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000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 041220
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
720 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

VFR flight conditions and light southerly flow will prevail
through Saturday morning. Expect river valley fog to dissipate
over the next hour or so with no visibility restrictions expected
after 13-14Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to continue with light
southerly flow.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 041128
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Today - Sunday...

This will be a relatively benign period defined by a deep upper
trough over the western U.S. and a sharp upper ridge extending from
South Texas through far eastern MN. The upper ridge will move little
through Saturday before starting to break down and flatten Saturday
night through Sunday as the upstream trough lifts northeast and then
tracks through the Northern Plains. As a result expect the above
average temperature & humidity levels that we`ve had the last few
days to last through the weekend.

In the very short term a mid level shortwave trough from central NE
through north central KS will lift northeast this morning. Scattered
elevated convection aided by isentropic ascent on the 315K surface
will lift northeast before dissipating late this morning. The
southern edge of this convection could nick the northwest corner of
MO this morning.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Operational models are generating similar signals that this will be
a rather wet period with the potential for some heavy rainfall
before it`s all said and done. As the upper trough passes north of
the CWA and the upper ridge axis sags slowly south an associated
cold front will likely stall somewhere over the CWA or vacillate
north and south over northern MO before finally exiting south of the
region on Wednesday. Precipitable water values approaching 2 inches
(150-200% of normal) over the region combined with a stalled front
oriented nearly parallel to the mid/upper level flow coupled with
the development of nocturnal low level jets hints at the potential
for convection repeating over the same areas. Lots can happen over
the next 3 days to change this but regional climatology shows we
experience a secondary max of rain in September and stalled fronts
are usually one of the main ingredients.

Temperatures will be governed by the daily rain chances and cloud
cover but for now will use a more normal range of values.

Thursday - Friday...

The end of the forecast period will see a marked change from the
above average temperatures of the first week of September and the
potentially heavy rains from Sunday night through Tuesday night.
Significantly cooler and drier air is expected to force its way
southward with h8 temperatures projected to fall into the 12C-14C
range. Will have to see if the model trend of this much cooling
holds together as the surface high forecast into the Central Plains
is not particularly strong.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will continue as a system lifts northeast through
Nebraska. Will see some debris high level cloudiness across
northwest MO this morning. Otherwise expect any shower activity to
pass to the northwest of mo.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ



000
FXUS63 KEAX 041128
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Today - Sunday...

This will be a relatively benign period defined by a deep upper
trough over the western U.S. and a sharp upper ridge extending from
South Texas through far eastern MN. The upper ridge will move little
through Saturday before starting to break down and flatten Saturday
night through Sunday as the upstream trough lifts northeast and then
tracks through the Northern Plains. As a result expect the above
average temperature & humidity levels that we`ve had the last few
days to last through the weekend.

In the very short term a mid level shortwave trough from central NE
through north central KS will lift northeast this morning. Scattered
elevated convection aided by isentropic ascent on the 315K surface
will lift northeast before dissipating late this morning. The
southern edge of this convection could nick the northwest corner of
MO this morning.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Operational models are generating similar signals that this will be
a rather wet period with the potential for some heavy rainfall
before it`s all said and done. As the upper trough passes north of
the CWA and the upper ridge axis sags slowly south an associated
cold front will likely stall somewhere over the CWA or vacillate
north and south over northern MO before finally exiting south of the
region on Wednesday. Precipitable water values approaching 2 inches
(150-200% of normal) over the region combined with a stalled front
oriented nearly parallel to the mid/upper level flow coupled with
the development of nocturnal low level jets hints at the potential
for convection repeating over the same areas. Lots can happen over
the next 3 days to change this but regional climatology shows we
experience a secondary max of rain in September and stalled fronts
are usually one of the main ingredients.

Temperatures will be governed by the daily rain chances and cloud
cover but for now will use a more normal range of values.

Thursday - Friday...

The end of the forecast period will see a marked change from the
above average temperatures of the first week of September and the
potentially heavy rains from Sunday night through Tuesday night.
Significantly cooler and drier air is expected to force its way
southward with h8 temperatures projected to fall into the 12C-14C
range. Will have to see if the model trend of this much cooling
holds together as the surface high forecast into the Central Plains
is not particularly strong.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will continue as a system lifts northeast through
Nebraska. Will see some debris high level cloudiness across
northwest MO this morning. Otherwise expect any shower activity to
pass to the northwest of mo.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 041104
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0303 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Upper level ridging and high pressure remain in control of the
region`s weather and will continue through tonight. Clear skies,
light winds and temperatures on the warm side of average for this
time of year will once again impact the area today.

Afternoon highs will climb to around the 90 degree mark for most
of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas after morning lows only
falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Humidity values across the area will be similar to the past few
days.

The air mass will remain in place for tonight with temperatures
again only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0303 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

THe holiday weekend looks to be a continuation of this week`s
weather with generally dry conditions. Temperatures will be around
90 degrees for Saturday and Sunday, with morning lows around 70,
as the upper level ridge remains over the area.

An upper level trough will be in the process of breaking the ridge
down during Sunday however. Models are in relatively good
agreement with brining a more active weather pattern to the
region for much of next week. A cold front is expected to move
into the Ozarks by Monday morning and linger over the area through
Thursday as the upper level pattern flattens across the plains and
Mississippi valley.

This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area
for several days next week with temperatures on a downward trend
through the week as well.

The cold front will finally push south of the region late Thursday
into Friday as Canadian high pressure moves in behind it. This
will bring a cooler and drier airmass to the area for the end of
the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0559 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions will
continue through tonight. Winds will remain below 12 knots out of
the south to southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann



000
FXUS63 KSGF 041104
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0303 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Upper level ridging and high pressure remain in control of the
region`s weather and will continue through tonight. Clear skies,
light winds and temperatures on the warm side of average for this
time of year will once again impact the area today.

Afternoon highs will climb to around the 90 degree mark for most
of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas after morning lows only
falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Humidity values across the area will be similar to the past few
days.

The air mass will remain in place for tonight with temperatures
again only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0303 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

THe holiday weekend looks to be a continuation of this week`s
weather with generally dry conditions. Temperatures will be around
90 degrees for Saturday and Sunday, with morning lows around 70,
as the upper level ridge remains over the area.

An upper level trough will be in the process of breaking the ridge
down during Sunday however. Models are in relatively good
agreement with brining a more active weather pattern to the
region for much of next week. A cold front is expected to move
into the Ozarks by Monday morning and linger over the area through
Thursday as the upper level pattern flattens across the plains and
Mississippi valley.

This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area
for several days next week with temperatures on a downward trend
through the week as well.

The cold front will finally push south of the region late Thursday
into Friday as Canadian high pressure moves in behind it. This
will bring a cooler and drier airmass to the area for the end of
the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0559 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions will
continue through tonight. Winds will remain below 12 knots out of
the south to southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KSGF 041104
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0303 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Upper level ridging and high pressure remain in control of the
region`s weather and will continue through tonight. Clear skies,
light winds and temperatures on the warm side of average for this
time of year will once again impact the area today.

Afternoon highs will climb to around the 90 degree mark for most
of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas after morning lows only
falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Humidity values across the area will be similar to the past few
days.

The air mass will remain in place for tonight with temperatures
again only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0303 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

THe holiday weekend looks to be a continuation of this week`s
weather with generally dry conditions. Temperatures will be around
90 degrees for Saturday and Sunday, with morning lows around 70,
as the upper level ridge remains over the area.

An upper level trough will be in the process of breaking the ridge
down during Sunday however. Models are in relatively good
agreement with brining a more active weather pattern to the
region for much of next week. A cold front is expected to move
into the Ozarks by Monday morning and linger over the area through
Thursday as the upper level pattern flattens across the plains and
Mississippi valley.

This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area
for several days next week with temperatures on a downward trend
through the week as well.

The cold front will finally push south of the region late Thursday
into Friday as Canadian high pressure moves in behind it. This
will bring a cooler and drier airmass to the area for the end of
the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 0559 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions will
continue through tonight. Winds will remain below 12 knots out of
the south to southeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040905
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Today - Sunday...

This will be a relatively benign period defined by a deep upper
trough over the western U.S. and a sharp upper ridge extending from
South Texas through far eastern MN. The upper ridge will move little
through Saturday before starting to break down and flatten Saturday
night through Sunday as the upstream trough lifts northeast and then
tracks through the Northern Plains. As a result expect the above
average temperature & humidity levels that we`ve had the last few
days to last through the weekend.

