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000
FXUS63 KLSX 252341
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
641 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are moving northeast across parts of
eastern Missouri this afternoon on the nose of a warm front.  Areal
coverage of storms has increased fairly significantly just southwest
for the St. Louis Metro area in the last 60-90 minutes...intensity is
also increased...though storms all look to be sub-severe.  Had
doubts earlier about the areal coverage of the storms that the HRRR
was forecasting, but it looks to have done ok this afternoon.  Think
this is likely due to the pool of 2500-3000 MLCAPE due to pooling
dewpoints along the front southwest of STL.  The storms to the
southwest should continue moving to the northeast for the rest of
the afternoon...not sure how well they`re going to hang together as
they do though.  There was one storm over Warren county that blew
itself out about 30 mins ago and is little more than a shower.  This
may be the fate for much of the convection over Franklin and Jefferson
county this evening...which is why I did not go with higher PoPs to
the northeast.  Regardless, storms should weaken and dissipate this
evening with little left by 02-03Z.

Attention turns to the approaching cold front late tonight.
Guidance is printing out precip along and ahead of the front...but
convection allowing models are pretty stingy with moving any storms
into the area.  Given the climatologically unfavorable time of day
and lack of a strong low level jet blowing into the low level
baroclinic zone, think the CAMs have it right so have backed off
PoPs for late tonight and Sunday morning.  Still keeping some flavor
of slight to mid level chance going through 18Z Sunday.  Kept 40-50
PoPs unchanged for Sunday afternoon as the front moves into the
area.  Daytime heating along with convergence along the front will
allow for greater areal coverage.

Carney

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

(Sunday Night - Monday)

The surface cold front continues to drop thru our region Sunday
evening, expected to begin the period near the I-70 corridor in IL
and I-44 corridor in MO.  Highest PoPs will be from this anticipated
frontal position and southeastward.  However, it looks like we
cannot end rain chances necessarily with frontal passage, with
various models indicating an upper level disturbance hanging back
and potential for a late night MCS--should it form--of thrusting
some additional rain northward of the front as well.  With these
factors in play, have lingered low PoPs behind the front to just N
of the I-70 corridor for later Sunday night and, to a lesser degree,
Monday daytime for parts of southeast MO.  Otherwise, look for
slightly above average temps for Sunday night mins and Monday maxes,
with the more significant effect of frontal passage being lower
humidities.

(Tuesday - Next Saturday)

A second, more significant, cold front will drop thru Monday night
and actually deliver a cooler shot of air to our region to dominate
much of the middle of next week.  This should result in a few days
of below average temps of daytime maxes in the 70s and low 80s and
mostly dry wx.  Otherwise, NW flow aloft will prevail during this
period.

There has been a signal for a potential MCS in NW flow aloft for
late Wednesday into early Thursday but the latest indications are
for this feature to edge our area to the west and southwest versus a
direct hit and have backed off PoPs to climo levels for most areas.

A warmup/recovery is slated for late week and into next weekend,
with a frontal boundary trying to edge back into our region during
this time.  Along with the moisture return, it appears the daily
chances for thunderstorms will return and have gone with near climo
values of 30% for most areas.

TES
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms to diminish by 02z Sunday, so
just kept VCTS mention at KUIN and metro area tafs til then.
Otherwise, dry vfr conditions with south winds veering to the west
when the cold front slides through on Sunday. Complex of storms
possibly to develop along cold front and drop into KUIN by 10z
Sunday. Will see this diminish before redeveloping late morning
early afternoon for tafs along I-70 corridor. Timing and coverage
still hard to pin down, so will only have VCTS mention in tafs for
now.

Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms to diminish by 02z Sunday, so
just kept VCTS mention at KSTL til then. Otherwise, dry vfr
conditions with south winds veering to the west when the cold
front slides through by 17z Sunday. Storms to redevelop between
17z Sunday and 02z Monday, so added VCTS/vcsh mention in taf for
now.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX



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000
FXUS63 KSGF 252323
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A weak shortwave is kicking off some scattered shower/tstms over
eastern MO, otherwise it looks quiet with warm temperatures. Dew
points have mixed down a bit with heat index values in the 90s at
2 pm.

A trailing cold front extending south from low pressure along the
Canadian/North Dakota border will approach the region late
tonight and Sunday, eventually laying out as a weak w-e oriented
boundary over central/southern MO/KS late in the day Sunday. This
should focus some convection, possibly as some remnant weak
activity early in the day, and then later in the mid/late
afternoon and evening with daytime heating/instability. The
stronger convection potential will be late in the day with storm
clusters and pulse storms possible. Similar to a couple of days
ago, damaging wind will be the main hazard with stronger storms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Sunday`s front will drop off to the south and weaken, but
additional convection more focused over the southern cwfa will
again be possible Monday. A more substantial cold front will push
into the area Monday night as a drier/cool air mass moves into the
Midwest. Tue/Wed should be relatively quiet and less humid.

A northwest flow pattern will develop with an upper ridge building
out west. Shortwaves moving southeast from the Plains will bring
periodic chances for thunderstorms late Wed night-Saturday.
Mesoscale (small scale) features are problematic to time and place
so many days out, but the pattern does favor some active
convective weather at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected during this TAF period. Afternoon
cumulus will dissipate this evening leaving mostly clear skies and
light southwest winds overnight. Scattered showers and
thunderstorm chances return toward the end of this TAF period and
have not included them in this TAF.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Burchfield



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000
FXUS63 KEAX 252320
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 346 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

On the large-scale this afternoon...water vapor showing a nice
upper-level trough moving along the North Dakota/Saskatchewan
border...with an attended surface cold front stretching south
into the Central Plains. Out ahead of this feature...temps have
warmed into the middle 90s across the lower Missouri Vly...with
current heat index values ranging in the mid to upper 90s. Main
concerns going forward remain the likelihood of developing
convection during the evening and overnight hours...with potential
for localized heavy rainfall across northern portions of the fcst
area. For now...latest SPC mesoanalysis places better effective shear
values across the central Nebraska which with time...will slide east
into western and central Iowa as height falls spread east. From this
vantage point...best mid-level forcing looks to remain north of the
area and as a result...widespread severe will likely be hard to come
by across our region later today. That said however...cannot rule out
some stronger cells up across far northwestern and north-central
Missouri...and radar trends will most certainly have to be monitored.
Meanwhile...the atmosphere remains more than primed for efficient
rainfall production with PWAT values currently ranging between 1.8 -
2" across our area. Main limiting factor seen at this juncture
remains fairly poor forcing as mid-level energy remains north and
low-level flow ultimately becomes more and more parallel to the
incoming front overnight which should limit boundary layer convergence.
Regardless the trends will have to be monitored across north-central
Missouri where heavy rain occurred earlier this week. In any
event...weak convergence along with poor forcing aloft may limit the
areal scope of rainfall overnight however we can keep our fingers
crossed that some much needed rain occurs across our area.

Front to essentially stall across northern Missouri by Sunday morning
with fcst models in excellent agreement that we`ll see a resurgence
of convection during the late morning and afternoon hrs as
destabilization occurs. Models advertise better dynamics across the
area on Sunday as another yet/stronger mid-level wave approaches the
area. Again with precipitable water values remaining high...heavy
rainfall will remain a concern through Sunday evening. Weak wind
fields aloft should limit the overall severe wx threat...however a
few stronger cells with marginally severe hail and a strong wind
gust or two cannot be ruled out. Front lingers across the are Sunday
night right through Monday with convection potential gradually
sliding further and further south before the front finally clears our
area Monday night. This should allow for a reprieve in precip
chances along with cooler temps as high pressure noses in from the
north for midweek. Beyond this...northwest flow to redevelop over
the region as ridging again builds across the western U.S. This will
set the stage for cooler temps and renewed chances for precip as
several disturbances move across the region through the end of the
work week. With several individual systems expected...have
maintained chc pops right through next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Scattered thunderstorms currently over north central KS will begin to
build northeast into far northwest Missouri this evening, and could
then begin to push to the southeast and increase in coverage along a
southeastward moving cold front tonight. Storms look most probable at
KSTJ, and their chances of surviving decrease from north to south as
the front stalls across the region. Ceilings will be VFR, so primary
impact to aviation will be if storms can make it to any of the
terminals tonight. Winds will lessen and back slightly to the south
over the next few hours, then will veer just before frontal passage
tonight. Wind direction tomorrow will depend on where the front
eventually settles, but speeds should be light.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 252320
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 346 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

On the large-scale this afternoon...water vapor showing a nice
upper-level trough moving along the North Dakota/Saskatchewan
border...with an attended surface cold front stretching south
into the Central Plains. Out ahead of this feature...temps have
warmed into the middle 90s across the lower Missouri Vly...with
current heat index values ranging in the mid to upper 90s. Main
concerns going forward remain the likelihood of developing
convection during the evening and overnight hours...with potential
for localized heavy rainfall across northern portions of the fcst
area. For now...latest SPC mesoanalysis places better effective shear
values across the central Nebraska which with time...will slide east
into western and central Iowa as height falls spread east. From this
vantage point...best mid-level forcing looks to remain north of the
area and as a result...widespread severe will likely be hard to come
by across our region later today. That said however...cannot rule out
some stronger cells up across far northwestern and north-central
Missouri...and radar trends will most certainly have to be monitored.
Meanwhile...the atmosphere remains more than primed for efficient
rainfall production with PWAT values currently ranging between 1.8 -
2" across our area. Main limiting factor seen at this juncture
remains fairly poor forcing as mid-level energy remains north and
low-level flow ultimately becomes more and more parallel to the
incoming front overnight which should limit boundary layer convergence.
Regardless the trends will have to be monitored across north-central
Missouri where heavy rain occurred earlier this week. In any
event...weak convergence along with poor forcing aloft may limit the
areal scope of rainfall overnight however we can keep our fingers
crossed that some much needed rain occurs across our area.

Front to essentially stall across northern Missouri by Sunday morning
with fcst models in excellent agreement that we`ll see a resurgence
of convection during the late morning and afternoon hrs as
destabilization occurs. Models advertise better dynamics across the
area on Sunday as another yet/stronger mid-level wave approaches the
area. Again with precipitable water values remaining high...heavy
rainfall will remain a concern through Sunday evening. Weak wind
fields aloft should limit the overall severe wx threat...however a
few stronger cells with marginally severe hail and a strong wind
gust or two cannot be ruled out. Front lingers across the are Sunday
night right through Monday with convection potential gradually
sliding further and further south before the front finally clears our
area Monday night. This should allow for a reprieve in precip
chances along with cooler temps as high pressure noses in from the
north for midweek. Beyond this...northwest flow to redevelop over
the region as ridging again builds across the western U.S. This will
set the stage for cooler temps and renewed chances for precip as
several disturbances move across the region through the end of the
work week. With several individual systems expected...have
maintained chc pops right through next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Scattered thunderstorms currently over north central KS will begin to
build northeast into far northwest Missouri this evening, and could
then begin to push to the southeast and increase in coverage along a
southeastward moving cold front tonight. Storms look most probable at
KSTJ, and their chances of surviving decrease from north to south as
the front stalls across the region. Ceilings will be VFR, so primary
impact to aviation will be if storms can make it to any of the
terminals tonight. Winds will lessen and back slightly to the south
over the next few hours, then will veer just before frontal passage
tonight. Wind direction tomorrow will depend on where the front
eventually settles, but speeds should be light.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KLSX 252049
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are moving northeast across parts of
eastern Missouri this afternoon on the nose of a warm front.  Areal
coverage of storms has increased fairly significantly just southwest
for the St. Louis Metro area in the last 60-90 minutes...intensity is
also increased...though storms all look to be sub-severe.  Had
doubts earlier about the areal coverage of the storms that the HRRR
was forecasting, but it looks to have done ok this afternoon.  Think
this is likely due to the pool of 2500-3000 MLCAPE due to pooling
dewpoints along the front southwest of STL.  The storms to the
southwest should continue moving to the northeast for the rest of
the afternoon...not sure how well they`re going to hang together as
they do though.  There was one storm over Warren county that blew
itself out about 30 mins ago and is little more than a shower.  This
may be the fate for much of the convection over Franklin and Jefferson
county this evening...which is why I did not go with higher PoPs to
the northeast.  Regardless, storms should weaken and dissipate this
evening with little left by 02-03Z.

Attention turns to the approaching cold front late tonight.
Guidance is printing out precip along and ahead of the front...but
convection allowing models are pretty stingy with moving any storms
into the area.  Given the climatologically unfavorable time of day
and lack of a strong low level jet blowing into the low level
baroclinic zone, think the CAMs have it right so have backed off
PoPs for late tonight and Sunday morning.  Still keeping some flavor
of slight to mid level chance going through 18Z Sunday.  Kept 40-50
PoPs unchanged for Sunday afternoon as the front moves into the
area.  Daytime heating along with convergence along the front will
allow for greater areal coverage.

Carney

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

(Sunday Night - Monday)

The surface cold front continues to drop thru our region Sunday
evening, expected to begin the period near the I-70 corridor in IL
and I-44 corridor in MO.  Highest PoPs will be from this anticipated
frontal position and southeastward.  However, it looks like we
cannot end rain chances necessarily with frontal passage, with
various models indicating an upper level disturbance hanging back
and potential for a late night MCS--should it form--of thrusting
some additional rain northward of the front as well.  With these
factors in play, have lingered low PoPs behind the front to just N
of the I-70 corridor for later Sunday night and, to a lesser degree,
Monday daytime for parts of southeast MO.  Otherwise, look for
slightly above average temps for Sunday night mins and Monday maxes,
with the more significant effect of frontal passage being lower
humidities.

(Tuesday - Next Saturday)

A second, more significant, cold front will drop thru Monday night
and actually deliver a cooler shot of air to our region to dominate
much of the middle of next week.  This should result in a few days
of below average temps of daytime maxes in the 70s and low 80s and
mostly dry wx.  Otherwise, NW flow aloft will prevail during this
period.

There has been a signal for a potential MCS in NW flow aloft for
late Wednesday into early Thursday but the latest indications are
for this feature to edge our area to the west and southwest versus a
direct hit and have backed off PoPs to climo levels for most areas.

A warmup/recovery is slated for late week and into next weekend,
with a frontal boundary trying to edge back into our region during
this time.  Along with the moisture return, it appears the daily
chances for thunderstorms will return and have gone with near climo
values of 30% for most areas.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of
southeast Missouri will continue to develop and spread east-
northeast toward the Mississippi River this afternoon. Areal
coverage is questionable, but think 30-40 percent coverage is the
most likely. Some of the storms could be strong producing wind
gusts in excess of 30kts. Storms should dissipate pretty quickly
this evening with VFR conditions prevailing tonight. Next
significant weather will be late tonight as a cold front drifts
south toward the area. Think another round of scattered showers
and storms are likely as the front drift south through Sunday
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Primary concern is thunderstorm potential this afternoon. Best
chance for storms will be after 20Z with 30-40 percent coverage
likely in the STL Metro area. If I thought coverage would be
greater, I would have included TEMPO TS in the terminal...and
will monitor trends closely this afternoon in case a short-range
TEMPO is needed. Some storms in the Metro area could be fairly
strong with wind gusts in excess of 30kts. Should see storms
dissipate quickly this evening. VFR conditions will prevail
tonight with another chance of storms Sunday afternoon ahead of a
cold front.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 252046
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
346 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 346 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

On the large-scale this afternoon...water vapor showing a nice
upper-level trough moving along the North Dakota/Saskatchewan
border...with an attended surface cold front stretching south
into the Central Plains. Out ahead of this feature...temps have
warmed into the middle 90s across the lower Missouri Vly...with
current heat index values ranging in the mid to upper 90s. Main
concerns going forward remain the likelihood of developing
convection during the evening and overnight hours...with potential
for localized heavy rainfall across northern portions of the fcst
area. For now...latest SPC mesoanalysis places better effective shear
values across the central Nebraska which with time...will slide east
into western and central Iowa as height falls spread east. From this
vantage point...best mid-level forcing looks to remain north of the
area and as a result...widespread severe will likely be hard to come
by across our region later today. That said however...cannot rule out
some stronger cells up across far northwestern and north-central
Missouri...and radar trends will most certainly have to be monitored.
Meanwhile...the atmosphere remains more than primed for efficient
rainfall production with PWAT values currently ranging between 1.8 -
2" across our area. Main limiting factor seen at this juncture
remains fairly poor forcing as mid-level energy remains north and
low-level flow ultimately becomes more and more parallel to the
incoming front overnight which should limit boundary layer convergence.
Regardless the trends will have to be monitored across north-central
Missouri where heavy rain occurred earlier this week. In any
event...weak convergence along with poor forcing aloft may limit the
areal scope of rainfall overnight however we can keep our fingers
crossed that some much needed rain occurs across our area.

