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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260042
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to Low Temperatures Tonight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Temperatures have quickly tanked early this evening given clear
skies, light winds, and low dew points. We have lowered "overnight
lows" to account for this. Temperatures over many locations will
actually steady off and start to rise later this evening as clouds
increase and winds begin to increase out of the south. Thus,
actual low temperatures over many areas will occur this evening.

Updates already sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A quick moving low pressure system will dive southeast across the
central United States late tonight and Wednesday morning. This
system will produce a mixture of rain and snow, with the southern
extent of this precipitation clipping portions of southern
Missouri. The Springfield terminal stands the best chance of
receiving precipitation...thus a TEMPO group was included for
MVFR. Confidence is lower that Branson will receive precipitation.
Joplin will likely remain dry. As this system passes, a cold
front will move though the region bringing brisk and gusty west to
northwest winds by Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 260042
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to Low Temperatures Tonight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Temperatures have quickly tanked early this evening given clear
skies, light winds, and low dew points. We have lowered "overnight
lows" to account for this. Temperatures over many locations will
actually steady off and start to rise later this evening as clouds
increase and winds begin to increase out of the south. Thus,
actual low temperatures over many areas will occur this evening.

Updates already sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A quick moving low pressure system will dive southeast across the
central United States late tonight and Wednesday morning. This
system will produce a mixture of rain and snow, with the southern
extent of this precipitation clipping portions of southern
Missouri. The Springfield terminal stands the best chance of
receiving precipitation...thus a TEMPO group was included for
MVFR. Confidence is lower that Branson will receive precipitation.
Joplin will likely remain dry. As this system passes, a cold
front will move though the region bringing brisk and gusty west to
northwest winds by Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLSX 252357
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

(Tonight through Wednesday night)

Main focus will be the potential for some accumulating snow over the
region during the day on Wednesday.  Low amplitude trough currently
entering the northern CONUS will dive southeastward and strengthen
over the Plains tonight.  The GFS has shown decent run-to-run
continuity with this feature and the ECMWF has come into agreement
with it`s solution that large scale ascent will become more
widespread as the trough moves into central and northeast Missouri
toward daybreak.  At this time it appears this ascent will be
concentrated along and west of the Mississippi River between 12-18Z
and then shift east into Illinois during the afternoon.  Most of the
forecast soundings suggest this will be snow during the morning
hours when the when the low levels will be the coldest and the
ascent will be the strongest.  By nightfall, the upper trough will
be moving quickly east of the area which will cause subsidence to
set by evening.  Have just slight chances of snow going during the
evening hours over Illinois.

MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement during this period
and generally followed.  High temperatures tomorrow will be warm
enough to cause the snow to mix with or change over to rain which
will cut back on total snowfall amounts, particularly along and
south of I-70. Did not change going snow amounts too much. Still
appears that northeast Missouri will get around 1 inch of snowfall
with lesser amounts to the south centered along the Mississippi
River.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

(Thursday and Friday)

Upper pattern will gradually flatten out and temperatures will begin
to warm back up during this period as the models are in good
agreement that surface high will pass through the area on Thursday
night.  By Friday, south to southwesterly winds will advect warmer
air into the area which bring temperatures back to normal.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

GFS and ECMWF still agree that upper pattern will be zonal over the
weekend with a cold front moving south across the CWA on Saturday
night and Sunday. Still looks like chances for precipitation will
increase along the the front by late in the weekend as both models
show a shortwave wave trough moving through the area on Sunday
night. Then model solutions become more divergent by early next
week as the GFS is slightly more southwesterly aloft with an
approaching storm system whereas the ECMWF stays more zonal.
Temperatures ahead of the front on Saturday still look like they
will be about 10 degree above normal with 850mb temps around +10C.
Then temperatures will be closer to normal behind the front as
coldest air will not be able to come down because of the zonal
flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

The latest data continues to indicate VFR flight conditions and
dry weather tonight with clouds increasing and thickening across
the region. A northwest flow storm system will impact the area on
Wednesday with precipitation spreading in KCOU between 13-14z and
KUIN and the St. Louis area terminals between 16-17z. Temperature
structure at the onset of the precipitation suggests all snow at
KCOU and KUIN with predominately MVFR flight conditions, while
there is more uncertainty in the ptype at and KSTL/KSUS/KCPS with
snow at the onset and then mixing with rain. Flight conditions
could lower into the IFR category during the precipitation.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions and dry weather expected tonight through mid
morning on Wednesday with clouds increasing and thickening. A
northwest flow storm system will impact the area on Wednesday with
precipitation spreading into KSTL between 16-17z. There is some
uncertainty in the ptype, however at this time the thinking is
that we will see snow at the onset and then mixing with rain in
the afternoon. Flight conditions could lower into the IFR category
during the precipitation.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252355
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A quick moving low pressure system will dive southeast across the
central United States late tonight and Wednesday morning. This
system will produce a mixture of rain and snow, with the southern
extent of this precipitation clipping portions of southern
Missouri. The Springfield terminal stands the best chance of
receiving precipitation...thus a TEMPO group was included for
MVFR. Confidence is lower that Branson will receive precipitation.
Joplin will likely remain dry. As this system passes, a cold
front will move though the region bringing brisk and gusty west to
northwest winds by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252355
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A quick moving low pressure system will dive southeast across the
central United States late tonight and Wednesday morning. This
system will produce a mixture of rain and snow, with the southern
extent of this precipitation clipping portions of southern
Missouri. The Springfield terminal stands the best chance of
receiving precipitation...thus a TEMPO group was included for
MVFR. Confidence is lower that Branson will receive precipitation.
Joplin will likely remain dry. As this system passes, a cold
front will move though the region bringing brisk and gusty west to
northwest winds by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 252336
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
536 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overcast high lvl clouds have begun to filter into the terminals
with bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds not far behind. Moisture should continue
to build top down through tonight with MVFR cigs and a rain snow mix
moving into the terminals btn 07Z-09Z. Precipitation will be light
and no accumulation is expected as temperatures will remain at or
above freezing through the overnight hours. A cold front will move
through the terminals btn 11Z-13Z veering winds from the SSW to the
NW around 10kts. MVFR cigs will lift to 3-4kft btn 15Z-16Z and winds
will pick up to 15-20kts with gusts to around 30kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 252336
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
536 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overcast high lvl clouds have begun to filter into the terminals
with bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds not far behind. Moisture should continue
to build top down through tonight with MVFR cigs and a rain snow mix
moving into the terminals btn 07Z-09Z. Precipitation will be light
and no accumulation is expected as temperatures will remain at or
above freezing through the overnight hours. A cold front will move
through the terminals btn 11Z-13Z veering winds from the SSW to the
NW around 10kts. MVFR cigs will lift to 3-4kft btn 15Z-16Z and winds
will pick up to 15-20kts with gusts to around 30kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KLSX 252158
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

(Tonight through Wednesday night)

Main focus will be the potential for some accumulating snow over the
region during the day on Wednesday.  Low amplitude trough currently
entering the northern CONUS will dive southeastward and strengthen
over the Plains tonight.  The GFS has shown decent run-to-run
continuity with this feature and the ECMWF has come into agreement
with it`s solution that large scale ascent will become more
widespread as the trough moves into central and northeast Missouri
toward daybreak.  At this time it appears this ascent will be
concentrated along and west of the Mississippi River between 12-18Z
and then shift east into Illinois during the afternoon.  Most of the
forecast soundings suggest this will be snow during the morning
hours when the when the low levels will be the coldest and the
ascent will be the strongest.  By nightfall, the upper trough will
be moving quickly east of the area which will cause subsidence to
set by evening.  Have just slight chances of snow going during the
evening hours over Illinois.

MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement during this period
and generally followed.  High temperatures tomorrow will be warm
enough to cause the snow to mix with or change over to rain which
will cut back on total snowfall amounts, particularly along and
south of I-70. Did not change going snow amounts too much. Still
appears that northeast Missouri will get around 1 inch of snowfall
with lesser amounts to the south centered along the Mississippi
River.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

(Thursday and Friday)

Upper pattern will gradually flatten out and temperatures will begin
to warm back up during this period as the models are in good
agreement that surface high will pass through the area on Thursday
night.  By Friday, south to southwesterly winds will advect warmer
air into the area which bring temperatures back to normal.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

GFS and ECMWF still agree that upper pattern will be zonal over the
weekend with a cold front moving south across the CWA on Saturday
night and Sunday. Still looks like chances for precipitation will
increase along the the front by late in the weekend as both models
show a shortwave wave trough moving through the area on Sunday
night. Then model solutions become more divergent by early next
week as the GFS is slightly more southwesterly aloft with an
approaching storm system whereas the ECMWF stays more zonal.
Temperatures ahead of the front on Saturday still look like they
will be about 10 degree above normal with 850mb temps around +10C.
Then temperatures will be closer to normal behind the front as
coldest air will not be able to come down because of the zonal
flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR and dry conditions expected thru 12z Tues. Clouds will
gradually move into the region, thicken and lower thru this
period. Winds will gradually back to swly this afternoon and
become sely late tonight. Precip is expected to begin as all SN
at all terminals Tues mid to late morning depending on site.
Latest guidance suggests COU will change to RA around 18z, while
UIN will remain SN thru the afternoon. Much more uncertainty
exists for SUS/CPS with the sfc fnt in the region, but may change
to a RASN mix in the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru 15z Tues. Winds will be aob 8
kts and gradually back and become light and vrb tonight. Winds
will pick up out of the SE Tues morning. Precip is expected to
start as SN and possibly mix with RA during the late afternoon.
However, have low confidence in precip type during the afternoon.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 252158
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

(Tonight through Wednesday night)

Main focus will be the potential for some accumulating snow over the
region during the day on Wednesday.  Low amplitude trough currently
entering the northern CONUS will dive southeastward and strengthen
over the Plains tonight.  The GFS has shown decent run-to-run
continuity with this feature and the ECMWF has come into agreement
with it`s solution that large scale ascent will become more
widespread as the trough moves into central and northeast Missouri
toward daybreak.  At this time it appears this ascent will be
concentrated along and west of the Mississippi River between 12-18Z
and then shift east into Illinois during the afternoon.  Most of the
forecast soundings suggest this will be snow during the morning
hours when the when the low levels will be the coldest and the
ascent will be the strongest.  By nightfall, the upper trough will
be moving quickly east of the area which will cause subsidence to
set by evening.  Have just slight chances of snow going during the
evening hours over Illinois.

MOS guidance temperatures are in good agreement during this period
and generally followed.  High temperatures tomorrow will be warm
enough to cause the snow to mix with or change over to rain which
will cut back on total snowfall amounts, particularly along and
south of I-70. Did not change going snow amounts too much. Still
appears that northeast Missouri will get around 1 inch of snowfall
with lesser amounts to the south centered along the Mississippi
River.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

(Thursday and Friday)

Upper pattern will gradually flatten out and temperatures will begin
to warm back up during this period as the models are in good
agreement that surface high will pass through the area on Thursday
night.  By Friday, south to southwesterly winds will advect warmer
air into the area which bring temperatures back to normal.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

GFS and ECMWF still agree that upper pattern will be zonal over the
weekend with a cold front moving south across the CWA on Saturday
night and Sunday. Still looks like chances for precipitation will
increase along the the front by late in the weekend as both models
show a shortwave wave trough moving through the area on Sunday
night. Then model solutions become more divergent by early next
week as the GFS is slightly more southwesterly aloft with an
approaching storm system whereas the ECMWF stays more zonal.
Temperatures ahead of the front on Saturday still look like they
will be about 10 degree above normal with 850mb temps around +10C.
Then temperatures will be closer to normal behind the front as
coldest air will not be able to come down because of the zonal
flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR and dry conditions expected thru 12z Tues. Clouds will
gradually move into the region, thicken and lower thru this
period. Winds will gradually back to swly this afternoon and
become sely late tonight. Precip is expected to begin as all SN
at all terminals Tues mid to late morning depending on site.
Latest guidance suggests COU will change to RA around 18z, while
UIN will remain SN thru the afternoon. Much more uncertainty
exists for SUS/CPS with the sfc fnt in the region, but may change
to a RASN mix in the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru 15z Tues. Winds will be aob 8
kts and gradually back and become light and vrb tonight. Winds
will pick up out of the SE Tues morning. Precip is expected to
start as SN and possibly mix with RA during the late afternoon.
However, have low confidence in precip type during the afternoon.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252139
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
339 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Chance of Light Snow Wednesday then Quiet Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252139
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
339 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Chance of Light Snow Wednesday then Quiet Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252139
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
339 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Chance of Light Snow Wednesday then Quiet Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252139
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
339 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Chance of Light Snow Wednesday then Quiet Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A tranquil weather day prevailed across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains today as surface high pressure shifted to the east.
Meanwhile the next system of interest was sliding southeast across
the northern Plains as depicted by water vapor imagery.

Clouds will increase through the night as this shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest. While moisture influx will be
meager more than ample synoptic scale lift will accompany this
system to squeeze out available moisture. Strong positive
vorticity advection along with isentropic ascent will support
substantial vertical lift along and northeast of a developing
warm front late tonight into Wednesday. This warm front will
stretch northwest to southeast across southern Missouri by early
Wednesday morning.

Expect a band of light snow to develop from northwest to southeast
from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks toward sunrise into
Wednesday morning. Progged thermal profiles suggest that
precipitation will be predominantly snow through Wednesday morning
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix.

The lack of quality moisture and rapid movement of this system
will preclude significant snow accumulations. However, given the
strength of lift, a relatively brief period of moderate snow could
develop early Wednesday morning generally east of a line from
Warsaw to Lebanon to West Plains where a quick dusting to one half
inch of snow accumulation could occur. Local accumulations around
one inch cannot be ruled out across the eastern Ozarks. Those with
travel plans Wednesday morning across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks should stay tuned to the latest weather
information.

Expect temperatures to rise above freezing area wide by Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A zonal upper pattern will evolve as weather through the
Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The result will be warming
temperatures and predominantly dry weather.

After a seasonably cool conditions Thanksgiving day temperatures
will climb above normal by Saturday with highs in the 60s. A front
will drop southward through the region Sunday with a chance of
rain across southern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. The
relatively tranquil weather will persist through early next week
with next chance of significant precipitation developing during
middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue into this evening before MVFR ceilings
move in later tonight. High clouds will increase in coverage through
the evening as a quick clipper system nears the region. Low clouds
will build area by 6-9Z with a rain/snow shower mix possible...little
to no accumulations are expected at the terminals. As the system
swings through winds will veer around to the northwest and become
gusty through the remainder of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 252108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Current water vapor satellite imagery and H5 heights show tonight`s
quick-moving Alberta Clipper system beginning to deepen as it moves
into the Dakota`s and the longwave trough moving through the central
US. Light southwest winds allowed for temperatures to climb into the
lower to mid 40s across much of the southwestern half of the CWA.
These temperatures will fall into the lower 30s overnight with upper
20s across the northeast corner of CWA. The aforementioned clipper
system will quickly dive south and bring an initial spout of
rain/snow mix to parts of northeast KS and northwest MO before
changing over to all snow as it moves eastward into slightly colder
temperatures. Surface observations are showing increasing moisture
ahead of the incoming system as upwind dewpoints have climbed into
the mid to upper 20s. Buffer soundings show the column moistening
through 07Z with much of the column saturated by 09Z, however,
dendritic layer remains out of reach for much of the western most
CWA thus a light rain to rain/snow mix can be expected...little to
now accumulation expected. Further east, where greatest lift will
occur, rain/snow mix will change over to all snow with amounts of a
half inch to around an inch can be expected.

