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000
FXUS63 KLSX 260244
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
944 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 927 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

An extensive MCS which originated this afternoon across the
southern Plains continues to push eastward into the lower MS
Valley this evening. Large scale ascent associated with the
upstream shortwave trof, ponounced southerly lower trop flow of
moist unstable air, and system relative convergence is helping
maintain the line from AR into Eastern TX, however radar has begun
to show decreasing convective organization on the northern periphery
which is moving more northeastward into MO. This may result in a
diminished severe threat for southern MO. However, the southerly
LLJ is forecast to ramp up and veer later tonight and this combined
with large scale ascent associated with the progressive shortwave
trof and an apparent newd moving MCV presently in NW AR should
maintain a shield of northeast moving showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the CWA through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
PoPs from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance PoPs continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Next Weekend)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River Valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of May.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Primary concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex
currently moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. The upper level disturbance associated with the storms
will move over our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain
there will be rain and thunderstorms associated with the
disturbance as it moves across the area, but am less certain about
the strength, and areal coverage in thunderstorms. This
uncertainty is the primary reason the TAFs have prevailing showers
with vicinity thunder. Will continue to monitor the convection as
it moves into Missouri later this evening and adjust TAFs as
needed. Otherwise...expect VFR flight conditions ahead of the
rain, with ceilings falling to MVFR after the rain begins. If
storms can stay strong through the night, IFR visibility in
intermittent heavy rain is possible. Forecast for Tuesday is
uncertain as well, as warm moist and unstable air will persist
behind the early morning rain. Current thinking is that widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east
of the Mississippi River...but this could change depending on what
happens with the storms tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at Lambert at least
through the evening and for a few hours after 06Z.  Primary
concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex currently
moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The
upper level disturbance associated with the storms will move over
our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain there will be
rain and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance, but am
less certain about the strength, and areal coverage in
thunderstorms. This uncertainty is the primary reason the Lambert
TAF has prevailing showers with vicinity thunder. Will continue
to monitor the convection as it moves into Missouri later this
evening and adjust TAFs as needed. If storms can stay strong
through the night, IFR visibility in intermittent heavy rain is
possible. Forecast for Tuesday is uncertain as well, as warm moist
and unstable air will persist behind the early morning rain.
Current thinking is that widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east of the Mississippi
River...but this could change depending on what happens with the
storms tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260244
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
944 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 927 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

An extensive MCS which originated this afternoon across the
southern Plains continues to push eastward into the lower MS
Valley this evening. Large scale ascent associated with the
upstream shortwave trof, ponounced southerly lower trop flow of
moist unstable air, and system relative convergence is helping
maintain the line from AR into Eastern TX, however radar has begun
to show decreasing convective organization on the northern periphery
which is moving more northeastward into MO. This may result in a
diminished severe threat for southern MO. However, the southerly
LLJ is forecast to ramp up and veer later tonight and this combined
with large scale ascent associated with the progressive shortwave
trof and an apparent newd moving MCV presently in NW AR should
maintain a shield of northeast moving showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the CWA through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
PoPs from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance PoPs continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Next Weekend)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River Valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of May.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Primary concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex
currently moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. The upper level disturbance associated with the storms
will move over our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain
there will be rain and thunderstorms associated with the
disturbance as it moves across the area, but am less certain about
the strength, and areal coverage in thunderstorms. This
uncertainty is the primary reason the TAFs have prevailing showers
with vicinity thunder. Will continue to monitor the convection as
it moves into Missouri later this evening and adjust TAFs as
needed. Otherwise...expect VFR flight conditions ahead of the
rain, with ceilings falling to MVFR after the rain begins. If
storms can stay strong through the night, IFR visibility in
intermittent heavy rain is possible. Forecast for Tuesday is
uncertain as well, as warm moist and unstable air will persist
behind the early morning rain. Current thinking is that widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east
of the Mississippi River...but this could change depending on what
happens with the storms tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at Lambert at least
through the evening and for a few hours after 06Z.  Primary
concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex currently
moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The
upper level disturbance associated with the storms will move over
our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain there will be
rain and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance, but am
less certain about the strength, and areal coverage in
thunderstorms. This uncertainty is the primary reason the Lambert
TAF has prevailing showers with vicinity thunder. Will continue
to monitor the convection as it moves into Missouri later this
evening and adjust TAFs as needed. If storms can stay strong
through the night, IFR visibility in intermittent heavy rain is
possible. Forecast for Tuesday is uncertain as well, as warm moist
and unstable air will persist behind the early morning rain.
Current thinking is that widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east of the Mississippi
River...but this could change depending on what happens with the
storms tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 260013 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...Risk for severe storms increasing across southern Missouri...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 713 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Yet another challenging mesoscale convective situation unfolding
for our area this evening. We are continuing to monitor mixed mode
convection across Arkansas. Discrete cells have developed ahead of
a squall line (and associated bookend vortex in far eastern
Oklahoma), moving to the north-northeast. The bookend vortex has
been weakening steadily with time, though the squall line remains
healthy and the discrete cells somewhat concerning. The big
question, is how healthy this convection will remain as it heads
north into a slightly less supportive environment. To say the
least, signals are mixed and confidence is good enough to increase
the risk of damaging wind gusts across southern Missouri and
introduce a limited risk for a tornado for areas (mainly) south of
the highway 60 corridor.

There are pros and cons to the evolution of convection over the
next few hours. Without a doubt, mixed mode convection is there
and for the time being thriving in an environment characterized by
0-6km shear of 40kt (give or take) and most unstable CAPE of
around 3000 J/kg. Over our neck of the woods deep layer shear is
weaker, though it will increase as the main shortwave to our
southwest enters the region. The bigger question is how much CAPE
can we sustain. The airmass in place at this time is much different
than what we experienced yesterday. Precipitable water values are
around 1 inch and low level moisture is comparatively less. That
said, this system is bringing with it its own shear/moisture. In
addition, a southerly low level jet will ramp up in intensity over
the next 6 or so hours.

Expectations are for convection to enter southern Missouri in the
next couple of hours. We will be closely watching the behavior and
evolution of the discrete convection ahead of the squall line as
it has the better potential for producing a few tornadoes. In
addition, we will be watching the health of the squall line as it
moves northeast as well. Any northward surge will bare watching as
(nearly) south to north oriented 0-3km shear vectors increase to
40kt and result in an increased potential for mesovortex development.

As mentioned above, the risk for severe has been increased across
southern Missouri. Decreasing most unstable CAPE values do suggest
a weakening trend to the strength of convection as it moves deeper
into the area. That said, most areas will look to receive rainfall
tonight. With the focus for the best rain potential along and
southeast of the I-44 corridor, will not issue a short fused flash
flood watch given the progressive nature of this shortwave. Will
continue to monitor far western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
for additional rainfall and ongoing flood aggravation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR conditions early this evening will gradually become MVFR and
eventually IFR late tonight. A complex of convection and storms
will move up into the Missouri Ozarks later this evening. The best
timing will be between 02z to 05z followed by scattered showers.
Ceilings will drop to IFR after 06z for all sites. MVFR ceilings
early tomorrow morning will give way to VFR by late morning. Winds
will be southeasterly around 10 knots then becoming southwesterly
late tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260013 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...Risk for severe storms increasing across southern Missouri...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 713 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Yet another challenging mesoscale convective situation unfolding
for our area this evening. We are continuing to monitor mixed mode
convection across Arkansas. Discrete cells have developed ahead of
a squall line (and associated bookend vortex in far eastern
Oklahoma), moving to the north-northeast. The bookend vortex has
been weakening steadily with time, though the squall line remains
healthy and the discrete cells somewhat concerning. The big
question, is how healthy this convection will remain as it heads
north into a slightly less supportive environment. To say the
least, signals are mixed and confidence is good enough to increase
the risk of damaging wind gusts across southern Missouri and
introduce a limited risk for a tornado for areas (mainly) south of
the highway 60 corridor.

There are pros and cons to the evolution of convection over the
next few hours. Without a doubt, mixed mode convection is there
and for the time being thriving in an environment characterized by
0-6km shear of 40kt (give or take) and most unstable CAPE of
around 3000 J/kg. Over our neck of the woods deep layer shear is
weaker, though it will increase as the main shortwave to our
southwest enters the region. The bigger question is how much CAPE
can we sustain. The airmass in place at this time is much different
than what we experienced yesterday. Precipitable water values are
around 1 inch and low level moisture is comparatively less. That
said, this system is bringing with it its own shear/moisture. In
addition, a southerly low level jet will ramp up in intensity over
the next 6 or so hours.

Expectations are for convection to enter southern Missouri in the
next couple of hours. We will be closely watching the behavior and
evolution of the discrete convection ahead of the squall line as
it has the better potential for producing a few tornadoes. In
addition, we will be watching the health of the squall line as it
moves northeast as well. Any northward surge will bare watching as
(nearly) south to north oriented 0-3km shear vectors increase to
40kt and result in an increased potential for mesovortex development.

As mentioned above, the risk for severe has been increased across
southern Missouri. Decreasing most unstable CAPE values do suggest
a weakening trend to the strength of convection as it moves deeper
into the area. That said, most areas will look to receive rainfall
tonight. With the focus for the best rain potential along and
southeast of the I-44 corridor, will not issue a short fused flash
flood watch given the progressive nature of this shortwave. Will
continue to monitor far western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
for additional rainfall and ongoing flood aggravation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR conditions early this evening will gradually become MVFR and
eventually IFR late tonight. A complex of convection and storms
will move up into the Missouri Ozarks later this evening. The best
timing will be between 02z to 05z followed by scattered showers.
Ceilings will drop to IFR after 06z for all sites. MVFR ceilings
early tomorrow morning will give way to VFR by late morning. Winds
will be southeasterly around 10 knots then becoming southwesterly
late tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KSGF 260013 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...Risk for severe storms increasing across southern Missouri...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 713 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Yet another challenging mesoscale convective situation unfolding
for our area this evening. We are continuing to monitor mixed mode
convection across Arkansas. Discrete cells have developed ahead of
a squall line (and associated bookend vortex in far eastern
Oklahoma), moving to the north-northeast. The bookend vortex has
been weakening steadily with time, though the squall line remains
healthy and the discrete cells somewhat concerning. The big
question, is how healthy this convection will remain as it heads
north into a slightly less supportive environment. To say the
least, signals are mixed and confidence is good enough to increase
the risk of damaging wind gusts across southern Missouri and
introduce a limited risk for a tornado for areas (mainly) south of
the highway 60 corridor.

There are pros and cons to the evolution of convection over the
next few hours. Without a doubt, mixed mode convection is there
and for the time being thriving in an environment characterized by
0-6km shear of 40kt (give or take) and most unstable CAPE of
around 3000 J/kg. Over our neck of the woods deep layer shear is
weaker, though it will increase as the main shortwave to our
southwest enters the region. The bigger question is how much CAPE
can we sustain. The airmass in place at this time is much different
than what we experienced yesterday. Precipitable water values are
around 1 inch and low level moisture is comparatively less. That
said, this system is bringing with it its own shear/moisture. In
addition, a southerly low level jet will ramp up in intensity over
the next 6 or so hours.

Expectations are for convection to enter southern Missouri in the
next couple of hours. We will be closely watching the behavior and
evolution of the discrete convection ahead of the squall line as
it has the better potential for producing a few tornadoes. In
addition, we will be watching the health of the squall line as it
moves northeast as well. Any northward surge will bare watching as
(nearly) south to north oriented 0-3km shear vectors increase to
40kt and result in an increased potential for mesovortex development.

As mentioned above, the risk for severe has been increased across
southern Missouri. Decreasing most unstable CAPE values do suggest
a weakening trend to the strength of convection as it moves deeper
into the area. That said, most areas will look to receive rainfall
tonight. With the focus for the best rain potential along and
southeast of the I-44 corridor, will not issue a short fused flash
flood watch given the progressive nature of this shortwave. Will
continue to monitor far western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
for additional rainfall and ongoing flood aggravation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR conditions early this evening will gradually become MVFR and
eventually IFR late tonight. A complex of convection and storms
will move up into the Missouri Ozarks later this evening. The best
timing will be between 02z to 05z followed by scattered showers.
Ceilings will drop to IFR after 06z for all sites. MVFR ceilings
early tomorrow morning will give way to VFR by late morning. Winds
will be southeasterly around 10 knots then becoming southwesterly
late tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 260013 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...Risk for severe storms increasing across southern Missouri...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 713 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Yet another challenging mesoscale convective situation unfolding
for our area this evening. We are continuing to monitor mixed mode
convection across Arkansas. Discrete cells have developed ahead of
a squall line (and associated bookend vortex in far eastern
Oklahoma), moving to the north-northeast. The bookend vortex has
been weakening steadily with time, though the squall line remains
healthy and the discrete cells somewhat concerning. The big
question, is how healthy this convection will remain as it heads
north into a slightly less supportive environment. To say the
least, signals are mixed and confidence is good enough to increase
the risk of damaging wind gusts across southern Missouri and
introduce a limited risk for a tornado for areas (mainly) south of
the highway 60 corridor.

