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000
FXUS63 KLSX 040009
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Late tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

12z guidance depicts no major changes in expected weather trends
across the area. The next round of cold air is just now entering
the extreme northwest counties of our CWA, and will attempt to
undercut the bands of rain that continue to develop near the KS/OK
border and advected ENE into the mid-Mississippi Valley.

The cold air will become deep enough to begin a transition of the
rain to sleet and perhaps freezing rain as the night progresses,
but as the cold air becomes deep enough to create a mix from
central MO into central IL it appears that the precipitation will
be winding down. However, it should be a different story a bit
further south late tonight and into Wednesday morning, where the
precipitation will be more sustained as the cold air reaches
critical depths. Overall, the general trend overnight across the
southeast half of the CWA should be for the rain to first become
mixed with sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. The
continued southward progression of the cold air will then change
this icy mix over to all snow near the I-44 corridor early
Wednesday, with the precip in our far southern counties changing
over to all snow no later than midday, and then winding down
Wednesday evening.

The precipitation late tonight and into Wednesday has a lot going
for it. This mornings UA data indicated 10C 850mb dewpoints
already into SW MO, and this moisture will increase into
Wednesday as the SW low level flow just above the cold air
continues the moisture transport. Lift generated by already strong
isentropic ascent will be increasing as baroclinicity strengthens
to our south, with the southwest flow aloft ejecting several
shortwaves into the mid Mississippi Valley enhancing the deep
lift further. Believe the intensity of the lift is showing up in
most of the synoptic models as they all have some indication of
the upper level jet over the upper Great Lakes backbuilding into
our area with time.

QPF and thermal profiles suggest heavy wintry precipitation is
likely from AR into southern MO and southern IL. Snowfall
generated from these parameters indicate 4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet can
be expected over our far southern counties, and because of this
snowfall along with the light glazing produced by the freezing
rain will be going out with a Winter Storm Warning for late
tonight into Wednesday evening for areas along and south of a
Centerville...Sparta line. Just north of the warning area will be
a winter weather advisory from the eastern Ozarks into southern
Illinois, for lesser snowfalls of 2 to 4 inches along with a
possible glaze of ice.

It should be noted that there will be an extremely tight gradient
on the northern edges of the snowfall...roughtly from near
Jefferson City...through St. Louis...to around Vandalia IL. If the
system shifts slightly north the advisory may need to be expanded
into these areas...this evenings and overnight shifts will be
monitoring upstream radar trends to fine tune this tight snowfall gradient.

Ah spring...

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

As upper level long wave trof pushes east, the Arctic air that
enters the region overnight tonight will continue to build and
strengthen over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although the high will
mean few clouds and dry weather, temperatures of this airmass will
be extremely cold for early March. Currently, we are looking for
Thursday morning lows somewhere in the 5 to 12 above range, with
highs only rebounding into the 20s during the afternoon even with
what should be strong sunshine.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on Thursday night, but
return flow should mean the beginnings of a welcomed warmup by Friday.

A split flow regime will initially be in place at the start of the
extended range period featuring a broad longwave trof centered
across eastern NOAM and a quasi rex block along the west coast. The
block will break down by early next week and the overall strength of
the trof weakens, however we largely maintain northwest flow aloft
into Monday. There will be several notable disturbances embedded
within the flow aloft which will traverse the region, bringing a
cold front through the area on Saturday afternoon/night and then
again on Sunday Night. Present indications are that cooling
associated with these fronts will be weak and short-lived. In
general the weekend will be characterized by near average
temperatures and benign/tranquil weather conditions. Next week will
feature a pronounced pattern change, rising heights aloft and above
average temperatures for much of the week.

Truett/Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

MVFR ceilings will last through much of the night at all TAF
sites as cold front pushes through and stratus deck remains. KUIN
and KCOU will likely be VFR by 10-13Z Wednesday, then VFR ceilings
reach KSTL TAF sites by around 16Z. Will have to watch radar and
surface reports carefully this evening as there is some chance
that precip aloft now seen on regional radars may reach the surface at
KSTL area TAF sites. For now, it appears a dry layer at 6K to 8K
feet may keep this from happening so have left TAFS dry. Northwest
winds behind the front will become gusty and last into Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings expected until 16Z. Cold front
should reach TAF site by around 06Z, and north winds behind the
cold front will increase to around 14 knots and become gusty.
Have kept TAF dry for now, but will have to watch surface reports
to see if precip aloft now seen on radar begins reaching the
ground this evening. Expect dry air aloft to keep most precip just
to the south of KSTL on Wednesday, but it is a close call.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Jefferson MO-Washington MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Randolph IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 040009
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Late tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

12z guidance depicts no major changes in expected weather trends
across the area. The next round of cold air is just now entering
the extreme northwest counties of our CWA, and will attempt to
undercut the bands of rain that continue to develop near the KS/OK
border and advected ENE into the mid-Mississippi Valley.

The cold air will become deep enough to begin a transition of the
rain to sleet and perhaps freezing rain as the night progresses,
but as the cold air becomes deep enough to create a mix from
central MO into central IL it appears that the precipitation will
be winding down. However, it should be a different story a bit
further south late tonight and into Wednesday morning, where the
precipitation will be more sustained as the cold air reaches
critical depths. Overall, the general trend overnight across the
southeast half of the CWA should be for the rain to first become
mixed with sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. The
continued southward progression of the cold air will then change
this icy mix over to all snow near the I-44 corridor early
Wednesday, with the precip in our far southern counties changing
over to all snow no later than midday, and then winding down
Wednesday evening.

The precipitation late tonight and into Wednesday has a lot going
for it. This mornings UA data indicated 10C 850mb dewpoints
already into SW MO, and this moisture will increase into
Wednesday as the SW low level flow just above the cold air
continues the moisture transport. Lift generated by already strong
isentropic ascent will be increasing as baroclinicity strengthens
to our south, with the southwest flow aloft ejecting several
shortwaves into the mid Mississippi Valley enhancing the deep
lift further. Believe the intensity of the lift is showing up in
most of the synoptic models as they all have some indication of
the upper level jet over the upper Great Lakes backbuilding into
our area with time.

QPF and thermal profiles suggest heavy wintry precipitation is
likely from AR into southern MO and southern IL. Snowfall
generated from these parameters indicate 4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet can
be expected over our far southern counties, and because of this
snowfall along with the light glazing produced by the freezing
rain will be going out with a Winter Storm Warning for late
tonight into Wednesday evening for areas along and south of a
Centerville...Sparta line. Just north of the warning area will be
a winter weather advisory from the eastern Ozarks into southern
Illinois, for lesser snowfalls of 2 to 4 inches along with a
possible glaze of ice.

It should be noted that there will be an extremely tight gradient
on the northern edges of the snowfall...roughtly from near
Jefferson City...through St. Louis...to around Vandalia IL. If the
system shifts slightly north the advisory may need to be expanded
into these areas...this evenings and overnight shifts will be
monitoring upstream radar trends to fine tune this tight snowfall gradient.

Ah spring...

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

As upper level long wave trof pushes east, the Arctic air that
enters the region overnight tonight will continue to build and
strengthen over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although the high will
mean few clouds and dry weather, temperatures of this airmass will
be extremely cold for early March. Currently, we are looking for
Thursday morning lows somewhere in the 5 to 12 above range, with
highs only rebounding into the 20s during the afternoon even with
what should be strong sunshine.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on Thursday night, but
return flow should mean the beginnings of a welcomed warmup by Friday.

A split flow regime will initially be in place at the start of the
extended range period featuring a broad longwave trof centered
across eastern NOAM and a quasi rex block along the west coast. The
block will break down by early next week and the overall strength of
the trof weakens, however we largely maintain northwest flow aloft
into Monday. There will be several notable disturbances embedded
within the flow aloft which will traverse the region, bringing a
cold front through the area on Saturday afternoon/night and then
again on Sunday Night. Present indications are that cooling
associated with these fronts will be weak and short-lived. In
general the weekend will be characterized by near average
temperatures and benign/tranquil weather conditions. Next week will
feature a pronounced pattern change, rising heights aloft and above
average temperatures for much of the week.

Truett/Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

MVFR ceilings will last through much of the night at all TAF
sites as cold front pushes through and stratus deck remains. KUIN
and KCOU will likely be VFR by 10-13Z Wednesday, then VFR ceilings
reach KSTL TAF sites by around 16Z. Will have to watch radar and
surface reports carefully this evening as there is some chance
that precip aloft now seen on regional radars may reach the surface at
KSTL area TAF sites. For now, it appears a dry layer at 6K to 8K
feet may keep this from happening so have left TAFS dry. Northwest
winds behind the front will become gusty and last into Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings expected until 16Z. Cold front
should reach TAF site by around 06Z, and north winds behind the
cold front will increase to around 14 knots and become gusty.
Have kept TAF dry for now, but will have to watch surface reports
to see if precip aloft now seen on radar begins reaching the
ground this evening. Expect dry air aloft to keep most precip just
to the south of KSTL on Wednesday, but it is a close call.

Browning

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Jefferson MO-Washington MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Randolph IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 032358
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon.  The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region.  As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.

Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response.  As the cold low level air mass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time.  Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow.  Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow.  This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday.  Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri.  In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet.  There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.

Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours.  For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations.  In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things.  No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.

So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44.  For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor.  Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge.  North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect.  The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.

Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any air mass
changes will be focused to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move through
the region early in the taf period followed by upper level
disturbances which will produce periods of rain gradually
transitioning to a wintry mix then snow. To start the period
ceilings vary over the area, generally mvfr/ifr but with a few
areas seeing a scattering out of low clouds. The general trend
will be a lowering of ceilings behind the front with the onset of
light precipitation. Looking for ifr visibility and ceilings much
of the time after 04z-06z with possibly some modest improvement
late in the taf period at KJLN and KSGF with heavier precipitation
beginning to move s-se of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ082-083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-
     102.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 032358
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon.  The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region.  As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.

Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response.  As the cold low level air mass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time.  Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow.  Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow.  This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday.  Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri.  In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet.  There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.

Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours.  For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations.  In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things.  No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.

So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44.  For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor.  Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge.  North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect.  The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.

Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any air mass
changes will be focused to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move through
the region early in the taf period followed by upper level
disturbances which will produce periods of rain gradually
transitioning to a wintry mix then snow. To start the period
ceilings vary over the area, generally mvfr/ifr but with a few
areas seeing a scattering out of low clouds. The general trend
will be a lowering of ceilings behind the front with the onset of
light precipitation. Looking for ifr visibility and ceilings much
of the time after 04z-06z with possibly some modest improvement
late in the taf period at KJLN and KSGF with heavier precipitation
beginning to move s-se of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ082-083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-
     102.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 032358
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon.  The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region.  As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.

Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response.  As the cold low level air mass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time.  Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow.  Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow.  This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday.  Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri.  In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet.  There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.

Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours.  For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations.  In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things.  No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.

So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44.  For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor.  Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge.  North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect.  The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.

Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any air mass
changes will be focused to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move through
the region early in the taf period followed by upper level
disturbances which will produce periods of rain gradually
transitioning to a wintry mix then snow. To start the period
ceilings vary over the area, generally mvfr/ifr but with a few
areas seeing a scattering out of low clouds. The general trend
will be a lowering of ceilings behind the front with the onset of
light precipitation. Looking for ifr visibility and ceilings much
of the time after 04z-06z with possibly some modest improvement
late in the taf period at KJLN and KSGF with heavier precipitation
beginning to move s-se of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ082-083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-
     102.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 032358
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon.  The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region.  As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.

Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response.  As the cold low level air mass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time.  Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow.  Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow.  This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday.  Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri.  In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet.  There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.

Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours.  For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations.  In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things.  No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.

So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44.  For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor.  Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge.  North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect.  The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.

Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any air mass
changes will be focused to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move through
the region early in the taf period followed by upper level
disturbances which will produce periods of rain gradually
transitioning to a wintry mix then snow. To start the period
ceilings vary over the area, generally mvfr/ifr but with a few
areas seeing a scattering out of low clouds. The general trend
will be a lowering of ceilings behind the front with the onset of
light precipitation. Looking for ifr visibility and ceilings much
of the time after 04z-06z with possibly some modest improvement
late in the taf period at KJLN and KSGF with heavier precipitation
beginning to move s-se of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ082-083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-
     102.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 032358
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon.  The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region.  As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.

Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response.  As the cold low level air mass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time.  Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow.  Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow.  This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday.  Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri.  In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet.  There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.

Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours.  For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations.  In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things.  No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.

So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44.  For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor.  Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge.  North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect.  The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.

Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any air mass
changes will be focused to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move through
the region early in the taf period followed by upper level
disturbances which will produce periods of rain gradually
transitioning to a wintry mix then snow. To start the period
ceilings vary over the area, generally mvfr/ifr but with a few
areas seeing a scattering out of low clouds. The general trend
will be a lowering of ceilings behind the front with the onset of
light precipitation. Looking for ifr visibility and ceilings much
of the time after 04z-06z with possibly some modest improvement
late in the taf period at KJLN and KSGF with heavier precipitation
beginning to move s-se of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ082-083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-
     102.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 032358
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon.  The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region.  As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.

Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response.  As the cold low level air mass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time.  Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow.  Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow.  This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday.  Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri.  In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet.  There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.

Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours.  For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations.  In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things.  No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.

So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44.  For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor.  Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge.  North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect.  The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.

Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any air mass
changes will be focused to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move through
the region early in the taf period followed by upper level
disturbances which will produce periods of rain gradually
transitioning to a wintry mix then snow. To start the period
ceilings vary over the area, generally mvfr/ifr but with a few
areas seeing a scattering out of low clouds. The general trend
will be a lowering of ceilings behind the front with the onset of
light precipitation. Looking for ifr visibility and ceilings much
of the time after 04z-06z with possibly some modest improvement
late in the taf period at KJLN and KSGF with heavier precipitation
beginning to move s-se of the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     FOR MOZ082-083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-
     102.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 032321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
521 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Split flow regime prevailing over the lower 48 with latest layered
precipitable water satellite imagery showing extensive moisture
advection working northeast from the eastern Pacific basin this
afternoon. Meanwhile to the north...strung out northern stream
shortwave energy slowly sinking south across the upper Miss
Vly...with associated sfc cold front slowly working into northwest
Missouri as of this writing. Main focus heading into the short term
remains centered on a developing stratiform snow shield later tonight
as frontal boundary sharpens to our south after passing through the
KC Metro. What is for certain however is that near normal temps today
will quickly become history for a few days as much colder air
filters in during the overnight hrs tonight.

Models have remained consistent in their suggestion that the
heaviest snow will remain south of the EAX CWA from late tonight
through Wednesday afternoon. The main reasons behind this are two
fold:

1. Best mid-level frontogenesis in the 850-700 hPa layer will slowly
sink south towards the I-44 corridor overnight into early Thu morning

and

2. west-central Missouri and northeastern Kansas will remain too far
north to benefit from best upper-level divergence in the entrance
region of a strong /170+ kt/ upper jetstreak

These two factors combined with dry air advection arriving from the
north as high pressure begins building into the area should limit
the overall northward extend of measurable snowfall through Wed morning.
In any event...cannot rule out some minor accumulations from
Miami/Linn Counties east through Sedalia but even in these
locations...event total accums should generally remain under 1".
Later shifts will have to monitor trends to ensure current line of
thinking remains on target.

As alluded to above...other other main story will be the cold temps
progged to impact the area both Wed and Thu. Overnight lows by Thu
morning could bottom out in the single digits for many areas north of
I-70...as an 850 hPa cold pool characterized by temps of 2-3 standard
deviations below normal moves over the region. Thu still looks cold
with high temps by afternoon only climbing back into the lwr 30s west
of Route 65...with mid to upper 20s expected east.

Beyond this...only real item to talk about will be the warm-up
expected by the weekend. Decent warm air advection on the backside of
sfc high pressure building into the lwr Miss Vly combined with
modest height rises should allow temps to warm to the lower 50s by
Fri...with a continuation expected right through Sat. Slightly cooler
air will descend upon the region by Sun as a weak cold front passes
/albeit dry/ during the early morning hrs. By early next week
however...temps will again be on the upswing as West Coast ridging
begins to break down and shift east. This should result in a pleasant
upcoming work week as well above normal temps dominate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Cold front has pushed through with increased NW winds around 12-15
kts expected to remain in place through the period. Will see MVFR
cigs linger over the area overnight as post-frontal stratus continues
to work south. High pressure will build in the morning and will help
to lift cigs to VFR by 12Z, while scattering out further in the early
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 032321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
521 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Split flow regime prevailing over the lower 48 with latest layered
precipitable water satellite imagery showing extensive moisture
advection working northeast from the eastern Pacific basin this
afternoon. Meanwhile to the north...strung out northern stream
shortwave energy slowly sinking south across the upper Miss
Vly...with associated sfc cold front slowly working into northwest
Missouri as of this writing. Main focus heading into the short term
remains centered on a developing stratiform snow shield later tonight
as frontal boundary sharpens to our south after passing through the
KC Metro. What is for certain however is that near normal temps today
will quickly become history for a few days as much colder air
filters in during the overnight hrs tonight.

Models have remained consistent in their suggestion that the
heaviest snow will remain south of the EAX CWA from late tonight
through Wednesday afternoon. The main reasons behind this are two
fold:

1. Best mid-level frontogenesis in the 850-700 hPa layer will slowly
sink south towards the I-44 corridor overnight into early Thu morning

and

2. west-central Missouri and northeastern Kansas will remain too far
north to benefit from best upper-level divergence in the entrance
region of a strong /170+ kt/ upper jetstreak

These two factors combined with dry air advection arriving from the
north as high pressure begins building into the area should limit
the overall northward extend of measurable snowfall through Wed morning.
In any event...cannot rule out some minor accumulations from
Miami/Linn Counties east through Sedalia but even in these
locations...event total accums should generally remain under 1".
Later shifts will have to monitor trends to ensure current line of
thinking remains on target.

As alluded to above...other other main story will be the cold temps
progged to impact the area both Wed and Thu. Overnight lows by Thu
morning could bottom out in the single digits for many areas north of
I-70...as an 850 hPa cold pool characterized by temps of 2-3 standard
deviations below normal moves over the region. Thu still looks cold
with high temps by afternoon only climbing back into the lwr 30s west
of Route 65...with mid to upper 20s expected east.

Beyond this...only real item to talk about will be the warm-up
expected by the weekend. Decent warm air advection on the backside of
sfc high pressure building into the lwr Miss Vly combined with
modest height rises should allow temps to warm to the lower 50s by
Fri...with a continuation expected right through Sat. Slightly cooler
air will descend upon the region by Sun as a weak cold front passes
/albeit dry/ during the early morning hrs. By early next week
however...temps will again be on the upswing as West Coast ridging
begins to break down and shift east. This should result in a pleasant
upcoming work week as well above normal temps dominate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Cold front has pushed through with increased NW winds around 12-15
kts expected to remain in place through the period. Will see MVFR
cigs linger over the area overnight as post-frontal stratus continues
to work south. High pressure will build in the morning and will help
to lift cigs to VFR by 12Z, while scattering out further in the early
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KLSX 032210
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
410 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Late tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

12z guidance depicts no major changes in expected weather trends
across the area. The next round of cold air is just now entering
the extreme northwest counties of our CWA, and will attempt to
undercut the bands of rain that continue to develop near the KS/OK
border and advected ENE into the mid-Mississippi Valley.

The cold air will become deep enough to begin a transition of the
rain to sleet and perhaps freezing rain as the night progresses,
but as the cold air becomes deep enough to create a mix from
central MO into central IL it appears that the precipitation will
be winding down. However, it should be a different story a bit
further south late tonight and into Wednesday morning, where the
precipitation will be more sustained as the cold air reaches
critical depths. Overall, the general trend overnight across the
southeast half of the CWA should be for the rain to first become
mixed with sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. The
continued southward progression of the cold air will then change
this icy mix over to all snow near the I-44 corridor early
Wednesday, with the precip in our far southern counties changing
over to all snow no later than midday, and then winding down
Wednesday evening.

The precipitation late tonight and into Wednesday has a lot going
for it. This mornings UA data indicated 10C 850mb dewpoints
already into SW MO, and this moisture will increase into
Wednesday as the SW low level flow just above the cold air
continues the moisture transport. Lift generated by already strong
isentropic ascent will be increasing as baroclinicity strengthens
to our south, with the southwest flow aloft ejecting several
shortwaves into the mid Mississippi Valley enhancing the deep
lift further. Believe the intensity of the lift is showing up in
most of the synoptic models as they all have some indication of
the upper level jet over the upper Great Lakes backbuilding into
our area with time.

QPF and thermal profiles suggest heavy wintry precipitation is
likely from AR into southern MO and southern IL. Snowfall
generated from these parameters indicate 4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet can
be expected over our far southern counties, and because of this
snowfall along with the light glazing produced by the freezing
rain will be going out with a Winter Storm Warning for late
tonight into Wednesday evening for areas along and south of a
Centerville...Sparta line. Just north of the warning area will be
a winter weather advisory from the eastern Ozarks into southern
Illinois, for lesser snowfalls of 2 to 4 inches along with a
possible glaze of ice.

It should be noted that there will be an extremely tight gradient
on the northern edges of the snowfall...roughtly from near
Jefferson City...through St. Louis...to around Vandalia IL. If the
system shifts slightly north the advisory may need to be expanded
into these areas...this evenings and overnight shifts will be
monitoring upstream radar trends to fine tune this tight snowfall gradient.

Ah spring...

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

As upper level long wave trof pushes east, the Arctic air that
enters the region overnight tonight will continue to build and
strengthen over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although the high will
mean few clouds and dry weather, temperatures of this airmass will
be extremely cold for early March. Currently, we are looking for
Thursday morning lows somewhere in the 5 to 12 above range, with
highs only rebounding into the 20s during the afternoon even with
what should be strong sunshine.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on Thursday night, but
return flow should mean the beginnings of a welcomed warmup by Friday.

A split flow regime will initially be in place at the start of the
extended range period featuring a broad longwave trof centered
across eastern NOAM and a quasi rex block along the west coast. The
block will break down by early next week and the overall strength of
the trof weakens, however we largely maintain northwest flow aloft
into Monday. There will be several notable disturbances embedded
within the flow aloft which will traverse the region, bringing a
cold front through the area on Saturday afternoon/night and then
again on Sunday Night. Present indications are that cooling
associated with these fronts will be weak and short-lived. In
general the weekend will be characterized by near average
temperatures and benign/tranquil weather conditions. Next week will
feature a pronounced pattern change, rising heights aloft and above
average temperatures for much of the week.

Truett/Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

IFR/low end MVFR to persist across forecast area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage between 21z Tuesday and 00z
Wednesday, then to veer to the north after 03z-05z Wednesday.
Through forecast period, best chances of precipitation will be
just south of taf sites, so kept mention out for now. Cigs to lift
to VFR between 10z-16z Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL:
IFR/low end MVFR to persist across metro area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage after 00z Wednesday, then to veer
to the north after 05z Wednesday. Through forecast period, best
chances of precipitation will be just south of metro area, so kept
mention out for now. Cigs to lift to VFR by 16z Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Jefferson MO-Washington MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Randolph IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 032210
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
410 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Late tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

12z guidance depicts no major changes in expected weather trends
across the area. The next round of cold air is just now entering
the extreme northwest counties of our CWA, and will attempt to
undercut the bands of rain that continue to develop near the KS/OK
border and advected ENE into the mid-Mississippi Valley.

The cold air will become deep enough to begin a transition of the
rain to sleet and perhaps freezing rain as the night progresses,
but as the cold air becomes deep enough to create a mix from
central MO into central IL it appears that the precipitation will
be winding down. However, it should be a different story a bit
further south late tonight and into Wednesday morning, where the
precipitation will be more sustained as the cold air reaches
critical depths. Overall, the general trend overnight across the
southeast half of the CWA should be for the rain to first become
mixed with sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. The
continued southward progression of the cold air will then change
this icy mix over to all snow near the I-44 corridor early
Wednesday, with the precip in our far southern counties changing
over to all snow no later than midday, and then winding down
Wednesday evening.

The precipitation late tonight and into Wednesday has a lot going
for it. This mornings UA data indicated 10C 850mb dewpoints
already into SW MO, and this moisture will increase into
Wednesday as the SW low level flow just above the cold air
continues the moisture transport. Lift generated by already strong
isentropic ascent will be increasing as baroclinicity strengthens
to our south, with the southwest flow aloft ejecting several
shortwaves into the mid Mississippi Valley enhancing the deep
lift further. Believe the intensity of the lift is showing up in
most of the synoptic models as they all have some indication of
the upper level jet over the upper Great Lakes backbuilding into
our area with time.

QPF and thermal profiles suggest heavy wintry precipitation is
likely from AR into southern MO and southern IL. Snowfall
generated from these parameters indicate 4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet can
be expected over our far southern counties, and because of this
snowfall along with the light glazing produced by the freezing
rain will be going out with a Winter Storm Warning for late
tonight into Wednesday evening for areas along and south of a
Centerville...Sparta line. Just north of the warning area will be
a winter weather advisory from the eastern Ozarks into southern
Illinois, for lesser snowfalls of 2 to 4 inches along with a
possible glaze of ice.

It should be noted that there will be an extremely tight gradient
on the northern edges of the snowfall...roughtly from near
Jefferson City...through St. Louis...to around Vandalia IL. If the
system shifts slightly north the advisory may need to be expanded
into these areas...this evenings and overnight shifts will be
monitoring upstream radar trends to fine tune this tight snowfall gradient.

Ah spring...

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

As upper level long wave trof pushes east, the Arctic air that
enters the region overnight tonight will continue to build and
strengthen over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although the high will
mean few clouds and dry weather, temperatures of this airmass will
be extremely cold for early March. Currently, we are looking for
Thursday morning lows somewhere in the 5 to 12 above range, with
highs only rebounding into the 20s during the afternoon even with
what should be strong sunshine.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on Thursday night, but
return flow should mean the beginnings of a welcomed warmup by Friday.