In the very short term a mid level shortwave trough from central NE
through north central KS will lift northeast this morning. Scattered
elevated convection aided by isentropic ascent on the 315K surface
will lift northeast before dissipating late this morning. The
southern edge of this convection could nick the northwest corner of
MO this morning.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Operational models are generating similar signals that this will be
a rather wet period with the potential for some heavy rainfall
before it`s all said and done. As the upper trough passes north of
the CWA and the upper ridge axis sags slowly south an associated
cold front will likely stall somewhere over the CWA or vacillate
north and south over northern MO before finally exiting south of the
region on Wednesday. Precipitable water values approaching 2 inches
(150-200% of normal) over the region combined with a stalled front
oriented nearly parallel to the mid/upper level flow coupled with
the development of nocturnal low level jets hints at the potential
for convection repeating over the same areas. Lots can happen over
the next 3 days to change this but regional climatology shows we
experience a secondary max of rain in September and stalled fronts
are usually one of the main ingredients.

Temperatures will be governed by the daily rain chances and cloud
cover but for now will use a more normal range of values.

Thursday - Friday...

The end of the forecast period will see a marked change from the
above average temperatures of the first week of September and the
potentially heavy rains from Sunday night through Tuesday night.
Significantly cooler and drier air is expected to force its way
southward with h8 temperatures projected to fall into the 12C-14C
range. Will have to see if the model trend of this much cooling
holds together as the surface high forecast into the Central Plains
is not particularly strong.




A slight taste of early Fall


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period; may see some occasional
wind gusts during the afternoon before speeds relax in the evening.
Chances for precipitation impacting terminals much lower tonight than
previous nights. Periods of high-level clouds will move across the
area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040905
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Today - Sunday...

This will be a relatively benign period defined by a deep upper
trough over the western U.S. and a sharp upper ridge extending from
South Texas through far eastern MN. The upper ridge will move little
through Saturday before starting to break down and flatten Saturday
night through Sunday as the upstream trough lifts northeast and then
tracks through the Northern Plains. As a result expect the above
average temperature & humidity levels that we`ve had the last few
days to last through the weekend.

In the very short term a mid level shortwave trough from central NE
through north central KS will lift northeast this morning. Scattered
elevated convection aided by isentropic ascent on the 315K surface
will lift northeast before dissipating late this morning. The
southern edge of this convection could nick the northwest corner of
MO this morning.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Operational models are generating similar signals that this will be
a rather wet period with the potential for some heavy rainfall
before it`s all said and done. As the upper trough passes north of
the CWA and the upper ridge axis sags slowly south an associated
cold front will likely stall somewhere over the CWA or vacillate
north and south over northern MO before finally exiting south of the
region on Wednesday. Precipitable water values approaching 2 inches
(150-200% of normal) over the region combined with a stalled front
oriented nearly parallel to the mid/upper level flow coupled with
the development of nocturnal low level jets hints at the potential
for convection repeating over the same areas. Lots can happen over
the next 3 days to change this but regional climatology shows we
experience a secondary max of rain in September and stalled fronts
are usually one of the main ingredients.

Temperatures will be governed by the daily rain chances and cloud
cover but for now will use a more normal range of values.

Thursday - Friday...

The end of the forecast period will see a marked change from the
above average temperatures of the first week of September and the
potentially heavy rains from Sunday night through Tuesday night.
Significantly cooler and drier air is expected to force its way
southward with h8 temperatures projected to fall into the 12C-14C
range. Will have to see if the model trend of this much cooling
holds together as the surface high forecast into the Central Plains
is not particularly strong.




A slight taste of early Fall


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period; may see some occasional
wind gusts during the afternoon before speeds relax in the evening.
Chances for precipitation impacting terminals much lower tonight than
previous nights. Periods of high-level clouds will move across the
area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040905
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Today - Sunday...

This will be a relatively benign period defined by a deep upper
trough over the western U.S. and a sharp upper ridge extending from
South Texas through far eastern MN. The upper ridge will move little
through Saturday before starting to break down and flatten Saturday
night through Sunday as the upstream trough lifts northeast and then
tracks through the Northern Plains. As a result expect the above
average temperature & humidity levels that we`ve had the last few
days to last through the weekend.

In the very short term a mid level shortwave trough from central NE
through north central KS will lift northeast this morning. Scattered
elevated convection aided by isentropic ascent on the 315K surface
will lift northeast before dissipating late this morning. The
southern edge of this convection could nick the northwest corner of
MO this morning.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Operational models are generating similar signals that this will be
a rather wet period with the potential for some heavy rainfall
before it`s all said and done. As the upper trough passes north of
the CWA and the upper ridge axis sags slowly south an associated
cold front will likely stall somewhere over the CWA or vacillate
north and south over northern MO before finally exiting south of the
region on Wednesday. Precipitable water values approaching 2 inches
(150-200% of normal) over the region combined with a stalled front
oriented nearly parallel to the mid/upper level flow coupled with
the development of nocturnal low level jets hints at the potential
for convection repeating over the same areas. Lots can happen over
the next 3 days to change this but regional climatology shows we
experience a secondary max of rain in September and stalled fronts
are usually one of the main ingredients.

Temperatures will be governed by the daily rain chances and cloud
cover but for now will use a more normal range of values.

Thursday - Friday...

The end of the forecast period will see a marked change from the
above average temperatures of the first week of September and the
potentially heavy rains from Sunday night through Tuesday night.
Significantly cooler and drier air is expected to force its way
southward with h8 temperatures projected to fall into the 12C-14C
range. Will have to see if the model trend of this much cooling
holds together as the surface high forecast into the Central Plains
is not particularly strong.




A slight taste of early Fall


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period; may see some occasional
wind gusts during the afternoon before speeds relax in the evening.
Chances for precipitation impacting terminals much lower tonight than
previous nights. Periods of high-level clouds will move across the
area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KEAX 040905
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Today - Sunday...

This will be a relatively benign period defined by a deep upper
trough over the western U.S. and a sharp upper ridge extending from
South Texas through far eastern MN. The upper ridge will move little
through Saturday before starting to break down and flatten Saturday
night through Sunday as the upstream trough lifts northeast and then
tracks through the Northern Plains. As a result expect the above
average temperature & humidity levels that we`ve had the last few
days to last through the weekend.

In the very short term a mid level shortwave trough from central NE
through north central KS will lift northeast this morning. Scattered
elevated convection aided by isentropic ascent on the 315K surface
will lift northeast before dissipating late this morning. The
southern edge of this convection could nick the northwest corner of
MO this morning.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Operational models are generating similar signals that this will be
a rather wet period with the potential for some heavy rainfall
before it`s all said and done. As the upper trough passes north of
the CWA and the upper ridge axis sags slowly south an associated
cold front will likely stall somewhere over the CWA or vacillate
north and south over northern MO before finally exiting south of the
region on Wednesday. Precipitable water values approaching 2 inches
(150-200% of normal) over the region combined with a stalled front
oriented nearly parallel to the mid/upper level flow coupled with
the development of nocturnal low level jets hints at the potential
for convection repeating over the same areas. Lots can happen over
the next 3 days to change this but regional climatology shows we
experience a secondary max of rain in September and stalled fronts
are usually one of the main ingredients.

Temperatures will be governed by the daily rain chances and cloud
cover but for now will use a more normal range of values.

Thursday - Friday...

The end of the forecast period will see a marked change from the
above average temperatures of the first week of September and the
potentially heavy rains from Sunday night through Tuesday night.
Significantly cooler and drier air is expected to force its way
southward with h8 temperatures projected to fall into the 12C-14C
range. Will have to see if the model trend of this much cooling
holds together as the surface high forecast into the Central Plains
is not particularly strong.




A slight taste of early Fall


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period; may see some occasional
wind gusts during the afternoon before speeds relax in the evening.
Chances for precipitation impacting terminals much lower tonight than
previous nights. Periods of high-level clouds will move across the
area.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 040829
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Expect another very warm and dry day as 850mb temperatures are
expected stay near +20C favoring highs in the lower-mid 90s like
the past few days. Went with highs closer to the warmer GFS MOS
which is closer to mixing down the warmer temperatures. Kept the
forecast dry as the upper ridge will be building over us. However
can`t totally rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with little CINH.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2015

Still expect a dry and very warm weekend as both the GFS and NAM
continue to show the upper level ridge staying over the region on
Saturday and Sunday. Will keep with similar highs on Saturday and
Sunday as thermal fields will be the same in the lower atmosphere
with southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the area by
Sunday night as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. This front will not actually move through the area
until Wednesday when a shortwave trough will move across the area.
As a result...there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along the the slow moving front from Monday until the front exits
the area late on Wednesday. Cooler air will move into the area
beginning on Wednesday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 040818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0303 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Upper level ridging and high pressure remain in control of the
regions weather and will continue through tonight. Clear skies,
light winds and temperatures on the warm side of average for this
time of year will once again impact the area today.

