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000
FXUS63 KSGF 080807
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
207 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...It Will Look and Feel Like Winter Today Across Much of the
Missouri Ozarks...Windy and Cold With Scattered Snow Showers...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0134 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

A strong deep upper level trough is currently swirling over the
Midwest and Great Lakes Region this morning. Gusty northwesterly
winds this morning is ushering in much colder weather along with
scattered light snow showers across portions of the area.
Temperatures will slowly fall during the day today with
temperatures in the lower 30s by this afternoon. Gusty winds up
to 35 to 45 mph can be expected especially areas along and west of
the Highway 65 corridor. This is where the wind advisory is
currently in effect.

Bands of scattered light snow showers will persist off and on
today across much of the Ozarks. Overall the snow showers will be
very light but there may be brief times where it will come down at
a higher rate. Very little to no accumulation expected. There may
be a light dusting to a couple tenths of an inch possible across
portions of Central Missouri into the Eastern Ozarks. A slick spot
of two can not be ruled out on roads or bridges today but
significant travel impacts are not expected.

Wind chills today will be in the teens and single digits. Snow
showers will end from west to east this evening and some clearing
of the clouds will occur from west to east by tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 0134 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

The main energy associated with the upper level trough begins to
move eastward out of our region on Tuesday. We will remain in a
deep northerly flow in the mid to upper levels. Temperatures will
remain below average and cold through mid week but the weather
will be dry. A dry airmass with breezy winds will be a fire
weather concern. See the fire weather section below for elevated
grassland fire conditions through midweek.

Slight height rises Thursday and Friday will allow temperatures to
moderate by to near seasonable levels. But recent model runs have
changed a little bit over the last 24 hours for end of the week
and next week. Guidance suggest the northerly flow will sharpen up
again by next weekend with another cold front moving through late
Friday.

A Canadian airmass will settle back in keeping temperatures on
the chilly side. There is some uncertainty by the end of the 7 day
period heading into early next week on guidance. GFS keeps the
area milder and dry while the latest ECMWF run shows a clipper
like system bringing some wintry precip to the area. Will lean
more with the ECMWF guidance with a chance of precip late Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Cold front pushed through during the past hour at SGF and
northwest winds kicked up into the 20 to 30 kt range. Strong
pressure gradient over the area will remain in place through the
night and much of Monday driving in the colder air mass. A few
snow showers will be possible periodically during the day Monday.
Have gone mostly with VFR ceilings, but could see some MVFR
ceilings during the afternoon Monday. Winds will however be the
main aviation hazard through the period and will likely see gusts
over 30kts at times, especially during the day Monday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for MOZ055-066>068-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA



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000
FXUS63 KLSX 080541
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1141 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE:
Issued at 936 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Isolated-scattered very light rain showers and sprinkles have
affected portions of the area this evening. Looking
upstream...radar imagery shows streaks of snow across the mid-
Missouri Valley. This activity is expected to move south and east
into our region overnight tonight. Some uptick in the intensity
still seems probable with some of the snow showers briefly
reducing visibilities very late tonight/early Monday morning.
Pinpointing where and when is still futile even at this range...so
maintained high chance PoPs beginning late tonight and lasting
into Monday.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Between a passage of the initial cold front thru the region by early
this afternoon and/or thickening cloud cover, temps have largely
already hit their daily maxes and will either stagnate or slowly
begin to fall, after having resulted in another mild day, with max
temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A strengthening upper LOW over the arrowhead region of MN will
help govern the tracks of various disturbances around it over the
next couple of days as it digs the flow to be more from the N-NW.

The first few disturbances are starting to come into focus now
and we can, with some degree of confidence, focus on the tracks and
timing.  The first is over northwest MO and is helping to kick off
some pcpn echo over the MO-IA border just downstream from it.  This
is liquid pcpn.  This disturbance will essentially drop straight
southward, with some east movement, and should help to perhaps kick
off light rain or sprinkles this evening for parts of central and
southeast MO, and perhaps into far southern IL.  The pcpn-type is
expected to remain liquid with temps still in the 40s for most areas
during this time.

The second disturbance is located near Sioux Falls, SD (KFSD), and
will have more of a true SE movement to it, likely tracking thru the
heart of our CWA from late this evening thru the overnight.  This
will have better coverage pcpn with it, and due to its forward
speed, now looks like it will outrun the surface cold air a bit and
probably begin as rain showers for an hour or so, then changing to
snow showers.  Overall preferred warmer MOS temps but diffs were
very small, and temps by daybreak at most locations will be at or
below freezing.

The third disturbance is more directly associated with the storm
center over the MN arrowhead, and as that digs, will track more S
initially then SE late, and will likely affect areas near the MS
river and east during Monday morning and early afternoon.
Pcpn-types here will be all snow, with temps probably not rising from
previous nighttime mins at all, and probably losing a few degrees by
mid-afternoon.

Low level CAA will strengthen significantly after midnight tonight
and will remain decently strong thru the day on Monday, and will
also be accompanied by an increase in NW wind and gusts to 35mph
most locations with some 40mph possible in northeast and central MO.

The wind combined with the scattered snow showers that will be
ongoing will result in rapidly fluctuating visibilities, but lower
liquid to snow ratios than one might expect for cold air like this,
due to the well sifted nature of any snow that does accumulate, and
leaned strongly towards 12-15:1 versus te model suggested 20:1.
Snow accums for most locations should be just a dusting of snow, but
where discrete snow bands can set up and persist for a period of
time, we could see localized accums of an inch or more.  Any
identification of the location of these discrete snow bands will
likely have to be now-casted, with the forecast amounts strongly
weighted towards the median, and not the exception.

Due to the anticipated localized nature of any accums beyond a
dusting, no winter headlines will be issued at this time.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Deep cyclonic flow and additional, yet sheared, disturbances will
only allow the threat for snow showers to slowly retreat eastward
and may allow flurries well into Tuesday.  One trend that all of the
models have settled on is for this Arctic airmass to build over our
region first before heading east, and will thus prolong its presence
here--likely into Thursday--as well as prolonging the moderately
strong wind with gusts at times at least into Wednesday.  This will
create the threat for wind chill advisory criteria (-15F) to be met
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for some areas in northern
MO and central IL.

Otherwise, NW flow aloft continues into next weekend.  Very low
confidence on any additional wx-making disturbances track/timing and
have kept the forecast dry because of it.  Something that could
change in a couple of days, so stay tuned.  Temps remain below
average, though, with perhaps some recovery back to near average by
Thursday-Friday.

Of better confidence is another intrusion of Arctic air for late
week, around Friday, and may continue into early next week.  And
that gets me to my next item:  models have, for some time, been
advertising a system that will affect us in mid-February, but true
to form for our region, can`t make up their mind on how much cold
air will be here and what form most of the pcpn will take.
Something to watch and stay tuned for as we move thru the upcoming
week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Upper-level trough continues to dig southward and this will help
bring both much colder air to the region but also some
predominantly scattered snow showers through much of the period.
These snow showers may briefly reduce visibilities and ceilings
down into IFR. Otherwise...expect gusty NW winds along with a
high-end MVFR ceilings along with the snow showers/flurries.


Specifics for KSTL:

Timing of MVFR ceilings and snow showers still appears to be in
the predawn hours of Monday morning. Once again...some of these
snow showers may be heavy enough at times through Monday morning
to reduce visibilities and ceilings down to IFR. Best chances of
these heavier snow showers/squalls for the terminal attm appear to
be in the 1000 and 1600 UTC range give or take a couple of hours.
Otherwise...NW winds will pick up with gusts near 30 knots along
with ceilings between 2500 and 3000 ft AGL.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 080541
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1141 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE:
Issued at 936 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Isolated-scattered very light rain showers and sprinkles have
affected portions of the area this evening. Looking
upstream...radar imagery shows streaks of snow across the mid-
Missouri Valley. This activity is expected to move south and east
into our region overnight tonight. Some uptick in the intensity
still seems probable with some of the snow showers briefly
reducing visibilities very late tonight/early Monday morning.
Pinpointing where and when is still futile even at this range...so
maintained high chance PoPs beginning late tonight and lasting
into Monday.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Between a passage of the initial cold front thru the region by early
this afternoon and/or thickening cloud cover, temps have largely
already hit their daily maxes and will either stagnate or slowly
begin to fall, after having resulted in another mild day, with max
temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A strengthening upper LOW over the arrowhead region of MN will
help govern the tracks of various disturbances around it over the
next couple of days as it digs the flow to be more from the N-NW.

The first few disturbances are starting to come into focus now
and we can, with some degree of confidence, focus on the tracks and
timing.  The first is over northwest MO and is helping to kick off
some pcpn echo over the MO-IA border just downstream from it.  This
is liquid pcpn.  This disturbance will essentially drop straight
southward, with some east movement, and should help to perhaps kick
off light rain or sprinkles this evening for parts of central and
southeast MO, and perhaps into far southern IL.  The pcpn-type is
expected to remain liquid with temps still in the 40s for most areas
during this time.

The second disturbance is located near Sioux Falls, SD (KFSD), and
will have more of a true SE movement to it, likely tracking thru the
heart of our CWA from late this evening thru the overnight.  This
will have better coverage pcpn with it, and due to its forward
speed, now looks like it will outrun the surface cold air a bit and
probably begin as rain showers for an hour or so, then changing to
snow showers.  Overall preferred warmer MOS temps but diffs were
very small, and temps by daybreak at most locations will be at or
below freezing.

The third disturbance is more directly associated with the storm
center over the MN arrowhead, and as that digs, will track more S
initially then SE late, and will likely affect areas near the MS
river and east during Monday morning and early afternoon.
Pcpn-types here will be all snow, with temps probably not rising from
previous nighttime mins at all, and probably losing a few degrees by
mid-afternoon.

Low level CAA will strengthen significantly after midnight tonight
and will remain decently strong thru the day on Monday, and will
also be accompanied by an increase in NW wind and gusts to 35mph
most locations with some 40mph possible in northeast and central MO.

The wind combined with the scattered snow showers that will be
ongoing will result in rapidly fluctuating visibilities, but lower
liquid to snow ratios than one might expect for cold air like this,
due to the well sifted nature of any snow that does accumulate, and
leaned strongly towards 12-15:1 versus te model suggested 20:1.
Snow accums for most locations should be just a dusting of snow, but
where discrete snow bands can set up and persist for a period of
time, we could see localized accums of an inch or more.  Any
identification of the location of these discrete snow bands will
likely have to be now-casted, with the forecast amounts strongly
weighted towards the median, and not the exception.

Due to the anticipated localized nature of any accums beyond a
dusting, no winter headlines will be issued at this time.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Deep cyclonic flow and additional, yet sheared, disturbances will
only allow the threat for snow showers to slowly retreat eastward
and may allow flurries well into Tuesday.  One trend that all of the
models have settled on is for this Arctic airmass to build over our
region first before heading east, and will thus prolong its presence
here--likely into Thursday--as well as prolonging the moderately
strong wind with gusts at times at least into Wednesday.  This will
create the threat for wind chill advisory criteria (-15F) to be met
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for some areas in northern
MO and central IL.

Otherwise, NW flow aloft continues into next weekend.  Very low
confidence on any additional wx-making disturbances track/timing and
have kept the forecast dry because of it.  Something that could
change in a couple of days, so stay tuned.  Temps remain below
average, though, with perhaps some recovery back to near average by
Thursday-Friday.

Of better confidence is another intrusion of Arctic air for late
week, around Friday, and may continue into early next week.  And
that gets me to my next item:  models have, for some time, been
advertising a system that will affect us in mid-February, but true
to form for our region, can`t make up their mind on how much cold
air will be here and what form most of the pcpn will take.
Something to watch and stay tuned for as we move thru the upcoming
week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Upper-level trough continues to dig southward and this will help
bring both much colder air to the region but also some
predominantly scattered snow showers through much of the period.
These snow showers may briefly reduce visibilities and ceilings
down into IFR. Otherwise...expect gusty NW winds along with a
high-end MVFR ceilings along with the snow showers/flurries.