The system will quickly move out of the area by early tomorrow
afternoon, but sky cover hanging around through the afternoon. High
pressure will move in behind the system with general northwest flow
aloft.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the Friday - Monday
period across the local region. The upper flow will become more
zonal throughout the CONUS and this will generally result in above
normal temperature for northwestern Missouri and northeastern
Kansas. However, as temperatures go up, they must come back down too.
Models are in good agreement moving a front through the area Sunday,
knocking temperatures from the upper 50s and lower 60s, back into the
20s to perhaps the lower 30s. Depending on the timing of the front,
highs could be set very early in the day. Have trimmed highs a bit
from the forecast initialization, especially across northern portions
of the forecast area, where the cold advection should be ongoing for
longer duration. That front may also bring small chances for
precipitation. Given the uncertainty with timing and the resultant
uncertainty with temperatures, have only mentioned rain during the
day with a rain transitioning to snow for the overnight period. But
chances for any precipitation are low at this time, around 20%, and
models seem to have trended drier on the frontal passage and any post
frontal precipitation. This round of cold air will be short-lived,
thankfully, as the surface high moves over the Great Lakes/southern
Ontario region. This will turn low-level flow back to the south late
Monday with southerly flow and strong warm advection and warmer
temperatures by Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue into this evening before MVFR ceilings
move in later tonight. High clouds will increase in coverage through
the evening as a quick clipper system nears the region. Low clouds
will build area by 6-9Z with a rain/snow shower mix possible...little
to no accumulations are expected at the terminals. As the system
swings through winds will veer around to the northwest and become
gusty through the remainder of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251805
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1153 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Increased cloud cover across ern portions of the CWA thru much of
the afternoon. Have lowered temps slightly over this area, but
shud see a quick jump in temps this afternoon when the clouds
clear.

Tilly

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR and dry conditions expected thru 12z Tues. Clouds will
gradually move into the region, thicken and lower thru this
period. Winds will gradually back to swly this afternoon and
become sely late tonight. Precip is expected to begin as all SN
at all terminals Tues mid to late morning depending on site.
Latest guidance suggests COU will change to RA around 18z, while
UIN will remain SN thru the afternoon. Much more uncertainty
exists for SUS/CPS with the sfc fnt in the region, but may change
to a RASN mix in the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru 15z Tues. Winds will be aob 8
kts and gradually back and become light and vrb tonight. Winds
will pick up out of the SE Tues morning. Precip is expected to
start as SN and possibly mix with RA during the late afternoon.
However, have low confidence in precip type during the afternoon.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251805
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1205 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1153 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Increased cloud cover across ern portions of the CWA thru much of
the afternoon. Have lowered temps slightly over this area, but
shud see a quick jump in temps this afternoon when the clouds
clear.

Tilly

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR and dry conditions expected thru 12z Tues. Clouds will
gradually move into the region, thicken and lower thru this
period. Winds will gradually back to swly this afternoon and
become sely late tonight. Precip is expected to begin as all SN
at all terminals Tues mid to late morning depending on site.
Latest guidance suggests COU will change to RA around 18z, while
UIN will remain SN thru the afternoon. Much more uncertainty
exists for SUS/CPS with the sfc fnt in the region, but may change
to a RASN mix in the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru 15z Tues. Winds will be aob 8
kts and gradually back and become light and vrb tonight. Winds
will pick up out of the SE Tues morning. Precip is expected to
start as SN and possibly mix with RA during the late afternoon.
However, have low confidence in precip type during the afternoon.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue into this evening before MVFR ceilings
move in later tonight. High clouds will increase in coverage through
the evening as a quick clipper system nears the region. Low clouds
will build area by 6-9Z with a rain/snow shower mix possible...little
to no accumulations are expected at the terminals. As the system
swings through winds will veer around to the northwest and become
gusty through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue into this evening before MVFR ceilings
move in later tonight. High clouds will increase in coverage through
the evening as a quick clipper system nears the region. Low clouds
will build area by 6-9Z with a rain/snow shower mix possible...little
to no accumulations are expected at the terminals. As the system
swings through winds will veer around to the northwest and become
gusty through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251729
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR and dry conditions expected thru 12z Tues. Clouds will
gradually move into the region, thicken and lower thru this
period. Winds will gradually back to swly this afternoon and
become sely late tonight. Precip is expected to begin as all SN
at all terminals Tues mid to late morning depending on site.
Latest guidance suggests COU will change to RA around 18z, while
UIN will remain SN thru the afternoon. Much more uncertainty
exists for SUS/CPS with the sfc fnt in the region, but may change
to a RASN mix in the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru 15z Tues. Winds will be aob 8
kts and gradually back and become light and vrb tonight. Winds
will pick up out of the SE Tues morning. Precip is expected to
start as SN and possibly mix with RA during the late afternoon.
However, have low confidence in precip type during the afternoon.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251729
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR and dry conditions expected thru 12z Tues. Clouds will
gradually move into the region, thicken and lower thru this
period. Winds will gradually back to swly this afternoon and
become sely late tonight. Precip is expected to begin as all SN
at all terminals Tues mid to late morning depending on site.
Latest guidance suggests COU will change to RA around 18z, while
UIN will remain SN thru the afternoon. Much more uncertainty
exists for SUS/CPS with the sfc fnt in the region, but may change
to a RASN mix in the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru 15z Tues. Winds will be aob 8
kts and gradually back and become light and vrb tonight. Winds
will pick up out of the SE Tues morning. Precip is expected to
start as SN and possibly mix with RA during the late afternoon.
However, have low confidence in precip type during the afternoon.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251729
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR and dry conditions expected thru 12z Tues. Clouds will
gradually move into the region, thicken and lower thru this
period. Winds will gradually back to swly this afternoon and
become sely late tonight. Precip is expected to begin as all SN
at all terminals Tues mid to late morning depending on site.
Latest guidance suggests COU will change to RA around 18z, while
UIN will remain SN thru the afternoon. Much more uncertainty
exists for SUS/CPS with the sfc fnt in the region, but may change
to a RASN mix in the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru 15z Tues. Winds will be aob 8
kts and gradually back and become light and vrb tonight. Winds
will pick up out of the SE Tues morning. Precip is expected to
start as SN and possibly mix with RA during the late afternoon.
However, have low confidence in precip type during the afternoon.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251729
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

VFR and dry conditions expected thru 12z Tues. Clouds will
gradually move into the region, thicken and lower thru this
period. Winds will gradually back to swly this afternoon and
become sely late tonight. Precip is expected to begin as all SN
at all terminals Tues mid to late morning depending on site.
Latest guidance suggests COU will change to RA around 18z, while
UIN will remain SN thru the afternoon. Much more uncertainty
exists for SUS/CPS with the sfc fnt in the region, but may change
to a RASN mix in the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru 15z Tues. Winds will be aob 8
kts and gradually back and become light and vrb tonight. Winds
will pick up out of the SE Tues morning. Precip is expected to
start as SN and possibly mix with RA during the late afternoon.
However, have low confidence in precip type during the afternoon.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A weak disturbance will track
across northern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. Some
light precipitation will occur with this system but at this time
this precipitation is expected to remain to the north and east of
the TAF sites.

Ahead of this disturbance sunny skies will occur this afternoon
then mid level clouds will increase overnight as it approaches the
region. Winds will be out of the west early this afternoon before
becoming southwesterly later this afternoon into this evening.
Westerly winds will then return Wednesday morning and will
increase and become gusty.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251155
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Surface high pressure across the plains will keep flight
conditions fair into this evening with northwesterly surface
winds becoming southerly through the day. High overcast will
overspread the region overnight and through early Wednesday
morning.

an approaching low level jet will allow for low level wind shear
to develop for the Joplin terminal after 09z Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 251155
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Surface high pressure across the plains will keep flight
conditions fair into this evening with northwesterly surface
winds becoming southerly through the day. High overcast will
overspread the region overnight and through early Wednesday
morning.

an approaching low level jet will allow for low level wind shear
to develop for the Joplin terminal after 09z Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 251155
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Surface high pressure across the plains will keep flight
conditions fair into this evening with northwesterly surface
winds becoming southerly through the day. High overcast will
overspread the region overnight and through early Wednesday
morning.

an approaching low level jet will allow for low level wind shear
to develop for the Joplin terminal after 09z Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 251155
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Surface high pressure across the plains will keep flight
conditions fair into this evening with northwesterly surface
winds becoming southerly through the day. High overcast will
overspread the region overnight and through early Wednesday
morning.

an approaching low level jet will allow for low level wind shear
to develop for the Joplin terminal after 09z Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KEAX 251143
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the day, with winds
gradually backing with time. Clouds will increase this evening as
clipper system approaches. MVFR ceilings expected at terminals
beginning between 07-09Z, with areas of light rain/snow possible.
Heaviest precipitation rates with reduced visibility should remain
northeast of terminal locations.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251143
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the day, with winds
gradually backing with time. Clouds will increase this evening as
clipper system approaches. MVFR ceilings expected at terminals
beginning between 07-09Z, with areas of light rain/snow possible.
Heaviest precipitation rates with reduced visibility should remain
northeast of terminal locations.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251143
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the day, with winds
gradually backing with time. Clouds will increase this evening as
clipper system approaches. MVFR ceilings expected at terminals
beginning between 07-09Z, with areas of light rain/snow possible.
Heaviest precipitation rates with reduced visibility should remain
northeast of terminal locations.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251143
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the day, with winds
gradually backing with time. Clouds will increase this evening as
clipper system approaches. MVFR ceilings expected at terminals
beginning between 07-09Z, with areas of light rain/snow possible.
Heaviest precipitation rates with reduced visibility should remain
northeast of terminal locations.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251139
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
539 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Back edge of MVFR cigs (2-3kft) associated with cold air SC now
stretches from just W of KUIN to W sections of STL metro area, and
is moving southeast at ~ 20kts. Current rate of movement has all
of this cloudiness pushing east of the Mississippi River and
exiting UIN and STL metro area TAFs in the 13-15z time frame. VFR
conditions should then prevail for the rest of the day and into
the evening, with VFR mid clouds aoa 8kft thickening across the
area after 06z as cloudiness associated with upstream clipper
overspreads the region. Precip associated with the clipper should
begin to threaten UIN and COU just after 12z Wednesday, with this
threat moving into STL metro by mid-late morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Early morning MVFR cigs 2-3kft at start of
TAF period will advect east of airport complex by 14z, with VFR
conditions/mostly clear skies then expected for the rest of the
day and into the evening. Mid clouds in advance of approaching
system will move into the area during the predawn hours, with
cigs lowering to around 3kft as precip forms by mid/late Wednesday
morning.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     38  29  41  29 /   5   5  70  20
Quincy          35  27  37  23 /   5  10  60  10
Columbia        39  30  40  25 /   0  30  50   5
Jefferson City  40  30  42  27 /   0  20  50   5
Salem           37  27  39  30 /   5   0  60  20
Farmington      40  27  43  29 /   0   5  50  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251139
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
539 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Back edge of MVFR cigs (2-3kft) associated with cold air SC now
stretches from just W of KUIN to W sections of STL metro area, and
is moving southeast at ~ 20kts. Current rate of movement has all
of this cloudiness pushing east of the Mississippi River and
exiting UIN and STL metro area TAFs in the 13-15z time frame. VFR
conditions should then prevail for the rest of the day and into
the evening, with VFR mid clouds aoa 8kft thickening across the
area after 06z as cloudiness associated with upstream clipper
overspreads the region. Precip associated with the clipper should
begin to threaten UIN and COU just after 12z Wednesday, with this
threat moving into STL metro by mid-late morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Early morning MVFR cigs 2-3kft at start of
TAF period will advect east of airport complex by 14z, with VFR
conditions/mostly clear skies then expected for the rest of the
day and into the evening. Mid clouds in advance of approaching
system will move into the area during the predawn hours, with
cigs lowering to around 3kft as precip forms by mid/late Wednesday
morning.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     38  29  41  29 /   5   5  70  20
Quincy          35  27  37  23 /   5  10  60  10
Columbia        39  30  40  25 /   0  30  50   5
Jefferson City  40  30  42  27 /   0  20  50   5
Salem           37  27  39  30 /   5   0  60  20
Farmington      40  27  43  29 /   0   5  50  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250951
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Low level clouds continue to rotate southeastward through
northeast MO and west central IL this evening, southwest of the
deep surface low just northeast of the Great Lakes region. These
clouds may remain just east northeast of COU late tonight, but
will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and may also move
through the St Louis metro area. There will be at least a brief
period of MVFR cloud heights in UIN, and also possibly in the St
Louis metro area as well. These low level clouds should completely
shift east of UIN and the St Louis metro area Tuesday morning.
W-nwly surface winds will weaken and lose the gustiness late
tonight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. The surface wind
will back around to a swly direction Tuesday afternoon at UIN and
COU as the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of these taf
sites, and become light in the St Louis metro area Tuesday
evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds across northern MO may advect
southeastward into STL late tonight with a brief period of MVFR
cigs possible. These clouds will shift east of STL by Tuesday
morning. W-nwly surface wind will weaken to around 8 kts late
tonight, then become light early Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     38  29  41  29 /   5   5  70  20
Quincy          35  27  37  23 /   5  10  60  10
Columbia        39  30  40  25 /   0  30  50   5
Jefferson City  40  30  42  27 /   0  20  50   5
Salem           37  27  39  30 /   5   0  60  20
Farmington      40  27  43  29 /   0   5  50  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250951
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Low level clouds continue to rotate southeastward through
northeast MO and west central IL this evening, southwest of the
deep surface low just northeast of the Great Lakes region. These
clouds may remain just east northeast of COU late tonight, but
will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and may also move
through the St Louis metro area. There will be at least a brief
period of MVFR cloud heights in UIN, and also possibly in the St
Louis metro area as well. These low level clouds should completely
shift east of UIN and the St Louis metro area Tuesday morning.
W-nwly surface winds will weaken and lose the gustiness late
tonight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. The surface wind
will back around to a swly direction Tuesday afternoon at UIN and
COU as the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of these taf
sites, and become light in the St Louis metro area Tuesday
evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds across northern MO may advect
southeastward into STL late tonight with a brief period of MVFR
cigs possible. These clouds will shift east of STL by Tuesday
morning. W-nwly surface wind will weaken to around 8 kts late
tonight, then become light early Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     38  29  41  29 /   5   5  70  20
Quincy          35  27  37  23 /   5  10  60  10
Columbia        39  30  40  25 /   0  30  50   5
Jefferson City  40  30  42  27 /   0  20  50   5
Salem           37  27  39  30 /   5   0  60  20
Farmington      40  27  43  29 /   0   5  50  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250951
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Low level clouds continue to rotate southeastward through
northeast MO and west central IL this evening, southwest of the
deep surface low just northeast of the Great Lakes region. These
clouds may remain just east northeast of COU late tonight, but
will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and may also move
through the St Louis metro area. There will be at least a brief
period of MVFR cloud heights in UIN, and also possibly in the St
Louis metro area as well. These low level clouds should completely
shift east of UIN and the St Louis metro area Tuesday morning.
W-nwly surface winds will weaken and lose the gustiness late
tonight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. The surface wind
will back around to a swly direction Tuesday afternoon at UIN and
COU as the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of these taf
sites, and become light in the St Louis metro area Tuesday
evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds across northern MO may advect
southeastward into STL late tonight with a brief period of MVFR
cigs possible. These clouds will shift east of STL by Tuesday
morning. W-nwly surface wind will weaken to around 8 kts late
tonight, then become light early Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     38  29  41  29 /   5   5  70  20
Quincy          35  27  37  23 /   5  10  60  10
Columbia        39  30  40  25 /   0  30  50   5
Jefferson City  40  30  42  27 /   0  20  50   5
Salem           37  27  39  30 /   5   0  60  20
Farmington      40  27  43  29 /   0   5  50  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250951
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

Cool on Thanksgiving Day behind Wednesday`s system as a 1035mb high
builds into the Mississippi Valley with highs struggling into the
low to mid 30s across most of the area.  However, the longwave trof
over the eastern CONUS will begin to translate eastward later
Thursday and Thursday night.  This pattern shift will set up a
warming trend for Friday and Saturday.  Southwest flow will prevail
both days which will provide us with increasing low level moisture
as well as warming temperatures.  Temperatures will rise into the
40s and 50s Friday and mid 50s to low 60s Saturday.  Both GFS and
ECMWF show some transient areas of light QPF on Saturday, but
believe this is the typical reaction to strong low level moisture
advection.  In most of these cases there is little if any actual
precipitation.  Another clipper moves across the Upper Midwest which
drags a cold front into northern Missouri Saturday night into
Sunday.  This front becomes quasi-stationary over our area which
will make temperature forecasting for Sunday and Monday quite
difficult.  Medium range guidance is in good agreement at this time
with the front dipping south Sunday night and Monday as a strong
high pressure system dips into the Northern Plains from Canada and
then shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest.  Both GFS and ECMWF
print out precip as the front moves south...looks like most likely
from over-running warm advection at 850mb.  Think chance/slight
chance PoPs in the MOS blend look good at this time with slowly
falling temperatures for Sunday through Monday.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Low level clouds continue to rotate southeastward through
northeast MO and west central IL this evening, southwest of the
deep surface low just northeast of the Great Lakes region. These
clouds may remain just east northeast of COU late tonight, but
will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and may also move
through the St Louis metro area. There will be at least a brief
period of MVFR cloud heights in UIN, and also possibly in the St
Louis metro area as well. These low level clouds should completely
shift east of UIN and the St Louis metro area Tuesday morning.
W-nwly surface winds will weaken and lose the gustiness late
tonight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. The surface wind
will back around to a swly direction Tuesday afternoon at UIN and
COU as the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of these taf
sites, and become light in the St Louis metro area Tuesday
evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds across northern MO may advect
southeastward into STL late tonight with a brief period of MVFR
cigs possible. These clouds will shift east of STL by Tuesday
morning. W-nwly surface wind will weaken to around 8 kts late
tonight, then become light early Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     38  29  41  29 /   5   5  70  20
Quincy          35  27  37  23 /   5  10  60  10
Columbia        39  30  40  25 /   0  30  50   5
Jefferson City  40  30  42  27 /   0  20  50   5
Salem           37  27  39  30 /   5   0  60  20
Farmington      40  27  43  29 /   0   5  50  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250927
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Latest models runs indicate the clipper that will move across
the area on Wednesday will be slightly deeper than previous runs
with slightly more QPF.  Have increased PoPs, particularly on
Wednesday, when the NAM and GFS show swath of decent ascent moving
across the CWA during the morning hours.  Precipitation type should
be mainly snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before low
level  temperatures warm during the afternoon.  Should be enough
moisture with this clipper for some minor snow accumulations over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.  Then the system will
quickly move out of the area leaving Wednesday night and Thursday
dry.

