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000
FXUS63 KEAX 310522
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER CENTRAL MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
WAVE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, AND
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ONCE THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL FILTER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SW MO TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE IA
STATE LINE. A COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND COLD AIR MEANS WIND CHILLS
DROP AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES FOR NORTHERN MO BY SUNRISE. THE GUSTY
WINDS ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED, AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT THE FORMATION OF FROST. AN AREA OF STRATUS LOCATED OVER SD
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND PASS THROUGH BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR
OVER TAKES THE REGION AND SCATTERS THE CLOUDS OUT BY TOMORROW
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
40S, AND WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A COLD
AND DRY AIR-MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. THEREFORE, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
AND THROUGH 800 AM ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY, WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MS
RIVER VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S EAST TO TO NEAR 60 WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE LLJ WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 JET
INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGHS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE H5
TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN TX. THE
STRONGER ASCENT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 50S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 60S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to push down from the north, impacting all
TAF sites between 06z and at least 10z-11z, if not a bit longer. The
cloud deck will be accompanied by strong north winds in the 15 to 20
kt range, with gusts up to 30 kts possible. After stratus clears on
Friday morning, skies will become clear and remain VFR through the
rest of the TAF period. Winds will remain sustained at around 12-15
kts with gusts up to 20 kts through the day, then will drop off
quickly around sunset Friday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...Laflin






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000
FXUS63 KLSX 310457
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

The light showers which have been moving through southeast MO and
southwest IL should shift southeast of our forecast area by
midnight. Patchy light rain, mainly sprinkles will move
southeastward through mainly the IL counties of our forecast area
late this evening and overnight. This activity is associated with
another northwest flow shortwave and a secondary cold front. Post
frontal low level cloudiness across the northern Plains will
advect southeastward into our area later tonight. Surface winds
will become northwesterly and strengthen behind the second cold
front, bringing much colder air into our area. This strong cold
air advection late tonight will lead to below normal temperatures
across northeast MO with temperatures dropping to close to
32 degrees in this area by 12z Friday.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Focus this evening will be on PoPs.

Sfc low continues to move thru the CWA with light SHRA ahead of
the low. At the current rate, the SHRA will be out of the CWA
around or by 00z. However, redevelopment will be possible,
especially across ern portions of the CWA as a secondary fnt
pushes swd. The secondary fnt shud bring colder air, but
additional clouds as well. This presents a bit of a forecast
challenge for temps tonight. Overall, trended twd the cooler
guidance across the N where clouds shud clear late tonight, and
warmer further S where clouds shud linger and fnt may not arrive
by sunrise tomorrow. While temps tonight will be around freezing
across the nrn counties, do not anticipate a hard freeze and
strong winds behind the fnt shud prevent any frost from forming.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Sfc ridge builds into the region beginning Fri. With no precip
expected, focus turns to temps thru the weekend.

Mdls are in good agreement thru the weekend with the sfc ridge
settling just NW of the CWA Fri night, then to the SE on Sat
night. This shud allow ample radiational cooling across the region
with a clear sky for nearly the entire night. Have upgraded the
Freeze Watch to a Warning for the entire CWA as confidence
continues to build. Note that if this Warning verifies across the
CWA, this will end the Freeze/Frost headlines for the CWA this
year as the growing season has come to a close.

Mdls remain in fairly good agreement with the next cdfnt to impact
the region. Latest guidance suggests precip develop/enter the CWA
Mon afternoon and persist thru much of the day Tues and into Tues
evening as the slow moving cdfnt pushes thru the area.

Not much in the way of cold air is currently expected behind this
fnt. Some differences exist among mdl guidance regarding temps
behind this fnt. For now, have trended twd a compromise.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will prevail at the TAF sites thru
much of the valid period. A weak area of low pressure just west of
the STL metro area, resulting in light and variable winds with
strengthening winds in its wake out of the N-NW, will drop
southeast allowing a secondary cold front in later tonight. The
only exception to the VFR looks to be with a period of lower CIGs
following the secondary cold front. Another potential pitfall with
non-VFR is a period early on of fog with weak winds, mostly clear
skies and low dewpoint depressions over the STL metro area, but
increasing winds, drier air, and clouds very soon should nullify
that possibility. There is also some small potential for light
sprinkles with the lower CIGs when they do move in, but left dry
in the TAFs. Otherwise, look for a substantial increase in winds
from the N-NW later tonight with this second front and this should
persist thru Friday with clouds scattering out Friday morning, and
then a diminishing around sunset.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru much of the valid period.
Exception will be late tonight with MVFR CIGs expected and perhaps
a few sprinkles as well. Gusty N-NW winds will move in about the
same time as the lower CIGs and should persist thru the day on
Friday--only diminishing toward sunset.

TES

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
     MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles
     MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




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000
FXUS63 KSGF 310419
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1119 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across the
Ozarks Region today in advance of an approaching cold front. All
rainfall is expected to exit east this afternoon, setting up sunny
and dry weather the rest of the afternoon.

The approaching front will bring a cold Canadian airmass over much
of the nation`s mid section, causing temperatures to fall.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Despite sunshine on Friday, highs will struggle to warm out of the
40s due to strong cold air advection.

By Friday night into early Saturday morning, a hard freeze will
occur, ending the 2014 growing season for the entire area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s. Please note that a
Freeze Warning has been posted for the Friday night and Saturday
morning period.

Southerly breezes will quickly return by mid day Saturday setting
up our next warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Fair weather is expected on Sunday as southerly winds promote
warmer temperatures. This flow will also force Gulf moisture back
into the Ozarks, setting the stage for our next episode of showers
and thunderstorms.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have consistently suggested the gradual
approach of a storm system early in the week, that would provide
the region with widespread rainfall, particularly Monday into
Wednesday.

This storm system will be structured in a positively tilted fashion,
which is ideal for decent rainfall amounts, especially considering
it`s slow progression.

We think rain amounts Monday through Wednesday will range from one
to three inches. Again with the rain becoming very widespread, we
have decided to mention a limited risk for flooding in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions for much of tonight then lowering
ceilings toward morning.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the region tonight
and Friday. A secondary cold front will plunge through the area
early Friday bringing a period of MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
increasing northerly winds.

Surface winds will gusts over 20 kts at times Friday before
subsiding Friday evening. Low level wind shear will impact the
area tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 310419
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1119 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across the
Ozarks Region today in advance of an approaching cold front. All
rainfall is expected to exit east this afternoon, setting up sunny
and dry weather the rest of the afternoon.

The approaching front will bring a cold Canadian airmass over much
of the nation`s mid section, causing temperatures to fall.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Despite sunshine on Friday, highs will struggle to warm out of the
40s due to strong cold air advection.

By Friday night into early Saturday morning, a hard freeze will
occur, ending the 2014 growing season for the entire area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s. Please note that a
Freeze Warning has been posted for the Friday night and Saturday
morning period.

Southerly breezes will quickly return by mid day Saturday setting
up our next warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Fair weather is expected on Sunday as southerly winds promote
warmer temperatures. This flow will also force Gulf moisture back
into the Ozarks, setting the stage for our next episode of showers
and thunderstorms.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have consistently suggested the gradual
approach of a storm system early in the week, that would provide
the region with widespread rainfall, particularly Monday into
Wednesday.

This storm system will be structured in a positively tilted fashion,
which is ideal for decent rainfall amounts, especially considering
it`s slow progression.

We think rain amounts Monday through Wednesday will range from one
to three inches. Again with the rain becoming very widespread, we
have decided to mention a limited risk for flooding in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions for much of tonight then lowering
ceilings toward morning.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the region tonight
and Friday. A secondary cold front will plunge through the area
early Friday bringing a period of MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
increasing northerly winds.

Surface winds will gusts over 20 kts at times Friday before
subsiding Friday evening. Low level wind shear will impact the
area tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KLSX 310307
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1007 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

The light showers which have been moving through southeast MO and
southwest IL should shift southeast of our forecast area by
midnight. Patchy light rain, mainly sprinkles will move
southeastward through mainly the IL counties of our forecast area
late this evening and overnight. This activity is associated with
another northwest flow shortwave and a secondary cold front. Post
frontal low level cloudiness across the northern Plains will
advect southeastward into our area later tonight. Surface winds
will become northwesterly and strengthen behind the second cold
front, bringing much colder air into our area. This strong cold
air advection late tonight will lead to below normal temperatures
across northeast MO with temperatures dropping to close to
32 degrees in this area by 12z Friday.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Focus this evening will be on PoPs.

Sfc low continues to move thru the CWA with light SHRA ahead of
the low. At the current rate, the SHRA will be out of the CWA
around or by 00z. However, redevelopment will be possible,
especially across ern portions of the CWA as a secondary fnt
pushes swd. The secondary fnt shud bring colder air, but
additional clouds as well. This presents a bit of a forecast
challenge for temps tonight. Overall, trended twd the cooler
guidance across the N where clouds shud clear late tonight, and
warmer further S where clouds shud linger and fnt may not arrive
by sunrise tomorrow. While temps tonight will be around freezing
across the nrn counties, do not anticipate a hard freeze and
strong winds behind the fnt shud prevent any frost from forming.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Sfc ridge builds into the region beginning Fri. With no precip
expected, focus turns to temps thru the weekend.

Mdls are in good agreement thru the weekend with the sfc ridge
settling just NW of the CWA Fri night, then to the SE on Sat
night. This shud allow ample radiational cooling across the region
with a clear sky for nearly the entire night. Have upgraded the
Freeze Watch to a Warning for the entire CWA as confidence
continues to build. Note that if this Warning verifies across the
CWA, this will end the Freeze/Frost headlines for the CWA this
year as the growing season has come to a close.

Mdls remain in fairly good agreement with the next cdfnt to impact
the region. Latest guidance suggests precip develop/enter the CWA
Mon afternoon and persist thru much of the day Tues and into Tues
evening as the slow moving cdfnt pushes thru the area.

Not much in the way of cold air is currently expected behind this
fnt. Some differences exist among mdl guidance regarding temps
behind this fnt. For now, have trended twd a compromise.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will prevail at the TAF sites thru
much of the valid period. A weak area of low pressure over our
region now, resulting in light and variable winds, will drop
southeast allowing a secondary cold front in later tonight. The
only exception to the VFR and perhaps the dry weather looks to be
with that secondary cold front dropping down, and should give the
TAF sites a period of a few hours of MVFR CIGs late tonight.
There is also some small potential for light sprinkles with these
lower CIGs but for now have left dry in the TAFs. Otherwise, look
for a substantial increase in winds from the N-NW later tonight
with this second front and this should persist thru Friday with
clouds scattering out Friday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru much of the valid period.
Exception will be late tonight with MVFR CIGs expected and perhaps
a few sprinkles as well. Gusty N-NW winds will move in about the
same time as the lower CIGs and should persist thru the day on
Friday--only diminishing toward sunset.

TES

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
     MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles
     MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 302335
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
635 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Focus this evening will be on PoPs.

Sfc low continues to move thru the CWA with light SHRA ahead of
the low. At the current rate, the SHRA will be out of the CWA
around or by 00z. However, redevelopment will be possible,
especially across ern portions of the CWA as a secondary fnt
pushes swd. The secondary fnt shud bring colder air, but
additional clouds as well. This presents a bit of a forecast
challenge for temps tonight. Overall, trended twd the cooler
guidance across the N where clouds shud clear late tonight, and
warmer further S where clouds shud linger and fnt may not arrive
by sunrise tomorrow. While temps tonight will be around freezing
across the nrn counties, do not anticipate a hard freeze and
strong winds behind the fnt shud prevent any frost from forming.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Sfc ridge builds into the region beginning Fri. With no precip
expected, focus turns to temps thru the weekend.

Mdls are in good agreement thru the weekend with the sfc ridge
settling just NW of the CWA Fri night, then to the SE on Sat
night. This shud allow ample radiational cooling across the region
with a clear sky for nearly the entire night. Have upgraded the
Freeze Watch to a Warning for the entire CWA as confidence
continues to build. Note that if this Warning verifies across the
CWA, this will end the Freeze/Frost headlines for the CWA this
year as the growing season has come to a close.

Mdls remain in fairly good agreement with the next cdfnt to impact
the region. Latest guidance suggests precip develop/enter the CWA
Mon afternoon and persist thru much of the day Tues and into Tues
evening as the slow moving cdfnt pushes thru the area.

Not much in the way of cold air is currently expected behind this
fnt. Some differences exist among mdl guidance regarding temps
behind this fnt. For now, have trended twd a compromise.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

VFR conditions and dry weather will prevail at the TAF sites thru
much of the valid period. A weak area of low pressure over our
region now, resulting in light and variable winds, will drop
southeast allowing a secondary cold front in later tonight. The
only exception to the VFR and perhaps the dry weather looks to be
with that secondary cold front dropping down, and should give the
TAF sites a period of a few hours of MVFR CIGs late tonight.
There is also some small potential for light sprinkles with these
lower CIGs but for now have left dry in the TAFs. Otherwise, look
for a substantial increase in winds from the N-NW later tonight
with this second front and this should persist thru Friday with
clouds scattering out Friday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru much of the valid period.
Exception will be late tonight with MVFR CIGs expected and perhaps
a few sprinkles as well. Gusty N-NW winds will move in about the
same time as the lower CIGs and should persist thru the day on
Friday--only diminishing toward sunset.

TES

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
     MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles
     MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 302333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across the
Ozarks Region today in advance of an approaching cold front. All
rainfall is expected to exit east this afternoon, setting up sunny
and dry weather the rest of the afternoon.

The approaching front will bring a cold Canadian airmass over much
of the nation`s mid section, causing temperatures to fall.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Despite sunshine on Friday, highs will struggle to warm out of the
40s due to strong cold air advection.

By Friday night into early Saturday morning, a hard freeze will
occur, ending the 2014 growing season for the entire area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s. Please note that a
Freeze Warning has been posted for the Friday night and Saturday
morning period.

