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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





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000
FXUS63 KLSX 230607
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1207 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: An approaching low pressure system will
bring widespread rainfall and IFR conditions to the area on
Sunday. Winds will become northwesterly behind a cold front
towards the end of the 24-hr TAF period at KUIN. Just beyond the
end of the TAF period, a brief period of light snow is possible
while precipitation is ending.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Despite several hours of
persistent light rainfall at night along with steadily increasing
surface dew points, ceilings have remained predominantly VFR at
the St. Louis metro area TAF sites over the last 6 hours. Most
perplexing. In any event, confidence in cig/vis trends is lower
during the first 0-6 hours of the TAF period compared to later,
when a strong low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall
and IFR conditions to the area. Conditions will deteriorate with
time, especially after 10-12z. Winds will become westerly to
northwesterly and increase behind a cold front towards the end of
the 30-hr TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230607
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1207 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: An approaching low pressure system will
bring widespread rainfall and IFR conditions to the area on
Sunday. Winds will become northwesterly behind a cold front
towards the end of the 24-hr TAF period at KUIN. Just beyond the
end of the TAF period, a brief period of light snow is possible
while precipitation is ending.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Despite several hours of
persistent light rainfall at night along with steadily increasing
surface dew points, ceilings have remained predominantly VFR at
the St. Louis metro area TAF sites over the last 6 hours. Most
perplexing. In any event, confidence in cig/vis trends is lower
during the first 0-6 hours of the TAF period compared to later,
when a strong low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall
and IFR conditions to the area. Conditions will deteriorate with
time, especially after 10-12z. Winds will become westerly to
northwesterly and increase behind a cold front towards the end of
the 30-hr TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 230545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 230545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 230545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning
hours. Winds will gradually transition to NW as a cold front makes
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very
end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KSGF 230307
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
907 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KLSX 230046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Conditions may initially bounce between
MVFR and VFR early in the TAF period, but any improvement to VFR should
be temporary based on a broader cig/vis analysis and moisture
forecasts. An approaching low pressure system will bring
widespread rain to KCOU and KUIN on Sunday, and conditions are
expected to fall to IFR. Precipitation should end with the passage
of a cold front beyond the end of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: An area of rain showers was moving
northeastwards across the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. Ceilings will probably bounce between VFR and MVFR
before falling solidly into MVFR with the arrival of the rain.
Much more widespread rain is expected on Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system, and conditions will likely fall to IFR during
this time. Rain should end on Sunday night with the arrival of a
cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Conditions may initially bounce between
MVFR and VFR early in the TAF period, but any improvement to VFR should
be temporary based on a broader cig/vis analysis and moisture
forecasts. An approaching low pressure system will bring
widespread rain to KCOU and KUIN on Sunday, and conditions are
expected to fall to IFR. Precipitation should end with the passage
of a cold front beyond the end of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: An area of rain showers was moving
northeastwards across the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. Ceilings will probably bounce between VFR and MVFR
before falling solidly into MVFR with the arrival of the rain.
Much more widespread rain is expected on Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system, and conditions will likely fall to IFR during
this time. Rain should end on Sunday night with the arrival of a
cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Conditions may initially bounce between
MVFR and VFR early in the TAF period, but any improvement to VFR should
be temporary based on a broader cig/vis analysis and moisture
forecasts. An approaching low pressure system will bring
widespread rain to KCOU and KUIN on Sunday, and conditions are
expected to fall to IFR. Precipitation should end with the passage
of a cold front beyond the end of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: An area of rain showers was moving
northeastwards across the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. Ceilings will probably bounce between VFR and MVFR
before falling solidly into MVFR with the arrival of the rain.
Much more widespread rain is expected on Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system, and conditions will likely fall to IFR during
this time. Rain should end on Sunday night with the arrival of a
cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 230046
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have made some refinements to the POPS tonight into early Sunday
morning. The main axis of rain/showers this evening will reside
across southeast MO across southwest and south central IL within
the warm moist conveyor belt and ahead of a subtle impulse in the
southwest flow aloft. Further north and northwest across northeast
and central MO the chance of precipitation appears rather low
given the lack of any forcing, and if any occurs it will likely be
isolated or in the form of sprinkles or drizzle. The precipitation
threat will ramp up overnight however in central and northeast MO,
especially after 08-09z with large scale ascent associated with a
shortwave currently over TX moves northeastward into the area and
low level flow backs refocusing the lift westward. Lift and
showers/rain associated with this wave will overspread the entire
area early-mid Sunday morning.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Conditions may initially bounce between
MVFR and VFR early in the TAF period, but any improvement to VFR should
be temporary based on a broader cig/vis analysis and moisture
forecasts. An approaching low pressure system will bring
widespread rain to KCOU and KUIN on Sunday, and conditions are
expected to fall to IFR. Precipitation should end with the passage
of a cold front beyond the end of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: An area of rain showers was moving
northeastwards across the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. Ceilings will probably bounce between VFR and MVFR
before falling solidly into MVFR with the arrival of the rain.
Much more widespread rain is expected on Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system, and conditions will likely fall to IFR during
this time. Rain should end on Sunday night with the arrival of a
cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 230005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers
remains well to the south of the CWA from central OK through south central
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the CWA.
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level
energy breaks away from the TX upper trough and heads northward.
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening PoPs so have
stripped them away for the most part.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 230003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 230003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 230003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As has been the case over the last 36 hours, flight categories
will continue to oscillate through Sunday. Weather models
continue to offer a variety of possible scenarios...and have been
performing rather poorly of late. Thus, this forecast was heavily
based on regional observations and radar trends for the next six
hours...and then a model consensus beyond six hours.

We are therefore expecting a brief improvement in flight conditions
to VFR this evening with a return to MVFR or IFR late tonight.
Rain showers will continue early this evening around Branson,
otherwise most of tonight will be dry with the exception of a few
late night showers. We are then expecting an area of rain with a
few embedded thunderstorms Sunday morning. MVFR can be expected
with this activity, with pockets of IFR also possible. Another
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will then develop
across western Missouri Sunday afternoon as a cold front
approaches.

Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight with surface
winds remaining brisk out of the south to southeast. Those winds
will shift to the west and then northwest from late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening behind that cold front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 222338
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Conditions may initially bounce between
MVFR and VFR early in the TAF period, but any improvement to VFR should
be temporary based on a broader cig/vis analysis and moisture
forecasts. An approaching low pressure system will bring
widespread rain to KCOU and KUIN on Sunday, and conditions are
expected to fall to IFR. Precipitation should end with the passage
of a cold front beyond the end of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: An area of rain showers was moving
northeastwards across the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF
issuance. Ceilings will probably bounce between VFR and MVFR
before falling solidly into MVFR with the arrival of the rain.
Much more widespread rain is expected on Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system, and conditions will likely fall to IFR during
this time. Rain should end on Sunday night with the arrival of a
cold front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222329
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MVFR conditions expected through the initial period. Ceilings will
continue to improve through Saturday evening but will fill back in
overnight as moisture steadily surges in from the south. Will see the
development of fog overnight as temperatures decrease with a period
of IFR ceiling heights. Cold front will make its arrival over the
terminals Sunday afternoon. Light rain showers along the boundary with
gusty NW winds will persist through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 222147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have added tempo groups for showers later this afternoon and early
this evening at the STL metro TAF sites as an area of showers over
southwest Missouri moves northeast. MVFR ceilings are expected
through 10-15Z when a steadier rain is expected to develop. Once
this steady rain moves into the area, IFR conditions are expected
on Sunday at all TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings between 2000-3000ft through
22Z. Then an area of showers will move into the terminal from the
southwest which may cause ceilings to fall below 2000ft into the
early evening hours. Then expect most of the night to be dry with
just scattered showers in the area before lower ceilings and more
widespread showers move into the area after 09Z, with steady rain
and IFR conditions moving into the area by mid morning Sunday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have added tempo groups for showers later this afternoon and early
this evening at the STL metro TAF sites as an area of showers over
southwest Missouri moves northeast. MVFR ceilings are expected
through 10-15Z when a steadier rain is expected to develop. Once
this steady rain moves into the area, IFR conditions are expected
on Sunday at all TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings between 2000-3000ft through
22Z. Then an area of showers will move into the terminal from the
southwest which may cause ceilings to fall below 2000ft into the
early evening hours. Then expect most of the night to be dry with
just scattered showers in the area before lower ceilings and more
widespread showers move into the area after 09Z, with steady rain
and IFR conditions moving into the area by mid morning Sunday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have added tempo groups for showers later this afternoon and early
this evening at the STL metro TAF sites as an area of showers over
southwest Missouri moves northeast. MVFR ceilings are expected
through 10-15Z when a steadier rain is expected to develop. Once
this steady rain moves into the area, IFR conditions are expected
on Sunday at all TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings between 2000-3000ft through
22Z. Then an area of showers will move into the terminal from the
southwest which may cause ceilings to fall below 2000ft into the
early evening hours. Then expect most of the night to be dry with
just scattered showers in the area before lower ceilings and more
widespread showers move into the area after 09Z, with steady rain
and IFR conditions moving into the area by mid morning Sunday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Scattered showers are already moving across the southern half the
CWA this afternoon in an area of modest 925-850mb moisture
convergence ahead of the trough currently over the southern High
Plains.  Expect rain to become more widespread late this afternoon
into the early evening hours over the southern two thirds of the CWA
as the showers currently over southwest Missouri continue to move
northeast into the area.  This is being forced by an area of
stronger low level moisture convergence that the HRRR shows moving
across the area between 22-03Z.   While there will still continue to
be scattered showers elsewhere behind this area through late
evening, it still appears that better chances for more widespread
rain will move in from the west after midnight.  By that time, large
scale ascent and moisture convergence will be increasing ahead of the
aforementioned southern Plains trough that will be ejecting
northeastward ahead of longwave trough.  With clouds and warm air
advection tonight, stayed with lows that were close to going
temperatures and MOS guidance.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected on Sunday as a southern
stream, negatively tilted shortwave moves from eastern TX
northeastward into the TN and OH Valley regions, while a northern
stream upper level trough/low moves slowly east southeastward
through the northern Plains.  The models were depicting upper level
divergence over our area between a strong upper level jet streak
across the southern Plains and a weaker upper level jet streak over
the Great Lakes region.  The models have some discrepencies as to
the exact track of the deepening surface low, but at this time it
appears that it will move northeastward through or just north of the
STL area around 00z Monday.  There will be ample instability for at
least isolated thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening,
especially across southeast MO and southwest IL.  Strong low level
cold air advection can be expected Sunday night after the passage of
the low and trailing cold front.  The threat for precipitation will
continue Sunday night as shortwaves rotate through our area south of
the main upper level low/trough over the northern Plains.  As the
colder air filters southeastward into the region the rain may change
over to light snow before ending late Sunday night/early Monday
morning across portions of northeast and central MO as well as west
central IL.  Most of the precipitation will shift east of our
forecast area by Monday, although there may be some lingering light
snow or flurries mainly across west central IL.  Much colder
temperatures can be expected for Monday, with nearly steady
temperatures, mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s as the NAM and
ECMWF models drop the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to STL.
The GFS model is even colder and quicker bringing the colder air
southeastward into our forecast area.  An unseasonably cold period
is expected through Tuesday night as a large amplitude positively
tilted upper level trough moves eastward through the central US.
The GFS and ECMWF models are still hinting at the possibility of a
northwest flow shortwave and associated weak surface low to bring a
quick shot of rain/snow to our area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  The models, particularly the GFS are not as cold for
Thanksgiving Day with the coldest air remaining just north of our
forecast area, although a strong surface ridge is still forecast to
build southeastward into the region from the northern Plains on
Thanksgiving.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have added tempo groups for showers later this afternoon and early
this evening at the STL metro TAF sites as an area of showers over
southwest Missouri moves northeast. MVFR ceilings are expected
through 10-15Z when a steadier rain is expected to develop. Once
this steady rain moves into the area, IFR conditions are expected
on Sunday at all TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings between 2000-3000ft through
22Z. Then an area of showers will move into the terminal from the
southwest which may cause ceilings to fall below 2000ft into the
early evening hours. Then expect most of the night to be dry with
just scattered showers in the area before lower ceilings and more
widespread showers move into the area after 09Z, with steady rain
and IFR conditions moving into the area by mid morning Sunday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
254 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 222054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
254 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KLSX 221835
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have updated forecast to include area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms that have moved into southeast Missouri as well as
far southwest Illinois. HRRR is also showing that area of showers
over far southwest Missouri will move into east central Missouri
and adjacent parts of Illinois late this afternoon and early this
evening. Increased chances to likely in both these locations.
Temperatures have already climbed into upper 50s and lower 60s in
most areas, so have increased high temperatures accordingly.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall forecast trends still looking pretty good, and main
changes will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Have added tempo groups for showers later this afternoon and early
this evening at the STL metro TAF sites as an area of showers over
southwest Missouri moves northeast. MVFR ceilings are expected
through 10-15Z when a steadier rain is expected to develop. Once
this steady rain moves into the area, IFR conditions are expected
on Sunday at all TAF sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect ceilings between 2000-3000ft through
22Z. Then an area of showers will move into the terminal from the
southwest which may cause ceilings to fall below 2000ft into the
early evening hours. Then expect most of the night to be dry with
just scattered showers in the area before lower ceilings and more
widespread showers move into the area after 09Z, with steady rain
and IFR conditions moving into the area by mid morning Sunday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KEAX 221728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 221728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept tafs dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for sites along I-70 corridor
while KUIN remains MVFR. Better chances of rain to move in after
06z Sunday with cigs lowering back down to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to
persist through 14z Saturday before mixing out. Winds then will
persist from the south through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept taf dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for metro area. Better chances
of rain to move in after 09z Sunday with cigs lowering back down
to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to persist through 14z Saturday before
mixing out. Winds then will persist from the south through the
forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 221208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept tafs dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for sites along I-70 corridor
while KUIN remains MVFR. Better chances of rain to move in after
06z Sunday with cigs lowering back down to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to
persist through 14z Saturday before mixing out. Winds then will
persist from the south through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept taf dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for metro area. Better chances
of rain to move in after 09z Sunday with cigs lowering back down
to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to persist through 14z Saturday before
mixing out. Winds then will persist from the south through the
forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 221208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept tafs dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for sites along I-70 corridor
while KUIN remains MVFR. Better chances of rain to move in after
06z Sunday with cigs lowering back down to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to
persist through 14z Saturday before mixing out. Winds then will
persist from the south through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept taf dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for metro area. Better chances
of rain to move in after 09z Sunday with cigs lowering back down
to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to persist through 14z Saturday before
mixing out. Winds then will persist from the south through the
forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 221208
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept tafs dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for sites along I-70 corridor
while KUIN remains MVFR. Better chances of rain to move in after
06z Sunday with cigs lowering back down to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to
persist through 14z Saturday before mixing out. Winds then will
persist from the south through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Initial wave of rain has moved out of region but still have widely
scattered showers. However, coverage is spotty so kept taf dry
through today and early this evening. Otherwise, clouds to remain
over region. Cigs have lifted to VFR for metro area. Better chances
of rain to move in after 09z Sunday with cigs lowering back down
to mvfr. As for winds, LLWS to persist through 14z Saturday before
mixing out. Winds then will persist from the south through the
forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 221147
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Recent ceilings have generally been
mvfr/low end vfr, and in general guidance and progged soundings
lower ceilings a bit, but generally keep them in the mvfr cat for
much of the taf period. Will see some occasional light
rain showers. Toward the end of the taf period after 23/06z, it
looks like a better setup beginning to develop for low ceilings
with increased low level moisture south of I-44 with increased
chances for showers as well. An approaching front will still be
west of the taf sites by the end of the taf period, and will
maintain gusty s-se winds and low level wind shear where
appropriate.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KEAX 221145
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
545 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A combination of IFR to LIFR conditions are prevailing at the
terminals early this morning as low clouds and drizzle dominate the
region. These restrictive conditions will likely improve towards the
noon time hour into the low end of the MVFR range for the afternoon.
Conditions will likely deteriorate again this evening, but confidence on
how far down to push the flight category is a bit low. Therefore have
left conditions on the low end edge of MVFR, but think IFR conditions
might develop later in the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect surface
winds to remain from the south through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220954
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 220925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Main area of precipitation has moved out of region, though there is
some widely scattered activity as well as drizzle over northern
portions of forecast area early this morning. Next shortwave to
slide northeast through forecast area today, but precipitation will
continue to be scattered in nature. Some elevated instability over
southern portions of region this afternoon, so still could see
isolated thunder in this area. Otherwise, just scattered showers
under cloudy skies. Temperatures to be near normal or just above
normal in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

(Tonight-Monday)

Overall foreast trends still looking pretty good, and main changes
will be an attempt to fine-tune these trends.

