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000
FXUS63 KLSX 200410
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1110 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 856 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

The convection has shifted east of the forecast area with little
if any clouds left this evening. Still expecting convection to
develop over eastern Nebraska and southwest IA late this evening
and overnight on nose of swly low lvel jet over the Plains and
drop southeastward along and north of a subtle cold front
extending nw to se from around MCI southeast through STL area to
southern IL. The latest 00z Wednesday run of the NAM only
generates light qpf across northeast MO late tonight, while the
HRRR model is much more robust developing convection into
northeast MO shortly after midnight then ramps it up southeast
towards the St. Louis metro area by early morning. Will also
likely have patchy fog across east central MO and southwest IL
late tonight due to light surface winds, high surface dew points,
and little cloud cover in this area until early morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Morning and early afternoon convection associated with a mid/upper
level shortwave has moved east of the CWA. Cold front approaching
from the northwest is sparking a few thunderstorms across extreme
northeast Missouri. Will watch this convection over the next hour
and decide how far south to forecast thunderstorms this evening
with the front.

Front is expected to settle into a northwest to southeast
orientation overnight from near Kansas City area to southern
Illinois. Model guidance is not as enthusiastic with convection
developing overnight - but with front in vicinity and low level
jet can`t rule out elevated convection. Have maintained chance
POPs for now and will let evening shift determine need to increase
or decrease by NOWCast.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Story will be the HEAT and HUMIDITY. It`s finally going to feel
like summer with the first real heat wave beginning tomorrow. Have
decided to hoist an Excessive Heat Warning for the urban zones of
the Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Temperatures will be in
the middle 90s tomorrow and rise into the upper 90s through at
least Sunday. The long duration of afternoon/early evening heat
index values around 105 degrees will cause life threatening
conditions for those that do not have access to air conditioning.

Outside of the urban areas, the heat will increase, but not reach
advisory levels until Friday. Will let later shifts access the
need for additional heat headlines.

There is still a chance, albiet slight, for thunderstorms to
develop on Wednesday as the warm front lifts through the area.
After that, I`m not sure we will see any rain until next week when
a front moves south and stalls somewhere across the Midwest. If
the front does not make it far enough south - the heat headlines
will likely have to be extended into the next work week.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

A weak cold front was draped from central IL thru northern MO late
this evening and was producing very little in the way of clouds
and only one cell just to the east of UIN. This front is expected
to move thru our region uneventfully for the next few hours and early
overnight, before stalling out and eventually retreating to the
north as a warm front late. When this does happen, scattered
convection is expected to break out along the front as it pushes
thru the TAF sites thru mid Wednesday morning. Have upgraded to
VCTS mention, but southern extent looking a bit more iffy if front
does not work its way far enough south as originally expected. Some
fog is also expected, especially at SUS and CPS, but will be in a
narrower window than last night due to the expected clouds and
convection firing along the warm front. VFR conditions are then
expected for the remainder of the TAF period from late Wednesday
morning on as the entire area moves into a warm sector setup.
Surface winds will become S-SW as the warm front moves thru.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions outside of rain are expected
thru the period. A small window early Wednesday morning for rain
is anticipated as a warm front moves thru. An outside chance for
some VSBY reductions in mist late tonight as well, but small
enough to preclude mention in the TAF at this time.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 200410
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1110 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 856 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

The convection has shifted east of the forecast area with little
if any clouds left this evening. Still expecting convection to
develop over eastern Nebraska and southwest IA late this evening
and overnight on nose of swly low lvel jet over the Plains and
drop southeastward along and north of a subtle cold front
extending nw to se from around MCI southeast through STL area to
southern IL. The latest 00z Wednesday run of the NAM only
generates light qpf across northeast MO late tonight, while the
HRRR model is much more robust developing convection into
northeast MO shortly after midnight then ramps it up southeast
towards the St. Louis metro area by early morning. Will also
likely have patchy fog across east central MO and southwest IL
late tonight due to light surface winds, high surface dew points,
and little cloud cover in this area until early morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Morning and early afternoon convection associated with a mid/upper
level shortwave has moved east of the CWA. Cold front approaching
from the northwest is sparking a few thunderstorms across extreme
northeast Missouri. Will watch this convection over the next hour
and decide how far south to forecast thunderstorms this evening
with the front.

Front is expected to settle into a northwest to southeast
orientation overnight from near Kansas City area to southern
Illinois. Model guidance is not as enthusiastic with convection
developing overnight - but with front in vicinity and low level
jet can`t rule out elevated convection. Have maintained chance
POPs for now and will let evening shift determine need to increase
or decrease by NOWCast.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Story will be the HEAT and HUMIDITY. It`s finally going to feel
like summer with the first real heat wave beginning tomorrow. Have
decided to hoist an Excessive Heat Warning for the urban zones of
the Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Temperatures will be in
the middle 90s tomorrow and rise into the upper 90s through at
least Sunday. The long duration of afternoon/early evening heat
index values around 105 degrees will cause life threatening
conditions for those that do not have access to air conditioning.

Outside of the urban areas, the heat will increase, but not reach
advisory levels until Friday. Will let later shifts access the
need for additional heat headlines.

There is still a chance, albiet slight, for thunderstorms to
develop on Wednesday as the warm front lifts through the area.
After that, I`m not sure we will see any rain until next week when
a front moves south and stalls somewhere across the Midwest. If
the front does not make it far enough south - the heat headlines
will likely have to be extended into the next work week.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

A weak cold front was draped from central IL thru northern MO late
this evening and was producing very little in the way of clouds
and only one cell just to the east of UIN. This front is expected
to move thru our region uneventfully for the next few hours and early
overnight, before stalling out and eventually retreating to the
north as a warm front late. When this does happen, scattered
convection is expected to break out along the front as it pushes
thru the TAF sites thru mid Wednesday morning. Have upgraded to
VCTS mention, but southern extent looking a bit more iffy if front
does not work its way far enough south as originally expected. Some
fog is also expected, especially at SUS and CPS, but will be in a
narrower window than last night due to the expected clouds and
convection firing along the warm front. VFR conditions are then
expected for the remainder of the TAF period from late Wednesday
morning on as the entire area moves into a warm sector setup.
Surface winds will become S-SW as the warm front moves thru.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions outside of rain are expected
thru the period. A small window early Wednesday morning for rain
is anticipated as a warm front moves thru. An outside chance for
some VSBY reductions in mist late tonight as well, but small
enough to preclude mention in the TAF at this time.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 200235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
935 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 856 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

The convection has shifted east of the forecast area with little
if any clouds left this evening. Still expecting convection to
develop over eastern Nebraska and southwest IA late this evening
and overnight on nose of swly low lvel jet over the Plains and
drop southeastward along and north of a subtle cold front
extending nw to se from around MCI southeast through STL area to
southern IL. The latest 00z Wednesday run of the NAM only
generates light qpf across northeast MO late tonight, while the
HRRR model is much more robust developing convection into
northeast MO shortly after midnight then ramps it up southeast
towards the St. Louis metro area by early morning. Will also
likely have patchy fog across east central MO and southwest IL
late tonight due to light surface winds, high surface dew points,
and little cloud cover in this area until early morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Morning and early afternoon convection associated with a mid/upper
level shortwave has moved east of the CWA. Cold front approaching
from the northwest is sparking a few thunderstorms across extreme
northeast Missouri. Will watch this convection over the next hour
and decide how far south to forecast thunderstorms this evening
with the front.

Front is expected to settle into a northwest to southeast
orientation overnight from near Kansas City area to southern
Illinois. Model guidance is not as enthusiastic with convection
developing overnight - but with front in vicinity and low level
jet can`t rule out elevated convection. Have maintained chance
POPs for now and will let evening shift determine need to increase
or decrease by NOWCast.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Story will be the HEAT and HUMIDITY. It`s finally going to feel
like summer with the first real heat wave beginning tomorrow. Have
decided to hoist an Excessive Heat Warning for the urban zones of
the Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Temperatures will be in
the middle 90s tomorrow and rise into the upper 90s through at
least Sunday. The long duration of afternoon/early evening heat
index values around 105 degrees will cause life threatening
conditions for those that do not have access to air conditioning.

Outside of the urban areas, the heat will increase, but not reach
advisory levels until Friday. Will let later shifts access the
need for additional heat headlines.

There is still a chance, albiet slight, for thunderstorms to
develop on Wednesday as the warm front lifts through the area.
After that, I`m not sure we will see any rain until next week when
a front moves south and stalls somewhere across the Midwest. If
the front does not make it far enough south - the heat headlines
will likely have to be extended into the next work week.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

A weak cold front was draped from northwest IL thru northern MO
early this evening and was producing very little in the way of
clouds and no rain. This front is expected to move thru our region
uneventfully this evening and early overnight, before stalling out
and eventually retreating to the north as a warm front late. When
this does happen, scattered convection is expected to break out
along the front as it pushes thru the TAF sites thru mid Wednesday
morning. Have added VCSH for now for timing purposes but there
will also be a threat for thunder as well, but can escalate later
this evening. Some fog is also expected, especially at SUS and
CPS, but will be in a narrower window than last night due to the
expected clouds and convection firing along the warm front. VFR
conditions are then expected for the remainder of the TAF period
from late Wednesday morning on as the entire area moves into a
warm sector setup. Surface winds will become S-SW as the warm
front moves thru.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions outside of rain are expected
thru the period. A small window early Wednesday morning for rain
is anticipated as a warm front moves thru. An outside chance for
some VSBY reductions in mist late tonight as well, but small
enough to preclude mention in the TAF at this time.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 200235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
935 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 856 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

The convection has shifted east of the forecast area with little
if any clouds left this evening. Still expecting convection to
develop over eastern Nebraska and southwest IA late this evening
and overnight on nose of swly low lvel jet over the Plains and
drop southeastward along and north of a subtle cold front
extending nw to se from around MCI southeast through STL area to
southern IL. The latest 00z Wednesday run of the NAM only
generates light qpf across northeast MO late tonight, while the
HRRR model is much more robust developing convection into
northeast MO shortly after midnight then ramps it up southeast
towards the St. Louis metro area by early morning. Will also
likely have patchy fog across east central MO and southwest IL
late tonight due to light surface winds, high surface dew points,
and little cloud cover in this area until early morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Morning and early afternoon convection associated with a mid/upper
level shortwave has moved east of the CWA. Cold front approaching
from the northwest is sparking a few thunderstorms across extreme
northeast Missouri. Will watch this convection over the next hour
and decide how far south to forecast thunderstorms this evening
with the front.

Front is expected to settle into a northwest to southeast
orientation overnight from near Kansas City area to southern
Illinois. Model guidance is not as enthusiastic with convection
developing overnight - but with front in vicinity and low level
jet can`t rule out elevated convection. Have maintained chance
POPs for now and will let evening shift determine need to increase
or decrease by NOWCast.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Story will be the HEAT and HUMIDITY. It`s finally going to feel
like summer with the first real heat wave beginning tomorrow. Have
decided to hoist an Excessive Heat Warning for the urban zones of
the Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Temperatures will be in
the middle 90s tomorrow and rise into the upper 90s through at
least Sunday. The long duration of afternoon/early evening heat
index values around 105 degrees will cause life threatening
conditions for those that do not have access to air conditioning.

Outside of the urban areas, the heat will increase, but not reach
advisory levels until Friday. Will let later shifts access the
need for additional heat headlines.

There is still a chance, albiet slight, for thunderstorms to
develop on Wednesday as the warm front lifts through the area.
After that, I`m not sure we will see any rain until next week when
a front moves south and stalls somewhere across the Midwest. If
the front does not make it far enough south - the heat headlines
will likely have to be extended into the next work week.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

A weak cold front was draped from northwest IL thru northern MO
early this evening and was producing very little in the way of
clouds and no rain. This front is expected to move thru our region
uneventfully this evening and early overnight, before stalling out
and eventually retreating to the north as a warm front late. When
this does happen, scattered convection is expected to break out
along the front as it pushes thru the TAF sites thru mid Wednesday
morning. Have added VCSH for now for timing purposes but there
will also be a threat for thunder as well, but can escalate later
this evening. Some fog is also expected, especially at SUS and
CPS, but will be in a narrower window than last night due to the
expected clouds and convection firing along the warm front. VFR
conditions are then expected for the remainder of the TAF period
from late Wednesday morning on as the entire area moves into a
warm sector setup. Surface winds will become S-SW as the warm
front moves thru.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions outside of rain are expected
thru the period. A small window early Wednesday morning for rain
is anticipated as a warm front moves thru. An outside chance for
some VSBY reductions in mist late tonight as well, but small
enough to preclude mention in the TAF at this time.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 192357
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Morning and early afternoon convection associated with a mid/upper
level shortwave has moved east of the CWA. Cold front approaching
from the northwest is sparking a few thunderstorms across extreme
northeast Missouri. Will watch this convection over the next hour
and decide how far south to forecast thunderstorms this evening
with the front.

Front is expected to settle into a northwest to southeast
orientation overnight from near Kansas City area to southern
Illinois. Model guidance is not as enthusiastic with convection
developing overnight - but with front in vicinity and low level
jet can`t rule out elevated convection. Have maintained chance
POPs for now and will let evening shift determine need to increase
or decrease by NOWCast.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Story will be the HEAT and HUMIDITY. It`s finally going to feel
like summer with the first real heat wave beginning tomorrow. Have
decided to hoist an Excessive Heat Warning for the urban zones of
the Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Temperatures will be in
the middle 90s tomorrow and rise into the upper 90s through at
least Sunday. The long duration of afternoon/early evening heat
index values around 105 degrees will cause life threatening
conditions for those that do not have access to air conditioning.

Outside of the urban areas, the heat will increase, but not reach
advisory levels until Friday. Will let later shifts access the
need for additional heat headlines.

There is still a chance, albiet slight, for thunderstorms to
develop on Wednesday as the warm front lifts through the area.
After that, I`m not sure we will see any rain until next week when
a front moves south and stalls somewhere across the Midwest. If
the front does not make it far enough south - the heat headlines
will likely have to be extended into the next work week.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

A weak cold front was draped from northwest IL thru northern MO
early this evening and was producing very little in the way of
clouds and no rain. This front is expected to move thru our region
uneventfully this evening and early overnight, before stalling out
and eventually retreating to the north as a warm front late. When
this does happen, scattered convection is expected to break out
along the front as it pushes thru the TAF sites thru mid Wednesday
morning. Have added VCSH for now for timing purposes but there
will also be a threat for thunder as well, but can escalate later
this evening. Some fog is also expected, especially at SUS and
CPS, but will be in a narrower window than last night due to the
expected clouds and convection firing along the warm front. VFR
conditions are then expected for the remainder of the TAF period
from late Wednesday morning on as the entire area moves into a
warm sector setup. Surface winds will become S-SW as the warm
front moves thru.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions outside of rain are expected
thru the period. A small window early Wednesday morning for rain
is anticipated as a warm front moves thru. An outside chance for
some VSBY reductions in mist late tonight as well, but small
enough to preclude mention in the TAF at this time.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 192357
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Morning and early afternoon convection associated with a mid/upper
level shortwave has moved east of the CWA. Cold front approaching
from the northwest is sparking a few thunderstorms across extreme
northeast Missouri. Will watch this convection over the next hour
and decide how far south to forecast thunderstorms this evening
with the front.

Front is expected to settle into a northwest to southeast
orientation overnight from near Kansas City area to southern
Illinois. Model guidance is not as enthusiastic with convection
developing overnight - but with front in vicinity and low level
jet can`t rule out elevated convection. Have maintained chance
POPs for now and will let evening shift determine need to increase
or decrease by NOWCast.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Story will be the HEAT and HUMIDITY. It`s finally going to feel
like summer with the first real heat wave beginning tomorrow. Have
decided to hoist an Excessive Heat Warning for the urban zones of
the Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Temperatures will be in
the middle 90s tomorrow and rise into the upper 90s through at
least Sunday. The long duration of afternoon/early evening heat
index values around 105 degrees will cause life threatening
conditions for those that do not have access to air conditioning.

Outside of the urban areas, the heat will increase, but not reach
advisory levels until Friday. Will let later shifts access the
need for additional heat headlines.

There is still a chance, albiet slight, for thunderstorms to
develop on Wednesday as the warm front lifts through the area.
After that, I`m not sure we will see any rain until next week when
a front moves south and stalls somewhere across the Midwest. If
the front does not make it far enough south - the heat headlines
will likely have to be extended into the next work week.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

A weak cold front was draped from northwest IL thru northern MO
early this evening and was producing very little in the way of
clouds and no rain. This front is expected to move thru our region
uneventfully this evening and early overnight, before stalling out
and eventually retreating to the north as a warm front late. When
this does happen, scattered convection is expected to break out
along the front as it pushes thru the TAF sites thru mid Wednesday
morning. Have added VCSH for now for timing purposes but there
will also be a threat for thunder as well, but can escalate later
this evening. Some fog is also expected, especially at SUS and
CPS, but will be in a narrower window than last night due to the
expected clouds and convection firing along the warm front. VFR
conditions are then expected for the remainder of the TAF period
from late Wednesday morning on as the entire area moves into a
warm sector setup. Surface winds will become S-SW as the warm
front moves thru.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions outside of rain are expected
thru the period. A small window early Wednesday morning for rain
is anticipated as a warm front moves thru. An outside chance for
some VSBY reductions in mist late tonight as well, but small
enough to preclude mention in the TAF at this time.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 192347 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening and Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently building east into the Plains
this afternoon. The region remains in a northwest flow pattern
aloft ahead of the ridge. A weak upper level disturbance will ride
through this northwest flow and develop convection across eastern
Nebraska into western Iowa and northern Missouri tonight. This activity
will then track to the southeast tonight into Wednesday morning.
The upper level ridge is expected to push far enough to the east
tonight to keep this activity just to the north and east and area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region
on Wednesday and will then remain across the central U.S. through
this weekend. A hot and dry airmass will be in place across the
region during this time as highs generally top out in the middle
to upper 90s each afternoon. Lows will generally remain in the low
to mid 70s each night. Mixing is expected to lower surface
dewpoints each afternoon, keeping heat index values generally in
the 97 to 104 degree range each afternoon.

A dry and warm airmass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will
keep the region capped late this week into the weekend keeping the
region dry during this time frame.

An upper level shortwave trough will push east across the northern
Plains early next week and will flatten the ridge some and push a
front south toward the region. The front will likely stall and wash
out over or near the area early next week, but will still produce
the potential for a few storms and slightly cooler temperatures
across the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A rogue, isolated thunderstorm has developed just east of the SGF
aerodrome. This will quickly dissipate within the next hour. VFR
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure
aloft builds over the region and shifts the storm track to our
northeast. Winds will be southerly tonight, becoming southwesterly
and gusty during the day Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan





000
FXUS63 KSGF 192347 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening and Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently building east into the Plains
this afternoon. The region remains in a northwest flow pattern
aloft ahead of the ridge. A weak upper level disturbance will ride
through this northwest flow and develop convection across eastern
Nebraska into western Iowa and northern Missouri tonight. This activity
will then track to the southeast tonight into Wednesday morning.
The upper level ridge is expected to push far enough to the east
tonight to keep this activity just to the north and east and area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region
on Wednesday and will then remain across the central U.S. through
this weekend. A hot and dry airmass will be in place across the
region during this time as highs generally top out in the middle
to upper 90s each afternoon. Lows will generally remain in the low
to mid 70s each night. Mixing is expected to lower surface
dewpoints each afternoon, keeping heat index values generally in
the 97 to 104 degree range each afternoon.

A dry and warm airmass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will
keep the region capped late this week into the weekend keeping the
region dry during this time frame.

An upper level shortwave trough will push east across the northern
Plains early next week and will flatten the ridge some and push a
front south toward the region. The front will likely stall and wash
out over or near the area early next week, but will still produce
the potential for a few storms and slightly cooler temperatures
across the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A rogue, isolated thunderstorm has developed just east of the SGF
aerodrome. This will quickly dissipate within the next hour. VFR
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure
aloft builds over the region and shifts the storm track to our
northeast. Winds will be southerly tonight, becoming southwesterly
and gusty during the day Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 192345
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
645 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Tonight:

Models continue to indicate a northwest to southeast area of rain
late tonight. This closely corresponds to an area of strong theta-e
convergence as the moist low-level jet noses into the area. This
should also be the transition area to the strong elevated mixed
layer which should then cap the area off through the mid to late
part of the week. Have maintained the chance PoPs but trimmed the
western edge of them to confine them to the northeastern half of the
forecast area. There may be a fair amount of instability for storms
to work with, possibly as much as 2000 J/kg, but shear looks marginal
to support storm organization. So there may be a few strong storms
develop with marginally severe hail and strong winds possible.
Precipitable water values will range in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range so
localized heavy rain is also likely. This could pose a localized
flooding risk, especially over areas that have seen heavy rainfall in
the last few days to week.

Wednesday - Thursday:

Warmer air aloft will move over the region which should inhibit
convective chances across the area. But this will lead to very warm
and humid conditions with highs in the mid to upper 90s likely by
Thursday. Thursday may get off to a very warm start as it looks like
the area will remain well mixed overnight, keeping low temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in the urban core of Kansas
City. As temperatures aloft warm into the 22C to 26C range during the
day at 850mb, surface temperatures will climb into the mid to upper
90s. With dewpoints in the low 70s resulting in high humidity around
peak heating, heat indices will range from 100 to 105 across the
area. So Thursday is looking like an oppressive day with the heat and
humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Warm and continued humid conditions expected early on in the period
as amplified upper ridging remains in place over the area. With
850-hPa temps still ranging in the low-mid 20C range...expect high
temps to once again climb into the lower to middle 90s across much of
the area on Saturday. Fcst becomes a bit more clouded by the latter
stages of the weekend as persistent upper ridge across the lwr/mid-
Miss Rvr Vly begins to shift east in advance of northern Rockies
upper-level low. As this occurs...models advertise the arrival of a
cold front but questions still remain as guidance continues to
disagree on frontal timing. The Canadian GEM advertises its arrival
as early as Sunday...while the GFS and ECMWF suggest the feature will
hold off for at least another 24-hrs with precip chances increasing
Sunday night into Monday. For now...have elected to offer a middle of
the road solution which brings initial chc for convection into the
area Saturday night thanks to a strengthening low-level jet...with
additional chances again increasing Sunday night into Monday. In any
event...southward sagging front should finally allow some cooler air
into the area early next week as clouds and precip remain on the
docket as front stalls over/near the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Should see VFR conditions through the forecast.

Weak frontal boundary across northern MO likely to focus any
convection over this area and away from the terminals overnight.
Model soundings develop a strong low-level inversion overnight with
marginal LLWS conditions between 06z-13z. Will leave out of the
forecast but monitor this evening. Strong mixing Wednesday afternoon
should produce winds in excess of 12kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192345
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
645 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Tonight:

Models continue to indicate a northwest to southeast area of rain
late tonight. This closely corresponds to an area of strong theta-e
convergence as the moist low-level jet noses into the area. This
should also be the transition area to the strong elevated mixed
layer which should then cap the area off through the mid to late
part of the week. Have maintained the chance PoPs but trimmed the
western edge of them to confine them to the northeastern half of the
forecast area. There may be a fair amount of instability for storms
to work with, possibly as much as 2000 J/kg, but shear looks marginal
to support storm organization. So there may be a few strong storms
develop with marginally severe hail and strong winds possible.
Precipitable water values will range in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range so
localized heavy rain is also likely. This could pose a localized
flooding risk, especially over areas that have seen heavy rainfall in
the last few days to week.

Wednesday - Thursday:

Warmer air aloft will move over the region which should inhibit
convective chances across the area. But this will lead to very warm
and humid conditions with highs in the mid to upper 90s likely by
Thursday. Thursday may get off to a very warm start as it looks like
the area will remain well mixed overnight, keeping low temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in the urban core of Kansas
City. As temperatures aloft warm into the 22C to 26C range during the
day at 850mb, surface temperatures will climb into the mid to upper
90s. With dewpoints in the low 70s resulting in high humidity around
peak heating, heat indices will range from 100 to 105 across the
area. So Thursday is looking like an oppressive day with the heat and
humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Warm and continued humid conditions expected early on in the period
as amplified upper ridging remains in place over the area. With
850-hPa temps still ranging in the low-mid 20C range...expect high
temps to once again climb into the lower to middle 90s across much of
the area on Saturday. Fcst becomes a bit more clouded by the latter
stages of the weekend as persistent upper ridge across the lwr/mid-
Miss Rvr Vly begins to shift east in advance of northern Rockies
upper-level low. As this occurs...models advertise the arrival of a
cold front but questions still remain as guidance continues to
disagree on frontal timing. The Canadian GEM advertises its arrival
as early as Sunday...while the GFS and ECMWF suggest the feature will
hold off for at least another 24-hrs with precip chances increasing
Sunday night into Monday. For now...have elected to offer a middle of
the road solution which brings initial chc for convection into the
area Saturday night thanks to a strengthening low-level jet...with
additional chances again increasing Sunday night into Monday. In any
event...southward sagging front should finally allow some cooler air
into the area early next week as clouds and precip remain on the
docket as front stalls over/near the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Should see VFR conditions through the forecast.

Weak frontal boundary across northern MO likely to focus any
convection over this area and away from the terminals overnight.
Model soundings develop a strong low-level inversion overnight with
marginal LLWS conditions between 06z-13z. Will leave out of the
forecast but monitor this evening. Strong mixing Wednesday afternoon
should produce winds in excess of 12kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192345
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
645 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Tonight:

Models continue to indicate a northwest to southeast area of rain
late tonight. This closely corresponds to an area of strong theta-e
convergence as the moist low-level jet noses into the area. This
should also be the transition area to the strong elevated mixed
layer which should then cap the area off through the mid to late
part of the week. Have maintained the chance PoPs but trimmed the
western edge of them to confine them to the northeastern half of the
forecast area. There may be a fair amount of instability for storms
to work with, possibly as much as 2000 J/kg, but shear looks marginal
to support storm organization. So there may be a few strong storms
develop with marginally severe hail and strong winds possible.
Precipitable water values will range in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range so
localized heavy rain is also likely. This could pose a localized
flooding risk, especially over areas that have seen heavy rainfall in
the last few days to week.