Southerly breezes will quickly return by mid day Saturday setting
up our next warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Fair weather is expected on Sunday as southerly winds promote
warmer temperatures. This flow will also force Gulf moisture back
into the Ozarks, setting the stage for our next episode of showers
and thunderstorms.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have consistently suggested the gradual
approach of a storm system early in the week, that would provide
the region with widespread rainfall, particularly Monday into
Wednesday.

This storm system will be structured in a positively tilted fashion,
which is ideal for decent rainfall amounts, especially considering
it`s slow progression.

We think rain amounts Monday through Wednesday will range from one
to three inches. Again with the rain becoming very widespread, we
have decided to mention a limited risk for flooding in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions for much of tonight then lowering
ceilings toward morning.

Surface high pressure will build southward into the region tonight
and Friday. A secondary cold front will plunge through the area
early Friday bringing a period of MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
increasing northerly winds.

Surface winds will gusts over 20 kts at times Friday before
subsiding Friday evening. Low level wind shear will impact the
area tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302320
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER CENTRAL MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
WAVE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, AND
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ONCE THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL FILTER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SW MO TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE IA
STATE LINE. A COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND COLD AIR MEANS WIND CHILLS
DROP AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES FOR NORTHERN MO BY SUNRISE. THE GUSTY
WINDS ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED, AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT THE FORMATION OF FROST. AN AREA OF STRATUS LOCATED OVER SD
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND PASS THROUGH BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR
OVER TAKES THE REGION AND SCATTERS THE CLOUDS OUT BY TOMORROW
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
40S, AND WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A COLD
AND DRY AIR-MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. THEREFORE, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
AND THROUGH 800 AM ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY, WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MS
RIVER VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S EAST TO TO NEAR 60 WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE LLJ WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 JET
INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGHS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE H5
TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN TX. THE
STRONGER ASCENT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 50S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 60S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR clouds will continue to move south overnight into and through
the terminal sites, resulting in MVFR clouds for the remainder of the
night. MVFR cloud cover should begin moving out around sunrise
Friday, but the breezy wind that will accompany the clouds tonight
will persist through the morning hours of Friday before the center of
the cold surface high slides in bringing the gusty wind to an end.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KEAX 302154 CCA
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER CENTRAL MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
WAVE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, AND
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ONCE THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL FILTER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SW MO TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE IA
STATE LINE. A COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND COLD AIR MEANS WIND CHILLS
DROP AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES FOR NORTHERN MO BY SUNRISE. THE GUSTY
WINDS ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED, AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT THE FORMATION OF FROST. AN AREA OF STRATUS LOCATED OVER SD
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND PASS THROUGH BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR
OVER TAKES THE REGION AND SCATTERS THE CLOUDS OUT BY TOMORROW
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
40S, AND WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A COLD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. THEREFORE, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
AND THROUGH 800 AM ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY, WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MS
RIVER VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S EAST TO TO NEAR 60 WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE LLJ WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 JET
INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGHS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE H5
TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN TX. THE
STRONGER ASCENT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 50S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 60S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINALS AND GENERALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE CHALLENGE IS MORE
TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD WHEN MORNING STRATUS BECOMES A
FACTOR OVER THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE BKN CIGS, SO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER, AFTER
DAY BREAK, ANY CIGS THAT FORM SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE
MORNING.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-
057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...DRAKE







000
FXUS63 KEAX 302154 CCA
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER CENTRAL MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
WAVE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, AND
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ONCE THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL FILTER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SW MO TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE IA
STATE LINE. A COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND COLD AIR MEANS WIND CHILLS
DROP AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES FOR NORTHERN MO BY SUNRISE. THE GUSTY
WINDS ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED, AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT THE FORMATION OF FROST. AN AREA OF STRATUS LOCATED OVER SD
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND PASS THROUGH BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR
OVER TAKES THE REGION AND SCATTERS THE CLOUDS OUT BY TOMORROW
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
40S, AND WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A COLD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. THEREFORE, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
AND THROUGH 800 AM ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY, WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MS
RIVER VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S EAST TO TO NEAR 60 WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE LLJ WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 JET
INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGHS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE H5
TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN TX. THE
STRONGER ASCENT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 50S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 60S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINALS AND GENERALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE CHALLENGE IS MORE
TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD WHEN MORNING STRATUS BECOMES A
FACTOR OVER THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE BKN CIGS, SO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER, AFTER
DAY BREAK, ANY CIGS THAT FORM SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE
MORNING.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-
057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...DRAKE







000
FXUS63 KLSX 302026
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
326 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Focus this evening will be on PoPs.

Sfc low continues to move thru the CWA with light SHRA ahead of
the low. At the current rate, the SHRA will be out of the CWA
around or by 00z. However, redevelopment will be possible,
especially across ern portions of the CWA as a secondary fnt
pushes swd. The secondary fnt shud bring colder air, but
additional clouds as well. This presents a bit of a forecast
challenge for temps tonight. Overall, trended twd the cooler
guidance across the N where clouds shud clear late tonight, and
warmer further S where clouds shud linger and fnt may not arrive
by sunrise tomorrow. While temps tonight will be around freezing
across the nrn counties, do not anticipate a hard freeze and
strong winds behind the fnt shud prevent any frost from forming.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Sfc ridge builds into the region beginning Fri. With no precip
expected, focus turns to temps thru the weekend.

Mdls are in good agreement thru the weekend with the sfc ridge
settling just NW of the CWA Fri night, then to the SE on Sat
night. This shud allow ample radiational cooling across the region
with a clear sky for nearly the entire night. Have upgraded the
Freeze Watch to a Warning for the entire CWA as confidence
continues to build. Note that if this Warning verifies across the
CWA, this will end the Freeze/Frost headlines for the CWA this
year as the growing season has come to a close.

Mdls remain in fairly good agreement with the next cdfnt to impact
the region. Latest guidance suggests precip develop/enter the CWA
Mon afternoon and persist thru much of the day Tues and into Tues
evening as the slow moving cdfnt pushes thru the area.

Not much in the way of cold air is currently expected behind this
fnt. Some differences exist among mdl guidance regarding temps
behind this fnt. For now, have trended twd a compromise.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

The back edge of a large area of showers currently extends from
KUIN to just west of KCOU at midday. These showers will continue
moving to the east through the afternoon impacting the St. Louis
area terminals with light rain showers and VFR conditions. The
precipitation should be east of all TAF sites by 23z. A cold front
will then pass through the area this evening with a big increase
in northwest winds overnight accompanied by a period of MVFR cigs.
The cigs should clear out on Friday morning with gusty northwest
winds continuing well into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Light rain showers accompanied by VFR flight conditions will
impact the terminal this afternoon and should exit to the east by
23z. Thereafter a cold front will move through this evening with a
big increase in northwest winds overnight, accompanied by a period
of MVFR cigs beginning around 11z. The cigs should clear out near
15z Friday morning with gusty northwest winds continuing well into
the afternoon.

Glass

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     41  47  28  47 /  10   5   0   0
Quincy          34  45  24  45 /   5   5   0   0
Columbia        37  46  25  47 /   5   0   0   0
Jefferson City  38  47  25  49 /   5   0   0   0
Salem           41  48  28  47 /  50  10   0   0
Farmington      40  47  25  47 /  30   5   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
     MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles
     MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301953
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
253 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Focus this evening will be on PoPs.

Sfc low continues to move thru the CWA with light SHRA ahead of
the low. At the current rate, the SHRA will be out of the CWA
around or by 00z. However, redevelopment will be possible,
especially across ern portions of the CWA as a secondary fnt
pushes swd. The secondary fnt shud bring colder air, but
additional clouds as well. This presents a bit of a forecast
challenge for temps tonight. Overall, trended twd the cooler
guidance across the N where clouds shud clear late tonight, and
warmer further S where clouds shud linger and fnt may not arrive
by sunrise tomorrow. While temps tonight will be around freezing
across the nrn counties, do not anticipate a hard freeze and
strong winds behind the fnt shud prevent any frost from forming.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Surface low to continue tracking southeast tonight away from
forecast area. Could still see some showers this evening for
southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Otherwise, lows
will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

On Friday, more vigorous shortwave to drop south across Illinois on
backside of upper low. Could see some showers develop far east, but
confidence is low so kept this area dry for now. This system will
bring in much colder air as the day progresses as well as gusty
north winds. Temperatures will struggle to rise much, depending on
cloud cover. For now have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could reach
highs by midday, then see temps remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours.

Friday night will be the coldest we have seen since mid April. With
the clear skies and winds diminishing, will see lows in the 20s.
Kept freeze watch going for late Friday night/early Saturday
morning.

Temperatures to begin a slow moderation by Sunday as surface ridge
moves off to east and next weather system approaches region. Highs
by Sunday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models are a bit
slower in bringing in precipitation with next system, so only have
slight chance pops for far northern portions of forecast area Sunday
night. Best chances of precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before tapering off by Wednesday. Some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with this system, but expect mostly
showers. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

The back edge of a large area of showers currently extends from
KUIN to just west of KCOU at midday. These showers will continue
moving to the east through the afternoon impacting the St. Louis
area terminals with light rain showers and VFR conditions. The
precipitation should be east of all TAF sites by 23z. A cold front
will then pass through the area this evening with a big increase
in northwest winds overnight accompanied by a period of MVFR cigs.
The cigs should clear out on Friday morning with gusty northwest
winds continuing well into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Light rain showers accompanied by VFR flight conditions will
impact the terminal this afternoon and should exit to the east by
23z. Thereafter a cold front will move through this evening with a
big increase in northwest winds overnight, accompanied by a period
of MVFR cigs beginning around 11z. The cigs should clear out near
15z Friday morning with gusty northwest winds continuing well into
the afternoon.

Glass

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     40  47  28  48 /  20   5   0   0
Quincy          33  45  24  46 /   5   5   0   0
Columbia        35  46  25  48 /   5   0   0   0
Jefferson City  37  47  25  50 /   5   0   0   0
Salem           39  48  28  48 /  50  10   0   0
Farmington      38  47  25  48 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
     MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles
     MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KSGF 301929
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...FREEZE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across the
Ozarks Region today in advance of an approaching cold front. All
rainfall is expected to exit east this afternoon, setting up sunny
and dry weather the rest of the afternoon.

The approaching front will bring a cold Canadian airmass over much
of the nation`s mid section, causing temperatures to fall.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Despite sunshine on Friday, highs will struggle to warm out of the
40s due to strong cold air advection.

By Friday night into early Saturday morning, a hard freeze will
occur, ending the 2014 growing season for the entire area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s. Please note that a
Freeze Warning has been posted for the Friday night and Saturday
morning period.

Southerly breezes will quickly return by mid day Saturday setting
up our next warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Fair weather is expected on Sunday as southerly winds promote
warmer temperatures. This flow will also force Gulf moisture back
into the Ozarks, setting the stage for our next episode of showers
and thunderstorms.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have consistently suggested the gradual
approach of a storm system early in the week, that would provide
the region with widespread rainfall, particularly Monday into
Wednesday.

This storm system will be structured in a positively tilted fashion,
which is ideal for decent rainfall amounts, especially considering
it`s slow progression.

We think rain amounts Monday through Wednesday will range from one
to three inches. Again with the rain becoming very widespread, we
have decided to mention a limited risk for flooding in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Shortwave was pushing through the area this morning with scattered
showers/isolated thunder pushing through and was now along and
south of the interstate 44 corridor. These showers were occurring
from some mid level cloud cover and flight conditions have
remained in VFR. Winds behind the shortwave will shift around to
the southwest and then west during the afternoon/evening with some
gusty winds expected and the cloud cover should clear. During the
evening and overnight, winds will become out of the northwest. Low
level wind shear will occur overnight as strong cold air advection
takes place across the area with a strong Canadian high pressure
system begins to build into the area. Should remain in VFR
conditions through the period. Winds will begin to mix to the
ground during the daytime Friday with gusts up to 25 kts expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301730
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Lift associated with the northwest flow short wave trof currently
centered through northwest MO has been producing a growing area of
light rain/showers, which is presently situated from NE MO into SW
MO. Despite relatively dry low levels, measurable precipitation is
occurring and there have been a few lightning strikes in western MO
associated with steep mid level lapse rates/weak elevated instability.
Trends noted on radar within last few hours are not expected to
change much with precipitation spreading eastward across eastern
MO into southwest IL this afternoon. Light measurable precipitation
to trace amounts expected, and can`t rule out an isolated rumble
of thunder.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Main focus for today will be clipper-like system coming in from the
mid-Missouri Valley and its associated impacts on the sensible weather.
Models are in fairly good agreement wrt track and timing of this system
with sfc low located just west of KMBY around 1800 UTC to just west of KFAM
around 0000 UTC Friday...quite an unusual track this far southwest
especially given the time of year. Have increased PoPs parallel and to
the ENE of the sfc low track into the low-end likely category which
conceptually matches best with the QPF output from the 0000 UTC
Thursday model run from the ECMWF. Specifically...this paints some likely
PoPs oriented northwest to southeast from near KHAE to NW of KSAR. Amounts
will be fairly light...around a tenth of an inch.

Temperatures will also be problematic today...certainly not atypical of
clippers...with a sharp southwest to northeast gradient. Leaned above
guidance along and especially to the south and west of the consensus sfc
low track...i.e. most of central Missouri including KCOU and KJEF. For
roughly the northeastern half of the CWA leaned a bit cooler than guidance
due to more cloud cover...higher likelihood of rain showers...and a more
easterly component to winds which combined are expected to hold temps in
check.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Surface low to continue tracking southeast tonight away from
forecast area. Could still see some showers this evening for
southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Otherwise, lows
will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

On Friday, more vigorous shortwave to drop south across Illinois on
backside of upper low. Could see some showers develop far east, but
confidence is low so kept this area dry for now. This system will
bring in much colder air as the day progresses as well as gusty
north winds. Temperatures will struggle to rise much, depending on
cloud cover. For now have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could reach
highs by midday, then see temps remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours.