Front to essentially stall across northern Missouri by Sunday morning
with fcst models in excellent agreement that we`ll see a resurgence
of convection during the late morning and afternoon hrs as
destabilization occurs. Models advertise better dynamics across the
area on Sunday as another yet/stronger mid-level wave approaches the
area. Again with precipitable water values remaining high...heavy
rainfall will remain a concern through Sunday evening. Weak wind
fields aloft should limit the overall severe wx threat...however a
few stronger cells with marginally severe hail and a strong wind
gust or two cannot be ruled out. Front lingers across the are Sunday
night right through Monday with convection potential gradually
sliding further and further south before the front finally clears our
area Monday night. This should allow for a reprieve in precip
chances along with cooler temps as high pressure noses in from the
north for midweek. Beyond this...northwest flow to redevelop over
the region as ridging again builds across the western U.S. This will
set the stage for cooler temps and renewed chances for precip as
several disturbances move across the region through the end of the
work week. With several individual systems expected...have
maintained chc pops right through next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Main concerns with the 18z fcst package involve renewed chances for
convection overnight as a slow moving cold front descends across the
area. In comparison to earlier runs, today`s model runs have slowed
down the arrival of this feature with all pretty much suggesting
convection will develop after the 06z time frame and gradually push
south during the early morning hours. From this vantage point
however...the prevailing thought is much of this time frame will see
VFR conditions despite developing precipitation. As
such...introduced SHRA and VCTS mention at all sites during the
early morning with a continuation right through the conclusion of the
fcst as front stalls and additional convection develops after 12z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32




000
FXUS63 KEAX 252046
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
346 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 346 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

On the large-scale this afternoon...water vapor showing a nice
upper-level trough moving along the North Dakota/Saskatchewan
border...with an attended surface cold front stretching south
into the Central Plains. Out ahead of this feature...temps have
warmed into the middle 90s across the lower Missouri Vly...with
current heat index values ranging in the mid to upper 90s. Main
concerns going forward remain the likelihood of developing
convection during the evening and overnight hours...with potential
for localized heavy rainfall across northern portions of the fcst
area. For now...latest SPC mesoanalysis places better effective shear
values across the central Nebraska which with time...will slide east
into western and central Iowa as height falls spread east. From this
vantage point...best mid-level forcing looks to remain north of the
area and as a result...widespread severe will likely be hard to come
by across our region later today. That said however...cannot rule out
some stronger cells up across far northwestern and north-central
Missouri...and radar trends will most certainly have to be monitored.
Meanwhile...the atmosphere remains more than primed for efficient
rainfall production with PWAT values currently ranging between 1.8 -
2" across our area. Main limiting factor seen at this juncture
remains fairly poor forcing as mid-level energy remains north and
low-level flow ultimately becomes more and more parallel to the
incoming front overnight which should limit boundary layer convergence.
Regardless the trends will have to be monitored across north-central
Missouri where heavy rain occurred earlier this week. In any
event...weak convergence along with poor forcing aloft may limit the
areal scope of rainfall overnight however we can keep our fingers
crossed that some much needed rain occurs across our area.

Front to essentially stall across northern Missouri by Sunday morning
with fcst models in excellent agreement that we`ll see a resurgence
of convection during the late morning and afternoon hrs as
destabilization occurs. Models advertise better dynamics across the
area on Sunday as another yet/stronger mid-level wave approaches the
area. Again with precipitable water values remaining high...heavy
rainfall will remain a concern through Sunday evening. Weak wind
fields aloft should limit the overall severe wx threat...however a
few stronger cells with marginally severe hail and a strong wind
gust or two cannot be ruled out. Front lingers across the are Sunday
night right through Monday with convection potential gradually
sliding further and further south before the front finally clears our
area Monday night. This should allow for a reprieve in precip
chances along with cooler temps as high pressure noses in from the
north for midweek. Beyond this...northwest flow to redevelop over
the region as ridging again builds across the western U.S. This will
set the stage for cooler temps and renewed chances for precip as
several disturbances move across the region through the end of the
work week. With several individual systems expected...have
maintained chc pops right through next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Main concerns with the 18z fcst package involve renewed chances for
convection overnight as a slow moving cold front descends across the
area. In comparison to earlier runs, today`s model runs have slowed
down the arrival of this feature with all pretty much suggesting
convection will develop after the 06z time frame and gradually push
south during the early morning hours. From this vantage point
however...the prevailing thought is much of this time frame will see
VFR conditions despite developing precipitation. As
such...introduced SHRA and VCTS mention at all sites during the
early morning with a continuation right through the conclusion of the
fcst as front stalls and additional convection develops after 12z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32




000
FXUS63 KSGF 252019
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
319 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A weak shortwave is kicking off some scattered shower/tstms over
eastern MO, otherwise it looks quiet with warm temperatures. Dew
points have mixed down a bit with heat index values in the 90s at
2 pm.

A trailing cold front extending south from low pressure along the
Canadian/North Dakota border will approach the region late
tonight and Sunday, eventually laying out as a weak w-e oriented
boundary over central/southern MO/KS late in the day Sunday. This
should focus some convection, possibly as some remnant weak
activity early in the day, and then later in the mid/late
afternoon and evening with daytime heating/instability. The
stronger convection potential will be late in the day with storm
clusters and pulse storms possible. Similar to a couple of days
ago, damaging wind will be the main hazard with stronger storms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Sunday`s front will drop off to the south and weaken, but
additional convection more focused over the southern cwfa will
again be possible Monday. A more substantial cold front will push
into the area Monday night as a drier/cool air mass moves into the
Midwest. Tue/Wed should be relatively quiet and less humid.

A northwest flow pattern will develop with an upper ridge building
out west. Shortwaves moving southeast from the Plains will bring
periodic chances for thunderstorms late Wed night-Saturday.
Mesoscale (small scale) features are problematic to time and place
so many days out, but the pattern does favor some active
convective weather at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Mid level
CU development will continue through this afternoon, though any
precipitation should remain to the east of the terminals.
Otherwise, winds will be from the south to southwest. Thunderstorm
coverage is expected to increase Sunday afternoon...just beyond
this TAF cycle.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell




000
FXUS63 KEAX 251806
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
106 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Subtle warm front has lifted into central Missouri this morning where
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along this
feature. Some of this activity may persist for a few hours into the
morning, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected into this
afternoon as the area moves deeper into the warm sector. With a bit
of warm air advection this afternoon, temperatures will rise into the
lower to middle 90s across the forecast area. Veering surface winds
will allow the slightly drier air to the west to advect into the
area. Dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s this afternoon will
keep indices right around 100 degrees.

Cold front entering northern Nebraska will slowly drop southward
through the day, reaching northwest Missouri early Sunday morning.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of
the front across southeast Nebraska this afternoon and spread into
northern KS and northwest MO late this evening and overnight.
Moisture will be very high across these areas with precipitable water
values over 2 inches, which combined with weak steering winds could
lead to heavy rain in spots. Highest threat for strong storms and
heavy rain will generally be across areas northwest of a St. Joseph
to Bethany line through midnight or so. After this time, much of the
forcing along the front will weaken, so storms should decrease in
intensity as they drop south toward the Missouri River overnight into
early Sunday morning.

Cold front will slowly sag southward on Sunday, reaching the I-70
corridor by Sunday evening. Scattered storms will likely redevelop
along and ahead of this feature through the afternoon, some of which
could again produce locally heavy rainfall with precipitable water
values remaining near 2 inches. A slight increase in wind shear
Sunday afternoon could also support some isolated strong/severe
storms, although the potential is fairly high that clouds and
precipitation will cut back on the instability Sunday afternoon.

Front will sag south of the forecast area early Monday, keeping most
of the potential for storms focused across southern KS into the MO
Ozarks Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile low-level ridging building in
from the north will bring cooler and drier conditions by Tuesday,
when temperatures will only max out in the lower 80s with dewpoints
dropping into the 50s. This more comfortable airmass will persist
into the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile several disturbances
in northwest upper flow could bring several chances for rain to the
area as early as Wednesday and lasting into the weekend, although the
low-level ridging in place could keep the higher chances to the west
and southwest of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Main concerns with the 18z fcst package involve renewed chances for
convection overnight as a slow moving cold front descends across the
area. In comparison to earlier runs, today`s model runs have slowed
down the arrival of this feature with all pretty much suggesting
convection will develop after the 06z time frame and gradually push
south during the early morning hours. From this vantage point
however...the prevailing thought is much of this time frame will see
VFR conditions despite developing precipitation. As
such...introduced SHRA and VCTS mention at all sites during the
early morning with a continuation right through the conclusion of the
fcst as front stalls and additional convection develops after 12z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...32




000
FXUS63 KEAX 251806
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
106 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Subtle warm front has lifted into central Missouri this morning where
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along this
feature. Some of this activity may persist for a few hours into the
morning, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected into this
afternoon as the area moves deeper into the warm sector. With a bit
of warm air advection this afternoon, temperatures will rise into the
lower to middle 90s across the forecast area. Veering surface winds
will allow the slightly drier air to the west to advect into the
area. Dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s this afternoon will
keep indices right around 100 degrees.

Cold front entering northern Nebraska will slowly drop southward
through the day, reaching northwest Missouri early Sunday morning.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of
the front across southeast Nebraska this afternoon and spread into
northern KS and northwest MO late this evening and overnight.
Moisture will be very high across these areas with precipitable water
values over 2 inches, which combined with weak steering winds could
lead to heavy rain in spots. Highest threat for strong storms and
heavy rain will generally be across areas northwest of a St. Joseph
to Bethany line through midnight or so. After this time, much of the
forcing along the front will weaken, so storms should decrease in
intensity as they drop south toward the Missouri River overnight into
early Sunday morning.

Cold front will slowly sag southward on Sunday, reaching the I-70
corridor by Sunday evening. Scattered storms will likely redevelop
along and ahead of this feature through the afternoon, some of which
could again produce locally heavy rainfall with precipitable water
values remaining near 2 inches. A slight increase in wind shear
Sunday afternoon could also support some isolated strong/severe
storms, although the potential is fairly high that clouds and
precipitation will cut back on the instability Sunday afternoon.

Front will sag south of the forecast area early Monday, keeping most
of the potential for storms focused across southern KS into the MO
Ozarks Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile low-level ridging building in
from the north will bring cooler and drier conditions by Tuesday,
when temperatures will only max out in the lower 80s with dewpoints
dropping into the 50s. This more comfortable airmass will persist
into the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile several disturbances
in northwest upper flow could bring several chances for rain to the
area as early as Wednesday and lasting into the weekend, although the
low-level ridging in place could keep the higher chances to the west
and southwest of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Main concerns with the 18z fcst package involve renewed chances for
convection overnight as a slow moving cold front descends across the
area. In comparison to earlier runs, today`s model runs have slowed
down the arrival of this feature with all pretty much suggesting
convection will develop after the 06z time frame and gradually push
south during the early morning hours. From this vantage point
however...the prevailing thought is much of this time frame will see
VFR conditions despite developing precipitation. As
such...introduced SHRA and VCTS mention at all sites during the
early morning with a continuation right through the conclusion of the
fcst as front stalls and additional convection develops after 12z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...32




000
FXUS63 KLSX 251802
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
102 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast issue for today is convective trends and probabilities.
As usual with warm season QPF in the absence of significant forcing,
the deterministic models have rather varied solutions. The CAMS
are having issues as well and the hourly HRRRs seem to change with
each new run. A few spotty showers and storms have developed in
central MO on the cool side of a ill-defined warm front drapped
from SW NE across NE KS thru SW MO. These appear to be high-based
and are occuring within a region of weak moisture convergence
associated with a southwesterly LLJ and also ahead of a weak
elongated vort max. My initial thinking is we will continue to see
some of this spotty/scattered activity across central/eastern MO
through early morning and then it will dissipate. By early
afternoon however I am thinking a new round of scattered storms
will develop within the unstable air mass across eastern MO, in
response to the northeastward moving warm front and the meandering
vort max. The storms should continue to develop and shift eastward
through western IL during the afternoon attendant with the east-
northwest advancing warm front, moving out of the CWA by early
evening.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A progressive upper trof will move across the upper MS Valley
tonight and this will help push a cold front southward entering NW
MO by early Sunday morning. Extensive convection is expected to
span the cold front and with the LLJ veering to more westerly ahead
of the front, some of this activity will likely progress into
northeast MO in the early morning hours on Sunday. The cold front
and a pre-frontal trof will continue to advance slowly southward
during the day with heating contributing to an increasingly
unstable and uncapped air mass, and should be the focus for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Sunday
afternoon.

On Sunday night and Monday the focus for showers and storms will
shift to southern MO and southern IL as the front sinks southward,
and then as the initial cold front is reinforced by a stronger
cold front on Monday. Cooler and drier air will spread into the
region on Monday night and Tuesday as a formidable surface high
settles southward through the north central U.S. in response to
large scale amplification and an evolving upper trof across
eastern NOAM. This air mass will prevail thru Thursday as high
pressure continues to settle southward resulting in below average
temperatures. The latest guidance is beginning to suggest the
northwest flow short wave track may remain west of the area and
the previously anticipated threat of showers and thunderstorms
late Wednesday and Thursday may instead occur from the central
Plains into southwest MO. This is still 5+ days away so we won`t
be too quick to drop pops based on a single model cycle.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of
southeast Missouri will continue to develop and spread east-
northeast toward the Mississippi River this afternoon. Areal
coverage is questionable, but think 30-40 percent coverage is the
most likely. Some of the storms could be strong producing wind
gusts in excess of 30kts. Storms should dissipate pretty quickly
this evening with VFR conditions prevailing tonight. Next
significant weather will be late tonight as a cold front drifts
south toward the area. Think another round of scattered showers
and storms are likely as the front drift south through Sunday
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Primary concern is thunderstorm potential this afternoon. Best
chance for storms will be after 20Z with 30-40 percent coverage
likely in the STL Metro area. If I thought coverage would be
greater, I would have included TEMPO TS in the terminal...and
will monitor trends closely this afternoon in case a short-range
TEMPO is needed. Some storms in the Metro area could be fairly
strong with wind gusts in excess of 30kts. Should see storms
dissipate quickly this evening. VFR conditions will prevail
tonight with another chance of storms Sunday afternoon ahead of a
cold front.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 251802
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
102 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast issue for today is convective trends and probabilities.
As usual with warm season QPF in the absence of significant forcing,
the deterministic models have rather varied solutions. The CAMS
are having issues as well and the hourly HRRRs seem to change with
each new run. A few spotty showers and storms have developed in
central MO on the cool side of a ill-defined warm front drapped
from SW NE across NE KS thru SW MO. These appear to be high-based
and are occuring within a region of weak moisture convergence
associated with a southwesterly LLJ and also ahead of a weak
elongated vort max. My initial thinking is we will continue to see
some of this spotty/scattered activity across central/eastern MO
through early morning and then it will dissipate. By early
afternoon however I am thinking a new round of scattered storms
will develop within the unstable air mass across eastern MO, in
response to the northeastward moving warm front and the meandering
vort max. The storms should continue to develop and shift eastward
through western IL during the afternoon attendant with the east-
northwest advancing warm front, moving out of the CWA by early
evening.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A progressive upper trof will move across the upper MS Valley
tonight and this will help push a cold front southward entering NW
MO by early Sunday morning. Extensive convection is expected to
span the cold front and with the LLJ veering to more westerly ahead
of the front, some of this activity will likely progress into
northeast MO in the early morning hours on Sunday. The cold front
and a pre-frontal trof will continue to advance slowly southward
during the day with heating contributing to an increasingly
unstable and uncapped air mass, and should be the focus for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Sunday
afternoon.

On Sunday night and Monday the focus for showers and storms will
shift to southern MO and southern IL as the front sinks southward,
and then as the initial cold front is reinforced by a stronger
cold front on Monday. Cooler and drier air will spread into the
region on Monday night and Tuesday as a formidable surface high
settles southward through the north central U.S. in response to
large scale amplification and an evolving upper trof across
eastern NOAM. This air mass will prevail thru Thursday as high
pressure continues to settle southward resulting in below average
temperatures. The latest guidance is beginning to suggest the
northwest flow short wave track may remain west of the area and
the previously anticipated threat of showers and thunderstorms
late Wednesday and Thursday may instead occur from the central
Plains into southwest MO. This is still 5+ days away so we won`t
be too quick to drop pops based on a single model cycle.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of
southeast Missouri will continue to develop and spread east-
northeast toward the Mississippi River this afternoon. Areal
coverage is questionable, but think 30-40 percent coverage is the
most likely. Some of the storms could be strong producing wind
gusts in excess of 30kts. Storms should dissipate pretty quickly
this evening with VFR conditions prevailing tonight. Next
significant weather will be late tonight as a cold front drifts
south toward the area. Think another round of scattered showers
and storms are likely as the front drift south through Sunday
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Primary concern is thunderstorm potential this afternoon. Best
chance for storms will be after 20Z with 30-40 percent coverage
likely in the STL Metro area. If I thought coverage would be
greater, I would have included TEMPO TS in the terminal...and
will monitor trends closely this afternoon in case a short-range
TEMPO is needed. Some storms in the Metro area could be fairly
strong with wind gusts in excess of 30kts. Should see storms
dissipate quickly this evening. VFR conditions will prevail
tonight with another chance of storms Sunday afternoon ahead of a
cold front.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Heat and humidity will return today with temperatures climbing
into the lower 90s by the afternoon. A weak boundary continues to
slowly lift northward across the Ozarks. A few tiny isolated
showers...rumble of thunder are on the radar this morning. With
daytime heating and instability later today, could see a few more
widely scattered showers and isolated storms to develop over the
eastern Ozarks but most areas will remain dry. We should see more
sunshine also today with party cloudy skies. Heat index will be
from 95 to 100 degrees today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Another front will make a move towards the area on Sunday from the
northwest. There will be a better chance for scattered showers and
storms across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. There may
be an isolated strong to severe storm or two possible tomorrow
evening. The main threat will be wind gusts up to 50 mph and small
hail along with lightning.

The front slows down as it moves through on Monday. There will be
additional chances for showers and storms on Monday especially
over the southern Ozarks closer to the boundary as it moves
southward.