This afternoon`s expected scattered coverage will likely linger into
this evening, but precipitation threat should ramp up considerably
late tonight and into Sunday as dynamics from strong upper system
working northeast from the southern plains and increasing moisture
begin to come into phase over the region.  Like the trends suggested
by 00z model QPFs that by Sunday morning main focus of rain will
stretch from southwest into northeast Missouri, with this band of
rain then expanding and working east during the day.  With the above
trends in mind, I`ve also attempted to minimize PoPs in our far e
counties until Sunday afternoon, as moisture and lift will be
somewhat limited in this part of the FA until then.  Although
instability is progged by all models to remain quite limited due to
saturated AMS I`ve continued a mention of thunder over the Ozarks
tonight and into the southeast half of the CWA on Sunday.

All of the 00z output is continuing to suggest that as dynamics with
the first system pushes into the Ohio Valley on Sunday evening, a
secondary area of precip should develop in its wake as another
shortwave drops into the base of the longwave trof.  Ptypes could
become an issue by late Sunday night on the back edge of this round
of precip as southward surge of cold air will be causing the
freezing levels to drop; however at this time not expecting any
major issues as forecast soundings suggest ams will get cold enough
to support snow just as the precip begins to wind down. Threat of
measurable precip with this secondary shortwave should come to an
end on Monday morning, although we do anticipate that some flurries
will linger into the afternoon over northern sections of the CWA
where cold advection and cyclonic low level flow will be the
strongest.

Today`s moderation in temps will persist into Sunday, but return
of cold air will mean more below average temperatures for the
start of the new week.

(Tuesday-Friday)

Surface ridge is expected to work across the region on Tuesday,
giving the FA chilly but dry late November weather. It still
appears that another fast moving shortwave digging into
progressive longwave trof will produce a quick shot of lift across
the region by Wednesday, but strongest dynamics will be north of
our area and moisture will be quite limited, so going slight
chance/low chance PoPs still look good at midweek.

Medium range solutions still leaving questions regarding sensible
weather trends heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  GFS is now
supported by the GEM in suggesting much less deepening of the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS.  This keeps baroclinicity
further north and allows the next fast moving shortwave to interact
with this thermal gradient, which would suggest a threat of some
light precip on Thanksgiving over northern sections of the CWA.
ECMWF is still deeper with the trof to our east, but its interesting
that its not as deep as was suggested in yesterday`s guidance, and
in fact has trended a bit more towards a flatter mid level flow.
For now will maintain dry forecast, but this trend will be
interesting to watch over the next few forecast cycles.

With the reintensification of the trof over the eastern CONUS temps
will remain well below normal during the latter half of the
upcoming work week, although exact extent of the cold will
obviously depend on the intensity of the trof. Highs primarily in
the 30s heading into Thursday and Friday look like a good starting
point for now.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220903
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220903
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 220610
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220610
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220610
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220610
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and for most of
tomorrow. Some improvement is possible at KCOU between 22/21z and
23/06z before conditions deteriorate again. Light drizzle is
possible overnight. Widespread rain is likely just beyond the end
of the 24-hr TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Although conditions may occasionally lift to
VFR for brief periods overnight, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
until mid to late morning. Light drizzle is also possible.
Widespread rain is likely towards the end of the 30-hr TAF period
and beyond.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220531
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much anticipated
in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle coupled with the
fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the morning while
increased chances of precipitation will commence in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220531
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much anticipated
in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle coupled with the
fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the morning while
increased chances of precipitation will commence in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220531
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much anticipated
in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle coupled with the
fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the morning while
increased chances of precipitation will commence in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220531
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much anticipated
in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle coupled with the
fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the morning while
increased chances of precipitation will commence in the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220413
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight, however there may be
occasional brief periods of low-end VFR ceilings. Widely scattered
rain showers are possible through the period, especially at KCOU and
KUIN. A 50kt southwesterly LLJ will likely produce LLWS conditions
at all terminals between 05-14z.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight,
however there may be occasional brief periods of low-end VFR
ceilings. Widely scattered rain showers are possible through the
period. The highest rain chances at KSTL are expected beyond the
end of the 30-hr TAF period. A 50kt southwesterly low level jet
will likely produce LLWS conditions between 05-14z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220413
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight, however there may be
occasional brief periods of low-end VFR ceilings. Widely scattered
rain showers are possible through the period, especially at KCOU and
KUIN. A 50kt southwesterly LLJ will likely produce LLWS conditions
at all terminals between 05-14z.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight,
however there may be occasional brief periods of low-end VFR
ceilings. Widely scattered rain showers are possible through the
period. The highest rain chances at KSTL are expected beyond the
end of the 30-hr TAF period. A 50kt southwesterly low level jet
will likely produce LLWS conditions between 05-14z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220413
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight, however there may be
occasional brief periods of low-end VFR ceilings. Widely scattered
rain showers are possible through the period, especially at KCOU and
KUIN. A 50kt southwesterly LLJ will likely produce LLWS conditions
at all terminals between 05-14z.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight,
however there may be occasional brief periods of low-end VFR
ceilings. Widely scattered rain showers are possible through the
period. The highest rain chances at KSTL are expected beyond the
end of the 30-hr TAF period. A 50kt southwesterly low level jet
will likely produce LLWS conditions between 05-14z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 220413
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Weak lift and mid level moisture associated with a low-amplitude shortwave
currently located in western MO combined with lift via a southwesterly
LLJ has generated some showers this evening. These showers were
currenly located to the west of the MS river across southwest and
south central IL, moving to the northeast at 30-35 kts. The showers
should exit the CWA by midnight as the shortwave continues to
migrate eastward in the west-southwest flow aloft, also taking the
mid level moisture with it. In its wake during the overnight
hours, the atmosphere will be bottom heavy with moisture confined
to the low levels. This moisture stratification along with continued
weak ascent via low level WAA would support patchy light rain or
drizzle. Accordingly I have lowered pops a bit and refined the
precipitation mode.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight, however there may be
occasional brief periods of low-end VFR ceilings. Widely scattered
rain showers are possible through the period, especially at KCOU and
KUIN. A 50kt southwesterly LLJ will likely produce LLWS conditions
at all terminals between 05-14z.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight,
however there may be occasional brief periods of low-end VFR
ceilings. Widely scattered rain showers are possible through the
period. The highest rain chances at KSTL are expected beyond the
end of the 30-hr TAF period. A 50kt southwesterly low level jet
will likely produce LLWS conditions between 05-14z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KEAX 220321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 220321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Trimmed back overnight PoPs as deeper moisture as noted in IR
satellite imagery and radar returns is peeling off to the northeast.
00z NAM and RUC h7 condensation pressure deficit progs support this
as does the miniscuel reflectivity returns on the HRRR. Bufr
soundings are more supportive of drizzle forming overnight. Will
stratify PoPs with best chances for rain over the southeast 1/3 of
the CWA. Deeper moisture doesn`t arrive from teh southwest until
later Saturday afternoon so until then think low chance PoPs the best
one can do.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220007
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220007
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220007
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 220007
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Abundant low level moisture will remain over the region ahead of a
warm front and approaching upper level disturbance. We are
expecting IFR and LIFR conditions to persist around Branson into
at least early Saturday morning...if not longer. Ceilings around
Springfield and Branson are a tougher call as weather models offer
a variety of forecasts. Upstream observations and a recently
released weather balloon indicate that moisture has increased
significantly between 700 and 1500 feet AGL around Springfield.
While downslope flow off the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau
will counteract the potential for IFR, we feel that enough
moisture is present for IFR later this evening at Springfield.
Ceilings at Joplin are expected to remain in the MVFR category for
most of tonight, but may approach IFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
then expected at Springfield and Joplin on Saturday. Scattered
showers will also develop across the region with the approach of
that disturbance. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southeast winds will
slowly turn around to southerly later tonight and Saturday. Low
level wind shear conditions will also continue into early Saturday
as a low level jet stream remains over the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 212356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 212356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cigs and fog will be the primary concerns. An area of dense fog and
LIFR cigs over central KS lines up well with the latest HRRR and SREF
short range models and they spread LIFR cigs/dense fog into northwest
MO later this evening and eventually across all of northern MO.
Appears the deeper moisture advecting into west central and central
MO will result in mainly a lowering of cigs to IFR/LIFR overnight and
ward off the dense fog. Depth of moisture will maintain cloud cover
with improvement only to MVFR in the afternoon.