Stayed close to reasonable MOS guidance for temperatures which will
be below normal through Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

GFS and ECMWF agree that upper pattern will be zonal through the
extended period with an upper trough approaching the area from the
west by next Monday.  Even with the current agreement with the upper
pattern and no big systems moving across the area, timing of weak
troughs can be difficult with zonal flow so there is some
uncertainty with this forecast. Then there is good agreement in both
models that a cold front will move southeast across the area on
Sunday night, though with zonal flow staying over the area the
coldest air will not move into the area. Both models are showing
some precipitation developing along this front over the area on
Sunday and Monday.  Still looks like low level flow will be
southwestly on Friday and Saturday with 850mb temperatures near +10C
on both models on Saturday.  This supports above normal temperatures
both days.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Low level clouds continue to rotate southeastward through
northeast MO and west central IL this evening, southwest of the
deep surface low just northeast of the Great Lakes region. These
clouds may remain just east northeast of COU late tonight, but
will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and may also move
through the St Louis metro area. There will be at least a brief
period of MVFR cloud heights in UIN, and also possibly in the St
Louis metro area as well. These low level clouds should completely
shift east of UIN and the St Louis metro area Tuesday morning.
W-nwly surface winds will weaken and lose the gustiness late
tonight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. The surface wind
will back around to a swly direction Tuesday afternoon at UIN and
COU as the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of these taf
sites, and become light in the St Louis metro area Tuesday
evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds across northern MO may advect
southeastward into STL late tonight with a brief period of MVFR
cigs possible. These clouds will shift east of STL by Tuesday
morning. W-nwly surface wind will weaken to around 8 kts late
tonight, then become light early Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     38  29  41  29 /   5   5  70  20
Quincy          35  27  37  23 /   5  10  60  10
Columbia        39  30  40  25 /   0  30  50   5
Jefferson City  40  30  42  27 /   0  20  50   5
Salem           37  27  39  30 /   5   0  60  20
Farmington      40  27  43  29 /   0   5  50  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250927
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

West-northwest flow will continue through most of the day today
as a weak surface ridge tries to move into the Mississippi Valley.
Short range guidance is indicating that the clouds currently over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois should clear out
during the morning. Expect temperatures to rise into 35-40 degree
range across most of the area under a partly to mostly sunny sky
today.

Meanwhile, shortwave upstream over Alberta will dive down into the
longwave trof over the central CONUS.  The surface clipper is now
forecast to dive southeast through the Missouri Valley tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Guidance seems to be in pretty good
agreement that the surface low will be near Kirksville at around 18Z
Wednesday.  Low will continue off to the southeast into Kentucky
Wednesday night.  Mid-level shortwave energy combined with weak to
moderate frontogenetical forcing and even some upper level
divergence on the left exit region of an upper level jet streak will
combine to produce a band of precip which will affect areas
primarily along and east of the low track.  This will encompass most
if not all of our CWFA on Wednesday.  BUFKIT soundings from the NAM
and GFS do support mostly snow during the morning, with a potential
for mix of snow and/or rain in the afternoon.  Expect surface
temperatures to be near or just above freezing at the initial
outset with slowly rising temperatures through the day.  Current
thinking is that accumulations will be an inch or less, but this
could change quite a bit if the low shifts its track either to the
west or to the east.  Some lingering sprinkles or light snow will
likely continue over eastern areas during the evening, drying out
overnight with lows dipping back into the 20s.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Latest models runs indicate the clipper that will move across
the area on Wednesday will be slightly deeper than previous runs
with slightly more QPF.  Have increased PoPs, particularly on
Wednesday, when the NAM and GFS show swath of decent ascent moving
across the CWA during the morning hours.  Precipitation type should
be mainly snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before low
level  temperatures warm during the afternoon.  Should be enough
moisture with this clipper for some minor snow accumulations over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.  Then the system will
quickly move out of the area leaving Wednesday night and Thursday
dry.

Stayed close to reasonable MOS guidance for temperatures which will
be below normal through Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

GFS and ECMWF agree that upper pattern will be zonal through the
extended period with an upper trough approaching the area from the
west by next Monday.  Even with the current agreement with the upper
pattern and no big systems moving across the area, timing of weak
troughs can be difficult with zonal flow so there is some
uncertainty with this forecast. Then there is good agreement in both
models that a cold front will move southeast across the area on
Sunday night, though with zonal flow staying over the area the
coldest air will not move into the area. Both models are showing
some precipitation developing along this front over the area on
Sunday and Monday.  Still looks like low level flow will be
southwestly on Friday and Saturday with 850mb temperatures near +10C
on both models on Saturday.  This supports above normal temperatures
both days.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Low level clouds continue to rotate southeastward through
northeast MO and west central IL this evening, southwest of the
deep surface low just northeast of the Great Lakes region. These
clouds may remain just east northeast of COU late tonight, but
will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and may also move
through the St Louis metro area. There will be at least a brief
period of MVFR cloud heights in UIN, and also possibly in the St
Louis metro area as well. These low level clouds should completely
shift east of UIN and the St Louis metro area Tuesday morning.
W-nwly surface winds will weaken and lose the gustiness late
tonight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. The surface wind
will back around to a swly direction Tuesday afternoon at UIN and
COU as the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of these taf
sites, and become light in the St Louis metro area Tuesday
evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds across northern MO may advect
southeastward into STL late tonight with a brief period of MVFR
cigs possible. These clouds will shift east of STL by Tuesday
morning. W-nwly surface wind will weaken to around 8 kts late
tonight, then become light early Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     38  29  41  29 /   5   5  70  20
Quincy          35  27  37  23 /   5  10  60  10
Columbia        39  30  40  25 /   0  30  50   5
Jefferson City  40  30  42  27 /   0  20  50   5
Salem           37  27  39  30 /   5   0  60  20
Farmington      40  27  43  29 /   0   5  50  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250914
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Quiet weather is expected today and most of tonight. A sfc ridge
axis of high pressure will move across the region today. Went
fairly close to bias corrected MOS guidance which in general is will
slightly cooler than yesterday for high temperatures.

A return flow/south wind will set up with the ridge exiting off
to the east tonight. An approaching clipper low with a trailing sfc
front will move across the Dakotas into western IA/eastern KS/nw
MO by the end of this period (12z). Nighttime temperatures may drop off
quickly early tonight but will steady off or possibly rise a bit
late tonight with a south wind and increasing clouds. For the most
part, expect most (if not all) accumulating snow with the
approaching sfc low/front to remain off to the north through tonight,
but some may minor amounts/dusting sneak into the far northern
cwfa toward 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Overview: A gradual deamplification of the upper level pattern is
expected late in the week in the wake of the minor clipper
shortwave. In general expect temperatures to swing from colder
than normal to warmer than normal by Friday/Saturday. A split flow
pattern develops late in this period keeping the very cold air
over Canada bottled up to our north, but the southern edge of the
Canadian air mass is expected to reach the cwfa late Sunday into
Monday.

Wednesday: The clipper low and trailing sfc trough/front will
move quickly through MO on Wednesday. Used a blend of three hour MOS
temperatures with the coldest readings early in the day over the
northeast cwfa. Some very light snow accumulation will be possible
early in the day over parts of central and south central MO.
Impacts? Should be minor but some slick spots could briefly
develop over the northeast cwfa in the morning before temperatures
warm. Temperatures look to be a bit too warm farther to the
southwest toward KSGF to support any accumulation, but will watch
trends. The precip exits to the east quickly in the afternoon as
temperatures warm up well up into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday/Thanksgiving Holiday: Quiet with a Canadian ridge of
sfc high pressure moving through the area. It will be chilly, but
winds will be light.

Friday/Saturday: Warmer and breezy as south winds develop with
high pressure shifting to the south and east and low pressure
moving into the High Plains/lee of the Rockies. Some western areas
might touch 60 degrees for highs as early as Friday. With more of
a sw-ssw sfc wind expected Saturday, most areas will get into at
least the low 60s.

Sunday/Monday: The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement with
the southern fringes of a Canadian air mass trying to make a push
back to the south. By this time a distinct split in the mid level
flow is progged, with much colder air bottled up well to the
north. A frontal passage with a chance of (mostly) rain is
expected Sunday/Sunday night/early Monday, but the front isn`t
expected to make it too far to the south before a strong Canadian
high pressure centered to our north begins to retreat off to the
east late Monday. It looks to be colder Monday, but not overly so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday evening with
increasing high clouds late in the period. Winds will start off
light out of the west and will gradually shift around to the
south.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann








000
FXUS63 KEAX 250853
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will gradually
back with time and remain under 12kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250853
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will gradually
back with time and remain under 12kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250853
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will gradually
back with time and remain under 12kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250853
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Today through Wednesday: A quiet weather day is in store for the
area today. A relatively dry atmosphere will yield mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will remain cool today, with highs in the middle
30s to middle 40s. The axis of a positively-tilted longwave trough
will move across the CWA today, with the attention eventually turning
upstream to a well-defined clipper system moving towards the region.
Models continue to converge towards very similar solutions regarding
the timing and location of the clipper system. Model cross-sections
depict the best lift to arrive between 06-12Z Wed. While this
disturbance will be quick-moving, the vertical column should quickly
saturate upon strong low-level ascent in the H85-H65 layer. This lift
is located atop strong frontogenesis as the disturbance moves
through. The dynamics favor precipitation to develop and move across
portions of the area, although the duration of the highest
precipitation rates should be short-lived due to the fast-moving
nature of the system. The highest probabilities for precipitation
will remain generally east of I-29 and north of I-70, primarily
northeast of the Kansas City metro area. Another challenge is
forecasting the vertical temperature profile with regards to wintry
precipitation. While models agree to introduce ice into the column,
there is some concern in the lowest couple thousand feet AGL.
Following wet-bulb effects, there is some uncertainty of a small warm
layer that may exist, especially on the western and southern
outskirts of the precipitation region. Further northeast into north
central and northeast Missouri, slightly cooler air and higher
precipitation rates dynamically cooling the column should provide a
much higher probability for snowfall. In contrast, areas along I-29
and along/south of I-70 have a higher uncertainty of snow, with a
rain/snow mix possible. The end result will be the highest potential
for snowfall accumulations between midnight to noon Wednesday will
reside east of I-29, north of I-70 (NC/NE Missouri), where 0.5" to 1"
of snow may accumulate.

While the majority of precipitation will come to an end late
Wednesday morning, light precipitation may reform as the clipper
system departs. Models show a highly saturated layer in the lowest
4kft, with weak ascent centered near H85. Ice is introduced into
this saturated layer, so where wet-bulbing effects manage to cool the
small warm layer off the surface, some flurries, light snow, and/or
light rain will remain possible through Wednesday afternoon across
the CWA before precipitation ends by early evening.

Extended: Models during the the extended period have decent
consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move through
the region on Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
region. While Thanksgiving day will be chilly with highs in the upper
20s northeast to the lower 40s southwest CWA, dry weather will
prevail. On Friday, weak upper ridging across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS will provide a large and fairly aggressive warm air
advection regime over much of the Great Plains, spreading eastward.
For instance, H85 temperatures near Kansas City are still projected
to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period from Thursday evening to
Friday evening. With surface high pressure sliding off to the east,
southerly winds will return on Friday. The end result is a quick
warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations may sneak into the 60s Saturday
afternoon. Precipitation is not expected during this multi-day period
of warm weather, making for an optimal time for any outdoor
activities. A cold front will move through Saturday night, reaching
the I-44 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This will effectively knock
our temperatures back down, with highs Sunday in the middle 30s north
to near 50 south. Cold weather will persist into Monday, before the
front retreats northward bringing with it warmer air on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will gradually
back with time and remain under 12kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250545
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A weakening frontal boundary nearing the plateau will lose its
identity as the storm system that passed through the region last
night moves off into the Great Lakes and weak high pressure descends
into the Ozarks. At the same time the H5 trough will swing through
the region.  Clouds as a result will exit southwest to northeast
this evening. With upstream dew points in the middle teens to around
20 the degree by which surface winds weaken will be the main focus
in the short term. At this point anticipate readings to range about
10 degrees colder than last night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A northwest flow will continue over the region through the middle
of this week which will bring seasonably cool and dry weather to
the area. A clipper like system and moisture starved will move
across the northern half of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley
region. There will be a limited potential for a small and quick
moving band of light snow to move across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. This will occur late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Very little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. The best potential for a light dusting
of light snow will be near the Lake of the Ozarks region and
northward.

Below average temperatures and dry weather is in the forecast for
Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern begins
to flatten out and become more zonal for the end of the week and
weekend. Temperatures will become seasonable and even slightly
above average by the weekend with mild southerly winds. Saturday
looks very nice with highs in the lower 60s. Another front will
try to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday with bring
additional clouds...a few showers...and cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday evening with
increasing high clouds late in the period. Winds will start off
light out of the west and will gradually shift around to the
south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 250545
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A weakening frontal boundary nearing the plateau will lose its
identity as the storm system that passed through the region last
night moves off into the Great Lakes and weak high pressure descends
into the Ozarks. At the same time the H5 trough will swing through
the region.  Clouds as a result will exit southwest to northeast
this evening. With upstream dew points in the middle teens to around
20 the degree by which surface winds weaken will be the main focus
in the short term. At this point anticipate readings to range about
10 degrees colder than last night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A northwest flow will continue over the region through the middle
of this week which will bring seasonably cool and dry weather to
the area. A clipper like system and moisture starved will move
across the northern half of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley
region. There will be a limited potential for a small and quick
moving band of light snow to move across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. This will occur late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Very little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. The best potential for a light dusting
of light snow will be near the Lake of the Ozarks region and
northward.

Below average temperatures and dry weather is in the forecast for
Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern begins
to flatten out and become more zonal for the end of the week and
weekend. Temperatures will become seasonable and even slightly
above average by the weekend with mild southerly winds. Saturday
looks very nice with highs in the lower 60s. Another front will
try to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday with bring
additional clouds...a few showers...and cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday evening with
increasing high clouds late in the period. Winds will start off
light out of the west and will gradually shift around to the
south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 250532
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will gradually
back with time and remain under 12kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250532
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will gradually
back with time and remain under 12kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250532
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will gradually
back with time and remain under 12kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250532
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will gradually
back with time and remain under 12kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250508
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1108 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Focus thru the period will be temps with no precip anticipated.

System will continue to move newd thru the period with large area of
cloud cover advecting s into the region. Mdls are in somewhat good
agreement keeping at least the nrn half of the CWA cloudy overnight.
The remainder of the CWA is more uncertain with pockets within cloud
deck that may open after sunset. Cloud cover will have a big impact
on temps tonight. Strong winds are also expected to linger longer
than prev anticipated, but gusts shud diminish by mid evening.

