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000
FXUS63 KEAX 310459
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Thunderstorms have popped up across southern and western portions of
the forecast area with additional smaller cells making an appearance
across NW MO. The trend over the next few hours will be for these
areas to continue to see activity until after sunset, at which point
intensity and coverage should wane as these storms are primarily
diurnally-driven. Plentiful instability and steep lapse rates have
been assisting the storms to quickly pulse up toward sub-severe to
perhaps just shy of severe levels but quickly comes back down in
intensity. Shear is rather weak and the storms have had a history of
becoming outflow dominated shortly after their maturation so any
severe threat is expected to be on the low side with any stronger
storm that may develop. As for heavy rain potential, that is
certainly a possibility for these storms given the increasing PWAT
values throughout the day. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1.4 to
1.5 inches of precipitable water values creeping in across the
southern third of the forecast area. These values are within the 90th
percentile as compared to normal for this time of year. All of this
said, the primary hazards will be gusty to perhaps damaging winds,
hail, and locally heavy rainfall. With a 700mb ridge just off toward
the east of the area, storms will generally follow the south-to-north
movement they`ve been on but flow at this level is rather weak so
they`ll not only be slow to move, but potentially allow themselves to
become latched onto localized boundaries that may linger in the area.
Coupling the aforementioned discussion about heavy rain with the slow
movement of these storms, flooding will be a possibility tonight,
especially in areas where flash flood guidance is rather low, thanks
to all of the recent rainfall.

For tomorrow, chances for storms to become strong to perhaps severe
look better given the incoming upper-level trough axis swinging
through, assisting with keeping a frontal boundary moving along.
Moisture out ahead of the front will be abundant and once again
coupled with plentiful instability and steep lapse rates, storms
pulsing up in severity will be possible. Again though, the limiting
factor will be the lack of decent shear. Front looks to start coming
through the NW part of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours, making most of its way through the area by Wednesday
morning. Can`t rule out continued precip chances well into Wednesday
across the south and east, even though the front may have cleared, as
the aforementioned trough aloft traverses through.

Once the upper trough moves through, the latter half of the week will
be drier and seasonably warm as surface high pressure takes control.
The next chance for storms arrives next weekend with the next frontal
boundary anticipated to move through. More details as that time
approaches.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

A little bit of a challenging fcst going forward early this morning
as fcst models continue to hint at reduced visibilities by early
morning. Main caveat seen right now is upstream cloud cover
associated with Central Plains convection that will continue sliding
east during the early morning hrs. Due to this uncertainty...have
elected to offer MVFR restrictions at the three KC terminals...while
leaving out any mention out of STJ as model progs show the best
potential for fog across southeastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri. Beyond this...main shwr/storm activity expected to move
through the area during the mid-afternoon hrs with restrictions
down the MVFR and potentially IFR likely. Activity should come to an
end after the 03z time frame or so with improvements likely through
the conclusion of the fcst period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...32



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000
FXUS63 KLSX 310454
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1154 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms over eastern MO and southwest
IL has decreased in areal extent over the past hour as the
atmosphere has become more stable. Have backed off to just a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms the rest of the night.
Skies will be mostly cloudy because of the leftover convective
debris. Going lows still look good.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Getting isolated showers/storms this afternoon across parts of the
forecast area with diurnal heating and instability.  More
significant is the convection across southwest MO associated with an
MCV.  This convection will likely move into parts of central and
southeast MO late this afternoon and early this evening.  A few
storms may be strong to severe in central MO late this afternoon and
early this evening.  Although the convection should weaken in
intensity later this evening as the atmosphere stabilizes with
nocturnal cooling, some of this activity may continue to push
northeastward into much of our forecast area overnight.  Low
temperatures should be a little warmer than the previous night due
to increased cloud cover and a return to low level southerly winds.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Storm chances will be on the increase Tuesday as cold front moves
into northwestern MO by midday. Highs on Tuesday hard to pin down as
it will depend on cloud cover and precipitation. For now, they will
be a bit above normal in the low to mid 80s. Will see several rounds
of storms with best chances Tuesday night and Wednesday as front
moves through forecast area. Some decent instability and lift along
boundary, but it will be marginal especially over southeast MO and
southwestern IL. So SPC has a marginal risk over southeast half of
forecast area on Wednesday.