Friday night will be the coldest we have seen since mid April. With
the clear skies and winds diminishing, will see lows in the 20s.
Kept freeze watch going for late Friday night/early Saturday
morning.

Temperatures to begin a slow moderation by Sunday as surface ridge
moves off to east and next weather system approaches region. Highs
by Sunday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models are a bit
slower in bringing in precipitation with next system, so only have
slight chance pops for far northern portions of forecast area Sunday
night. Best chances of precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before tapering off by Wednesday. Some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with this system, but expect mostly
showers. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

The back edge of a large area of showers currently extends from
KUIN to just west of KCOU at midday. These showers will continue
moving to the east through the afternoon impacting the St. Louis
area terminals with light rain showers and VFR conditions. The
precipitation should be east of all TAF sites by 23z. A cold front
will then pass through the area this evening with a big increase
in northwest winds overnight accompanied by a period of MVFR cigs.
The cigs should clear out on Friday morning with gusty northwest
winds continuing well into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Light rain showers accompanied by VFR flight conditions will
impact the terminal this afternoon and should exit to the east by
23z. Thereafter a cold front will move through this evening with a
big increase in northwest winds overnight, accompanied by a period
of MVFR cigs beginning around 11z. The cigs should clear out near
15z Friday morning with gusty northwest winds continuing well into
the afternoon.

Glass

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301730
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Lift associated with the northwest flow short wave trof currently
centered through northwest MO has been producing a growing area of
light rain/showers, which is presently situated from NE MO into SW
MO. Despite relatively dry low levels, measurable precipitation is
occurring and there have been a few lightning strikes in western MO
associated with steep mid level lapse rates/weak elevated instability.
Trends noted on radar within last few hours are not expected to
change much with precipitation spreading eastward across eastern
MO into southwest IL this afternoon. Light measurable precipitation
to trace amounts expected, and can`t rule out an isolated rumble
of thunder.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Main focus for today will be clipper-like system coming in from the
mid-Missouri Valley and its associated impacts on the sensible weather.
Models are in fairly good agreement wrt track and timing of this system
with sfc low located just west of KMBY around 1800 UTC to just west of KFAM
around 0000 UTC Friday...quite an unusual track this far southwest
especially given the time of year. Have increased PoPs parallel and to
the ENE of the sfc low track into the low-end likely category which
conceptually matches best with the QPF output from the 0000 UTC
Thursday model run from the ECMWF. Specifically...this paints some likely
PoPs oriented northwest to southeast from near KHAE to NW of KSAR. Amounts
will be fairly light...around a tenth of an inch.

Temperatures will also be problematic today...certainly not atypical of
clippers...with a sharp southwest to northeast gradient. Leaned above
guidance along and especially to the south and west of the consensus sfc
low track...i.e. most of central Missouri including KCOU and KJEF. For
roughly the northeastern half of the CWA leaned a bit cooler than guidance
due to more cloud cover...higher likelihood of rain showers...and a more
easterly component to winds which combined are expected to hold temps in
check.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Surface low to continue tracking southeast tonight away from
forecast area. Could still see some showers this evening for
southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Otherwise, lows
will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

On Friday, more vigorous shortwave to drop south across Illinois on
backside of upper low. Could see some showers develop far east, but
confidence is low so kept this area dry for now. This system will
bring in much colder air as the day progresses as well as gusty
north winds. Temperatures will struggle to rise much, depending on
cloud cover. For now have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could reach
highs by midday, then see temps remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours.

Friday night will be the coldest we have seen since mid April. With
the clear skies and winds diminishing, will see lows in the 20s.
Kept freeze watch going for late Friday night/early Saturday
morning.

Temperatures to begin a slow moderation by Sunday as surface ridge
moves off to east and next weather system approaches region. Highs
by Sunday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models are a bit
slower in bringing in precipitation with next system, so only have
slight chance pops for far northern portions of forecast area Sunday
night. Best chances of precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before tapering off by Wednesday. Some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with this system, but expect mostly
showers. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

The back edge of a large area of showers currently extends from
KUIN to just west of KCOU at midday. These showers will continue
moving to the east through the afternoon impacting the St. Louis
area terminals with light rain showers and VFR conditions. The
precipitation should be east of all TAF sites by 23z. A cold front
will then pass through the area this evening with a big increase
in northwest winds overnight accompanied by a period of MVFR cigs.
The cigs should clear out on Friday morning with gusty northwest
winds continuing well into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Light rain showers accompanied by VFR flight conditions will
impact the terminal this afternoon and should exit to the east by
23z. Thereafter a cold front will move through this evening with a
big increase in northwest winds overnight, accompanied by a period
of MVFR cigs beginning around 11z. The cigs should clear out near
15z Friday morning with gusty northwest winds continuing well into
the afternoon.

Glass

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301638
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1138 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Lift associated with the northwest flow short wave trof currently
centered through northwest MO has been producing a growing area of
light rain/showers, which is presently situated from NE MO into SW
MO. Despite relatively dry low levels, measurable precipitation is
occurring and there have been a few lightning strikes in western MO
associated with steep mid level lapse rates/weak elevated instability.
Trends noted on radar within last few hours are not expected to
change much with precipitation spreading eastward across eastern
MO into southwest IL this afternoon. Light measurable precipitation
to trace amounts expected, and can`t rule out an isolated rumble
of thunder.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Main focus for today will be clipper-like system coming in from the
mid-Missouri Valley and its associated impacts on the sensible weather.
Models are in fairly good agreement wrt track and timing of this system
with sfc low located just west of KMBY around 1800 UTC to just west of KFAM
around 0000 UTC Friday...quite an unusual track this far southwest
especially given the time of year. Have increased PoPs parallel and to
the ENE of the sfc low track into the low-end likely category which
conceptually matches best with the QPF output from the 0000 UTC
Thursday model run from the ECMWF. Specifically...this paints some likely
PoPs oriented northwest to southeast from near KHAE to NW of KSAR. Amounts
will be fairly light...around a tenth of an inch.

Temperatures will also be problematic today...certainly not atypical of
clippers...with a sharp southwest to northeast gradient. Leaned above
guidance along and especially to the south and west of the consensus sfc
low track...i.e. most of central Missouri including KCOU and KJEF. For
roughly the northeastern half of the CWA leaned a bit cooler than guidance
due to more cloud cover...higher likelihood of rain showers...and a more
easterly component to winds which combined are expected to hold temps in
check.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Surface low to continue tracking southeast tonight away from
forecast area. Could still see some showers this evening for
southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Otherwise, lows
will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

On Friday, more vigorous shortwave to drop south across Illinois on
backside of upper low. Could see some showers develop far east, but
confidence is low so kept this area dry for now. This system will
bring in much colder air as the day progresses as well as gusty
north winds. Temperatures will struggle to rise much, depending on
cloud cover. For now have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could reach
highs by midday, then see temps remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours.

Friday night will be the coldest we have seen since mid April. With
the clear skies and winds diminishing, will see lows in the 20s.
Kept freeze watch going for late Friday night/early Saturday
morning.

Temperatures to begin a slow moderation by Sunday as surface ridge
moves off to east and next weather system approaches region. Highs
by Sunday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models are a bit
slower in bringing in precipitation with next system, so only have
slight chance pops for far northern portions of forecast area Sunday
night. Best chances of precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before tapering off by Wednesday. Some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with this system, but expect mostly
showers. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Main focus will be on chances of rain showers through late this
afternoon. Scattered showers may impact terminals beginning later
this morning with continued chances of rain through the afternoon.
Believe best chances of rain showers will be St. Louis metro TAF
sites early/mid afternoon and have tempo to account for this. Rain
should be fairly light coming out of a mid cloud deck and probably
will not result in low ceilings and/or visibility restrictions.
Winds will shift to out of the northwest behind the clipper-like
system this evening and become gusty late tonight/early Friday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Main focus will be on chances of rain showers through late this
afternoon. Scattered showers may impact site as soon as later
this morning with continued chances of rain through the afternoon.
Believe best chance of rain showers will be early/mid afternoon
and have tempo to account for this. Rain should be fairly light
coming out of a mid cloud deck and probably will not result in low
ceilings and/or visibility restrictions. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind the clipper-like system this evening and become
gusty late tonight/early Friday morning.

Gosselin

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301638
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1138 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Lift associated with the northwest flow short wave trof currently
centered through northwest MO has been producing a growing area of
light rain/showers, which is presently situated from NE MO into SW
MO. Despite relatively dry low levels, measurable precipitation is
occurring and there have been a few lightning strikes in western MO
associated with steep mid level lapse rates/weak elevated instability.
Trends noted on radar within last few hours are not expected to
change much with precipitation spreading eastward across eastern
MO into southwest IL this afternoon. Light measurable precipitation
to trace amounts expected, and can`t rule out an isolated rumble
of thunder.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Main focus for today will be clipper-like system coming in from the
mid-Missouri Valley and its associated impacts on the sensible weather.
Models are in fairly good agreement wrt track and timing of this system
with sfc low located just west of KMBY around 1800 UTC to just west of KFAM
around 0000 UTC Friday...quite an unusual track this far southwest
especially given the time of year. Have increased PoPs parallel and to
the ENE of the sfc low track into the low-end likely category which
conceptually matches best with the QPF output from the 0000 UTC
Thursday model run from the ECMWF. Specifically...this paints some likely
PoPs oriented northwest to southeast from near KHAE to NW of KSAR. Amounts
will be fairly light...around a tenth of an inch.

Temperatures will also be problematic today...certainly not atypical of
clippers...with a sharp southwest to northeast gradient. Leaned above
guidance along and especially to the south and west of the consensus sfc
low track...i.e. most of central Missouri including KCOU and KJEF. For
roughly the northeastern half of the CWA leaned a bit cooler than guidance
due to more cloud cover...higher likelihood of rain showers...and a more
easterly component to winds which combined are expected to hold temps in
check.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Surface low to continue tracking southeast tonight away from
forecast area. Could still see some showers this evening for
southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Otherwise, lows
will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

On Friday, more vigorous shortwave to drop south across Illinois on
backside of upper low. Could see some showers develop far east, but
confidence is low so kept this area dry for now. This system will
bring in much colder air as the day progresses as well as gusty
north winds. Temperatures will struggle to rise much, depending on
cloud cover. For now have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could reach
highs by midday, then see temps remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours.

Friday night will be the coldest we have seen since mid April. With
the clear skies and winds diminishing, will see lows in the 20s.
Kept freeze watch going for late Friday night/early Saturday
morning.

Temperatures to begin a slow moderation by Sunday as surface ridge
moves off to east and next weather system approaches region. Highs
by Sunday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models are a bit
slower in bringing in precipitation with next system, so only have
slight chance pops for far northern portions of forecast area Sunday
night. Best chances of precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before tapering off by Wednesday. Some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with this system, but expect mostly
showers. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Main focus will be on chances of rain showers through late this
afternoon. Scattered showers may impact terminals beginning later
this morning with continued chances of rain through the afternoon.
Believe best chances of rain showers will be St. Louis metro TAF
sites early/mid afternoon and have tempo to account for this. Rain
should be fairly light coming out of a mid cloud deck and probably
will not result in low ceilings and/or visibility restrictions.
Winds will shift to out of the northwest behind the clipper-like
system this evening and become gusty late tonight/early Friday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Main focus will be on chances of rain showers through late this
afternoon. Scattered showers may impact site as soon as later
this morning with continued chances of rain through the afternoon.
Believe best chance of rain showers will be early/mid afternoon
and have tempo to account for this. Rain should be fairly light
coming out of a mid cloud deck and probably will not result in low
ceilings and/or visibility restrictions. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind the clipper-like system this evening and become
gusty late tonight/early Friday morning.

Gosselin

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301635
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A large area of surface high pressure extended from the Great
Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley during the predawn hours.
This high resulted in another chilly night across the eastern
Ozarks with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s. Areas of
western Missouri and southeastern Kansas were 10-15 degrees warmer
as southerly winds increased behind that departing high. Skies
remained clear for most of the night with high clouds just
beginning to increase across central Missouri ahead of an
approaching short wave trough which was located across the Corn
Belt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

That trough will dig southeast and pass across northern Missouri
this afternoon. Despite limited moisture with this trough,
models continue to indicate an impressive amount of lift ahead of
this wave. Good isentropic lift in the lower and mid levels of the
atmosphere will become juxtaposed with strong upper level lift
as our region becomes situated within the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak. Models also continue to advertise steep
mid-level lapse rates with the NAM indicating 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE. With at least marginal instability and plenty of lift
around, we have decided to include a mention of thunder.
Interestingly, increasingly cold mid levels along with initially
dry low levels may lead to graupel potential with some of the
"stronger" updrafts. Temperatures today will be somewhat tricky
given increasing clouds but rather warm 925/850 mb temperatures
ahead of that wave. We have gone fairly close to a MAV/MET blend
which puts most locations well into the 60s with a few low 70s
even possible back towards I-49. One other item to mention today
will be the passage of a cold front this afternoon as surface low
pressure tracks southeast into eastern Missouri. While cold air
advection will initially be lacking behind the front, a period of
brisk west and then northwest winds can be expected.

Any remaining showers will quickly end across the eastern Ozarks
this evening. We will see a period of clearing skies with
lighter northwest winds. A secondary upper level wave will then
quickly move southeast across the region late tonight. This will
lead to another increase in clouds. It is not out of the question
that we could see a patch of drizzle around...especially along the
Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, northerly surface winds will begin to
increase late tonight resulting in increasing cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday then looks downright blustery as brisk northerly winds
continue to usher in a cold Canadian air mass. We should see
some morning cloud cover with an outside shot a patchy drizzle.
Skies should clear quickly but the sun will do very little to
overcome the cold air advection. We have continued the trend of
lowering expected highs on Friday as 850 mb temperatures plunge
below zero Celsius. Most areas will struggle to get out of the
middle 40s.

