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000
FXUS63 KLSX 181814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1214 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Snowfall lingering over the region late this morning should
continue to wind down heading into the afternoon. I`ve continued
some mention of drizzle...primarily in the deeper low level
moisture on the Missouri side of the Mississippi River.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Snowfall should continue to diminish across the area heading into
the afternoon, with a corresponding loss of visibility
restrictions as the snowfall ebbs. Bigger question is likely to
be ceiling trends. Low level moisture has IFR stratus locked
across the southern half of MO; however, surface ridge extending
from upper MSVLY to lower Ohio Valley appears to be keeping some
dry low level air locked over eastern sections of our CWA. This
appears to be keeping the stratus locked in place, and any
lowering of ceilings in this drier air has been associated with
pockets of heavier snow...fairly brief and rather spotty in nature.
Have attempted to reflect this by keeping ceilings from STL to UIN
in the high end MVFR range this afternon, while COU should remain
locked in IFR stratus. With time heading into the evening,
anticipate that IFR stratus and fog will attempt to form aong this
STL-UIN line, while the existing stratus deck over mid MO will
lower and head into LIFR range.

Specifics for KSTL: As suggested by primary AFD, STL area appears
to be on the e fringes of much more significant low level
moisture, and cloud/ceiling trends will likely be very tricky as a
result. For now have gone with high end MVFR cigs for the
afternoon as the snowfall gradually comes to a end, with ceilings
and visibilities lowering tonight as boundary layer cools and
heads into the IFR cat after 06z.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 181814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1214 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Snowfall lingering over the region late this morning should
continue to wind down heading into the afternoon. I`ve continued
some mention of drizzle...primarily in the deeper low level
moisture on the Missouri side of the Mississippi River.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Snowfall should continue to diminish across the area heading into
the afternoon, with a corresponding loss of visibility
restrictions as the snowfall ebbs. Bigger question is likely to
be ceiling trends. Low level moisture has IFR stratus locked
across the southern half of MO; however, surface ridge extending
from upper MSVLY to lower Ohio Valley appears to be keeping some
dry low level air locked over eastern sections of our CWA. This
appears to be keeping the stratus locked in place, and any
lowering of ceilings in this drier air has been associated with
pockets of heavier snow...fairly brief and rather spotty in nature.
Have attempted to reflect this by keeping ceilings from STL to UIN
in the high end MVFR range this afternon, while COU should remain
locked in IFR stratus. With time heading into the evening,
anticipate that IFR stratus and fog will attempt to form aong this
STL-UIN line, while the existing stratus deck over mid MO will
lower and head into LIFR range.

Specifics for KSTL: As suggested by primary AFD, STL area appears
to be on the e fringes of much more significant low level
moisture, and cloud/ceiling trends will likely be very tricky as a
result. For now have gone with high end MVFR cigs for the
afternoon as the snowfall gradually comes to a end, with ceilings
and visibilities lowering tonight as boundary layer cools and
heads into the IFR cat after 06z.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 181814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1214 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Snowfall lingering over the region late this morning should
continue to wind down heading into the afternoon. I`ve continued
some mention of drizzle...primarily in the deeper low level
moisture on the Missouri side of the Mississippi River.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Snowfall should continue to diminish across the area heading into
the afternoon, with a corresponding loss of visibility
restrictions as the snowfall ebbs. Bigger question is likely to
be ceiling trends. Low level moisture has IFR stratus locked
across the southern half of MO; however, surface ridge extending
from upper MSVLY to lower Ohio Valley appears to be keeping some
dry low level air locked over eastern sections of our CWA. This
appears to be keeping the stratus locked in place, and any
lowering of ceilings in this drier air has been associated with
pockets of heavier snow...fairly brief and rather spotty in nature.
Have attempted to reflect this by keeping ceilings from STL to UIN
in the high end MVFR range this afternon, while COU should remain
locked in IFR stratus. With time heading into the evening,
anticipate that IFR stratus and fog will attempt to form aong this
STL-UIN line, while the existing stratus deck over mid MO will
lower and head into LIFR range.

Specifics for KSTL: As suggested by primary AFD, STL area appears
to be on the e fringes of much more significant low level
moisture, and cloud/ceiling trends will likely be very tricky as a
result. For now have gone with high end MVFR cigs for the
afternoon as the snowfall gradually comes to a end, with ceilings
and visibilities lowering tonight as boundary layer cools and
heads into the IFR cat after 06z.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 181814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1214 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Snowfall lingering over the region late this morning should
continue to wind down heading into the afternoon. I`ve continued
some mention of drizzle...primarily in the deeper low level
moisture on the Missouri side of the Mississippi River.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Snowfall should continue to diminish across the area heading into
the afternoon, with a corresponding loss of visibility
restrictions as the snowfall ebbs. Bigger question is likely to
be ceiling trends. Low level moisture has IFR stratus locked
across the southern half of MO; however, surface ridge extending
from upper MSVLY to lower Ohio Valley appears to be keeping some
dry low level air locked over eastern sections of our CWA. This
appears to be keeping the stratus locked in place, and any
lowering of ceilings in this drier air has been associated with
pockets of heavier snow...fairly brief and rather spotty in nature.
Have attempted to reflect this by keeping ceilings from STL to UIN
in the high end MVFR range this afternon, while COU should remain
locked in IFR stratus. With time heading into the evening,
anticipate that IFR stratus and fog will attempt to form aong this
STL-UIN line, while the existing stratus deck over mid MO will
lower and head into LIFR range.

Specifics for KSTL: As suggested by primary AFD, STL area appears
to be on the e fringes of much more significant low level
moisture, and cloud/ceiling trends will likely be very tricky as a
result. For now have gone with high end MVFR cigs for the
afternoon as the snowfall gradually comes to a end, with ceilings
and visibilities lowering tonight as boundary layer cools and
heads into the IFR cat after 06z.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 181731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to MVFR ceilings/vis should transition to prevailing MVFR
conditions later this afternoon. Observations have gradually risen a
couple hundred feet over the past few hours across the region. The
back edge of light snow, flurries is nearing terminals currently,
and do not expect any additional precipitation impacting conditions.
Challenging forecast tonight with regards to IFR potential and
timing, persistence. Models are quite aggressive on lowering
ceilings, but not as aggressive on bringing down visibility.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Blair






000
FXUS63 KEAX 181731
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR to MVFR ceilings/vis should transition to prevailing MVFR
conditions later this afternoon. Observations have gradually risen a
couple hundred feet over the past few hours across the region. The
back edge of light snow, flurries is nearing terminals currently,
and do not expect any additional precipitation impacting conditions.
Challenging forecast tonight with regards to IFR potential and
timing, persistence. Models are quite aggressive on lowering
ceilings, but not as aggressive on bringing down visibility.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Blair






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 181702
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1102 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to Aviation and Short Term Forecast for Fog Potential...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The prospects appear favorable for fog development (possibly
dense) tonight and early Friday morning. The lower atmosphere
will be saturated with little in the way of wind. All forms of MOS
guidance, raw model visibility output, and the SREF also point in
the direction of fog. We will therefore be inserting fog into the
forecast along with the Hazardous Weather Outlook. A Dense Fog
Advisory may be required for portions of the area at some point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR and LIFR conditions will continue through Friday morning.
Flight restrictions will initially be due to low ceilings, however
confidence is then high that fog will develop tonight and persist
into Friday morning. Confidence in dense fog and LIFR visibilities
is moderate (but increasing) at this point. Winds will remain
light and variable through Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181702
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1102 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to Aviation and Short Term Forecast for Fog Potential...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The prospects appear favorable for fog development (possibly
dense) tonight and early Friday morning. The lower atmosphere
will be saturated with little in the way of wind. All forms of MOS
guidance, raw model visibility output, and the SREF also point in
the direction of fog. We will therefore be inserting fog into the
forecast along with the Hazardous Weather Outlook. A Dense Fog
Advisory may be required for portions of the area at some point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1054 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR and LIFR conditions will continue through Friday morning.
Flight restrictions will initially be due to low ceilings, however
confidence is then high that fog will develop tonight and persist
into Friday morning. Confidence in dense fog and LIFR visibilities
is moderate (but increasing) at this point. Winds will remain
light and variable through Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KLSX 181514
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 910 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

In the process of tweaking forecast based on latest snowfall obs.
Overall, snowfall should be winding down over the next few hours,
with greatest additional accumulation from mid MO into central IL.
Think additional accumulation in this band should be less than
1/2" since melting seems to be offsetting some of the
accumulation, but echo is a bit convective looking, so isolated
additional snows of an inch certainly not out of the question.

Will drop advisory for our far s counties, since most of the
snowfall the rest of this morning will be north of these areas.
Elsewhere headline remains the same. No expansion planned, since the
region has experienced the most adverse conditions from a travel
point of view.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Fun today will be chasing ceilings and visibilities. Weather
system will lift northeast fairly quickly so any snow that greatly
reduces visibilities should end by Midday or shortly after.
ceilings are mainly dropping to mvfr with some ifr showing up in
places. Guidance really brings in fog and ifr by 12 Thursday.
Moist atnmosphere with light winds so can`t argue with that.

Specifics for KSTL: Will likely amend shortly as it looks like the
visibiity will be dropping quicker then previously thought. A
couple of hours of 2-3sm sn looks likely, then up to 5 or more
the rest of the. Best lift drops off dramatically after 18z so
don`t expect much this afternoon, except for some fog and mvfr.
Ifr ceilings expected by 12z Thursday with fog.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO-
     Osage MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 181514
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 910 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

In the process of tweaking forecast based on latest snowfall obs.
Overall, snowfall should be winding down over the next few hours,
with greatest additional accumulation from mid MO into central IL.
Think additional accumulation in this band should be less than
1/2" since melting seems to be offsetting some of the
accumulation, but echo is a bit convective looking, so isolated
additional snows of an inch certainly not out of the question.

Will drop advisory for our far s counties, since most of the
snowfall the rest of this morning will be north of these areas.
Elsewhere headline remains the same. No expansion planned, since the
region has experienced the most adverse conditions from a travel
point of view.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Fun today will be chasing ceilings and visibilities. Weather
system will lift northeast fairly quickly so any snow that greatly
reduces visibilities should end by Midday or shortly after.
ceilings are mainly dropping to mvfr with some ifr showing up in
places. Guidance really brings in fog and ifr by 12 Thursday.
Moist atnmosphere with light winds so can`t argue with that.

Specifics for KSTL: Will likely amend shortly as it looks like the
visibiity will be dropping quicker then previously thought. A
couple of hours of 2-3sm sn looks likely, then up to 5 or more
the rest of the. Best lift drops off dramatically after 18z so
don`t expect much this afternoon, except for some fog and mvfr.
Ifr ceilings expected by 12z Thursday with fog.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO-
     Osage MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 181514
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 910 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

In the process of tweaking forecast based on latest snowfall obs.
Overall, snowfall should be winding down over the next few hours,
with greatest additional accumulation from mid MO into central IL.
Think additional accumulation in this band should be less than
1/2" since melting seems to be offsetting some of the
accumulation, but echo is a bit convective looking, so isolated
additional snows of an inch certainly not out of the question.

Will drop advisory for our far s counties, since most of the
snowfall the rest of this morning will be north of these areas.
Elsewhere headline remains the same. No expansion planned, since the
region has experienced the most adverse conditions from a travel
point of view.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Fun today will be chasing ceilings and visibilities. Weather
system will lift northeast fairly quickly so any snow that greatly
reduces visibilities should end by Midday or shortly after.
ceilings are mainly dropping to mvfr with some ifr showing up in
places. Guidance really brings in fog and ifr by 12 Thursday.
Moist atnmosphere with light winds so can`t argue with that.

Specifics for KSTL: Will likely amend shortly as it looks like the
visibiity will be dropping quicker then previously thought. A
couple of hours of 2-3sm sn looks likely, then up to 5 or more
the rest of the. Best lift drops off dramatically after 18z so
don`t expect much this afternoon, except for some fog and mvfr.
Ifr ceilings expected by 12z Thursday with fog.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO-
     Osage MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 181514
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 910 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

In the process of tweaking forecast based on latest snowfall obs.
Overall, snowfall should be winding down over the next few hours,
with greatest additional accumulation from mid MO into central IL.
Think additional accumulation in this band should be less than
1/2" since melting seems to be offsetting some of the
accumulation, but echo is a bit convective looking, so isolated
additional snows of an inch certainly not out of the question.

Will drop advisory for our far s counties, since most of the
snowfall the rest of this morning will be north of these areas.
Elsewhere headline remains the same. No expansion planned, since the
region has experienced the most adverse conditions from a travel
point of view.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Fun today will be chasing ceilings and visibilities. Weather
system will lift northeast fairly quickly so any snow that greatly
reduces visibilities should end by Midday or shortly after.
ceilings are mainly dropping to mvfr with some ifr showing up in
places. Guidance really brings in fog and ifr by 12 Thursday.
Moist atnmosphere with light winds so can`t argue with that.

Specifics for KSTL: Will likely amend shortly as it looks like the
visibiity will be dropping quicker then previously thought. A
couple of hours of 2-3sm sn looks likely, then up to 5 or more
the rest of the. Best lift drops off dramatically after 18z so
don`t expect much this afternoon, except for some fog and mvfr.
Ifr ceilings expected by 12z Thursday with fog.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO-
     Osage MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181229
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Pilots can expect IFR conditions today through tonight.

Light fog and areas of drizzle will reduce the visibility. Some
patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled this morning with some
very light snow possible at the Springfield terminal.

Otherwise IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KSGF 181229
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Pilots can expect IFR conditions today through tonight.

Light fog and areas of drizzle will reduce the visibility. Some
patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled this morning with some
very light snow possible at the Springfield terminal.

Otherwise IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Foster






000
FXUS63 KSGF 181229
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Pilots can expect IFR conditions today through tonight.

Light fog and areas of drizzle will reduce the visibility. Some
patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled this morning with some
very light snow possible at the Springfield terminal.