Rain to taper off on Thursday with drier weather through Friday as
weak ridging builds in. However, next system to approach region for
the weekend but timing hard to pin down, so kept slight chance pops
for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be near normal through
the extended.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected through midday Tuesday
when additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
into the area. Have added VCTS to all of the terminals tomorrow
afternoon into early Tuesday evening. Any storms will have the
potential to produce heavy downpours with MVFR and possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected at the
terminal through early Tuesday afternoon when scattered storms
will develop over the area. Any storms will have the potential to
produce heavy downpours with MVFR and possible IFR ceilings and
visibilities.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 310026
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
726 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Getting isolated showers/storms this afternoon across parts of the
forecast area with diurnal heating and instability.  More
significant is the convection across southwest MO associated with an
MCV.  This convection will likely move into parts of central and
southeast MO late this afternoon and early this evening.  A few
storms may be strong to severe in central MO late this afternoon and
early this evening.  Although the convection should weaken in
intensity later this evening as the atmosphere stabilizes with
nocturnal cooling, some of this activity may continue to push
northeastward into much of our forecast area overnight.  Low
temperatures should be a little warmer than the previous night due
to increased cloud cover and a return to low level southerly winds.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Storm chances will be on the increase Tuesday as cold front moves
into northwestern MO by midday. Highs on Tuesday hard to pin down as
it will depend on cloud cover and precipitation. For now, they will
be a bit above normal in the low to mid 80s. Will see several rounds
of storms with best chances Tuesday night and Wednesday as front
moves through forecast area. Some decent instability and lift along
boundary, but it will be marginal especially over southeast MO and
southwestern IL. So SPC has a marginal risk over southeast half of
forecast area on Wednesday.

Rain to taper off on Thursday with drier weather through Friday as
weak ridging builds in. However, next system to approach region for
the weekend but timing hard to pin down, so kept slight chance pops
for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be near normal through
the extended.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 725 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued affect parts of
southwest Illinois as well as central and east central Missouri
early this evening. Any storms will have the potential to produce
heavy downpours with MVFR and possible IFR ceilings and
visibilities. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
throughout the TAF period, but best chance will be during Tuesday
afternoon. Have kept VCSH going in all of the TAFS.

Specifics for KSTL: There currently are showers and isolated
thunderstorms over eastern MO and southwest IL, but they have been
staying out of the vicinity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible throughout the TAF period, but the best chance will be
during Tuesday afternoon. Any storms will have the potential to
produce heavy downpours with MVFR and possible IFR ceilings and
visibilities.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 302343
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Thunderstorms have popped up across southern and western portions of
the forecast area with additional smaller cells making an appearance
across NW MO. The trend over the next few hours will be for these
areas to continue to see activity until after sunset, at which point
intensity and coverage should wane as these storms are primarily
diurnally-driven. Plentiful instability and steep lapse rates have
been assisting the storms to quickly pulse up toward sub-severe to
perhaps just shy of severe levels but quickly comes back down in
intensity. Shear is rather weak and the storms have had a history of
becoming outflow dominated shortly after their maturation so any
severe threat is expected to be on the low side with any stronger
storm that may develop. As for heavy rain potential, that is
certainly a possibility for these storms given the increasing PWAT
values throughout the day. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1.4 to
1.5 inches of precipitable water values creeping in across the
southern third of the forecast area. These values are within the 90th
percentile as compared to normal for this time of year. All of this
said, the primary hazards will be gusty to perhaps damaging winds,
hail, and locally heavy rainfall. With a 700mb ridge just off toward
the east of the area, storms will generally follow the south-to-north
movement they`ve been on but flow at this level is rather weak so
they`ll not only be slow to move, but potentially allow themselves to
become latched onto localized boundaries that may linger in the area.
Coupling the aforementioned discussion about heavy rain with the slow
movement of these storms, flooding will be a possibility tonight,
especially in areas where flash flood guidance is rather low, thanks
to all of the recent rainfall.

For tomorrow, chances for storms to become strong to perhaps severe
look better given the incoming upper-level trough axis swinging
through, assisting with keeping a frontal boundary moving along.
Moisture out ahead of the front will be abundant and once again
coupled with plentiful instability and steep lapse rates, storms
pulsing up in severity will be possible. Again though, the limiting
factor will be the lack of decent shear. Front looks to start coming
through the NW part of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours, making most of its way through the area by Wednesday
morning. Can`t rule out continued precip chances well into Wednesday
across the south and east, even though the front may have cleared, as
the aforementioned trough aloft traverses through.