Northwest flow develops by Tuesday across the region. We will
actually experience some relief from the heat and humidity by
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs middle of next week will be in the
lower to middle 80s...maybe even some upper 70s for highs across
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Overnight temperatures
will be very refreshing in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The weather
looks to be dry for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. We will watch
for a possible MCS or organized convection developing over the
Central Plains and diving to the southeast late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Periodic storm chances return for the end
of next week. Temperatures will be seasonable end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Mid level
CU development will continue through this afternoon, though any
precipitation should remain to the east of the terminals.
Otherwise, winds will be from the south to southwest. Thunderstorm
coverage is expected to increase Sunday afternoon...just beyond
this TAF cycle.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell




000
FXUS63 KSGF 251725
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Heat and humidity will return today with temperatures climbing
into the lower 90s by the afternoon. A weak boundary continues to
slowly lift northward across the Ozarks. A few tiny isolated
showers...rumble of thunder are on the radar this morning. With
daytime heating and instability later today, could see a few more
widely scattered showers and isolated storms to develop over the
eastern Ozarks but most areas will remain dry. We should see more
sunshine also today with party cloudy skies. Heat index will be
from 95 to 100 degrees today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Another front will make a move towards the area on Sunday from the
northwest. There will be a better chance for scattered showers and
storms across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. There may
be an isolated strong to severe storm or two possible tomorrow
evening. The main threat will be wind gusts up to 50 mph and small
hail along with lightning.

The front slows down as it moves through on Monday. There will be
additional chances for showers and storms on Monday especially
over the southern Ozarks closer to the boundary as it moves
southward.

Northwest flow develops by Tuesday across the region. We will
actually experience some relief from the heat and humidity by
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs middle of next week will be in the
lower to middle 80s...maybe even some upper 70s for highs across
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Overnight temperatures
will be very refreshing in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The weather
looks to be dry for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. We will watch
for a possible MCS or organized convection developing over the
Central Plains and diving to the southeast late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Periodic storm chances return for the end
of next week. Temperatures will be seasonable end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Mid level
CU development will continue through this afternoon, though any
precipitation should remain to the east of the terminals.
Otherwise, winds will be from the south to southwest. Thunderstorm
coverage is expected to increase Sunday afternoon...just beyond
this TAF cycle.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell




000
FXUS63 KSGF 251247
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
747 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Heat and humidity will return today with temperatures climbing
into the lower 90s by the afternoon. A weak boundary continues to
slowly lift northward across the Ozarks. A few tiny isolated
showers...rumble of thunder are on the radar this morning. With
daytime heating and instability later today, could see a few more
widely scattered showers and isolated storms to develop over the
eastern Ozarks but most areas will remain dry. We should see more
sunshine also today with party cloudy skies. Heat index will be
from 95 to 100 degrees today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Another front will make a move towards the area on Sunday from the
northwest. There will be a better chance for scattered showers and
storms across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. There may
be an isolated strong to severe storm or two possible tomorrow
evening. The main threat will be wind gusts up to 50 mph and small
hail along with lightning.

The front slows down as it moves through on Monday. There will be
additional chances for showers and storms on Monday especially
over the southern Ozarks closer to the boundary as it moves
southward.

Northwest flow develops by Tuesday across the region. We will
actually experience some relief from the heat and humidity by
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs middle of next week will be in the
lower to middle 80s...maybe even some upper 70s for highs across
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Overnight temperatures
will be very refreshing in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The weather
looks to be dry for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. We will watch
for a possible MCS or organized convection developing over the
Central Plains and diving to the southeast late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Periodic storm chances return for the end
of next week. Temperatures will be seasonable end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today. A
southerly wind will persist. The development of isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be primarily east of the terminal sites
today. A better chance of storms will develop Sunday as a front
approaches from the north.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KSGF 251247
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
747 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Heat and humidity will return today with temperatures climbing
into the lower 90s by the afternoon. A weak boundary continues to
slowly lift northward across the Ozarks. A few tiny isolated
showers...rumble of thunder are on the radar this morning. With
daytime heating and instability later today, could see a few more
widely scattered showers and isolated storms to develop over the
eastern Ozarks but most areas will remain dry. We should see more
sunshine also today with party cloudy skies. Heat index will be
from 95 to 100 degrees today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Another front will make a move towards the area on Sunday from the
northwest. There will be a better chance for scattered showers and
storms across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. There may
be an isolated strong to severe storm or two possible tomorrow
evening. The main threat will be wind gusts up to 50 mph and small
hail along with lightning.

The front slows down as it moves through on Monday. There will be
additional chances for showers and storms on Monday especially
over the southern Ozarks closer to the boundary as it moves
southward.

Northwest flow develops by Tuesday across the region. We will
actually experience some relief from the heat and humidity by
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs middle of next week will be in the
lower to middle 80s...maybe even some upper 70s for highs across
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Overnight temperatures
will be very refreshing in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The weather
looks to be dry for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. We will watch
for a possible MCS or organized convection developing over the
Central Plains and diving to the southeast late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Periodic storm chances return for the end
of next week. Temperatures will be seasonable end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today. A
southerly wind will persist. The development of isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be primarily east of the terminal sites
today. A better chance of storms will develop Sunday as a front
approaches from the north.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KEAX 251119
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Subtle warm front has lifted into central Missouri this morning where
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along this
feature. Some of this activity may persist for a few hours into the
morning, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected into this
afternoon as the area moves deeper into the warm sector. With a bit
of warm air advection this afternoon, temperatures will rise into the
lower to middle 90s across the forecast area. Veering surface winds
will allow the slightly drier air to the west to advect into the
area. Dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s this afternoon will
keep indices right around 100 degrees.

Cold front entering northern Nebraska will slowly drop southward
through the day, reaching northwest Missouri early Sunday morning.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of
the front across southeast Nebraska this afternoon and spread into
northern KS and northwest MO late this evening and overnight.
Moisture will be very high across these areas with precipitable water
values over 2 inches, which combined with weak steering winds could
lead to heavy rain in spots. Highest threat for strong storms and
heavy rain will generally be across areas northwest of a St. Joseph
to Bethany line through midnight or so. After this time, much of the
forcing along the front will weaken, so storms should decrease in
intensity as they drop south toward the Missouri River overnight into
early Sunday morning.

Cold front will slowly sag southward on Sunday, reaching the I-70
corridor by Sunday evening. Scattered storms will likely redevelop
along and ahead of this feature through the afternoon, some of which
could again produce locally heavy rainfall with precipitable water
values remaining near 2 inches. A slight increase in wind shear
Sunday afternoon could also support some isolated strong/severe
storms, although the potential is fairly high that clouds and
precipitation will cut back on the instability Sunday afternoon.

Front will sag south of the forecast area early Monday, keeping most
of the potential for storms focused across southern KS into the MO
Ozarks Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile low-level ridging building in
from the north will bring cooler and drier conditions by Tuesday,
when temperatures will only max out in the lower 80s with dewpoints
dropping into the 50s. This more comfortable airmass will persist
into the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile several disturbances
in northwest upper flow could bring several chances for rain to the
area as early as Wednesday and lasting into the weekend, although the
low-level ridging in place could keep the higher chances to the west
and southwest of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Showers over KS/NE will lift north into eastern NE through the
morning while activity over central MO pushes east into eastern MO,
leaving most of the area dry for much of the day. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected to develop from northern KS into eastern
NE late this afternoon and slowly spread south into northwest MO
overnight, weakening as they approach the KC area late tonight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel




000
FXUS63 KEAX 251119
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Subtle warm front has lifted into central Missouri this morning where
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along this
feature. Some of this activity may persist for a few hours into the
morning, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected into this
afternoon as the area moves deeper into the warm sector. With a bit
of warm air advection this afternoon, temperatures will rise into the
lower to middle 90s across the forecast area. Veering surface winds
will allow the slightly drier air to the west to advect into the
area. Dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s this afternoon will
keep indices right around 100 degrees.

Cold front entering northern Nebraska will slowly drop southward
through the day, reaching northwest Missouri early Sunday morning.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of
the front across southeast Nebraska this afternoon and spread into
northern KS and northwest MO late this evening and overnight.
Moisture will be very high across these areas with precipitable water
values over 2 inches, which combined with weak steering winds could
lead to heavy rain in spots. Highest threat for strong storms and
heavy rain will generally be across areas northwest of a St. Joseph
to Bethany line through midnight or so. After this time, much of the
forcing along the front will weaken, so storms should decrease in
intensity as they drop south toward the Missouri River overnight into
early Sunday morning.

Cold front will slowly sag southward on Sunday, reaching the I-70
corridor by Sunday evening. Scattered storms will likely redevelop
along and ahead of this feature through the afternoon, some of which
could again produce locally heavy rainfall with precipitable water
values remaining near 2 inches. A slight increase in wind shear
Sunday afternoon could also support some isolated strong/severe
storms, although the potential is fairly high that clouds and
precipitation will cut back on the instability Sunday afternoon.

Front will sag south of the forecast area early Monday, keeping most
of the potential for storms focused across southern KS into the MO
Ozarks Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile low-level ridging building in
from the north will bring cooler and drier conditions by Tuesday,
when temperatures will only max out in the lower 80s with dewpoints
dropping into the 50s. This more comfortable airmass will persist
into the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile several disturbances
in northwest upper flow could bring several chances for rain to the
area as early as Wednesday and lasting into the weekend, although the
low-level ridging in place could keep the higher chances to the west
and southwest of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Showers over KS/NE will lift north into eastern NE through the
morning while activity over central MO pushes east into eastern MO,
leaving most of the area dry for much of the day. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected to develop from northern KS into eastern
NE late this afternoon and slowly spread south into northwest MO
overnight, weakening as they approach the KC area late tonight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel




000
FXUS63 KLSX 251104
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
604 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast issue for today is convective trends and probabilities.
As usual with warm season QPF in the absence of significant forcing,
the deterministic models have rather varied solutions. The CAMS
are having issues as well and the hourly HRRRs seem to change with
each new run. A few spotty showers and storms have developed in
central MO on the cool side of a ill-defined warm front drapped
from SW NE across NE KS thru SW MO. These appear to be high-based
and are occuring within a region of weak moisture convergence
associated with a southwesterly LLJ and also ahead of a weak
elongated vort max. My initial thinking is we will continue to see
some of this spotty/scattered activity across central/eastern MO
through early morning and then it will dissipate. By early
afternoon however I am thinking a new round of scattered storms
will develop within the unstable air mass across eastern MO, in
response to the northeastward moving warm front and the meandering
vort max. The storms should continue to develop and shift eastward
through western IL during the afternoon attendant with the east-
northwest advancing warm front, moving out of the CWA by early
evening.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A progressive upper trof will move across the upper MS Valley
tonight and this will help push a cold front southward entering NW
MO by early Sunday morning. Extensive convection is expected to
span the cold front and with the LLJ veering to more westerly ahead
of the front, some of this activity will likely progess into
northeast MO in the early morning hours on Sunday. The cold front
and a pre-frontal trof will continue to advance slowly southward
during the day with heating contributing to an increasingly
unstable and uncapped air mass, and should be the focus for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Sunday
afternoon.

On Sunday night and Monday the focus for showers and storms will
shift to southern MO and southern IL as the front sinks southward,
and then as the initial cold front is reinforced by a stronger
cold front on Monday. Cooler and drier air will spread into the
region on Monday night and Tuesday as a formidable surface high
settles southward through the north central U.S. in response to
large scale amplification and an evolving upper trof across
eastern NOAM. This air mass will prevail thru Thursday as high
pressure continues to settle southward resulting in below average
temperatures. The latest guidance is beginning to suggest the
northwest flow short wave track may remain west of the area and
the previously anticipated threat of showers and thunderstorms
late Wednesday and Thursday may instead occur from the central
Plains into southwest MO. This is still 5+ days away so we won`t
be too quick to drop pops based on a single model cycle.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed in advance of
the warm front which will move through the area. Thus have VCTS in
for UIN and COU. The effective front should be through COU by
midday so have them dry for the afternoon with more vcts for UIN.
While an isolated storm could pop up further south, have delayed
vcts for the STL area until the afternoon. Overnight should be
quiet until the cold front moves into northern MO Sunday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: An isolated shower or storm is possible this
am, but will hold off on the vcts until this afternoon when more
activity should begin developing, although it still should be
pretty scattered. Overnight should be dry. Any development with
the advancing cold front Sunday should hold off until the end of
this forecast period.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 251104
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
604 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast issue for today is convective trends and probabilities.
As usual with warm season QPF in the absence of significant forcing,
the deterministic models have rather varied solutions. The CAMS
are having issues as well and the hourly HRRRs seem to change with
each new run. A few spotty showers and storms have developed in
central MO on the cool side of a ill-defined warm front drapped
from SW NE across NE KS thru SW MO. These appear to be high-based
and are occuring within a region of weak moisture convergence
associated with a southwesterly LLJ and also ahead of a weak
elongated vort max. My initial thinking is we will continue to see
some of this spotty/scattered activity across central/eastern MO
through early morning and then it will dissipate. By early
afternoon however I am thinking a new round of scattered storms
will develop within the unstable air mass across eastern MO, in
response to the northeastward moving warm front and the meandering
vort max. The storms should continue to develop and shift eastward
through western IL during the afternoon attendant with the east-
northwest advancing warm front, moving out of the CWA by early
evening.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A progressive upper trof will move across the upper MS Valley
tonight and this will help push a cold front southward entering NW
MO by early Sunday morning. Extensive convection is expected to
span the cold front and with the LLJ veering to more westerly ahead
of the front, some of this activity will likely progess into
northeast MO in the early morning hours on Sunday. The cold front
and a pre-frontal trof will continue to advance slowly southward
during the day with heating contributing to an increasingly
unstable and uncapped air mass, and should be the focus for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Sunday
afternoon.

On Sunday night and Monday the focus for showers and storms will
shift to southern MO and southern IL as the front sinks southward,
and then as the initial cold front is reinforced by a stronger
cold front on Monday. Cooler and drier air will spread into the
region on Monday night and Tuesday as a formidable surface high
settles southward through the north central U.S. in response to
large scale amplification and an evolving upper trof across
eastern NOAM. This air mass will prevail thru Thursday as high
pressure continues to settle southward resulting in below average
temperatures. The latest guidance is beginning to suggest the
northwest flow short wave track may remain west of the area and
the previously anticipated threat of showers and thunderstorms
late Wednesday and Thursday may instead occur from the central
Plains into southwest MO. This is still 5+ days away so we won`t
be too quick to drop pops based on a single model cycle.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed in advance of
the warm front which will move through the area. Thus have VCTS in
for UIN and COU. The effective front should be through COU by
midday so have them dry for the afternoon with more vcts for UIN.
While an isolated storm could pop up further south, have delayed
vcts for the STL area until the afternoon. Overnight should be
quiet until the cold front moves into northern MO Sunday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: An isolated shower or storm is possible this
am, but will hold off on the vcts until this afternoon when more
activity should begin developing, although it still should be
pretty scattered. Overnight should be dry. Any development with
the advancing cold front Sunday should hold off until the end of
this forecast period.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 250832
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
332 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast issue for today is convective trends and probabilities.
As usual with warm season QPF in the absence of significant forcing,
the deterministic models have rather varied solutions. The CAMS
are having issues as well and the hourly HRRRs seem to change with
each new run. A few spotty showers and storms have developed in
central MO on the cool side of a ill-defined warm front drapped
from SW NE across NE KS thru SW MO. These appear to be high-based
and are occuring within a region of weak moisture convergence
associated with a southwesterly LLJ and also ahead of a weak
elongated vort max. My initial thinking is we will continue to see
some of this spotty/scattered activity across central/eastern MO
through early morning and then it will dissipate. By early
afternoon however I am thinking a new round of scattered storms
will develop within the unstable air mass across eastern MO, in
response to the northeastward moving warm front and the meandering
vort max. The storms should continue to develop and shift eastward
through western IL during the afternoon attendant with the east-
northwest advancing warm front, moving out of the CWA by early
evening.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A progressive upper trof will move across the upper MS Valley
tonight and this will help push a cold front southward entering NW
MO by early Sunday morning. Extensive convection is expected to
span the cold front and with the LLJ veering to more westerly ahead
of the front, some of this activity will likely progess into
northeast MO in the early morning hours on Sunday. The cold front
and a pre-frontal trof will continue to advance slowly southward
during the day with heating contributing to an increasingly
unstable and uncapped air mass, and should be the focus for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Sunday
afternoon.

On Sunday night and Monday the focus for showers and storms will
shift to southern MO and southern IL as the front sinks southward,
and then as the initial cold front is reinforced by a stronger
cold front on Monday. Cooler and drier air will spread into the
region on Monday night and Tuesday as a formidable surface high
settles southward through the north central U.S. in response to
large scale amplification and an evolving upper trof across
eastern NOAM. This air mass will prevail thru Thursday as high
pressure continues to settle southward resulting in below average
temperatures. The latest guidance is beginning to suggest the
northwest flow short wave track may remain west of the area and
the previously anticipated threat of showers and thunderstorms
late Wednesday and Thursday may instead occur from the central
Plains into southwest MO. This is still 5+ days away so we won`t
be too quick to drop pops based on a single model cycle.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

For the most part dry, VFR conditions to prevail through forecast
period. As warm front lifts northward through region will see
isolated/scattered storms develop Saturday afternoon. Kept VCTS
mention in metro area tafs. Otherwise, light southeast to south
winds to pickup from the south by mid morning.

Specifics for KSTL:
For the most part dry, VFR conditions to prevail through forecast
period. As warm front lifts northward through region will see
isolated/scattered storms develop Saturday afternoon, then
diminish after sunset. Kept VCTS mention in metro area tafs.
Otherwise, light southeast to south winds to pickup from the south
by 15z Saturday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 250832
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
332 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast issue for today is convective trends and probabilities.
As usual with warm season QPF in the absence of significant forcing,
the deterministic models have rather varied solutions. The CAMS
are having issues as well and the hourly HRRRs seem to change with
each new run. A few spotty showers and storms have developed in
central MO on the cool side of a ill-defined warm front drapped
from SW NE across NE KS thru SW MO. These appear to be high-based
and are occuring within a region of weak moisture convergence
associated with a southwesterly LLJ and also ahead of a weak
elongated vort max. My initial thinking is we will continue to see
some of this spotty/scattered activity across central/eastern MO
through early morning and then it will dissipate. By early
afternoon however I am thinking a new round of scattered storms
will develop within the unstable air mass across eastern MO, in
response to the northeastward moving warm front and the meandering
vort max. The storms should continue to develop and shift eastward
through western IL during the afternoon attendant with the east-
northwest advancing warm front, moving out of the CWA by early
evening.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A progressive upper trof will move across the upper MS Valley
tonight and this will help push a cold front southward entering NW
MO by early Sunday morning. Extensive convection is expected to
span the cold front and with the LLJ veering to more westerly ahead
of the front, some of this activity will likely progess into
northeast MO in the early morning hours on Sunday. The cold front
and a pre-frontal trof will continue to advance slowly southward
during the day with heating contributing to an increasingly
unstable and uncapped air mass, and should be the focus for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by Sunday
afternoon.