Precipitation will be light and limited to mostly patchy and
intermittent drizzle overnight. Showers will be more likely east of
the terminals from southwest into central MO, decreasing in coverage
to isolated towards the MO/KS state line.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KLSX 212350
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
550 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight, however there may be
occasional brief periods of low-end VFR ceilings. Widely scattered
rain showers are possible through the period, especially at KCOU and
KUIN. A 50kt southwesterly LLJ will likely produce LLWS conditions
at all terminals between 05-14z.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight,
however there may be occasional brief periods of low-end VFR
ceilings. Widely scattered rain showers are possible through the
period. The highest rain chances at KSTL are expected beyond the
end of the 30-hr TAF period. A 50kt southwesterly low level jet
will likely produce LLWS conditions between 05-14z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 212350
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
550 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight, however there may be
occasional brief periods of low-end VFR ceilings. Widely scattered
rain showers are possible through the period, especially at KCOU and
KUIN. A 50kt southwesterly LLJ will likely produce LLWS conditions
at all terminals between 05-14z.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR cigs are expected to prevail overnight,
however there may be occasional brief periods of low-end VFR
ceilings. Widely scattered rain showers are possible through the
period. The highest rain chances at KSTL are expected beyond the
end of the 30-hr TAF period. A 50kt southwesterly low level jet
will likely produce LLWS conditions between 05-14z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 212150
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Low based VFR or high MVFR will continue to move northeast across
the area this afternoon. Rain will begin to move into the area
later this afternoon into the evening hours, though the coverage
is not expected to great enough to warrant more than VCSH at this
point. Later this evening and overnight, a low level jet is
expected to develop over the region which will bring LLWS
conditions at all of the airports. These conditions will last
until around 14Z Saturday morning. Then low based VFR or high MVFR
are expected during Saturday with a low chance of rain.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect mainly low VFR conditions through the
day today until this evening when MVFR ceilings move into the area
with a chance of rain. Expect LLWS conditions overnight with
persistent MVFR ceilings before ceilings rise to VFR during the
day with a continued low chance of rain.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 212150
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Low based VFR or high MVFR will continue to move northeast across
the area this afternoon. Rain will begin to move into the area
later this afternoon into the evening hours, though the coverage
is not expected to great enough to warrant more than VCSH at this
point. Later this evening and overnight, a low level jet is
expected to develop over the region which will bring LLWS
conditions at all of the airports. These conditions will last
until around 14Z Saturday morning. Then low based VFR or high MVFR
are expected during Saturday with a low chance of rain.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect mainly low VFR conditions through the
day today until this evening when MVFR ceilings move into the area
with a chance of rain. Expect LLWS conditions overnight with
persistent MVFR ceilings before ceilings rise to VFR during the
day with a continued low chance of rain.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 212150
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Low based VFR or high MVFR will continue to move northeast across
the area this afternoon. Rain will begin to move into the area
later this afternoon into the evening hours, though the coverage
is not expected to great enough to warrant more than VCSH at this
point. Later this evening and overnight, a low level jet is
expected to develop over the region which will bring LLWS
conditions at all of the airports. These conditions will last
until around 14Z Saturday morning. Then low based VFR or high MVFR
are expected during Saturday with a low chance of rain.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect mainly low VFR conditions through the
day today until this evening when MVFR ceilings move into the area
with a chance of rain. Expect LLWS conditions overnight with
persistent MVFR ceilings before ceilings rise to VFR during the
day with a continued low chance of rain.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 212150
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Will continue the chance of light rain as low level moisture
convergence and large scale ascent increases ahead of shortwave
trough currently moving towards us across the central Plains.  There
are two small areas of rain that have developed ahead of this
system...one over west central Missouri which will move into central
and northeast Missouri later this afternoon and a second over
northern Arkansas which will move into southeast Missouri.  Rain
chances will increase areawide this evening as aforementioned trough
moves across Missouri and Illinois.  Chances will continue through
the night as a 50kt low level jet sets up over the region which will
provide more low level moisture convergence.  At this time it still
appears that precipitation from this event will be mostly liquid as
dewpoints are steadily rising as rain moves into the area.  Both the
HRRR and RUC are showing that the surface wet-bulb temperatures will
be at or above freezing during the onset of precipitation through
early this evening with temperatures continuing to rise through the
late evening hours.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

At least scattered light showers can be expected Saturday and
Saturday night due to low-mid level warm air advection and as a
southwesterly low level jet continues to bring low level moisture
into the area.  The best chance of rain along with the highest
rainfall amounts should occur on Sunday as a southern stream
negatively tilted shortwave moves through the southern Plains and
into the TN Valley region, while an upper level low moves
southeastward into the northern Plains.  There will be upper level
divergence over our area between an upper level jet streak across
the southern Plains and another upper level jet streak across the
Great Lakes region.  A surface low will develop and deepen as it
moves northeastward through the St Louis area around 00z Monday.
There should be at least isolated thunderstorms across portion sof
central and southeast MO and southwest IL.  Temperatures will be
much warmer this weekend and above normal for a change.  Much of the
precipitation should shift east of our forecast area Sunday night as
colder and drier air filters southeastward into the region behind
the surface low and trailing cold front.  There may be some
lingering precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning as
shortwaves move through the area south of the upper level low which
will progress slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region.  The rain
may change over to some light snow across northeast MO and west
central IL late Sunday night and Monday as colder air continues to
advect into the region.  Temperatures will return to below normal
values beginning Monday with both the GFS and ECMWF models dropping
the -8 degree C 850 mb isotherm down to STL by 18z Monday.  Below
normal temperatures are expected from Monday through Thanksgiving
with little if any precipitation as a deep upper level trough moves
slowly eastward through the central US.  The ECMWF model does drop a
northwest flow, clipper type shortwave and associated weak surface
low southeastward through our area which could bring the potential
for a brief period of snow on Wednesday, but the GFS is much weaker
with this feature and only has very light QPF.  A strong surface
ridge will build southeastward into MO for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving Day with unseasonably cold temperatures expected.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Low based VFR or high MVFR will continue to move northeast across
the area this afternoon. Rain will begin to move into the area
later this afternoon into the evening hours, though the coverage
is not expected to great enough to warrant more than VCSH at this
point. Later this evening and overnight, a low level jet is
expected to develop over the region which will bring LLWS
conditions at all of the airports. These conditions will last
until around 14Z Saturday morning. Then low based VFR or high MVFR
are expected during Saturday with a low chance of rain.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect mainly low VFR conditions through the
day today until this evening when MVFR ceilings move into the area
with a chance of rain. Expect LLWS conditions overnight with
persistent MVFR ceilings before ceilings rise to VFR during the
day with a continued low chance of rain.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 212109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream northward across the region, and
will persist through most of the TAF period. Light showers will lift
north and may impact TAF sites after 19z; however, vsbys should not
be significantly impacted by light rain. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR after 02z, and may briefly drop to LIFR after 06z. Light
fog and patchy drizzle are possible overnight, reducing visibilities
to around 4-5 sm. Ceilings should lift to around or slightly above
1000 ft by mid morning Saturday, and any lingering precipitation will
likely shift southeast of the terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 212109
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
309 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Main concern in the short term will be fog, stratus, and light
showers as a broad area of warm air advection continues across the
region. Without a strong focus for lift, any precipitation tonight
into Saturday should be fairly light throughout the region. Dense
fog looks likely mainly across eastern Kansas and northwest MO where
moisture will remain fairly shallow; farther to the southeast, low
stratus and continued isolated showers seem more likely. May need a
dense fog advisory in far western and northwestern portions of the
CWA tonight, but will wait to see how efficiently fog develops later
this evening. Another round of dense fog looks possible on Saturday
night across far northern MO and especially further to the north in
IA, with continued stratus to the south.

Rain will become more widespread for Sunday as a shortwave trough
lifts out of the southern Plains and into eastern MO, and a surface
low tightens up over central portions of the state. Rain is most
likely and potential precipitation totals are highest across far
eastern portions of the CWA, but at least some rainfall is likely as
far west as the KC metro during the daylight hours. Timing for the
exit of this system is still a little uncertain, but rain should be
tapering off by late Sunday evening into the early morning hours
Monday. A second system is still also expected to sweep in from the
northern Plains on Sunday, bringing colder air into northern MO by
late Sunday and into the remainder of the state on Monday. Rain may
briefly mix with or change over to snow in northern MO late Sunday
night or early Monday as the first system departs and cold air
surges in, but warm/wet ground and depleted moisture will prevent
any snow accumulation.