A split flow regime will initially be in place at the start of the
extended range period featuring a broad longwave trof centered
across eastern NOAM and a quasi rex block along the west coast. The
block will break down by early next week and the overall strength of
the trof weakens, however we largely maintain northwest flow aloft
into Monday. There will be several notable disturbances embedded
within the flow aloft which will traverse the region, bringing a
cold front through the area on Saturday afternoon/night and then
again on Sunday Night. Present indications are that cooling
associated with these fronts will be weak and short-lived. In
general the weekend will be characterized by near average
temperatures and benign/tranquil weather conditions. Next week will
feature a pronounced pattern change, rising heights aloft and above
average temperatures for much of the week.

Truett/Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

IFR/low end MVFR to persist across forecast area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage between 21z Tuesday and 00z
Wednesday, then to veer to the north after 03z-05z Wednesday.
Through forecast period, best chances of precipitation will be
just south of taf sites, so kept mention out for now. Cigs to lift
to VFR between 10z-16z Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL:
IFR/low end MVFR to persist across metro area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage after 00z Wednesday, then to veer
to the north after 05z Wednesday. Through forecast period, best
chances of precipitation will be just south of metro area, so kept
mention out for now. Cigs to lift to VFR by 16z Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Jefferson MO-Washington MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Randolph IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 032210
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
410 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Late tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

12z guidance depicts no major changes in expected weather trends
across the area. The next round of cold air is just now entering
the extreme northwest counties of our CWA, and will attempt to
undercut the bands of rain that continue to develop near the KS/OK
border and advected ENE into the mid-Mississippi Valley.

The cold air will become deep enough to begin a transition of the
rain to sleet and perhaps freezing rain as the night progresses,
but as the cold air becomes deep enough to create a mix from
central MO into central IL it appears that the precipitation will
be winding down. However, it should be a different story a bit
further south late tonight and into Wednesday morning, where the
precipitation will be more sustained as the cold air reaches
critical depths. Overall, the general trend overnight across the
southeast half of the CWA should be for the rain to first become
mixed with sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. The
continued southward progression of the cold air will then change
this icy mix over to all snow near the I-44 corridor early
Wednesday, with the precip in our far southern counties changing
over to all snow no later than midday, and then winding down
Wednesday evening.

The precipitation late tonight and into Wednesday has a lot going
for it. This mornings UA data indicated 10C 850mb dewpoints
already into SW MO, and this moisture will increase into
Wednesday as the SW low level flow just above the cold air
continues the moisture transport. Lift generated by already strong
isentropic ascent will be increasing as baroclinicity strengthens
to our south, with the southwest flow aloft ejecting several
shortwaves into the mid Mississippi Valley enhancing the deep
lift further. Believe the intensity of the lift is showing up in
most of the synoptic models as they all have some indication of
the upper level jet over the upper Great Lakes backbuilding into
our area with time.

QPF and thermal profiles suggest heavy wintry precipitation is
likely from AR into southern MO and southern IL. Snowfall
generated from these parameters indicate 4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet can
be expected over our far southern counties, and because of this
snowfall along with the light glazing produced by the freezing
rain will be going out with a Winter Storm Warning for late
tonight into Wednesday evening for areas along and south of a
Centerville...Sparta line. Just north of the warning area will be
a winter weather advisory from the eastern Ozarks into southern
Illinois, for lesser snowfalls of 2 to 4 inches along with a
possible glaze of ice.

It should be noted that there will be an extremely tight gradient
on the northern edges of the snowfall...roughtly from near
Jefferson City...through St. Louis...to around Vandalia IL. If the
system shifts slightly north the advisory may need to be expanded
into these areas...this evenings and overnight shifts will be
monitoring upstream radar trends to fine tune this tight snowfall gradient.

Ah spring...

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

As upper level long wave trof pushes east, the Arctic air that
enters the region overnight tonight will continue to build and
strengthen over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although the high will
mean few clouds and dry weather, temperatures of this airmass will
be extremely cold for early March. Currently, we are looking for
Thursday morning lows somewhere in the 5 to 12 above range, with
highs only rebounding into the 20s during the afternoon even with
what should be strong sunshine.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on Thursday night, but
return flow should mean the beginnings of a welcomed warmup by Friday.

A split flow regime will initially be in place at the start of the
extended range period featuring a broad longwave trof centered
across eastern NOAM and a quasi rex block along the west coast. The
block will break down by early next week and the overall strength of
the trof weakens, however we largely maintain northwest flow aloft
into Monday. There will be several notable disturbances embedded
within the flow aloft which will traverse the region, bringing a
cold front through the area on Saturday afternoon/night and then
again on Sunday Night. Present indications are that cooling
associated with these fronts will be weak and short-lived. In
general the weekend will be characterized by near average
temperatures and benign/tranquil weather conditions. Next week will
feature a pronounced pattern change, rising heights aloft and above
average temperatures for much of the week.

Truett/Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

IFR/low end MVFR to persist across forecast area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage between 21z Tuesday and 00z
Wednesday, then to veer to the north after 03z-05z Wednesday.
Through forecast period, best chances of precipitation will be
just south of taf sites, so kept mention out for now. Cigs to lift
to VFR between 10z-16z Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL:
IFR/low end MVFR to persist across metro area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage after 00z Wednesday, then to veer
to the north after 05z Wednesday. Through forecast period, best
chances of precipitation will be just south of metro area, so kept
mention out for now. Cigs to lift to VFR by 16z Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Jefferson MO-Washington MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Randolph IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 032210
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
410 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Late tonight through Wednesday evening)
Issued at 405 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

12z guidance depicts no major changes in expected weather trends
across the area. The next round of cold air is just now entering
the extreme northwest counties of our CWA, and will attempt to
undercut the bands of rain that continue to develop near the KS/OK
border and advected ENE into the mid-Mississippi Valley.

The cold air will become deep enough to begin a transition of the
rain to sleet and perhaps freezing rain as the night progresses,
but as the cold air becomes deep enough to create a mix from
central MO into central IL it appears that the precipitation will
be winding down. However, it should be a different story a bit
further south late tonight and into Wednesday morning, where the
precipitation will be more sustained as the cold air reaches
critical depths. Overall, the general trend overnight across the
southeast half of the CWA should be for the rain to first become
mixed with sleet and freezing rain as the night progresses. The
continued southward progression of the cold air will then change
this icy mix over to all snow near the I-44 corridor early
Wednesday, with the precip in our far southern counties changing
over to all snow no later than midday, and then winding down
Wednesday evening.

The precipitation late tonight and into Wednesday has a lot going
for it. This mornings UA data indicated 10C 850mb dewpoints
already into SW MO, and this moisture will increase into
Wednesday as the SW low level flow just above the cold air
continues the moisture transport. Lift generated by already strong
isentropic ascent will be increasing as baroclinicity strengthens
to our south, with the southwest flow aloft ejecting several
shortwaves into the mid Mississippi Valley enhancing the deep
lift further. Believe the intensity of the lift is showing up in
most of the synoptic models as they all have some indication of
the upper level jet over the upper Great Lakes backbuilding into
our area with time.

QPF and thermal profiles suggest heavy wintry precipitation is
likely from AR into southern MO and southern IL. Snowfall
generated from these parameters indicate 4 to 6 inches of snow/sleet can
be expected over our far southern counties, and because of this
snowfall along with the light glazing produced by the freezing
rain will be going out with a Winter Storm Warning for late
tonight into Wednesday evening for areas along and south of a
Centerville...Sparta line. Just north of the warning area will be
a winter weather advisory from the eastern Ozarks into southern
Illinois, for lesser snowfalls of 2 to 4 inches along with a
possible glaze of ice.

It should be noted that there will be an extremely tight gradient
on the northern edges of the snowfall...roughtly from near
Jefferson City...through St. Louis...to around Vandalia IL. If the
system shifts slightly north the advisory may need to be expanded
into these areas...this evenings and overnight shifts will be
monitoring upstream radar trends to fine tune this tight snowfall gradient.

Ah spring...

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

As upper level long wave trof pushes east, the Arctic air that
enters the region overnight tonight will continue to build and
strengthen over the mid Mississippi Valley. Although the high will
mean few clouds and dry weather, temperatures of this airmass will
be extremely cold for early March. Currently, we are looking for
Thursday morning lows somewhere in the 5 to 12 above range, with
highs only rebounding into the 20s during the afternoon even with
what should be strong sunshine.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on Thursday night, but
return flow should mean the beginnings of a welcomed warmup by Friday.

A split flow regime will initially be in place at the start of the
extended range period featuring a broad longwave trof centered
across eastern NOAM and a quasi rex block along the west coast. The
block will break down by early next week and the overall strength of
the trof weakens, however we largely maintain northwest flow aloft
into Monday. There will be several notable disturbances embedded
within the flow aloft which will traverse the region, bringing a
cold front through the area on Saturday afternoon/night and then
again on Sunday Night. Present indications are that cooling
associated with these fronts will be weak and short-lived. In
general the weekend will be characterized by near average
temperatures and benign/tranquil weather conditions. Next week will
feature a pronounced pattern change, rising heights aloft and above
average temperatures for much of the week.

Truett/Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

IFR/low end MVFR to persist across forecast area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage between 21z Tuesday and 00z
Wednesday, then to veer to the north after 03z-05z Wednesday.
Through forecast period, best chances of precipitation will be
just south of taf sites, so kept mention out for now. Cigs to lift
to VFR between 10z-16z Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL:
IFR/low end MVFR to persist across metro area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage after 00z Wednesday, then to veer
to the north after 05z Wednesday. Through forecast period, best
chances of precipitation will be just south of metro area, so kept
mention out for now. Cigs to lift to VFR by 16z Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Crawford MO-Jefferson MO-Washington MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St.
     Francois MO-Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday FOR Clinton IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to Midnight CST
     Wednesday Night FOR Randolph IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 032101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon.  The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region.  As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.

Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response.  As the cold low level airmass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time.  Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow.  Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow.  This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday.  Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri.  In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet.  There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.

Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours.  For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations.  In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things.  No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.

So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44.  For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor.  Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge.  North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect.  The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.

Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any airmass
changes will be focused to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR conditions will be the rule this afternoon, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of an approaching front. Exact
timing of the front will be a challenge, but mid evening looks to
be the rule for now.

As that front passes, expect a period of gusty north winds. In
addition, areas of rain will develop across the region, with a
transition to freezing rain and then a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain as temperatures cool. A change to all snow is then
expected tomorrow; that change should occur during the mid morning
hours for SGF and JLN, and late morning or early afternoon for
BBG. Again, exact timing is a challenge. Once the change to all
snow takes place, expected widespread IFR or LIFR vis.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 032101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon.  The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region.  As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.

Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response.  As the cold low level airmass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time.  Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow.  Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow.  This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday.  Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri.  In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet.  There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.

Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours.  For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations.  In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things.  No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.

So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44.  For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor.  Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge.  North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect.  The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.

Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any airmass
changes will be focused to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR conditions will be the rule this afternoon, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of an approaching front. Exact
timing of the front will be a challenge, but mid evening looks to
be the rule for now.

As that front passes, expect a period of gusty north winds. In
addition, areas of rain will develop across the region, with a
transition to freezing rain and then a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain as temperatures cool. A change to all snow is then
expected tomorrow; that change should occur during the mid morning
hours for SGF and JLN, and late morning or early afternoon for
BBG. Again, exact timing is a challenge. Once the change to all
snow takes place, expected widespread IFR or LIFR vis.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KEAX 032019
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
219 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Split flow regime prevailing over the lower 48 with latest layered
precipitable water satellite imagery showing extensive moisture
advection working northeast from the eastern Pacific basin this
afternoon. Meanwhile to the north...strung out northern stream
shortwave energy slowly sinking south across the upper Miss
Vly...with associated sfc cold front slowly working into northwest
Missouri as of this writing. Main focus heading into the short term
remains centered on a developing stratiform snow shield later tonight
as frontal boundary sharpens to our south after passing through the
KC Metro. What is for certain however is that near normal temps today
will quickly become history for a few days as much colder air
filters in during the overnight hrs tonight.

Models have remained consistent in their suggestion that the
heaviest snow will remain south of the EAX CWA from late tonight
through Wednesday afternoon. The main reasons behind this are two
fold:

1. Best mid-level frontogenesis in the 850-700 hPa layer will slowly
sink south towards the I-44 corridor overnight into early Thu morning

and

2. west-central Missouri and northeastern Kansas will remain too far
north to benefit from best upper-level divergence in the entrance
region of a strong /170+ kt/ upper jetstreak

These two factors combined with dry air advection arriving from the
north as high pressure begins building into the area should limit
the overall northward extend of measurable snowfall through Wed morning.
In any event...cannot rule out some minor accumulations from
Miami/Linn Counties east through Sedalia but even in these
locations...event total accums should generally remain under 1".
Later shifts will have to monitor trends to ensure current line of
thinking remains on target.

As alluded to above...other other main story will be the cold temps
progged to impact the area both Wed and Thu. Overnight lows by Thu
morning could bottom out in the single digits for many areas north of
I-70...as an 850 hPa cold pool characterized by temps of 2-3 standard
deviations below normal moves over the region. Thu still looks cold
with high temps by afternoon only climbing back into the lwr 30s west
of Route 65...with mid to upper 20s expected east.

Beyond this...only real item to talk about will be the warm-up
expected by the weekend. Decent warm air advection on the backside of
sfc high pressure building into the lwr Miss Vly combined with
modest height rises should allow temps to warm to the lower 50s by
Fri...with a continuation expected right through Sat. Slightly cooler
air will descend upon the region by Sun as a weak cold front passes
/albeit dry/ during the early morning hrs. By early next week
however...temps will again be on the upswing as West Coast ridging
begins to break down and shift east. This should result in a pleasant
upcoming work week as well above normal temps dominate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 032019
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
219 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Split flow regime prevailing over the lower 48 with latest layered
precipitable water satellite imagery showing extensive moisture
advection working northeast from the eastern Pacific basin this
afternoon. Meanwhile to the north...strung out northern stream
shortwave energy slowly sinking south across the upper Miss
Vly...with associated sfc cold front slowly working into northwest
Missouri as of this writing. Main focus heading into the short term
remains centered on a developing stratiform snow shield later tonight
as frontal boundary sharpens to our south after passing through the
KC Metro. What is for certain however is that near normal temps today
will quickly become history for a few days as much colder air
filters in during the overnight hrs tonight.

Models have remained consistent in their suggestion that the
heaviest snow will remain south of the EAX CWA from late tonight
through Wednesday afternoon. The main reasons behind this are two
fold:

1. Best mid-level frontogenesis in the 850-700 hPa layer will slowly
sink south towards the I-44 corridor overnight into early Thu morning

and

2. west-central Missouri and northeastern Kansas will remain too far
north to benefit from best upper-level divergence in the entrance
region of a strong /170+ kt/ upper jetstreak

These two factors combined with dry air advection arriving from the
north as high pressure begins building into the area should limit
the overall northward extend of measurable snowfall through Wed morning.
In any event...cannot rule out some minor accumulations from
Miami/Linn Counties east through Sedalia but even in these
locations...event total accums should generally remain under 1".
Later shifts will have to monitor trends to ensure current line of
thinking remains on target.

As alluded to above...other other main story will be the cold temps
progged to impact the area both Wed and Thu. Overnight lows by Thu
morning could bottom out in the single digits for many areas north of
I-70...as an 850 hPa cold pool characterized by temps of 2-3 standard
deviations below normal moves over the region. Thu still looks cold
with high temps by afternoon only climbing back into the lwr 30s west
of Route 65...with mid to upper 20s expected east.

Beyond this...only real item to talk about will be the warm-up
expected by the weekend. Decent warm air advection on the backside of
sfc high pressure building into the lwr Miss Vly combined with
modest height rises should allow temps to warm to the lower 50s by
Fri...with a continuation expected right through Sat. Slightly cooler
air will descend upon the region by Sun as a weak cold front passes
/albeit dry/ during the early morning hrs. By early next week
however...temps will again be on the upswing as West Coast ridging
begins to break down and shift east. This should result in a pleasant
upcoming work week as well above normal temps dominate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 032019
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
219 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Split flow regime prevailing over the lower 48 with latest layered
precipitable water satellite imagery showing extensive moisture
advection working northeast from the eastern Pacific basin this
afternoon. Meanwhile to the north...strung out northern stream
shortwave energy slowly sinking south across the upper Miss
Vly...with associated sfc cold front slowly working into northwest
Missouri as of this writing. Main focus heading into the short term
remains centered on a developing stratiform snow shield later tonight
as frontal boundary sharpens to our south after passing through the
KC Metro. What is for certain however is that near normal temps today
will quickly become history for a few days as much colder air
filters in during the overnight hrs tonight.

Models have remained consistent in their suggestion that the
heaviest snow will remain south of the EAX CWA from late tonight
through Wednesday afternoon. The main reasons behind this are two
fold:

1. Best mid-level frontogenesis in the 850-700 hPa layer will slowly
sink south towards the I-44 corridor overnight into early Thu morning

and

2. west-central Missouri and northeastern Kansas will remain too far
north to benefit from best upper-level divergence in the entrance
region of a strong /170+ kt/ upper jetstreak

These two factors combined with dry air advection arriving from the
north as high pressure begins building into the area should limit
the overall northward extend of measurable snowfall through Wed morning.
In any event...cannot rule out some minor accumulations from
Miami/Linn Counties east through Sedalia but even in these
locations...event total accums should generally remain under 1".
Later shifts will have to monitor trends to ensure current line of
thinking remains on target.

As alluded to above...other other main story will be the cold temps
progged to impact the area both Wed and Thu. Overnight lows by Thu
morning could bottom out in the single digits for many areas north of
I-70...as an 850 hPa cold pool characterized by temps of 2-3 standard
deviations below normal moves over the region. Thu still looks cold
with high temps by afternoon only climbing back into the lwr 30s west
of Route 65...with mid to upper 20s expected east.

Beyond this...only real item to talk about will be the warm-up
expected by the weekend. Decent warm air advection on the backside of
sfc high pressure building into the lwr Miss Vly combined with
modest height rises should allow temps to warm to the lower 50s by
Fri...with a continuation expected right through Sat. Slightly cooler
air will descend upon the region by Sun as a weak cold front passes
/albeit dry/ during the early morning hrs. By early next week
however...temps will again be on the upswing as West Coast ridging
begins to break down and shift east. This should result in a pleasant
upcoming work week as well above normal temps dominate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 032019
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
219 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Split flow regime prevailing over the lower 48 with latest layered
precipitable water satellite imagery showing extensive moisture
advection working northeast from the eastern Pacific basin this
afternoon. Meanwhile to the north...strung out northern stream
shortwave energy slowly sinking south across the upper Miss
Vly...with associated sfc cold front slowly working into northwest
Missouri as of this writing. Main focus heading into the short term
remains centered on a developing stratiform snow shield later tonight
as frontal boundary sharpens to our south after passing through the
KC Metro. What is for certain however is that near normal temps today
will quickly become history for a few days as much colder air
filters in during the overnight hrs tonight.

Models have remained consistent in their suggestion that the
heaviest snow will remain south of the EAX CWA from late tonight
through Wednesday afternoon. The main reasons behind this are two
fold:

1. Best mid-level frontogenesis in the 850-700 hPa layer will slowly
sink south towards the I-44 corridor overnight into early Thu morning

and

2. west-central Missouri and northeastern Kansas will remain too far
north to benefit from best upper-level divergence in the entrance
region of a strong /170+ kt/ upper jetstreak

These two factors combined with dry air advection arriving from the
north as high pressure begins building into the area should limit
the overall northward extend of measurable snowfall through Wed morning.
In any event...cannot rule out some minor accumulations from
Miami/Linn Counties east through Sedalia but even in these
locations...event total accums should generally remain under 1".
Later shifts will have to monitor trends to ensure current line of
thinking remains on target.

As alluded to above...other other main story will be the cold temps
progged to impact the area both Wed and Thu. Overnight lows by Thu
morning could bottom out in the single digits for many areas north of
I-70...as an 850 hPa cold pool characterized by temps of 2-3 standard
deviations below normal moves over the region. Thu still looks cold
with high temps by afternoon only climbing back into the lwr 30s west
of Route 65...with mid to upper 20s expected east.

Beyond this...only real item to talk about will be the warm-up
expected by the weekend. Decent warm air advection on the backside of
sfc high pressure building into the lwr Miss Vly combined with
modest height rises should allow temps to warm to the lower 50s by
Fri...with a continuation expected right through Sat. Slightly cooler
air will descend upon the region by Sun as a weak cold front passes
/albeit dry/ during the early morning hrs. By early next week
however...temps will again be on the upswing as West Coast ridging
begins to break down and shift east. This should result in a pleasant
upcoming work week as well above normal temps dominate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32






000
FXUS63 KEAX 031750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 031750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 031750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 031750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 031750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 031750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 031750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KEAX 031750
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Challenging aviation forecast as terminals currently reside between
two independent frontal boundaries. Drier air is currently working
into the region this afternoon which has led to a gradual raising of
cigs over the past hour or so. Latest VIS satellite is actually
showing some breaks off to the west which may hold together long
enough to allow an improvement to VFR later this afternoon. For
now...have decided to advertise this possibility with a TEMPO VFR
group starting at 20 or 21z depending on terminal. Following
this...all available guidance suggests the return of MVFR cigs after
00z as post frontal stratus works south over the region. By early
morning...high pressure nosing in from the north should allow a
gradual scattering of low stratus towards sunrise. Winds will
continue veering through the afternoon before becoming northerly by
early evening. Cold air advection should maintain speeds in the 10-15
kt range overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...32







000
FXUS63 KLSX 031740
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 725 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Surface temperatures have begun to rise in earnest over central
and parts of northeast MO during the past hour as winds have
turned more from the due south. Further east, winds remain from
the SE and any temp rises, if any, have been much less. The
location of the 32F isotherm extends from just south of Kirksville
(IRK) southeastward to the northern STL Metro area and east
towards Vandalia, IL. We anticipate some acceleration in the
warming to expand areawide over the next hour or two as winds
continue to veer more S and eventually SW.

Couple that with pcpn...models have done a good job with
forecasting our brief light rain/freezing rain event at sunrise
and with little in the way of echo to the west behind it, lots of
very low clouds in its wake filling in behind it, and some weak
low level convergence from warm front slowly lifting north, should
see patchy drizzle for pcpn from time to time thru about early
afternoon.

Putting it all together, currently anticipate being able to allow
the Advisory to expire everywhere at 8am this morning with limited
areas still below freezing at that time and only very light pcpn
if any left.

TES
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

IFR/low end MVFR to persist across forecast area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage between 21z Tuesday and 00z
Wednesday, then to veer to the north after 03z-05z Wednesday.
Through forecast period, best chances of precipitation will be
just south of taf sites, so kept mention out for now. Cigs to lift
to VFR between 10z-16z Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL:
IFR/low end MVFR to persist across metro area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage after 00z Wednesday, then to veer
to the north after 05z Wednesday. Through forecast period, best
chances of precipitation will be just south of metro area, so kept
mention out for now. Cigs to lift to VFR by 16z Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031740
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 725 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Surface temperatures have begun to rise in earnest over central
and parts of northeast MO during the past hour as winds have
turned more from the due south. Further east, winds remain from
the SE and any temp rises, if any, have been much less. The
location of the 32F isotherm extends from just south of Kirksville
(IRK) southeastward to the northern STL Metro area and east
towards Vandalia, IL. We anticipate some acceleration in the
warming to expand areawide over the next hour or two as winds
continue to veer more S and eventually SW.

Couple that with pcpn...models have done a good job with
forecasting our brief light rain/freezing rain event at sunrise
and with little in the way of echo to the west behind it, lots of
very low clouds in its wake filling in behind it, and some weak
low level convergence from warm front slowly lifting north, should
see patchy drizzle for pcpn from time to time thru about early
afternoon.

Putting it all together, currently anticipate being able to allow
the Advisory to expire everywhere at 8am this morning with limited
areas still below freezing at that time and only very light pcpn
if any left.

TES
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

IFR/low end MVFR to persist across forecast area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage between 21z Tuesday and 00z
Wednesday, then to veer to the north after 03z-05z Wednesday.
Through forecast period, best chances of precipitation will be
just south of taf sites, so kept mention out for now. Cigs to lift
to VFR between 10z-16z Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL:
IFR/low end MVFR to persist across metro area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage after 00z Wednesday, then to veer
to the north after 05z Wednesday. Through forecast period, best
chances of precipitation will be just south of metro area, so kept
mention out for now. Cigs to lift to VFR by 16z Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031740
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 725 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Surface temperatures have begun to rise in earnest over central
and parts of northeast MO during the past hour as winds have
turned more from the due south. Further east, winds remain from
the SE and any temp rises, if any, have been much less. The
location of the 32F isotherm extends from just south of Kirksville
(IRK) southeastward to the northern STL Metro area and east
towards Vandalia, IL. We anticipate some acceleration in the
warming to expand areawide over the next hour or two as winds
continue to veer more S and eventually SW.

Couple that with pcpn...models have done a good job with
forecasting our brief light rain/freezing rain event at sunrise
and with little in the way of echo to the west behind it, lots of
very low clouds in its wake filling in behind it, and some weak
low level convergence from warm front slowly lifting north, should
see patchy drizzle for pcpn from time to time thru about early
afternoon.

Putting it all together, currently anticipate being able to allow
the Advisory to expire everywhere at 8am this morning with limited
areas still below freezing at that time and only very light pcpn
if any left.

TES
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

IFR/low end MVFR to persist across forecast area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage between 21z Tuesday and 00z
Wednesday, then to veer to the north after 03z-05z Wednesday.
Through forecast period, best chances of precipitation will be
just south of taf sites, so kept mention out for now. Cigs to lift
to VFR between 10z-16z Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL:
IFR/low end MVFR to persist across metro area ahead of cold
front with winds picking up from the southwest. Winds to veer to
the west with frontal passage after 00z Wednesday, then to veer
to the north after 05z Wednesday. Through forecast period, best
chances of precipitation will be just south of metro area, so kept
mention out for now. Cigs to lift to VFR by 16z Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 031727
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR conditions will be the rule this afternoon, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of an approaching front. Exact
timing of the front will be a challenge, but mid evening looks to
be the rule for now.