On Sunday night and Monday the focus for showers and storms will
shift to southern MO and southern IL as the front sinks southward,
and then as the initial cold front is reinforced by a stronger
cold front on Monday. Cooler and drier air will spread into the
region on Monday night and Tuesday as a formidable surface high
settles southward through the north central U.S. in response to
large scale amplification and an evolving upper trof across
eastern NOAM. This air mass will prevail thru Thursday as high
pressure continues to settle southward resulting in below average
temperatures. The latest guidance is beginning to suggest the
northwest flow short wave track may remain west of the area and
the previously anticipated threat of showers and thunderstorms
late Wednesday and Thursday may instead occur from the central
Plains into southwest MO. This is still 5+ days away so we won`t
be too quick to drop pops based on a single model cycle.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

For the most part dry, VFR conditions to prevail through forecast
period. As warm front lifts northward through region will see
isolated/scattered storms develop Saturday afternoon. Kept VCTS
mention in metro area tafs. Otherwise, light southeast to south
winds to pickup from the south by mid morning.

Specifics for KSTL:
For the most part dry, VFR conditions to prevail through forecast
period. As warm front lifts northward through region will see
isolated/scattered storms develop Saturday afternoon, then
diminish after sunset. Kept VCTS mention in metro area tafs.
Otherwise, light southeast to south winds to pickup from the south
by 15z Saturday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 250823
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Subtle warm front has lifted into central Missouri this morning where
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along this
feature. Some of this activity may persist for a few hours into the
morning, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected into this
afternoon as the area moves deeper into the warm sector. With a bit
of warm air advection this afternoon, temperatures will rise into the
lower to middle 90s across the forecast area. Veering surface winds
will allow the slightly drier air to the west to advect into the
area. Dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s this afternoon will
keep indices right around 100 degrees.

Cold front entering northern Nebraska will slowly drop southward
through the day, reaching northwest Missouri early Sunday morning.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of
the front across southeast Nebraska this afternoon and spread into
northern KS and northwest MO late this evening and overnight.
Moisture will be very high across these areas with precipitable water
values over 2 inches, which combined with weak steering winds could
lead to heavy rain in spots. Highest threat for strong storms and
heavy rain will generally be across areas northwest of a St. Joseph
to Bethany line through midnight or so. After this time, much of the
forcing along the front will weaken, so storms should decrease in
intensity as they drop south toward the Missouri River overnight into
early Sunday morning.

Cold front will slowly sag southward on Sunday, reaching the I-70
corridor by Sunday evening. Scattered storms will likely redevelop
along and ahead of this feature through the afternoon, some of which
could again produce locally heavy rainfall with precipitable water
values remaining near 2 inches. A slight increase in wind shear
Sunday afternoon could also support some isolated strong/severe
storms, although the potential is fairly high that clouds and
precipitation will cut back on the instability Sunday afternoon.

Front will sag south of the forecast area early Monday, keeping most
of the potential for storms focused across southern KS into the MO
Ozarks Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile low-level ridging building in
from the north will bring cooler and drier conditions by Tuesday,
when temperatures will only max out in the lower 80s with dewpoints
dropping into the 50s. This more comfortable airmass will persist
into the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile several disturbances
in northwest upper flow could bring several chances for rain to the
area as early as Wednesday and lasting into the weekend, although the
low-level ridging in place could keep the higher chances to the west
and southwest of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Broken
to overcast ceilings above 15 kft will eventually push off to the
east; and while a few very isolated showers and some scattered mid-
level stratus could develop early tomorrow morning, no precipitation
or cig/vsby changes are expected. A few storms are possible late
Saturday night, but may hold off until beyond the end of the TAF
period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 250823
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Subtle warm front has lifted into central Missouri this morning where
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along this
feature. Some of this activity may persist for a few hours into the
morning, otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected into this
afternoon as the area moves deeper into the warm sector. With a bit
of warm air advection this afternoon, temperatures will rise into the
lower to middle 90s across the forecast area. Veering surface winds
will allow the slightly drier air to the west to advect into the
area. Dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s this afternoon will
keep indices right around 100 degrees.

Cold front entering northern Nebraska will slowly drop southward
through the day, reaching northwest Missouri early Sunday morning.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of
the front across southeast Nebraska this afternoon and spread into
northern KS and northwest MO late this evening and overnight.
Moisture will be very high across these areas with precipitable water
values over 2 inches, which combined with weak steering winds could
lead to heavy rain in spots. Highest threat for strong storms and
heavy rain will generally be across areas northwest of a St. Joseph
to Bethany line through midnight or so. After this time, much of the
forcing along the front will weaken, so storms should decrease in
intensity as they drop south toward the Missouri River overnight into
early Sunday morning.

Cold front will slowly sag southward on Sunday, reaching the I-70
corridor by Sunday evening. Scattered storms will likely redevelop
along and ahead of this feature through the afternoon, some of which
could again produce locally heavy rainfall with precipitable water
values remaining near 2 inches. A slight increase in wind shear
Sunday afternoon could also support some isolated strong/severe
storms, although the potential is fairly high that clouds and
precipitation will cut back on the instability Sunday afternoon.

Front will sag south of the forecast area early Monday, keeping most
of the potential for storms focused across southern KS into the MO
Ozarks Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile low-level ridging building in
from the north will bring cooler and drier conditions by Tuesday,
when temperatures will only max out in the lower 80s with dewpoints
dropping into the 50s. This more comfortable airmass will persist
into the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile several disturbances
in northwest upper flow could bring several chances for rain to the
area as early as Wednesday and lasting into the weekend, although the
low-level ridging in place could keep the higher chances to the west
and southwest of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Broken
to overcast ceilings above 15 kft will eventually push off to the
east; and while a few very isolated showers and some scattered mid-
level stratus could develop early tomorrow morning, no precipitation
or cig/vsby changes are expected. A few storms are possible late
Saturday night, but may hold off until beyond the end of the TAF
period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 250805
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Heat and Humidity Returns Today...An Unsettled Weather Pattern
Returns Early Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Heat and humidity will return today with temperatures climbing
into the lower 90s by the afternoon. A weak boundary continues to
slowly lift northward across the Ozarks. A few tiny isolated
showers...rumble of thunder are on the radar this morning. With
daytime heating and instability later today, could see a few more
widely scattered showers and isolated storms to develop over the
eastern Ozarks but most areas will remain dry. We should see more
sunshine also today with party cloudy skies. Heat index will be
from 95 to 100 degrees today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Another front will make a move towards the area on Sunday from the
northwest. There will be a better chance for scattered showers and
storms across the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. There may
be an isolated strong to severe storm or two possible tomorrow
evening. The main threat will be wind gusts up to 50 mph and small
hail along with lightning.

The front slows down as it moves through on Monday. There will be
additional chances for showers and storms on Monday especially
over the southern Ozarks closer to the boundary as it moves
southward.

Northwest flow develops by Tuesday across the region. We will
actually experience some relief from the heat and humidity by
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs middle of next week will be in the
lower to middle 80s...maybe even some upper 70s for highs across
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Overnight temperatures
will be very refreshing in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The weather
looks to be dry for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. We will watch
for a possible MCS or organized convection developing over the
Central Plains and diving to the southeast late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Periodic storm chances return for the end
of next week. Temperatures will be seasonable end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A few showers remain over extreme southwest MO as of 0430z, but
have been rapidly diminishing over the past half hour. Will keep
VFR conditions going through the period. Shortwave should pass to
the east of the terminal locations tonight with main redevelopment
expected over the eastern CWA or east of here on Saturday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 250442
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A couple of subtle upper level disturbances continue to
move through the weak westerly flow aloft. The most "prominent" is
over eastern KS and this could set off some showers/isolated
thunder where pockets of instability can develop over the western
cwfa through early this evening. Cloud cover has kept
temperatures/instability down over some, but not all of the area
so will continue to monitor trends.

Building mid level heights should limit convection on Saturday.
High res model output does develop some isolated afternoon
convection over the far eastern cwfa as the weak upper level wave
moves into eastern MO. The weather will be hot and muggy once
again but some mixing down of dry air is indicated during the
afternoon so it doesn`t look like heat index values will get too
out of hand.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A remnant cold frontal boundary will try to move southeast into
the area on Sunday. Guidance really varies on how much and how far
south convection will get. The GFS and GEM break out more
convection versus the ECMWF, but it does look like there may be
some dew point and/or convective feedback issues with the GFS.
Will continue to carry some modest pops for Sunday with at least
the chance that the front or remnant outflow boundary will have a
chance to focus some chances for storms.

Forecast trends for next week look consistent with previous
guidance as an upper level ridge amplifies to our west and we get
into a cooler northwest (nw) flow regime. Shortwaves in the nw
flow will bring chances for storms at times, but as you might
guess, guidance varies widely on those mesoscale type features
that far out in time. The best chances for dry weather may be
Tue/Wed (daytime) with the relative close proximity to the drier
air/sfc high pressure over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A few showers remain over extreme southwest MO as of 0430z, but
have been rapidly diminishing over the past half hour. Will keep
VFR conditions going through the period. Shortwave should pass to
the east of the terminal locations tonight with main redevelopment
expected over the eastern CWA or east of here on Saturday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 250442
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A couple of subtle upper level disturbances continue to
move through the weak westerly flow aloft. The most "prominent" is
over eastern KS and this could set off some showers/isolated
thunder where pockets of instability can develop over the western
cwfa through early this evening. Cloud cover has kept
temperatures/instability down over some, but not all of the area
so will continue to monitor trends.

Building mid level heights should limit convection on Saturday.
High res model output does develop some isolated afternoon
convection over the far eastern cwfa as the weak upper level wave
moves into eastern MO. The weather will be hot and muggy once
again but some mixing down of dry air is indicated during the
afternoon so it doesn`t look like heat index values will get too
out of hand.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A remnant cold frontal boundary will try to move southeast into
the area on Sunday. Guidance really varies on how much and how far
south convection will get. The GFS and GEM break out more
convection versus the ECMWF, but it does look like there may be
some dew point and/or convective feedback issues with the GFS.
Will continue to carry some modest pops for Sunday with at least
the chance that the front or remnant outflow boundary will have a
chance to focus some chances for storms.

Forecast trends for next week look consistent with previous
guidance as an upper level ridge amplifies to our west and we get
into a cooler northwest (nw) flow regime. Shortwaves in the nw
flow will bring chances for storms at times, but as you might
guess, guidance varies widely on those mesoscale type features
that far out in time. The best chances for dry weather may be
Tue/Wed (daytime) with the relative close proximity to the drier
air/sfc high pressure over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A few showers remain over extreme southwest MO as of 0430z, but
have been rapidly diminishing over the past half hour. Will keep
VFR conditions going through the period. Shortwave should pass to
the east of the terminal locations tonight with main redevelopment
expected over the eastern CWA or east of here on Saturday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KLSX 250430
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1130 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

At 19z, the old frontal boundary that moved thru our region
yesterday remains across southeast MO and far southern IL, but has
since buckled northward towards central MO further to the west.  A
persistent old convective vorticity center aloft has maintained an
area of showers across parts of southeast MO today but is showing
signs of diminishment with time.  Another disturbance aloft is
maintaining showers and a few TSRA over eastern KS.  Despite most of
our region being north of a frontal boundary, temps have still
managed to climb into the 85-90 range for most locations, except
remaining in the 70s in parts of southeast MO where the persistent
showers were located.

Model guidance both weakens and exits the old convective vort to our
south late today with any rain chances then coming from the slowly
approaching warm front, although lift here is expected to be weak
and there should be somewhat slightly better rain chances after
midnight with the disturbance aloft from KS approaching from the
west. Model guidance does weaken this feature as it propagates
east and with not exactly the best coverage currently in eastern
KS, is a big question mark on how much coverage of pcpn it will be
able to result for Saturday when it moves thru. Kept chance
category PoPs for this period given the uncertainty and lack of
confidence, with better chances during the afternoon with diurnal
influences more prevalent.

Otherwise, MOS min temps in the low-mid 70s look tough to beat with
a MOS blend preferred for Saturday, which will yield max temps in
the 90-95 range for most sites.  Humidity will make a return
Saturday with passage of the warm front, but indications of a lot
of convective debris clouds and the persistent threat for rain
should prevent temps, and thus heat index values, from getting
high enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. A change to a drier,
sunnier forecast will almost mandate it, though.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

(Saturday Night - Monday)

Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday evening for
areas along/east of the Mississippi River in the vicinity of old
frontal boundary/convergence zone moving off to the east. Synoptic
cold front attendant from a sfc low moving through south-central
Canada will move into northern portions of the CWA late Saturday
night bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Leaned a bit
toward a slower fropa into the CWA and would not be surprised if
front ends up slowing down a bit more over the next 24-36 hours.
Lows ahead of this boundary will be quite mild once again with lows
across the area in the 70s.

Chance of showers/storms will move slowly south and east with the
cold front during the day on Sunday. Deep layer shear will be very
modest (on the order of 10-20 knots) but high instability could be
enough to compensate and produce a couple of strong to severe
thunderstorms with strong winds the primary threat.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky as exact timing of frontal
passage will be key in addition to the amount of sky cover and
coverage of storms. Current thinking is that there should be enough
clouds to limit the temperatures from rising high enough to create
heat index readings from reaching advisory (105+) levels...but if
temperatures are a bit warmer than currently forecast...heat index
values would likely approach if not exceed 105 degrees as dewpoints
are expected to be in the low to mid 70s pooling along the front.

Dry weather is expected on Sunday night and Monday. Airmass behind
this front has no teeth to it so highs on Monday will actually be as
warm if not warmer than on Sunday. However...it should feel a bit
nicer as dewpoints drop 5+ degrees compared to those expected on
Sunday.

(Tuesday - Next Friday)

Large scale pattern will undergo amplification heading into the
middle of the next work week. Another cold front will swing through
the area on Monday night and will bring much cooler and less humid
air into the mid-Mississippi Valley for Tuesday. Below normal
temperatures will should then remain across the area for the rest of
the week. Next chance of widespread rainfall looks to be Wednesday
night/Thursday timeframe but uncertainty with track/timing of
shortwave embedded within NW flow aloft precludes PoPs any higher
than chances at this time.

Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

For the most part dry, VFR conditions to prevail through forecast
period. As warm front lifts northward through region will see
isolated/scattered storms develop Saturday afternoon. Kept VCTS
mention in metro area tafs. Otherwise, light southeast to south
winds to pickup from the south by mid morning.

Specifics for KSTL:
For the most part dry, VFR conditions to prevail through forecast
period. As warm front lifts northward through region will see
isolated/scattered storms develop Saturday afternoon, then
diminish after sunset. Kept VCTS mention in metro area tafs.
Otherwise, light southeast to south winds to pickup from the south
by 15z Saturday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 250430
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1130 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

At 19z, the old frontal boundary that moved thru our region
yesterday remains across southeast MO and far southern IL, but has
since buckled northward towards central MO further to the west.  A
persistent old convective vorticity center aloft has maintained an
area of showers across parts of southeast MO today but is showing
signs of diminishment with time.  Another disturbance aloft is
maintaining showers and a few TSRA over eastern KS.  Despite most of
our region being north of a frontal boundary, temps have still
managed to climb into the 85-90 range for most locations, except
remaining in the 70s in parts of southeast MO where the persistent
showers were located.

Model guidance both weakens and exits the old convective vort to our
south late today with any rain chances then coming from the slowly
approaching warm front, although lift here is expected to be weak
and there should be somewhat slightly better rain chances after
midnight with the disturbance aloft from KS approaching from the
west. Model guidance does weaken this feature as it propagates
east and with not exactly the best coverage currently in eastern
KS, is a big question mark on how much coverage of pcpn it will be
able to result for Saturday when it moves thru. Kept chance
category PoPs for this period given the uncertainty and lack of
confidence, with better chances during the afternoon with diurnal
influences more prevalent.

Otherwise, MOS min temps in the low-mid 70s look tough to beat with
a MOS blend preferred for Saturday, which will yield max temps in
the 90-95 range for most sites.  Humidity will make a return
Saturday with passage of the warm front, but indications of a lot
of convective debris clouds and the persistent threat for rain
should prevent temps, and thus heat index values, from getting
high enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. A change to a drier,
sunnier forecast will almost mandate it, though.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

(Saturday Night - Monday)

Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday evening for
areas along/east of the Mississippi River in the vicinity of old
frontal boundary/convergence zone moving off to the east. Synoptic
cold front attendant from a sfc low moving through south-central
Canada will move into northern portions of the CWA late Saturday
night bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Leaned a bit
toward a slower fropa into the CWA and would not be surprised if
front ends up slowing down a bit more over the next 24-36 hours.
Lows ahead of this boundary will be quite mild once again with lows
across the area in the 70s.