Specifics for KSTL:

Timing of MVFR ceilings and snow showers still appears to be in
the predawn hours of Monday morning. Once again...some of these
snow showers may be heavy enough at times through Monday morning
to reduce visibilities and ceilings down to IFR. Best chances of
these heavier snow showers/squalls for the terminal attm appear to
be in the 1000 and 1600 UTC range give or take a couple of hours.
Otherwise...NW winds will pick up with gusts near 30 knots along
with ceilings between 2500 and 3000 ft AGL.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 080541
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1141 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE:
Issued at 936 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Isolated-scattered very light rain showers and sprinkles have
affected portions of the area this evening. Looking
upstream...radar imagery shows streaks of snow across the mid-
Missouri Valley. This activity is expected to move south and east
into our region overnight tonight. Some uptick in the intensity
still seems probable with some of the snow showers briefly
reducing visibilities very late tonight/early Monday morning.
Pinpointing where and when is still futile even at this range...so
maintained high chance PoPs beginning late tonight and lasting
into Monday.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Between a passage of the initial cold front thru the region by early
this afternoon and/or thickening cloud cover, temps have largely
already hit their daily maxes and will either stagnate or slowly
begin to fall, after having resulted in another mild day, with max
temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A strengthening upper LOW over the arrowhead region of MN will
help govern the tracks of various disturbances around it over the
next couple of days as it digs the flow to be more from the N-NW.

The first few disturbances are starting to come into focus now
and we can, with some degree of confidence, focus on the tracks and
timing.  The first is over northwest MO and is helping to kick off
some pcpn echo over the MO-IA border just downstream from it.  This
is liquid pcpn.  This disturbance will essentially drop straight
southward, with some east movement, and should help to perhaps kick
off light rain or sprinkles this evening for parts of central and
southeast MO, and perhaps into far southern IL.  The pcpn-type is
expected to remain liquid with temps still in the 40s for most areas
during this time.

The second disturbance is located near Sioux Falls, SD (KFSD), and
will have more of a true SE movement to it, likely tracking thru the
heart of our CWA from late this evening thru the overnight.  This
will have better coverage pcpn with it, and due to its forward
speed, now looks like it will outrun the surface cold air a bit and
probably begin as rain showers for an hour or so, then changing to
snow showers.  Overall preferred warmer MOS temps but diffs were
very small, and temps by daybreak at most locations will be at or
below freezing.

The third disturbance is more directly associated with the storm
center over the MN arrowhead, and as that digs, will track more S
initially then SE late, and will likely affect areas near the MS
river and east during Monday morning and early afternoon.
Pcpn-types here will be all snow, with temps probably not rising from
previous nighttime mins at all, and probably losing a few degrees by
mid-afternoon.

Low level CAA will strengthen significantly after midnight tonight
and will remain decently strong thru the day on Monday, and will
also be accompanied by an increase in NW wind and gusts to 35mph
most locations with some 40mph possible in northeast and central MO.

The wind combined with the scattered snow showers that will be
ongoing will result in rapidly fluctuating visibilities, but lower
liquid to snow ratios than one might expect for cold air like this,
due to the well sifted nature of any snow that does accumulate, and
leaned strongly towards 12-15:1 versus te model suggested 20:1.
Snow accums for most locations should be just a dusting of snow, but
where discrete snow bands can set up and persist for a period of
time, we could see localized accums of an inch or more.  Any
identification of the location of these discrete snow bands will
likely have to be now-casted, with the forecast amounts strongly
weighted towards the median, and not the exception.

Due to the anticipated localized nature of any accums beyond a
dusting, no winter headlines will be issued at this time.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Deep cyclonic flow and additional, yet sheared, disturbances will
only allow the threat for snow showers to slowly retreat eastward
and may allow flurries well into Tuesday.  One trend that all of the
models have settled on is for this Arctic airmass to build over our
region first before heading east, and will thus prolong its presence
here--likely into Thursday--as well as prolonging the moderately
strong wind with gusts at times at least into Wednesday.  This will
create the threat for wind chill advisory criteria (-15F) to be met
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for some areas in northern
MO and central IL.

Otherwise, NW flow aloft continues into next weekend.  Very low
confidence on any additional wx-making disturbances track/timing and
have kept the forecast dry because of it.  Something that could
change in a couple of days, so stay tuned.  Temps remain below
average, though, with perhaps some recovery back to near average by
Thursday-Friday.

Of better confidence is another intrusion of Arctic air for late
week, around Friday, and may continue into early next week.  And
that gets me to my next item:  models have, for some time, been
advertising a system that will affect us in mid-February, but true
to form for our region, can`t make up their mind on how much cold
air will be here and what form most of the pcpn will take.
Something to watch and stay tuned for as we move thru the upcoming
week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Upper-level trough continues to dig southward and this will help
bring both much colder air to the region but also some
predominantly scattered snow showers through much of the period.
These snow showers may briefly reduce visibilities and ceilings
down into IFR. Otherwise...expect gusty NW winds along with a
high-end MVFR ceilings along with the snow showers/flurries.


Specifics for KSTL:

Timing of MVFR ceilings and snow showers still appears to be in
the predawn hours of Monday morning. Once again...some of these
snow showers may be heavy enough at times through Monday morning
to reduce visibilities and ceilings down to IFR. Best chances of
these heavier snow showers/squalls for the terminal attm appear to
be in the 1000 and 1600 UTC range give or take a couple of hours.
Otherwise...NW winds will pick up with gusts near 30 knots along
with ceilings between 2500 and 3000 ft AGL.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 080512
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1112 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

No big changes from the previous forecast for this period. A
prefrontal trough has veered winds to the west and wnw this
afternoon with temperatures leveling off in the lower-middle 50s.
Gusty winds are not too out of hand, and should actually decrease
a bit this evening, at least for a few hours.

Snow flurries and snow showers will become an increasing concern
late tonight. Simulated vertical temperature, moisture, and wind
profiles show a fairly deep mixed layer (and some low level
instability) to help mix down stronger wind gusts Monday. Wind
blown snow flurries/showers may produce some localized travel
hazards. High res models keep the best chances for snow showers
over the northeast half of the cwfa with decreasing chances west
and south of KSGF.

Bottom line for impacts: It`s going to get much colder and windy
late tonight and Monday. A wind advisory is out for Monday for
the western portion of the cwfa with 40 to 45 mph gusts expected
(but it will be blustery and windy even outside the advisory as
well). Where snow showers are a bit more persistent, some minor
accumulation is expected up to a half inch over central MO.
Amounts will be variable and will need to watch trends for impacts
on roads/travel late tonight and Monday. Wind chills will drop
into the single digits Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

The main changes here were to drop temperatures a bit through
Midweek. A very dry Canadian air mass will settle into the eastern
U.S., then finally move off to the east late in the work week
with a warming trend. The high amplitude northwest upper level
flow pattern will modify a bit as the week goes on. Global models
bring a shortwave into the central Plains by late Day 7/Sunday
with some light rain and/or mix/snow possible. Will fine tune the
forecast timing and precip type with time. Still a long way to
go. Confidence in timing and precip impacts is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Cold front pushed through during the past hour at SGF and
northwest winds kicked up into the 20 to 30 kt range. Strong
pressure gradient over the area will remain in place through the
night and much of Monday driving in the colder air mass. A few
snow showers will be possible periodically during the day Monday.
Have gone mostly with VFR ceilings, but could see some MVFR
ceilings during the afternoon Monday. Winds will however be the
main aviation hazard through the period and will likely see gusts
over 30kts at times, especially during the day Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA



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000
FXUS63 KEAX 080452
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1052 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Little has changed in the forecast over the last day. Water vapor
and 1.5 PVU pressure plots show a strong but strung out PV anomaly
rapidly diving through eastern Nebraska. This wave will likely push
through the forecast area this evening in a span of few hours. We
should see an increase in winds as the wave is moving through but may
not see the full potential given the overnight passage. It will still
be very windy though during the overnight. Soon after sunrise, as
mixing becomes deeper/maximized, winds and especially wind gusts
should really start to increase and it`s likely that gusts to or
perhaps in excess of 45 mph will occur through the afternoon AND
early evening hours.

The other aspect of this system remains the potential for
convectively driven show showers/squalls. Forecast soundings
continue to show steep low-level lapse rates, even in the overnight
hours. This is likely a result of mixing associated with high PV air
streaming overhead. Regardless, models continue to show decent
surface based CAPE, for winter, with saturation occurring through the
lower half of a deep dendritic zone. Additionally, high resolution
models continue to show streaks in the model QPF, indicative of
convective type precipitation in a fast moving flow regime, not
banded snowfall since there is no frontogensis involved. Given this,
feel confident bringing in snow showers/squalls later tonight and
persisting them through around the noon hour in our west and a
little later in our eastern forecast area. QPF remains relatively
low, likely less than a tenth of an inch through the entire event.
But with a very localized nature to any heavier snow, there may be
amounts higher and thus a localized higher snow amount. Snow ratios
continue to look well above our normal values and likely around
20:1.

Headlines are very problematic with this event as there are multiple
elements involved and issues with coverage of snow. The highest
impact snows will be localized given showery nature to the
precipitation and it`s likely that not everyone will see snow. The
winds however will be more widespread and gusting perhaps in excess
of 45 mph. After coordinating with neighbors, feel that going with a
wind advisory with this forecast issuance, capturing the most likely
and widespread hazard is the route to go. Then as snow
showers/squalls move into the region a shorter term SPS(s) can be
used. Will continue to mention the localized nature/impact in the HWO
briefing packet.

As with yesterday`s forecast, the extended portion remains quiet.
Temperatures will be colder than normal for the first half of the
week with some moderation to closer to normal or slightly above
normal for the later half. There still isn`t a strong signal for any
storm system until next Sunday into Monday. The ridging over the
west will keep our area in northwesterly flow, limiting any
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Light snow has developed over the area as of Sunday evening and will
continue into the overnight hours. This should remain relatively
sparse and light until a stronger wave currently positioned over SW
Iowa enters the area around 09Z. The primary concern remains with the
potential for reduced visibilities within areas of heavy snowfall
coupled with winds gusting to 30-35kts. This should remain isolated
and periodic, however, though strong winds will remain a player
throughout the period. Wind speed shear will also be a factor
overnight in the lower levels, though increased surface winds should
mitigate this to a degree.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ102.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ005-006-
     013>015-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KLSX 080344
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
944 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE:
Issued at 936 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Isolated-scattered very light rain showers and sprinkles have
affected portions of the area this evening. Looking
upstream...radar imagery shows streaks of snow across the mid-
Missouri Valley. This activity is expected to move south and east
into our region overnight tonight. Some uptick in the intensity
still seems probable with some of the snow showers briefly
reducing visibilities very late tonight/early Monday morning.
Pinpointing where and when is still futile even at this range...so
maintained high chance PoPs beginning late tonight and lasting
into Monday.

Gosselin

&&

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Between a passage of the initial cold front thru the region by early
this afternoon and/or thickening cloud cover, temps have largely
already hit their daily maxes and will either stagnate or slowly
begin to fall, after having resulted in another mild day, with max
temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A strengthening upper LOW over the arrowhead region of MN will
help govern the tracks of various disturbances around it over the
next couple of days as it digs the flow to be more from the N-NW.

The first few disturbances are starting to come into focus now
and we can, with some degree of confidence, focus on the tracks and
timing.  The first is over northwest MO and is helping to kick off
some pcpn echo over the MO-IA border just downstream from it.  This
is liquid pcpn.  This disturbance will essentially drop straight
southward, with some east movement, and should help to perhaps kick
off light rain or sprinkles this evening for parts of central and
southeast MO, and perhaps into far southern IL.  The pcpn-type is
expected to remain liquid with temps still in the 40s for most areas
during this time.

The second disturbance is located near Sioux Falls, SD (KFSD), and
will have more of a true SE movement to it, likely tracking thru the
heart of our CWA from late this evening thru the overnight.  This
will have better coverage pcpn with it, and due to its forward
speed, now looks like it will outrun the surface cold air a bit and
probably begin as rain showers for an hour or so, then changing to
snow showers.  Overall preferred warmer MOS temps but diffs were
very small, and temps by daybreak at most locations will be at or
below freezing.

The third disturbance is more directly associated with the storm
center over the MN arrowhead, and as that digs, will track more S
initially then SE late, and will likely affect areas near the MS
river and east during Monday morning and early afternoon.
Pcpn-types here will be all snow, with temps probably not rising from
previous nighttime mins at all, and probably losing a few degrees by
mid-afternoon.