Wednesday - Thursday:

Warmer air aloft will move over the region which should inhibit
convective chances across the area. But this will lead to very warm
and humid conditions with highs in the mid to upper 90s likely by
Thursday. Thursday may get off to a very warm start as it looks like
the area will remain well mixed overnight, keeping low temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in the urban core of Kansas
City. As temperatures aloft warm into the 22C to 26C range during the
day at 850mb, surface temperatures will climb into the mid to upper
90s. With dewpoints in the low 70s resulting in high humidity around
peak heating, heat indices will range from 100 to 105 across the
area. So Thursday is looking like an oppressive day with the heat and
humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Warm and continued humid conditions expected early on in the period
as amplified upper ridging remains in place over the area. With
850-hPa temps still ranging in the low-mid 20C range...expect high
temps to once again climb into the lower to middle 90s across much of
the area on Saturday. Fcst becomes a bit more clouded by the latter
stages of the weekend as persistent upper ridge across the lwr/mid-
Miss Rvr Vly begins to shift east in advance of northern Rockies
upper-level low. As this occurs...models advertise the arrival of a
cold front but questions still remain as guidance continues to
disagree on frontal timing. The Canadian GEM advertises its arrival
as early as Sunday...while the GFS and ECMWF suggest the feature will
hold off for at least another 24-hrs with precip chances increasing
Sunday night into Monday. For now...have elected to offer a middle of
the road solution which brings initial chc for convection into the
area Saturday night thanks to a strengthening low-level jet...with
additional chances again increasing Sunday night into Monday. In any
event...southward sagging front should finally allow some cooler air
into the area early next week as clouds and precip remain on the
docket as front stalls over/near the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Should see VFR conditions through the forecast.

Weak frontal boundary across northern MO likely to focus any
convection over this area and away from the terminals overnight.
Model soundings develop a strong low-level inversion overnight with
marginal LLWS conditions between 06z-13z. Will leave out of the
forecast but monitor this evening. Strong mixing Wednesday afternoon
should produce winds in excess of 12kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 192345
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
645 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Tonight:

Models continue to indicate a northwest to southeast area of rain
late tonight. This closely corresponds to an area of strong theta-e
convergence as the moist low-level jet noses into the area. This
should also be the transition area to the strong elevated mixed
layer which should then cap the area off through the mid to late
part of the week. Have maintained the chance PoPs but trimmed the
western edge of them to confine them to the northeastern half of the
forecast area. There may be a fair amount of instability for storms
to work with, possibly as much as 2000 J/kg, but shear looks marginal
to support storm organization. So there may be a few strong storms
develop with marginally severe hail and strong winds possible.
Precipitable water values will range in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range so
localized heavy rain is also likely. This could pose a localized
flooding risk, especially over areas that have seen heavy rainfall in
the last few days to week.

Wednesday - Thursday:

Warmer air aloft will move over the region which should inhibit
convective chances across the area. But this will lead to very warm
and humid conditions with highs in the mid to upper 90s likely by
Thursday. Thursday may get off to a very warm start as it looks like
the area will remain well mixed overnight, keeping low temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in the urban core of Kansas
City. As temperatures aloft warm into the 22C to 26C range during the
day at 850mb, surface temperatures will climb into the mid to upper
90s. With dewpoints in the low 70s resulting in high humidity around
peak heating, heat indices will range from 100 to 105 across the
area. So Thursday is looking like an oppressive day with the heat and
humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Warm and continued humid conditions expected early on in the period
as amplified upper ridging remains in place over the area. With
850-hPa temps still ranging in the low-mid 20C range...expect high
temps to once again climb into the lower to middle 90s across much of
the area on Saturday. Fcst becomes a bit more clouded by the latter
stages of the weekend as persistent upper ridge across the lwr/mid-
Miss Rvr Vly begins to shift east in advance of northern Rockies
upper-level low. As this occurs...models advertise the arrival of a
cold front but questions still remain as guidance continues to
disagree on frontal timing. The Canadian GEM advertises its arrival
as early as Sunday...while the GFS and ECMWF suggest the feature will
hold off for at least another 24-hrs with precip chances increasing
Sunday night into Monday. For now...have elected to offer a middle of
the road solution which brings initial chc for convection into the
area Saturday night thanks to a strengthening low-level jet...with
additional chances again increasing Sunday night into Monday. In any
event...southward sagging front should finally allow some cooler air
into the area early next week as clouds and precip remain on the
docket as front stalls over/near the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Should see VFR conditions through the forecast.

Weak frontal boundary across northern MO likely to focus any
convection over this area and away from the terminals overnight.
Model soundings develop a strong low-level inversion overnight with
marginal LLWS conditions between 06z-13z. Will leave out of the
forecast but monitor this evening. Strong mixing Wednesday afternoon
should produce winds in excess of 12kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KLSX 192030
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Morning and early afternoon convection associated with a mid/upper
level shortwave has moved east of the CWA. Cold front approaching
from the northwest is sparking a few thunderstorms across extreme
northeast Missouri. Will watch this convection over the next hour
and decide how far south to forecast thunderstorms this evening
with the front.

Front is expected to settle into a northwest to southeast
orientation overnight from near Kansas City area to southern
Illinois. Model guidance is not as enthusiastic with convection
developing overnight - but with front in vicinity and low level
jet can`t rule out elevated convection. Have maintained chance
POPs for now and will let evening shift determine need to increase
or decrease by NOWCast.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Story will be the HEAT and HUMIDITY. It`s finally going to feel
like summer with the first real heat wave beginning tomorrow. Have
decided to hoist an Excessive Heat Warning for the urban zones of
the Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Temperatures will be in
the middle 90s tomorrow and rise into the upper 90s through at
least Sunday. The long duration of afternoon/early evening heat
index values around 105 degrees will cause life threatening
conditions for those that do not have access to air conditioning.

Outside of the urban areas, the heat will increase, but not reach
advisory levels until Friday. Will let later shifts access the
need for additional heat headlines.

There is still a chance, albiet slight, for thunderstorms to
develop on Wednesday as the warm front lifts through the area.
After that, I`m not sure we will see any rain until next week when
a front moves south and stalls somewhere across the Midwest. If
the front does not make it far enough south - the heat headlines
will likely have to be extended into the next work week.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Showers and thunderstorms have moved east of taf sites, but could
still see some redevelopment as front moves through. Confidence is
low on coverage and timing, so kept tafs dry for now. Otherwise,
south to southwest winds to become westerly behind boundary. Then
winds to become light and variable this evening, before picking
back up from the southwest on Wednesday. Some models indicating
activity firing north of frontal boundary as it lifts back north
through region later tonight. But once again confidence on timing
and coverage hard to pin down, so kept tafs dry.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms have moved east of metro area, but could
still see some redevelopment as front moves through. Confidence is
low on coverage and timing, so kept taf dry for now. Otherwise,
south to southwest winds to become westerly behind boundary after
20z Tuesday. Then winds to become light and variable by 01z Wednesday,
before picking back up from the southwest 17z Wednesday. Some models
indicating activity firing north of frontal boundary as it lifts
back north through region later tonight. But once again confidence
on timing and coverage hard to pin down, so kept taf dry.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Sunday
     FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 192013
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
313 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Tonight:

Models continue to indicate a northwest to southeast area of rain
late tonight. This closely corresponds to an area of strong theta-e
convergence as the moist low-level jet noses into the area. This
should also be the transition area to the strong elevated mixed
layer which should then cap the area off through the mid to late
part of the week. Have maintained the chance PoPs but trimmed the
western edge of them to confine them to the northeastern half of the
forecast area. There may be a fair amount of instability for storms
to work with, possibly as much as 2000 J/kg, but shear looks marginal
to support storm organization. So there may be a few strong storms
develop with marginally severe hail and strong winds possible.
Precipitable water values will range in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range so
localized heavy rain is also likely. This could pose a localized
flooding risk, especially over areas that have seen heavy rainfall in
the last few days to week.

Wednesday - Thursday:

Warmer air aloft will move over the region which should inhibit
convective chances across the area. But this will lead to very warm
and humid conditions with highs in the mid to upper 90s likely by
Thursday. Thursday may get off to a very warm start as it looks like
the area will remain well mixed overnight, keeping low temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in the urban core of Kansas
City. As temperatures aloft warm into the 22C to 26C range during the
day at 850mb, surface temperatures will climb into the mid to upper
90s. With dewpoints in the low 70s resulting in high humidity around
peak heating, heat indices will range from 100 to 105 across the
area. So Thursday is looking like an oppressive day with the heat and
humidity.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Warm and continued humid conditions expected early on in the period
as amplified upper ridging remains in place over the area. With
850-hPa temps still ranging in the low-mid 20C range...expect high
temps to once again climb into the lower to middle 90s across much of
the area on Saturday. Fcst becomes a bit more clouded by the latter
stages of the weekend as persistent upper ridge across the lwr/mid-
Miss Rvr Vly begins to shift east in advance of northern Rockies
upper-level low. As this occurs...models advertise the arrival of a
cold front but questions still remain as guidance continues to
disagree on frontal timing. The Canadian GEM advertises its arrival
as early as Sunday...while the GFS and ECMWF suggest the feature will
hold off for at least another 24-hrs with precip chances increasing
Sunday night into Monday. For now...have elected to offer a middle of
the road solution which brings initial chc for convection into the
area Saturday night thanks to a strengthening low-level jet...with
additional chances again increasing Sunday night into Monday. In any
event...southward sagging front should finally allow some cooler air
into the area early next week as clouds and precip remain on the
docket as front stalls over/near the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals tonight with light and
variable winds becoming light from the south to southeast. Any
thunderstorm chances look to be to the north and east of the
terminals from far northwestern Missouri through northern and central
Missouri.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 192013
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
313 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Tonight:

Models continue to indicate a northwest to southeast area of rain
late tonight. This closely corresponds to an area of strong theta-e
convergence as the moist low-level jet noses into the area. This
should also be the transition area to the strong elevated mixed
layer which should then cap the area off through the mid to late
part of the week. Have maintained the chance PoPs but trimmed the
western edge of them to confine them to the northeastern half of the
forecast area. There may be a fair amount of instability for storms
to work with, possibly as much as 2000 J/kg, but shear looks marginal
to support storm organization. So there may be a few strong storms
develop with marginally severe hail and strong winds possible.
Precipitable water values will range in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range so
localized heavy rain is also likely. This could pose a localized
flooding risk, especially over areas that have seen heavy rainfall in
the last few days to week.

Wednesday - Thursday:

Warmer air aloft will move over the region which should inhibit
convective chances across the area. But this will lead to very warm
and humid conditions with highs in the mid to upper 90s likely by
Thursday. Thursday may get off to a very warm start as it looks like
the area will remain well mixed overnight, keeping low temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in the urban core of Kansas
City. As temperatures aloft warm into the 22C to 26C range during the
day at 850mb, surface temperatures will climb into the mid to upper
90s. With dewpoints in the low 70s resulting in high humidity around
peak heating, heat indices will range from 100 to 105 across the
area. So Thursday is looking like an oppressive day with the heat and
humidity.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Warm and continued humid conditions expected early on in the period
as amplified upper ridging remains in place over the area. With
850-hPa temps still ranging in the low-mid 20C range...expect high
temps to once again climb into the lower to middle 90s across much of
the area on Saturday. Fcst becomes a bit more clouded by the latter
stages of the weekend as persistent upper ridge across the lwr/mid-
Miss Rvr Vly begins to shift east in advance of northern Rockies
upper-level low. As this occurs...models advertise the arrival of a
cold front but questions still remain as guidance continues to
disagree on frontal timing. The Canadian GEM advertises its arrival
as early as Sunday...while the GFS and ECMWF suggest the feature will
hold off for at least another 24-hrs with precip chances increasing
Sunday night into Monday. For now...have elected to offer a middle of
the road solution which brings initial chc for convection into the
area Saturday night thanks to a strengthening low-level jet...with
additional chances again increasing Sunday night into Monday. In any
event...southward sagging front should finally allow some cooler air
into the area early next week as clouds and precip remain on the
docket as front stalls over/near the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals tonight with light and
variable winds becoming light from the south to southeast. Any
thunderstorm chances look to be to the north and east of the
terminals from far northwestern Missouri through northern and central
Missouri.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KSGF 191947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening and Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently building east into the Plains
this afternoon. The region remains in a northwest flow pattern
aloft ahead of the ridge. A weak upper level disturbance will ride
through this northwest flow and develop convection across eastern
Nebraska into western Iowa and northern Missouri tonight. This activity
will then track to the southeast tonight into Wednesday morning.
The upper level ridge is expected to push far enough to the east
tonight to keep this activity just to the north and east and area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region
on Wednesday and will then remain across the central U.S. through
this weekend. A hot and dry airmass will be in place across the
region during this time as highs generally top out in the middle
to upper 90s each afternoon. Lows will generally remain in the low
to mid 70s each night. Mixing is expected to lower surface
dewpoints each afternoon, keeping heat index values generally in
the 97 to 104 degree range each afternoon.

A dry and warm airmass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will
keep the region capped late this week into the weekend keeping the
region dry during this time frame.

An upper level shortwave trough will push east across the northern
Plains early next week and will flatten the ridge some and push a
front south toward the region. The front will likely stall and wash
out over or near the area early next week, but will still produce
the potential for a few storms and slightly cooler temperatures
across the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Convection from earlier has quickly diminished across the region
with a few showers left up by the Lake of the Ozarks region.
Expecting VFR conditions through the period with winds backing to
the south this afternoon/evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg









000
FXUS63 KSGF 191947
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening and Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level ridge is currently building east into the Plains
this afternoon. The region remains in a northwest flow pattern
aloft ahead of the ridge. A weak upper level disturbance will ride
through this northwest flow and develop convection across eastern
Nebraska into western Iowa and northern Missouri tonight. This activity
will then track to the southeast tonight into Wednesday morning.
The upper level ridge is expected to push far enough to the east
tonight to keep this activity just to the north and east and area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region
on Wednesday and will then remain across the central U.S. through
this weekend. A hot and dry airmass will be in place across the
region during this time as highs generally top out in the middle
to upper 90s each afternoon. Lows will generally remain in the low
to mid 70s each night. Mixing is expected to lower surface
dewpoints each afternoon, keeping heat index values generally in
the 97 to 104 degree range each afternoon.

A dry and warm airmass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will
keep the region capped late this week into the weekend keeping the
region dry during this time frame.

An upper level shortwave trough will push east across the northern
Plains early next week and will flatten the ridge some and push a
front south toward the region. The front will likely stall and wash
out over or near the area early next week, but will still produce
the potential for a few storms and slightly cooler temperatures
across the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Convection from earlier has quickly diminished across the region
with a few showers left up by the Lake of the Ozarks region.
Expecting VFR conditions through the period with winds backing to
the south this afternoon/evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KLSX 191741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Focus thru this period will be temps thru the period.

Mdls pull the sfc fnt NE of the area tomorrow evening. Can not
rule out isod to sct storms as this fnt lifts newd. Beyond
tomorrow night, chances for precip are nearly non-existent until
next week, but more on that later.

The GEM is currently the only mdl that does not build the upper
ridge into the region. Have therefore ignored the GEM for this
forecast package and trended twd an overall compromise of the
remaining guidance. Thurs still appears to be the start of the
warmest day and continued with a persistence forecast thru the
weekend. The rainfall late last week and over the weekend will
help boost evapotranspiration boosting the dewpoints well into the
70s.

Mdl solns begin to diverge late this weekend as the upper low over
the CA coast finally ejects into the Plains. The GFS suggests the
upper ridge will break down sooner than the ECMWF. Regardless, the
ECMWF also breaks down the ridge by Mon which may allow for the
sfc fnt to approach close enuf for storms to impact at least the
nrn portions of the CWA late Sun and thru Mon. With mdls in
agreement of the ridge breaking down by Mon, have slightly cooler
temps for Mon and will not extend the going headline beyond Sun.
Areas beyond the current watch may eventually need some sort of
heat headline due to a combination of temps in the 90s and high
dewpoints. Will hold off with additional headlines for now.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Showers and thunderstorms have moved east of taf sites, but could
still see some redevelopment as front moves through. Confidence is
low on coverage and timing, so kept tafs dry for now. Otherwise,
south to southwest winds to become westerly behind boundary. Then
winds to become light and variable this evening, before picking
back up from the southwest on Wednesday. Some models indicating
activity firing north of frontal boundary as it lifts back north
through region later tonight. But once again confidence on timing
and coverage hard to pin down, so kept tafs dry.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms have moved east of metro area, but could
still see some redevelopment as front moves through. Confidence is
low on coverage and timing, so kept taf dry for now. Otherwise,
south to southwest winds to become westerly behind boundary after
20z Tuesday. Then winds to become light and variable by 01z Wednesday,
before picking back up from the southwest 17z Wednesday. Some models
indicating activity firing north of frontal boundary as it lifts
back north through region later tonight. But once again confidence
on timing and coverage hard to pin down, so kept taf dry.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 191741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Focus thru this period will be temps thru the period.

Mdls pull the sfc fnt NE of the area tomorrow evening. Can not
rule out isod to sct storms as this fnt lifts newd. Beyond
tomorrow night, chances for precip are nearly non-existent until
next week, but more on that later.

The GEM is currently the only mdl that does not build the upper
ridge into the region. Have therefore ignored the GEM for this
forecast package and trended twd an overall compromise of the
remaining guidance. Thurs still appears to be the start of the
warmest day and continued with a persistence forecast thru the
weekend. The rainfall late last week and over the weekend will
help boost evapotranspiration boosting the dewpoints well into the
70s.

Mdl solns begin to diverge late this weekend as the upper low over
the CA coast finally ejects into the Plains. The GFS suggests the
upper ridge will break down sooner than the ECMWF. Regardless, the
ECMWF also breaks down the ridge by Mon which may allow for the
sfc fnt to approach close enuf for storms to impact at least the
nrn portions of the CWA late Sun and thru Mon. With mdls in
agreement of the ridge breaking down by Mon, have slightly cooler
temps for Mon and will not extend the going headline beyond Sun.
Areas beyond the current watch may eventually need some sort of
heat headline due to a combination of temps in the 90s and high
dewpoints. Will hold off with additional headlines for now.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Showers and thunderstorms have moved east of taf sites, but could
still see some redevelopment as front moves through. Confidence is
low on coverage and timing, so kept tafs dry for now. Otherwise,
south to southwest winds to become westerly behind boundary. Then
winds to become light and variable this evening, before picking
back up from the southwest on Wednesday. Some models indicating
activity firing north of frontal boundary as it lifts back north
through region later tonight. But once again confidence on timing
and coverage hard to pin down, so kept tafs dry.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms have moved east of metro area, but could
still see some redevelopment as front moves through. Confidence is
low on coverage and timing, so kept taf dry for now. Otherwise,
south to southwest winds to become westerly behind boundary after
20z Tuesday. Then winds to become light and variable by 01z Wednesday,
before picking back up from the southwest 17z Wednesday. Some models
indicating activity firing north of frontal boundary as it lifts
back north through region later tonight. But once again confidence
on timing and coverage hard to pin down, so kept taf dry.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 191709
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Sent an update to the forecast to account for and track east the
storms the developed from Lafayette to Clinton counties, just east of
the KEAX 88-D. These seem to have developed ahead of a weak MCV and
low level/surface trough, noted by the convergent surface winds
between KC and observations to the east of KC. The threat of severe
weather appears to be low at this point as instability is not very
robust and wind shear is weak.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

More nocturnal convection is effecting the region this morning as a
shortwave trough swings east through the northern and central
Plains. The transiting trough has helped focus a modest low level
jet --from southwest at 20 to 30 knots-- across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri. Rustling moisture convergence and isentropic
assent has ultimately forced convection to develop despite the warm
air aloft. Veering jet this morning has already shifted to
prevailing from due west as the parent trough slides slowly into the
western Great Lakes. This resulted in the rapid development of a
broken line of thunderstorms from north to south from northwest
Missouri to the southern border of Kansas as of this writing.

Model guidance has been of little help this morning as even the
hi-res models have struggled to correctly forecast where and when
this potential convection would get started. However, ongoing
activity has been around long enough for some of the hi-res
models to ingest said data and start spitting out more realistic
solutions. To wit, expect the current broken line of storms to push
a bit farther east early this morning but that the activity will
also slowly decrease as it moves away from the best moisture
transport occurring with the low level jet. Do not expect this
activity to persist past sunrise much, and what does persist will
likely be fading away. Anticipate updating POPs several times early
this morning to keep up with the convection location. These early
morning storms will be capable of producing torrential rain, small
hail and locally gusty sub-severe winds.

Another night of potential convection may be in store for later
tonight as the ridge axis to our west shifts northeast, inducing a
fair amount of warm air advection aloft over the Central Plains.
This looks to set up a potential corridor of storm activity again
tonight perpendicular to tonight`s expected southwest low level jet,
roughly along an axis from the northwest corner of Missouri into
central Missouri. Models really advertise this potential developing
after midnight, but thoughts are that warm air advection storms tend
to develop faster than the models forecast. Therefore have slight
chance POPs in the forecast as early as this evening. Shear and
instability both indicate that small hail and locally gusty winds
may be an issue with storms again, but with precipitable water values in
the 1.75 inch range torrential rain will likely accompany all
storms. Wont issue any hydro-watches with this forecast package as
confidence in location and timing are still a bit iffy, but if any
storms can train across the same areas flooding will quickly result
especially across northern Missouri where heavy rains fell this past
weekend.

Looking forward through the work week, the ridge axis building in
will result in the arrival of the dog-days-of-summer. Hot and humid
conditions, more typical of August than our wonderful bout of cool
temperatures would lead your to believe of late, will continue to
push into the Central Plains through the end of the work week. The
primary effects this has on the forecast is to force potential
convection later in the week to our north. This will leave far
northern Missouri with a fleeting on-again-off-again chance for
storms as activity roles from Nebraska into Iowa, but much of the
rest of Kansas and Missouri will miss out on this precipitation.
What we will get instead is hot and humid conditions with heat index
values likely bubbling up over 100 degrees through the later half of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals tonight with light and
variable winds becoming light from the south to southeast. Any
thunderstorm chances look to be to the north and east of the
terminals from far northwestern Missouri through northern and central
Missouri.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to spread east into the Missouri Ozarks early this
morning. We expect this activity to survive until at least U.S. 65
as the incoming system cold pool and a veered low level jet
continue to promote new updrafts along the eastern/southeastern
flank of this cluster. Although deep layer shear is rather weak
across the region, instability remains rather robust which will
support a few updrafts putting down mainly sub-severe hail. The
system cold pool with this cluster is not all that strong, so we
do not believe it poses a severe wind threat. A localized gust
over 50 mph will still be possible with any stronger individual
cells within the cluster.

As we get from mid-morning onward, the fate of this convection is
in question. It is possible that it takes a turn south and
follows the better instability into eastern Oklahoma/western
Arkansas. It is also possible that it just slowly dissipates as it
outruns better instability east of U.S. 65. We will have to watch
for some renewed development this afternoon across the eastern
Ozarks along any outflow boundaries. The morning convection and
remnant cloud cover could have a play on high temperatures this
afternoon. Current thinking is that the convection and clouds will
exit fast enough to allow us to warm up to temperatures similar
to, or even slightly warmer than those of Monday afternoon.

We are then expecting more thunderstorm development later tonight
across the Corn Belt as a broad low level jet stream impinges on
a low level frontal boundary. It is possible that some of this
activity could clip central Missouri late tonight, but most of it
should remain across northern Missouri. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Long wave charts then continue to indicate that a long wave ridge of
high pressure will strengthen from the Mid-South up into the
Appalachian States. This pattern will favor a synoptic scale ridge
strengthening over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. Hot
conditions are therefore expected for the Missouri Ozarks from
midweek through the upcoming weekend. Highs in the middle to upper
90s are expected with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

One item that we remain a bit unclear on is surface dew points and
resultant heat indices. The synoptic scale pattern does show low
level moisture trajectories off of the western Gulf of Mexico, but
any moisture advection would initially stream into the southern
Plains before then advecting northeast into the Ozarks.
Interestingly, patterns such as this can promote fairly high mixing
heights. This would support the potential to mix down drier air to
the surface in the afternoons, especially along the higher terrain
of the Ozark Plateau. With that being said, we have generally kept
afternoon heat indices in the 97 to 104 degree range for now.

Long wave charts then indicate that the ridge may lose some
amplitude and shift slightly east early next week. This may open the
door to a front slipping into the region and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Convection from earlier has quickly diminished across the region
with a few showers left up by the Lake of the Ozarks region.
Expecting VFR conditions through the period with winds backing to
the south this afternoon/evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to spread east into the Missouri Ozarks early this
morning. We expect this activity to survive until at least U.S. 65
as the incoming system cold pool and a veered low level jet
continue to promote new updrafts along the eastern/southeastern
flank of this cluster. Although deep layer shear is rather weak
across the region, instability remains rather robust which will
support a few updrafts putting down mainly sub-severe hail. The
system cold pool with this cluster is not all that strong, so we
do not believe it poses a severe wind threat. A localized gust
over 50 mph will still be possible with any stronger individual
cells within the cluster.

As we get from mid-morning onward, the fate of this convection is
in question. It is possible that it takes a turn south and
follows the better instability into eastern Oklahoma/western
Arkansas. It is also possible that it just slowly dissipates as it
outruns better instability east of U.S. 65. We will have to watch
for some renewed development this afternoon across the eastern
Ozarks along any outflow boundaries. The morning convection and
remnant cloud cover could have a play on high temperatures this
afternoon. Current thinking is that the convection and clouds will
exit fast enough to allow us to warm up to temperatures similar
to, or even slightly warmer than those of Monday afternoon.

We are then expecting more thunderstorm development later tonight
across the Corn Belt as a broad low level jet stream impinges on
a low level frontal boundary. It is possible that some of this
activity could clip central Missouri late tonight, but most of it
should remain across northern Missouri. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Long wave charts then continue to indicate that a long wave ridge of
high pressure will strengthen from the Mid-South up into the
Appalachian States. This pattern will favor a synoptic scale ridge
strengthening over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. Hot
conditions are therefore expected for the Missouri Ozarks from
midweek through the upcoming weekend. Highs in the middle to upper
90s are expected with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

One item that we remain a bit unclear on is surface dew points and
resultant heat indices. The synoptic scale pattern does show low
level moisture trajectories off of the western Gulf of Mexico, but
any moisture advection would initially stream into the southern
Plains before then advecting northeast into the Ozarks.
Interestingly, patterns such as this can promote fairly high mixing
heights. This would support the potential to mix down drier air to
the surface in the afternoons, especially along the higher terrain
of the Ozark Plateau. With that being said, we have generally kept
afternoon heat indices in the 97 to 104 degree range for now.

Long wave charts then indicate that the ridge may lose some
amplitude and shift slightly east early next week. This may open the
door to a front slipping into the region and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Convection from earlier has quickly diminished across the region
with a few showers left up by the Lake of the Ozarks region.
Expecting VFR conditions through the period with winds backing to
the south this afternoon/evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 191443
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
943 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Sent an update to the forecast to account for and track east the
storms the developed from Lafayette to Clinton counties, just east of
the KEAX 88-D. These seem to have developed ahead of a weak MCV and
low level/surface trough, noted by the convergent surface winds
between KC and observations to the east of KC. The threat of severe
weather appears to be low at this point as instability is not very
robust and wind shear is weak.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

More nocturnal convection is effecting the region this morning as a
shortwave trough swings east through the northern and central
Plains. The transiting trough has helped focus a modest low level
jet --from southwest at 20 to 30 knots-- across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri. Rustling moisture convergence and isentropic
assent has ultimately forced convection to develop despite the warm
air aloft. Veering jet this morning has already shifted to
prevailing from due west as the parent trough slides slowly into the
western Great Lakes. This resulted in the rapid development of a
broken line of thunderstorms from north to south from northwest
Missouri to the southern border of Kansas as of this writing.