Taking this into consideration, have trended temps tonight slightly
warmer than prev forecast.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Latest models runs indicate the clipper that will move across
the area on Wednesday will be slightly deeper than previous runs
with slightly more QPF.  Have increased PoPs, particularly on
Wednesday, when the NAM and GFS show swath of decent ascent moving
across the CWA during the morning hours.  Precipitation type should
be mainly snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before low
level  temperatures warm during the afternoon.  Should be enough
moisture with this clipper for some minor snow accumulations over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.  Then the system will
quickly move out of the area leaving Wednesday night and Thursday
dry.

Stayed close to reasonable MOS guidance for temperatures which will
be below normal through Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

GFS and ECMWF agree that upper pattern will be zonal through the
extended period with an upper trough approaching the area from the
west by next Monday.  Even with the current agreement with the upper
pattern and no big systems moving across the area, timing of weak
troughs can be difficult with zonal flow so there is some
uncertainty with this forecast. Then there is good agreement in both
models that a cold front will move southeast across the area on
Sunday night, though with zonal flow staying over the area the
coldest air will not move into the area. Both models are showing
some precipitation developing along this front over the area on
Sunday and Monday.  Still looks like low level flow will be
southwestly on Friday and Saturday with 850mb temperatures near +10C
on both models on Saturday.  This supports above normal temperatures
both days.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Low level clouds continue to rotate southeastward through
northeast MO and west central IL this evening, southwest of the
deep surface low just northeast of the Great Lakes region. These
clouds may remain just east northeast of COU late tonight, but
will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and may also move
through the St Louis metro area. There will be at least a brief
period of MVFR cloud heights in UIN, and also possibly in the St
Louis metro area as well. These low level clouds should completely
shift east of UIN and the St Louis metro area Tuesday morning.
W-nwly surface winds will weaken and lose the gustiness late
tonight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. The surface wind
will back around to a swly direction Tuesday afternoon at UIN and
COU as the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of these taf
sites, and become light in the St Louis metro area Tuesday
evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds across northern MO may advect
southeastward into STL late tonight with a brief period of MVFR
cigs possible. These clouds will shift east of STL by Tuesday
morning. W-nwly surface wind will weaken to around 8 kts late
tonight, then become light early Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     28  39  30  42 /   0   5   5  50
Quincy          22  35  25  38 /   5   5  10  60
Columbia        23  39  28  42 /   0   0  30  40
Jefferson City  24  40  27  43 /   0   0  20  30
Salem           27  37  25  41 /   5   5   0  50
Farmington      26  41  26  44 /   0   0   5  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250508
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1108 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Focus thru the period will be temps with no precip anticipated.

System will continue to move newd thru the period with large area of
cloud cover advecting s into the region. Mdls are in somewhat good
agreement keeping at least the nrn half of the CWA cloudy overnight.
The remainder of the CWA is more uncertain with pockets within cloud
deck that may open after sunset. Cloud cover will have a big impact
on temps tonight. Strong winds are also expected to linger longer
than prev anticipated, but gusts shud diminish by mid evening.

Taking this into consideration, have trended temps tonight slightly
warmer than prev forecast.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Latest models runs indicate the clipper that will move across
the area on Wednesday will be slightly deeper than previous runs
with slightly more QPF.  Have increased PoPs, particularly on
Wednesday, when the NAM and GFS show swath of decent ascent moving
across the CWA during the morning hours.  Precipitation type should
be mainly snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before low
level  temperatures warm during the afternoon.  Should be enough
moisture with this clipper for some minor snow accumulations over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.  Then the system will
quickly move out of the area leaving Wednesday night and Thursday
dry.

Stayed close to reasonable MOS guidance for temperatures which will
be below normal through Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

GFS and ECMWF agree that upper pattern will be zonal through the
extended period with an upper trough approaching the area from the
west by next Monday.  Even with the current agreement with the upper
pattern and no big systems moving across the area, timing of weak
troughs can be difficult with zonal flow so there is some
uncertainty with this forecast. Then there is good agreement in both
models that a cold front will move southeast across the area on
Sunday night, though with zonal flow staying over the area the
coldest air will not move into the area. Both models are showing
some precipitation developing along this front over the area on
Sunday and Monday.  Still looks like low level flow will be
southwestly on Friday and Saturday with 850mb temperatures near +10C
on both models on Saturday.  This supports above normal temperatures
both days.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Low level clouds continue to rotate southeastward through
northeast MO and west central IL this evening, southwest of the
deep surface low just northeast of the Great Lakes region. These
clouds may remain just east northeast of COU late tonight, but
will continue to drop southeastward through UIN and may also move
through the St Louis metro area. There will be at least a brief
period of MVFR cloud heights in UIN, and also possibly in the St
Louis metro area as well. These low level clouds should completely
shift east of UIN and the St Louis metro area Tuesday morning.
W-nwly surface winds will weaken and lose the gustiness late
tonight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. The surface wind
will back around to a swly direction Tuesday afternoon at UIN and
COU as the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of these taf
sites, and become light in the St Louis metro area Tuesday
evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds across northern MO may advect
southeastward into STL late tonight with a brief period of MVFR
cigs possible. These clouds will shift east of STL by Tuesday
morning. W-nwly surface wind will weaken to around 8 kts late
tonight, then become light early Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     28  39  30  42 /   0   5   5  50
Quincy          22  35  25  38 /   5   5  10  60
Columbia        23  39  28  42 /   0   0  30  40
Jefferson City  24  40  27  43 /   0   0  20  30
Salem           27  37  25  41 /   5   5   0  50
Farmington      26  41  26  44 /   0   0   5  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242351
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
551 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Focus thru the period will be temps with no precip anticipated.

System will continue to move newd thru the period with large area of
cloud cover advecting s into the region. Mdls are in somewhat good
agreement keeping at least the nrn half of the CWA cloudy overnight.
The remainder of the CWA is more uncertain with pockets within cloud
deck that may open after sunset. Cloud cover will have a big impact
on temps tonight. Strong winds are also expected to linger longer
than prev anticipated, but gusts shud diminish by mid evening.

Taking this into consideration, have trended temps tonight slightly
warmer than prev forecast.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Latest models runs indicate the clipper that will move across
the area on Wednesday will be slightly deeper than previous runs
with slightly more QPF.  Have increased PoPs, particularly on
Wednesday, when the NAM and GFS show swath of decent ascent moving
across the CWA during the morning hours.  Precipitation type should
be mainly snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before low
level  temperatures warm during the afternoon.  Should be enough
moisture with this clipper for some minor snow accumulations over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.  Then the system will
quickly move out of the area leaving Wednesday night and Thursday
dry.

Stayed close to reasonable MOS guidance for temperatures which will
be below normal through Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

GFS and ECMWF agree that upper pattern will be zonal through the
extended period with an upper trough approaching the area from the
west by next Monday.  Even with the current agreement with the upper
pattern and no big systems moving across the area, timing of weak
troughs can be difficult with zonal flow so there is some
uncertainty with this forecast. Then there is good agreement in both
models that a cold front will move southeast across the area on
Sunday night, though with zonal flow staying over the area the
coldest air will not move into the area. Both models are showing
some precipitation developing along this front over the area on
Sunday and Monday.  Still looks like low level flow will be
southwestly on Friday and Saturday with 850mb temperatures near +10C
on both models on Saturday.  This supports above normal temperatures
both days.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 458 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Low-mid level clouds continue to rotate southeastward through the
taf sites early this evening, southwest of the deep surface low
just northeast of the Great Lakes region. These clouds should
shift east of COU later this evening, but may continue to drop
southeastward through UIN and the St Louis metro area into the
overnight hours. The MVFR cloud heights will likely remain further
north in UIN, with cloud heights of 3500-6000 feet further south
at the other taf sites. These low-mid level clouds should
completely shift east of UIN and the St Louis metro area early
Tuesday morning. W-nwly surface winds should gradually weaken and
lose the gustiness through the night as the surface pressure
gradient relaxes. The surface wind wil back around to a swly
direction Tuesday afternoon at UIN and COU as the surface ridge
axis shfits southeast of these taf sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Low-mid level, VFR cloud ceilings will
continue in STL this evening, then scatter out by late tonight.
W-nwly surface wind will weaken to around 8 kts late tonight, then
become light early Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     28  39  30  42 /   5   5   5  50
Quincy          22  35  25  38 /  10   5  10  60
Columbia        23  39  28  42 /   5   0  30  40
Jefferson City  24  40  27  43 /   5   0  20  30
Salem           27  37  25  41 /  10   5   0  50
Farmington      26  41  26  44 /   5   0   5  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conds will prevail through the TAF period with just a few high
clouds expected through 22Z when sct mid-lvl clouds around 7-9kft
will move into the terminals. Otrw...winds will remain out of the NW
at 5-10kts through late tomorrow morning when they will back to the
SW. Winds will then further back to south tomorrow night around 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conds will prevail through the TAF period with just a few high
clouds expected through 22Z when sct mid-lvl clouds around 7-9kft
will move into the terminals. Otrw...winds will remain out of the NW
at 5-10kts through late tomorrow morning when they will back to the
SW. Winds will then further back to south tomorrow night around 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conds will prevail through the TAF period with just a few high
clouds expected through 22Z when sct mid-lvl clouds around 7-9kft
will move into the terminals. Otrw...winds will remain out of the NW
at 5-10kts through late tomorrow morning when they will back to the
SW. Winds will then further back to south tomorrow night around 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conds will prevail through the TAF period with just a few high
clouds expected through 22Z when sct mid-lvl clouds around 7-9kft
will move into the terminals. Otrw...winds will remain out of the NW
at 5-10kts through late tomorrow morning when they will back to the
SW. Winds will then further back to south tomorrow night around 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 242300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A weakening frontal boundary nearing the plateau will lose its
identity as the storm system that passed through the region last
night moves off into the Great Lakes and weak high pressure descends
into the Ozarks. At the same time the H5 trough will swing through
the region.  Clouds as a result will exit southwest to northeast
this evening. With upstream dew points in the middle teens to around
20 the degree by which surface winds weaken will be the main focus
in the short term. At this point anticipate readings to range about
10 degrees colder than last night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A northwest flow will continue over the region through the middle
of this week which will bring seasonably cool and dry weather to
the area. A clipper like system and moisture starved will move
across the northern half of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley
region. There will be a limited potential for a small and quick
moving band of light snow to move across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. This will occur late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Very little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. The best potential for a light dusting
of light snow will be near the Lake of the Ozarks region and
northward.

Below average temperatures and dry weather is in the forecast for
Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern begins
to flatten out and become more zonal for the end of the week and
weekend. Temperatures will become seasonable and even slightly
above average by the weekend with mild southerly winds. Saturday
looks very nice with highs in the lower 60s. Another front will
try to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday with bring
additional clouds...a few showers...and cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 457 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR conditions and mainly clear skies will persist through
Tuesday. Winds will be light out of the west and will gradually
back to the southwest Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KEAX 242136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
336 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Stratus deck currently spiraling down from the north will keep
MCI, MKC, and STJ OVC for much of the afternoon, teetering right
on the VFR/MVFR threshold for ceilings. Once this clears from the
west, VFR conditions will prevail at all four TAF sites overnight.
For Tuesday, additional cloud cover is expected in the mid-levels
ahead of the next approaching system.

NW winds will remain gusty this afternoon, lightening up after
sunset tonight. However, W to NW winds will continue to prevail
throughout this TAF period, currently not looking to drop much
below around 10 knots or so.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
336 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Copious cloud cover currently exists over much of northern/central
MO with mostly clear skies in the southern third of the forecast
area. These clouds will eventually push off toward the east, exiting
overnight and leaving partly cloudy skies through early tomorrow.
However, mostly cloudy skies will populate overhead once more by
tomorrow evening out ahead of a quick-hitting low pressure system
that will be diving down from the Dakotas. Surface low with plenty
of support aloft as upper trough axis and vort max rotates through,
along with decent low- to mid-level moisture, and temperatures
supportive of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, all come
together for snow to develop and fall overnight Tuesday. Will need
to monitor surface temperatures as some current guidance has lows
hovering right around the freezing mark, particularly in the
vicinity of the KS/MO border. North-central MO shouldn`t have an
issue seeing snow falling as models are hitting that area the
"hardest" in terms of pulling together all of the necessary
ingredients. That said, this does not appear to be a significantly
impactful system, especially given how fast it`s expected to move
through. Snow accumulations look to be highest in north-central MO
with totals of around an inch or so, not looking to exceed much
more than about an inch and a half. Elsewhere, less than an inch
is expected; and little to no accumulations in the southern third
of the forecast area. As temperatures climb into the mid 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday, snow will become less likely throughout the
day in central MO, pushing out of the rest of the area by late
Wednesday.

Behind this low, high pressure will build into the region for the
latter half of the week, then mosey off toward the east by the
weekend. General model consensus keeps us dry through the long-term
period, although will continue to see how whether or not precip will
fall with a frontal boundary looking to push through over the
weekend. With the exception of Friday and Saturday, temperatures
will likely remain near or slightly below normal for this time of
year, generally ranging from the 30s to 40s for highs and 20s to
lower 30s for lows. For those two aforementioned days, highs look to
reach the 50s as WAA sets up, thanks to southerly flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Stratus deck currently spiraling down from the north will keep
MCI, MKC, and STJ OVC for much of the afternoon, teetering right
on the VFR/MVFR threshold for ceilings. Once this clears from the
west, VFR conditions will prevail at all four TAF sites overnight.
For Tuesday, additional cloud cover is expected in the mid-levels
ahead of the next approaching system.

NW winds will remain gusty this afternoon, lightening up after
sunset tonight. However, W to NW winds will continue to prevail
throughout this TAF period, currently not looking to drop much
below around 10 knots or so.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg








000
FXUS63 KLSX 242108
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
308 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Focus thru the period will be temps with no precip anticipated.

System will continue to move newd thru the period with large area of
cloud cover advecting s into the region. Mdls are in somewhat good
agreement keeping at least the nrn half of the CWA cloudy overnight.
The remainder of the CWA is more uncertain with pockets within cloud
deck that may open after sunset. Cloud cover will have a big impact
on temps tonight. Strong winds are also expected to linger longer
than prev anticipated, but gusts shud diminish by mid evening.

Taking this into consideration, have trended temps tonight slightly
warmer than prev forecast.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Latest models runs indicate the clipper that will move across
the area on Wednesday will be slightly deeper than previous runs
with slightly more QPF.  Have increased PoPs, particularly on
Wednesday, when the NAM and GFS show swath of decent ascent moving
across the CWA during the morning hours.  Precipitation type should
be mainly snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before low
level  temperatures warm during the afternoon.  Should be enough
moisture with this clipper for some minor snow accumulations over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.  Then the system will
quickly move out of the area leaving Wednesday night and Thursday
dry.

Stayed close to reasonable MOS guidance for temperatures which will
be below normal through Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

GFS and ECMWF agree that upper pattern will be zonal through the
extended period with an upper trough approaching the area from the
west by next Monday.  Even with the current agreement with the upper
pattern and no big systems moving across the area, timing of weak
troughs can be difficult with zonal flow so there is some
uncertainty with this forecast. Then there is good agreement in both
models that a cold front will move southeast across the area on
Sunday night, though with zonal flow staying over the area the
coldest air will not move into the area. Both models are showing
some precipitation developing along this front over the area on
Sunday and Monday.  Still looks like low level flow will be
southwestly on Friday and Saturday with 850mb temperatures near +10C
on both models on Saturday.  This supports above normal temperatures
both days.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Cigs will continue to hover near 3 kft thru the afternoon.
Confidence is higher that UIN will remain aob 3 kft thru the
afternoon. Cigs shud actually lower tonight at UIN, but confidence
is low that cigs will fall below 2 kft. Winds will be slow to
diminish this evening, but will eventually do so.

Specifics for KSTL: Cigs will remain near 3 kft thru the
afternoon, but are expected to rise and remain VFR late this
afternoon and overnight. Gusty winds will be slow to diminish this
eve.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     28  39  30  42 /   5   5   5  50
Quincy          22  35  25  38 /  10   5  20  60
Columbia        23  39  28  42 /   5   0  30  40
Jefferson City  24  40  27  43 /   5   0  20  30
Salem           27  37  25  41 /  10   5   0  50
Farmington      26  41  26  44 /   5   0   5  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242108
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
308 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Focus thru the period will be temps with no precip anticipated.