As that front passes, expect a period of gusty north winds. In
addition, areas of rain will develop across the region, with a
transition to freezing rain and then a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain as temperatures cool. A change to all snow is then
expected tomorrow; that change should occur during the mid morning
hours for SGF and JLN, and late morning or early afternoon for
BBG. Again, exact timing is a challenge. Once the change to all
snow takes place, expected widespread IFR or LIFR vis.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KSGF 031727
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR conditions will be the rule this afternoon, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of an approaching front. Exact
timing of the front will be a challenge, but mid evening looks to
be the rule for now.

As that front passes, expect a period of gusty north winds. In
addition, areas of rain will develop across the region, with a
transition to freezing rain and then a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain as temperatures cool. A change to all snow is then
expected tomorrow; that change should occur during the mid morning
hours for SGF and JLN, and late morning or early afternoon for
BBG. Again, exact timing is a challenge. Once the change to all
snow takes place, expected widespread IFR or LIFR vis.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 031727
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR conditions will be the rule this afternoon, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of an approaching front. Exact
timing of the front will be a challenge, but mid evening looks to
be the rule for now.

As that front passes, expect a period of gusty north winds. In
addition, areas of rain will develop across the region, with a
transition to freezing rain and then a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain as temperatures cool. A change to all snow is then
expected tomorrow; that change should occur during the mid morning
hours for SGF and JLN, and late morning or early afternoon for
BBG. Again, exact timing is a challenge. Once the change to all
snow takes place, expected widespread IFR or LIFR vis.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell








000
FXUS63 KLSX 031325
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
725 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 725 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Surface temperatures have begun to rise in earnest over central
and parts of northeast MO during the past hour as winds have
turned more from the due south. Further east, winds remain from
the SE and any temp rises, if any, have been much less. The
location of the 32F isotherm extends from just south of Kirksville
(IRK) southeastward to the northern STL Metro area and east
towards Vandalia, IL. We anticipate some acceleration in the
warming to expand areawide over the next hour or two as winds
continue to veer more S and eventually SW.

Couple that with pcpn...models have done a good job with
forecasting our brief light rain/freezing rain event at sunrise
and with little in the way of echo to the west behind it, lots of
very low clouds in its wake filling in behind it, and some weak
low level convergence from warm front slowly lifting north, should
see patchy drizzle for pcpn from time to time thru about early
afternoon.

Putting it all together, currently anticipate being able to allow
the Advisory to expire everywhere at 8am this morning with limited
areas still below freezing at that time and only very light pcpn
if any left.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Light rain still expected to develop into the STL metro area early
this morning and should be to the east of the area by 15z. By the
time it does develop, temps should be above freezing, however, and
have went with plain rain for a pcpn-type. UIN the exception and
have gone with FZDZ thru 14z before ending. MVFR CIGs currently
the rule at the TAF sites, but IFR CIGs closing in on all sides
and anticipate them to prevail in the next hour or two. Low CIGs
to then prevail thru the day and into early this evening with some
improvement back to MVFR CIGs expected from the anticipated
morning IFR. A cold front then moves thru late this afternoon and
early this evening, and with the drier air, result in improving
categories to VFR during the night. A quick shot of rain expected
behind the front for areas S and E of STL, and have thus added to
the CPS TAF and may need to be expanded to the other STL metro
sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Light rain to develop imminently and continue
until 14/15z, with IFR CIGs developing on the backside. IFR to
then continue into midday before some improvement. A cold front
then moves thru early this evening, and with the drier air,
result in improving categories to VFR during the night. A quick
shot of rain expected behind the front for areas S and E of STL,
and may need to be expanded to this terminal.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Audrain
     MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 031325
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
725 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 725 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Surface temperatures have begun to rise in earnest over central
and parts of northeast MO during the past hour as winds have
turned more from the due south. Further east, winds remain from
the SE and any temp rises, if any, have been much less. The
location of the 32F isotherm extends from just south of Kirksville
(IRK) southeastward to the northern STL Metro area and east
towards Vandalia, IL. We anticipate some acceleration in the
warming to expand areawide over the next hour or two as winds
continue to veer more S and eventually SW.

Couple that with pcpn...models have done a good job with
forecasting our brief light rain/freezing rain event at sunrise
and with little in the way of echo to the west behind it, lots of
very low clouds in its wake filling in behind it, and some weak
low level convergence from warm front slowly lifting north, should
see patchy drizzle for pcpn from time to time thru about early
afternoon.

Putting it all together, currently anticipate being able to allow
the Advisory to expire everywhere at 8am this morning with limited
areas still below freezing at that time and only very light pcpn
if any left.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Light rain still expected to develop into the STL metro area early
this morning and should be to the east of the area by 15z. By the
time it does develop, temps should be above freezing, however, and
have went with plain rain for a pcpn-type. UIN the exception and
have gone with FZDZ thru 14z before ending. MVFR CIGs currently
the rule at the TAF sites, but IFR CIGs closing in on all sides
and anticipate them to prevail in the next hour or two. Low CIGs
to then prevail thru the day and into early this evening with some
improvement back to MVFR CIGs expected from the anticipated
morning IFR. A cold front then moves thru late this afternoon and
early this evening, and with the drier air, result in improving
categories to VFR during the night. A quick shot of rain expected
behind the front for areas S and E of STL, and have thus added to
the CPS TAF and may need to be expanded to the other STL metro
sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Light rain to develop imminently and continue
until 14/15z, with IFR CIGs developing on the backside. IFR to
then continue into midday before some improvement. A cold front
then moves thru early this evening, and with the drier air,
result in improving categories to VFR during the night. A quick
shot of rain expected behind the front for areas S and E of STL,
and may need to be expanded to this terminal.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Audrain
     MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.

Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.

Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.

Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.

Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.

Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.

Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.

Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.

Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KLSX 031133
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Light rain still expected to develop into the STL metro area early
this morning and should be to the east of the area by 15z. By the
time it does develop, temps should be above freezing, however, and
have went with plain rain for a pcpn-type. UIN the exception and
have gone with FZDZ thru 14z before ending. MVFR CIGs currently
the rule at the TAF sites, but IFR CIGs closing in on all sides
and anticipate them to prevail in the next hour or two. Low CIGs
to then prevail thru the day and into early this evening with some
improvement back to MVFR CIGs expected from the anticipated
morning IFR. A cold front then moves thru late this afternoon and
early this evening, and with the drier air, result in improving
categories to VFR during the night. A quick shot of rain expected
behind the front for areas S and E of STL, and have thus added to
the CPS TAF and may need to be expanded to the other STL metro
sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Light rain to develop imminently and continue
until 14/15z, with IFR CIGs developing on the backside. IFR to
then continue into midday before some improvement. A cold front
then moves thru early this evening, and with the drier air,
result in improving categories to VFR during the night. A quick
shot of rain expected behind the front for areas S and E of STL,
and may need to be expanded to this terminal.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Audrain
     MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031133
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Light rain still expected to develop into the STL metro area early
this morning and should be to the east of the area by 15z. By the
time it does develop, temps should be above freezing, however, and
have went with plain rain for a pcpn-type. UIN the exception and
have gone with FZDZ thru 14z before ending. MVFR CIGs currently
the rule at the TAF sites, but IFR CIGs closing in on all sides
and anticipate them to prevail in the next hour or two. Low CIGs
to then prevail thru the day and into early this evening with some
improvement back to MVFR CIGs expected from the anticipated
morning IFR. A cold front then moves thru late this afternoon and
early this evening, and with the drier air, result in improving
categories to VFR during the night. A quick shot of rain expected
behind the front for areas S and E of STL, and have thus added to
the CPS TAF and may need to be expanded to the other STL metro
sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Light rain to develop imminently and continue
until 14/15z, with IFR CIGs developing on the backside. IFR to
then continue into midday before some improvement. A cold front
then moves thru early this evening, and with the drier air,
result in improving categories to VFR during the night. A quick
shot of rain expected behind the front for areas S and E of STL,
and may need to be expanded to this terminal.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Audrain
     MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 031133
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Light rain still expected to develop into the STL metro area early
this morning and should be to the east of the area by 15z. By the
time it does develop, temps should be above freezing, however, and
have went with plain rain for a pcpn-type. UIN the exception and
have gone with FZDZ thru 14z before ending. MVFR CIGs currently
the rule at the TAF sites, but IFR CIGs closing in on all sides
and anticipate them to prevail in the next hour or two. Low CIGs
to then prevail thru the day and into early this evening with some
improvement back to MVFR CIGs expected from the anticipated
morning IFR. A cold front then moves thru late this afternoon and
early this evening, and with the drier air, result in improving
categories to VFR during the night. A quick shot of rain expected
behind the front for areas S and E of STL, and have thus added to
the CPS TAF and may need to be expanded to the other STL metro
sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Light rain to develop imminently and continue
until 14/15z, with IFR CIGs developing on the backside. IFR to
then continue into midday before some improvement. A cold front
then moves thru early this evening, and with the drier air,
result in improving categories to VFR during the night. A quick
shot of rain expected behind the front for areas S and E of STL,
and may need to be expanded to this terminal.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Audrain
     MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031133
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Light rain still expected to develop into the STL metro area early
this morning and should be to the east of the area by 15z. By the
time it does develop, temps should be above freezing, however, and
have went with plain rain for a pcpn-type. UIN the exception and
have gone with FZDZ thru 14z before ending. MVFR CIGs currently
the rule at the TAF sites, but IFR CIGs closing in on all sides
and anticipate them to prevail in the next hour or two. Low CIGs
to then prevail thru the day and into early this evening with some
improvement back to MVFR CIGs expected from the anticipated
morning IFR. A cold front then moves thru late this afternoon and
early this evening, and with the drier air, result in improving
categories to VFR during the night. A quick shot of rain expected
behind the front for areas S and E of STL, and have thus added to
the CPS TAF and may need to be expanded to the other STL metro
sites.

Specifics for KSTL: Light rain to develop imminently and continue
until 14/15z, with IFR CIGs developing on the backside. IFR to
then continue into midday before some improvement. A cold front
then moves thru early this evening, and with the drier air,
result in improving categories to VFR during the night. A quick
shot of rain expected behind the front for areas S and E of STL,
and may need to be expanded to this terminal.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Audrain
     MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 031132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR conditions will continue for the next few hours at TAF sites
before mist/drizzle ends and low ceilings slowly improve to MVFR.
Uncertainty exists with ceilings heights by late this morning into the
afternoon, but should see some form of MVFR nearby terminals. Overall
should see ceilings return to high-end MVFR or even VFR this
evening/overnight, but timing is uncertain. Otherwise, wind will
remain gusty today and gradually veer as a cold front
approaches/moves through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 031132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR conditions will continue for the next few hours at TAF sites
before mist/drizzle ends and low ceilings slowly improve to MVFR.
Uncertainty exists with ceilings heights by late this morning into the
afternoon, but should see some form of MVFR nearby terminals. Overall
should see ceilings return to high-end MVFR or even VFR this
evening/overnight, but timing is uncertain. Otherwise, wind will
remain gusty today and gradually veer as a cold front
approaches/moves through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KEAX 031132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR conditions will continue for the next few hours at TAF sites
before mist/drizzle ends and low ceilings slowly improve to MVFR.
Uncertainty exists with ceilings heights by late this morning into the
afternoon, but should see some form of MVFR nearby terminals. Overall
should see ceilings return to high-end MVFR or even VFR this
evening/overnight, but timing is uncertain. Otherwise, wind will
remain gusty today and gradually veer as a cold front
approaches/moves through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair








000
FXUS63 KLSX 031004
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
404 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front. As
temperatures rise late overnight and towards morning, the freezing
rain will transition over to rain. The onset of MVFR and IFR
ceilings has been a bit slower than previously anticipated.
Initially southeasterly to southerly winds will become
southwesterly during the day, then turn sharply northwesterly
after a cold front moves through the area towards the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front at
TAF issuance. As temperatures rise late overnight and towards
morning, the freezing rain will transition over to rain. Although
the onset of MVFR and IFR cigs has been a bit slower than
previously anticipated, upstream METARs do show lower cigs
occurring with and behind the precip. Initially southeasterly to
southerly winds will become southwesterly during the day, then
turn sharply northwesterly after a cold front moves through the
area on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Audrain
     MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 031004
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
404 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front. As
temperatures rise late overnight and towards morning, the freezing
rain will transition over to rain. The onset of MVFR and IFR
ceilings has been a bit slower than previously anticipated.
Initially southeasterly to southerly winds will become
southwesterly during the day, then turn sharply northwesterly
after a cold front moves through the area towards the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front at
TAF issuance. As temperatures rise late overnight and towards
morning, the freezing rain will transition over to rain. Although
the onset of MVFR and IFR cigs has been a bit slower than
previously anticipated, upstream METARs do show lower cigs
occurring with and behind the precip. Initially southeasterly to
southerly winds will become southwesterly during the day, then
turn sharply northwesterly after a cold front moves through the
area on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Audrain
     MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 031004
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
404 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front. As
temperatures rise late overnight and towards morning, the freezing
rain will transition over to rain. The onset of MVFR and IFR
ceilings has been a bit slower than previously anticipated.
Initially southeasterly to southerly winds will become
southwesterly during the day, then turn sharply northwesterly
after a cold front moves through the area towards the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front at
TAF issuance. As temperatures rise late overnight and towards
morning, the freezing rain will transition over to rain. Although
the onset of MVFR and IFR cigs has been a bit slower than
previously anticipated, upstream METARs do show lower cigs
occurring with and behind the precip. Initially southeasterly to
southerly winds will become southwesterly during the day, then
turn sharply northwesterly after a cold front moves through the
area on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Audrain
     MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 031004
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
404 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

At 09z, the critical 32F isotherm was draped near I-70 in MO and
then curved southeastward near the MS river with much of IL at or
below freezing.  There remains a decent dewpoint depression of
around 10 degrees in place for many locations, giving some room to
spare when pcpn does get going, to prevent too great of a temp rise
too soon.  SE surface winds are already in place, though, resulting
in some weak WAA.

The models are in decent agreement on a batch of light pcpn
developing over central MO in the next couple hours and then
propagating eastward down I-70 into STL metro and into southwestern
IL, developing and growing as it does so.  Given the decent dewpoint
depressions, the pcpn development should act to counter or severely
retard any temp rises for the next several hours until it passes
thru by mid-late morning.  This could be a key point, with the 32F
isotherm not really expected to budge much thru about 12-13z/06-07am
and should result in light FZRA/FZDZ for many areas near and north
of I-70 with the potential for a light glazing still in place.
While ice accums look to be pretty spotty for areas outside of
northeast MO and west-central IL, will maintain current alignment of
the Winter Wx Advisory since brief FZRA periods are still expected
throughout these areas.

Once we get past mid-late morning, the midday and afternoon hours
look pretty quiet from a sensible wx perspective with spotty drizzle
perhaps the only pcpn expected.  Pcpn for the event heading into
tonight will try to get going very late this afternoon but should
largely hold off until after sundown.

Cloudy skies will limit the warmup we could have, but gusty S-SW
winds will do their part, with temp readings ranging from the 40s
north of I-70, to the lower 50s for many areas south.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

Cold front will drop southeast of our forecast area this evening.
Rain will continue this evening across southeast MO and southwest
IL, mainly southeast of STL due to low-mid level warm air advection
ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves along with mid level
frontogenesis behind the surface front.  As the initially shallow
cold layer progresses southeastward the rain will change to freezing
rain, then briefly to sleet and finally to snow late tonight.  There
will likely be some minor ice and snow/sleet accumulations late
tonight southeast of STL.  Precipitation should ramp up on Wednesday
as a positively tilted upper level trough approaches with increasing
upper level divergence across our area in the right entrance region
of an upper level jet streak over the Great Lakes region.  The
strongest low-mid level warm air advection along with the best low
level moisture should continue to be across southeast MO and
southwest IL.  The NAM model appears a little too strong with this
low level forcing and also stronger with a southern stream shortwave
and hence has more qpf as well as its precipitation extending a
little further north than the other models.  Went closer to the
ECMWF model solution for Wednesday and Wednesday night as its a
compromise between the NAM and the GFS which has the precipitation
shield further south and is also lighter on the amounts.  There will
continue to be sleet and freezing rain Wednesday morning across
southeast MO and southwest IL, but as the cold layer deepens and the
elevated warm layer shrinks the precipitation should change over to
all snow by Wednesday afternoon.  The snow will taper off by late
Wednesday night and shift southeast of our forecast area.  With
still plenty of model uncertainty with regards to precipitation
amounts and how far north the significant snow will extend will just
issue a winter storm watch for Wednesday and Wednesday evening for a
small portion of southeast MO and southwest IL where there will be
at least a light glazing of ice Wednesday morning followed by the
potential of a total snow accumulation of around 4 to 7 inches.
Little diurnal temperature rise is expected on Wednesday with cold
air advection along with cloud cover and precipitation.  Wednesday
night and Thursday will be unseasonably cold as the strong surface
high moves southeastward through the region with the models dropping
the -16 degree C 850 mb isotherm southward to just south of STL by
Thursday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected by Friday as the
surface wind comes around to a southerly direction as the surface
ridge shifts east of our area.  A weak cold front will move
southeastward through the forecast area on Saturday and Saturday
evening, but it appears that any precipitation will remain northeast
of our forecast area ahead of a northern stream shortwave and in the
vicinity of an associated surface low.  Only slight cooling is
expected for the remainder of the weekend after passage of the cold
front, mainly across northeast MO and west central IL. Temperatures
for the weekend into early next week should be close to seasonal
normals for early March.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front. As
temperatures rise late overnight and towards morning, the freezing
rain will transition over to rain. The onset of MVFR and IFR
ceilings has been a bit slower than previously anticipated.
Initially southeasterly to southerly winds will become
southwesterly during the day, then turn sharply northwesterly
after a cold front moves through the area towards the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front at
TAF issuance. As temperatures rise late overnight and towards
morning, the freezing rain will transition over to rain. Although
the onset of MVFR and IFR cigs has been a bit slower than
previously anticipated, upstream METARs do show lower cigs
occurring with and behind the precip. Initially southeasterly to
southerly winds will become southwesterly during the day, then
turn sharply northwesterly after a cold front moves through the
area on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Ste. Genevieve MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Audrain
     MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR Randolph IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Adams IL-
     Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 030924
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
324 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR ceilings spread across the terminals late Monday evening as
moisture moved north of the Gulf. Ceilings are expected to build down
into the IFR range early this morning as still more strong moisture
advection occurs. This will likely bring some light mist to the
terminals with the lower ceilings, though surface temperatures above
freezing overnight will keep any icing form occurring. Gusty
southwest winds will develop after sunrise, but will calm some and
switch to the northwest Tuesday afternoon as a surface trough moves
through ushering in a return of cold temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 030924
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
324 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR ceilings spread across the terminals late Monday evening as
moisture moved north of the Gulf. Ceilings are expected to build down
into the IFR range early this morning as still more strong moisture
advection occurs. This will likely bring some light mist to the
terminals with the lower ceilings, though surface temperatures above
freezing overnight will keep any icing form occurring. Gusty
southwest winds will develop after sunrise, but will calm some and
switch to the northwest Tuesday afternoon as a surface trough moves
through ushering in a return of cold temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 030924
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
324 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR ceilings spread across the terminals late Monday evening as
moisture moved north of the Gulf. Ceilings are expected to build down
into the IFR range early this morning as still more strong moisture
advection occurs. This will likely bring some light mist to the
terminals with the lower ceilings, though surface temperatures above
freezing overnight will keep any icing form occurring. Gusty
southwest winds will develop after sunrise, but will calm some and
switch to the northwest Tuesday afternoon as a surface trough moves
through ushering in a return of cold temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 030924
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
324 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Temperatures across the forecast area remain in the
lower to middle 30s as of this morning. A fine mist to light showers
will continue to overspread the area. The coolest air temperatures
remain over far northeast Missouri, where some light light freezing
drizzle/rain remains possible. Any potential ice accumulation should
be light, on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch, and with
road temps averaging 31-33 degrees in northeast MO, most ice should
be regulated to elevated surfaces, limiting impacts. Primary concern
will end around sunrise as air temperatures warm above freezing.
Otherwise, majority of precipitation will be during the morning
hours before drier air moves into the area this afternoon. Highs
will range from the lower to upper 40s, with a couple locations
perhaps sneaking to 50 degrees. Low clouds will begin to clear late
this afternoon into tonight, leaving mid/high clouds. Lows tonight
will fall into the teens to lower 20s.

Wednesday/Wed Night: Increasing ascent from the phasing of the
approaching upper trough over the Northern Plains and the vorticity
maximum over West Texas, with residual moisture, will lead to
post-frontal precipitation developing Wednesday morning over west
central Missouri and east central Kansas, generally along and south
of the Interstate 70 corridor. Forecast soundings support all snow,
with total snowfall amounts averaging one-half inch or less. Expect
to see a fairly sharp snowfall cutoff on the north side of the
precipitation with drier air advecting into the area upon northerly
winds. With the persistent mid/high cloudiness and cold air
advection, highs will remain unseasonably cold, with readings in the
20s. The cold airmass will be firmly in place by Wednesday night,
and as surface high pressure builds into the region, surface wind
speeds will weaken and skies will become mostly clear, allowing for
decent radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the single digits to
the lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The extended time looks to be benign with a general warming trend
through the period. Thursday will be the coldest day of the period
as the upper level trough which brought the weather to the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday finally moves through the area on Thursday
morning. This will leave the area under northwest flow aloft while
at the surface Canadian high pressure will move into the forecast
area. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s which in 15 to 20
degrees below normal for the beginning of March. However, Thursday
night, high pressure will slide to the east and flow at the surface
will increase out of the southwest on Friday. This will occur as
northwest flow aloft also relaxes allowing highs to return to normal
from the mid 40s to near 50. An upper level trough will move across
the Upper Midwest on Saturday which will force a weak cold front
through the area. However, cold air behind this front will be absent
and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to remain in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Saturday night a fast moving area of high pressure
will move through the area and southwest flow will return in its
wake on Sunday. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Monday, upper level ridging that has resided across the
western CONUS will begin to build into the area. This will set the
stage for what right now looks to be a very mild week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR ceilings spread across the terminals late Monday evening as
moisture moved north of the Gulf. Ceilings are expected to build down
into the IFR range early this morning as still more strong moisture
advection occurs. This will likely bring some light mist to the
terminals with the lower ceilings, though surface temperatures above
freezing overnight will keep any icing form occurring. Gusty
southwest winds will develop after sunrise, but will calm some and
switch to the northwest Tuesday afternoon as a surface trough moves
through ushering in a return of cold temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.

Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.

Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.

This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.

For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.

NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.

Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.

Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 030604
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1204 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 916 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

No major changes to going forecast tonight. Did delay onset of
higher PoPs but still expect at least some scattered development
within the next several hours so left likely PoPs going for late
tonight. Temperatures are on track indicating precipitation for
the eastern and northern half of the area will most likely at
least initially be freezing rain. Sleet still appears possible
across the far north due to cooler temps aloft.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarily retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front. As
temperatures rise late overnight and towards morning, the freezing
rain will transition over to rain. The onset of MVFR and IFR
ceilings has been a bit slower than previously anticipated.
Initially southeasterly to southerly winds will become
southwesterly during the day, then turn sharply northwesterly
after a cold front moves through the area towards the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front at
TAF issuance. As temperatures rise late overnight and towards
morning, the freezing rain will transition over to rain. Although
the onset of MVFR and IFR cigs has been a bit slower than
previously anticipated, upstream METARs do show lower cigs
occurring with and behind the precip. Initially southeasterly to
southerly winds will become southwesterly during the day, then
turn sharply northwesterly after a cold front moves through the
area on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery
     MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 030604
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1204 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 916 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

No major changes to going forecast tonight. Did delay onset of
higher PoPs but still expect at least some scattered development
within the next several hours so left likely PoPs going for late
tonight. Temperatures are on track indicating precipitation for
the eastern and northern half of the area will most likely at
least initially be freezing rain. Sleet still appears possible
across the far north due to cooler temps aloft.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarily retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front. As
temperatures rise late overnight and towards morning, the freezing
rain will transition over to rain. The onset of MVFR and IFR
ceilings has been a bit slower than previously anticipated.
Initially southeasterly to southerly winds will become
southwesterly during the day, then turn sharply northwesterly
after a cold front moves through the area towards the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front at
TAF issuance. As temperatures rise late overnight and towards
morning, the freezing rain will transition over to rain. Although
the onset of MVFR and IFR cigs has been a bit slower than
previously anticipated, upstream METARs do show lower cigs
occurring with and behind the precip. Initially southeasterly to
southerly winds will become southwesterly during the day, then
turn sharply northwesterly after a cold front moves through the
area on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery
     MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 030604
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1204 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 916 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

No major changes to going forecast tonight. Did delay onset of
higher PoPs but still expect at least some scattered development
within the next several hours so left likely PoPs going for late
tonight. Temperatures are on track indicating precipitation for
the eastern and northern half of the area will most likely at
least initially be freezing rain. Sleet still appears possible
across the far north due to cooler temps aloft.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarily retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front. As
temperatures rise late overnight and towards morning, the freezing
rain will transition over to rain. The onset of MVFR and IFR
ceilings has been a bit slower than previously anticipated.
Initially southeasterly to southerly winds will become
southwesterly during the day, then turn sharply northwesterly
after a cold front moves through the area towards the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front at
TAF issuance. As temperatures rise late overnight and towards
morning, the freezing rain will transition over to rain. Although
the onset of MVFR and IFR cigs has been a bit slower than
previously anticipated, upstream METARs do show lower cigs
occurring with and behind the precip. Initially southeasterly to
southerly winds will become southwesterly during the day, then
turn sharply northwesterly after a cold front moves through the
area on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery
     MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 030604
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1204 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 916 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

No major changes to going forecast tonight. Did delay onset of
higher PoPs but still expect at least some scattered development
within the next several hours so left likely PoPs going for late
tonight. Temperatures are on track indicating precipitation for
the eastern and northern half of the area will most likely at
least initially be freezing rain. Sleet still appears possible
across the far north due to cooler temps aloft.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarily retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front. As
temperatures rise late overnight and towards morning, the freezing
rain will transition over to rain. The onset of MVFR and IFR
ceilings has been a bit slower than previously anticipated.
Initially southeasterly to southerly winds will become
southwesterly during the day, then turn sharply northwesterly
after a cold front moves through the area towards the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front at
TAF issuance. As temperatures rise late overnight and towards
morning, the freezing rain will transition over to rain. Although
the onset of MVFR and IFR cigs has been a bit slower than
previously anticipated, upstream METARs do show lower cigs
occurring with and behind the precip. Initially southeasterly to
southerly winds will become southwesterly during the day, then
turn sharply northwesterly after a cold front moves through the
area on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery
     MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 030604
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1204 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 916 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

No major changes to going forecast tonight. Did delay onset of
higher PoPs but still expect at least some scattered development
within the next several hours so left likely PoPs going for late
tonight. Temperatures are on track indicating precipitation for
the eastern and northern half of the area will most likely at
least initially be freezing rain. Sleet still appears possible
across the far north due to cooler temps aloft.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarily retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front. As
temperatures rise late overnight and towards morning, the freezing
rain will transition over to rain. The onset of MVFR and IFR
ceilings has been a bit slower than previously anticipated.
Initially southeasterly to southerly winds will become
southwesterly during the day, then turn sharply northwesterly
after a cold front moves through the area towards the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front at
TAF issuance. As temperatures rise late overnight and towards
morning, the freezing rain will transition over to rain. Although
the onset of MVFR and IFR cigs has been a bit slower than
previously anticipated, upstream METARs do show lower cigs
occurring with and behind the precip. Initially southeasterly to
southerly winds will become southwesterly during the day, then
turn sharply northwesterly after a cold front moves through the
area on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery
     MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 030604
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1204 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 916 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

No major changes to going forecast tonight. Did delay onset of
higher PoPs but still expect at least some scattered development
within the next several hours so left likely PoPs going for late
tonight. Temperatures are on track indicating precipitation for
the eastern and northern half of the area will most likely at
least initially be freezing rain. Sleet still appears possible
across the far north due to cooler temps aloft.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarily retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front. As
temperatures rise late overnight and towards morning, the freezing
rain will transition over to rain. The onset of MVFR and IFR
ceilings has been a bit slower than previously anticipated.
Initially southeasterly to southerly winds will become
southwesterly during the day, then turn sharply northwesterly
after a cold front moves through the area towards the end of the
valid TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light freezing rain was spreading
northeastward across the region ahead of a lifting warm front at
TAF issuance. As temperatures rise late overnight and towards
morning, the freezing rain will transition over to rain. Although
the onset of MVFR and IFR cigs has been a bit slower than
previously anticipated, upstream METARs do show lower cigs
occurring with and behind the precip. Initially southeasterly to
southerly winds will become southwesterly during the day, then
turn sharply northwesterly after a cold front moves through the
area on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery
     MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points.  As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points.  As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points.  As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points.  As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points.  As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points.  As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points.  As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points.  As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points.  As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points.  As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA






000
FXUS63 KEAX 030527
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For tonight, strong warm and moist advection is expected to develop
which will lead to areas of light rain and drizzle over most of the
forecast area. The biggest challenge is how cool temperatures become
late this evening and early tonight across northern Missouri and
whether precipitation moves into that area with temperatures below
freezing. The latest thinking is that temperatures will fall into the
30 to 32 degree range in northern Missouri prior to midnight with a
chance for light precipitation to move into the area coinciding with
these sub- freezing temperatures. With the strong warm advection,
temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across northern
Missouri in the midnight to 6 am time frame. While this would
effectively end potential for freezing drizzle/rain, there is the
potential for light glazing in the far northeastern portions of the
forecast area. The other issue overnight is that forecast soundings show
a relatively deep mid-layer of dry air. This suggest that ice
crystals may have a difficult time reaching the lower saturated
level, meaning drizzle/freezing drizzle or very light rain/freezing
rain wold be the most likely precipitation types. But there may be
enough lift to increase the potential of this dry layer to fill in
and thus increase the amount of precipitation. Overall, while this
looks like a minor impact event given the late night timing and
warming temperatures, feel a small winter weather advisory is needed
for parts of northern and northeastern Missouri.

A nice warm up is expected for Tuesday ahead of the next front.
While it looks like it will be cloudy with showers around, strong
warm advection should yield temperatures in the upper 40s to lower
50s. A cold front will move through the area late in the day with
much cooler temperatures moving in late in the afternoon and
evening. As temperatures cool down behind the front, snow is
expected to develop across our far southern zones and into southern
Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, only a dusting is
expected as the heavier amounts should be well to the south of the
forecast area.

The remainder of the forecast, from Thursday through the weekend,
looks quiet at this point time. Temperatures look to be closer to
normal or above normal from Friday through Sunday. While the area
looks to return to a general northwest flow aloft regime, low-level
flow will generally be from the west to southwest, allowing for
warmer air aloft to advect into the region. This in turn should
allow the region to climb into the lower 50s Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR ceilings spread across the terminals late Monday evening as
moisture moved north of the Gulf. Ceilings are expected to build down
into the IFR range early this morning as still more strong moisture
advection occurs. This will likely bring some light mist to the
terminals with the lower ceilings, though surface temperatures above
freezing overnight will keep any icing form occurring. Gusty
southwest winds will develop after sunrise, but will calm some and
switch to the northwest Tuesday afternoon as a surface trough moves
through ushering in a return of cold temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR MOZ007-008-
     016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 030527
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For tonight, strong warm and moist advection is expected to develop
which will lead to areas of light rain and drizzle over most of the
forecast area. The biggest challenge is how cool temperatures become
late this evening and early tonight across northern Missouri and
whether precipitation moves into that area with temperatures below
freezing. The latest thinking is that temperatures will fall into the
30 to 32 degree range in northern Missouri prior to midnight with a
chance for light precipitation to move into the area coinciding with
these sub- freezing temperatures. With the strong warm advection,
temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across northern
Missouri in the midnight to 6 am time frame. While this would
effectively end potential for freezing drizzle/rain, there is the
potential for light glazing in the far northeastern portions of the
forecast area. The other issue overnight is that forecast soundings show
a relatively deep mid-layer of dry air. This suggest that ice
crystals may have a difficult time reaching the lower saturated
level, meaning drizzle/freezing drizzle or very light rain/freezing
rain wold be the most likely precipitation types. But there may be
enough lift to increase the potential of this dry layer to fill in
and thus increase the amount of precipitation. Overall, while this
looks like a minor impact event given the late night timing and
warming temperatures, feel a small winter weather advisory is needed
for parts of northern and northeastern Missouri.

A nice warm up is expected for Tuesday ahead of the next front.
While it looks like it will be cloudy with showers around, strong
warm advection should yield temperatures in the upper 40s to lower
50s. A cold front will move through the area late in the day with
much cooler temperatures moving in late in the afternoon and
evening. As temperatures cool down behind the front, snow is
expected to develop across our far southern zones and into southern
Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, only a dusting is
expected as the heavier amounts should be well to the south of the
forecast area.

The remainder of the forecast, from Thursday through the weekend,
looks quiet at this point time. Temperatures look to be closer to
normal or above normal from Friday through Sunday. While the area
looks to return to a general northwest flow aloft regime, low-level
flow will generally be from the west to southwest, allowing for
warmer air aloft to advect into the region. This in turn should
allow the region to climb into the lower 50s Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR ceilings spread across the terminals late Monday evening as
moisture moved north of the Gulf. Ceilings are expected to build down
into the IFR range early this morning as still more strong moisture
advection occurs. This will likely bring some light mist to the
terminals with the lower ceilings, though surface temperatures above
freezing overnight will keep any icing form occurring. Gusty
southwest winds will develop after sunrise, but will calm some and
switch to the northwest Tuesday afternoon as a surface trough moves
through ushering in a return of cold temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR MOZ007-008-
     016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 030527
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For tonight, strong warm and moist advection is expected to develop
which will lead to areas of light rain and drizzle over most of the
forecast area. The biggest challenge is how cool temperatures become
late this evening and early tonight across northern Missouri and
whether precipitation moves into that area with temperatures below
freezing. The latest thinking is that temperatures will fall into the
30 to 32 degree range in northern Missouri prior to midnight with a
chance for light precipitation to move into the area coinciding with
these sub- freezing temperatures. With the strong warm advection,
temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across northern
Missouri in the midnight to 6 am time frame. While this would
effectively end potential for freezing drizzle/rain, there is the
potential for light glazing in the far northeastern portions of the
forecast area. The other issue overnight is that forecast soundings show
a relatively deep mid-layer of dry air. This suggest that ice
crystals may have a difficult time reaching the lower saturated
level, meaning drizzle/freezing drizzle or very light rain/freezing
rain wold be the most likely precipitation types. But there may be
enough lift to increase the potential of this dry layer to fill in
and thus increase the amount of precipitation. Overall, while this
looks like a minor impact event given the late night timing and
warming temperatures, feel a small winter weather advisory is needed
for parts of northern and northeastern Missouri.

A nice warm up is expected for Tuesday ahead of the next front.
While it looks like it will be cloudy with showers around, strong
warm advection should yield temperatures in the upper 40s to lower
50s. A cold front will move through the area late in the day with
much cooler temperatures moving in late in the afternoon and
evening. As temperatures cool down behind the front, snow is
expected to develop across our far southern zones and into southern
Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, only a dusting is
expected as the heavier amounts should be well to the south of the
forecast area.

The remainder of the forecast, from Thursday through the weekend,
looks quiet at this point time. Temperatures look to be closer to
normal or above normal from Friday through Sunday. While the area
looks to return to a general northwest flow aloft regime, low-level
flow will generally be from the west to southwest, allowing for
warmer air aloft to advect into the region. This in turn should
allow the region to climb into the lower 50s Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR ceilings spread across the terminals late Monday evening as
moisture moved north of the Gulf. Ceilings are expected to build down
into the IFR range early this morning as still more strong moisture
advection occurs. This will likely bring some light mist to the
terminals with the lower ceilings, though surface temperatures above
freezing overnight will keep any icing form occurring. Gusty
southwest winds will develop after sunrise, but will calm some and
switch to the northwest Tuesday afternoon as a surface trough moves
through ushering in a return of cold temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR MOZ007-008-
     016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 030527
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For tonight, strong warm and moist advection is expected to develop
which will lead to areas of light rain and drizzle over most of the
forecast area. The biggest challenge is how cool temperatures become
late this evening and early tonight across northern Missouri and
whether precipitation moves into that area with temperatures below
freezing. The latest thinking is that temperatures will fall into the
30 to 32 degree range in northern Missouri prior to midnight with a
chance for light precipitation to move into the area coinciding with
these sub- freezing temperatures. With the strong warm advection,
temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across northern
Missouri in the midnight to 6 am time frame. While this would
effectively end potential for freezing drizzle/rain, there is the
potential for light glazing in the far northeastern portions of the
forecast area. The other issue overnight is that forecast soundings show
a relatively deep mid-layer of dry air. This suggest that ice
crystals may have a difficult time reaching the lower saturated
level, meaning drizzle/freezing drizzle or very light rain/freezing
rain wold be the most likely precipitation types. But there may be
enough lift to increase the potential of this dry layer to fill in
and thus increase the amount of precipitation. Overall, while this
looks like a minor impact event given the late night timing and
warming temperatures, feel a small winter weather advisory is needed
for parts of northern and northeastern Missouri.

A nice warm up is expected for Tuesday ahead of the next front.
While it looks like it will be cloudy with showers around, strong
warm advection should yield temperatures in the upper 40s to lower
50s. A cold front will move through the area late in the day with
much cooler temperatures moving in late in the afternoon and
evening. As temperatures cool down behind the front, snow is
expected to develop across our far southern zones and into southern
Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, only a dusting is
expected as the heavier amounts should be well to the south of the
forecast area.

The remainder of the forecast, from Thursday through the weekend,
looks quiet at this point time. Temperatures look to be closer to
normal or above normal from Friday through Sunday. While the area
looks to return to a general northwest flow aloft regime, low-level
flow will generally be from the west to southwest, allowing for
warmer air aloft to advect into the region. This in turn should
allow the region to climb into the lower 50s Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR ceilings spread across the terminals late Monday evening as
moisture moved north of the Gulf. Ceilings are expected to build down
into the IFR range early this morning as still more strong moisture
advection occurs. This will likely bring some light mist to the
terminals with the lower ceilings, though surface temperatures above
freezing overnight will keep any icing form occurring. Gusty
southwest winds will develop after sunrise, but will calm some and
switch to the northwest Tuesday afternoon as a surface trough moves
through ushering in a return of cold temperatures.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Tuesday FOR MOZ007-008-
     016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KLSX 030318
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
918 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 916 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

No major changes to going forecast tonight. Did delay onset of
higher PoPs but still expect at least some scattered development
within the next several hours so left likely PoPs going for late
tonight. Temperatures are on track indicating precipitation for
the eastern and northern half of the area will most likely at
least initially be freezing rain. Sleet still appears possible
across the far north due to cooler temps aloft.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarly retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KUIN: A lifting warm front will spread warmer air
northward atop the colder air in place at the surface, creating
conditions for freezing rain and sleet for a couple of hours
overnight. There may also be some snow mixed in at times. Ceilings
will likely fall to IFR once precipitation begins. As
temperatures warm up above freezing, the rain will no longer
freeze on contact with colder surfaces. Just beyond the end of the
valid TAF period, winds will turn northwesterly behind a cold
front.

Specifics for KCOU: A lifting warm front will bring rain showers
to the area tonight and tomorrow, but it is possible that
precipitation will remain to the north and east of KCOU. If
any precipitation does occur at KCOU overnight, BUFKIT soundings
indicate that it would initially fall as light freezing rain until
temperatures rise far enough to keep the rain from freezing on
contact with cold surfaces. Ceilings will likely fall to IFR due
to the increasingly moisture and nearby rain showers. Just beyond
the end of the TAF period, a cold front will cause a sharp wind
shift from southwesterly to northwesterly.

Specifics for KSTL, KCPS, KSUS: A warm front will lift through the
region tonight. The warm air aloft spreading over the much colder
air at the surface will produce freezing rain and perhaps even a
brief period of sleet for a couple of hours overnight based on
BUFKIT soundings. The increasingly warm air mass spreading into
the region will eliminate the "freezing" part of the freezing rain
during the morning, but rain showers are expected to continue for
most of the day on Tuesday. Ceilings will likely fall to IFR once
precipitation begins. Even after the rain ends, lingering moisture
should be sufficient for continued IFR ceilings and a few hours of
drizzle until a cold front moves through after 04/00z. Initially
southeasterly winds become southerly then southwesterly behind the
warm front on Tuesday, then turn sharply northwesterly behind the
cold front on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery
     MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 030028
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
628 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarly retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KUIN: A lifting warm front will spread warmer air
northward atop the colder air in place at the surface, creating
conditions for freezing rain and sleet for a couple of hours
overnight. There may also be some snow mixed in at times. Ceilings
will likely fall to IFR once precipitation begins. As
temperatures warm up above freezing, the rain will no longer
freeze on contact with colder surfaces. Just beyond the end of the
valid TAF period, winds will turn northwesterly behind a cold
front.

Specifics for KCOU: A lifting warm front will bring rain showers
to the area tonight and tomorrow, but it is possible that
precipitation will remain to the north and east of KCOU. If
any precipitation does occur at KCOU overnight, BUFKIT soundings
indicate that it would initially fall as light freezing rain until
temperatures rise far enough to keep the rain from freezing on
contact with cold surfaces. Ceilings will likely fall to IFR due
to the increasingly moisture and nearby rain showers. Just beyond
the end of the TAF period, a cold front will cause a sharp wind
shift from southwesterly to northwesterly.

Specifics for KSTL, KCPS, KSUS: A warm front will lift through the
region tonight. The warm air aloft spreading over the much colder
air at the surface will produce freezing rain and perhaps even a
brief period of sleet for a couple of hours overnight based on
BUFKIT soundings. The increasingly warm air mass spreading into
the region will eliminate the "freezing" part of the freezing rain
during the morning, but rain showers are expected to continue for
most of the day on Tuesday. Ceilings will likely fall to IFR once
precipitation begins. Even after the rain ends, lingering moisture
should be sufficient for continued IFR ceilings and a few hours of
drizzle until a cold front moves through after 04/00z. Initially
southeasterly winds become southerly then southwesterly behind the
warm front on Tuesday, then turn sharply northwesterly behind the
cold front on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion
     MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St.
     Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-
     Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-
     Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 030028
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
628 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarly retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Specifics for KUIN: A lifting warm front will spread warmer air
northward atop the colder air in place at the surface, creating
conditions for freezing rain and sleet for a couple of hours
overnight. There may also be some snow mixed in at times. Ceilings
will likely fall to IFR once precipitation begins. As
temperatures warm up above freezing, the rain will no longer
freeze on contact with colder surfaces. Just beyond the end of the
valid TAF period, winds will turn northwesterly behind a cold
front.

Specifics for KCOU: A lifting warm front will bring rain showers
to the area tonight and tomorrow, but it is possible that
precipitation will remain to the north and east of KCOU. If
any precipitation does occur at KCOU overnight, BUFKIT soundings
indicate that it would initially fall as light freezing rain until
temperatures rise far enough to keep the rain from freezing on
contact with cold surfaces. Ceilings will likely fall to IFR due
to the increasingly moisture and nearby rain showers. Just beyond
the end of the TAF period, a cold front will cause a sharp wind
shift from southwesterly to northwesterly.

Specifics for KSTL, KCPS, KSUS: A warm front will lift through the
region tonight. The warm air aloft spreading over the much colder
air at the surface will produce freezing rain and perhaps even a
brief period of sleet for a couple of hours overnight based on
BUFKIT soundings. The increasingly warm air mass spreading into
the region will eliminate the "freezing" part of the freezing rain
during the morning, but rain showers are expected to continue for
most of the day on Tuesday. Ceilings will likely fall to IFR once
precipitation begins. Even after the rain ends, lingering moisture
should be sufficient for continued IFR ceilings and a few hours of
drizzle until a cold front moves through after 04/00z. Initially
southeasterly winds become southerly then southwesterly behind the
warm front on Tuesday, then turn sharply northwesterly behind the
cold front on Tuesday night.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion
     MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St.
     Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-
     Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-
     Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 030000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For tonight, strong warm and moist advection is expected to develop
which will lead to areas of light rain and drizzle over most of the
forecast area. The biggest challenge is how cool temperatures become
late this evening and early tonight across northern Missouri and
whether precipitation moves into that area with temperatures below
freezing. The latest thinking is that temperatures will fall into the
30 to 32 degree range in northern Missouri prior to midnight with a
chance for light precipitation to move into the area coinciding with
these sub- freezing temperatures. With the strong warm advection,
temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across northern
Missouri in the midnight to 6 am time frame. While this would
effectively end potential for freezing drizzle/rain, there is the
potential for light glazing in the far northeastern portions of the
forecast area. The other issue overnight is that forecast soundings show
a relatively deep mid-layer of dry air. This suggest that ice
crystals may have a difficult time reaching the lower saturated
level, meaning drizzle/freezing drizzle or very light rain/freezing
rain wold be the most likely precipitation types. But there may be
enough lift to increase the potential of this dry layer to fill in
and thus increase the amount of precipitation. Overall, while this
looks like a minor impact event given the late night timing and
warming temperatures, feel a small winter weather advisory is needed
for parts of northern and northeastern Missouri.

A nice warm up is expected for Tuesday ahead of the next front.
While it looks like it will be cloudy with showers around, strong
warm advection should yield temperatures in the upper 40s to lower
50s. A cold front will move through the area late in the day with
much cooler temperatures moving in late in the afternoon and
evening. As temperatures cool down behind the front, snow is
expected to develop across our far southern zones and into southern
Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, only a dusting is
expected as the heavier amounts should be well to the south of the
forecast area.

The remainder of the forecast, from Thursday through the weekend,
looks quiet at this point time. Temperatures look to be closer to
normal or above normal from Friday through Sunday. While the area
looks to return to a general northwest flow aloft regime, low-level
flow will generally be from the west to southwest, allowing for
warmer air aloft to advect into the region. This in turn should
allow the region to climb into the lower 50s Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Conditions will begin to deteriorate as next wave of activity from
the south crosses into the area Monday evening. Associated
precipitation will remain light, though with warm air advection from
the south and existing snow cover, could see IFR conditions with
potential fog development. Increased winds will help to mitigate this
factor, so have included MVFR conditions for now, but will monitor
potential for IFR development. As surface temps cool, could see some
areas of freezing rain for KSTJ until midnight, at which point
temperatures will increase with warm air advection. Otherwise, winds
will veer through the period, while becoming gusting Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 030000
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For tonight, strong warm and moist advection is expected to develop
which will lead to areas of light rain and drizzle over most of the
forecast area. The biggest challenge is how cool temperatures become
late this evening and early tonight across northern Missouri and
whether precipitation moves into that area with temperatures below
freezing. The latest thinking is that temperatures will fall into the
30 to 32 degree range in northern Missouri prior to midnight with a
chance for light precipitation to move into the area coinciding with
these sub- freezing temperatures. With the strong warm advection,
temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across northern
Missouri in the midnight to 6 am time frame. While this would
effectively end potential for freezing drizzle/rain, there is the
potential for light glazing in the far northeastern portions of the
forecast area. The other issue overnight is that forecast soundings show
a relatively deep mid-layer of dry air. This suggest that ice
crystals may have a difficult time reaching the lower saturated
level, meaning drizzle/freezing drizzle or very light rain/freezing
rain wold be the most likely precipitation types. But there may be
enough lift to increase the potential of this dry layer to fill in
and thus increase the amount of precipitation. Overall, while this
looks like a minor impact event given the late night timing and
warming temperatures, feel a small winter weather advisory is needed
for parts of northern and northeastern Missouri.

A nice warm up is expected for Tuesday ahead of the next front.
While it looks like it will be cloudy with showers around, strong
warm advection should yield temperatures in the upper 40s to lower
50s. A cold front will move through the area late in the day with
much cooler temperatures moving in late in the afternoon and
evening. As temperatures cool down behind the front, snow is
expected to develop across our far southern zones and into southern
Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, only a dusting is
expected as the heavier amounts should be well to the south of the
forecast area.

The remainder of the forecast, from Thursday through the weekend,
looks quiet at this point time. Temperatures look to be closer to
normal or above normal from Friday through Sunday. While the area
looks to return to a general northwest flow aloft regime, low-level
flow will generally be from the west to southwest, allowing for
warmer air aloft to advect into the region. This in turn should
allow the region to climb into the lower 50s Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Conditions will begin to deteriorate as next wave of activity from
the south crosses into the area Monday evening. Associated
precipitation will remain light, though with warm air advection from
the south and existing snow cover, could see IFR conditions with
potential fog development. Increased winds will help to mitigate this
factor, so have included MVFR conditions for now, but will monitor
potential for IFR development. As surface temps cool, could see some
areas of freezing rain for KSTJ until midnight, at which point
temperatures will increase with warm air advection. Otherwise, winds
will veer through the period, while becoming gusting Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 022332
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
532 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
airmass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dewpoints.  As this airmass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal airmass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR ceilings will be on the downward trend after midnight as warm
advection increases resulting in a prolonged period of IFR
conditions from late tonight through much of Tuesday. Have
maintained drizzle tempo groups transitioning to light rain as
lift increases. Did not have the confidence to include it at this
point but there is a narrow window between 06-09z for some light
freezing precipitation as wet bulbing may bring temperatures below
freezing before warm advection sets in.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Runnels






000
FXUS63 KLSX 022150
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarly retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation will see cigs lower to IFR.
Precip to start off as light freezing rain then transition to rain
between 11z-13z Tuesday as warmer air continues to advect north
into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.

Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation around 07z Tuesday will see cigs
lower to IFR. Precip to start off as light freezing rain then
transition to rain around 11z Tuesday as warmer air continues to
advect north into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.
Cold front to move through metro area around 22z Tuesday as winds
veer to the west. Not sure on coverage of precipitation with
frontal boundary, so just added vcnty shower mention after 22z Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     29  50  20  23 /  60  70  50  40
Quincy          27  41  13  19 /  70  70  10  10
Columbia        32  48  18  24 /  50  50  20  30
Jefferson City  32  50  20  24 /  50  50  20  40
Salem           27  45  23  26 /  70  90  60  50
Farmington      31  49  23  25 /  70  80  70  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion
     MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St.
     Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-
     Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-
     Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 022150
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarly retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation will see cigs lower to IFR.
Precip to start off as light freezing rain then transition to rain
between 11z-13z Tuesday as warmer air continues to advect north
into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.

Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation around 07z Tuesday will see cigs
lower to IFR. Precip to start off as light freezing rain then
transition to rain around 11z Tuesday as warmer air continues to
advect north into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.
Cold front to move through metro area around 22z Tuesday as winds
veer to the west. Not sure on coverage of precipitation with
frontal boundary, so just added vcnty shower mention after 22z Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     29  50  20  23 /  60  70  50  40
Quincy          27  41  13  19 /  70  70  10  10
Columbia        32  48  18  24 /  50  50  20  30
Jefferson City  32  50  20  24 /  50  50  20  40
Salem           27  45  23  26 /  70  90  60  50
Farmington      31  49  23  25 /  70  80  70  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion
     MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St.
     Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-
     Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-
     Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 022150
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Interesting forecast for tonight, as return flow develops in the
wake of the retreating surface ridge.  Resultant WAA/lift and
moisture return should mean precipitation threat ramping up as the
evening progresses, generally right over the CWA and in the
residually cold and relatively dry low level AMS.  Soundings over
the northeast half of the CWA have a produced warm wedge aloft (as
much as +5C around 850mb) with low levels remaining below freezing.
With the above in mind, the key to the forecast is how rapidly
surface temperatures will rebound after a brief bit of cooling this
evening.  Low level warm advection should also be attempting to push
surface temps above freezing with time,  but think that this will be
a rather slow process with the existing snow cover and believe that
the evaporative cooling that occurs once the precip starts may
temporarly retard the slow northward push of the warmer air.  In our
far north, evaporative cooling processes are likely to cause a bit
of sleet and perhaps even some snow to occur along with the freezing
rain.