Colder temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday as the second
system continues to dive southeast and allows Canadian air to filter
into the central CONUS; then some brief warming is possible
Wednesday as that system departs. The latest 2 runs of both the EC
and GFS have finally come into much better alignment for Thursday
and Friday, indicating a rather cold but dry Thanksgiving, but a
quick warm up for Friday beyond the end of the period. Have removed
all PoPs beyond the weekend system, leaving the long-range forecast
period dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream northward across the region, and
will persist through most of the TAF period. Light showers will lift
north and may impact TAF sites after 19z; however, vsbys should not
be significantly impacted by light rain. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR after 02z, and may briefly drop to LIFR after 06z. Light
fog and patchy drizzle are possible overnight, reducing visibilities
to around 4-5 sm. Ceilings should lift to around or slightly above
1000 ft by mid morning Saturday, and any lingering precipitation will
likely shift southeast of the terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 212034
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours as strong
low level moisture advection continues. A few batches of light
showers will develop in a scattered/haphazard fashion through the
forecast period. For JLN/SGF...have maintained MVFR ceilings.
There is a risk for IFR at JLN but confidence is too low to
include at this time. Southeast winds are typically not conducive
to IFR ceilings. At BBG, MVFR ceilings will persist as well.
Guidance continues to strongly suggest a lowering to IFR, which is
supportive by climatology, and per the previous forecast we have
maintained IFR beginning by this evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 212034
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours as strong
low level moisture advection continues. A few batches of light
showers will develop in a scattered/haphazard fashion through the
forecast period. For JLN/SGF...have maintained MVFR ceilings.
There is a risk for IFR at JLN but confidence is too low to
include at this time. Southeast winds are typically not conducive
to IFR ceilings. At BBG, MVFR ceilings will persist as well.
Guidance continues to strongly suggest a lowering to IFR, which is
supportive by climatology, and per the previous forecast we have
maintained IFR beginning by this evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KLSX 211831
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Clouds continue to move northeast across the area at midday and
expect that most of the CWA will be cloudy by late afternoon.
Radar is showing that the rain is currently entering far western
Missouri at the moment. Expect rain chances to increase late this
afternoon into early this evening as low level moisture
convergence increases and ascent increase ahead of a shortwave
trough currently moving eastward over the central Plains.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Surface ridge to continue moving off to the east ahead of next
weather system. Winds to become southeasterly by midday as weak warm
front lifts north through area. This will bring in slightly warmer
temps to the region with temps rising above freezing most locations
by 18z. In the meantime, low level moisture will be on the increase,
but will take awhile to moisten the column as there is a lot of dry
air to overcome. Will see showers develop over southwestern and
southern Missouri and spread to the north and east, moving into
central MO and southern portions of forecast area by 17z.
Fortunately temps will be above freezing when the rain does move in
so no mixed precipitation expected. Precipitation will be scattered
in nature. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Rain chances should be on the increase as we head into the weekend
as moisture and dynamics slowly intensify over the region.   Having
a hard time pinning down too many specifics in PoP trends for
tonight and Saturday as models indicate weak, broad forcing and lift
along with a gradual but limited increase of moisture, so getting
the impression that a scattered/chance type PoP is the best way to
go for tonight, with model consensus indicating a slightly better
chance of rain over southern sections of the CWA by Saturday.  It`s
not totally out of the question that there could be a threat of some
freezing rain for a very brief period of time early this evening in
our far northern/northeast counties if precip becomes intense
enough to generate some evaporate cooling, but based on
conservative hourly temp trends believe any period of temps aob
32 would be quite brief.  Obviously, we will keep an eye on precip
and temp trends during the afternoon.

Certainly, greatest rain chances will be late Saturday night and
especially on Sunday, when main upper level system and associated
dynamics swing into the area from the southern Plains.  While
moisture increase may be a struggle tonight and into Saturday, by
early Sunday ams should be quite moist, with forecast soundings
indicating lower troposphere nearly saturated aob 500mb.  Because of
this moisture and strong lift have gone with categorical PoPs over
the entire area for Sunday.   Have also maintained mention of
thunder similar to what`s in going forecast, and although models are
suggesting some CAPE on Saturday and Saturday night in the elevated
warm advection regime, believe primary thunder threat will be
associated with the main system on Sunday.

Based on aforementioned lift and moisture this system should be a
decent rain producer across the region; widespread rains of 1 to 1.5
inches can be expected in the late Saturday night-Sunday time frame,
with isolated higher amounts certainly possible.

Another round of precip, albeit lighter, is expected on Sunday
night. Although main shortwave is forecast to push east of the
Mississippi River by early Sunday evening, there is good agreement
in the 00z models that strong shortwave digging into the central
CONUS in the wake of the first system will generate a band of
mid-level frontogenetical forcing that will produce a secondary area
of precip from sw MO into s IL.  Although this secondary band of
precip will be falling into a colder ams, at this time it appears
that temps will remain warm enough that it will remain liquid.
However, if precip where to become intense enough a drop in the
freezing level could make ptypes a bit more problematic in some
areas.

(Monday-Thursday)

Secondary area of precip should wind down from west to east on
Monday, but 00z medium range models are in fairly good agreement
that another fast moving shortwave will drop into the deepening long
wave trof over the central CONUS by Wednesday, resulting in a slight
chance of light snow over northern sections of the CWA.