There are pros and cons to the evolution of convection over the
next few hours. Without a doubt, mixed mode convection is there
and for the time being thriving in an environment characterized by
0-6km shear of 40kt (give or take) and most unstable CAPE of
around 3000 J/kg. Over our neck of the woods deep layer shear is
weaker, though it will increase as the main shortwave to our
southwest enters the region. The bigger question is how much CAPE
can we sustain. The airmass in place at this time is much different
than what we experienced yesterday. Precipitable water values are
around 1 inch and low level moisture is comparatively less. That
said, this system is bringing with it its own shear/moisture. In
addition, a southerly low level jet will ramp up in intensity over
the next 6 or so hours.

Expectations are for convection to enter southern Missouri in the
next couple of hours. We will be closely watching the behavior and
evolution of the discrete convection ahead of the squall line as
it has the better potential for producing a few tornadoes. In
addition, we will be watching the health of the squall line as it
moves northeast as well. Any northward surge will bare watching as
(nearly) south to north oriented 0-3km shear vectors increase to
40kt and result in an increased potential for mesovortex development.

As mentioned above, the risk for severe has been increased across
southern Missouri. Decreasing most unstable CAPE values do suggest
a weakening trend to the strength of convection as it moves deeper
into the area. That said, most areas will look to receive rainfall
tonight. With the focus for the best rain potential along and
southeast of the I-44 corridor, will not issue a short fused flash
flood watch given the progressive nature of this shortwave. Will
continue to monitor far western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
for additional rainfall and ongoing flood aggravation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR conditions early this evening will gradually become MVFR and
eventually IFR late tonight. A complex of convection and storms
will move up into the Missouri Ozarks later this evening. The best
timing will be between 02z to 05z followed by scattered showers.
Ceilings will drop to IFR after 06z for all sites. MVFR ceilings
early tomorrow morning will give way to VFR by late morning. Winds
will be southeasterly around 10 knots then becoming southwesterly
late tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin








000
FXUS63 KLSX 260001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Relatively quiet Memorial Day across the area in the wake of
yesterdays thunderstorms with temperatures warming into the lower
and middle 80s. Meanwhile, a wicked MCS is currently churning
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and is associated
with the next significant shortwave that will lift northeast
toward our region tonight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the CWA through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
PoPs from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance PoPs continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Next Weekend)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River Valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of May.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Primary concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex
currently moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. The upper level disturbance associated with the storms
will move over our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain
there will be rain and thunderstorms associated with the
disturbance as it moves across the area, but am less certain about
the strength, and areal coverage in thunderstorms. This
uncertainty is the primary reason the TAFs have prevailing showers
with vicinity thunder. Will continue to monitor the convection as
it moves into Missouri later this evening and adjust TAFs as
needed. Otherwise...expect VFR flight conditions ahead of the
rain, with ceilings falling to MVFR after the rain begins. If
storms can stay strong through the night, IFR visibility in
intermittent heavy rain is possible. Forecast for Tuesday is
uncertain as well, as warm moist and unstable air will persist
behind the early morning rain. Current thinking is that widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east
of the Mississippi River...but this could change depending on what
happens with the storms tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at Lambert at least
through the evening and for a few hours after 06Z.  Primary
concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex currently
moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The
upper level disturbance associated with the storms will move over
our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain there will be
rain and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance, but am
less certain about the strength, and areal coverage in
thunderstorms. This uncertainty is the primary reason the Lambert
TAF has prevailing showers with vicinity thunder. Will continue
to monitor the convection as it moves into Missouri later this
evening and adjust TAFs as needed. If storms can stay strong
through the night, IFR visibility in intermittent heavy rain is
possible. Forecast for Tuesday is uncertain as well, as warm moist
and unstable air will persist behind the early morning rain.
Current thinking is that widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east of the Mississippi
River...but this could change depending on what happens with the
storms tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Relatively quiet Memorial Day across the area in the wake of
yesterdays thunderstorms with temperatures warming into the lower
and middle 80s. Meanwhile, a wicked MCS is currently churning
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and is associated
with the next significant shortwave that will lift northeast
toward our region tonight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the CWA through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
PoPs from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance PoPs continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Next Weekend)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River Valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of May.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Primary concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex
currently moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. The upper level disturbance associated with the storms
will move over our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain
there will be rain and thunderstorms associated with the
disturbance as it moves across the area, but am less certain about
the strength, and areal coverage in thunderstorms. This
uncertainty is the primary reason the TAFs have prevailing showers
with vicinity thunder. Will continue to monitor the convection as
it moves into Missouri later this evening and adjust TAFs as
needed. Otherwise...expect VFR flight conditions ahead of the
rain, with ceilings falling to MVFR after the rain begins. If
storms can stay strong through the night, IFR visibility in
intermittent heavy rain is possible. Forecast for Tuesday is
uncertain as well, as warm moist and unstable air will persist
behind the early morning rain. Current thinking is that widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east
of the Mississippi River...but this could change depending on what
happens with the storms tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at Lambert at least
through the evening and for a few hours after 06Z.  Primary
concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex currently
moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The
upper level disturbance associated with the storms will move over
our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain there will be
rain and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance, but am
less certain about the strength, and areal coverage in
thunderstorms. This uncertainty is the primary reason the Lambert
TAF has prevailing showers with vicinity thunder. Will continue
to monitor the convection as it moves into Missouri later this
evening and adjust TAFs as needed. If storms can stay strong
through the night, IFR visibility in intermittent heavy rain is
possible. Forecast for Tuesday is uncertain as well, as warm moist
and unstable air will persist behind the early morning rain.
Current thinking is that widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east of the Mississippi
River...but this could change depending on what happens with the
storms tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 260001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Relatively quiet Memorial Day across the area in the wake of
yesterdays thunderstorms with temperatures warming into the lower
and middle 80s. Meanwhile, a wicked MCS is currently churning
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and is associated
with the next significant shortwave that will lift northeast
toward our region tonight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the CWA through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
PoPs from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance PoPs continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Next Weekend)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River Valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of May.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Primary concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex
currently moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. The upper level disturbance associated with the storms
will move over our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain
there will be rain and thunderstorms associated with the
disturbance as it moves across the area, but am less certain about
the strength, and areal coverage in thunderstorms. This
uncertainty is the primary reason the TAFs have prevailing showers
with vicinity thunder. Will continue to monitor the convection as
it moves into Missouri later this evening and adjust TAFs as
needed. Otherwise...expect VFR flight conditions ahead of the
rain, with ceilings falling to MVFR after the rain begins. If
storms can stay strong through the night, IFR visibility in
intermittent heavy rain is possible. Forecast for Tuesday is
uncertain as well, as warm moist and unstable air will persist
behind the early morning rain. Current thinking is that widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east
of the Mississippi River...but this could change depending on what
happens with the storms tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at Lambert at least
through the evening and for a few hours after 06Z.  Primary
concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex currently
moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The
upper level disturbance associated with the storms will move over
our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain there will be
rain and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance, but am
less certain about the strength, and areal coverage in
thunderstorms. This uncertainty is the primary reason the Lambert
TAF has prevailing showers with vicinity thunder. Will continue
to monitor the convection as it moves into Missouri later this
evening and adjust TAFs as needed. If storms can stay strong
through the night, IFR visibility in intermittent heavy rain is
possible. Forecast for Tuesday is uncertain as well, as warm moist
and unstable air will persist behind the early morning rain.
Current thinking is that widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east of the Mississippi
River...but this could change depending on what happens with the
storms tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 260001
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
701 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Relatively quiet Memorial Day across the area in the wake of
yesterdays thunderstorms with temperatures warming into the lower
and middle 80s. Meanwhile, a wicked MCS is currently churning
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and is associated
with the next significant shortwave that will lift northeast
toward our region tonight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the CWA through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
PoPs from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance PoPs continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Next Weekend)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River Valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of May.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Primary concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex
currently moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. The upper level disturbance associated with the storms
will move over our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain
there will be rain and thunderstorms associated with the
disturbance as it moves across the area, but am less certain about
the strength, and areal coverage in thunderstorms. This
uncertainty is the primary reason the TAFs have prevailing showers
with vicinity thunder. Will continue to monitor the convection as
it moves into Missouri later this evening and adjust TAFs as
needed. Otherwise...expect VFR flight conditions ahead of the
rain, with ceilings falling to MVFR after the rain begins. If
storms can stay strong through the night, IFR visibility in
intermittent heavy rain is possible. Forecast for Tuesday is
uncertain as well, as warm moist and unstable air will persist
behind the early morning rain. Current thinking is that widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east
of the Mississippi River...but this could change depending on what
happens with the storms tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at Lambert at least
through the evening and for a few hours after 06Z.  Primary
concern for tonight is the large thunderstorm complex currently
moving northeast out of Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The
upper level disturbance associated with the storms will move over
our area after 05-06Z tonight. Am fairly certain there will be
rain and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance, but am
less certain about the strength, and areal coverage in
thunderstorms. This uncertainty is the primary reason the Lambert
TAF has prevailing showers with vicinity thunder. Will continue
to monitor the convection as it moves into Missouri later this
evening and adjust TAFs as needed. If storms can stay strong
through the night, IFR visibility in intermittent heavy rain is
possible. Forecast for Tuesday is uncertain as well, as warm moist
and unstable air will persist behind the early morning rain.
Current thinking is that widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly east of the Mississippi
River...but this could change depending on what happens with the
storms tonight.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 252350
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Primary evening updates were to issue a short-fused flash flood watch
for extreme northeast KS and parts of northwest MO for this evening
through mid-morning Tuesday. Multiple rounds of storms are likely to
trek over this area, and periods of heavy rainfall rates will create
significant runoff over already saturated grounds.

The threat for severe weather continues across northeast KS and
northwest MO this evening as well. Deep layer bulk shear values
increase from west to east to about 40-45 kts across north central
MO, and storms that have developed this evening will continue moving
into this regime. MUCAPE values are still more than supportive of
robust convection, generally between 2500-3500 J/kg. Aircraft
soundings indicate a continued capping inversion right around 800 hPa
in the Kansas City area, so may have to wait several hours before
storms impact the metro. Current trends indicate that the two areas
of storms which are 1) trailing from northwest MO to central KS, and
2) near the Wichita area could arrive around the same time, first
impacting KC between 11 PM and midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Primary concern is the potential for severe convection to occur this
afternoon through this evening.

Afternoon water vapor imagery, visible satellite and surface
observations reveal a very complex pattern. In the upper levels,
several distinct shortwave troughs were noted within the main
longwave pattern. The strongest was rotating into west Texas, and
this may have the best influence on our area later this evening and
tonight. The other is over western Nebraska and may ultimately
phase/merge with the west Texas wave. At the lower levels and the
surface, there appears to be an area of low level convergence/theta
e advection max extending from a surface low in south central Kansas
through northeastern Kansas. It`s this convergence area that seems
most likely to initiate convection that will ultimate influence the
forecast area. The anticipation is that convection will initiate on
this convergent area from south central Kansas into northeastern
Kansas this afternoon and early this evening. The eastward extension
of this would most likely occur as cooling aloft/deeper forcing
associated with the phasing/merging shortwaves as they move eastward.
So in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe, there may be in increase in coverage
over eastern Kansas that will then begin to influence most of the
western portions of the forecast area. CAPE will be strong, perhaps
as high as 3500 J/kg late this afternoon. However shear is marginal
and 0-3km helicity is not overly impressive. However, the
combination of strong instability, marginal shear, 0-1km helicity
values in the 120-140 m^2/s^2 range, in the presence of a weak
boundary/convergence area, may support rotating storms initially
before an imbalance in the instability/shear results in cold pool
dominated regime. With decent mid-level lapse rates and modest
downdraft CAPE, large hail and damaging winds look to be biggest
threat. However, an tornado or two can`t be ruled out, especially
with low LCLs in the area. Shear is expected to increase through the
night as the influence from the upper shortwave trough begins to
have more influence on the area. So there may be a potential for
convective system, possibly severe, to move through during the
overnight hours with the best potential for severe weather overnight
in our southern and southeastern zones. Given increasingly strong
0-1km shear, close to perpendicular to the storm motion, and
increasing low level helicity late tonight, a few circulations
within the possible convective line seem possible. Timing of this
would be late tonight and seems most likely confined to our southern
and southeastern zones based on latest trends from short-range model
guidance.

Precipitation will likely be winding down from west to east through
the day in the wake of the possible convective system and its
associated subsidence. But continued troughiness, for lack of a
better term, may continue to lead to a few/scattered showers/storms
across northern Missouri.

The overall unsettled weather pattern looks to persist through the
remainder of the week. While the flow is closer to zonal, there is
enough troughing to our west and ridging to our east to maintain a
southerly moist flow. By the end of the week and into the weekend,
models move this western trough over the region as either a cutoff
low or at least a slow moving system. Through the extended, there
doesn`t appear to be a 12 hour period where some precipitation isn`t
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR conditions will continue for a few hours at all terminals, before
areas of thunderstorms build into the area. Currently, it looks like
storms may impact the KSTJ terminal as early as 01-02z, and the KC
metro terminals beginning between 04-05z. These storms should clear
out of the area between 10-12z, leaving behind VFR conditions for the
remainder of Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR KSZ102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR MOZ001>005-011-012.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Laflin
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 252350
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Primary evening updates were to issue a short-fused flash flood watch
for extreme northeast KS and parts of northwest MO for this evening
through mid-morning Tuesday. Multiple rounds of storms are likely to
trek over this area, and periods of heavy rainfall rates will create
significant runoff over already saturated grounds.