Although QPF will be quite light, am concerned about the below
freezing surface temps and the cold ground causing icing conditions
on untreated pavement.  Based on this reasoning, have opted to issue
a winter weather advisory for about the northeast half of the CWA
(along and north of a Mexico-St Louis-Salem IL line), where the
coldest surface temps and slightly higher QPF will be co-located.
Uncertain as to exactly when the precip will start, but think the
"heaviest" will likely be during the overnight hours so will begin
the advisory at 06z.   Will run it long enough to the morning rush
hour...14z Tuesday.

Obviously, additions and/or deletions to the advisory area may be
needed as precip and temp trends become a bit more clear.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Once the freezing rain threat ends early, primary forecast concern
on Tuesday is PoP trends, as warm advection continues lift and
moisture transport into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Hard to get a
handle on exact precip trends as lift is rather broad and somewhat
unfocused, but there does seem to be some model consensus that
highest PoPs will become focused over the southeast half of the CWA
heading into the afternoon and early evening, with the strongest
moisture advection and lift along and ahead of approaching cold
front.  Instability looks even more meager than before, so have
removed thunder from forecast.

Winter weather concerns return to the forecast Tuesday night and
Wednesday as next round of cold Canadian air undercuts energetic
southwest flow aloft.  The rain over the southeast half of the CWA
will gradually change over to snow across the southeast half of the
CWA as the low level cloud air deepens, and by Wednesday morning
thermal profiles support all snow across the CWA.

All of the synoptic guidance suggests a potent shortwave ejecting
out of the longwave trof over the southern Rockes and pushing into
the southern Plains during the day on Wednesday.  Resultant WAA over
the top of the deepening cold air to our south is expected to
produce a  band of heavy precip from AR into the lower Ohio River
Valley.  Southern sections of our CWA will be on the northern
fringes of this heavier precip.  The last 2 days the NAM has been
the northern outlier with this band of precip and this trend
continued with the 12z run...so have continued to trend forecast to
the more southward solutions of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF.

Early indications are that snow accumulations of 4-6 inches will be
possible in our far southern areas, but a very slight shift in the
track of the system is going to have a huge impact on exact
amounts.  Coordinated the potential for a winter storm watch, but
since the system is still 2 days away opted to wait another forecast
cycle to see if we can get a better handle on the northern fringes
of the system.  However, snow potential will be highlighted in the
HWO and an SPS.

Current timing of shortwave is such that precip should wind down
rapidly on Wednesday evening across the south. Secondary surge of
colder air in the wake of the shortwave should mean clear, dry and
cold weather heading into Thursday.

(Friday through Monday)

Surface ridge to move to the south allowing southerly winds to
return to the region Thursday night.  After a cold start Friday
morning in the single digits to upper teens, temperatures to
moderate through the extended with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday, rising into the 40s and 50s for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week. Dry conditions to prevail through the period.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation will see cigs lower to IFR.
Precip to start off as light freezing rain then transition to rain
between 11z-13z Tuesday as warmer air continues to advect north
into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.

Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation around 07z Tuesday will see cigs
lower to IFR. Precip to start off as light freezing rain then
transition to rain around 11z Tuesday as warmer air continues to
advect north into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.
Cold front to move through metro area around 22z Tuesday as winds
veer to the west. Not sure on coverage of precipitation with
frontal boundary, so just added vcnty shower mention after 22z Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     29  50  20  23 /  60  70  50  40
Quincy          27  41  13  19 /  70  70  10  10
Columbia        32  48  18  24 /  50  50  20  30
Jefferson City  32  50  20  24 /  50  50  20  40
Salem           27  45  23  26 /  70  90  60  50
Farmington      31  49  23  25 /  70  80  70  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion
     MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-St.
     Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-
     Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-
     Marion IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 022127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
327 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For tonight, strong warm and moist advection is expected to develop
which will lead to areas of light rain and drizzle over most of the
forecast area. The biggest challenge is how cool temperatures become
late this evening and early tonight across northern Missouri and
whether precipitation moves into that area with temperatures below
freezing. The latest thinking is that temperatures will fall into the
30 to 32 degree range in northern Missouri prior to midnight with a
chance for light precipitation to move into the area coinciding with
these sub- freezing temperatures. With the strong warm advection,
temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across northern
Missouri in the midnight to 6 am time frame. While this would
effectively end potential for freezing drizzle/rain, there is the
potential for light glazing in the far northeastern portions of the
forecast area. The other issue overnight is that forecast soundings show
a relatively deep mid-layer of dry air. This suggest that ice
crystals may have a difficult time reaching the lower saturated
level, meaning drizzle/freezing drizzle or very light rain/freezing
rain wold be the most likely precipitation types. But there may be
enough lift to increase the potential of this dry layer to fill in
and thus increase the amount of precipitation. Overall, while this
looks like a minor impact event given the late night timing and
warming temperatures, feel a small winter weather advisory is needed
for parts of northern and northeastern Missouri.

A nice warm up is expected for Tuesday ahead of the next front.
While it looks like it will be cloudy with showers around, strong
warm advection should yield temperatures in the upper 40s to lower
50s. A cold front will move through the area late in the day with
much cooler temperatures moving in late in the afternoon and
evening. As temperatures cool down behind the front, snow is
expected to develop across our far southern zones and into southern
Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, only a dusting is
expected as the heavier amounts should be well to the south of the
forecast area.

The remainder of the forecast, from Thursday through the weekend,
looks quiet at this point time. Temperatures look to be closer to
normal or above normal from Friday through Sunday. While the area
looks to return to a general northwest flow aloft regime, low-level
flow will generally be from the west to southwest, allowing for
warmer air aloft to advect into the region. This in turn should
allow the region to climb into the lower 50s Friday through Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR conditions through this evening are expected to deteriorate
overnight into low MVFR ceilings. Strong warm advection will spread
moisture over the region with light rain or drizzle possible
overnight. It`s possible there may be a brief window for freezing
rain and/or freezing drizzle, but think the strength of the warm
advection will keep any precipitation liquid at the terminals.
Although a few hours of light freezing precipitation is possible
further north late tonight before temperatures warm above freezing in
the pre-dawn hours. Winds will increase from the south this evening
and then veer through the day tomorrow as a cold front approaches.
The frontal timing is expected to occur after 18Z with winds shifting
to the north after that time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 022127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
327 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

For tonight, strong warm and moist advection is expected to develop
which will lead to areas of light rain and drizzle over most of the
forecast area. The biggest challenge is how cool temperatures become
late this evening and early tonight across northern Missouri and
whether precipitation moves into that area with temperatures below
freezing. The latest thinking is that temperatures will fall into the
30 to 32 degree range in northern Missouri prior to midnight with a
chance for light precipitation to move into the area coinciding with
these sub- freezing temperatures. With the strong warm advection,
temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across northern
Missouri in the midnight to 6 am time frame. While this would
effectively end potential for freezing drizzle/rain, there is the
potential for light glazing in the far northeastern portions of the
forecast area. The other issue overnight is that forecast soundings show
a relatively deep mid-layer of dry air. This suggest that ice
crystals may have a difficult time reaching the lower saturated
level, meaning drizzle/freezing drizzle or very light rain/freezing
rain wold be the most likely precipitation types. But there may be
enough lift to increase the potential of this dry layer to fill in
and thus increase the amount of precipitation. Overall, while this
looks like a minor impact event given the late night timing and
warming temperatures, feel a small winter weather advisory is needed
for parts of northern and northeastern Missouri.

A nice warm up is expected for Tuesday ahead of the next front.
While it looks like it will be cloudy with showers around, strong
warm advection should yield temperatures in the upper 40s to lower
50s. A cold front will move through the area late in the day with
much cooler temperatures moving in late in the afternoon and
evening. As temperatures cool down behind the front, snow is
expected to develop across our far southern zones and into southern
Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now, only a dusting is
expected as the heavier amounts should be well to the south of the
forecast area.

The remainder of the forecast, from Thursday through the weekend,
looks quiet at this point time. Temperatures look to be closer to
normal or above normal from Friday through Sunday. While the area
looks to return to a general northwest flow aloft regime, low-level
flow will generally be from the west to southwest, allowing for
warmer air aloft to advect into the region. This in turn should
allow the region to climb into the lower 50s Friday through Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR conditions through this evening are expected to deteriorate
overnight into low MVFR ceilings. Strong warm advection will spread
moisture over the region with light rain or drizzle possible
overnight. It`s possible there may be a brief window for freezing
rain and/or freezing drizzle, but think the strength of the warm
advection will keep any precipitation liquid at the terminals.
Although a few hours of light freezing precipitation is possible
further north late tonight before temperatures warm above freezing in
the pre-dawn hours. Winds will increase from the south this evening
and then veer through the day tomorrow as a cold front approaches.
The frontal timing is expected to occur after 18Z with winds shifting
to the north after that time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday FOR MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KSGF 022057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
airmass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dewpoints.  As this airmass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal airmass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Terry






000
FXUS63 KSGF 022057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
airmass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dewpoints.  As this airmass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal airmass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Terry






000
FXUS63 KSGF 022057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
airmass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dewpoints.  As this airmass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal airmass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Terry






000
FXUS63 KSGF 022057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
airmass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dewpoints.  As this airmass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal airmass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Terry






000
FXUS63 KSGF 022057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies.  Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.

This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
airmass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dewpoints.  As this airmass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours.  Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours.  While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins.  Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.

Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front.  The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE.  As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday.  While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front.  Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains.  Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen.  Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north.  There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.

Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal airmass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose.  This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow.  The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday.  This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.

So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate.  Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely.  Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now.  Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.

After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week.  The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge.  This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Terry






000
FXUS63 KLSX 021819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Strong ridge of high pressure will move across Missouri into eastern
Illinois and western Indiana today.  Early morning fog should
dissipate within an hour or two of sunrise, and then we`ll see
increasing high clouds into the afternoon.  With wind turning to the
east and then southeast this afternoon and decent insolation, expect
temperatures to rise above freezing across most if not all of the
area.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Monday Night)

Precipitation is expected to develop tonight in response to backing
flow aloft and increasing WAA.  The timing continues to look much
more favorable for after midnight for most locations, with the best
location for precipitation this evening being further west over
central and northeast MO.  While the strength of the warm air aloft
will be enough to result in liquid pcpn for much of the event
tonight, the northern fringes--especially northeast MO and
west-central IL--will likely also receive some sleet as well during
the first few hours.  The predominance of liquid pcpn will also make
surface temps a critical element in separating freezing rain from
rain.  The latest indications are that surface temps will be below
freezing for much of the CWA this evening, but with increasing
southeasterly winds and thickening cloud cover, temps are expected
to rise above freezing by sunrise Tuesday morning.  Freezing rain
should therefore be limited to a few hours or less for many areas,
resulting in a light glaze overnight, and be most persistent for
west-central IL, where ice accums may approach a tenth of an inch.
A Winter Wx Advisory was considered, but with the critical element
of surface temp and lesser impact of overnight occurrence, will let
the day shift take one final look with hopefully better surface temp
confidence before determining the need for any headlines.

(Tuesday)

Thick cloud cover is expected to persist but thanks to southerly
surface winds and rising temps from the previous night, temps should
still rise into the 40s for areas north of I-70 and should get into
the 50s for areas south of I-70.  This represents a bit cooler
forecast than thought earlier.  With this also looks like a bit less
of a thunder threat as well.  Have trimmed thunder to isolated in
coverage and pushed it south to just southern MO and far southern
IL.  A strong cold front will already be pushing into northeast MO
from the northwest by sundown.  WAA pcpn from the previous night
will continue for much of this day, gradually edging east but should
be all non-freezing liquid.  The much drier and colder air moving in
behind the cold front may briefly change any rain over to snow but
pcpn by this time should also be spotty and result in little-no snow
accums.

(Wednesday)

The models are coming into better consensus on handling another pcpn
event for this day.  Strong frontogenesis settling across the
southern half of MO and southern third of IL will couple with a
backbuilding h300 jet that will become cyclonically curved with time
to produce a decent shot of pcpn--especially for southeast MO and
far southern IL.  Enough cold air will be in place by this time to
maintain pcpn-types as all snow.  However, we continue to see a more
northward solution with the NAM, but the others are gradually
trending more northerly.  As far as amounts are concerned, there is
potential for a heavy snow event for parts of southeast MO given the
intense and deep lift that will occur here for several hours with a
sharp northern gradient also given the very dry air to the north.
Current snowfall amounts look to be just below 6" for a storm total
in parts of southeast MO and so will continue to monitor this
closely for the need to issue any winter headlines for this event.
Snowfall amounts further to the north towards STL metro are purely
arbitrary at this point with the anticipated sharp northern cutoff.

(Thursday - Sunday)

The main TROF axis aloft swings thru and shifts the flow from the NW
for the remainder of this period.  A quiet, dry period should
dominate much of this with moderating temps with southerly flow
expected for next weekend.  A shortwave TROF may deliver some pcpn
for next weekend but low confidence to say the least so left dry for
now.

TES
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation will see cigs lower to IFR.
Precip to start off as light freezing rain then transition to rain
between 11z-13z Tuesday as warmer air continues to advect north
into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.

Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation around 07z Tuesday will see cigs
lower to IFR. Precip to start off as light freezing rain then
transition to rain around 11z Tuesday as warmer air continues to
advect north into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.
Cold front to move through metro area around 22z Tuesday as winds
veer to the west. Not sure on coverage of precipitation with
frontal boundary, so just added vcnty shower mention after 22z Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Strong ridge of high pressure will move across Missouri into eastern
Illinois and western Indiana today.  Early morning fog should
dissipate within an hour or two of sunrise, and then we`ll see
increasing high clouds into the afternoon.  With wind turning to the
east and then southeast this afternoon and decent insolation, expect
temperatures to rise above freezing across most if not all of the
area.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Monday Night)

Precipitation is expected to develop tonight in response to backing
flow aloft and increasing WAA.  The timing continues to look much
more favorable for after midnight for most locations, with the best
location for precipitation this evening being further west over
central and northeast MO.  While the strength of the warm air aloft
will be enough to result in liquid pcpn for much of the event
tonight, the northern fringes--especially northeast MO and
west-central IL--will likely also receive some sleet as well during
the first few hours.  The predominance of liquid pcpn will also make
surface temps a critical element in separating freezing rain from
rain.  The latest indications are that surface temps will be below
freezing for much of the CWA this evening, but with increasing
southeasterly winds and thickening cloud cover, temps are expected
to rise above freezing by sunrise Tuesday morning.  Freezing rain
should therefore be limited to a few hours or less for many areas,
resulting in a light glaze overnight, and be most persistent for
west-central IL, where ice accums may approach a tenth of an inch.
A Winter Wx Advisory was considered, but with the critical element
of surface temp and lesser impact of overnight occurrence, will let
the day shift take one final look with hopefully better surface temp
confidence before determining the need for any headlines.

(Tuesday)

Thick cloud cover is expected to persist but thanks to southerly
surface winds and rising temps from the previous night, temps should
still rise into the 40s for areas north of I-70 and should get into
the 50s for areas south of I-70.  This represents a bit cooler
forecast than thought earlier.  With this also looks like a bit less
of a thunder threat as well.  Have trimmed thunder to isolated in
coverage and pushed it south to just southern MO and far southern
IL.  A strong cold front will already be pushing into northeast MO
from the northwest by sundown.  WAA pcpn from the previous night
will continue for much of this day, gradually edging east but should
be all non-freezing liquid.  The much drier and colder air moving in
behind the cold front may briefly change any rain over to snow but
pcpn by this time should also be spotty and result in little-no snow
accums.

(Wednesday)

The models are coming into better consensus on handling another pcpn
event for this day.  Strong frontogenesis settling across the
southern half of MO and southern third of IL will couple with a
backbuilding h300 jet that will become cyclonically curved with time
to produce a decent shot of pcpn--especially for southeast MO and
far southern IL.  Enough cold air will be in place by this time to
maintain pcpn-types as all snow.  However, we continue to see a more
northward solution with the NAM, but the others are gradually
trending more northerly.  As far as amounts are concerned, there is
potential for a heavy snow event for parts of southeast MO given the
intense and deep lift that will occur here for several hours with a
sharp northern gradient also given the very dry air to the north.
Current snowfall amounts look to be just below 6" for a storm total
in parts of southeast MO and so will continue to monitor this
closely for the need to issue any winter headlines for this event.
Snowfall amounts further to the north towards STL metro are purely
arbitrary at this point with the anticipated sharp northern cutoff.

(Thursday - Sunday)

The main TROF axis aloft swings thru and shifts the flow from the NW
for the remainder of this period.  A quiet, dry period should
dominate much of this with moderating temps with southerly flow
expected for next weekend.  A shortwave TROF may deliver some pcpn
for next weekend but low confidence to say the least so left dry for
now.

TES
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation will see cigs lower to IFR.
Precip to start off as light freezing rain then transition to rain
between 11z-13z Tuesday as warmer air continues to advect north
into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.

Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation around 07z Tuesday will see cigs
lower to IFR. Precip to start off as light freezing rain then
transition to rain around 11z Tuesday as warmer air continues to
advect north into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.
Cold front to move through metro area around 22z Tuesday as winds
veer to the west. Not sure on coverage of precipitation with
frontal boundary, so just added vcnty shower mention after 22z Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 021819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Strong ridge of high pressure will move across Missouri into eastern
Illinois and western Indiana today.  Early morning fog should
dissipate within an hour or two of sunrise, and then we`ll see
increasing high clouds into the afternoon.  With wind turning to the
east and then southeast this afternoon and decent insolation, expect
temperatures to rise above freezing across most if not all of the
area.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Monday Night)

Precipitation is expected to develop tonight in response to backing
flow aloft and increasing WAA.  The timing continues to look much
more favorable for after midnight for most locations, with the best
location for precipitation this evening being further west over
central and northeast MO.  While the strength of the warm air aloft
will be enough to result in liquid pcpn for much of the event
tonight, the northern fringes--especially northeast MO and
west-central IL--will likely also receive some sleet as well during
the first few hours.  The predominance of liquid pcpn will also make
surface temps a critical element in separating freezing rain from
rain.  The latest indications are that surface temps will be below
freezing for much of the CWA this evening, but with increasing
southeasterly winds and thickening cloud cover, temps are expected
to rise above freezing by sunrise Tuesday morning.  Freezing rain
should therefore be limited to a few hours or less for many areas,
resulting in a light glaze overnight, and be most persistent for
west-central IL, where ice accums may approach a tenth of an inch.
A Winter Wx Advisory was considered, but with the critical element
of surface temp and lesser impact of overnight occurrence, will let
the day shift take one final look with hopefully better surface temp
confidence before determining the need for any headlines.

(Tuesday)

Thick cloud cover is expected to persist but thanks to southerly
surface winds and rising temps from the previous night, temps should
still rise into the 40s for areas north of I-70 and should get into
the 50s for areas south of I-70.  This represents a bit cooler
forecast than thought earlier.  With this also looks like a bit less
of a thunder threat as well.  Have trimmed thunder to isolated in
coverage and pushed it south to just southern MO and far southern
IL.  A strong cold front will already be pushing into northeast MO
from the northwest by sundown.  WAA pcpn from the previous night
will continue for much of this day, gradually edging east but should
be all non-freezing liquid.  The much drier and colder air moving in
behind the cold front may briefly change any rain over to snow but
pcpn by this time should also be spotty and result in little-no snow
accums.

(Wednesday)

The models are coming into better consensus on handling another pcpn
event for this day.  Strong frontogenesis settling across the
southern half of MO and southern third of IL will couple with a
backbuilding h300 jet that will become cyclonically curved with time
to produce a decent shot of pcpn--especially for southeast MO and
far southern IL.  Enough cold air will be in place by this time to
maintain pcpn-types as all snow.  However, we continue to see a more
northward solution with the NAM, but the others are gradually
trending more northerly.  As far as amounts are concerned, there is
potential for a heavy snow event for parts of southeast MO given the
intense and deep lift that will occur here for several hours with a
sharp northern gradient also given the very dry air to the north.
Current snowfall amounts look to be just below 6" for a storm total
in parts of southeast MO and so will continue to monitor this
closely for the need to issue any winter headlines for this event.
Snowfall amounts further to the north towards STL metro are purely
arbitrary at this point with the anticipated sharp northern cutoff.

(Thursday - Sunday)

The main TROF axis aloft swings thru and shifts the flow from the NW
for the remainder of this period.  A quiet, dry period should
dominate much of this with moderating temps with southerly flow
expected for next weekend.  A shortwave TROF may deliver some pcpn
for next weekend but low confidence to say the least so left dry for
now.

TES
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation will see cigs lower to IFR.
Precip to start off as light freezing rain then transition to rain
between 11z-13z Tuesday as warmer air continues to advect north
into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.

Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation around 07z Tuesday will see cigs
lower to IFR. Precip to start off as light freezing rain then
transition to rain around 11z Tuesday as warmer air continues to
advect north into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.
Cold front to move through metro area around 22z Tuesday as winds
veer to the west. Not sure on coverage of precipitation with
frontal boundary, so just added vcnty shower mention after 22z Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 021819
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1219 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Strong ridge of high pressure will move across Missouri into eastern
Illinois and western Indiana today.  Early morning fog should
dissipate within an hour or two of sunrise, and then we`ll see
increasing high clouds into the afternoon.  With wind turning to the
east and then southeast this afternoon and decent insolation, expect
temperatures to rise above freezing across most if not all of the
area.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Monday Night)

Precipitation is expected to develop tonight in response to backing
flow aloft and increasing WAA.  The timing continues to look much
more favorable for after midnight for most locations, with the best
location for precipitation this evening being further west over
central and northeast MO.  While the strength of the warm air aloft
will be enough to result in liquid pcpn for much of the event
tonight, the northern fringes--especially northeast MO and
west-central IL--will likely also receive some sleet as well during
the first few hours.  The predominance of liquid pcpn will also make
surface temps a critical element in separating freezing rain from
rain.  The latest indications are that surface temps will be below
freezing for much of the CWA this evening, but with increasing
southeasterly winds and thickening cloud cover, temps are expected
to rise above freezing by sunrise Tuesday morning.  Freezing rain
should therefore be limited to a few hours or less for many areas,
resulting in a light glaze overnight, and be most persistent for
west-central IL, where ice accums may approach a tenth of an inch.
A Winter Wx Advisory was considered, but with the critical element
of surface temp and lesser impact of overnight occurrence, will let
the day shift take one final look with hopefully better surface temp
confidence before determining the need for any headlines.

(Tuesday)

Thick cloud cover is expected to persist but thanks to southerly
surface winds and rising temps from the previous night, temps should
still rise into the 40s for areas north of I-70 and should get into
the 50s for areas south of I-70.  This represents a bit cooler
forecast than thought earlier.  With this also looks like a bit less
of a thunder threat as well.  Have trimmed thunder to isolated in
coverage and pushed it south to just southern MO and far southern
IL.  A strong cold front will already be pushing into northeast MO
from the northwest by sundown.  WAA pcpn from the previous night
will continue for much of this day, gradually edging east but should
be all non-freezing liquid.  The much drier and colder air moving in
behind the cold front may briefly change any rain over to snow but
pcpn by this time should also be spotty and result in little-no snow
accums.

(Wednesday)

The models are coming into better consensus on handling another pcpn
event for this day.  Strong frontogenesis settling across the
southern half of MO and southern third of IL will couple with a
backbuilding h300 jet that will become cyclonically curved with time
to produce a decent shot of pcpn--especially for southeast MO and
far southern IL.  Enough cold air will be in place by this time to
maintain pcpn-types as all snow.  However, we continue to see a more
northward solution with the NAM, but the others are gradually
trending more northerly.  As far as amounts are concerned, there is
potential for a heavy snow event for parts of southeast MO given the
intense and deep lift that will occur here for several hours with a
sharp northern gradient also given the very dry air to the north.
Current snowfall amounts look to be just below 6" for a storm total
in parts of southeast MO and so will continue to monitor this
closely for the need to issue any winter headlines for this event.
Snowfall amounts further to the north towards STL metro are purely
arbitrary at this point with the anticipated sharp northern cutoff.

(Thursday - Sunday)

The main TROF axis aloft swings thru and shifts the flow from the NW
for the remainder of this period.  A quiet, dry period should
dominate much of this with moderating temps with southerly flow
expected for next weekend.  A shortwave TROF may deliver some pcpn
for next weekend but low confidence to say the least so left dry for
now.

TES
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation will see cigs lower to IFR.
Precip to start off as light freezing rain then transition to rain
between 11z-13z Tuesday as warmer air continues to advect north
into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.

Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds to prevail today with winds from the east.
Next weather system to approach region tonight with cigs gradually
lowering. With onset of precipitation around 07z Tuesday will see cigs
lower to IFR. Precip to start off as light freezing rain then
transition to rain around 11z Tuesday as warmer air continues to
advect north into region as winds veer and pickup from the south.
Cold front to move through metro area around 22z Tuesday as winds
veer to the west. Not sure on coverage of precipitation with
frontal boundary, so just added vcnty shower mention after 22z Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 021743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentropic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentropic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Terry







000
FXUS63 KSGF 021743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentropic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentropic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KSGF 021743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentropic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentropic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Terry







000
FXUS63 KEAX 021712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1112 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged, with the
primary weather concern focused on the positively-tilted upper
trough and a lead shortwave trough currently over southern
California projected to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday,
with surface cyclogenesis occurring over eastern Colorado. The low
and an associated cold front will push through the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon.

Filtered sun is expected today, with temperatures a few degrees
warmer with most locations reaching or exceeding the freezing mark
during the afternoon. Strong warm air and moisture advection will be
ongoing during the day in advance of the upper trough. The initial
ascent from the wave may generate some light precipitation across
the area this evening. While much of this will fall as a cold rain,
the exiting cold airmass may remain below freezing over the
northeast quarter of the CWA, owing to the possibility of a brief
period of light freezing rain. A light glaze of a couple hundredths
of an inch will be possible over northeast Missouri Monday night.
Any accumulation will be brief as air temperatures will gradually
warm during the night, with readings warming above freezing by
sunrise, minimizing impacts during a higher traffic volume.