Solutions diverge considerably by Thanksgiving, with ECMWF
indicating a deeper longwave trof over the Ohio Valley and a deeper
intrusion of cold air into our area, while GFS hints at a less
amplified upper air pattern which keeps the baroclinicity...and
potential overrunning precip threat...over our area.  For now have
maintained extended initialization guidance, which indicates some
low PoPs during this time.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Low based VFR or high MVFR will continue to move northeast across
the area this afternoon. Rain will begin to move into the area
later this afternoon into the evening hours, though the coverage
is not expected to great enough to warrant more than VCSH at this
point. Later this evening and overnight, a low level jet is
expected to develop over the region which will bring LLWS
conditions at all of the airports. These conditions will last
until around 14Z Saturday morning. Then low based VFR or high MVFR
are expected during Saturday with a low chance of rain.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect mainly low VFR conditions through the
day today until this evening when MVFR ceilings move into the area
with a chance of rain. Expect LLWS conditions overnight with
persistent MVFR ceilings before ceilings rise to VFR during the
day with a continued low chance of rain.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 211805
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Small batches of rain showers continue to develop across the
region. This activity is fighting a good bit of dry air, so
rainfall amounts will be on the light side and for the most part
more of a nuisance than anything of great quality. This general
theme of batches of light showers will persist through tonight and
into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours as strong
low level moisture advection continues. A few batches of light
showers will develop in a scattered/haphazard fashion through the
forecast period. For JLN/SGF...have maintained MVFR ceilings.
There is a risk for IFR at JLN but confidence is too low to
include at this time. Southeast winds are typically not conducive
to IFR ceilings. At BBG, MVFR ceilings will persist as well.
Guidance continues to strongly suggest a lowering to IFR, which is
supportive by climatology, and per the previous forecast we have
maintained IFR beginning by this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KSGF 211805
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Small batches of rain showers continue to develop across the
region. This activity is fighting a good bit of dry air, so
rainfall amounts will be on the light side and for the most part
more of a nuisance than anything of great quality. This general
theme of batches of light showers will persist through tonight and
into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours as strong
low level moisture advection continues. A few batches of light
showers will develop in a scattered/haphazard fashion through the
forecast period. For JLN/SGF...have maintained MVFR ceilings.
There is a risk for IFR at JLN but confidence is too low to
include at this time. Southeast winds are typically not conducive
to IFR ceilings. At BBG, MVFR ceilings will persist as well.
Guidance continues to strongly suggest a lowering to IFR, which is
supportive by climatology, and per the previous forecast we have
maintained IFR beginning by this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream northward across the region, and
will persist through most of the TAF period. Light showers will lift
north and may impact TAF sites after 19z; however, vsbys should not
be significantly impacted by light rain. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR after 02z, and may briefly drop to LIFR after 06z. Light
fog and patchy drizzle are possible overnight, reducing visibilities
to around 4-5 sm. Ceilings should lift to around or slightly above
1000 ft by mid morning Saturday, and any lingering precipitation will
likely shift southeast of the terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream northward across the region, and
will persist through most of the TAF period. Light showers will lift
north and may impact TAF sites after 19z; however, vsbys should not
be significantly impacted by light rain. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR after 02z, and may briefly drop to LIFR after 06z. Light
fog and patchy drizzle are possible overnight, reducing visibilities
to around 4-5 sm. Ceilings should lift to around or slightly above
1000 ft by mid morning Saturday, and any lingering precipitation will
likely shift southeast of the terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream northward across the region, and
will persist through most of the TAF period. Light showers will lift
north and may impact TAF sites after 19z; however, vsbys should not
be significantly impacted by light rain. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR after 02z, and may briefly drop to LIFR after 06z. Light
fog and patchy drizzle are possible overnight, reducing visibilities
to around 4-5 sm. Ceilings should lift to around or slightly above
1000 ft by mid morning Saturday, and any lingering precipitation will
likely shift southeast of the terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream northward across the region, and
will persist through most of the TAF period. Light showers will lift
north and may impact TAF sites after 19z; however, vsbys should not
be significantly impacted by light rain. Ceilings are expected to
lower to IFR after 02z, and may briefly drop to LIFR after 06z. Light
fog and patchy drizzle are possible overnight, reducing visibilities
to around 4-5 sm. Ceilings should lift to around or slightly above
1000 ft by mid morning Saturday, and any lingering precipitation will
likely shift southeast of the terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 211204
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
604 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Surface ridge to continue moving off to the east ahead of next
weather system. Winds to become southeasterly by midday as weak warm
front lifts north through area. This will bring in slightly warmer
temps to the region with temps rising above freezing most locations
by 18z. In the meantime, low level moisture will be on the increase,
but will take awhile to moisten the column as there is a lot of dry
air to overcome. Will see showers develop over southwestern and
southern Missouri and spread to the north and east, moving into
central MO and southern portions of forecast area by 17z.
Fortunately temps will be above freezing when the rain does move in
so no mixed precipitation expected. Precipitation will be scattered
in nature. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Rain chances should be on the increase as we head into the weekend
as moisture and dynamics slowly intensify over the region.   Having
a hard time pinning down too many specifics in PoP trends for
tonight and Saturday as models indicate weak, broad forcing and lift
along with a gradual but limited increase of moisture, so getting
the impression that a scattered/chance type PoP is the best way to
go for tonight, with model consensus indicating a slightly better
chance of rain over southern sections of the CWA by Saturday.  It`s
not totally out of the question that there could be a threat of some
freezing rain for a very brief period of time early this evening in
our far northern/northeast counties if precip becomes intense
enough to generate some evaporative cooling, but based on
conservative hourly temp trends believe any period of temps aob
32 would be quite brief.  Obviously, we will keep an eye on precip
and temp trends during the afternoon.

Certainly, greatest rain chances will be late Saturday night and
especially on Sunday, when main upper level system and associated
dynamics swing into the area from the southern Plains.  While
moisture increase may be a struggle tonight and into Saturday, by
early Sunday ams should be quite moist, with forecast soundings
indicating lower troposphere nearly saturated aob 500mb.  Because of
this moisture and strog lift have gone with categorical PoPs over
the entire area for Sunday.   Have also maintained mention of
thunder similar to what`s in going forecast, and although models are
suggesting some CAPE on Saturday and Saturday night in the elevated
warm advection regime, believe primary thunder threat will be
associated with the main system on Sunday.

Based on aforementioned lift and moisture this system should be a
decent rain producer across the region; widespread rains of 1 to 1.5
inches can be expected in the late Saturday night-Sunday time frame,
with isolated higher amounts certainly possible.

Another round of precip, albeit lighter, is expected on Sunday
night. Although main shortwave is forecast to push east of the
Mississippi River by early Sunday evening, there is good agreement
in the 00z models that strong shortwave digging into the central
CONUS in the wake of the first system will generate a band of
mid-level frontogenetical forcing that will produce a secondary area
of precip from sw MO into s IL.  Although this secondary band of
precip will be falling into a colder ams, at this time it appears
that temps will remain warm enough that it will remain liquid.
However, if precip where to become intense enough a drop in the
freezing level could make ptypes a bit more problematic in some
areas.

(Monday-Thursday)

Secondary area of precip should wind down from west to east on
Monday, but 00z medium range models are in fairly good agreement
that another fast moving shortwave will drop into the deepening long
wave trof over the central CONUS by Wendesday, resulting in a slight
chance of light snow over northern sections of the CWA.

Solutions diverge considerably by Thanksgiving, with ECMWF
indicating a deeper longwave trof over the Ohio Valley and a deeper
intrusion of cold air into our area, while GFS hints at a less
amplified upper air pattern which keeps the baroclinicity...and
potential overrunning precip threat...over our area.  For now have
maintained extended initialization guidance, which indicates some
low PoPs during this time.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Ahead of next weather system, winds have become easterly and will
veer to the southeast as a weak warm front lifts northward through
region today. SC deck continues to develop and slide north towards
taf sites. Low end VFR/high end MVFR cigs to move into KCOU by 18z,
then into metro area by 20z and KUIN by 22z. As for precipitation
chances, a lot of dry air to overcome so coverage will be
scattered through this evening. Probably a bit of a break in
activity late this evening through the overnight hours.

Specifics for KSTL:
Ahead of next weather system, winds have become easterly and will
veer to the southeast as a weak warm front lifts northward through
region today. SC deck continues to develop and slide north towards
taf sites. Low end VFR/high end MVFR cigs to move into metro area
by 20z. As for precipitation chances, a lot of dry air to
overcome so coverage will be scattered between 00z and 05z Saturday.
Probably a bit of a break in activity late this evening through
the overnight hours with more rain moving in by 14z Saturday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 211204
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
604 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Surface ridge to continue moving off to the east ahead of next
weather system. Winds to become southeasterly by midday as weak warm
front lifts north through area. This will bring in slightly warmer
temps to the region with temps rising above freezing most locations
by 18z. In the meantime, low level moisture will be on the increase,
but will take awhile to moisten the column as there is a lot of dry
air to overcome. Will see showers develop over southwestern and
southern Missouri and spread to the north and east, moving into
central MO and southern portions of forecast area by 17z.
Fortunately temps will be above freezing when the rain does move in
so no mixed precipitation expected. Precipitation will be scattered
in nature. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Rain chances should be on the increase as we head into the weekend
as moisture and dynamics slowly intensify over the region.   Having
a hard time pinning down too many specifics in PoP trends for
tonight and Saturday as models indicate weak, broad forcing and lift
along with a gradual but limited increase of moisture, so getting
the impression that a scattered/chance type PoP is the best way to
go for tonight, with model consensus indicating a slightly better
chance of rain over southern sections of the CWA by Saturday.  It`s
not totally out of the question that there could be a threat of some
freezing rain for a very brief period of time early this evening in
our far northern/northeast counties if precip becomes intense
enough to generate some evaporative cooling, but based on
conservative hourly temp trends believe any period of temps aob
32 would be quite brief.  Obviously, we will keep an eye on precip
and temp trends during the afternoon.

Certainly, greatest rain chances will be late Saturday night and
especially on Sunday, when main upper level system and associated
dynamics swing into the area from the southern Plains.  While
moisture increase may be a struggle tonight and into Saturday, by
early Sunday ams should be quite moist, with forecast soundings
indicating lower troposphere nearly saturated aob 500mb.  Because of
this moisture and strog lift have gone with categorical PoPs over
the entire area for Sunday.   Have also maintained mention of
thunder similar to what`s in going forecast, and although models are
suggesting some CAPE on Saturday and Saturday night in the elevated
warm advection regime, believe primary thunder threat will be
associated with the main system on Sunday.

Based on aforementioned lift and moisture this system should be a
decent rain producer across the region; widespread rains of 1 to 1.5
inches can be expected in the late Saturday night-Sunday time frame,
with isolated higher amounts certainly possible.

Another round of precip, albeit lighter, is expected on Sunday
night. Although main shortwave is forecast to push east of the
Mississippi River by early Sunday evening, there is good agreement
in the 00z models that strong shortwave digging into the central
CONUS in the wake of the first system will generate a band of
mid-level frontogenetical forcing that will produce a secondary area
of precip from sw MO into s IL.  Although this secondary band of
precip will be falling into a colder ams, at this time it appears
that temps will remain warm enough that it will remain liquid.
However, if precip where to become intense enough a drop in the
freezing level could make ptypes a bit more problematic in some
areas.

