on
Monday during the day with some gustiness for the late
morning/afternoon hours. Some low end low level wind shear will
remain possible at the JLN site overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 040822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

...Another Warm and Breezy Day...Unsettled and Stormy End of the Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Radar is showing some spotty and very tiny showers aloft this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. These tiny showers are falling
out of ceilings above 12k feet which means most of these showers
are likely not reaching the ground. Will not rule out a few
sprinkles through mid morning but measurable rainfall is
unlikely.

We will see another warm and breezy day today with slightly more
cloud cover and some sunshine as well. The weather should remain
mostly dry through tonight as most of the active weather will be
just to out northwest through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Short term models continue to indicate a slight chance for showers
or an isolated storm or two tomorrow as a little ripple in the mid
level flow moves across the Missouri Ozarks. Rain chances will be
about 20 percent at best for Tuesday.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. will slowly move
out into the High Plains but mid week. The better potential for
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
into our western areas late Tuesday morning into Wednesday
morning. The western two thirds of the CWA will have a good chance
for rain on Wednesday with maybe the far eastern Ozarks being the
exception.

Another mid level wave will move into the area on Thursday to
bring another round of showers and storms to the western half of
the area. And another mid level wave will bring a very good chance
of showers and storms to the entire area on Friday and Friday night.

This weather pattern does`t really chance through the weekend with
a large trough across the Rockies and sending a series of mid
level waves in the flow with several rounds of storms expected.
There may be some potential for some stronger convection for the
end of the week.

With multiple rounds of convection expected through the
weekend...will have to watch for trends in QPF and rainfall
totals. We may some hydro issues to look at by next weekend.
Average QPF could be between 1 to 3 inches with some areas of
western Missouri and southeast Kansas approaching 4 inches of
rainfall through next weekend.

It appears a cold front will try to move out this weather pattern
and the rain out of here by next Monday morning. Temperatures
this week will be slightly above average with highs in the middle
70 to lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the 06z tafs...convection remaining to the north of the area,
and not expecting much more than mid/high level clouds pushing
into the area from the convection to the north/west. Will maintain
a steady south wind overnight, and it should pick up again on
Monday during the day with some gustiness for the late
morning/afternoon hours. Some low end low level wind shear will
remain possible at the JLN site overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 040822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

...Another Warm and Breezy Day...Unsettled and Stormy End of the Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Radar is showing some spotty and very tiny showers aloft this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. These tiny showers are falling
out of ceilings above 12k feet which means most of these showers
are likely not reaching the ground. Will not rule out a few
sprinkles through mid morning but measurable rainfall is
unlikely.

We will see another warm and breezy day today with slightly more
cloud cover and some sunshine as well. The weather should remain
mostly dry through tonight as most of the active weather will be
just to out northwest through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Short term models continue to indicate a slight chance for showers
or an isolated storm or two tomorrow as a little ripple in the mid
level flow moves across the Missouri Ozarks. Rain chances will be
about 20 percent at best for Tuesday.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. will slowly move
out into the High Plains but mid week. The better potential for
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
into our western areas late Tuesday morning into Wednesday
morning. The western two thirds of the CWA will have a good chance
for rain on Wednesday with maybe the far eastern Ozarks being the
exception.

Another mid level wave will move into the area on Thursday to
bring another round of showers and storms to the western half of
the area. And another mid level wave will bring a very good chance
of showers and storms to the entire area on Friday and Friday night.

This weather pattern does`t really chance through the weekend with
a large trough across the Rockies and sending a series of mid
level waves in the flow with several rounds of storms expected.
There may be some potential for some stronger convection for the
end of the week.

With multiple rounds of convection expected through the
weekend...will have to watch for trends in QPF and rainfall
totals. We may some hydro issues to look at by next weekend.
Average QPF could be between 1 to 3 inches with some areas of
western Missouri and southeast Kansas approaching 4 inches of
rainfall through next weekend.

It appears a cold front will try to move out this weather pattern
and the rain out of here by next Monday morning. Temperatures
this week will be slightly above average with highs in the middle
70 to lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the 06z tafs...convection remaining to the north of the area,
and not expecting much more than mid/high level clouds pushing
into the area from the convection to the north/west. Will maintain
a steady south wind overnight, and it should pick up again on
Monday during the day with some gustiness for the late
morning/afternoon hours. Some low end low level wind shear will
remain possible at the JLN site overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 040822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

...Another Warm and Breezy Day...Unsettled and Stormy End of the Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Radar is showing some spotty and very tiny showers aloft this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. These tiny showers are falling
out of ceilings above 12k feet which means most of these showers
are likely not reaching the ground. Will not rule out a few
sprinkles through mid morning but measurable rainfall is
unlikely.