Light rain will overspread much of the area on Tuesday as strong
ascent moves over the region, and in advance of a surface low/cold
front. Overall amounts have trended much less, with the higher QPF
remaining to the north of the area. Highs on Tuesday have gradually
trended a little cooler, closer to seasonal normals, with readings
reaching the lower 40s to lower 50s. The cold front will move
through the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with some small potential of
lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends.
There is still modest spread among model members, but there may be
some light snowfall accumulation over the far southern portion of
the forecast area Wed morning. Cold weather with below normal
temperatures are expected for Wednesday as surface high pressure
builds into the central CONUS. Highs on Wednesday will be nearly 20
degrees below normal. With clear skies and light winds, lows should
be unseasonably cold Wed night, with readings falling into the
single digits to lower teens areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The extended range looks dry with a moderating trend back to near
normal temperatures for the beginning of March.

Thursday, the upper level trough that was the catalyst for bringing
the midweek precipitation will swing east of the area. Surface high
pressure will build into the area keeping temperatures well below
average with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. That however, will be
the coldest day in the extended as Friday temperatures will moderate
quickly. The aforementioned surface high will shift east by Friday
and flow will return out of the southwest as northwest flow aloft
begins to relax. Highs Friday will range in the 40s. Saturday will
feature downsloping westerly flow which will allow highs to return
to seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

It is not until Sunday that model solutions begin to significantly
diverge. The EC bring a shortwave trough into the central Plains
with the chance for light rain on Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand
has a upper trough well north of the area across the Upper Midwest
with surface high pressure over the local area. Sided with the GFS
as it supports persistence forecasting. Expect highs to remain near
seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR conditions through this evening are expected to deteriorate
overnight into low MVFR ceilings. Strong warm advection will spread
moisture over the region with light rain or drizzle possible
overnight. It`s possible there may be a brief window for freezing
rain and/or freezing drizzle, but think the strength of the warm
advection will keep any precipitation liquid at the terminals.
Although a few hours of light freezing precipitation is possible
further north late tonight before temperatures warm above freezing in
the pre-dawn hours. Winds will increase from the south this evening
and then veer through the day tomorrow as a cold front approaches.
The frontal timing is expected to occur after 18Z with winds shifting
to the north after that time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 021712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1112 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged, with the
primary weather concern focused on the positively-tilted upper
trough and a lead shortwave trough currently over southern
California projected to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday,
with surface cyclogenesis occurring over eastern Colorado. The low
and an associated cold front will push through the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon.

Filtered sun is expected today, with temperatures a few degrees
warmer with most locations reaching or exceeding the freezing mark
during the afternoon. Strong warm air and moisture advection will be
ongoing during the day in advance of the upper trough. The initial
ascent from the wave may generate some light precipitation across
the area this evening. While much of this will fall as a cold rain,
the exiting cold airmass may remain below freezing over the
northeast quarter of the CWA, owing to the possibility of a brief
period of light freezing rain. A light glaze of a couple hundredths
of an inch will be possible over northeast Missouri Monday night.
Any accumulation will be brief as air temperatures will gradually
warm during the night, with readings warming above freezing by
sunrise, minimizing impacts during a higher traffic volume.

Light rain will overspread much of the area on Tuesday as strong
ascent moves over the region, and in advance of a surface low/cold
front. Overall amounts have trended much less, with the higher QPF
remaining to the north of the area. Highs on Tuesday have gradually
trended a little cooler, closer to seasonal normals, with readings
reaching the lower 40s to lower 50s. The cold front will move
through the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with some small potential of
lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends.
There is still modest spread among model members, but there may be
some light snowfall accumulation over the far southern portion of
the forecast area Wed morning. Cold weather with below normal
temperatures are expected for Wednesday as surface high pressure
builds into the central CONUS. Highs on Wednesday will be nearly 20
degrees below normal. With clear skies and light winds, lows should
be unseasonably cold Wed night, with readings falling into the
single digits to lower teens areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The extended range looks dry with a moderating trend back to near
normal temperatures for the beginning of March.

Thursday, the upper level trough that was the catalyst for bringing
the midweek precipitation will swing east of the area. Surface high
pressure will build into the area keeping temperatures well below
average with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. That however, will be
the coldest day in the extended as Friday temperatures will moderate
quickly. The aforementioned surface high will shift east by Friday
and flow will return out of the southwest as northwest flow aloft
begins to relax. Highs Friday will range in the 40s. Saturday will
feature downsloping westerly flow which will allow highs to return
to seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

It is not until Sunday that model solutions begin to significantly
diverge. The EC bring a shortwave trough into the central Plains
with the chance for light rain on Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand
has a upper trough well north of the area across the Upper Midwest
with surface high pressure over the local area. Sided with the GFS
as it supports persistence forecasting. Expect highs to remain near
seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR conditions through this evening are expected to deteriorate
overnight into low MVFR ceilings. Strong warm advection will spread
moisture over the region with light rain or drizzle possible
overnight. It`s possible there may be a brief window for freezing
rain and/or freezing drizzle, but think the strength of the warm
advection will keep any precipitation liquid at the terminals.
Although a few hours of light freezing precipitation is possible
further north late tonight before temperatures warm above freezing in
the pre-dawn hours. Winds will increase from the south this evening
and then veer through the day tomorrow as a cold front approaches.
The frontal timing is expected to occur after 18Z with winds shifting
to the north after that time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 021712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1112 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged, with the
primary weather concern focused on the positively-tilted upper
trough and a lead shortwave trough currently over southern
California projected to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday,
with surface cyclogenesis occurring over eastern Colorado. The low
and an associated cold front will push through the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon.

Filtered sun is expected today, with temperatures a few degrees
warmer with most locations reaching or exceeding the freezing mark
during the afternoon. Strong warm air and moisture advection will be
ongoing during the day in advance of the upper trough. The initial
ascent from the wave may generate some light precipitation across
the area this evening. While much of this will fall as a cold rain,
the exiting cold airmass may remain below freezing over the
northeast quarter of the CWA, owing to the possibility of a brief
period of light freezing rain. A light glaze of a couple hundredths
of an inch will be possible over northeast Missouri Monday night.
Any accumulation will be brief as air temperatures will gradually
warm during the night, with readings warming above freezing by
sunrise, minimizing impacts during a higher traffic volume.

Light rain will overspread much of the area on Tuesday as strong
ascent moves over the region, and in advance of a surface low/cold
front. Overall amounts have trended much less, with the higher QPF
remaining to the north of the area. Highs on Tuesday have gradually
trended a little cooler, closer to seasonal normals, with readings
reaching the lower 40s to lower 50s. The cold front will move
through the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with some small potential of
lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends.
There is still modest spread among model members, but there may be
some light snowfall accumulation over the far southern portion of
the forecast area Wed morning. Cold weather with below normal
temperatures are expected for Wednesday as surface high pressure
builds into the central CONUS. Highs on Wednesday will be nearly 20
degrees below normal. With clear skies and light winds, lows should
be unseasonably cold Wed night, with readings falling into the
single digits to lower teens areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The extended range looks dry with a moderating trend back to near
normal temperatures for the beginning of March.

Thursday, the upper level trough that was the catalyst for bringing
the midweek precipitation will swing east of the area. Surface high
pressure will build into the area keeping temperatures well below
average with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. That however, will be
the coldest day in the extended as Friday temperatures will moderate
quickly. The aforementioned surface high will shift east by Friday
and flow will return out of the southwest as northwest flow aloft
begins to relax. Highs Friday will range in the 40s. Saturday will
feature downsloping westerly flow which will allow highs to return
to seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

It is not until Sunday that model solutions begin to significantly
diverge. The EC bring a shortwave trough into the central Plains
with the chance for light rain on Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand
has a upper trough well north of the area across the Upper Midwest
with surface high pressure over the local area. Sided with the GFS
as it supports persistence forecasting. Expect highs to remain near
seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR conditions through this evening are expected to deteriorate
overnight into low MVFR ceilings. Strong warm advection will spread
moisture over the region with light rain or drizzle possible
overnight. It`s possible there may be a brief window for freezing
rain and/or freezing drizzle, but think the strength of the warm
advection will keep any precipitation liquid at the terminals.
Although a few hours of light freezing precipitation is possible
further north late tonight before temperatures warm above freezing in
the pre-dawn hours. Winds will increase from the south this evening
and then veer through the day tomorrow as a cold front approaches.
The frontal timing is expected to occur after 18Z with winds shifting
to the north after that time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 021712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1112 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged, with the
primary weather concern focused on the positively-tilted upper
trough and a lead shortwave trough currently over southern
California projected to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday,
with surface cyclogenesis occurring over eastern Colorado. The low
and an associated cold front will push through the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon.

Filtered sun is expected today, with temperatures a few degrees
warmer with most locations reaching or exceeding the freezing mark
during the afternoon. Strong warm air and moisture advection will be
ongoing during the day in advance of the upper trough. The initial
ascent from the wave may generate some light precipitation across
the area this evening. While much of this will fall as a cold rain,
the exiting cold airmass may remain below freezing over the
northeast quarter of the CWA, owing to the possibility of a brief
period of light freezing rain. A light glaze of a couple hundredths
of an inch will be possible over northeast Missouri Monday night.
Any accumulation will be brief as air temperatures will gradually
warm during the night, with readings warming above freezing by
sunrise, minimizing impacts during a higher traffic volume.

Light rain will overspread much of the area on Tuesday as strong
ascent moves over the region, and in advance of a surface low/cold
front. Overall amounts have trended much less, with the higher QPF
remaining to the north of the area. Highs on Tuesday have gradually
trended a little cooler, closer to seasonal normals, with readings
reaching the lower 40s to lower 50s. The cold front will move
through the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with some small potential of
lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends.
There is still modest spread among model members, but there may be
some light snowfall accumulation over the far southern portion of
the forecast area Wed morning. Cold weather with below normal
temperatures are expected for Wednesday as surface high pressure
builds into the central CONUS. Highs on Wednesday will be nearly 20
degrees below normal. With clear skies and light winds, lows should
be unseasonably cold Wed night, with readings falling into the
single digits to lower teens areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The extended range looks dry with a moderating trend back to near
normal temperatures for the beginning of March.

Thursday, the upper level trough that was the catalyst for bringing
the midweek precipitation will swing east of the area. Surface high
pressure will build into the area keeping temperatures well below
average with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. That however, will be
the coldest day in the extended as Friday temperatures will moderate
quickly. The aforementioned surface high will shift east by Friday
and flow will return out of the southwest as northwest flow aloft
begins to relax. Highs Friday will range in the 40s. Saturday will
feature downsloping westerly flow which will allow highs to return
to seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

It is not until Sunday that model solutions begin to significantly
diverge. The EC bring a shortwave trough into the central Plains
with the chance for light rain on Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand
has a upper trough well north of the area across the Upper Midwest
with surface high pressure over the local area. Sided with the GFS
as it supports persistence forecasting. Expect highs to remain near
seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR conditions through this evening are expected to deteriorate
overnight into low MVFR ceilings. Strong warm advection will spread
moisture over the region with light rain or drizzle possible
overnight. It`s possible there may be a brief window for freezing
rain and/or freezing drizzle, but think the strength of the warm
advection will keep any precipitation liquid at the terminals.
Although a few hours of light freezing precipitation is possible
further north late tonight before temperatures warm above freezing in
the pre-dawn hours. Winds will increase from the south this evening
and then veer through the day tomorrow as a cold front approaches.
The frontal timing is expected to occur after 18Z with winds shifting
to the north after that time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KLSX 021206
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
606 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Strong ridge of high pressure will move across Missouri into eastern
Illinois and western Indiana today.  Early morning fog should
dissipate within an hour or two of sunrise, and then we`ll see
increasing high clouds into the afternoon.  With wind turning to the
east and then southeast this afternoon and decent insolation, expect
temperatures to rise above freezing across most if not all of the
area.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Monday Night)

Precipitation is expected to develop tonight in response to backing
flow aloft and increasing WAA.  The timing continues to look much
more favorable for after midnight for most locations, with the best
location for precipitation this evening being further west over
central and northeast MO.  While the strength of the warm air aloft
will be enough to result in liquid pcpn for much of the event
tonight, the northern fringes--especially northeast MO and
west-central IL--will likely also receive some sleet as well during
the first few hours.  The predominance of liquid pcpn will also make
surface temps a critical element in separating freezing rain from
rain.  The latest indicatons are that surface temps will be below
freezing for much of the CWA this evening, but with increasing
southeasterly winds and thickening cloud cover, temps are expected
to rise above freezing by sunrise Tuesday morning.  Freezing rain
should therefore be limited to a few hours or less for many areas,
resulting in a light glaze overnight, and be most persistent for
west-central IL, where ice accums may approach a tenth of an inch.
A Winter Wx Advisory was considered, but with the critical element
of surface temp and lesser impact of overnight occurrence, will let
the day shift take one final look with hopefully better surface temp
confidence before determining the need for any headlines.

(Tuesday)

Thick cloud cover is expected to persist but thanks to southerly
surface winds and rising temps from the previous night, temps should
still rise into the 40s for areas north of I-70 and should get into
the 50s for areas south of I-70.  This represents a bit cooler
forecast than thought earlier.  With this also looks like a bit less
of a thunder threat as well.  Have trimmed thunder to isolated in
coverage and pushed it south to just southern MO and far southern
IL.  A strong cold front will already be pushing into northeast MO
from the northwest by sundown.  WAA pcpn from the previous night
will continue for much of this day, gradually edging east but should
be all non-freezing liquid.  The much drier and colder air moving in
behind the cold front may briefly change any rain over to snow but
pcpn by this time should also be spotty and result in little-no snow
accums.

(Wednesday)

The models are coming into better consensus on handling another pcpn
event for this day.  Strong frontogenesis settling across the
southern half of MO and southern third of IL will couple with a
backbuilding h300 jet that will become cyclonically curved with time
to produce a decent shot of pcpn--especially for southeast MO and
far southern IL.  Enough cold air will be in place by this time to
maintain pcpn-types as all snow.  However, we continue to see a more
northward solution with the NAM, but the others are gradually
trending more northerly.  As far as amounts are concerned, there is
potential for a heavy snow event for parts of southeast MO given the
intense and deep lift that will occur here for several hours with a
sharp northern gradient also given the very dry air to the north.
Current snowfall amounts look to be just below 6" for a storm total
in parts of southeast MO and so will continue to monitor this
closely for the need to issue any winter headlines for this event.
Snowfall amounts further to the north towards STL metro are purely
arbitrary at this point with the anticipated sharp northern cutoff.

(Thursday - Sunday)

The main TROF axis aloft swings thru and shifts the flow from the NW
for the remainder of this period.  A quiet, dry period should
dominate much of this with moderating temps with southerly flow
expected for next weekend.  A shortwave TROF may deliver some pcpn
for next weekend but low confidence to say the least so left dry for
now.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Areas of fog, with localized visibilities at or below 2 miles
will persist for an hour or two this morning. Should see fog
dissipate by 14-15Z. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions are expected
to prevail today and into the evening. Areas of light rain and
freezing rain will develop after 06Z and continue into Tuesday
morning. Temperatures will be slowly rising after midnight so
freezing rain may not persist for very long after it starts.
Regardless, expect IFR ceilings to be widespread once
precipitation starts.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR fog at Lambert should dissipate before 15Z. VFR flight
conditions will then prevail through the remainder of the day and
into the evening. Ceilings will be lowering through the late
afternoon into the evening, but should remain at or above 4,000FT.
Expect areas of rain or freezing rain to affect Lambert sometime
after 06Z, though start time and temperatures at the surface are
not certain. Think there will be a short period of freezing rain,
but temperatures should be rising overnight so the freezing should
be relatively brief. IFR flight conditions will likely prevail
once the precipitation starts.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 021206
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
606 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Strong ridge of high pressure will move across Missouri into eastern
Illinois and western Indiana today.  Early morning fog should
dissipate within an hour or two of sunrise, and then we`ll see
increasing high clouds into the afternoon.  With wind turning to the
east and then southeast this afternoon and decent insolation, expect
temperatures to rise above freezing across most if not all of the
area.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Monday Night)

Precipitation is expected to develop tonight in response to backing
flow aloft and increasing WAA.  The timing continues to look much
more favorable for after midnight for most locations, with the best
location for precipitation this evening being further west over
central and northeast MO.  While the strength of the warm air aloft
will be enough to result in liquid pcpn for much of the event
tonight, the northern fringes--especially northeast MO and
west-central IL--will likely also receive some sleet as well during
the first few hours.  The predominance of liquid pcpn will also make
surface temps a critical element in separating freezing rain from
rain.  The latest indicatons are that surface temps will be below
freezing for much of the CWA this evening, but with increasing
southeasterly winds and thickening cloud cover, temps are expected
to rise above freezing by sunrise Tuesday morning.  Freezing rain
should therefore be limited to a few hours or less for many areas,
resulting in a light glaze overnight, and be most persistent for
west-central IL, where ice accums may approach a tenth of an inch.
A Winter Wx Advisory was considered, but with the critical element
of surface temp and lesser impact of overnight occurrence, will let
the day shift take one final look with hopefully better surface temp
confidence before determining the need for any headlines.

(Tuesday)

Thick cloud cover is expected to persist but thanks to southerly
surface winds and rising temps from the previous night, temps should
still rise into the 40s for areas north of I-70 and should get into
the 50s for areas south of I-70.  This represents a bit cooler
forecast than thought earlier.  With this also looks like a bit less
of a thunder threat as well.  Have trimmed thunder to isolated in
coverage and pushed it south to just southern MO and far southern
IL.  A strong cold front will already be pushing into northeast MO
from the northwest by sundown.  WAA pcpn from the previous night
will continue for much of this day, gradually edging east but should
be all non-freezing liquid.  The much drier and colder air moving in
behind the cold front may briefly change any rain over to snow but
pcpn by this time should also be spotty and result in little-no snow
accums.

(Wednesday)

The models are coming into better consensus on handling another pcpn
event for this day.  Strong frontogenesis settling across the
southern half of MO and southern third of IL will couple with a
backbuilding h300 jet that will become cyclonically curved with time
to produce a decent shot of pcpn--especially for southeast MO and
far southern IL.  Enough cold air will be in place by this time to
maintain pcpn-types as all snow.  However, we continue to see a more
northward solution with the NAM, but the others are gradually
trending more northerly.  As far as amounts are concerned, there is
potential for a heavy snow event for parts of southeast MO given the
intense and deep lift that will occur here for several hours with a
sharp northern gradient also given the very dry air to the north.
Current snowfall amounts look to be just below 6" for a storm total
in parts of southeast MO and so will continue to monitor this
closely for the need to issue any winter headlines for this event.
Snowfall amounts further to the north towards STL metro are purely
arbitrary at this point with the anticipated sharp northern cutoff.

(Thursday - Sunday)

The main TROF axis aloft swings thru and shifts the flow from the NW
for the remainder of this period.  A quiet, dry period should
dominate much of this with moderating temps with southerly flow
expected for next weekend.  A shortwave TROF may deliver some pcpn
for next weekend but low confidence to say the least so left dry for
now.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Areas of fog, with localized visibilities at or below 2 miles
will persist for an hour or two this morning. Should see fog
dissipate by 14-15Z. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions are expected
to prevail today and into the evening. Areas of light rain and
freezing rain will develop after 06Z and continue into Tuesday
morning. Temperatures will be slowly rising after midnight so
freezing rain may not persist for very long after it starts.
Regardless, expect IFR ceilings to be widespread once
precipitation starts.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR fog at Lambert should dissipate before 15Z. VFR flight
conditions will then prevail through the remainder of the day and
into the evening. Ceilings will be lowering through the late
afternoon into the evening, but should remain at or above 4,000FT.
Expect areas of rain or freezing rain to affect Lambert sometime
after 06Z, though start time and temperatures at the surface are
not certain. Think there will be a short period of freezing rain,
but temperatures should be rising overnight so the freezing should
be relatively brief. IFR flight conditions will likely prevail
once the precipitation starts.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 021146
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
546 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged, with the
primary weather concern focused on the positively-tilted upper
trough and a lead shortwave trough currently over southern
California projected to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday,
with surface cyclogenesis occurring over eastern Colorado. The low
and an associated cold front will push through the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon.

Filtered sun is expected today, with temperatures a few degrees
warmer with most locations reaching or exceeding the freezing mark
during the afternoon. Strong warm air and moisture advection will be
ongoing during the day in advance of the upper trough. The initial
ascent from the wave may generate some light precipitation across
the area this evening. While much of this will fall as a cold rain,
the exiting cold airmass may remain below freezing over the
northeast quarter of the CWA, owing to the possibility of a brief
period of light freezing rain. A light glaze of a couple hundredths
of an inch will be possible over northeast Missouri Monday night.
Any accumulation will be brief as air temperatures will gradually
warm during the night, with readings warming above freezing by
sunrise, minimizing impacts during a higher traffic volume.

Light rain will overspread much of the area on Tuesday as strong
ascent moves over the region, and in advance of a surface low/cold
front. Overall amounts have trended much less, with the higher QPF
remaining to the north of the area. Highs on Tuesday have gradually
trended a little cooler, closer to seasonal normals, with readings
reaching the lower 40s to lower 50s. The cold front will move
through the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with some small potential of
lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends.
There is still modest spread among model members, but there may be
some light snowfall accumulation over the far southern portion of
the forecast area Wed morning. Cold weather with below normal
temperatures are expected for Wednesday as surface high pressure
builds into the central CONUS. Highs on Wednesday will be nearly 20
degrees below normal. With clear skies and light winds, lows should
be unseasonably cold Wed night, with readings falling into the
single digits to lower teens areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The extended range looks dry with a moderating trend back to near
normal temperatures for the beginning of March.

Thursday, the upper level trough that was the catalyst for bringing
the midweek precipitation will swing east of the area. Surface high
pressure will build into the area keeping temperatures well below
average with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. That however, will be
the coldest day in the extended as Friday temperatures will moderate
quickly. The aforementioned surface high will shift east by Friday
and flow will return out of the southwest as northwest flow aloft
begins to relax. Highs Friday will range in the 40s. Saturday will
feature downsloping westerly flow which will allow highs to return
to seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

It is not until Sunday that model solutions begin to significantly
diverge. The EC bring a shortwave trough into the central Plains
with the chance for light rain on Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand
has a upper trough well north of the area across the Upper Midwest
with surface high pressure over the local area. Sided with the GFS
as it supports persistence forecasting. Expect highs to remain near
seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the next 12 hours with a mix of
mid/high clouds. MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region
by 00z Tuesday, and could be accompanied by patchy drizzle or
showers, with freezing drizzle possible at STJ. Confidence in timing
is too low to warrant specific hour(s) in TAFs. Light winds this
morning will increase in speed and become southeasterly.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 021146
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
546 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged, with the
primary weather concern focused on the positively-tilted upper
trough and a lead shortwave trough currently over southern
California projected to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday,
with surface cyclogenesis occurring over eastern Colorado. The low
and an associated cold front will push through the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon.

Filtered sun is expected today, with temperatures a few degrees
warmer with most locations reaching or exceeding the freezing mark
during the afternoon. Strong warm air and moisture advection will be
ongoing during the day in advance of the upper trough. The initial
ascent from the wave may generate some light precipitation across
the area this evening. While much of this will fall as a cold rain,
the exiting cold airmass may remain below freezing over the
northeast quarter of the CWA, owing to the possibility of a brief
period of light freezing rain. A light glaze of a couple hundredths
of an inch will be possible over northeast Missouri Monday night.
Any accumulation will be brief as air temperatures will gradually
warm during the night, with readings warming above freezing by
sunrise, minimizing impacts during a higher traffic volume.

Light rain will overspread much of the area on Tuesday as strong
ascent moves over the region, and in advance of a surface low/cold
front. Overall amounts have trended much less, with the higher QPF
remaining to the north of the area. Highs on Tuesday have gradually
trended a little cooler, closer to seasonal normals, with readings
reaching the lower 40s to lower 50s. The cold front will move
through the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with some small potential of
lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends.
There is still modest spread among model members, but there may be
some light snowfall accumulation over the far southern portion of
the forecast area Wed morning. Cold weather with below normal
temperatures are expected for Wednesday as surface high pressure
builds into the central CONUS. Highs on Wednesday will be nearly 20
degrees below normal. With clear skies and light winds, lows should
be unseasonably cold Wed night, with readings falling into the
single digits to lower teens areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The extended range looks dry with a moderating trend back to near
normal temperatures for the beginning of March.