Chance of showers/storms will move slowly south and east with the
cold front during the day on Sunday. Deep layer shear will be very
modest (on the order of 10-20 knots) but high instability could be
enough to compensate and produce a couple of strong to severe
thunderstorms with strong winds the primary threat.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky as exact timing of frontal
passage will be key in addition to the amount of sky cover and
coverage of storms. Current thinking is that there should be enough
clouds to limit the temperatures from rising high enough to create
heat index readings from reaching advisory (105+) levels...but if
temperatures are a bit warmer than currently forecast...heat index
values would likely approach if not exceed 105 degrees as dewpoints
are expected to be in the low to mid 70s pooling along the front.

Dry weather is expected on Sunday night and Monday. Airmass behind
this front has no teeth to it so highs on Monday will actually be as
warm if not warmer than on Sunday. However...it should feel a bit
nicer as dewpoints drop 5+ degrees compared to those expected on
Sunday.

(Tuesday - Next Friday)

Large scale pattern will undergo amplification heading into the
middle of the next work week. Another cold front will swing through
the area on Monday night and will bring much cooler and less humid
air into the mid-Mississippi Valley for Tuesday. Below normal
temperatures will should then remain across the area for the rest of
the week. Next chance of widespread rainfall looks to be Wednesday
night/Thursday timeframe but uncertainty with track/timing of
shortwave embedded within NW flow aloft precludes PoPs any higher
than chances at this time.

Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

For the most part dry, VFR conditions to prevail through forecast
period. As warm front lifts northward through region will see
isolated/scattered storms develop Saturday afternoon. Kept VCTS
mention in metro area tafs. Otherwise, light southeast to south
winds to pickup from the south by mid morning.

Specifics for KSTL:
For the most part dry, VFR conditions to prevail through forecast
period. As warm front lifts northward through region will see
isolated/scattered storms develop Saturday afternoon, then
diminish after sunset. Kept VCTS mention in metro area tafs.
Otherwise, light southeast to south winds to pickup from the south
by 15z Saturday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 250357
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1057 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Current satellite imagery and H5 heights showing a slowly
progressing shortwave trough moving through Kansas. This wave
sparked off a cluster of storms overnight in southwest Kansas which
have been moving eastward through the day today. The subsequent MCV
has started to lift northeastward into northeast Kansas early this
afternoon. The cap has been slow to erode this morning, but with
increasing instability this afternoon and warm front retreating
north, we should see showers and thunderstorms begin to increase in
coverage over the next few hours. Although CAPE values are ranging
from 2500-3000 J/kg, shear is very weak and not much in the way of
forcing will limit any potential for severe weather. However, heavy
rain and local flooding may be an issue with these relatively slow
moving cells, especially with precipitable water values ranging from
1.75-2". Activity will decrease as diurnal heating ceases for the
day.

Overnight, increasing isentropic lift across central Kansas will
allow another round of precip to develop and move northeastward. The
RAP model tracks this activity through the northwest corner of the
CWA by early Saturday morning.

Return flow Saturday ahead of a cold front will allow temperatures
to climb back into the mid 90s for much of the CWA. Moisture
transport will also increase ahead of the cold front as open gulf
and additional low level moisture from a western GOM tropical
disturbance is drawn northward into the Plains. By Saturday evening,
precipitable water values of 2" over northeast Kansas and northern
Missouri hint at the potential for a heavy rain event setting up as
the front moves through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
may linger into Sunday morning before activity moves out of the CWA.

In the extended... Upper level flow will transition to more of a
northwest flow pattern by the beginning of the workweek. Ridging
across the western conus will allow for several rounds of convection
along the Front Range of the Rockies to translate along the 500mb
flow into the Central Plains and CWA.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Broken
to overcast ceilings above 15 kft will eventually push off to the
east; and while a few very isolated showers and some scattered mid-
level stratus could develop early tomorrow morning, no precipitation
or cig/vsby changes are expected. A few storms are possible late
Saturday night, but may hold off until beyond the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KLSX 242347
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
647 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

At 19z, the old frontal boundary that moved thru our region
yesterday remains across southeast MO and far southern IL, but has
since buckled northward towards central MO further to the west.  A
persistent old convective vorticity center aloft has maintained an
area of showers across parts of southeast MO today but is showing
signs of diminishment with time.  Another disturbance aloft is
maintaining showers and a few TSRA over eastern KS.  Despite most of
our region being north of a frontal boundary, temps have still
managed to climb into the 85-90 range for most locations, except
remaining in the 70s in parts of southeast MO where the persistent
showers were located.

Model guidance both weakens and exits the old convective vort to our
south late today with any rain chances then coming from the slowly
approaching warm front, although lift here is expected to be weak
and there should be somewhat slightly better rain chances after
midnight with the disturbance aloft from KS approaching from the
west. Model guidance does weaken this feature as it propagates
east and with not exactly the best coverage currently in eastern
KS, is a big question mark on how much coverage of pcpn it will be
able to result for Saturday when it moves thru. Kept chance
category PoPs for this period given the uncertainty and lack of
confidence, with better chances during the afternoon with diurnal
influences more prevalent.

Otherwise, MOS min temps in the low-mid 70s look tough to beat with
a MOS blend preferred for Saturday, which will yield max temps in
the 90-95 range for most sites.  Humidity will make a return
Saturday with passage of the warm front, but indications of a lot
of convective debris clouds and the persistent threat for rain
should prevent temps, and thus heat index values, from getting
high enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. A change to a drier,
sunnier forecast will almost mandate it, though.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

(Saturday Night - Monday)

Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday evening for
areas along/east of the Mississippi River in the vicinity of old
frontal boundary/convergence zone moving off to the east. Synoptic
cold front attendant from a sfc low moving through south-central
Canada will move into northern portions of the CWA late Saturday
night bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Leaned a bit
toward a slower fropa into the CWA and would not be surprised if
front ends up slowing down a bit more over the next 24-36 hours.
Lows ahead of this boundary will be quite mild once again with lows
across the area in the 70s.

Chance of showers/storms will move slowly south and east with the
cold front during the day on Sunday. Deep layer shear will be very
modest (on the order of 10-20 knots) but high instability could be
enough to compensate and produce a couple of strong to severe
thunderstorms with strong winds the primary threat.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky as exact timing of frontal
passage will be key in addition to the amount of sky cover and
coverage of storms. Current thinking is that there should be enough
clouds to limit the temperatures from rising high enough to create
heat index readings from reaching advisory (105+) levels...but if
temperatures are a bit warmer than currently forecast...heat index
values would likely approach if not exceed 105 degrees as dewpoints
are expected to be in the low to mid 70s pooling along the front.

Dry weather is expected on Sunday night and Monday. Airmass behind
this front has no teeth to it so highs on Monday will actually be as
warm if not warmer than on Sunday. However...it should feel a bit
nicer as dewpoints drop 5+ degrees compared to those expected on
Sunday.

(Tuesday - Next Friday)

Large scale pattern will undergo amplification heading into the
middle of the next work week. Another cold front will swing through
the area on Monday night and will bring much cooler and less humid
air into the mid-Mississippi Valley for Tuesday. Below normal
temperatures will should then remain across the area for the rest of
the week. Next chance of widespread rainfall looks to be Wednesday
night/Thursday timeframe but uncertainty with track/timing of
shortwave embedded within NW flow aloft precludes PoPs any higher
than chances at this time.

Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Still expect some scattered showers/storms to develop along warm
front as it lifts northward through region this evening over KCOU.
So kept VCTS mention through 03z Saturday there. Otherwise, dry VFR
conditions with light southeast to south winds. Could see activity
over STL metro area Saturday afternoon, so added VCTS mention
during this period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Dry VFR conditions with light southeast to south winds for
majority of forecast period. Could see isolated/scattered showers
and thunderstorms over STL metro area Saturday afternoon as warm
front lifts northward through region, so added VCTS mention
during this period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 242347
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
647 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

At 19z, the old frontal boundary that moved thru our region
yesterday remains across southeast MO and far southern IL, but has
since buckled northward towards central MO further to the west.  A
persistent old convective vorticity center aloft has maintained an
area of showers across parts of southeast MO today but is showing
signs of diminishment with time.  Another disturbance aloft is
maintaining showers and a few TSRA over eastern KS.  Despite most of
our region being north of a frontal boundary, temps have still
managed to climb into the 85-90 range for most locations, except
remaining in the 70s in parts of southeast MO where the persistent
showers were located.

Model guidance both weakens and exits the old convective vort to our
south late today with any rain chances then coming from the slowly
approaching warm front, although lift here is expected to be weak
and there should be somewhat slightly better rain chances after
midnight with the disturbance aloft from KS approaching from the
west. Model guidance does weaken this feature as it propagates
east and with not exactly the best coverage currently in eastern
KS, is a big question mark on how much coverage of pcpn it will be
able to result for Saturday when it moves thru. Kept chance
category PoPs for this period given the uncertainty and lack of
confidence, with better chances during the afternoon with diurnal
influences more prevalent.

Otherwise, MOS min temps in the low-mid 70s look tough to beat with
a MOS blend preferred for Saturday, which will yield max temps in
the 90-95 range for most sites.  Humidity will make a return
Saturday with passage of the warm front, but indications of a lot
of convective debris clouds and the persistent threat for rain
should prevent temps, and thus heat index values, from getting
high enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. A change to a drier,
sunnier forecast will almost mandate it, though.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

(Saturday Night - Monday)

Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday evening for
areas along/east of the Mississippi River in the vicinity of old
frontal boundary/convergence zone moving off to the east. Synoptic
cold front attendant from a sfc low moving through south-central
Canada will move into northern portions of the CWA late Saturday
night bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Leaned a bit
toward a slower fropa into the CWA and would not be surprised if
front ends up slowing down a bit more over the next 24-36 hours.
Lows ahead of this boundary will be quite mild once again with lows
across the area in the 70s.

Chance of showers/storms will move slowly south and east with the
cold front during the day on Sunday. Deep layer shear will be very
modest (on the order of 10-20 knots) but high instability could be
enough to compensate and produce a couple of strong to severe
thunderstorms with strong winds the primary threat.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky as exact timing of frontal
passage will be key in addition to the amount of sky cover and
coverage of storms. Current thinking is that there should be enough
clouds to limit the temperatures from rising high enough to create
heat index readings from reaching advisory (105+) levels...but if
temperatures are a bit warmer than currently forecast...heat index
values would likely approach if not exceed 105 degrees as dewpoints
are expected to be in the low to mid 70s pooling along the front.

Dry weather is expected on Sunday night and Monday. Airmass behind
this front has no teeth to it so highs on Monday will actually be as
warm if not warmer than on Sunday. However...it should feel a bit
nicer as dewpoints drop 5+ degrees compared to those expected on
Sunday.

(Tuesday - Next Friday)

Large scale pattern will undergo amplification heading into the
middle of the next work week. Another cold front will swing through
the area on Monday night and will bring much cooler and less humid
air into the mid-Mississippi Valley for Tuesday. Below normal
temperatures will should then remain across the area for the rest of
the week. Next chance of widespread rainfall looks to be Wednesday
night/Thursday timeframe but uncertainty with track/timing of
shortwave embedded within NW flow aloft precludes PoPs any higher
than chances at this time.

Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Still expect some scattered showers/storms to develop along warm
front as it lifts northward through region this evening over KCOU.
So kept VCTS mention through 03z Saturday there. Otherwise, dry VFR
conditions with light southeast to south winds. Could see activity
over STL metro area Saturday afternoon, so added VCTS mention
during this period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Dry VFR conditions with light southeast to south winds for
majority of forecast period. Could see isolated/scattered showers
and thunderstorms over STL metro area Saturday afternoon as warm
front lifts northward through region, so added VCTS mention
during this period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 242330
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Current satellite imagery and H5 heights showing a slowly
progressing shortwave trough moving through Kansas. This wave
sparked off a cluster of storms overnight in southwest Kansas which
have been moving eastward through the day today. The subsequent MCV
has started to lift northeastward into northeast Kansas early this
afternoon. The cap has been slow to erode this morning, but with
increasing instability this afternoon and warm front retreating
north, we should see showers and thunderstorms begin to increase in
coverage over the next few hours. Although CAPE values are ranging
from 2500-3000 J/kg, shear is very weak and not much in the way of
forcing will limit any potential for severe weather. However, heavy
rain and local flooding may be an issue with these relatively slow
moving cells, especially with precipitable water values ranging from
1.75-2". Activity will decrease as diurnal heating ceases for the
day.

Overnight, increasing isentropic lift across central Kansas will
allow another round of precip to develop and move northeastward. The
RAP model tracks this activity through the northwest corner of the
CWA by early Saturday morning.

Return flow Saturday ahead of a cold front will allow temperatures
to climb back into the mid 90s for much of the CWA. Moisture
transport will also increase ahead of the cold front as open gulf
and additional low level moisture from a western GOM tropical
disturbance is drawn northward into the Plains. By Saturday evening,
precipitable water values of 2" over northeast Kansas and northern
Missouri hint at the potential for a heavy rain event setting up as
the front moves through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
may linger into Sunday morning before activity moves out of the CWA.

In the extended... Upper level flow will transition to more of a
northwest flow pattern by the beginning of the workweek. Ridging
across the western conus will allow for several rounds of convection
along the Front Range of the Rockies to translate along the 500mb
flow into the Central Plains and CWA.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Light rain showers will continue to filter in and out of the TAF
sites between now and 01z, then should push off to the east and
dissipate with time. Ceilings and visibilities should remain VFR
even as these showers pass through. Winds will also back to the
southeast temporarily this evening, but should return to light
southerly overnight. There are some indications that an area of
showers and storms may develop west of the terminals after 06z
and translate northeast with time; however, the bulk of the storm
activity is more likely north of the terminals and did not warrant
a mention in the TAF at this time. Will continue to monitor and
may consider adding a TSRA or VCTS group to at least KSTJ if the
forecast looks more supportive at the next issuance.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Laflin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 242307
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A couple of subtle upper level disturbances continue to
move through the weak westerly flow aloft. The most "prominent" is
over eastern KS and this could set off some showers/isolated
thunder where pockets of instability can develop over the western
cwfa through early this evening. Cloud cover has kept
temperatures/instability down over some, but not all of the area
so will continue to monitor trends.

Building mid level heights should limit convection on Saturday.
High res model output does develop some isolated afternoon
convection over the far eastern cwfa as the weak upper level wave
moves into eastern MO. The weather will be hot and muggy once
again but some mixing down of dry air is indicated during the
afternoon so it doesn`t look like heat index values will get too
out of hand.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A remnant cold frontal boundary will try to move southeast into
the area on Sunday. Guidance really varies on how much and how far
south convection will get. The GFS and GEM break out more
convection versus the ECMWF, but it does look like there may be
some dew point and/or convective feedback issues with the GFS.
Will continue to carry some modest pops for Sunday with at least
the chance that the front or remnant outflow boundary will have a
chance to focus some chances for storms.

Forecast trends for next week look consistent with previous
guidance as an upper level ridge amplifies to our west and we get
into a cooler northwest (nw) flow regime. Shortwaves in the nw
flow will bring chances for storms at times, but as you might
guess, guidance varies widely on those mesoscale type features
that far out in time. The best chances for dry weather may be
Tue/Wed (daytime) with the relative close proximity to the drier
air/sfc high pressure over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A few isolated showers/storms have developed late this afternoon
north of JLN and west of SGF. At this time, keeping out of
terminal forecast for 00z issuance. Activity expected to diminish
with loss of daytime heating and instability in a few hours.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 242307
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A couple of subtle upper level disturbances continue to
move through the weak westerly flow aloft. The most "prominent" is
over eastern KS and this could set off some showers/isolated
thunder where pockets of instability can develop over the western
cwfa through early this evening. Cloud cover has kept
temperatures/instability down over some, but not all of the area
so will continue to monitor trends.

Building mid level heights should limit convection on Saturday.
High res model output does develop some isolated afternoon
convection over the far eastern cwfa as the weak upper level wave
moves into eastern MO. The weather will be hot and muggy once
again but some mixing down of dry air is indicated during the
afternoon so it doesn`t look like heat index values will get too
out of hand.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A remnant cold frontal boundary will try to move southeast into
the area on Sunday. Guidance really varies on how much and how far
south convection will get. The GFS and GEM break out more
convection versus the ECMWF, but it does look like there may be
some dew point and/or convective feedback issues with the GFS.
Will continue to carry some modest pops for Sunday with at least
the chance that the front or remnant outflow boundary will have a
chance to focus some chances for storms.

Forecast trends for next week look consistent with previous
guidance as an upper level ridge amplifies to our west and we get
into a cooler northwest (nw) flow regime. Shortwaves in the nw
flow will bring chances for storms at times, but as you might
guess, guidance varies widely on those mesoscale type features
that far out in time. The best chances for dry weather may be
Tue/Wed (daytime) with the relative close proximity to the drier
air/sfc high pressure over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A few isolated showers/storms have developed late this afternoon
north of JLN and west of SGF. At this time, keeping out of
terminal forecast for 00z issuance. Activity expected to diminish
with loss of daytime heating and instability in a few hours.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KEAX 242042
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Current satellite imagery and H5 heights showing a slowly
progressing shortwave trough moving through Kansas. This wave
sparked off a cluster of storms overnight in southwest Kansas which
have been moving eastward through the day today. The subsequent MCV
has started to lift northeastward into northeast Kansas early this
afternoon. The cap has been slow to erode this morning, but with
increasing instability this afternoon and warm front retreating
north, we should see showers and thunderstorms begin to increase in
coverage over the next few hours. Although CAPE values are ranging
from 2500-3000 J/kg, shear is very weak and not much in the way of
forcing will limit any potential for severe weather. However, heavy
rain and local flooding may be an issue with these relatively slow
moving cells, especially with precipitable water values ranging from
1.75-2". Activity will decrease as diurnal heating ceases for the
day.

Overnight, increasing insentropic lift across central Kansas will
allow another round of precip to develop and move northeastward. The
RAP model tracks this activity through the northwest corner of the
CWA by early Saturday morning.