The threat for severe weather continues across northeast KS and
northwest MO this evening as well. Deep layer bulk shear values
increase from west to east to about 40-45 kts across north central
MO, and storms that have developed this evening will continue moving
into this regime. MUCAPE values are still more than supportive of
robust convection, generally between 2500-3500 J/kg. Aircraft
soundings indicate a continued capping inversion right around 800 hPa
in the Kansas City area, so may have to wait several hours before
storms impact the metro. Current trends indicate that the two areas
of storms which are 1) trailing from northwest MO to central KS, and
2) near the Wichita area could arrive around the same time, first
impacting KC between 11 PM and midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Primary concern is the potential for severe convection to occur this
afternoon through this evening.

Afternoon water vapor imagery, visible satellite and surface
observations reveal a very complex pattern. In the upper levels,
several distinct shortwave troughs were noted within the main
longwave pattern. The strongest was rotating into west Texas, and
this may have the best influence on our area later this evening and
tonight. The other is over western Nebraska and may ultimately
phase/merge with the west Texas wave. At the lower levels and the
surface, there appears to be an area of low level convergence/theta
e advection max extending from a surface low in south central Kansas
through northeastern Kansas. It`s this convergence area that seems
most likely to initiate convection that will ultimate influence the
forecast area. The anticipation is that convection will initiate on
this convergent area from south central Kansas into northeastern
Kansas this afternoon and early this evening. The eastward extension
of this would most likely occur as cooling aloft/deeper forcing
associated with the phasing/merging shortwaves as they move eastward.
So in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe, there may be in increase in coverage
over eastern Kansas that will then begin to influence most of the
western portions of the forecast area. CAPE will be strong, perhaps
as high as 3500 J/kg late this afternoon. However shear is marginal
and 0-3km helicity is not overly impressive. However, the
combination of strong instability, marginal shear, 0-1km helicity
values in the 120-140 m^2/s^2 range, in the presence of a weak
boundary/convergence area, may support rotating storms initially
before an imbalance in the instability/shear results in cold pool
dominated regime. With decent mid-level lapse rates and modest
downdraft CAPE, large hail and damaging winds look to be biggest
threat. However, an tornado or two can`t be ruled out, especially
with low LCLs in the area. Shear is expected to increase through the
night as the influence from the upper shortwave trough begins to
have more influence on the area. So there may be a potential for
convective system, possibly severe, to move through during the
overnight hours with the best potential for severe weather overnight
in our southern and southeastern zones. Given increasingly strong
0-1km shear, close to perpendicular to the storm motion, and
increasing low level helicity late tonight, a few circulations
within the possible convective line seem possible. Timing of this
would be late tonight and seems most likely confined to our southern
and southeastern zones based on latest trends from short-range model
guidance.

Precipitation will likely be winding down from west to east through
the day in the wake of the possible convective system and its
associated subsidence. But continued troughiness, for lack of a
better term, may continue to lead to a few/scattered showers/storms
across northern Missouri.

The overall unsettled weather pattern looks to persist through the
remainder of the week. While the flow is closer to zonal, there is
enough troughing to our west and ridging to our east to maintain a
southerly moist flow. By the end of the week and into the weekend,
models move this western trough over the region as either a cutoff
low or at least a slow moving system. Through the extended, there
doesn`t appear to be a 12 hour period where some precipitation isn`t
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR conditions will continue for a few hours at all terminals, before
areas of thunderstorms build into the area. Currently, it looks like
storms may impact the KSTJ terminal as early as 01-02z, and the KC
metro terminals beginning between 04-05z. These storms should clear
out of the area between 10-12z, leaving behind VFR conditions for the
remainder of Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR KSZ102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR MOZ001>005-011-012.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Laflin
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252259
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...00z Aviation Forecast Update..

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR conditions early this evening will gradually become MVFR and
eventually IFR late tonight. A complex of convection and storms
will move up into the Missouri Ozarks later this evening. The best
timing will be between 02z to 05z followed by scattered showers.
Ceilings will drop to IFR after 06z for all sites. MVFR ceilings
early tomorrow morning will give way to VFR by late morning. Winds
will be southeasterly around 10 knots then becoming southwesterly
late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 252259
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...00z Aviation Forecast Update..

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR conditions early this evening will gradually become MVFR and
eventually IFR late tonight. A complex of convection and storms
will move up into the Missouri Ozarks later this evening. The best
timing will be between 02z to 05z followed by scattered showers.
Ceilings will drop to IFR after 06z for all sites. MVFR ceilings
early tomorrow morning will give way to VFR by late morning. Winds
will be southeasterly around 10 knots then becoming southwesterly
late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252027
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...More Storms and Locally Heavy Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

What`s left of the MCS that moved through Kansas overnight
continues to move eastward through the region this afternoon.
Short term guidance is suggesting that a couple showers are
possible later this afternoon ahead of the next significant mid-
level disturbance that should push through overnight. As it does,
rain and perhaps a few claps of thunder will move from Oklahoma
and/or northern Arkansas into the MO Ozarks.

Generally, MVFR conditions expected, however, confidence in cigs
dropping into the IFR and perhaps into the LIFR range Tuesday
morning is increasing. Cigs will begin to improve over all three
terminals by mid to late morning. Like the last few days, A Marginal
LLWS signal is there, however, low confidence/thresholds kept it
short of being highlighted.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252027
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...More Storms and Locally Heavy Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

What`s left of the MCS that moved through Kansas overnight
continues to move eastward through the region this afternoon.
Short term guidance is suggesting that a couple showers are
possible later this afternoon ahead of the next significant mid-
level disturbance that should push through overnight. As it does,
rain and perhaps a few claps of thunder will move from Oklahoma
and/or northern Arkansas into the MO Ozarks.

Generally, MVFR conditions expected, however, confidence in cigs
dropping into the IFR and perhaps into the LIFR range Tuesday
morning is increasing. Cigs will begin to improve over all three
terminals by mid to late morning. Like the last few days, A Marginal
LLWS signal is there, however, low confidence/thresholds kept it
short of being highlighted.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252027
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...More Storms and Locally Heavy Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

What`s left of the MCS that moved through Kansas overnight
continues to move eastward through the region this afternoon.
Short term guidance is suggesting that a couple showers are
possible later this afternoon ahead of the next significant mid-
level disturbance that should push through overnight. As it does,
rain and perhaps a few claps of thunder will move from Oklahoma
and/or northern Arkansas into the MO Ozarks.

Generally, MVFR conditions expected, however, confidence in cigs
dropping into the IFR and perhaps into the LIFR range Tuesday
morning is increasing. Cigs will begin to improve over all three
terminals by mid to late morning. Like the last few days, A Marginal
LLWS signal is there, however, low confidence/thresholds kept it
short of being highlighted.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 252027
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...More Storms and Locally Heavy Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

What`s left of the MCS that moved through Kansas overnight
continues to move eastward through the region this afternoon.
Short term guidance is suggesting that a couple showers are
possible later this afternoon ahead of the next significant mid-
level disturbance that should push through overnight. As it does,
rain and perhaps a few claps of thunder will move from Oklahoma
and/or northern Arkansas into the MO Ozarks.

Generally, MVFR conditions expected, however, confidence in cigs
dropping into the IFR and perhaps into the LIFR range Tuesday
morning is increasing. Cigs will begin to improve over all three
terminals by mid to late morning. Like the last few days, A Marginal
LLWS signal is there, however, low confidence/thresholds kept it
short of being highlighted.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Primary concern is the potential for severe convection to occur this
afternoon through this evening.

Afternoon water vapor imagery, visible satellite and surface
observations reveal a very complex pattern. In the upper levels,
several distinct shortwave troughs were noted within the main
longwave pattern. The strongest was rotating into west Texas, and
this may have the best influence on our area later this evening and
tonight. The other is over western Nebraska and may ultimately
phase/merge with the west Texas wave. At the lower levels and the
surface, there appears to be an area of low level convergence/theta
e advection max extending from a surface low in south central Kansas
through northeastern Kansas. It`s this convergence area that seems
most likely to initiate convection that will ultimate influence the
forecast area. The anticipation is that convection will initiate on
this convergent area from south central Kansas into northeastern
Kansas this afternoon and early this evening. The eastward extension
of this would most likely occur as cooling aloft/deeper forcing
associated with the phasing/merging shortwaves as they move eastward.
So in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe, there may be in increase in coverage
over eastern Kansas that will then begin to influence most of the
western portions of the forecast area. CAPE will be strong, perhaps
as high as 3500 J/kg late this afternoon. However shear is marginal
and 0-3km helicity is not overly impressive. However, the
combination of strong instability, marginal shear, 0-1km helicity
values in the 120-140 m^2/s^2 range, in the presence of a weak
boundary/convergence area, may support rotating storms initially
before an imbalance in the instability/shear results in cold pool
dominated regime. With decent mid-level lapse rates and modest
downdraft CAPE, large hail and damaging winds look to be biggest
threat. However, an tornado or two can`t be ruled out, especially
with low LCLs in the area. Shear is expected to increase through the
night as the influence from the upper shortwave trough begins to
have more influence on the area. So there may be a potential for
convective system, possibly severe, to move through during the
overnight hours with the best potential for severe weather overnight
in our southern and southeastern zones. Given increasingly strong
0-1km shear, close to perpendicular to the storm motion, and
increasing low level helicity late tonight, a few circulations
within the possible convective line seem possible. Timing of this
would be late tonight and seems most likely confined to our southern
and southeastern zones based on latest trends from short-range model
guidance.

Precipitation will likely be winding down from west to east through
the day in the wake of the possible convective system and its
associated subsidence. But continued troughiness, for lack of a
better term, may continue to lead to a few/scattered showers/storms
across northern Missouri.

The overall unsettled weather pattern looks to persist through the
remainder of the week. While the flow is closer to zonal, there is
enough troughing to our west and ridging to our east to maintain a
southerly moist flow. By the end of the week and into the weekend,
models move this western trough over the region as either a cutoff
low or at least a slow moving system. Through the extended, there
doesn`t appear to be a 12 hour period where some precipitation isn`t
possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Conditions are expected to generally be lower end VFR this
afternoon. But given low level trajectories and upstream
obs/satellite images, could see periods of MVFR as the cu/stratocu
develop. As mixing deepens these should tend to lift later this
afternoon. Focus then turns to the next round of possible storms.
Thinking storms will form from central to northeastern KS this
afternoon. But for the terminals, cooling aloft will need to occur
and that will arrive early this evening as the influence of one,
perhaps two, upper shortwave troughs approaches. So after 00Z there
may be an increase in thunderstorm coverage as the cap erodes. All
this activity may congeal into a cluster of storms and track through
the area overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Primary concern is the potential for severe convection to occur this
afternoon through this evening.

Afternoon water vapor imagery, visible satellite and surface
observations reveal a very complex pattern. In the upper levels,
several distinct shortwave troughs were noted within the main
longwave pattern. The strongest was rotating into west Texas, and
this may have the best influence on our area later this evening and
tonight. The other is over western Nebraska and may ultimately
phase/merge with the west Texas wave. At the lower levels and the
surface, there appears to be an area of low level convergence/theta
e advection max extending from a surface low in south central Kansas
through northeastern Kansas. It`s this convergence area that seems
most likely to initiate convection that will ultimate influence the
forecast area. The anticipation is that convection will initiate on
this convergent area from south central Kansas into northeastern
Kansas this afternoon and early this evening. The eastward extension
of this would most likely occur as cooling aloft/deeper forcing
associated with the phasing/merging shortwaves as they move eastward.
So in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe, there may be in increase in coverage
over eastern Kansas that will then begin to influence most of the
western portions of the forecast area. CAPE will be strong, perhaps
as high as 3500 J/kg late this afternoon. However shear is marginal
and 0-3km helicity is not overly impressive. However, the
combination of strong instability, marginal shear, 0-1km helicity
values in the 120-140 m^2/s^2 range, in the presence of a weak
boundary/convergence area, may support rotating storms initially
before an imbalance in the instability/shear results in cold pool
dominated regime. With decent mid-level lapse rates and modest
downdraft CAPE, large hail and damaging winds look to be biggest
threat. However, an tornado or two can`t be ruled out, especially
with low LCLs in the area. Shear is expected to increase through the
night as the influence from the upper shortwave trough begins to
have more influence on the area. So there may be a potential for
convective system, possibly severe, to move through during the
overnight hours with the best potential for severe weather overnight
in our southern and southeastern zones. Given increasingly strong
0-1km shear, close to perpendicular to the storm motion, and
increasing low level helicity late tonight, a few circulations
within the possible convective line seem possible. Timing of this
would be late tonight and seems most likely confined to our southern
and southeastern zones based on latest trends from short-range model
guidance.