Otherwise IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Foster







000
FXUS63 KEAX 181204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Light snow moving through the area early this morning, and will move
completely out by the mid morning hours. There could be a period of
very light snow and perhaps some freezing drizzle through the noon
time period, but the chance for freezing drizzle is pretty low. There
could be a period of CIG/VIS improvement this afternoon, but
forecast soundings and guidance suggests IFR/LIFR conditions
overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 181204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Light snow moving through the area early this morning, and will move
completely out by the mid morning hours. There could be a period of
very light snow and perhaps some freezing drizzle through the noon
time period, but the chance for freezing drizzle is pretty low. There
could be a period of CIG/VIS improvement this afternoon, but
forecast soundings and guidance suggests IFR/LIFR conditions
overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 181204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Light snow moving through the area early this morning, and will move
completely out by the mid morning hours. There could be a period of
very light snow and perhaps some freezing drizzle through the noon
time period, but the chance for freezing drizzle is pretty low. There
could be a period of CIG/VIS improvement this afternoon, but
forecast soundings and guidance suggests IFR/LIFR conditions
overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KLSX 181158
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Fun today will be chasing ceilings and visibilities. Weather
system will lift northeast fairly quickly so any snow that greatly
reduces visibilities should end by Midday or shortly after.
ceilings are mainly dropping to mvfr with some ifr showing up in
places. Guidance really brings in fog and ifr by 12 Thursday.
Moist atnmosphere with light winds so can`t argue with that.

Specifics for KSTL: Will likely amend shortly as it looks like the
visibiity will be dropping quicker then previously thought. A
couple of hours of 2-3sm sn looks likely, then up to 5 or more
the rest of the. Best lift drops off dramatically after 18z so
don`t expect much this afternoon, except for some fog and mvfr.
Ifr ceilings expected by 12z Thursday with fog.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     36  28  37  29 /  80   5   5  10
Quincy          33  25  33  27 /  80   5   5   5
Columbia        36  30  37  30 /  80  10   5  10
Jefferson City  37  29  38  31 /  70  10  10  10
Salem           36  27  37  26 /  40   5   5  20
Farmington      36  28  37  26 /  70  10   5  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 181158
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Fun today will be chasing ceilings and visibilities. Weather
system will lift northeast fairly quickly so any snow that greatly
reduces visibilities should end by Midday or shortly after.
ceilings are mainly dropping to mvfr with some ifr showing up in
places. Guidance really brings in fog and ifr by 12 Thursday.
Moist atnmosphere with light winds so can`t argue with that.

Specifics for KSTL: Will likely amend shortly as it looks like the
visibiity will be dropping quicker then previously thought. A
couple of hours of 2-3sm sn looks likely, then up to 5 or more
the rest of the. Best lift drops off dramatically after 18z so
don`t expect much this afternoon, except for some fog and mvfr.
Ifr ceilings expected by 12z Thursday with fog.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     36  28  37  29 /  80   5   5  10
Quincy          33  25  33  27 /  80   5   5   5
Columbia        36  30  37  30 /  80  10   5  10
Jefferson City  37  29  38  31 /  70  10  10  10
Salem           36  27  37  26 /  40   5   5  20
Farmington      36  28  37  26 /  70  10   5  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 181158
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Fun today will be chasing ceilings and visibilities. Weather
system will lift northeast fairly quickly so any snow that greatly
reduces visibilities should end by Midday or shortly after.
ceilings are mainly dropping to mvfr with some ifr showing up in
places. Guidance really brings in fog and ifr by 12 Thursday.
Moist atnmosphere with light winds so can`t argue with that.

Specifics for KSTL: Will likely amend shortly as it looks like the
visibiity will be dropping quicker then previously thought. A
couple of hours of 2-3sm sn looks likely, then up to 5 or more
the rest of the. Best lift drops off dramatically after 18z so
don`t expect much this afternoon, except for some fog and mvfr.
Ifr ceilings expected by 12z Thursday with fog.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     36  28  37  29 /  80   5   5  10
Quincy          33  25  33  27 /  80   5   5   5
Columbia        36  30  37  30 /  80  10   5  10
Jefferson City  37  29  38  31 /  70  10  10  10
Salem           36  27  37  26 /  40   5   5  20
Farmington      36  28  37  26 /  70  10   5  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 181158
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Fun today will be chasing ceilings and visibilities. Weather
system will lift northeast fairly quickly so any snow that greatly
reduces visibilities should end by Midday or shortly after.
ceilings are mainly dropping to mvfr with some ifr showing up in
places. Guidance really brings in fog and ifr by 12 Thursday.
Moist atnmosphere with light winds so can`t argue with that.

Specifics for KSTL: Will likely amend shortly as it looks like the
visibiity will be dropping quicker then previously thought. A
couple of hours of 2-3sm sn looks likely, then up to 5 or more
the rest of the. Best lift drops off dramatically after 18z so
don`t expect much this afternoon, except for some fog and mvfr.
Ifr ceilings expected by 12z Thursday with fog.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     36  28  37  29 /  80   5   5  10
Quincy          33  25  33  27 /  80   5   5   5
Columbia        36  30  37  30 /  80  10   5  10
Jefferson City  37  29  38  31 /  70  10  10  10
Salem           36  27  37  26 /  40   5   5  20
Farmington      36  28  37  26 /  70  10   5  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 181005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Snow is currently impacting, or will impact the terminals in the next
hour. Main edge of snow currently along a line from KFNB
southeastward to KJEF and is slowly spreading northeast. Main issue for the
prevailing TAF period is periods of reduced visibility as heavier
bands move across the terminals. Visibility has been falling to LIFR
with these bands. Snow will begin to wind down between a 15-17Z
period. As main area of lift moves out of the region, snow will come
to an end but there is a slight chance for some patchy freezing
drizzle to develop given saturated lower levels.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 181005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE
Missouri.

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Snow is currently impacting, or will impact the terminals in the next
hour. Main edge of snow currently along a line from KFNB
southeastward to KJEF and is slowly spreading northeast. Main issue for the
prevailing TAF period is periods of reduced visibility as heavier
bands move across the terminals. Visibility has been falling to LIFR
with these bands. Snow will begin to wind down between a 15-17Z
period. As main area of lift moves out of the region, snow will come
to an end but there is a slight chance for some patchy freezing
drizzle to develop given saturated lower levels.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-
     011>016-020>025-032-033-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KLSX 180951
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Snow will move KCOU in the next 1-2 hours and into the St. Louis
metro area TAFs between 9-12Z. Still appears that conditions will
drop to IFR or low MVFR within 1-3 hours after the onset of the
snow. KUIN will see the onset of snow around 12Z. Accumulations of
snow is still expected to be around 1 inch at KCOU and less at
KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites. The snow will switch over
to drizzle during the afternoon before ending by late in the
afternoon. IFR or low MVFR ceilings are expected through the end
of the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Snow is expected to move into the terminal
after 09Z with VFR conditions initially given dry air in the
atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is expected by 14Z with
an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow should switch over
to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting through the rest of
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     36  28  37  29 /  80   5   5  10
Quincy          33  25  33  27 /  80   5   5   5
Columbia        36  30  37  30 /  80  10   5  10
Jefferson City  37  29  38  31 /  70  10  10  10
Salem           36  27  37  26 /  40   5   5  20
Farmington      36  28  37  26 /  70  10   5  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 180951
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Relatively quiet weather will prevail over the area for the rest of
the week with a large surface ridge extending from southern Canada
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region down into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Another wave will ripple through in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft Friday night.  The lower atmosphere looks too
dry to allow any precip to reach the ground from this wave...all
except for southern portions of the area.  Have kept chance/slight
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois with
little or no qpf associated with them.

Saturday and Sunday look warmer with southwest flow deepening ahead
of the next trof with temperatures rising to around normal on
Saturday and above normal on Sunday.  Medium range guidance looks to
be in good agreement that the trof will deepen across the Central
U.S. Monday into Wednesday.  This should bring us another period of
cloudy and occasionally rainy weather with the best probabilities of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.  The atmosphere will likely
be too warm for much frozen precipitation until possibly Tuesday or
Tuesday night.  QPF looks pretty light on the GFS and ECMWF by the
time the atmosphere is cold enough to snow, but there may be a few
periods of flurries or light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Snow will move KCOU in the next 1-2 hours and into the St. Louis
metro area TAFs between 9-12Z. Still appears that conditions will
drop to IFR or low MVFR within 1-3 hours after the onset of the
snow. KUIN will see the onset of snow around 12Z. Accumulations of
snow is still expected to be around 1 inch at KCOU and less at
KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites. The snow will switch over
to drizzle during the afternoon before ending by late in the
afternoon. IFR or low MVFR ceilings are expected through the end
of the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Snow is expected to move into the terminal
after 09Z with VFR conditions initially given dry air in the
atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is expected by 14Z with
an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow should switch over
to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting through the rest of
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     36  28  37  29 /  80   5   5  10
Quincy          33  25  33  27 /  80   5   5   5
Columbia        36  30  37  30 /  80  10   5  10
Jefferson City  37  29  38  31 /  70  10  10  10
Salem           36  27  37  26 /  40   5   5  20
Farmington      36  28  37  26 /  70  10   5  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 180924
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

Vigorous little shortwave over northern Kansas is producing a broad
area of snow over parts of north central Missouri back toward west
central Missouri.  The going forecast looks pretty good in general;
however current radar and latest short range model guidance suggests
that there will be more precipitation across parts of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois than previously forecast.  Low to
mid level frontogenesis and isentropic lift will increase through
15Z as the wave passes north of the area.  The shortwave should be
dampening out as it moves into an area of longwave ridging, so
precipitation should be on the decline through the morning, and
there is still a wedge of low level dry air to overcome, but
measurable precip does look likely across most of the area.
Accumulations still look pretty light with most areas receiving an
inch or less except for parts of central and southeast Missouri
where an inch or two of wet snow is likely to accumulate.  With
temperatures hovering right around freezing, expect some slick spots
on any untreated roads this morning, but temperatures should be
rising above freezing in most locations by mid to late morning so
that should alleviate any road issues.  Additionally, expect precip
to be winding down pretty rapidly after 15Z as the shortwave dampens
out and the primary band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift
weakens.  The one place where there may be lingering problems is
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where temperatures may
struggle to break freezing this afternoon.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Snow will move KCOU in the next 1-2 hours and into the St. Louis
metro area TAFs between 9-12Z. Still appears that conditions will
drop to IFR or low MVFR within 1-3 hours after the onset of the
snow. KUIN will see the onset of snow around 12Z. Accumulations of
snow is still expected to be around 1 inch at KCOU and less at
KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites. The snow will switch over
to drizzle during the afternoon before ending by late in the
afternoon. IFR or low MVFR ceilings are expected through the end
of the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Snow is expected to move into the terminal
after 09Z with VFR conditions initially given dry air in the
atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is expected by 14Z with
an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow should switch over
to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting through the rest of
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     36  28  37  29 /  80   5   5  10
Quincy          33  25  33  27 /  80   5   5   5
Columbia        36  30  37  30 /  80  10   5  10
Jefferson City  37  29  38  31 /  70  10  10  10
Salem           36  27  37  26 /  40   5   5  20
Farmington      36  28  37  26 /  70  10   5  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 180923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light Wintry Precipitation Continues this Morning...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA










000
FXUS63 KSGF 180923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light Wintry Precipitation Continues this Morning...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA











000
FXUS63 KSGF 180923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light Wintry Precipitation Continues this Morning...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA










000
FXUS63 KSGF 180923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Light Wintry Precipitation Continues this Morning...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level shortwave trough that produced the wintry weather
across the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into early this morning, is
now located across central Kansas. A dry slot has spread over much
of the forecast area early this morning on the southeast side of
the trough. This dry air in the mid levels is resulting in the
loss of cloud ice which has brought an end to the snow and rain
for the time being.

Low level moisture remains high and lift from the system is
producing drizzle across the area early this morning.
Temperatures are generally hovering in the middle and lower 30s
and will not change much through the rest of the early morning
hours. Drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue this morning.
Temperatures again are generally hovering within a couple degrees
on both sides of freezing and will vary over short distances.
Locations that are below freezing will see the potential for a
light glaze of ice early this morning and could produce a few
additional slick spots that vary over short distances for the
morning commute, the best potential will be across central
Missouri will more locations will be below freezing.

As the trough continues to slide to the east this morning mid
level moisture will start to increase and cloud ice will return
and additional light rain or snow will be possible. This additional
precipitation is currently across central Kansas and will spread
east and mainly affect areas along and north of a Pittsburg Kansas
to Bolivar to Salem Missouri line this morning, generally between
6AM and Noon before it tapers off from west to east.  There could
be an additional dusting of snow mainly for locations long and
north of Highway 54 this morning with this activity. Due to this
potential and still some slushy spots on area roadways will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning.

Cloudy conditions will remain over the area today and will limit
warming with highs just topping out in the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon. This will still be enough to help melt the wintry
precipitation that remains on area roadways.

This afternoon will mainly be dry as the upper level trough slides
off to the east and the area is on the back side of it. A dry air
mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will overspread the
region tonight, but low level moisture and cloud cover will remain
over the area tonight. This will limit lows from dropping off to
much will lows in the lower to middle 30s expected.

Another upper level trough will begin pushing into the plains
tonight and might produce enough lift to result in some drizzle
again tonight. Do not think it will be as widespread or as heavy
as it is this morning. A few locations will likely drop below
freezing again tonight, and could result in some patchy freezing
drizzle, but at this time do not think it will be heavy enough to
produce widespread impacts as the better lift remains west of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper level trough will continue to track across the plains on
Friday and into and through the region Friday night into Saturday.
A fairly dry air mass will be in place across the area ahead of
this system and moisture return does not appear to be as good as
it was with the system that is currently affecting the area. Also
the better lift will remain south of the area across the Gulf
Coast states where the trough axis tracks. Models continue to trend
south with this system keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
the south of the area. There could still be some light wrap
around sprinkles or flurries on the back side of this system
clipping south central Missouri, but no accumulations are now
expected this far north across any of the area.

A warming trend will then occur Sunday into Monday as highs warm
into the middle 40s to around the 50 degree mark. An upper level low
will then track through the region Sunday night into early next
week. With the warmer temperatures spreading into the area, all
rain will be possible as this system tracks through the area
Sunday night into Tuesday.

