[top]
000
FXUS63 KSGF 240505
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO
THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THOSE AREAS.
AT THIS TIME FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 8OS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOSTER
[top]
000
FXUS63 KEAX 240458
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT Thu May 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Upper pattern is evolving as a deep upper trough pulls further away
while an upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east through the
Plains. Although one usually associates the arrival of an upper
level ridge with minimal precipitation this time it will be
different as a series of shortwaves and increasing isentropic ascent
results in a prolonged period of periodic convection...starting
Friday night. This will result in a change from benign and below
average temperatures on Friday to increasing rain chances, elevated
humidity and slightly above average temperatures by Saturday.
For tonight, surface ridging associated with high pressure over
Saskatchewan and western Ontario extends south through eastern
NE/western IA. This has nudged a weak surface trough out of the CWA
and the resulting subsidence and daytime mixing are finally eroding
the extensive stratocu field from the north and west. These clouds
will likely linger into the early evening and be last to clear from
the east central counties. The rest of the night will be generally
clear and a good candidate for strong radiational cooling.
Mid level cloudiness will increase from west to east on Friday as
warm air advection aloft spreads east. Will keep the CWA dry due to
a continued dry east-southeasterly which maintains a very dry
elevated mixed layer until late in the day. The southerly low level
jet plus increasing instability and isentropic lift will become key
players in the development of scattered convection over KS on Friday
and likely a MCS over IA Friday night which will probably backbuild
into the northern CWA. Both the the 12z NAM and ECMWF mass fields
hint a convective outflow boundary could propagate southwest into
the now southwesterly oriented low level jet. It`s also possible new
convection could reform further south over the CWA during the day on
Saturday. There are a number of potential ifs but the general
theme for Saturday is be prepared for scattered convection,
especially in the afternoon as the cap is eroded.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Forecast for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into the next
week continues to look unsettled. Mid-range operational and ensemble
models continue to advertise the persistence of a blocking pattern
across the United States through the weekend, with some possibility
of the pattern flattening out late next week. However, till the
pattern flattens, the shortwave ridge will reside across the Plains,
continuing to interact with shortwave troughs moving through, and
ejecting from, the trough on the west coast. Severe thunderstorm
activity is not expected to be significant problem. While Gulf
moisture will be available, shear profiles under the ridge will be a
little messy, making it difficult for storms to organize. Have
continued to broad brush in thunderstorms POPs trough these periods.
Otherwise, temperatures under the shortwave ridge will slowly climb
over the weekend, settling above normal early next work week. So,
while hit or miss storms will plague the weekend, at least
temperatures will be pleasant.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period, with clear
skies overnight giving way to scattered midlevel clouds by mid- to
late-morning Friday. A thicker deck of midlevel clouds with bases
around 10 kft will build in during the evening, and a few showers or
isolated thunderstorms will be possible across far northern Missouri
by late Friday evening into the early overnight hours.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin
[top]
000
FXUS63 KLSX 240433
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1133 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND SWRN IL
HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVNG ALONG WITH MOST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. A LITTLE HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS MAY ADVECT E-NEWD INTO SERN MO
...OTHERWISE A CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NGT AS THE RELATIVELY LARGE AND STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BUILDS SWD INTO ERN MO AND IL. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TGT UNDERNEATH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DUE
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT SFC WIND...AND SFC DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BY 12Z FRI. LOW
TEMPERATURES TGT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NGT AND ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN BACK SIDE OF GREAT LAKES TROF HAS
MAINTAINED A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THINK
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER ADVECT OUT OF OUR AREA OR
DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IF IT
DOES...IT SHOULDN`T LAST MUCH PAST SUNSET.
RATHER EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT SC DECK IS ALSO HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS
AREA. HOWEVER CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CUMULIFORM WITH
TIME....SO BELIEVE CLEARING IS STILL IN THE OFFING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
SINCE WE`RE STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DECREASING CLOUD TREND
TONIGHT...I`VE REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EVENING ON THE CHILLY SIDE...AND WITH
THE SWD PUSH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE AREA WINDS SHOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW DURING TIME OF MAX
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRUETT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PCPN CHCS.
A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE WRN GRTLKS ON FRI
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO MO/IL. ELY SFC FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL ON FRI/FRI NIGHT
IN ADDITION TO REINFORCING A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A DVLPG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL
REORIENT THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIFT IT NEWD AS A
WMFNT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY ON SAT ACROSS CENTRAL MO
DUE TO BOTH THE WMFNT AND THE LATE MAY SUN ANGLE. THE EXTENT OF
WARMING ACROSS WRN/SWRN IL FOR THE WEEKEND IS MORE IN QUESTION
BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE LOCATION OF NOCTURNAL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND THE EFFECT OF THEIR OUTFLOWS ON
THE POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WRN/SWRN
IL WILL WARM UP ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THAT MAY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS UPSTREAM.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE LLJ MAY REACH THE NWRN CWA ON
LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. A FEW VORT MAXES MAY TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THESE FEATURES MAY SUPPORT SCT
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FCST WX PATTERN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR NIGHTLY MCS DVLPMT ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE LSX CWA DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT EACH NIGHT AND ITS ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE LLJ AXIS.
UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD ALSO PRODUCE AN MCV WHICH THEN FOCUSES
TSRA DVLPMT IN OUR AREA ON THE FOLLOWING AFTN. THESE KINDS OF
MESOSCALE DETAILS CANNOT BE FCST VERY FAR IN ADVANCE THEREFORE
THIS FCST PACKAGE MAINTAINS CHC POPS /HIGHER VALUES WHERE MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT/ FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE UNKNOWN ATTM.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONCE A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DVLPS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS THE
UPPER AIR PATTN OVER MO/IL FROM RIDGING TO SW FLOW. GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR HOW THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS
THEREFORE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE RECOMMENDED CR INITIALIZATION FOR
TUE AND BEYOND.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT
30 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 240242
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
942 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND SWRN IL
HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVNG ALONG WITH MOST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. A LITTLE HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS MAY ADVECT E-NEWD INTO SERN MO
...OTHERWISE A CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NGT AS THE RELATIVELY LARGE AND STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BUILDS SWD INTO ERN MO AND IL. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TGT UNDERNEATH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DUE
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT SFC WIND...AND SFC DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BY 12Z FRI. LOW
TEMPERATURES TGT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NGT AND ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN BACK SIDE OF GREAT LAKES TROF HAS
MAINTAINED A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THINK
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER ADVECT OUT OF OUR AREA OR
DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IF IT
DOES...IT SHOULDN`T LAST MUCH PAST SUNSET.
RATHER EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT SC DECK IS ALSO HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS
AREA. HOWEVER CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CUMULIFORM WITH
TIME....SO BELIEVE CLEARING IS STILL IN THE OFFING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
SINCE WE`RE STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DECREASING CLOUD TREND
TONIGHT...I`VE REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EVENING ON THE CHILLY SIDE...AND WITH
THE SWD PUSH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE AREA WINDS SHOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW DURING TIME OF MAX
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRUETT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PCPN CHCS.
A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE WRN GRTLKS ON FRI
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO MO/IL. ELY SFC FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL ON FRI/FRI NIGHT
IN ADDITION TO REINFORCING A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A DVLPG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL
REORIENT THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIFT IT NEWD AS A
WMFNT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY ON SAT ACROSS CENTRAL MO
DUE TO BOTH THE WMFNT AND THE LATE MAY SUN ANGLE. THE EXTENT OF
WARMING ACROSS WRN/SWRN IL FOR THE WEEKEND IS MORE IN QUESTION
BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE LOCATION OF NOCTURNAL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND THE EFFECT OF THEIR OUTFLOWS ON
THE POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WRN/SWRN
IL WILL WARM UP ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THAT MAY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS UPSTREAM.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE LLJ MAY REACH THE NWRN CWA ON
LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. A FEW VORT MAXES MAY TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THESE FEATURES MAY SUPPORT SCT
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FCST WX PATTERN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR NIGHTLY MCS DVLPMT ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE LSX CWA DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT EACH NIGHT AND ITS ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE LLJ AXIS.
UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD ALSO PRODUCE AN MCV WHICH THEN FOCUSES
TSRA DVLPMT IN OUR AREA ON THE FOLLOWING AFTN. THESE KINDS OF
MESOSCALE DETAILS CANNOT BE FCST VERY FAR IN ADVANCE THEREFORE
THIS FCST PACKAGE MAINTAINS CHC POPS /HIGHER VALUES WHERE MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT/ FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE UNKNOWN ATTM.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONCE A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DVLPS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS THE
UPPER AIR PATTN OVER MO/IL FROM RIDGING TO SW FLOW. GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR HOW THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS
THEREFORE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE RECOMMENDED CR INITIALIZATION FOR
TUE AND BEYOND.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE ST. METRO TAF SITES...SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY 03Z
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE
EAST MID MORNING FRIDAY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EXPECT THAT CEILINGS AT KSTL WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 00Z. SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SLOWLY
VEERING FROM NORTH TO EAST BY 14Z ON FRIDAY.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 240011
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO
THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THOSE AREAS.
AT THIS TIME FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 8OS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER
TEH REGION BUT WILL NOT IMPACT AREA TERMINALS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...HATCH
000
FXUS63 KEAX 232313
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 PM CDT Thu May 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Upper pattern is evolving as a deep upper trough pulls further away
while an upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east through the
Plains. Although one usually associates the arrival of an upper
level ridge with minimal precipitation this time it will be
different as a series of shortwaves and increasing isentropic ascent
results in a prolonged period of periodic convection...starting
Friday night. This will result in a change from benign and below
average temperatures on Friday to increasing rain chances, elevated
humidity and slightly above average temperatures by Saturday.
For tonight, surface ridging associated with high pressure over
Saskatchewan and western Ontario extends south through eastern
NE/western IA. This has nudged a weak surface trough out of the CWA
and the resulting subsidence and daytime mixing are finally eroding
the extensive stratocu field from the north and west. These clouds
will likely linger into the early evening and be last to clear from
the east central counties. The rest of the night will be generally
clear and a good candidate for strong radiational cooling.