Precipitation will likely be winding down from west to east through
the day in the wake of the possible convective system and its
associated subsidence. But continued troughiness, for lack of a
better term, may continue to lead to a few/scattered showers/storms
across northern Missouri.

The overall unsettled weather pattern looks to persist through the
remainder of the week. While the flow is closer to zonal, there is
enough troughing to our west and ridging to our east to maintain a
southerly moist flow. By the end of the week and into the weekend,
models move this western trough over the region as either a cutoff
low or at least a slow moving system. Through the extended, there
doesn`t appear to be a 12 hour period where some precipitation isn`t
possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Conditions are expected to generally be lower end VFR this
afternoon. But given low level trajectories and upstream
obs/satellite images, could see periods of MVFR as the cu/stratocu
develop. As mixing deepens these should tend to lift later this
afternoon. Focus then turns to the next round of possible storms.
Thinking storms will form from central to northeastern KS this
afternoon. But for the terminals, cooling aloft will need to occur
and that will arrive early this evening as the influence of one,
perhaps two, upper shortwave troughs approaches. So after 00Z there
may be an increase in thunderstorm coverage as the cap erodes. All
this activity may congeal into a cluster of storms and track through
the area overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Primary concern is the potential for severe convection to occur this
afternoon through this evening.

Afternoon water vapor imagery, visible satellite and surface
observations reveal a very complex pattern. In the upper levels,
several distinct shortwave troughs were noted within the main
longwave pattern. The strongest was rotating into west Texas, and
this may have the best influence on our area later this evening and
tonight. The other is over western Nebraska and may ultimately
phase/merge with the west Texas wave. At the lower levels and the
surface, there appears to be an area of low level convergence/theta
e advection max extending from a surface low in south central Kansas
through northeastern Kansas. It`s this convergence area that seems
most likely to initiate convection that will ultimate influence the
forecast area. The anticipation is that convection will initiate on
this convergent area from south central Kansas into northeastern
Kansas this afternoon and early this evening. The eastward extension
of this would most likely occur as cooling aloft/deeper forcing
associated with the phasing/merging shortwaves as they move eastward.
So in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe, there may be in increase in coverage
over eastern Kansas that will then begin to influence most of the
western portions of the forecast area. CAPE will be strong, perhaps
as high as 3500 J/kg late this afternoon. However shear is marginal
and 0-3km helicity is not overly impressive. However, the
combination of strong instability, marginal shear, 0-1km helicity
values in the 120-140 m^2/s^2 range, in the presence of a weak
boundary/convergence area, may support rotating storms initially
before an imbalance in the instability/shear results in cold pool
dominated regime. With decent mid-level lapse rates and modest
downdraft CAPE, large hail and damaging winds look to be biggest
threat. However, an tornado or two can`t be ruled out, especially
with low LCLs in the area. Shear is expected to increase through the
night as the influence from the upper shortwave trough begins to
have more influence on the area. So there may be a potential for
convective system, possibly severe, to move through during the
overnight hours with the best potential for severe weather overnight
in our southern and southeastern zones. Given increasingly strong
0-1km shear, close to perpendicular to the storm motion, and
increasing low level helicity late tonight, a few circulations
within the possible convective line seem possible. Timing of this
would be late tonight and seems most likely confined to our southern
and southeastern zones based on latest trends from short-range model
guidance.

Precipitation will likely be winding down from west to east through
the day in the wake of the possible convective system and its
associated subsidence. But continued troughiness, for lack of a
better term, may continue to lead to a few/scattered showers/storms
across northern Missouri.

The overall unsettled weather pattern looks to persist through the
remainder of the week. While the flow is closer to zonal, there is
enough troughing to our west and ridging to our east to maintain a
southerly moist flow. By the end of the week and into the weekend,
models move this western trough over the region as either a cutoff
low or at least a slow moving system. Through the extended, there
doesn`t appear to be a 12 hour period where some precipitation isn`t
possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Conditions are expected to generally be lower end VFR this
afternoon. But given low level trajectories and upstream
obs/satellite images, could see periods of MVFR as the cu/stratocu
develop. As mixing deepens these should tend to lift later this
afternoon. Focus then turns to the next round of possible storms.
Thinking storms will form from central to northeastern KS this
afternoon. But for the terminals, cooling aloft will need to occur
and that will arrive early this evening as the influence of one,
perhaps two, upper shortwave troughs approaches. So after 00Z there
may be an increase in thunderstorm coverage as the cap erodes. All
this activity may congeal into a cluster of storms and track through
the area overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 252014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Primary concern is the potential for severe convection to occur this
afternoon through this evening.

Afternoon water vapor imagery, visible satellite and surface
observations reveal a very complex pattern. In the upper levels,
several distinct shortwave troughs were noted within the main
longwave pattern. The strongest was rotating into west Texas, and
this may have the best influence on our area later this evening and
tonight. The other is over western Nebraska and may ultimately
phase/merge with the west Texas wave. At the lower levels and the
surface, there appears to be an area of low level convergence/theta
e advection max extending from a surface low in south central Kansas
through northeastern Kansas. It`s this convergence area that seems
most likely to initiate convection that will ultimate influence the
forecast area. The anticipation is that convection will initiate on
this convergent area from south central Kansas into northeastern
Kansas this afternoon and early this evening. The eastward extension
of this would most likely occur as cooling aloft/deeper forcing
associated with the phasing/merging shortwaves as they move eastward.
So in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe, there may be in increase in coverage
over eastern Kansas that will then begin to influence most of the
western portions of the forecast area. CAPE will be strong, perhaps
as high as 3500 J/kg late this afternoon. However shear is marginal
and 0-3km helicity is not overly impressive. However, the
combination of strong instability, marginal shear, 0-1km helicity
values in the 120-140 m^2/s^2 range, in the presence of a weak
boundary/convergence area, may support rotating storms initially
before an imbalance in the instability/shear results in cold pool
dominated regime. With decent mid-level lapse rates and modest
downdraft CAPE, large hail and damaging winds look to be biggest
threat. However, an tornado or two can`t be ruled out, especially
with low LCLs in the area. Shear is expected to increase through the
night as the influence from the upper shortwave trough begins to
have more influence on the area. So there may be a potential for
convective system, possibly severe, to move through during the
overnight hours with the best potential for severe weather overnight
in our southern and southeastern zones. Given increasingly strong
0-1km shear, close to perpendicular to the storm motion, and
increasing low level helicity late tonight, a few circulations
within the possible convective line seem possible. Timing of this
would be late tonight and seems most likely confined to our southern
and southeastern zones based on latest trends from short-range model
guidance.

Precipitation will likely be winding down from west to east through
the day in the wake of the possible convective system and its
associated subsidence. But continued troughiness, for lack of a
better term, may continue to lead to a few/scattered showers/storms
across northern Missouri.

The overall unsettled weather pattern looks to persist through the
remainder of the week. While the flow is closer to zonal, there is
enough troughing to our west and ridging to our east to maintain a
southerly moist flow. By the end of the week and into the weekend,
models move this western trough over the region as either a cutoff
low or at least a slow moving system. Through the extended, there
doesn`t appear to be a 12 hour period where some precipitation isn`t
possible.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Conditions are expected to generally be lower end VFR this
afternoon. But given low level trajectories and upstream
obs/satellite images, could see periods of MVFR as the cu/stratocu
develop. As mixing deepens these should tend to lift later this
afternoon. Focus then turns to the next round of possible storms.
Thinking storms will form from central to northeastern KS this
afternoon. But for the terminals, cooling aloft will need to occur
and that will arrive early this evening as the influence of one,
perhaps two, upper shortwave troughs approaches. So after 00Z there
may be an increase in thunderstorm coverage as the cap erodes. All
this activity may congeal into a cluster of storms and track through
the area overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KLSX 251939
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Relatively quiet Memorial Day across the area in the wake of
yesterdays thunderstorms with temperatures warming into the lower
and middle 80s. Meanwhile, a wicked MCS is currently churning
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and is associated
with the next significant shortwave that will lift northeast
toward our region tonight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the CWA through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
PoPs from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance PoPs continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Next Weekend)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River Valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of May.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites this
afternoon and into the evening hours unless a rogue thunderstorm
develops and happens to move directly over one of the terminals.
The chance of afternoon TSRA appears to be higher at
KCOU/KSTL/KSUS/KCPS than at KUIN due to those sites` proximity to
an outflow boundary which moved into the region earlier this
morning. A period of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to lift northeastward and affect all terminals late
tonight and tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs and precipitation are
expected to reach KCOU around 06-09z, KSTL/KSUS/KCPS around
08-11z, and KUIN around 10-13z. Initially southwesterly winds will
gradually back and become more southerly or southeasterly today
and tonight, then become southwesterly again towards the end of
the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     71  81  70  83 /  80  70  20  50
Quincy          65  79  63  80 /  70  70  20  30
Columbia        64  80  64  80 /  80  50  30  40
Jefferson City  65  81  65  81 /  80  50  30  40
Salem           68  78  68  83 /  50  70  20  50
Farmington      65  78  64  81 /  80  60  20  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 251939
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Relatively quiet Memorial Day across the area in the wake of
yesterdays thunderstorms with temperatures warming into the lower
and middle 80s. Meanwhile, a wicked MCS is currently churning
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and is associated
with the next significant shortwave that will lift northeast
toward our region tonight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the CWA through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
PoPs from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance PoPs continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Next Weekend)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River Valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of May.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites this
afternoon and into the evening hours unless a rogue thunderstorm
develops and happens to move directly over one of the terminals.
The chance of afternoon TSRA appears to be higher at
KCOU/KSTL/KSUS/KCPS than at KUIN due to those sites` proximity to
an outflow boundary which moved into the region earlier this
morning. A period of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to lift northeastward and affect all terminals late
tonight and tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs and precipitation are
expected to reach KCOU around 06-09z, KSTL/KSUS/KCPS around
08-11z, and KUIN around 10-13z. Initially southwesterly winds will
gradually back and become more southerly or southeasterly today
and tonight, then become southwesterly again towards the end of
the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     71  81  70  83 /  80  70  20  50
Quincy          65  79  63  80 /  70  70  20  30
Columbia        64  80  64  80 /  80  50  30  40
Jefferson City  65  81  65  81 /  80  50  30  40
Salem           68  78  68  83 /  50  70  20  50
Farmington      65  78  64  81 /  80  60  20  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 251939
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Relatively quiet Memorial Day across the area in the wake of
yesterdays thunderstorms with temperatures warming into the lower
and middle 80s. Meanwhile, a wicked MCS is currently churning
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and is associated
with the next significant shortwave that will lift northeast
toward our region tonight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the CWA through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
PoPs from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance PoPs continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Next Weekend)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River Valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of May.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites this
afternoon and into the evening hours unless a rogue thunderstorm
develops and happens to move directly over one of the terminals.
The chance of afternoon TSRA appears to be higher at
KCOU/KSTL/KSUS/KCPS than at KUIN due to those sites` proximity to
an outflow boundary which moved into the region earlier this
morning. A period of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to lift northeastward and affect all terminals late
tonight and tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs and precipitation are
expected to reach KCOU around 06-09z, KSTL/KSUS/KCPS around
08-11z, and KUIN around 10-13z. Initially southwesterly winds will
gradually back and become more southerly or southeasterly today
and tonight, then become southwesterly again towards the end of
the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     71  81  70  83 /  80  70  20  50
Quincy          65  79  63  80 /  70  70  20  30
Columbia        64  80  64  80 /  80  50  30  40
Jefferson City  65  81  65  81 /  80  50  30  40
Salem           68  78  68  83 /  50  70  20  50
Farmington      65  78  64  81 /  80  60  20  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 251939
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Relatively quiet Memorial Day across the area in the wake of
yesterdays thunderstorms with temperatures warming into the lower
and middle 80s. Meanwhile, a wicked MCS is currently churning
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma and is associated
with the next significant shortwave that will lift northeast
toward our region tonight.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Expect quiet weather to continue for any remaining holiday
festivities this evening, with the anticipation that the northern
portion of the aforementioned MCS, likely in a decaying phase,
will be entering our southwestern counties shortly after midnight.
Large scale ascent with the shortwave should initiate additional
convection further north as well with the entire area moving
northeast through the remainder of the CWA through daybreak on
Tuesday. Not sure how much redevelopment will be able to occur
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the morning rain. Have lowered
PoPs from west to east Tuesday afternoon.