Afternoon highs will climb to around the 90 degree mark for most
of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas after morning lows only
falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s this morning.

Humidity values across the area will be similar to the past few
days.

The air mass will remain in place for tonight with temperatures
again only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0303 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

THe holiday weekend looks to be a continuation of this weeks
weather with generally dry conditions. Temperatures will be in be
around 90 degrees for Saturday and Sunday, with morning lows
around 70, as the upper level ridge remains over the area.

An upper level trough will be in the process of breaking the ridge
down during Sunday however. Models are in relatively good
agreement with brining a more active weather patter to the region
for much of next week. A cold front is expected to move into the
Ozarks by Monday morning and linger over the area through
Thursday as the upper level pattern flattens across the plains and
Mississippi valley.

This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area
for several days next week with temperatures on a downward trend
through the week as well.

The cold front will finally push south of the region late Thursdayinto
Friday as Canadian high pressure moves in behind it. This will
bring a cooler and drier airmass to the area for the end of the
week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Upper level ridge in firm control across the area which has kept
the main weather and aviation hazards away from the region
recently. Only fly in ointment late tonight towards morning may be
some MVFR visibilities. Dew points have increased into the upper
60s. We will have a fairly light wind overnight with a clear sky.
Went prevailing 4 miles at BBG and a tempo group at both SGF/JLN
for a few hours towards sunrise.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KEAX 040503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Temperatures have warmed quite a bit across the area on Thursday
afternoon as southerly winds have picked up, bringing good
warm/moist air into the area. Heat indices have peaked in the middle
to upper 90s making for an uncomfortable afternoon. Given the
continued influence of the mid to upper level ridge through the rest
of the week and into the weekend, expect at least a few more days of
this uncomfortably warm/moist weather. With the mid level ridge
solidly in place expect the late week and weekend period to be
rather dry across the forecast area, with the lack of any real
synoptic or mesoscale focus for ascent.

The pattern will undergo a pretty dramatic change for the first part
of next week as the mid level ridge gradually breaks down, allowing
for SW flow aloft to move in, followed by eventual zonal flow
through the middle part of next week. Initial chances for rain will
likely form across the northwestern part of the CWA (NW MO) Sunday
night into Monday morning as a broad trough drops into the area. The
surface pattern indicates a surface ridge forming over the northern
plains, dipping into the area. This would likely serve as a focus
for showery activity for the Sunday night and Monday morning time
period. By Monday into Tuesday a surface trough will move into the
southern plains, which will bring a warm front back into the area
along with some mid level ascent, associated with the aforementioned
broad trough. These concurrent features will likely bring the best
chances for rain over that period, with the new forecast going with
"likely" PoPs for the Tuesday night and Wednesday period. By the
middle to latter part of next week, a surface front will drag
through the area, probably keeping rain chances going through at
least the middle part of the week, tapering off perhaps in to the
Wednesday night through Thursday night period as a more continental
air mass takes over. After a couple cooler days return flow
commences late next week, which might reintroduce more rain chances
in the Day 7+ time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period; may see some occasional
wind gusts during the afternoon before speeds relax in the evening.
Chances for precipitation impacting terminals much lower tonight than
previous nights. Periods of high-level clouds will move across the
area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair



000
FXUS63 KEAX 040503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Temperatures have warmed quite a bit across the area on Thursday
afternoon as southerly winds have picked up, bringing good
warm/moist air into the area. Heat indices have peaked in the middle
to upper 90s making for an uncomfortable afternoon. Given the
continued influence of the mid to upper level ridge through the rest
of the week and into the weekend, expect at least a few more days of
this uncomfortably warm/moist weather. With the mid level ridge
solidly in place expect the late week and weekend period to be
rather dry across the forecast area, with the lack of any real
synoptic or mesoscale focus for ascent.

The pattern will undergo a pretty dramatic change for the first part
of next week as the mid level ridge gradually breaks down, allowing
for SW flow aloft to move in, followed by eventual zonal flow
through the middle part of next week. Initial chances for rain will
likely form across the northwestern part of the CWA (NW MO) Sunday
night into Monday morning as a broad trough drops into the area. The
surface pattern indicates a surface ridge forming over the northern
plains, dipping into the area. This would likely serve as a focus
for showery activity for the Sunday night and Monday morning time
period. By Monday into Tuesday a surface trough will move into the
southern plains, which will bring a warm front back into the area
along with some mid level ascent, associated with the aforementioned
broad trough. These concurrent features will likely bring the best
chances for rain over that period, with the new forecast going with
"likely" PoPs for the Tuesday night and Wednesday period. By the
middle to latter part of next week, a surface front will drag
through the area, probably keeping rain chances going through at
least the middle part of the week, tapering off perhaps in to the
Wednesday night through Thursday night period as a more continental
air mass takes over. After a couple cooler days return flow
commences late next week, which might reintroduce more rain chances
in the Day 7+ time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period; may see some occasional
wind gusts during the afternoon before speeds relax in the evening.
Chances for precipitation impacting terminals much lower tonight than
previous nights. Periods of high-level clouds will move across the
area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair



000
FXUS63 KEAX 040503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Temperatures have warmed quite a bit across the area on Thursday
afternoon as southerly winds have picked up, bringing good
warm/moist air into the area. Heat indices have peaked in the middle
to upper 90s making for an uncomfortable afternoon. Given the
continued influence of the mid to upper level ridge through the rest
of the week and into the weekend, expect at least a few more days of
this uncomfortably warm/moist weather. With the mid level ridge
solidly in place expect the late week and weekend period to be
rather dry across the forecast area, with the lack of any real
synoptic or mesoscale focus for ascent.

The pattern will undergo a pretty dramatic change for the first part
of next week as the mid level ridge gradually breaks down, allowing
for SW flow aloft to move in, followed by eventual zonal flow
through the middle part of next week. Initial chances for rain will
likely form across the northwestern part of the CWA (NW MO) Sunday
night into Monday morning as a broad trough drops into the area. The
surface pattern indicates a surface ridge forming over the northern
plains, dipping into the area. This would likely serve as a focus
for showery activity for the Sunday night and Monday morning time
period. By Monday into Tuesday a surface trough will move into the
southern plains, which will bring a warm front back into the area
along with some mid level ascent, associated with the aforementioned
broad trough. These concurrent features will likely bring the best
chances for rain over that period, with the new forecast going with
"likely" PoPs for the Tuesday night and Wednesday period. By the
middle to latter part of next week, a surface front will drag
through the area, probably keeping rain chances going through at
least the middle part of the week, tapering off perhaps in to the
Wednesday night through Thursday night period as a more continental
air mass takes over. After a couple cooler days return flow
commences late next week, which might reintroduce more rain chances
in the Day 7+ time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period; may see some occasional
wind gusts during the afternoon before speeds relax in the evening.
Chances for precipitation impacting terminals much lower tonight than
previous nights. Periods of high-level clouds will move across the
area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KSGF 040432
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was another warm and dry day over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.

Summertime high pressure was established across much of the
nation`s mid section keeping conditions rather calm.

For tonight, humid and warm weather is expected with lows creeping
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Friday, not much changes from today with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A hot weekend is on tap for the Ozarks. With little to no
precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower
90s in nearly all locations. With dew points creeping into the
upper 60s, heat indices will increase into the middle 90s both
Saturday and Sunday.

A major pattern change will take shape for next work week,
creating active weather in terms of thunderstorm chances.

The summertime high breaks down followed by a frontal system that
will stall out across middle America. This feature will be a focus
for thunderstorms much of the week, and could be positioned across
southern or central Missouri Monday evening through Wednesday.

With increased shear, there is a shot for a couple rounds of
strong to severe storms during this Monday evening through
Wednesday time window.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF blow the front south of the Ozarks for
next Thursday and beyond, bringing cooler temperatures and drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Upper level ridge in firm control across the area which has kept
the main weather and aviation hazards away from the region
recently. Only fly in ointment late tonight towards morning may be
some MVFR visibilities. Dew points have increased into the upper
60s. We will have a fairly light wind overnight with a clear sky.
Went prevailing 4 miles at BBG and a tempo group at both SGF/JLN
for a few hours towards sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 040432
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was another warm and dry day over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.

Summertime high pressure was established across much of the
nation`s mid section keeping conditions rather calm.