A colder air mass will spread into the area during the middle of
next week behind this system. The medium range models do show the
potential for some wrap around precipitation spreading into the
area from the northeast on the back side of the upper level low
Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time the system should be
far enough to the north and east to keep this very light with
mainly sprinkles or flurries possible if anything this far south
and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA











000
FXUS63 KLSX 180556
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 837 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Radar echoes approaching the southwestern portion of our forecast
area this evening from southwestern MO. The weak reflectivities in
our forecast area are not likely making it to the ground due to
the dry layer around 900 mb in height. As the forcing increases
over our area ahead of the main shortwave now extending from
southeast CO southeast through the TX panhandle and upper level
divergence increases between the approaching upper level jet
streak over the southern Plains and the stronger upper level jet
streak over the OH Valley region, the lower levels will saturate
allowing the precipitation to reach the ground. The precipitation
may initially be a mix of snow and sleet across southeast MO, but
should quickly transition to all snow due to evaporate and
nocturnal cooling. The latest NAM model is a little slower with
the onset of the precipitation with the precipitation not making
it to COU or FAM until shortly after midnight, and not getting into
the St Louis metro area until almost 6 AM.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Snow will move KCOU in the next 1-2 hours and into the St. Louis
metro area TAFs between 9-12Z. Still appears that conditions will
drop to IFR or low MVFR within 1-3 hours after the onset of the
snow. KUIN will see the onset of snow around 12Z. Accumulations of
snow is still expected to be around 1 inch at KCOU and less at
KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites. The snow will switch over
to drizzle during the afternoon before ending by late in the
afternoon. IFR or low MVFR ceilings are expected through the end
of the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Snow is expected to move into the terminal
after 09Z with VFR conditions initially given dry air in the
atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is expected by 14Z with
an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow should switch over
to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting through the rest of
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Thursday FOR Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 180556
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 837 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Radar echoes approaching the southwestern portion of our forecast
area this evening from southwestern MO. The weak reflectivities in
our forecast area are not likely making it to the ground due to
the dry layer around 900 mb in height. As the forcing increases
over our area ahead of the main shortwave now extending from
southeast CO southeast through the TX panhandle and upper level
divergence increases between the approaching upper level jet
streak over the southern Plains and the stronger upper level jet
streak over the OH Valley region, the lower levels will saturate
allowing the precipitation to reach the ground. The precipitation
may initially be a mix of snow and sleet across southeast MO, but
should quickly transition to all snow due to evaporate and
nocturnal cooling. The latest NAM model is a little slower with
the onset of the precipitation with the precipitation not making
it to COU or FAM until shortly after midnight, and not getting into
the St Louis metro area until almost 6 AM.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Snow will move KCOU in the next 1-2 hours and into the St. Louis
metro area TAFs between 9-12Z. Still appears that conditions will
drop to IFR or low MVFR within 1-3 hours after the onset of the
snow. KUIN will see the onset of snow around 12Z. Accumulations of
snow is still expected to be around 1 inch at KCOU and less at
KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites. The snow will switch over
to drizzle during the afternoon before ending by late in the
afternoon. IFR or low MVFR ceilings are expected through the end
of the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Snow is expected to move into the terminal
after 09Z with VFR conditions initially given dry air in the
atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is expected by 14Z with
an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow should switch over
to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting through the rest of
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Thursday FOR Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 180556
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 837 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Radar echoes approaching the southwestern portion of our forecast
area this evening from southwestern MO. The weak reflectivities in
our forecast area are not likely making it to the ground due to
the dry layer around 900 mb in height. As the forcing increases
over our area ahead of the main shortwave now extending from
southeast CO southeast through the TX panhandle and upper level
divergence increases between the approaching upper level jet
streak over the southern Plains and the stronger upper level jet
streak over the OH Valley region, the lower levels will saturate
allowing the precipitation to reach the ground. The precipitation
may initially be a mix of snow and sleet across southeast MO, but
should quickly transition to all snow due to evaporate and
nocturnal cooling. The latest NAM model is a little slower with
the onset of the precipitation with the precipitation not making
it to COU or FAM until shortly after midnight, and not getting into
the St Louis metro area until almost 6 AM.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Snow will move KCOU in the next 1-2 hours and into the St. Louis
metro area TAFs between 9-12Z. Still appears that conditions will
drop to IFR or low MVFR within 1-3 hours after the onset of the
snow. KUIN will see the onset of snow around 12Z. Accumulations of
snow is still expected to be around 1 inch at KCOU and less at
KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites. The snow will switch over
to drizzle during the afternoon before ending by late in the
afternoon. IFR or low MVFR ceilings are expected through the end
of the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Snow is expected to move into the terminal
after 09Z with VFR conditions initially given dry air in the
atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is expected by 14Z with
an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow should switch over
to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting through the rest of
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Thursday FOR Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 180556
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 837 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Radar echoes approaching the southwestern portion of our forecast
area this evening from southwestern MO. The weak reflectivities in
our forecast area are not likely making it to the ground due to
the dry layer around 900 mb in height. As the forcing increases
over our area ahead of the main shortwave now extending from
southeast CO southeast through the TX panhandle and upper level
divergence increases between the approaching upper level jet
streak over the southern Plains and the stronger upper level jet
streak over the OH Valley region, the lower levels will saturate
allowing the precipitation to reach the ground. The precipitation
may initially be a mix of snow and sleet across southeast MO, but
should quickly transition to all snow due to evaporate and
nocturnal cooling. The latest NAM model is a little slower with
the onset of the precipitation with the precipitation not making
it to COU or FAM until shortly after midnight, and not getting into
the St Louis metro area until almost 6 AM.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Snow will move KCOU in the next 1-2 hours and into the St. Louis
metro area TAFs between 9-12Z. Still appears that conditions will
drop to IFR or low MVFR within 1-3 hours after the onset of the
snow. KUIN will see the onset of snow around 12Z. Accumulations of
snow is still expected to be around 1 inch at KCOU and less at
KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites. The snow will switch over
to drizzle during the afternoon before ending by late in the
afternoon. IFR or low MVFR ceilings are expected through the end
of the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Snow is expected to move into the terminal
after 09Z with VFR conditions initially given dry air in the
atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is expected by 14Z with
an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow should switch over
to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting through the rest of
the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Thursday FOR Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-
     Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KEAX 180552
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Snow is currently impacting, or will impact the terminals in the next
hour. Main edge of snow currently along a line from KFNB
southeastward to KJEF and is slowly spreading northeast. Main issue for the
prevailing TAF period is periods of reduced visibility as heavier
bands move across the terminals. Visibility has been falling to LIFR
with these bands. Snow will begin to wind down between a 15-17Z
period. As main area of lift moves out of the region, snow will come
to an end but there is a slight chance for some patchy freezing
drizzle to develop given saturated lower levels.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-
     020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 180552
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Snow is currently impacting, or will impact the terminals in the next
hour. Main edge of snow currently along a line from KFNB
southeastward to KJEF and is slowly spreading northeast. Main issue for the
prevailing TAF period is periods of reduced visibility as heavier
bands move across the terminals. Visibility has been falling to LIFR
with these bands. Snow will begin to wind down between a 15-17Z
period. As main area of lift moves out of the region, snow will come
to an end but there is a slight chance for some patchy freezing
drizzle to develop given saturated lower levels.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-
     020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KSGF 180528
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KSGF 180528
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KSGF 180528
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KSGF 180528
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Ceilings have been slow to lower even
with the precip with a disturbance moving through the area.
Progged soundings and SREF guidance drop ceilings into the IFR cat
fairly quickly, and keep it there for much of the taf period.
Temperatures are expected to be fairly steady near or just above
freezing. For now will go with all liquid, but some freezing
drizzle may be possible at times toward 12z. Temperatures will
warm after 15z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KLSX 180310
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
910 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 837 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Radar echoes approaching the southwestern portion of our forecast
area this evening from southwestern MO. The weak reflectivities in
our forecast area are not likely making it to the ground due to
the dry layer around 900 mb in height. As the forcing increases
over our area ahead of the main shortwave now extending from
southeast CO southeast through the TX panhandle and upper level
divergence increases between the approaching upper level jet
streak over the southern Plains and the stronger upper level jet
streak over the OH Valley region, the lower levels will saturate
allowing the precipitation to reach the ground. The precipitation
may intially be a mix of snow and sleet across southeast MO, but
should quickly transition to all snow due to evaporative and
nocturnal cooling. The latest NAM model is a little slower with
the onset of the precipitation with the precipitation not making
it to COU or FAM until shortly after midnight, and not getting into
the St Louis metro area until almost 6 AM.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Expect dry and VFR conditions through most of the this evening
before precipitation that is currently over southwest Missouri
moves into KCOU around 06Z in the form of snow. Dry air will
prevent snow from moving into the St. Louis area metro TAF sites
until around 12Z and KUIN around 15Z Thursday morning. VFR
conditions will drop to IFR conditions with in 2-3 hours of onset
of snow. Snow accumulations of around 1 inch is possible at KCOU
with less than an inch at the KSTL TAF sites and KUIN.
Accumulating snow is expected to end between 16-19Z...with light
drizzle and IFR or low MVFR ceilings persisting through the
afternoon hours. Winds will generally be light through the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR through at least 06Z. Then
snow chances will increase after 09Z with VFR conditions initially
given dry air in the atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is
expected by 14Z with an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow
should switch over to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting
through the rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 180310
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
910 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 837 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Radar echoes approaching the southwestern portion of our forecast
area this evening from southwestern MO. The weak reflectivities in
our forecast area are not likely making it to the ground due to
the dry layer around 900 mb in height. As the forcing increases
over our area ahead of the main shortwave now extending from
southeast CO southeast through the TX panhandle and upper level
divergence increases between the approaching upper level jet
streak over the southern Plains and the stronger upper level jet
streak over the OH Valley region, the lower levels will saturate
allowing the precipitation to reach the ground. The precipitation
may intially be a mix of snow and sleet across southeast MO, but
should quickly transition to all snow due to evaporative and
nocturnal cooling. The latest NAM model is a little slower with
the onset of the precipitation with the precipitation not making
it to COU or FAM until shortly after midnight, and not getting into
the St Louis metro area until almost 6 AM.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Expect dry and VFR conditions through most of the this evening
before precipitation that is currently over southwest Missouri
moves into KCOU around 06Z in the form of snow. Dry air will
prevent snow from moving into the St. Louis area metro TAF sites
until around 12Z and KUIN around 15Z Thursday morning. VFR
conditions will drop to IFR conditions with in 2-3 hours of onset
of snow. Snow accumulations of around 1 inch is possible at KCOU
with less than an inch at the KSTL TAF sites and KUIN.
Accumulating snow is expected to end between 16-19Z...with light
drizzle and IFR or low MVFR ceilings persisting through the
afternoon hours. Winds will generally be light through the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR through at least 06Z. Then
snow chances will increase after 09Z with VFR conditions initially
given dry air in the atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is
expected by 14Z with an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow
should switch over to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting
through the rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 180016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Expect dry and VFR conditions through most of the this evening
before precipitation that is currently over southwest Missouri
moves into KCOU around 06Z in the form of snow. Dry air will
prevent snow from moving into the St. Louis area metro TAF sites
until around 12Z and KUIN around 15Z Thursday morning. VFR
conditions will drop to IFR conditions with in 2-3 hours of onset
of snow. Snow accumulations of around 1 inch is possible at KCOU
with less than an inch at the KSTL TAF sites and KUIN.
Accumulating snow is expected to end between 16-19Z...with light
drizzle and IFR or low MVFR ceilings persisting through the
afternoon hours. Winds will generally be light through the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR through at least 06Z. Then
snow chances will increase after 09Z with VFR conditions initially
given dry air in the atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is
expected by 14Z with an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow
should switch over to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting
through the rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 180016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Expect dry and VFR conditions through most of the this evening
before precipitation that is currently over southwest Missouri
moves into KCOU around 06Z in the form of snow. Dry air will
prevent snow from moving into the St. Louis area metro TAF sites
until around 12Z and KUIN around 15Z Thursday morning. VFR
conditions will drop to IFR conditions with in 2-3 hours of onset
of snow. Snow accumulations of around 1 inch is possible at KCOU
with less than an inch at the KSTL TAF sites and KUIN.
Accumulating snow is expected to end between 16-19Z...with light
drizzle and IFR or low MVFR ceilings persisting through the
afternoon hours. Winds will generally be light through the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR through at least 06Z. Then
snow chances will increase after 09Z with VFR conditions initially
given dry air in the atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is
expected by 14Z with an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow
should switch over to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting
through the rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 180016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Expect dry and VFR conditions through most of the this evening
before precipitation that is currently over southwest Missouri
moves into KCOU around 06Z in the form of snow. Dry air will
prevent snow from moving into the St. Louis area metro TAF sites
until around 12Z and KUIN around 15Z Thursday morning. VFR
conditions will drop to IFR conditions with in 2-3 hours of onset
of snow. Snow accumulations of around 1 inch is possible at KCOU
with less than an inch at the KSTL TAF sites and KUIN.
Accumulating snow is expected to end between 16-19Z...with light
drizzle and IFR or low MVFR ceilings persisting through the
afternoon hours. Winds will generally be light through the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR through at least 06Z. Then
snow chances will increase after 09Z with VFR conditions initially
given dry air in the atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is
expected by 14Z with an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow
should switch over to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting
through the rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 180016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
616 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Expect dry and VFR conditions through most of the this evening
before precipitation that is currently over southwest Missouri
moves into KCOU around 06Z in the form of snow. Dry air will
prevent snow from moving into the St. Louis area metro TAF sites
until around 12Z and KUIN around 15Z Thursday morning. VFR
conditions will drop to IFR conditions with in 2-3 hours of onset
of snow. Snow accumulations of around 1 inch is possible at KCOU
with less than an inch at the KSTL TAF sites and KUIN.
Accumulating snow is expected to end between 16-19Z...with light
drizzle and IFR or low MVFR ceilings persisting through the
afternoon hours. Winds will generally be light through the period.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR through at least 06Z. Then
snow chances will increase after 09Z with VFR conditions initially
given dry air in the atmosphere. IFR conditions and steady snow is
expected by 14Z with an accumulation of less than 1 inch. The snow
should switch over to drizzle by 18Z with IFR ceilings lasting
through the rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 172349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with deteriorating flight conditions over the next 24
hours.

A storm system has arrived, and is currently producing a large
shield of light rain with embedded sleet. Ceilings will continue
to fall into the MVFR and IFR category this evening and tonight.

Visibilities will also fall in category as the rain becomes
heavier. There is a chance for some snow, although the predominate
precipitation type will likely be rain and drizzle.

The drizzle will become the heaviest tonight into Thursday morning
as we begin to lose cloud ice.

It appears as though drizzle and low cloud cover will continue
through most of Thursday`s day period.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer






000
FXUS63 KSGF 172349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with deteriorating flight conditions over the next 24
hours.

A storm system has arrived, and is currently producing a large
shield of light rain with embedded sleet. Ceilings will continue
to fall into the MVFR and IFR category this evening and tonight.

Visibilities will also fall in category as the rain becomes
heavier. There is a chance for some snow, although the predominate
precipitation type will likely be rain and drizzle.

The drizzle will become the heaviest tonight into Thursday morning
as we begin to lose cloud ice.