Have chance PoPs continuing Tuesday night through Thursday as a
series of weaker shortwaves are forecast to impact the area as the
upper level pattern temporarily becomes a little more zonal.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Next Weekend)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase as the upper trough will
deepen again to our west by the end of the work week and actually
progress east into the middle Mississippi River Valley by the end of
the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for the end of May.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites this
afternoon and into the evening hours unless a rogue thunderstorm
develops and happens to move directly over one of the terminals.
The chance of afternoon TSRA appears to be higher at
KCOU/KSTL/KSUS/KCPS than at KUIN due to those sites` proximity to
an outflow boundary which moved into the region earlier this
morning. A period of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to lift northeastward and affect all terminals late
tonight and tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs and precipitation are
expected to reach KCOU around 06-09z, KSTL/KSUS/KCPS around
08-11z, and KUIN around 10-13z. Initially southwesterly winds will
gradually back and become more southerly or southeasterly today
and tonight, then become southwesterly again towards the end of
the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     71  81  70  83 /  80  70  20  50
Quincy          65  79  63  80 /  70  70  20  30
Columbia        64  80  64  80 /  80  50  30  40
Jefferson City  65  81  65  81 /  80  50  30  40
Salem           68  78  68  83 /  50  70  20  50
Farmington      65  78  64  81 /  80  60  20  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 251740
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1240 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Area of showers currently over west central Missouri will move
northeast and will affect some of the northeast Missouri counties
before 9 am ahead of the mid level shortwave that will move out of
the area by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect a drier day today as
area will lie under subsidence in the wake of the shortwave
trough. Only exception will be over parts of central and southeast
Missouri into southern Illinois where the atmosphere will become
unstable which could still lead to a few showers and thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon hours. High temperatures this
afternoon will be close to what they were on Sunday, which were in
the lower-mid 80s.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Will continue to follow the NAM/ECMWF which has had the best
continuity as of late.  Have kept with current trends on PoPs
tonight into Tuesday.  A shortwave ridge will move off to the east
of the area tonight which will allow for a rapid increase in ascent
after 06Z caused by the approach the next mid-level trough and
increasing low-level moisture convergence.  Will keep likely PoPs
over much of the southern half of the CWA of the area after midnight
tonight, and continue them into Tuesday morning as the mid-
level trough moves through before the showers and thunderstorms
become scattered during the afternoon.  The chance of thunderstorms
will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as another weak shortwave
moves across the area.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Rain chances will continue into the extended part of the forecast as
upper trough over western CONUS moves into the Great Plains and
eventually through Middle Mississippi Valley by next Sunday.  ECMWF
shows a series of shortwave troughs with attendant low level
moisture convergence moving through the area ahead of this main
trough.  This is worth keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in each day with the best chance on Saturday when ECMWF currently
shows a cold front moving through.  Temperatures will stay close to
normal with 850mb temperatures in the 10-15C range.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites this
afternoon and into the evening hours unless a rogue thunderstorm
develops and happens to move directly over one of the terminals.
The chance of afternoon TSRA appears to be higher at
KCOU/KSTL/KSUS/KCPS than at KUIN due to those sites` proximity to
an outflow boundary which moved into the region earlier this
morning. A period of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to lift northeastward and affect all terminals late
tonight and tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs and precipitation are
expected to reach KCOU around 06-09z, KSTL/KSUS/KCPS around
08-11z, and KUIN around 10-13z. Initially southwesterly winds will
gradually back and become more southerly or southeasterly today
and tonight, then become southwesterly again towards the end of
the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251740
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1240 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Area of showers currently over west central Missouri will move
northeast and will affect some of the northeast Missouri counties
before 9 am ahead of the mid level shortwave that will move out of
the area by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect a drier day today as
area will lie under subsidence in the wake of the shortwave
trough. Only exception will be over parts of central and southeast
Missouri into southern Illinois where the atmosphere will become
unstable which could still lead to a few showers and thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon hours. High temperatures this
afternoon will be close to what they were on Sunday, which were in
the lower-mid 80s.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Will continue to follow the NAM/ECMWF which has had the best
continuity as of late.  Have kept with current trends on PoPs
tonight into Tuesday.  A shortwave ridge will move off to the east
of the area tonight which will allow for a rapid increase in ascent
after 06Z caused by the approach the next mid-level trough and
increasing low-level moisture convergence.  Will keep likely PoPs
over much of the southern half of the CWA of the area after midnight
tonight, and continue them into Tuesday morning as the mid-
level trough moves through before the showers and thunderstorms
become scattered during the afternoon.  The chance of thunderstorms
will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as another weak shortwave
moves across the area.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Rain chances will continue into the extended part of the forecast as
upper trough over western CONUS moves into the Great Plains and
eventually through Middle Mississippi Valley by next Sunday.  ECMWF
shows a series of shortwave troughs with attendant low level
moisture convergence moving through the area ahead of this main
trough.  This is worth keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in each day with the best chance on Saturday when ECMWF currently
shows a cold front moving through.  Temperatures will stay close to
normal with 850mb temperatures in the 10-15C range.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites this
afternoon and into the evening hours unless a rogue thunderstorm
develops and happens to move directly over one of the terminals.
The chance of afternoon TSRA appears to be higher at
KCOU/KSTL/KSUS/KCPS than at KUIN due to those sites` proximity to
an outflow boundary which moved into the region earlier this
morning. A period of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to lift northeastward and affect all terminals late
tonight and tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs and precipitation are
expected to reach KCOU around 06-09z, KSTL/KSUS/KCPS around
08-11z, and KUIN around 10-13z. Initially southwesterly winds will
gradually back and become more southerly or southeasterly today
and tonight, then become southwesterly again towards the end of
the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

What`s left of the MCS that moved through Kansas overnight
continues to move eastward through the region this afternoon.
Short term guidance is suggesting that a couple showers are
possible later this afternoon ahead of the next significant mid-
level disturbance that should push through overnight. As it does,
rain and perhaps a few claps of thunder will move from Oklahoma
and/or northern Arkansas into the MO Ozarks.

Generally, MVFR conditions expected, however, confidence in cigs
dropping into the IFR and perhaps into the LIFR range Tuesday
morning is increasing. Cigs will begin to improve over all three
terminals by mid to late morning. Like the last few days, A Marginal
LLWS signal is there, however, low confidence/thresholds kept it
short of being highlighted.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Frye






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

What`s left of the MCS that moved through Kansas overnight
continues to move eastward through the region this afternoon.
Short term guidance is suggesting that a couple showers are
possible later this afternoon ahead of the next significant mid-
level disturbance that should push through overnight. As it does,
rain and perhaps a few claps of thunder will move from Oklahoma
and/or northern Arkansas into the MO Ozarks.

Generally, MVFR conditions expected, however, confidence in cigs
dropping into the IFR and perhaps into the LIFR range Tuesday
morning is increasing. Cigs will begin to improve over all three
terminals by mid to late morning. Like the last few days, A Marginal
LLWS signal is there, however, low confidence/thresholds kept it
short of being highlighted.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

What`s left of the MCS that moved through Kansas overnight
continues to move eastward through the region this afternoon.
Short term guidance is suggesting that a couple showers are
possible later this afternoon ahead of the next significant mid-
level disturbance that should push through overnight. As it does,
rain and perhaps a few claps of thunder will move from Oklahoma
and/or northern Arkansas into the MO Ozarks.

Generally, MVFR conditions expected, however, confidence in cigs
dropping into the IFR and perhaps into the LIFR range Tuesday
morning is increasing. Cigs will begin to improve over all three
terminals by mid to late morning. Like the last few days, A Marginal
LLWS signal is there, however, low confidence/thresholds kept it
short of being highlighted.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Frye






000
FXUS63 KSGF 251736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

What`s left of the MCS that moved through Kansas overnight
continues to move eastward through the region this afternoon.
Short term guidance is suggesting that a couple showers are
possible later this afternoon ahead of the next significant mid-
level disturbance that should push through overnight. As it does,
rain and perhaps a few claps of thunder will move from Oklahoma
and/or northern Arkansas into the MO Ozarks.

Generally, MVFR conditions expected, however, confidence in cigs
dropping into the IFR and perhaps into the LIFR range Tuesday
morning is increasing. Cigs will begin to improve over all three
terminals by mid to late morning. Like the last few days, A Marginal
LLWS signal is there, however, low confidence/thresholds kept it
short of being highlighted.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Have increased PoPs across far west central and northwest MO and
eastern KS for the first part of this morning. The bowing convective
segment we`ve been watching tracking east across KS early this
morning is beginning to weaken but should hold together long enough
as it passes into our far western counties to warrant increasing rain
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Conditions are expected to generally be lower end VFR this
afternoon. But given low level trajectories and upstream
obs/satellite images, could see periods of MVFR as the cu/stratocu
develop. As mixing deepens these should tend to lift later this
afternoon. Focus then turns to the next round of possible storms.
Thinking storms will form from central to northeastern KS this
afternoon. But for the terminals, cooling aloft will need to occur
and that will arrive early this evening as the influence of one,
perhaps two, upper shortwave troughs approaches. So after 00Z there
may be an increase in thunderstorm coverage as the cap erodes. All
this activity may congeal into a cluster of storms and track through
the area overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Have increased PoPs across far west central and northwest MO and
eastern KS for the first part of this morning. The bowing convective
segment we`ve been watching tracking east across KS early this
morning is beginning to weaken but should hold together long enough
as it passes into our far western counties to warrant increasing rain
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Conditions are expected to generally be lower end VFR this
afternoon. But given low level trajectories and upstream
obs/satellite images, could see periods of MVFR as the cu/stratocu
develop. As mixing deepens these should tend to lift later this
afternoon. Focus then turns to the next round of possible storms.
Thinking storms will form from central to northeastern KS this
afternoon. But for the terminals, cooling aloft will need to occur
and that will arrive early this evening as the influence of one,
perhaps two, upper shortwave troughs approaches. So after 00Z there
may be an increase in thunderstorm coverage as the cap erodes. All
this activity may congeal into a cluster of storms and track through
the area overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Have increased PoPs across far west central and northwest MO and
eastern KS for the first part of this morning. The bowing convective
segment we`ve been watching tracking east across KS early this
morning is beginning to weaken but should hold together long enough
as it passes into our far western counties to warrant increasing rain
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Conditions are expected to generally be lower end VFR this
afternoon. But given low level trajectories and upstream
obs/satellite images, could see periods of MVFR as the cu/stratocu
develop. As mixing deepens these should tend to lift later this
afternoon. Focus then turns to the next round of possible storms.
Thinking storms will form from central to northeastern KS this
afternoon. But for the terminals, cooling aloft will need to occur
and that will arrive early this evening as the influence of one,
perhaps two, upper shortwave troughs approaches. So after 00Z there
may be an increase in thunderstorm coverage as the cap erodes. All
this activity may congeal into a cluster of storms and track through
the area overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251153
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Have increased PoPs across far west central and northwest MO and
eastern KS for the first part of this morning. The bowing convective
segment we`ve been watching tracking east across KS early this
morning is beginning to weaken but should hold together long enough
as it passes into our far western counties to warrant increasing rain
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A bwoing line of showers and thunderstorms will affect the terminals
for the first few hours of the forecast. IFR ceilings over southeast
and east central KS may not reach the terminals due to the convection
moving into west central and northwest MO. So, MVFR ceilings for this
morning before rising to VFR this afternoon.

Southerly winds should increase and become gusty as ceilings lift and
possibly even scatter out.

Later this evening scattered convection over southern NE/northern KS could
move into northwest MO, including KSTJ. Plus covection further south may
affect areas south of Kansas City. Otherwise, VFR conditions at the
Kansas City terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 251153
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Have increased PoPs across far west central and northwest MO and
eastern KS for the first part of this morning. The bowing convective
segment we`ve been watching tracking east across KS early this
morning is beginning to weaken but should hold together long enough
as it passes into our far western counties to warrant increasing rain
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A bwoing line of showers and thunderstorms will affect the terminals
for the first few hours of the forecast. IFR ceilings over southeast
and east central KS may not reach the terminals due to the convection
moving into west central and northwest MO. So, MVFR ceilings for this
morning before rising to VFR this afternoon.

Southerly winds should increase and become gusty as ceilings lift and
possibly even scatter out.

Later this evening scattered convection over southern NE/northern KS could
move into northwest MO, including KSTJ. Plus covection further south may
affect areas south of Kansas City. Otherwise, VFR conditions at the
Kansas City terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251153
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Have increased PoPs across far west central and northwest MO and
eastern KS for the first part of this morning. The bowing convective
segment we`ve been watching tracking east across KS early this
morning is beginning to weaken but should hold together long enough
as it passes into our far western counties to warrant increasing rain
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A bwoing line of showers and thunderstorms will affect the terminals
for the first few hours of the forecast. IFR ceilings over southeast
and east central KS may not reach the terminals due to the convection
moving into west central and northwest MO. So, MVFR ceilings for this
morning before rising to VFR this afternoon.

Southerly winds should increase and become gusty as ceilings lift and
possibly even scatter out.

Later this evening scattered convection over southern NE/northern KS could
move into northwest MO, including KSTJ. Plus covection further south may
affect areas south of Kansas City. Otherwise, VFR conditions at the
Kansas City terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 251153
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Have increased PoPs across far west central and northwest MO and
eastern KS for the first part of this morning. The bowing convective
segment we`ve been watching tracking east across KS early this
morning is beginning to weaken but should hold together long enough
as it passes into our far western counties to warrant increasing rain
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A bwoing line of showers and thunderstorms will affect the terminals
for the first few hours of the forecast. IFR ceilings over southeast
and east central KS may not reach the terminals due to the convection
moving into west central and northwest MO. So, MVFR ceilings for this
morning before rising to VFR this afternoon.

Southerly winds should increase and become gusty as ceilings lift and
possibly even scatter out.