We will see another warm and breezy day today with slightly more
cloud cover and some sunshine as well. The weather should remain
mostly dry through tonight as most of the active weather will be
just to out northwest through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Short term models continue to indicate a slight chance for showers
or an isolated storm or two tomorrow as a little ripple in the mid
level flow moves across the Missouri Ozarks. Rain chances will be
about 20 percent at best for Tuesday.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. will slowly move
out into the High Plains but mid week. The better potential for
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
into our western areas late Tuesday morning into Wednesday
morning. The western two thirds of the CWA will have a good chance
for rain on Wednesday with maybe the far eastern Ozarks being the
exception.

Another mid level wave will move into the area on Thursday to
bring another round of showers and storms to the western half of
the area. And another mid level wave will bring a very good chance
of showers and storms to the entire area on Friday and Friday night.

This weather pattern does`t really chance through the weekend with
a large trough across the Rockies and sending a series of mid
level waves in the flow with several rounds of storms expected.
There may be some potential for some stronger convection for the
end of the week.

With multiple rounds of convection expected through the
weekend...will have to watch for trends in QPF and rainfall
totals. We may some hydro issues to look at by next weekend.
Average QPF could be between 1 to 3 inches with some areas of
western Missouri and southeast Kansas approaching 4 inches of
rainfall through next weekend.

It appears a cold front will try to move out this weather pattern
and the rain out of here by next Monday morning. Temperatures
this week will be slightly above average with highs in the middle
70 to lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the 06z tafs...convection remaining to the north of the area,
and not expecting much more than mid/high level clouds pushing
into the area from the convection to the north/west. Will maintain
a steady south wind overnight, and it should pick up again on
Monday during the day with some gustiness for the late
morning/afternoon hours. Some low end low level wind shear will
remain possible at the JLN site overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 040822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

...Another Warm and Breezy Day...Unsettled and Stormy End of the Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Radar is showing some spotty and very tiny showers aloft this
morning across the Missouri Ozarks. These tiny showers are falling
out of ceilings above 12k feet which means most of these showers
are likely not reaching the ground. Will not rule out a few
sprinkles through mid morning but measurable rainfall is
unlikely.

We will see another warm and breezy day today with slightly more
cloud cover and some sunshine as well. The weather should remain
mostly dry through tonight as most of the active weather will be
just to out northwest through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Short term models continue to indicate a slight chance for showers
or an isolated storm or two tomorrow as a little ripple in the mid
level flow moves across the Missouri Ozarks. Rain chances will be
about 20 percent at best for Tuesday.

A large upper level trough over the western U.S. will slowly move
out into the High Plains but mid week. The better potential for
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move
into our western areas late Tuesday morning into Wednesday
morning. The western two thirds of the CWA will have a good chance
for rain on Wednesday with maybe the far eastern Ozarks being the
exception.

Another mid level wave will move into the area on Thursday to
bring another round of showers and storms to the western half of
the area. And another mid level wave will bring a very good chance
of showers and storms to the entire area on Friday and Friday night.

This weather pattern does`t really chance through the weekend with
a large trough across the Rockies and sending a series of mid
level waves in the flow with several rounds of storms expected.
There may be some potential for some stronger convection for the
end of the week.

With multiple rounds of convection expected through the
weekend...will have to watch for trends in QPF and rainfall
totals. We may some hydro issues to look at by next weekend.
Average QPF could be between 1 to 3 inches with some areas of
western Missouri and southeast Kansas approaching 4 inches of
rainfall through next weekend.