Low level CAA will strengthen significantly after midnight tonight
and will remain decently strong thru the day on Monday, and will
also be accompanied by an increase in NW wind and gusts to 35mph
most locations with some 40mph possible in northeast and central MO.

The wind combined with the scattered snow showers that will be
ongoing will result in rapidly fluctuating visibilities, but lower
liquid to snow ratios than one might expect for cold air like this,
due to the well sifted nature of any snow that does accumulate, and
leaned strongly towards 12-15:1 versus te model suggested 20:1.
Snow accums for most locations should be just a dusting of snow, but
where discrete snow bands can set up and persist for a period of
time, we could see localized accums of an inch or more.  Any
identification of the location of these discrete snow bands will
likely have to be now-casted, with the forecast amounts strongly
weighted towards the median, and not the exception.

Due to the anticipated localized nature of any accums beyond a
dusting, no winter headlines will be issued at this time.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Deep cyclonic flow and additional, yet sheared, disturbances will
only allow the threat for snow showers to slowly retreat eastward
and may allow flurries well into Tuesday.  One trend that all of the
models have settled on is for this Arctic airmass to build over our
region first before heading east, and will thus prolong its presence
here--likely into Thursday--as well as prolonging the moderately
strong wind with gusts at times at least into Wednesday.  This will
create the threat for wind chill advisory criteria (-15F) to be met
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for some areas in northern
MO and central IL.

Otherwise, NW flow aloft continues into next weekend.  Very low
confidence on any additional wx-making disturbances track/timing and
have kept the forecast dry because of it.  Something that could
change in a couple of days, so stay tuned.  Temps remain below
average, though, with perhaps some recovery back to near average by
Thursday-Friday.

Of better confidence is another intrusion of Arctic air for late
week, around Friday, and may continue into early next week.  And
that gets me to my next item:  models have, for some time, been
advertising a system that will affect us in mid-February, but true
to form for our region, can`t make up their mind on how much cold
air will be here and what form most of the pcpn will take.
Something to watch and stay tuned for as we move thru the upcoming
week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Very light rain showers or sprinkles possible this evening with
first upper-level disturbance. Trough will deepen as it heads
southward overnight tonight and into tomorrow. This will bring
scattered snow showers as temperatures cool late tonight and
throughout the day tomorrow. Some of these snow showers will
likely be briefly intense bringing IFR visibilities/ceilings.
However...still too early to capture a time period where this is
most likely at any one terminal.


Specifics for KSTL:

Slight chance of a sprinkle or very light rain shower this
evening. Scattered snow showers late tonight and much of tomorrow.
IFR ceilings/visbys likely in heavier showers...but still too
earlyt to pin down a block of time for any tempo.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 072348
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
548 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Between a passage of the initial cold front thru the region by early
this afternoon and/or thickening cloud cover, temps have largely
already hit their daily maxes and will either stagnate or slowly
begin to fall, after having resulted in another mild day, with max
temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A strengthening upper LOW over the arrowhead region of MN will
help govern the tracks of various disturbances around it over the
next couple of days as it digs the flow to be more from the N-NW.

The first few disturbances are starting to come into focus now
and we can, with some degree of confidence, focus on the tracks and
timing.  The first is over northwest MO and is helping to kick off
some pcpn echo over the MO-IA border just downstream from it.  This
is liquid pcpn.  This disturbance will essentially drop straight
southward, with some east movement, and should help to perhaps kick
off light rain or sprinkles this evening for parts of central and
southeast MO, and perhaps into far southern IL.  The pcpn-type is
expected to remain liquid with temps still in the 40s for most areas
during this time.

The second disturbance is located near Sioux Falls, SD (KFSD), and
will have more of a true SE movement to it, likely tracking thru the
heart of our CWA from late this evening thru the overnight.  This
will have better coverage pcpn with it, and due to its forward
speed, now looks like it will outrun the surface cold air a bit and
probably begin as rain showers for an hour or so, then changing to
snow showers.  Overall preferred warmer MOS temps but diffs were
very small, and temps by daybreak at most locations will be at or
below freezing.

The third disturbance is more directly associated with the storm
center over the MN arrowhead, and as that digs, will track more S
initially then SE late, and will likely affect areas near the MS
river and east during Monday morning and early afternoon.
Pcpn-types here will be all snow, with temps probably not rising from
previous nighttime mins at all, and probably losing a few degrees by
mid-afternoon.

Low level CAA will strengthen significantly after midnight tonight
and will remain decently strong thru the day on Monday, and will
also be accompanied by an increase in NW wind and gusts to 35mph
most locations with some 40mph possible in northeast and central MO.

The wind combined with the scattered snow showers that will be
ongoing will result in rapidly fluctuating visibilities, but lower
liquid to snow ratios than one might expect for cold air like this,
due to the well sifted nature of any snow that does accumulate, and
leaned strongly towards 12-15:1 versus te model suggested 20:1.
Snow accums for most locations should be just a dusting of snow, but
where discrete snow bands can set up and persist for a period of
time, we could see localized accums of an inch or more.  Any
identification of the location of these discrete snow bands will
likely have to be now-casted, with the forecast amounts strongly
weighted towards the median, and not the exception.

Due to the anticipated localized nature of any accums beyond a
dusting, no winter headlines will be issued at this time.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Deep cyclonic flow and additional, yet sheared, disturbances will
only allow the threat for snow showers to slowly retreat eastward
and may allow flurries well into Tuesday.  One trend that all of the
models have settled on is for this Arctic airmass to build over our
region first before heading east, and will thus prolong its presence
here--likely into Thursday--as well as prolonging the moderately
strong wind with gusts at times at least into Wednesday.  This will
create the threat for wind chill advisory criteria (-15F) to be met
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for some areas in northern
MO and central IL.

Otherwise, NW flow aloft continues into next weekend.  Very low
confidence on any additional wx-making disturbances track/timing and
have kept the forecast dry because of it.  Something that could
change in a couple of days, so stay tuned.  Temps remain below
average, though, with perhaps some recovery back to near average by
Thursday-Friday.

Of better confidence is another intrusion of Arctic air for late
week, around Friday, and may continue into early next week.  And
that gets me to my next item:  models have, for some time, been
advertising a system that will affect us in mid-February, but true
to form for our region, can`t make up their mind on how much cold
air will be here and what form most of the pcpn will take.
Something to watch and stay tuned for as we move thru the upcoming
week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Very light rain showers or sprinkles possible this evening with
first upper-level disturbance. Trough will deepen as it heads
southward overnight tonight and into tomorrow. This will bring
scattered snow showers as temperatures cool late tonight and
throughout the day tomorrow. Some of these snow showers will
likely be briefly intense bringing IFR visibilities/ceilings.
However...still too early to capture a time period where this is
most likely at any one terminal.


Specifics for KSTL:

Slight chance of a sprinkle or very light rain shower this
evening. Scattered snow showers late tonight and much of tomorrow.
IFR ceilings/visbys likely in heavier showers...but still too
earlyt to pin down a block of time for any tempo.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 072348
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
548 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Between a passage of the initial cold front thru the region by early
this afternoon and/or thickening cloud cover, temps have largely
already hit their daily maxes and will either stagnate or slowly
begin to fall, after having resulted in another mild day, with max
temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A strengthening upper LOW over the arrowhead region of MN will
help govern the tracks of various disturbances around it over the
next couple of days as it digs the flow to be more from the N-NW.

The first few disturbances are starting to come into focus now
and we can, with some degree of confidence, focus on the tracks and
timing.  The first is over northwest MO and is helping to kick off
some pcpn echo over the MO-IA border just downstream from it.  This
is liquid pcpn.  This disturbance will essentially drop straight
southward, with some east movement, and should help to perhaps kick
off light rain or sprinkles this evening for parts of central and
southeast MO, and perhaps into far southern IL.  The pcpn-type is
expected to remain liquid with temps still in the 40s for most areas
during this time.

The second disturbance is located near Sioux Falls, SD (KFSD), and
will have more of a true SE movement to it, likely tracking thru the
heart of our CWA from late this evening thru the overnight.  This
will have better coverage pcpn with it, and due to its forward
speed, now looks like it will outrun the surface cold air a bit and
probably begin as rain showers for an hour or so, then changing to
snow showers.  Overall preferred warmer MOS temps but diffs were
very small, and temps by daybreak at most locations will be at or
below freezing.

The third disturbance is more directly associated with the storm
center over the MN arrowhead, and as that digs, will track more S
initially then SE late, and will likely affect areas near the MS
river and east during Monday morning and early afternoon.
Pcpn-types here will be all snow, with temps probably not rising from
previous nighttime mins at all, and probably losing a few degrees by
mid-afternoon.

Low level CAA will strengthen significantly after midnight tonight
and will remain decently strong thru the day on Monday, and will
also be accompanied by an increase in NW wind and gusts to 35mph
most locations with some 40mph possible in northeast and central MO.

The wind combined with the scattered snow showers that will be
ongoing will result in rapidly fluctuating visibilities, but lower
liquid to snow ratios than one might expect for cold air like this,
due to the well sifted nature of any snow that does accumulate, and
leaned strongly towards 12-15:1 versus te model suggested 20:1.
Snow accums for most locations should be just a dusting of snow, but
where discrete snow bands can set up and persist for a period of
time, we could see localized accums of an inch or more.  Any
identification of the location of these discrete snow bands will
likely have to be now-casted, with the forecast amounts strongly
weighted towards the median, and not the exception.

Due to the anticipated localized nature of any accums beyond a
dusting, no winter headlines will be issued at this time.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Deep cyclonic flow and additional, yet sheared, disturbances will
only allow the threat for snow showers to slowly retreat eastward
and may allow flurries well into Tuesday.  One trend that all of the
models have settled on is for this Arctic airmass to build over our
region first before heading east, and will thus prolong its presence
here--likely into Thursday--as well as prolonging the moderately
strong wind with gusts at times at least into Wednesday.  This will
create the threat for wind chill advisory criteria (-15F) to be met
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for some areas in northern
MO and central IL.

Otherwise, NW flow aloft continues into next weekend.  Very low
confidence on any additional wx-making disturbances track/timing and
have kept the forecast dry because of it.  Something that could
change in a couple of days, so stay tuned.  Temps remain below
average, though, with perhaps some recovery back to near average by
Thursday-Friday.

Of better confidence is another intrusion of Arctic air for late
week, around Friday, and may continue into early next week.  And
that gets me to my next item:  models have, for some time, been
advertising a system that will affect us in mid-February, but true
to form for our region, can`t make up their mind on how much cold
air will be here and what form most of the pcpn will take.
Something to watch and stay tuned for as we move thru the upcoming
week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Very light rain showers or sprinkles possible this evening with
first upper-level disturbance. Trough will deepen as it heads
southward overnight tonight and into tomorrow. This will bring
scattered snow showers as temperatures cool late tonight and
throughout the day tomorrow. Some of these snow showers will
likely be briefly intense bringing IFR visibilities/ceilings.
However...still too early to capture a time period where this is
most likely at any one terminal.


Specifics for KSTL:

Slight chance of a sprinkle or very light rain shower this
evening. Scattered snow showers late tonight and much of tomorrow.
IFR ceilings/visbys likely in heavier showers...but still too
earlyt to pin down a block of time for any tempo.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KEAX 072330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Little has changed in the forecast over the last day. Water vapor
and 1.5 PVU pressure plots show a strong but strung out PV anomaly
rapidly diving through eastern Nebraska. This wave will likely push
through the forecast area this evening in a span of few hours. We
should see an increase in winds as the wave is moving through but may
not see the full potential given the overnight passage. It will still
be very windy though during the overnight. Soon after sunrise, as
mixing becomes deeper/maximized, winds and especially wind gusts
should really start to increase and it`s likely that gusts to or
perhaps in excess of 45 mph will occur through the afternoon AND
early evening hours.