Surface high pressure will then nose down into the Missouri Ozarks
for Friday night which will set the stage for the end of the
growing season. Models have not backed off on the strength of the
high with a consensus somewhere in the 1032-1034 mb range. With
dew points expected to fall into the upper teens, overnight lows
are expected to fall into the middle 20s over most areas...with
lower 20s a distinct possibility in some locations. A few
locations may actually approach record lows Saturday morning. See
the Climate section below for more details. We have gone ahead and
upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for this time period
given such high confidence in a hard freeze.

Temperatures on Saturday will then remain chilly with many areas
still not reaching the 50 degree mark. Areas out towards I-49
may get there if winds can come around to the southeast by
afternoon. Another frost or freeze will then be possible Saturday
night across the eastern Ozarks as a surface ridge axis is slow to
clear that region. It may not matter much by then given the high
confidence that the growing season will be over.

Sunday will then be a transition day as an upper level ridge
quickly moves east across the Ozarks. Temperatures will rebound
back into the 50s over all areas with southerly winds increasing.

That ridge will then quickly be replaced by southwesterly flow
aloft from Sunday night into Monday. Global models continue to
depict a positively tilted long wave trough setting up from the
northern Plains into the Desert Southwest early next week. Models
also continue to show a developing baroclinic zone from the
southern Great Lakes into the southern Plains. This spells a good
chance for rain and perhaps some thunderstorms from Monday into at
least Tuesday.

Where models are struggling is with the overall fate of that long
wave trough. Most models are showing the energy splitting with a
major piece dropping south into northern Mexico. The remaining
energy and an upper level trough axis are then forecast to slide
southeast into our region sometime in the later Tuesday or
Wednesday time period. The timing and structure of that trough
will be key in driving that baroclinic zone through our area and
eventually ending the threat for rain. If the 00 UTC ECMWF is
correct, the rain threat may not end until later Wednesday. On
the other hand, the GFS has the front clearing the area Tuesday
evening.

Temperatures during the early and middle portion of next week
should be fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Shortwave was pushing through the area this morning with scattered
showers/isolated thunder pushing through and was now along and
south of the interstate 44 corridor. These showers were occurring
from some mid level cloud cover and flight conditions have
remained in VFR. Winds behind the shortwave will shift around to
the southwest and then west during the afternoon/evening with some
gusty winds expected and the cloud cover should clear. During the
evening and overnight, winds will become out of the northwest. Low
level wind shear will occur overnight as strong cold air advection
takes place across the area with a strong Canadian high pressure
system begins to build into the area. Should remain in VFR
conditions through the period. Winds will begin to mix to the
ground during the daytime Friday with gusts up to 25 kts expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301635
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A large area of surface high pressure extended from the Great
Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley during the predawn hours.
This high resulted in another chilly night across the eastern
Ozarks with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s. Areas of
western Missouri and southeastern Kansas were 10-15 degrees warmer
as southerly winds increased behind that departing high. Skies
remained clear for most of the night with high clouds just
beginning to increase across central Missouri ahead of an
approaching short wave trough which was located across the Corn
Belt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

That trough will dig southeast and pass across northern Missouri
this afternoon. Despite limited moisture with this trough,
models continue to indicate an impressive amount of lift ahead of
this wave. Good isentropic lift in the lower and mid levels of the
atmosphere will become juxtaposed with strong upper level lift
as our region becomes situated within the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak. Models also continue to advertise steep
mid-level lapse rates with the NAM indicating 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE. With at least marginal instability and plenty of lift
around, we have decided to include a mention of thunder.
Interestingly, increasingly cold mid levels along with initially
dry low levels may lead to graupel potential with some of the
"stronger" updrafts. Temperatures today will be somewhat tricky
given increasing clouds but rather warm 925/850 mb temperatures
ahead of that wave. We have gone fairly close to a MAV/MET blend
which puts most locations well into the 60s with a few low 70s
even possible back towards I-49. One other item to mention today
will be the passage of a cold front this afternoon as surface low
pressure tracks southeast into eastern Missouri. While cold air
advection will initially be lacking behind the front, a period of
brisk west and then northwest winds can be expected.

Any remaining showers will quickly end across the eastern Ozarks
this evening. We will see a period of clearing skies with
lighter northwest winds. A secondary upper level wave will then
quickly move southeast across the region late tonight. This will
lead to another increase in clouds. It is not out of the question
that we could see a patch of drizzle around...especially along the
Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, northerly surface winds will begin to
increase late tonight resulting in increasing cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday then looks downright blustery as brisk northerly winds
continue to usher in a cold Canadian air mass. We should see
some morning cloud cover with an outside shot a patchy drizzle.
Skies should clear quickly but the sun will do very little to
overcome the cold air advection. We have continued the trend of
lowering expected highs on Friday as 850 mb temperatures plunge
below zero Celsius. Most areas will struggle to get out of the
middle 40s.

Surface high pressure will then nose down into the Missouri Ozarks
for Friday night which will set the stage for the end of the
growing season. Models have not backed off on the strength of the
high with a consensus somewhere in the 1032-1034 mb range. With
dew points expected to fall into the upper teens, overnight lows
are expected to fall into the middle 20s over most areas...with
lower 20s a distinct possibility in some locations. A few
locations may actually approach record lows Saturday morning. See
the Climate section below for more details. We have gone ahead and
upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for this time period
given such high confidence in a hard freeze.

Temperatures on Saturday will then remain chilly with many areas
still not reaching the 50 degree mark. Areas out towards I-49
may get there if winds can come around to the southeast by
afternoon. Another frost or freeze will then be possible Saturday
night across the eastern Ozarks as a surface ridge axis is slow to
clear that region. It may not matter much by then given the high
confidence that the growing season will be over.

Sunday will then be a transition day as an upper level ridge
quickly moves east across the Ozarks. Temperatures will rebound
back into the 50s over all areas with southerly winds increasing.

That ridge will then quickly be replaced by southwesterly flow
aloft from Sunday night into Monday. Global models continue to
depict a positively tilted long wave trough setting up from the
northern Plains into the Desert Southwest early next week. Models
also continue to show a developing baroclinic zone from the
southern Great Lakes into the southern Plains. This spells a good
chance for rain and perhaps some thunderstorms from Monday into at
least Tuesday.

Where models are struggling is with the overall fate of that long
wave trough. Most models are showing the energy splitting with a
major piece dropping south into northern Mexico. The remaining
energy and an upper level trough axis are then forecast to slide
southeast into our region sometime in the later Tuesday or
Wednesday time period. The timing and structure of that trough
will be key in driving that baroclinic zone through our area and
eventually ending the threat for rain. If the 00 UTC ECMWF is
correct, the rain threat may not end until later Wednesday. On
the other hand, the GFS has the front clearing the area Tuesday
evening.

Temperatures during the early and middle portion of next week
should be fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Shortwave was pushing through the area this morning with scattered
showers/isolated thunder pushing through and was now along and
south of the interstate 44 corridor. These showers were occurring
from some mid level cloud cover and flight conditions have
remained in VFR. Winds behind the shortwave will shift around to
the southwest and then west during the afternoon/evening with some
gusty winds expected and the cloud cover should clear. During the
evening and overnight, winds will become out of the northwest. Low
level wind shear will occur overnight as strong cold air advection
takes place across the area with a strong Canadian high pressure
system begins to build into the area. Should remain in VFR
conditions through the period. Winds will begin to mix to the
ground during the daytime Friday with gusts up to 25 kts expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KLSX 301139
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
639 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Main focus for today will be clipper-like system coming in from the
mid-Missouri Valley and its associated impacts on the sensible weather.
Models are in fairly good agreement wrt track and timing of this system
with sfc low located just west of KMBY around 1800 UTC to just west of KFAM
around 0000 UTC Friday...quite an unusual track this far southwest
especially given the time of year. Have increased PoPs parallel and to
the ENE of the sfc low track into the low-end likely category which
conceptually matches best with the QPF output from the 0000 UTC
Thursday model run from the ECMWF. Specifically...this paints some likely
PoPs oriented northwest to southeast from near KHAE to NW of KSAR. Amounts
will be fairly light...around a tenth of an inch.

Temperatures will also be problematic today...certainly not atypical of
clippers...with a sharp southwest to northeast gradient. Leaned above
guidance along and especially to the south and west of the consensus sfc
low track...i.e. most of central Missouri including KCOU and KJEF. For
roughly the northeastern half of the CWA leaned a bit cooler than guidance
due to more cloud cover...higher likelihood of rain showers...and a more
easterly component to winds which combined are expected to hold temps in
check.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Surface low to continue tracking southeast tonight away from
forecast area. Could still see some showers this evening for
southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Otherwise, lows
will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

On Friday, more vigorous shortwave to drop south across Illinois on
backside of upper low. Could see some showers develop far east, but
confidence is low so kept this area dry for now. This system will
bring in much colder air as the day progresses as well as gusty
north winds. Temperatures will struggle to rise much, depending on
cloud cover. For now have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could reach
highs by midday, then see temps remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours.

Friday night will be the coldest we have seen since mid April. With
the clear skies and winds diminishing, will see lows in the 20s.
Kept freeze watch going for late Friday night/early Saturday
morning.

Temperatures to begin a slow moderation by Sunday as surface ridge
moves off to east and next weather system approaches region. Highs
by Sunday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models are a bit
slower in bringing in precipitation with next system, so only have
slight chance pops for far northern portions of forecast area Sunday
night. Best chances of precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before tapering off by Wednesday. Some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with this system, but expect mostly
showers. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Main focus will be on chances of rain showers through late this
afternoon. Scattered showers may impact terminals beginning later
this morning with continued chances of rain through the afternoon.
Believe best chances of rain showers will be St. Louis metro TAF
sites early/mid afternoon and have tempo to account for this. Rain
should be fairly light coming out of a mid cloud deck and probably
will not result in low ceilings and/or visibility restrictions.
Winds will shift to out of the northwest behind the clipper-like
system this evening and become gusty late tonight/early Friday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Main focus will be on chances of rain showers through late this
afternoon. Scattered showers may impact site as soon as later
this morning with continued chances of rain through the afternoon.
Believe best chance of rain showers will be early/mid afternoon
and have tempo to account for this. Rain should be fairly light
coming out of a mid cloud deck and probably will not result in low
ceilings and/or visibility restrictions. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind the clipper-like system this evening and become
gusty late tonight/early Friday morning.

Gosselin

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 301110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

For this morning, widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm are possible as a shortwave trough moves quickly
through the region. A cold front will also sweep through the area
with this wave, veering winds sharply to the northwest at speeds of
15 to 25 mph, before lessening slightly as the front moves off to
the southeast. Temperatures behind the boundary should not be
immediately colder, and may still reach the mid to even upper 60s
early this afternoon as sunshine returns, but will then fall during
the late afternoon hours as the colder air slowly filters down.

Much colder temperatures are expected for Friday as a surge of cold
Canadian air pushes into the eastern Plains and strong surface high
pressure builds in across the central CONUS. Highs are expected to
top out only in the lower to middle 40s Friday afternoon, making for
a very chilly Halloween throughout the region. Temperatures Friday
night will drop quickly into the lower 30s, and will eventually
bottom out in the mid to upper 20s by early Saturday morning. A
freeze warning has been issued for the entire area, as these cold
temperatures are expected to end the growing season.

A slow warming trend will begin Saturday and continue through early
next week as the eastern trough quickly departs, allowing southerly
flow to return at low levels and ridging to build aloft. The upper-
level ridge will be short-lived as a low pressure system lifts from
the Rockies into North Dakota on Sunday night and Monday, dragging a
slow-moving cold front through our area Monday through Tuesday. A
few showers and isolated storms are possible out ahead of the front
Sunday night, but will become more likely and more widespread on
Monday and Monday night as the boundary sets up across the region.
The highest PoPs have shifted slightly north from previous forecast
issuances, but the heaviest rainfall and best chance for widespread
showers and storms will still be across the southeastern half of the
CWA, especially Monday night.

The front will eventually sink south of the region and settle near
the Gulf by midweek; however, temperatures should be fairly mild in
its wake as the low heads off to the northeast and zonal flow fills
in behind. At this time, no addition precipitation is expected
beyond the departure of the cold front on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Widely scattered light showers will continue to move east southeast
across the region this morning; however, no significant visibility or
ceiling restrictions are expected. Winds will remain around 10 kts
out of the S to SW this morning, then a cold front will sweep through
between 15z and 18z, veering winds to the northwest and increasing
speeds to 15 to 20 kts, with possible higher gusts. Showers should
end behind the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 301107
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A large area of surface high pressure extended from the Great
Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley during the predawn hours.
This high resulted in another chilly night across the eastern
Ozarks with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s. Areas of
western Missouri and southeastern Kansas were 10-15 degrees warmer
as southerly winds increased behind that departing high. Skies
remained clear for most of the night with high clouds just
beginning to increase across central Missouri ahead of an
approaching short wave trough which was located across the Corn
Belt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

That trough will dig southeast and pass across northern Missouri
this afternoon. Despite limited moisture with this trough,
models continue to indicate an impressive amount of lift ahead of
this wave. Good isentropic lift in the lower and mid levels of the
atmosphere will become juxtaposed with strong upper level lift
as our region becomes situated within the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak. Models also continue to advertise steep
mid-level lapse rates with the NAM indicating 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE. With at least marginal instability and plenty of lift
around, we have decided to include a mention of thunder.
Interestingly, increasingly cold mid levels along with initially
dry low levels may lead to graupel potential with some of the
"stronger" updrafts. Temperatures today will be somewhat tricky
given increasing clouds but rather warm 925/850 mb temperatures
ahead of that wave. We have gone fairly close to a MAV/MET blend
which puts most locations well into the 60s with a few low 70s
even possible back towards I-49. One other item to mention today
will be the passage of a cold front this afternoon as surface low
pressure tracks southeast into eastern Missouri. While cold air
advection will initially be lacking behind the front, a period of
brisk west and then northwest winds can be expected.