Once the upper trough moves through, the latter half of the week will
be drier and seasonably warm as surface high pressure takes control.
The next chance for storms arrives next weekend with the next frontal
boundary anticipated to move through. More details as that time
approaches.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Convection across north-central Missouri and northeast Kansas is
beginning to dissipate with loss of daytime heating. Expect dry
conditions overnight with sct-bkn CI aloft with winds remaining from
the south and southeast between 3-7 kts. Fair wx cu initially
tomorrow will be followed by renewed shwr/storm chances after 21z as
main cold front approaches. As this activity moves in...expect
cig/vsby reductions into the MVFR flight category.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...32




000
FXUS63 KLSX 301945
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
245 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Getting isolated showers/storms this afternoon across parts of the
forecast area with diurnal heating and instability.  More
significant is the convection across southwest MO associated with an
MCV.  This convection will likely move into parts of central and
southeast MO late this afternoon and early this evening.  A few
storms may be strong to severe in central MO late this afternoon and
early this evening.  Although the convection should weaken in
intensity later this evening as the atmosphere stabilizes with
nocturnal cooling, some of this activity may continue to push
northeastward into much of our forecast area overnight.  Low
temperatures should be a little warmer than the previous night due
to increased cloud cover and a return to low level southerly winds.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Storm chances will be on the increase Tuesday as cold front moves
into northwestern MO by midday. Highs on Tuesday hard to pin down as
it will depend on cloud cover and precipitation. For now, they will
be a bit above normal in the low to mid 80s. Will see several rounds
of storms with best chances Tuesday night and Wednesday as front
moves through forecast area. Some decent instability and lift along
boundary, but it will be marginal especially over southeast MO and
southwestern IL. So SPC has a marginal risk over southeast half of
forecast area on Wednesday.

Rain to taper off on Thursday with drier weather through Friday as
weak ridging builds in. However, next system to approach region for
the weekend but timing hard to pin down, so kept slight chance pops
for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be near normal through
the extended.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will develop this afternoon.
There should be isolated showers/storms late this afternoon and
early this evening, but for most sites the probability of
precipitation looks too low to include in the tafs. The one
exception may be COU where showers/storms moving into southwestern
MO associated with an upper level disturbance may move into COU
by evening or overnight. Mainly just mid-high level cloudiness
expected for tonight. Weak south-southeasterly surface winds can
be expected this afternoon as the surface ridge shifts east of the
area. Surface winds will become light this evening, then
strengthen on Tuesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will develop
this afternoon. Could not rule out an isolated shower/storm late
this afternoon or early this evening, but it appears that the
better chance for convection will be Tuesday afternoon. For now
will keep the STL taf dry this afternoon and tonight, but include
VCTS Tuesday afternoon. Mainly just mid-high level cloudiness
tonight, then diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late
Tuesday morning and afternoon. Southwest surface wind will become
more southeasterly this afternoon, then light this evening.
Southeasterly surface wind will strengthen to around 8 kts Tuesday
afternoon.

GKS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     66  85  67  81 /  20  30  50  70
Quincy          64  83  64  79 /  30  50  70  60
Columbia        63  81  63  78 /  30  50  70  60
Jefferson City  63  82  64  78 /  40  50  70  70
Salem           64  85  65  82 /  20  20  30  70
Farmington      62  81  63  80 /  20  30  40  70

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 301652
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1152 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A surface warm front extends from northeast Nebraska to northeast
Missouri early this morning and is moving very slowly to tbe east.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed near and
east of this warm front from the WAA aloft.  Otherwise, skies were
mostly clear across the rest of our region with temps mainly in the
60s, with some pockets of 50s in the valley areas of the eastern
Ozarks, and the urban heat island of STL still holding on to some
lower 70s.

The situation with the warm front will likely persist to some degree
thru mid-morning, maintaining the threat for isolated showers and
thunderstorms in parts of northeast MO and west-central IL.
Otherwise, things should reset by late this morning with the models
advertising a very weak shear, low-moderate CAPE, no CINH
environment with any focus, surface-based or aloft, hard to come by.
Discrete models are all suggesting the potential for a few showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon with virtually no distinguishment
for one area over another given lack of a discernable focus.  With
this in mind, went slight chance PoPs for most of the forecast area
this afternoon for potential of "airmass" type thunderstorms.
Severe potential should be low given the environmental setup.