Model guidance has been of little help this morning as even the
hi-res models have struggled to correctly forecast where and when
this potential convection would get started. However, ongoing
activity has been around long enough for some of the hi-res
models to ingest said data and start spitting out more realistic
solutions. To wit, expect the current broken line of storms to push
a bit farther east early this morning but that the activity will
also slowly decrease as it moves away from the best moisture
transport occurring with the low level jet. Do not expect this
activity to persist past sunrise much, and what does persist will
likely be fading away. Anticipate updating POPs several times early
this morning to keep up with the convection location. These early
morning storms will be capable of producing torrential rain, small
hail and locally gusty sub-severe winds.

Another night of potential convection may be in store for later
tonight as the ridge axis to our west shifts northeast, inducing a
fair amount of warm air advection aloft over the Central Plains.
This looks to set up a potential corridor of storm activity again
tonight perpendicular to tonight`s expected southwest low level jet,
roughly along an axis from the northwest corner of Missouri into
central Missouri. Models really advertise this potential developing
after midnight, but thoughts are that warm air advection storms tend
to develop faster than the models forecast. Therefore have slight
chance POPs in the forecast as early as this evening. Shear and
instability both indicate that small hail and locally gusty winds
may be an issue with storms again, but with precipitable water values in
the 1.75 inch range torrential rain will likely accompany all
storms. Wont issue any hydro-watches with this forecast package as
confidence in location and timing are still a bit iffy, but if any
storms can train across the same areas flooding will quickly result
especially across northern Missouri where heavy rains fell this past
weekend.

Looking forward through the work week, the ridge axis building in
will result in the arrival of the dog-days-of-summer. Hot and humid
conditions, more typical of August than our wonderful bout of cool
temperatures would lead your to believe of late, will continue to
push into the Central Plains through the end of the work week. The
primary effects this has on the forecast is to force potential
convection later in the week to our north. This will leave far
northern Missouri with a fleeting on-again-off-again chance for
storms as activity roles from Nebraska into Iowa, but much of the
rest of Kansas and Missouri will miss out on this precipitation.
What we will get instead is hot and humid conditions with heat index
values likely bubbling up over 100 degrees through the later half of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast concerns for the terminals are focused on the early hours of
this morning as KSTJ still has thunderstorms in its vicinity. Expect
these storms to move east and dissipate, likely by 13Z. Otherwise, a
weak front will wash out across the region today keeping surface
winds rather light and variable through the day. Winds should turn
more substantially to the south tonight as the pressure gradient
slightly tightens tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 191443
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
943 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Sent an update to the forecast to account for and track east the
storms the developed from Lafayette to Clinton counties, just east of
the KEAX 88-D. These seem to have developed ahead of a weak MCV and
low level/surface trough, noted by the convergent surface winds
between KC and observations to the east of KC. The threat of severe
weather appears to be low at this point as instability is not very
robust and wind shear is weak.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

More nocturnal convection is effecting the region this morning as a
shortwave trough swings east through the northern and central
Plains. The transiting trough has helped focus a modest low level
jet --from southwest at 20 to 30 knots-- across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri. Rustling moisture convergence and isentropic
assent has ultimately forced convection to develop despite the warm
air aloft. Veering jet this morning has already shifted to
prevailing from due west as the parent trough slides slowly into the
western Great Lakes. This resulted in the rapid development of a
broken line of thunderstorms from north to south from northwest
Missouri to the southern border of Kansas as of this writing.

Model guidance has been of little help this morning as even the
hi-res models have struggled to correctly forecast where and when
this potential convection would get started. However, ongoing
activity has been around long enough for some of the hi-res
models to ingest said data and start spitting out more realistic
solutions. To wit, expect the current broken line of storms to push
a bit farther east early this morning but that the activity will
also slowly decrease as it moves away from the best moisture
transport occurring with the low level jet. Do not expect this
activity to persist past sunrise much, and what does persist will
likely be fading away. Anticipate updating POPs several times early
this morning to keep up with the convection location. These early
morning storms will be capable of producing torrential rain, small
hail and locally gusty sub-severe winds.

Another night of potential convection may be in store for later
tonight as the ridge axis to our west shifts northeast, inducing a
fair amount of warm air advection aloft over the Central Plains.
This looks to set up a potential corridor of storm activity again
tonight perpendicular to tonight`s expected southwest low level jet,
roughly along an axis from the northwest corner of Missouri into
central Missouri. Models really advertise this potential developing
after midnight, but thoughts are that warm air advection storms tend
to develop faster than the models forecast. Therefore have slight
chance POPs in the forecast as early as this evening. Shear and
instability both indicate that small hail and locally gusty winds
may be an issue with storms again, but with precipitable water values in
the 1.75 inch range torrential rain will likely accompany all
storms. Wont issue any hydro-watches with this forecast package as
confidence in location and timing are still a bit iffy, but if any
storms can train across the same areas flooding will quickly result
especially across northern Missouri where heavy rains fell this past
weekend.

Looking forward through the work week, the ridge axis building in
will result in the arrival of the dog-days-of-summer. Hot and humid
conditions, more typical of August than our wonderful bout of cool
temperatures would lead your to believe of late, will continue to
push into the Central Plains through the end of the work week. The
primary effects this has on the forecast is to force potential
convection later in the week to our north. This will leave far
northern Missouri with a fleeting on-again-off-again chance for
storms as activity roles from Nebraska into Iowa, but much of the
rest of Kansas and Missouri will miss out on this precipitation.
What we will get instead is hot and humid conditions with heat index
values likely bubbling up over 100 degrees through the later half of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast concerns for the terminals are focused on the early hours of
this morning as KSTJ still has thunderstorms in its vicinity. Expect
these storms to move east and dissipate, likely by 13Z. Otherwise, a
weak front will wash out across the region today keeping surface
winds rather light and variable through the day. Winds should turn
more substantially to the south tonight as the pressure gradient
slightly tightens tonight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KSGF 191121
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
621 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to spread east into the Missouri Ozarks early this
morning. We expect this activity to survive until at least U.S. 65
as the incoming system cold pool and a veered low level jet
continue to promote new updrafts along the eastern/southeastern
flank of this cluster. Although deep layer shear is rather weak
across the region, instability remains rather robust which will
support a few updrafts putting down mainly sub-severe hail. The
system cold pool with this cluster is not all that strong, so we
do not believe it poses a severe wind threat. A localized gust
over 50 mph will still be possible with any stronger individual
cells within the cluster.

As we get from mid-morning onward, the fate of this convection is
in question. It is possible that it takes a turn south and
follows the better instability into eastern Oklahoma/western
Arkansas. It is also possible that it just slowly dissipates as it
outruns better instability east of U.S. 65. We will have to watch
for some renewed development this afternoon across the eastern
Ozarks along any outflow boundaries. The morning convection and
remnant cloud cover could have a play on high temperatures this
afternoon. Current thinking is that the convection and clouds will
exit fast enough to allow us to warm up to temperatures similar
to, or even slightly warmer than those of Monday afternoon.

We are then expecting more thunderstorm development later tonight
across the Corn Belt as a broad low level jet stream impinges on
a low level frontal boundary. It is possible that some of this
activity could clip central Missouri late tonight, but most of it
should remain across northern Missouri. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Long wave charts then continue to indicate that a long wave ridge of
high pressure will strengthen from the Mid-South up into the
Appalachian States. This pattern will favor a synoptic scale ridge
strengthening over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. Hot
conditions are therefore expected for the Missouri Ozarks from
midweek through the upcoming weekend. Highs in the middle to upper
90s are expected with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

One item that we remain a bit unclear on is surface dew points and
resultant heat indices. The synoptic scale pattern does show low
level moisture trajectories off of the western Gulf of Mexico, but
any moisture advection would initially stream into the southern
Plains before then advecting northeast into the Ozarks.
Interestingly, patterns such as this can promote fairly high mixing
heights. This would support the potential to mix down drier air to
the surface in the afternoons, especially along the higher terrain
of the Ozark Plateau. With that being said, we have generally kept
afternoon heat indices in the 97 to 104 degree range for now.

Long wave charts then indicate that the ridge may lose some
amplitude and shift slightly east early next week. This may open the
door to a front slipping into the region and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The convection over western Missouri seems to be on a downward
trend. As such...will remove mention altogether for KSGF and only
mention VCSH for KJLN til mid morning.

After that...expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the
forecast period. Winds could be a little gusty at KSGF and KJLN
from late morning through early evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 191121
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
621 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to spread east into the Missouri Ozarks early this
morning. We expect this activity to survive until at least U.S. 65
as the incoming system cold pool and a veered low level jet
continue to promote new updrafts along the eastern/southeastern
flank of this cluster. Although deep layer shear is rather weak
across the region, instability remains rather robust which will
support a few updrafts putting down mainly sub-severe hail. The
system cold pool with this cluster is not all that strong, so we
do not believe it poses a severe wind threat. A localized gust
over 50 mph will still be possible with any stronger individual
cells within the cluster.

As we get from mid-morning onward, the fate of this convection is
in question. It is possible that it takes a turn south and
follows the better instability into eastern Oklahoma/western
Arkansas. It is also possible that it just slowly dissipates as it
outruns better instability east of U.S. 65. We will have to watch
for some renewed development this afternoon across the eastern
Ozarks along any outflow boundaries. The morning convection and
remnant cloud cover could have a play on high temperatures this
afternoon. Current thinking is that the convection and clouds will
exit fast enough to allow us to warm up to temperatures similar
to, or even slightly warmer than those of Monday afternoon.

We are then expecting more thunderstorm development later tonight
across the Corn Belt as a broad low level jet stream impinges on
a low level frontal boundary. It is possible that some of this
activity could clip central Missouri late tonight, but most of it
should remain across northern Missouri. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Long wave charts then continue to indicate that a long wave ridge of
high pressure will strengthen from the Mid-South up into the
Appalachian States. This pattern will favor a synoptic scale ridge
strengthening over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. Hot
conditions are therefore expected for the Missouri Ozarks from
midweek through the upcoming weekend. Highs in the middle to upper
90s are expected with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

One item that we remain a bit unclear on is surface dew points and
resultant heat indices. The synoptic scale pattern does show low
level moisture trajectories off of the western Gulf of Mexico, but
any moisture advection would initially stream into the southern
Plains before then advecting northeast into the Ozarks.
Interestingly, patterns such as this can promote fairly high mixing
heights. This would support the potential to mix down drier air to
the surface in the afternoons, especially along the higher terrain
of the Ozark Plateau. With that being said, we have generally kept
afternoon heat indices in the 97 to 104 degree range for now.

Long wave charts then indicate that the ridge may lose some
amplitude and shift slightly east early next week. This may open the
door to a front slipping into the region and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The convection over western Missouri seems to be on a downward
trend. As such...will remove mention altogether for KSGF and only
mention VCSH for KJLN til mid morning.

After that...expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the
forecast period. Winds could be a little gusty at KSGF and KJLN
from late morning through early evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KEAX 191113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

More nocturnal convection is effecting the region this morning as a
shortwave trough swings east through the northern and central
Plains. The transiting trough has helped focus a modest low level
jet --from southwest at 20 to 30 knots-- across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri. Rustling moisture convergence and isentropic
assent has ultimately forced convection to develop despite the warm
air aloft. Veering jet this morning has already shifted to
prevailing from due west as the parent trough slides slowly into the
western Great Lakes. This resulted in the rapid development of a
broken line of thunderstorms from north to south from northwest
Missouri to the southern border of Kansas as of this writing.

Model guidance has been of little help this morning as even the
hi-res models have struggled to correctly forecast where and when
this potential convection would get started. However, ongoing
activity has been around long enough for some of the hi-res
models to ingest said data and start spitting out more realistic
solutions. To wit, expect the current broken line of storms to push
a bit farther east early this morning but that the activity will
also slowly decrease as it moves away from the best moisture
transport occurring with the low level jet. Do not expect this
activity to persist past sunrise much, and what does persist will
likely be fading away. Anticipate updating POPs several times early
this morning to keep up with the convection location. These early
morning storms will be capable of producing torrential rain, small
hail and locally gusty sub-severe winds.

Another night of potential convection may be in store for later
tonight as the ridge axis to our west shifts northeast, inducing a
fair amount of warm air advection aloft over the Central Plains.
This looks to set up a potential corridor of storm activity again
tonight perpendicular to tonight`s expected southwest low level jet,
roughly along an axis from the northwest corner of Missouri into
central Missouri. Models really advertise this potential developing
after midnight, but thoughts are that warm air advection storms tend
to develop faster than the models forecast. Therefore have slight
chance POPs in the forecast as early as this evening. Shear and
instability both indicate that small hail and locally gusty winds
may be an issue with storms again, but with precipitable water values in
the 1.75 inch range torrential rain will likely accompany all
storms. Wont issue any hydro-watches with this forecast package as
confidence in location and timing are still a bit iffy, but if any
storms can train across the same areas flooding will quickly result
especially across northern Missouri where heavy rains fell this past
weekend.

Looking forward through the work week, the ridge axis building in
will result in the arrival of the dog-days-of-summer. Hot and humid
conditions, more typical of August than our wonderful bout of cool
temperatures would lead your to believe of late, will continue to
push into the Central Plains through the end of the work week. The
primary effects this has on the forecast is to force potential
convection later in the week to our north. This will leave far
northern Missouri with a fleeting on-again-off-again chance for
storms as activity roles from Nebraska into Iowa, but much of the
rest of Kansas and Missouri will miss out on this precipitation.
What we will get instead is hot and humid conditions with heat index
values likely bubbling up over 100 degrees through the later half of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast concerns for the terminals are focused on the early hours of
this morning as KSTJ still has thunderstorms in its vicinity. Expect
these storms to move east and dissipate, likely by 13Z. Otherwise, a
weak front will wash out across the region today keeping surface
winds rather light and variable through the day. Winds should turn
more substantially to the south tonight as the pressure gradient
slightly tightens tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 191113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

More nocturnal convection is effecting the region this morning as a
shortwave trough swings east through the northern and central
Plains. The transiting trough has helped focus a modest low level
jet --from southwest at 20 to 30 knots-- across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri. Rustling moisture convergence and isentropic
assent has ultimately forced convection to develop despite the warm
air aloft. Veering jet this morning has already shifted to
prevailing from due west as the parent trough slides slowly into the
western Great Lakes. This resulted in the rapid development of a
broken line of thunderstorms from north to south from northwest
Missouri to the southern border of Kansas as of this writing.

Model guidance has been of little help this morning as even the
hi-res models have struggled to correctly forecast where and when
this potential convection would get started. However, ongoing
activity has been around long enough for some of the hi-res
models to ingest said data and start spitting out more realistic
solutions. To wit, expect the current broken line of storms to push
a bit farther east early this morning but that the activity will
also slowly decrease as it moves away from the best moisture
transport occurring with the low level jet. Do not expect this
activity to persist past sunrise much, and what does persist will
likely be fading away. Anticipate updating POPs several times early
this morning to keep up with the convection location. These early
morning storms will be capable of producing torrential rain, small
hail and locally gusty sub-severe winds.

Another night of potential convection may be in store for later
tonight as the ridge axis to our west shifts northeast, inducing a
fair amount of warm air advection aloft over the Central Plains.
This looks to set up a potential corridor of storm activity again
tonight perpendicular to tonight`s expected southwest low level jet,
roughly along an axis from the northwest corner of Missouri into
central Missouri. Models really advertise this potential developing
after midnight, but thoughts are that warm air advection storms tend
to develop faster than the models forecast. Therefore have slight
chance POPs in the forecast as early as this evening. Shear and
instability both indicate that small hail and locally gusty winds
may be an issue with storms again, but with precipitable water values in
the 1.75 inch range torrential rain will likely accompany all
storms. Wont issue any hydro-watches with this forecast package as
confidence in location and timing are still a bit iffy, but if any
storms can train across the same areas flooding will quickly result
especially across northern Missouri where heavy rains fell this past
weekend.

Looking forward through the work week, the ridge axis building in
will result in the arrival of the dog-days-of-summer. Hot and humid
conditions, more typical of August than our wonderful bout of cool
temperatures would lead your to believe of late, will continue to
push into the Central Plains through the end of the work week. The
primary effects this has on the forecast is to force potential
convection later in the week to our north. This will leave far
northern Missouri with a fleeting on-again-off-again chance for
storms as activity roles from Nebraska into Iowa, but much of the
rest of Kansas and Missouri will miss out on this precipitation.
What we will get instead is hot and humid conditions with heat index
values likely bubbling up over 100 degrees through the later half of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast concerns for the terminals are focused on the early hours of
this morning as KSTJ still has thunderstorms in its vicinity. Expect
these storms to move east and dissipate, likely by 13Z. Otherwise, a
weak front will wash out across the region today keeping surface
winds rather light and variable through the day. Winds should turn
more substantially to the south tonight as the pressure gradient
slightly tightens tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 191113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

More nocturnal convection is effecting the region this morning as a
shortwave trough swings east through the northern and central
Plains. The transiting trough has helped focus a modest low level
jet --from southwest at 20 to 30 knots-- across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri. Rustling moisture convergence and isentropic
assent has ultimately forced convection to develop despite the warm
air aloft. Veering jet this morning has already shifted to
prevailing from due west as the parent trough slides slowly into the
western Great Lakes. This resulted in the rapid development of a
broken line of thunderstorms from north to south from northwest
Missouri to the southern border of Kansas as of this writing.

Model guidance has been of little help this morning as even the
hi-res models have struggled to correctly forecast where and when
this potential convection would get started. However, ongoing
activity has been around long enough for some of the hi-res
models to ingest said data and start spitting out more realistic
solutions. To wit, expect the current broken line of storms to push
a bit farther east early this morning but that the activity will
also slowly decrease as it moves away from the best moisture
transport occurring with the low level jet. Do not expect this
activity to persist past sunrise much, and what does persist will
likely be fading away. Anticipate updating POPs several times early
this morning to keep up with the convection location. These early
morning storms will be capable of producing torrential rain, small
hail and locally gusty sub-severe winds.

Another night of potential convection may be in store for later
tonight as the ridge axis to our west shifts northeast, inducing a
fair amount of warm air advection aloft over the Central Plains.
This looks to set up a potential corridor of storm activity again
tonight perpendicular to tonight`s expected southwest low level jet,
roughly along an axis from the northwest corner of Missouri into
central Missouri. Models really advertise this potential developing
after midnight, but thoughts are that warm air advection storms tend
to develop faster than the models forecast. Therefore have slight
chance POPs in the forecast as early as this evening. Shear and
instability both indicate that small hail and locally gusty winds
may be an issue with storms again, but with precipitable water values in
the 1.75 inch range torrential rain will likely accompany all
storms. Wont issue any hydro-watches with this forecast package as
confidence in location and timing are still a bit iffy, but if any
storms can train across the same areas flooding will quickly result
especially across northern Missouri where heavy rains fell this past
weekend.

Looking forward through the work week, the ridge axis building in
will result in the arrival of the dog-days-of-summer. Hot and humid
conditions, more typical of August than our wonderful bout of cool
temperatures would lead your to believe of late, will continue to
push into the Central Plains through the end of the work week. The
primary effects this has on the forecast is to force potential
convection later in the week to our north. This will leave far
northern Missouri with a fleeting on-again-off-again chance for
storms as activity roles from Nebraska into Iowa, but much of the
rest of Kansas and Missouri will miss out on this precipitation.
What we will get instead is hot and humid conditions with heat index
values likely bubbling up over 100 degrees through the later half of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast concerns for the terminals are focused on the early hours of
this morning as KSTJ still has thunderstorms in its vicinity. Expect
these storms to move east and dissipate, likely by 13Z. Otherwise, a
weak front will wash out across the region today keeping surface
winds rather light and variable through the day. Winds should turn
more substantially to the south tonight as the pressure gradient
slightly tightens tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 191113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

More nocturnal convection is effecting the region this morning as a
shortwave trough swings east through the northern and central
Plains. The transiting trough has helped focus a modest low level
jet --from southwest at 20 to 30 knots-- across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri. Rustling moisture convergence and isentropic
assent has ultimately forced convection to develop despite the warm
air aloft. Veering jet this morning has already shifted to
prevailing from due west as the parent trough slides slowly into the
western Great Lakes. This resulted in the rapid development of a
broken line of thunderstorms from north to south from northwest
Missouri to the southern border of Kansas as of this writing.

Model guidance has been of little help this morning as even the
hi-res models have struggled to correctly forecast where and when
this potential convection would get started. However, ongoing
activity has been around long enough for some of the hi-res
models to ingest said data and start spitting out more realistic
solutions. To wit, expect the current broken line of storms to push
a bit farther east early this morning but that the activity will
also slowly decrease as it moves away from the best moisture
transport occurring with the low level jet. Do not expect this
activity to persist past sunrise much, and what does persist will
likely be fading away. Anticipate updating POPs several times early
this morning to keep up with the convection location. These early
morning storms will be capable of producing torrential rain, small
hail and locally gusty sub-severe winds.

Another night of potential convection may be in store for later
tonight as the ridge axis to our west shifts northeast, inducing a
fair amount of warm air advection aloft over the Central Plains.
This looks to set up a potential corridor of storm activity again
tonight perpendicular to tonight`s expected southwest low level jet,
roughly along an axis from the northwest corner of Missouri into
central Missouri. Models really advertise this potential developing
after midnight, but thoughts are that warm air advection storms tend
to develop faster than the models forecast. Therefore have slight
chance POPs in the forecast as early as this evening. Shear and
instability both indicate that small hail and locally gusty winds
may be an issue with storms again, but with precipitable water values in
the 1.75 inch range torrential rain will likely accompany all
storms. Wont issue any hydro-watches with this forecast package as
confidence in location and timing are still a bit iffy, but if any
storms can train across the same areas flooding will quickly result
especially across northern Missouri where heavy rains fell this past
weekend.

Looking forward through the work week, the ridge axis building in
will result in the arrival of the dog-days-of-summer. Hot and humid
conditions, more typical of August than our wonderful bout of cool
temperatures would lead your to believe of late, will continue to
push into the Central Plains through the end of the work week. The
primary effects this has on the forecast is to force potential
convection later in the week to our north. This will leave far
northern Missouri with a fleeting on-again-off-again chance for
storms as activity roles from Nebraska into Iowa, but much of the
rest of Kansas and Missouri will miss out on this precipitation.
What we will get instead is hot and humid conditions with heat index
values likely bubbling up over 100 degrees through the later half of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast concerns for the terminals are focused on the early hours of
this morning as KSTJ still has thunderstorms in its vicinity. Expect
these storms to move east and dissipate, likely by 13Z. Otherwise, a
weak front will wash out across the region today keeping surface
winds rather light and variable through the day. Winds should turn
more substantially to the south tonight as the pressure gradient
slightly tightens tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KLSX 191109
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Focus thru this period will be temps thru the period.

Mdls pull the sfc fnt NE of the area tomorrow evening. Can not
rule out isod to sct storms as this fnt lifts newd. Beyond
tomorrow night, chances for precip are nearly non-existent until
next week, but more on that later.

The GEM is currently the only mdl that does not build the upper
ridge into the region. Have therefore ignored the GEM for this
forecast package and trended twd an overall compromise of the
remaining guidance. Thurs still appears to be the start of the
warmest day and continued with a persistence forecast thru the
weekend. The rainfall late last week and over the weekend will
help boost evapotranspiration boosting the dewpoints well into the
70s.

Mdl solns begin to diverge late this weekend as the upper low over
the CA coast finally ejects into the Plains. The GFS suggests the
upper ridge will break down sooner than the ECMWF. Regardless, the
ECMWF also breaks down the ridge by Mon which may allow for the
sfc fnt to approach close enuf for storms to impact at least the
nrn portions of the CWA late Sun and thru Mon. With mdls in
agreement of the ridge breaking down by Mon, have slightly cooler
temps for Mon and will not extend the going headline beyond Sun.
Areas beyond the current watch may eventually need some sort of
heat headline due to a combination of temps in the 90s and high
dewpoints. Will hold off with additional headlines for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Area of showers and thunderstorms will track from west to east
across the area through midday. At this time it apprears greatest
threat for thunderstorms will be at KUIN TAF site this morning.
Will monitor area as it approaches metro Saint Louis TAF sites later
this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through this TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Will monitor radar trends of thunderstorm cluster
to the northwest of KSTL TAF site. For now will just include a
vicinity shower term but may have to include thunder for later
this morning depending on the evolution of this convection.
Otherwise expect VFR conditions.

Browning

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  74  95  76 /  30  40  20  20
Quincy          88  68  92  71 /  30  30  20  30
Columbia        93  71  96  73 /  50  40  20  10
Jefferson City  94  72  97  73 /  50  40  20  10
Salem           87  69  91  74 /  30  30  20  30
Farmington      91  71  94  73 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 191109
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Focus thru this period will be temps thru the period.

Mdls pull the sfc fnt NE of the area tomorrow evening. Can not
rule out isod to sct storms as this fnt lifts newd. Beyond
tomorrow night, chances for precip are nearly non-existent until
next week, but more on that later.

The GEM is currently the only mdl that does not build the upper
ridge into the region. Have therefore ignored the GEM for this
forecast package and trended twd an overall compromise of the
remaining guidance. Thurs still appears to be the start of the
warmest day and continued with a persistence forecast thru the
weekend. The rainfall late last week and over the weekend will
help boost evapotranspiration boosting the dewpoints well into the
70s.

Mdl solns begin to diverge late this weekend as the upper low over
the CA coast finally ejects into the Plains. The GFS suggests the
upper ridge will break down sooner than the ECMWF. Regardless, the
ECMWF also breaks down the ridge by Mon which may allow for the
sfc fnt to approach close enuf for storms to impact at least the
nrn portions of the CWA late Sun and thru Mon. With mdls in
agreement of the ridge breaking down by Mon, have slightly cooler
temps for Mon and will not extend the going headline beyond Sun.
Areas beyond the current watch may eventually need some sort of
heat headline due to a combination of temps in the 90s and high
dewpoints. Will hold off with additional headlines for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Area of showers and thunderstorms will track from west to east
across the area through midday. At this time it apprears greatest
threat for thunderstorms will be at KUIN TAF site this morning.
Will monitor area as it approaches metro Saint Louis TAF sites later
this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through this TAF period.

Specifics for KSTL: Will monitor radar trends of thunderstorm cluster
to the northwest of KSTL TAF site. For now will just include a
vicinity shower term but may have to include thunder for later
this morning depending on the evolution of this convection.
Otherwise expect VFR conditions.