It appears as though drizzle and low cloud cover will continue
through most of Thursday`s day period.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer







000
FXUS63 KEAX 172347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern for the prevailing TAF period is snow working into the
region this evening and overnight. Currently, the line of
precipitation extends from KEMP southeastward to KUNO and will
continue to spread northeast towards Interstate 70 by 06Z. Ceilings
will gradually fall to MVFR and then IFR as this precip moves northward.
Light to moderate snow rates will decrease visibility overnight and
may see a period of visibility falling down to IFR and potentially
LIFR. Snow will gradually end late tomorrow morning with low MVFR
ceilings hanging around through the afternoon. There is the potential
for patchy freezing drizzle after the snow ends, but confidence is
low attm and any accumulation is expected to be light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 172347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern for the prevailing TAF period is snow working into the
region this evening and overnight. Currently, the line of
precipitation extends from KEMP southeastward to KUNO and will
continue to spread northeast towards Interstate 70 by 06Z. Ceilings
will gradually fall to MVFR and then IFR as this precip moves northward.
Light to moderate snow rates will decrease visibility overnight and
may see a period of visibility falling down to IFR and potentially
LIFR. Snow will gradually end late tomorrow morning with low MVFR
ceilings hanging around through the afternoon. There is the potential
for patchy freezing drizzle after the snow ends, but confidence is
low attm and any accumulation is expected to be light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 172347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern for the prevailing TAF period is snow working into the
region this evening and overnight. Currently, the line of
precipitation extends from KEMP southeastward to KUNO and will
continue to spread northeast towards Interstate 70 by 06Z. Ceilings
will gradually fall to MVFR and then IFR as this precip moves northward.
Light to moderate snow rates will decrease visibility overnight and
may see a period of visibility falling down to IFR and potentially
LIFR. Snow will gradually end late tomorrow morning with low MVFR
ceilings hanging around through the afternoon. There is the potential
for patchy freezing drizzle after the snow ends, but confidence is
low attm and any accumulation is expected to be light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 172347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
547 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern for the prevailing TAF period is snow working into the
region this evening and overnight. Currently, the line of
precipitation extends from KEMP southeastward to KUNO and will
continue to spread northeast towards Interstate 70 by 06Z. Ceilings
will gradually fall to MVFR and then IFR as this precip moves northward.
Light to moderate snow rates will decrease visibility overnight and
may see a period of visibility falling down to IFR and potentially
LIFR. Snow will gradually end late tomorrow morning with low MVFR
ceilings hanging around through the afternoon. There is the potential
for patchy freezing drizzle after the snow ends, but confidence is
low attm and any accumulation is expected to be light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-
     060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 172111
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KEAX 172111
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 172111
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

No major changes to the current forecast, which still calls for a
broad one to three inches of snow with the higher amounts near and
west of the KC metro. This is in response to a weak upper wave that
is currently producing quite a bit of precipitation across OK and
southern KS. This activity is more widespread than models had
predicted, an indication that moisture may be a bit more readily
available than previously thought. Assuming convection down there
doesn`t get too deep and rob our area of moisture, this should favor
at least an inch or two of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday
as the upper wave moves through. This wave will lose its definition
fairly quickly on Thursday, leading to a steady weakening of
precipitation as it spreads into north central and eastern Missouri
through the late morning and early afternoon. A slight loss of upper
level moisture on the back side of precipitation could favor some
patchy areas of freezing drizzle tomorrow, but without any good
source of low-level lift by this time, any ice accumulations would
be very minor if anything at all.

Several of today`s model runs have been hinting at a small band of
3" to 6" snows that could set up anywhere from the KC metro westward
into central or north central KS. This of course raises an eyebrow to
the possibility that our forecast amounts could be too low for some
areas. Upon closer inspection of these models, they seem to be
producing bands of frontogenesis on the north edge of lower theta-e
air that will punch into the 700-500 hPa layer later this evening.
This dry slot is also producing a bit of low static stability in
these models. While these dry slots do have the tendency to reduce
stability and potentially enhance snow rates, the frontogenetical
forcing one would typically like to see in banded snow cases is
questionable given the lack of a good temperature gradient or
converging wind fields. Rather, the frontogenesis in these models
seems to be in locations where diabatic cooling is taking place near
the dry slot. Can`t totally say this won`t happen, but it`s too risky
to put much weight in such a random process that seems to be giving
models a hard time (evidenced by the inconsistencies in if/where such
a band occurs). Will therefore stay with our general 1" to 3"
forecast, but later shifts will keep an eye on trends in case such a
band begins to take shape upstream. If this occurs we would have to
boost snow amounts for a few locations.

Weather pattern behind Thursday`s system still looks fairly quiet,
especially now that models are taking Friday`s system well south of
our area. This will favor dry conditions until Monday and Monday
night when a broad wave will track to our north and send a weak front
into the area. Given the storm track, most precipitation should fall
as rain other than perhaps a few flakes on the back side. All eyes
will then be on how this system evolves to our east with signs of
significant cyclogenesis taking place across the Ohio Valley or Great
Lakes. This would keep any major impacts for the Dec 23-24 period
east and northeast of our area, but it bears watching in case it
were to drift further west with future model runs.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KSGF 172101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.

Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 172101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.

Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Boxell





000
FXUS63 KLSX 172038
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The stratus continues to scatter across Illinois this morning with
much of the area seeing clear skies across the southeast portion
of Missouri ahead of the next weather system. Snow still expected
to spread from KS and western MO into central MO near or just
after midnight, with flight conditions lowering to IFR several
hours after the onset. Snow should spread into the St. Louis area
in the 10-11z time frame. The snow will taper off to flurries or
drizzle Thursday afternoon. Minor if any accumulation will occur
on runways thanks to relatively warm surface (road) temperatures.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions and light winds expected into the evening hours as
high pressure dominates the area. Snow is expected to spread
northeast from central and southern MO into the terminal around
10-11z, with flight conditions lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.
Improving visibility is expected after 17Z with IFR ceilings
continuing in the wake of the storm.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 172038
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave will bring light snow to
the area tonight and tomorrow morning. The LSX CWA will be
positioned beneath favorable upper level divergence (LER of an
upper jet), and models also show frontogenesis developing between
900-850 hPa across central and southeastern MO. Forecast snowfall
amounts are less than 2 inches across the CWA, and some locations
may not receive very much snow at all due to the initially dry
levels between approximately 900-600 hPa (per KSGF/KILX 12z
RAOBs) which must be overcome before precipitation can reach the
ground. Surface temperatures are comparatively warm, and even
minor accumulations may be limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.
Any lingering snow should taper off after noon on Thursday,
perhaps transitioning to drizzle due to the loss of ice crystals
aloft.

Other than the novelty of seeing snowflakes, few impacts are
expected. The Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained for
collaboration purposes.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Our area may be too far north to receive much precipitation from
the next system to move across the southern part of the US. The
upper trough is forecast to move through MO/AR/LA on Friday night,
but the associated surface low will be hugging the Gulf Coast.
Trended a bit lower and farther south with PoPs for Friday night.

NWP guidance points to additional systems which could bring rain
or snow to the area on Sunday (passage of an upper trough), Sunday
night into Monday (strengthening upstream vort max), and/or the
middle of next week (closed low migrating into northern MO or
southern IA), but there is too much variability attm for much more
than broad-brushed PoPs AOB 40% with RA/SN.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The stratus continues to scatter across Illinois this morning with
much of the area seeing clear skies across the southeast portion
of Missouri ahead of the next weather system. Snow still expected
to spread from KS and western MO into central MO near or just
after midnight, with flight conditions lowering to IFR several
hours after the onset. Snow should spread into the St. Louis area
in the 10-11z time frame. The snow will taper off to flurries or
drizzle Thursday afternoon. Minor if any accumulation will occur
on runways thanks to relatively warm surface (road) temperatures.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions and light winds expected into the evening hours as
high pressure dominates the area. Snow is expected to spread
northeast from central and southern MO into the terminal around
10-11z, with flight conditions lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.
Improving visibility is expected after 17Z with IFR ceilings
continuing in the wake of the storm.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 171831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 171831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 171831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 171831
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR has generally eroded westward and out of the KC area, so VFR
should be the rule for the next several hours. A large area of light
to perhaps moderate snow will overspread the area overnight with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Most of this should fall
through 12Z or so, with light snow or perhaps some light freezing
drizzle lingering into the late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KSGF 171732
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...18Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.

A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.

One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.

Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 171732
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...18Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.

A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.

One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.

Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 171732
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...18Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.

A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.

One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.

Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KSGF 171732
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...18Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.

A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.

One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Bands of wintry precipitation, initially in the form of a mix of
rain and sleet, will overspread the JLN and probably SGF terminals
through mid afternoon. From late afternoon through tonight, more
widespread precipitation--snow, sleet, and some rain, will affect
all three terminals. Confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of
precipitation, though IFR and/or LIFR are nearly assured once the
heavier wintry precip begins later today/tonight.

Organized precipitation will start to end late tonight, with low
clouds and drizzle continuing through at least mid day tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KLSX 171713
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1113 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Updated forecast to account for less cloud cover this afternoon
across a good majority of the CWA. Boosted temperatures a few
degrees as well. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for later
this evening, tonight and Thursday morning with a quick hitting
shot of accumulating snow.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The stratus continues to scatter across Illinois this morning with
much of the area seeing clear skies across the southeast portion
of Missouri ahead of the next weather system. Snow still expected
to spread from KS and western MO into central MO near or just
after midnight, with flight conditions lowering to IFR several
hours after the onset. Snow should spread into the St. Louis area
in the 10-11z time frame. The snow will taper off to flurries or
drizzle Thursday afternoon. Minor if any accumulation will occur
on runways thanks to relatively warm surface (road) temperatures.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions and light winds expected into the evening hours as
high pressure dominates the area. Snow is expected to spread
northeast from central and southern MO into the terminal around
10-11z, with flight conditions lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.
Improving visibility is expected after 17Z with IFR ceilings
continuing in the wake of the storm.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 171625
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1025 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Updated forecast to account for less cloud cover this afternoon
across a good majority of the CWA. Boosted temperatures a few
degrees as well. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for later
this evening, tonight and Thursday morning with a quick hitting
shot of accumulating snow.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The jagged back edge of the stratus was located from southeast IA
through eastern MO and was progressing to the southeast. Current
projections have the St. Louis area clearing in the 13-15z time
frame and KUIN 15-16z. VFR conditions are expected thereafter with
light winds through this evening. Snow will spread from KS and
western MO into central MO near or just after midnight, with flight
conditions lowering to IFR several hours after the onset. Snow
should spread into the St. Louis area in the 10-11z time frame.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR stratus should clear the terminal by 14z this morning with
VFR conditions and light winds dominating thereafter and well into
tonight. Snow is expected to spread northeast from central and
southern MO into the terminal around 10-11z, with flight conditions
lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 171625
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1025 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Updated forecast to account for less cloud cover this afternoon
across a good majority of the CWA. Boosted temperatures a few
degrees as well. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for later
this evening, tonight and Thursday morning with a quick hitting
shot of accumulating snow.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The jagged back edge of the stratus was located from southeast IA
through eastern MO and was progressing to the southeast. Current
projections have the St. Louis area clearing in the 13-15z time
frame and KUIN 15-16z. VFR conditions are expected thereafter with
light winds through this evening. Snow will spread from KS and
western MO into central MO near or just after midnight, with flight
conditions lowering to IFR several hours after the onset. Snow
should spread into the St. Louis area in the 10-11z time frame.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR stratus should clear the terminal by 14z this morning with
VFR conditions and light winds dominating thereafter and well into
tonight. Snow is expected to spread northeast from central and
southern MO into the terminal around 10-11z, with flight conditions
lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 171625
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1025 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Updated forecast to account for less cloud cover this afternoon
across a good majority of the CWA. Boosted temperatures a few
degrees as well. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for later
this evening, tonight and Thursday morning with a quick hitting
shot of accumulating snow.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The jagged back edge of the stratus was located from southeast IA
through eastern MO and was progressing to the southeast. Current
projections have the St. Louis area clearing in the 13-15z time
frame and KUIN 15-16z. VFR conditions are expected thereafter with
light winds through this evening. Snow will spread from KS and
western MO into central MO near or just after midnight, with flight
conditions lowering to IFR several hours after the onset. Snow
should spread into the St. Louis area in the 10-11z time frame.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR stratus should clear the terminal by 14z this morning with
VFR conditions and light winds dominating thereafter and well into
tonight. Snow is expected to spread northeast from central and
southern MO into the terminal around 10-11z, with flight conditions
lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 171625
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1025 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Updated forecast to account for less cloud cover this afternoon
across a good majority of the CWA. Boosted temperatures a few
degrees as well. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for later
this evening, tonight and Thursday morning with a quick hitting
shot of accumulating snow.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The jagged back edge of the stratus was located from southeast IA
through eastern MO and was progressing to the southeast. Current
projections have the St. Louis area clearing in the 13-15z time
frame and KUIN 15-16z. VFR conditions are expected thereafter with
light winds through this evening. Snow will spread from KS and
western MO into central MO near or just after midnight, with flight
conditions lowering to IFR several hours after the onset. Snow
should spread into the St. Louis area in the 10-11z time frame.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR stratus should clear the terminal by 14z this morning with
VFR conditions and light winds dominating thereafter and well into
tonight. Snow is expected to spread northeast from central and
southern MO into the terminal around 10-11z, with flight conditions
lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 171625
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1025 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Updated forecast to account for less cloud cover this afternoon
across a good majority of the CWA. Boosted temperatures a few
degrees as well. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for later
this evening, tonight and Thursday morning with a quick hitting
shot of accumulating snow.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The jagged back edge of the stratus was located from southeast IA
through eastern MO and was progressing to the southeast. Current
projections have the St. Louis area clearing in the 13-15z time
frame and KUIN 15-16z. VFR conditions are expected thereafter with
light winds through this evening. Snow will spread from KS and
western MO into central MO near or just after midnight, with flight
conditions lowering to IFR several hours after the onset. Snow
should spread into the St. Louis area in the 10-11z time frame.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR stratus should clear the terminal by 14z this morning with
VFR conditions and light winds dominating thereafter and well into
tonight. Snow is expected to spread northeast from central and
southern MO into the terminal around 10-11z, with flight conditions
lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171614
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1014 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.

A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.

One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

For the KSGF(Springfield), KJLN(Joplin), and KBBG(Branson) TAFS:
VFR conditions and light winds will occur this morning into early
this afternoon. Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread
across the region as ceilings will lower this afternoon into this
evening as a storm system approaches the region from the
southwest.

Rain, snow, and or a rain snow mix will overspread the TAF sites
late this afternoon into this evening, then will continue into the
overnight hours. There could be pockets of sleet within this
activity, but think any sleet will generally be short lived in
nature.