System will continue to move newd thru the period with large area of
cloud cover advecting s into the region. Mdls are in somewhat good
agreement keeping at least the nrn half of the CWA cloudy overnight.
The remainder of the CWA is more uncertain with pockets within cloud
deck that may open after sunset. Cloud cover will have a big impact
on temps tonight. Strong winds are also expected to linger longer
than prev anticipated, but gusts shud diminish by mid evening.

Taking this into consideration, have trended temps tonight slightly
warmer than prev forecast.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

Latest models runs indicate the clipper that will move across
the area on Wednesday will be slightly deeper than previous runs
with slightly more QPF.  Have increased PoPs, particularly on
Wednesday, when the NAM and GFS show swath of decent ascent moving
across the CWA during the morning hours.  Precipitation type should
be mainly snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before low
level  temperatures warm during the afternoon.  Should be enough
moisture with this clipper for some minor snow accumulations over
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.  Then the system will
quickly move out of the area leaving Wednesday night and Thursday
dry.

Stayed close to reasonable MOS guidance for temperatures which will
be below normal through Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

GFS and ECMWF agree that upper pattern will be zonal through the
extended period with an upper trough approaching the area from the
west by next Monday.  Even with the current agreement with the upper
pattern and no big systems moving across the area, timing of weak
troughs can be difficult with zonal flow so there is some
uncertainty with this forecast. Then there is good agreement in both
models that a cold front will move southeast across the area on
Sunday night, though with zonal flow staying over the area the
coldest air will not move into the area. Both models are showing
some precipitation developing along this front over the area on
Sunday and Monday.  Still looks like low level flow will be
southwestly on Friday and Saturday with 850mb temperatures near +10C
on both models on Saturday.  This supports above normal temperatures
both days.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Cigs will continue to hover near 3 kft thru the afternoon.
Confidence is higher that UIN will remain aob 3 kft thru the
afternoon. Cigs shud actually lower tonight at UIN, but confidence
is low that cigs will fall below 2 kft. Winds will be slow to
diminish this evening, but will eventually do so.

Specifics for KSTL: Cigs will remain near 3 kft thru the
afternoon, but are expected to rise and remain VFR late this
afternoon and overnight. Gusty winds will be slow to diminish this
eve.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     28  39  30  42 /   5   5   5  50
Quincy          22  35  25  38 /  10   5  20  60
Columbia        23  39  28  42 /   5   0  30  40
Jefferson City  24  40  27  43 /   5   0  20  30
Salem           27  37  25  41 /  10   5   0  50
Farmington      26  41  26  44 /   5   0   5  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 242052
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A weakening frontal boundary nearing the plateau will lose its
identity as the storm system that passed through the region last
night moves off into the Great Lakes and weak high pressure descends
into the Ozarks. At the same time the H5 trough will swing through
the region.  Clouds as a result will exit southwest to northeast
this evening. With upstream dew points in the middle teens to around
20 the degree by which surface winds weaken will be the main focus
in the short term. At this point anticipate readings to range about
10 degrees colder than last night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A northwest flow will continue over the region through the middle
of this week which will bring seasonably cool and dry weather to
the area. A clipper like system and moisture starved will move
across the northern half of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley
region. There will be a limited potential for a small and quick
moving band of light snow to move across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. This will occur late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Very little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. The best potential for a light dusting
of light snow will be near the Lake of the Ozarks region and
northward.

Below average temperatures and dry weather is in the forecast for
Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern begins
to flatten out and become more zonal for the end of the week and
weekend. Temperatures will become seasonable and even slightly
above average by the weekend with mild southerly winds. Saturday
looks very nice with highs in the lower 60s. Another front will
try to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday with bring
additional clouds...a few showers...and cooler weather.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.

Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Terry







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242052
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A weakening frontal boundary nearing the plateau will lose its
identity as the storm system that passed through the region last
night moves off into the Great Lakes and weak high pressure descends
into the Ozarks. At the same time the H5 trough will swing through
the region.  Clouds as a result will exit southwest to northeast
this evening. With upstream dew points in the middle teens to around
20 the degree by which surface winds weaken will be the main focus
in the short term. At this point anticipate readings to range about
10 degrees colder than last night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A northwest flow will continue over the region through the middle
of this week which will bring seasonably cool and dry weather to
the area. A clipper like system and moisture starved will move
across the northern half of Missouri into the Ohio River Valley
region. There will be a limited potential for a small and quick
moving band of light snow to move across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. This will occur late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Very little to no accumulation
is expected at this time. The best potential for a light dusting
of light snow will be near the Lake of the Ozarks region and
northward.

Below average temperatures and dry weather is in the forecast for
Thanksgiving with mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern begins
to flatten out and become more zonal for the end of the week and
weekend. Temperatures will become seasonable and even slightly
above average by the weekend with mild southerly winds. Saturday
looks very nice with highs in the lower 60s. Another front will
try to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday with bring
additional clouds...a few showers...and cooler weather.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.

Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Terry






000
FXUS63 KLSX 242011
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
211 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Focus thru the period will be temps with no precip anticipated.

System will continue to move newd thru the period with large area of
cloud cover advecting s into the region. Mdls are in somewhat good
agreement keeping at least the nrn half of the CWA cloudy overnight.
The remainder of the CWA is more uncertain with pockets within cloud
deck that may open after sunset. Cloud cover will have a big impact
on temps tonight. Strong winds are also expected to linger longer
than prev anticipated, but gusts shud diminish by mid evening.

Taking this into consideration, have trended temps tonight slightly
warmer than prev forecast.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.

Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Cigs will continue to hover near 3 kft thru the afternoon.
Confidence is higher that UIN will remain aob 3 kft thru the
afternoon. Cigs shud actually lower tonight at UIN, but confidence
is low that cigs will fall below 2 kft. Winds will be slow to
diminish this evening, but will eventually do so.

Specifics for KSTL: Cigs will remain near 3 kft thru the
afternoon, but are expected to rise and remain VFR late this
afternoon and overnight. Gusty winds will be slow to diminish this
eve.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     28  39  31  42 /   5   5   5  50
Quincy          22  35  26  38 /  10   5  20  60
Columbia        23  39  29  42 /   5   0  30  40
Jefferson City  24  40  28  43 /   5   0  20  30
Salem           27  37  26  41 /  10   5   0  50
Farmington      26  41  27  44 /   5   0   5  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Precip is in the process of winding down fairly quickly over the CWA
early this morning. As it does, colder air working into the back
edge of the rain has changed the precip over to snow as far east
as a UIN-Louisiana line as of 3 am, but it appears that freezing
level is staying just high enough from COU to STL that the
changeover is struggling to occur along the I70 corridor.

Could see some very minor accumulations in the UIN area by daybreak,
but based on radar trends over the past several hours measurable
precip may be negligible after 12z. Certainly by mid morning any
precip will be quite light, and limited to the northern half of the
CWA where CAA and low level cyclonic circulation may be enough to
generate a few spits of snow.

Cold front is just now reaching our far SE counties, and the intense
CAA in its wake will be causing a bit temp drop early this morning
before readings level off this afternoon.  Elsewhere where the cold
air has already arrived, looking for a minimal rebound in temps due
to the clouds and strong cold air advection.  Best chance for any
significant warming should be limited to our far s counties where
there could be a bit of sunshine.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.

Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Cigs will continue to hover near 3 kft thru the afternoon.
Confidence is higher that UIN will remain aob 3 kft thru the
afternoon. Cigs shud actually lower tonight at UIN, but confidence
is low that cigs will fall below 2 kft. Winds will be slow to
diminish this evening, but will eventually do so.

Specifics for KSTL: Cigs will remain near 3 kft thru the
afternoon, but are expected to rise and remain VFR late this
afternoon and overnight. Gusty winds will be slow to diminish this
eve.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Precip is in the process of winding down fairly quickly over the CWA
early this morning. As it does, colder air working into the back
edge of the rain has changed the precip over to snow as far east
as a UIN-Louisiana line as of 3 am, but it appears that freezing
level is staying just high enough from COU to STL that the
changeover is struggling to occur along the I70 corridor.

Could see some very minor accumulations in the UIN area by daybreak,
but based on radar trends over the past several hours measurable
precip may be negligible after 12z. Certainly by mid morning any
precip will be quite light, and limited to the northern half of the
CWA where CAA and low level cyclonic circulation may be enough to
generate a few spits of snow.

Cold front is just now reaching our far SE counties, and the intense
CAA in its wake will be causing a bit temp drop early this morning
before readings level off this afternoon.  Elsewhere where the cold
air has already arrived, looking for a minimal rebound in temps due
to the clouds and strong cold air advection.  Best chance for any
significant warming should be limited to our far s counties where
there could be a bit of sunshine.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.

Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Cigs will continue to hover near 3 kft thru the afternoon.
Confidence is higher that UIN will remain aob 3 kft thru the
afternoon. Cigs shud actually lower tonight at UIN, but confidence
is low that cigs will fall below 2 kft. Winds will be slow to
diminish this evening, but will eventually do so.

Specifics for KSTL: Cigs will remain near 3 kft thru the
afternoon, but are expected to rise and remain VFR late this
afternoon and overnight. Gusty winds will be slow to diminish this
eve.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Precip is in the process of winding down fairly quickly over the CWA
early this morning. As it does, colder air working into the back
edge of the rain has changed the precip over to snow as far east
as a UIN-Louisiana line as of 3 am, but it appears that freezing
level is staying just high enough from COU to STL that the
changeover is struggling to occur along the I70 corridor.

Could see some very minor accumulations in the UIN area by daybreak,
but based on radar trends over the past several hours measurable
precip may be negligible after 12z. Certainly by mid morning any
precip will be quite light, and limited to the northern half of the
CWA where CAA and low level cyclonic circulation may be enough to
generate a few spits of snow.

Cold front is just now reaching our far SE counties, and the intense
CAA in its wake will be causing a bit temp drop early this morning
before readings level off this afternoon.  Elsewhere where the cold
air has already arrived, looking for a minimal rebound in temps due
to the clouds and strong cold air advection.  Best chance for any
significant warming should be limited to our far s counties where
there could be a bit of sunshine.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.

Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Cigs will continue to hover near 3 kft thru the afternoon.
Confidence is higher that UIN will remain aob 3 kft thru the
afternoon. Cigs shud actually lower tonight at UIN, but confidence
is low that cigs will fall below 2 kft. Winds will be slow to
diminish this evening, but will eventually do so.

Specifics for KSTL: Cigs will remain near 3 kft thru the
afternoon, but are expected to rise and remain VFR late this
afternoon and overnight. Gusty winds will be slow to diminish this
eve.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Precip is in the process of winding down fairly quickly over the CWA
early this morning. As it does, colder air working into the back
edge of the rain has changed the precip over to snow as far east
as a UIN-Louisiana line as of 3 am, but it appears that freezing
level is staying just high enough from COU to STL that the
changeover is struggling to occur along the I70 corridor.

Could see some very minor accumulations in the UIN area by daybreak,
but based on radar trends over the past several hours measurable
precip may be negligible after 12z. Certainly by mid morning any
precip will be quite light, and limited to the northern half of the
CWA where CAA and low level cyclonic circulation may be enough to
generate a few spits of snow.

Cold front is just now reaching our far SE counties, and the intense
CAA in its wake will be causing a bit temp drop early this morning
before readings level off this afternoon.  Elsewhere where the cold
air has already arrived, looking for a minimal rebound in temps due
to the clouds and strong cold air advection.  Best chance for any
significant warming should be limited to our far s counties where
there could be a bit of sunshine.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.

Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Cigs will continue to hover near 3 kft thru the afternoon.
Confidence is higher that UIN will remain aob 3 kft thru the
afternoon. Cigs shud actually lower tonight at UIN, but confidence
is low that cigs will fall below 2 kft. Winds will be slow to
diminish this evening, but will eventually do so.

Specifics for KSTL: Cigs will remain near 3 kft thru the
afternoon, but are expected to rise and remain VFR late this
afternoon and overnight. Gusty winds will be slow to diminish this
eve.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241740
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1140 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Now: As of early this morning, the last of the precipitation had
shifted into northeast and east central Missouri. Cold air advection
sufficiently cooled the lower atmosphere to allow the precipitation
on the backside to changeover to light snow. With precipitation
rates lowering with time, do not anticipate any issues with the
remaining couple hours of light snow activity out east.

Today/Tonight: For the remainder of today and tonight, colder air
will continue to work its way into the region. Upstream observations
show a steady stream of stratus moving into the area, and model
cross sections suggest the low clouds will remain over the CWA
through much of the daylight hours. With the continued cold air
advection and clouds, high temperatures will struggle to reach the
middle 30s to middle 40s today. In addition, northwest winds will
continue to be gusty, with speeds in excess of 25 mph common, making
for a relatively raw day. As the upper low departs and drier air
advects in, cloud cover should gradually thin and clear from west to
east by late this afternoon or early evening. This will setup a
decent radiational cooling environment, and lows tonight are
expected to fall into the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: The primary midweek interest is a clipper system
diving southeast from Alberta into eastern Missouri. While models
differ in the exact timing, the overall placement and associated
impacts show good consistency, slightly increasing forecast
confidence. The highest precipitation chances currently exist east
of I-29 and north of I-70, late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Vertical temperature profiles suggest snow as the dominant
precipitation type. Therefore, light snowfall accumulations on the
order of one-half inch or less is forecast for portions of north
central and northeast Missouri. Precipitation should come to an end
by Wednesday afternoon. Subsequent forecasts will refine timing and
snowfall amount details. Temperatures during this period will
continue below normal as the longwave trough axis remains centered
over the region.

Extended: Models during the extended period have come into a little
better consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move
through the region on Thursday. While Thanksgiving day will be
chilly, no precipitation is expected. On Friday, weak upper ridging
across the western two-thirds of the CONUS will yield a large and
fairly aggressive warm air advection regime over much of the Great
Plains, spreading eastward. For instance, H85 temperatures near
Kansas City are expected to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period
from Thursday evening to Friday evening. With surface high pressure
sliding off to the east, southerly winds will return on Friday. The
end result is a quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon
temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Precipitation is not
expected during this brief window of warm weather, making for an
optimal time for any outdoor activities. A cold front will move
through Saturday night, knocking temperatures back down to normal to
below normal levels for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Stratus deck currently spiraling down from the north will keep
MCI, MKC, and STJ OVC for much of the afternoon, teetering right
on the VFR/MVFR threshold for ceilings. Once this clears from the
west, VFR conditions will prevail at all four TAF sites overnight.
For Tuesday, additional cloud cover is expected in the mid-levels
ahead of the next approaching system.

NW winds will remain gusty this afternoon, lightening up after
sunset tonight. However, W to NW winds will continue to prevail
throughout this TAF period, currently not looking to drop much
below around 10 knots or so.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241740
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1140 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Now: As of early this morning, the last of the precipitation had
shifted into northeast and east central Missouri. Cold air advection
sufficiently cooled the lower atmosphere to allow the precipitation
on the backside to changeover to light snow. With precipitation
rates lowering with time, do not anticipate any issues with the
remaining couple hours of light snow activity out east.

Today/Tonight: For the remainder of today and tonight, colder air
will continue to work its way into the region. Upstream observations
show a steady stream of stratus moving into the area, and model
cross sections suggest the low clouds will remain over the CWA
through much of the daylight hours. With the continued cold air
advection and clouds, high temperatures will struggle to reach the
middle 30s to middle 40s today. In addition, northwest winds will
continue to be gusty, with speeds in excess of 25 mph common, making
for a relatively raw day. As the upper low departs and drier air
advects in, cloud cover should gradually thin and clear from west to
east by late this afternoon or early evening. This will setup a
decent radiational cooling environment, and lows tonight are
expected to fall into the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: The primary midweek interest is a clipper system
diving southeast from Alberta into eastern Missouri. While models
differ in the exact timing, the overall placement and associated
impacts show good consistency, slightly increasing forecast
confidence. The highest precipitation chances currently exist east
of I-29 and north of I-70, late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Vertical temperature profiles suggest snow as the dominant
precipitation type. Therefore, light snowfall accumulations on the
order of one-half inch or less is forecast for portions of north
central and northeast Missouri. Precipitation should come to an end
by Wednesday afternoon. Subsequent forecasts will refine timing and
snowfall amount details. Temperatures during this period will
continue below normal as the longwave trough axis remains centered
over the region.