Return flow Saturday ahead of a cold front will allow temperatures
to climb back into the mid 90s for much of the CWA. Moisture
transport will also increase ahead of the cold front as open gulf
and additional low level moisture from a western GOM tropical
disturbance is drawn northward into the Plains. By Saturday evening,
precipitable water values of 2" over northeast Kansas and northern
Missouri hint at the potential for a heavy rain event setting up as
the front moves through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
may linger into Sunday morning before activity moves out of the CWA.

In the extended... Upper level flow will transition to more of a
northwest flow pattern by the beginning of the workweek. Ridging
across the western conus will allow for several rounds of convection
along the Front Range of the Rockies to translate along the 500mb
flow into the Central Plains and CWA.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Thunderstorm complex across western Kansas will work its way eastward
through the afternoon and evening with additional scattered storms
expected to develop. This round should taper off later this evening
through about 2-4Z. Vsby may decrease due to heavy rain, but
otherwise is expected to be VFR. Winds will remain generally out of
the south. Another potential round of t-storms is possible around 8Z
as the low level jet ramps up across Kansas.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM




000
FXUS63 KEAX 242042
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Current satellite imagery and H5 heights showing a slowly
progressing shortwave trough moving through Kansas. This wave
sparked off a cluster of storms overnight in southwest Kansas which
have been moving eastward through the day today. The subsequent MCV
has started to lift northeastward into northeast Kansas early this
afternoon. The cap has been slow to erode this morning, but with
increasing instability this afternoon and warm front retreating
north, we should see showers and thunderstorms begin to increase in
coverage over the next few hours. Although CAPE values are ranging
from 2500-3000 J/kg, shear is very weak and not much in the way of
forcing will limit any potential for severe weather. However, heavy
rain and local flooding may be an issue with these relatively slow
moving cells, especially with precipitable water values ranging from
1.75-2". Activity will decrease as diurnal heating ceases for the
day.

Overnight, increasing insentropic lift across central Kansas will
allow another round of precip to develop and move northeastward. The
RAP model tracks this activity through the northwest corner of the
CWA by early Saturday morning.

Return flow Saturday ahead of a cold front will allow temperatures
to climb back into the mid 90s for much of the CWA. Moisture
transport will also increase ahead of the cold front as open gulf
and additional low level moisture from a western GOM tropical
disturbance is drawn northward into the Plains. By Saturday evening,
precipitable water values of 2" over northeast Kansas and northern
Missouri hint at the potential for a heavy rain event setting up as
the front moves through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
may linger into Sunday morning before activity moves out of the CWA.

In the extended... Upper level flow will transition to more of a
northwest flow pattern by the beginning of the workweek. Ridging
across the western conus will allow for several rounds of convection
along the Front Range of the Rockies to translate along the 500mb
flow into the Central Plains and CWA.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Thunderstorm complex across western Kansas will work its way eastward
through the afternoon and evening with additional scattered storms
expected to develop. This round should taper off later this evening
through about 2-4Z. Vsby may decrease due to heavy rain, but
otherwise is expected to be VFR. Winds will remain generally out of
the south. Another potential round of t-storms is possible around 8Z
as the low level jet ramps up across Kansas.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM




000
FXUS63 KLSX 242028
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
328 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

At 19z, the old frontal boundary that moved thru our region
yesterday remains across southeast MO and far southern IL, but has
since buckled northward towards central MO further to the west.  A
persistent old convective vorticity center aloft has maintained an
area of showers across parts of southeast MO today but is showing
signs of diminishment with time.  Another disturbance aloft is
maintaining showers and a few TSRA over eastern KS.  Despite most of
our region being north of a frontal boundary, temps have still
managed to climb into the 85-90 range for most locations, except
remaining in the 70s in parts of southeast MO where the persistent
showers were located.

Model guidance both weakens and exits the old convective vort to our
south late today with any rain chances then coming from the slowly
approaching warm front, although lift here is expected to be weak
and there should be somewhat slightly better rain chances after
midnight with the disturbance aloft from KS approaching from the
west. Model guidance does weaken this feature as it propagates
east and with not exactly the best coverage currently in eastern
KS, is a big question mark on how much coverage of pcpn it will be
able to result for Saturday when it moves thru. Kept chance
category PoPs for this period given the uncertainty and lack of
confidence, with better chances during the afternoon with diurnal
influences more prevalent.

Otherwise, MOS min temps in the low-mid 70s look tough to beat with
a MOS blend preferred for Saturday, which will yield max temps in
the 90-95 range for most sites.  Humidity will make a return
Saturday with passage of the warm front, but indications of a lot
of convective debris clouds and the persistent threat for rain
should prevent temps, and thus heat index values, from getting
high enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. A change to a drier,
sunnier forecast will almost mandate it, though.

TES


.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

(Saturday Night - Monday)

Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday evening for
areas along/east of the Mississippi River in the vicinity of old
frontal boundary/convergence zone moving off to the east. Synoptic
cold front attendant from a sfc low moving through south-central
Canada will move into northern portions of the CWA late Saturday
night bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Leaned a bit
toward a slower fropa into the CWA and would not be surprised if
front ends up slowing down a bit more over the next 24-36 hours.
Lows ahead of this boundary will be quite mild once again with lows
across the area in the 70s.

Chance of showers/storms will move slowly south and east with the
cold front during the day on Sunday. Deep layer shear will be very
modest (on the order of 10-20 knots) but high instability could be
enough to compensate and produce a couple of strong to severe
thunderstorms with strong winds the primary threat.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky as exact timing of frontal
passage will be key in addition to the amount of sky cover and
coverage of storms. Current thinking is that there should be enough
clouds to limit the temperatures from rising high enough to create
heat index readings from reaching advisory (105+) levels...but if
temperatures are a bit warmer than currently forecast...heat index
values would likely approach if not exceed 105 degrees as dewpoints
are expected to be in the low to mid 70s pooling along the front.

Dry weather is expected on Sunday night and Monday. Airmass behind
this front has no teeth to it so highs on Monday will actually be as
warm if not warmer than on Sunday. However...it should feel a bit
nicer as dewpoints drop 5+ degrees compared to those expected on
Sunday.


(Tuesday - Next Friday)

Large scale pattern will undergo amplification heading into the
middle of the next work week. Another cold front will swing through
the area on Monday night and will bring much cooler and less humid
air into the mid-Mississippi Valley for Tuesday. Below normal
temperatures will should then remain across the area for the rest of
the week. Next chance of widespread rainfall looks to be Wednesday
night/Thursday timeframe but uncertainty with track/timing of
shortwave embedded within NW flow aloft precludes PoPs any higher
than chances at this time.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. An old frontal boundary over southern and western MO will
gradually buckle back to the northeast as a warm front late this
afternoon thru Saturday, and will result in the potential for
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Saturday. Currently, the
probs are too low for mention in the TAFs at all sites save COU,
where a VCTS has been introduced. A VCxx group may need to be
added to the other sites as needed once convection coverage can be
better verified. Otherwise, light winds will become easterly
tonight and veer south-southeast on Saturday.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 242020
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
320 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A couple of subtle upper level disturbances continue to
move through the weak westerly flow aloft. The most "prominent" is
over eastern KS and this could set off some showers/isolated
thunder where pockets of instability can develop over the western
cwfa through early this evening. Cloud cover has kept
temperatures/instability down over some, but not all of the area
so will continue to monitor trends.

Building mid level heights should limit convection on Saturday.
High res model output does develop some isolated afternoon
convection over the far eastern cwfa as the weak upper level wave
moves into eastern MO. The weather will be hot and muggy once
again but some mixing down of dry air is indicated during the
afternoon so it doesn`t look like heat index values will get too
out of hand.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A remnant cold frontal boundary will try to move southeast into
the area on Sunday. Guidance really varies on how much and how far
south convection will get. The GFS and GEM break out more
convection versus the ECMWF, but it does look like there may be
some dew point and/or convective feedback issues with the GFS.
Will continue to carry some modest pops for Sunday with at least
the chance that the front or remnant outflow boundary will have a
chance to focus some chances for storms.

Forecast trends for next week look consistent with previous
guidance as an upper level ridge amplifies to our west and we get
into a cooler northwest (nw) flow regime. Shortwaves in the nw
flow will bring chances for storms at times, but as you might
guess, guidance varies widely on those mesoscale type features
that far out in time. The best chances for dry weather may be
Tue/Wed (daytime) with the relative close proximity to the drier
air/sfc high pressure over the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Generally VFR conditions should prevail through the period. A few
drops to MVFR or IFR are possible with scattered TSRA this
afternoon, though coverage appears too sparse for anything beyond
VCTS at this time. Winds will remain south to southeast through
the period.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell




000
FXUS63 KEAX 241740
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Watching several areas of convection early this morning, most of
which are roughly aligned near a quasi-stationary boundary
stretching from southern MO into central KS. This boundary will lift
back north today and should reach northern Missouri by early
afternoon. Meanwhile a large convective complex over southwest KS and
northern OK has led to the development of a mesoscale convective
vortex near Dodge City. The RAP seems to be the only model resolving
this feature, and it brings it east-northeastward into eastern KS and
northwest MO later this afternoon as a broadening mid-level wave.
Should this feature persist and track this direction, which is still
not completely certain, the combo of this wave with the retreating
warm front could spark several showers and thunderstorms across
eastern KS into western MO later today. Shear values are weak, so
severe storms are unlikely with this activity, although moderate
instability and precipitable water values near 1.75" could support
some locally heavy rain in a few spots.

Convection will likely wane later this evening as the convectively-
induced upper wave pushes to the east of the area and the warm front
lifts into Iowa. This will set the stage for another hot day on
Saturday when temperatures will likely reach the middle 90s across
much of the forecast area with heat index values around 100.

By Saturday night a stronger wave will track across the Upper Midwest
and send a cold front into parts of the Lower Missouri Valley. Both
the NAM and the GFS are indicating copious amounts of moisture
transport ahead of the front with precipitable water values reaching
as high as 2.3". This moisture combined with the potential for deep
convergence along and ahead of the boundary could set the stage for
heavy rain across parts of northeast KS into north central MO
Saturday night. A lot of the heavy rain potential will depend on the
strength and orientation of a low-level jet progged to feed into the
boundary Saturday evening. If this feature is not as strong as
currently anticipated then the heavy rain threat will be lower.

Saturday night`s cold front looks to stall somewhere near the
Missouri River on Sunday, keeping the threat for precipitation
confined to areas from eastern KS into the MO Ozarks Sunday and
Sunday night. This boundary will then lift back north slightly early
next week as northwest upper flow develops across the region. This
could set the stage for one or more convective complexes tracking
across the area through the middle of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Thunderstorm complex across western Kansas will work its way eastward
through the afternoon and evening with additional scattered storms
expected to develop. This round should taper off later this evening
through about 2-4Z. Vsby may decrease due to heavy rain, but
otherwise is expected to be VFR. Winds will remain generally out of
the south. Another potential round of t-storms is possible around 8Z
as the low level jet ramps up across Kansas.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...PMM




000
FXUS63 KLSX 241735
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The cold front has pushed through the CWA and become quasi-
stationary, extending from southern KS across far southern MO
into western KY early this morning, with weak surface high
pressure situated over the upper MS Valley. The MCS which was over
southwest MO yesterday evening has since dissipated with a few
spotty residual showers and diminishing clouds. Weather conditions
are largely expected to be tranquil across the area today with
high pressure dominating and bringing cooler temperatures and
lower humidity. The MCV currently in southwest MO is expected to
drift southeast, while the western portion of the front will lift
north across the Plains and western MO. Will have to keep an eye
on the region in the vicinity of the front from southeast MO into
south central MO for the possibility (albiet low) of a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A progressive upper air pattern will in place across the northern
tier of the CONUS through early next week as an upper trof
progresses steadily eastward, while retrogression will take place
across the southern tier as the upper high shifts from the
southeastern U.S. to the four corners region. A cold frontal
system will progress into the northern and central Plains tonight
associated with the migratory upper trof. In response to the
attendant pressure falls, our southern front will continue to
shift northward getting a more north-south orientation with time
and stretching through central MO by 12z Sat. The H85 flow tonight
becomes more southwesterly allowing moisture to increase, however
forcing is quite weak and there is no appreciable surface moisture
convergence with the front, so slight chance POPs seem
appropriate. The front continues to slide east towards the MS
River on Saturday bringing increasing heat and humidity. The air
mass looks quite unstable with little to no CIN in the afternoon
and certainly supportive of widely scattered-scattered
thunderstorms lasting into the evening as the front continues to
shift to the east across IL. A better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will come overnight on Saturday and into Sunday as
the cold front associated with the aforementioned progressive
northern tier upper trof moves into NW MO late Saturday night and
southward through the area on Sunday. I was a little conservative
on high temps on Sunday and that was due to the uncertainty of
ongoing showers and thunderstorms and daybreak and amount of cloud
cover and potential negative impact on heating. The cold front
will continue to progress southward on Sunday night and then
another secondary cold front moves through the area on Monday.

Large scale amplification marks the first half of next week as a
broad upper trof evolves in eastern NOAM, with the trof then
persisting into late week. If this holds true, then cooler/below
average temperatures can be expected Tuesday-Thursday. A series of
northwest flow short waves could also bring some thunderstorms
Wed-Thurs.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. An old frontal boundary over southern and western MO will
gradually buckle back to the northeast as a warm front late this
afternoon thru Saturday, and will result in the potential for
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Saturday. Currently, the
probs are too low for mention in the TAFs at all sites save COU,
where a VCTS has been introduced. A VCxx group may need to be
added to the other sites as needed once convection coverage can be
better verified. Otherwise, light winds will become easterly
tonight and veer south-southeast on Saturday.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 241735
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The cold front has pushed through the CWA and become quasi-
stationary, extending from southern KS across far southern MO
into western KY early this morning, with weak surface high
pressure situated over the upper MS Valley. The MCS which was over
southwest MO yesterday evening has since dissipated with a few
spotty residual showers and diminishing clouds. Weather conditions
are largely expected to be tranquil across the area today with
high pressure dominating and bringing cooler temperatures and
lower humidity. The MCV currently in southwest MO is expected to
drift southeast, while the western portion of the front will lift
north across the Plains and western MO. Will have to keep an eye
on the region in the vicinity of the front from southeast MO into
south central MO for the possibility (albiet low) of a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A progressive upper air pattern will in place across the northern
tier of the CONUS through early next week as an upper trof
progresses steadily eastward, while retrogression will take place
across the southern tier as the upper high shifts from the
southeastern U.S. to the four corners region. A cold frontal
system will progress into the northern and central Plains tonight
associated with the migratory upper trof. In response to the
attendant pressure falls, our southern front will continue to
shift northward getting a more north-south orientation with time
and stretching through central MO by 12z Sat. The H85 flow tonight
becomes more southwesterly allowing moisture to increase, however
forcing is quite weak and there is no appreciable surface moisture
convergence with the front, so slight chance POPs seem
appropriate. The front continues to slide east towards the MS
River on Saturday bringing increasing heat and humidity. The air
mass looks quite unstable with little to no CIN in the afternoon
and certainly supportive of widely scattered-scattered
thunderstorms lasting into the evening as the front continues to
shift to the east across IL. A better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will come overnight on Saturday and into Sunday as
the cold front associated with the aforementioned progressive
northern tier upper trof moves into NW MO late Saturday night and
southward through the area on Sunday. I was a little conservative
on high temps on Sunday and that was due to the uncertainty of
ongoing showers and thunderstorms and daybreak and amount of cloud
cover and potential negative impact on heating. The cold front
will continue to progress southward on Sunday night and then
another secondary cold front moves through the area on Monday.

Large scale amplification marks the first half of next week as a
broad upper trof evolves in eastern NOAM, with the trof then
persisting into late week. If this holds true, then cooler/below
average temperatures can be expected Tuesday-Thursday. A series of
northwest flow short waves could also bring some thunderstorms
Wed-Thurs.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. An old frontal boundary over southern and western MO will
gradually buckle back to the northeast as a warm front late this
afternoon thru Saturday, and will result in the potential for
showers and thunderstorms tonight and Saturday. Currently, the
probs are too low for mention in the TAFs at all sites save COU,
where a VCTS has been introduced. A VCxx group may need to be
added to the other sites as needed once convection coverage can be
better verified. Otherwise, light winds will become easterly
tonight and veer south-southeast on Saturday.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 241726
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1226 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A weak frontal boundary has stalled out from west to east across
the Missouri Ozarks this morning. This surface feature along with
a very moist and rather unstable atmosphere along with the help of
some weak impulse mid level energy has caused additional scattered
showers and storms to redevelop across the western portion of the
area this morning. The boundary will begin to slow lift northward
today. Another ripple of energy in the westerlies will interact
with the boundary later this morning and this afternoon. This will
develop additional scattered storms by midday and early afternoon
across the central portion of the area and move off to the east.

Enough instability may cause a few strong to isolated severe
storms to develop. The main hazard will be downburst winds up to
60 mph along with lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Most of the
convection will be dwindling down by sunset this evening.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with the added rain and
clouds in the area. Highs on either side of 90 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The upper level ridge tries to reestablish itself over the area
on Saturday. This will temporarily turn off the rain chances and
warm temps back up into the 90s. The upper level ridge will start
to diminish by Sunday and actually begin to reform over the
western U.S. Another weak frontal boundary will sag back southward
into the area late Sunday into Monday. Scattered rain chances and
storms will return. This boundary will stall right across the
region from northwest to southeast. With the upper level ridge
over the Four Corners Region of the west, this will put the Ozarks
Region in a "Ring of Fire" flow or potential MCS activity like
flow Monday night through Thursday morning with the better signal
Wednesday and Thursday. The weather pattern definitely looks more
unsettled and cooler temperatures next week. Highs temps will be
actually slightly below average in the lower 80s...maybe upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Generally VFR conditions should prevail through the period. A few
drops to MVFR or IFR are possible with scattered TSRA this
afternoon, though coverage appears too sparse for anything beyond
VCTS at this time. Winds will remain south to southeast through
the period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell




000
FXUS63 KSGF 241213
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
713 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A weak frontal boundary has stalled out from west to east across
the Missouri Ozarks this morning. This surface feature along with
a very moist and rather unstable atmosphere along with the help of
some weak impulse mid level energy has caused additional scattered
showers and storms to redevelop across the western portion of the
area this morning. The boundary will begin to slow lift northward
today. Another ripple of energy in the westerlies will interact
with the boundary later this morning and this afternoon. This will
develop additional scattered storms by midday and early afternoon
across the central portion of the area and move off to the east.