Browning

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  74  95  76 /  30  40  20  20
Quincy          88  68  92  71 /  30  30  20  30
Columbia        93  71  96  73 /  50  40  20  10
Jefferson City  94  72  97  73 /  50  40  20  10
Salem           87  69  91  74 /  30  30  20  30
Farmington      91  71  94  73 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 190922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

More nocturnal convection is effecting the region this morning as a
shortwave trough swings east through the northern and central
Plains. The transiting trough has helped focus a modest low level
jet --from southwest at 20 to 30 knots-- across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri. Rustling moisture convergence and isentropic
assent has ultimately forced convection to develop despite the warm
air aloft. Veering jet this morning has already shifted to
prevailing from due west as the parent trough slides slowly into the
western Great Lakes. This resulted in the rapid development of a
broken line of thunderstorms from north to south from northwest
Missouri to the southern border of Kansas as of this writing.

Model guidance has been of little help this morning as even the
hi-res models have struggled to correctly forecast where and when
this potential convection would get started. However, ongoing
activity has been around long enough for some of the hi-res
models to ingest said data and start spitting out more realistic
solutions. To wit, expect the current broken line of storms to push
a bit farther east early this morning but that the activity will
also slowly decrease as it moves away from the best moisture
transport occurring with the low level jet. Do not expect this
activity to persist past sunrise much, and what does persist will
likely be fading away. Anticipate updating POPs several times early
this morning to keep up with the convection location. These early
morning storms will be capable of producing torrential rain, small
hail and locally gusty sub-severe winds.

Another night of potential convection may be in store for later
tonight as the ridge axis to our west shifts northeast, inducing a
fair amount of warm air advection aloft over the Central Plains.
This looks to set up a potential corridor of storm activity again
tonight perpendicular to tonight`s expected southwest low level jet,
roughly along an axis from the northwest corner of Missouri into
central Missouri. Models really advertise this potential developing
after midnight, but thoughts are that warm air advection storms tend
to develop faster than the models forecast. Therefore have slight
chance POPs in the forecast as early as this evening. Shear and
instability both indicate that small hail and locally gusty winds
may be an issue with storms again, but with precipitable water values in
the 1.75 inch range torrential rain will likely accompany all
storms. Wont issue any hydro-watches with this forecast package as
confidence in location and timing are still a bit iffy, but if any
storms can train across the same areas flooding will quickly result
especially across northern Missouri where heavy rains fell this past
weekend.

Looking forward through the work week, the ridge axis building in
will result in the arrival of the dog-days-of-summer. Hot and humid
conditions, more typical of August than our wonderful bout of cool
temperatures would lead your to believe of late, will continue to
push into the Central Plains through the end of the work week. The
primary effects this has on the forecast is to force potential
convection later in the week to our north. This will leave far
northern Missouri with a fleeting on-again-off-again chance for
storms as activity roles from Nebraska into Iowa, but much of the
rest of Kansas and Missouri will miss out on this precipitation.
What we will get instead is hot and humid conditions with heat index
values likely bubbling up over 100 degrees through the later half of
the work week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Operational models cont to try and generate thunderstorms over
northeast Kansas and move them into the terminals btn 09Z-12Z whereas
the hi-res models cont to generate nothing. This conts to lead to
low confidence TAF with VCTS btn 09Z-12Z. Otrw...conds will remain
VFR with sct-bkn cloud btn 5-6kft during the early morning hours
giving way to sct mid level clouds during the morning. Expect just
sct high cirrus tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will be lgt and
vrb through the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

More nocturnal convection is effecting the region this morning as a
shortwave trough swings east through the northern and central
Plains. The transiting trough has helped focus a modest low level
jet --from southwest at 20 to 30 knots-- across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri. Rustling moisture convergence and isentropic
assent has ultimately forced convection to develop despite the warm
air aloft. Veering jet this morning has already shifted to
prevailing from due west as the parent trough slides slowly into the
western Great Lakes. This resulted in the rapid development of a
broken line of thunderstorms from north to south from northwest
Missouri to the southern border of Kansas as of this writing.

Model guidance has been of little help this morning as even the
hi-res models have struggled to correctly forecast where and when
this potential convection would get started. However, ongoing
activity has been around long enough for some of the hi-res
models to ingest said data and start spitting out more realistic
solutions. To wit, expect the current broken line of storms to push
a bit farther east early this morning but that the activity will
also slowly decrease as it moves away from the best moisture
transport occurring with the low level jet. Do not expect this
activity to persist past sunrise much, and what does persist will
likely be fading away. Anticipate updating POPs several times early
this morning to keep up with the convection location. These early
morning storms will be capable of producing torrential rain, small
hail and locally gusty sub-severe winds.

Another night of potential convection may be in store for later
tonight as the ridge axis to our west shifts northeast, inducing a
fair amount of warm air advection aloft over the Central Plains.
This looks to set up a potential corridor of storm activity again
tonight perpendicular to tonight`s expected southwest low level jet,
roughly along an axis from the northwest corner of Missouri into
central Missouri. Models really advertise this potential developing
after midnight, but thoughts are that warm air advection storms tend
to develop faster than the models forecast. Therefore have slight
chance POPs in the forecast as early as this evening. Shear and
instability both indicate that small hail and locally gusty winds
may be an issue with storms again, but with precipitable water values in
the 1.75 inch range torrential rain will likely accompany all
storms. Wont issue any hydro-watches with this forecast package as
confidence in location and timing are still a bit iffy, but if any
storms can train across the same areas flooding will quickly result
especially across northern Missouri where heavy rains fell this past
weekend.

Looking forward through the work week, the ridge axis building in
will result in the arrival of the dog-days-of-summer. Hot and humid
conditions, more typical of August than our wonderful bout of cool
temperatures would lead your to believe of late, will continue to
push into the Central Plains through the end of the work week. The
primary effects this has on the forecast is to force potential
convection later in the week to our north. This will leave far
northern Missouri with a fleeting on-again-off-again chance for
storms as activity roles from Nebraska into Iowa, but much of the
rest of Kansas and Missouri will miss out on this precipitation.
What we will get instead is hot and humid conditions with heat index
values likely bubbling up over 100 degrees through the later half of
the work week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Operational models cont to try and generate thunderstorms over
northeast Kansas and move them into the terminals btn 09Z-12Z whereas
the hi-res models cont to generate nothing. This conts to lead to
low confidence TAF with VCTS btn 09Z-12Z. Otrw...conds will remain
VFR with sct-bkn cloud btn 5-6kft during the early morning hours
giving way to sct mid level clouds during the morning. Expect just
sct high cirrus tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will be lgt and
vrb through the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190911
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
411 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Focus thru this period will be temps thru the period.

Mdls pull the sfc fnt NE of the area tomorrow evening. Can not
rule out isod to sct storms as this fnt lifts newd. Beyond
tomorrow night, chances for precip are nearly non-existent until
next week, but more on that later.

The GEM is currently the only mdl that does not build the upper
ridge into the region. Have therefore ignored the GEM for this
forecast package and trended twd an overall compromise of the
remaining guidance. Thurs still appears to be the start of the
warmest day and continued with a persistence forecast thru the
weekend. The rainfall late last week and over the weekend will
help boost evapotranspiration boosting the dewpoints well into the
70s.

Mdl solns begin to diverge late this weekend as the upper low over
the CA coast finally ejects into the Plains. The GFS suggests the
upper ridge will break down sooner than the ECMWF. Regardless, the
ECMWF also breaks down the ridge by Mon which may allow for the
sfc fnt to approach close enuf for storms to impact at least the
nrn portions of the CWA late Sun and thru Mon. With mdls in
agreement of the ridge breaking down by Mon, have slightly cooler
temps for Mon and will not extend the going headline beyond Sun.
Areas beyond the current watch may eventually need some sort of
heat headline due to a combination of temps in the 90s and high
dewpoints. Will hold off with additional headlines for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

A complex of thunderstorms may develop and drop southeastward
through west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly
impacting or at least grazing COU. There may also be more
scattered showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight
ahead of a weak surface trough dropping southeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the
UIN and COU tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be
mid-high level warm air advection cloudiness along with convective
debris cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly a light sly surface wind late tonight, then
gradually strengthening on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly
direction by late Tuesday afternoon. There will be fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds late tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 10-12 kts
Tuesday afternoon. The wind will become light again Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  74  95  76 /  30  40  20  20
Quincy          88  68  92  71 /  30  30  20  30
Columbia        93  71  96  73 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  94  72  97  73 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           87  69  91  74 /  30  30  20  30
Farmington      91  71  94  73 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190911
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
411 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Focus thru this period will be temps thru the period.

Mdls pull the sfc fnt NE of the area tomorrow evening. Can not
rule out isod to sct storms as this fnt lifts newd. Beyond
tomorrow night, chances for precip are nearly non-existent until
next week, but more on that later.

The GEM is currently the only mdl that does not build the upper
ridge into the region. Have therefore ignored the GEM for this
forecast package and trended twd an overall compromise of the
remaining guidance. Thurs still appears to be the start of the
warmest day and continued with a persistence forecast thru the
weekend. The rainfall late last week and over the weekend will
help boost evapotranspiration boosting the dewpoints well into the
70s.

Mdl solns begin to diverge late this weekend as the upper low over
the CA coast finally ejects into the Plains. The GFS suggests the
upper ridge will break down sooner than the ECMWF. Regardless, the
ECMWF also breaks down the ridge by Mon which may allow for the
sfc fnt to approach close enuf for storms to impact at least the
nrn portions of the CWA late Sun and thru Mon. With mdls in
agreement of the ridge breaking down by Mon, have slightly cooler
temps for Mon and will not extend the going headline beyond Sun.
Areas beyond the current watch may eventually need some sort of
heat headline due to a combination of temps in the 90s and high
dewpoints. Will hold off with additional headlines for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

A complex of thunderstorms may develop and drop southeastward
through west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly
impacting or at least grazing COU. There may also be more
scattered showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight
ahead of a weak surface trough dropping southeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the
UIN and COU tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be
mid-high level warm air advection cloudiness along with convective
debris cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly a light sly surface wind late tonight, then
gradually strengthening on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly
direction by late Tuesday afternoon. There will be fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds late tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 10-12 kts
Tuesday afternoon. The wind will become light again Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  74  95  76 /  30  40  20  20
Quincy          88  68  92  71 /  30  30  20  30
Columbia        93  71  96  73 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  94  72  97  73 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           87  69  91  74 /  30  30  20  30
Farmington      91  71  94  73 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190911
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
411 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Focus thru this period will be temps thru the period.

Mdls pull the sfc fnt NE of the area tomorrow evening. Can not
rule out isod to sct storms as this fnt lifts newd. Beyond
tomorrow night, chances for precip are nearly non-existent until
next week, but more on that later.

The GEM is currently the only mdl that does not build the upper
ridge into the region. Have therefore ignored the GEM for this
forecast package and trended twd an overall compromise of the
remaining guidance. Thurs still appears to be the start of the
warmest day and continued with a persistence forecast thru the
weekend. The rainfall late last week and over the weekend will
help boost evapotranspiration boosting the dewpoints well into the
70s.

Mdl solns begin to diverge late this weekend as the upper low over
the CA coast finally ejects into the Plains. The GFS suggests the
upper ridge will break down sooner than the ECMWF. Regardless, the
ECMWF also breaks down the ridge by Mon which may allow for the
sfc fnt to approach close enuf for storms to impact at least the
nrn portions of the CWA late Sun and thru Mon. With mdls in
agreement of the ridge breaking down by Mon, have slightly cooler
temps for Mon and will not extend the going headline beyond Sun.
Areas beyond the current watch may eventually need some sort of
heat headline due to a combination of temps in the 90s and high
dewpoints. Will hold off with additional headlines for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

A complex of thunderstorms may develop and drop southeastward
through west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly
impacting or at least grazing COU. There may also be more
scattered showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight
ahead of a weak surface trough dropping southeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the
UIN and COU tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be
mid-high level warm air advection cloudiness along with convective
debris cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly a light sly surface wind late tonight, then
gradually strengthening on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly
direction by late Tuesday afternoon. There will be fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds late tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 10-12 kts
Tuesday afternoon. The wind will become light again Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  74  95  76 /  30  40  20  20
Quincy          88  68  92  71 /  30  30  20  30
Columbia        93  71  96  73 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  94  72  97  73 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           87  69  91  74 /  30  30  20  30
Farmington      91  71  94  73 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190911
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
411 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Focus thru this period will be temps thru the period.

Mdls pull the sfc fnt NE of the area tomorrow evening. Can not
rule out isod to sct storms as this fnt lifts newd. Beyond
tomorrow night, chances for precip are nearly non-existent until
next week, but more on that later.

The GEM is currently the only mdl that does not build the upper
ridge into the region. Have therefore ignored the GEM for this
forecast package and trended twd an overall compromise of the
remaining guidance. Thurs still appears to be the start of the
warmest day and continued with a persistence forecast thru the
weekend. The rainfall late last week and over the weekend will
help boost evapotranspiration boosting the dewpoints well into the
70s.

Mdl solns begin to diverge late this weekend as the upper low over
the CA coast finally ejects into the Plains. The GFS suggests the
upper ridge will break down sooner than the ECMWF. Regardless, the
ECMWF also breaks down the ridge by Mon which may allow for the
sfc fnt to approach close enuf for storms to impact at least the
nrn portions of the CWA late Sun and thru Mon. With mdls in
agreement of the ridge breaking down by Mon, have slightly cooler
temps for Mon and will not extend the going headline beyond Sun.
Areas beyond the current watch may eventually need some sort of
heat headline due to a combination of temps in the 90s and high
dewpoints. Will hold off with additional headlines for now.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

A complex of thunderstorms may develop and drop southeastward
through west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly
impacting or at least grazing COU. There may also be more
scattered showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight
ahead of a weak surface trough dropping southeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the
UIN and COU tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be
mid-high level warm air advection cloudiness along with convective
debris cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly a light sly surface wind late tonight, then
gradually strengthening on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly
direction by late Tuesday afternoon. There will be fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds late tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 10-12 kts
Tuesday afternoon. The wind will become light again Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  74  95  76 /  30  40  20  20
Quincy          88  68  92  71 /  30  30  20  30
Columbia        93  71  96  73 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  94  72  97  73 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           87  69  91  74 /  30  30  20  30
Farmington      91  71  94  73 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190834
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT
Mon Aug 18 2014

Weather story this week will be DANGEROUS HEAT building into the
Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Have decided to issue an
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for Wednesday through Sunday for St. Louis
County, St. Louis City, Madison and St. Clair Counties in
Illinois. Appears temperatures will reach the middle 90s by
Wednesday with heat index readings between 100 and 105 degrees in
the City of St. Louis, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s
for the remainder of the watch period and afternoon and early
evening heat index values around 105 degrees common across the
entire watch area.

Summer pattern will take shape this week as high pressure aloft
builds across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The
transition to the pattern will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region tonight and tomorrow night as the warm
front lifts north across the region. Heat will build across the
region with the hottest temperatures likely occurring Saturday and
Sunday as thermal ridge (+24 to +26C at 850mb) is directly overhead.

The heat should subside by Monday as a cold front moves through the
area and temperatures return to normal.

The chances of precipitation after Tuesday night look very low as
area remains capped under the influence of the upper level ridge.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

A complex of thunderstorms may develop and drop southeastward
through west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly
impacting or at least grazing COU. There may also be more
scattered showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight
ahead of a weak surface trough dropping southeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the
UIN and COU tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be
mid-high level warm air advection cloudiness along with convective
debris cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly a light sly surface wind late tonight, then
gradually strengthening on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly
direction by late Tuesday afternoon. There will be fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds late tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 10-12 kts
Tuesday afternoon. The wind will become light again Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  74  95  76 /  30  40  20  20
Quincy          88  68  92  71 /  30  30  20  30
Columbia        93  71  96  73 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  94  72  97  73 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           87  69  91  74 /  30  30  20  30
Farmington      91  71  94  73 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190834
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT
Mon Aug 18 2014

Weather story this week will be DANGEROUS HEAT building into the
Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Have decided to issue an
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for Wednesday through Sunday for St. Louis
County, St. Louis City, Madison and St. Clair Counties in
Illinois. Appears temperatures will reach the middle 90s by
Wednesday with heat index readings between 100 and 105 degrees in
the City of St. Louis, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s
for the remainder of the watch period and afternoon and early
evening heat index values around 105 degrees common across the
entire watch area.

Summer pattern will take shape this week as high pressure aloft
builds across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The
transition to the pattern will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region tonight and tomorrow night as the warm
front lifts north across the region. Heat will build across the
region with the hottest temperatures likely occurring Saturday and
Sunday as thermal ridge (+24 to +26C at 850mb) is directly overhead.

The heat should subside by Monday as a cold front moves through the
area and temperatures return to normal.

The chances of precipitation after Tuesday night look very low as
area remains capped under the influence of the upper level ridge.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

A complex of thunderstorms may develop and drop southeastward
through west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly
impacting or at least grazing COU. There may also be more
scattered showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight
ahead of a weak surface trough dropping southeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the
UIN and COU tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be
mid-high level warm air advection cloudiness along with convective
debris cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly a light sly surface wind late tonight, then
gradually strengthening on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly
direction by late Tuesday afternoon. There will be fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds late tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 10-12 kts
Tuesday afternoon. The wind will become light again Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  74  95  76 /  30  40  20  20
Quincy          88  68  92  71 /  30  30  20  30
Columbia        93  71  96  73 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  94  72  97  73 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           87  69  91  74 /  30  30  20  30
Farmington      91  71  94  73 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190834
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT
Mon Aug 18 2014

Weather story this week will be DANGEROUS HEAT building into the
Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Have decided to issue an
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for Wednesday through Sunday for St. Louis
County, St. Louis City, Madison and St. Clair Counties in
Illinois. Appears temperatures will reach the middle 90s by
Wednesday with heat index readings between 100 and 105 degrees in
the City of St. Louis, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s
for the remainder of the watch period and afternoon and early
evening heat index values around 105 degrees common across the
entire watch area.

Summer pattern will take shape this week as high pressure aloft
builds across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The
transition to the pattern will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region tonight and tomorrow night as the warm
front lifts north across the region. Heat will build across the
region with the hottest temperatures likely occurring Saturday and
Sunday as thermal ridge (+24 to +26C at 850mb) is directly overhead.

The heat should subside by Monday as a cold front moves through the
area and temperatures return to normal.

The chances of precipitation after Tuesday night look very low as
area remains capped under the influence of the upper level ridge.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

A complex of thunderstorms may develop and drop southeastward
through west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly
impacting or at least grazing COU. There may also be more
scattered showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight
ahead of a weak surface trough dropping southeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the
UIN and COU tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be
mid-high level warm air advection cloudiness along with convective
debris cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly a light sly surface wind late tonight, then
gradually strengthening on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly
direction by late Tuesday afternoon. There will be fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds late tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 10-12 kts
Tuesday afternoon. The wind will become light again Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  74  95  76 /  30  40  20  20
Quincy          88  68  92  71 /  30  30  20  30
Columbia        93  71  96  73 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  94  72  97  73 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           87  69  91  74 /  30  30  20  30
Farmington      91  71  94  73 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 190834
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

Main focus thru this period will be precip chances.

A weak cdfnt continues to approach the area this morning. A weak
sfc low along the fnt is located over nern KS which is no doubt
helping the ongoing convection. Mdls are not handling the ongoing
convection well and therefore have lower confidence in the going
forecast. However, the ECMWF and local WRF seem to have the best
handle currently. Believe storms will dissipate as they approach
central MO later this morning, but some question remains as to how
far E the storms will travel before doing so. With the fnt
lingering in the region, anticipate another round of storms
developing later today. The main question is timing. Have
therefore kept Low chance PoPs thru much of the day, but after
this morning, focused PoPs for late this afternoon. An approaching
mid level wave may help erode the cap sooner. Regardless, ample
insolation today combined with dewpoints reaching the low 70s shud
allow for MLCAPE in the 2 to 3k J/kg range. This trof will also be
responsible for a small area of enhanced shear along the fnt.

These storms shud shift ewd early this evening. However, as the
LLJ increases tonight, more storms will be possible.

With questions in timing and location of convection, made only
minor changes to the prev forecast for temps today and tonight. In
general, trended twd the cooler guidance for nrn and ern portions
of the CWA while trending warmer across western, southern and
central portions of the CWA.

Tilly

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT
Mon Aug 18 2014

Weather story this week will be DANGEROUS HEAT building into the
Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Have decided to issue an
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for Wednesday through Sunday for St. Louis
County, St. Louis City, Madison and St. Clair Counties in
Illinois. Appears temperatures will reach the middle 90s by
Wednesday with heat index readings between 100 and 105 degrees in
the City of St. Louis, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s
for the remainder of the watch period and afternoon and early
evening heat index values around 105 degrees common across the
entire watch area.

Summer pattern will take shape this week as high pressure aloft
builds across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The
transition to the pattern will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region tonight and tomorrow night as the warm
front lifts north across the region. Heat will build across the
region with the hottest temperatures likely occurring Saturday and
Sunday as thermal ridge (+24 to +26C at 850mb) is directly overhead.

The heat should subside by Monday as a cold front moves through the
area and temperatures return to normal.

The chances of precipitation after Tuesday night look very low as
area remains capped under the influence of the upper level ridge.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

A complex of thunderstorms may develop and drop southeastward
through west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly
impacting or at least grazing COU. There may also be more
scattered showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight
ahead of a weak surface trough dropping southeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the
UIN and COU tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be
mid-high level warm air advection cloudiness along with convective
debris cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly a light sly surface wind late tonight, then
gradually strengthening on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly
direction by late Tuesday afternoon. There will be fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds late tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 10-12 kts
Tuesday afternoon. The wind will become light again Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     91  74  95  76 /  30  40  20  20
Quincy          88  68  92  71 /  30  30  20  30
Columbia        93  71  96  73 /  40  40  20  10
Jefferson City  94  72  97  73 /  40  40  20  10
Salem           87  69  91  74 /  30  30  20  30
Farmington      91  71  94  73 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 190802
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to spread east into the Missouri Ozarks early this
morning. We expect this activity to survive until at least U.S. 65
as the incoming system cold pool and a veered low level jet
continue to promote new updrafts along the eastern/southeastern
flank of this cluster. Although deep layer shear is rather weak
across the region, instability remains rather robust which will
support a few updrafts putting down mainly sub-severe hail. The
system cold pool with this cluster is not all that strong, so we
do not believe it poses a severe wind threat. A localized gust
over 50 mph will still be possible with any stronger individual
cells within the cluster.

As we get from mid-morning onward, the fate of this convection is
in question. It is possible that it takes a turn south and
follows the better instability into eastern Oklahoma/western
Arkansas. It is also possible that it just slowly dissipates as it
outruns better instability east of U.S. 65. We will have to watch
for some renewed development this afternoon across the eastern
Ozarks along any outflow boundaries. The morning convection and
remnant cloud cover could have a play on high temperatures this
afternoon. Current thinking is that the convection and clouds will
exit fast enough to allow us to warm up to temperatures similar
to, or even slightly warmer than those of Monday afternoon.

We are then expecting more thunderstorm development later tonight
across the Corn Belt as a broad low level jet stream impinges on
a low level frontal boundary. It is possible that some of this
activity could clip central Missouri late tonight, but most of it
should remain across northern Missouri. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Long wave charts then continue to indicate that a long wave ridge of
high pressure will strengthen from the Mid-South up into the
Appalachian States. This pattern will favor a synoptic scale ridge
strengthening over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. Hot
conditions are therefore expected for the Missouri Ozarks from
midweek through the upcoming weekend. Highs in the middle to upper
90s are expected with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

One item that we remain a bit unclear on is surface dew points and
resultant heat indices. The synoptic scale pattern does show low
level moisture trajectories off of the western Gulf of Mexico, but
any moisture advection would initially stream into the southern
Plains before then advecting northeast into the Ozarks.
Interestingly, patterns such as this can promote fairly high mixing
heights. This would support the potential to mix down drier air to
the surface in the afternoons, especially along the higher terrain
of the Ozark Plateau. With that being said, we have generally kept
afternoon heat indices in the 97 to 104 degree range for now.

Long wave charts then indicate that the ridge may lose some
amplitude and shift slightly east early next week. This may open the
door to a front slipping into the region and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast remains tricky over the next 12 hours. Storms have fired
across central Kansas and are treking to the east southeast thus
far. This activity will continue to expand east and will
eventually move more toward the southeast with time. As a result,
have changed PROB30 groups at JLN and SGF to TEMPO for
thunderstorms prior to sunrise. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be
possible with the heavier downpours. VFR conditions are expected
from Tuesday afternoon and beyond.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 190802
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to spread east into the Missouri Ozarks early this
morning. We expect this activity to survive until at least U.S. 65
as the incoming system cold pool and a veered low level jet
continue to promote new updrafts along the eastern/southeastern
flank of this cluster. Although deep layer shear is rather weak
across the region, instability remains rather robust which will
support a few updrafts putting down mainly sub-severe hail. The
system cold pool with this cluster is not all that strong, so we
do not believe it poses a severe wind threat. A localized gust
over 50 mph will still be possible with any stronger individual
cells within the cluster.

As we get from mid-morning onward, the fate of this convection is
in question. It is possible that it takes a turn south and
follows the better instability into eastern Oklahoma/western
Arkansas. It is also possible that it just slowly dissipates as it
outruns better instability east of U.S. 65. We will have to watch
for some renewed development this afternoon across the eastern
Ozarks along any outflow boundaries. The morning convection and
remnant cloud cover could have a play on high temperatures this
afternoon. Current thinking is that the convection and clouds will
exit fast enough to allow us to warm up to temperatures similar
to, or even slightly warmer than those of Monday afternoon.

We are then expecting more thunderstorm development later tonight
across the Corn Belt as a broad low level jet stream impinges on
a low level frontal boundary. It is possible that some of this
activity could clip central Missouri late tonight, but most of it
should remain across northern Missouri. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Long wave charts then continue to indicate that a long wave ridge of
high pressure will strengthen from the Mid-South up into the
Appalachian States. This pattern will favor a synoptic scale ridge
strengthening over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. Hot
conditions are therefore expected for the Missouri Ozarks from
midweek through the upcoming weekend. Highs in the middle to upper
90s are expected with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

One item that we remain a bit unclear on is surface dew points and
resultant heat indices. The synoptic scale pattern does show low
level moisture trajectories off of the western Gulf of Mexico, but
any moisture advection would initially stream into the southern
Plains before then advecting northeast into the Ozarks.
Interestingly, patterns such as this can promote fairly high mixing
heights. This would support the potential to mix down drier air to
the surface in the afternoons, especially along the higher terrain
of the Ozark Plateau. With that being said, we have generally kept
afternoon heat indices in the 97 to 104 degree range for now.