The other aspect of this system remains the potential for
convectively driven show showers/squalls. Forecast soundings
continue to show steep low-level lapse rates, even in the overnight
hours. This is likely a result of mixing associated with high PV air
streaming overhead. Regardless, models continue to show decent
surface based CAPE, for winter, with saturation occurring through the
lower half of a deep dendritic zone. Additionally, high resolution
models continue to show streaks in the model QPF, indicative of
convective type precipitation in a fast moving flow regime, not
banded snowfall since there is no frontogensis involved. Given this,
feel confident bringing in snow showers/squalls later tonight and
persisting them through around the noon hour in our west and a
little later in our eastern forecast area. QPF remains relatively
low, likely less than a tenth of an inch through the entire event.
But with a very localized nature to any heavier snow, there may be
amounts higher and thus a localized higher snow amount. Snow ratios
continue to look well above our normal values and likely around
20:1.

Headlines are very problematic with this event as there are multiple
elements involved and issues with coverage of snow. The highest
impact snows will be localized given showery nature to the
precipitation and it`s likely that not everyone will see snow. The
winds however will be more widespread and gusting perhaps in excess
of 45 mph. After coordinating with neighbors, feel that going with a
wind advisory with this forecast issuance, capturing the most likely
and widespread hazard is the route to go. Then as snow
showers/squalls move into the region a shorter term SPS(s) can be
used. Will continue to mention the localized nature/impact in the HWO
briefing packet.

As with yesterday`s forecast, the extended portion remains quiet.
Temperatures will be colder than normal for the first half of the
week with some moderation to closer to normal or slightly above
normal for the later half. There still isn`t a strong signal for any
storm system until next Sunday into Monday. The ridging over the
west will keep our area in northwesterly flow, limiting any
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A few echoes in the area have been noted on radar as of Sunday
evening. Any precipitation that reaches the surface will be in the
form of snow flurries, though with very dry dew points, these should
remain minimal until overnight. At that time, snow showers/squalls
are possible through the mid-morning on Monday. The main impact will
be the potential for periodic reduced visibilities as wind gusts
approach 30kts, occurring simultaneously with potential heavy snow.
Increased surface winds will then continue as precipitation tapers
off during the mid-morning hours. Winds will remain out of the NW,
gusting to 30-35kts through the end of the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ102.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ005-006-
     013>015-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 072330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Little has changed in the forecast over the last day. Water vapor
and 1.5 PVU pressure plots show a strong but strung out PV anomaly
rapidly diving through eastern Nebraska. This wave will likely push
through the forecast area this evening in a span of few hours. We
should see an increase in winds as the wave is moving through but may
not see the full potential given the overnight passage. It will still
be very windy though during the overnight. Soon after sunrise, as
mixing becomes deeper/maximized, winds and especially wind gusts
should really start to increase and it`s likely that gusts to or
perhaps in excess of 45 mph will occur through the afternoon AND
early evening hours.

The other aspect of this system remains the potential for
convectively driven show showers/squalls. Forecast soundings
continue to show steep low-level lapse rates, even in the overnight
hours. This is likely a result of mixing associated with high PV air
streaming overhead. Regardless, models continue to show decent
surface based CAPE, for winter, with saturation occurring through the
lower half of a deep dendritic zone. Additionally, high resolution
models continue to show streaks in the model QPF, indicative of
convective type precipitation in a fast moving flow regime, not
banded snowfall since there is no frontogensis involved. Given this,
feel confident bringing in snow showers/squalls later tonight and
persisting them through around the noon hour in our west and a
little later in our eastern forecast area. QPF remains relatively
low, likely less than a tenth of an inch through the entire event.
But with a very localized nature to any heavier snow, there may be
amounts higher and thus a localized higher snow amount. Snow ratios
continue to look well above our normal values and likely around
20:1.

Headlines are very problematic with this event as there are multiple
elements involved and issues with coverage of snow. The highest
impact snows will be localized given showery nature to the
precipitation and it`s likely that not everyone will see snow. The
winds however will be more widespread and gusting perhaps in excess
of 45 mph. After coordinating with neighbors, feel that going with a
wind advisory with this forecast issuance, capturing the most likely
and widespread hazard is the route to go. Then as snow
showers/squalls move into the region a shorter term SPS(s) can be
used. Will continue to mention the localized nature/impact in the HWO
briefing packet.

As with yesterday`s forecast, the extended portion remains quiet.
Temperatures will be colder than normal for the first half of the
week with some moderation to closer to normal or slightly above
normal for the later half. There still isn`t a strong signal for any
storm system until next Sunday into Monday. The ridging over the
west will keep our area in northwesterly flow, limiting any
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A few echoes in the area have been noted on radar as of Sunday
evening. Any precipitation that reaches the surface will be in the
form of snow flurries, though with very dry dew points, these should
remain minimal until overnight. At that time, snow showers/squalls
are possible through the mid-morning on Monday. The main impact will
be the potential for periodic reduced visibilities as wind gusts
approach 30kts, occurring simultaneously with potential heavy snow.
Increased surface winds will then continue as precipitation tapers
off during the mid-morning hours. Winds will remain out of the NW,
gusting to 30-35kts through the end of the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ102.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ005-006-
     013>015-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 072330
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Little has changed in the forecast over the last day. Water vapor
and 1.5 PVU pressure plots show a strong but strung out PV anomaly
rapidly diving through eastern Nebraska. This wave will likely push
through the forecast area this evening in a span of few hours. We
should see an increase in winds as the wave is moving through but may
not see the full potential given the overnight passage. It will still
be very windy though during the overnight. Soon after sunrise, as
mixing becomes deeper/maximized, winds and especially wind gusts
should really start to increase and it`s likely that gusts to or
perhaps in excess of 45 mph will occur through the afternoon AND
early evening hours.

The other aspect of this system remains the potential for
convectively driven show showers/squalls. Forecast soundings
continue to show steep low-level lapse rates, even in the overnight
hours. This is likely a result of mixing associated with high PV air
streaming overhead. Regardless, models continue to show decent
surface based CAPE, for winter, with saturation occurring through the
lower half of a deep dendritic zone. Additionally, high resolution
models continue to show streaks in the model QPF, indicative of
convective type precipitation in a fast moving flow regime, not
banded snowfall since there is no frontogensis involved. Given this,
feel confident bringing in snow showers/squalls later tonight and
persisting them through around the noon hour in our west and a
little later in our eastern forecast area. QPF remains relatively
low, likely less than a tenth of an inch through the entire event.
But with a very localized nature to any heavier snow, there may be
amounts higher and thus a localized higher snow amount. Snow ratios
continue to look well above our normal values and likely around
20:1.

Headlines are very problematic with this event as there are multiple
elements involved and issues with coverage of snow. The highest
impact snows will be localized given showery nature to the
precipitation and it`s likely that not everyone will see snow. The
winds however will be more widespread and gusting perhaps in excess
of 45 mph. After coordinating with neighbors, feel that going with a
wind advisory with this forecast issuance, capturing the most likely
and widespread hazard is the route to go. Then as snow
showers/squalls move into the region a shorter term SPS(s) can be
used. Will continue to mention the localized nature/impact in the HWO
briefing packet.

As with yesterday`s forecast, the extended portion remains quiet.
Temperatures will be colder than normal for the first half of the
week with some moderation to closer to normal or slightly above
normal for the later half. There still isn`t a strong signal for any
storm system until next Sunday into Monday. The ridging over the
west will keep our area in northwesterly flow, limiting any
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A few echoes in the area have been noted on radar as of Sunday
evening. Any precipitation that reaches the surface will be in the
form of snow flurries, though with very dry dew points, these should
remain minimal until overnight. At that time, snow showers/squalls
are possible through the mid-morning on Monday. The main impact will
be the potential for periodic reduced visibilities as wind gusts
approach 30kts, occurring simultaneously with potential heavy snow.
Increased surface winds will then continue as precipitation tapers
off during the mid-morning hours. Winds will remain out of the NW,
gusting to 30-35kts through the end of the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ102.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ005-006-
     013>015-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KSGF 072301
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
501 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

No big changes from the previous forecast for this period. A
prefrontal trough has veered winds to the west and wnw this
afternoon with temperatures leveling off in the lower-middle 50s.
Gusty winds are not too out of hand, and should actually decrease
a bit this evening, at least for a few hours.

Snow flurries and snow showers will become an increasing concern
late tonight. Simulated vertical temperature, moisture, and wind
profiles show a fairly deep mixed layer (and some low level
instability) to help mix down stronger wind gusts Monday. Wind
blown snow flurries/showers may produce some localized travel
hazards. High res models keep the best chances for snow showers
over the northeast half of the cwfa with decreasing chances west
and south of KSGF.

Bottom line for impacts: It`s going to get much colder and windy
late tonight and Monday. A wind advisory is out for Monday for
the western portion of the cwfa with 40 to 45 mph gusts expected
(but it will be blustery and windy even outside the advisory as
well). Where snow showers are a bit more persistent, some minor
accumulation is expected up to a half inch over central MO.
Amounts will be variable and will need to watch trends for impacts
on roads/travel late tonight and Monday. Wind chills will drop
into the single digits Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

The main changes here were to drop temperatures a bit through
Midweek. A very dry Canadian air mass will settle into the eastern
U.S., then finally move off to the east late in the work week
with a warming trend. The high amplitude northwest upper level
flow pattern will modify a bit as the week goes on. Global models
bring a shortwave into the central Plains by late Day 7/Sunday
with some light rain and/or mix/snow possible. Will fine tune the
forecast timing and precip type with time. Still a long way to
go. Confidence in timing and precip impacts is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0501 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Wind will be a big aviation hazard later tonight through Monday as
a strong shortwave pushes through, with a very tight pressure
gradient as much colder air pushes in. Will also have periodic
snow showers possible with ceilings generally in VFR category, but
could see some MVFR by late in the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 072301
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
501 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

No big changes from the previous forecast for this period. A
prefrontal trough has veered winds to the west and wnw this
afternoon with temperatures leveling off in the lower-middle 50s.
Gusty winds are not too out of hand, and should actually decrease
a bit this evening, at least for a few hours.

Snow flurries and snow showers will become an increasing concern
late tonight. Simulated vertical temperature, moisture, and wind
profiles show a fairly deep mixed layer (and some low level
instability) to help mix down stronger wind gusts Monday. Wind
blown snow flurries/showers may produce some localized travel
hazards. High res models keep the best chances for snow showers
over the northeast half of the cwfa with decreasing chances west
and south of KSGF.

Bottom line for impacts: It`s going to get much colder and windy
late tonight and Monday. A wind advisory is out for Monday for
the western portion of the cwfa with 40 to 45 mph gusts expected
(but it will be blustery and windy even outside the advisory as
well). Where snow showers are a bit more persistent, some minor
accumulation is expected up to a half inch over central MO.
Amounts will be variable and will need to watch trends for impacts
on roads/travel late tonight and Monday. Wind chills will drop
into the single digits Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

The main changes here were to drop temperatures a bit through
Midweek. A very dry Canadian air mass will settle into the eastern
U.S., then finally move off to the east late in the work week
with a warming trend. The high amplitude northwest upper level
flow pattern will modify a bit as the week goes on. Global models
bring a shortwave into the central Plains by late Day 7/Sunday
with some light rain and/or mix/snow possible. Will fine tune the
forecast timing and precip type with time. Still a long way to
go. Confidence in timing and precip impacts is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0501 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Wind will be a big aviation hazard later tonight through Monday as
a strong shortwave pushes through, with a very tight pressure
gradient as much colder air pushes in. Will also have periodic
snow showers possible with ceilings generally in VFR category, but
could see some MVFR by late in the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 072301
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
501 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

No big changes from the previous forecast for this period. A
prefrontal trough has veered winds to the west and wnw this
afternoon with temperatures leveling off in the lower-middle 50s.
Gusty winds are not too out of hand, and should actually decrease
a bit this evening, at least for a few hours.

Snow flurries and snow showers will become an increasing concern
late tonight. Simulated vertical temperature, moisture, and wind
profiles show a fairly deep mixed layer (and some low level
instability) to help mix down stronger wind gusts Monday. Wind
blown snow flurries/showers may produce some localized travel
hazards. High res models keep the best chances for snow showers
over the northeast half of the cwfa with decreasing chances west
and south of KSGF.