Any remaining showers will quickly end across the eastern Ozarks
this evening. We will see a period of clearing skies with
lighter northwest winds. A secondary upper level wave will then
quickly move southeast across the region late tonight. This will
lead to another increase in clouds. It is not out of the question
that we could see a patch of drizzle around...especially along the
Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, northerly surface winds will begin to
increase late tonight resulting in increasing cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday then looks downright blustery as brisk northerly winds
continue to usher in a cold Canadian air mass. We should see
some morning cloud cover with an outside shot a patchy drizzle.
Skies should clear quickly but the sun will do very little to
overcome the cold air advection. We have continued the trend of
lowering expected highs on Friday as 850 mb temperatures plunge
below zero Celsius. Most areas will struggle to get out of the
middle 40s.

Surface high pressure will then nose down into the Missouri Ozarks
for Friday night which will set the stage for the end of the
growing season. Models have not backed off on the strength of the
high with a consensus somewhere in the 1032-1034 mb range. With
dew points expected to fall into the upper teens, overnight lows
are expected to fall into the middle 20s over most areas...with
lower 20s a distinct possibility in some locations. A few
locations may actually approach record lows Saturday morning. See
the Climate section below for more details. We have gone ahead and
upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for this time period
given such high confidence in a hard freeze.

Temperatures on Saturday will then remain chilly with many areas
still not reaching the 50 degree mark. Areas out towards I-49
may get there if winds can come around to the southeast by
afternoon. Another frost or freeze will then be possible Saturday
night across the eastern Ozarks as a surface ridge axis is slow to
clear that region. It may not matter much by then given the high
confidence that the growing season will be over.

Sunday will then be a transition day as an upper level ridge
quickly moves east across the Ozarks. Temperatures will rebound
back into the 50s over all areas with southerly winds increasing.

That ridge will then quickly be replaced by southwesterly flow
aloft from Sunday night into Monday. Global models continue to
depict a positively tilted long wave trough setting up from the
northern Plains into the Desert Southwest early next week. Models
also continue to show a developing baroclinic zone from the
southern Great Lakes into the southern Plains. This spells a good
chance for rain and perhaps some thunderstorms from Monday into at
least Tuesday.

Where models are struggling is with the overall fate of that long
wave trough. Most models are showing the energy splitting with a
major piece dropping south into northern Mexico. The remaining
energy and an upper level trough axis are then forecast to slide
southeast into our region sometime in the later Tuesday or
Wednesday time period. The timing and structure of that trough
will be key in driving that baroclinic zone through our area and
eventually ending the threat for rain. If the 00 UTC ECMWF is
correct, the rain threat may not end until later Wednesday. On
the other hand, the GFS has the front clearing the area Tuesday
evening.

Temperatures during the early and middle portion of next week
should be fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, though
winds will be a concern. A short period of LLWS is expected this
morning at JLN, before daytime mixing results in widespread gusty
southwest to west winds at all sites through the day today. Winds
will become northerly tonight behind a cold front, and while
speeds will not be as high as during the day today, a steady
breeze will continue. LLWS will then occur at all sites early
tomorrow morning. Some stratus will also be possible tomorrow
morning, though for now it appears that cloud bases will be high
enough to remain within VFR range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Main focus for today will be clipper-like system coming in from the
mid-Missouri Valley and its associated impacts on the sensible weather.
Models are in fairly good agreement wrt track and timing of this system
with sfc low located just west of KMBY around 1800 UTC to just west of KFAM
around 0000 UTC Friday...quite an unusual track this far southwest
especially given the time of year. Have increased PoPs parallel and to
the ENE of the sfc low track into the low-end likely category which
conceptually matches best with the QPF output from the 0000 UTC
Thursday model run from the ECMWF. Specifically...this paints some likely
PoPs oriented northwest to southeast from near KHAE to NW of KSAR. Amounts
will be fairly light...around a tenth of an inch.

Temperatures will also be problematic today...certainly not atypical of
clippers...with a sharp southwest to northeast gradient. Leaned above
guidance along and especially to the south and west of the consensus sfc
low track...i.e. most of central Missouri including KCOU and KJEF. For
roughly the northeastern half of the CWA leaned a bit cooler than guidance
due to more cloud cover...higher likelihood of rain showers...and a more
easterly component to winds which combined are expected to hold temps in
check.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Surface low to continue tracking southeast tonight away from
forecast area. Could still see some showers this evening for
southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Otherwise, lows
will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

On Friday, more vigorous shortwave to drop south across Illinois on
backside of upper low. Could see some showers develop far east, but
confidence is low so kept this area dry for now. This system will
bring in much colder air as the day progresses as well as gusty
north winds. Temperatures will struggle to rise much, depending on
cloud cover. For now have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Could reach
highs by midday, then see temps remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours.

Friday night will be the coldest we have seen since mid April. With
the clear skies and winds diminishing, will see lows in the 20s.
Kept freeze watch going for late Friday night/early Saturday
morning.

Temperatures to begin a slow moderation by Sunday as surface ridge
moves off to east and next weather system approaches region. Highs
by Sunday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Models are a bit
slower in bringing in precipitation with next system, so only have
slight chance pops for far northern portions of forecast area Sunday
night. Best chances of precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before tapering off by Wednesday. Some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with this system, but expect mostly
showers. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Next shortwave and low pressure appears on track, although models,
specifically HRRR, is a bit more robust and faster with possible
precipitaton. Have moved up clouds and VCSH about an hour, and
introduced to COU as HRRR has precipitaton futher west. Guidance
holds in clouds until about 12z Friday, so will keep VFR clouds in
for now, althought the NAM guidance tries to bring in MVFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Generally increasing VFR clouds with a VCSH as
the clipper type system moves through Thursday. Nam guidance
brings in MRF clouds late in the period. MVFR to IFR clouds in
Canada, but will hold off for now and stick with the GFD VFR
forecast.

JPK
&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 300832
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A large area of surface high pressure extended from the Great
Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley during the predawn hours.
This high resulted in another chilly night across the eastern
Ozarks with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s. Areas of
western Missouri and southeastern Kansas were 10-15 degrees warmer
as southerly winds increased behind that departing high. Skies
remained clear for most of the night with high clouds just
beginning to increase across central Missouri ahead of an
approaching short wave trough which was located across the Corn
Belt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

That trough will dig southeast and pass across northern Missouri
this afternoon. Despite limited moisture with this trough,
models continue to indicate an impressive amount of lift ahead of
this wave. Good isentropic lift in the lower and mid levels of the
atmosphere will become juxtaposed with strong upper level lift
as our region becomes situated within the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak. Models also continue to advertise steep
mid-level lapse rates with the NAM indicating 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE. With at least marginal instability and plenty of lift
around, we have decided to include a mention of thunder.
Interestingly, increasingly cold mid levels along with initially
dry low levels may lead to graupel potential with some of the
"stronger" updrafts. Temperatures today will be somewhat tricky
given increasing clouds but rather warm 925/850 mb temperatures
ahead of that wave. We have gone fairly close to a MAV/MET blend
which puts most locations well into the 60s with a few low 70s
even possible back towards I-49. One other item to mention today
will be the passage of a cold front this afternoon as surface low
pressure tracks southeast into eastern Missouri. While cold air
advection will initially be lacking behind the front, a period of
brisk west and then northwest winds can be expected.

Any remaining showers will quickly end across the eastern Ozarks
this evening. We will see a period of clearing skies with
lighter northwest winds. A secondary upper level wave will then
quickly move southeast across the region late tonight. This will
lead to another increase in clouds. It is not out of the question
that we could see a patch of drizzle around...especially along the
Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, northerly surface winds will begin to
increase late tonight resulting in increasing cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday then looks downright blustery as brisk northerly winds
continue to usher in a cold Canadian air mass. We should see
some morning cloud cover with an outside shot a patchy drizzle.
Skies should clear quickly but the sun will do very little to
overcome the cold air advection. We have continued the trend of
lowering expected highs on Friday as 850 mb temperatures plunge
below zero Celsius. Most areas will struggle to get out of the
middle 40s.

Surface high pressure will then nose down into the Missouri Ozarks
for Friday night which will set the stage for the end of the
growing season. Models have not backed off on the strength of the
high with a consensus somewhere in the 1032-1034 mb range. With
dew points expected to fall into the upper teens, overnight lows
are expected to fall into the middle 20s over most areas...with
lower 20s a distinct possibility in some locations. A few
locations may actually approach record lows Saturday morning. See
the Climate section below for more details. We have gone ahead and
upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for this time period
given such high confidence in a hard freeze.

Temperatures on Saturday will then remain chilly with many areas
still not reaching the 50 degree mark. Areas out towards I-49
may get there if winds can come around to the southeast by
afternoon. Another frost or freeze will then be possible Saturday
night across the eastern Ozarks as a surface ridge axis is slow to
clear that region. It may not matter much by then given the high
confidence that the growing season will be over.

Sunday will then be a transition day as an upper level ridge
quickly moves east across the Ozarks. Temperatures will rebound
back into the 50s over all areas with southerly winds increasing.

That ridge will then quickly be replaced by southwesterly flow
aloft from Sunday night into Monday. Global models continue to
depict a positively tilted long wave trough setting up from the
northern Plains into the Desert Southwest early next week. Models
also continue to show a developing baroclinic zone from the
southern Great Lakes into the southern Plains. This spells a good
chance for rain and perhaps some thunderstorms from Monday into at
least Tuesday.

Where models are struggling is with the overall fate of that long
wave trough. Most models are showing the energy splitting with a
major piece dropping south into northern Mexico. The remaining
energy and an upper level trough axis are then forecast to slide
southeast into our region sometime in the later Tuesday or
Wednesday time period. The timing and structure of that trough
will be key in driving that baroclinic zone through our area and
eventually ending the threat for rain. If the 00 UTC ECMWF is
correct, the rain threat may not end until later Wednesday. On
the other hand, the GFS has the front clearing the area Tuesday
evening.

Temperatures during the early and middle portion of next week
should be fairly close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight into
Thursday. Surface high pressure will shift east of the area
overnight allowing winds to shift to the south by morning.

A dry cold front will approach from the west Thursday resulting
increasing southwesterly winds at the surface. Winds will shift to
the west and northwest during the afternoon following the frontal
passage.

Expect broken mid to upper level deck of clouds on Thursday and
perhaps a few sprinkles.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster
CLIMATE...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KEAX 300820
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

For this morning, widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm are possible as a shortwave trough moves quickly
through the region. A cold front will also sweep through the area
with this wave, veering winds sharply to the northwest at speeds of
15 to 25 mph, before lessening slightly as the front moves off to
the southeast. Temperatures behind the boundary should not be
immediately colder, and may still reach the mid to even upper 60s
early this afternoon as sunshine returns, but will then fall during
the late afternoon hours as the colder air slowly filters down.

Much colder temperatures are expected for Friday as a surge of cold
Canadian air pushes into the eastern Plains and strong surface high
pressure builds in across the central CONUS. Highs are expected to
top out only in the lower to middle 40s Friday afternoon, making for
a very chilly Halloween throughout the region. Temperatures Friday
night will drop quickly into the lower 30s, and will eventually
bottom out in the mid to upper 20s by early Saturday morning. A
freeze warning has been issued for the entire area, as these cold
temperatures are expected to end the growing season.

A slow warming trend will begin Saturday and continue through early
next week as the eastern trough quickly departs, allowing southerly
flow to return at low levels and ridging to build aloft. The upper-
level ridge will be short-lived as a low pressure system lifts from
the Rockies into North Dakota on Sunday night and Monday, dragging a
slow-moving cold front through our area Monday through Tuesday. A
few showers and isolated storms are possible out ahead of the front
Sunday night, but will become more likely and more widespread on
Monday and Monday night as the boundary sets up across the region.
The highest PoPs have shifted slightly north from previous forecast
issuances, but the heaviest rainfall and best chance for widespread
showers and storms will still be across the southeastern half of the
CWA, especially Monday night.

The front will eventually sink south of the region and settle near
the Gulf by midweek; however, temperatures should be fairly mild in
its wake as the low heads off to the northeast and zonal flow fills
in behind. At this time, no addition precipitation is expected
beyond the departure of the cold front on Tuesday or Tuesday night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Southwest winds will increase to around 40 kts at 500-1000 ft AGL,
resulting in a period of low-level wind shear between 09z and 13z
while surface winds remain light southeasterly. A few light rain
showers are possible around 15z-18z, but should not significantly
reduce visibility, and ceilings should remain around 10 kft. A cold
front will move through the TAF sites around 18z, veering winds
sharply to the northwest at speeds around 15 to 20 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KEAX 300555
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Over the next 7 days, the main concerns will be cold temperatures
and the resulting potential for frost/freeze on several mornings,
and rain/storm chances early next week.

This morning will start out with brisk high pressure over the area
and many locations in northern MO dropping to the mid to upper 30s;
then, cooler air will continue to trickle down into the region this
afternoon, resulting in high temperatures a few additional degrees
below yesterday`s highs -- mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly flow will then briefly return for tonight and part of
Thursday, resulting in the warmest temperatures of the next 7 days
in the 60s to near 70 Thursday afternoon. A few isolated showers are
still possible, and may become slightly more widespread from west to
east as a shortwave trough moves through tomorrow, but nominal
rainfall amounts are expected and PoPs remain low.

Behind Thursday`s shortwave trough, a much deeper trough will sink
from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region from Thursday night
through Friday. The track of this system has come progressively
further to the west in the last few model runs, and will usher the
coldest air of the season into the CWA for Friday and Friday night.
Have lowered Friday morning`s highs by several degrees and added a
mention of patchy frost in our north, but the biggest reduction in
forecast temperatures was to Friday afternoon`s highs and Saturday
morning`s lows. All models bring a broad area of high pressure into
the central CONUS as 850 hPa temperatures drop into the -2 to -7
degree range on Friday, making any diurnal warming very difficult.
Have dropped highs into the 40s CWA-wide for Friday, and may need to
trend even a touch colder if models continue to head this direction.
Lows for Friday night into Saturday morning now look solidly in the
20s to at most 30 degrees, and will likely result in the first hard
freeze of the year throughout the forecast area.