For much of today, should see decent sunshine for most areas with a
weak southeast to south flow developing as the surface warm front
moves thru.  Should see max temps at or above persistence, yielding
readings in the upper 80s to around 90.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Tonight - Wed night

Upper lvl flow will become increasingly more SWrly thru the week as
a short wave strengthens across the ntrhn Plains Mon night/Tue. Even
though there is largely a lack of focus or forcing thru Tue...expect
isld/scttrd precip in the warm moist SW flow. One thing to watch is
the upper lvl system driving the convection across TX tonight. Most
guidance tracks it E or NE today...keeping it just S of the CWA
but...the ECMWF and NAM actually bring the core of that feature
across the CWA tonight. That scenario would obviously create far
different conditions that the current fcst indicates. This is
something the day shift will have to monitor for potential
significant fcst adjustments. This feature will drive a cold front
thru the region Wed/Wed night. A portion of the CWA is outlooked for
a marginal risk of SVR TSTMs on Wed. This would appear appropriate
due to less than 30 kts of shear. Temps should be aoa normal.

Thu - Sun

There is a low potential for a few post frontal SHRAs across SE MO
and sthrn IL on Thu but think most locations will remain dry. SFC
high pressure is fcst to build into the region for the end of the
week providing the area at least one dry day on Fri. Guidance
suggests significant troughs dvlpng along the Coasts with a high
amplitude ridge aligned along the Rockies over the wknd which puts
the...FA in NW flow. Differences exist in timing of short waves over
the wknd assoc with reinforcing shots of cold air and precip
chances. Temps should be near normal.

2%

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will develop this afternoon.
There should be isolated showers/storms late this afternoon and
early this evening, but for most sites the probability of
precipitation looks too low to include in the tafs. The one
exception may be COU where showers/storms moving into southwestern
MO associated with an upper level disturbance may move into COU
by evening or overnight. Mainly just mid-high level cloudiness
expected for tonight. Weak south-southeasterly surface winds can
be expected this afternoon as the surface ridge shifts east of the
area. Surface winds will become light this evening, then
strengthen on Tuesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will develop
this afternoon. Could not rule out an isolated shower/storm late
this afternoon or early this evening, but it appears that the
better chance for convection will be Tuesday afternoon. For now
will keep the STL taf dry this afternoon and tonight, but include
VCTS Tuesday afternoon. Mainly just mid-high level cloudiness
tonight, then diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late
Tuesday morning and afternoon. Southwest surface wind will become
more southeasterly this afternoon, then light this evening.
Southeasterly surface wind will strengthen to around 8 kts Tuesday
afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 301136
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 416 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Today - Wednesday:

Not much to hang one`s hat on to define where/when convection will
form or move in today. A weak and poorly defined warm front extends
from central NE through south central IA and northeast MO this
morning. Isolated/elevated convection aided by weak isentropic
ascent on the 305K surface has sputtered through the night across
the far northeastern counties. Think this lift will dissipate by mid
morning. Otherwise, think the CWA will be dry until this afternoon.
Inspection of local progged soundings reveals a very unstable
airmass with the CIN disappearing this afternoon. Short range
convective allowing models as well as GFS and NAM paint the picture
of hit and miss/pulse type convection. 0-6km shear is very weak so
convection will be sub-severe.

North TX MCS is heading towards the gulf and 00z/06z models not
handling this well which calls into question the vorticity max the
GFS and especially the NAM show over OK by 18z. For now will focus
on diurnally driven/pulse type convection. High temperatures should
be similar to yesterdays.

Overnight, convection generated along a weak cold front will likely
weaken as it heads towards northwest MO after midnight. This
activity could survive the typical morning dissipation phase and
sputter around before redeveloping in the afternoon. The
precipitation and how much/how long the convective cloud debris
linger will determine the degree of instability and later convective
potential/coverage. Even if we see moderate instability the severe
threat will again be muted by weak 0-6km shear in the 15-20kt range.

The cold front wont reach the region until Tuesday night as it
awaits the arrival of a moderately strong upstream shortwave. This
should ensure likely type PoPs into the evening hours.

Wednesday will start the transition to a drier period as the cold
front moves into central MO by late morning. Will keep high chance
PoPs over the southeast third of the CWA.

Thursday - Sunday:

A relatively uneventful and quiet period marked initially by drier
and more stable air arriving as weak high pressure builds into the
region. Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal
readings.