Enough instability may cause a few strong to isolated severe
storms to develop. The main hazard will be downburst winds up to
60 mph along with lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Most of the
convection will be dwindling down by sunset this evening.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with the added rain and
clouds in the area. Highs on either side of 90 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The upper level ridge tries to reestablish itself over the area
on Saturday. This will temporarily turn off the rain chances and
warm temps back up into the 90s. The upper level ridge will start
to diminish by Sunday and actually begin to reform over the
western U.S. Another weak frontal boundary will sag back southward
into the area late Sunday into Monday. Scattered rain chances and
storms will return. This boundary will stall right across the
region from northwest to southeast. With the upper level ridge
over the Four Corners Region of the west, this will put the Ozarks
Region in a "Ring of Fire" flow or potential MCS activity like
flow Monday night through Thursday morning with the better signal
Wednesday and Thursday. The weather pattern definitely looks more
unsettled and cooler temperatures next week. Highs temps will be
actually slightly below average in the lower 80s...maybe upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 710 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Pilots can expect rather active weather today with scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. While prevailing ceilings will
be VFR...ceilings and visibilities will be lower in or near the
showers.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KSGF 241213
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
713 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A weak frontal boundary has stalled out from west to east across
the Missouri Ozarks this morning. This surface feature along with
a very moist and rather unstable atmosphere along with the help of
some weak impulse mid level energy has caused additional scattered
showers and storms to redevelop across the western portion of the
area this morning. The boundary will begin to slow lift northward
today. Another ripple of energy in the westerlies will interact
with the boundary later this morning and this afternoon. This will
develop additional scattered storms by midday and early afternoon
across the central portion of the area and move off to the east.

Enough instability may cause a few strong to isolated severe
storms to develop. The main hazard will be downburst winds up to
60 mph along with lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Most of the
convection will be dwindling down by sunset this evening.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with the added rain and
clouds in the area. Highs on either side of 90 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The upper level ridge tries to reestablish itself over the area
on Saturday. This will temporarily turn off the rain chances and
warm temps back up into the 90s. The upper level ridge will start
to diminish by Sunday and actually begin to reform over the
western U.S. Another weak frontal boundary will sag back southward
into the area late Sunday into Monday. Scattered rain chances and
storms will return. This boundary will stall right across the
region from northwest to southeast. With the upper level ridge
over the Four Corners Region of the west, this will put the Ozarks
Region in a "Ring of Fire" flow or potential MCS activity like
flow Monday night through Thursday morning with the better signal
Wednesday and Thursday. The weather pattern definitely looks more
unsettled and cooler temperatures next week. Highs temps will be
actually slightly below average in the lower 80s...maybe upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 710 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Pilots can expect rather active weather today with scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. While prevailing ceilings will
be VFR...ceilings and visibilities will be lower in or near the
showers.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KEAX 241125
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Watching several areas of convection early this morning, most of
which are roughly aligned near a quasi-stationary boundary
stretching from southern MO into central KS. This boundary will lift
back north today and should reach northern Missouri by early
afternoon. Meanwhile a large convective complex over southwest KS and
northern OK has led to the development of a mesoscale convective
vortex near Dodge City. The RAP seems to be the only model resolving
this feature, and it brings it east-northeastward into eastern KS and
northwest MO later this afternoon as a broadening mid-level wave.
Should this feature persist and track this direction, which is still
not completely certain, the combo of this wave with the retreating
warm front could spark several showers and thunderstorms across
eastern KS into western MO later today. Shear values are weak, so
severe storms are unlikely with this activity, although moderate
instability and precipitable water values near 1.75" could support
some locally heavy rain in a few spots.

Convection will likely wane later this evening as the convectively-
induced upper wave pushes to the east of the area and the warm front
lifts into Iowa. This will set the stage for another hot day on
Saturday when temperatures will likely reach the middle 90s across
much of the forecast area with heat index values around 100.

By Saturday night a stronger wave will track across the Upper Midwest
and send a cold front into parts of the Lower Missouri Valley. Both
the NAM and the GFS are indicating copious amounts of moisture
transport ahead of the front with precipitable water values reaching
as high as 2.3". This moisture combined with the potential for deep
convergence along and ahead of the boundary could set the stage for
heavy rain across parts of northeast KS into north central MO
Saturday night. A lot of the heavy rain potential will depend on the
strength and orientation of a low-level jet progged to feed into the
boundary Saturday evening. If this feature is not as strong as
currently anticipated then the heavy rain threat will be lower.

Saturday night`s cold front looks to stall somewhere near the
Missouri River on Sunday, keeping the threat for precipitation
confined to areas from eastern KS into the MO Ozarks Sunday and
Sunday night. This boundary will then lift back north slightly early
next week as northwest upper flow develops across the region. This
could set the stage for one or more convective complexes tracking
across the area through the middle of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Thunderstorms are weakening across central KS this morning, but
activity will likely regenerate by late morning or afternoon as it
pushes toward eastern KS and western MO. Most activity should be
widely scattered in nature, so maintained VCTS wording for now.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel




000
FXUS63 KEAX 241125
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Watching several areas of convection early this morning, most of
which are roughly aligned near a quasi-stationary boundary
stretching from southern MO into central KS. This boundary will lift
back north today and should reach northern Missouri by early
afternoon. Meanwhile a large convective complex over southwest KS and
northern OK has led to the development of a mesoscale convective
vortex near Dodge City. The RAP seems to be the only model resolving
this feature, and it brings it east-northeastward into eastern KS and
northwest MO later this afternoon as a broadening mid-level wave.
Should this feature persist and track this direction, which is still
not completely certain, the combo of this wave with the retreating
warm front could spark several showers and thunderstorms across
eastern KS into western MO later today. Shear values are weak, so
severe storms are unlikely with this activity, although moderate
instability and precipitable water values near 1.75" could support
some locally heavy rain in a few spots.

Convection will likely wane later this evening as the convectively-
induced upper wave pushes to the east of the area and the warm front
lifts into Iowa. This will set the stage for another hot day on
Saturday when temperatures will likely reach the middle 90s across
much of the forecast area with heat index values around 100.

By Saturday night a stronger wave will track across the Upper Midwest
and send a cold front into parts of the Lower Missouri Valley. Both
the NAM and the GFS are indicating copious amounts of moisture
transport ahead of the front with precipitable water values reaching
as high as 2.3". This moisture combined with the potential for deep
convergence along and ahead of the boundary could set the stage for
heavy rain across parts of northeast KS into north central MO
Saturday night. A lot of the heavy rain potential will depend on the
strength and orientation of a low-level jet progged to feed into the
boundary Saturday evening. If this feature is not as strong as
currently anticipated then the heavy rain threat will be lower.

Saturday night`s cold front looks to stall somewhere near the
Missouri River on Sunday, keeping the threat for precipitation
confined to areas from eastern KS into the MO Ozarks Sunday and
Sunday night. This boundary will then lift back north slightly early
next week as northwest upper flow develops across the region. This
could set the stage for one or more convective complexes tracking
across the area through the middle of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Thunderstorms are weakening across central KS this morning, but
activity will likely regenerate by late morning or afternoon as it
pushes toward eastern KS and western MO. Most activity should be
widely scattered in nature, so maintained VCTS wording for now.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel




000
FXUS63 KLSX 241057
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
557 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The cold front has pushed through the CWA and become quasi-
stationary, extending from southern KS across far southern MO
into western KY early this morning, with weak surface high
pressure situated over the upper MS Valley. The MCS which was over
southwest MO yesterday evening has since dissipated with a few
spotty residual showers and diminishing clouds. Weather conditions
are largely expected to be tranquil across the area today with
high pressure dominating and bringing cooler temperatures and
lower humidity. The MCV currently in southwest MO is expected to
drift southeast, while the western portion of the front will lift
north across the Plains and western MO. Will have to keep an eye
on the region in the vicinity of the front from southeast MO into
south central MO for the possibility (albiet low) of a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A progressive upper air pattern will in place across the northern
tier of the CONUS through early next week as an upper trof
progresses steadily eastward, while retrogression will take place
across the southern tier as the upper high shifts from the
southeastern U.S. to the four corners region. A cold frontal
system will progress into the northern and central Plains tonight
associated with the migratory upper trof. In response to the
attendant pressure falls, our southern front will continue to
shift northward getting a more north-south orientation with time
and stretching through central MO by 12z Sat. The H85 flow tonight
becomes more southwesterly allowing moisture to increase, however
forcing is quite weak and there is no appreciable surface moisture
convergence with the front, so slight chance POPs seem
appropriate. The front continues to slide east towards the MS
River on Saturday bringing increasing heat and humidity. The air
mass looks quite unstable with little to no CIN in the afternoon
and certainly supportive of widely scattered-scattered
thunderstorms lasting into the evening as the front continues to
shift to the east across IL. A better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will come overnight on Saturday and into Sunday as
the cold front associated with the aforementioned progressive
northern tier upper trof moves into NW MO late Saturday night and
southward through the area on Sunday. I was a little conservative
on high temps on Sunday and that was due to the uncertainty of
ongoing showers and thunderstorms and daybreak and amount of cloud
cover and potential negative impact on heating. The cold front
will continue to progress southward on Sunday night and then
another secondary cold front moves through the area on Monday.

Large scale amplification marks the first half of next week as a
broad upper trof evolves in eastern NOAM, with the trof then
persisting into late week. If this holds true, then cooler/below
average temperatures can be expected Tuesday-Thursday. A series of
northwest flow short waves could also bring some thunderstorms
Wed-Thurs.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Cold front that moved through the region has become stationary
across southern MO. Cooler and drier air will prevail today.
Front will return north on Saturday with increasing moisture.
Forcing relatively week so don`t expect much development
overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: High pressure to the northeast will bring a
light northeast to variable wind today with drier air. Warm front
moves across Saturday. Forcing is weak so any precipitation that
develops with be scattered. Will leave forecast dry and VFR.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 240829
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Watching several areas of convection early this morning, most of
which are roughly aligned near a quasi-stationary boundary
stretching from southern MO into central KS. This boundary will lift
back north today and should reach northern Missouri by early
afternoon. Meanwhile a large convective complex over southwest KS and
northern OK has led to the development of a mesoscale convective
vortex near Dodge City. The RAP seems to be the only model resolving
this feature, and it brings it east-northeastward into eastern KS and
northwest MO later this afternoon as a broadening mid-level wave.
Should this feature persist and track this direction, which is still
not completely certain, the combo of this wave with the retreating
warm front could spark several showers and thunderstorms across
eastern KS into western MO later today. Shear values are weak, so
severe storms are unlikely with this activity, although moderate
instability and precipitable water values near 1.75" could support
some locally heavy rain in a few spots.

Convection will likely wane later this evening as the convectively-
induced upper wave pushes to the east of the area and the warm front
lifts into Iowa. This will set the stage for another hot day on
Saturday when temperatures will likely reach the middle 90s across
much of the forecast area with heat index values around 100.

By Saturday night a stronger wave will track across the Upper Midwest
and send a cold front into parts of the Lower Missouri Valley. Both
the NAM and the GFS are indicating copious amounts of moisture
transport ahead of the front with precipitable water values reaching
as high as 2.3". This moisture combined with the potential for deep
convergence along and ahead of the boundary could set the stage for
heavy rain across parts of northeast KS into north central MO
Saturday night. A lot of the heavy rain potential will depend on the
strength and orientation of a low-level jet progged to feed into the
boundary Saturday evening. If this feature is not as strong as
currently anticipated then the heavy rain threat will be lower.

Saturday night`s cold front looks to stall somewhere near the
Missouri River on Sunday, keeping the threat for precipitation
confined to areas from eastern KS into the MO Ozarks Sunday and
Sunday night. This boundary will then lift back north slightly early
next week as northwest upper flow develops across the region. This
could set the stage for one or more convective complexes tracking
across the area through the middle of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

The stationary boundary across southern Missouri, that was the focus
for thunderstorm development, will lift northward through the day
Friday. As it does, it may trigger a few thunderstorms. There is not
a clear indication at this time when the most likely time frame for
thunderstorms will be. So for now have just included a broad period
of VCTS. Outside of a thunderstorm over a TAF site, VFR conditions
are expected with winds becoming southeasterly by late this morning.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 240829
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Watching several areas of convection early this morning, most of
which are roughly aligned near a quasi-stationary boundary
stretching from southern MO into central KS. This boundary will lift
back north today and should reach northern Missouri by early
afternoon. Meanwhile a large convective complex over southwest KS and
northern OK has led to the development of a mesoscale convective
vortex near Dodge City. The RAP seems to be the only model resolving
this feature, and it brings it east-northeastward into eastern KS and
northwest MO later this afternoon as a broadening mid-level wave.
Should this feature persist and track this direction, which is still
not completely certain, the combo of this wave with the retreating
warm front could spark several showers and thunderstorms across
eastern KS into western MO later today. Shear values are weak, so
severe storms are unlikely with this activity, although moderate
instability and precipitable water values near 1.75" could support
some locally heavy rain in a few spots.

Convection will likely wane later this evening as the convectively-
induced upper wave pushes to the east of the area and the warm front
lifts into Iowa. This will set the stage for another hot day on
Saturday when temperatures will likely reach the middle 90s across
much of the forecast area with heat index values around 100.

By Saturday night a stronger wave will track across the Upper Midwest
and send a cold front into parts of the Lower Missouri Valley. Both
the NAM and the GFS are indicating copious amounts of moisture
transport ahead of the front with precipitable water values reaching
as high as 2.3". This moisture combined with the potential for deep
convergence along and ahead of the boundary could set the stage for
heavy rain across parts of northeast KS into north central MO
Saturday night. A lot of the heavy rain potential will depend on the
strength and orientation of a low-level jet progged to feed into the
boundary Saturday evening. If this feature is not as strong as
currently anticipated then the heavy rain threat will be lower.

Saturday night`s cold front looks to stall somewhere near the
Missouri River on Sunday, keeping the threat for precipitation
confined to areas from eastern KS into the MO Ozarks Sunday and
Sunday night. This boundary will then lift back north slightly early
next week as northwest upper flow develops across the region. This
could set the stage for one or more convective complexes tracking
across the area through the middle of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

The stationary boundary across southern Missouri, that was the focus
for thunderstorm development, will lift northward through the day
Friday. As it does, it may trigger a few thunderstorms. There is not
a clear indication at this time when the most likely time frame for
thunderstorms will be. So for now have just included a broad period
of VCTS. Outside of a thunderstorm over a TAF site, VFR conditions
are expected with winds becoming southeasterly by late this morning.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB




000
FXUS63 KLSX 240827
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
327 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The cold front has pushed through the CWA and become quasi-
stationary, extending from southern KS across far southern MO
into western KY early this morning, with weak surface high
pressure situated over the upper MS Valley. The MCS which was over
southwest MO yesterday evening has since dissipated with a few
spotty residual showers and diminishing clouds. Weather conditions
are largely expected to be tranquil across the area today with
high pressure dominating and bringing cooler temperatures and
lower humidity. The MCV currently in southwest MO is expected to
drift southeast, while the western portion of the front will lift
north across the Plains and western MO. Will have to keep an eye
on the region in the vicinity of the front from southeast MO into
south central MO for the possibility (albiet low) of a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A progressive upper air pattern will in place across the northern
tier of the CONUS through early next week as an upper trof
progresses steadily eastward, while retrogression will take place
across the southern tier as the upper high shifts from the
southeastern U.S. to the four corners region. A cold frontal
system will progress into the northern and central Plains tonight
associated with the migratory upper trof. In response to the
attendant pressure falls, our southern front will continue to
shift northward getting a more north-south orientation with time
and stretching through central MO by 12z Sat. The H85 flow tonight
becomes more southwesterly allowing moisture to increase, however
forcing is quite weak and there is no appreciable surface moisture
convergence with the front, so slight chance POPs seem
appropriate. The front continues to slide east towards the MS
River on Saturday bringing increasing heat and humidity. The air
mass looks quite unstable with little to no CIN in the afternoon
and certainly supportive of widely scattered-scattered
thunderstorms lasting into the evening as the front continues to
shift to the east across IL. A better threat of showers and
thunderstorms will come overnight on Saturday and into Sunday as
the cold front associated with the aforementioned progressive
northern tier upper trof moves into NW MO late Saturday night and
southward through the area on Sunday. I was a little conservative
on high temps on Sunday and that was due to the uncertainty of
ongoing showers and thunderstorms and daybreak and amount of cloud
cover and potential negative impact on heating. The cold front
will continue to progress southward on Sunday night and then
another secondary cold front moves through the area on Monday.

Large scale amplification marks the first half of next week as a
broad upper trof evolves in eastern NOAM, with the trof then
persisting into late week. If this holds true, then cooler/below
average temperatures can be expected Tuesday-Thursday. A series of
northwest flow short waves could also bring some thunderstorms
Wed-Thurs.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Even though cold front has moved south of taf sites, storm complex
over southern Missouri has created a large cirrus shield. So will
have broken to overcast high clouds through daybreak, then thin
out. Obs and satellite pics still show some scattered mvfr clouds
slowly sinking south over Iowa, so kept scattered mvfr clouds at
KUIN from 10z to 14z. Otherwise, light and variable winds becoming
south to southeast as front moves back as a warm front during the
day on Friday. Could see some activity with front, but hard to pin
down coverage and timing, so kept tafs dry for now.