Minor snow accumulations will be possible late this afternoon into
tonight at the KSGF and KJLN TAF sites. Late tonight the snow will
begin to taper off and drizzle or freezing drizzle will be
possible. Will have to really watch temperatures as they will
likely be close to or at freezing Thursday morning. Any ice
accumulations will be very minor and the chances for freezing
drizzle will be better to the north of the TAF sites where
temperatures will be colder.

IFR ceilings will develop overnight and IFR visibilities will be
possible within any snow that develops. this evening and
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise





000
FXUS63 KSGF 171614
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1014 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

We have updated PoPs through this afternoon to reflect an earlier
onset to precipitation across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. A band of sleet/rain showers is just now moving
into our extreme southeastern Kansas counties. This band is
expected to continue east towards the Highway 65 corridor early
this afternoon. However, we are expecting a weakening trend by mid
afternoon as these showers encounter increasingly dry low level
air. While we could see some very minor/brief accumulations with
this activity, any impacts would be very minimal.

A heavier band of precipitation is then still expected to push
into southwestern Missouri late this afternoon...and then spread
northeast across the remainder of the Ozarks this evening. This
will likely be a sleet/snow mix with perhaps some rain across far
southern Missouri. Given that precipitation rates will be higher
with this activity, we do anticipate potential impacts to the
afternoon commute across southwestern Missouri and extreme
southeastern Kansas. We will therefore keep the 4 PM start time of
the Winter Weather Advisory intact.

One other final note is that we have lowered expected highs today
2-4 degrees over most areas. The combination of thickening clouds
cover and wet-bulbing potential given the dry low level air mass
does not bode well for much of a temperature rise today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

For the KSGF(Springfield), KJLN(Joplin), and KBBG(Branson) TAFS:
VFR conditions and light winds will occur this morning into early
this afternoon. Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread
across the region as ceilings will lower this afternoon into this
evening as a storm system approaches the region from the
southwest.

Rain, snow, and or a rain snow mix will overspread the TAF sites
late this afternoon into this evening, then will continue into the
overnight hours. There could be pockets of sleet within this
activity, but think any sleet will generally be short lived in
nature.

Minor snow accumulations will be possible late this afternoon into
tonight at the KSGF and KJLN TAF sites. Late tonight the snow will
begin to taper off and drizzle or freezing drizzle will be
possible. Will have to really watch temperatures as they will
likely be close to or at freezing Thursday morning. Any ice
accumulations will be very minor and the chances for freezing
drizzle will be better to the north of the TAF sites where
temperatures will be colder.

IFR ceilings will develop overnight and IFR visibilities will be
possible within any snow that develops. this evening and
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KLSX 171147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
547 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The jagged back edge of the stratus was located from southeast IA
through eastern MO and was progressing to the southeast. Current
projections have the St. Louis area clearing in the 13-15z time
frame and KUIN 15-16z. VFR conditions are expected thereafter with
light winds through this evening. Snow will spread from KS and
western MO into central MO near or just after midnight, with flight
conditions lowering to IFR several hours after the onset. Snow
should spread into the St. Louis area in the 10-11z time frame.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR stratus should clear the terminal by 14z this morning with
VFR conditions and light winds dominating thereafter and well into
tonight. Snow is expected to spread northeast from central and
southern MO into the terminal around 10-11z, with flight conditions
lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 171147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
547 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The jagged back edge of the stratus was located from southeast IA
through eastern MO and was progressing to the southeast. Current
projections have the St. Louis area clearing in the 13-15z time
frame and KUIN 15-16z. VFR conditions are expected thereafter with
light winds through this evening. Snow will spread from KS and
western MO into central MO near or just after midnight, with flight
conditions lowering to IFR several hours after the onset. Snow
should spread into the St. Louis area in the 10-11z time frame.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR stratus should clear the terminal by 14z this morning with
VFR conditions and light winds dominating thereafter and well into
tonight. Snow is expected to spread northeast from central and
southern MO into the terminal around 10-11z, with flight conditions
lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 171147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
547 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The jagged back edge of the stratus was located from southeast IA
through eastern MO and was progressing to the southeast. Current
projections have the St. Louis area clearing in the 13-15z time
frame and KUIN 15-16z. VFR conditions are expected thereafter with
light winds through this evening. Snow will spread from KS and
western MO into central MO near or just after midnight, with flight
conditions lowering to IFR several hours after the onset. Snow
should spread into the St. Louis area in the 10-11z time frame.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR stratus should clear the terminal by 14z this morning with
VFR conditions and light winds dominating thereafter and well into
tonight. Snow is expected to spread northeast from central and
southern MO into the terminal around 10-11z, with flight conditions
lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 171147
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
547 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

The jagged back edge of the stratus was located from southeast IA
through eastern MO and was progressing to the southeast. Current
projections have the St. Louis area clearing in the 13-15z time
frame and KUIN 15-16z. VFR conditions are expected thereafter with
light winds through this evening. Snow will spread from KS and
western MO into central MO near or just after midnight, with flight
conditions lowering to IFR several hours after the onset. Snow
should spread into the St. Louis area in the 10-11z time frame.

Specifics for KSTL:

MVFR stratus should clear the terminal by 14z this morning with
VFR conditions and light winds dominating thereafter and well into
tonight. Snow is expected to spread northeast from central and
southern MO into the terminal around 10-11z, with flight conditions
lowering to IFR by 15z Thursday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 171138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR stratus has generally broken up across the area, but a few
pockets remain, especially across southern Nebraska and eastern
Kansas. Observations have shown some general improvement at the
terminals, but with the presence of low clouds in the area will keep
a TEMPO going for MVFR CIGS through 16z. By mid day low level clouds
should be sparse, with mid level clouds remaining in place. VFR
conditions should prevail through the evening and early overnight
hours. By 06z expect light snow to move into the terminals, lasting
through at least 12z Thursday morning. Heavy snow is not anticipated,
but VIS should deteriorate to IFR levels through the overnight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 171138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR stratus has generally broken up across the area, but a few
pockets remain, especially across southern Nebraska and eastern
Kansas. Observations have shown some general improvement at the
terminals, but with the presence of low clouds in the area will keep
a TEMPO going for MVFR CIGS through 16z. By mid day low level clouds
should be sparse, with mid level clouds remaining in place. VFR
conditions should prevail through the evening and early overnight
hours. By 06z expect light snow to move into the terminals, lasting
through at least 12z Thursday morning. Heavy snow is not anticipated,
but VIS should deteriorate to IFR levels through the overnight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 171138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR stratus has generally broken up across the area, but a few
pockets remain, especially across southern Nebraska and eastern
Kansas. Observations have shown some general improvement at the
terminals, but with the presence of low clouds in the area will keep
a TEMPO going for MVFR CIGS through 16z. By mid day low level clouds
should be sparse, with mid level clouds remaining in place. VFR
conditions should prevail through the evening and early overnight
hours. By 06z expect light snow to move into the terminals, lasting
through at least 12z Thursday morning. Heavy snow is not anticipated,
but VIS should deteriorate to IFR levels through the overnight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 171138
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR stratus has generally broken up across the area, but a few
pockets remain, especially across southern Nebraska and eastern
Kansas. Observations have shown some general improvement at the
terminals, but with the presence of low clouds in the area will keep
a TEMPO going for MVFR CIGS through 16z. By mid day low level clouds
should be sparse, with mid level clouds remaining in place. VFR
conditions should prevail through the evening and early overnight
hours. By 06z expect light snow to move into the terminals, lasting
through at least 12z Thursday morning. Heavy snow is not anticipated,
but VIS should deteriorate to IFR levels through the overnight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KSGF 171119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

For the KSGF(Springfield), KJLN(Joplin), and KBBG(Branson) TAFS:
VFR conditions and light winds will occur this morning into early
this afternoon. Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread
across the region as ceilings will lower this afternoon into this
evening as a storm system approaches the region from the
southwest.

Rain, snow, and or a rain snow mix will overspread the TAF sites
late this afternoon into this evening, then will continue into the
overnight hours. There could be pockets of sleet within this
activity, but think any sleet will generally be short lived in
nature.

Minor snow accumulations will be possible late this afternoon into
tonight at the KSGF and KJLN TAF sites. Late tonight the snow will
begin to taper off and drizzle or freezing drizzle will be
possible. Will have to really watch temperatures as they will
likely be close to or at freezing Thursday morning. Any ice
accumulations will be very minor and the chances for freezing
drizzle will be better to the north of the TAF sites where
temperatures will be colder.

IFR ceilings will develop overnight and IFR visibilities will be possible
within any snow that develops. this evening and tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise






000
FXUS63 KSGF 171119
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

For the KSGF(Springfield), KJLN(Joplin), and KBBG(Branson) TAFS:
VFR conditions and light winds will occur this morning into early
this afternoon. Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread
across the region as ceilings will lower this afternoon into this
evening as a storm system approaches the region from the
southwest.

Rain, snow, and or a rain snow mix will overspread the TAF sites
late this afternoon into this evening, then will continue into the
overnight hours. There could be pockets of sleet within this
activity, but think any sleet will generally be short lived in
nature.

Minor snow accumulations will be possible late this afternoon into
tonight at the KSGF and KJLN TAF sites. Late tonight the snow will
begin to taper off and drizzle or freezing drizzle will be
possible. Will have to really watch temperatures as they will
likely be close to or at freezing Thursday morning. Any ice
accumulations will be very minor and the chances for freezing
drizzle will be better to the north of the TAF sites where
temperatures will be colder.

IFR ceilings will develop overnight and IFR visibilities will be possible
within any snow that develops. this evening and tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>096-098.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171038
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Wintry Mix Late This Afternoon Through Early Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Sky has cleared from west to east this evening at the TAF sites,
and was being replaced with mid/upper level cloudiness spreading
back into the area from the west in advance of the next system.
Ceilings will lower tonight/Wednesday with lower levels beginning
to eventually saturate enough for some precipitation by late in
the day Wednesday or early evening. May begin as a mix of
rain/snow at SGF but expecting light rain at Branson/Joplin at the onset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for areas
along and north of Highway 60.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for
Bourbon and Crawford Counties. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171038
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Wintry Mix Late This Afternoon Through Early Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Sky has cleared from west to east this evening at the TAF sites,
and was being replaced with mid/upper level cloudiness spreading
back into the area from the west in advance of the next system.
Ceilings will lower tonight/Wednesday with lower levels beginning
to eventually saturate enough for some precipitation by late in
the day Wednesday or early evening. May begin as a mix of
rain/snow at SGF but expecting light rain at Branson/Joplin at the onset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for areas
along and north of Highway 60.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for
Bourbon and Crawford Counties. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171038
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Wintry Mix Late This Afternoon Through Early Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Sky has cleared from west to east this evening at the TAF sites,
and was being replaced with mid/upper level cloudiness spreading
back into the area from the west in advance of the next system.
Ceilings will lower tonight/Wednesday with lower levels beginning
to eventually saturate enough for some precipitation by late in
the day Wednesday or early evening. May begin as a mix of
rain/snow at SGF but expecting light rain at Branson/Joplin at the onset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for areas
along and north of Highway 60.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for
Bourbon and Crawford Counties. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 171038
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Wintry Mix Late This Afternoon Through Early Thursday...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

High clouds were already on the increase early this morning ahead
of a storm system tracking out of the desert southwest. Expect
cloud cover to thicken during the day as this shortwave trough
moves into the southern Plains later this afternoon. Meanwhile a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the central Canadian
provinces to the Ohio river valley will maintain an easterly low
level fetch. The result will be another chilly day with continued
dry air advection in the low levels.

As the shortwave approaches...isentropic upglide will strengthen
and overspread the region later this afternoon into this evening
while we come of under the influence of the increasing upper level
divergence. Backing flow within the 850-700 MB layer will result
good theta-e advection. Also expect the development of mid level
frontogenesis from eastern Kansas into central Missouri. All of
this to say is there will be several hours of good synoptic scale
lift. A drier lower level column will initially delay onset of
precipitation but believe the magnitude of lift will result in a
rather rapid moistening of the lower troposphere. This could result
in a rapid onset of precipitation once the lower levels saturate.

Expect precipitation in the form of rain or rain/sleet mix to
develop into southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
toward late afternoon then spread northeastward across the
Missouri Ozarks through early evening. A wintry mix could begin
by the evening commute along the Highway 60 corridor.
Precipitation should transition to all snow or snow/sleet mix
across much of the area as the lower atmospheric column. Areas of
freezing drizzle may develop late tonight as we begin to lose
cloud ice.

Temperatures will initially be above freezing but lower to near
just below the freezing mark generally along and north of the
Highway 60 corridor. Expect temperatures to hover just above the
freezing mark closer to the Arkansas and Oklahoma border where
little if any accumulation is expected.

Expect snow accumulations mixed with some sleet to range from
around one half to one and a half inches with local amounts near 2
inches. The higher totals will occur from east central Kansas into
central Missouri.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late this afternoon
through early Thursday morning for areas generally along and north
of Highway 60. The temperature profile and accumulations are more
uncertain along the southern portion of the advisory area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Temperatures will rise above freezing Thursday. Areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle will transition to just drizzle by midday.
Will have to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle Thursday
night but temperatures look to be just above freezing for most
areas.

The next upper level trough will track east into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Friday and Friday night. The northern
extent of the precipitation shield associated with this system
will brush by southern Missouri later in the Friday into Friday
night. Expect light snow mainly across far south central Missouri
Friday night. Only minor if any accumulation is expected with this
system.

Dry and seasonably cold weather is in store for this week. A cold
front will arrive Tuesday which will usher much colder
temperatures into the region for the middle and later part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Sky has cleared from west to east this evening at the TAF sites,
and was being replaced with mid/upper level cloudiness spreading
back into the area from the west in advance of the next system.
Ceilings will lower tonight/Wednesday with lower levels beginning
to eventually saturate enough for some precipitation by late in
the day Wednesday or early evening. May begin as a mix of
rain/snow at SGF but expecting light rain at Branson/Joplin at the onset.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for areas
along and north of Highway 60.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory 4 PM today to 9 AM Thursday for
Bourbon and Crawford Counties. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 171035
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
435 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A narrow band of MVFR cigs continues to make for a tricky TAF period.
This band has slowly sagged southward this evening with erosion occurring
on the northern edge. Models are having a hard time with this shallow
layer and it is difficult to determine if it will completely erode or
just continue to push southward. Expect terminals to scatter out by
8Z with IXD being the last to scatter out closer to 10Z. BUFKIT
soundings are showing a brief window between 14-17Z where a few MVFR
cigs may redevelop. Given model uncertainty, have decided to leave it
out of the current TAF. A 5-7 Kft deck will build in by tomorrow
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough progged to move across the
region tomorrow night. Light winds will gradually shift around to the
east by tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 171035
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
435 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Chilly conditions continue this morning as low temperatures remain
in the middle 20s to upper teen. Area clouds are somewhat spotty,
and should gradually wane in coverage as we proceed through the day.
The focus then becomes centered on a fairly low-impact winter
weather system that is poised to move into the area tonight bringing
some light snow and freezing drizzle.