Faster northwest flow aloft resides across the north central and
Great Lakes states. Will need to monitor for any buckles in the flow
signaling a shortwave dropping southeast. GFS picks up on a feature
forcing a cold front through the mid MO River Valley late Saturday
whereas the ECMWF does not. Lacking confirmation and with the
blended approach only yielding below climatology PoPs will maintain
a dry forecast. Do see slightly warmer temperatures and an uptick
in humidity with the return of southerly flow.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

VFR conditions with light south winds for the morning hours.
Diurnally driven hit and miss pulse type of afternoon convection.
Better chance for scattered convection moving into northwest MO after
midnight. Storms could reach the Kansas City terminals by the pre-
dawn hours. Ceilings still VFR but lower to the 8-10K agl level.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...MJ




000
FXUS63 KLSX 300441
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening over
northeast Missouri in an area of weak low level moisture
convergence seen on the RAP. Latest objective analysis shows this
area has near 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 30kts of effective shear.
Expect these storms to gradually weaken later this evening as the
low level ridge move across the area causing the convergence to
weaken. Otherwise, will increase cloud cover with convective debris
moving into the area from the Plains. Lows tonight still look on
track.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered diurnal cumulus field has developed across much of the
forecast area this afternoon.  Could not rule out an isolated shower
across southeast MO and southwest IL late this afternoon where there
is a little better low level moisture and instability, but will
leave the forecast dry for now as the probability is very low.  The
cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening due to the loss
of daytime heating.  There will likely be some high level clouds
tonight.  Discounting the GFS model which has light QPF and chance
pops over northeast MO late tonight.  It does not appear that there
will be enough forcing or moisture to generate any precipitation
late tonight, and will go with the dry solutions of the NAM and
ECMWF models. The surface wind will become light or even calm this
evening with a surface ridge over our area. There should be enough
radiational cooling to allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60s
late tonight/early Monday morning over most of the area with a few
spots in the upper 50s for lows.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Most of the holiday will be dry, but low level flow will bring
moisture back into the region with rain chances increasing as the
day progresses and first in a series of shortwaves slide through
area. So have slight chance/pops mainly for areas along and west
of Mississippi River. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s
Monday.

Rounds of activity to persist through midweek with best chances of
storms Tuesday night and Wednesday, so have likely pops for most of
forecast area. Have some decent CAPES on Wednesday with frontal
boundary moving through, but it is still too far out to determine if
we will see any severe weather by mid week. Highs through midweek
will be in the in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Then cold front to exit region bringing in slightly cooler and drier
wx through at least Saturday. However, highs will still be near
normal, in the mid to upper 70s. Could see wet pattern return for
next Sunday, but for now just kept slight chance/low end chance pops
at this time.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to be generated across
northeast Missouri into west central Illinois late this evening. A
few of these may affect KUIN through 08Z. Mainly dry and VFR
weather is expected through the rest of the period at the TAF
period. Only exception may occur at KCOU tomorrow when scattered
showers move into central Missouri during the afternoon. Have
included a VCSH to accommodate this risk.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected the next
30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 292112
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
412 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Thunderstorms currently erupting across central KS into northern OK
are anchored by boundaries in their vicinity. Localized moisture
pooling, an uncapped and unstable atmosphere, and steep lapse rates
are all contributing to the upscale growth this afternoon. While some
of these parameters bleed into the western portions of this forecast
area, the local atmosphere is drier, and without much for storms to
hang their hats on, chances of storm development and/or maintenance remains
low. Additionally, a lack of deep layer shear and a large-scale
lifting mechanism keeps storm growth spatially and temporally at bay.
Note though that the chances of pop-up pulsy storms are not nil -
they just remain on the low side.

Better convection chances arrive late tomorrow through early
Wednesday. While the area has had a bit of a break from the unsettled
pattern this weekend, a few more days of unsettled weather returns.
Surface southerly flow returns for Memorial Day and coupled with
another unstable atmosphere and steep lapse rates during the
afternoon, storms will be possible. However, 0-6km shear remains
marginal at best for organized development and severe potential so
the storm mode of choice will likely be pulsy in nature. As a frontal
boundary and upper-level trough approaches the area late Tuesday,
storm organization as well as coverage will be on the increase. Shear
will remain in question with respect to severe chances though.