As the trough pushes east, temperatures will gradually warm for the
rest of the weekend and into next week, but will be modulated by
rain chances Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system will lift out
of the Rockies on Sunday and will lift into North Dakota by Monday,
dragging a slow-moving cold front through the CWA Monday through at
least Tuesday morning. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
become possible ahead of the system on Sunday night, and will become
more likely along the boundary on Monday. General model consensus is
now for the base of that trough to cut off over the desert southwest
and linger there through the end of the forecast period while the
surface front stalls over southern Missouri, but this is a deviation
from yesterday`s more progressive solutions, so the forecast becomes
more unclear for Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Southwest winds will increase to around 40 kts at 500-1000 ft AGL,
resulting in a period of low-level wind shear between 09z and 13z
while surface winds remain light southeasterly. A few light rain
showers are possible around 15z-18z, but should not significantly
reduce visibility, and ceilings should remain around 10 kft. A cold
front will move through the TAF sites around 18z, veering winds
sharply to the northwest at speeds around 15 to 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 300445
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure was currently making its way southeastward
through the central plains at mid afternoon.  This high is expected
to settle over the area tonight bringing clear skies and light winds
allowing for some good radiational cooling.  Am concerned that with
lows falling into the mid 30s over the eastern Ozarks...could see
some patchy frost in low-lying areas.

An upper level ridge begins to build over the Rockies on Thursday
while a Pacific impulse moves over the ridge and begins to drop
southeastward.  With only limited moisture with which to work...will
only mention a slight chance of measurable rain over central
Missouri on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the ridge continues to build on Friday...a short wave will drop
out of Canada into the Great Lakes region bringing with it a shot of
cold Canadian air. Model runs over the last few days have tended to
sharpen up the ridge over the Rockies which in turn has tended to
pull the colder air further west.  At present...this air mass looks
capable of ending the growing season across the Ozarks on Saturday
morning.  As such...will issue a freeze watch for the area as lows
Saturday could easily reach the mid 20s.

The upper level ridge then moves over the area during the weekend
which will moderate temperatures back to more seasonable levels.
By Monday...a long wave trough and associated surface front will
begin to make their way eastward out of the Rockies. With a
surface high situated over the southeastern states...will begin to
see a return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain chances will begin to increase Sunday night into Monday.  With
the surface front roughly parallel to the upper level flow...the
cold front will be slow to transit the area.  Therefore...we could
see a period of off and on rainfall through the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures during this period are expected to be near seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight into
Thursday. Surface high pressure will shift east of the area
overnight allowing winds to shift to the south by morning.

A dry cold front will approach from the west Thursday resulting
increasing southwesterly winds at the surface. Winds will shift to
the west and northwest during the afternoon following the frontal
passage.

Expect broken mid to upper level deck of clouds on Thursday and
perhaps a few sprinkles.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300337
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1037 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Lowered mins a few degrees esp for the ern Ozarks and upped the
frost wording from patchy to areas. Toyed with issuing a frost
advy earlier this evng...but decided against it based on limited
window. Also backed off on approaching mid/high cloud cover
overnight which favors the cooler temps across the ern Ozarks.
Didn`t adjust other areas as much due to the expected cloud cover
arriving prior to sunrise and winds picking up from the south as
well. Increased PoPs for tomorrow...esp during the aftn and mainly
for areas from the STL metro and to the S and E. Precip appears to
dvlp/fill in over the CWA during the day with the best coverage
during the aftn across SE MO and sthrn IL.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Another cold night as surface ridge centered over western MO shifts
southeastward through our forecast area.  There will likely be
patchy light frost late tonight, especially across southeast MO and
southwest IL where the sky will be mostly clear and the surface wind
light.  Mid-high level clouds will be spreading into northeast and
central portions of MO late tonight due to increasing low-mid level
warm air advection ahead of an approaching northwest flow shortwave.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Scattered showers are expected to develop and shift southeastward
through our forecast area Thursday into Thursday evening ahead of
the shortwave and an associated weak surface low.  Much colder air
will advect southeastward into the region Thursday night and Friday
as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region, and as
a large and strong surface ridge builds southeastward into our area
from the northern Plains.  Strong cold air advection and gusty
surface winds can be expected on Friday with highs only in the 40s
across most of our forecast area.  The models drop the -8 degree C
850 mb isotherm southward to near the STL area on Friday.  The
coldest temperatures are expected Friday night as the sky clears out
and the surface wind diminishes with the surface ridge axis across
northeast and central MO by 12z Saturday.  Will issue a freeze watch
for late Friday night and early Saturday morning with lows in the
20s expected across most of our forecast area.  A warming trend will
begin on Sunday as an upper level ridge moves eastward across the
region, and the surface/low level winds become s/swly as the
surface/850 mb ridge shifts southeast of our area.  There will be a
chance of precipitation Monday through Tuesday or Tuesday night as
an upper level trough approaches and a cold front moves slowly
southeastward through the region.  The GFS is a little more
progressive with the upper level trough and associated cold front
versus the ECMWF model, and shifts the precipitation southeast of
our forecast area by Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Next shortwave and low pressure appears on track, although models,
specifically HRRR, is a bit more robust and faster with possible
precipitaton. Have moved up clouds and VCSH about an hour, and
introduced to COU as HRRR has precipitaton futher west. Guidance
holds in clouds until about 12z Friday, so will keep VFR clouds in
for now, althought the NAM guidance tries to bring in MVFR.

Specifics for KSTL: Generally increasing VFR clouds with a VCSH as
the clipper type system moves through Thursday. Nam guidance
brings in MRF clouds late in the period. MVFR to IFR clouds in
Canada, but will hold off for now and stick with the GFD VFR
forecast.

JPK

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 300248
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
948 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Lowered mins a few degrees esp for the ern Ozarks and upped the
frost wording from patchy to areas. Toyed with issuing a frost
advy earlier this evng...but decided against it based on limited
window. Also backed off on approaching mid/high cloud cover
overnight which favors the cooler temps across the ern Ozarks.
Didn`t adjust other areas as much due to the expected cloud cover
arriving prior to sunrise and winds picking up from the south as
well. Increased PoPs for tomorrow...esp during the aftn and mainly
for areas from the STL metro and to the S and E. Precip appears to
dvlp/fill in over the CWA during the day with the best coverage
during the aftn across SE MO and sthrn IL.

2%

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Another cold night as surface ridge centered over western MO shifts
southeastward through our forecast area.  There will likely be
patchy light frost late tonight, especially across southeast MO and
southwest IL where the sky will be mostly clear and the surface wind
light.  Mid-high level clouds will be spreading into northeast and
central portions of MO late tonight due to increasing low-mid level
warm air advection ahead of an approaching northwest flow shortwave.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Scattered showers are expected to develop and shift southeastward
through our forecast area Thursday into Thursday evening ahead of
the shortwave and an associated weak surface low.  Much colder air
will advect southeastward into the region Thursday night and Friday
as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region, and as
a large and strong surface ridge builds southeastward into our area
from the northern Plains.  Strong cold air advection and gusty
surface winds can be expected on Friday with highs only in the 40s
across most of our forecast area.  The models drop the -8 degree C
850 mb isotherm southward to near the STL area on Friday.  The
coldest temperatures are expected Friday night as the sky clears out
and the surface wind diminishes with the surface ridge axis across
northeast and central MO by 12z Saturday.  Will issue a freeze watch
for late Friday night and early Saturday morning with lows in the
20s expected across most of our forecast area.  A warming trend will
begin on Sunday as an upper level ridge moves eastward across the
region, and the surface/low level winds become s/swly as the
surface/850 mb ridge shifts southeast of our area.  There will be a
chance of precipitation Monday through Tuesday or Tuesday night as
an upper level trough approaches and a cold front moves slowly
southeastward through the region.  The GFS is a little more
progressive with the upper level trough and associated cold front
versus the ECMWF model, and shifts the precipitation southeast of
our forecast area by Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 518 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

High pressure settles over MO tonight producing a clear sky with
light and variable wind. Clipper system moves through quickly
Thursday. Morning southeast wind will transition to northwest
by evening as the low pressure moves southeast across the area.
Given the poor track record of precipitation with clipper type
systems will include VCSH to cover the low precipitation chances.

Specifics for KSTL: Light and variable wind tonight becoming SE
Thursday morning. Mid clouds move in during the afternoon with a
few showers possible. VCSH was introduced and see no reason to
take it out. Wind becomes NW by 03z.

JPK

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 292348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
648 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Over the next 7 days, the main concerns will be cold temperatures
and the resulting potential for frost/freeze on several mornings,
and rain/storm chances early next week.

This morning will start out with brisk high pressure over the area
and many locations in northern MO dropping to the mid to upper 30s;
then, cooler air will continue to trickle down into the region this
afternoon, resulting in high temperatures a few additional degrees
below yesterday`s highs -- mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly flow will then briefly return for tonight and part of
Thursday, resulting in the warmest temperatures of the next 7 days
in the 60s to near 70 Thursday afternoon. A few isolated showers are
still possible, and may become slightly more widespread from west to
east as a shortwave trough moves through tomorrow, but nominal
rainfall amounts are expected and PoPs remain low.

Behind Thursday`s shortwave trough, a much deeper trough will sink
from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region from Thursday night
through Friday. The track of this system has come progressively
further to the west in the last few model runs, and will usher the
coldest air of the season into the CWA for Friday and Friday night.
Have lowered Friday morning`s highs by several degrees and added a
mention of patchy frost in our north, but the biggest reduction in
forecast temperatures was to Friday afternoon`s highs and Saturday
morning`s lows. All models bring a broad area of high pressure into
the central CONUS as 850 hPa temperatures drop into the -2 to -7
degree range on Friday, making any diurnal warming very difficult.
Have dropped highs into the 40s CWA-wide for Friday, and may need to
trend even a touch colder if models continue to head this direction.
Lows for Friday night into Saturday morning now look solidly in the
20s to at most 30 degrees, and will likely result in the first hard
freeze of the year throughout the forecast area.

As the trough pushes east, temperatures will gradually warm for the
rest of the weekend and into next week, but will be modulated by
rain chances Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system will lift out
of the Rockies on Sunday and will lift into North Dakota by Monday,
dragging a slow-moving cold front through the CWA Monday through at
least Tuesday morning. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
become possible ahead of the system on Sunday night, and will become
more likely along the boundary on Monday. General model consensus is
now for the base of that trough to cut off over the desert southwest
and linger there through the end of the forecast period while the
surface front stalls over southern Missouri, but this is a deviation
from yesterday`s more progressive solutions, so the forecast becomes
more unclear for Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as the only clouds
due to move through will be in the 10,000 foot range. Otherwise,
expect the wind to remain light through the evening hours with wind
speeds picking up and turning to south and southwest early Thursday
morning. This may also bring the onset of low level wind shear.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292324
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure was currently making its way southeastward
through the central plains at mid afternoon.  This high is expected
to settle over the area tonight bringing clear skies and light winds
allowing for some good radiational cooling.  Am concerned that with
lows falling into the mid 30s over the eastern Ozarks...could see
some patchy frost in low-lying areas.

An upper level ridge begins to build over the Rockies on Thursday
while a Pacific impulse moves over the ridge and begins to drop
southeastward.  With only limited moisture with which to work...will
only mention a slight chance of measurable rain over central
Missouri on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the ridge continues to build on Friday...a short wave will drop
out of Canada into the Great Lakes region bringing with it a shot of
cold Canadian air. Model runs over the last few days have tended to
sharpen up the ridge over the Rockies which in turn has tended to
pull the colder air further west.  At present...this air mass looks
capable of ending the growing season across the Ozarks on Saturday
morning.  As such...will issue a freeze watch for the area as lows
Saturday could easily reach the mid 20s.

The upper level ridge then moves over the area during the weekend
which will moderate temperatures back to more seasonable levels.
By Monday...a long wave trough and associated surface front will
begin to make their way eastward out of the Rockies. With a
surface high situated over the southeastern states...will begin to
see a return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain chances will begin to increase Sunday night into Monday.  With
the surface front roughly parallel to the upper level flow...the
cold front will be slow to transit the area.  Therefore...we could
see a period of off and on rainfall through the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures during this period are expected to be near seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight into
Thursday. Surface high pressure will shift east of the area
overnight allowing winds to shift to the south by morning.

A primarily dry cold front will approach from the west Thursday
resulting increasing southwesterly winds at the surface. Winds
will shift to the west and northwest during the afternoon
following the frontal passage.

Expect broken mid to upper level of clouds on Thursday and perhaps
a few sprinkles.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KLSX 292224
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
524 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Another cold night as surface ridge centered over western MO shifts
southeastward through our forecast area.  There will likely be
patchy light frost late tonight, especially across southeast MO and
southwest IL where the sky will be mostly clear and the surface wind
light.  Mid-high level clouds will be spreading into northeast and
central portions of MO late tonight due to increasing low-mid level
warm air advection ahead of an approaching northwest flow shortwave.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Scattered showers are expected to develop and shift southeastward
through our forecast area Thursday into Thursday evening ahead of
the shortwave and an associated weak surface low.  Much colder air
will advect southeastward into the region Thursday night and Friday
as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region, and as
a large and strong surface ridge builds southeastward into our area
from the northern Plains.  Strong cold air advection and gusty
surface winds can be expected on Friday with highs only in the 40s
across most of our forecast area.  The models drop the -8 degree C
850 mb isotherm southward to near the STL area on Friday.  The
coldest temperatures are expected Friday night as the sky clears out
and the surface wind diminishes with the surface ridge axis across
northeast and central MO by 12z Saturday.  Will issue a freeze watch
for late Friday night and early Saturday morning with lows in the
20s expected across most of our forecast area.  A warming trend will
begin on Sunday as an upper level ridge moves eastard across the
region, and the surface/low level winds become s/swly as the
surface/850 mb ridge shifts southeast of our area.  There will be a
chance of precipitation Monday through Tuesday or Tuesday night as
an upper level trough approaches and a cold front moves slowly
southeastward through the region.  The GFS is a little more
progressive with the upper level trough and associated cold front
versus the ECMWF model, and shifts the precipitation southeast of
our forecast area by Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 518 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

High pressure settles over MO tonight producing a clear sky with
light and variable wind. Clipper system moves through quickly
Thursday. Morning southeast wind will transition to northwest
by evening as the low pressure moves southeast across the area.
Given the poor track record of precipitation with clipper type
systems will include VCSH to cover the low precipitation chances.