Extended: Models during the extended period have come into a little
better consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move
through the region on Thursday. While Thanksgiving day will be
chilly, no precipitation is expected. On Friday, weak upper ridging
across the western two-thirds of the CONUS will yield a large and
fairly aggressive warm air advection regime over much of the Great
Plains, spreading eastward. For instance, H85 temperatures near
Kansas City are expected to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period
from Thursday evening to Friday evening. With surface high pressure
sliding off to the east, southerly winds will return on Friday. The
end result is a quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon
temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Precipitation is not
expected during this brief window of warm weather, making for an
optimal time for any outdoor activities. A cold front will move
through Saturday night, knocking temperatures back down to normal to
below normal levels for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Stratus deck currently spiraling down from the north will keep
MCI, MKC, and STJ OVC for much of the afternoon, teetering right
on the VFR/MVFR threshold for ceilings. Once this clears from the
west, VFR conditions will prevail at all four TAF sites overnight.
For Tuesday, additional cloud cover is expected in the mid-levels
ahead of the next approaching system.

NW winds will remain gusty this afternoon, lightening up after
sunset tonight. However, W to NW winds will continue to prevail
throughout this TAF period, currently not looking to drop much
below around 10 knots or so.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...lg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Northwest winds will be a little breezy today, with gusts up to 30
mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.

Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Northwest winds will be a little breezy today, with gusts up to 30
mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.

Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Northwest winds will be a little breezy today, with gusts up to 30
mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.

Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Northwest winds will be a little breezy today, with gusts up to 30
mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.

Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KLSX 241157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
557 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Precip is in the process of winding down fairly quickly over the CWA
early this morning. As it does, colder air working into the back
edge of the rain has changed the precip over to snow as far east
as a UIN-Louisiana line as of 3 am, but it appears that freezing
level is staying just high enough from COU to STL that the
changeover is struggling to occur along the I70 corridor.

Could see some very minor accumulations in the UIN area by daybreak,
but based on radar trends over the past several hours measurable
precip may be negligible after 12z. Certainly by mid morning any
precip will be quite light, and limited to the northern half of the
CWA where CAA and low level cyclonic circulation may be enough to
generate a few spits of snow.

Cold front is just now reaching our far SE counties, and the intense
CAA in its wake will be causing a bit temp drop early this morning
before readings level off this afternoon.  Elsewhere where the cold
air has already arrived, looking for a minimal rebound in temps due
to the clouds and strong cold air advection.  Best chance for any
significant warming should be limited to our far s counties where
there could be a bit of sunshine.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.

Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Precip has now moved east of all TAF sites in our CWA, and any
additional precip today should be limited to some spotty pockets
of light snow that form with the strongest CAA and cyclonic
curvature in the UIN area.   Primary concern for this forecast
cycle is low cloud trends and strong west winds in the wake of
last nights cold front. Upstream cloud trends suggest MVFR cigs
from 2-3kft will advect into the area this morning, and with the
cyclonic curvature and cold air aloft believe these cigs will
likely hold in most areas until late this afternoon and into the
evening, when cigs will lift into the 3-4kft range and then slowly
break up from south to north. Strong pressure gradient and deep
mixing should mean wind gusts around 30kts for most areas through
mid afternoon, and it`s certainly possible that occasionally
higher gusts will occur. However, a rapid decrease in speeds is
expected as we head towards sunset.

Specifics for KSTL: Current cigs around 1500 ft agl should lift
into the 2-3kft range by mid morning, with this cloud deck finally
scattering out by mid-late afternoon. West winds should continue
to gust to around 30kts through mid afternoon thanks to the
strong pressure gradient and deep mixing, but expect a rapid
decrease in wind speeds in the 22-01z time frame.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241142
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.

Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over the Great Lakes
will continue to move northeast. Gusty west winds will continue
with a bit of an uptick in gusts with some daytime heating/mixing.
Winds will diminish toward sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes
and the lower atmosphere/boundary layer decouples. Some
stratocumulus may affect the area during the day (16z-23z) with
the best chances for ceilings at KSGF, but will keep tafs vfr with
no ceilings for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241142
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.

Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over the Great Lakes
will continue to move northeast. Gusty west winds will continue
with a bit of an uptick in gusts with some daytime heating/mixing.
Winds will diminish toward sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes
and the lower atmosphere/boundary layer decouples. Some
stratocumulus may affect the area during the day (16z-23z) with
the best chances for ceilings at KSGF, but will keep tafs vfr with
no ceilings for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Now: As of early this morning, the last of the precipitation had
shifted into northeast and east central Missouri. Cold air advection
sufficiently cooled the lower atmosphere to allow the precipitation
on the backside to changeover to light snow. With precipitation
rates lowering with time, do not anticipate any issues with the
remaining couple hours of light snow activity out east.

Today/Tonight: For the remainder of today and tonight, colder air
will continue to work its way into the region. Upstream observations
show a steady stream of stratus moving into the area, and model
cross sections suggest the low clouds will remain over the CWA
through much of the daylight hours. With the continued cold air
advection and clouds, high temperatures will struggle to reach the
middle 30s to middle 40s today. In addition, northwest winds will
continue to be gusty, with speeds in excess of 25 mph common, making
for a relatively raw day. As the upper low departs and drier air
advects in, cloud cover should gradually thin and clear from west to
east by late this afternoon or early evening. This will setup a
decent radiational cooling environment, and lows tonight are
expected to fall into the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: The primary midweek interest is a clipper system
diving southeast from Alberta into eastern Missouri. While models
differ in the exact timing, the overall placement and associated
impacts show good consistency, slightly increasing forecast
confidence. The highest precipitation chances currently exist east
of I-29 and north of I-70, late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Vertical temperature profiles suggest snow as the dominant
precipitation type. Therefore, light snowfall accumulations on the
order of one-half inch or less is forecast for portions of north
central and northeast Missouri. Precipitation should come to an end
by Wednesday afternoon. Subsequent forecasts will refine timing and
snowfall amount details. Temperatures during this period will
continue below normal as the longwave trough axis remains centered
over the region.

Extended: Models during the extended period have come into a little
better consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move
through the region on Thursday. While Thanksgiving day will be
chilly, no precipitation is expected. On Friday, weak upper ridging
across the western two-thirds of the CONUS will yield a large and
fairly aggressive warm air advection regime over much of the Great
Plains, spreading eastward. For instance, H85 temperatures near
Kansas City are expected to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period
from Thursday evening to Friday evening. With surface high pressure
sliding off to the east, southerly winds will return on Friday. The
end result is a quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon
temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Precipitation is not
expected during this brief window of warm weather, making for an
optimal time for any outdoor activities. A cold front will move
through Saturday night, knocking temperatures back down to normal to
below normal levels for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR low stratus has overspread terminals with a few pockets of MVFR
mixed in. Back edge of stratus is currently straddling all terminals.
Believe this should remain in place or fill in westward during the
morning. Best shot at MVFR conditions should be at STJ and MCI before
midday, and this should be temporary in nature. Eventually, ceilings
will clear by late this afternoon or early evening. Strong northwest
winds will remain, with gusts in excess of 25kts at times.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241008
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
408 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Precip is in the process of winding down fairly quickly over the CWA
early this morning. As it does, colder air working into the back
edge of the rain has changed the precip over to snow as far east
as a UIN-Louisiana line as of 3 am, but it appears that freezing
level is staying just high enough from COU to STL that the
changeover is struggling to occur along the I70 corridor.

Could see some very minor accumulations in the UIN area by daybreak,
but based on radar trends over the past several hours measurable
precip may be negligible after 12z. Certainly by mid morning any
precip will be quite light, and limited to the northern half of the
CWA where CAA and low level cyclonic circulation may be enough to
generate a few spits of snow.

Cold front is just now reaching our far SE counties, and the intense
CAA in its wake will be causing a bit temp drop early this morning
before readings level off this afternoon.  Elsewhere where the cold
air has already arrived, looking for a minimal rebound in temps due
to the clouds and strong cold air advection.  Best chance for any
significant warming should be limited to our far s counties where
there could be a bit of sunshine.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.

Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

A cold front had already moved through KCOU and KUIN but had not
yet reached the St. Louis metro area TAF sites as of 05z. Expect a
marked wind shift at KSUS/KCPS when fropa occurs between 06-08z.
An area of rain was also moving northeastwards towards the TAF
sites and had already reached KCOU at TAF issuance. Rain will
persist for several more hours then taper off. The rain could
briefly mix with snow at KCOU and KUIN just as the precipitation
is ending, but upstream METARs show that the post-frontal air
mass is warmer than previously anticipated, thus accumulating
snowfall looks less likely than it did during the previous TAF
cycle. Instability snow showers are possible during the afternoon.
Winds should start to taper off once the pressure gradient relaxes
by the late afternoon or early evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect a marked wind shift between 06-07z when
a cold front moves through the terminal. Rain will persist for
several more hours then taper off. Instability snow showers are
possible during the afternoon. This TAF is optimistic in that it
depicts a return to VFR cigs by late afternoon/early evening.

Kanofsky
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241008
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
408 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Precip is in the process of winding down fairly quickly over the CWA
early this morning. As it does, colder air working into the back
edge of the rain has changed the precip over to snow as far east
as a UIN-Louisiana line as of 3 am, but it appears that freezing
level is staying just high enough from COU to STL that the
changeover is struggling to occur along the I70 corridor.

Could see some very minor accumulations in the UIN area by daybreak,
but based on radar trends over the past several hours measurable
precip may be negligible after 12z. Certainly by mid morning any
precip will be quite light, and limited to the northern half of the
CWA where CAA and low level cyclonic circulation may be enough to
generate a few spits of snow.

Cold front is just now reaching our far SE counties, and the intense
CAA in its wake will be causing a bit temp drop early this morning
before readings level off this afternoon.  Elsewhere where the cold
air has already arrived, looking for a minimal rebound in temps due
to the clouds and strong cold air advection.  Best chance for any
significant warming should be limited to our far s counties where
there could be a bit of sunshine.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.

Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

A cold front had already moved through KCOU and KUIN but had not
yet reached the St. Louis metro area TAF sites as of 05z. Expect a
marked wind shift at KSUS/KCPS when fropa occurs between 06-08z.
An area of rain was also moving northeastwards towards the TAF
sites and had already reached KCOU at TAF issuance. Rain will
persist for several more hours then taper off. The rain could
briefly mix with snow at KCOU and KUIN just as the precipitation
is ending, but upstream METARs show that the post-frontal air
mass is warmer than previously anticipated, thus accumulating
snowfall looks less likely than it did during the previous TAF
cycle. Instability snow showers are possible during the afternoon.
Winds should start to taper off once the pressure gradient relaxes
by the late afternoon or early evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect a marked wind shift between 06-07z when
a cold front moves through the terminal. Rain will persist for
several more hours then taper off. Instability snow showers are
possible during the afternoon. This TAF is optimistic in that it
depicts a return to VFR cigs by late afternoon/early evening.

Kanofsky
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241008
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
408 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Precip is in the process of winding down fairly quickly over the CWA
early this morning. As it does, colder air working into the back
edge of the rain has changed the precip over to snow as far east
as a UIN-Louisiana line as of 3 am, but it appears that freezing
level is staying just high enough from COU to STL that the
changeover is struggling to occur along the I70 corridor.

Could see some very minor accumulations in the UIN area by daybreak,
but based on radar trends over the past several hours measurable
precip may be negligible after 12z. Certainly by mid morning any
precip will be quite light, and limited to the northern half of the
CWA where CAA and low level cyclonic circulation may be enough to
generate a few spits of snow.

Cold front is just now reaching our far SE counties, and the intense
CAA in its wake will be causing a bit temp drop early this morning
before readings level off this afternoon.  Elsewhere where the cold
air has already arrived, looking for a minimal rebound in temps due
to the clouds and strong cold air advection.  Best chance for any
significant warming should be limited to our far s counties where
there could be a bit of sunshine.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.

Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

A cold front had already moved through KCOU and KUIN but had not
yet reached the St. Louis metro area TAF sites as of 05z. Expect a
marked wind shift at KSUS/KCPS when fropa occurs between 06-08z.
An area of rain was also moving northeastwards towards the TAF
sites and had already reached KCOU at TAF issuance. Rain will
persist for several more hours then taper off. The rain could
briefly mix with snow at KCOU and KUIN just as the precipitation
is ending, but upstream METARs show that the post-frontal air
mass is warmer than previously anticipated, thus accumulating
snowfall looks less likely than it did during the previous TAF
cycle. Instability snow showers are possible during the afternoon.
Winds should start to taper off once the pressure gradient relaxes
by the late afternoon or early evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect a marked wind shift between 06-07z when
a cold front moves through the terminal. Rain will persist for
several more hours then taper off. Instability snow showers are
possible during the afternoon. This TAF is optimistic in that it
depicts a return to VFR cigs by late afternoon/early evening.

Kanofsky
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241008
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
408 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Precip is in the process of winding down fairly quickly over the CWA
early this morning. As it does, colder air working into the back
edge of the rain has changed the precip over to snow as far east
as a UIN-Louisiana line as of 3 am, but it appears that freezing
level is staying just high enough from COU to STL that the
changeover is struggling to occur along the I70 corridor.

Could see some very minor accumulations in the UIN area by daybreak,
but based on radar trends over the past several hours measurable
precip may be negligible after 12z. Certainly by mid morning any
precip will be quite light, and limited to the northern half of the
CWA where CAA and low level cyclonic circulation may be enough to
generate a few spits of snow.

Cold front is just now reaching our far SE counties, and the intense
CAA in its wake will be causing a bit temp drop early this morning
before readings level off this afternoon.  Elsewhere where the cold
air has already arrived, looking for a minimal rebound in temps due
to the clouds and strong cold air advection.  Best chance for any
significant warming should be limited to our far s counties where
there could be a bit of sunshine.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

System to exit region with weak surface ridge building in tonight.
Low temps will be in the low to mid 20s. Then on Tuesday ahead of
next weather system, will see southwest to west winds, but
temperatures to stay below normal in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night, clipper system to slide southeast towards forecast
area. So will see an increase in cloud cover as well as low level
moisture. Surface low to track just west of Mississippi river on
Wednesday. So highest pops will be over eastern sections of forecast
area. Precipitation to initially start off as light snow, then as
temperatures warm up during the day on Wednesday, the snow will
become mixed with light rain and change over to mostly rain before
coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid to upper 20s while highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
30s to upper 40s.

Extended models coming into better agreement with surface ridge
building in for Thanksgiving. So will see dry and colder weather on
Thursday before warming back up for the weekend ahead of next
system. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Still
some timing differences on frontal boundary that will slide through
late this weekend. GFS is faster with front moving through during
the day on Saturday while the ECMWF has front sliding through
Saturday night. Moisture is limited with this system, so feel that
front to move through dry despite GFS showing some light qpf. Highs
by Saturday will be near normal in the 50s, before dropping off into
the 40s on Sunday behind this system.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

A cold front had already moved through KCOU and KUIN but had not
yet reached the St. Louis metro area TAF sites as of 05z. Expect a
marked wind shift at KSUS/KCPS when fropa occurs between 06-08z.
An area of rain was also moving northeastwards towards the TAF
sites and had already reached KCOU at TAF issuance. Rain will
persist for several more hours then taper off. The rain could
briefly mix with snow at KCOU and KUIN just as the precipitation
is ending, but upstream METARs show that the post-frontal air
mass is warmer than previously anticipated, thus accumulating
snowfall looks less likely than it did during the previous TAF
cycle. Instability snow showers are possible during the afternoon.
Winds should start to taper off once the pressure gradient relaxes
by the late afternoon or early evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect a marked wind shift between 06-07z when
a cold front moves through the terminal. Rain will persist for
several more hours then taper off. Instability snow showers are
possible during the afternoon. This TAF is optimistic in that it
depicts a return to VFR cigs by late afternoon/early evening.

Kanofsky
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240835
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.

Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240835
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.

Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240835
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.

Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240835
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.

Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.

Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.

Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.

Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.

Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.

Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
231 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Now: As of early this morning, the last of the precipitation had
shifted into northeast and east central Missouri. Cold air advection
sufficiently cooled the lower atmosphere to allow the precipitation
on the backside to changeover to light snow. With precipitation
rates lowering with time, do not anticipate any issues with the
remaining couple hours of light snow activity out east.

Today/Tonight: For the remainder of today and tonight, colder air
will continue to work its way into the region. Upstream observations
show a steady stream of stratus moving into the area, and model
cross sections suggest the low clouds will remain over the CWA
through much of the daylight hours. With the continued cold air
advection and clouds, high temperatures will struggle to reach the
middle 30s to middle 40s today. In addition, northwest winds will
continue to be gusty, with speeds in excess of 25 mph common, making
for a relatively raw day. As the upper low departs and drier air
advects in, cloud cover should gradually thin and clear from west to
east by late this afternoon or early evening. This will setup a
decent radiational cooling environment, and lows tonight are
expected to fall into the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: The primary midweek interest is a clipper system
diving southeast from Alberta into eastern Missouri. While models
differ in the exact timing, the overall placement and associated
impacts show good consistency, slightly increasing forecast
confidence. The highest precipitation chances currently exist east
of I-29 and north of I-70, late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Vertical temperature profiles suggest snow as the dominant
precipitation type. Therefore, light snowfall accumulations on the
order of one-half inch or less is forecast for portions of north
central and northeast Missouri. Precipitation should come to an end
by Wednesday afternoon. Subsequent forecasts will refine timing and
snowfall amount details. Temperatures during this period will
continue below normal as the longwave trough axis remains centered
over the region.

Extended: Models during the extended period have come into a little
better consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move
through the region on Thursday. While Thanksgiving day will be
chilly, no precipitation is expected. On Friday, weak upper ridging
across the western two-thirds of the CONUS will yield a large and
fairly aggressive warm air advection regime over much of the Great
Plains, spreading eastward. For instance, H85 temperatures near
Kansas City are expected to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period
from Thursday evening to Friday evening. With surface high pressure
sliding off to the east, southerly winds will return on Friday. The
end result is a quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon
temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Precipitation is not
expected during this brief window of warm weather, making for an
optimal time for any outdoor activities. A cold front will move
through Saturday night, knocking temperatures back down to normal to
below normal levels for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield will exit northeast and central MO by pre-
dawn hours of Monday morning. Could see a rain/snow mix or brief
change over to snow over far northeast MO but little if any accumulation.

Otherwise, main concern will be from gusty northwesterly winds. Tight
pressure gradient will gradually weaken from west to east on Monday
but boundary layer mixing could see winds ramp up higher during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. VFR cigs at all four
terminals but MVFR cigs possible Monday across northern MO. Also
can`t rule out widely scattered flurries over northern MO. Will see
winds diminish from west to east early Monday evening with clearing
from west to east.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
231 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Now: As of early this morning, the last of the precipitation had
shifted into northeast and east central Missouri. Cold air advection
sufficiently cooled the lower atmosphere to allow the precipitation
on the backside to changeover to light snow. With precipitation
rates lowering with time, do not anticipate any issues with the
remaining couple hours of light snow activity out east.

Today/Tonight: For the remainder of today and tonight, colder air
will continue to work its way into the region. Upstream observations
show a steady stream of stratus moving into the area, and model
cross sections suggest the low clouds will remain over the CWA
through much of the daylight hours. With the continued cold air
advection and clouds, high temperatures will struggle to reach the
middle 30s to middle 40s today. In addition, northwest winds will
continue to be gusty, with speeds in excess of 25 mph common, making
for a relatively raw day. As the upper low departs and drier air
advects in, cloud cover should gradually thin and clear from west to
east by late this afternoon or early evening. This will setup a
decent radiational cooling environment, and lows tonight are
expected to fall into the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday/Wednesday: The primary midweek interest is a clipper system
diving southeast from Alberta into eastern Missouri. While models
differ in the exact timing, the overall placement and associated
impacts show good consistency, slightly increasing forecast
confidence. The highest precipitation chances currently exist east
of I-29 and north of I-70, late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Vertical temperature profiles suggest snow as the dominant
precipitation type. Therefore, light snowfall accumulations on the
order of one-half inch or less is forecast for portions of north
central and northeast Missouri. Precipitation should come to an end
by Wednesday afternoon. Subsequent forecasts will refine timing and
snowfall amount details. Temperatures during this period will
continue below normal as the longwave trough axis remains centered
over the region.

Extended: Models during the extended period have come into a little
better consensus. One final shot of cold air is projected to move
through the region on Thursday. While Thanksgiving day will be
chilly, no precipitation is expected. On Friday, weak upper ridging
across the western two-thirds of the CONUS will yield a large and
fairly aggressive warm air advection regime over much of the Great
Plains, spreading eastward. For instance, H85 temperatures near
Kansas City are expected to increase by 12C during a 24-hour period
from Thursday evening to Friday evening. With surface high pressure
sliding off to the east, southerly winds will return on Friday. The
end result is a quick warmup Friday into Saturday, with afternoon
temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Precipitation is not
expected during this brief window of warm weather, making for an
optimal time for any outdoor activities. A cold front will move
through Saturday night, knocking temperatures back down to normal to
below normal levels for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield will exit northeast and central MO by pre-
dawn hours of Monday morning. Could see a rain/snow mix or brief
change over to snow over far northeast MO but little if any accumulation.

Otherwise, main concern will be from gusty northwesterly winds. Tight
pressure gradient will gradually weaken from west to east on Monday
but boundary layer mixing could see winds ramp up higher during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. VFR cigs at all four
terminals but MVFR cigs possible Monday across northern MO. Also
can`t rule out widely scattered flurries over northern MO. Will see
winds diminish from west to east early Monday evening with clearing
from west to east.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240535
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield has accelerated eastward over the past hour
in line with the 00Z NAM and latest HRRR output. Will end the rain
faster from west to east. In addition, will limit any mention of snow
to the n central and northeastern counties where temperatures in the
upper 30s are advecting southeast out of central/south central IA.
Will leave in mention of minor snow accumulations for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield will exit northeast and central MO by pre-
dawn hours of Monday morning. Could see a rain/snow mix or brief
change over to snow over far northeast MO but little if any accumulation.

Otherwise, main concern will be from gusty northwesterly winds. Tight
pressure gradient will gradually weaken from west to east on Monday
but boundary layer mixing could see winds ramp up higher during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. VFR cigs at all four
terminals but MVFR cigs possible Monday across northern MO. Also
can`t rule out widely scattered flurries over northern MO. Will see
winds diminish from west to east early Monday evening with clearing
from west to east.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240535
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield has accelerated eastward over the past hour
in line with the 00Z NAM and latest HRRR output. Will end the rain
faster from west to east. In addition, will limit any mention of snow
to the n central and northeastern counties where temperatures in the
upper 30s are advecting southeast out of central/south central IA.
Will leave in mention of minor snow accumulations for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield will exit northeast and central MO by pre-
dawn hours of Monday morning. Could see a rain/snow mix or brief
change over to snow over far northeast MO but little if any accumulation.

Otherwise, main concern will be from gusty northwesterly winds. Tight
pressure gradient will gradually weaken from west to east on Monday
but boundary layer mixing could see winds ramp up higher during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. VFR cigs at all four
terminals but MVFR cigs possible Monday across northern MO. Also
can`t rule out widely scattered flurries over northern MO. Will see
winds diminish from west to east early Monday evening with clearing
from west to east.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240531
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are
warm in the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow
mix will be along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip
exits the area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on
grassy areas along and north of Highway 54 across central
Missouri. But again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 240531
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are
warm in the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow
mix will be along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip
exits the area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on
grassy areas along and north of Highway 54 across central
Missouri. But again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 240531
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are
warm in the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow
mix will be along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip
exits the area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on
grassy areas along and north of Highway 54 across central
Missouri. But again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 240531
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are
warm in the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow
mix will be along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip
exits the area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on
grassy areas along and north of Highway 54 across central
Missouri. But again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A low pressure system will continue to move out of the region
overnight. Light rain will therefore slowly end from west to east
across southern Missouri overnight. Weather models and upstream
observations indicate a quicker improvement to flight categories
versus previous forecasts. MVFR with localized areas of IFR will
prevail early on, but VFR is expected by late tonight. VFR is then
expected to persist through Monday evening with a period of late
morning and afternoon strato-cumulus clouds. Brisk and gusty
northwest to west winds will continue through Monday before
quickly diminishing by sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 240531
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 938 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Updated the PoPs for the overnight. Sped up the timing slightly and
increased coverage to the south over the next several hrs to account
for the precip lifting out of SW MO. Limited thunder potential for a
just a few hrs this evng across the ern Ozarks. Timing on the front
still looks good with winds increasing significantly after FROPA. Not
sold on accumulating snow late tonight into early tomorrow morning due
to lack of cold enough air being advected into the area to cool the
bndry layer enough to switch over to all snow...let alone cold enough
for accums. Think that by the time cold enough air makes it into the
area the precip will be moving out. Plus...2 inch soil temps are in
the 40s across NE MO and W cntrl IL. Have not pulled the accums but
wouldn`t be surprised if there wasn`t any either.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

A cold front had already moved through KCOU and KUIN but had not
yet reached the St. Louis metro area TAF sites as of 05z. Expect a
marked wind shift at KSUS/KCPS when fropa occurs between 06-08z.
An area of rain was also moving northeastwards towards the TAF
sites and had already reached KCOU at TAF issuance. Rain will
persist for several more hours then taper off. The rain could
briefly mix with snow at KCOU and KUIN just as the precipitation
is ending, but upstream METARs show that the post-frontal air
mass is warmer than previously anticipated, thus accumulating
snowfall looks less likely than it did during the previous TAF
cycle. Instability snow showers are possible during the afternoon.
Winds should start to taper off once the pressure gradient relaxes
by the late afternoon or early evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect a marked wind shift between 06-07z when
a cold front moves through the terminal. Rain will persist for
several more hours then taper off. Instability snow showers are
possible during the afternoon. This TAF is optimistic in that it
depicts a return to VFR cigs by late afternoon/early evening.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240531
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 938 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Updated the PoPs for the overnight. Sped up the timing slightly and
increased coverage to the south over the next several hrs to account
for the precip lifting out of SW MO. Limited thunder potential for a
just a few hrs this evng across the ern Ozarks. Timing on the front
still looks good with winds increasing significantly after FROPA. Not
sold on accumulating snow late tonight into early tomorrow morning due
to lack of cold enough air being advected into the area to cool the
bndry layer enough to switch over to all snow...let alone cold enough
for accums. Think that by the time cold enough air makes it into the
area the precip will be moving out. Plus...2 inch soil temps are in
the 40s across NE MO and W cntrl IL. Have not pulled the accums but
wouldn`t be surprised if there wasn`t any either.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