Bottom line for impacts: It`s going to get much colder and windy
late tonight and Monday. A wind advisory is out for Monday for
the western portion of the cwfa with 40 to 45 mph gusts expected
(but it will be blustery and windy even outside the advisory as
well). Where snow showers are a bit more persistent, some minor
accumulation is expected up to a half inch over central MO.
Amounts will be variable and will need to watch trends for impacts
on roads/travel late tonight and Monday. Wind chills will drop
into the single digits Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

The main changes here were to drop temperatures a bit through
Midweek. A very dry Canadian air mass will settle into the eastern
U.S., then finally move off to the east late in the work week
with a warming trend. The high amplitude northwest upper level
flow pattern will modify a bit as the week goes on. Global models
bring a shortwave into the central Plains by late Day 7/Sunday
with some light rain and/or mix/snow possible. Will fine tune the
forecast timing and precip type with time. Still a long way to
go. Confidence in timing and precip impacts is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0501 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Wind will be a big aviation hazard later tonight through Monday as
a strong shortwave pushes through, with a very tight pressure
gradient as much colder air pushes in. Will also have periodic
snow showers possible with ceilings generally in VFR category, but
could see some MVFR by late in the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 072301
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
501 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

No big changes from the previous forecast for this period. A
prefrontal trough has veered winds to the west and wnw this
afternoon with temperatures leveling off in the lower-middle 50s.
Gusty winds are not too out of hand, and should actually decrease
a bit this evening, at least for a few hours.

Snow flurries and snow showers will become an increasing concern
late tonight. Simulated vertical temperature, moisture, and wind
profiles show a fairly deep mixed layer (and some low level
instability) to help mix down stronger wind gusts Monday. Wind
blown snow flurries/showers may produce some localized travel
hazards. High res models keep the best chances for snow showers
over the northeast half of the cwfa with decreasing chances west
and south of KSGF.

Bottom line for impacts: It`s going to get much colder and windy
late tonight and Monday. A wind advisory is out for Monday for
the western portion of the cwfa with 40 to 45 mph gusts expected
(but it will be blustery and windy even outside the advisory as
well). Where snow showers are a bit more persistent, some minor
accumulation is expected up to a half inch over central MO.
Amounts will be variable and will need to watch trends for impacts
on roads/travel late tonight and Monday. Wind chills will drop
into the single digits Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

The main changes here were to drop temperatures a bit through
Midweek. A very dry Canadian air mass will settle into the eastern
U.S., then finally move off to the east late in the work week
with a warming trend. The high amplitude northwest upper level
flow pattern will modify a bit as the week goes on. Global models
bring a shortwave into the central Plains by late Day 7/Sunday
with some light rain and/or mix/snow possible. Will fine tune the
forecast timing and precip type with time. Still a long way to
go. Confidence in timing and precip impacts is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0501 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Wind will be a big aviation hazard later tonight through Monday as
a strong shortwave pushes through, with a very tight pressure
gradient as much colder air pushes in. Will also have periodic
snow showers possible with ceilings generally in VFR category, but
could see some MVFR by late in the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 072301
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
501 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

No big changes from the previous forecast for this period. A
prefrontal trough has veered winds to the west and wnw this
afternoon with temperatures leveling off in the lower-middle 50s.
Gusty winds are not too out of hand, and should actually decrease
a bit this evening, at least for a few hours.

Snow flurries and snow showers will become an increasing concern
late tonight. Simulated vertical temperature, moisture, and wind
profiles show a fairly deep mixed layer (and some low level
instability) to help mix down stronger wind gusts Monday. Wind
blown snow flurries/showers may produce some localized travel
hazards. High res models keep the best chances for snow showers
over the northeast half of the cwfa with decreasing chances west
and south of KSGF.

Bottom line for impacts: It`s going to get much colder and windy
late tonight and Monday. A wind advisory is out for Monday for
the western portion of the cwfa with 40 to 45 mph gusts expected
(but it will be blustery and windy even outside the advisory as
well). Where snow showers are a bit more persistent, some minor
accumulation is expected up to a half inch over central MO.
Amounts will be variable and will need to watch trends for impacts
on roads/travel late tonight and Monday. Wind chills will drop
into the single digits Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

The main changes here were to drop temperatures a bit through
Midweek. A very dry Canadian air mass will settle into the eastern
U.S., then finally move off to the east late in the work week
with a warming trend. The high amplitude northwest upper level
flow pattern will modify a bit as the week goes on. Global models
bring a shortwave into the central Plains by late Day 7/Sunday
with some light rain and/or mix/snow possible. Will fine tune the
forecast timing and precip type with time. Still a long way to
go. Confidence in timing and precip impacts is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 0501 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Wind will be a big aviation hazard later tonight through Monday as
a strong shortwave pushes through, with a very tight pressure
gradient as much colder air pushes in. Will also have periodic
snow showers possible with ceilings generally in VFR category, but
could see some MVFR by late in the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 072145
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
345 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

No big changes from the previous forecast for this period. A
prefrontal trough has veered winds to the west and wnw this
afternoon with temperatures leveling off in the lower-middle 50s.
Gusty winds are not too out of hand, and should actually decrease
a bit this evening, at least for a few hours.

Snow flurries and snow showers will become an increasing concern
late tonight. Simulated vertical temperature, moisture, and wind
profiles show a fairly deep mixed layer (and some low level
instability) to help mix down stronger wind gusts Monday. Wind
blown snow flurries/showers may produce some localized travel
hazards. High res models keep the best chances for snow showers
over the northeast half of the cwfa with decreasing chances west
and south of KSGF.

Bottom line for impacts: It`s going to get much colder and windy
late tonight and Monday. A wind advisory is out for Monday for
the western portion of the cwfa with 40 to 45 mph gusts expected
(but it will be blustery and windy even outside the advisory as
well). Where snow showers are a bit more persistent, some minor
accumulation is expected up to a half inch over central MO.
Amounts will be variable and will need to watch trends for impacts
on roads/travel late tonight and Monday. Wind chills will drop
into the single digits Monday night.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

The main changes here were to drop temperatures a bit through
Midweek. A very dry Canadian air mass will settle into the eastern
U.S., then finally move off to the east late in the work week
with a warming trend. The high amplitude northwest upper level
flow pattern will modify a bit as the week goes on. Global models
bring a shortwave into the central Plains by late Day 7/Sunday
with some light rain and/or mix/snow possible. Will fine tune the
forecast timing and precip type with time. Still a long way to
go. Confidence in timing and precip impacts is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Winds will veer and become increasing
strong, particularly late in the taf period, behind a cold
frontal passage. A lack of low level moisture will keep
conditions vfr, but some flurries/snow showers will be possible
after 12z, mainly at KSGF and points north and east.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KLSX 072120
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Between a passage of the initial cold front thru the region by early
this afternoon and/or thickening cloud cover, temps have largely
already hit their daily maxes and will either stagnate or slowly
begin to fall, after having resulted in another mild day, with max
temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A strengthening upper LOW over the arrowhead region of MN will
help govern the tracks of various disturbances around it over the
next couple of days as it digs the flow to be more from the N-NW.

The first few disturbances are starting to come into focus now
and we can, with some degree of confidence, focus on the tracks and
timing.  The first is over northwest MO and is helping to kick off
some pcpn echo over the MO-IA border just downstream from it.  This
is liquid pcpn.  This disturbance will essentially drop straight
southward, with some east movement, and should help to perhaps kick
off light rain or sprinkles this evening for parts of central and
southeast MO, and perhaps into far southern IL.  The pcpn-type is
expected to remain liquid with temps still in the 40s for most areas
during this time.

The second disturbance is located near Sioux Falls, SD (KFSD), and
will have more of a true SE movement to it, likely tracking thru the
heart of our CWA from late this evening thru the overnight.  This
will have better coverage pcpn with it, and due to its forward
speed, now looks like it will outrun the surface cold air a bit and
probably begin as rain showers for an hour or so, then changing to
snow showers.  Overall preferred warmer MOS temps but diffs were
very small, and temps by daybreak at most locations will be at or
below freezing.

The third disturbance is more directly associated with the storm
center over the MN arrowhead, and as that digs, will track more S
initially then SE late, and will likely affect areas near the MS
river and east during Monday morning and early afternoon.
Pcpn-types here will be all snow, with temps probably not rising from
previous nighttime mins at all, and probably losing a few degrees by
mid-afternoon.

Low level CAA will strengthen significantly after midnight tonight
and will remain decently strong thru the day on Monday, and will
also be accompanied by an increase in NW wind and gusts to 35mph
most locations with some 40mph possible in northeast and central MO.

The wind combined with the scattered snow showers that will be
ongoing will result in rapidly fluctuating visibilities, but lower
liquid to snow ratios than one might expect for cold air like this,
due to the well sifted nature of any snow that does accumulate, and
leaned strongly towards 12-15:1 versus te model suggested 20:1.
Snow accums for most locations should be just a dusting of snow, but
where discrete snow bands can set up and persist for a period of
time, we could see localized accums of an inch or more.  Any
identification of the location of these discrete snow bands will
likely have to be now-casted, with the forecast amounts strongly
weighted towards the median, and not the exception.

Due to the anticipated localized nature of any accums beyond a
dusting, no winter headlines will be issued at this time.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Deep cyclonic flow and additional, yet sheared, disturbances will
only allow the threat for snow showers to slowly retreat eastward
and may allow flurries well into Tuesday.  One trend that all of the
models have settled on is for this Arctic airmass to build over our
region first before heading east, and will thus prolong its presence
here--likely into Thursday--as well as prolonging the moderately
strong wind with gusts at times at least into Wednesday.  This will
create the threat for wind chill advisory criteria (-15F) to be met
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for some areas in northern
MO and central IL.

Otherwise, NW flow aloft continues into next weekend.  Very low
confidence on any additional wx-making disturbances track/timing and
have kept the forecast dry because of it.  Something that could
change in a couple of days, so stay tuned.  Temps remain below
average, though, with perhaps some recovery back to near average by
Thursday-Friday.

Of better confidence is another intrusion of Arctic air for late
week, around Friday, and may continue into early next week.  And
that gets me to my next item:  models have, for some time, been
advertising a system that will affect us in mid-February, but true
to form for our region, can`t make up their mind on how much cold
air will be here and what form most of the pcpn will take.
Something to watch and stay tuned for as we move thru the upcoming
week.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: VFR for the first 0-6 hours and possibly
longer. MVFR stratus is expected to reach the terminals after 03z.
Snow showers will develop overnight and persist through the end of
the TAF period. Transient IFR vsbys are possible at times when the
heavier snow showers move directly over the terminals, but it is
not possible to pin down a more exact window this far in advance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-6 hours and
probably for the first 0-12 hours. A cold front was moving
through the St. Louis metro area at TAF issuance. Winds were
gradually turning westerly behind the front and wind gusts had
increased to around 25 kts. MVFR stratus is not expected to reach
the St. Louis metro terminals until after 06z. Snow showers will
likely develop early tomorrow morning and persist through the
afternoon. Transient IFR vsbys are possible at times when the
heavier snow showers move directly over the terminals, but it is
not possible to pin down a more exact window this far in advance.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 072047
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Little has changed in the forecast over the last day. Water vapor
and 1.5 PVU pressure plots show a strong but strung out PV anomaly
rapidly diving through eastern Nebraska. This wave will likely push
through the forecast area this evening in a span of few hours. We
should see an increase in winds as the wave is moving through but may
not see the full potential given the overnight passage. It will still
be very windy though during the overnight. Soon after sunrise, as
mixing becomes deeper/maximized, winds and especially wind gusts
should really start to increase and it`s likely that gusts to or
perhaps in excess of 45 mph will occur through the afternoon AND
early evening hours.

The other aspect of this system remains the potential for
convectively driven show showers/squalls. Forecast soundings
continue to show steep low-level lapse rates, even in the overnight
hours. This is likely a result of mixing associated with high PV air
streaming overhead. Regardless, models continue to show decent
surface based CAPE, for winter, with saturation occurring through the
lower half of a deep dendritic zone. Additionally, high resolution
models continue to show streaks in the model QPF, indicative of
convective type precipitation in a fast moving flow regime, not
banded snowfall since there is no frontogensis involved. Given this,
feel confident bringing in snow showers/squalls later tonight and
persisting them through around the noon hour in our west and a
little later in our eastern forecast area. QPF remains relatively
low, likely less than a tenth of an inch through the entire event.
But with a very localized nature to any heavier snow, there may be
amounts higher and thus a localized higher snow amount. Snow ratios
continue to look well above our normal values and likely around
20:1.