Mid level cloudiness will increase from west to east on Friday as
warm air advection aloft spreads east. Will keep the CWA dry due to
a continued dry east-southeasterly which maintains a very dry
elevated mixed layer until late in the day. The southerly low level
jet plus increasing instability and isentropic lift will become key
players in the development of scattered convection over KS on Friday
and likely a MCS over IA Friday night which will probably backbuild
into the northern CWA. Both the the 12z NAM and ECMWF mass fields
hint a convective outflow boundary could propagate southwest into
the now southwesterly oriented low level jet. It`s also possible new
convection could reform further south over the CWA during the day on
Saturday. There are a number of potential ifs but the general
theme for Saturday is be prepared for scattered convection,
especially in the afternoon as the cap is eroded.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Forecast for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into the next
week continues to look unsettled. Mid-range operational and ensemble
models continue to advertise the persistence of a blocking pattern
across the United States through the weekend, with some possibility
of the pattern flattening out late next week. However, till the
pattern flattens, the shortwave ridge will reside across the Plains,
continuing to interact with shortwave troughs moving through, and
ejecting from, the trough on the west coast. Severe thunderstorm
activity is not expected to be significant problem. While Gulf
moisture will be available, shear profiles under the ridge will be a
little messy, making it difficult for storms to organize. Have
continued to broad brush in thunderstorms POPs trough these periods.
Otherwise, temperatures under the shortwave ridge will slowly climb
over the weekend, settling above normal early next work week. So,
while hit or miss storms will plague the weekend, at least
temperatures will be pleasant.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Stratocumulus with bases between 3-4 kft will continue to erode
across the area this evening, but will be slowest to dissipate over
far northeast KS through the KC metro area. All areas should be
mainly clear from 03z through early Friday. During the late morning
hours Friday, midlevel clouds will begin to build into the region
from west to east, but bases should stay around or above 10,000 ft.
Winds will gradually shift from east to southeast through the TAF
period and should remain between 5 to 15 kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin
000
FXUS63 KLSX 232308
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN BACK SIDE OF GREAT LAKES TROF HAS
MAINTAINED A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THINK
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER ADVECT OUT OF OUR AREA OR
DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IF IT
DOES...IT SHOULDN`T LAST MUCH PAST SUNSET.
RATHER EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT SC DECK IS ALSO HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS
AREA. HOWEVER CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CUMULIFORM WITH
TIME....SO BELIEVE CLEARING IS STILL IN THE OFFING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
SINCE WE`RE STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DECREASING CLOUD TREND
TONIGHT...I`VE REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EVENING ON THE CHILLY SIDE...AND WITH
THE SWD PUSH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE AREA WINDS SHOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW DURING TIME OF MAX
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRUETT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PCPN CHCS.
A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE WRN GRTLKS ON FRI
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO MO/IL. ELY SFC FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL ON FRI/FRI NIGHT
IN ADDITION TO REINFORCING A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A DVLPG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL
REORIENT THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIFT IT NEWD AS A
WMFNT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY ON SAT ACROSS CENTRAL MO
DUE TO BOTH THE WMFNT AND THE LATE MAY SUN ANGLE. THE EXTENT OF
WARMING ACROSS WRN/SWRN IL FOR THE WEEKEND IS MORE IN QUESTION
BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE LOCATION OF NOCTURNAL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND THE EFFECT OF THEIR OUTFLOWS ON
THE POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WRN/SWRN
IL WILL WARM UP ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THAT MAY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS UPSTREAM.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE LLJ MAY REACH THE NWRN CWA ON
LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. A FEW VORT MAXES MAY TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THESE FEATURES MAY SUPPORT SCT
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FCST WX PATTERN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR NIGHTLY MCS DVLPMT ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE LSX CWA DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT EACH NIGHT AND ITS ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE LLJ AXIS.
UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD ALSO PRODUCE AN MCV WHICH THEN FOCUSES
TSRA DVLPMT IN OUR AREA ON THE FOLLOWING AFTN. THESE KINDS OF
MESOSCALE DETAILS CANNOT BE FCST VERY FAR IN ADVANCE THEREFORE
THIS FCST PACKAGE MAINTAINS CHC POPS /HIGHER VALUES WHERE MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT/ FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE UNKNOWN ATTM.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONCE A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DVLPS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS THE
UPPER AIR PATTN OVER MO/IL FROM RIDGING TO SW FLOW. GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR HOW THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS
THEREFORE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE RECOMMENDED CR INITIALIZATION FOR
TUE AND BEYOND.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE ST. METRO TAF SITES...SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY 03Z
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE
EAST MID MORNING FRIDAY.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EXPECT THAT CEILINGS AT KSTL WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 00Z. SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SLOWLY
VEERING FROM NORTH TO EAST BY 14Z ON FRIDAY.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 232111
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
411 PM CDT Thu May 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Upper pattern is evolving as a deep upper trough pulls further away
while an upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east through the
Plains. Although one usually associates the arrival of an upper
level ridge with minimal precipitation this time it will be
different as a series of shortwaves and increasing isentropic ascent
results in a prolonged period of periodic convection...starting
Friday night. This will result in a change from benign and below
average temperatures on Friday to increasing rain chances, elevated
humidity and slightly above average temperatures by Saturday.
For tonight, surface ridging associated with high pressure over
Saskatchewan and western Ontario extends south through eastern
NE/western IA. This has nudged a weak surface trough out of the CWA
and the resulting subsidence and daytime mixing are finally eroding
the extensive stratocu field from the north and west. These clouds
will likely linger into the early evening and be last to clear from
the east central counties. The rest of the night will be generally
clear and a good candidate for strong radiational cooling.
Mid level cloudiness will increase from west to east on Friday as
warm air advection aloft spreads east. Will keep the CWA dry due to
a continued dry east-southeasterly which maintains a very dry
elevated mixed layer until late in the day. The southerly low level
jet plus increasing instability and isentropic lift will become key
players in the development of scattered convection over KS on Friday
and likely a MCS over IA Friday night which will probably backbuild
into the northern CWA. Both the the 12z NAM and ECMWF mass fields
hint a convective outflow boundary could propagate southwest into
the now southwesterly oriented low level jet. It`s also possible new
convection could reform further south over the CWA during the day on
Saturday. There are a number of potential ifs but the general
theme for Saturday is be prepared for scattered convection,
especially in the afternoon as the cap is eroded.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Forecast for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into the next
week continues to look unsettled. Mid-range operational and ensemble
models continue to advertise the persistence of a blocking pattern
across the United States through the weekend, with some possibility
of the pattern flattening out late next week. However, till the
pattern flattens, the shortwave ridge will reside across the Plains,
continuing to interact with shortwave troughs moving through, and
ejecting from, the trough on the west coast. Severe thunderstorm
activity is not expected to be significant problem. While Gulf
moisture will be available, shear profiles under the ridge will be a
little messy, making it difficult for storms to organize. Have
continued to broad brush in thunderstorms POPs trough these periods.
Otherwise, temperatures under the shortwave ridge will slowly climb
over the weekend, settling above normal early next work week. So,
while hit or miss storms will plague the weekend, at least
temperatures will be pleasant.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Extensive area of MVFR ceilings from northeast/east central KS across
northern half of MO will gradually lift to VFR with afternoon mixing
as well as gradually clear from the north. However, broken VFR
ceilings could linger into the early evening hours before scattering
out. None of the short range models have a good handle on this cloud
cover although the 12z NAM comes closest.
Winds will gradually veer from the north to southeast during this
forecast period. Warm air advection aloft will spread an altocu deck
eastward tomorrow.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ
000
FXUS63 KLSX 232033
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
333 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN BACK SIDE OF GREAT LAKES TROF HAS
MAINTAINED A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THINK
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER ADVECT OUT OF OUR AREA OR
DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IF IT
DOES...IT SHOULDN`T LAST MUCH PAST SUNSET.
RATHER EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT SC DECK IS ALSO HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS
AREA. HOWEVER CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CUMULIFORM WITH
TIME....SO BELIEVE CLEARING IS STILL IN THE OFFING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
SINCE WE`RE STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DECREASING CLOUD TREND
TONIGHT...I`VE REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EVENING ON THE CHILLY SIDE...AND WITH
THE SWD PUSH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE AREA WINDS SHOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW DURING TIME OF MAX
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRUETT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PCPN CHCS.
A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE WRN GRTLKS ON FRI
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO MO/IL. ELY SFC FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL ON FRI/FRI NIGHT
IN ADDITION TO REINFORCING A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A DVLPG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL
REORIENT THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIFT IT NEWD AS A
WMFNT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY ON SAT ACROSS CENTRAL MO
DUE TO BOTH THE WMFNT AND THE LATE MAY SUN ANGLE. THE EXTENT OF
WARMING ACROSS WRN/SWRN IL FOR THE WEEKEND IS MORE IN QUESTION
BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE LOCATION OF NOCTURNAL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND THE EFFECT OF THEIR OUTFLOWS ON
THE POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WRN/SWRN
IL WILL WARM UP ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THAT MAY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS UPSTREAM.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE LLJ MAY REACH THE NWRN CWA ON
LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. A FEW VORT MAXES MAY TRY TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THESE FEATURES MAY SUPPORT SCT
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FCST WX PATTERN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR NIGHTLY MCS DVLPMT ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE LSX CWA DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT EACH NIGHT AND ITS ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE LLJ AXIS.
UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD ALSO PRODUCE AN MCV WHICH THEN FOCUSES
TSRA DVLPMT IN OUR AREA ON THE FOLLOWING AFTN. THESE KINDS OF
MESOSCALE DETAILS CANNOT BE FCST VERY FAR IN ADVANCE THEREFORE
THIS FCST PACKAGE MAINTAINS CHC POPS /HIGHER VALUES WHERE MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT/ FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE UNKNOWN ATTM.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONCE A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DVLPS OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS THE
UPPER AIR PATTN OVER MO/IL FROM RIDGING TO SW FLOW. GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR HOW THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS
THEREFORE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE RECOMMENDED CR INITIALIZATION FOR
TUE AND BEYOND.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE HIGH END MVFR CIGS THAT
BLANKET AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MIXING THAT SHOULD CAUSE CEILING HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO LOW END
MVFR NO LATER THAN MID AFTERNOON. THIS TREND TOWARDS THE CLOUD
DECK BECOMING MORE CUMULIFORM SHOULD ALSO MEAN A GRADUAL CLEARING
TREND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING
EBBS AND AS CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE DECREASES WITH THE SWD
PUSH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. ONCE CLEARING OCCURS...EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NE/E WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...CIGS OVER KSTL SHOULD INCREASE TO 3-4KFT BY
MID AFTERNOON WITH N WINDS 10-15KTS. THIS VFR CLOUD DECK SHOULD
ERODE DURING THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS 4-8KTS.
TRUETT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 231953
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO
THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THOSE AREAS.
AT THIS TIME FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 8OS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM MCS OVER OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
000
FXUS63 KEAX 231743
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT Thu May 23 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Increased cloud coverage for most of the afternoon based on latest
satellite trends, 12z Bufr soundings and 925mb/850mb condensation
pressure deficit progs. Lowered temperatures as a result. Should see
gradual clearing from the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Light rain showers/sprinkles have been moving south through Iowa
early this morning around the upper-low moving across the Upper
Mississippi valley. There is a chance that these could last into
northern and northeastern Missouri this morning, so have added a
mention of sprinkles. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected with
thicker stratocu persisting through much of the day across northern
and northeastern Missouri. This area will see highs in the mid 60s as
cloud cover and continued cool northerly/northeasterly winds keep
temperatures seasonally cool. Southern and western portions of the
forecast area will see temperatures in the lower 70s as cloud cover
will be less persistent there.
Friday should be a bit warmer across the area but temperatures are
still expected to be in the lower 70s. The next decent chance for
rain will come late Friday night and into Saturday. A strong
low-level jet is expected to develop over the Plains, focusing on
western to central Nebraska and Kansas. This will likely trigger
storms across the region and as the low-level jet veers and shifts
east, the focus and stronger, moist isentropic ascent will as well.
This may bring whatever forms in the Plains into mainly northern
Missouri late in the night. We will also be seeing more broad
isentropic lift through the area earlier in the night, so cannot
rule some isolated showers or storms out earlier. But the best
chances will be later when better moisture and ascent arrive.
Mid-level flow will become more persistently from the south to
southwest allowing continued moisture advection into the region.
This will result in at least a chance for thunderstorms through the
day and into the overnight. While it doesn`t look like the start of
the Memorial Day weekend will be a washout with thunderstorms
everywhere, the chances will be there throughout the day for
scattered showers and storms unfortunately. The threat for severe
weather looks low at this through Saturday night as shear and
instability will be rather limited.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central U.S. for
much of next week. Despite this ridge, all medium range guidance
continues to produce multiple rounds of convection across the Plains
into the Upper Midwest through most of the extended period as the
upper trough to the west sends continuous weak impulses into the
region. Airmass in place will be somewhat unstable, so several
rounds of thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, but the
presence of weak capping aloft and the lack of any well-defined
forcing mechanism suggest these model PoPs are probably overdone.
While it is unlikely we will see thunderstorms every day next week
like the models suggest, its not yet possible to pinpoint when/where
the highest chances will be. Therefore kept low-end chance PoPs for
much of the extended period but tried to trend drier by Wednesday as
upper level heights begin to rise overhead. Wind fields will be weak
so significant severe weather seems unlikely at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Extensive area of MVFR ceilings from northeast/east central KS across
northern half of MO will gradually lift to VFR with afternoon mixing
as well as gradually clear from the north. However, broken VFR
ceilings could linger into the early evening hours before scattering
out. None of the short range models have a good handle on this cloud
cover although the 12z NAM comes closest.
Winds will gradually veer from the north to southeast during this
forecast period. Warm air advection aloft will spread an altocu deck
eastward tomorrow.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
000
FXUS63 KLSX 231725
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HAVE HIT THE CLOUDS A BIT HARDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MADE A
CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TWEEK IN TEMPS DUE TO THE SEASONABLY CHILLY
AIRMASS AND LACK OF SUNSHINE. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL...WITH SOME OF THIS EXTENDING WWD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS NOW SHOWING UP ON
KLSX 88D. SO...HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TRUETT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WHILE SOME PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOCUS WILL BE TEMPS.
UPPER TROF FINALLY ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TODAY...THEN SOME DRY WEATHER...UNTIL
TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT ISOD SHRA TODAY MAINLY FOR THE NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DOUBTFUL THESE SHRA WILL LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN IA/NRN IL...BUT BECOME MORE
CELLULAR WITH SOME HEATING TODAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER FOR TODAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AND COOLER STILL FOR TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A THREAT
OF TSRA. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM 00Z MDLS YESTERDAY. MDLS ARE
STILL IN TWO CAMPS...ONE WITH THE MCS TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA
WHILE THE OTHER KEEPS THE MCS/S TRAVELING THRU THE CWA. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WET SOLN FOR THE CWA WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE DRY
TIME.
THE MCS TRACKS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AS WELL AS WHERE/WHEN THE FIRST CLUSTER DEVELOPS AS WELL AS
OTHER MESOSCALE PROCESSES. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS/TIMES WHERE MDLS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING TSRA.
DUE TO PRECIP QUESTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE TRENDED TWD A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN FOR TEMPS WITH GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPS
THRU NEXT WEEK.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE HIGH END MVFR CIGS THAT
BLANKET AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MIXING THAT SHOULD CAUSE CEILING HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO LOW END
MVFR NO LATER THAN MID AFTERNOON. THIS TREND TOWARDS THE CLOUD
DECK BECOMIMG MORE CUMULIFORM SHOULD ALSO MEAN A GRADUAL CLEARING
TREND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HEATING
EBBS AND AS CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CURVATURE DECREASES WITH THE SWD
PUSH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. ONCE CLEARING OCCURS...EXPECITING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NE/E WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...CIGS OVER KSTL SHOULD INCREASE TO 3-4KFT BY
MID AFTERNOON WITH N WINDS 10-15KTS. THIS VFR CLOUD DECK SHOULD
ERODE DURING THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS 4-8KTS.
TRUETT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 231716
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 PM CDT Thu May 23 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Increased cloud coverage for most of the afternoon based on latest
satellite trends, 12z Bufr soundings and 925mb/850mb condensation
pressure deficit progs. Lowered temperatures as a result. Should see
gradual clearing from the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Light rain showers/sprinkles have been moving south through Iowa
early this morning around the upper-low moving across the Upper
Mississippi valley. There is a chance that these could last into
northern and northeastern Missouri this morning, so have added a
mention of sprinkles. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected with
thicker stratocu persisting through much of the day across northern
and northeastern Missouri. This area will see highs in the mid 60s as
cloud cover and continued cool northerly/northeasterly winds keep
temperatures seasonally cool. Southern and western portions of the
forecast area will see temperatures in the lower 70s as cloud cover
will be less persistent there.
Friday should be a bit warmer across the area but temperatures are
still expected to be in the lower 70s. The next decent chance for
rain will come late Friday night and into Saturday. A strong
low-level jet is expected to develop over the Plains, focusing on
western to central Nebraska and Kansas. This will likely trigger
storms across the region and as the low-level jet veers and shifts
east, the focus and stronger, moist isentropic ascent will as well.
This may bring whatever forms in the Plains into mainly northern
Missouri late in the night. We will also be seeing more broad
isentropic lift through the area earlier in the night, so cannot
rule some isolated showers or storms out earlier. But the best
chances will be later when better moisture and ascent arrive.
Mid-level flow will become more persistently from the south to
southwest allowing continued moisture advection into the region.
This will result in at least a chance for thunderstorms through the
day and into the overnight. While it doesn`t look like the start of
the Memorial Day weekend will be a washout with thunderstorms
everywhere, the chances will be there throughout the day for
scattered showers and storms unfortunately. The threat for severe
weather looks low at this through Saturday night as shear and
instability will be rather limited.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central U.S. for
much of next week. Despite this ridge, all medium range guidance
continues to produce multiple rounds of convection across the Plains
into the Upper Midwest through most of the extended period as the
upper trough to the west sends continuous weak impulses into the
region. Airmass in place will be somewhat unstable, so several
rounds of thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, but the
presence of weak capping aloft and the lack of any well-defined
forcing mechanism suggest these model PoPs are probably overdone.
While it is unlikely we will see thunderstorms every day next week
like the models suggest, its not yet possible to pinpoint when/where
the highest chances will be. Therefore kept low-end chance PoPs for
much of the extended period but tried to trend drier by Wednesday as
upper level heights begin to rise overhead. Wind fields will be weak
so significant severe weather seems unlikely at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MVFR ceilings are expected through early this afternoon. And based on
upstream observations and model guidance, there will likely be
several hours of fuel-alternate MVFR cigs from late this morning
through early afternoon. Winds will shift from the northwest to the
northeast through the day but should generally be light. Ceilings are
expected to break up and scatter out by late this afternoon. Once
this occurs skies should remain clear to mostly clear through the night.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...CDB
000
FXUS63 KSGF 231712
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE REALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CORN BELT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO THE
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FROM ROLLA DOWN TO
WEST PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
IT THEN APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MCS ACTIVITY
FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THROW OUT AN ANCHOR FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN 500 MB AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THIS RIDGE. A LOOK AT
LOW LEVEL THETA-E CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CORN BELT REGION...SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI. FINALLY...WIND FIELDS SUPPORT CORFIDI
VECTORS ORIENTATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 30
TO 50 POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. JUST EXPECT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BOTH HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE ON AREA
LAKES...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LONG STRETCHES OF LAKE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH MAY EASILY GET INTO THE WHITECAP RANGE.
LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE THAT WE WILL GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY. IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR ANY EMERGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IF ANY SUCH
ENERGY CAN PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM MCS OVER OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...HOWEVER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
000
FXUS63 KLSX 231656
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HAVE HIT THE CLOUDS A BIT HARDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MADE A
CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TWEEK IN TEMPS DUE TO THE SEASONABLY CHILLY
AIRMASS AND LACK OF SUNSHINE. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL...WITH SOME OF THIS EXTENDING WWD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS NOW SHOWING UP ON
KLSX 88D. SO...HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TRUETT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WHILE SOME PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOCUS WILL BE TEMPS.
UPPER TROF FINALLY ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TODAY...THEN SOME DRY WEATHER...UNTIL
TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT ISOD SHRA TODAY MAINLY FOR THE NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DOUBTFUL THESE SHRA WILL LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN IA/NRN IL...BUT BECOME MORE
CELLULAR WITH SOME HEATING TODAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER FOR TODAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AND COOLER STILL FOR TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A THREAT
OF TSRA. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM 00Z MDLS YESTERDAY. MDLS ARE
STILL IN TWO CAMPS...ONE WITH THE MCS TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA
WHILE THE OTHER KEEPS THE MCS/S TRAVELING THRU THE CWA. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WET SOLN FOR THE CWA WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE DRY
TIME.
THE MCS TRACKS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AS WELL AS WHERE/WHEN THE FIRST CLUSTER DEVELOPS AS WELL AS
OTHER MESOSCALE PROCESSES. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS/TIMES WHERE MDLS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING TSRA.
DUE TO PRECIP QUESTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE TRENDED TWD A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN FOR TEMPS WITH GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPS
THRU NEXT WEEK.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
AREA OF CEILINGS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH. CLOUDS TO CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASING.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND TO BECOME NORTH TODAY...THEN
NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
CVKING
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SAINT LOUIS 67 46 70 52 / 20 0 0 20
QUINCY 64 42 68 51 / 20 0 0 50
COLUMBIA 66 44 70 53 / 10 0 0 30
JEFFERSON CITY 67 44 71 52 / 10 0 0 30
SALEM 68 43 68 47 / 20 0 0 10
FARMINGTON 69 44 71 48 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 231147
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
647 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WHILE SOME PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOCUS WILL BE TEMPS.
UPPER TROF FINALLY ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TODAY...THEN SOME DRY WEATHER...UNTIL
TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT ISOD SHRA TODAY MAINLY FOR THE NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DOUBTFUL THESE SHRA WILL LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN IA/NRN IL...BUT BECOME MORE
CELLULAR WITH SOME HEATING TODAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER FOR TODAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AND COOLER STILL FOR TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A THREAT
OF TSRA. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM 00Z MDLS YESTERDAY. MDLS ARE
STILL IN TWO CAMPS...ONE WITH THE MCS TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA
WHILE THE OTHER KEEPS THE MCS/S TRAVELING THRU THE CWA. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WET SOLN FOR THE CWA WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE DRY
TIME.
THE MCS TRACKS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AS WELL AS WHERE/WHEN THE FIRST CLUSTER DEVELOPS AS WELL AS
OTHER MESOSCALE PROCESSES. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS/TIMES WHERE MDLS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING TSRA.
DUE TO PRECIP QUESTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE TRENDED TWD A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN FOR TEMPS WITH GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPS
THRU NEXT WEEK.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
AREA OF CEILINGS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH. CLOUDS TO CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASING.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND TO BECOME NORTH TODAY...THEN
NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
CVKING
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SAINT LOUIS 67 46 71 52 / 20 0 0 20
QUINCY 62 42 68 51 / 20 0 0 50
COLUMBIA 66 44 70 53 / 10 0 0 30
JEFFERSON CITY 68 44 71 52 / 10 0 0 30
SALEM 66 43 69 48 / 20 0 0 10
FARMINGTON 70 44 70 48 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 231057
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
557 AM CDT Thu May 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Light rain showers/sprinkles have been moving south through Iowa
early this morning around the upper-low moving across the Upper
Mississippi valley. There is a chance that these could last into
northern and northeastern Missouri this morning, so have added a
mention of sprinkles. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected with
thicker stratocu persisting through much of the day across northern
and northeastern Missouri. This area will see highs in the mid 60s as
cloud cover and continued cool northerly/northeasterly winds keep
temperatures seasonally cool. Southern and western portions of the
forecast area will see temperatures in the lower 70s as cloud cover
will be less persistent there.
Friday should be a bit warmer across the area but temperatures are
still expected to be in the lower 70s. The next decent chance for
rain will come late Friday night and into Saturday. A strong
low-level jet is expected to develop over the Plains, focusing on
western to central Nebraska and Kansas. This will likely trigger
storms across the region and as the low-level jet veers and shifts
east, the focus and stronger, moist isentropic ascent will as well.
This may bring whatever forms in the Plains into mainly northern
Missouri late in the night. We will also be seeing more broad
isentropic lift through the area earlier in the night, so cannot
rule some isolated showers or storms out earlier. But the best
chances will be later when better moisture and ascent arrive.
Mid-level flow will become more persistently from the south to
southwest allowing continued moisture advection into the region.
This will result in at least a chance for thunderstorms through the
day and into the overnight. While it doesn`t look like the start of
the Memorial Day weekend will be a washout with thunderstorms
everywhere, the chances will be there throughout the day for
scattered showers and storms unfortunately. The threat for severe
weather looks low at this through Saturday night as shear and
instability will be rather limited.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central U.S. for
much of next week. Despite this ridge, all medium range guidance
continues to produce multiple rounds of convection across the Plains
into the Upper Midwest through most of the extended period as the
upper trough to the west sends continuous weak impulses into the
region. Airmass in place will be somewhat unstable, so several
rounds of thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, but the
presence of weak capping aloft and the lack of any well-defined
forcing mechanism suggest these model PoPs are probably overdone.
While it is unlikely we will see thunderstorms every day next week
like the models suggest, its not yet possible to pinpoint when/where
the highest chances will be. Therefore kept low-end chance PoPs for
much of the extended period but tried to trend drier by Wednesday as
upper level heights begin to rise overhead. Wind fields will be weak
so significant severe weather seems unlikely at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MVFR ceilings are expected through early this afternoon. And based on
upstream observations and model guidance, there will likely be
several hours of fuel-alternate MVFR cigs from late this morning
through early afternoon. Winds will shift from the northwest to the
northeast through the day but should generally be light. Ceilings are
expected to break up and scatter out by late this afternoon. Once
this occurs skies should remain clear to mostly clear through the night.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...CDB
000
FXUS63 KSGF 231052
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE REALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CORN BELT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO THE
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FROM ROLLA DOWN TO
WEST PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
IT THEN APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MCS ACTIVITY
FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THROW OUT AN ANCHOR FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN 500 MB AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THIS RIDGE. A LOOK AT
LOW LEVEL THETA-E CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CORN BELT REGION...SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI. FINALLY...WIND FIELDS SUPPORT CORFIDI
VECTORS ORIENTATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 30
TO 50 POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. JUST EXPECT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BOTH HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE ON AREA
LAKES...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LONG STRETCHES OF LAKE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH MAY EASILY GET INTO THE WHITECAP RANGE.
LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE THAT WE WILL GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY. IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR ANY EMERGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IF ANY SUCH
ENERGY CAN PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH JUST
SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KT.
AFTER 07Z TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE JLN TERMINAL AREA. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATED A INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS TSRA POTENTIAL ATTM IS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION IN THE TAF. IF
CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL IN TSRA INCREASES...LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE THIS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...BOXELL
000
FXUS63 KLSX 230826
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
326 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WHILE SOME PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOCUS WILL BE TEMPS.
UPPER TROF FINALLY ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TODAY...THEN SOME DRY WEATHER...UNTIL
TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT ISOD SHRA TODAY MAINLY FOR THE NRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DOUBTFUL THESE SHRA WILL LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN IA/NRN IL...BUT BECOME MORE
CELLULAR WITH SOME HEATING TODAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER FOR TODAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AND COOLER STILL FOR TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A THREAT
OF TSRA. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM 00Z MDLS YESTERDAY. MDLS ARE
STILL IN TWO CAMPS...ONE WITH THE MCS TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA
WHILE THE OTHER KEEPS THE MCS/S TRAVELING THRU THE CWA. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WET SOLN FOR THE CWA WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE DRY
TIME.
THE MCS TRACKS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AS WELL AS WHERE/WHEN THE FIRST CLUSTER DEVELOPS AS WELL AS
OTHER MESOSCALE PROCESSES. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS/TIMES WHERE MDLS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING TSRA.
DUE TO PRECIP QUESTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE TRENDED TWD A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN FOR TEMPS WITH GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPS
THRU NEXT WEEK.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH...REACHING KUIN
12-14Z AND KCOU AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAFS 15-18Z. MVFR CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH...AND HAVE
GONE WITH 1500FT CEILINGS AT KUIN AND 2000FT AT KCOU AND THE ST.
LOUIS METRO TAFS. THERE ARE SOME IFR CEILING IN IOWA...SO COULDN`T
RULE OUT THESE LOWER CEILINGS...PARTICULARLY AT KUIN. ISOLATED
-SHRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KUIN...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH THERE. WEST WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
TROUGH...AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EXPECT TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AROUND 18Z CAUSING WINDS TO VEER FROM THE NORTH. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE 2000-3000FT RANGE BY MID-MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY.