For the latter half of the week, should finally see a decent period
of dry weather as surface high pressure visits the area. The next
chance for precip could arrive next weekend as a boundary and
seemingly weak trough axis rotates through but the limiting factor
could be moisture. Too far out at this point to linger on the details
at this point. Temperatures will be rather seasonable for this time
of year, ranging in the 70s and 80s throughout the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VFR is likely to prevail throughout the TAF period as thunderstorm
chances look to largely remain outside of the terminal areas, off
toward the south and west. However, can`t rule out a stray shower or
thunderstorm popping up in the vicinity this afternoon into this
evening. Lack of confidence in a direct impact to terminals precludes
mention in the TAF. Will AMD as necessary.

Through tonight, winds will become more southerly, allowing for more
moisture to advect into the region tomorrow. Convective chances will
be on the increase tomorrow but those increasing chances largely fall
outside of this period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg




000
FXUS63 KEAX 291751
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Despite moderate instability today, based on forecast soundings, a
lack of any kind of focus and just enough CINH should keep rain
chances at bay for most of the day. But convection should develop
during the afternoon over central to eastern Kansas and may drift
into extreme eastern Kansas and adjacent areas of Missouri. So will
maintain the slight chance for storms in this area for this
afternoon. Weak flow through the atmosphere combined with a lack of
any focus and modest CAPE suggest just air mass showers and storms if
anything develop and/or move into the area this afternoon. The
threat of anything severe as a result is very low.

This modest CAPE/ weak shear environment looks to persist through
the first half of the week and as a result will maintain a low
chance for showers and storms into Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday,
a cold front will begin to slowly move through the area. Storms may
develop on a prefrontal trough/convergent area Tuesday over
northwestern Missouri so feel likely PoPs are warranted during the
afternoon hours. The actual cold front looks to split the area by
midday on Wednesday with potentially widespread showers and storms.
For both days, the threat of severe weather looks low due to the
weak shear.

A much drier air mass will move into the area behind the front for
the later half of the week and into the weekend. This will lead to
dry weather Thursday through Saturday. Through this time, a
deepening upper ridge over the western half of the country will put
the area into northwesterly flow. For now, it doesn`t appear that a
wave strong enough to wring out any precipitation will move through
until Saturday night or Sunday. And since moisture is limited those
chances look fairly low at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VFR is likely to prevail throughout the TAF period as thunderstorm
chances look to largely remain outside of the terminal areas, off
toward the south and west. However, can`t rule out a stray shower or
thunderstorm popping up in the vicinity this afternoon into this
evening. Lack of confidence in a direct impact to terminals precludes
mention in the TAF. Will AMD as necessary.

Through tonight, winds will become more southerly, allowing for more
moisture to advect into the region tomorrow. Convective chances will
be on the increase tomorrow but those increasing chances largely fall
outside of this period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...lg



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 290805
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Some drier air will filter in behind the cold front today, as
surface dewpoints only expected in the upper 50s to lower 60s by
this afternoon. Despite highs in the middle 80s, the drier air will
keep humidities down. Most areas will remain dry, although cannot
rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorms over far southwest
Missouri.

This lull will continue through much of tonight as well. However,
low level flow does strengthen over the Plains, with a modest 30
knot low level jet developing over Oklahoma. This may spawn some
convection that could drift into portions of southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri late tonight. However, probabilities will be
low of this occurring. Otherwise, it will be a comfortable night
with lows dropping into the lower 60s, with some upper 50s
possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Southerly low level flow returns on Monday, albeit rather weak.
Instabilities and shear look rather weak as well, but with shortwave
poised to track into the area would expect scattered convection
to once again. Biggest question is how much activity will be
around during the morning hours, of the deterministic models, NAM
the most robust, while GFS shows the potential for a few early
morning showers/storms they dissipate rather quickly then re-
develop during the afternoon hours. Given these scenarios will
keep mid range probabilities in for the morning hours.

As we head into Tuesday and Wednesday, a stronger shortwave trough
will traverse the Northern Plains. This will push a cold front
towards the area, with the medium range models pushing it through
southern Missouri Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A southerly
flow will continue out ahead of this front with a series of
shortwave waves rotating across the area. This will keep periodic
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through at least the first
part of Thursday. Cannot rule out a few severe storms during this
period, but at this point chances look rather low. Cooler and
drier air moves in behind the front with quiet weather expected
from Thursday night right into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

A weak surface cold front was pushing through the region late this
evening. Isolated storms continued across the eastern Ozarks, with
the only affect at the TAF sites was at KBBG, where a lower VFR
ceiling prevailed. These clouds will clear out later tonight between
09Z-11Z. Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions expected at KSGF
and KJLN through the TAF period.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding




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