(Monday-Thursday)

Secondary area of precip should wind down from west to east on
Monday, but 00z medium range models are in fairly good agreement
that another fast moving shortwave will drop into the deepening long
wave trof over the central CONUS by Wendesday, resulting in a slight
chance of light snow over northern sections of the CWA.

Solutions diverge considerably by Thanksgiving, with ECMWF
indicating a deeper longwave trof over the Ohio Valley and a deeper
intrusion of cold air into our area, while GFS hints at a less
amplified upper air pattern which keeps the baroclinicity...and
potential overrunning precip threat...over our area.  For now have
maintained extended initialization guidance, which indicates some
low PoPs during this time.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Ahead of next weather system, winds have become easterly and will
veer to the southeast as a weak warm front lifts northward through
region today. SC deck continues to develop and slide north towards
taf sites. Low end VFR/high end MVFR cigs to move into KCOU by 18z,
then into metro area by 20z and KUIN by 22z. As for precipitation
chances, a lot of dry air to overcome so coverage will be
scattered through this evening. Probably a bit of a break in
activity late this evening through the overnight hours.

Specifics for KSTL:
Ahead of next weather system, winds have become easterly and will
veer to the southeast as a weak warm front lifts northward through
region today. SC deck continues to develop and slide north towards
taf sites. Low end VFR/high end MVFR cigs to move into metro area
by 20z. As for precipitation chances, a lot of dry air to
overcome so coverage will be scattered between 00z and 05z Saturday.
Probably a bit of a break in activity late this evening through
the overnight hours with more rain moving in by 14z Saturday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Mostly MVFR ceilings are in place at
all sites north of a warm front to start the taf period and will
continue them early in the taf period with occasional
sprinkles/light rain/drizzle. Progged soundings and SREF guidance
indicate some IFR ceilings will be possible at times, particularly
at KSGF and KBBG toward 21z, but all guidance brings ceilings up
at least somewhat late in the taf period with the warm front
pulling away to the north. Deeper moisture and lower ceilings late
in the taf period looks to be just west of the taf sites over
eastern KS/OK.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Mostly MVFR ceilings are in place at
all sites north of a warm front to start the taf period and will
continue them early in the taf period with occasional
sprinkles/light rain/drizzle. Progged soundings and SREF guidance
indicate some IFR ceilings will be possible at times, particularly
at KSGF and KBBG toward 21z, but all guidance brings ceilings up
at least somewhat late in the taf period with the warm front
pulling away to the north. Deeper moisture and lower ceilings late
in the taf period looks to be just west of the taf sites over
eastern KS/OK.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Mostly MVFR ceilings are in place at
all sites north of a warm front to start the taf period and will
continue them early in the taf period with occasional
sprinkles/light rain/drizzle. Progged soundings and SREF guidance
indicate some IFR ceilings will be possible at times, particularly
at KSGF and KBBG toward 21z, but all guidance brings ceilings up
at least somewhat late in the taf period with the warm front
pulling away to the north. Deeper moisture and lower ceilings late
in the taf period looks to be just west of the taf sites over
eastern KS/OK.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 211159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Mostly MVFR ceilings are in place at
all sites north of a warm front to start the taf period and will
continue them early in the taf period with occasional
sprinkles/light rain/drizzle. Progged soundings and SREF guidance
indicate some IFR ceilings will be possible at times, particularly
at KSGF and KBBG toward 21z, but all guidance brings ceilings up
at least somewhat late in the taf period with the warm front
pulling away to the north. Deeper moisture and lower ceilings late
in the taf period looks to be just west of the taf sites over
eastern KS/OK.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions will great the terminals this morning, but that might
be the last time for the weekend. Moisture moving up from the Gulf
Coast will bring low MVFR clouds to western Missouri late this
morning. This will also likely result in some scattered showers or
possibly some drizzle. Clouds will likely lower into the IFR range
tonight as the moisture keeps streaming north, pushing ceilings down
overnight. This also might result in mist/drizzle though the
overnight hours. Currently temperatures look warm enough to warrant
keeping any mention of freezing precipitation out of the terminals
for now. Otherwise, expect winds to remain generally from the
southeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions will great the terminals this morning, but that might
be the last time for the weekend. Moisture moving up from the Gulf
Coast will bring low MVFR clouds to western Missouri late this
morning. This will also likely result in some scattered showers or
possibly some drizzle. Clouds will likely lower into the IFR range
tonight as the moisture keeps streaming north, pushing ceilings down
overnight. This also might result in mist/drizzle though the
overnight hours. Currently temperatures look warm enough to warrant
keeping any mention of freezing precipitation out of the terminals
for now. Otherwise, expect winds to remain generally from the
southeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions will great the terminals this morning, but that might
be the last time for the weekend. Moisture moving up from the Gulf
Coast will bring low MVFR clouds to western Missouri late this
morning. This will also likely result in some scattered showers or
possibly some drizzle. Clouds will likely lower into the IFR range
tonight as the moisture keeps streaming north, pushing ceilings down
overnight. This also might result in mist/drizzle though the
overnight hours. Currently temperatures look warm enough to warrant
keeping any mention of freezing precipitation out of the terminals
for now. Otherwise, expect winds to remain generally from the
southeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions will great the terminals this morning, but that might
be the last time for the weekend. Moisture moving up from the Gulf
Coast will bring low MVFR clouds to western Missouri late this
morning. This will also likely result in some scattered showers or
possibly some drizzle. Clouds will likely lower into the IFR range
tonight as the moisture keeps streaming north, pushing ceilings down
overnight. This also might result in mist/drizzle though the
overnight hours. Currently temperatures look warm enough to warrant
keeping any mention of freezing precipitation out of the terminals
for now. Otherwise, expect winds to remain generally from the
southeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 211014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 211014
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
414 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early morning satellite imagery paints a messy picture for the
center of the Nation as several shortwave troughs are poised to
bring the Lower Missouri River Valley a bit of wet weather this
weekend. Specifically, water vapor imagery currently highlights a
few different shortwave trough that will be interacting through the
weekend, bringing us near normal temperatures along with some rain.

First shortwave trough is noted tracking across the Texas panhandle
this morning, with a reflected surface low across north central
Texas. IR satellite imagery and surface observations both show
decent moisture return from the Gulf early this morning as the
surface low wraps the moisture into Oklahoma. However, this self
same shortwave will likely prevent the moisture from racing much
farther north as the upper level trough continues to shift east into
a confluent flow aloft. This wont completely stop the moisture from
moving north, it will just take a little longer, inhibiting
saturation and ultimately slowing down the onset of precipitation.
Lift continues to look weak at best, but what there is will be the
result of isentropic accent from the persistent warm air advection.
This continues to look merely sufficient for drizzle and/or showers
today and into tonight with low accumulations totals. Also, the
slowly timing will likely leave surface temperatures warm enough to
warrant stripping out the mention of freezing drizzle. In fact, warm
air advection might be sufficient to force rising temperatures
across the region after midnight tonight.

A second shortwave trough is making landfall across the California
Coast, and will track farther south across Texas and ultimately
along the Gulf Coast late in the weekend. This next trough will help
keep the cloudy rainy conditions brought by the first trough in
place across the central Plains as the Gulf moisture transport keeps
working through the weekend. This will keep the pump primped for a
third shortwave trough that will move through the Northern Rockies
into the Plains States late in the weekend. This should keep
scattered showers a possibility through the day Saturday, though the
focus for highest POPs is still on Saturday night through Sunday as
the third trough digs into Plains States. Highest precipitation
amounts will likely be across southern and eastern Missouri.