For tonight, humid and warm weather is expected with lows creeping
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Friday, not much changes from today with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A hot weekend is on tap for the Ozarks. With little to no
precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower
90s in nearly all locations. With dew points creeping into the
upper 60s, heat indices will increase into the middle 90s both
Saturday and Sunday.

A major pattern change will take shape for next work week,
creating active weather in terms of thunderstorm chances.

The summertime high breaks down followed by a frontal system that
will stall out across middle America. This feature will be a focus
for thunderstorms much of the week, and could be positioned across
southern or central Missouri Monday evening through Wednesday.

With increased shear, there is a shot for a couple rounds of
strong to severe storms during this Monday evening through
Wednesday time window.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF blow the front south of the Ozarks for
next Thursday and beyond, bringing cooler temperatures and drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Upper level ridge in firm control across the area which has kept
the main weather and aviation hazards away from the region
recently. Only fly in ointment late tonight towards morning may be
some MVFR visibilities. Dew points have increased into the upper
60s. We will have a fairly light wind overnight with a clear sky.
Went prevailing 4 miles at BBG and a tempo group at both SGF/JLN
for a few hours towards sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 040432
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was another warm and dry day over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.

Summertime high pressure was established across much of the
nation`s mid section keeping conditions rather calm.

For tonight, humid and warm weather is expected with lows creeping
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Friday, not much changes from today with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A hot weekend is on tap for the Ozarks. With little to no
precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower
90s in nearly all locations. With dew points creeping into the
upper 60s, heat indices will increase into the middle 90s both
Saturday and Sunday.

A major pattern change will take shape for next work week,
creating active weather in terms of thunderstorm chances.

The summertime high breaks down followed by a frontal system that
will stall out across middle America. This feature will be a focus
for thunderstorms much of the week, and could be positioned across
southern or central Missouri Monday evening through Wednesday.

With increased shear, there is a shot for a couple rounds of
strong to severe storms during this Monday evening through
Wednesday time window.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF blow the front south of the Ozarks for
next Thursday and beyond, bringing cooler temperatures and drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Upper level ridge in firm control across the area which has kept
the main weather and aviation hazards away from the region
recently. Only fly in ointment late tonight towards morning may be
some MVFR visibilities. Dew points have increased into the upper
60s. We will have a fairly light wind overnight with a clear sky.
Went prevailing 4 miles at BBG and a tempo group at both SGF/JLN
for a few hours towards sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 040432
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was another warm and dry day over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.

Summertime high pressure was established across much of the
nation`s mid section keeping conditions rather calm.

For tonight, humid and warm weather is expected with lows creeping
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Friday, not much changes from today with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A hot weekend is on tap for the Ozarks. With little to no
precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower
90s in nearly all locations. With dew points creeping into the
upper 60s, heat indices will increase into the middle 90s both
Saturday and Sunday.

A major pattern change will take shape for next work week,
creating active weather in terms of thunderstorm chances.

The summertime high breaks down followed by a frontal system that
will stall out across middle America. This feature will be a focus
for thunderstorms much of the week, and could be positioned across
southern or central Missouri Monday evening through Wednesday.

With increased shear, there is a shot for a couple rounds of
strong to severe storms during this Monday evening through
Wednesday time window.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF blow the front south of the Ozarks for
next Thursday and beyond, bringing cooler temperatures and drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Upper level ridge in firm control across the area which has kept
the main weather and aviation hazards away from the region
recently. Only fly in ointment late tonight towards morning may be
some MVFR visibilities. Dew points have increased into the upper
60s. We will have a fairly light wind overnight with a clear sky.
Went prevailing 4 miles at BBG and a tempo group at both SGF/JLN
for a few hours towards sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KLSX 040422
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 040422
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 040422
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 040422
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 040422
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1122 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley will control
the weather into the weekend. Dry, VFR with light a southerly
wind. SUS has the best potential for fog with persistence the best
forecast.

Specifics for KSTL: Continued dry, VFR with a light southerly
wind.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KSGF 032253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was another warm and dry day over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.

Summertime high pressure was established across much of the
nation`s mid section keeping conditions rather calm.

For tonight, humid and warm weather is expected with lows creeping
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Friday, not much changes from today with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A hot weekend is on tap for the Ozarks. With little to no
precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower
90s in nearly all locations. With dew points creeping into the
upper 60s, heat indices will increase into the middle 90s both
Saturday and Sunday.

A major pattern change will take shape for next work week,
creating active weather in terms of thunderstorm chances.

The summertime high breaks down followed by a frontal system that
will stall out across middle America. This feature will be a focus
for thunderstorms much of the week, and could be positioned across
southern or central Missouri Monday evening through Wednesday.

With increased shear, there is a shot for a couple rounds of
strong to severe storms during this Monday evening through
Wednesday time window.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF blow the front south of the Ozarks for
next Thursday and beyond, bringing cooler temperatures and drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 0551 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Not much going on locally and expecting VFR conditions through the
period with upper level ridge axis overhead. Convection should
remain to our west. Surface winds will remain southerly through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 032253
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was another warm and dry day over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.

Summertime high pressure was established across much of the
nation`s mid section keeping conditions rather calm.

For tonight, humid and warm weather is expected with lows creeping
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Friday, not much changes from today with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A hot weekend is on tap for the Ozarks. With little to no
precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower
90s in nearly all locations. With dew points creeping into the
upper 60s, heat indices will increase into the middle 90s both
Saturday and Sunday.

A major pattern change will take shape for next work week,
creating active weather in terms of thunderstorm chances.

The summertime high breaks down followed by a frontal system that
will stall out across middle America. This feature will be a focus
for thunderstorms much of the week, and could be positioned across
southern or central Missouri Monday evening through Wednesday.

With increased shear, there is a shot for a couple rounds of
strong to severe storms during this Monday evening through
Wednesday time window.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF blow the front south of the Ozarks for
next Thursday and beyond, bringing cooler temperatures and drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 0551 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Not much going on locally and expecting VFR conditions through the
period with upper level ridge axis overhead. Convection should
remain to our west. Surface winds will remain southerly through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KLSX 032235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
535 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

At the surface, high pressure centered over the wester Ohio Valley
will maintain control of the weather. Dry, VFR weather with a
southerly wind. Will put some fog in for SUS, primarly since they
had it last night: persistence wins.

Specifics for KSTL: little change to the forecast. Dry, southerly
wind, VFR. Some cumulus for the afternoon.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 032235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
535 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

At the surface, high pressure centered over the wester Ohio Valley
will maintain control of the weather. Dry, VFR weather with a
southerly wind. Will put some fog in for SUS, primarly since they
had it last night: persistence wins.

Specifics for KSTL: little change to the forecast. Dry, southerly
wind, VFR. Some cumulus for the afternoon.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 032059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
359 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Temperatures have warmed quite a bit across the area on Thursday
afternoon as southerly winds have picked up, bringing good
warm/moist air into the area. Heat indices have peaked in the middle
to upper 90s making for an uncomfortable afternoon. Given the
continued influence of the mid to upper level ridge through the rest
of the week and into the weekend, expect at least a few more days of
this uncomfortably warm/moist weather. With the mid level ridge
solidly in place expect the late week and weekend period to be
rather dry across the forecast area, with the lack of any real
synoptic or mesoscale focus for ascent.

The pattern will undergo a pretty dramatic change for the first part
of next week as the mid level ridge gradually breaks down, allowing
for SW flow aloft to move in, followed by eventual zonal flow
through the middle part of next week. Initial chances for rain will
likely form across the northwestern part of the CWA (NW MO) Sunday
night into Monday morning as a broad trough drops into the area. The
surface pattern indicates a surface ridge forming over the northern
plains, dipping into the area. This would likely serve as a focus
for showery activity for the Sunday night and Monday morning time
period. By Monday into Tuesday a surface trough will move into the
southern plains, which will bring a warm front back into the area
along with some mid level ascent, associated with the aforementioned
broad trough. These concurrent features will likely bring the best
chances for rain over that period, with the new forecast going with
"likely" PoPs for the Tuesday night and Wednesday period. By the
middle to latter part of next week, a surface front will drag
through the area, probably keeping rain chances going through at
least the middle part of the week, tapering off perhaps in to the
Wednesday night through Thursday night period as a more continental
air mass takes over. After a couple cooler days return flow
commences late next week, which might reintroduce more rain chances
in the Day 7+ time period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Little change to the ongoing aviation discussion. Backed off on wind
gusts for today, but introduced some higher wind around mid morning
on Friday. Otherwise VFR conditions anticipated for remainder of the
forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KEAX 032059
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
359 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Temperatures have warmed quite a bit across the area on Thursday
afternoon as southerly winds have picked up, bringing good
warm/moist air into the area. Heat indices have peaked in the middle
to upper 90s making for an uncomfortable afternoon. Given the
continued influence of the mid to upper level ridge through the rest
of the week and into the weekend, expect at least a few more days of
this uncomfortably warm/moist weather. With the mid level ridge
solidly in place expect the late week and weekend period to be
rather dry across the forecast area, with the lack of any real
synoptic or mesoscale focus for ascent.