It appears a cold front will try to move out this weather pattern
and the rain out of here by next Monday morning. Temperatures
this week will be slightly above average with highs in the middle
70 to lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the 06z tafs...convection remaining to the north of the area,
and not expecting much more than mid/high level clouds pushing
into the area from the convection to the north/west. Will maintain
a steady south wind overnight, and it should pick up again on
Monday during the day with some gustiness for the late
morning/afternoon hours. Some low end low level wind shear will
remain possible at the JLN site overnight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 040511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 040511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 040511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 040511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 040511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 040511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue to prevail across
the area through Monday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to drift south out of Iowa between 09Z-12Z, potentially
impacting the KUIN terminal. However, am not confident enough in
areal coverage to mention more than vicinity thunder in the TAF at
this time. Further south, short-range guidance is hinting that
there will be some high-based showers developing over east central
Missouri and southwest Illinois around 12Z. Showers should
dissipate by mid morning. VFR conditions with gusty southwest flow
is expected for Monday late morning through the afternoon.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected near a cold front which
will dip into northern Missouri. Coverage over northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois is again questionable, and much of the
activity may stay north of the area. Thunderstorm activity should
diminish through the evening.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and south-southwest flow will prevail at
Lambert. Isolated to widely scattered high based showers look
likely to develop around 12Z Monday morning. Think impacts to the
airport will be minimal...though if a heavier shower happens to
pass over the airport it could briefly drop visibility to MVFR
range. Showers should dissipate by 14-15Z. Wind will be in the
200-220 range through much of the period, increasing to around
12kts during the afternoon with gusts to 20kts. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the late afternoon, but it`s much
more likely that any thunderstorm activity will stay well north of
the terminal.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 040458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to weaken and shift
eastward along the MO/IA border, and should not impact any of the TAF
sites this evening. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop
across eastern KS and western MO after 09z, but probability and
coverage of any storms will be low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 040458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to weaken and shift
eastward along the MO/IA border, and should not impact any of the TAF
sites this evening. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop
across eastern KS and western MO after 09z, but probability and
coverage of any storms will be low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 040458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to weaken and shift
eastward along the MO/IA border, and should not impact any of the TAF
sites this evening. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop
across eastern KS and western MO after 09z, but probability and
coverage of any storms will be low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 040458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to weaken and shift
eastward along the MO/IA border, and should not impact any of the TAF
sites this evening. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop
across eastern KS and western MO after 09z, but probability and
coverage of any storms will be low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 040436
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Another beautiful spring day underway across the region. A weak
upper level disturbance is moving in from the from the west at
this time. A mid level cloud deck and a few sprinkles can be
expected as this wave moves west to east across the area the rest
of this afternoon. Temperatures have topped out around 80 degrees
(give or take) and persistence is the rule for the next few hours.

12z suite of model output offers little change to the previous
forecast. South winds will continue to be (occasionally) gusty
each day. Mainly dry conditions are expected into Tuesday as the
main storm track remains to our west and north. There are a few
caveats to this. First, will need to monitor MCS behavior to our
north late tonight and Monday morning. It is possible that this
system will shunt to the south while weakening across northern
Missouri. Have placed low PoPs across central Missouri to account
for this potential. Second, there may be enough moisture return by
Tuesday afternoon to support a few diurnally-driven storms across
portions of the Missouri Ozarks. The better rain chances will
begin late Tuesday night and into the extended portion of the
forecast.

Otherwise, expect a continuation of above average temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A digging trough over the western half of the country will begin
to push the upper level ridge east of the area through the day
Wednesday. A fairly strong upper level shortwave will move
through the flow as a surface low develops across the western
plains. The combination of the surface low, developing
southwesterly flow aloft and moisture return from the Gulf will
allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the
western Missouri and eastern Kansas during the daylight hours
Wednesday and again Thursday.

As the upper level trough slide south across the west coast and
cuts off, the surface low over the plains will move towards the
Great Lakes region and stretch a cold front south towards the four
corners region. This will act as a focusing mechanism for showers
and thunderstorms heading into Friday and through start of the
coming weekend.

The upper level system will then begin to shift east across the
Rockies and increase chances and coverage of showers and storms
into next Monday.

High pressure looks as though it will move towards the region for
Tuesday and through the middle of next week bringing more dry
weather to the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the 06z tafs...convection remaining to the north of the area,
and not expecting much more than mid/high level clouds pushing
into the area from the convection to the north/west. Will maintain
a steady south wind overnight, and it should pick up again on
Monday during the day with some gustiness for the late
morning/afternoon hours. Some low end low level wind shear will
remain possible at the JLN site overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 040436
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Another beautiful spring day underway across the region. A weak
upper level disturbance is moving in from the from the west at
this time. A mid level cloud deck and a few sprinkles can be
expected as this wave moves west to east across the area the rest
of this afternoon. Temperatures have topped out around 80 degrees
(give or take) and persistence is the rule for the next few hours.