Headlines are very problematic with this event as there are multiple
elements involved and issues with coverage of snow. The highest
impact snows will be localized given showery nature to the
precipitation and it`s likely that not everyone will see snow. The
winds however will be more widespread and gusting perhaps in excess
of 45 mph. After coordinating with neighbors, feel that going with a
wind advisory with this forecast issuance, capturing the most likely
and widespread hazard is the route to go. Then as snow
showers/squalls move into the region a shorter term SPS(s) can be
used. Will continue to mention the localized nature/impact in the HWO
briefing packet.

As with yesterday`s forecast, the extended portion remains quiet.
Temperatures will be colder than normal for the first half of the
week with some moderation to closer to normal or slightly above
normal for the later half. There still isn`t a strong signal for any
storm system until next Sunday into Monday. The ridging over the
west will keep our area in northwesterly flow, limiting any
precipitation chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected through this evening. Then ceilings will
begin to drop as colder air moves into the area. Winds will continue
to increase this afternoon from the west-northwest. There may be some
decrease in winds at sunset but winds are expected to continue
increasing overall later tonight and especially through the day
tomorrow. The other issue will isolated to scattered snow
showers/squalls in the area. Given the coverage will continue with
just a low impact -SHSN mention. But if a terminal sees a heavier
squall there will be brief IFR conditions. The most likely timing of
this should be from around 09Z through 15Z with coverage diminishing
later tomorrow morning and afternoon.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ102.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ005-006-
     013>015-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 072047
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Little has changed in the forecast over the last day. Water vapor
and 1.5 PVU pressure plots show a strong but strung out PV anomaly
rapidly diving through eastern Nebraska. This wave will likely push
through the forecast area this evening in a span of few hours. We
should see an increase in winds as the wave is moving through but may
not see the full potential given the overnight passage. It will still
be very windy though during the overnight. Soon after sunrise, as
mixing becomes deeper/maximized, winds and especially wind gusts
should really start to increase and it`s likely that gusts to or
perhaps in excess of 45 mph will occur through the afternoon AND
early evening hours.

The other aspect of this system remains the potential for
convectively driven show showers/squalls. Forecast soundings
continue to show steep low-level lapse rates, even in the overnight
hours. This is likely a result of mixing associated with high PV air
streaming overhead. Regardless, models continue to show decent
surface based CAPE, for winter, with saturation occurring through the
lower half of a deep dendritic zone. Additionally, high resolution
models continue to show streaks in the model QPF, indicative of
convective type precipitation in a fast moving flow regime, not
banded snowfall since there is no frontogensis involved. Given this,
feel confident bringing in snow showers/squalls later tonight and
persisting them through around the noon hour in our west and a
little later in our eastern forecast area. QPF remains relatively
low, likely less than a tenth of an inch through the entire event.
But with a very localized nature to any heavier snow, there may be
amounts higher and thus a localized higher snow amount. Snow ratios
continue to look well above our normal values and likely around
20:1.

Headlines are very problematic with this event as there are multiple
elements involved and issues with coverage of snow. The highest
impact snows will be localized given showery nature to the
precipitation and it`s likely that not everyone will see snow. The
winds however will be more widespread and gusting perhaps in excess
of 45 mph. After coordinating with neighbors, feel that going with a
wind advisory with this forecast issuance, capturing the most likely
and widespread hazard is the route to go. Then as snow
showers/squalls move into the region a shorter term SPS(s) can be
used. Will continue to mention the localized nature/impact in the HWO
briefing packet.

As with yesterday`s forecast, the extended portion remains quiet.
Temperatures will be colder than normal for the first half of the
week with some moderation to closer to normal or slightly above
normal for the later half. There still isn`t a strong signal for any
storm system until next Sunday into Monday. The ridging over the
west will keep our area in northwesterly flow, limiting any
precipitation chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected through this evening. Then ceilings will
begin to drop as colder air moves into the area. Winds will continue
to increase this afternoon from the west-northwest. There may be some
decrease in winds at sunset but winds are expected to continue
increasing overall later tonight and especially through the day
tomorrow. The other issue will isolated to scattered snow
showers/squalls in the area. Given the coverage will continue with
just a low impact -SHSN mention. But if a terminal sees a heavier
squall there will be brief IFR conditions. The most likely timing of
this should be from around 09Z through 15Z with coverage diminishing
later tomorrow morning and afternoon.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ102.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ005-006-
     013>015-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 072047
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Little has changed in the forecast over the last day. Water vapor
and 1.5 PVU pressure plots show a strong but strung out PV anomaly
rapidly diving through eastern Nebraska. This wave will likely push
through the forecast area this evening in a span of few hours. We
should see an increase in winds as the wave is moving through but may
not see the full potential given the overnight passage. It will still
be very windy though during the overnight. Soon after sunrise, as
mixing becomes deeper/maximized, winds and especially wind gusts
should really start to increase and it`s likely that gusts to or
perhaps in excess of 45 mph will occur through the afternoon AND
early evening hours.

The other aspect of this system remains the potential for
convectively driven show showers/squalls. Forecast soundings
continue to show steep low-level lapse rates, even in the overnight
hours. This is likely a result of mixing associated with high PV air
streaming overhead. Regardless, models continue to show decent
surface based CAPE, for winter, with saturation occurring through the
lower half of a deep dendritic zone. Additionally, high resolution
models continue to show streaks in the model QPF, indicative of
convective type precipitation in a fast moving flow regime, not
banded snowfall since there is no frontogensis involved. Given this,
feel confident bringing in snow showers/squalls later tonight and
persisting them through around the noon hour in our west and a
little later in our eastern forecast area. QPF remains relatively
low, likely less than a tenth of an inch through the entire event.
But with a very localized nature to any heavier snow, there may be
amounts higher and thus a localized higher snow amount. Snow ratios
continue to look well above our normal values and likely around
20:1.

Headlines are very problematic with this event as there are multiple
elements involved and issues with coverage of snow. The highest
impact snows will be localized given showery nature to the
precipitation and it`s likely that not everyone will see snow. The
winds however will be more widespread and gusting perhaps in excess
of 45 mph. After coordinating with neighbors, feel that going with a
wind advisory with this forecast issuance, capturing the most likely
and widespread hazard is the route to go. Then as snow
showers/squalls move into the region a shorter term SPS(s) can be
used. Will continue to mention the localized nature/impact in the HWO
briefing packet.

As with yesterday`s forecast, the extended portion remains quiet.
Temperatures will be colder than normal for the first half of the
week with some moderation to closer to normal or slightly above
normal for the later half. There still isn`t a strong signal for any
storm system until next Sunday into Monday. The ridging over the
west will keep our area in northwesterly flow, limiting any
precipitation chances.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected through this evening. Then ceilings will
begin to drop as colder air moves into the area. Winds will continue
to increase this afternoon from the west-northwest. There may be some
decrease in winds at sunset but winds are expected to continue
increasing overall later tonight and especially through the day
tomorrow. The other issue will isolated to scattered snow
showers/squalls in the area. Given the coverage will continue with
just a low impact -SHSN mention. But if a terminal sees a heavier
squall there will be brief IFR conditions. The most likely timing of
this should be from around 09Z through 15Z with coverage diminishing
later tomorrow morning and afternoon.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ102.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ005-006-
     013>015-020>024-028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>004-011-
     012.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KSGF 071805
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

A strong upper level trough is beginning to dig across the Upper
Midwest this morning and will drag down a strong cold front this
evening. We will see a mixture of sunshine and high and mid level
clouds today. Today will be mild with temperatures climbing in the
middle 50s. Winds will increase out of the west and southwest
today and shift to northwest by this evening with the passage of
the front. Winds gusts today will be approaching 35 mph this
afternoon and evening.

Fire weather conditions will be a concern but not technically
hitting Red Flag criteria for areas of southeast Kansas and
western Missouri. See the fire weather section below for more
details. Cloud cover rapidly moves in tonight and snow flurries or
light snow showers will be possible by early tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Monday will be very windy and much colder. Northwest winds will
gusts up to 40 to 45 mph at times. A wind advisory is looking more
likely for tomorrow. The high temperature will likely occur
shortly after midnight tonight and remain steady or slowly fall
during the day on Monday with temperatures likely around the lower
30s or upper 20s by the afternoon. Wind chills will be in the
teens to single digits during the day.

There will be enough moisture for flurries likely or bands of
light snow showers especially over central Missouri and the
eastern half of the Ozarks. There may be a light dusting of
accumulation at most but significant impacts are not expected. The
wind and cold will be the main weather story. Wind chills by
Monday night into Tuesday morning will be down to around zero
possible.

The deep trough over the eastern half of the U.S. hangs around
through Tuesday with cold weather through mid week for the Ozarks
region. Another cold front will move through Tuesday night into
Wednesday with no weather associated with it. This feature will
just reinforce the cold weather through Wednesday.

The trough begins to lift out of the area and the upper level flow
becomes more west-northwest by Thursday with a slow moderation of
temperatures for the end of the week. Temperatures will be back to
seasonable levels by Friday and Saturday. The weather looks mainly
dry for the rest of the week into the early part of the weekend.
Models still indicate another system on the horizon to watch in
about 8 to 9 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Winds will veer and become increasing
strong, particularly late in the taf period, behind a cold
frontal passage. A lack of low level moisture will keep
conditions vfr, but some flurries/snow showers will be possible
after 12z, mainly at KSGF and points north and east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift today, gusty winds will
occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural cover
fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in the
region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be on
the increase today and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close today),
but the basic message of harder to control outdoor burning
continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather forecast,
special weather statement, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Griffin



000
FXUS63 KSGF 071805
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

A strong upper level trough is beginning to dig across the Upper
Midwest this morning and will drag down a strong cold front this
evening. We will see a mixture of sunshine and high and mid level
clouds today. Today will be mild with temperatures climbing in the
middle 50s. Winds will increase out of the west and southwest
today and shift to northwest by this evening with the passage of
the front. Winds gusts today will be approaching 35 mph this
afternoon and evening.

Fire weather conditions will be a concern but not technically
hitting Red Flag criteria for areas of southeast Kansas and
western Missouri. See the fire weather section below for more
details. Cloud cover rapidly moves in tonight and snow flurries or
light snow showers will be possible by early tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Monday will be very windy and much colder. Northwest winds will
gusts up to 40 to 45 mph at times. A wind advisory is looking more
likely for tomorrow. The high temperature will likely occur
shortly after midnight tonight and remain steady or slowly fall
during the day on Monday with temperatures likely around the lower
30s or upper 20s by the afternoon. Wind chills will be in the
teens to single digits during the day.

There will be enough moisture for flurries likely or bands of
light snow showers especially over central Missouri and the
eastern half of the Ozarks. There may be a light dusting of
accumulation at most but significant impacts are not expected. The
wind and cold will be the main weather story. Wind chills by
Monday night into Tuesday morning will be down to around zero
possible.

The deep trough over the eastern half of the U.S. hangs around
through Tuesday with cold weather through mid week for the Ozarks
region. Another cold front will move through Tuesday night into
Wednesday with no weather associated with it. This feature will
just reinforce the cold weather through Wednesday.

The trough begins to lift out of the area and the upper level flow
becomes more west-northwest by Thursday with a slow moderation of
temperatures for the end of the week. Temperatures will be back to
seasonable levels by Friday and Saturday. The weather looks mainly
dry for the rest of the week into the early part of the weekend.
Models still indicate another system on the horizon to watch in
about 8 to 9 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Winds will veer and become increasing
strong, particularly late in the taf period, behind a cold
frontal passage. A lack of low level moisture will keep
conditions vfr, but some flurries/snow showers will be possible
after 12z, mainly at KSGF and points north and east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift today, gusty winds will
occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural cover
fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in the
region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be on
the increase today and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close today),
but the basic message of harder to control outdoor burning
continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather forecast,
special weather statement, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KLSX 071746
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through late this afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Enjoy today if you like mild temperatures. It will be the last one
like it for at least a week. Big changes on the way over the next
24-36 hours and a return of winter cold in response to tremendous
large scale amplification of the upper air pattern. Two short wave
trofs of interest early this morning, one moving through the upper
MS Valley and another moving out of Saskatchewan into the northern
Plains. The lead wave will weaken and shift eastward into the
Great Lakes this morning while the trailing wave will deepen and
dig rapidly southeastward thanks to an attendant 125+ kt ULJ. This
wave will reach the Mid MS Valley by 00Z, and will drive a front
through the CWA beginning after 15z. Veering southwest-west winds
ahead of the front, continued low level WAA, and relatively mild
early morning temps should allow most locations to climb into the
50s before the fall begins during the later afternoon. There is
still some question as to whether we will see any precipitation
today along/ahead of the front. Large height falls/increasing
large scale ascent and moisture during the afternoon associated
with the upper system may be sufficient to generate spotty showers
across east central/southeast MO into southwest IL in the 21-03z
time frame.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

A secondary cold surge/front, denoted by increasing and gusty
northwest winds and trofing the cyclonic surface flow, will enter
the area later in the evening bringing strong CAA and much colder
temperatures, and some snow. Monday will be a Winnie The Pooh type
day with cold, blustery conditions. The coverage of snow is the
biggest question mark. Model QPFs are rather light through 00z
Tuesday, and numerous CAMs showed narrow cyclonically curved bands
overnight Sunday into Monday. Model soundings indeed show favorable
shear and stability profiles for horizontal convective rolls in
the lowest 10 kft. This would suggest some spots could get no more
than a light dusting while others might see snow accumulations of
up to an inch.