Specifics for KSTL: Light and variable wind tonight becoming SE
Thursday moring. Mid clouds move in during the afternoon with a
few showers possible. VCSH was introduced and see no reason to
take it out. Wind becomes NW by 03z.

JPK

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 292016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Another cold night as surface ridge centered over western MO shifts
southeastward through our forecast area.  There will likely be
patchy light frost late tonight, especially across southeast MO and
southwest IL where the sky will be mostly clear and the surface wind
light.  Mid-high level clouds will be spreading into northeast and
central portions of MO late tonight due to increasing low-mid level
warm air advection ahead of an approaching northwest flow shortwave.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Scattered showers are expected to develop and shift southeastward
through our forecast area Thursday into Thursday evening ahead of
the shortwave and an associated weak surface low.  Much colder air
will advect southeastward into the region Thursday night and Friday
as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region, and as
a large and strong surface ridge builds southeastward into our area
from the northern Plains.  Strong cold air advection and gusty
surface winds can be expected on Friday with highs only in the 40s
across most of our forecast area.  The models drop the -8 degree C
850 mb isotherm southward to near the STL area on Friday.  The
coldest temperatures are expected Friday night as the sky clears out
and the surface wind diminishes with the surface ridge axis across
northeast and central MO by 12z Saturday.  Will issue a freeze watch
for late Friday night and early Saturday morning with lows in the
20s expected across most of our forecast area.  A warming trend will
begin on Sunday as an upper level ridge moves eastard across the
region, and the surface/low level winds become s/swly as the
surface/850 mb ridge shifts southeast of our area.  There will be a
chance of precipitation Monday through Tuesday or Tuesday night as
an upper level trough approaches and a cold front moves slowly
southeastward through the region.  The GFS is a little more
progressive with the upper level trough and associated cold front
versus the ECMWF model, and shifts the precipitation southeast of
our forecast area by Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as surface high pressure moves
into the region. A weak disturbance will bring an increase in mid
level cloud cover late tonight and through the day on Thursday. A
few showers or sprinkles will be possible across the area, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected to continue. Mid level cloud cover will
increase tomorrow with a threat of a shower or sprinkle in the
late afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 292016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Another cold night as surface ridge centered over western MO shifts
southeastward through our forecast area.  There will likely be
patchy light frost late tonight, especially across southeast MO and
southwest IL where the sky will be mostly clear and the surface wind
light.  Mid-high level clouds will be spreading into northeast and
central portions of MO late tonight due to increasing low-mid level
warm air advection ahead of an approaching northwest flow shortwave.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Scattered showers are expected to develop and shift southeastward
through our forecast area Thursday into Thursday evening ahead of
the shortwave and an associated weak surface low.  Much colder air
will advect southeastward into the region Thursday night and Friday
as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region, and as
a large and strong surface ridge builds southeastward into our area
from the northern Plains.  Strong cold air advection and gusty
surface winds can be expected on Friday with highs only in the 40s
across most of our forecast area.  The models drop the -8 degree C
850 mb isotherm southward to near the STL area on Friday.  The
coldest temperatures are expected Friday night as the sky clears out
and the surface wind diminishes with the surface ridge axis across
northeast and central MO by 12z Saturday.  Will issue a freeze watch
for late Friday night and early Saturday morning with lows in the
20s expected across most of our forecast area.  A warming trend will
begin on Sunday as an upper level ridge moves eastard across the
region, and the surface/low level winds become s/swly as the
surface/850 mb ridge shifts southeast of our area.  There will be a
chance of precipitation Monday through Tuesday or Tuesday night as
an upper level trough approaches and a cold front moves slowly
southeastward through the region.  The GFS is a little more
progressive with the upper level trough and associated cold front
versus the ECMWF model, and shifts the precipitation southeast of
our forecast area by Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as surface high pressure moves
into the region. A weak disturbance will bring an increase in mid
level cloud cover late tonight and through the day on Thursday. A
few showers or sprinkles will be possible across the area, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected to continue. Mid level cloud cover will
increase tomorrow with a threat of a shower or sprinkle in the
late afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 292006
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Surface high pressure was currently making its way southeastward
through the central plains at mid afternoon.  This high is expected
to settle over the area tonight bringing clear skies and light winds
allowing for some good radiational cooling.  Am concerned that with
lows falling into the mid 30s over the eastern Ozarks...could see
some patchy frost in low-lying areas.

An upper level ridge begins to build over the Rockies on Thursday
while a Pacific impulse moves over the ridge and begins to drop
southeastward.  With only limited moisture with which to work...will
only mention a slight chance of measurable rain over central
Missouri on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As the ridge continues to build on Friday...a short wave will drop
out of Canada into the Great Lakes region bringing with it a shot of
cold Canadian air. Model runs over the last few days have tended to
sharpen up the ridge over the Rockies which in turn has tended to
pull the colder air further west.  At present...this air mass looks
capable of ending the growing season across the Ozarks on Saturday
morning.  As such...will issue a freeze watch for the area as lows
Saturday could easily reach the mid 20s.

The upper level ridge then moves over the area during the weekend
which will moderate temperatures back to more seasonable levels.
By Monday...a long wave trough and associated surface front will
begin to make their way eastward out of the Rockies. With a
surface high situated over the southeastern states...will begin to
see a return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain chances will begin to increase Sunday night into Monday.  With
the surface front roughly parallel to the upper level flow...the
cold front will be slow to transit the area.  Therefore...we could
see a period of off and on rainfall through the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures during this period are expected to be near seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 943 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region through midday Thursday. Winds will be
light and variable through this evening...then switching to a
light southerly by Thursday morning. Skies will be mostly clear
with high and mid level cloudiness moving in by Thursday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday morning FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 291741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Surface high pressure will slowly slide southeastward into central
Missouri by late afternoon today helping yield sunny skies and light
winds. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s
to the low 60s from north to south...or about 5 degrees below normal
for late October. These numbers generally are close to the MAV guidance
which has greatly outperformed the MET over the past couple of weeks
when mostly sunny skies have been observed.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move off to the east tonight allowing
southerly winds to return to the region. Clouds will be on the
increase ahead of next weather system, but clear skies and light
south winds over southeast MO will allow for some patchy frost to
develop in this area towards daybreak. As for low temps, will be in
the mid to upper 30s.

Next weather system to slide through region on Thursday. Will see an
increase in cloud cover and a chance of some showers, with best
chances to the northeast of the surface low track and lingering over
far eastern portions of forecast area past 00z Friday. So added
slight chance pops in this area through 06z Friday. Temperatures
hard to pin down. For now have highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s
with lows Thursday night in the mid to upper 30s.

A stronger shortwave to drop south across Illinois late Thursday
night/Friday, so could see some additional showers develop over far
eastern portions of forecast area. For now kept this area dry, but
will need to keep an eye out. This shortwave will bring in much
colder air to the region and will see steady or slowly falling temps
during the afternoon on Friday. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low
50s early in the day.

Majority of forecast area to drop below freezing Friday night with
lows in the mid to upper 20s most locations. Will keep mention in
HWO.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by late Saturday allowing
temperatures to moderate rather quickly. So by Sunday highs will be
in the low to mid 50s.

Beyond that the extended models have the next significant weather
system approaching the region by Sunday night with precipitation
developing and spreading across the entire area by Monday and
persisting through Tuesday. Temperatures to remain just below normal
in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as surface high pressure moves
into the region. A weak disturbance will bring an increase in mid
level cloud cover late tonight and through the day on Thursday. A
few showers or sprinkles will be possible across the area, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected to continue. Mid level cloud cover will
increase tomorrow with a threat of a shower or sprinkle in the
late afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Tonight)

Great weather for outdoor activities was observed across much of Missouri
over the course of the afternoon.

Rising mid level heights were ongoing in response to a shortwave ridge
of high pressure translating across the Corn Belt and northern Plains.
Your evening forecast looks chilly with temperatures quickly dropping
all the way into the 40s by 7pm. Winds through the evening will be
light and from the southeast, with speeds ranging from 0 - 5 mph.
Sky conditions will remain clear, with increasing clouds after 10pm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

With a cold front quickly approaching from the west, some indications
in the models suggest isolated sprinkles or a showers mainly along or
north of I-70 Thursday morning. Most areas should remain dry.

Winds will shift to the northwest tomorrow, causing dry air to spread
over the Lower Missouri River Valley. Temperatures trend lower the
rest of the week with highs only in the 40s on Friday. A strengthening
long wave trough amplifies the upper pattern, forcing a Canadian high
directly into northern Missouri Saturday morning.

Skies will be clear and winds will be light, causing temperatures to
ease well into the 20s Saturday morning. These temperatures will be
ripe for ending the growing season for 2014. Future shifts will be
investigating the need for a Freeze Warning. The dry weather will
extend through Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms returning
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)

VFR conditions will continue for pilots flying in and out of the
area. Light and variable wind will become light southerly winds late
this evening. Skies will generally be mostly clear with high
clouds moving in by Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291603
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As of 3 AM...a large area of surface high pressure was situated
from  southern Nebraska into northern Oklahoma. Clear skies and
light winds prevailed across the region with early morning
temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. There
is likely some patchy frost out there in protected valleys.

That high pressure will slowly slide southeast today resulting in
sunny skies and light winds. High temperatures will range from
near 60 degrees around Lake of the Ozarks to the upper 60s over far
southwestern Missouri. These temperatures are just a few degrees
below normal for this time of year.

The axis of that high will then slide slowly southeast across the
Missouri Ozarks tonight. Our confidence has increased in patchy
frost potential overnight across the eastern Ozarks given light
winds and expected low temperatures in the mid 30s. We will still
have to watch for late night increasing clouds as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, areas back
towards I-49 will see slightly warmer temperatures as light
southerly winds kick in behind that ridge axis. Thus, there are no
frost concerns at this time across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

That upper level disturbance will dig southeast across
northeastern Missouri during the day on Thursday. Moisture will
be very limited with this disturbance. What will not be limited is
lift. The digging nature of this system along with our area
becoming positioned within the left exit region of an upper
level jet streak will really boost mid/upper level lift.
Additionally, strong isentropic upglide will be present in the mid
levels along with marginal amounts of instability. We therefore
expect isolated to widely scattered shower activity with the
greatest potential for showers along and east of the U.S. 65
corridor. If the NAM is correct in advertising 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE, we could even see a rogue lightning strike or two. We have
opted against a mention of thunder for now but will pass this
concern onto future shifts.

That passing upper level disturbance will also have a surface cold
front associated with it. The air mass behind this front will
mean business as models bring a 1036-1038 mb surface high into
North Dakota Thursday night. Strong cold air advection will ramp
up across our neck of the woods from later Thursday night through
Friday as that surface high slides into the western Great Lakes
and Corn Belt. Friday looks downright blustery with brisk north
winds and increasing confidence that temperatures may not warm out
of the 40s.

While we are still several days out, almost all models are
painting a nearly perfect setup for an end to the growing season
Friday night. A surface ridge axis is forecast to extend from the
Great Lakes right through the heart of the Missouri Ozarks by 12
UTC on Saturday. With the parent surface high still progged to be
in the 1032-1034 mb range, temperatures should easily fall into
the 20s. We have lowered expected lows Friday night into the
middle 20s nearly area wide...which is very close to the 00 UTC
MEX numbers. If models continue to support this trend, a Freeze
Watch and eventual Freeze Warning almost seem inevitable.

Saturday will then be a chilly day across the region with highs
once again struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. We could then
see another frost or freeze Saturday night across the eastern
Ozarks depending on the position of that surface ridge axis. An
upper level ridge axis will then slide east across the region on
Sunday resulting in a dry day and temperatures rebounding into the
50s.

That ridge will be quick to move east of the area by Monday with
upper level southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Global
models continue to depict a positively tilted long wave trough
initially setting up from the northern Plains into the Desert
Southwest Monday and Tuesday. As this happens, models strengthen a
baroclinic zone from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains.
Given the positive tilt of the trough, it is quite possible that
this baroclinic zone is slow to clear the area. We are therefore
looking at the potential for widespread precipitation for at least
a couple of days early next week...if not even longer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 943 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region through midday Thursday. Winds will be
light and variable through this evening...then switching to a
light southerly by Thursday morning. Skies will be mostly clear
with high and mid level cloudiness moving in by Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291137
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As of 3 AM...a large area of surface high pressure was situated
from  southern Nebraska into northern Oklahoma. Clear skies and
light winds prevailed across the region with early morning
temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. There
is likely some patchy frost out there in protected valleys.

That high pressure will slowly slide southeast today resulting in
sunny skies and light winds. High temperatures will range from
near 60 degrees around Lake of the Ozarks to the upper 60s over far
southwestern Missouri. These temperatures are just a few degrees
below normal for this time of year.

The axis of that high will then slide slowly southeast across the
Missouri Ozarks tonight. Our confidence has increased in patchy
frost potential overnight across the eastern Ozarks given light
winds and expected low temperatures in the mid 30s. We will still
have to watch for late night increasing clouds as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, areas back
towards I-49 will see slightly warmer temperatures as light
southerly winds kick in behind that ridge axis. Thus, there are no
frost concerns at this time across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

That upper level disturbance will dig southeast across
northeastern Missouri during the day on Thursday. Moisture will
be very limited with this disturbance. What will not be limited is
lift. The digging nature of this system along with our area
becoming positioned within the left exit region of an upper
level jet streak will really boost mid/upper level lift.
Additionally, strong isentropic upglide will be present in the mid
levels along with marginal amounts of instability. We therefore
expect isolated to widely scattered shower activity with the
greatest potential for showers along and east of the U.S. 65
corridor. If the NAM is correct in advertising 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE, we could even see a rogue lightning strike or two. We have
opted against a mention of thunder for now but will pass this
concern onto future shifts.