Long wave charts then indicate that the ridge may lose some
amplitude and shift slightly east early next week. This may open the
door to a front slipping into the region and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast remains tricky over the next 12 hours. Storms have fired
across central Kansas and are treking to the east southeast thus
far. This activity will continue to expand east and will
eventually move more toward the southeast with time. As a result,
have changed PROB30 groups at JLN and SGF to TEMPO for
thunderstorms prior to sunrise. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be
possible with the heavier downpours. VFR conditions are expected
from Tuesday afternoon and beyond.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gagan





000
FXUS63 KSGF 190512 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure is currently pushing east
across the southwestern U.S. This is leaving the region in an
upper level northwest flow pattern. A weak disturbance is expected
to move through this northwest flow tonight and trigger storms
across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri late this
evening. This activity will then push to the southeast overnight
into Tuesday morning, mainly remaining north and east of the area
but may clip portions of central Missouri. Theta-E differences and
MUCAPE values over 2000 J/kg could support a few strong storms
wind gust in excess of 50 mph with any line segments that can
develop.

An outflow boundary from this activity will develop and push south
through the rest of the area tonight and Tuesday morning.
Additional storms will be possible along this boundary with the
best chances remaining along and north of the Highway 54 corridor,
with storms weakening as the approach Highway 60. This convection
should dissipate by the late morning hours Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The upper level high will move east and over the region by
Thursday. Storms are expected to develop across northern Missouri
again Tuesday night and push to the southeast again, but with the
upper level high pushing farther to the east this activity will
mainly occur north and east of the area, maybe just clipping the
far eastern Ozarks.

The upper level high will then remain over the region Thursday
into the weekend, ushering in a very warm air mass. Highs will
top up in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon Thursday into
this weekend, with heat index values generally in the 100 to 105
degree range. Afternoon mixing may help heat index values from
getting too out of hand but, never the less, hot conditions can
still be expected this week and weekend. Dry conditions are
also expected Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast remains tricky over the next 12 hours. Storms have fired
across central Kansas and are treking to the east southeast thus
far. This activity will continue to expand east and will
eventually move more toward the southeast with time. As a result,
have changed PROB30 groups at JLN and SGF to TEMPO for
thunderstorms prior to sunrise. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be
possible with the heavier downpours. VFR conditions are expected
from Tuesday afternoon and beyond.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan





000
FXUS63 KSGF 190512 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure is currently pushing east
across the southwestern U.S. This is leaving the region in an
upper level northwest flow pattern. A weak disturbance is expected
to move through this northwest flow tonight and trigger storms
across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri late this
evening. This activity will then push to the southeast overnight
into Tuesday morning, mainly remaining north and east of the area
but may clip portions of central Missouri. Theta-E differences and
MUCAPE values over 2000 J/kg could support a few strong storms
wind gust in excess of 50 mph with any line segments that can
develop.

An outflow boundary from this activity will develop and push south
through the rest of the area tonight and Tuesday morning.
Additional storms will be possible along this boundary with the
best chances remaining along and north of the Highway 54 corridor,
with storms weakening as the approach Highway 60. This convection
should dissipate by the late morning hours Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The upper level high will move east and over the region by
Thursday. Storms are expected to develop across northern Missouri
again Tuesday night and push to the southeast again, but with the
upper level high pushing farther to the east this activity will
mainly occur north and east of the area, maybe just clipping the
far eastern Ozarks.

The upper level high will then remain over the region Thursday
into the weekend, ushering in a very warm air mass. Highs will
top up in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon Thursday into
this weekend, with heat index values generally in the 100 to 105
degree range. Afternoon mixing may help heat index values from
getting too out of hand but, never the less, hot conditions can
still be expected this week and weekend. Dry conditions are
also expected Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast remains tricky over the next 12 hours. Storms have fired
across central Kansas and are treking to the east southeast thus
far. This activity will continue to expand east and will
eventually move more toward the southeast with time. As a result,
have changed PROB30 groups at JLN and SGF to TEMPO for
thunderstorms prior to sunrise. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be
possible with the heavier downpours. VFR conditions are expected
from Tuesday afternoon and beyond.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KLSX 190415
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1115 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Weak cold front and shortwave expected to bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the area late tonight, especially
across parts of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. This is
where the nose of the westerly low level jet will reside.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT
Mon Aug 18 2014

Weather story this week will be DANGEROUS HEAT building into the
Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Have decided to issue an
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for Wednesday through Sunday for St. Louis
County, St. Louis City, Madison and St. Clair Counties in
Illinois. Appears temperatures will reach the middle 90s by
Wednesday with heat index readings between 100 and 105 degrees in
the City of St. Louis, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s
for the remainder of the watch period and afternoon and early
evening heat index values around 105 degrees common across the
entire watch area.

Summer pattern will take shape this week as high pressure aloft
builds across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The
transition to the pattern will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region tonight and tomorrow night as the warm
front lifts north across the region. Heat will build across the
region with the hottest temperatures likely occurring Saturday and
Sunday as thermal ridge (+24 to +26C at 850mb) is directly overhead.

The heat should subside by Monday as a cold front moves through the
area and temperatures return to normal.

The chances of precipitation after Tuesday night look very low as
area remains capped under the influence of the upper level ridge.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

A complex of thunderstorms may develop and drop southeastward
through west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly
impacting or at least grazing COU. There may also be more
scattered showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight
ahead of a weak surface trough dropping southeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the
UIN and COU tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be
mid-high level warm air advection cloudiness along with convective
debris cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly a light sly surface wind late tonight, then
gradually strengthening on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly
direction by late Tuesday afternoon. There will be fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds late tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 10-12 kts
Tuesday afternoon. The wind will become light again Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 190415
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1115 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Weak cold front and shortwave expected to bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the area late tonight, especially
across parts of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. This is
where the nose of the westerly low level jet will reside.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT
Mon Aug 18 2014

Weather story this week will be DANGEROUS HEAT building into the
Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Have decided to issue an
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for Wednesday through Sunday for St. Louis
County, St. Louis City, Madison and St. Clair Counties in
Illinois. Appears temperatures will reach the middle 90s by
Wednesday with heat index readings between 100 and 105 degrees in
the City of St. Louis, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s
for the remainder of the watch period and afternoon and early
evening heat index values around 105 degrees common across the
entire watch area.

Summer pattern will take shape this week as high pressure aloft
builds across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The
transition to the pattern will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region tonight and tomorrow night as the warm
front lifts north across the region. Heat will build across the
region with the hottest temperatures likely occurring Saturday and
Sunday as thermal ridge (+24 to +26C at 850mb) is directly overhead.

The heat should subside by Monday as a cold front moves through the
area and temperatures return to normal.

The chances of precipitation after Tuesday night look very low as
area remains capped under the influence of the upper level ridge.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

A complex of thunderstorms may develop and drop southeastward
through west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly
impacting or at least grazing COU. There may also be more
scattered showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight
ahead of a weak surface trough dropping southeastward through
northwest MO and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the
UIN and COU tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be
mid-high level warm air advection cloudiness along with convective
debris cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly a light sly surface wind late tonight, then
gradually strengthening on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly
direction by late Tuesday afternoon. There will be fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds late tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 10-12 kts
Tuesday afternoon. The wind will become light again Tuesday night.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 190403
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Tonight:

There are several things working for and against getting convection
through the forecast area tonight and that is leading to a relatively
high level of uncertainty for a 6 to 12 hour forecast. Working for
the potential for storms tonight is a weak upper wave noted on
afternoon water vapor imagery in western South Dakota and Nebraska.
The other positive for storms tonight is strong isentropic ascent
around 310K from a strongly veered low level jet. A stronger upper
wave was noted in eastern North Dakota and that may drag a cold front
southward into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas which
could provide enough low level ascent to realize the modest to strong
instability present in the region. However, there is a stout cap in
place and the features previously mentioned are nebulous and weak so
it doesn`t seem like a really good probability for storms tonight.
Have generally kept the chances in the 40 percent range but felt the
strong and moist isentropic ascent would be enough to get some
showers and storms going so have PoPs as high as 50%. If this occurs,
shear is strong enough, probably on the order of 35 to 40 kts in the
0-6KM layer, to lead to some organization as any storms propagate
south/southeastward. *If* we`re able to get storms, there is the
potential they could produce strong and gusty winds as well as
marginally severe hail given the stronger shear working into the
area.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Tuesday will likely be very hot and humid across the southwestern
two-thirds of the forecast area, where the warmest temperatures
aloft will be located. We should also see a decreasing trend for
convection through the day. But there is a different story at night.
It appears the elevated mixed layer will be straddling the forecast
area. Models are pretty good agreement depicting a northwest to
southeast corridor of precipitation associated with this temperature
demarcation and shows up well as an area of strong theta-e
convergence. Strong and moist isentropic ascent in the 305K to 310K
surface will help to initiate showers and storms. Shear may be
marginal for severe convection leading to a marginal risk for hail.
Rather, precipitable water values approaching 2" in the area will
likely lead to pockets of heavy rain during the overnight period.

Otherwise, daytime temperatures look to return to the upper 80s and
lower 90s on Tuesday and the the lower to middle 90s for Wednesday.
With high humidity in the area, afternoon heat indices will climb
into the 100 to 103 range for much of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The end of the week will feature above normal temperatures as upper
ridge buckles northward over the region in response to troughing
over the eastern and western US coast.  Strengthening low level
southwesterly flow should boost H8 temperatures into the +20C to
+24C range by Thursday continuing into the weekend.  Surface
temperatures in the lower and middle 90s combined with increasing
low level RH should produce heat index values near or slightly above
100.

Nocturnal convection could brush far northern Missouri along the
periphery of the upper ridge during this time period, but chances
appear to be fairly low at this time.  Better chance for
precipitation looks to hold off until early next week when some
flattening of the upper ridge occurs and a surface boundary works
southward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Operational models cont to try and generate thunderstorms over
northeast Kansas and move them into the terminals btn 09Z-12Z whereas
the hi-res models cont to generate nothing. This conts to lead to
low confidence TAF with VCTS btn 09Z-12Z. Otrw...conds will remain
VFR with sct-bkn cloud btn 5-6kft during the early morning hours
giving way to sct mid level clouds during the morning. Expect just
sct high cirrus tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will be lgt and
vrb through the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190403
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Tonight:

There are several things working for and against getting convection
through the forecast area tonight and that is leading to a relatively
high level of uncertainty for a 6 to 12 hour forecast. Working for
the potential for storms tonight is a weak upper wave noted on
afternoon water vapor imagery in western South Dakota and Nebraska.
The other positive for storms tonight is strong isentropic ascent
around 310K from a strongly veered low level jet. A stronger upper
wave was noted in eastern North Dakota and that may drag a cold front
southward into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas which
could provide enough low level ascent to realize the modest to strong
instability present in the region. However, there is a stout cap in
place and the features previously mentioned are nebulous and weak so
it doesn`t seem like a really good probability for storms tonight.
Have generally kept the chances in the 40 percent range but felt the
strong and moist isentropic ascent would be enough to get some
showers and storms going so have PoPs as high as 50%. If this occurs,
shear is strong enough, probably on the order of 35 to 40 kts in the
0-6KM layer, to lead to some organization as any storms propagate
south/southeastward. *If* we`re able to get storms, there is the
potential they could produce strong and gusty winds as well as
marginally severe hail given the stronger shear working into the
area.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Tuesday will likely be very hot and humid across the southwestern
two-thirds of the forecast area, where the warmest temperatures
aloft will be located. We should also see a decreasing trend for
convection through the day. But there is a different story at night.
It appears the elevated mixed layer will be straddling the forecast
area. Models are pretty good agreement depicting a northwest to
southeast corridor of precipitation associated with this temperature
demarcation and shows up well as an area of strong theta-e
convergence. Strong and moist isentropic ascent in the 305K to 310K
surface will help to initiate showers and storms. Shear may be
marginal for severe convection leading to a marginal risk for hail.
Rather, precipitable water values approaching 2" in the area will
likely lead to pockets of heavy rain during the overnight period.

Otherwise, daytime temperatures look to return to the upper 80s and
lower 90s on Tuesday and the the lower to middle 90s for Wednesday.
With high humidity in the area, afternoon heat indices will climb
into the 100 to 103 range for much of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The end of the week will feature above normal temperatures as upper
ridge buckles northward over the region in response to troughing
over the eastern and western US coast.  Strengthening low level
southwesterly flow should boost H8 temperatures into the +20C to
+24C range by Thursday continuing into the weekend.  Surface
temperatures in the lower and middle 90s combined with increasing
low level RH should produce heat index values near or slightly above
100.

Nocturnal convection could brush far northern Missouri along the
periphery of the upper ridge during this time period, but chances
appear to be fairly low at this time.  Better chance for
precipitation looks to hold off until early next week when some
flattening of the upper ridge occurs and a surface boundary works
southward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Operational models cont to try and generate thunderstorms over
northeast Kansas and move them into the terminals btn 09Z-12Z whereas
the hi-res models cont to generate nothing. This conts to lead to
low confidence TAF with VCTS btn 09Z-12Z. Otrw...conds will remain
VFR with sct-bkn cloud btn 5-6kft during the early morning hours
giving way to sct mid level clouds during the morning. Expect just
sct high cirrus tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will be lgt and
vrb through the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190403
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Tonight:

There are several things working for and against getting convection
through the forecast area tonight and that is leading to a relatively
high level of uncertainty for a 6 to 12 hour forecast. Working for
the potential for storms tonight is a weak upper wave noted on
afternoon water vapor imagery in western South Dakota and Nebraska.
The other positive for storms tonight is strong isentropic ascent
around 310K from a strongly veered low level jet. A stronger upper
wave was noted in eastern North Dakota and that may drag a cold front
southward into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas which
could provide enough low level ascent to realize the modest to strong
instability present in the region. However, there is a stout cap in
place and the features previously mentioned are nebulous and weak so
it doesn`t seem like a really good probability for storms tonight.
Have generally kept the chances in the 40 percent range but felt the
strong and moist isentropic ascent would be enough to get some
showers and storms going so have PoPs as high as 50%. If this occurs,
shear is strong enough, probably on the order of 35 to 40 kts in the
0-6KM layer, to lead to some organization as any storms propagate
south/southeastward. *If* we`re able to get storms, there is the
potential they could produce strong and gusty winds as well as
marginally severe hail given the stronger shear working into the
area.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Tuesday will likely be very hot and humid across the southwestern
two-thirds of the forecast area, where the warmest temperatures
aloft will be located. We should also see a decreasing trend for
convection through the day. But there is a different story at night.
It appears the elevated mixed layer will be straddling the forecast
area. Models are pretty good agreement depicting a northwest to
southeast corridor of precipitation associated with this temperature
demarcation and shows up well as an area of strong theta-e
convergence. Strong and moist isentropic ascent in the 305K to 310K
surface will help to initiate showers and storms. Shear may be
marginal for severe convection leading to a marginal risk for hail.
Rather, precipitable water values approaching 2" in the area will
likely lead to pockets of heavy rain during the overnight period.

Otherwise, daytime temperatures look to return to the upper 80s and
lower 90s on Tuesday and the the lower to middle 90s for Wednesday.
With high humidity in the area, afternoon heat indices will climb
into the 100 to 103 range for much of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The end of the week will feature above normal temperatures as upper
ridge buckles northward over the region in response to troughing
over the eastern and western US coast.  Strengthening low level
southwesterly flow should boost H8 temperatures into the +20C to
+24C range by Thursday continuing into the weekend.  Surface
temperatures in the lower and middle 90s combined with increasing
low level RH should produce heat index values near or slightly above
100.

Nocturnal convection could brush far northern Missouri along the
periphery of the upper ridge during this time period, but chances
appear to be fairly low at this time.  Better chance for
precipitation looks to hold off until early next week when some
flattening of the upper ridge occurs and a surface boundary works
southward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Operational models cont to try and generate thunderstorms over
northeast Kansas and move them into the terminals btn 09Z-12Z whereas
the hi-res models cont to generate nothing. This conts to lead to
low confidence TAF with VCTS btn 09Z-12Z. Otrw...conds will remain
VFR with sct-bkn cloud btn 5-6kft during the early morning hours
giving way to sct mid level clouds during the morning. Expect just
sct high cirrus tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will be lgt and
vrb through the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 190403
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Tonight:

There are several things working for and against getting convection
through the forecast area tonight and that is leading to a relatively
high level of uncertainty for a 6 to 12 hour forecast. Working for
the potential for storms tonight is a weak upper wave noted on
afternoon water vapor imagery in western South Dakota and Nebraska.
The other positive for storms tonight is strong isentropic ascent
around 310K from a strongly veered low level jet. A stronger upper
wave was noted in eastern North Dakota and that may drag a cold front
southward into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas which
could provide enough low level ascent to realize the modest to strong
instability present in the region. However, there is a stout cap in
place and the features previously mentioned are nebulous and weak so
it doesn`t seem like a really good probability for storms tonight.
Have generally kept the chances in the 40 percent range but felt the
strong and moist isentropic ascent would be enough to get some
showers and storms going so have PoPs as high as 50%. If this occurs,
shear is strong enough, probably on the order of 35 to 40 kts in the
0-6KM layer, to lead to some organization as any storms propagate
south/southeastward. *If* we`re able to get storms, there is the
potential they could produce strong and gusty winds as well as
marginally severe hail given the stronger shear working into the
area.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Tuesday will likely be very hot and humid across the southwestern
two-thirds of the forecast area, where the warmest temperatures
aloft will be located. We should also see a decreasing trend for
convection through the day. But there is a different story at night.
It appears the elevated mixed layer will be straddling the forecast
area. Models are pretty good agreement depicting a northwest to
southeast corridor of precipitation associated with this temperature
demarcation and shows up well as an area of strong theta-e
convergence. Strong and moist isentropic ascent in the 305K to 310K
surface will help to initiate showers and storms. Shear may be
marginal for severe convection leading to a marginal risk for hail.
Rather, precipitable water values approaching 2" in the area will
likely lead to pockets of heavy rain during the overnight period.

Otherwise, daytime temperatures look to return to the upper 80s and
lower 90s on Tuesday and the the lower to middle 90s for Wednesday.
With high humidity in the area, afternoon heat indices will climb
into the 100 to 103 range for much of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The end of the week will feature above normal temperatures as upper
ridge buckles northward over the region in response to troughing
over the eastern and western US coast.  Strengthening low level
southwesterly flow should boost H8 temperatures into the +20C to
+24C range by Thursday continuing into the weekend.  Surface
temperatures in the lower and middle 90s combined with increasing
low level RH should produce heat index values near or slightly above
100.

Nocturnal convection could brush far northern Missouri along the
periphery of the upper ridge during this time period, but chances
appear to be fairly low at this time.  Better chance for
precipitation looks to hold off until early next week when some
flattening of the upper ridge occurs and a surface boundary works
southward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Operational models cont to try and generate thunderstorms over
northeast Kansas and move them into the terminals btn 09Z-12Z whereas
the hi-res models cont to generate nothing. This conts to lead to
low confidence TAF with VCTS btn 09Z-12Z. Otrw...conds will remain
VFR with sct-bkn cloud btn 5-6kft during the early morning hours
giving way to sct mid level clouds during the morning. Expect just
sct high cirrus tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will be lgt and
vrb through the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KSGF 182357 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Mesoscale Discussion and Update to Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 657 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Rather interesting and tricky forecast for overnight tonight into
the daylight hours of Tuesday morning.

QPF from the various models are all over the place, most with
nothing affecting the area, while some have remnants of activity
to our north moving in and dissipating. The recent track record of
model QPF has been less than stellar. Case in point, several short
range models have indicated that we should have had quite a bit of
QPF over our area all afternoon. So, confidence in such information
is low.

There are items that support rain chances for our region beginning
later tonight. Isentropic upglide in the 310-315K levels along
with greater than 1000 J/kg of uncapped, elevated CAPE will focus
on northeastern Kansas as the low level jet gets cranked up late
this evening. The tail end of a short wave moving through the
Upper Midwest will also provide some help lift-wise as well. This
area of initiation will be on the southwestern edge of 25-30kt
0-6km bulk shear, with the best shear further to the northeast.
This is enough shear and CAPE to suggest that initial development
should create an organized cold pool. The critical question
becomes, just how quickly does this happen.

Initial forward propagating system motion vectors point to the
south/southeast. However, the low level jet will veer pretty
quickly overnight and the forward propagating vectors shift to a
more east/southeast direction. As a result, much depends on exact
timing.

The bottom line is that we will need to watch for initiation over
northeast Kansas later this evening. Just how this activity
progresses from there is up to timing. Will go ahead and massage
PoPs for overnight tonight through Tuesday morning to account for
the latest thoughts. Further refinements are expected as the
atmosphere shows it cards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure is currently pushing east
across the southwestern U.S. This is leaving the region in an
upper level northwest flow pattern. A weak disturbance is expected
to move through this northwest flow tonight and trigger storms
across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri late this
evening. This activity will then push to the southeast overnight
into Tuesday morning, mainly remaining north and east of the area
but may clip portions of central Missouri. Theta-E differences and
MUCAPE values over 2000 J/kg could support a few strong storms
wind gust in excess of 50 mph with any line segments that can
develop.

An outflow boundary from this activity will develop and push south
through the rest of the area tonight and Tuesday morning.
Additional storms will be possible along this boundary with the
best chances remaining along and north of the Highway 54 corridor,
with storms weakening as the approach Highway 60. This convection
should dissipate by the late morning hours Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The upper level high will move east and over the region by
Thursday. Storms are expected to develop across northern Missouri
again Tuesday night and push to the southeast again, but with the
upper level high pushing farther to the east this activity will
mainly occur north and east of the area, maybe just clipping the
far eastern Ozarks.

The upper level high will then remain over the region Thursday
into the weekend, ushering in a very warm air mass. Highs will
top up in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon Thursday into
this weekend, with heat index values generally in the 100 to 105
degree range. Afternoon mixing may help heat index values from
getting too out of hand but, never the less, hot conditions can
still be expected this week and weekend. Dry conditions are
also expected Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

See the mesoscale discussion above for details on the evolution of
the weather pattern over the next 12 or so hours. Implications on
the TAFs are for thunder to be included in PROB30 groups at both
JLN and SGF later tonight. This will be refined with further
updates in the coming hours. Overall, VFR conditions will be
common, though brief periods of MVFR/IFR will be possible if
thunderstorms can make it to the JLN/SGF aerodromes. Any lingering
activity should exit by midday and gusty southwest winds will
develop over the region Tuesday afternoon as skies clear. At this
point, thunder has not been included for BBG, though this may
change with later updates.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan






000
FXUS63 KSGF 182357 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Mesoscale Discussion and Update to Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 657 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Rather interesting and tricky forecast for overnight tonight into
the daylight hours of Tuesday morning.

QPF from the various models are all over the place, most with
nothing affecting the area, while some have remnants of activity
to our north moving in and dissipating. The recent track record of
model QPF has been less than stellar. Case in point, several short
range models have indicated that we should have had quite a bit of
QPF over our area all afternoon. So, confidence in such information
is low.

There are items that support rain chances for our region beginning
later tonight. Isentropic upglide in the 310-315K levels along
with greater than 1000 J/kg of uncapped, elevated CAPE will focus
on northeastern Kansas as the low level jet gets cranked up late
this evening. The tail end of a short wave moving through the
Upper Midwest will also provide some help lift-wise as well. This
area of initiation will be on the southwestern edge of 25-30kt
0-6km bulk shear, with the best shear further to the northeast.
This is enough shear and CAPE to suggest that initial development
should create an organized cold pool. The critical question
becomes, just how quickly does this happen.

Initial forward propagating system motion vectors point to the
south/southeast. However, the low level jet will veer pretty
quickly overnight and the forward propagating vectors shift to a
more east/southeast direction. As a result, much depends on exact
timing.

The bottom line is that we will need to watch for initiation over
northeast Kansas later this evening. Just how this activity
progresses from there is up to timing. Will go ahead and massage
PoPs for overnight tonight through Tuesday morning to account for
the latest thoughts. Further refinements are expected as the
atmosphere shows it cards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure is currently pushing east
across the southwestern U.S. This is leaving the region in an
upper level northwest flow pattern. A weak disturbance is expected
to move through this northwest flow tonight and trigger storms
across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri late this
evening. This activity will then push to the southeast overnight
into Tuesday morning, mainly remaining north and east of the area
but may clip portions of central Missouri. Theta-E differences and
MUCAPE values over 2000 J/kg could support a few strong storms
wind gust in excess of 50 mph with any line segments that can
develop.

An outflow boundary from this activity will develop and push south
through the rest of the area tonight and Tuesday morning.
Additional storms will be possible along this boundary with the
best chances remaining along and north of the Highway 54 corridor,
with storms weakening as the approach Highway 60. This convection
should dissipate by the late morning hours Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The upper level high will move east and over the region by
Thursday. Storms are expected to develop across northern Missouri
again Tuesday night and push to the southeast again, but with the
upper level high pushing farther to the east this activity will
mainly occur north and east of the area, maybe just clipping the
far eastern Ozarks.

The upper level high will then remain over the region Thursday
into the weekend, ushering in a very warm air mass. Highs will
top up in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon Thursday into
this weekend, with heat index values generally in the 100 to 105
degree range. Afternoon mixing may help heat index values from
getting too out of hand but, never the less, hot conditions can
still be expected this week and weekend. Dry conditions are
also expected Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

See the mesoscale discussion above for details on the evolution of
the weather pattern over the next 12 or so hours. Implications on
the TAFs are for thunder to be included in PROB30 groups at both
JLN and SGF later tonight. This will be refined with further
updates in the coming hours. Overall, VFR conditions will be
common, though brief periods of MVFR/IFR will be possible if
thunderstorms can make it to the JLN/SGF aerodromes. Any lingering
activity should exit by midday and gusty southwest winds will
develop over the region Tuesday afternoon as skies clear. At this
point, thunder has not been included for BBG, though this may
change with later updates.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan







000
FXUS63 KEAX 182326
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Tonight:

There are several things working for and against getting convection
through the forecast area tonight and that is leading to a relatively
high level of uncertainty for a 6 to 12 hour forecast. Working for
the potential for storms tonight is a weak upper wave noted on
afternoon water vapor imagery in western South Dakota and Nebraska.
The other positive for storms tonight is strong isentropic ascent
around 310K from a strongly veered low level jet. A stronger upper
wave was noted in eastern North Dakota and that may drag a cold front
southward into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas which
could provide enough low level ascent to realize the modest to strong
instability present in the region. However, there is a stout cap in
place and the features previously mentioned are nebulous and weak so
it doesn`t seem like a really good probability for storms tonight.
Have generally kept the chances in the 40 percent range but felt the
strong and moist isentropic ascent would be enough to get some
showers and storms going so have PoPs as high as 50%. If this occurs,
shear is strong enough, probably on the order of 35 to 40 kts in the
0-6KM layer, to lead to some organization as any storms propagate
south/southeastward. *If* we`re able to get storms, there is the
potential they could produce strong and gusty winds as well as
marginally severe hail given the stronger shear working into the
area.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Tuesday will likely be very hot and humid across the southwestern
two-thirds of the forecast area, where the warmest temperatures
aloft will be located. We should also see a decreasing trend for
convection through the day. But there is a different story at night.
It appears the elevated mixed layer will be straddling the forecast
area. Models are pretty good agreement depicting a northwest to
southeast corridor of precipitation associated with this temperature
demarcation and shows up well as an area of strong theta-e
convergence. Strong and moist isentropic ascent in the 305K to 310K
surface will help to initiate showers and storms. Shear may be
marginal for severe convection leading to a marginal risk for hail.
Rather, precipitable water values approaching 2" in the area will
likely lead to pockets of heavy rain during the overnight period.