BRITT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SAINT LOUIS 67 46 71 52 / 20 0 0 20
QUINCY 62 42 68 51 / 20 0 0 50
COLUMBIA 66 44 70 53 / 10 0 0 30
JEFFERSON CITY 68 44 71 52 / 10 0 0 30
SALEM 66 43 69 48 / 20 0 0 10
FARMINGTON 69 44 70 48 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 230826
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 AM CDT Thu May 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Light rain showers/sprinkles have been moving south through Iowa
early this morning around the upper-low moving across the Upper
Mississippi valley. There is a chance that these could last into
northern and northeastern Missouri this morning, so have added a
mention of sprinkles. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected with
thicker stratocu persisting through much of the day across northern
and northeastern Missouri. This area will see highs in the mid 60s as
cloud cover and continued cool northerly/northeasterly winds keep
temperatures seasonally cool. Southern and western portions of the
forecast area will see temperatures in the lower 70s as cloud cover
will be less persistent there.
Friday should be a bit warmer across the area but temperatures are
still expected to be in the lower 70s. The next decent chance for
rain will come late Friday night and into Saturday. A strong
low-level jet is expected to develop over the Plains, focusing on
wester to central Nebraska and Kansas. This will likely trigger
storms across the region and as the low-level jet veers and shifts
east, the focus and stronger, moist isentropic ascent will as well.
This may bring whatever forms in the Plains into mainly northern
Missouri late in the night. We will also be seeing more broad
isentropic lift through the area earlier in the night, so cannot
rule some isolated showers or storms out earlier. But the best
chances will be later when better moisture and ascent arrive.
Mid-level flow will become more persistently from the south to
southwest allowing continued moisture advection into the region.
This will result in at least a chance for thunderstorms through the
day and into the overnight. While it doesn`t look like the start of
the Memorial Day weekend will be a washout with thunderstorms
everywhere, the chances will be there throughout the day for
scattered showers and storms unfortunately. The threat for severe
weather looks low at this through Saturday night as shear and
instability will be rather limited.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central U.S. for
much of next week. Despite this ridge, all medium range guidance
continues to produce multiple rounds of convection across the Plains
into the Upper Midwest through most of the extended period as the
upper trough to the west sends continuous weak impulses into the
region. Airmass in place will be somewhat unstable, so several
rounds of thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, but the
presence of weak capping aloft and the lack of any well-defined
forcing mechanism suggest these model PoPs are probably overdone.
While it is unlikely we will see thunderstorms every day next week
like the models suggest, its not yet possible to pinpoint when/where
the highest chances will be. Therefore kept low-end chance PoPs for
much of the extended period but tried to trend drier by Wednesday as
upper level heights begin to rise overhead. Wind fields will be weak
so significant severe weather seems unlikely at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
Forecast remains on track with broken stratus across terminals. Still
anticipate arrival of MVFR ceilings between 09-12Z at TAF sites, with
a return back to VFR conditions around midday. Surface winds will
veer with time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Blair
000
FXUS63 KSGF 230754
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE REALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CORN BELT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO THE
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FROM ROLLA DOWN TO
WEST PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
IT THEN APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MCS ACTIVITY
FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THROW OUT AN ANCHOR FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN 500 MB AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THIS RIDGE. A LOOK AT
LOW LEVEL THETA-E CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CORN BELT REGION...SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI. FINALLY...WIND FIELDS SUPPORT CORFIDI
VECTORS ORIENTATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 30
TO 50 POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. JUST EXPECT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BOTH HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE ON AREA
LAKES...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LONG STRETCHES OF LAKE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH MAY EASILY GET INTO THE WHITECAP RANGE.
LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE THAT WE WILL GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY. IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR ANY EMERGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IF ANY SUCH
ENERGY CAN PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT
MORE SO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT THEN RESUME FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXUS63 KSGF 230529
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR JUST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG IN SPOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRY TO RIDE UNDER THE RIDGE AND MAY BRING
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT
MORE SO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT THEN RESUME FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXUS63 KEAX 230454
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
The forecast area will remain under the influence of a seasonably
cool and dry cyclonic flow around a nearly vertically stacked low
pressure system now over eastern IA. A secondary cold front with
another surge of cooler air is expected to drop south across NE and
IA later this evening and through the CWA overnight. Considerable
cold air stratocu will begin to scatter out across the southwestern
CWA this evening but much slower over the rest of the region. The
far northern counties will likely remain under a blanket of clouds
through the night.
The stratocu will likely hang around over the CWA for most of the
morning before finally scattering out. Temperatures through h8 will
be similar to today but should have the benefit of afternoon
sunshine to support warmer readings than today. Favored the slightly
cooler MAV MOS guidance due to the north to northeast surface
winds.
A surface high building south through the Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday will maintain a pool of cool air that will be drawn
westward on Friday. This will keep temperatures below average for a
third day. An amplifying upper level ridge will press eastward
through the Plains on Friday which will allow warm air advection
aloft to spread increasing mid and high level cloud cover towards
MO. However, the easterly boundary layer winds will maintain a cool
and dry fetch such that not overly impressed on rain chances through
Friday. Best one could hope for are sprinkles or a brief afternoon
shower over northwest MO.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
The forecast for Friday night and on through the holiday weekend
into next week remains relatively unchanged with a prolonged period
of unsettled weather.
By Friday evening models advertise a shortwave ridge having migrated
into the Plains, where it will linger through the weekend into next
week as it remains stuck between troughs anchored across either
coast. Thoughts are this blocking pattern will hold steady as
advertised, thus allowing temperatures to rebound slowly into early next
week. This will keep temperatures around normal through the weekend,
slowly lifting them into the 80s early next week.
Major issue for the holiday weekend will be the potential
for storms. Shortwave ridge, as mentioned earlier, will be a
persistent feature over the region. Shortwave troughs moving
through, or ejecting from, the larger synoptic west coast trough will
spend the next several days riding up and over the ridge. These small
perturbations will have the potential to bring repeated rounds of
rain as they are swept over the ridge. At this time, confidence is
highest that stormy activity will occur Saturday as the first of many
ejecting troughs sweep through the region. Therefore, have kept the
focus for likely POPs on Saturday. Confidence generally drops off in
the later periods though this is mostly due to the uncertainties of
antecedent convection; depending on whether a boundary has been left
across the region and/or where available moisture will be. However,
with the ridge not moving much, and a endless parade of shortwave
troughs looking to exit the west coast over a Plains States ridge,
thoughts are storms will be possible throughout the later periods.
Have left the latter half of the forecast broad brushed with chance
POPs as a result.
Otherwise, the potential for severe weather continues to look very
low owing to a mismatch between shear and instability in these outer
periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
Forecast remains on track with broken stratus across terminals. Still
anticipate arrival of MVFR ceilings between 09-12Z at TAF sites, with
a return back to VFR conditions around midday. Surface winds will
veer with time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ/Cutter
AVIATION...Blair
000
FXUS63 KLSX 230441
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1141 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY LIGHT CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS NERN
MO AND W CNTRL IL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER ERN NEBRASKA DROPS SEWD THROUGH NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL LATE
TGT. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A SFC LOW NEAR ORD SW THROUGH SAR AND FAM SHOULD REMAIN E-SE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
ACROSS SERN MO AND SWRN IL WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SEWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF TGT...BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TGT COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS NGT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY DUE TO
WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LOWERING SFC DEW
POINTS. THE 00Z THU NAM MODEL RUN DROPS THE 8 DEGREE C 850 MB
ISOTHERM SEWD INTO SERN MO AND SRN IL BY 12Z THU.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
A FEW SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD...AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH A
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE LARGE LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL ACT TO KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...THUS HAVE NOT GONE TOO
FAR BELOW GUIDANCE ON TONIGHT`S LOWS...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE INDICATED SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PHILLIPSON
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VORT MAXES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE VORT MAXES
ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE TEMPORALLY OUT OF SYNC WITH DIURNAL HEATING
WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT PCPN COVERAGE. SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST TOMORROW WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A STRONG SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS INTO
THE MIDWEST AND BRINGS COOLER AIR TO MO/IL...EFFECTIVELY PUSHING A
FNTL BDRY IN SRN MO/NRN AR SWD AS A CDFNT. THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS OUT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL ON FRI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL ELY SFC FLOW.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE LLJ MAY CLIP THE NWRN CWA ON
LATE FRI NIGHT.
SAT THROUGH TUE...SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SLY ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH ONCE IT SHIFTS FARTHER EWD. A
DVLPG LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL REORIENT A BAROCLINIC ZONE SUCH THAT
IT STRETCHES THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN MO AS A WMFNT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS BDRY LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MO WITH THE
TEMPERATURE INCREASE AIDED BY THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW ILL-DEFINED VORT MAXES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SUPPORT SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL MCS DVLPMT MAY ALSO
AFFECT OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...EITHER AS DECAYING REMNANTS MOVING
INTO THE CWA OR BY GENERATING AN MCV WHICH FOCUSES TSRA DVLPMT
DURING THE FOLLOWING AFTN. POP12 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS AROUND 30 PERCENT AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF
WELL-DEFINED FEATURES TO FOCUS PCPN DVLPMT AND THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EFFECTS OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. THE UPPER AIR
PATTN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT FM RIDGING
TO SW FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AFTER A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE SWRN CONUS.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH...REACHING KUIN
12-14Z AND KCOU AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAFS 15-18Z. MVFR CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH...AND HAVE
GONE WITH 1500FT CEILINGS AT KUIN AND 2000FT AT KCOU AND THE ST.