Water vapor imagery around 10z indicates the trough in question over
Las Vegas, moving eastward toward the Rocky Mountain region. In
response to the approaching mid level wave a lee side surface trough
is forming over the High Plains. This low will help to shunt the
surface ridge, which is responsible for the chilly surface
temperatures to ever so slowly creep eastward. Its impacts will be
felt through the day though as it only makes enough eastward
progress to cause the surface winds to become easterly, as opposed
to southerly, as would be the case if it moved far enough east. This
will keep the chilly surface temperatures in place through the day.
Expect high temps today to reside in the lower to middle 30s. As the
mid level trough approaches this afternoon and this evening a
decent..but not incredibly strong isentropic lifting of warm/moist
air over the low level cold air will take place. Condensation
pressure deficits by tonight approach 0 mb along the 275K to 285K
surfaces, indicating deep saturation and good lift. Mid level ascent
will be realized by the quickly moving mid level trough. All told,
good, deep ascent, on the order of around 10 to 15 -ubars/sec will
be realized through the saturated dendritic growth layer after
sunset.

As far as onset times go, it`s a bit tricky to determine exactly
when the snow will begin to fall. Forecast soundings over the
southern part of the CWA (south of I-70) indicate some snow
formation as early as 00z this evening. But NAM soundings -
corroborated by upstream observed soundings - indicate a VERY dry
lowest 6000 feet of the atmosphere.  While it`s possible that some
of that high altitude snow may overcome that dry air and make it to
the surface it`s unlikely that it will be able to accumulate much.
By midnight however, enough sublimation and lift will have occurred
to adequately saturate the column and produce accumulating snow. The
best window for lift and saturation will be in the 03z to 12z time
frame tonight. Expect enough snow production to at least cause the
ground to be covered, and perhaps produce up to 3 inches.

The mesoscale forecast for this event is also tricky. 00z NAM
indicated several enhanced bullseyes of precipitation concurrent
with a completely frozen thermal profile, indicating pockets of
heavy snow. The 06z NAM has since backed off a little bit on those
pockets of enhanced precip formation. These pockets of enhanced
convection almost always signal some enhanced low/mid level
frontogenesis, but in this case forecast cross sections only yields
marginal frontogenesis. However there is some indication that
Saturated Theta E contours will decrease with height in some
locations, yielding some fairly decent equivalent potential
vorticity values approaching -1. This would indicate that there will
be a somewhat moderately unstable atmosphere through the overnight
hours, and this could yield the pockets of convective snow showers.
Areas where these convective showers form could see snowfall values
exceeding the general 1-3 inch snow range.

As you go farther to the NE the more dry air is in place for the
moisture to overcome, so snowfall totals are about 1/2 of what they
are expected to be along and south of I-70. Issued the Winter
Weather Advisory over areas most likely to exceed the 1" snowfall
total.

Once the system departs early Thursday morning there will remain
some shallow saturation, which could yield some freezing drizzle.
Expect that hazard to persist until temperatures warm up above
freezing, likely by mid to late Thursday morning.

The next system, late this week into the weekend should remain too
far to the south to really affect much of the forecast area. So
expect dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend. The
next trough moves through early next week and will likely bring some
rain, as thermal profiles at this point look to remain mostly above
zero, aside from some overnight hours where temperatures go below
freezing. By the time we approach the Christmas Holiday there are
beginning to show up some signals that a cold blast will be on its
way for Christmas week. Precip chances look somewhat meager, but
that could change as we approach the middle part of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A narrow band of MVFR cigs continues to make for a tricky TAF period.
This band has slowly sagged southward this evening with erosion occurring
on the northern edge. Models are having a hard time with this shallow
layer and it is difficult to determine if it will completely erode or
just continue to push southward. Expect terminals to scatter out by
8Z with IXD being the last to scatter out closer to 10Z. BUFKIT
soundings are showing a brief window between 14-17Z where a few MVFR
cigs may redevelop. Given model uncertainty, have decided to leave it
out of the current TAF. A 5-7 Kft deck will build in by tomorrow
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough progged to move across the
region tomorrow night. Light winds will gradually shift around to the
east by tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR KSZ102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Noon CST
     Thursday FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-032-033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KLSX 170959
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
359 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings will soon clear out of KCOU, but will likely remain
in KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites through 12-14Z based on
the latest satellite trends. There is still some possibility that
additional MVFR ceilings will move south in KCOU between 06-12Z
and will monitor over the next few hours. Otherwise expect mainly
dry and VFR conditions from mid morning Wednesday through at
least 00Z. Then another storm system will approach the area from
the southwest and bring a chance of snow to KCOU before
06Z...though uncertainty is too high at this point to include in
the TAF at this time. Accumulations before 06Z at KCOU are
expected to be light.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings will likely hold through 12-14Z
based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR conditions are
expected with winds becoming light and variable as high pressure
moves across the area. Then a storm system will approach the area
late in the period with light snow developing at the terminal
after 06Z, with MVFR or IFR conditions possible after 12Z.

Britt
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 170959
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
359 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Surface ridge overhead today. SC deck to finally scatter out over
most of forecast area this morning. However, mid and high clouds
beginning to stream in ahead of next weather system. Winds will be
lighter today with highs in the 30s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

Upper level shortwave to slide northeast towards forecast area
tonight. So will see warm advection increase tonight with light snow
developing over southwestern Missouri and spread northeast into
forecast area. However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it
will take some time for snow to make progress to the northeast. It
should move into central and southern MO by 06z Thursday, towards
12z Thursday for STL metro area and by midmorning for areas to the
north and east. So it will be a rather quick shot of snow with
highest amounts, between 1 and 2 inches, along and south of a Columbia
to Farmington line, with lesser amounts to the north. Fortunately air
temperatures will be near freezing and ground temps are still
relatively warm, so most of the accumulations will be on grassy
surfaces and elevated objects. Could still cause some messy road
conditions in central and southern Missouri, so will issue a
winter weather advisory for this area from 06z Thursday to 16z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, upper levels dry out, losing ice
crystals, so could see some light drizzle as system exits.
Temperatures over far northern portions of forecast area could be
near freezing, so some light freezing drizzle possible.

Surface ridge builds back in Thursday night with dry weather
returning to the region. However, another system to slide through
region Friday night with main energy well south of forecast area. We
will remain on the cold side of system with overrunning
precipitation developing which could reach as far north as I-70
corridor. Could see a brief mix of light rain and snow over southern
portions of forecast area Friday evening before changing over all
snow. System exits region rather quickly as upper trof lifts it
northeast towards great lakes region. Precipitation tapering off by
Saturday morning.

Beyond that, surface ridge moves off to the east by Sunday allowing
southerly winds to return to the region once again. Temperatures to
moderate through the first part of next week with highs in the 40s.
Another system to move in by Monday, but with temps above freezing
should be in the form of rain through Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings will soon clear out of KCOU, but will likely remain
in KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites through 12-14Z based on
the latest satellite trends. There is still some possibility that
additional MVFR ceilings will move south in KCOU between 06-12Z
and will monitor over the next few hours. Otherwise expect mainly
dry and VFR conditions from mid morning Wednesday through at
least 00Z. Then another storm system will approach the area from
the southwest and bring a chance of snow to KCOU before
06Z...though uncertainty is too high at this point to include in
the TAF at this time. Accumulations before 06Z at KCOU are
expected to be light.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings will likely hold through 12-14Z
based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR conditions are
expected with winds becoming light and variable as high pressure
moves across the area. Then a storm system will approach the area
late in the period with light snow developing at the terminal
after 06Z, with MVFR or IFR conditions possible after 12Z.

Britt
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Thursday FOR Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Washington MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 170542
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1142 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Low level ridge will drift across the area tonight which will allow
clouds to gradually scatter out. This combined with light winds will
allow temperatures to drop into the 20s overnight, possibly some
teens across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Partly to
mostly sunny skies will continue into Wednesday with temperatures
rising into the middle to upper 30s.

Light precipitation is still expected to overspread the area
Wednesday night into early Thursday when a deamplifying shortwave
will track across the Plains. Thermal profiles generally look
supportive of all snow with this system, although forecast soundings
are awfully close to the 0C isotherm in the 5-10Kft layer, so it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a bit of sleet mixing in especially
south of I-70. Most models are producing a swath of 0.2" to 0.4"
across areas near and south of US-36 through early Thursday morning,
which would translate to a broad 2" to 4" across these areas given
anticipated snow-to-liquid ratios around 11:1. However, forcing with
this system doesn`t look too impressive and it`s questionable whether
these QPF amounts can be realized. Isentropic ascent ahead of this
wave will be fairly weak and there`s no real signal for any notable
mesoscale ascent. There will be a brief period of modest upper-level
divergence within a coupled upper jet and perhaps some PVA with the
main upper wave, but these sources of broad synoptic-scale ascent
alone wouldn`t normally produce 3" or 4" of snow especially in just a
4- to 6-hour period (would mean snow rates approaching 1" per hour,
and this usually requires some source of mesoscale ascent). Am
therefore going with only about half of what these models are
producing, generally 1" to 2" across all but far north central and
northeast Missouri. While not overly impressive amounts, most of this
will fall right before Thursday morning`s commute so there could
still be some noteworthy impacts from this system. Wouldn`t be
surprising to see some amounts a bit higher than this especially over
eastern KS into west central MO where a few models are hinting at
weak and progressive frontogenetical ascent around 06Z to 09Z.

Precipitation should decrease fairly quickly through the morning
hours Thursday as the primary upper wave weakens. This will result in
a loss of upper-level moisture which could favor a bit of drizzle or
freezing drizzle into the early afternoon. Lift by this time doesn`t
look impressive particularly in the lower levels where saturation
will exist, so any drizzle should be light if anything at all and
impacts to travel minimal. Temperatures look to rise above freezing
across areas south of US 36 by mid afternoon.

Models continue to trend south with the next system which will track
across the Southern Plains Friday and Friday night. This should keep
almost all of the precipitation to the south of the forecast area.
Southerly winds behind this system will bring a modest warming trend
heading into early next week with highs reaching the 40s by Sunday
and Monday. Next chance for precip will arrive with a weak front
Monday and Monday night, most of which looks to be in the form of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A narrow band of MVFR cigs continues to make for a tricky TAF period.
This band has slowly sagged southward this evening with erosion occurring
on the northern edge. Models are having a hard time with this shallow
layer and it is difficult to determine if it will completely erode or
just continue to push southward. Expect terminals to scatter out by
8Z with IXD being the last to scatter out closer to 10Z. BUFKIT
soundings are showing a brief window between 14-17Z where a few MVFR
cigs may redevelop. Given model uncertainty, have decided to leave it
out of the current TAF. A 5-7 Kft deck will build in by tomorrow
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough progged to move across the
region tomorrow night. Light winds will gradually shift around to the
east by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KEAX 170542
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1142 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Low level ridge will drift across the area tonight which will allow
clouds to gradually scatter out. This combined with light winds will
allow temperatures to drop into the 20s overnight, possibly some
teens across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Partly to
mostly sunny skies will continue into Wednesday with temperatures
rising into the middle to upper 30s.

Light precipitation is still expected to overspread the area
Wednesday night into early Thursday when a deamplifying shortwave
will track across the Plains. Thermal profiles generally look
supportive of all snow with this system, although forecast soundings
are awfully close to the 0C isotherm in the 5-10Kft layer, so it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a bit of sleet mixing in especially
south of I-70. Most models are producing a swath of 0.2" to 0.4"
across areas near and south of US-36 through early Thursday morning,
which would translate to a broad 2" to 4" across these areas given
anticipated snow-to-liquid ratios around 11:1. However, forcing with
this system doesn`t look too impressive and it`s questionable whether
these QPF amounts can be realized. Isentropic ascent ahead of this
wave will be fairly weak and there`s no real signal for any notable
mesoscale ascent. There will be a brief period of modest upper-level
divergence within a coupled upper jet and perhaps some PVA with the
main upper wave, but these sources of broad synoptic-scale ascent
alone wouldn`t normally produce 3" or 4" of snow especially in just a
4- to 6-hour period (would mean snow rates approaching 1" per hour,
and this usually requires some source of mesoscale ascent). Am
therefore going with only about half of what these models are
producing, generally 1" to 2" across all but far north central and
northeast Missouri. While not overly impressive amounts, most of this
will fall right before Thursday morning`s commute so there could
still be some noteworthy impacts from this system. Wouldn`t be
surprising to see some amounts a bit higher than this especially over
eastern KS into west central MO where a few models are hinting at
weak and progressive frontogenetical ascent around 06Z to 09Z.

Precipitation should decrease fairly quickly through the morning
hours Thursday as the primary upper wave weakens. This will result in
a loss of upper-level moisture which could favor a bit of drizzle or
freezing drizzle into the early afternoon. Lift by this time doesn`t
look impressive particularly in the lower levels where saturation
will exist, so any drizzle should be light if anything at all and
impacts to travel minimal. Temperatures look to rise above freezing
across areas south of US 36 by mid afternoon.