Later this evening scattered convection over southern NE/northern KS could
move into northwest MO, including KSTJ. Plus covection further south may
affect areas south of Kansas City. Otherwise, VFR conditions at the
Kansas City terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251125
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
625 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Area of showers currently over west central Missouri will move
northeast and will affect some of the northeast Missouri counties
before 9 am ahead of the mid level shortwave that will move out of
the area by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect a drier day today as
area will lie under subsidence in the wake of the shortwave
trough. Only exception will be over parts of central and southeast
Missouri into southern Illinois where the atmosphere will become
unstable which could still lead to a few showers and thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon hours. High temperatures this
afternoon will be close to what they were on Sunday, which were in
the lower-mid 80s.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Will continue to follow the NAM/ECMWF which has had the best
continuity as of late.  Have kept with current trends on PoPs
tonight into Tuesday.  A shortwave ridge will move off to the east
of the area tonight which will allow for a rapid increase in ascent
after 06Z caused by the approach the next mid-level trough and
increasing low-level moisture convergence.  Will keep likely PoPs
over much of the southern half of the CWA of the area after midnight
tonight, and continue them into Tuesday morning as the mid-
level trough moves through before the showers and thunderstorms
become scattered during the afternoon.  The chance of thunderstorms
will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as another weak shortwave
moves across the area.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Rain chances will continue into the extended part of the forecast as
upper trough over western CONUS moves into the Great Plains and
eventually through Middle Mississippi Valley by next Sunday.  ECMWF
shows a series of shortwave troughs with attendant low level
moisture convergence moving through the area ahead of this main
trough.  This is worth keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in each day with the best chance on Saturday when ECMWF currently
shows a cold front moving through.  Temperatures will stay close to
normal with 850mb temperatures in the 10-15C range.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Conditions expected to improve at terminals this morning,
eventually becoming mostly clear today. Can not rule out isod to
sct TSRA this afternoon into the evening with peak heating.
However, believe main focus for precip will be late tonight into
Tues morning. MVFR cigs are expected to accompany this precip.
Otherwise, winds are expected to be swly to sly thru this evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Pockets of MVFR cigs shud gradually become
more sct with dry conditions expected thru this eve. Can not rule
out isod to sct TSRA this afternoon, but any threat shud be
primarily W of the terminal. Expect precip to move into the area
late tonight into Tues morning with MVFR cigs.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 251125
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
625 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Area of showers currently over west central Missouri will move
northeast and will affect some of the northeast Missouri counties
before 9 am ahead of the mid level shortwave that will move out of
the area by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect a drier day today as
area will lie under subsidence in the wake of the shortwave
trough. Only exception will be over parts of central and southeast
Missouri into southern Illinois where the atmosphere will become
unstable which could still lead to a few showers and thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon hours. High temperatures this
afternoon will be close to what they were on Sunday, which were in
the lower-mid 80s.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Will continue to follow the NAM/ECMWF which has had the best
continuity as of late.  Have kept with current trends on PoPs
tonight into Tuesday.  A shortwave ridge will move off to the east
of the area tonight which will allow for a rapid increase in ascent
after 06Z caused by the approach the next mid-level trough and
increasing low-level moisture convergence.  Will keep likely PoPs
over much of the southern half of the CWA of the area after midnight
tonight, and continue them into Tuesday morning as the mid-
level trough moves through before the showers and thunderstorms
become scattered during the afternoon.  The chance of thunderstorms
will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as another weak shortwave
moves across the area.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Rain chances will continue into the extended part of the forecast as
upper trough over western CONUS moves into the Great Plains and
eventually through Middle Mississippi Valley by next Sunday.  ECMWF
shows a series of shortwave troughs with attendant low level
moisture convergence moving through the area ahead of this main
trough.  This is worth keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in each day with the best chance on Saturday when ECMWF currently
shows a cold front moving through.  Temperatures will stay close to
normal with 850mb temperatures in the 10-15C range.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Conditions expected to improve at terminals this morning,
eventually becoming mostly clear today. Can not rule out isod to
sct TSRA this afternoon into the evening with peak heating.
However, believe main focus for precip will be late tonight into
Tues morning. MVFR cigs are expected to accompany this precip.
Otherwise, winds are expected to be swly to sly thru this evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Pockets of MVFR cigs shud gradually become
more sct with dry conditions expected thru this eve. Can not rule
out isod to sct TSRA this afternoon, but any threat shud be
primarily W of the terminal. Expect precip to move into the area
late tonight into Tues morning with MVFR cigs.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 251119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue for much of this
morning across southern Missouri. There will be patches of IFR
ceilings, especially around Joplin. Flight categories will then
improve to VFR across the area by mid-afternoon with winds
increasing out of the south. Weather models are then indicating
the potential for a band of showers and thunderstorms moving in
from the southwest this evening. We have maintained a PROB30 group
to cover this potential.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 251119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue for much of this
morning across southern Missouri. There will be patches of IFR
ceilings, especially around Joplin. Flight categories will then
improve to VFR across the area by mid-afternoon with winds
increasing out of the south. Weather models are then indicating
the potential for a band of showers and thunderstorms moving in
from the southwest this evening. We have maintained a PROB30 group
to cover this potential.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 251119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue for much of this
morning across southern Missouri. There will be patches of IFR
ceilings, especially around Joplin. Flight categories will then
improve to VFR across the area by mid-afternoon with winds
increasing out of the south. Weather models are then indicating
the potential for a band of showers and thunderstorms moving in
from the southwest this evening. We have maintained a PROB30 group
to cover this potential.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 251119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue for much of this
morning across southern Missouri. There will be patches of IFR
ceilings, especially around Joplin. Flight categories will then
improve to VFR across the area by mid-afternoon with winds
increasing out of the south. Weather models are then indicating
the potential for a band of showers and thunderstorms moving in
from the southwest this evening. We have maintained a PROB30 group
to cover this potential.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 251119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue for much of this
morning across southern Missouri. There will be patches of IFR
ceilings, especially around Joplin. Flight categories will then
improve to VFR across the area by mid-afternoon with winds
increasing out of the south. Weather models are then indicating
the potential for a band of showers and thunderstorms moving in
from the southwest this evening. We have maintained a PROB30 group
to cover this potential.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 250922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

Memorial Day:

At least 3 weather features to consider for today/tonight. The last
shortwave of a system which brought us a wet weekend is currently
tracking through the western portion of the CWA. Area of showers (no
instability = no thunder) will clear the northeast portion of the
forecast area shortly after sunrise. Clearing is not imminent as
noted by extensive area of low clouds which have formed across
central and eastern KS. Short range models expand this cloud cover
across the region this morning. Will lower hourly temperatures to
account for this but believe we`ll see sufficient breaks in the
afternoon to allow for rapid warmup and thus achieve seasonal type
highs.

Next feature is a small MCS with a bowing segment which continues
progressing east through central KS. Last several runs of the HRRR
weaken this feature as it continues to press east into a less
favorable airmass but so far the system has resisted this forecast.
Will carry some low end chance PoPs over northwest/west central
counties to account for the remnants.

Last feature deals with the severe potential over northwest MO this
evening. A closed upper low over CO is progged to shift into the
Central Plains with scattered afternoon convection forming over
south central NE/north central KS where airmass destabilizes, MUCAPE
in of 2500+ J/kg and low-end 0-6km shear of 30-35kt. A westerly
steering flow would allow any MCS to track east and into northwest
MO during the evening hours. Damaging winds looks like the main
threat.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Unsettled pattern with a departing shortwave on Tuesday followed by
shortwave ridging moving across the Central Plains and MO on
Wednesday and then increasing southwesterly flow aloft on Thursday.
Operational models continue to drag then stall a weak boundary over
northern MO. With isentropic ascent tied to the passing of the
shortwave ridging on Wednesday and weak perturbations embedded
within the southwesterly flow on Thursday plus the aforementioned
boundary to help focus convergence we should have several chances
for active convection.

Friday - Sunday:

This period looks even more unsettled with high expectations for
rain as a broad and slow moving upper trough nudges eastward. Gulf
of Mexico will be open to allow deep moisture plume to advect
northward. This looks ominous for another round of heavy rains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250842
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
342 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

Area of showers currently over west central Missouri will move
northeast and will affect some of the northeast Missouri counties
before 9 am ahead of the mid level shortwave that will move out of
the area by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect a drier day today as
area will lie under subsidence in the wake of the shortwave
trough. Only exception will be over parts of central and southeast
Missouri into southern Illinois where the atmosphere will become
unstable which could still lead to a few showers and thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon hours. High temperatures this
afternoon will be close to what they were on Sunday, which were in
the lower-mid 80s.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Will continue to follow the NAM/ECMWF which has had the best
continuity as of late.  Have kept with current trends on PoPs
tonight into Tuesday.  A shortwave ridge will move off to the east
of the area tonight which will allow for a rapid increase in ascent
after 06Z caused by the approach the next mid-level trough and
increasing low-level moisture convergence.  Will keep likely PoPs
over much of the southern half of the CWA of the area after midnight
tonight, and continue them into Tuesday morning as the mid-
level trough moves through before the showers and thunderstorms
become scattered during the afternoon.  The chance of thunderstorms
will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as another weak shortwave
moves across the area.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Rain chances will continue into the extended part of the forecast as
upper trough over western CONUS moves into the Great Plains and
eventually through Middle Mississippi Valley by next Sunday.  ECMWF
shows a series of shortwave troughs with attendant low level
moisture convergence moving through the area ahead of this main
trough.  This is worth keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in each day with the best chance on Saturday when ECMWF currently
shows a cold front moving through.  Temperatures will stay close to
normal with 850mb temperatures in the 10-15C range.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the St. Louis regional
terminals the remainder of the night. Showers will continue to
impact KCOU and KUIN with potential for IFR conditions. Otherwise
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact all terminals overnight with conditions improving
and clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Specifics for KSTL:
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the remainder of the night.
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact KSTL overnight with conditions improving and
clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250819
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250819
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250819
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250819
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250546
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 250546
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A very moist low level air mass will remain in place across
southern Missouri into early Monday morning. Ceilings will trend
downward towards the IFR range by late tonight, with pockets of
LIFR expected. Pockets of drizzle and light rain showers will also
continue during the early overnight hours. Meanwhile, any breaks
in the clouds will result in a quick onset of fog. The best
prospects for fog will be around Joplin, where there is the
potential for dense fog during the predawn hours. Flight
conditions will then slowly improve starting around mid-morning on
Monday with winds increasing from the south. VFR conditions should
return to the area by mid-afternoon on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 250445
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250445
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250445
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 250445
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Current ceilings are a mix between low-end VFR and MVFR, and trends
suggest that prevailing conditions should eventually become MVFR,
albeit there may be some fluctuations overnight between the two
categories. Otherwise, mixing and drier air should promote a return
to VFR by mid-morning with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KLSX 250429
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the St. Louis regional
terminals the remainder of the night. Showers will continue to
impact KCOU and KUIN with potential for IFR conditions. Otherwise
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact all terminals overnight with conditions improving
and clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Specifics for KSTL:
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the remainder of the night.
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact KSTL overnight with conditions improving and
clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 250429
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the St. Louis regional
terminals the remainder of the night. Showers will continue to
impact KCOU and KUIN with potential for IFR conditions. Otherwise
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact all terminals overnight with conditions improving
and clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Specifics for KSTL:
Other than some sprinkles or an isolated shower it appears that
the threat of rain is rather low for the remainder of the night.
MVFR flight conditions/cigs are expected to develop across the
area and impact KSTL overnight with conditions improving and
clouds becoming scattered by mid morning on Monday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 250001 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Mid-level shortwave/mesoscale convective vortex continues to surge
northeast into the region at this hour. Quasi-linear convective
complex associated with this feature is now moving into the
eastern portion of the forecast area. "Best" CAPE is out ahead of
the line over the far eastern Ozarks, where MUCAPE approaches 1000
J/kg. Shear remains high both in the deep layer and low levels,
with low level shear increasing over the next few hours as the low
level jet increases.

The good news is that this system continues to accelerate to the
northeast, most likely exiting before the low level jet begins to
peak. As a result, our severe threat will be for the next hour or
so, with just lingering showers the rest of the evening. The main
risk of severe continues to be an isolated tornado or localized
wind gust.

IR satellite imagery is showing a fast advancing clearing line
from our southwest. If trends continue, there will be a risk for
fog overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather continues across the region. For JLN/SGF/BBG, the
main concerns this evening will be scattered showers and MVFR
cigs. Winds will be variable as a quick moving area of low
pressure moves overhead. Fog concerns are increasing overnight
tonight. Clearing noted on IR satellite imagery over the southern
Plains is advancing to the northeast. This clearing has a good
chance of spreading over the TAF sites. If this does indeed occur,
fog is expected. At this time, IFR visibility has been introduced
and will update as trends continue to unfold this evening. Any
linger clouds/fog should clear by mid/late Monday morning. Overall
a quieter day is expected with gusty south winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 250001 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Mid-level shortwave/mesoscale convective vortex continues to surge
northeast into the region at this hour. Quasi-linear convective
complex associated with this feature is now moving into the
eastern portion of the forecast area. "Best" CAPE is out ahead of
the line over the far eastern Ozarks, where MUCAPE approaches 1000
J/kg. Shear remains high both in the deep layer and low levels,
with low level shear increasing over the next few hours as the low
level jet increases.