A cold front had already moved through KCOU and KUIN but had not
yet reached the St. Louis metro area TAF sites as of 05z. Expect a
marked wind shift at KSUS/KCPS when fropa occurs between 06-08z.
An area of rain was also moving northeastwards towards the TAF
sites and had already reached KCOU at TAF issuance. Rain will
persist for several more hours then taper off. The rain could
briefly mix with snow at KCOU and KUIN just as the precipitation
is ending, but upstream METARs show that the post-frontal air
mass is warmer than previously anticipated, thus accumulating
snowfall looks less likely than it did during the previous TAF
cycle. Instability snow showers are possible during the afternoon.
Winds should start to taper off once the pressure gradient relaxes
by the late afternoon or early evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect a marked wind shift between 06-07z when
a cold front moves through the terminal. Rain will persist for
several more hours then taper off. Instability snow showers are
possible during the afternoon. This TAF is optimistic in that it
depicts a return to VFR cigs by late afternoon/early evening.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240347
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
947 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 938 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Updated the PoPs for the overnight. Sped up the timing slightly and
increased coverage to the south over the next several hrs to account
for the precip lifting out of SW MO. Limited thunder potential for a
just a few hrs this evng across the ern Ozarks. Timing on the front
still looks good with winds increasing significantly after FROPA. Not
sold on accumulating snow late tonight into early tomorrow morning due
to lack of cold enough air being advected into the area to cool the
bndry layer enough to switch over to all snow...let alone cold enough
for accums. Think that by the time cold enough air makes it into the
area the precip will be moving out. Plus...2 inch soil temps are in
the 40s across NE MO and W cntrl IL. Have not pulled the accums but
wouldn`t be surprised if there wasn`t any either.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. Continual new development of RA/DZ across central and
northern MO makes it less likely to see a substantial break in the
precip at KCOU and KUIN compared to farther south and east.
Conditions should remain IFR for the near future. The next area of
precipitation to affect KCOU and KUIN was associated with an
approaching cold front. The rain is expected to mix with and
change over to snow with minor accumulations possible (one-quarter
to one-half of an inch or less) between 08-13z. A significant wind
shift will accompany the front. Winds will become west to
northwest and increase to around 20 kts sustained with gusts of
30-35 kts. It is possible that instability snow showers may
develop tomorrow afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. This
possibility will be re-examined for the 06z issuance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. It looks like the ongoing RA/DZ will diminish over the
next few hours (vsbys should increase at least briefly), but cigs
will probably remain IFR due to the substantial low level moisture
in place. The next area of rain to affect the metro area TAF sites
is associated with an approaching cold front. It is possible that
some of the rain may mix with snow as precipitation is ending, but
confidence is too low to introduce RASN at metro area TAF sites
yet. A significant change in winds will accompany the front
between 10-14z. Winds will become west to northwest and increase
to around 15-25 kts sustained with gusts of 30-35 kts. Finally, it
is possible that instability snow showers may develop tomorrow
afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAF attm.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240347
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
947 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 938 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Updated the PoPs for the overnight. Sped up the timing slightly and
increased coverage to the south over the next several hrs to account
for the precip lifting out of SW MO. Limited thunder potential for a
just a few hrs this evng across the ern Ozarks. Timing on the front
still looks good with winds increasing significantly after FROPA. Not
sold on accumulating snow late tonight into early tomorrow morning due
to lack of cold enough air being advected into the area to cool the
bndry layer enough to switch over to all snow...let alone cold enough
for accums. Think that by the time cold enough air makes it into the
area the precip will be moving out. Plus...2 inch soil temps are in
the 40s across NE MO and W cntrl IL. Have not pulled the accums but
wouldn`t be surprised if there wasn`t any either.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. Continual new development of RA/DZ across central and
northern MO makes it less likely to see a substantial break in the
precip at KCOU and KUIN compared to farther south and east.
Conditions should remain IFR for the near future. The next area of
precipitation to affect KCOU and KUIN was associated with an
approaching cold front. The rain is expected to mix with and
change over to snow with minor accumulations possible (one-quarter
to one-half of an inch or less) between 08-13z. A significant wind
shift will accompany the front. Winds will become west to
northwest and increase to around 20 kts sustained with gusts of
30-35 kts. It is possible that instability snow showers may
develop tomorrow afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. This
possibility will be re-examined for the 06z issuance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. It looks like the ongoing RA/DZ will diminish over the
next few hours (vsbys should increase at least briefly), but cigs
will probably remain IFR due to the substantial low level moisture
in place. The next area of rain to affect the metro area TAF sites
is associated with an approaching cold front. It is possible that
some of the rain may mix with snow as precipitation is ending, but
confidence is too low to introduce RASN at metro area TAF sites
yet. A significant change in winds will accompany the front
between 10-14z. Winds will become west to northwest and increase
to around 15-25 kts sustained with gusts of 30-35 kts. Finally, it
is possible that instability snow showers may develop tomorrow
afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAF attm.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240347
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
947 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 938 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Updated the PoPs for the overnight. Sped up the timing slightly and
increased coverage to the south over the next several hrs to account
for the precip lifting out of SW MO. Limited thunder potential for a
just a few hrs this evng across the ern Ozarks. Timing on the front
still looks good with winds increasing significantly after FROPA. Not
sold on accumulating snow late tonight into early tomorrow morning due
to lack of cold enough air being advected into the area to cool the
bndry layer enough to switch over to all snow...let alone cold enough
for accums. Think that by the time cold enough air makes it into the
area the precip will be moving out. Plus...2 inch soil temps are in
the 40s across NE MO and W cntrl IL. Have not pulled the accums but
wouldn`t be surprised if there wasn`t any either.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. Continual new development of RA/DZ across central and
northern MO makes it less likely to see a substantial break in the
precip at KCOU and KUIN compared to farther south and east.
Conditions should remain IFR for the near future. The next area of
precipitation to affect KCOU and KUIN was associated with an
approaching cold front. The rain is expected to mix with and
change over to snow with minor accumulations possible (one-quarter
to one-half of an inch or less) between 08-13z. A significant wind
shift will accompany the front. Winds will become west to
northwest and increase to around 20 kts sustained with gusts of
30-35 kts. It is possible that instability snow showers may
develop tomorrow afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. This
possibility will be re-examined for the 06z issuance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. It looks like the ongoing RA/DZ will diminish over the
next few hours (vsbys should increase at least briefly), but cigs
will probably remain IFR due to the substantial low level moisture
in place. The next area of rain to affect the metro area TAF sites
is associated with an approaching cold front. It is possible that
some of the rain may mix with snow as precipitation is ending, but
confidence is too low to introduce RASN at metro area TAF sites
yet. A significant change in winds will accompany the front
between 10-14z. Winds will become west to northwest and increase
to around 15-25 kts sustained with gusts of 30-35 kts. Finally, it
is possible that instability snow showers may develop tomorrow
afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAF attm.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240347
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
947 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 938 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Updated the PoPs for the overnight. Sped up the timing slightly and
increased coverage to the south over the next several hrs to account
for the precip lifting out of SW MO. Limited thunder potential for a
just a few hrs this evng across the ern Ozarks. Timing on the front
still looks good with winds increasing significantly after FROPA. Not
sold on accumulating snow late tonight into early tomorrow morning due
to lack of cold enough air being advected into the area to cool the
bndry layer enough to switch over to all snow...let alone cold enough
for accums. Think that by the time cold enough air makes it into the
area the precip will be moving out. Plus...2 inch soil temps are in
the 40s across NE MO and W cntrl IL. Have not pulled the accums but
wouldn`t be surprised if there wasn`t any either.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. Continual new development of RA/DZ across central and
northern MO makes it less likely to see a substantial break in the
precip at KCOU and KUIN compared to farther south and east.
Conditions should remain IFR for the near future. The next area of
precipitation to affect KCOU and KUIN was associated with an
approaching cold front. The rain is expected to mix with and
change over to snow with minor accumulations possible (one-quarter
to one-half of an inch or less) between 08-13z. A significant wind
shift will accompany the front. Winds will become west to
northwest and increase to around 20 kts sustained with gusts of
30-35 kts. It is possible that instability snow showers may
develop tomorrow afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. This
possibility will be re-examined for the 06z issuance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. It looks like the ongoing RA/DZ will diminish over the
next few hours (vsbys should increase at least briefly), but cigs
will probably remain IFR due to the substantial low level moisture
in place. The next area of rain to affect the metro area TAF sites
is associated with an approaching cold front. It is possible that
some of the rain may mix with snow as precipitation is ending, but
confidence is too low to introduce RASN at metro area TAF sites
yet. A significant change in winds will accompany the front
between 10-14z. Winds will become west to northwest and increase
to around 15-25 kts sustained with gusts of 30-35 kts. Finally, it
is possible that instability snow showers may develop tomorrow
afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAF attm.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240347
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
947 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 938 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Updated the PoPs for the overnight. Sped up the timing slightly and
increased coverage to the south over the next several hrs to account
for the precip lifting out of SW MO. Limited thunder potential for a
just a few hrs this evng across the ern Ozarks. Timing on the front
still looks good with winds increasing significantly after FROPA. Not
sold on accumulating snow late tonight into early tomorrow morning due
to lack of cold enough air being advected into the area to cool the
bndry layer enough to switch over to all snow...let alone cold enough
for accums. Think that by the time cold enough air makes it into the
area the precip will be moving out. Plus...2 inch soil temps are in
the 40s across NE MO and W cntrl IL. Have not pulled the accums but
wouldn`t be surprised if there wasn`t any either.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. Continual new development of RA/DZ across central and
northern MO makes it less likely to see a substantial break in the
precip at KCOU and KUIN compared to farther south and east.
Conditions should remain IFR for the near future. The next area of
precipitation to affect KCOU and KUIN was associated with an
approaching cold front. The rain is expected to mix with and
change over to snow with minor accumulations possible (one-quarter
to one-half of an inch or less) between 08-13z. A significant wind
shift will accompany the front. Winds will become west to
northwest and increase to around 20 kts sustained with gusts of
30-35 kts. It is possible that instability snow showers may
develop tomorrow afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. This
possibility will be re-examined for the 06z issuance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. It looks like the ongoing RA/DZ will diminish over the
next few hours (vsbys should increase at least briefly), but cigs
will probably remain IFR due to the substantial low level moisture
in place. The next area of rain to affect the metro area TAF sites
is associated with an approaching cold front. It is possible that
some of the rain may mix with snow as precipitation is ending, but
confidence is too low to introduce RASN at metro area TAF sites
yet. A significant change in winds will accompany the front
between 10-14z. Winds will become west to northwest and increase
to around 15-25 kts sustained with gusts of 30-35 kts. Finally, it
is possible that instability snow showers may develop tomorrow
afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAF attm.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240347
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
947 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 938 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Updated the PoPs for the overnight. Sped up the timing slightly and
increased coverage to the south over the next several hrs to account
for the precip lifting out of SW MO. Limited thunder potential for a
just a few hrs this evng across the ern Ozarks. Timing on the front
still looks good with winds increasing significantly after FROPA. Not
sold on accumulating snow late tonight into early tomorrow morning due
to lack of cold enough air being advected into the area to cool the
bndry layer enough to switch over to all snow...let alone cold enough
for accums. Think that by the time cold enough air makes it into the
area the precip will be moving out. Plus...2 inch soil temps are in
the 40s across NE MO and W cntrl IL. Have not pulled the accums but
wouldn`t be surprised if there wasn`t any either.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Main concern for tonight will be will there be any snow accumulation
over northwestern parts of the area as rain changes to snow behind a
sharp cold front. Most of the CWA has seen rain today and the
current band which is being forced by strong moisture convergence
and strong ascent ahead of ejecting shortwave trough will move
northeast of the CWA this evening. This will cause a lull in the
precipitation this evening before a second area currently over the
Plains moves into the area later this evening and overnight. This
area is being frontogenetically forced ahead of a second trough
currently over the northern Plains. Attendant cold front that
currently extends across central Iowa into far northwest Missouri
into eastern Kansas will push eastward this evening, reaching St.
Louis by midnight and east of the CWA by 3 am. Forecast soundings
suggest that the rain will mix with and then changeover to snow
after midnight before the frontogenetical band lifts out between
midnight and 6 am. Current indications are that snowfall amounts
will be less than 1 inch along and north of a Shelbina to Quincy
line given the relatively warm soil temperatures (Novelty Missouri
Mesonet 2 inch soil temperature is currently 50 degrees) and the
relative short amount of time that the accumulating snow will
fall. It will be windy late tonight into tomorrow as decent
gradient winds set up behind the cold front. However it does not
appear that we will hit advisory criteria at this time.

Do not expect much clearing tomorrow as forecast soundings show some
minimal CAPE in the lowest levels tomorrow afternoon suggesting some
isolated snow or rain showers will develop in the low level cyclonic
flow. Highs tomorrow are only a few degrees warmer than lows tonight.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

(Monday night through Wednesday)

Next notable trough that will move through the area will be on
Wednesday which the ECMWF and GFS both show light QPF across the
CWA. Have increased PoPs a bit across the area, with the highest
amounts over the northern CWA where current track of the surface
low will be. Temperatures will stay below normal during the period.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Overall confidence in forecast during this period is not high as the
both operational GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles have had continuity
issues the past few days with the timing and strength of the troughs
that will move across the area later this week. Latest runs are showing
quasi-zonal flow during the period with shortwave troughs moving quickly
across the area. While the GFS is developing some QPF over the region
on Saturday, this is different than yesterday`s run, so will discount
for now. Will go dry during this period given the inherent difficulties
in timing precipitation in zonal flow.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. Continual new development of RA/DZ across central and
northern MO makes it less likely to see a substantial break in the
precip at KCOU and KUIN compared to farther south and east.
Conditions should remain IFR for the near future. The next area of
precipitation to affect KCOU and KUIN was associated with an
approaching cold front. The rain is expected to mix with and
change over to snow with minor accumulations possible (one-quarter
to one-half of an inch or less) between 08-13z. A significant wind
shift will accompany the front. Winds will become west to
northwest and increase to around 20 kts sustained with gusts of
30-35 kts. It is possible that instability snow showers may
develop tomorrow afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. This
possibility will be re-examined for the 06z issuance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Several issues to discuss for the 00z
TAF cycle. It looks like the ongoing RA/DZ will diminish over the
next few hours (vsbys should increase at least briefly), but cigs
will probably remain IFR due to the substantial low level moisture
in place. The next area of rain to affect the metro area TAF sites
is associated with an approaching cold front. It is possible that
some of the rain may mix with snow as precipitation is ending, but
confidence is too low to introduce RASN at metro area TAF sites
yet. A significant change in winds will accompany the front
between 10-14z. Winds will become west to northwest and increase
to around 15-25 kts sustained with gusts of 30-35 kts. Finally, it
is possible that instability snow showers may develop tomorrow
afternoon due to the very cold air aloft, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAF attm.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240346
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
946 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield has accelerated eastward over the past hour
in line with the 00Z NAM and latest HRRR output. Will end the rain
faster from west to east. In addition, will limit any mention of snow
to the n central and northeastern counties where temperatures in the
upper 30s are advecting southeast out of central/south central IA.
Will leave in mention of minor snow accumulations for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front has made its way through the terminals area with increased
precipitation occurring along and behind the boundary. Will see
gradually improving ceilings as drier air filters in behind the
front. Gusty NW winds look to stay in place through the forecast
period. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix overnight though will
remain short-lived with no significant accumulation expected due to
warm surface temperatures. Once the precipitation clears out low-
level scattered layer will remain in place through the forecast
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240346
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
946 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield has accelerated eastward over the past hour
in line with the 00Z NAM and latest HRRR output. Will end the rain
faster from west to east. In addition, will limit any mention of snow
to the n central and northeastern counties where temperatures in the
upper 30s are advecting southeast out of central/south central IA.
Will leave in mention of minor snow accumulations for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front has made its way through the terminals area with increased
precipitation occurring along and behind the boundary. Will see
gradually improving ceilings as drier air filters in behind the
front. Gusty NW winds look to stay in place through the forecast
period. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix overnight though will
remain short-lived with no significant accumulation expected due to
warm surface temperatures. Once the precipitation clears out low-
level scattered layer will remain in place through the forecast
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240346
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
946 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield has accelerated eastward over the past hour
in line with the 00Z NAM and latest HRRR output. Will end the rain
faster from west to east. In addition, will limit any mention of snow
to the n central and northeastern counties where temperatures in the
upper 30s are advecting southeast out of central/south central IA.
Will leave in mention of minor snow accumulations for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front has made its way through the terminals area with increased
precipitation occurring along and behind the boundary. Will see
gradually improving ceilings as drier air filters in behind the
front. Gusty NW winds look to stay in place through the forecast
period. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix overnight though will
remain short-lived with no significant accumulation expected due to
warm surface temperatures. Once the precipitation clears out low-
level scattered layer will remain in place through the forecast
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240346
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
946 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield has accelerated eastward over the past hour
in line with the 00Z NAM and latest HRRR output. Will end the rain
faster from west to east. In addition, will limit any mention of snow
to the n central and northeastern counties where temperatures in the
upper 30s are advecting southeast out of central/south central IA.
Will leave in mention of minor snow accumulations for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front has made its way through the terminals area with increased
precipitation occurring along and behind the boundary. Will see
gradually improving ceilings as drier air filters in behind the
front. Gusty NW winds look to stay in place through the forecast
period. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix overnight though will
remain short-lived with no significant accumulation expected due to
warm surface temperatures. Once the precipitation clears out low-
level scattered layer will remain in place through the forecast
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240346
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
946 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield has accelerated eastward over the past hour
in line with the 00Z NAM and latest HRRR output. Will end the rain
faster from west to east. In addition, will limit any mention of snow
to the n central and northeastern counties where temperatures in the
upper 30s are advecting southeast out of central/south central IA.
Will leave in mention of minor snow accumulations for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front has made its way through the terminals area with increased
precipitation occurring along and behind the boundary. Will see
gradually improving ceilings as drier air filters in behind the
front. Gusty NW winds look to stay in place through the forecast
period. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix overnight though will
remain short-lived with no significant accumulation expected due to
warm surface temperatures. Once the precipitation clears out low-
level scattered layer will remain in place through the forecast
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240346
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
946 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Back edge of rain shield has accelerated eastward over the past hour
in line with the 00Z NAM and latest HRRR output. Will end the rain
faster from west to east. In addition, will limit any mention of snow
to the n central and northeastern counties where temperatures in the
upper 30s are advecting southeast out of central/south central IA.
Will leave in mention of minor snow accumulations for these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Rain showers will continue to fill in this afternoon and evening,
impacting the forecast area along and ahead of a southeastward-
moving cold front. Rainfall totals for this evening should be mainly
less than a half of an inch in most locations.

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for rain changing
over to snow overnight as a cold front pushes through the area and a
band of post-frontal precipitation pushes eastward over the falling
temperatures. Soundings begin to support snow in our far northwest
around 03z to 06z, but initially the surface warm layer will be too
thick for snow to make it to the surface. As the near-surface layer
cools, rain will begin to mix with and then eventually change over
to snow mainly between 06z and 12z tonight. Precipitation amounts
during this time are anywhere from trace to 0.20", but with the warm
temperatures ahead of the front and warm/wet surface conditions, it
will take a pretty aggressive snow rate to accumulate any snow. Have
painted an area of 0.5-0.75" snow across northeast MO where the
coldest post-frontal temperatures and highest snowfall rates are
expected as the band moves through, then have tapered snow amounts
to zero elsewhere. The post-frontal band is expected to exit the
region by 12z, then perhaps just a dusting of light snow could wrap
back into northeast MO during the late morning/afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should not drop far below freezing with the bulk of the
cold air waiting until after 12z to push into the region, but little
to no temperature rise is expected across northern MO on Monday as
cold air continues to filter in. Elsewhere, highs may recover a bit
into the lower 40s by mid afternoon.

The next system will be a quick clipper that dives from Alberta into
northeast Missouri on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Light
snow is possible across the northeastern half of the CWA with this
feature, but low moisture availability will limit potential snow
accumulations to just a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Much of the long-term (particularly into next weekend) is plagued
spatially and temporally with model discrepancies with the GFS,
ECMWF, and the GEM struggling to agree, although the 12Z ECMWF has
come into a bit of a better agreement with the 12Z GFS as compared
to the 00Z ECMWF run. Low amplitude ridging at the 500mb level
appears to dominate much of the center of the country behind an
exiting sharp trough, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF runs
whereas the GEM brings a shortwave trough racing down from Canada
into MT/ND before phasing into a larger wave dominating over
Ontario. Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, they do
all generally agree on zonal flow aloft with ripples riding through
behind the NW flow on the backside of the aforementioned exiting
trough.

Between the GFS and the ECMWF, the GFS appears to be much more
progressive aloft and at the surface as compared to the ECMWF. High
pressure sinking south behind an exiting surface low takes hold of
the forecast area on Thursday, then quickly scoots across the Ohio
Valley, leaving the door open for a frontal boundary to sweep
through behind the high, according to the GFS. The ECMWF solution is
messier and slower and diverges significantly from the GFS at the
surface by next weekend. Taking all of this into account, have kept
the forecast area dry for this forecast period given a lack of a
clear precip-generating signal, except for the GFS that brings the
front through on Saturday, but again is low confidence given the
vastly different solutions.

With respect to temperatures, they look to remain on the cooler side
of normal through the end of the week, but again, the forecast for
the temps from late Friday onward has low confidence given the
discussed model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front has made its way through the terminals area with increased
precipitation occurring along and behind the boundary. Will see
gradually improving ceilings as drier air filters in behind the
front. Gusty NW winds look to stay in place through the forecast
period. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix overnight though will
remain short-lived with no significant accumulation expected due to
warm surface temperatures. Once the precipitation clears out low-
level scattered layer will remain in place through the forecast
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







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