Otherwise, daytime temperatures look to return to the upper 80s and
lower 90s on Tuesday and the the lower to middle 90s for Wednesday.
With high humidity in the area, afternoon heat indices will climb
into the 100 to 103 range for much of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The end of the week will feature above normal temperatures as upper
ridge buckles northward over the region in response to troughing
over the eastern and western US coast.  Strengthening low level
southwesterly flow should boost H8 temperatures into the +20C to
+24C range by Thursday continuing into the weekend.  Surface
temperatures in the lower and middle 90s combined with increasing
low level RH should produce heat index values near or slightly above
100.

Nocturnal convection could brush far northern Missouri along the
periphery of the upper ridge during this time period, but chances
appear to be fairly low at this time.  Better chance for
precipitation looks to hold off until early next week when some
flattening of the upper ridge occurs and a surface boundary works
southward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conds will cont thru midnight. However, after midnight, the
operational models are dvlpg ts acrs nern KS and nwrn MO btn 06Z-08Z.
There is some uncertainty in thunderstorm dvlpment though since the
short range hi-res models are not dvlpg thunderstorms tonight. With
dvlpment uncertain have contd VCTS mention in the TAF affecting the
terminals btn 08Z-12Z. Otherwise conds should remain VFR with clr
skies tonight giving way to sct-bkn clouds btn 5-6kft after midnight.
Thru the day tomorrow expect sct mid lvl clouds. Winds tonight will
be light out of the south before becmg lgt and vrb tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...73






000
FXUS63 KEAX 182326
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
626 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Tonight:

There are several things working for and against getting convection
through the forecast area tonight and that is leading to a relatively
high level of uncertainty for a 6 to 12 hour forecast. Working for
the potential for storms tonight is a weak upper wave noted on
afternoon water vapor imagery in western South Dakota and Nebraska.
The other positive for storms tonight is strong isentropic ascent
around 310K from a strongly veered low level jet. A stronger upper
wave was noted in eastern North Dakota and that may drag a cold front
southward into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas which
could provide enough low level ascent to realize the modest to strong
instability present in the region. However, there is a stout cap in
place and the features previously mentioned are nebulous and weak so
it doesn`t seem like a really good probability for storms tonight.
Have generally kept the chances in the 40 percent range but felt the
strong and moist isentropic ascent would be enough to get some
showers and storms going so have PoPs as high as 50%. If this occurs,
shear is strong enough, probably on the order of 35 to 40 kts in the
0-6KM layer, to lead to some organization as any storms propagate
south/southeastward. *If* we`re able to get storms, there is the
potential they could produce strong and gusty winds as well as
marginally severe hail given the stronger shear working into the
area.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Tuesday will likely be very hot and humid across the southwestern
two-thirds of the forecast area, where the warmest temperatures
aloft will be located. We should also see a decreasing trend for
convection through the day. But there is a different story at night.
It appears the elevated mixed layer will be straddling the forecast
area. Models are pretty good agreement depicting a northwest to
southeast corridor of precipitation associated with this temperature
demarcation and shows up well as an area of strong theta-e
convergence. Strong and moist isentropic ascent in the 305K to 310K
surface will help to initiate showers and storms. Shear may be
marginal for severe convection leading to a marginal risk for hail.
Rather, precipitable water values approaching 2" in the area will
likely lead to pockets of heavy rain during the overnight period.

Otherwise, daytime temperatures look to return to the upper 80s and
lower 90s on Tuesday and the the lower to middle 90s for Wednesday.
With high humidity in the area, afternoon heat indices will climb
into the 100 to 103 range for much of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The end of the week will feature above normal temperatures as upper
ridge buckles northward over the region in response to troughing
over the eastern and western US coast.  Strengthening low level
southwesterly flow should boost H8 temperatures into the +20C to
+24C range by Thursday continuing into the weekend.  Surface
temperatures in the lower and middle 90s combined with increasing
low level RH should produce heat index values near or slightly above
100.

Nocturnal convection could brush far northern Missouri along the
periphery of the upper ridge during this time period, but chances
appear to be fairly low at this time.  Better chance for
precipitation looks to hold off until early next week when some
flattening of the upper ridge occurs and a surface boundary works
southward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conds will cont thru midnight. However, after midnight, the
operational models are dvlpg ts acrs nern KS and nwrn MO btn 06Z-08Z.
There is some uncertainty in thunderstorm dvlpment though since the
short range hi-res models are not dvlpg thunderstorms tonight. With
dvlpment uncertain have contd VCTS mention in the TAF affecting the
terminals btn 08Z-12Z. Otherwise conds should remain VFR with clr
skies tonight giving way to sct-bkn clouds btn 5-6kft after midnight.
Thru the day tomorrow expect sct mid lvl clouds. Winds tonight will
be light out of the south before becmg lgt and vrb tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KLSX 182307
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Weak cold front and shortwave expected to bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the area late tonight, especially
across parts of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. This is
where the nose of the westerly low level jet will reside.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT
Mon Aug 18 2014

Weather story this week will be DANGEROUS HEAT building into the
Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Have decided to issue an
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for Wednesday through Sunday for St. Louis
County, St. Louis City, Madison and St. Clair Counties in
Illinois. Appears temperatures will reach the middle 90s by
Wednesday with heat index readings between 100 and 105 degrees in
the City of St. Louis, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s
for the remainder of the watch period and afternoon and early
evening heat index values around 105 degrees common across the
entire watch area.

Summer pattern will take shape this week as high pressure aloft
builds across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The
transition to the pattern will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region tonight and tomorrow night as the warm
front lifts north across the region. Heat will build across the
region with the hottest temperatures likely occurring Saturday and
Sunday as thermal ridge (+24 to +26C at 850mb) is directly overhead.

The heat should subside by Monday as a cold front moves through the
area and temperatures return to normal.

The chances of precipitation after Tuesday night look very low as
area remains capped under the influence of the upper level ridge.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Diurnal cumulus clouds mainly across the St Louis metro area will
dissipate early this evening due to the loss of daytime heating. A
complex of thunderstorms is expected to drop southeastward through
west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly impacting or
at least grazing COU. There may also be more scattered
showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight ahead of a
weak surface trough dropping southeastward through northwest MO
and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the UIN and COU
tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be mid-high level
warm air advection cloudiness along with convective debris
cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Mainly a light sly surface wind tonight, then gradually strengthening
on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly direction by late Tuesday
afternoon. There may be some patchy light fog late tonight, mainly
in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Few-sct diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate
early this evening, with mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 12 kts
Tuesday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 182307
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Weak cold front and shortwave expected to bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the area late tonight, especially
across parts of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. This is
where the nose of the westerly low level jet will reside.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT
Mon Aug 18 2014

Weather story this week will be DANGEROUS HEAT building into the
Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Have decided to issue an
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for Wednesday through Sunday for St. Louis
County, St. Louis City, Madison and St. Clair Counties in
Illinois. Appears temperatures will reach the middle 90s by
Wednesday with heat index readings between 100 and 105 degrees in
the City of St. Louis, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s
for the remainder of the watch period and afternoon and early
evening heat index values around 105 degrees common across the
entire watch area.

Summer pattern will take shape this week as high pressure aloft
builds across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The
transition to the pattern will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region tonight and tomorrow night as the warm
front lifts north across the region. Heat will build across the
region with the hottest temperatures likely occurring Saturday and
Sunday as thermal ridge (+24 to +26C at 850mb) is directly overhead.

The heat should subside by Monday as a cold front moves through the
area and temperatures return to normal.

The chances of precipitation after Tuesday night look very low as
area remains capped under the influence of the upper level ridge.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Diurnal cumulus clouds mainly across the St Louis metro area will
dissipate early this evening due to the loss of daytime heating. A
complex of thunderstorms is expected to drop southeastward through
west central and southwest MO late tonight, possibly impacting or
at least grazing COU. There may also be more scattered
showers/storms moving through UIN area late tonight ahead of a
weak surface trough dropping southeastward through northwest MO
and southeast IA. Will include VCSH or VCTS in the UIN and COU
tafs late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Should be mid-high level
warm air advection cloudiness along with convective debris
cloudiness late tonight/Tuesday morning. Should also be scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds again late Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Mainly a light sly surface wind tonight, then gradually strengthening
on Tuesday and veering around to a w-swly direction by late Tuesday
afternoon. There may be some patchy light fog late tonight, mainly
in SUS and CPS.

Specifics for KSTL: Few-sct diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate
early this evening, with mid-high level clouds late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Weakening convection may impact STL Tuesday
morning, but will leave the STL taf dry for now as the better
chance of showers/storms should be north and west of STL late
tonight and west-southwest of STL Tuesday morning. Scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds should develop again late Tuesday morning
and afternoon. Light sly surface winds tonight, then veering
around to a swly direction Tuesday and increasing to about 12 kts
Tuesday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 182012
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
312 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Weak cold front and shortwave expected to bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the area late tonight, especially
across parts of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. This is
where the nose of the westerly low level jet will reside.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT
Mon Aug 18 2014

Weather story this week will be DANGEROUS HEAT building into the
Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Have decided to issue an
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for Wednesday through Sunday for St. Louis
County, St. Louis City, Madison and St. Clair Counties in
Illinois. Appears temperatures will reach the middle 90s by
Wednesday with heat index readings between 100 and 105 degrees in
the City of St. Louis, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s
for the remainder of the watch period and afternoon and early
evening heat index values around 105 degrees common across the
entire watch area.

Summer pattern will take shape this week as high pressure aloft
builds across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The
transition to the pattern will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region tonight and tomorrow night as the warm
front lifts north across the region. Heat will build across the
region with the hottest temperatures likely occurring Saturday and
Sunday as thermal ridge (+24 to +26C at 850mb) is directly overhead.

The heat should subside by Monday as a cold front moves through the
area and temperatures return to normal.

The chances of precipitation after Tuesday night look very low as
area remains capped under the influence of the upper level ridge.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Fog has dissipated with stratus lifting and scattering out.
However, diurnal cu popping up, so will see low end vfr/high end
mvfr cigs this afternoon before scattering out towards sunset. As
for winds, to remain light and variable most locations before
becoming southerly this evening, then veer to the southwest
Tuesday morning ahead of next frontal boundary. Could see showers
move into central mo after 10z Tuesday, but confidence is hard to
pin down so just have vcnty showers for now.

Specifics for KSTL:
Fog has dissipated with stratus lifting and scattering out.
However, diurnal cu popping up, so will see low end vfr/high end
mvfr cigs this afternoon before scattering out after 01z Tuesday.
As for winds, to remain light and variable before becoming
southerly this evening, then veer to the southwest by 13z Tuesday
morning ahead of next frontal boundary, then to the west with
frontal passage around 21z Tuesday. Precipitation with frontal
boundary hard to pin down, so kept taf dry for now.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 182012
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
312 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Weak cold front and shortwave expected to bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the area late tonight, especially
across parts of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. This is
where the nose of the westerly low level jet will reside.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT
Mon Aug 18 2014

Weather story this week will be DANGEROUS HEAT building into the
Greater St. Louis Metropolitan Area. Have decided to issue an
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH for Wednesday through Sunday for St. Louis
County, St. Louis City, Madison and St. Clair Counties in
Illinois. Appears temperatures will reach the middle 90s by
Wednesday with heat index readings between 100 and 105 degrees in
the City of St. Louis, with temperatures rising into the upper 90s
for the remainder of the watch period and afternoon and early
evening heat index values around 105 degrees common across the
entire watch area.

Summer pattern will take shape this week as high pressure aloft
builds across the lower and middle Mississippi River valley. The
transition to the pattern will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the region tonight and tomorrow night as the warm
front lifts north across the region. Heat will build across the
region with the hottest temperatures likely occurring Saturday and
Sunday as thermal ridge (+24 to +26C at 850mb) is directly overhead.

The heat should subside by Monday as a cold front moves through the
area and temperatures return to normal.

The chances of precipitation after Tuesday night look very low as
area remains capped under the influence of the upper level ridge.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Fog has dissipated with stratus lifting and scattering out.
However, diurnal cu popping up, so will see low end vfr/high end
mvfr cigs this afternoon before scattering out towards sunset. As
for winds, to remain light and variable most locations before
becoming southerly this evening, then veer to the southwest
Tuesday morning ahead of next frontal boundary. Could see showers
move into central mo after 10z Tuesday, but confidence is hard to
pin down so just have vcnty showers for now.

Specifics for KSTL:
Fog has dissipated with stratus lifting and scattering out.
However, diurnal cu popping up, so will see low end vfr/high end
mvfr cigs this afternoon before scattering out after 01z Tuesday.
As for winds, to remain light and variable before becoming
southerly this evening, then veer to the southwest by 13z Tuesday
morning ahead of next frontal boundary, then to the west with
frontal passage around 21z Tuesday. Precipitation with frontal
boundary hard to pin down, so kept taf dry for now.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     evening FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KEAX 181955
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
255 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Tonight:

There are several things working for and against getting convection
through the forecast area tonight and that is leading to a relatively
high level of uncertainty for a 6 to 12 hour forecast. Working for
the potential for storms tonight is a weak upper wave noted on
afternoon water vapor imagery in western South Dakota and Nebraska.
The other positive for storms tonight is strong isentropic ascent
around 310K from a strongly veered low level jet. A stronger upper
wave was noted in eastern North Dakota and that may drag a cold front
southward into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas which
could provide enough low level ascent to realize the modest to strong
instability present in the region. However, there is a stout cap in
place and the features previously mentioned are nebulous and weak so
it doesn`t seem like a really good probability for storms tonight.
Have generally kept the chances in the 40 percent range but felt the
strong and moist isentropic ascent would be enough to get some
showers and storms going so have PoPs as high as 50%. If this occurs,
shear is strong enough, probably on the order of 35 to 40 kts in the
0-6KM layer, to lead to some organization as any storms propagate
south/southeastward. *If* we`re able to get storms, there is the
potential they could produce strong and gusty winds as well as
marginally severe hail given the stronger shear working into the
area.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Tuesday will likely be very hot and humid across the southwestern
two-thirds of the forecast area, where the warmest temperatures
aloft will be located. We should also see a decreasing trend for
convection through the day. But there is a different story at night.
It appears the elevated mixed layer will be straddling the forecast
area. Models are pretty good agreement depicting a northwest to
southeast corridor of precipitation associated with this temperature
demarcation and shows up well as an area of strong theta-e
convergence. Strong and moist isentropic ascent in the 305K to 310K
surface will help to initiate showers and storms. Shear may be
marginal for severe convection leading to a marginal risk for hail.
Rather, precipitable water values approaching 2" in the area will
likely lead to pockets of heavy rain during the overnight period.

Otherwise, daytime temperatures look to return to the upper 80s and
lower 90s on Tuesday and the the lower to middle 90s for Wednesday.
With high humidity in the area, afternoon heat indices will climb
into the 100 to 103 range for much of the forecast area.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The end of the week will feature above normal temperatures as upper
ridge buckles northward over the region in response to troughing
over the eastern and western US coast.  Strengthening low level
southwesterly flow should boost H8 temperatures into the +20C to
+24C range by Thursday continuing into the weekend.  Surface
temperatures in the lower and middle 90s combined with increasing
low level RH should produce heat index values near or slightly above
100.

Nocturnal convection could brush far northern Missouri along the
periphery of the upper ridge during this time period, but chances
appear to be fairly low at this time.  Better chance for
precipitation looks to hold off until early next week when some
flattening of the upper ridge occurs and a surface boundary works
southward into the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with the possible
exception of late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Several models
continue to show possible thunderstorms moving through the area
during this time frame from generally the north/northwest to the
south/southeast. There remains enough uncertainty with timing and
location that the VCTS group remains the best option in the 06Z to
12Z time frame.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KEAX 181955
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
255 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Tonight:

There are several things working for and against getting convection
through the forecast area tonight and that is leading to a relatively
high level of uncertainty for a 6 to 12 hour forecast. Working for
the potential for storms tonight is a weak upper wave noted on
afternoon water vapor imagery in western South Dakota and Nebraska.
The other positive for storms tonight is strong isentropic ascent
around 310K from a strongly veered low level jet. A stronger upper
wave was noted in eastern North Dakota and that may drag a cold front
southward into northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas which
could provide enough low level ascent to realize the modest to strong
instability present in the region. However, there is a stout cap in
place and the features previously mentioned are nebulous and weak so
it doesn`t seem like a really good probability for storms tonight.
Have generally kept the chances in the 40 percent range but felt the
strong and moist isentropic ascent would be enough to get some
showers and storms going so have PoPs as high as 50%. If this occurs,
shear is strong enough, probably on the order of 35 to 40 kts in the
0-6KM layer, to lead to some organization as any storms propagate
south/southeastward. *If* we`re able to get storms, there is the
potential they could produce strong and gusty winds as well as
marginally severe hail given the stronger shear working into the
area.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Tuesday will likely be very hot and humid across the southwestern
two-thirds of the forecast area, where the warmest temperatures
aloft will be located. We should also see a decreasing trend for
convection through the day. But there is a different story at night.
It appears the elevated mixed layer will be straddling the forecast
area. Models are pretty good agreement depicting a northwest to
southeast corridor of precipitation associated with this temperature
demarcation and shows up well as an area of strong theta-e
convergence. Strong and moist isentropic ascent in the 305K to 310K
surface will help to initiate showers and storms. Shear may be
marginal for severe convection leading to a marginal risk for hail.
Rather, precipitable water values approaching 2" in the area will
likely lead to pockets of heavy rain during the overnight period.

Otherwise, daytime temperatures look to return to the upper 80s and
lower 90s on Tuesday and the the lower to middle 90s for Wednesday.
With high humidity in the area, afternoon heat indices will climb
into the 100 to 103 range for much of the forecast area.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The end of the week will feature above normal temperatures as upper
ridge buckles northward over the region in response to troughing
over the eastern and western US coast.  Strengthening low level
southwesterly flow should boost H8 temperatures into the +20C to
+24C range by Thursday continuing into the weekend.  Surface
temperatures in the lower and middle 90s combined with increasing
low level RH should produce heat index values near or slightly above
100.

Nocturnal convection could brush far northern Missouri along the
periphery of the upper ridge during this time period, but chances
appear to be fairly low at this time.  Better chance for
precipitation looks to hold off until early next week when some
flattening of the upper ridge occurs and a surface boundary works
southward into the region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with the possible
exception of late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Several models
continue to show possible thunderstorms moving through the area
during this time frame from generally the north/northwest to the
south/southeast. There remains enough uncertainty with timing and
location that the VCTS group remains the best option in the 06Z to
12Z time frame.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Mitchell
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181950
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure is currently pushing east
across the southwestern U.S. This is leaving the region in an
upper level northwest flow pattern. A weak disturbance is expected
to move through this northwest flow tonight and trigger storms
across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri late this
evening. This activity will then push to the southeast overnight
into Tuesday morning, mainly remaining north and east of the area
but may clip portions of central Missouri. Theta-E differences and
MUCAPE values over 2000 J/kg could support a few strong storms
wind gust in excess of 50 mph with any line segments that can
develop.

An outflow boundary from this activity will develop and push south
through the rest of the area tonight and Tuesday morning.
Additional storms will be possible along this boundary with the
best chances remaining along and north of the Highway 54 corridor,
with storms weakening as the approach Highway 60. This convection
should dissipate by the late morning hours Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The upper level high will move east and over the region by
Thursday. Storms are expected to develop across northern Missouri
again Tuesday night and push to the southeast again, but with the
upper level high pushing farther to the east this activity will
mainly occur north and east of the area, maybe just clipping the
far eastern Ozarks.

The upper level high will then remain over the region Thursday
into the weekend, ushering in a very warm air mass. Highs will
top up in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon Thursday into
this weekend, with heat index values generally in the 100 to 105
degree range. Afternoon mixing may help heat index values from
getting too out of hand but, never the less, hot conditions can
still be expected this week and weekend. Dry conditions are
also expected Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Weak sfc
high pressure over the area today will shift east with a south and
then sw sfc wind becoming established as a warm front lifts
through the area. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop
along and north of the front, but high res models weaken the
storms by the time they make it as far south as the taf sites.
Will continue with a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period,
but better chances for storms are expected to the north and
northeast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA








000
FXUS63 KSGF 181950
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure is currently pushing east
across the southwestern U.S. This is leaving the region in an
upper level northwest flow pattern. A weak disturbance is expected
to move through this northwest flow tonight and trigger storms
across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri late this
evening. This activity will then push to the southeast overnight
into Tuesday morning, mainly remaining north and east of the area
but may clip portions of central Missouri. Theta-E differences and
MUCAPE values over 2000 J/kg could support a few strong storms
wind gust in excess of 50 mph with any line segments that can
develop.

An outflow boundary from this activity will develop and push south
through the rest of the area tonight and Tuesday morning.
Additional storms will be possible along this boundary with the
best chances remaining along and north of the Highway 54 corridor,
with storms weakening as the approach Highway 60. This convection
should dissipate by the late morning hours Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The upper level high will move east and over the region by
Thursday. Storms are expected to develop across northern Missouri
again Tuesday night and push to the southeast again, but with the
upper level high pushing farther to the east this activity will
mainly occur north and east of the area, maybe just clipping the
far eastern Ozarks.

The upper level high will then remain over the region Thursday
into the weekend, ushering in a very warm air mass. Highs will
top up in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon Thursday into
this weekend, with heat index values generally in the 100 to 105
degree range. Afternoon mixing may help heat index values from
getting too out of hand but, never the less, hot conditions can
still be expected this week and weekend. Dry conditions are
also expected Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Weak sfc
high pressure over the area today will shift east with a south and
then sw sfc wind becoming established as a warm front lifts
through the area. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop
along and north of the front, but high res models weaken the
storms by the time they make it as far south as the taf sites.
Will continue with a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period,
but better chances for storms are expected to the north and
northeast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA









000
FXUS63 KSGF 181808
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. There were a few storms over northern Arkansas,
along with a storm cluster in central Kansas that produced some
severe wind gusts.

Heading into today`s period, max temperatures will increase by a
few degrees, putting many locations in the lower 90s by mid
afternoon.

There doesn`t appear to be any triggers for convection through
today, therefore we`ll keep the forecast dry through 7 pm.

Rain chances will definitely start to increase into tonight`s
overnight hours, as a speed max located over South Dakota forces a
complex of storms to fire somewhere around Topeka Kansas or St.
Joe Missouri. Storm motion vectors along with 0-3 km shear
vectors, would suggest propagation to the southeast, and directly
into the Missouri Ozarks.

The NAM shows storms moving into west central Missouri by
midnight, and spreading southeast into the rest of the area
between midnight and 6 am.

The Ozarks environment could be sufficiently unstable for a few
severe thunderstorms, and deep layer shear is expected to range
from 15 to 25 knots. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size
of quarters would be possible with the stronger updrafts given
this environment. We will include a mention of severe
thunderstorms into this morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

A few residual showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
morning, prior to completely dissipating by early afternoon. At
this point, a major warming trend will begin, which highlights the
extended forecast.

A strong summertime high will expand across the Ozarks Region late
in the week, and could persist for 3 - 5 days.

The 00z runs from the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a stronger high
center, along with an extended period of time that it could
persist over the area.

Model guidance has been too cool the last few days, but has been
gradually increasing in values. Therefore we continued to bump
guidance numbers up about 4 degrees for the Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday periods. We currently have temps running from 96 to 100
degrees those three afternoons. Max heat indices will range from
100 - 105 degrees. This late week air mass will include the hottest
temperatures so far this summer.

It`s quite possible this heat could extend into Sunday or even
early in the following week given the latest trends from the GFS
and ECMWF slower to break down the high.

No precipitation is forecasted beyond Tuesday morning as the
summertime high should suppress any updraft attempts.

Have a great work week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Weak sfc
high pressure over the area today will shift east with a south and
then sw sfc wind becoming established as a warm front lifts
through the area. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop
along and north of the front, but high res models weaken the
storms by the time they make it as far south as the taf sites.
Will continue with a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period,
but better chances for storms are expected to the north and
northeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181808
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. There were a few storms over northern Arkansas,
along with a storm cluster in central Kansas that produced some
severe wind gusts.

Heading into today`s period, max temperatures will increase by a
few degrees, putting many locations in the lower 90s by mid
afternoon.

There doesn`t appear to be any triggers for convection through
today, therefore we`ll keep the forecast dry through 7 pm.

Rain chances will definitely start to increase into tonight`s
overnight hours, as a speed max located over South Dakota forces a
complex of storms to fire somewhere around Topeka Kansas or St.
Joe Missouri. Storm motion vectors along with 0-3 km shear
vectors, would suggest propagation to the southeast, and directly
into the Missouri Ozarks.

The NAM shows storms moving into west central Missouri by
midnight, and spreading southeast into the rest of the area
between midnight and 6 am.

The Ozarks environment could be sufficiently unstable for a few
severe thunderstorms, and deep layer shear is expected to range
from 15 to 25 knots. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size
of quarters would be possible with the stronger updrafts given
this environment. We will include a mention of severe
thunderstorms into this morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

A few residual showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
morning, prior to completely dissipating by early afternoon. At
this point, a major warming trend will begin, which highlights the
extended forecast.

A strong summertime high will expand across the Ozarks Region late
in the week, and could persist for 3 - 5 days.

The 00z runs from the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a stronger high
center, along with an extended period of time that it could
persist over the area.

Model guidance has been too cool the last few days, but has been
gradually increasing in values. Therefore we continued to bump
guidance numbers up about 4 degrees for the Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday periods. We currently have temps running from 96 to 100
degrees those three afternoons. Max heat indices will range from
100 - 105 degrees. This late week air mass will include the hottest
temperatures so far this summer.

It`s quite possible this heat could extend into Sunday or even
early in the following week given the latest trends from the GFS
and ECMWF slower to break down the high.

No precipitation is forecasted beyond Tuesday morning as the
summertime high should suppress any updraft attempts.