That passing upper level disturbance will also have a surface cold
front associated with it. The air mass behind this front will
mean business as models bring a 1036-1038 mb surface high into
North Dakota Thursday night. Strong cold air advection will ramp
up across our neck of the woods from later Thursday night through
Friday as that surface high slides into the western Great Lakes
and Corn Belt. Friday looks downright blustery with brisk north
winds and increasing confidence that temperatures may not warm out
of the 40s.

While we are still several days out, almost all models are
painting a nearly perfect setup for an end to the growing season
Friday night. A surface ridge axis is forecast to extend from the
Great Lakes right through the heart of the Missouri Ozarks by 12
UTC on Saturday. With the parent surface high still progged to be
in the 1032-1034 mb range, temperatures should easily fall into
the 20s. We have lowered expected lows Friday night into the
middle 20s nearly area wide...which is very close to the 00 UTC
MEX numbers. If models continue to support this trend, a Freeze
Watch and eventual Freeze Warning almost seem inevitable.

Saturday will then be a chilly day across the region with highs
once again struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. We could then
see another frost or freeze Saturday night across the eastern
Ozarks depending on the position of that surface ridge axis. An
upper level ridge axis will then slide east across the region on
Sunday resulting in a dry day and temperatures rebounding into the
50s.

That ridge will be quick to move east of the area by Monday with
upper level southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Global
models continue to depict a positively tilted long wave trough
initially setting up from the northern Plains into the Desert
Southwest Monday and Tuesday. As this happens, models strengthen a
baroclinic zone from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains.
Given the positive tilt of the trough, it is quite possible that
this baroclinic zone is slow to clear the area. We are therefore
looking at the potential for widespread precipitation for at least
a couple of days early next week...if not even longer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

No aviation concerns are expected for the next 24 hours as high
pressure moves across the area. Winds will remain light with clear
skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291135
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Over the next 7 days, the main concerns will be cold temperatures
and the resulting potential for frost/freeze on several mornings,
and rain/storm chances early next week.

This morning will start out with brisk high pressure over the area
and many locations in northern MO dropping to the mid to upper 30s;
then, cooler air will continue to trickle down into the region this
afternoon, resulting in high temperatures a few additional degrees
below yesterday`s highs -- mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly flow will then briefly return for tonight and part of
Thursday, resulting in the warmest temperatures of the next 7 days
in the 60s to near 70 Thursday afternoon. A few isolated showers are
still possible, and may become slightly more widespread from west to
east as a shortwave trough moves through tomorrow, but nominal
rainfall amounts are expected and PoPs remain low.

Behind Thursday`s shortwave trough, a much deeper trough will sink
from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region from Thursday night
through Friday. The track of this system has come progressively
further to the west in the last few model runs, and will usher the
coldest air of the season into the CWA for Friday and Friday night.
Have lowered Friday morning`s highs by several degrees and added a
mention of patchy frost in our north, but the biggest reduction in
forecast temperatures was to Friday afternoon`s highs and Saturday
morning`s lows. All models bring a broad area of high pressure into
the central CONUS as 850 hPa temperatures drop into the -2 to -7
degree range on Friday, making any diurnal warming very difficult.
Have dropped highs into the 40s CWA-wide for Friday, and may need to
trend even a touch colder if models continue to head this direction.
Lows for Friday night into Saturday morning now look solidly in the
20s to at most 30 degrees, and will likely result in the first hard
freeze of the year throughout the forecast area.

As the trough pushes east, temperatures will gradually warm for the
rest of the weekend and into next week, but will be modulated by
rain chances Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system will lift out
of the Rockies on Sunday and will lift into North Dakota by Monday,
dragging a slow-moving cold front through the CWA Monday through at
least Tuesday morning. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
become possible ahead of the system on Sunday night, and will become
more likely along the boundary on Monday. General model consensus is
now for the base of that trough to cut off over the desert southwest
and linger there through the end of the forecast period while the
surface front stalls over southern Missouri, but this is a deviation
from yesterday`s more progressive solutions, so the forecast becomes
more unclear for Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light
northwest winds will remain around or less than 5 kts through late
evening, then will gradually become southeasterly at 5-7 kts by 06z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KLSX 291130
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
630 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Surface high pressure will slowly slide southeastward into central
Missouri by late afternoon today helping yield sunny skies and light
winds. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s
to the low 60s from north to south...or about 5 degrees below normal
for late October. These numbers generally are close to the MAV guidance
which has greatly outperformed the MET over the past couple of weeks
when mostly sunny skies have been observed.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move off to the east tonight allowing
southerly winds to return to the region. Clouds will be on the
increase ahead of next weather system, but clear skies and light
south winds over southeast MO will allow for some patchy frost to
develop in this area towards daybreak. As for low temps, will be in
the mid to upper 30s.

Next weather system to slide through region on Thursday. Will see an
increase in cloud cover and a chance of some showers, with best
chances to the northeast of the surface low track and lingering over
far eastern portions of forecast area past 00z Friday. So added
slight chance pops in this area through 06z Friday. Temperatures
hard to pin down. For now have highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s
with lows Thursday night in the mid to upper 30s.

A stronger shortwave to drop south across Illinois late Thursday
night/Friday, so could see some additional showers develop over far
eastern portions of forecast area. For now kept this area dry, but
will need to keep an eye out. This shortwave will bring in much
colder air to the region and will see steady or slowly falling temps
during the afternoon on Friday. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low
50s early in the day.

Majority of forecast area to drop below freezing Friday night with
lows in the mid to upper 20s most locations. Will keep mention in
HWO.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by late Saturday allowing
temperatures to moderate rather quickly. So by Sunday highs will be
in the low to mid 50s.

Beyond that the extended models have the next significant weather
system approaching the region by Sunday night with precipitation
developing and spreading across the entire area by Monday and
persisting through Tuesday. Temperatures to remain just below normal
in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Surface high pressure will come across the area through tonight
bringing mostly clear skies. Winds will be around 10 kts out of
the NW before becoming calm or light/variable tonight.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected over next 30 hours. Mostly clear skies
with NW winds slackening off tonight and becoming light/variable.

Gosselin

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290837
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
337 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Surface high pressure will slowly slide southeastward into central
Missouri by late afternoon today helping yield sunny skies and light
winds. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s
to the low 60s from north to south...or about 5 degrees below normal
for late October. These numbers generally are close to the MAV guidance
which has greatly outperformed the MET over the past couple of weeks
when mostly sunny skies have been observed.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move off to the east tonight allowing
southerly winds to return to the region. Clouds will be on the
increase ahead of next weather system, but clear skies and light
south winds over southeast MO will allow for some patchy frost to
develop in this area towards daybreak. As for low temps, will be in
the mid to upper 30s.

Next weather system to slide through region on Thursday. Will see an
increase in cloud cover and a chance of some showers, with best
chances to the northeast of the surface low track and lingering over
far eastern portions of forecast area past 00z Friday. So added
slight chance pops in this area through 06z Friday. Temperatures
hard to pin down. For now have highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s
with lows Thursday night in the mid to upper 30s.

A stronger shortwave to drop south across Illinois late Thursday
night/Friday, so could see some additional showers develop over far
eastern portions of forecast area. For now kept this area dry, but
will need to keep an eye out. This shortwave will bring in much
colder air to the region and will see steady or slowly falling temps
during the afternoon on Friday. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low
50s early in the day.

Majority of forecast area to drop below freezing Friday night with
lows in the mid to upper 20s most locations. Will keep mention in
HWO.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by late Saturday allowing
temperatures to moderate rather quickly. So by Sunday highs will be
in the low to mid 50s.

Beyond that the extended models have the next significant weather
system approaching the region by Sunday night with precipitation
developing and spreading across the entire area by Monday and
persisting through Tuesday. Temperatures to remain just below normal
in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Upper trof moving through the area taking the mid and high clouds
with it. Upper ridging and suface high pressure move in over the
next 12-24 hours. VFR sky with northwest wind becoming light and
variable Wednesday night.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR. Northwest wind becoming light and
variable Wednesday night.

JPK
&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290826
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...End to the Growing Season Increasingly Likely this Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

As of 3 AM...a large area of surface high pressure was situated
from  southern Nebraska into northern Oklahoma. Clear skies and
light winds prevailed across the region with early morning
temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. There
is likely some patchy frost out there in protected valleys.

That high pressure will slowly slide southeast today resulting in
sunny skies and light winds. High temperatures will range from
near 60 degrees around Lake of the Ozarks to the upper 60s over far
southwestern Missouri. These temperatures are just a few degrees
below normal for this time of year.

The axis of that high will then slide slowly southeast across the
Missouri Ozarks tonight. Our confidence has increased in patchy
frost potential overnight across the eastern Ozarks given light
winds and expected low temperatures in the mid 30s. We will still
have to watch for late night increasing clouds as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, areas back
towards I-49 will see slightly warmer temperatures as light
southerly winds kick in behind that ridge axis. Thus, there are no
frost concerns at this time across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

That upper level disturbance will dig southeast across
northeastern Missouri during the day on Thursday. Moisture will
be very limited with this disturbance. What will not be limited is
lift. The digging nature of this system along with our area
becoming positioned within the left exit region of an upper
level jet streak will really boost mid/upper level lift.
Additionally, strong isentropic upglide will be present in the mid
levels along with marginal amounts of instability. We therefore
expect isolated to widely scattered shower activity with the
greatest potential for showers along and east of the U.S. 65
corridor. If the NAM is correct in advertising 200-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE, we could even see a rogue lightning strike or two. We have
opted against a mention of thunder for now but will pass this
concern onto future shifts.

That passing upper level disturbance will also have a surface cold
front associated with it. The air mass behind this front will
mean business as models bring a 1036-1038 mb surface high into
North Dakota Thursday night. Strong cold air advection will ramp
up across our neck of the woods from later Thursday night through
Friday as that surface high slides into the western Great Lakes
and Corn Belt. Friday looks downright blustery with brisk north
winds and increasing confidence that temperatures may not warm out
of the 40s.

While we are still several days out, almost all models are
painting a nearly perfect setup for an end to the growing season
Friday night. A surface ridge axis is forecast to extend from the
Great Lakes right through the heart of the Missouri Ozarks by 12
UTC on Saturday. With the parent surface high still progged to be
in the 1032-1034 mb range, temperatures should easily fall into
the 20s. We have lowered expected lows Friday night into the
middle 20s nearly area wide...which is very close to the 00 UTC
MEX numbers. If models continue to support this trend, a Freeze
Watch and eventual Freeze Warning almost seem inevitable.

Saturday will then be a chilly day across the region with highs
once again struggling to reach the 50 degree mark. We could then
see another frost or freeze Saturday night across the eastern
Ozarks depending on the position of that surface ridge axis. An
upper level ridge axis will then slide east across the region on
Sunday resulting in a dry day and temperatures rebounding into the
50s.

That ridge will be quick to move east of the area by Monday with
upper level southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Global
models continue to depict a positively tilted long wave trough
initially setting up from the northern Plains into the Desert
Southwest Monday and Tuesday. As this happens, models strengthen a
baroclinic zone from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains.
Given the positive tilt of the trough, it is quite possible that
this baroclinic zone is slow to clear the area. We are therefore
looking at the potential for widespread precipitation for at least
a couple of days early next week...if not even longer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Surface high pressure will dominate our weather regime resulting
in a clear sky and light/variable winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KEAX 290803
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Over the next 7 days, the main concerns will be cold temperatures
and the resulting potential for frost/freeze on several mornings,
and rain/storm chances early next week.

This morning will start out with brisk high pressure over the area
and many locations in northern MO dropping to the mid to upper 30s;
then, cooler air will continue to trickle down into the region this
afternoon, resulting in high temperatures a few additional degrees
below yesterday`s highs -- mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Southerly flow will then briefly return for tonight and part of
Thursday, resulting in the warmest temperatures of the next 7 days
in the 60s to near 70 Thursday afternoon. A few isolated showers are
still possible, and may become slightly more widespread from west to
east as a shortwave trough moves through tomorrow, but nominal
rainfall amounts are expected and PoPs remain low.

Behind Thursday`s shortwave trough, a much deeper trough will sink
from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region from Thursday night
through Friday. The track of this system has come progressively
further to the west in the last few model runs, and will usher the
coldest air of the season into the CWA for Friday and Friday night.
Have lowered Friday morning`s highs by several degrees and added a
mention of patchy frost in our north, but the biggest reduction in
forecast temperatures was to Friday afternoon`s highs and Saturday
morning`s lows. All models bring a broad area of high pressure into
the central CONUS as 850 hPa temperatures drop into the -2 to -7
degree range on Friday, making any diurnal warming very difficult.
Have dropped highs into the 40s CWA-wide for Friday, and may need to
trend even a touch colder if models continue to head this direction.
Lows for Friday night into Saturday morning now look solidly in the
20s to at most 30 degrees, and will likely result in the first hard
freeze of the year throughout the forecast area.

As the trough pushes east, temperatures will gradually warm for the
rest of the weekend and into next week, but will be modulated by
rain chances Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system will lift out
of the Rockies on Sunday and will lift into North Dakota by Monday,
dragging a slow-moving cold front through the CWA Monday through at
least Tuesday morning. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
become possible ahead of the system on Sunday night, and will become
more likely along the boundary on Monday. General model consensus is
now for the base of that trough to cut off over the desert southwest
and linger there through the end of the forecast period while the
surface front stalls over southern Missouri, but this is a deviation
from yesterday`s more progressive solutions, so the forecast becomes
more unclear for Tuesday and beyond.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be that the light and variable wind overnight
will slowly turn to the southeast late Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter







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