12z suite of model output offers little change to the previous
forecast. South winds will continue to be (occasionally) gusty
each day. Mainly dry conditions are expected into Tuesday as the
main storm track remains to our west and north. There are a few
caveats to this. First, will need to monitor MCS behavior to our
north late tonight and Monday morning. It is possible that this
system will shunt to the south while weakening across northern
Missouri. Have placed low PoPs across central Missouri to account
for this potential. Second, there may be enough moisture return by
Tuesday afternoon to support a few diurnally-driven storms across
portions of the Missouri Ozarks. The better rain chances will
begin late Tuesday night and into the extended portion of the
forecast.

Otherwise, expect a continuation of above average temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A digging trough over the western half of the country will begin
to push the upper level ridge east of the area through the day
Wednesday. A fairly strong upper level shortwave will move
through the flow as a surface low develops across the western
plains. The combination of the surface low, developing
southwesterly flow aloft and moisture return from the Gulf will
allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the
western Missouri and eastern Kansas during the daylight hours
Wednesday and again Thursday.

As the upper level trough slide south across the west coast and
cuts off, the surface low over the plains will move towards the
Great Lakes region and stretch a cold front south towards the four
corners region. This will act as a focusing mechanism for showers
and thunderstorms heading into Friday and through start of the
coming weekend.

The upper level system will then begin to shift east across the
Rockies and increase chances and coverage of showers and storms
into next Monday.

High pressure looks as though it will move towards the region for
Tuesday and through the middle of next week bringing more dry
weather to the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the 06z tafs...convection remaining to the north of the area,
and not expecting much more than mid/high level clouds pushing
into the area from the convection to the north/west. Will maintain
a steady south wind overnight, and it should pick up again on
Monday during the day with some gustiness for the late
morning/afternoon hours. Some low end low level wind shear will
remain possible at the JLN site overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 032346
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

Isolated showers will continue moving southeast from eastern
Missouri into west central and southwest Illinois. Think most of
the rain will evaporate before hitting the ground and ceilings
should remain AOA 8,000 FT so there should be little if any impact
to airport operations. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
tonight. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop over Iowa
and may impact parts of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois before sunrise Monday morning. Further south...a showers
and storms may be possible between 10Z and 14Z, but confidence is
low at this time. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Monday
with additional thunderstorm development likely along the
Missouri/Iowa border into west central Illinois late in the
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions with possibly a sprinkle or two this
evening. Could see additional shower/thunderstorm development
after 10Z Monday morning, though confidence in any precipitation
is low at this time. VFR conditions and southwest flow will
continue on Monday. Sustained crosswind of 10-12kts with gusts to
20kts are possible Monday afternoon. There is a small chance of
afternoon thunderstorms, but the best chance for storms should be
well north of the terminal through 06Z Tuesday.


Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 032346
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

Isolated showers will continue moving southeast from eastern
Missouri into west central and southwest Illinois. Think most of
the rain will evaporate before hitting the ground and ceilings
should remain AOA 8,000 FT so there should be little if any impact
to airport operations. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
tonight. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop over Iowa
and may impact parts of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois before sunrise Monday morning. Further south...a showers
and storms may be possible between 10Z and 14Z, but confidence is
low at this time. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Monday
with additional thunderstorm development likely along the
Missouri/Iowa border into west central Illinois late in the
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions with possibly a sprinkle or two this
evening. Could see additional shower/thunderstorm development
after 10Z Monday morning, though confidence in any precipitation
is low at this time. VFR conditions and southwest flow will
continue on Monday. Sustained crosswind of 10-12kts with gusts to
20kts are possible Monday afternoon. There is a small chance of
afternoon thunderstorms, but the best chance for storms should be
well north of the terminal through 06Z Tuesday.


Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 032346
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

Isolated showers will continue moving southeast from eastern
Missouri into west central and southwest Illinois. Think most of
the rain will evaporate before hitting the ground and ceilings
should remain AOA 8,000 FT so there should be little if any impact
to airport operations. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
tonight. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop over Iowa
and may impact parts of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois before sunrise Monday morning. Further south...a showers
and storms may be possible between 10Z and 14Z, but confidence is
low at this time. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Monday
with additional thunderstorm development likely along the
Missouri/Iowa border into west central Illinois late in the
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions with possibly a sprinkle or two this
evening. Could see additional shower/thunderstorm development
after 10Z Monday morning, though confidence in any precipitation
is low at this time. VFR conditions and southwest flow will
continue on Monday. Sustained crosswind of 10-12kts with gusts to
20kts are possible Monday afternoon. There is a small chance of
afternoon thunderstorms, but the best chance for storms should be
well north of the terminal through 06Z Tuesday.


Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 032346
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

Isolated showers will continue moving southeast from eastern
Missouri into west central and southwest Illinois. Think most of
the rain will evaporate before hitting the ground and ceilings
should remain AOA 8,000 FT so there should be little if any impact
to airport operations. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
tonight. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop over Iowa
and may impact parts of northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois before sunrise Monday morning. Further south...a showers
and storms may be possible between 10Z and 14Z, but confidence is
low at this time. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Monday
with additional thunderstorm development likely along the
Missouri/Iowa border into west central Illinois late in the
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions with possibly a sprinkle or two this
evening. Could see additional shower/thunderstorm development
after 10Z Monday morning, though confidence in any precipitation
is low at this time. VFR conditions and southwest flow will
continue on Monday. Sustained crosswind of 10-12kts with gusts to
20kts are possible Monday afternoon. There is a small chance of
afternoon thunderstorms, but the best chance for storms should be
well north of the terminal through 06Z Tuesday.


Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 032335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the evening and early overnight
hours, then showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to build
southeast into at least the KSTJ TAF site after 06z. Expect ongoing
convection to weaken as it approaches KC area TAF sites, so have
included a period of showers with vicinity thunder for IXD, MCI, and
MKC after 08z. Showers will diminish and clear out of the region by
15z, leaving skies mainly clear for most of Monday. Winds will remain
out of the SSW through the period, generally at 10-12 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 032335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the evening and early overnight
hours, then showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to build
southeast into at least the KSTJ TAF site after 06z. Expect ongoing
convection to weaken as it approaches KC area TAF sites, so have
included a period of showers with vicinity thunder for IXD, MCI, and
MKC after 08z. Showers will diminish and clear out of the region by
15z, leaving skies mainly clear for most of Monday. Winds will remain
out of the SSW through the period, generally at 10-12 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 032335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the evening and early overnight
hours, then showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to build
southeast into at least the KSTJ TAF site after 06z. Expect ongoing
convection to weaken as it approaches KC area TAF sites, so have
included a period of showers with vicinity thunder for IXD, MCI, and
MKC after 08z. Showers will diminish and clear out of the region by
15z, leaving skies mainly clear for most of Monday. Winds will remain
out of the SSW through the period, generally at 10-12 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 032335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the evening and early overnight
hours, then showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to build
southeast into at least the KSTJ TAF site after 06z. Expect ongoing
convection to weaken as it approaches KC area TAF sites, so have
included a period of showers with vicinity thunder for IXD, MCI, and
MKC after 08z. Showers will diminish and clear out of the region by
15z, leaving skies mainly clear for most of Monday. Winds will remain
out of the SSW through the period, generally at 10-12 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 032335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the evening and early overnight
hours, then showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to build
southeast into at least the KSTJ TAF site after 06z. Expect ongoing
convection to weaken as it approaches KC area TAF sites, so have
included a period of showers with vicinity thunder for IXD, MCI, and
MKC after 08z. Showers will diminish and clear out of the region by
15z, leaving skies mainly clear for most of Monday. Winds will remain
out of the SSW through the period, generally at 10-12 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 032243
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Another beautiful spring day underway across the region. A weak
upper level disturbance is moving in from the from the west at
this time. A mid level cloud deck and a few sprinkles can be
expected as this wave moves west to east across the area the rest
of this afternoon. Temperatures have topped out around 80 degrees
(give or take) and persistence is the rule for the next few hours.

12z suite of model output offers little change to the previous
forecast. South winds will continue to be (occasionally) gusty
each day. Mainly dry conditions are expected into Tuesday as the
main storm track remains to our west and north. There are a few
caveats to this. First, will need to monitor MCS behavior to our
north late tonight and Monday morning. It is possible that this
system will shunt to the south while weakening across northern
Missouri. Have placed low PoPs across central Missouri to account
for this potential. Second, there may be enough moisture return by
Tuesday afternoon to support a few diurnally-driven storms across
portions of the Missouri Ozarks. The better rain chances will
begin late Tuesday night and into the extended portion of the
forecast.

Otherwise, expect a continuation of above average temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A digging trough over the western half of the country will begin
to push the upper level ridge east of the area through the day
Wednesday. A fairly strong upper level shortwave will move
through the flow as a surface low develops across the western
plains. The combination of the surface low, developing
southwesterly flow aloft and moisture return from the Gulf will
allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the
western Missouri and eastern Kansas during the daylight hours
Wednesday and again Thursday.