The pattern will undergo a pretty dramatic change for the first part
of next week as the mid level ridge gradually breaks down, allowing
for SW flow aloft to move in, followed by eventual zonal flow
through the middle part of next week. Initial chances for rain will
likely form across the northwestern part of the CWA (NW MO) Sunday
night into Monday morning as a broad trough drops into the area. The
surface pattern indicates a surface ridge forming over the northern
plains, dipping into the area. This would likely serve as a focus
for showery activity for the Sunday night and Monday morning time
period. By Monday into Tuesday a surface trough will move into the
southern plains, which will bring a warm front back into the area
along with some mid level ascent, associated with the aforementioned
broad trough. These concurrent features will likely bring the best
chances for rain over that period, with the new forecast going with
"likely" PoPs for the Tuesday night and Wednesday period. By the
middle to latter part of next week, a surface front will drag
through the area, probably keeping rain chances going through at
least the middle part of the week, tapering off perhaps in to the
Wednesday night through Thursday night period as a more continental
air mass takes over. After a couple cooler days return flow
commences late next week, which might reintroduce more rain chances
in the Day 7+ time period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Little change to the ongoing aviation discussion. Backed off on wind
gusts for today, but introduced some higher wind around mid morning
on Friday. Otherwise VFR conditions anticipated for remainder of the
forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton




000
FXUS63 KLSX 032019
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 032019
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
319 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 031927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was another warm and dry day over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.

Summertime high pressure was established across much of the
nation`s mid section keeping conditions rather calm.

For tonight, humid and warm weather is expected with lows creeping
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Friday, not much changes from today with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A hot weekend is on tap for the Ozarks. With little to no
precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower
90s in nearly all locations. With dew points creeping into the
upper 60s, heat indices will increase into the middle 90s both
Saturday and Sunday.

A major pattern change will take shape for next work week,
creating active weather in terms of thunderstorm chances.

The summertime high breaks down followed by a frontal system that
will stall out across middle America. This feature will be a focus
for thunderstorms much of the week, and could be positioned across
southern or central Missouri Monday evening through Wednesday.

With increased shear, there is a shot for a couple rounds of
strong to severe storms during this Monday evening through
Wednesday time window.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF blow the front south of the Ozarks for
next Thursday and beyond, bringing cooler temperatures and drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAF: VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Friday morning. South to southeasterly
winds will occur with winds of 6 to 10kt occurring during the day
light hours.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise




000
FXUS63 KSGF 031927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was another warm and dry day over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.

Summertime high pressure was established across much of the
nation`s mid section keeping conditions rather calm.

For tonight, humid and warm weather is expected with lows creeping
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Friday, not much changes from today with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A hot weekend is on tap for the Ozarks. With little to no
precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower
90s in nearly all locations. With dew points creeping into the
upper 60s, heat indices will increase into the middle 90s both
Saturday and Sunday.

A major pattern change will take shape for next work week,
creating active weather in terms of thunderstorm chances.

The summertime high breaks down followed by a frontal system that
will stall out across middle America. This feature will be a focus
for thunderstorms much of the week, and could be positioned across
southern or central Missouri Monday evening through Wednesday.

With increased shear, there is a shot for a couple rounds of
strong to severe storms during this Monday evening through
Wednesday time window.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF blow the front south of the Ozarks for
next Thursday and beyond, bringing cooler temperatures and drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAF: VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Friday morning. South to southeasterly
winds will occur with winds of 6 to 10kt occurring during the day
light hours.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise




000
FXUS63 KSGF 031927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was another warm and dry day over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.

Summertime high pressure was established across much of the
nation`s mid section keeping conditions rather calm.

For tonight, humid and warm weather is expected with lows creeping
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Friday, not much changes from today with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A hot weekend is on tap for the Ozarks. With little to no
precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower
90s in nearly all locations. With dew points creeping into the
upper 60s, heat indices will increase into the middle 90s both
Saturday and Sunday.

A major pattern change will take shape for next work week,
creating active weather in terms of thunderstorm chances.

The summertime high breaks down followed by a frontal system that
will stall out across middle America. This feature will be a focus
for thunderstorms much of the week, and could be positioned across
southern or central Missouri Monday evening through Wednesday.

With increased shear, there is a shot for a couple rounds of
strong to severe storms during this Monday evening through
Wednesday time window.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF blow the front south of the Ozarks for
next Thursday and beyond, bringing cooler temperatures and drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAF: VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Friday morning. South to southeasterly
winds will occur with winds of 6 to 10kt occurring during the day
light hours.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise




000
FXUS63 KSGF 031927
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was another warm and dry day over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s, under sunny skies and southerly breezes.

Summertime high pressure was established across much of the
nation`s mid section keeping conditions rather calm.

For tonight, humid and warm weather is expected with lows creeping
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Friday, not much changes from today with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A hot weekend is on tap for the Ozarks. With little to no
precipitation chances, afternoon highs will warm into the lower
90s in nearly all locations. With dew points creeping into the
upper 60s, heat indices will increase into the middle 90s both
Saturday and Sunday.

A major pattern change will take shape for next work week,
creating active weather in terms of thunderstorm chances.

The summertime high breaks down followed by a frontal system that
will stall out across middle America. This feature will be a focus
for thunderstorms much of the week, and could be positioned across
southern or central Missouri Monday evening through Wednesday.

With increased shear, there is a shot for a couple rounds of
strong to severe storms during this Monday evening through
Wednesday time window.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF blow the front south of the Ozarks for
next Thursday and beyond, bringing cooler temperatures and drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAF: VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Friday morning. South to southeasterly
winds will occur with winds of 6 to 10kt occurring during the day
light hours.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise




000
FXUS63 KEAX 031739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion
of the CWA. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310K surface
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a
upper level trough that comes on shore over the west coast Friday
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will
force a cold front across the Plains states Sunday. A few showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the
northwestern CWA as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into the Canadian Plains leaving the area in
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have
periods of chance POPs in the forecast Monday through Wednesday
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Little change to the ongoing aviation discussion. Backed off on wind
gusts for today, but introduced some higher wind around mid morning
on Friday. Otherwise VFR conditions anticipated for remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Leighton



000
FXUS63 KSGF 031720
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAF: VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Friday morning. South to southeasterly
winds will occur with winds of 6 to 10kt occurring during the day
light hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise




000
FXUS63 KSGF 031720
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1220 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAF: VFR conditions are expected
this afternoon through Friday morning. South to southeasterly
winds will occur with winds of 6 to 10kt occurring during the day
light hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise



000
FXUS63 KLSX 031717
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031717
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031717
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031717
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031717
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 031717
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions, dry wx, and S-SW surface winds will prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. Once again, we could see isolated
SHRA/TSRA for a brief period this afternoon but probs are much too
low for any TAF mention. Also looking at persistence being favored
for any VSBY reductions at some sites for late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR, dry, with S-SW surface winds.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031657
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 031657
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 031657
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 031657
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 031657
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks to it for this
afternoon. As with previous days, there remains a very low chance
for an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm but probabilities
remain low enough to preclude mention.