LOUIS METRO TAFS. THERE ARE SOME IFR CEILING IN IOWA...SO COULDN`T
RULE OUT THESE LOWER CEILINGS...PARTICULARLY AT KUIN. ISOLATED
-SHRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KUIN...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH THERE. WEST WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
TROUGH...AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EXPECT TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AROUND 18Z CAUSING WINDS TO VEER FROM THE NORTH. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE 2000-3000FT RANGE BY MID-MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 230222
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
922 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY LIGHT CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS NERN
MO AND W CNTRL IL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER ERN NEBRASKA DROPS SEWD THROUGH NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL LATE
TGT. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A SFC LOW NEAR ORD SW THROUGH SAR AND FAM SHOULD REMAIN E-SE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
ACROSS SERN MO AND SWRN IL WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SEWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF TGT...BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TGT COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS NGT...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY DUE TO
WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LOWERING SFC DEW
POINTS. THE 00Z THU NAM MODEL RUN DROPS THE 8 DEGREE C 850 MB
ISOTHERM SEWD INTO SERN MO AND SRN IL BY 12Z THU.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
A FEW SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD...AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH A
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE LARGE LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL ACT TO KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...THUS HAVE NOT GONE TOO
FAR BELOW GUIDANCE ON TONIGHT`S LOWS...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE INDICATED SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PHILLIPSON
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VORT MAXES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE VORT MAXES
ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE TEMPORALLY OUT OF SYNC WITH DIURNAL HEATING
WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT PCPN COVERAGE. SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST TOMORROW WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A STRONG SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS INTO
THE MIDWEST AND BRINGS COOLER AIR TO MO/IL...EFFECTIVELY PUSHING A
FNTL BDRY IN SRN MO/NRN AR SWD AS A CDFNT. THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS OUT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL ON FRI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL ELY SFC FLOW.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE LLJ MAY CLIP THE NWRN CWA ON
LATE FRI NIGHT.
SAT THROUGH TUE...SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SLY ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH ONCE IT SHIFTS FARTHER EWD. A
DVLPG LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL REORIENT A BAROCLINIC ZONE SUCH THAT
IT STRETCHES THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN MO AS A WMFNT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS BDRY LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MO WITH THE
TEMPERATURE INCREASE AIDED BY THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW ILL-DEFINED VORT MAXES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SUPPORT SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL MCS DVLPMT MAY ALSO
AFFECT OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...EITHER AS DECAYING REMNANTS MOVING
INTO THE CWA OR BY GENERATING AN MCV WHICH FOCUSES TSRA DVLPMT
DURING THE FOLLOWING AFTN. POP12 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS AROUND 30 PERCENT AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF
WELL-DEFINED FEATURES TO FOCUS PCPN DVLPMT AND THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EFFECTS OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. THE UPPER AIR
PATTN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT FM RIDGING
TO SW FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AFTER A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE SWRN CONUS.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CEILINGS
BETWEEN 2000-3000FT CURRENTLY OVER IOWA MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT KUIN. ELSEWHERE CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL VEER FROM
WEST TO NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BEFORE 18Z.
CEILINGS WITH BE BETWEEN 2000-3000FT MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY THURSDAY EVENING.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 222330
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR JUST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG IN SPOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRY TO RIDE UNDER THE RIDGE AND MAY BRING
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET BUT DEVELOP AGAIN
THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT THEN RESUME FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOSTER
000
FXUS63 KEAX 222309
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 PM CDT Wed May 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
The forecast area will remain under the influence of a seasonably
cool and dry cyclonic flow around a nearly vertically stacked low
pressure system now over eastern IA. A secondary cold front with
another surge of cooler air is expected to drop south across NE and
IA later this evening and through the CWA overnight. Considerable
cold air stratocu will begin to scatter out across the southwestern
CWA this evening but much slower over the rest of the region. The
far northern counties will likely remain under a blanket of clouds
through the night.
The stratocu will likely hang around over the CWA for most of the
morning before finally scattering out. Temperatures through h8 will
be similar to today but should have the benefit of afternoon
sunshine to support warmer readings than today. Favored the slightly
cooler MAV MOS guidance due to the north to northeast surface
winds.
A surface high building south through the Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday will maintain a pool of cool air that will be drawn
westward on Friday. This will keep temperatures below average for a
third day. An amplifying upper level ridge will press eastward
through the Plains on Friday which will allow warm air advection
aloft to spread increasing mid and high level cloud cover towards
MO. However, the easterly boundary layer winds will maintain a cool
and dry fetch such that not overly impressed on rain chances through
Friday. Best one could hope for are sprinkles or a brief afternoon
shower over northwest MO.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
The forecast for Friday night and on through the holiday weekend
into next week remains relatively unchanged with a prolonged period
of unsettled weather.
By Friday evening models advertise a shortwave ridge having migrated
into the Plains, where it will linger through the weekend into next
week as it remains stuck between troughs anchored across either
coast. Thoughts are this blocking pattern will hold steady as
advertised, thus allowing temperatures to rebound slowly into early next
week. This will keep temperatures around normal through the weekend,
slowly lifting them into the 80s early next week.
Major issue for the holiday weekend will be the potential
for storms. Shortwave ridge, as mentioned earlier, will be a
persistent feature over the region. Shortwave troughs moving
through, or ejecting from, the larger synoptic west coast trough will
spend the next several days riding up and over the ridge. These small
perturbations will have the potential to bring repeated rounds of
rain as they are swept over the ridge. At this time, confidence is
highest that stormy activity will occur Saturday as the first of many
ejecting troughs sweep through the region. Therefore, have kept the
focus for likely POPs on Saturday. Confidence generally drops off in
the later periods though this is mostly due to the uncertainties of
antecedent convection; depending on whether a boundary has been left
across the region and/or where available moisture will be. However,
with the ridge not moving much, and a endless parade of shortwave
troughs looking to exit the west coast over a Plains States ridge,
thoughts are storms will be possible throughout the later periods.
Have left the latter half of the forecast broad brushed with chance
POPs as a result.
Otherwise, the potential for severe weather continues to look very
low owing to a mismatch between shear and instability in these outer
periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
Similar scenario as the past 24 hours with regards to ceilings
expected for the TAF period. Current VFR conditions should be
replaced by lower ceilings prior to sunrise. Gradual improvement
anticipated by midday Thursday. Surface winds will gradually veer
with time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ/Cutter
AVIATION...Blair
000
FXUS63 KLSX 222246
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
546 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
A FEW SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD...AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH A
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE LARGE LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL ACT TO KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...THUS HAVE NOT GONE TOO
FAR BELOW GUIDANCE ON TONIGHT`S LOWS...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE INDICATED SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PHILLIPSON
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VORT MAXES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE VORT MAXES
ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE TEMPORALLY OUT OF SYNC WITH DIURNAL HEATING
WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT PCPN COVERAGE. SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST TOMORROW WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A STRONG SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS INTO
THE MIDWEST AND BRINGS COOLER AIR TO MO/IL...EFFECTIVELY PUSHING A
FNTL BDRY IN SRN MO/NRN AR SWD AS A CDFNT. THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS OUT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL ON FRI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL ELY SFC FLOW.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE LLJ MAY CLIP THE NWRN CWA ON
LATE FRI NIGHT.
SAT THROUGH TUE...SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SLY ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH ONCE IT SHIFTS FARTHER EWD. A
DVLPG LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL REORIENT A BAROCLINIC ZONE SUCH THAT
IT STRETCHES THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN MO AS A WMFNT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS BDRY LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MO WITH THE
TEMPERATURE INCREASE AIDED BY THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW ILL-DEFINED VORT MAXES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SUPPORT SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL MCS DVLPMT MAY ALSO
AFFECT OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...EITHER AS DECAYING REMNANTS MOVING
INTO THE CWA OR BY GENERATING AN MCV WHICH FOCUSES TSRA DVLPMT
DURING THE FOLLOWING AFTN. POP12 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS AROUND 30 PERCENT AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF
WELL-DEFINED FEATURES TO FOCUS PCPN DVLPMT AND THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EFFECTS OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. THE UPPER AIR
PATTN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT FM RIDGING
TO SW FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AFTER A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE SWRN CONUS.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CEILINGS
BETWEEN 2000-3000FT CURRENTLY OVER IOWA MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT KUIN. ELSEWHERE CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL VEER FROM
WEST TO NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BEFORE 18Z.
CEILINGS WITH BE BETWEEN 2000-3000FT MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR BY THURSDAY EVENING.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 222112
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 PM CDT Wed May 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
The forecast area will remain under the influence of a seasonably
cool and dry cyclonic flow around a nearly vertically stacked low
pressure system now over eastern IA. A secondary cold front with
another surge of cooler air is expected to drop south across NE and
IA later this evening and through the CWA overnight. Considerable
cold air stratocu will begin to scatter out across the southwestern
CWA this evening but much slower over the rest of the region. The
far northern counties will likely remain under a blanket of clouds
through the night.
The stratocu will likely hang around over the CWA for most of the
morning before finally scattering out. Temperatures through h8 will
be similar to today but should have the benefit of afternoon
sunshine to support warmer readings than today. Favored the slightly
cooler MAV MOS guidance due to the north to northeast surface
winds.
A surface high building south through the Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday will maintain a pool of cool air that will be drawn
westward on Friday. This will keep temperatures below average for a
third day. An amplifying upper level ridge will press eastward
through the Plains on Friday which will allow warm air advection
aloft to spread increasing mid and high level cloud cover towards
MO. However, the easterly boundary layer winds will maintain a cool
and dry fetch such that not overly impressed on rain chances through
Friday. Best one could hope for are sprinkles or a brief afternoon
shower over northwest MO.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
The forecast for Friday night and on through the holiday weekend
into next week remains relatively unchanged with a prolonged period
of unsettled weather.
By Friday evening models advertise a shortwave ridge having migrated
into the Plains, where it will linger through the weekend into next
week as it remains stuck between troughs anchored across either
coast. Thoughts are this blocking pattern will hold steady as
advertised, thus allowing temperatures to rebound slowly into early next
week. This will keep temperatures around normal through the weekend,
slowly lifting them into the 80s early next week.
Major issue for the holiday weekend will be the potential
for storms. Shortwave ridge, as mentioned earlier, will be a
persistent feature over the region. Shortwave troughs moving
through, or ejecting from, the larger synoptic west coast trough will
spend the next several days riding up and over the ridge. These small
perturbations will have the potential to bring repeated rounds of
rain as they are swept over the ridge. At this time, confidence is
highest that stormy activity will occur Saturday as the first of many
ejecting troughs sweep through the region. Therefore, have kept the
focus for likely POPs on Saturday. Confidence generally drops off in
the later periods though this is mostly due to the uncertainties of
antecedent convection; depending on whether a boundary has been left
across the region and/or where available moisture will be. However,
with the ridge not moving much, and a endless parade of shortwave
troughs looking to exit the west coast over a Plains States ridge,
thoughts are storms will be possible throughout the later periods.