After the passage of the third trough, and it associated cold front
Sunday afternoon and night, temperatures will quickly sink back well
below normal. These colder conditions will likely persist though the
first half of the next work week as a progressive, but broad, trough
slowly shifts east across the Nation. The northwest flow that this
slow moving trough will likely bring by the middle of next work week
may result in a fleeting potential for some quick bursts of snow
starting next Wednesday. Confidence is not high, but the potential
is there for Wednesday night through Thursday currently.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR conditions overnight will give way to building cloud cover
during the morning hours Friday as winds transition to southeasterly.
Scattered showers will commence in the early afternoon with MVFR
conditions expected initially. Further reduced ceilings and
visibilities may begin to come into play toward the end of the
forecast period as light drizzle edges in from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 210959
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
359 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Surface ridge to continue moving off to the east ahead of next
weather system. Winds to become southeasterly by midday as weak warm
front lifts north through area. This will bring in slightly warmer
temps to the region with temps rising above freezing most locations
by 18z. In the meantime, low level moisture will be on the increase,
but will take awhile to moisten the column as there is a lot of dry
air to overcome. Will see showers develop over southwestern and
southern Missouri and spread to the north and east, moving into
central MO and southern portions of forecast area by 17z.
Fortunately temps will be above freezing when the rain does move in
so no mixed precipitation expected. Precipitation will be scattered
in nature. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Rain chances should be on the increase as we head into the weekend
as moisture and dynamics slowly intensify over the region.   Having
a hard time pinning down too many specifics in PoP trends for
tonight and Saturday as models indicate weak, broad forcing and lift
along with a gradual but limited increase of moisture, so getting
the impression that a scattered/chance type PoP is the best way to
go for tonight, with model consensus indicating a slightly better
chance of rain over southern sections of the CWA by Saturday.  It`s
not totally out of the question that there could be a threat of some
freezing rain for a very brief period of time early this evening in
our far northern/northeast counties if precip becomes intense
enough to generate some evaporative cooling, but based on
conservative hourly temp trends believe any period of temps aob
32 would be quite brief.  Obviously, we will keep an eye on precip
and temp trends during the afternoon.

Certainly, greatest rain chances will be late Saturday night and
especially on Sunday, when main upper level system and associated
dynamics swing into the area from the southern Plains.  While
moisture increase may be a struggle tonight and into Saturday, by
early Sunday ams should be quite moist, with forecast soundings
indicating lower troposphere nearly saturated aob 500mb.  Because of
this moisture and strog lift have gone with categorical PoPs over
the entire area for Sunday.   Have also maintained mention of
thunder similar to what`s in going forecast, and although models are
suggesting some CAPE on Saturday and Saturday night in the elevated
warm advection regime, believe primary thunder threat will be
associated with the main system on Sunday.

Based on aforementioned lift and moisture this system should be a
decent rain producer across the region; widespread rains of 1 to 1.5
inches can be expected in the late Saturday night-Sunday time frame,
with isolated higher amounts certainly possible.

Another round of precip, albeit lighter, is expected on Sunday
night. Although main shortwave is forecast to push east of the
Mississippi River by early Sunday evening, there is good agreement
in the 00z models that strong shortwave digging into the central
CONUS in the wake of the first system will generate a band of
mid-level frontogenetical forcing that will produce a secondary area
of precip from sw MO into s IL.  Although this secondary band of
precip will be falling into a colder ams, at this time it appears
that temps will remain warm enough that it will remain liquid.
However, if precip where to become intense enough a drop in the
freezing level could make ptypes a bit more problematic in some
areas.

(Monday-Thursday)

Secondary area of precip should wind down from west to east on
Monday, but 00z medium range models are in fairly good agreement
that another fast moving shortwave will drop into the deepening long
wave trof over the central CONUS by Wendesday, resulting in a slight
chance of light snow over northern sections of the CWA.

Solutions diverge considerably by Thanksgiving, with ECMWF
indicating a deeper longwave trof over the Ohio Valley and a deeper
intrusion of cold air into our area, while GFS hints at a less
amplified upper air pattern which keeps the baroclinicity...and
potential overrunning precip threat...over our area.  For now have
maintained extended initialization guidance, which indicates some
low PoPs during this time.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected across the area overnight through
much of Friday morning. From mid morning through the afternoon,
deep southerly low-level flow will spread a large area of stratus
which current resides across the lower MS valley and Southern
Plains, to the north and northeastward across central and eastern
MO into western IL. Cigs heights will initially be in the low-end
VFR category, but will lower into the MVFR range during the afternoon
at KCOU, and by early evening at the St. Louis area terminals and
KUIN. With the onset of the lower cigs will also be a threat of
light rain/showers.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will persist overnight through at least mid
afternoon on Friday. Thereafter an area of stratus will spread
into the terminal from the south/southwest, initially with cig
heights in the low-end VFR range. MVFR cigs and light rain/showers
are expected beginning around 00z/22 Nov and continuing Friday night.

Glass

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 210959
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
359 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

Surface ridge to continue moving off to the east ahead of next
weather system. Winds to become southeasterly by midday as weak warm
front lifts north through area. This will bring in slightly warmer
temps to the region with temps rising above freezing most locations
by 18z. In the meantime, low level moisture will be on the increase,
but will take awhile to moisten the column as there is a lot of dry
air to overcome. Will see showers develop over southwestern and
southern Missouri and spread to the north and east, moving into
central MO and southern portions of forecast area by 17z.
Fortunately temps will be above freezing when the rain does move in
so no mixed precipitation expected. Precipitation will be scattered
in nature. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

(Tonight through Sunday)

Rain chances should be on the increase as we head into the weekend
as moisture and dynamics slowly intensify over the region.   Having
a hard time pinning down too many specifics in PoP trends for
tonight and Saturday as models indicate weak, broad forcing and lift
along with a gradual but limited increase of moisture, so getting
the impression that a scattered/chance type PoP is the best way to
go for tonight, with model consensus indicating a slightly better
chance of rain over southern sections of the CWA by Saturday.  It`s
not totally out of the question that there could be a threat of some
freezing rain for a very brief period of time early this evening in
our far northern/northeast counties if precip becomes intense
enough to generate some evaporative cooling, but based on
conservative hourly temp trends believe any period of temps aob
32 would be quite brief.  Obviously, we will keep an eye on precip
and temp trends during the afternoon.

Certainly, greatest rain chances will be late Saturday night and
especially on Sunday, when main upper level system and associated
dynamics swing into the area from the southern Plains.  While
moisture increase may be a struggle tonight and into Saturday, by
early Sunday ams should be quite moist, with forecast soundings
indicating lower troposphere nearly saturated aob 500mb.  Because of
this moisture and strog lift have gone with categorical PoPs over
the entire area for Sunday.   Have also maintained mention of
thunder similar to what`s in going forecast, and although models are
suggesting some CAPE on Saturday and Saturday night in the elevated
warm advection regime, believe primary thunder threat will be
associated with the main system on Sunday.

Based on aforementioned lift and moisture this system should be a
decent rain producer across the region; widespread rains of 1 to 1.5
inches can be expected in the late Saturday night-Sunday time frame,
with isolated higher amounts certainly possible.

Another round of precip, albeit lighter, is expected on Sunday
night. Although main shortwave is forecast to push east of the
Mississippi River by early Sunday evening, there is good agreement
in the 00z models that strong shortwave digging into the central
CONUS in the wake of the first system will generate a band of
mid-level frontogenetical forcing that will produce a secondary area
of precip from sw MO into s IL.  Although this secondary band of
precip will be falling into a colder ams, at this time it appears
that temps will remain warm enough that it will remain liquid.
However, if precip where to become intense enough a drop in the
freezing level could make ptypes a bit more problematic in some
areas.

(Monday-Thursday)

Secondary area of precip should wind down from west to east on
Monday, but 00z medium range models are in fairly good agreement
that another fast moving shortwave will drop into the deepening long
wave trof over the central CONUS by Wendesday, resulting in a slight
chance of light snow over northern sections of the CWA.

Solutions diverge considerably by Thanksgiving, with ECMWF
indicating a deeper longwave trof over the Ohio Valley and a deeper
intrusion of cold air into our area, while GFS hints at a less
amplified upper air pattern which keeps the baroclinicity...and
potential overrunning precip threat...over our area.  For now have
maintained extended initialization guidance, which indicates some
low PoPs during this time.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected across the area overnight through
much of Friday morning. From mid morning through the afternoon,
deep southerly low-level flow will spread a large area of stratus
which current resides across the lower MS valley and Southern
Plains, to the north and northeastward across central and eastern
MO into western IL. Cigs heights will initially be in the low-end
VFR category, but will lower into the MVFR range during the afternoon
at KCOU, and by early evening at the St. Louis area terminals and
KUIN. With the onset of the lower cigs will also be a threat of
light rain/showers.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will persist overnight through at least mid
afternoon on Friday. Thereafter an area of stratus will spread
into the terminal from the south/southwest, initially with cig
heights in the low-end VFR range. MVFR cigs and light rain/showers
are expected beginning around 00z/22 Nov and continuing Friday night.

Glass

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







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