Otherwise, plenty of sunshine with max temps in the lower 90s,
with mid 90s in the STL metro area, closely following persistence.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KSGF 031206
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 0704 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Another day of quiet weather and good flying conditions will occur
across the Ozarks. Generally light south to southwesterly surface
winds and VFR flight conditions are on tap for the 24 hour
forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch



000
FXUS63 KSGF 031206
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 0704 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Another day of quiet weather and good flying conditions will occur
across the Ozarks. Generally light south to southwesterly surface
winds and VFR flight conditions are on tap for the 24 hour
forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch



000
FXUS63 KSGF 031206
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 0704 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Another day of quiet weather and good flying conditions will occur
across the Ozarks. Generally light south to southwesterly surface
winds and VFR flight conditions are on tap for the 24 hour
forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch



000
FXUS63 KSGF 031206
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 0704 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Another day of quiet weather and good flying conditions will occur
across the Ozarks. Generally light south to southwesterly surface
winds and VFR flight conditions are on tap for the 24 hour
forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch



000
FXUS63 KSGF 031206
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 0704 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

Another day of quiet weather and good flying conditions will occur
across the Ozarks. Generally light south to southwesterly surface
winds and VFR flight conditions are on tap for the 24 hour
forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 031145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 031145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 031145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Mid cloud deck (with bases aoa 10kft) and a few sprinkles are drifting
southeast across the region this morning. Radar indicates some of
this rain may effect KCOU next hour or so, but since precip is so
light no vsby restriction is expected. Otherwise, weather trends
today should be similar to those of yesterday, with high based
morning clouds giving way to scattered CU around midday, with this
diurnally driven cloudiness dissipating as we head into the early
evening hours. Did include some late night fog in the tafs for the
low lying locations of KSUS and KCPS.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period, with clouds aoa 5kft and south-southwest winds aob 10kts.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 031113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion
of the CWA. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310K surface
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a
upper level trough that comes on shore over the west coast Friday
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will
force a cold front across the Plains states Sunday. A few showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the
northwestern CWA as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into the Canadian Plains leaving the area in
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have
periods of chance POPs in the forecast Monday through Wednesday
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds
expected today. There will be the chance for a light shower at STJ
thru 14Z however, no cig/vis restrictions are expected. Winds out of
the south this morning btn 5-10kts will increase to 10-15kts with
gusts to 20kts this afternoon before dmshg again this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KEAX 031113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion
of the CWA. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310K surface
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a
upper level trough that comes on shore over the west coast Friday
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will
force a cold front across the Plains states Sunday. A few showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the
northwestern CWA as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into the Canadian Plains leaving the area in
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have
periods of chance POPs in the forecast Monday through Wednesday
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds
expected today. There will be the chance for a light shower at STJ
thru 14Z however, no cig/vis restrictions are expected. Winds out of
the south this morning btn 5-10kts will increase to 10-15kts with
gusts to 20kts this afternoon before dmshg again this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73



000
FXUS63 KEAX 031113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion
of the CWA. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310K surface
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a
upper level trough that comes on shore over the west coast Friday
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will
force a cold front across the Plains states Sunday. A few showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the
northwestern CWA as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into the Canadian Plains leaving the area in
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have
periods of chance POPs in the forecast Monday through Wednesday
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds
expected today. There will be the chance for a light shower at STJ
thru 14Z however, no cig/vis restrictions are expected. Winds out of
the south this morning btn 5-10kts will increase to 10-15kts with
gusts to 20kts this afternoon before dmshg again this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73



000
FXUS63 KEAX 031113
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion
of the CWA. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310K surface
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a
upper level trough that comes on shore over the west coast Friday
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will
force a cold front across the Plains states Sunday. A few showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the
northwestern CWA as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into the Canadian Plains leaving the area in
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have
periods of chance POPs in the forecast Monday through Wednesday
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds
expected today. There will be the chance for a light shower at STJ
thru 14Z however, no cig/vis restrictions are expected. Winds out of
the south this morning btn 5-10kts will increase to 10-15kts with
gusts to 20kts this afternoon before dmshg again this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Stagnant weather pattern will persist at least through Sunday as the
upper level ridge remains locked in over the center of the country.
The trof currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east across
the Rockies into the northern Plains by late Sunday causing
cyclogenesis over the Dakotas.  Resulting cold front plows southeast
into Iowa by Monday.  As a result, the temperature and precip
forecast becomes a little tricky Monday through Wednesday.  While
Monday may be a repeat of Sunday with respect to temperatures,
medium range ensemble guidance trends pretty sharply cooler into the
low to mid 80s on Tuesday, even though we`re still in the warm
sector with the front hanging back across Iowa.  Upper 70s is being
advertised by guidance across northeast Missouri with low to mid 80s
further south on Wednesday as the front finally dives southeast into
our CWFA.  While I do think mid to high chance for thunderstorms as
indicated by guidance is appropriate for Monday through
Wednesday...not sure about the temperature forecast.  There isn`t
any airmass change until the front pushes through, and the low level
thermal ridge is still over our region with 850mb temps in excess of
+20C.  Low to mid 80s just feels too cool to me until the front
moves through...regardless of the precip chances.  If I was
forecasting in a vacuum, I`d keep temperatures at least 5 degrees
warmer than guidance; however, have kept the forecast temperatures
close to the ensemble guidance to maintain consistency with
neighboring offices.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 030817
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion
of the CWA. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310K surface
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a
upper level trough that comes on shore over the west coast Friday
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will
force a cold front across the Plains states Sunday. A few showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the
northwestern CWA as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into the Canadian Plains leaving the area in
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have
periods of chance POPs in the forecast Monday through Wednesday
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as a
building ridge continues to dominate the pattern for the next few
days. A few models have hinted at overnight precipiation over NW
Missouri. At this point, thinking this will not be a factor with
the ridge in place, coupled with dry air within the lower levels.
Southerly winds will increase Thursday afternoon with gusts peaking
just over 20kts at times.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 030817
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion
of the CWA. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310K surface
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a
upper level trough that comes on shore over the west coast Friday
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will
force a cold front across the Plains states Sunday. A few showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the
northwestern CWA as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into the Canadian Plains leaving the area in
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have
periods of chance POPs in the forecast Monday through Wednesday
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as a
building ridge continues to dominate the pattern for the next few
days. A few models have hinted at overnight precipiation over NW
Missouri. At this point, thinking this will not be a factor with
the ridge in place, coupled with dry air within the lower levels.
Southerly winds will increase Thursday afternoon with gusts peaking
just over 20kts at times.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 030817
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion
of the CWA. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310K surface
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a
upper level trough that comes on shore over the west coast Friday
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will
force a cold front across the Plains states Sunday. A few showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the
northwestern CWA as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into the Canadian Plains leaving the area in
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have
periods of chance POPs in the forecast Monday through Wednesday
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as a
building ridge continues to dominate the pattern for the next few
days. A few models have hinted at overnight precipiation over NW
Missouri. At this point, thinking this will not be a factor with
the ridge in place, coupled with dry air within the lower levels.
Southerly winds will increase Thursday afternoon with gusts peaking
just over 20kts at times.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 030817
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Main concern in the short term will revolve around showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorms this morning. Early this morning
an expansive deck of accus is covering most of the Missouri portion
of the CWA. Weak isentropic lift is evident of the 310K surface
which is allowing a few showers to develop across portions of
central Missouri and northern Missouri this morning. We may see a
brief uptick in coverage this morning however, the isentropic lift
looks to weaken just after sunrise. As such, storms should diminish
shortly thereafter. Otherwise, expect conditions to dry out today as
an upper level ridge axis builds over the area. This ridge axis will
remain over the area through Saturday keeping conditions warm and
dry. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Saturday.

Sunday we will begin to see a shift in the upper level pattern as a
upper level trough that comes on shore over the west coast Friday
night begins to pull out into the northern High Plains. This will
force a cold front across the Plains states Sunday. A few showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front may affect the
northwestern CWA as early as late Sunday afternoon. However, models
have in come into better agreement that storms will hold off until
Sunday night as the cold front moves into the area. The cold front
is then expected to stall across the area on Monday as the upper
level trough moves into the Canadian Plains leaving the area in
quasi-zonal flow aloft. With no push on the front, and several
shortwaves expected on zonal flow during the early to middle part of
the week, several rounds of storms will be possible. As such, have
periods of chance POPs in the forecast Monday through Wednesday
night. With significant cloud cover and showers expected during the
early part of the week, temperatures will be much more seasonable
and perhaps even below normal as highs by Wednesday are expected to
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as a
building ridge continues to dominate the pattern for the next few
days. A few models have hinted at overnight precipiation over NW
Missouri. At this point, thinking this will not be a factor with
the ridge in place, coupled with dry air within the lower levels.
Southerly winds will increase Thursday afternoon with gusts peaking
just over 20kts at times.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KLSX 030814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 030740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Even with a calm wind
at BBG, similar to last night, expecting dew point depression to
remain to high for fog to develop. Overall maintain a south to
south-southwest surface wind generally 15 kts or lower.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 030740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Even with a calm wind
at BBG, similar to last night, expecting dew point depression to
remain to high for fog to develop. Overall maintain a south to
south-southwest surface wind generally 15 kts or lower.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 030740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Even with a calm wind
at BBG, similar to last night, expecting dew point depression to
remain to high for fog to develop. Overall maintain a south to
south-southwest surface wind generally 15 kts or lower.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 030740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Even with a calm wind
at BBG, similar to last night, expecting dew point depression to
remain to high for fog to develop. Overall maintain a south to
south-southwest surface wind generally 15 kts or lower.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 030740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

A large upper level ridge over the central U.S. will remain in
place today with high temperatures generally within a degree or
two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0215 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

The upper ridge will remain in place through Sat as a high
amplitude pattern remains in place with a strong storm system
along the west coast. There are some signals for isolated
afternoon pulse convection over nw Ar/far sw MO Fri and Sat and
may have slightly higher (but still very small) rain chances in
that area. Any precip will be short lived and the exception rather
than the rule.