Models continue to trend south with the next system which will track
across the Southern Plains Friday and Friday night. This should keep
almost all of the precipitation to the south of the forecast area.
Southerly winds behind this system will bring a modest warming trend
heading into early next week with highs reaching the 40s by Sunday
and Monday. Next chance for precip will arrive with a weak front
Monday and Monday night, most of which looks to be in the form of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A narrow band of MVFR cigs continues to make for a tricky TAF period.
This band has slowly sagged southward this evening with erosion occurring
on the northern edge. Models are having a hard time with this shallow
layer and it is difficult to determine if it will completely erode or
just continue to push southward. Expect terminals to scatter out by
8Z with IXD being the last to scatter out closer to 10Z. BUFKIT
soundings are showing a brief window between 14-17Z where a few MVFR
cigs may redevelop. Given model uncertainty, have decided to leave it
out of the current TAF. A 5-7 Kft deck will build in by tomorrow
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough progged to move across the
region tomorrow night. Light winds will gradually shift around to the
east by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KLSX 170539
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 926 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus clouds were slowly clearing out of portions of western MO
this evening, and this clearing should finally make it into at
least the western portions of our forecast area late tonight. Mid-
high level clouds will be advecting eastward from the Plains into
the forecast area late tonight. The surface winds should continue
to gradually diminish as the surface ridge over the northern
Plains continues to build southeastward into our area. Temperatures
tonight will be colder than last night, but still close to
seasonal normals for mid December. Latest NAM model run continues
to show the potential for light accumulating snow mainly late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings will soon clear out of KCOU, but will likely remain
in KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites through 12-14Z based on
the latest satellite trends. There is still some possibility that
additional MVFR ceilings will move south in KCOU between 06-12Z
and will monitor over the next few hours. Otherwise expect mainly
dry and VFR conditions from mid morning Wednesday through at
least 00Z. Then another storm system will approach the area from
the southwest and bring a chance of snow to KCOU before
06Z...though uncertainty is too high at this point to include in
the TAF at this time. Accumulations before 06Z at KCOU are
expected to be light.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings will likely hold through 12-14Z
based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR conditions are
expected with winds becoming light and variable as high pressure
moves across the area. Then a storm system will approach the area
late in the period with light snow developing at the terminal
after 06Z, with MVFR or IFR conditions possible after 12Z.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 170539
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 926 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus clouds were slowly clearing out of portions of western MO
this evening, and this clearing should finally make it into at
least the western portions of our forecast area late tonight. Mid-
high level clouds will be advecting eastward from the Plains into
the forecast area late tonight. The surface winds should continue
to gradually diminish as the surface ridge over the northern
Plains continues to build southeastward into our area. Temperatures
tonight will be colder than last night, but still close to
seasonal normals for mid December. Latest NAM model run continues
to show the potential for light accumulating snow mainly late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings will soon clear out of KCOU, but will likely remain
in KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF sites through 12-14Z based on
the latest satellite trends. There is still some possibility that
additional MVFR ceilings will move south in KCOU between 06-12Z
and will monitor over the next few hours. Otherwise expect mainly
dry and VFR conditions from mid morning Wednesday through at
least 00Z. Then another storm system will approach the area from
the southwest and bring a chance of snow to KCOU before
06Z...though uncertainty is too high at this point to include in
the TAF at this time. Accumulations before 06Z at KCOU are
expected to be light.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings will likely hold through 12-14Z
based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR conditions are
expected with winds becoming light and variable as high pressure
moves across the area. Then a storm system will approach the area
late in the period with light snow developing at the terminal
after 06Z, with MVFR or IFR conditions possible after 12Z.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 170502
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1102 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Sky has cleared from west to east this evening at the TAF sites,
and was being replaced with mid/upper level cloudiness spreading
back into the area from the west in advance of the next system.
Ceilings will lower tonight/Wednesday with lower levels beginning
to eventually saturate enough for some precipitation by late in
the day Wednesday or early evening. May begin as a mix of
rain/snow at SGF but expecting light rain at Branson/Joplin at the onset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KLSX 170345
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
945 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 926 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus clouds were slowly clearing out of portions of western MO
this evening, and this clearing should finally make it into at
least the western portions of our forecast area late tonight. Mid-
high level clouds will be advecting eastward from the Plains into
the forecast area late tonight. The surface winds should continue
to gradually diminish as the surface ridge over the northern
Plains continues to build southeastward into our area. Temperatures
tonight will be colder than last night, but still close to
seasonal normals for mid December. Latest NAM model run continues
to show the potential for light accumulating snow mainly late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the TAF sites between
06-08Z based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Northwest
winds will become light and variable by late afternoon Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
clear out around 08Z. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the
rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 170345
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
945 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 926 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus clouds were slowly clearing out of portions of western MO
this evening, and this clearing should finally make it into at
least the western portions of our forecast area late tonight. Mid-
high level clouds will be advecting eastward from the Plains into
the forecast area late tonight. The surface winds should continue
to gradually diminish as the surface ridge over the northern
Plains continues to build southeastward into our area. Temperatures
tonight will be colder than last night, but still close to
seasonal normals for mid December. Latest NAM model run continues
to show the potential for light accumulating snow mainly late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the TAF sites between
06-08Z based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Northwest
winds will become light and variable by late afternoon Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
clear out around 08Z. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the
rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 170345
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
945 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 926 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus clouds were slowly clearing out of portions of western MO
this evening, and this clearing should finally make it into at
least the western portions of our forecast area late tonight. Mid-
high level clouds will be advecting eastward from the Plains into
the forecast area late tonight. The surface winds should continue
to gradually diminish as the surface ridge over the northern
Plains continues to build southeastward into our area. Temperatures
tonight will be colder than last night, but still close to
seasonal normals for mid December. Latest NAM model run continues
to show the potential for light accumulating snow mainly late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the TAF sites between
06-08Z based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Northwest
winds will become light and variable by late afternoon Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
clear out around 08Z. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the
rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 170345
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
945 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 926 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus clouds were slowly clearing out of portions of western MO
this evening, and this clearing should finally make it into at
least the western portions of our forecast area late tonight. Mid-
high level clouds will be advecting eastward from the Plains into
the forecast area late tonight. The surface winds should continue
to gradually diminish as the surface ridge over the northern
Plains continues to build southeastward into our area. Temperatures
tonight will be colder than last night, but still close to
seasonal normals for mid December. Latest NAM model run continues
to show the potential for light accumulating snow mainly late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the TAF sites between
06-08Z based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Northwest
winds will become light and variable by late afternoon Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
clear out around 08Z. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the
rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 170345
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
945 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 926 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus clouds were slowly clearing out of portions of western MO
this evening, and this clearing should finally make it into at
least the western portions of our forecast area late tonight. Mid-
high level clouds will be advecting eastward from the Plains into
the forecast area late tonight. The surface winds should continue
to gradually diminish as the surface ridge over the northern
Plains continues to build southeastward into our area. Temperatures
tonight will be colder than last night, but still close to
seasonal normals for mid December. Latest NAM model run continues
to show the potential for light accumulating snow mainly late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the TAF sites between
06-08Z based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Northwest
winds will become light and variable by late afternoon Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
clear out around 08Z. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the
rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 170345
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
945 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 926 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus clouds were slowly clearing out of portions of western MO
this evening, and this clearing should finally make it into at
least the western portions of our forecast area late tonight. Mid-
high level clouds will be advecting eastward from the Plains into
the forecast area late tonight. The surface winds should continue
to gradually diminish as the surface ridge over the northern
Plains continues to build southeastward into our area. Temperatures
tonight will be colder than last night, but still close to
seasonal normals for mid December. Latest NAM model run continues
to show the potential for light accumulating snow mainly late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the TAF sites between
06-08Z based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Northwest
winds will become light and variable by late afternoon Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
clear out around 08Z. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the
rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 170345
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
945 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 926 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus clouds were slowly clearing out of portions of western MO
this evening, and this clearing should finally make it into at
least the western portions of our forecast area late tonight. Mid-
high level clouds will be advecting eastward from the Plains into
the forecast area late tonight. The surface winds should continue
to gradually diminish as the surface ridge over the northern
Plains continues to build southeastward into our area. Temperatures
tonight will be colder than last night, but still close to
seasonal normals for mid December. Latest NAM model run continues
to show the potential for light accumulating snow mainly late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the TAF sites between
06-08Z based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Northwest
winds will become light and variable by late afternoon Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
clear out around 08Z. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the
rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 170345
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
945 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 926 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Stratus clouds were slowly clearing out of portions of western MO
this evening, and this clearing should finally make it into at
least the western portions of our forecast area late tonight. Mid-
high level clouds will be advecting eastward from the Plains into
the forecast area late tonight. The surface winds should continue
to gradually diminish as the surface ridge over the northern
Plains continues to build southeastward into our area. Temperatures
tonight will be colder than last night, but still close to
seasonal normals for mid December. Latest NAM model run continues
to show the potential for light accumulating snow mainly late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the TAF sites between
06-08Z based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Northwest
winds will become light and variable by late afternoon Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
clear out around 08Z. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the
rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 170026
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
626 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the TAF sites between
06-08Z based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Northwest
winds will become light and variable by late afternoon Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
clear out around 08Z. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the
rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 170026
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
626 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the TAF sites between
06-08Z based on latest satellite trends. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Northwest
winds will become light and variable by late afternoon Wednesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Ceilings around 2000 feet are expected to
clear out around 08Z. Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the
rest of the TAF period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 162342
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Low level ridge will drift across the area tonight which will allow
clouds to gradually scatter out. This combined with light winds will
allow temperatures to drop into the 20s overnight, possibly some
teens across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Partly to
mostly sunny skies will continue into Wednesday with temperatures
rising into the middle to upper 30s.

Light precipitation is still expected to overspread the area
Wednesday night into early Thursday when a deamplifying shortwave
will track across the Plains. Thermal profiles generally look
supportive of all snow with this system, although forecast soundings
are awfully close to the 0C isotherm in the 5-10Kft layer, so it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a bit of sleet mixing in especially
south of I-70. Most models are producing a swath of 0.2" to 0.4"
across areas near and south of US-36 through early Thursday morning,
which would translate to a broad 2" to 4" across these areas given
anticipated snow-to-liquid ratios around 11:1. However, forcing with
this system doesn`t look too impressive and it`s questionable whether
these QPF amounts can be realized. Isentropic ascent ahead of this
wave will be fairly weak and there`s no real signal for any notable
mesoscale ascent. There will be a brief period of modest upper-level
divergence within a coupled upper jet and perhaps some PVA with the
main upper wave, but these sources of broad synoptic-scale ascent
alone wouldn`t normally produce 3" or 4" of snow especially in just a
4- to 6-hour period (would mean snow rates approaching 1" per hour,
and this usually requires some source of mesoscale ascent). Am
therefore going with only about half of what these models are
producing, generally 1" to 2" across all but far north central and
northeast Missouri. While not overly impressive amounts, most of this
will fall right before Thursday morning`s commute so there could
still be some noteworthy impacts from this system. Wouldn`t be
surprising to see some amounts a bit higher than this especially over
eastern KS into west central MO where a few models are hinting at
weak and progressive frontogenetical ascent around 06Z to 09Z.

Precipitation should decrease fairly quickly through the morning
hours Thursday as the primary upper wave weakens. This will result in
a loss of upper-level moisture which could favor a bit of drizzle or
freezing drizzle into the early afternoon. Lift by this time doesn`t
look impressive particularly in the lower levels where saturation
will exist, so any drizzle should be light if anything at all and
impacts to travel minimal. Temperatures look to rise above freezing
across areas south of US 36 by mid afternoon.

Models continue to trend south with the next system which will track
across the Southern Plains Friday and Friday night. This should keep
almost all of the precipitation to the south of the forecast area.
Southerly winds behind this system will bring a modest warming trend
heading into early next week with highs reaching the 40s by Sunday
and Monday. Next chance for precip will arrive with a weak front
Monday and Monday night, most of which looks to be in the form of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Latest model guidance suggests that stubborn stratus deck will remain
in place overnight. Upstream obs and current IR satellite show
stratus across much of Nebraska and portions of Iowa. With cloud
level winds out of the northwest, do not expect much more eroding of
the stratus. Terminals MCI, MKC, and IXD may see the deck scatter for
a few hours before filling in, but timing of this remains tricky.
Have added a tempo group for now and will continue to monitor for
next issuance. Winds will decrease overnight and become more
northerly to northeasterly by tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM







000
FXUS63 KEAX 162342
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Low level ridge will drift across the area tonight which will allow
clouds to gradually scatter out. This combined with light winds will
allow temperatures to drop into the 20s overnight, possibly some
teens across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Partly to
mostly sunny skies will continue into Wednesday with temperatures
rising into the middle to upper 30s.

Light precipitation is still expected to overspread the area
Wednesday night into early Thursday when a deamplifying shortwave
will track across the Plains. Thermal profiles generally look
supportive of all snow with this system, although forecast soundings
are awfully close to the 0C isotherm in the 5-10Kft layer, so it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a bit of sleet mixing in especially
south of I-70. Most models are producing a swath of 0.2" to 0.4"
across areas near and south of US-36 through early Thursday morning,
which would translate to a broad 2" to 4" across these areas given
anticipated snow-to-liquid ratios around 11:1. However, forcing with
this system doesn`t look too impressive and it`s questionable whether
these QPF amounts can be realized. Isentropic ascent ahead of this
wave will be fairly weak and there`s no real signal for any notable
mesoscale ascent. There will be a brief period of modest upper-level
divergence within a coupled upper jet and perhaps some PVA with the
main upper wave, but these sources of broad synoptic-scale ascent
alone wouldn`t normally produce 3" or 4" of snow especially in just a
4- to 6-hour period (would mean snow rates approaching 1" per hour,
and this usually requires some source of mesoscale ascent). Am
therefore going with only about half of what these models are
producing, generally 1" to 2" across all but far north central and
northeast Missouri. While not overly impressive amounts, most of this
will fall right before Thursday morning`s commute so there could
still be some noteworthy impacts from this system. Wouldn`t be
surprising to see some amounts a bit higher than this especially over
eastern KS into west central MO where a few models are hinting at
weak and progressive frontogenetical ascent around 06Z to 09Z.

Precipitation should decrease fairly quickly through the morning
hours Thursday as the primary upper wave weakens. This will result in
a loss of upper-level moisture which could favor a bit of drizzle or
freezing drizzle into the early afternoon. Lift by this time doesn`t
look impressive particularly in the lower levels where saturation
will exist, so any drizzle should be light if anything at all and
impacts to travel minimal. Temperatures look to rise above freezing
across areas south of US 36 by mid afternoon.