Have a great work week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Weak sfc
high pressure over the area today will shift east with a south and
then sw sfc wind becoming established as a warm front lifts
through the area. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop
along and north of the front, but high res models weaken the
storms by the time they make it as far south as the taf sites.
Will continue with a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period,
but better chances for storms are expected to the north and
northeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181808
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. There were a few storms over northern Arkansas,
along with a storm cluster in central Kansas that produced some
severe wind gusts.

Heading into today`s period, max temperatures will increase by a
few degrees, putting many locations in the lower 90s by mid
afternoon.

There doesn`t appear to be any triggers for convection through
today, therefore we`ll keep the forecast dry through 7 pm.

Rain chances will definitely start to increase into tonight`s
overnight hours, as a speed max located over South Dakota forces a
complex of storms to fire somewhere around Topeka Kansas or St.
Joe Missouri. Storm motion vectors along with 0-3 km shear
vectors, would suggest propagation to the southeast, and directly
into the Missouri Ozarks.

The NAM shows storms moving into west central Missouri by
midnight, and spreading southeast into the rest of the area
between midnight and 6 am.

The Ozarks environment could be sufficiently unstable for a few
severe thunderstorms, and deep layer shear is expected to range
from 15 to 25 knots. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size
of quarters would be possible with the stronger updrafts given
this environment. We will include a mention of severe
thunderstorms into this morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

A few residual showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
morning, prior to completely dissipating by early afternoon. At
this point, a major warming trend will begin, which highlights the
extended forecast.

A strong summertime high will expand across the Ozarks Region late
in the week, and could persist for 3 - 5 days.

The 00z runs from the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a stronger high
center, along with an extended period of time that it could
persist over the area.

Model guidance has been too cool the last few days, but has been
gradually increasing in values. Therefore we continued to bump
guidance numbers up about 4 degrees for the Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday periods. We currently have temps running from 96 to 100
degrees those three afternoons. Max heat indices will range from
100 - 105 degrees. This late week air mass will include the hottest
temperatures so far this summer.

It`s quite possible this heat could extend into Sunday or even
early in the following week given the latest trends from the GFS
and ECMWF slower to break down the high.

No precipitation is forecasted beyond Tuesday morning as the
summertime high should suppress any updraft attempts.

Have a great work week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Weak sfc
high pressure over the area today will shift east with a south and
then sw sfc wind becoming established as a warm front lifts
through the area. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop
along and north of the front, but high res models weaken the
storms by the time they make it as far south as the taf sites.
Will continue with a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period,
but better chances for storms are expected to the north and
northeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181808
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. There were a few storms over northern Arkansas,
along with a storm cluster in central Kansas that produced some
severe wind gusts.

Heading into today`s period, max temperatures will increase by a
few degrees, putting many locations in the lower 90s by mid
afternoon.

There doesn`t appear to be any triggers for convection through
today, therefore we`ll keep the forecast dry through 7 pm.

Rain chances will definitely start to increase into tonight`s
overnight hours, as a speed max located over South Dakota forces a
complex of storms to fire somewhere around Topeka Kansas or St.
Joe Missouri. Storm motion vectors along with 0-3 km shear
vectors, would suggest propagation to the southeast, and directly
into the Missouri Ozarks.

The NAM shows storms moving into west central Missouri by
midnight, and spreading southeast into the rest of the area
between midnight and 6 am.

The Ozarks environment could be sufficiently unstable for a few
severe thunderstorms, and deep layer shear is expected to range
from 15 to 25 knots. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size
of quarters would be possible with the stronger updrafts given
this environment. We will include a mention of severe
thunderstorms into this morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

A few residual showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
morning, prior to completely dissipating by early afternoon. At
this point, a major warming trend will begin, which highlights the
extended forecast.

A strong summertime high will expand across the Ozarks Region late
in the week, and could persist for 3 - 5 days.

The 00z runs from the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a stronger high
center, along with an extended period of time that it could
persist over the area.

Model guidance has been too cool the last few days, but has been
gradually increasing in values. Therefore we continued to bump
guidance numbers up about 4 degrees for the Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday periods. We currently have temps running from 96 to 100
degrees those three afternoons. Max heat indices will range from
100 - 105 degrees. This late week air mass will include the hottest
temperatures so far this summer.

It`s quite possible this heat could extend into Sunday or even
early in the following week given the latest trends from the GFS
and ECMWF slower to break down the high.

No precipitation is forecasted beyond Tuesday morning as the
summertime high should suppress any updraft attempts.

Have a great work week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Weak sfc
high pressure over the area today will shift east with a south and
then sw sfc wind becoming established as a warm front lifts
through the area. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop
along and north of the front, but high res models weaken the
storms by the time they make it as far south as the taf sites.
Will continue with a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period,
but better chances for storms are expected to the north and
northeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA







000
FXUS63 KLSX 181743
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Temperatures will begin to moderate today as low clouds and early morning
fog dissipate/lift. Skies will first begin to clear up across central
Missouri with areas east of the Mississippi River seeing more cloud cover
into the early afternoon. Consequently...did lean a bit warmer across
western sections of the CWFA and a bit cooler than guidance for
south-central Illinois.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

(Tonight - Tuesday night)

Upper-air pattern will begin a transition period from northwest flow
to a building and amplifying anticyclone aloft by later in the week.
During the transition period...a potentialy active period of time
is possible through Tuesday night. The first chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be overnight tonight as a Pacific cold front approaches
the mid-Mississippi Valley. GFS hints at a subtle shortwave trough
transversing the area interacting with a broad westerly LLJ. There
actually could be two distinct areas of precipitation that may develop:
1) mainly to the north of the area in closer proximity to parent
UL trough axis and where stronger LL convergence will reside and 2) further
to the southwest across the Missouri River Valley on nose of westerly
LLJ. For now...broadbrushed PoPs with highest PoPs across central
and north-central Missouri. Area of showers/storms likely will weaken
late night and into Tuesday as 850-hPa frontal boundary progresses
through most of region.

Believe Tuesday should mostly be a dry day as Pacific cold front pushes
through the area and washes out. Chances of showers and storms should be
confined to southeastern portions of the CWFA ahead of front.

A better chance of more widespread convection will be on Tuesday night
as frontal boundary slowly retreats northward as a warm front and interacts
with 20+ knot zonal LLJ.


(Wednesday - Sunday)

Upper-level heights will begin to rise on Wednesday as high pressure aloft
begins to take hold. Leeside cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over the
western High Plains as a vort max ejects out of the deep trough near
southern California. This sfc low is expected to move northeast into
the northern Plains by Wednesday night and should push the warm front
north of our area by Thursday. Chances for convection will decrease from
south to north mid to late this week as frontal boundary moves north of
area and midlevel temperatures warm aiding in capping the atmosphere.

Dominant feature will continue to be amplified upper ridge across
the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will be in stark contrast to the
prevailing pattern across the CONUS since July 1st. Highs will be in the
90s beginning Thursday through the end of next weekend. Raised highs a
couple of degrees from CR initialization and still likely am not warm
enough. Ambient temperatures may even approach or top the century mark
depending on if afternoon dewpoints mix out for portions of the area late
this week and/or next weekend. To add insult to injury...at this juncture
do not see a definitive end to the heat/humidity in sight...so prepare for
a prolonged period of potentially dangerous heat. Heat headlines will likely
be needed at some point this week if forecast confidence continues to
increase. A silver lining...at least this heat will be occuring in late
August...cooler fall weather is not too terribly long over the horizon.

Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Fog has dissipated with stratus lifting and scattering out.
However, diurnal cu popping up, so will see low end vfr/high end
mvfr cigs this afternoon before scattering out towards sunset. As
for winds, to remain light and variable most locations before
becoming southerly this evening, then veer to the southwest
Tuesday morning ahead of next frontal boundary. Could see showers
move into central mo after 10z Tuesday, but confidence is hard to
pin down so just have vcnty showers for now.

Specifics for KSTL:
Fog has dissipated with stratus lifting and scattering out.
However, diurnal cu popping up, so will see low end vfr/high end
mvfr cigs this afternoon before scattering out after 01z Tuesday.
As for winds, to remain light and variable before becoming
southerly this evening, then veer to the southwest by 13z Tuesday
morning ahead of next frontal boundary, then to the west with
frontal passage around 21z Tuesday. Precipitation with frontal
boundary hard to pin down, so kept taf dry for now.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 181743
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Temperatures will begin to moderate today as low clouds and early morning
fog dissipate/lift. Skies will first begin to clear up across central
Missouri with areas east of the Mississippi River seeing more cloud cover
into the early afternoon. Consequently...did lean a bit warmer across
western sections of the CWFA and a bit cooler than guidance for
south-central Illinois.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

(Tonight - Tuesday night)

Upper-air pattern will begin a transition period from northwest flow
to a building and amplifying anticyclone aloft by later in the week.
During the transition period...a potentialy active period of time
is possible through Tuesday night. The first chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be overnight tonight as a Pacific cold front approaches
the mid-Mississippi Valley. GFS hints at a subtle shortwave trough
transversing the area interacting with a broad westerly LLJ. There
actually could be two distinct areas of precipitation that may develop:
1) mainly to the north of the area in closer proximity to parent
UL trough axis and where stronger LL convergence will reside and 2) further
to the southwest across the Missouri River Valley on nose of westerly
LLJ. For now...broadbrushed PoPs with highest PoPs across central
and north-central Missouri. Area of showers/storms likely will weaken
late night and into Tuesday as 850-hPa frontal boundary progresses
through most of region.

Believe Tuesday should mostly be a dry day as Pacific cold front pushes
through the area and washes out. Chances of showers and storms should be
confined to southeastern portions of the CWFA ahead of front.

A better chance of more widespread convection will be on Tuesday night
as frontal boundary slowly retreats northward as a warm front and interacts
with 20+ knot zonal LLJ.


(Wednesday - Sunday)

Upper-level heights will begin to rise on Wednesday as high pressure aloft
begins to take hold. Leeside cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over the
western High Plains as a vort max ejects out of the deep trough near
southern California. This sfc low is expected to move northeast into
the northern Plains by Wednesday night and should push the warm front
north of our area by Thursday. Chances for convection will decrease from
south to north mid to late this week as frontal boundary moves north of
area and midlevel temperatures warm aiding in capping the atmosphere.

Dominant feature will continue to be amplified upper ridge across
the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will be in stark contrast to the
prevailing pattern across the CONUS since July 1st. Highs will be in the
90s beginning Thursday through the end of next weekend. Raised highs a
couple of degrees from CR initialization and still likely am not warm
enough. Ambient temperatures may even approach or top the century mark
depending on if afternoon dewpoints mix out for portions of the area late
this week and/or next weekend. To add insult to injury...at this juncture
do not see a definitive end to the heat/humidity in sight...so prepare for
a prolonged period of potentially dangerous heat. Heat headlines will likely
be needed at some point this week if forecast confidence continues to
increase. A silver lining...at least this heat will be occuring in late
August...cooler fall weather is not too terribly long over the horizon.

Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Fog has dissipated with stratus lifting and scattering out.
However, diurnal cu popping up, so will see low end vfr/high end
mvfr cigs this afternoon before scattering out towards sunset. As
for winds, to remain light and variable most locations before
becoming southerly this evening, then veer to the southwest
Tuesday morning ahead of next frontal boundary. Could see showers
move into central mo after 10z Tuesday, but confidence is hard to
pin down so just have vcnty showers for now.

Specifics for KSTL:
Fog has dissipated with stratus lifting and scattering out.
However, diurnal cu popping up, so will see low end vfr/high end
mvfr cigs this afternoon before scattering out after 01z Tuesday.
As for winds, to remain light and variable before becoming
southerly this evening, then veer to the southwest by 13z Tuesday
morning ahead of next frontal boundary, then to the west with
frontal passage around 21z Tuesday. Precipitation with frontal
boundary hard to pin down, so kept taf dry for now.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 181715
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Overnight MCS over central KS dissipated rapidly as it encountered a
dry airmass over our area. This airmass should allow the remnant
cirrus shield to gradually thin through the day with skies generally
partly to mostly sunny. Meanwhile veering low-level flow will bring a
surge of warm air at 850 hPa into eastern KS and western MO through
the day, supportive of temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across much of the area this afternoon.

Tonight a weak front will sag south out of Nebraska and Iowa toward
northeast KS and far northwest MO. Overall lift along the front will
be weak, and may not be able to overcome fairly strong capping
associated with the aforementioned surge of warm 850 hPa
temperatures. However, last few runs of the NAM and GFS have been
indicating a low-level jet may develop toward 06Z and feed into the
front over northeast KS/northwest MO later this evening. Lift ahead
of this jet is strong enough in the NAM, GFS and a few WRF runs to
break the cap and get a potential convective complex going over much
of the forecast area overnight. Confidence in this actually happening
is not terribly high given the degree of capping in place, so kept
PoPs limited to 30 to 40 percent for now. Should storms develop, mid-
level winds and elevated instability above the CAP could be strong
enough for a few robust storms capable of strong winds and perhaps
some hail.

The story beyond Monday turns to heat as ridging begins to build
into the center of the country. An associated warm front lifting
through the area Tuesday night could spark a few storms especially
north of I-70, otherwise the primary storm track should shift north
of the area through the remainder of the week. Trended a bit warmer
than model guidance for the Wednesday through Sunday period with
highs in the lower to middle 90s for the entire area. Can`t rule out
a few upper 90s later this week for areas south and west of the KC
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with the possible
exception of late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Several models
continue to show possible thunderstorms moving through the area
during this time frame from generally the north/northwest to the
south/southeast. There remains enough uncertainty with timing and
location that the VCTS group remains the best option in the 06Z to
12Z time frame.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...CDB






000
FXUS63 KEAX 181715
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Overnight MCS over central KS dissipated rapidly as it encountered a
dry airmass over our area. This airmass should allow the remnant
cirrus shield to gradually thin through the day with skies generally
partly to mostly sunny. Meanwhile veering low-level flow will bring a
surge of warm air at 850 hPa into eastern KS and western MO through
the day, supportive of temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across much of the area this afternoon.

Tonight a weak front will sag south out of Nebraska and Iowa toward
northeast KS and far northwest MO. Overall lift along the front will
be weak, and may not be able to overcome fairly strong capping
associated with the aforementioned surge of warm 850 hPa
temperatures. However, last few runs of the NAM and GFS have been
indicating a low-level jet may develop toward 06Z and feed into the
front over northeast KS/northwest MO later this evening. Lift ahead
of this jet is strong enough in the NAM, GFS and a few WRF runs to
break the cap and get a potential convective complex going over much
of the forecast area overnight. Confidence in this actually happening
is not terribly high given the degree of capping in place, so kept
PoPs limited to 30 to 40 percent for now. Should storms develop, mid-
level winds and elevated instability above the CAP could be strong
enough for a few robust storms capable of strong winds and perhaps
some hail.

The story beyond Monday turns to heat as ridging begins to build
into the center of the country. An associated warm front lifting
through the area Tuesday night could spark a few storms especially
north of I-70, otherwise the primary storm track should shift north
of the area through the remainder of the week. Trended a bit warmer
than model guidance for the Wednesday through Sunday period with
highs in the lower to middle 90s for the entire area. Can`t rule out
a few upper 90s later this week for areas south and west of the KC
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with the possible
exception of late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Several models
continue to show possible thunderstorms moving through the area
during this time frame from generally the north/northwest to the
south/southeast. There remains enough uncertainty with timing and
location that the VCTS group remains the best option in the 06Z to
12Z time frame.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...CDB







000
FXUS63 KLSX 181143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Temperatures will begin to moderate today as low clouds and early morning
fog dissipate/lift. Skies will first begin to clear up across central
Missouri with areas east of the Mississippi River seeing more cloud cover
into the early afternoon. Consequently...did lean a bit warmer across
western sections of the CWFA and a bit cooler than guidance for
south-central Illinois.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014


(Tonight - Tuesday night)

Upper-air pattern will begin a transition period from northwest flow
to a building and amplifying anticyclone aloft by later in the week.
During the transition period...a potentialy active period of time
is possible through Tuesday night. The first chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be overnight tonight as a Pacific cold front approaches
the mid-Mississippi Valley. GFS hints at a subtle shortwave trough
transversing the area interacting with a broad westerly LLJ. There
actually could be two distinct areas of precipitation that may develop:
1) mainly to the north of the area in closer proximity to parent
UL trough axis and where stronger LL convergence will reside and 2) further
to the southwest across the Missouri River Valley on nose of westerly
LLJ. For now...broadbrushed PoPs with highest PoPs across central
and north-central Missouri. Area of showers/storms likely will weaken
late night and into Tuesday as 850-hPa frontal boundary progresses
through most of region.

Believe Tuesday should mostly be a dry day as Pacific cold front pushes
through the area and washes out. Chances of showers and storms should be
confined to southeastern portions of the CWFA ahead of front.

A better chance of more widespread convection will be on Tuesday night
as frontal boundary slowly retreats northward as a warm front and interacts
with 20+ knot zonal LLJ.


(Wednesday - Sunday)

Upper-level heights will begin to rise on Wednesday as high pressure aloft
begins to take hold. Leeside cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over the
western High Plains as a vort max ejects out of the deep trough near
southern California. This sfc low is expected to move northeast into
the northern Plains by Wednesday night and should push the warm front
north of our area by Thursday. Chances for convection will decrease from
south to north mid to late this week as frontal boundary moves north of
area and midlevel temperatures warm aiding in capping the atmosphere.

Dominant feature will continue to be amplified upper ridge across
the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will be in stark contrast to the
prevailing pattern across the CONUS since July 1st. Highs will be in the
90s beginning Thursday through the end of next weekend. Raised highs a
couple of degrees from CR initialization and still likely am not warm
enough. Ambient temperatures may even approach or top the century mark
depending on if afternoon dewpoints mix out for portions of the area late
this week and/or next weekend. To add insult to injury...at this juncture
do not see a definitive end to the heat/humidity in sight...so prepare for
a prolonged period of potentially dangerous heat. Heat headlines will likely
be needed at some point this week if forecast confidence continues to
increase. A silver lining...at least this heat will be occuring in late
August...cooler fall weather is not too terribly long over the horizon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

FG will slowly lift to IFR and low MVFR cigs over the next hour or
two. Believe these cigs will be slow to lift and break up, but
there is a lot of uncertainty how long that will take. Otherwise,
light and vrb winds with VFR conditions expected. However, TSRA
are possible late tonight. Believe the best chances will be at
COU, but the TSRA complex is currently expected to remain W of the
terminal.

Specifics for KSTL: FG will lift to IFR, then MVFR cigs over the
next hour or so. These cigs shud gradually lift and become sct,
but uncertain how long that will take to become VFR. Otherwise,
light winds are expected. Can not rule out a chance for TSRA late
tonight, but chances are too low to mention attm.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 181143
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Temperatures will begin to moderate today as low clouds and early morning
fog dissipate/lift. Skies will first begin to clear up across central
Missouri with areas east of the Mississippi River seeing more cloud cover
into the early afternoon. Consequently...did lean a bit warmer across
western sections of the CWFA and a bit cooler than guidance for
south-central Illinois.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014


(Tonight - Tuesday night)

Upper-air pattern will begin a transition period from northwest flow
to a building and amplifying anticyclone aloft by later in the week.
During the transition period...a potentialy active period of time
is possible through Tuesday night. The first chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be overnight tonight as a Pacific cold front approaches
the mid-Mississippi Valley. GFS hints at a subtle shortwave trough
transversing the area interacting with a broad westerly LLJ. There
actually could be two distinct areas of precipitation that may develop:
1) mainly to the north of the area in closer proximity to parent
UL trough axis and where stronger LL convergence will reside and 2) further
to the southwest across the Missouri River Valley on nose of westerly
LLJ. For now...broadbrushed PoPs with highest PoPs across central
and north-central Missouri. Area of showers/storms likely will weaken
late night and into Tuesday as 850-hPa frontal boundary progresses
through most of region.

Believe Tuesday should mostly be a dry day as Pacific cold front pushes
through the area and washes out. Chances of showers and storms should be
confined to southeastern portions of the CWFA ahead of front.

A better chance of more widespread convection will be on Tuesday night
as frontal boundary slowly retreats northward as a warm front and interacts
with 20+ knot zonal LLJ.


(Wednesday - Sunday)

Upper-level heights will begin to rise on Wednesday as high pressure aloft
begins to take hold. Leeside cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over the
western High Plains as a vort max ejects out of the deep trough near
southern California. This sfc low is expected to move northeast into
the northern Plains by Wednesday night and should push the warm front
north of our area by Thursday. Chances for convection will decrease from
south to north mid to late this week as frontal boundary moves north of
area and midlevel temperatures warm aiding in capping the atmosphere.

Dominant feature will continue to be amplified upper ridge across
the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will be in stark contrast to the
prevailing pattern across the CONUS since July 1st. Highs will be in the
90s beginning Thursday through the end of next weekend. Raised highs a
couple of degrees from CR initialization and still likely am not warm
enough. Ambient temperatures may even approach or top the century mark
depending on if afternoon dewpoints mix out for portions of the area late
this week and/or next weekend. To add insult to injury...at this juncture
do not see a definitive end to the heat/humidity in sight...so prepare for
a prolonged period of potentially dangerous heat. Heat headlines will likely
be needed at some point this week if forecast confidence continues to
increase. A silver lining...at least this heat will be occuring in late
August...cooler fall weather is not too terribly long over the horizon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

FG will slowly lift to IFR and low MVFR cigs over the next hour or
two. Believe these cigs will be slow to lift and break up, but
there is a lot of uncertainty how long that will take. Otherwise,
light and vrb winds with VFR conditions expected. However, TSRA
are possible late tonight. Believe the best chances will be at
COU, but the TSRA complex is currently expected to remain W of the
terminal.

Specifics for KSTL: FG will lift to IFR, then MVFR cigs over the
next hour or so. These cigs shud gradually lift and become sct,
but uncertain how long that will take to become VFR. Otherwise,
light winds are expected. Can not rule out a chance for TSRA late
tonight, but chances are too low to mention attm.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181127
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. There were a few storms over northern Arkansas,
along with a storm cluster in central Kansas that produced some
severe wind gusts.

Heading into today`s period, max temperatures will increase by a
few degrees, putting many locations in the lower 90s by mid
afternoon.

There doesn`t appear to be any triggers for convection through
today, therefore we`ll keep the forecast dry through 7 pm.

Rain chances will definitely start to increase into tonight`s
overnight hours, as a speed max located over South Dakota forces a
complex of storms to fire somewhere around Topeka Kansas or St.
Joe Missouri. Storm motion vectors along with 0-3 km shear
vectors, would suggest propagation to the southeast, and directly
into the Missouri Ozarks.

The NAM shows storms moving into west central Missouri by
midnight, and spreading southeast into the rest of the area
between midnight and 6 am.

The Ozarks environment could be sufficiently unstable for a few
severe thunderstorms, and deep layer shear is expected to range
from 15 to 25 knots. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size
of quarters would be possible with the stronger updrafts given
this environment. We will include a mention of severe
thunderstorms into this morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

A few residual showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
morning, prior to completely dissipating by early afternoon. At
this point, a major warming trend will begin, which highlights the
extended forecast.

A strong summertime high will expand across the Ozarks Region late
in the week, and could persist for 3 - 5 days.

The 00z runs from the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a stronger high
center, along with an extended period of time that it could
persist over the area.

Model guidance has been too cool the last few days, but has been
gradually increasing in values. Therefore we continued to bump
guidance numbers up about 4 degrees for the Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday periods. We currently have temps running from 96 to 100
degrees those three afternoons. Max heat indices will range from
100 - 105 degrees. This late week airmass will include the hottest
temperatures so far this summer.

It`s quite possible this heat could extend into Sunday or even
early in the following week given the latest trends from the GFS
and ECMWF slower to break down the high.

No precipitation is forecasted beyond Tuesday morning as the
summertime high should suppress any updraft attempts.

Have a great work week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The threat for low ceilings and fog has diminished for southern
Missouri this morning. Some patchy shallow ground fog will remain
possible, but coverage/impact is expected to be too low to include
in the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist
through this evening. A low level jet stream will then bring low
level wind shear to the area overnight. This jet stream may also
fuel a complex of thunderstorms across portions of Missouri late
tonight. If these storms materialize, they could clip the
Springfield aerodrome.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>081-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181127
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. There were a few storms over northern Arkansas,
along with a storm cluster in central Kansas that produced some
severe wind gusts.

Heading into today`s period, max temperatures will increase by a
few degrees, putting many locations in the lower 90s by mid
afternoon.

There doesn`t appear to be any triggers for convection through
today, therefore we`ll keep the forecast dry through 7 pm.

Rain chances will definitely start to increase into tonight`s
overnight hours, as a speed max located over South Dakota forces a
complex of storms to fire somewhere around Topeka Kansas or St.
Joe Missouri. Storm motion vectors along with 0-3 km shear
vectors, would suggest propagation to the southeast, and directly
into the Missouri Ozarks.

The NAM shows storms moving into west central Missouri by
midnight, and spreading southeast into the rest of the area
between midnight and 6 am.

The Ozarks environment could be sufficiently unstable for a few
severe thunderstorms, and deep layer shear is expected to range
from 15 to 25 knots. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size
of quarters would be possible with the stronger updrafts given
this environment. We will include a mention of severe
thunderstorms into this morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

A few residual showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
morning, prior to completely dissipating by early afternoon. At
this point, a major warming trend will begin, which highlights the
extended forecast.

A strong summertime high will expand across the Ozarks Region late
in the week, and could persist for 3 - 5 days.

The 00z runs from the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a stronger high
center, along with an extended period of time that it could
persist over the area.

Model guidance has been too cool the last few days, but has been
gradually increasing in values. Therefore we continued to bump
guidance numbers up about 4 degrees for the Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday periods. We currently have temps running from 96 to 100
degrees those three afternoons. Max heat indices will range from
100 - 105 degrees. This late week airmass will include the hottest
temperatures so far this summer.

It`s quite possible this heat could extend into Sunday or even
early in the following week given the latest trends from the GFS
and ECMWF slower to break down the high.

No precipitation is forecasted beyond Tuesday morning as the
summertime high should suppress any updraft attempts.

Have a great work week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The threat for low ceilings and fog has diminished for southern
Missouri this morning. Some patchy shallow ground fog will remain
possible, but coverage/impact is expected to be too low to include
in the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist
through this evening. A low level jet stream will then bring low
level wind shear to the area overnight. This jet stream may also
fuel a complex of thunderstorms across portions of Missouri late
tonight. If these storms materialize, they could clip the
Springfield aerodrome.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>081-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KEAX 181052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Overnight MCS over central KS dissipated rapidly as it encountered a
dry airmass over our area. This airmass should allow the remnant
cirrus shield to gradually thin through the day with skies generally
partly to mostly sunny. Meanwhile veering low-level flow will bring a
surge of warm air at 850 hPa into eastern KS and western MO through
the day, supportive of temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across much of the area this afternoon.