A strong shortwave will lift ene across the Rockies and into
ND and then southern Manitoba Sunday-Sunday night. A trailing cold
front will move into the Midwest extending across IA into central
KS by 12z/7am Monday morning. Weakening storms along this front
are expected to move into cwfa late Sunday night into Monday as
the front stalls/weakens over or just nw of the area. Some
semblance of additional diurnally driven convection will then be
possible Mon afternoon/evening. Trends have been to increase rain
chances for the late Sunday night/Mon time frame.

With the stalled front nearby Mon night into Tue will continue the
mention of rain/tstms. Another shortwave is expected to move east
into the Plains Tue night/Wed with continued chances for storms.
Overall it looks like an active storm period. Some chances for
stronger storms are expected but hard to pin down timing wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Even with a calm wind
at BBG, similar to last night, expecting dew point depression to
remain to high for fog to develop. Overall maintain a south to
south-southwest surface wind generally 15 kts or lower.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030447
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTH CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF A 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE
PREVIOUS MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
EVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ON THE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE LOCATED JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST NIGHT...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 030447
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTH CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF A 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE
PREVIOUS MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
EVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ON THE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE LOCATED JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST NIGHT...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 030446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Even with a calm wind
at BBG, similar to last night, expecting dew point depression to
remain to high for fog to develop. Overall maintain a south to
south-southwest surface wind generally 15 kts or lower.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 030446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Even with a calm wind
at BBG, similar to last night, expecting dew point depression to
remain to high for fog to develop. Overall maintain a south to
south-southwest surface wind generally 15 kts or lower.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 030446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Even with a calm wind
at BBG, similar to last night, expecting dew point depression to
remain to high for fog to develop. Overall maintain a south to
south-southwest surface wind generally 15 kts or lower.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 030446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Even with a calm wind
at BBG, similar to last night, expecting dew point depression to
remain to high for fog to develop. Overall maintain a south to
south-southwest surface wind generally 15 kts or lower.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KEAX 030437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as a
building ridge continues to dominate the pattern for the next few
days. A few models have hinted at overnight precipiation over NW
Missouri. At this point, thinking this will not be a factor with
the ridge in place, coupled with dry air within the lower levels.
Southerly winds will increase Thursday afternoon with gusts peaking
just over 20kts at times.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 030437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as a
building ridge continues to dominate the pattern for the next few
days. A few models have hinted at overnight precipiation over NW
Missouri. At this point, thinking this will not be a factor with
the ridge in place, coupled with dry air within the lower levels.
Southerly winds will increase Thursday afternoon with gusts peaking
just over 20kts at times.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 030437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as a
building ridge continues to dominate the pattern for the next few
days. A few models have hinted at overnight precipiation over NW
Missouri. At this point, thinking this will not be a factor with
the ridge in place, coupled with dry air within the lower levels.
Southerly winds will increase Thursday afternoon with gusts peaking
just over 20kts at times.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030214
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTH CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF A 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE
PREVIOUS MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
EVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ON THE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE LOCATED JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST NIGHT...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 030214
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
914 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO
AND SOUTH CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF A 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE
PREVIOUS MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION.
EVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ON THE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE LOCATED JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST NIGHT...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of the
overnight period. Between 10-13z all terminals except KSTL have
the possibility of a short period of fog/br reducing the
visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions will persist
on Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will previal throughout the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 022305
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected as a building ridge will maintain
persistent conditions through the next few days. A few models have
hinted at light precipitation overnight for NW Missouri. Not too
concerned with this potential at this point given weak forcing and
dry air in place in the lower levels. Otherwise, gusty winds will
resume out of the south beginning Thursday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 022305
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected as a building ridge will maintain
persistent conditions through the next few days. A few models have
hinted at light precipitation overnight for NW Missouri. Not too
concerned with this potential at this point given weak forcing and
dry air in place in the lower levels. Otherwise, gusty winds will
resume out of the south beginning Thursday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 022305
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected as a building ridge will maintain
persistent conditions through the next few days. A few models have
hinted at light precipitation overnight for NW Missouri. Not too
concerned with this potential at this point given weak forcing and
dry air in place in the lower levels. Otherwise, gusty winds will
resume out of the south beginning Thursday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 022305
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected as a building ridge will maintain
persistent conditions through the next few days. A few models have
hinted at light precipitation overnight for NW Missouri. Not too
concerned with this potential at this point given weak forcing and
dry air in place in the lower levels. Otherwise, gusty winds will
resume out of the south beginning Thursday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KSGF 022304
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 0603 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Not much in the way of aviation hazards for the 00z TAF period.
High pressure aloft will be in control across the area with a
south to southwest surface wind. VFR conditions expected through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 022304
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 0603 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Not much in the way of aviation hazards for the 00z TAF period.
High pressure aloft will be in control across the area with a
south to southwest surface wind. VFR conditions expected through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 022304
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 0603 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Not much in the way of aviation hazards for the 00z TAF period.
High pressure aloft will be in control across the area with a
south to southwest surface wind. VFR conditions expected through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 022304
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 0603 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Not much in the way of aviation hazards for the 00z TAF period.
High pressure aloft will be in control across the area with a
south to southwest surface wind. VFR conditions expected through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 022304
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 0603 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Not much in the way of aviation hazards for the 00z TAF period.
High pressure aloft will be in control across the area with a
south to southwest surface wind. VFR conditions expected through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 022304
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 0603 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Not much in the way of aviation hazards for the 00z TAF period.
High pressure aloft will be in control across the area with a
south to southwest surface wind. VFR conditions expected through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KEAX 021957
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

With precipitation dissipating over the area, there should be no more
impacts to visibility or ceilings. So VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast. Winds may increase later this afternoon and
diminish some overnight. Winds should be stronger and gustier by
tomorrow afternoon with winds mainly from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 021957
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

With precipitation dissipating over the area, there should be no more
impacts to visibility or ceilings. So VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast. Winds may increase later this afternoon and
diminish some overnight. Winds should be stronger and gustier by
tomorrow afternoon with winds mainly from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 021957
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

With precipitation dissipating over the area, there should be no more
impacts to visibility or ceilings. So VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast. Winds may increase later this afternoon and
diminish some overnight. Winds should be stronger and gustier by
tomorrow afternoon with winds mainly from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 021957
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

With precipitation dissipating over the area, there should be no more
impacts to visibility or ceilings. So VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast. Winds may increase later this afternoon and
diminish some overnight. Winds should be stronger and gustier by
tomorrow afternoon with winds mainly from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 021957
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.

The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region.  That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by  a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

With precipitation dissipating over the area, there should be no more
impacts to visibility or ceilings. So VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast. Winds may increase later this afternoon and
diminish some overnight. Winds should be stronger and gustier by
tomorrow afternoon with winds mainly from the south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KSGF 021932
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Warm and Humid Late Summer Weather to Continue...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Fair weather high pressure was in control over southern Missouri,
with mostly clear skies and light southerly breezes observed.
These conditions will continue through tonight, and through the
next several days.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer



000
FXUS63 KSGF 021932
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Warm and Humid Late Summer Weather to Continue...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Fair weather high pressure was in control over southern Missouri,
with mostly clear skies and light southerly breezes observed.
These conditions will continue through tonight, and through the
next several days.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer



000
FXUS63 KSGF 021932
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Warm and Humid Late Summer Weather to Continue...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Fair weather high pressure was in control over southern Missouri,
with mostly clear skies and light southerly breezes observed.
These conditions will continue through tonight, and through the
next several days.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer



000
FXUS63 KSGF 021932
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Warm and Humid Late Summer Weather to Continue...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Another warm and humid day prevailed across the region Wednesday. Afternoon
cumulus had developed and cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
across the eastern Ozarks. Any convection will diminish with
sunset.

The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into Thursday. This will ridge will actually amplify across the
region in response to an upper level trough moving into the west
coast. Temperatures will again be slightly above normal.

Forecast confidence is high through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0230 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

The weather pattern will change little into the weekend as the
upper ridge maintains it`s grip on our weather. An isolated storm
cannot be ruled out especially Sunday when deeper moisture makes
a return, but most locations will remain dry through the weekend.