As the upper level trough slide south across the west coast and
cuts off, the surface low over the plains will move towards the
Great Lakes region and stretch a cold front south towards the four
corners region. This will act as a focusing mechanism for showers
and thunderstorms heading into Friday and through start of the
coming weekend.

The upper level system will then begin to shift east across the
Rockies and increase chances and coverage of showers and storms
into next Monday.

High pressure looks as though it will move towards the region for
Tuesday and through the middle of next week bringing more dry
weather to the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Convection occuring in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
southeast Nebraska. We are expecting this activity to remain north
of our area through the forecast period and will keep VFR
conditions going. Some marginal low level wind shear is possible
at the JLN TAF site tonight and will continue to see some mid/high
level cloudiness through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 032243
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Another beautiful spring day underway across the region. A weak
upper level disturbance is moving in from the from the west at
this time. A mid level cloud deck and a few sprinkles can be
expected as this wave moves west to east across the area the rest
of this afternoon. Temperatures have topped out around 80 degrees
(give or take) and persistence is the rule for the next few hours.

12z suite of model output offers little change to the previous
forecast. South winds will continue to be (occasionally) gusty
each day. Mainly dry conditions are expected into Tuesday as the
main storm track remains to our west and north. There are a few
caveats to this. First, will need to monitor MCS behavior to our
north late tonight and Monday morning. It is possible that this
system will shunt to the south while weakening across northern
Missouri. Have placed low PoPs across central Missouri to account
for this potential. Second, there may be enough moisture return by
Tuesday afternoon to support a few diurnally-driven storms across
portions of the Missouri Ozarks. The better rain chances will
begin late Tuesday night and into the extended portion of the
forecast.

Otherwise, expect a continuation of above average temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A digging trough over the western half of the country will begin
to push the upper level ridge east of the area through the day
Wednesday. A fairly strong upper level shortwave will move
through the flow as a surface low develops across the western
plains. The combination of the surface low, developing
southwesterly flow aloft and moisture return from the Gulf will
allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the
western Missouri and eastern Kansas during the daylight hours
Wednesday and again Thursday.

As the upper level trough slide south across the west coast and
cuts off, the surface low over the plains will move towards the
Great Lakes region and stretch a cold front south towards the four
corners region. This will act as a focusing mechanism for showers
and thunderstorms heading into Friday and through start of the
coming weekend.

The upper level system will then begin to shift east across the
Rockies and increase chances and coverage of showers and storms
into next Monday.

High pressure looks as though it will move towards the region for
Tuesday and through the middle of next week bringing more dry
weather to the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Convection occuring in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
southeast Nebraska. We are expecting this activity to remain north
of our area through the forecast period and will keep VFR
conditions going. Some marginal low level wind shear is possible
at the JLN TAF site tonight and will continue to see some mid/high
level cloudiness through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 032243
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Another beautiful spring day underway across the region. A weak
upper level disturbance is moving in from the from the west at
this time. A mid level cloud deck and a few sprinkles can be
expected as this wave moves west to east across the area the rest
of this afternoon. Temperatures have topped out around 80 degrees
(give or take) and persistence is the rule for the next few hours.

12z suite of model output offers little change to the previous
forecast. South winds will continue to be (occasionally) gusty
each day. Mainly dry conditions are expected into Tuesday as the
main storm track remains to our west and north. There are a few
caveats to this. First, will need to monitor MCS behavior to our
north late tonight and Monday morning. It is possible that this
system will shunt to the south while weakening across northern
Missouri. Have placed low PoPs across central Missouri to account
for this potential. Second, there may be enough moisture return by
Tuesday afternoon to support a few diurnally-driven storms across
portions of the Missouri Ozarks. The better rain chances will
begin late Tuesday night and into the extended portion of the
forecast.

Otherwise, expect a continuation of above average temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A digging trough over the western half of the country will begin
to push the upper level ridge east of the area through the day
Wednesday. A fairly strong upper level shortwave will move
through the flow as a surface low develops across the western
plains. The combination of the surface low, developing
southwesterly flow aloft and moisture return from the Gulf will
allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the
western Missouri and eastern Kansas during the daylight hours
Wednesday and again Thursday.

As the upper level trough slide south across the west coast and
cuts off, the surface low over the plains will move towards the
Great Lakes region and stretch a cold front south towards the four
corners region. This will act as a focusing mechanism for showers
and thunderstorms heading into Friday and through start of the
coming weekend.