Tonight a weak front will sag south out of Nebraska and Iowa toward
northeast KS and far northwest MO. Overall lift along the front will
be weak, and may not be able to overcome fairly strong capping
associated with the aforementioned surge of warm 850 hPa
temperatures. However, last few runs of the NAM and GFS have been
indicating a low-level jet may develop toward 06Z and feed into the
front over northeast KS/northwest MO later this evening. Lift ahead
of this jet is strong enough in the NAM, GFS and a few WRF runs to
break the cap and get a potential convective complex going over much
of the forecast area overnight. Confidence in this actually happening
is not terribly high given the degree of capping in place, so kept
PoPs limited to 30 to 40 percent for now. Should storms develop, mid-
level winds and elevated instability above the CAP could be strong
enough for a few robust storms capable of strong winds and perhaps
some hail.

The story beyond Monday turns to heat as ridging begins to build
into the center of the country. An associated warm front lifting
through the area Tuesday night could spark a few storms especially
north of I-70, otherwise the primary storm track should shift north
of the area through the remainder of the week. Trended a bit warmer
than model guidance for the Wednesday through Sunday period with
highs in the lower to middle 90s for the entire area. Can`t rule out
a few upper 90s later this week for areas south and west of the KC
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 55 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Areas of dense fog have developed across central Missouri this
morning, with the western edge about 50 miles to the east of MCI/MKC.
This fog should remain to the east of the KC area airports and will
gradually lift by 9 AM.

Once fog clears out, the rest of the day looks generally clear with
perhaps a few cumulus in the afternoon. There is the potential for a
thunderstorm complex to develop over northeast KS and northwest MO
later this evening which could spread into central MO overnight,
possibly impacting the KC terminals. This may be an "all or nothing"
situation with storms possibly failing to materialize at all. Current
thinking is there is about a 40 percent chance that these storms
will develop, and will handle this uncertainty with a VCTS group for
now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 181052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Overnight MCS over central KS dissipated rapidly as it encountered a
dry airmass over our area. This airmass should allow the remnant
cirrus shield to gradually thin through the day with skies generally
partly to mostly sunny. Meanwhile veering low-level flow will bring a
surge of warm air at 850 hPa into eastern KS and western MO through
the day, supportive of temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across much of the area this afternoon.

Tonight a weak front will sag south out of Nebraska and Iowa toward
northeast KS and far northwest MO. Overall lift along the front will
be weak, and may not be able to overcome fairly strong capping
associated with the aforementioned surge of warm 850 hPa
temperatures. However, last few runs of the NAM and GFS have been
indicating a low-level jet may develop toward 06Z and feed into the
front over northeast KS/northwest MO later this evening. Lift ahead
of this jet is strong enough in the NAM, GFS and a few WRF runs to
break the cap and get a potential convective complex going over much
of the forecast area overnight. Confidence in this actually happening
is not terribly high given the degree of capping in place, so kept
PoPs limited to 30 to 40 percent for now. Should storms develop, mid-
level winds and elevated instability above the CAP could be strong
enough for a few robust storms capable of strong winds and perhaps
some hail.

The story beyond Monday turns to heat as ridging begins to build
into the center of the country. An associated warm front lifting
through the area Tuesday night could spark a few storms especially
north of I-70, otherwise the primary storm track should shift north
of the area through the remainder of the week. Trended a bit warmer
than model guidance for the Wednesday through Sunday period with
highs in the lower to middle 90s for the entire area. Can`t rule out
a few upper 90s later this week for areas south and west of the KC
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 55 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Areas of dense fog have developed across central Missouri this
morning, with the western edge about 50 miles to the east of MCI/MKC.
This fog should remain to the east of the KC area airports and will
gradually lift by 9 AM.

Once fog clears out, the rest of the day looks generally clear with
perhaps a few cumulus in the afternoon. There is the potential for a
thunderstorm complex to develop over northeast KS and northwest MO
later this evening which could spread into central MO overnight,
possibly impacting the KC terminals. This may be an "all or nothing"
situation with storms possibly failing to materialize at all. Current
thinking is there is about a 40 percent chance that these storms
will develop, and will handle this uncertainty with a VCTS group for
now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 180903
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Temperatures will begin to moderate today as low clouds and early morning
fog dissipate/lift. Skies will first begin to clear up across central
Missouri with areas east of the Mississippi River seeing more cloud cover
into the early afternoon. Consequently...did lean a bit warmer across
western sections of the CWFA and a bit cooler than guidance for
south-central Illinois.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014


(Tonight - Tuesday night)

Upper-air pattern will begin a transition period from northwest flow
to a building and amplifying anticyclone aloft by later in the week.
During the transition period...a potentialy active period of time
is possible through Tuesday night. The first chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be overnight tonight as a Pacific cold front approaches
the mid-Mississippi Valley. GFS hints at a subtle shortwave trough
transversing the area interacting with a broad westerly LLJ. There
actually could be two distinct areas of precipitation that may develop:
1) mainly to the north of the area in closer proximity to parent
UL trough axis and where stronger LL convergence will reside and 2) further
to the southwest across the Missouri River Valley on nose of westerly
LLJ. For now...broadbrushed PoPs with highest PoPs across central
and north-central Missouri. Area of showers/storms likely will weaken
late night and into Tuesday as 850-hPa frontal boundary progresses
through most of region.

Believe Tuesday should mostly be a dry day as Pacific cold front pushes
through the area and washes out. Chances of showers and storms should be
confined to southeastern portions of the CWFA ahead of front.

A better chance of more widespread convection will be on Tuesday night
as frontal boundary slowly retreats northward as a warm front and interacts
with 20+ knot zonal LLJ.


(Wednesday - Sunday)

Upper-level heights will begin to rise on Wednesday as high pressure aloft
begins to take hold. Leeside cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over the
western High Plains as a vort max ejects out of the deep trough near
southern California. This sfc low is expected to move northeast into
the northern Plains by Wednesday night and should push the warm front
north of our area by Thursday. Chances for convection will decrease from
south to north mid to late this week as frontal boundary moves north of
area and midlevel temperatures warm aiding in capping the atmosphere.

Dominant feature will continue to be amplified upper ridge across
the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will be in stark contrast to the
prevailing pattern across the CONUS since July 1st. Highs will be in the
90s beginning Thursday through the end of next weekend. Raised highs a
couple of degrees from CR initialization and still likely am not warm
enough. Ambient temperatures may even approach or top the century mark
depending on if afternoon dewpoints mix out for portions of the area late
this week and/or next weekend. To add insult to injury...at this juncture
do not see a definitive end to the heat/humidity in sight...so prepare for
a prolonged period of potentially dangerous heat. Heat headlines will likely
be needed at some point this week if forecast confidence continues to
increase. A silver lining...at least this heat will be occuring in late
August...cooler fall weather is not too terribly long over the horizon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

Against all previous expectations, an expansive IFR/MVFR cloud
deck dissipated within a few hours after sunset despite the highly
moist low layers and the onset of nocturnal cooling. The resulting
conditions (mostly clear skies and light winds) are now highly
favorable for radiation fog, which had already developed at KUIN
prior to the 06z TAF issuance. The latest thinking is that fog
with IFR visibilities and occasional broken ceilings/limited
vertical visibilities will occur at all TAF sites overnight, then
lift during the morning hours with VFR conditions expected by 18z
at all sites. This is a much more optimistic forecast than the
previous set of TAFs due to the lack of an initial stratus deck.
One element that may complicate the forecast is an expanding area
of cirrus associated with ongoing thunderstorm complexes over
KS/NE. This area of cirrus could interfere with radiational fog
processes at times, particularly at KCOU/KUIN. Such interference
would keep visibilities from falling as low as currently forecast.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     86  73  90  73 /  10  30  20  30
Quincy          83  69  87  68 /  10  40  10  30
Columbia        88  70  91  71 /  10  50  20  40
Jefferson City  88  71  91  72 /  10  50  20  40
Salem           83  69  88  70 /  10  20  30  30
Farmington      86  71  91  72 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 180903
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Today)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

Temperatures will begin to moderate today as low clouds and early morning
fog dissipate/lift. Skies will first begin to clear up across central
Missouri with areas east of the Mississippi River seeing more cloud cover
into the early afternoon. Consequently...did lean a bit warmer across
western sections of the CWFA and a bit cooler than guidance for
south-central Illinois.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014


(Tonight - Tuesday night)

Upper-air pattern will begin a transition period from northwest flow
to a building and amplifying anticyclone aloft by later in the week.
During the transition period...a potentialy active period of time
is possible through Tuesday night. The first chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be overnight tonight as a Pacific cold front approaches
the mid-Mississippi Valley. GFS hints at a subtle shortwave trough
transversing the area interacting with a broad westerly LLJ. There
actually could be two distinct areas of precipitation that may develop:
1) mainly to the north of the area in closer proximity to parent
UL trough axis and where stronger LL convergence will reside and 2) further
to the southwest across the Missouri River Valley on nose of westerly
LLJ. For now...broadbrushed PoPs with highest PoPs across central
and north-central Missouri. Area of showers/storms likely will weaken
late night and into Tuesday as 850-hPa frontal boundary progresses
through most of region.

Believe Tuesday should mostly be a dry day as Pacific cold front pushes
through the area and washes out. Chances of showers and storms should be
confined to southeastern portions of the CWFA ahead of front.

A better chance of more widespread convection will be on Tuesday night
as frontal boundary slowly retreats northward as a warm front and interacts
with 20+ knot zonal LLJ.


(Wednesday - Sunday)

Upper-level heights will begin to rise on Wednesday as high pressure aloft
begins to take hold. Leeside cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over the
western High Plains as a vort max ejects out of the deep trough near
southern California. This sfc low is expected to move northeast into
the northern Plains by Wednesday night and should push the warm front
north of our area by Thursday. Chances for convection will decrease from
south to north mid to late this week as frontal boundary moves north of
area and midlevel temperatures warm aiding in capping the atmosphere.

Dominant feature will continue to be amplified upper ridge across
the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will be in stark contrast to the
prevailing pattern across the CONUS since July 1st. Highs will be in the
90s beginning Thursday through the end of next weekend. Raised highs a
couple of degrees from CR initialization and still likely am not warm
enough. Ambient temperatures may even approach or top the century mark
depending on if afternoon dewpoints mix out for portions of the area late
this week and/or next weekend. To add insult to injury...at this juncture
do not see a definitive end to the heat/humidity in sight...so prepare for
a prolonged period of potentially dangerous heat. Heat headlines will likely
be needed at some point this week if forecast confidence continues to
increase. A silver lining...at least this heat will be occuring in late
August...cooler fall weather is not too terribly long over the horizon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

Against all previous expectations, an expansive IFR/MVFR cloud
deck dissipated within a few hours after sunset despite the highly
moist low layers and the onset of nocturnal cooling. The resulting
conditions (mostly clear skies and light winds) are now highly
favorable for radiation fog, which had already developed at KUIN
prior to the 06z TAF issuance. The latest thinking is that fog
with IFR visibilities and occasional broken ceilings/limited
vertical visibilities will occur at all TAF sites overnight, then
lift during the morning hours with VFR conditions expected by 18z
at all sites. This is a much more optimistic forecast than the
previous set of TAFs due to the lack of an initial stratus deck.
One element that may complicate the forecast is an expanding area
of cirrus associated with ongoing thunderstorm complexes over
KS/NE. This area of cirrus could interfere with radiational fog
processes at times, particularly at KCOU/KUIN. Such interference
would keep visibilities from falling as low as currently forecast.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     86  73  90  73 /  10  30  20  30
Quincy          83  69  87  68 /  10  40  10  30
Columbia        88  70  91  71 /  10  50  20  40
Jefferson City  88  71  91  72 /  10  50  20  40
Salem           83  69  88  70 /  10  20  30  30
Farmington      86  71  91  72 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 180839
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Overnight MCS over central KS dissipated rapidly as it encountered a
dry airmass over our area. This airmass should allow the remnant
cirrus shield to gradually thin through the day with skies generally
partly to mostly sunny. Meanwhile veering low-level flow will bring a
surge of warm air at 850 hPa into eastern KS and western MO through
the day, supportive of temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across much of the area this afternoon.

Tonight a weak front will sag south out of Nebraska and Iowa toward
northeast KS and far northwest MO. Overall lift along the front will
be weak, and may not be able to overcome fairly strong capping
associated with the aforementioned surge of warm 850 hPa
temperatures. However, last few runs of the NAM and GFS have been
indicating a low-level jet may develop toward 06Z and feed into the
front over northeast KS/northwest MO later this evening. Lift ahead
of this jet is strong enough in the NAM, GFS and a few WRF runs to
break the cap and get a potential convective complex going over much
of the forecast area overnight. Confidence in this actually happening
is not terribly high given the degree of capping in place, so kept
PoPs limited to 30 to 40 percent for now. Should storms develop, mid-
level winds and elevated instability above the CAP could be strong
enough for a few robust storms capable of strong winds and perhaps
some hail.

The story beyond Monday turns to heat as ridging begins to build
into the center of the country. An associated warm front lifting
through the area Tuesday night could spark a few storms especially
north of I-70, otherwise the primary storm track should shift north
of the area through the remainder of the week. Trended a bit warmer
than model guidance for the Wednesday through Sunday period with
highs in the lower to middle 90s for the entire area. Can`t rule out
a few upper 90s later this week for areas south and west of the KC
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Convective complex from southeast NE through central KS is finally
weakening as the KS portion start to drop south. Weakening showers
likely over northeast KS but may barely reach far northwest MO and
west central MO before dissipating. Associated outflow boundary is
slowing its eastward push but cold still pass through the terminals
by 08z with winds briefly shift to the west and increase.

The convective cloud debris will overspread western MO and greatly
diminish the fog threat at all 3 terminals. Areas of fog over
northeast and central MO could become more dense overnight with
visibilities less than a mile.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 180839
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Overnight MCS over central KS dissipated rapidly as it encountered a
dry airmass over our area. This airmass should allow the remnant
cirrus shield to gradually thin through the day with skies generally
partly to mostly sunny. Meanwhile veering low-level flow will bring a
surge of warm air at 850 hPa into eastern KS and western MO through
the day, supportive of temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across much of the area this afternoon.

Tonight a weak front will sag south out of Nebraska and Iowa toward
northeast KS and far northwest MO. Overall lift along the front will
be weak, and may not be able to overcome fairly strong capping
associated with the aforementioned surge of warm 850 hPa
temperatures. However, last few runs of the NAM and GFS have been
indicating a low-level jet may develop toward 06Z and feed into the
front over northeast KS/northwest MO later this evening. Lift ahead
of this jet is strong enough in the NAM, GFS and a few WRF runs to
break the cap and get a potential convective complex going over much
of the forecast area overnight. Confidence in this actually happening
is not terribly high given the degree of capping in place, so kept
PoPs limited to 30 to 40 percent for now. Should storms develop, mid-
level winds and elevated instability above the CAP could be strong
enough for a few robust storms capable of strong winds and perhaps
some hail.

The story beyond Monday turns to heat as ridging begins to build
into the center of the country. An associated warm front lifting
through the area Tuesday night could spark a few storms especially
north of I-70, otherwise the primary storm track should shift north
of the area through the remainder of the week. Trended a bit warmer
than model guidance for the Wednesday through Sunday period with
highs in the lower to middle 90s for the entire area. Can`t rule out
a few upper 90s later this week for areas south and west of the KC
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Convective complex from southeast NE through central KS is finally
weakening as the KS portion start to drop south. Weakening showers
likely over northeast KS but may barely reach far northwest MO and
west central MO before dissipating. Associated outflow boundary is
slowing its eastward push but cold still pass through the terminals
by 08z with winds briefly shift to the west and increase.

The convective cloud debris will overspread western MO and greatly
diminish the fog threat at all 3 terminals. Areas of fog over
northeast and central MO could become more dense overnight with
visibilities less than a mile.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KSGF 180823
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...STORMS TONIGHT - HOT WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. There were a few storms over northern Arkansas,
along with a storm cluster in central Kansas that produced some
severe wind gusts.

Heading into today`s period, max temperatures will increase by a
few degrees, putting many locations in the lower 90s by mid
afternoon.

There doesn`t appear to be any triggers for convection through
today, therefore we`ll keep the forecast dry through 7 pm.

Rain chances will definitely start to increase into tonights
overnight hours, as a speed max located over South Dakota forces a
complex of storms to fire somewhere around Topeka Kansas or St.
Joe Missouri. Storm motion vectors along with 0-3 km shear
vectors, would suggest propagation to the southeast, and directly
into the Missouri Ozarks.

The NAM shows storms moving into west central Missouri by
midnight, and spreading southeast into the rest of the area
between midnight and 6 am.

The Ozarks environment could be sufficiently unstable for a few
severe thunderstorms, and deep layer shear is expected to range
from 15 to 25 knots. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size
of quarters would be possible with the stronger updrafts given
this environment. We will include a mention of severe
thunderstorms into this morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

A few residual showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
morning, prior to completely dissipating by early afternoon. At
this point, a major warming trend will begin, which highlights the
extended forecast.

A strong summertime high will expand across the Ozarks Region late
in the week, and could persist for 3 - 5 days.

The 00z runs from the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a stronger high
center, along with an extended period of time that it could
persist over the area.

Model guidance has been too cool the last few days, but has been
gradually increasing in values. Therefore we continued to bump
guidance numbers up about 4 degrees for the Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday periods. We currently have temps running from 96 to 100
degrees those three afternoons. Max heat indices will range from
100 - 105 degrees. This late week airmass will include the hottest
temperatures so far this summer.

It`s quite possible this heat could extend into Sunday or even
early in the following week given the latest trends from the GFS
and ECMWF slower to break down the high.

No precipitation is forecasted beyond Tuesday morning as the
summertime high should suppress any updraft attempts.

Have a great work week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Low clouds and fog are expected to develop from late tonight into
early Monday morning across portions of southern Missouri. The
greatest chances for multiple hours of IFR will be at Springfield
and Branson where local terrain will come into play. There is also
the potential for LIFR around sunrise. Flight conditions will
then improve to VFR by late Monday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 180823
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...STORMS TONIGHT - HOT WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. There were a few storms over northern Arkansas,
along with a storm cluster in central Kansas that produced some
severe wind gusts.

Heading into today`s period, max temperatures will increase by a
few degrees, putting many locations in the lower 90s by mid
afternoon.

There doesn`t appear to be any triggers for convection through
today, therefore we`ll keep the forecast dry through 7 pm.

Rain chances will definitely start to increase into tonights
overnight hours, as a speed max located over South Dakota forces a
complex of storms to fire somewhere around Topeka Kansas or St.
Joe Missouri. Storm motion vectors along with 0-3 km shear
vectors, would suggest propagation to the southeast, and directly
into the Missouri Ozarks.

The NAM shows storms moving into west central Missouri by
midnight, and spreading southeast into the rest of the area
between midnight and 6 am.

The Ozarks environment could be sufficiently unstable for a few
severe thunderstorms, and deep layer shear is expected to range
from 15 to 25 knots. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size
of quarters would be possible with the stronger updrafts given
this environment. We will include a mention of severe
thunderstorms into this morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

A few residual showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
morning, prior to completely dissipating by early afternoon. At
this point, a major warming trend will begin, which highlights the
extended forecast.

A strong summertime high will expand across the Ozarks Region late
in the week, and could persist for 3 - 5 days.

The 00z runs from the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a stronger high
center, along with an extended period of time that it could
persist over the area.

Model guidance has been too cool the last few days, but has been
gradually increasing in values. Therefore we continued to bump
guidance numbers up about 4 degrees for the Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday periods. We currently have temps running from 96 to 100
degrees those three afternoons. Max heat indices will range from
100 - 105 degrees. This late week airmass will include the hottest
temperatures so far this summer.

It`s quite possible this heat could extend into Sunday or even
early in the following week given the latest trends from the GFS
and ECMWF slower to break down the high.

No precipitation is forecasted beyond Tuesday morning as the
summertime high should suppress any updraft attempts.

Have a great work week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Low clouds and fog are expected to develop from late tonight into
early Monday morning across portions of southern Missouri. The
greatest chances for multiple hours of IFR will be at Springfield
and Branson where local terrain will come into play. There is also
the potential for LIFR around sunrise. Flight conditions will
then improve to VFR by late Monday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 180557
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Cold front has shifted to along the Missouri/Arkansas border early
this afternoon. Convection has just initiated along and ahead of
the boundary in far northern Arkansas into the bootheel region of
Missouri. At this point, planning on maintaining low end isolated
thunderstorm chances for far southern Missouri this
afternoon/evening to account for the vicinity of the front and
higher instability right along the border. Main convective
activity however will be further southeast in association with the
front and upper level disturbance over the Tennessee valley region.

Sun has helped to burn off the clouds in the southwest half of the
CWA today, but remain in the northeast and have kept temperatures
down there.

Will have another low end chance of convection in the Monday night
to Tuesday time frame, but overall rain chances through the entire
period look to be on the low side. Our main focus for the upcoming
7 day period will be with increased temperatures and humidity as
an upper level ridge begins to build over the lower and mid
Mississippi valley region by mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Frontal boundary will be along the Missouri Arkansas border this
afternoon/evening and with increased instability along the front,
will maintain isolated thunderstorms across far southern Missouri
into the mid evening hours.

Shortwave energy will pass to the south of the area on Monday with
a stronger shortwave across the upper Mississippi valley region
leaving our CWA in between systems and generally dry throughout
the day. Daytime temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the
eastern Ozarks to the mid 90s over far southwest Missouri into
extreme southeast Kansas with heat index values from the upper 90s
to around 101 possible there.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Another weak front and upper level energy will move into the area
late Monday night into Tuesday, however the bulk of the upper
level energy will remain north of our area and only carrying low
end pops with this feature for now.

After that, we will begin to see height rises as an upper level
ridge begins to build over the lower into mid Mississippi valley
area which will likely keep the storm track to our north and see
temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for mid week
into next weekend. Heat index values will likely be from the upper
90s to around 104 through that period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Low clouds and fog are expected to develop from late tonight into
early Monday morning across portions of southern Missouri. The
greatest chances for multiple hours of IFR will be at Springfield
and Branson where local terrain will come into play. There is also
the potential for LIFR around sunrise. Flight conditions will
then improve to VFR by late Monday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 180557
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Cold front has shifted to along the Missouri/Arkansas border early
this afternoon. Convection has just initiated along and ahead of
the boundary in far northern Arkansas into the bootheel region of
Missouri. At this point, planning on maintaining low end isolated
thunderstorm chances for far southern Missouri this
afternoon/evening to account for the vicinity of the front and
higher instability right along the border. Main convective
activity however will be further southeast in association with the
front and upper level disturbance over the Tennessee valley region.

Sun has helped to burn off the clouds in the southwest half of the
CWA today, but remain in the northeast and have kept temperatures
down there.

Will have another low end chance of convection in the Monday night
to Tuesday time frame, but overall rain chances through the entire
period look to be on the low side. Our main focus for the upcoming
7 day period will be with increased temperatures and humidity as
an upper level ridge begins to build over the lower and mid
Mississippi valley region by mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Frontal boundary will be along the Missouri Arkansas border this
afternoon/evening and with increased instability along the front,
will maintain isolated thunderstorms across far southern Missouri
into the mid evening hours.

Shortwave energy will pass to the south of the area on Monday with
a stronger shortwave across the upper Mississippi valley region
leaving our CWA in between systems and generally dry throughout
the day. Daytime temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the
eastern Ozarks to the mid 90s over far southwest Missouri into
extreme southeast Kansas with heat index values from the upper 90s
to around 101 possible there.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Another weak front and upper level energy will move into the area
late Monday night into Tuesday, however the bulk of the upper
level energy will remain north of our area and only carrying low
end pops with this feature for now.

After that, we will begin to see height rises as an upper level
ridge begins to build over the lower into mid Mississippi valley
area which will likely keep the storm track to our north and see
temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for mid week
into next weekend. Heat index values will likely be from the upper
90s to around 104 through that period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Low clouds and fog are expected to develop from late tonight into
early Monday morning across portions of southern Missouri. The
greatest chances for multiple hours of IFR will be at Springfield
and Branson where local terrain will come into play. There is also
the potential for LIFR around sunrise. Flight conditions will
then improve to VFR by late Monday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 180516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For tonight a trough moving through the Northern Plains into the
upper Midwest will set the stage for thunderstorms to develop well
northwest of the CWA. I left the inherited low chance pops in for
tonight as several of the higher res models depict a decaying storm
complex to move in out of Nebraska into our far northwest and north
central zones near and after midnight tonight. Not expecting
anything severe with the activity for our CWA. Otherwise most of the
CWA should see skies slowly clear with calm winds. Patchy fog may
form again very late tonight for areas that do clear out for a period
of time before sunrise.

Tomorrow will see the return of warm to what will be hot temperatures
by mid-week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region behind
the departing upper Midwest trough. There may be several isolated to
scattered showers of storms as we start the morning mainly well north
of I-70 with continued low chances through tomorrow night.
After Monday each day will become increasingly warmer with the
possibility of isolated showers and storms. Heat indices should reach
the upper 90s to low 100s Wednesday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Convective complex from southeast NE through central KS is finally
weakening as the KS portion start to drop south. Weakening showers
likely over northeast KS but may barely reach far northwest MO and
west central MO before dissipating. Associated outflow boundary is
slowing its eastward push but cold still pass through the terminals
by 08z with winds briefly shift to the west and increase.

The convective cloud debris will overspread western MO and greatly
diminish the fog threat at all 3 terminals. Areas of fog over
northeast and central MO could become more dense overnight with
visibilities less than a mile.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ








000
FXUS63 KEAX 180516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For tonight a trough moving through the Northern Plains into the
upper Midwest will set the stage for thunderstorms to develop well
northwest of the CWA. I left the inherited low chance pops in for
tonight as several of the higher res models depict a decaying storm
complex to move in out of Nebraska into our far northwest and north
central zones near and after midnight tonight. Not expecting
anything severe with the activity for our CWA. Otherwise most of the
CWA should see skies slowly clear with calm winds. Patchy fog may
form again very late tonight for areas that do clear out for a period
of time before sunrise.

Tomorrow will see the return of warm to what will be hot temperatures
by mid-week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region behind
the departing upper Midwest trough. There may be several isolated to
scattered showers of storms as we start the morning mainly well north
of I-70 with continued low chances through tomorrow night.
After Monday each day will become increasingly warmer with the
possibility of isolated showers and storms. Heat indices should reach
the upper 90s to low 100s Wednesday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Convective complex from southeast NE through central KS is finally
weakening as the KS portion start to drop south. Weakening showers
likely over northeast KS but may barely reach far northwest MO and
west central MO before dissipating. Associated outflow boundary is
slowing its eastward push but cold still pass through the terminals
by 08z with winds briefly shift to the west and increase.

The convective cloud debris will overspread western MO and greatly
diminish the fog threat at all 3 terminals. Areas of fog over
northeast and central MO could become more dense overnight with
visibilities less than a mile.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ







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