Have left the latter half of the forecast broad brushed with chance
POPs as a result.
Otherwise, the potential for severe weather continues to look very
low owing to a mismatch between shear and instability in these outer
periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
Cold air advection tied to cyclonic circulation around deep low over
IA will maintain large area of MVFR cigs across northern/central MO
and northeast KS through mid afternoon. Mixing should allow cigs to
rise to low end VFR later this afternoon and continue through
tonight. Low level moisture should remain plentiful and Bufkit
soundings and condensation pressure deficit progs indicate another
southward surge of MVFR cigs out of IA/northern MO will push into the
terminals Thursday morning.
Any instability showers this afternoon should remain north of the
terminals over northern MO and dissipate a few hours after sunset.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ/Cutter
AVIATION...MJ
000
FXUS63 KLSX 222035
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
A FEW SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD...AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH A
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE LARGE LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL ACT TO KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...THUS HAVE NOT GONE TOO
FAR BELOW GUIDANCE ON TONIGHT`S LOWS...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE INDICATED SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST...MAINLY DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PHILLIPSON
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VORT MAXES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE VORT MAXES
ARE CURRENTLY FCST TO BE TEMPORALLY OUT OF SYNC WITH DIURNAL HEATING
WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT PCPN COVERAGE. SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST TOMORROW WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A STRONG SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS INTO
THE MIDWEST AND BRINGS COOLER AIR TO MO/IL...EFFECTIVELY PUSHING A
FNTL BDRY IN SRN MO/NRN AR SWD AS A CDFNT. THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS OUT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL ON FRI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL ELY SFC FLOW.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE LLJ MAY CLIP THE NWRN CWA ON
LATE FRI NIGHT.
SAT THROUGH TUE...SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SLY ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH ONCE IT SHIFTS FARTHER EWD. A
DVLPG LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL REORIENT A BAROCLINIC ZONE SUCH THAT
IT STRETCHES THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN MO AS A WMFNT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS BDRY LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MO WITH THE
TEMPERATURE INCREASE AIDED BY THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW ILL-DEFINED VORT MAXES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SUPPORT SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL MCS DVLPMT MAY ALSO
AFFECT OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...EITHER AS DECAYING REMNANTS MOVING
INTO THE CWA OR BY GENERATING AN MCV WHICH FOCUSES TSRA DVLPMT
DURING THE FOLLOWING AFTN. POP12 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS AROUND 30 PERCENT AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF
WELL-DEFINED FEATURES TO FOCUS PCPN DVLPMT AND THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EFFECTS OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY. THE UPPER AIR
PATTN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT FM RIDGING
TO SW FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AFTER A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE SWRN CONUS.
KANOFSKY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH METRO AREA TAF SITES WILL
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WHILE THUNDER CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCSH
MENTION FOR AREA TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MORNING.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KSTL...AND THOUGH
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED THE VCSH MENTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING...MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE TERMINAL...WITH SLOW
BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
JP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 221952
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR JUST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG IN SPOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRY TO RIDE UNDER THE RIDGE AND MAY BRING
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SOME STRATOCU HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND COULD SEE
SOME CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 21-22Z WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
000
FXUS63 KLSX 221753
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1253 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY.
GIVEN MDL PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...HAVE LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. TO ADD TO THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE...THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS TSRA SHUD BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN MO INTO AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATHER STRONG
S/W CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS S/W STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING IF THE
LLJ CAN RESPOND BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN US.
ANOTHER S/W CURRENTLY OVER SRN NEB IS PROGD TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW LATER TODAY. THIS S/W SHUD HELP INITIATE ISOD TO SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CDFNT. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS SE MO AND SW/S CNTL IL WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPER. ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHUD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOB COOLEST MOS ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF
THE CWA AND NEAR THE WARMEST MOS ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY. TRENDED A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT AS THE CWA WILL BE BEHIND THE CDFNT.
HOWEVER...DID NOT GO TOO MUCH COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHUD HELP KEPT
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FOCUS THRU FRIDAY WILL BE TEMPS WITH CWA MAINLY DRY UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.
MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW AVG TEMPS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
STILL...HAVE TRENDED TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS IT IS STILL LATE
MAY AND BELIEVE MUCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. MDLS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING EWD WITH AN
UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SAT. BEGINNING NEXT
WEEK...MDLS DIFFER REGARDING PLACEMENT OF FEATURES...BUT AGREE IN
THE OVERALL IDEA. A SFC FNT SHUD BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHERE THIS
FNT WILL SET UP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW EXCEPT
WHERE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR PRECIP IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
HAVE TEMPS MODERATING NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER THRU
THE WEEK.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH METRO AREA TAF SITES WILL
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WHILE THUNDER CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCSH
MENTION FOR AREA TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MORNING.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KSTL...AND THOUGH
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED THE VCSH MENTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING...MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE TERMINAL...WITH SLOW
BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
JP
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 221742
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1242 PM CDT Wed May 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
The upper-level low will pass just to the north of the forecast area
this afternoon as it tracks to the east southeast. This close
proximity may lead to a few showers across northern and northeastern
Missouri this afternoon. These should be mainly diurnally driven so
think the best chances will be during the afternoon with dissipation
around 00Z or so.
A cool and dry surface ridge will build into the region Thursday and
with the upper storm exiting to the east and shortwave ridging aloft,
we should see quiet and comfortable weather. Highs should range from
the upper 60s to the lower 70s with humidity in the 40 to 50 percent
range.
For Friday and especially Friday night, chances for precipitation
will increase. At the surface, the high pressure center will be
sliding off into the Great Lakes. This will eventually turn our
winds to the southeast but trajectories for our area will basically
be recirculating the cooler and drier air into the region. While it
looks to a bit warmer, highs should still be in the mid 70s and
humidity values of 40 to 50 percent will continue to result in
comfortable weather conditions. Have kept a mention of low PoPs
across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri for the daytime
hours. But not very confident that precipitation will make it this
far east through the day. The better chances will come over night
when broad and moist isentropic ascent will spread across the area.
Still the chances look to be less than 50 percent at this time. The
best chances for storms should be more across central Kansas and
Nebraska where the nose of the low-level jet will be focused.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
Warming temperatures and on-and-off thunderstorm chances will spread
through the weekend and the early half of next week, as ridging
gradually strengthens over the eastern Plains and a series of
shortwave troughs push through the forecast area. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated through the end of the forecast period,
due to a lack of low-level focus for convective initiation underneath
the mid-level disturbances.
The best chances for precipitation will be on Saturday afternoon and
into the evening as both the EC and GFS bring a fairly well-defined
shortwave trough through northern or central Missouri; and then
again on Sunday as trailing energy continues to push through the
region. Afterward, lower-end precipitation chances will spread
through the rest of the forecast period as a multitude of shortwave
troughs head into the region; however, the timing and placement of
these features becomes very uncertain as we move further into next
week.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be near to slightly above normal
as ridging begins to set up over the region; for Monday through
Wednesday, highs will hit a few degrees above normal in the lower
to mid 80`s. Lows will also be several degrees above normal in the
mid 60`s throughout the long-range forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
Cold air advection tied to cyclonic circulation around deep low over
IA will maintain large area of MVFR cigs across northern/central MO
and northeast KS through mid afternoon. Mixing should allow cigs to
rise to low end VFR later this afternoon and continue through
tonight. Low level moisture should remain plentiful and Bufkit
soundings and condensation pressure deficit progs indicate another
southward surge of MVFR cigs out of IA/northern MO will push into the
terminals Thursday morning.
Any instability showers this afternoon should remain north of the
terminals over northern MO and dissipate a few hours after sunset.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ
000
FXUS63 KSGF 221703
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WIND PROFILER
NETWORK DEPICTED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS IN THE PROCESS OF ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH HAS TOUCHED
OFF A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OPENS UP AND
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEPICT ADDITIONAL LOBES OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WE WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. FIRST
OFF...THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE POSITION OF
THE MEAN LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS AND A GLANCE AT LOW LEVEL THETA-E
PLOTS INDICATES THAT THE MISSOURI OZARKS MAY BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO RECEIVE MCS ACTIVITY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT...SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 20 TO 30
POPS BEYOND THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SOME STRATOCU HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND COULD SEE
SOME CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 21-22Z WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
000
FXUS63 KEAX 221125
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 AM CDT Wed May 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
The upper-level low will pass just to the north of the forecast area
this afternoon as it tracks to the east southeast. This close
proximity may lead to a few showers across northern and northeastern
Missouri this afternoon. These should be mainly diurnally driven so
think the best chances will be during the afternoon with dissipation
around 00Z or so.
A cool and dry surface ridge will build into the region Thursday and
with the upper storm exiting to the east and shortwave ridging aloft,
we should see quiet and comfortable weather. Highs should range from
the upper 60s to the lower 70s with humidity in the 40 to 50 percent
range.
For Friday and especially Friday night, chances for precipitation
will increase. At the surface, the high pressure center will be
sliding off into the Great Lakes. This will eventually turn our
winds to the southeast but trajectories for our area will basically
be recirculating the cooler and drier air into the region. While it
looks to a bit warmer, highs should still be in the mid 70s and
humidity values of 40 to 50 percent will continue to result in
comfortable weather conditions. Have kept a mention of low PoPs
across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri for the daytime
hours. But not very confident that precipitation will make it this
far east through the day. The better chances will come over night
when broad and moist isentropic ascent will spread across the area.
Still the chances look to be less than 50 percent at this time. The
best chances for storms should be more across central Kansas and
Nebraska where the nose of the low-level jet will be focused.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
Warming temperatures and on-and-off thunderstorm chances will spread
through the weekend and the early half of next week, as ridging
gradually strengthens over the eastern Plains and a series of
shortwave troughs push through the forecast area. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated through the end of the forecast period,
due to a lack of low-level focus for convective initiation underneath
the mid-level disturbances.