The upper level system will then begin to shift east across the
Rockies and increase chances and coverage of showers and storms
into next Monday.

High pressure looks as though it will move towards the region for
Tuesday and through the middle of next week bringing more dry
weather to the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Convection occuring in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
southeast Nebraska. We are expecting this activity to remain north
of our area through the forecast period and will keep VFR
conditions going. Some marginal low level wind shear is possible
at the JLN TAF site tonight and will continue to see some mid/high
level cloudiness through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 032243
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Another beautiful spring day underway across the region. A weak
upper level disturbance is moving in from the from the west at
this time. A mid level cloud deck and a few sprinkles can be
expected as this wave moves west to east across the area the rest
of this afternoon. Temperatures have topped out around 80 degrees
(give or take) and persistence is the rule for the next few hours.

12z suite of model output offers little change to the previous
forecast. South winds will continue to be (occasionally) gusty
each day. Mainly dry conditions are expected into Tuesday as the
main storm track remains to our west and north. There are a few
caveats to this. First, will need to monitor MCS behavior to our
north late tonight and Monday morning. It is possible that this
system will shunt to the south while weakening across northern
Missouri. Have placed low PoPs across central Missouri to account
for this potential. Second, there may be enough moisture return by
Tuesday afternoon to support a few diurnally-driven storms across
portions of the Missouri Ozarks. The better rain chances will
begin late Tuesday night and into the extended portion of the
forecast.

Otherwise, expect a continuation of above average temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A digging trough over the western half of the country will begin
to push the upper level ridge east of the area through the day
Wednesday. A fairly strong upper level shortwave will move
through the flow as a surface low develops across the western
plains. The combination of the surface low, developing
southwesterly flow aloft and moisture return from the Gulf will
allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the
western Missouri and eastern Kansas during the daylight hours
Wednesday and again Thursday.

As the upper level trough slide south across the west coast and
cuts off, the surface low over the plains will move towards the
Great Lakes region and stretch a cold front south towards the four
corners region. This will act as a focusing mechanism for showers
and thunderstorms heading into Friday and through start of the
coming weekend.

The upper level system will then begin to shift east across the
Rockies and increase chances and coverage of showers and storms
into next Monday.

High pressure looks as though it will move towards the region for
Tuesday and through the middle of next week bringing more dry
weather to the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Convection occuring in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
southeast Nebraska. We are expecting this activity to remain north
of our area through the forecast period and will keep VFR
conditions going. Some marginal low level wind shear is possible
at the JLN TAF site tonight and will continue to see some mid/high
level cloudiness through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 032053
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR fcst thru the prd. The region is on the backside of a large
sfc ridge that is fcst to remain anchored just off the east coast.
This will keep the area in return flow for an extended prd.
Guidance indicates that a cold front will approach the region
tonight but should stall along or near the IA/MO border. This will
limit the best precip chances to those areas and have included a
VCSH group at KUIN late tonight to account for the
threat...though not confident that precip will make it that far
south. Can`t completely rule out precip further south tonight into
Monday mrng near I70 as these types of patterns often produce
isld light precip further east and south than expected.

Specifics for KSTL:

Dry VFR fcst with sthrly flow...diurnal cu and aftn gusts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 032053
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR fcst thru the prd. The region is on the backside of a large
sfc ridge that is fcst to remain anchored just off the east coast.
This will keep the area in return flow for an extended prd.
Guidance indicates that a cold front will approach the region
tonight but should stall along or near the IA/MO border. This will
limit the best precip chances to those areas and have included a
VCSH group at KUIN late tonight to account for the
threat...though not confident that precip will make it that far
south. Can`t completely rule out precip further south tonight into
Monday mrng near I70 as these types of patterns often produce
isld light precip further east and south than expected.

Specifics for KSTL:

Dry VFR fcst with sthrly flow...diurnal cu and aftn gusts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 032053
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR fcst thru the prd. The region is on the backside of a large
sfc ridge that is fcst to remain anchored just off the east coast.
This will keep the area in return flow for an extended prd.
Guidance indicates that a cold front will approach the region
tonight but should stall along or near the IA/MO border. This will
limit the best precip chances to those areas and have included a
VCSH group at KUIN late tonight to account for the
threat...though not confident that precip will make it that far
south. Can`t completely rule out precip further south tonight into
Monday mrng near I70 as these types of patterns often produce
isld light precip further east and south than expected.