Specifics for KSTL:
Even though cold front has moved south of metro area, storm
complex over southern Missouri has created a large cirrus shield.
So will have broken to overcast high clouds through daybreak, then
thin out. With cirrus shield, looking less likely for any fog
formation in river valleys, so removed mention at KSUS and KCPS.
Otherwise, light and variable winds becoming southeast as front
moves back as a warm front Friday afternoon. Could see some
activity with front, but hard to pin down coverage and timing, so
kept taf dry for now.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 240813
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
313 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...More Scattered Showers and T`Storms Expected Across The Area
Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A weak frontal boundary has stalled out from west to east across
the Missouri Ozarks this morning. This surface feature along with
a very moist and rather unstable atmosphere along with the help of
some weak impulse mid level energy has caused additional scattered
showers and storms to redevelop across the western portion of the
area this morning. The boundary will begin to slow lift northward
today. Another ripple of energy in the westerlies will interact
with the boundary later this morning and this afternoon. This will
develop additional scattered storms by midday and early afternoon
across the central portion of the area and move off to the east.

Enough instability may cause a few strong to isolated severe
storms to develop. The main hazard will be downburst winds up to
60 mph along with lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Most of the
convection will be dwindling down by sunset this evening.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler today with the added rain and
clouds in the area. Highs on either side of 90 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The upper level ridge tries to reestablish itself over the area
on Saturday. This will temporarily turn off the rain chances and
warm temps back up into the 90s. The upper level ridge will start
to diminish by Sunday and actually begin to reform over the
western U.S. Another weak frontal boundary will sag back southward
into the area late Sunday into Monday. Scattered rain chances and
storms will return. This boundary will stall right across the
region from northwest to southeast. With the upper level ridge
over the Four Corners Region of the west, this will put the Ozarks
Region in a "Ring of Fire" flow or potential MCS activity like
flow Monday night through Thursday morning with the better signal
Wednesday and Thursday. The weather pattern definitely looks more
unsettled and cooler temperatures next week. Highs temps will be
actually slightly below average in the lower 80s...maybe upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Convection has shifted east of the terminals but will continue
VCTS at BBG for a couple of hours with a couple of showers/storms
just east of the terminal there. Otherwise, expecting mainly
mid/upper level cloud cover overnight for the terminals.
Convection out west in the high Plains could affect the area on
Friday with shortwave energy moving into the area. Have some
afternoon prob30`s going for sgf/jln at the moment.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 240445
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

In the near term the main concern is thunderstorm development. A
sfc wind shift/weak cold front has moved south into southeast KS
and southern MO while a weak upper level vort/mcv is tracking
slowly east into southeast KS. While some high resolution models
have been too aggressively breaking out storms, the general
consensus still seems to look good to develop scattered storms
late this afternoon in the convergence of the frontal zone.
MLCAPEs of around 3000 j/kg should support robust updrafts into
this evening. Vertical shear of 15-20kt will support pulse storms
and some multicell clusters with damaging straight line winds and
one inch hail the main expected hazards.

A severe tstm watch has been issued for our se KS counties where
lift is expected to be somewhat enhanced by the approaching
mcv/vort max.

The convection with the remnant vort max will continue to some
degree into the overnight hours and into Fri. Will have to watch
for the potential for localized flash flooding as the vort max
moves in with higher moisture content/precipitable water values.

No plans for any further heat advisories with clouds and ongoing
rain/tstms expected for many areas on Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rising mid level heights and very warm sfc temperatures are
expected Saturday with mainly diurnally driven pulse storms still
possible but with more limited coverage. The tail and of a
vigorous shortwave moving across the north central tier of the
U.S. and southern Canada will force another front south, reaching
IA/nw MO/KS by early Sunday. This front looks to stall and weaken
Sunday so it looks like organized convection will stay off to our
north with fairly warm midlevel temperatures remaining in place
over our area. Still we will have some limited possibility for
isolated convection.

The overall pattern is still expected to transition over the CONUS
next week with an upper ridge retrograding/building out west
allowing gradually cooler sfc air to move into our area. With a
sfc front expected off to our southwest and south, we may see
mesoscale convective complexes occasionally move from the Plains
into the Ozarks region, particularly Wed/Thu as impulses ride
southeast on the east side of the upper ridge. Will maintain rain
chances for much of this period with cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Convection has shifted east of the terminals but will continue
VCTS at BBG for a couple of hours with a couple of showers/storms
just east of the terminal there. Otherwise, expecting mainly
mid/upper level cloud cover overnight for the terminals.
Convection out west in the high Plains could affect the area on
Friday with shortwave energy moving into the area. Have some
afternoon prob30`s going for sgf/jln at the moment.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KLSX 240442
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1142 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

At 19z, a cold front was located from just N of Salem, IL to near
Rolla, MO, intersecting portions of the southeastern and southern
STL metro area.  This is evidenced by a thin line of agitated CU
clouds.  Dewpoints near and ahead of the cold front are in the mid
70s, but do tail off behind the front into the 60s approximately 50-
100 miles behind the front, where the CU cloud field dissipates.
These drier dewpoints are already working into the NW STL metro
area.  Additional lines of agitated CU clouds exist further south
from this cold front, but have really struggled to produce any
convective rain thus far with the limited convergence.  Temps
reached the low-mid 90s over much of the region, but the difference
maker was the dewpoints in where the heat index values exceeded
105F+ or not.

The cold front will continue to sag southward this evening and will
maintain a small threat for a shower or thunderstorm over southeast
MO during that time, with dry wx expected overnight.  Skies should
also be clear for most areas, although it is possible some clouds
currently over northeast IA and southern WI may sneak down into the
Quincy, IL area early Friday morning.  Given the degree to which
dewpoints drying has slowed, the higher MOS min temps are preferred
although there is not much difference between the two.

The cold front is already buckling back to the north as a warm front
over western MO Friday morning and will approach sufficiently close
to our region to justify a small PoP for central and southeast MO
Friday afternoon.  The higher MET MOS values were preferred for max
temps.

TES

.LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

(Friday Night)

Focus on Friday night will be on remnant stalled boundary which
looks to be near the western CWA border at 0000 UTC. Convergence
along front however by this time will have weakened with the
boundary continuing to wash out and lose its identity. That
combined with loss of some instability and weak/nebulous forcing
aloft suggests coverage of storms will likely be isolated in
nature and they would likely fade through the nighttime hours.

Temperatures will once again be mild and above normal yet
again...though not as hot as what we have seen the past few nights.
Expect lows across the area to be in the low to mid 70s.

(Saturday - Monday)

Summertime heat and humidity will once again be the story for this
weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will likely be
in the upper 60s to mid 70s once again which will yield heat index
readings each afternoon above 100 degrees. Additional heat
advisories may be warranted in time. While confidence in dewpoints
this weekend is medium to high...temperatures could be a bit cooler
than currently forecast due to clouds/precipitation chances.

A cold front will approach the bi-state area from northwest to
southeast beginning late Saturday night and slowly move through the
area on Sunday. This will be a slightly higher chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. However...like this past fropa...fairly
stout cap...weak sfc convergence...and best mid/upper air forcing
staying well to the north and east will likely preclude any
widespread convection.

Front will continue to slowly move southward and may become quasi-
stationary and could provide the focus for additional thunderstorms
across southern and western portions of the area. Highs on Monday
will still be warm...in the low to mid 90s...but dewpoints look a
bit lower behind the front so it may not feel as hot as the weekend.

(Tuesday - Next Thursday)

Main weather story heading into the middle of next week continues to
look like a cooler and potentially wetter pattern. CWA will be under
northwest flow aloft along with 850-hPa temperatures dipping back
into the mid teens. However...combination of shortwaves transversing
within the NW flow aloft and low-level warm/moist advection
perpendicular to the baroclinic zone will likely lead to multiple
rounds of showers/thunderstorms (possible MCSs). Exact location and
timing however will be highly uncertain at least over the next
couple of days. For now...have chance PoPs and highs heading back to
near 80 degrees on Wednesday.

Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Even though cold front has moved south of taf sites, storm complex
over southern Missouri has created a large cirrus shield. So will
have broken to overcast high clouds through daybreak, then thin
out. Obs and satellite pics still show some scattered mvfr clouds
slowly sinking south over Iowa, so kept scattered mvfr clouds at
KUIN from 10z to 14z. Otherwise, light and variable winds becoming
south to southeast as front moves back as a warm front during the
day on Friday. Could see some activity with front, but hard to pin
down coverage and timing, so kept tafs dry for now.

Specifics for KSTL:
Even though cold front has moved south of metro area, storm
complex over southern Missouri has created a large cirrus shield.
So will have broken to overcast high clouds through daybreak, then
thin out. With cirrus shield, looking less likely for any fog
formation in river valleys, so removed mention at KSUS and KCPS.
Otherwise, light and variable winds becoming southeast as front
moves back as a warm front Friday afternoon. Could see some
activity with front, but hard to pin down coverage and timing, so
kept taf dry for now.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 240442
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1142 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

At 19z, a cold front was located from just N of Salem, IL to near
Rolla, MO, intersecting portions of the southeastern and southern
STL metro area.  This is evidenced by a thin line of agitated CU
clouds.  Dewpoints near and ahead of the cold front are in the mid
70s, but do tail off behind the front into the 60s approximately 50-
100 miles behind the front, where the CU cloud field dissipates.
These drier dewpoints are already working into the NW STL metro
area.  Additional lines of agitated CU clouds exist further south
from this cold front, but have really struggled to produce any
convective rain thus far with the limited convergence.  Temps
reached the low-mid 90s over much of the region, but the difference
maker was the dewpoints in where the heat index values exceeded
105F+ or not.

The cold front will continue to sag southward this evening and will
maintain a small threat for a shower or thunderstorm over southeast
MO during that time, with dry wx expected overnight.  Skies should
also be clear for most areas, although it is possible some clouds
currently over northeast IA and southern WI may sneak down into the
Quincy, IL area early Friday morning.  Given the degree to which
dewpoints drying has slowed, the higher MOS min temps are preferred
although there is not much difference between the two.

The cold front is already buckling back to the north as a warm front
over western MO Friday morning and will approach sufficiently close
to our region to justify a small PoP for central and southeast MO
Friday afternoon.  The higher MET MOS values were preferred for max
temps.

TES

.LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

(Friday Night)

Focus on Friday night will be on remnant stalled boundary which
looks to be near the western CWA border at 0000 UTC. Convergence
along front however by this time will have weakened with the
boundary continuing to wash out and lose its identity. That
combined with loss of some instability and weak/nebulous forcing
aloft suggests coverage of storms will likely be isolated in
nature and they would likely fade through the nighttime hours.

Temperatures will once again be mild and above normal yet
again...though not as hot as what we have seen the past few nights.
Expect lows across the area to be in the low to mid 70s.

(Saturday - Monday)

Summertime heat and humidity will once again be the story for this
weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will likely be
in the upper 60s to mid 70s once again which will yield heat index
readings each afternoon above 100 degrees. Additional heat
advisories may be warranted in time. While confidence in dewpoints
this weekend is medium to high...temperatures could be a bit cooler
than currently forecast due to clouds/precipitation chances.

A cold front will approach the bi-state area from northwest to
southeast beginning late Saturday night and slowly move through the
area on Sunday. This will be a slightly higher chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. However...like this past fropa...fairly
stout cap...weak sfc convergence...and best mid/upper air forcing
staying well to the north and east will likely preclude any
widespread convection.

Front will continue to slowly move southward and may become quasi-
stationary and could provide the focus for additional thunderstorms
across southern and western portions of the area. Highs on Monday
will still be warm...in the low to mid 90s...but dewpoints look a
bit lower behind the front so it may not feel as hot as the weekend.

(Tuesday - Next Thursday)

Main weather story heading into the middle of next week continues to
look like a cooler and potentially wetter pattern. CWA will be under
northwest flow aloft along with 850-hPa temperatures dipping back
into the mid teens. However...combination of shortwaves transversing
within the NW flow aloft and low-level warm/moist advection
perpendicular to the baroclinic zone will likely lead to multiple
rounds of showers/thunderstorms (possible MCSs). Exact location and
timing however will be highly uncertain at least over the next
couple of days. For now...have chance PoPs and highs heading back to
near 80 degrees on Wednesday.

Gosselin
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Even though cold front has moved south of taf sites, storm complex
over southern Missouri has created a large cirrus shield. So will
have broken to overcast high clouds through daybreak, then thin
out. Obs and satellite pics still show some scattered mvfr clouds
slowly sinking south over Iowa, so kept scattered mvfr clouds at
KUIN from 10z to 14z. Otherwise, light and variable winds becoming
south to southeast as front moves back as a warm front during the
day on Friday. Could see some activity with front, but hard to pin
down coverage and timing, so kept tafs dry for now.

Specifics for KSTL:
Even though cold front has moved south of metro area, storm
complex over southern Missouri has created a large cirrus shield.
So will have broken to overcast high clouds through daybreak, then
thin out. With cirrus shield, looking less likely for any fog
formation in river valleys, so removed mention at KSUS and KCPS.
Otherwise, light and variable winds becoming southeast as front
moves back as a warm front Friday afternoon. Could see some
activity with front, but hard to pin down coverage and timing, so
kept taf dry for now.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 240437
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 435 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

An MCV tracking across south-central Kansas this afternoon will be
the near term concern for later this evening. Convection developing
along the eastern edge of the MCV will track along a east-west
orientated quasi-stationary front positioned generally along a line
from Wichita to St. Louis. Main concerns with this complex will be
damaging winds with a lower potential for large hail with some of
the stronger updrafts. The complex looks to track along the front as
it progresses eastward in an area of CAPE values pushing 3000 J/KG.
Overall shear profile is not very impressive, however, with easterly
winds just north of the front, lower level directional shear in this
area may allow for the possibility of a quick spin-up or two along
the northern edge of the complex. As we head into the overnight
hours and instability decreases, convection related to the MCV
should decrease both in overall strength and area.

With the exception of the MCV...convection chances later this
evening and into Friday morning is a bit uncertain as model guidance
has backed off across the CWA. LLJ and better forcing will be well
east of the CWA across central Kansas and up through Nebraska, thus
have trimmed back pops during the overnight period.

Quasi-stationary front will begin lifting northward as a warm front
through the morning Friday ahead of a vigorous trough moving into
the Pacific NW. Instability will increase through the morning as
higher dewpoints move back into the region behind the warm front.
Convection chances will increase by late morning and early afternoon
across the warm sector. With CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/KG by
tomorrow afternoon, could see some stronger storms develop with
large hail and damaging winds. LLJ will increase overnight Friday
and help sustain convection in the warm sector.

Several rounds of precip will be possible through the weekend as
cold front associated with the aforementioned northern stream trough
nears and then moves through the CWA. Return surface flow will allow
good moisture transport up into the region ahead of the inbound cold
front.

Upper level ridge will flatten then shift back over the western US
by early next week, placing the Central Plains in northwest flow
aloft. This will hopefully result in a bit cooler temperatures for
the area through at least mid-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

The stationary boundary across southern Missouri, that was the focus
for thunderstorm development, will lift northward through the day
Friday. As it does, it may trigger a few thunderstorms. There is not
a clear indication at this time when the most likely time frame for
thunderstorms will be. So for now have just included a broad period
of VCTS. Outside of a thunderstorm over a TAF site, VFR conditions
are expected with winds becoming southeasterly by late this morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 240437
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 435 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

An MCV tracking across south-central Kansas this afternoon will be
the near term concern for later this evening. Convection developing
along the eastern edge of the MCV will track along a east-west
orientated quasi-stationary front positioned generally along a line
from Wichita to St. Louis. Main concerns with this complex will be
damaging winds with a lower potential for large hail with some of
the stronger updrafts. The complex looks to track along the front as
it progresses eastward in an area of CAPE values pushing 3000 J/KG.
Overall shear profile is not very impressive, however, with easterly
winds just north of the front, lower level directional shear in this
area may allow for the possibility of a quick spin-up or two along
the northern edge of the complex. As we head into the overnight
hours and instability decreases, convection related to the MCV
should decrease both in overall strength and area.

With the exception of the MCV...convection chances later this
evening and into Friday morning is a bit uncertain as model guidance
has backed off across the CWA. LLJ and better forcing will be well
east of the CWA across central Kansas and up through Nebraska, thus
have trimmed back pops during the overnight period.

Quasi-stationary front will begin lifting northward as a warm front
through the morning Friday ahead of a vigorous trough moving into
the Pacific NW. Instability will increase through the morning as
higher dewpoints move back into the region behind the warm front.
Convection chances will increase by late morning and early afternoon
across the warm sector. With CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/KG by
tomorrow afternoon, could see some stronger storms develop with
large hail and damaging winds. LLJ will increase overnight Friday
and help sustain convection in the warm sector.

Several rounds of precip will be possible through the weekend as
cold front associated with the aforementioned northern stream trough
nears and then moves through the CWA. Return surface flow will allow
good moisture transport up into the region ahead of the inbound cold
front.

Upper level ridge will flatten then shift back over the western US
by early next week, placing the Central Plains in northwest flow
aloft. This will hopefully result in a bit cooler temperatures for
the area through at least mid-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

The stationary boundary across southern Missouri, that was the focus
for thunderstorm development, will lift northward through the day
Friday. As it does, it may trigger a few thunderstorms. There is not
a clear indication at this time when the most likely time frame for
thunderstorms will be. So for now have just included a broad period
of VCTS. Outside of a thunderstorm over a TAF site, VFR conditions
are expected with winds becoming southeasterly by late this morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...PMM
Aviation...CDB




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