The best chances for precipitation will be on Saturday afternoon and
into the evening as both the EC and GFS bring a fairly well-defined
shortwave trough through northern or central Missouri; and then
again on Sunday as trailing energy continues to push through the
region. Afterward, lower-end precipitation chances will spread
through the rest of the forecast period as a multitude of shortwave
troughs head into the region; however, the timing and placement of
these features becomes very uncertain as we move further into next
week.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be near to slightly above normal
as ridging begins to set up over the region; for Monday through
Wednesday, highs will hit a few degrees above normal in the lower
to mid 80`s. Lows will also be several degrees above normal in the
mid 60`s throughout the long-range forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
Mainly VFR conditions are expected today; however, a few higher-end
MVFR ceilings between 2-3 kft may sneak into northwest Missouri this
morning. Although ceilings will remain broken to overcast for much of
the forecast period, bases should rise above 3 kft by 18z throughout
the region. Winds will remain out of the west northwest today at 8 to
12 kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
000
FXUS63 KSGF 221125
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WIND PROFILER
NETWORK DEPICTED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS IN THE PROCESS OF ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH HAS TOUCHED
OFF A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OPENS UP AND
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEPICT ADDITIONAL LOBES OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WE WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. FIRST
OFF...THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE POSITION OF
THE MEAN LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS AND A GLANCE AT LOW LEVEL THETA-E
PLOTS INDICATES THAT THE MISSOURI OZARKS MAY BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO RECEIVE MCS ACTIVITY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT...SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 20 TO 30
POPS BEYOND THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...RESULTING IN
BREEZY WEST WINDS FROM MID MORNING UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...BOXELL
000
FXUS63 KLSX 221059
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
559 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY.
GIVEN MDL PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...HAVE LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. TO ADD TO THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE...THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS TSRA SHUD BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN MO INTO AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATHER STRONG
S/W CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS S/W STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING IF THE
LLJ CAN RESPOND BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN US.
ANOTHER S/W CURRENTLY OVER SRN NEB IS PROGD TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW LATER TODAY. THIS S/W SHUD HELP INITIATE ISOD TO SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CDFNT. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS SE MO AND SW/S CNTL IL WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPER. ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHUD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOB COOLEST MOS ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF
THE CWA AND NEAR THE WARMEST MOS ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY. TRENDED A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT AS THE CWA WILL BE BEHIND THE CDFNT.
HOWEVER...DID NOT GO TOO MUCH COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHUD HELP KEPT
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FOCUS THRU FRIDAY WILL BE TEMPS WITH CWA MAINLY DRY UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.
MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW AVG TEMPS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
STILL...HAVE TRENDED TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS IT IS STILL LATE
MAY AND BELIEVE MUCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. MDLS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING EWD WITH AN
UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SAT. BEGINNING NEXT
WEEK...MDLS DIFFER REGARDING PLACEMENT OF FEATURES...BUT AGREE IN
THE OVERALL IDEA. A SFC FNT SHUD BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHERE THIS
FNT WILL SET UP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW EXCEPT
WHERE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR PRECIP IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
HAVE TEMPS MODERATING NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER THRU
THE WEEK.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST
WIND TO BECOME WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR TODAY. COLD FRONT PASSES TERMINAL AROUND 18Z WITH POSSIBLY A
SHOWER. OTHERWISE...WIND TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIEILNG TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH WIND TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 220908
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
408 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY.
GIVEN MDL PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...HAVE LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. TO ADD TO THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE...THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS TSRA SHUD BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN MO INTO AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATHER STRONG
S/W CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS S/W STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING IF THE
LLJ CAN RESPOND BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN US.
ANOTHER S/W CURRENTLY OVER SRN NEB IS PROGD TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW LATER TODAY. THIS S/W SHUD HELP INITIATE ISOD TO SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CDFNT. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS SE MO AND SW/S CNTL IL WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPER. ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHUD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOB COOLEST MOS ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF
THE CWA AND NEAR THE WARMEST MOS ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY. TRENDED A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT AS THE CWA WILL BE BEHIND THE CDFNT.
HOWEVER...DID NOT GO TOO MUCH COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHUD HELP KEPT
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FOCUS THRU FRIDAY WILL BE TEMPS WITH CWA MAINLY DRY UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.
MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW AVG TEMPS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
STILL...HAVE TRENDED TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS IT IS STILL LATE
MAY AND BELIEVE MUCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. MDLS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING EWD WITH AN
UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SAT. BEGINNING NEXT
WEEK...MDLS DIFFER REGARDING PLACEMENT OF FEATURES...BUT AGREE IN
THE OVERALL IDEA. A SFC FNT SHUD BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHERE THIS
FNT WILL SET UP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW EXCEPT
WHERE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR PRECIP IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
HAVE TEMPS MODERATING NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER THRU
THE WEEK.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAIN DEVELOPING IN FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE ST. LOUIS METRO
TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO KUIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MANY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...RAIN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL
BEFORE 12Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 220757
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 AM CDT Wed May 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
The upper-level low will pass just to the north of the forecast area
this afternoon as it tracks to the east southeast. This close
proximity may lead to a few showers across northern and northeastern
Missouri this afternoon. These should be mainly diurnally driven so
think the best chances will be during the afternoon with dissipation
around 00Z or so.
A cool and dry surface ridge will build into the region Thursday and
with the upper storm exiting to the east and shortwave ridging aloft,
we should see quiet and comfortable weather. Highs should range from
the upper 60s to the lower 70s with humidity in the 40 to 50 percent
range.
For Friday and especially Friday night, chances for precipitation
will increase. At the surface, the high pressure center will be
sliding off into the Great Lakes. This will eventually turn our
winds to the southeast but trajectories for our area will basically
be recirculating the cooler and drier air into the region. While it
looks to a bit warmer, highs should still be in the mid 70s and
humidity values of 40 to 50 percent will continue to result in
comfortable weather conditions. Have kept a mention of low PoPs
across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri for the daytime
hours. But not very confident that precipitation will make it this
far east through the day. The better chances will come over night
when broad and moist isentropic ascent will spread across the area.
Still the chances look to be less than 50 percent at this time. The
best chances for storms should be more across central Kansas and
Nebraska where the nose of the low-level jet will be focused.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
Warming temperatures and on-and-off thunderstorm chances will spread
through the weekend and the early half of next week, as ridging
gradually strengthens over the eastern Plains and a series of
shortwave troughs push through the forecast area. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated through the end of the forecast period,
due to a lack of low-level focus for convective initiation underneath
the mid-level disturbances.
The best chances for precipitation will be on Saturday afternoon and
into the evening as both the EC and GFS bring a fairly well-defined
shortwave trough through northern or central Missouri; and then
again on Sunday as trailing energy continues to push through the
region. Afterward, lower-end precipitation chances will spread
through the rest of the forecast period as a multitude of shortwave
troughs head into the region; however, the timing and placement of
these features becomes very uncertain as we move further into next
week.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be near to slightly above normal
as ridging begins to set up over the region; for Monday through
Wednesday, highs will hit a few degrees above normal in the lower
to mid 80`s. Lows will also be several degrees above normal in the
mid 60`s throughout the long-range forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
Overall VFR conditions are expected at terminals. Low clouds will
gradually increase overnight and especially by mid morning. While
cannot rule out brief period of MVFR ceilings, overall coverage not
expected to be widespread and timing of such conditions not yet
resolvable. Very low probability of shallow ground fog overnight at
terminals as well. Otherwise west to northwest winds will increase by
mid morning and veer with time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair
000
FXUS63 KLSX 220748
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
248 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY.
GIVEN MDL PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...HAVE LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. TO ADD TO THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE...THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS TSRA SHUD BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN MO INTO AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATHER STRONG
S/W CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS S/W STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING IF THE
LLJ CAN RESPOND BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN US.
ANOTHER S/W CURRENTLY OVER SRN NEB IS PROGD TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW LATER TODAY. THIS S/W SHUD HELP INITIATE ISOD TO SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CDFNT. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS SE MO AND SW/S CNTL IL WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPER. ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHUD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOB COOLEST MOS ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF
THE CWA AND NEAR THE WARMEST MOS ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY. TRENDED A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT AS THE CWA WILL BE BEHIND THE CDFNT.
HOWEVER...DID NOT GO TOO MUCH COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHUD HELP KEPT
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RIVER
IN ILLINOIS OR FURTHER EAST AT DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE EAST.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MID-MORNING
SHOULD BE FROM ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT USHERING HIGH PRESSURE
AND EVEN COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS LARGE HIGH WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED RANGES OF THE FORECAST. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING JUST WEST OF MISSOURI SAT-MON. THIS WILL PLACE US JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE CREST AND SUBJECT TO WEAK SHORT WAVES
TOPPING THE RIDGE. THESE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM SAT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR
EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAIN DEVELOPING IN FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE ST. LOUIS METRO
TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO KUIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MANY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...RAIN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL
BEFORE 12Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BRITT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SAINT LOUIS 56 71 49 72 / 10 10 0 0
QUINCY 53 66 46 69 / 10 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 53 70 49 71 / 10 10 0 0
JEFFERSON CITY 54 71 50 72 / 10 5 0 0
SALEM 57 70 46 70 / 10 20 0 0
FARMINGTON 55 73 47 71 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 220732
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
232 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WIND PROFILER
NETWORK DEPICTED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS IN THE PROCESS OF ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH HAS TOUCHED
OFF A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OPENS UP AND
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEPICT ADDITIONAL LOBES OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
WE WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. FIRST
OFF...THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE POSITION OF
THE MEAN LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS AND A GLANCE AT LOW LEVEL THETA-E
PLOTS INDICATES THAT THE MISSOURI OZARKS MAY BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO RECEIVE MCS ACTIVITY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT...SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 20 TO 30
POPS BEYOND THAT POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT BBG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
OTHERWISE SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF GROUND
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. WEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY TODAY.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...GAGAN
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