The upper pattern undergo a transition to a more zonal flow early
next week as the upper trough transitioning to the northeast
across the northern tier of states. The flattening ridge will
allow a front to drop southward into the area by Monday and
Tuesday. This front may meander across the region through much of
next week resulting in a period of more active weather.

Forecast confidence is high through weekend with details yet to be
determined early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Fair weather high pressure was in control over southern Missouri,
with mostly clear skies and light southerly breezes observed.
These conditions will continue through tonight, and through the
next several days.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer



000
FXUS63 KLSX 021912
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
212 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 021912
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
212 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRADDLING THE MO-IA BORDER.
AN EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE THERE REMAINS A RATHER THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL, WITH A DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FOR AREAS S
OF I-70 IN MO AND SE OF I-55 IN IL. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MAY SEE A LIMITED ISOLATED TSRA EVENT ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH IT BEING VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO KICK ANYTHING OFF OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES: MID 60S
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF
STL CITY, WITH NEAR 70 MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 021750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SAME BASIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS.  A SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT STILL STRETCHES FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS
RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THESE STORMS WON`T MAKE IT INTO OUR CWFA THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.  SIGNALS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE WEAKER IN THE
GUIDANCE THAN THEY WERE FOR YESTERDAY, SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING
THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO BEGIN SHIFTING THE PATTERN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BY BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
BRINGING US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 021750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SAME BASIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS.  A SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT STILL STRETCHES FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS
RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THESE STORMS WON`T MAKE IT INTO OUR CWFA THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.  SIGNALS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE WEAKER IN THE
GUIDANCE THAN THEY WERE FOR YESTERDAY, SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING
THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO BEGIN SHIFTING THE PATTERN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BY BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
BRINGING US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 021750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SAME BASIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS.  A SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT STILL STRETCHES FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS
RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THESE STORMS WON`T MAKE IT INTO OUR CWFA THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.  SIGNALS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE WEAKER IN THE
GUIDANCE THAN THEY WERE FOR YESTERDAY, SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING
THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO BEGIN SHIFTING THE PATTERN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BY BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
BRINGING US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 021734
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

The main concern in the short term will revolve around morning
thunderstorms and the possible affects on temperatures today. The
aforementioned thunderstorms have developed in an area of isentropic
ascent which will weaken through the mid morning hours with showers
diminishing. It is possible an additional half an inch to one inch
could fall across northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern
Kansas where these storms have developed. There will be additional
cloud cover that will exist over the northwestern CWA through the
morning hours however, skies should clear this afternoon and
temperatures should quickly warm. Highs across the CWA today will
range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The remainder of the short term continues to look warm and dry as a
upper level ridge builds over the area. The ridge axis will reside
over the area on Thursday and Friday keeping conditions dry and
allowing highs to rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. The ridge
will begin to weaken on Saturday as a upper level trough digs into
the west coast and moves into the intermountain west. Conditions,
however, should remain dry and warm on Saturday with highs remaining
in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Sunday, the upper level trough will move into the northern High
Plains forcing a cold front into the Plains. Warm air advection out
ahead of the front will keep temperatures in the upper 80s and lower
90s despite an increase in cloud cover. Sunday night the upper
trough moves into the northern Plains and the cold front will
approach the area with thunderstorms moving into the area from the
west. This marks the beginning of an active weather pattern across
the area. By Monday, the upper level trough lifts northeastward into
Canada allowing the cold front to stall across the CWA. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
middle of the work week as several upper level shortwaves move
through the area sparking convection along the stalled front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

With precipitation dissipating over the area, there should be no more
impacts to visibility or ceilings. So VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast. Winds may increase later this afternoon and
diminish some overnight. Winds should be stronger and gustier by
tomorrow afternoon with winds mainly from the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KSGF 021658
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0220 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

No big changes to the overall forecast. The upper level shear axis
that helped focus isolated afternoon convection yesterday remains,
but has weakened and pushed south and east slightly. Signals for
shower/tstm development don`t look as good today. A shortwave
moving through the upper Midwest looks to be too far north to
affect our area. Went close to persistence for forecast highs,
within a degree or two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 0220 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Still expect an upper level ridge to build east-northeast into
our region Thu downstream from an impressive shortwave moving
into the west coast. The ridge looks to remain in place through
Sunday. High temperatures will probably edge up a bit with low 90s
being more common area wide.

Eventually as the western shortwave/storm moves ene into the
Dakotas by Sunday night, the upper ridge breaks down somewhat
with some indications of a decaying storm complex trying to move
southeast into eastern KS/MO late Sunday night into Mon.

Beyond Mon into the middle of next week it does look like the
subtropical ridge gets suppressed with upper level westerlies
dipping southward into the central Plains and U.S. Midwest. This
should allow a sfc front to ease southeast into the area with
increased chances for periodic thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Fair weather high pressure was in control over southern Missouri,
with mostly clear skies and light southerly breezes observed.
These conditions will continue through tonight, and through the
next several days.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer




000
FXUS63 KSGF 021658
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0220 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

No big changes to the overall forecast. The upper level shear axis
that helped focus isolated afternoon convection yesterday remains,
but has weakened and pushed south and east slightly. Signals for
shower/tstm development don`t look as good today. A shortwave
moving through the upper Midwest looks to be too far north to
affect our area. Went close to persistence for forecast highs,
within a degree or two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 0220 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Still expect an upper level ridge to build east-northeast into
our region Thu downstream from an impressive shortwave moving
into the west coast. The ridge looks to remain in place through
Sunday. High temperatures will probably edge up a bit with low 90s
being more common area wide.

Eventually as the western shortwave/storm moves ene into the
Dakotas by Sunday night, the upper ridge breaks down somewhat
with some indications of a decaying storm complex trying to move
southeast into eastern KS/MO late Sunday night into Mon.

Beyond Mon into the middle of next week it does look like the
subtropical ridge gets suppressed with upper level westerlies
dipping southward into the central Plains and U.S. Midwest. This
should allow a sfc front to ease southeast into the area with
increased chances for periodic thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Fair weather high pressure was in control over southern Missouri,
with mostly clear skies and light southerly breezes observed.
These conditions will continue through tonight, and through the
next several days.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer




000
FXUS63 KSGF 021658
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0220 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

No big changes to the overall forecast. The upper level shear axis
that helped focus isolated afternoon convection yesterday remains,
but has weakened and pushed south and east slightly. Signals for
shower/tstm development don`t look as good today. A shortwave
moving through the upper Midwest looks to be too far north to
affect our area. Went close to persistence for forecast highs,
within a degree or two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 0220 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Still expect an upper level ridge to build east-northeast into
our region Thu downstream from an impressive shortwave moving
into the west coast. The ridge looks to remain in place through
Sunday. High temperatures will probably edge up a bit with low 90s
being more common area wide.

Eventually as the western shortwave/storm moves ene into the
Dakotas by Sunday night, the upper ridge breaks down somewhat
with some indications of a decaying storm complex trying to move
southeast into eastern KS/MO late Sunday night into Mon.

Beyond Mon into the middle of next week it does look like the
subtropical ridge gets suppressed with upper level westerlies
dipping southward into the central Plains and U.S. Midwest. This
should allow a sfc front to ease southeast into the area with
increased chances for periodic thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Fair weather high pressure was in control over southern Missouri,
with mostly clear skies and light southerly breezes observed.
These conditions will continue through tonight, and through the
next several days.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer



000
FXUS63 KSGF 021658
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0220 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

No big changes to the overall forecast. The upper level shear axis
that helped focus isolated afternoon convection yesterday remains,
but has weakened and pushed south and east slightly. Signals for
shower/tstm development don`t look as good today. A shortwave
moving through the upper Midwest looks to be too far north to
affect our area. Went close to persistence for forecast highs,
within a degree or two of yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 0220 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

Still expect an upper level ridge to build east-northeast into
our region Thu downstream from an impressive shortwave moving
into the west coast. The ridge looks to remain in place through
Sunday. High temperatures will probably edge up a bit with low 90s
being more common area wide.

Eventually as the western shortwave/storm moves ene into the
Dakotas by Sunday night, the upper ridge breaks down somewhat
with some indications of a decaying storm complex trying to move
southeast into eastern KS/MO late Sunday night into Mon.

Beyond Mon into the middle of next week it does look like the
subtropical ridge gets suppressed with upper level westerlies
dipping southward into the central Plains and U.S. Midwest. This
should allow a sfc front to ease southeast into the area with
increased chances for periodic thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Fair weather high pressure was in control over southern Missouri,
with mostly clear skies and light southerly breezes observed.
These conditions will continue through tonight, and through the
next several days.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer



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