The good news is that this system continues to accelerate to the
northeast, most likely exiting before the low level jet begins to
peak. As a result, our severe threat will be for the next hour or
so, with just lingering showers the rest of the evening. The main
risk of severe continues to be an isolated tornado or localized
wind gust.

IR satellite imagery is showing a fast advancing clearing line
from our southwest. If trends continue, there will be a risk for
fog overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather continues across the region. For JLN/SGF/BBG, the
main concerns this evening will be scattered showers and MVFR
cigs. Winds will be variable as a quick moving area of low
pressure moves overhead. Fog concerns are increasing overnight
tonight. Clearing noted on IR satellite imagery over the southern
Plains is advancing to the northeast. This clearing has a good
chance of spreading over the TAF sites. If this does indeed occur,
fog is expected. At this time, IFR visibility has been introduced
and will update as trends continue to unfold this evening. Any
linger clouds/fog should clear by mid/late Monday morning. Overall
a quieter day is expected with gusty south winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan





000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 242349
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Expect periods of SH/TS to continue through the evening until a
low pressure system lifts away from the area. MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist for several hours after the rain has ended.
Once ceilings fall to MVFR later tonight, improvement is not
expected until after 12z. Winds will remain southeasterly to
southerly, then turn southwesterly after 06z with the passage of
the surface low. Winds are forecast to back once again and become
southerly after 18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain showers will lift up from the southwest this
evening and tonight, likely impacting all TAF sites between 02z and
at least 08z Monday. Ceilings with these showers are generally around
or slightly above 2 kft, although periods of lower-end MVFR will
become possible after 08z. Eventually, MVFR ceilings will scatter out
by mid-morning Monday, leaving behind VFR conditions for the rest of
the TAF period. Winds will gradually back to the south, increasing to
speeds around 10-12 kts by mid-morning Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain showers will lift up from the southwest this
evening and tonight, likely impacting all TAF sites between 02z and
at least 08z Monday. Ceilings with these showers are generally around
or slightly above 2 kft, although periods of lower-end MVFR will
become possible after 08z. Eventually, MVFR ceilings will scatter out
by mid-morning Monday, leaving behind VFR conditions for the rest of
the TAF period. Winds will gradually back to the south, increasing to
speeds around 10-12 kts by mid-morning Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Severe Weather & Flooding Tonight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Increase in showers and thunderstorms as we head into late this
afternoon and evening.

Convection had increased across south central Missouri within an
axis of modest mixed layer CAPE while additional convection
associated with an advancing shortwave trough was approaching from
northern Arkansas. This more potent shortwave will lift north
into southern Missouri this evening. Widespread convection will
accompany this feature as it heads north.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-3 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization
with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG across south
central Missouri. In addition...short term models prog low level
CAPE values potentially up to around 125 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly isolated
tornadoes. The overall risk for severe weather is slight but
aforementioned parameters to support the potential.

The risk for severe weather will be primarily east of Highway 65
across south central Missouri through about 10 PM.

The flooding risk will also increase again this evening with the
heaviest rainfall across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye






000
FXUS63 KSGF 242159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Severe Weather & Flooding Tonight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Increase in showers and thunderstorms as we head into late this
afternoon and evening.

Convection had increased across south central Missouri within an
axis of modest mixed layer CAPE while additional convection
associated with an advancing shortwave trough was approaching from
northern Arkansas. This more potent shortwave will lift north
into southern Missouri this evening. Widespread convection will
accompany this feature as it heads north.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-3 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization
with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG across south
central Missouri. In addition...short term models prog low level
CAPE values potentially up to around 125 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly isolated
tornadoes. The overall risk for severe weather is slight but
aforementioned parameters to support the potential.

The risk for severe weather will be primarily east of Highway 65
across south central Missouri through about 10 PM.

The flooding risk will also increase again this evening with the
heaviest rainfall across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Severe Weather & Flooding Tonight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Increase in showers and thunderstorms as we head into late this
afternoon and evening.

Convection had increased across south central Missouri within an
axis of modest mixed layer CAPE while additional convection
associated with an advancing shortwave trough was approaching from
northern Arkansas. This more potent shortwave will lift north
into southern Missouri this evening. Widespread convection will
accompany this feature as it heads north.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-3 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization
with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG across south
central Missouri. In addition...short term models prog low level
CAPE values potentially up to around 125 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly isolated
tornadoes. The overall risk for severe weather is slight but
aforementioned parameters to support the potential.

The risk for severe weather will be primarily east of Highway 65
across south central Missouri through about 10 PM.

The flooding risk will also increase again this evening with the
heaviest rainfall across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye







000
FXUS63 KSGF 242159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Severe Weather & Flooding Tonight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Increase in showers and thunderstorms as we head into late this
afternoon and evening.

Convection had increased across south central Missouri within an
axis of modest mixed layer CAPE while additional convection
associated with an advancing shortwave trough was approaching from
northern Arkansas. This more potent shortwave will lift north
into southern Missouri this evening. Widespread convection will
accompany this feature as it heads north.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-3 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization
with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG across south
central Missouri. In addition...short term models prog low level
CAPE values potentially up to around 125 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly isolated
tornadoes. The overall risk for severe weather is slight but
aforementioned parameters to support the potential.

The risk for severe weather will be primarily east of Highway 65
across south central Missouri through about 10 PM.

The flooding risk will also increase again this evening with the
heaviest rainfall across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye






000
FXUS63 KEAX 242026
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 242026
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Severe threat east of Route 65 should come to an end in the next few
hrs as modest instability axis continues to build east into east-
central and northeastern Missouri. Beyond that...main concerns remain
focused on ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall this evening with
regional radar mosaic showing the third and final blow developing
over northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Current thinking is this
activity will begin tracking northward later this evening/early
overnight as main mid-level wave and associated sfc reflection ride
up a lingering convergent trough axis now in place along/near the
Route 65 corridor. Due to the slight eastward shift in expected sfc
low track...heaviest rains overnight will likely remain focused east
of the KC Metro...while areas along and west of the highway 71 and
I-35 corridors should be able to breath a sigh of relief. Obviously
this can all change...and evening/overnight shifts will have to
monitor trends. At last count...28 forecast points on area rivers and
streams are in...or expected to reach flood stage. Any slight
movement east or west of main QPF axis later tonight may have impacts
on forecasted crest heights for several locations (i.e. Mosby, MO).

Main wave to move through during the early morning which should lead
to a gradual drying trend towards daybreak. Much of tomorrow looks to
remain dry however cannot rule out developing shwrs/storms across far
northwest MO/northeast KS by late afternoon as main mid-level wave
moves through the Central Plains. As this feature nears...expect wind
fields to increase as confluent flow on east side of trough axis glances
our area. Main limiting factor will be a fairly strong cap which if
it can break...a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

Main cold front associated with aforementioned system to move in
during the early morning hrs on Wednesday. Models have been
consistent in their suggestion that feature will stall across
northern portions of the fcst area...with boundary then acting as a
mechanism for renewed shwr/storm development through the middle
stages of the work week. With zonal flow prevailing aloft...no real
signs for enhanced winds thus overall severe threat looks minimal at
this vantage point. Heading into the latter stages of the work week
and next weekend...upper-level pattern looks blocky once again with
next large scale wave stalling over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. GFS advertises a large upper low spinning across central
Kansas with the ECMWF showing a similar (open wave) solution.
Regardless...unsettled wx pattern looks like its here to stay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241859
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
159 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241859
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
159 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241802
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
102 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and
Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Frye








000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241756
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1256 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KSGF 241742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Flooding and Severe Weather this Afternoon and Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Additional rounds of showers along with the development of thunderstorms
are expected as we head into this afternoon and evening.

Showers at midday were focused along the Highway 65 corridor in
association with a weak shortwave trough lifting north across
eastern Kansas. Expect this activity to train northward into the
afternoon and remain focused along and west of the Highway 65
corridor. Expect a gradual increase in intensity in this
convection as the air mass becomes more unstable to the east. The
primary flood risk into the afternoon will be along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor within the Flash Flood Watch area.

Another more potent shortwave trough was lifting north from
northern Texas. Short term models bring this feature northward into
the Ozarks and southern Missouri late this afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread convection to develop ahead of this system and
spread north northeast into southern Missouri from mid afternoon
into the evening hours.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-6 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization this
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG
across south central Missouri. In addition...short term models
prog low level CAPE values potentially up to around 100 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly a an
isolated tornado. The overall risk for severe weather is slight
but aforementioned parameters to support the potential. The
primary time frame for potential severe weather will be between 3
and 10 PM.

The flooding risk and possible expansion of the Flash Flood
Watch will be evaluated farther east into south central Missouri
where heavy will develop later today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241650
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A couple of waves of activity will affect the area through the
afternoon and evening hours. The first is a band of light
precipitation which will continue to move over the terminal sites
from the southwest. Ceilings may be reduced periodically during this
time until 20Z. Activity should taper off during the mid-afternoon
hours with improving ceilings as the afternoon progresses. The final
round of precipitation will then develop by the early evening hours.
Activity should remain in place until early Monday morning, though
ceiling heights should remain VFR. Dry air will then filter in toward
the end of the forecast period with overcast skies gradually
dissipating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KSGF 241150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch








000
FXUS63 KSGF 241150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The storm system moving across the region will continue to bring
MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals
across the Ozarks today and overnight tonight. Surface winds will
be gusty at times from the south especially in the vicinity of
Isolated thunderstorms. Heavy rain will at times limit
visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Some improvement to VFR is expected by
late morning Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Main question for this TAF period will be timing of precip.
Ongoing precip across wrn MO shud slowly dissipate this morning.
However, isod to sct TSRA shud develop across the region late this
morning into the afternoon hours. The main threat for precip will
be late this afternoon thru at least the evening hrs. Precip may
need to be continued beyond going TAFs. Otherwise, winds will
become sely to sly with gusts to at least 25 kts. Winds will
become swly late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Strong and gusty sely to sly winds expected
today. Main threat for precip remains late this afternoon thru the
evening hrs. Precip may need to be continued beyond going TAF with
future updates. Winds will become swly late tonight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 241143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Main question for this TAF period will be timing of precip.
Ongoing precip across wrn MO shud slowly dissipate this morning.
However, isod to sct TSRA shud develop across the region late this
morning into the afternoon hours. The main threat for precip will
be late this afternoon thru at least the evening hrs. Precip may
need to be continued beyond going TAFs. Otherwise, winds will
become sely to sly with gusts to at least 25 kts. Winds will
become swly late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Strong and gusty sely to sly winds expected
today. Main threat for precip remains late this afternoon thru the
evening hrs. Precip may need to be continued beyond going TAF with
future updates. Winds will become swly late tonight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Main question for this TAF period will be timing of precip.
Ongoing precip across wrn MO shud slowly dissipate this morning.
However, isod to sct TSRA shud develop across the region late this
morning into the afternoon hours. The main threat for precip will
be late this afternoon thru at least the evening hrs. Precip may
need to be continued beyond going TAFs. Otherwise, winds will
become sely to sly with gusts to at least 25 kts. Winds will
become swly late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Strong and gusty sely to sly winds expected
today. Main threat for precip remains late this afternoon thru the
evening hrs. Precip may need to be continued beyond going TAF with
future updates. Winds will become swly late tonight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 241143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Main question for this TAF period will be timing of precip.
Ongoing precip across wrn MO shud slowly dissipate this morning.
However, isod to sct TSRA shud develop across the region late this
morning into the afternoon hours. The main threat for precip will
be late this afternoon thru at least the evening hrs. Precip may
need to be continued beyond going TAFs. Otherwise, winds will
become sely to sly with gusts to at least 25 kts. Winds will
become swly late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Strong and gusty sely to sly winds expected
today. Main threat for precip remains late this afternoon thru the
evening hrs. Precip may need to be continued beyond going TAF with
future updates. Winds will become swly late tonight.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Observations this morning at the area terminals have been
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall
trend throughout the TAF period is for this teetering to continue,
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240904
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240904
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240904
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240904
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...Rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today...

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early AM,
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the
GoMex remains uninhibited. Impressive PWAT values of 1.54 inches
from TOP`s 00Z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings,
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it.
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the
holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day.
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way
into the area and with run after run of model soundings
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface-
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created.

Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday,
welcoming back at least chance PoPs to the forecast. For the rest
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region
and PWAT values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming
week. This equates to mentionable PoPs throughout the rest of the
forecast period, but doesn`t equate to a washout throughout the
week.

Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed
by some, the caveat is that it`ll feel humid outdoors with
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper
50s to 60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Light to moderate rain had moved into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri with rainfall rates approaching and 3/4 to 1 inch
per hour. A strong low level jet and ample deep layer moisture
with PW values around 1.5" were noted on the 00z SGF sounding.
Models continue to bring increasing moisture with PW`s up to 2"
across the region through most of today. As a result, flooding was
ongoing in portions of southeastern Kansas and additional flooding
is expected through today as rain continues to develop across
Oklahoma and spread into the region.