Thursday, the upper level trough that was the catalyst for bringing
the midweek precipitation will swing east of the area. Surface high
pressure will build into the area keeping temperatures well below
average with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. That however, will be
the coldest day in the extended as Friday temperatures will moderate
quickly. The aforementioned surface high will shift east by Friday
and flow will return out of the southwest as northwest flow aloft
begins to relax. Highs Friday will range in the 40s. Saturday will
feature downsloping westerly flow which will allow highs to return
to seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

It is not until Sunday that model solutions begin to significantly
diverge. The EC bring a shortwave trough into the central Plains
with the chance for light rain on Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand
has a upper trough well north of the area across the Upper Midwest
with surface high pressure over the local area. Sided with the GFS
as it supports persistence forecasting. Expect highs to remain near
seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the next 12 hours with a mix of
mid/high clouds. MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region
by 00z Tuesday, and could be accompanied by patchy drizzle or
showers, with freezing drizzle possible at STJ. Confidence in timing
is too low to warrant specific hour(s) in TAFs. Light winds this
morning will increase in speed and become southeasterly.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair







000
FXUS63 KSGF 021123
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

High pressure was centered to the northeast of the terminals early
this morning with a steady northeast wind. This and some mid level
cloud cover was keeping the visibilities from lowering into the
IFR category at the terminals. Will start to see a big low level
moisture push by the afternoon and will see ceilings drop into
MVFR category later in the afternoon and continue through the
nighttime hours. Could see some rain develop late tonight and have
put in a prob 30 group at the 3 sites to cover this. Temperatures
should remain above freezing tonight with a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up. Could see some IFR conditions
develop overnight as ceilings dip below 1000 feet.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 021123
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

High pressure was centered to the northeast of the terminals early
this morning with a steady northeast wind. This and some mid level
cloud cover was keeping the visibilities from lowering into the
IFR category at the terminals. Will start to see a big low level
moisture push by the afternoon and will see ceilings drop into
MVFR category later in the afternoon and continue through the
nighttime hours. Could see some rain develop late tonight and have
put in a prob 30 group at the 3 sites to cover this. Temperatures
should remain above freezing tonight with a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up. Could see some IFR conditions
develop overnight as ceilings dip below 1000 feet.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 021123
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

High pressure was centered to the northeast of the terminals early
this morning with a steady northeast wind. This and some mid level
cloud cover was keeping the visibilities from lowering into the
IFR category at the terminals. Will start to see a big low level
moisture push by the afternoon and will see ceilings drop into
MVFR category later in the afternoon and continue through the
nighttime hours. Could see some rain develop late tonight and have
put in a prob 30 group at the 3 sites to cover this. Temperatures
should remain above freezing tonight with a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up. Could see some IFR conditions
develop overnight as ceilings dip below 1000 feet.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 021123
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

High pressure was centered to the northeast of the terminals early
this morning with a steady northeast wind. This and some mid level
cloud cover was keeping the visibilities from lowering into the
IFR category at the terminals. Will start to see a big low level
moisture push by the afternoon and will see ceilings drop into
MVFR category later in the afternoon and continue through the
nighttime hours. Could see some rain develop late tonight and have
put in a prob 30 group at the 3 sites to cover this. Temperatures
should remain above freezing tonight with a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up. Could see some IFR conditions
develop overnight as ceilings dip below 1000 feet.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020957
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise









000
FXUS63 KSGF 020957
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise









000
FXUS63 KSGF 020957
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise









000
FXUS63 KSGF 020957
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise









000
FXUS63 KSGF 020957
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 020957
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.

High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.

A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.

Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.

A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.

After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise









000
FXUS63 KLSX 020945
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

Strong ridge of high pressure will move across Missouri into eastern
Illinois and western Indiana today.  Early morning fog should
dissipate within an hour or two of sunrise, and then we`ll see
increasing high clouds into the afternoon.  With wind turning to the
east and then southeast this afternoon and decent insolation, expect
temperatures to rise above freezing across most if not all of the
area.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

(Monday Night)

Precipitation is expected to develop tonight in response to backing
flow aloft and increasing WAA.  The timing continues to look much
more favorable for after midnight for most locations, with the best
location for precipitation this evening being further west over
central and northeast MO.  While the strength of the warm air aloft
will be enough to result in liquid pcpn for much of the event
tonight, the northern fringes--especially northeast MO and
west-central IL--will likely also receive some sleet as well during
the first few hours.  The predominance of liquid pcpn will also make
surface temps a critical element in separating freezing rain from
rain.  The latest indicatons are that surface temps will be below
freezing for much of the CWA this evening, but with increasing
southeasterly winds and thickening cloud cover, temps are expected
to rise above freezing by sunrise Tuesday morning.  Freezing rain
should therefore be limited to a few hours or less for many areas,
resulting in a light glaze overnight, and be most persistent for
west-central IL, where ice accums may approach a tenth of an inch.
A Winter Wx Advisory was considered, but with the critical element
of surface temp and lesser impact of overnight occurrence, will let
the day shift take one final look with hopefully better surface temp
confidence before determining the need for any headlines.

(Tuesday)

Thick cloud cover is expected to persist but thanks to southerly
surface winds and rising temps from the previous night, temps should
still rise into the 40s for areas north of I-70 and should get into
the 50s for areas south of I-70.  This represents a bit cooler
forecast than thought earlier.  With this also looks like a bit less
of a thunder threat as well.  Have trimmed thunder to isolated in
coverage and pushed it south to just southern MO and far southern
IL.  A strong cold front will already be pushing into northeast MO
from the northwest by sundown.  WAA pcpn from the previous night
will continue for much of this day, gradually edging east but should
be all non-freezing liquid.  The much drier and colder air moving in
behind the cold front may briefly change any rain over to snow but
pcpn by this time should also be spotty and result in little-no snow
accums.

(Wednesday)

The models are coming into better consensus on handling another pcpn
event for this day.  Strong frontogenesis settling across the
southern half of MO and southern third of IL will couple with a
backbuilding h300 jet that will become cyclonically curved with time
to produce a decent shot of pcpn--especially for southeast MO and
far southern IL.  Enough cold air will be in place by this time to
maintain pcpn-types as all snow.  However, we continue to see a more
northward solution with the NAM, but the others are gradually
trending more northerly.  As far as amounts are concerned, there is
potential for a heavy snow event for parts of southeast MO given the
intense and deep lift that will occur here for several hours with a
sharp northern gradient also given the very dry air to the north.
Current snowfall amounts look to be just below 6" for a storm total
in parts of southeast MO and so will continue to monitor this
closely for the need to issue any winter headlines for this event.
Snowfall amounts further to the north towards STL metro are purely
arbitrary at this point with the anticipated sharp northern cutoff.

(Thursday - Sunday)

The main TROF axis aloft swings thru and shifts the flow from the NW
for the remainder of this period.  A quiet, dry period should
dominate much of this with moderating temps with southerly flow
expected for next weekend.  A shortwave TROF may deliver some pcpn
for next weekend but low confidence to say the least so left dry for
now.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 941 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

VFR thru the TAF period. Cigs will lower gradually on Mon. Winds
will remain light thru the period and veer thru the period to
eventually become sely by Mon eve.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 020919
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
319 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged, with the
primary weather concern focused on the positively-tilted upper
trough and a lead shortwave trough currently over southern
California projected to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday,
with surface cyclogenesis occurring over eastern Colorado. The low
and an associated cold front will push through the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon.

Filtered sun is expected today, with temperatures a few degrees
warmer with most locations reaching or exceeding the freezing mark
during the afternoon. Strong warm air and moisture advection will be
ongoing during the day in advance of the upper trough. The initial
ascent from the wave may generate some light precipitation across
the area this evening. While much of this will fall as a cold rain,
the exiting cold airmass may remain below freezing over the
northeast quarter of the CWA, owing to the possibility of a brief
period of light freezing rain. A light glaze of a couple hundredths
of an inch will be possible over northeast Missouri Monday night.
Any accumulation will be brief as air temperatures will gradually
warm during the night, with readings warming above freezing by
sunrise, minimizing impacts during a higher traffic volume.

Light rain will overspread much of the area on Tuesday as strong
ascent moves over the region, and in advance of a surface low/cold
front. Overall amounts have trended much less, with the higher QPF
remaining to the north of the area. Highs on Tuesday have gradually
trended a little cooler, closer to seasonal normals, with readings
reaching the lower 40s to lower 50s. The cold front will move
through the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with some small potential of
lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends.
There is still modest spread among model members, but there may be
some light snowfall accumulation over the far southern portion of
the forecast area Wed morning. Cold weather with below normal
temperatures are expected for Wednesday as surface high pressure
builds into the central CONUS. Highs on Wednesday will be nearly 20
degrees below normal. With clear skies and light winds, lows should
be unseasonably cold Wed night, with readings falling into the
single digits to lower teens areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The extended range looks dry with a moderating trend back to near
normal temperatures for the beginning of March.

Thursday, the upper level trough that was the catalyst for bringing
the midweek precipitation will swing east of the area. Surface high
pressure will build into the area keeping temperatures well below
average with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. That however, will be
the coldest day in the extended as Friday temperatures will moderate
quickly. The aforementioned surface high will shift east by Friday
and flow will return out of the southwest as northwest flow aloft
begins to relax. Highs Friday will range in the 40s. Saturday will
feature downsloping westerly flow which will allow highs to return
to seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

It is not until Sunday that model solutions begin to significantly
diverge. The EC bring a shortwave trough into the central Plains
with the chance for light rain on Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand
has a upper trough well north of the area across the Upper Midwest
with surface high pressure over the local area. Sided with the GFS
as it supports persistence forecasting. Expect highs to remain near
seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR conditions will continue tonight through most of Monday as high
clouds stream across northern MO. Light and variable winds will
eventually begin to increase out of the east southeast by mid to late
morning, and then will gradually turn to the south southeast through
the day. MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region after
00z Tuesday, and could be accompanied by patchy freezing drizzle;
however, confidence is too low to warrant mentioning in the TAFs.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 020919
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
319 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged, with the
primary weather concern focused on the positively-tilted upper
trough and a lead shortwave trough currently over southern
California projected to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday,
with surface cyclogenesis occurring over eastern Colorado. The low
and an associated cold front will push through the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon.

Filtered sun is expected today, with temperatures a few degrees
warmer with most locations reaching or exceeding the freezing mark
during the afternoon. Strong warm air and moisture advection will be
ongoing during the day in advance of the upper trough. The initial
ascent from the wave may generate some light precipitation across
the area this evening. While much of this will fall as a cold rain,
the exiting cold airmass may remain below freezing over the
northeast quarter of the CWA, owing to the possibility of a brief
period of light freezing rain. A light glaze of a couple hundredths
of an inch will be possible over northeast Missouri Monday night.
Any accumulation will be brief as air temperatures will gradually
warm during the night, with readings warming above freezing by
sunrise, minimizing impacts during a higher traffic volume.

Light rain will overspread much of the area on Tuesday as strong
ascent moves over the region, and in advance of a surface low/cold
front. Overall amounts have trended much less, with the higher QPF
remaining to the north of the area. Highs on Tuesday have gradually
trended a little cooler, closer to seasonal normals, with readings
reaching the lower 40s to lower 50s. The cold front will move
through the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with some small potential of
lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends.
There is still modest spread among model members, but there may be
some light snowfall accumulation over the far southern portion of
the forecast area Wed morning. Cold weather with below normal
temperatures are expected for Wednesday as surface high pressure
builds into the central CONUS. Highs on Wednesday will be nearly 20
degrees below normal. With clear skies and light winds, lows should
be unseasonably cold Wed night, with readings falling into the
single digits to lower teens areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

The extended range looks dry with a moderating trend back to near
normal temperatures for the beginning of March.

Thursday, the upper level trough that was the catalyst for bringing
the midweek precipitation will swing east of the area. Surface high
pressure will build into the area keeping temperatures well below
average with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. That however, will be
the coldest day in the extended as Friday temperatures will moderate
quickly. The aforementioned surface high will shift east by Friday
and flow will return out of the southwest as northwest flow aloft
begins to relax. Highs Friday will range in the 40s. Saturday will
feature downsloping westerly flow which will allow highs to return
to seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

It is not until Sunday that model solutions begin to significantly
diverge. The EC bring a shortwave trough into the central Plains
with the chance for light rain on Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand
has a upper trough well north of the area across the Upper Midwest
with surface high pressure over the local area. Sided with the GFS
as it supports persistence forecasting. Expect highs to remain near
seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR conditions will continue tonight through most of Monday as high
clouds stream across northern MO. Light and variable winds will
eventually begin to increase out of the east southeast by mid to late
morning, and then will gradually turn to the south southeast through
the day. MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region after
00z Tuesday, and could be accompanied by patchy freezing drizzle;
however, confidence is too low to warrant mentioning in the TAFs.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020533
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

With this weekends precipitable weather wrapping up this afternoon
focus is on our next event which will arrive Monday night into
Tuesday, or Wednesday, depending on the model solution you look at.
Synoptic scale pattern has not changed much, with expectations that
the low swirling over the California coast will dip far enough south
to induce some warm air advection across the Plains States Monday
into Tuesday. Models had been advertising a decent amount of return
moisture along with the warmer air for the beginning of the work
week.

Monday will be dry and cool with readings near normal, though as we
transit into the overnight hours the cool surface high will slide
east allowing the digging trough well to our west to induce the
return flow. This could bring precipitation into eastern Kansas and
Missouri as early as Monday evening, and if this occurs we will have
a brief window of opportunity for some freezing rain/drizzle. Models
continue to advertise a decent warm nose advecting in over the still
cold boundary layer Monday night, even when going with an aggressive
non-diurnal temperature curve. Expect temperatures to be steady or
warming above freezing after midnight with 40s along the Kansas-
Missouri border by sunrise. These warm temperatures will surge up
into the 40s to around 50 during the daylight hours of Tuesday,
keeping most precipitation Tuesday of the liquid verity. However,
while confidence is high that temperatures will warm, what is not so
high is confidence in our actual POPs. Latest NAM runs are
significantly more dry along the Kansas-Missouri border, though they
still bring some scattered light precipitation to the region. Have
kept a bit closer to the the slightly more consistent GFS/ECMWF
solutions for now, but did trim POPs back along the western state-
line. Cold air will return Tuesday afternoon, likely resulting in a
non-diurnal temperatures curve and possibly bring enough cold air
back in to force a precipitation type conversion. However, current
thoughts are that any precipitation will likely end before the air-
mass cool enough.

While the potential for light freezing rain or drizzle is there
Monday night, especially across far northern Missouri, any icing
should not be much more than a glaze (few hundredths of an inch or
less), and with temperatures warming above freezing before sunrise
Tuesday we do not currently anticipate much issue outside the few
hours when the freezing rain is occurring.

Otherwise, cooler temperatures will prevail Wednesday and Thursday
as the West Coast trough moves through the Plains, allowing some
warm ridging to spread into Kansas and Missouri Friday and through
the weekend. Of note to watch; the 12Z NAM today was trying to
advertise a bit of a quick hitting snow storm occurring on the
leading edge of the cold airmass that will be sweeping across Kansas
and Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not confident enough to
adjust the forecast based on this one model, GFS and ECMWF have
something similar but track the shortwave trough farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR conditions will continue tonight through most of Monday as high
clouds stream across northern MO. Light and variable winds will
eventually begin to increase out of the east southeast by mid to late
morning, and then will gradually turn to the south southeast through
the day. MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region after
00z Tuesday, and could be accompanied by patchy freezing drizzle;
however, confidence is too low to warrant mentioning in the TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020533
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

With this weekends precipitable weather wrapping up this afternoon
focus is on our next event which will arrive Monday night into
Tuesday, or Wednesday, depending on the model solution you look at.
Synoptic scale pattern has not changed much, with expectations that
the low swirling over the California coast will dip far enough south
to induce some warm air advection across the Plains States Monday
into Tuesday. Models had been advertising a decent amount of return
moisture along with the warmer air for the beginning of the work
week.

Monday will be dry and cool with readings near normal, though as we
transit into the overnight hours the cool surface high will slide
east allowing the digging trough well to our west to induce the
return flow. This could bring precipitation into eastern Kansas and
Missouri as early as Monday evening, and if this occurs we will have
a brief window of opportunity for some freezing rain/drizzle. Models
continue to advertise a decent warm nose advecting in over the still
cold boundary layer Monday night, even when going with an aggressive
non-diurnal temperature curve. Expect temperatures to be steady or
warming above freezing after midnight with 40s along the Kansas-
Missouri border by sunrise. These warm temperatures will surge up
into the 40s to around 50 during the daylight hours of Tuesday,
keeping most precipitation Tuesday of the liquid verity. However,
while confidence is high that temperatures will warm, what is not so
high is confidence in our actual POPs. Latest NAM runs are
significantly more dry along the Kansas-Missouri border, though they
still bring some scattered light precipitation to the region. Have
kept a bit closer to the the slightly more consistent GFS/ECMWF
solutions for now, but did trim POPs back along the western state-
line. Cold air will return Tuesday afternoon, likely resulting in a
non-diurnal temperatures curve and possibly bring enough cold air
back in to force a precipitation type conversion. However, current
thoughts are that any precipitation will likely end before the air-
mass cool enough.

While the potential for light freezing rain or drizzle is there
Monday night, especially across far northern Missouri, any icing
should not be much more than a glaze (few hundredths of an inch or
less), and with temperatures warming above freezing before sunrise
Tuesday we do not currently anticipate much issue outside the few
hours when the freezing rain is occurring.

Otherwise, cooler temperatures will prevail Wednesday and Thursday
as the West Coast trough moves through the Plains, allowing some
warm ridging to spread into Kansas and Missouri Friday and through
the weekend. Of note to watch; the 12Z NAM today was trying to
advertise a bit of a quick hitting snow storm occurring on the
leading edge of the cold airmass that will be sweeping across Kansas
and Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not confident enough to
adjust the forecast based on this one model, GFS and ECMWF have
something similar but track the shortwave trough farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR conditions will continue tonight through most of Monday as high
clouds stream across northern MO. Light and variable winds will
eventually begin to increase out of the east southeast by mid to late
morning, and then will gradually turn to the south southeast through
the day. MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region after
00z Tuesday, and could be accompanied by patchy freezing drizzle;
however, confidence is too low to warrant mentioning in the TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020533
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

With this weekends precipitable weather wrapping up this afternoon
focus is on our next event which will arrive Monday night into
Tuesday, or Wednesday, depending on the model solution you look at.
Synoptic scale pattern has not changed much, with expectations that
the low swirling over the California coast will dip far enough south
to induce some warm air advection across the Plains States Monday
into Tuesday. Models had been advertising a decent amount of return
moisture along with the warmer air for the beginning of the work
week.

Monday will be dry and cool with readings near normal, though as we
transit into the overnight hours the cool surface high will slide
east allowing the digging trough well to our west to induce the
return flow. This could bring precipitation into eastern Kansas and
Missouri as early as Monday evening, and if this occurs we will have
a brief window of opportunity for some freezing rain/drizzle. Models
continue to advertise a decent warm nose advecting in over the still
cold boundary layer Monday night, even when going with an aggressive
non-diurnal temperature curve. Expect temperatures to be steady or
warming above freezing after midnight with 40s along the Kansas-
Missouri border by sunrise. These warm temperatures will surge up
into the 40s to around 50 during the daylight hours of Tuesday,
keeping most precipitation Tuesday of the liquid verity. However,
while confidence is high that temperatures will warm, what is not so
high is confidence in our actual POPs. Latest NAM runs are
significantly more dry along the Kansas-Missouri border, though they
still bring some scattered light precipitation to the region. Have
kept a bit closer to the the slightly more consistent GFS/ECMWF
solutions for now, but did trim POPs back along the western state-
line. Cold air will return Tuesday afternoon, likely resulting in a
non-diurnal temperatures curve and possibly bring enough cold air
back in to force a precipitation type conversion. However, current
thoughts are that any precipitation will likely end before the air-
mass cool enough.

While the potential for light freezing rain or drizzle is there
Monday night, especially across far northern Missouri, any icing
should not be much more than a glaze (few hundredths of an inch or
less), and with temperatures warming above freezing before sunrise
Tuesday we do not currently anticipate much issue outside the few
hours when the freezing rain is occurring.

Otherwise, cooler temperatures will prevail Wednesday and Thursday
as the West Coast trough moves through the Plains, allowing some
warm ridging to spread into Kansas and Missouri Friday and through
the weekend. Of note to watch; the 12Z NAM today was trying to
advertise a bit of a quick hitting snow storm occurring on the
leading edge of the cold airmass that will be sweeping across Kansas
and Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not confident enough to
adjust the forecast based on this one model, GFS and ECMWF have
something similar but track the shortwave trough farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR conditions will continue tonight through most of Monday as high
clouds stream across northern MO. Light and variable winds will
eventually begin to increase out of the east southeast by mid to late
morning, and then will gradually turn to the south southeast through
the day. MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region after
00z Tuesday, and could be accompanied by patchy freezing drizzle;
however, confidence is too low to warrant mentioning in the TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020533
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

With this weekends precipitable weather wrapping up this afternoon
focus is on our next event which will arrive Monday night into
Tuesday, or Wednesday, depending on the model solution you look at.
Synoptic scale pattern has not changed much, with expectations that
the low swirling over the California coast will dip far enough south
to induce some warm air advection across the Plains States Monday
into Tuesday. Models had been advertising a decent amount of return
moisture along with the warmer air for the beginning of the work
week.

Monday will be dry and cool with readings near normal, though as we
transit into the overnight hours the cool surface high will slide
east allowing the digging trough well to our west to induce the
return flow. This could bring precipitation into eastern Kansas and
Missouri as early as Monday evening, and if this occurs we will have
a brief window of opportunity for some freezing rain/drizzle. Models
continue to advertise a decent warm nose advecting in over the still
cold boundary layer Monday night, even when going with an aggressive
non-diurnal temperature curve. Expect temperatures to be steady or
warming above freezing after midnight with 40s along the Kansas-
Missouri border by sunrise. These warm temperatures will surge up
into the 40s to around 50 during the daylight hours of Tuesday,
keeping most precipitation Tuesday of the liquid verity. However,
while confidence is high that temperatures will warm, what is not so
high is confidence in our actual POPs. Latest NAM runs are
significantly more dry along the Kansas-Missouri border, though they
still bring some scattered light precipitation to the region. Have
kept a bit closer to the the slightly more consistent GFS/ECMWF
solutions for now, but did trim POPs back along the western state-
line. Cold air will return Tuesday afternoon, likely resulting in a
non-diurnal temperatures curve and possibly bring enough cold air
back in to force a precipitation type conversion. However, current
thoughts are that any precipitation will likely end before the air-
mass cool enough.

While the potential for light freezing rain or drizzle is there
Monday night, especially across far northern Missouri, any icing
should not be much more than a glaze (few hundredths of an inch or
less), and with temperatures warming above freezing before sunrise
Tuesday we do not currently anticipate much issue outside the few
hours when the freezing rain is occurring.

Otherwise, cooler temperatures will prevail Wednesday and Thursday
as the West Coast trough moves through the Plains, allowing some
warm ridging to spread into Kansas and Missouri Friday and through
the weekend. Of note to watch; the 12Z NAM today was trying to
advertise a bit of a quick hitting snow storm occurring on the
leading edge of the cold airmass that will be sweeping across Kansas
and Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not confident enough to
adjust the forecast based on this one model, GFS and ECMWF have
something similar but track the shortwave trough farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR conditions will continue tonight through most of Monday as high
clouds stream across northern MO. Light and variable winds will
eventually begin to increase out of the east southeast by mid to late
morning, and then will gradually turn to the south southeast through
the day. MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region after
00z Tuesday, and could be accompanied by patchy freezing drizzle;
however, confidence is too low to warrant mentioning in the TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020533
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

With this weekends precipitable weather wrapping up this afternoon
focus is on our next event which will arrive Monday night into
Tuesday, or Wednesday, depending on the model solution you look at.
Synoptic scale pattern has not changed much, with expectations that
the low swirling over the California coast will dip far enough south
to induce some warm air advection across the Plains States Monday
into Tuesday. Models had been advertising a decent amount of return
moisture along with the warmer air for the beginning of the work
week.

Monday will be dry and cool with readings near normal, though as we
transit into the overnight hours the cool surface high will slide
east allowing the digging trough well to our west to induce the
return flow. This could bring precipitation into eastern Kansas and
Missouri as early as Monday evening, and if this occurs we will have
a brief window of opportunity for some freezing rain/drizzle. Models
continue to advertise a decent warm nose advecting in over the still
cold boundary layer Monday night, even when going with an aggressive
non-diurnal temperature curve. Expect temperatures to be steady or
warming above freezing after midnight with 40s along the Kansas-
Missouri border by sunrise. These warm temperatures will surge up
into the 40s to around 50 during the daylight hours of Tuesday,
keeping most precipitation Tuesday of the liquid verity. However,
while confidence is high that temperatures will warm, what is not so
high is confidence in our actual POPs. Latest NAM runs are
significantly more dry along the Kansas-Missouri border, though they
still bring some scattered light precipitation to the region. Have
kept a bit closer to the the slightly more consistent GFS/ECMWF
solutions for now, but did trim POPs back along the western state-
line. Cold air will return Tuesday afternoon, likely resulting in a
non-diurnal temperatures curve and possibly bring enough cold air
back in to force a precipitation type conversion. However, current
thoughts are that any precipitation will likely end before the air-
mass cool enough.

While the potential for light freezing rain or drizzle is there
Monday night, especially across far northern Missouri, any icing
should not be much more than a glaze (few hundredths of an inch or
less), and with temperatures warming above freezing before sunrise
Tuesday we do not currently anticipate much issue outside the few
hours when the freezing rain is occurring.

Otherwise, cooler temperatures will prevail Wednesday and Thursday
as the West Coast trough moves through the Plains, allowing some
warm ridging to spread into Kansas and Missouri Friday and through
the weekend. Of note to watch; the 12Z NAM today was trying to
advertise a bit of a quick hitting snow storm occurring on the
leading edge of the cold airmass that will be sweeping across Kansas
and Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not confident enough to
adjust the forecast based on this one model, GFS and ECMWF have
something similar but track the shortwave trough farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR conditions will continue tonight through most of Monday as high
clouds stream across northern MO. Light and variable winds will
eventually begin to increase out of the east southeast by mid to late
morning, and then will gradually turn to the south southeast through
the day. MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region after
00z Tuesday, and could be accompanied by patchy freezing drizzle;
however, confidence is too low to warrant mentioning in the TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 020533
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

With this weekends precipitable weather wrapping up this afternoon
focus is on our next event which will arrive Monday night into
Tuesday, or Wednesday, depending on the model solution you look at.
Synoptic scale pattern has not changed much, with expectations that
the low swirling over the California coast will dip far enough south
to induce some warm air advection across the Plains States Monday
into Tuesday. Models had been advertising a decent amount of return
moisture along with the warmer air for the beginning of the work
week.