Models continue to trend south with the next system which will track
across the Southern Plains Friday and Friday night. This should keep
almost all of the precipitation to the south of the forecast area.
Southerly winds behind this system will bring a modest warming trend
heading into early next week with highs reaching the 40s by Sunday
and Monday. Next chance for precip will arrive with a weak front
Monday and Monday night, most of which looks to be in the form of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Latest model guidance suggests that stubborn stratus deck will remain
in place overnight. Upstream obs and current IR satellite show
stratus across much of Nebraska and portions of Iowa. With cloud
level winds out of the northwest, do not expect much more eroding of
the stratus. Terminals MCI, MKC, and IXD may see the deck scatter for
a few hours before filling in, but timing of this remains tricky.
Have added a tempo group for now and will continue to monitor for
next issuance. Winds will decrease overnight and become more
northerly to northeasterly by tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM






000
FXUS63 KSGF 162302
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 458 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Drier air was slowly working eastward in the lower levels and has
been clearing the cloud cover from west to east late this
afternoon. This trend will continue into the evening hours with
clearing starting to take place at SGF and BBG by 01-02z. As high
pressure moves into the area, surface winds will diminish to light
and variable this evening and will continue through the remainder
of the TAFS. Higher level clouds will begin to move into the area
towards morning and will begin to lower during the day Wednesday,
but should remain in VFR through 00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 162302
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 458 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Drier air was slowly working eastward in the lower levels and has
been clearing the cloud cover from west to east late this
afternoon. This trend will continue into the evening hours with
clearing starting to take place at SGF and BBG by 01-02z. As high
pressure moves into the area, surface winds will diminish to light
and variable this evening and will continue through the remainder
of the TAFS. Higher level clouds will begin to move into the area
towards morning and will begin to lower during the day Wednesday,
but should remain in VFR through 00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 162302
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 458 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Drier air was slowly working eastward in the lower levels and has
been clearing the cloud cover from west to east late this
afternoon. This trend will continue into the evening hours with
clearing starting to take place at SGF and BBG by 01-02z. As high
pressure moves into the area, surface winds will diminish to light
and variable this evening and will continue through the remainder
of the TAFS. Higher level clouds will begin to move into the area
towards morning and will begin to lower during the day Wednesday,
but should remain in VFR through 00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KSGF 162302
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 458 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Drier air was slowly working eastward in the lower levels and has
been clearing the cloud cover from west to east late this
afternoon. This trend will continue into the evening hours with
clearing starting to take place at SGF and BBG by 01-02z. As high
pressure moves into the area, surface winds will diminish to light
and variable this evening and will continue through the remainder
of the TAFS. Higher level clouds will begin to move into the area
towards morning and will begin to lower during the day Wednesday,
but should remain in VFR through 00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 162121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Low level ridge will drift across the area tonight which will allow
clouds to gradually scatter out. This combined with light winds will
allow temperatures to drop into the 20s overnight, possibly some
teens across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Partly to
mostly sunny skies will continue into Wednesday with temperatures
rising into the middle to upper 30s.

Light precipitation is still expected to overspread the area
Wednesday night into early Thursday when a deamplifying shortwave
will track across the Plains. Thermal profiles generally look
supportive of all snow with this system, although forecast soundings
are awfully close to the 0C isotherm in the 5-10Kft layer, so it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a bit of sleet mixing in especially
south of I-70. Most models are producing a swath of 0.2" to 0.4"
across areas near and south of US-36 through early Thursday morning,
which would translate to a broad 2" to 4" across these areas given
anticipated snow-to-liquid ratios around 11:1. However, forcing with
this system doesn`t look too impressive and it`s questionable whether
these QPF amounts can be realized. Isentropic ascent ahead of this
wave will be fairly weak and there`s no real signal for any notable
mesoscale ascent. There will be a brief period of modest upper-level
divergence within a coupled upper jet and perhaps some PVA with the
main upper wave, but these sources of broad synoptic-scale ascent
alone wouldn`t normally produce 3" or 4" of snow especially in just a
4- to 6-hour period (would mean snow rates approaching 1" per hour,
and this usually requires some source of mesoscale ascent). Am
therefore going with only about half of what these models are
producing, generally 1" to 2" across all but far north central and
northeast Missouri. While not overly impressive amounts, most of this
will fall right before Thursday morning`s commute so there could
still be some noteworthy impacts from this system. Wouldn`t be
surprising to see some amounts a bit higher than this especially over
eastern KS into west central MO where a few models are hinting at
weak and progressive frontogenetical ascent around 06Z to 09Z.

Precipitation should decrease fairly quickly through the morning
hours Thursday as the primary upper wave weakens. This will result in
a loss of upper-level moisture which could favor a bit of drizzle or
freezing drizzle into the early afternoon. Lift by this time doesn`t
look impressive particularly in the lower levels where saturation
will exist, so any drizzle should be light if anything at all and
impacts to travel minimal. Temperatures look to rise above freezing
across areas south of US 36 by mid afternoon.

Models continue to trend south with the next system which will track
across the Southern Plains Friday and Friday night. This should keep
almost all of the precipitation to the south of the forecast area.
Southerly winds behind this system will bring a modest warming trend
heading into early next week with highs reaching the 40s by Sunday
and Monday. Next chance for precip will arrive with a weak front
Monday and Monday night, most of which looks to be in the form of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR deck being stubborn to clear out, but trends suggest ceilings
should eventually lift to near or just above 2000 feet in the next
few hours. Eventually these clouds will scatter out altogether with
VFR expected overnight into tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 162121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Low level ridge will drift across the area tonight which will allow
clouds to gradually scatter out. This combined with light winds will
allow temperatures to drop into the 20s overnight, possibly some
teens across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Partly to
mostly sunny skies will continue into Wednesday with temperatures
rising into the middle to upper 30s.

Light precipitation is still expected to overspread the area
Wednesday night into early Thursday when a deamplifying shortwave
will track across the Plains. Thermal profiles generally look
supportive of all snow with this system, although forecast soundings
are awfully close to the 0C isotherm in the 5-10Kft layer, so it
wouldn`t be surprising to see a bit of sleet mixing in especially
south of I-70. Most models are producing a swath of 0.2" to 0.4"
across areas near and south of US-36 through early Thursday morning,
which would translate to a broad 2" to 4" across these areas given
anticipated snow-to-liquid ratios around 11:1. However, forcing with
this system doesn`t look too impressive and it`s questionable whether
these QPF amounts can be realized. Isentropic ascent ahead of this
wave will be fairly weak and there`s no real signal for any notable
mesoscale ascent. There will be a brief period of modest upper-level
divergence within a coupled upper jet and perhaps some PVA with the
main upper wave, but these sources of broad synoptic-scale ascent
alone wouldn`t normally produce 3" or 4" of snow especially in just a
4- to 6-hour period (would mean snow rates approaching 1" per hour,
and this usually requires some source of mesoscale ascent). Am
therefore going with only about half of what these models are
producing, generally 1" to 2" across all but far north central and
northeast Missouri. While not overly impressive amounts, most of this
will fall right before Thursday morning`s commute so there could
still be some noteworthy impacts from this system. Wouldn`t be
surprising to see some amounts a bit higher than this especially over
eastern KS into west central MO where a few models are hinting at
weak and progressive frontogenetical ascent around 06Z to 09Z.

Precipitation should decrease fairly quickly through the morning
hours Thursday as the primary upper wave weakens. This will result in
a loss of upper-level moisture which could favor a bit of drizzle or
freezing drizzle into the early afternoon. Lift by this time doesn`t
look impressive particularly in the lower levels where saturation
will exist, so any drizzle should be light if anything at all and
impacts to travel minimal. Temperatures look to rise above freezing
across areas south of US 36 by mid afternoon.

Models continue to trend south with the next system which will track
across the Southern Plains Friday and Friday night. This should keep
almost all of the precipitation to the south of the forecast area.
Southerly winds behind this system will bring a modest warming trend
heading into early next week with highs reaching the 40s by Sunday
and Monday. Next chance for precip will arrive with a weak front
Monday and Monday night, most of which looks to be in the form of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR deck being stubborn to clear out, but trends suggest ceilings
should eventually lift to near or just above 2000 feet in the next
few hours. Eventually these clouds will scatter out altogether with
VFR expected overnight into tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel








000
FXUS63 KLSX 162120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

The primary forecast question for this set of TAFs is whether the
stratus will end during the next 24 hours. On one hand, there`s an
extensive area of stratus located upstream as well as northwest
winds which will continue advecting the clouds into MO/IL. On the
other hand, there`s also a hole in the aforementioned cloud bank,
and RAP forecasts (CPD) as well as BUFKIT soundings show
additional drying, which suggests that existing clouds should
start to dissipate and that it will be difficult for new clouds to
develop even within cyclonic flow. On the other other hand, the
cig/vis trend viewer in AVNFPS is evenly split on whether clouds
usually persist through 12z or become less likely after 04-06z,
depending on what conditions look like at 21z and 00z. In short,
there is a surprisingly high amount of uncertainty with the cig
forecast. This set of TAFs splits the difference and keeps MVFR
ceilings in place through 06-08z, but it`s equally likely that
ceilings could improve earlier than forecast or persist later than
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: It`s equally likely that MVFR stratus could
persist beyond 12z or depart earlier around 06z. There might also
be a brief break between 23z-02z, depending on what happens with
the hole in the clouds over IA which was noted on satellite
imagery at TAF issuance. Regardless of what happens with the MVFR
stratus, increasing mid and high level clouds are expected after
12z.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     27  36  30  36 /   0   0  60  60
Quincy          23  34  24  32 /   0   0  20  50
Columbia        23  36  29  36 /   0   5  80  60
Jefferson City  23  36  29  37 /   0   5  80  60
Salem           27  36  30  36 /   0   0  30  60
Farmington      26  38  29  36 /   0   5  80  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 162120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

(Tonight)

Deep cyclonic flow and cold air advection in the wake of yesterday`s
storm system kept diurnal temperature rises minimal today. Solid
shield of stratus yielded an occasional period of drizzle or
flurry, but nothing measurable was observed.

Cloud trends for tonight are uncertain. An extensive area of stratus
was located upstream, and northwest winds near 925mb remain
favorable for continued advection of these clouds into our area. On
the other hand, a hole was located in the cloud deck over western
IA, and if this area does not fill in, then skies should start to
clear over the Columbia and St. Louis areas between 23-02z. RAP
plots of increasing condensation pressure deficits between 975-900mb
tonight along with BUFKIT soundings which depict drying aloft both
support the idea of dissipating stratus/stratocu this evening,
although mid/high clouds will be increasing later tonight regardless
of what happens with the stratus/stratocu. However, BUFKIT profiles
also show a fair amount of subsidence above the low cloud layer,
which may act to trap moisture below the inversion and keep the
clouds in place. Partial clearing appears more likely over central
MO than elsewhere. Winds should remain around 10 kts for most of the
night.

CVKING/Kanofsky

(Wednesday - Friday)

Deep trof of low pressure currently coming onshore along the west
coast with our eyes tracking a pair of circulations that will bring
two chances of precipitation to the area the next seven days.

The first circulation will come ashore along the Baja tonight and
lift northeast across the southwest CONUS and southern Plains on
Wednesday. Warm advection will ramp up across the area Wednesday
night with light snow expected to rapidly develop and move into the
area from the southwest. Models continue to "moisten" the forecast
with higher QPF noted. Have increased POP and expected snowfall
amounts with up to two inches now possible across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks and an inch into the western suburbs of the
St. Louis Metro Area. Unfortunately it appears that the snow will be
hitting the St. Louis area either right before or at rush hour
Thursday morning. Luckily, ground temperatures are relatively warm
and air temperatures should be in the upper 20s or lower 30s. The
hope is that impact on travel will be low with this event. Snow will
taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
lifts east of the area. Lingering low level moisture and rising
surface temperatures suggest drizzle will be possible in the
afternoon hours.

The second and more potent circulation of the two will dig even
further south across the Baja before lifting east/northeast across
the deep south on Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave
will also be diving southeast across the Plains. Unfortunately for
the snow lovers these two systems don`t appear to fully phase until
they are east of the area. Some snow flurries or light snow will be
possible across the far southern CWA Friday afternoon.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Friday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

Continuing with the late week system, models push the southern
system, which will be the main driver of pcpn, well to our south
with some interaction with a northern system still anticipated to
help bring perhaps some light pcpn well to the north into a good
part of our region for Friday night. PoPs remain low because of
concerns of measurability, with many locations perhaps tracing out
instead. Pcpn-types favor snow.

The northern system itself will not quite get thru the forecast area
until later on Saturday and maintained slight chances for that
reason.

Southerly flow at the low levels will then be seen for Sunday and
Monday, helping temps to at or above normal levels once again.

Heading towards the middle of next week, a longwave RIDGE will
attempt to re-establish itself over western North America in
imitation of the dominant pattern in November, with a strong
shortwave disturbance dropping down in NW flow and a developing
upper level TROF over the central CONUS.  Look for increasing PoPs
for this period with temps beginning to drop back to below normal
once again.

Christmas could be pretty quiet across our region, taking a sneak
peak at the long range models.  But it looks to only be a timing
issue, with one system leaving and another lurking about a day away,
so this could change very quickly given all of the typical timing
issues the models have this far out.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

The primary forecast question for this set of TAFs is whether the
stratus will end during the next 24 hours. On one hand, there`s an
extensive area of stratus located upstream as well as northwest
winds which will continue advecting the clouds into MO/IL. On the
other hand, there`s also a hole in the aforementioned cloud bank,
and RAP forecasts (CPD) as well as BUFKIT soundings show
additional drying, which suggests that existing clouds should
start to dissipate and that it will be difficult for new clouds to
develop even within cyclonic flow. On the other other hand, the
cig/vis trend viewer in AVNFPS is evenly split on whether clouds
usually persist through 12z or become less likely after 04-06z,
depending on what conditions look like at 21z and 00z. In short,
there is a surprisingly high amount of uncertainty with the cig
forecast. This set of TAFs splits the difference and keeps MVFR
ceilings in place through 06-08z, but it`s equally likely that
ceilings could improve earlier than forecast or persist later than
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: It`s equally likely that MVFR stratus could
persist beyond 12z or depart earlier around 06z. There might also
be a brief break between 23z-02z, depending on what happens with
the hole in the clouds over IA which was noted on satellite
imagery at TAF issuance. Regardless of what happens with the MVFR
stratus, increasing mid and high level clouds are expected after
12z.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     27  36  30  36 /   0   0  60  60
Quincy          23  34  24  32 /   0   0  20  50
Columbia        23  36  29  36 /   0   5  80  60
Jefferson City  23  36  29  37 /   0   5  80  60
Salem           27  36  30  36 /   0   0  30  60
Farmington      26  38  29  36 /   0   5  80  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KSGF 162057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS:

Main forecast concern is on cloud trends this afternoon and evening
and corresponding ceilings heights.

12Z KSGF sounding shows low level moisture in the 900mb-850mb layer.
Examinations of short term model trends indicates this layer to
slowly dry through the afternoon from west to east as surface high
pressure shifts eastward from Kansas. Visible satellite imagery
showing back edge of clouds into eastern Kansas. MVFR ceilings will
slowly rise at the taf sites before scattering out later this
afternoon. Of note is the 15Z RAP BUKFIT soundings are slower in
pushing this moisture out this afternoon. Based on latest
satellite trends feel RAP may be to slow. As high slides across
the terminals tonight into early Wednesday expect VFR conditions
with light winds. Mid level moisture begins to increase ahead of
the next wave between 15Z-18Z but any ceilings that develop will
be in the VFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding






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