There will also be a limited risk for some winds gust in excess of
50mph with any line segments that bow towards the north or
northeast as they will be able to take advantage of the 0-3km bulk
shear values around 35-40kts. If instability were to become a
little stronger than currently expected the winds may be a bit
stronger producing an elevated severe storm risk.

The band of heaviest rainfall was just east of Joplin early this
morning and should continue to slide slowly east this morning.
Still thinking though that the best chances for heavy rain and
flooding resides west of Highway 65 and will continue the Flash
Flood Watch currently out through the day today and tonight into
Monday morning.

Rainfall totals between 2-3" are still expected with some local
areas exceeding the 3" mark possible. With continued southerly
winds, warm temperatures in the 70s will continue today despite the
rain and cloud cover. With the WAA and moisture advection
continuing overnight, tonight`s lows will fall only slightly into
the 60s.

Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected late
today and into tonight as another shortwave swings around the
upper low over the plains and another LLJ impinges on the Ozarks
region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Models have hinted the last few runs for a potential dry period
from Monday morning through around sunset as the region gets dry
slotted. At this point see no reason to dispute this though a few
light showers or sprinkles may occur. This may be a welcome break
in the rain just as another upper level wave moves across the
plains and brings the next round of rain into the Ozarks for the
overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This storm
system looks as though it will affect areas generally east of
Highway 65 however. The rainfall amounts with this next system may
be enough to produce another round of flooding to the east of
Highway 65 during this period, but held off on any headlines until
we see what the current system does and what models do for the
east with the next run.

For the remainder of the week and into next weekend, several more
rounds of rain are expected on a daily basis as the upper level
pattern remains active and the surface and mid level flow continue
to bring moisture into the region from the Gulf. In all, the week
ahead looks to be a cloudy, wet, and dreary one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gagan








000
FXUS63 KLSX 240820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240820
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240539 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Rainfall is underway across the region as low level jet continues
to increase overhead. Will be closely monitoring how areas of
convection from the Midwest southward to the Gulf coast behave
over the next few hours. With the low level jet focusing to our
north, better low level theta-e advection will focus to our north
with time. Convection over Texas may have a tendency to interfere
with development further north. It is interesting to note the
cloud top warming over Oklahoma during the past few hours, and
what affect this may have on our heavy rain set up.

Over the next few hours, convective elements developing over
northeastern Oklahoma will continue to stream north and train
over areas along and west of the I-49 corridor. This is the area
of biggest concern for flooding overnight. To this point, light to
moderate rain has affected this area, but rainfall rates will be
increasing over the next hour or so and warnings may be necessary.

The risk for severe storms remains low the rest of tonight. We
will struggle to see instability increase, with MUCAPE nearing 500
J/kg by daybreak. That said, the low level jet is strong and a
rogue 40-50mph localized wind gust will be possible over far
southwestern portions of the outlook area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240539 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Rainfall is underway across the region as low level jet continues
to increase overhead. Will be closely monitoring how areas of
convection from the Midwest southward to the Gulf coast behave
over the next few hours. With the low level jet focusing to our
north, better low level theta-e advection will focus to our north
with time. Convection over Texas may have a tendency to interfere
with development further north. It is interesting to note the
cloud top warming over Oklahoma during the past few hours, and
what affect this may have on our heavy rain set up.

Over the next few hours, convective elements developing over
northeastern Oklahoma will continue to stream north and train
over areas along and west of the I-49 corridor. This is the area
of biggest concern for flooding overnight. To this point, light to
moderate rain has affected this area, but rainfall rates will be
increasing over the next hour or so and warnings may be necessary.

The risk for severe storms remains low the rest of tonight. We
will struggle to see instability increase, with MUCAPE nearing 500
J/kg by daybreak. That said, the low level jet is strong and a
rogue 40-50mph localized wind gust will be possible over far
southwestern portions of the outlook area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240539 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Rainfall is underway across the region as low level jet continues
to increase overhead. Will be closely monitoring how areas of
convection from the Midwest southward to the Gulf coast behave
over the next few hours. With the low level jet focusing to our
north, better low level theta-e advection will focus to our north
with time. Convection over Texas may have a tendency to interfere
with development further north. It is interesting to note the
cloud top warming over Oklahoma during the past few hours, and
what affect this may have on our heavy rain set up.

Over the next few hours, convective elements developing over
northeastern Oklahoma will continue to stream north and train
over areas along and west of the I-49 corridor. This is the area
of biggest concern for flooding overnight. To this point, light to
moderate rain has affected this area, but rainfall rates will be
increasing over the next hour or so and warnings may be necessary.

The risk for severe storms remains low the rest of tonight. We
will struggle to see instability increase, with MUCAPE nearing 500
J/kg by daybreak. That said, the low level jet is strong and a
rogue 40-50mph localized wind gust will be possible over far
southwestern portions of the outlook area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 240539 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Rainfall is underway across the region as low level jet continues
to increase overhead. Will be closely monitoring how areas of
convection from the Midwest southward to the Gulf coast behave
over the next few hours. With the low level jet focusing to our
north, better low level theta-e advection will focus to our north
with time. Convection over Texas may have a tendency to interfere
with development further north. It is interesting to note the
cloud top warming over Oklahoma during the past few hours, and
what affect this may have on our heavy rain set up.

Over the next few hours, convective elements developing over
northeastern Oklahoma will continue to stream north and train
over areas along and west of the I-49 corridor. This is the area
of biggest concern for flooding overnight. To this point, light to
moderate rain has affected this area, but rainfall rates will be
increasing over the next hour or so and warnings may be necessary.

The risk for severe storms remains low the rest of tonight. We
will struggle to see instability increase, with MUCAPE nearing 500
J/kg by daybreak. That said, the low level jet is strong and a
rogue 40-50mph localized wind gust will be possible over far
southwestern portions of the outlook area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 240428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Forecast for the most part on track and have only made small
adjustments based on latest radar trends and incorporating high
temporal res model output. Small notch of rain is expected to edge
the western edge of the CWA thru midnight with pcpn in its wake to
the S-SW expected to fill in, especially as line of storms pushes
east thru OK and contributes to an expansion of the area of
enhanced stratiform rain to the north. This should result in high
PoPs for an area roughly west of a line from UIN-COU for late
evening and overnight with minimal PoPs or dry elsewhere.

One exception which has some support amongst many of the short-
term models is the idea of isolated-scattered SHRA developing over
far SE MO around daybreak and moving north towards STL metro
Sunday morning. At this point, the models still agree on a general
expansion of SHRA/TSRA coverage as we head into the afternoon
hours.

TES

&&

.SYNOPSIS:
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The middle to upper levels of the atmosphere feature a deep trof
of low pressure centered over the Four-Corners Region with
resulting southwest flow downstream across the southern Plains.
Embedded shortwave in this flow continues to produce heavy showers
and thunderstorms across KS and OK. Further east, weak warm
advection and moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
warm front was responsible for isolated to widely scattered
showers across mainly southwest Missouri.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Tonight...
Main thrust of precipitation should remain just to the west of the
CWA through tomorrow morning with the highest PoPs and QPF
concentrated across our central and northeast MO counties. That
doesn`t mean it will be completlely dry though, as isolated to
scattered showers cannot be ruled out as far east as the Mississippi
River as the 850mb warm front lifts north.

Sunday...
Appears that the first round of precipitation should pull northeast
of central and northeast MO during the morning hours with a threat
of renewed thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening
areawide. Have maintained general trend of chance/sct PoP increasing
to likely during the afternoon, especially west of I-55. Believe
there will be enough dry time for temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Sunday Night...
Not sure exactly how Sunday night will play out, as it will depend
on convective trends during the afternoon and evening. Model
guidance depicts a decent shortwave moving northeast across the area
which would make one think there should be some pretty good coverage
of precipitation. I have kept a blanket of categorical PoPs based on
pattern recognition more than anything.

Memorial Day...
At this point it looks like the vast majority of the area will be
dry on Memorial Day as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area and
we are located in area of subsidence for the daylight hours. I
suppose I can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing since
we are still in southwest flow aloft and will be quite unstable, but
chances are pretty low since there is no obvious trigger.
Temperatures should be quite warm for the unofficial start of summer
with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday night and Tuesday...
Next shortwave in the southwest flow parade will bring a renewed
threat of showers and thunderstorms to the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures may struggle some on Tuesday with cloud cover
and expected rain coverage, so knocked anticipated highs down a few
degrees across the southeastern half of the CWA.

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

The pattern looks to remain quite active with southwest flow
expected through the period. Each shortwave will bring with it a
chance of thunderstorms and temperatures should remain warm, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

Mid-high level clouds will continue across the area late tonight
with at least light showers moving through COU late tonight and
possibly into UIN towards morning. Could not rule out sprinkles in
the St Louis metro area late tonight, but the better chance of
showers/storms should hold off until Sunday afternoon and night as
a sly low level jet moves through the area. Prevailing cloud
ceilings will also lower on Sunday, likely into the MVFR catagory
in UIN and COU and down to MVFR or at least low end VFR in the St
Louis metro area by afternoon. Sely surface wind will continue
late tonight, becoming relatively strong and gusty from a s-sely
direction on Sunday.

Specifics for KSTL: Prevailing VFR mid level cloudiness late
tonight, then the ceiling will lower into the MVFR or low end VFR
catagory by Sunday afternoon. May be some sprinkles late tonight
from mid level clouds, but the better threat of showers/storms
should occur Sunday afternoon and night. Sely surface wind
late tonight will strengthen and become gusty by late Sunday
morning or afternoon from a s-sely direction.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240413
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240413
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240413
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240413
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Initial warm air advection shwrs/iso storms now developing across far
southwestern portions of our CWA this afternoon...all in advance of
main warn front which still resides down across the Southern Plains.
To our west...all eyes on a line of convection which has been in
place much of the morning and now extends from near Topeka south
into central Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas. Speed/distance tool
would suggest this activity to work into the greater KC area shortly
after 7 PM if initial movement and speed are maintained. Once it does
move in...a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall is
expected...with additional energy expected to arrive overnight as
an MCV from the west Texas/southwest Oklahoma activity tracks north
with time. As has been highlighted in recent days...atmospheric
moisture content remains very high (PWATs 2-3 standard deviations
above normal) and a strengthening low-level jet overnight will lead
to increased moisture convergence across the lower Missouri
Vly...especially from 6z onwards. The end result will likely be
rainfall totals in the 1-2" range across portions of the area by 12z
Sunday (especially west of Route 65). Latest forecast soundings for
the area show a few hundred joules of elevated CAPE overnight which
should support weak convection as activity intensifies. Convective
rainfall rates combined with anomalously high atmospheric moisture
should lead to efficient rainfall production as warm cloud layer
depths remain in excess of 10kft. See absolutely no reason to change
the flash flood watch at this point...and later shifts may need to
consider expanding once trends become better established with
current/future convection.

No real change to the line of thinking for Sunday as the day looks
very wet and unsettled. Initial round of moderate to locally heavy
rains should be pulling off to our north Sunday morning...however
latest NAM and GFS models continue to show redeveloping shwrs/storms
by early afternoon across the western CWA as a weak sfc and 850-hPa
low center track north along a density discontinuity in place along
the Missouri/Kansas border. Additionally...next upstream shortwave
expected to approach the area during the afternoon hrs as main
western U.S. trough ejects into the central High Plains. With no
change in airmass expected...rainfall tomorrow should remain highly
efficient which combined with slightly better instability...will
support a continued flood threat through the day and evening hours.
If this develops as advertised...its conceivable to see another inch
along and west of Route 65...with lower amounts further east. Based
on everything listed above...main concerns remain focused on area
rivers and streams as many still remain high due to heavy rains last
week.

Light at the end of the tunnel finally begins to show itself late
Sunday night/early Monday as previously mentioned sfc low and
shortwave track north into the upper Mississippi Vly. While region
will reside solidly in the warm sector with no cold frontal
passage...latest model trends would suggest high atmospheric moisture
content will be scoured out to some degree following the passage of
said features Sunday night. Despite this...shwrs/storms look
possible by Monday afternoon especially across northwest
Missouri/northeast Kansas as next upstream upper wave approaches.
With a fair amount of instability in place...cannot rule out a few
strong/severe storms as better wind fields move in aloft.

Beyond this...much of next week continues to look unsettled with
repeated rounds for shwrs/storms just about each day. Main cold front
associated with western U.S. trough expected to approach the area
Tuesday night...and stall across the northern CWA by early Wednesday.
This feature will act as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection
before main feature passes later the week/early next weekend. If
there/s any silver lining to be had from what appears to be non-
stopped rain chances through next week...at least the grass will
stay green...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Moderate rain will continue to spread north northeast through at
least 12z at all TAF sites. Visibilities will be generally MVFR, but
could occasionally drop to IFR in periods of heavy rain. Ceilings
will progressively lower over the next few hours, likely lowering
into the IFR category by 09z. Rain will eventually push off to the
east but may not clear up entirely, possibly leaving a few very
isolated light showers for the remainder of Sunday. Surface winds
should remain 10-12 kts and prevent low-level wind shear concerns,
but winds at 2-3 kft will increase sharply to 40-50 kts over the
next few hours from the south southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Laflin






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