Specifics for KSTL:

Dry VFR fcst with sthrly flow...diurnal cu and aftn gusts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 032053
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR fcst thru the prd. The region is on the backside of a large
sfc ridge that is fcst to remain anchored just off the east coast.
This will keep the area in return flow for an extended prd.
Guidance indicates that a cold front will approach the region
tonight but should stall along or near the IA/MO border. This will
limit the best precip chances to those areas and have included a
VCSH group at KUIN late tonight to account for the
threat...though not confident that precip will make it that far
south. Can`t completely rule out precip further south tonight into
Monday mrng near I70 as these types of patterns often produce
isld light precip further east and south than expected.

Specifics for KSTL:

Dry VFR fcst with sthrly flow...diurnal cu and aftn gusts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 032053
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR fcst thru the prd. The region is on the backside of a large
sfc ridge that is fcst to remain anchored just off the east coast.
This will keep the area in return flow for an extended prd.
Guidance indicates that a cold front will approach the region
tonight but should stall along or near the IA/MO border. This will
limit the best precip chances to those areas and have included a
VCSH group at KUIN late tonight to account for the
threat...though not confident that precip will make it that far
south. Can`t completely rule out precip further south tonight into
Monday mrng near I70 as these types of patterns often produce
isld light precip further east and south than expected.

Specifics for KSTL:

Dry VFR fcst with sthrly flow...diurnal cu and aftn gusts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 032053
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

The region is under the influence of sthrly flow on the back side of
a sfc ridge centered off the east coast. An area of SHRAs/sprinkles
has dvlpd in the past hour across n cntrl/NE MO. Even though there
has been an isld lightning strike, I think most of this activity
will remain on the light side through the evng before mvng east of
the nthrn CWA and dssptng. The threat is currently being covered
with sprinkles but mentionable PoPs may need to be added if the
coverage/intensity increases. A cold front will approach the area
late tonight introducing the threat of SHRAs/TSTMs into the FA after
midnight. The GFS is further south with QPF than the rest of the
model suite...though these set ups have the tendency to produce echo
further east and south than any of the models indicate...so have
slight chance PoPs extending down to I70 to account for this
uncertainty. It should be an unseasonably warm night with most
locations remaining near the 60 due to persistent sthrly flow and
Dps in the 50s.

2%

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE will build over our region beginning on Monday
and remain in effective control for much of the work week before
breaking down into a more general SW flow aloft for next weekend.
This will result in a persistence of the above average temps and
above average moisture thru the column--where disturbances, fronts,
or more general areas of forcing will have not too much trouble
resulting in rain or thunderstorms, with the greatest and most
widespread PoPs set for next weekend associated with SW flow
shortwave disturbances.  Most days will have some mentionable chance
for rain.

A surface cold front will be the primary focus for Monday and Monday
night as it is initially stalled Monday morning...remains
quasi-stationary thru much of Monday before retreating north as a
warm front Monday night.  High-end chance to likely PoPs still look
good for areas near the front in far northern MO and west-central
IL, but PoPs look to taper rapidly heading south with an absence of
discernable forcing.  The one opportunity that looks reasonable for
areas further south is Monday morning where WAA/sunrise-surprise
SHRA and TSRA could make a brief appearance.

A more traditional warm-sector setup will be in place for late
Monday night thru late Wednesday, and should give us a period of dry
wx for most locations.

The RIDGE begins to breakdown late week with a series of shortwaves
that initially give us a glancing blow but will setup future
disturbances upstream to take a more southerly course for a direct
hit.  The above normal temps look set to continue with SW flow aloft
preventing much in the way of frontal intruisions, but better
chances for rain look set across a more widespread area as these
disturbances track more thru the center of our region versus the
fringe.

Max temps each day look to be in the 80s with min temps in the 60s.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

VFR fcst thru the prd. The region is on the backside of a large
sfc ridge that is fcst to remain anchored just off the east coast.
This will keep the area in return flow for an extended prd.
Guidance indicates that a cold front will approach the region
tonight but should stall along or near the IA/MO border. This will
limit the best precip chances to those areas and have included a
VCSH group at KUIN late tonight to account for the
threat...though not confident that precip will make it that far
south. Can`t completely rule out precip further south tonight into
Monday mrng near I70 as these types of patterns often produce
isld light precip further east and south than expected.

Specifics for KSTL:

Dry VFR fcst with sthrly flow...diurnal cu and aftn gusts.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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