Monday will be dry and cool with readings near normal, though as we
transit into the overnight hours the cool surface high will slide
east allowing the digging trough well to our west to induce the
return flow. This could bring precipitation into eastern Kansas and
Missouri as early as Monday evening, and if this occurs we will have
a brief window of opportunity for some freezing rain/drizzle. Models
continue to advertise a decent warm nose advecting in over the still
cold boundary layer Monday night, even when going with an aggressive
non-diurnal temperature curve. Expect temperatures to be steady or
warming above freezing after midnight with 40s along the Kansas-
Missouri border by sunrise. These warm temperatures will surge up
into the 40s to around 50 during the daylight hours of Tuesday,
keeping most precipitation Tuesday of the liquid verity. However,
while confidence is high that temperatures will warm, what is not so
high is confidence in our actual POPs. Latest NAM runs are
significantly more dry along the Kansas-Missouri border, though they
still bring some scattered light precipitation to the region. Have
kept a bit closer to the the slightly more consistent GFS/ECMWF
solutions for now, but did trim POPs back along the western state-
line. Cold air will return Tuesday afternoon, likely resulting in a
non-diurnal temperatures curve and possibly bring enough cold air
back in to force a precipitation type conversion. However, current
thoughts are that any precipitation will likely end before the air-
mass cool enough.

While the potential for light freezing rain or drizzle is there
Monday night, especially across far northern Missouri, any icing
should not be much more than a glaze (few hundredths of an inch or
less), and with temperatures warming above freezing before sunrise
Tuesday we do not currently anticipate much issue outside the few
hours when the freezing rain is occurring.

Otherwise, cooler temperatures will prevail Wednesday and Thursday
as the West Coast trough moves through the Plains, allowing some
warm ridging to spread into Kansas and Missouri Friday and through
the weekend. Of note to watch; the 12Z NAM today was trying to
advertise a bit of a quick hitting snow storm occurring on the
leading edge of the cold airmass that will be sweeping across Kansas
and Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not confident enough to
adjust the forecast based on this one model, GFS and ECMWF have
something similar but track the shortwave trough farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR conditions will continue tonight through most of Monday as high
clouds stream across northern MO. Light and variable winds will
eventually begin to increase out of the east southeast by mid to late
morning, and then will gradually turn to the south southeast through
the day. MVFR ceilings are expected to build into the region after
00z Tuesday, and could be accompanied by patchy freezing drizzle;
however, confidence is too low to warrant mentioning in the TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KSGF 020516
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.

High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.

Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s.  Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area.  Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet.  Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon.  Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.

As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains.  Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between.  The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis.  Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north.  The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.

After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020516
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.

High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.

Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s.  Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area.  Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet.  Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon.  Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.

As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains.  Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between.  The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis.  Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north.  The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.

After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020516
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.

High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.

Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s.  Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area.  Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet.  Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon.  Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.

As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains.  Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between.  The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis.  Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north.  The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.

After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020516
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.

High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.

Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s.  Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area.  Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet.  Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon.  Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.

As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains.  Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between.  The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis.  Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north.  The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.

After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 020516
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.

High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.

Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s.  Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area.  Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet.  Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon.  Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.

As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains.  Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between.  The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis.  Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north.  The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.

After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.

Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area  Monday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020400
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1000 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 929 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Have updated sky cover trends through late this evening as low
stratus has advected into the far southern CWA. Mid to high-level
cloudiness remain anchored for the moment across the far north. In
between...skies have become clear or mostly clear.
Consequently...temperatures are beginning to plummet with
light/variable winds. Have taken a stab at minimums tonight and
lowered them a couple of degrees where skies are expected to
remain clear the longest. Still expect an increase in mid/high
level clouds everywhere late tonight as quasi-zonal flow aloft advects
in clouds currently over KS/OK. Still probably am not cool enough
in some areas...and will watch trends through the remainder of the evening.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

W-E oriented band of precip continues to weaken along the I70
corridor, and dont expect much of this to linger past 00z.

Otherwise, it should be a dry night across the area. Clouds should
thin with time as mid level trof swings into the area and slowly
drags somewhat colder and drier air southward. Did not go too
cold at this point as it appears that some mid or high level
cloudiness will be streaming into the area after the lower clouds
clear, especially over the southern/southwest half of the CWA.
Based on this cloud trend have have gone with lows from the teens
north to the lower 20s south, but if clearing is more pronouced
these will likely be too warm.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Southward push of colder air overnight will reintensify surface
ridge, with the surface high then pushing through the mid-Mississippi
Valley during the day on Monday. This should mean a chilly but
tranquil day, with highs in the lower to middle 30s.

Active weather rapidly returns to the region Monday night as
return flow intensifies on the back side of the retreating surface
high. 12z models are in good agreement with earlier solutions
that intensifying isentropic ascent/WAA will cause another round
of wintry weather to develop. Although there could be a very brief
period of snow, primary ptype will be a mix of sleet and
rain/freezing rain. There could certainly be some sleet and minor
ice accumulations depending on how long surface temps remain below
freezing, but any ice should quickly melt early Tuesday as
surface temperatures rapidly warm through the 30s.

We should quickly...but briefly...have a taste of more spring-like
weather during the day on Tuesday, as warm air surges into the
region ahead of surface low that tracks from mid-Missouri Valley
into lower Michigan. As we get into the warm sector sensible
weather trends should be a bit more spring-like with showers
overspreading much of the area. Have continued a mention of
thunderstorms as well, but at this point instability looks fairly
meager.

We rapidly swing back to cold season mode Tuesday night and
Wednesday, as yet another surge of cold air works its way into the
Mississippi Valley. Ptypes will transition back from rain to snow
overnight Tuesday night as colder air undercuts the moisture, but
really not expecting much in the way of accumulation as precip
should end as freezing levels drop enough to support snow.

However, the pattern that is expected to develop by midweek is
certainly a bit more worrisome from a winter weather point of
view, as deeping trof from the western Lakes into the southern
Plains will allow pockets of energy and moisture to work east into
the cold air that is building into the region. All of the 12z
solutions suggest a band of precip developing from AR into the
lower Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday, but there is
considerable disagreement in where this axis...and especially
where the north edge of this precip...will set up. 12z NAM was
very far north with its QPF placement and it was such an outlier
I have disregarded its solution for now, and have used a consensus
of GFS and ECMWF for PoPs at this time. Another round of
accumulating snow will certainly not be out of the question for
our area depending of course on where the aforementioned band of
precip develops.

(Wednesday night through Sunday)

Midweek system should be exiting the area Wednesday night with
just some lingering light snow over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois. As strong surface ridge builds in, colder air
to slide south into region with lows in the single digits to mid
teens.

Sunny conditions return to the region on Thursday, but a lot of cold
air in place. Will only see highs in the upper teens to low 30s.

Surface ridge to move off to the southeast Thursday night allowing
southerly winds to return. Temperatures to begin moderating with
highs in the 40s for the rest of the extended.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 941 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

VFR thru the TAF period. Cigs will lower gradually on Mon. Winds
will remain light thru the period and veer thru the period to
eventually become sely by Mon eve.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 020400
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1000 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 929 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Have updated sky cover trends through late this evening as low
stratus has advected into the far southern CWA. Mid to high-level
cloudiness remain anchored for the moment across the far north. In
between...skies have become clear or mostly clear.
Consequently...temperatures are beginning to plummet with
light/variable winds. Have taken a stab at minimums tonight and
lowered them a couple of degrees where skies are expected to
remain clear the longest. Still expect an increase in mid/high
level clouds everywhere late tonight as quasi-zonal flow aloft advects
in clouds currently over KS/OK. Still probably am not cool enough
in some areas...and will watch trends through the remainder of the evening.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

W-E oriented band of precip continues to weaken along the I70
corridor, and dont expect much of this to linger past 00z.

Otherwise, it should be a dry night across the area. Clouds should
thin with time as mid level trof swings into the area and slowly
drags somewhat colder and drier air southward. Did not go too
cold at this point as it appears that some mid or high level
cloudiness will be streaming into the area after the lower clouds
clear, especially over the southern/southwest half of the CWA.
Based on this cloud trend have have gone with lows from the teens
north to the lower 20s south, but if clearing is more pronouced
these will likely be too warm.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Southward push of colder air overnight will reintensify surface
ridge, with the surface high then pushing through the mid-Mississippi
Valley during the day on Monday. This should mean a chilly but
tranquil day, with highs in the lower to middle 30s.

Active weather rapidly returns to the region Monday night as
return flow intensifies on the back side of the retreating surface
high. 12z models are in good agreement with earlier solutions
that intensifying isentropic ascent/WAA will cause another round
of wintry weather to develop. Although there could be a very brief
period of snow, primary ptype will be a mix of sleet and
rain/freezing rain. There could certainly be some sleet and minor
ice accumulations depending on how long surface temps remain below
freezing, but any ice should quickly melt early Tuesday as
surface temperatures rapidly warm through the 30s.

We should quickly...but briefly...have a taste of more spring-like
weather during the day on Tuesday, as warm air surges into the
region ahead of surface low that tracks from mid-Missouri Valley
into lower Michigan. As we get into the warm sector sensible
weather trends should be a bit more spring-like with showers
overspreading much of the area. Have continued a mention of
thunderstorms as well, but at this point instability looks fairly
meager.

We rapidly swing back to cold season mode Tuesday night and
Wednesday, as yet another surge of cold air works its way into the
Mississippi Valley. Ptypes will transition back from rain to snow
overnight Tuesday night as colder air undercuts the moisture, but
really not expecting much in the way of accumulation as precip
should end as freezing levels drop enough to support snow.

However, the pattern that is expected to develop by midweek is
certainly a bit more worrisome from a winter weather point of
view, as deeping trof from the western Lakes into the southern
Plains will allow pockets of energy and moisture to work east into
the cold air that is building into the region. All of the 12z
solutions suggest a band of precip developing from AR into the
lower Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday, but there is
considerable disagreement in where this axis...and especially
where the north edge of this precip...will set up. 12z NAM was
very far north with its QPF placement and it was such an outlier
I have disregarded its solution for now, and have used a consensus
of GFS and ECMWF for PoPs at this time. Another round of
accumulating snow will certainly not be out of the question for
our area depending of course on where the aforementioned band of
precip develops.

(Wednesday night through Sunday)

Midweek system should be exiting the area Wednesday night with
just some lingering light snow over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois. As strong surface ridge builds in, colder air
to slide south into region with lows in the single digits to mid
teens.

Sunny conditions return to the region on Thursday, but a lot of cold
air in place. Will only see highs in the upper teens to low 30s.

Surface ridge to move off to the southeast Thursday night allowing
southerly winds to return. Temperatures to begin moderating with
highs in the 40s for the rest of the extended.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 941 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

VFR thru the TAF period. Cigs will lower gradually on Mon. Winds
will remain light thru the period and veer thru the period to
eventually become sely by Mon eve.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020333
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
933 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 929 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Have updated sky cover trends through late this evening as low
stratus has advected into the far southern CWA. Mid to high-level
cloudiness remain anchored for the moment across the far north. In
between...skies have become clear or mostly clear.
Consequently...temperatures are beginning to plummet with
light/variable winds. Have taken a stab at minimums tonight and
lowered them a couple of degrees where skies are expected to
remain clear the longest. Still expect an increase in mid/high
level clouds everywhere late tonight as quasi-zonal flow aloft advects
in clouds currently over KS/OK. Still probably am not cool enough
in some areas...and will watch trends through the remainder of the evening.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

W-E oriented band of precip continues to weaken along the I70
corridor, and dont expect much of this to linger past 00z.

Otherwise, it should be a dry night across the area. Clouds should
thin with time as mid level trof swings into the area and slowly
drags somewhat colder and drier air southward. Did not go too
cold at this point as it appears that some mid or high level
cloudiness will be streaming into the area after the lower clouds
clear, especially over the southern/southwest half of the CWA.
Based on this cloud trend have have gone with lows from the teens
north to the lower 20s south, but if clearing is more pronouced
these will likely be too warm.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Southward push of colder air overnight will reintensify surface
ridge, with the surface high then pushing through the mid-Mississippi
Valley during the day on Monday. This should mean a chilly but
tranquil day, with highs in the lower to middle 30s.

Active weather rapidly returns to the region Monday night as
return flow intensifies on the back side of the retreating surface
high. 12z models are in good agreement with earlier solutions
that intensifying isentropic ascent/WAA will cause another round
of wintry weather to develop. Although there could be a very brief
period of snow, primary ptype will be a mix of sleet and
rain/freezing rain. There could certainly be some sleet and minor
ice accumulations depending on how long surface temps remain below
freezing, but any ice should quickly melt early Tuesday as
surface temperatures rapidly warm through the 30s.

We should quickly...but briefly...have a taste of more spring-like
weather during the day on Tuesday, as warm air surges into the
region ahead of surface low that tracks from mid-Missouri Valley
into lower Michigan. As we get into the warm sector sensible
weather trends should be a bit more spring-like with showers
overspreading much of the area. Have continued a mention of
thunderstorms as well, but at this point instability looks fairly
meager.

We rapidly swing back to cold season mode Tuesday night and
Wednesday, as yet another surge of cold air works its way into the
Mississippi Valley. Ptypes will transition back from rain to snow
overnight Tuesday night as colder air undercuts the moisture, but
really not expecting much in the way of accumulation as precip
should end as freezing levels drop enough to support snow.

However, the pattern that is expected to develop by midweek is
certainly a bit more worrisome from a winter weather point of
view, as deeping trof from the western Lakes into the southern
Plains will allow pockets of energy and moisture to work east into
the cold air that is building into the region. All of the 12z
solutions suggest a band of precip developing from AR into the
lower Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday, but there is
considerable disagreement in where this axis...and especially
where the north edge of this precip...will set up. 12z NAM was
very far north with its QPF placement and it was such an outlier
I have disregarded its solution for now, and have used a consensus
of GFS and ECMWF for PoPs at this time. Another round of
accumulating snow will certainly not be out of the question for
our area depending of course on where the aforementioned band of
precip develops.

(Wednesday night through Sunday)

Midweek system should be exiting the area Wednesday night with
just some lingering light snow over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois. As strong surface ridge builds in, colder air
to slide south into region with lows in the single digits to mid
teens.

Sunny conditions return to the region on Thursday, but a lot of cold
air in place. Will only see highs in the upper teens to low 30s.

Surface ridge to move off to the southeast Thursday night allowing
southerly winds to return. Temperatures to begin moderating with
highs in the 40s for the rest of the extended.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Any MVFR cigs are expected to dissipate over the next hour or two.
Remainder of the TAF period is expected to be VFR with winds aob 8
kts. Winds will gradually veer overnight and on Mon as a sfc ridge
moves ewd across nrn portions of the area. High to mid level cigs
will gradually lower late tonight into Mon morning.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020333
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
933 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 929 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Have updated sky cover trends through late this evening as low
stratus has advected into the far southern CWA. Mid to high-level
cloudiness remain anchored for the moment across the far north. In
between...skies have become clear or mostly clear.
Consequently...temperatures are beginning to plummet with
light/variable winds. Have taken a stab at minimums tonight and
lowered them a couple of degrees where skies are expected to
remain clear the longest. Still expect an increase in mid/high
level clouds everywhere late tonight as quasi-zonal flow aloft advects
in clouds currently over KS/OK. Still probably am not cool enough
in some areas...and will watch trends through the remainder of the evening.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

W-E oriented band of precip continues to weaken along the I70
corridor, and dont expect much of this to linger past 00z.

Otherwise, it should be a dry night across the area. Clouds should
thin with time as mid level trof swings into the area and slowly
drags somewhat colder and drier air southward. Did not go too
cold at this point as it appears that some mid or high level
cloudiness will be streaming into the area after the lower clouds
clear, especially over the southern/southwest half of the CWA.
Based on this cloud trend have have gone with lows from the teens
north to the lower 20s south, but if clearing is more pronouced
these will likely be too warm.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Southward push of colder air overnight will reintensify surface
ridge, with the surface high then pushing through the mid-Mississippi
Valley during the day on Monday. This should mean a chilly but
tranquil day, with highs in the lower to middle 30s.

Active weather rapidly returns to the region Monday night as
return flow intensifies on the back side of the retreating surface
high. 12z models are in good agreement with earlier solutions
that intensifying isentropic ascent/WAA will cause another round
of wintry weather to develop. Although there could be a very brief
period of snow, primary ptype will be a mix of sleet and
rain/freezing rain. There could certainly be some sleet and minor
ice accumulations depending on how long surface temps remain below
freezing, but any ice should quickly melt early Tuesday as
surface temperatures rapidly warm through the 30s.

We should quickly...but briefly...have a taste of more spring-like
weather during the day on Tuesday, as warm air surges into the
region ahead of surface low that tracks from mid-Missouri Valley
into lower Michigan. As we get into the warm sector sensible
weather trends should be a bit more spring-like with showers
overspreading much of the area. Have continued a mention of
thunderstorms as well, but at this point instability looks fairly
meager.

We rapidly swing back to cold season mode Tuesday night and
Wednesday, as yet another surge of cold air works its way into the
Mississippi Valley. Ptypes will transition back from rain to snow
overnight Tuesday night as colder air undercuts the moisture, but
really not expecting much in the way of accumulation as precip
should end as freezing levels drop enough to support snow.

However, the pattern that is expected to develop by midweek is
certainly a bit more worrisome from a winter weather point of
view, as deeping trof from the western Lakes into the southern
Plains will allow pockets of energy and moisture to work east into
the cold air that is building into the region. All of the 12z
solutions suggest a band of precip developing from AR into the
lower Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday, but there is
considerable disagreement in where this axis...and especially
where the north edge of this precip...will set up. 12z NAM was
very far north with its QPF placement and it was such an outlier
I have disregarded its solution for now, and have used a consensus
of GFS and ECMWF for PoPs at this time. Another round of
accumulating snow will certainly not be out of the question for
our area depending of course on where the aforementioned band of
precip develops.

(Wednesday night through Sunday)

Midweek system should be exiting the area Wednesday night with
just some lingering light snow over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois. As strong surface ridge builds in, colder air
to slide south into region with lows in the single digits to mid
teens.

Sunny conditions return to the region on Thursday, but a lot of cold
air in place. Will only see highs in the upper teens to low 30s.

Surface ridge to move off to the southeast Thursday night allowing
southerly winds to return. Temperatures to begin moderating with
highs in the 40s for the rest of the extended.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Any MVFR cigs are expected to dissipate over the next hour or two.
Remainder of the TAF period is expected to be VFR with winds aob 8
kts. Winds will gradually veer overnight and on Mon as a sfc ridge
moves ewd across nrn portions of the area. High to mid level cigs
will gradually lower late tonight into Mon morning.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020333
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
933 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 929 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Have updated sky cover trends through late this evening as low
stratus has advected into the far southern CWA. Mid to high-level
cloudiness remain anchored for the moment across the far north. In
between...skies have become clear or mostly clear.
Consequently...temperatures are beginning to plummet with
light/variable winds. Have taken a stab at minimums tonight and
lowered them a couple of degrees where skies are expected to
remain clear the longest. Still expect an increase in mid/high
level clouds everywhere late tonight as quasi-zonal flow aloft advects
in clouds currently over KS/OK. Still probably am not cool enough
in some areas...and will watch trends through the remainder of the evening.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

W-E oriented band of precip continues to weaken along the I70
corridor, and dont expect much of this to linger past 00z.

Otherwise, it should be a dry night across the area. Clouds should
thin with time as mid level trof swings into the area and slowly
drags somewhat colder and drier air southward. Did not go too
cold at this point as it appears that some mid or high level
cloudiness will be streaming into the area after the lower clouds
clear, especially over the southern/southwest half of the CWA.
Based on this cloud trend have have gone with lows from the teens
north to the lower 20s south, but if clearing is more pronouced
these will likely be too warm.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Southward push of colder air overnight will reintensify surface
ridge, with the surface high then pushing through the mid-Mississippi
Valley during the day on Monday. This should mean a chilly but
tranquil day, with highs in the lower to middle 30s.

Active weather rapidly returns to the region Monday night as
return flow intensifies on the back side of the retreating surface
high. 12z models are in good agreement with earlier solutions
that intensifying isentropic ascent/WAA will cause another round
of wintry weather to develop. Although there could be a very brief
period of snow, primary ptype will be a mix of sleet and
rain/freezing rain. There could certainly be some sleet and minor
ice accumulations depending on how long surface temps remain below
freezing, but any ice should quickly melt early Tuesday as
surface temperatures rapidly warm through the 30s.

We should quickly...but briefly...have a taste of more spring-like
weather during the day on Tuesday, as warm air surges into the
region ahead of surface low that tracks from mid-Missouri Valley
into lower Michigan. As we get into the warm sector sensible
weather trends should be a bit more spring-like with showers
overspreading much of the area. Have continued a mention of
thunderstorms as well, but at this point instability looks fairly
meager.

We rapidly swing back to cold season mode Tuesday night and
Wednesday, as yet another surge of cold air works its way into the
Mississippi Valley. Ptypes will transition back from rain to snow
overnight Tuesday night as colder air undercuts the moisture, but
really not expecting much in the way of accumulation as precip
should end as freezing levels drop enough to support snow.

However, the pattern that is expected to develop by midweek is
certainly a bit more worrisome from a winter weather point of
view, as deeping trof from the western Lakes into the southern
Plains will allow pockets of energy and moisture to work east into
the cold air that is building into the region. All of the 12z
solutions suggest a band of precip developing from AR into the
lower Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday, but there is
considerable disagreement in where this axis...and especially
where the north edge of this precip...will set up. 12z NAM was
very far north with its QPF placement and it was such an outlier
I have disregarded its solution for now, and have used a consensus
of GFS and ECMWF for PoPs at this time. Another round of
accumulating snow will certainly not be out of the question for
our area depending of course on where the aforementioned band of
precip develops.

(Wednesday night through Sunday)

Midweek system should be exiting the area Wednesday night with
just some lingering light snow over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois. As strong surface ridge builds in, colder air
to slide south into region with lows in the single digits to mid
teens.

Sunny conditions return to the region on Thursday, but a lot of cold
air in place. Will only see highs in the upper teens to low 30s.

Surface ridge to move off to the southeast Thursday night allowing
southerly winds to return. Temperatures to begin moderating with
highs in the 40s for the rest of the extended.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Any MVFR cigs are expected to dissipate over the next hour or two.
Remainder of the TAF period is expected to be VFR with winds aob 8
kts. Winds will gradually veer overnight and on Mon as a sfc ridge
moves ewd across nrn portions of the area. High to mid level cigs
will gradually lower late tonight into Mon morning.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 020333
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
933 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 929 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Have updated sky cover trends through late this evening as low
stratus has advected into the far southern CWA. Mid to high-level
cloudiness remain anchored for the moment across the far north. In
between...skies have become clear or mostly clear.
Consequently...temperatures are beginning to plummet with
light/variable winds. Have taken a stab at minimums tonight and
lowered them a couple of degrees where skies are expected to
remain clear the longest. Still expect an increase in mid/high
level clouds everywhere late tonight as quasi-zonal flow aloft advects
in clouds currently over KS/OK. Still probably am not cool enough
in some areas...and will watch trends through the remainder of the evening.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

W-E oriented band of precip continues to weaken along the I70
corridor, and dont expect much of this to linger past 00z.

Otherwise, it should be a dry night across the area. Clouds should
thin with time as mid level trof swings into the area and slowly
drags somewhat colder and drier air southward. Did not go too
cold at this point as it appears that some mid or high level
cloudiness will be streaming into the area after the lower clouds
clear, especially over the southern/southwest half of the CWA.
Based on this cloud trend have have gone with lows from the teens
north to the lower 20s south, but if clearing is more pronouced
these will likely be too warm.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Southward push of colder air overnight will reintensify surface
ridge, with the surface high then pushing through the mid-Mississippi
Valley during the day on Monday. This should mean a chilly but
tranquil day, with highs in the lower to middle 30s.

Active weather rapidly returns to the region Monday night as
return flow intensifies on the back side of the retreating surface
high. 12z models are in good agreement with earlier solutions
that intensifying isentropic ascent/WAA will cause another round
of wintry weather to develop. Although there could be a very brief
period of snow, primary ptype will be a mix of sleet and
rain/freezing rain. There could certainly be some sleet and minor
ice accumulations depending on how long surface temps remain below
freezing, but any ice should quickly melt early Tuesday as
surface temperatures rapidly warm through the 30s.

We should quickly...but briefly...have a taste of more spring-like
weather during the day on Tuesday, as warm air surges into the
region ahead of surface low that tracks from mid-Missouri Valley
into lower Michigan. As we get into the warm sector sensible
weather trends should be a bit more spring-like with showers
overspreading much of the area. Have continued a mention of
thunderstorms as well, but at this point instability looks fairly
meager.

We rapidly swing back to cold season mode Tuesday night and
Wednesday, as yet another surge of cold air works its way into the
Mississippi Valley. Ptypes will transition back from rain to snow
overnight Tuesday night as colder air undercuts the moisture, but
really not expecting much in the way of accumulation as precip
should end as freezing levels drop enough to support snow.

However, the pattern that is expected to develop by midweek is
certainly a bit more worrisome from a winter weather point of
view, as deeping trof from the western Lakes into the southern
Plains will allow pockets of energy and moisture to work east into
the cold air that is building into the region. All of the 12z
solutions suggest a band of precip developing from AR into the
lower Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday, but there is
considerable disagreement in where this axis...and especially
where the north edge of this precip...will set up. 12z NAM was
very far north with its QPF placement and it was such an outlier
I have disregarded its solution for now, and have used a consensus
of GFS and ECMWF for PoPs at this time. Another round of
accumulating snow will certainly not be out of the question for
our area depending of course on where the aforementioned band of
precip develops.

(Wednesday night through Sunday)

Midweek system should be exiting the area Wednesday night with
just some lingering light snow over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois. As strong surface ridge builds in, colder air
to slide south into region with lows in the single digits to mid
teens.

Sunny conditions return to the region on Thursday, but a lot of cold
air in place. Will only see highs in the upper teens to low 30s.

Surface ridge to move off to the southeast Thursday night allowing
southerly winds to return. Temperatures to begin moderating with
highs in the 40s for the rest of the extended.

Truett/Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

Any MVFR cigs are expected to dissipate over the next hour or two.
Remainder of the TAF period is expected to be VFR with winds aob 8
kts. Winds will gradually veer overnight and on Mon as a sfc ridge
moves ewd across nrn portions of the area. High to mid level cigs
will gradually lower late tonight into Mon morning.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







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