Below average temperatures and cold will dominate Tuesday and
Wednesday as a deep expansive upper trof dominates the eastern
2/3rds of the Nation. During the later part of the week and into
the weekend, heights aloft rise as the amplitude of the trof
diminishes and becomes more broad, with flow aloft backing from
NNW to WNW. This would suggest at least some moderation of
temperatures, however maybe not as much as the GFS and MEX MOS
might suggest. The ECMWF is much colder with sharper cyclonic
curvature to the flow aloft, allowing another cold surge on Friday
that lasts into the weekend.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: VFR for the first 0-6 hours and possibly
longer. MVFR stratus is expected to reach the terminals after 03z.
Snow showers will develop overnight and persist through the end of
the TAF period. Transient IFR vsbys are possible at times when the
heavier snow showers move directly over the terminals, but it is
not possible to pin down a more exact window this far in advance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-6 hours and
probably for the first 0-12 hours. A cold front was moving
through the St. Louis metro area at TAF issuance. Winds were
gradually turning westerly behind the front and wind gusts had
increased to around 25 kts. MVFR stratus is not expected to reach
the St. Louis metro terminals until after 06z. Snow showers will
likely develop early tomorrow morning and persist through the
afternoon. Transient IFR vsbys are possible at times when the
heavier snow showers move directly over the terminals, but it is
not possible to pin down a more exact window this far in advance.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 071746
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through late this afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Enjoy today if you like mild temperatures. It will be the last one
like it for at least a week. Big changes on the way over the next
24-36 hours and a return of winter cold in response to tremendous
large scale amplification of the upper air pattern. Two short wave
trofs of interest early this morning, one moving through the upper
MS Valley and another moving out of Saskatchewan into the northern
Plains. The lead wave will weaken and shift eastward into the
Great Lakes this morning while the trailing wave will deepen and
dig rapidly southeastward thanks to an attendant 125+ kt ULJ. This
wave will reach the Mid MS Valley by 00Z, and will drive a front
through the CWA beginning after 15z. Veering southwest-west winds
ahead of the front, continued low level WAA, and relatively mild
early morning temps should allow most locations to climb into the
50s before the fall begins during the later afternoon. There is
still some question as to whether we will see any precipitation
today along/ahead of the front. Large height falls/increasing
large scale ascent and moisture during the afternoon associated
with the upper system may be sufficient to generate spotty showers
across east central/southeast MO into southwest IL in the 21-03z
time frame.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

A secondary cold surge/front, denoted by increasing and gusty
northwest winds and trofing the cyclonic surface flow, will enter
the area later in the evening bringing strong CAA and much colder
temperatures, and some snow. Monday will be a Winnie The Pooh type
day with cold, blustery conditions. The coverage of snow is the
biggest question mark. Model QPFs are rather light through 00z
Tuesday, and numerous CAMs showed narrow cyclonically curved bands
overnight Sunday into Monday. Model soundings indeed show favorable
shear and stability profiles for horizontal convective rolls in
the lowest 10 kft. This would suggest some spots could get no more
than a light dusting while others might see snow accumulations of
up to an inch.

Below average temperatures and cold will dominate Tuesday and
Wednesday as a deep expansive upper trof dominates the eastern
2/3rds of the Nation. During the later part of the week and into
the weekend, heights aloft rise as the amplitude of the trof
diminishes and becomes more broad, with flow aloft backing from
NNW to WNW. This would suggest at least some moderation of
temperatures, however maybe not as much as the GFS and MEX MOS
might suggest. The ECMWF is much colder with sharper cyclonic
curvature to the flow aloft, allowing another cold surge on Friday
that lasts into the weekend.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: VFR for the first 0-6 hours and possibly
longer. MVFR stratus is expected to reach the terminals after 03z.
Snow showers will develop overnight and persist through the end of
the TAF period. Transient IFR vsbys are possible at times when the
heavier snow showers move directly over the terminals, but it is
not possible to pin down a more exact window this far in advance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-6 hours and
probably for the first 0-12 hours. A cold front was moving
through the St. Louis metro area at TAF issuance. Winds were
gradually turning westerly behind the front and wind gusts had
increased to around 25 kts. MVFR stratus is not expected to reach
the St. Louis metro terminals until after 06z. Snow showers will
likely develop early tomorrow morning and persist through the
afternoon. Transient IFR vsbys are possible at times when the
heavier snow showers move directly over the terminals, but it is
not possible to pin down a more exact window this far in advance.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 071746
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through late this afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Enjoy today if you like mild temperatures. It will be the last one
like it for at least a week. Big changes on the way over the next
24-36 hours and a return of winter cold in response to tremendous
large scale amplification of the upper air pattern. Two short wave
trofs of interest early this morning, one moving through the upper
MS Valley and another moving out of Saskatchewan into the northern
Plains. The lead wave will weaken and shift eastward into the
Great Lakes this morning while the trailing wave will deepen and
dig rapidly southeastward thanks to an attendant 125+ kt ULJ. This
wave will reach the Mid MS Valley by 00Z, and will drive a front
through the CWA beginning after 15z. Veering southwest-west winds
ahead of the front, continued low level WAA, and relatively mild
early morning temps should allow most locations to climb into the
50s before the fall begins during the later afternoon. There is
still some question as to whether we will see any precipitation
today along/ahead of the front. Large height falls/increasing
large scale ascent and moisture during the afternoon associated
with the upper system may be sufficient to generate spotty showers
across east central/southeast MO into southwest IL in the 21-03z
time frame.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

A secondary cold surge/front, denoted by increasing and gusty
northwest winds and trofing the cyclonic surface flow, will enter
the area later in the evening bringing strong CAA and much colder
temperatures, and some snow. Monday will be a Winnie The Pooh type
day with cold, blustery conditions. The coverage of snow is the
biggest question mark. Model QPFs are rather light through 00z
Tuesday, and numerous CAMs showed narrow cyclonically curved bands
overnight Sunday into Monday. Model soundings indeed show favorable
shear and stability profiles for horizontal convective rolls in
the lowest 10 kft. This would suggest some spots could get no more
than a light dusting while others might see snow accumulations of
up to an inch.

Below average temperatures and cold will dominate Tuesday and
Wednesday as a deep expansive upper trof dominates the eastern
2/3rds of the Nation. During the later part of the week and into
the weekend, heights aloft rise as the amplitude of the trof
diminishes and becomes more broad, with flow aloft backing from
NNW to WNW. This would suggest at least some moderation of
temperatures, however maybe not as much as the GFS and MEX MOS
might suggest. The ECMWF is much colder with sharper cyclonic
curvature to the flow aloft, allowing another cold surge on Friday
that lasts into the weekend.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: VFR for the first 0-6 hours and possibly
longer. MVFR stratus is expected to reach the terminals after 03z.
Snow showers will develop overnight and persist through the end of
the TAF period. Transient IFR vsbys are possible at times when the
heavier snow showers move directly over the terminals, but it is
not possible to pin down a more exact window this far in advance.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: VFR for the first 0-6 hours and
probably for the first 0-12 hours. A cold front was moving
through the St. Louis metro area at TAF issuance. Winds were
gradually turning westerly behind the front and wind gusts had
increased to around 25 kts. MVFR stratus is not expected to reach
the St. Louis metro terminals until after 06z. Snow showers will
likely develop early tomorrow morning and persist through the
afternoon. Transient IFR vsbys are possible at times when the
heavier snow showers move directly over the terminals, but it is
not possible to pin down a more exact window this far in advance.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 071737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Forecast remains on track from previous package and only minor
adjustments were required. Shortwave ridging currently in place and
with a brief window of warming H85 temperatures and starting this
morning relatively warm, shouldn`t have much of a problem reaching
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the forecast area this afternoon.
Attention turns to approaching upper disturbance over the northern
plains that will dive southeast and rapidly amplify. This system
will bring two aspects of notable weather - gusty winds and light
but potentially impactful snow showers. Healthy pressure gradient
should yield gusty northwest winds today into Monday afternoon.
Sustained winds will exceed 20 kts this afternoon with higher gusts,
with sustained speeds in excess of 25 kts Monday afternoon. While we
will be just short of wind advisory speeds today, it`s looking
increasingly likely to reach criteria on Monday. Otherwise,
attention turns to snowfall potential tonight into Monday. As
described in detail in previous discussions, concern for showery,
convective-type snows are expected with this system with modest
instability within a deep dendritic growth zone. Several high-
resolution and CAMs infer this type of showery convection,
increasing confidence in forecast scenario. While overall moisture
is limited with this system and snowfall totals will average under
one inch, snowfall that does occur will feature higher than climo
snowfall ratios and quick-burst type snowfall, rapidly reducing
visibility in a short-period of time due to the convective nature.
These types of events are notorious for dangerous travel conditions
due to the spotty nature of no-snow versus a rapid deterioration of
moderate snowfall with poor visibility. This potential travel
impact, combined with the gusty wind speeds, are the primary
concerns to convey over the next 36 hours. The remaining portion of
the forecast looks quiet and dry with no notable weather systems
anticipated to impact the area. Temperatures will be much cooler
during the early work week, with gradually moderating temperatures
each day into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected through this evening. Then ceilings will
begin to drop as colder air moves into the area. Winds will continue
to increase this afternoon from the west-northwest. There may be some
decrease in winds at sunset but winds are expected to continue
increasing overall later tonight and especially through the day
tomorrow. The other issue will isolated to scattered snow
showers/squalls in the area. Given the coverage will continue with
just a low impact -SHSN mention. But if a terminal sees a heavier
squall there will be brief IFR conditions. The most likely timing of
this should be from around 09Z through 15Z with coverage diminishing
later tomorrow morning and afternoon.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 071201
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
601 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Forecast remains on track from previous package and only minor
adjustments were required. Shortwave ridging currently in place and
with a brief window of warming H85 temperatures and starting this
morning relatively warm, shouldn`t have much of a problem reaching
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the forecast area this afternoon.
Attention turns to approaching upper disturbance over the northern
plains that will dive southeast and rapidly amplify. This system
will bring two aspects of notable weather - gusty winds and light
but potentially impactful snow showers. Healthy pressure gradient
should yield gusty northwest winds today into Monday afternoon.
Sustained winds will exceed 20 kts this afternoon with higher gusts,
with sustained speeds in excess of 25 kts Monday afternoon. While we
will be just short of wind advisory speeds today, it`s looking
increasingly likely to reach criteria on Monday. Otherwise,
attention turns to snowfall potential tonight into Monday. As
described in detail in previous discussions, concern for showery,
convective-type snows are expected with this system with modest
instability within a deep dendritic growth zone. Several high-
resolution and CAMs infer this type of showery convection,
increasing confidence in forecast scenario. While overall moisture
is limited with this system and snowfall totals will average under
one inch, snowfall that does occur will feature higher than climo
snowfall ratios and quick-burst type snowfall, rapidly reducing
visibility in a short-period of time due to the convective nature.
These types of events are notorious for dangerous travel conditions
due to the spotty nature of no-snow versus a rapid deterioration of
moderate snowfall with poor visibility. This potential travel
impact, combined with the gusty wind speeds, are the primary
concerns to convey over the next 36 hours. The remaining portion of
the forecast looks quiet and dry with no notable weather systems
anticipated to impact the area. Temperatures will be much cooler
during the early work week, with gradually moderating temperatures
each day into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR through much of the day before potential increases for
deteriorating conditions at the end of the forecast period. A couple
more hours of some low-level wind shear concerns - winds will
increase by late morning with gusts in excess of 25 kts. Ceilings
will gradually lower during the day, with potential by Monday morning
for snow showers reducing visibility and lowered ceilings to at
least MVFR.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair



000
FXUS63 KEAX 071201
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
601 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Forecast remains on track from previous package and only minor
adjustments were required. Shortwave ridging currently in place and
with a brief window of warming H85 temperatures and starting this
morning relatively warm, shouldn`t have much of a problem reaching
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the forecast area this afternoon.
Attention turns to approaching upper disturbance over the northern
plains that will dive southeast and rapidly amplify. This system
will bring two aspects of notable weather - gusty winds and light
but potentially impactful snow showers. Healthy pressure gradient
should yield gusty northwest winds today into Monday afternoon.
Sustained winds will exceed 20 kts this afternoon with higher gusts,
with sustained speeds in excess of 25 kts Monday afternoon. While we
will be just short of wind advisory speeds today, it`s looking
increasingly likely to reach criteria on Monday. Otherwise,
attention turns to snowfall potential tonight into Monday. As
described in detail in previous discussions, concern for showery,
convective-type snows are expected with this system with modest
instability within a deep dendritic growth zone. Several high-
resolution and CAMs infer this type of showery convection,
increasing confidence in forecast scenario. While overall moisture
is limited with this system and snowfall totals will average under
one inch, snowfall that does occur will feature higher than climo
snowfall ratios and quick-burst type snowfall, rapidly reducing
visibility in a short-period of time due to the convective nature.
These types of events are notorious for dangerous travel conditions
due to the spotty nature of no-snow versus a rapid deterioration of
moderate snowfall with poor visibility. This potential travel
impact, combined with the gusty wind speeds, are the primary
concerns to convey over the next 36 hours. The remaining portion of
the forecast looks quiet and dry with no notable weather systems
anticipated to impact the area. Temperatures will be much cooler
during the early work week, with gradually moderating temperatures
each day into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR through much of the day before potential increases for
deteriorating conditions at the end of the forecast period. A couple
more hours of some low-level wind shear concerns - winds will
increase by late morning with gusts in excess of 25 kts. Ceilings
will gradually lower during the day, with potential by Monday morning
for snow showers reducing visibility and lowered ceilings to at
least MVFR.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KSGF 071146
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

A strong upper level trough is beginning to dig across the Upper
Midwest this morning and will drag down a strong cold front this
evening. We will see a mixture of sunshine and high and mid level
clouds today. Today will be mild with temperatures climbing in the
middle 50s. Winds will increase out of the west and southwest
today and shift to northwest by this evening with the passage of
the front. Winds gusts today will be approaching 35 mph this
afternoon and evening.

Fire weather conditions will be a concern but not technically
hitting Red Flag criteria for areas of southeast Kansas and
western Missouri. See the fire weather section below for more
details. Cloud cover rapidly moves in tonight and snow flurries or
light snow showers will be possible by early tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Monday will be very windy and much colder. Northwest winds will
gusts up to 40 to 45 mph at times. A wind advisory is looking more
likely for tomorrow. The high temperature will likely occur
shortly after midnight tonight and remain steady or slowly fall
during the day on Monday with temperatures likely around the lower
30s or upper 20s by the afternoon. Wind chills will be in the
teens to single digits during the day.

There will be enough moisture for flurries likely or bands of
light snow showers especially over central Missouri and the
eastern half of the Ozarks. There may be a light dusting of
accumulation at most but significant impacts are not expected. The
wind and cold will be the main weather story. Wind chills by
Monday night into Tuesday morning will be down to around zero
possible.

The deep trough over the eastern half of the U.S. hangs around
through Tuesday with cold weather through mid week for the Ozarks
region. Another cold front will move through Tuesday night into
Wednesday with no weather associated with it. This feature will
just reinforce the cold weather through Wednesday.

The trough begins to lift out of the area and the upper level flow
becomes more west-northwest by Thursday with a slow moderation of
temperatures for the end of the week. Temperatures will be back to
seasonable levels by Friday and Saturday. The weather looks mainly
dry for the rest of the week into the early part of the weekend.
Models still indicate another system on the horizon to watch in
about 8 to 9 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 0539 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions and increasing westerly winds today
at area terminals. Winds will veer to the northwest tonight and
remain gusty as a cold front moves across the region. Clouds will
increase tonight with gradually lowering cloud decks. Could see
some MVFR ceilings toward sunrise Monday. Low level wind shear
will impact the area this morning and again tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift today, gusty winds will
occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural cover
fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in the
region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be on
the increase today and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close today),
but the basic message of harder to control outdoor burning
continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather forecast,
special weather statement, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
FIRE WEATHER...Griffin



000
FXUS63 KSGF 071146
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

A strong upper level trough is beginning to dig across the Upper
Midwest this morning and will drag down a strong cold front this
evening. We will see a mixture of sunshine and high and mid level
clouds today. Today will be mild with temperatures climbing in the
middle 50s. Winds will increase out of the west and southwest
today and shift to northwest by this evening with the passage of
the front. Winds gusts today will be approaching 35 mph this
afternoon and evening.

Fire weather conditions will be a concern but not technically
hitting Red Flag criteria for areas of southeast Kansas and
western Missouri. See the fire weather section below for more
details. Cloud cover rapidly moves in tonight and snow flurries or
light snow showers will be possible by early tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Monday will be very windy and much colder. Northwest winds will
gusts up to 40 to 45 mph at times. A wind advisory is looking more
likely for tomorrow. The high temperature will likely occur
shortly after midnight tonight and remain steady or slowly fall
during the day on Monday with temperatures likely around the lower
30s or upper 20s by the afternoon. Wind chills will be in the
teens to single digits during the day.

There will be enough moisture for flurries likely or bands of
light snow showers especially over central Missouri and the
eastern half of the Ozarks. There may be a light dusting of
accumulation at most but significant impacts are not expected. The
wind and cold will be the main weather story. Wind chills by
Monday night into Tuesday morning will be down to around zero
possible.

The deep trough over the eastern half of the U.S. hangs around
through Tuesday with cold weather through mid week for the Ozarks
region. Another cold front will move through Tuesday night into
Wednesday with no weather associated with it. This feature will
just reinforce the cold weather through Wednesday.

The trough begins to lift out of the area and the upper level flow
becomes more west-northwest by Thursday with a slow moderation of
temperatures for the end of the week. Temperatures will be back to
seasonable levels by Friday and Saturday. The weather looks mainly
dry for the rest of the week into the early part of the weekend.
Models still indicate another system on the horizon to watch in
about 8 to 9 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 0539 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions and increasing westerly winds today
at area terminals. Winds will veer to the northwest tonight and
remain gusty as a cold front moves across the region. Clouds will
increase tonight with gradually lowering cloud decks. Could see
some MVFR ceilings toward sunrise Monday. Low level wind shear
will impact the area this morning and again tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift today, gusty winds will
occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural cover
fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in the
region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be on
the increase today and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close today),
but the basic message of harder to control outdoor burning
continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather forecast,
special weather statement, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
FIRE WEATHER...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KLSX 071058
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
458 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through late this afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Enjoy today if you like mild temperatures. It will be the last one
like it for at least a week. Big changes on the way over the next
24-36 hours and a return of winter cold in response to tremendous
large scale amplification of the upper air pattern. Two short wave
trofs of interest early this morning, one moving through the upper
MS Valley and another moving out of Saskatchewan into the northern
Plains. The lead wave will weaken and shift eastward into the
Great Lakes this morning while the trailing wave will deepen and
dig rapidly southeastward thanks to an attendant 125+ kt ULJ. This
wave will reach the Mid MS Valley by 00Z, and will drive a front
through the CWA beginning after 15z. Veering southwest-west winds
ahead of the front, continued low level WAA, and relatively mild
early morning temps should allow most locations to climb into the
50s before the fall begins during the later afternoon. There is
still some question as to whether we will see any precipitation
today along/ahead of the front. Large height falls/increasing
large scale ascent and moisture during the afternoon associated
with the upper system may be sufficient to generate spotty showers
across east central/southeast MO into southwest IL in the 21-03z
time frame.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

A secondary cold surge/front, denoted by increasing and gusty
northwest winds and trofing the cyclonic surface flow, will enter
the area later in the evening bringing strong CAA and much colder
temperatures, and some snow. Monday will be a Winnie The Pooh type
day with cold, blustry conditions. The coverage of snow is the
biggest question mark. Model QPFs are rather light through 00z
Tuesday, and numerous CAMs showed narrow cyclonically curved bands
overnight Sunday into Monday. Model soundings indeed show favorable
shear and stability profiles for horizontal convective rolls in
the lowest 10 kft. This would suggest some spots could get no more
than a light dusting while others might see snow accumulations of
up to an inch.

Below average temperatures and cold will dominate Tuesday and
Wednesday as a deep expansive upper trof dominates the eastern
2/3rds of the Nation. During the later part of the week and into
the weekend, heights aloft rise as the amplitude of the trof
diminishes and becomes more broad, with flow aloft backing from
NNW to WNW. This would suggest at least some moderation of
temperatures, however maybe not as much as the GFS and MEX MOS
might suggest. The ECMWF is much colder with sharper cyclonic
curvature to the flow aloft, allowing another cold surge on Friday
that lasts into the weekend.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 434 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Strong low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes region
and control the weather throuh the period. Cold front moving into
northwest MO will race across the state today with the southwest
wind shifting to west northwest with gusts in the 20 - 25 kt
range. Continued cyclonic flow in the upper atmosphere will
produce some bands of light snow late in the period. Nothing
widespread expected and impossible to pin down so no visibility
restrictions will be entered at this time. Cloud cover looks to
stay VFR today, with some marginal bands moving into northeast MO
by 03z.

Specifics for KSTL: Cold front should arrive around Noon with
winds going west and gusting aroud 20 knots. Not much expected
until the colder air really begins surging into the area tonight.
A period of marginal ceilings would be most likely after 06z. Some
light snow will likley be in the air but nothing consistent.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 070951
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
351 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Forecast remains on track from previous package and only minor
adjustments were required. Shortwave ridging currently in place and
with a brief window of warming H85 temperatures and starting this
morning relatively warm, shouldn`t have much of a problem reaching
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the forecast area this afternoon.
Attention turns to approaching upper disturbance over the northern
plains that will dive southeast and rapidly amplify. This system
will bring two aspects of notable weather - gusty winds and light
but potentially impactful snow showers. Healthy pressure gradient
should yield gusty northwest winds today into Monday afternoon.
Sustained winds will exceed 20 kts this afternoon with higher gusts,
with sustained speeds in excess of 25 kts Monday afternoon. While we
will be just short of wind advisory speeds today, it`s looking
increasingly likely to reach criteria on Monday. Otherwise,
attention turns to snowfall potential tonight into Monday. As
described in detail in previous discussions, concern for showery,
convective-type snows are expected with this system with modest
instability within a deep dendritic growth zone. Several high-
resolution and CAMs infer this type of showery convection,
increasing confidence in forecast scenario. While overall moisture
is limited with this system and snowfall totals will average under
one inch, snowfall that does occur will feature higher than climo
snowfall ratios and quick-burst type snowfall, rapidly reducing
visibility in a short-period of time due to the convective nature.
These types of events are notorious for dangerous travel conditions
due to the spotty nature of no-snow versus a rapid deterioration of
moderate snowfall with poor visibility. This potential travel
impact, combined with the gusty wind speeds, are the primary
concerns to convey over the next 36 hours. The remaining portion of
the forecast looks quiet and dry with no notable weather systems
anticipated to impact the area. Temperatures will be much cooler
during the early work week, with gradually moderating temperatures
each day into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Winds around 2kft will steadily accelerate to 45-50kts overnight,
which coupled with moderate winds at the surface, will produce a
30kt speed shear until sunrise. Throughout the day, SW winds will
turn NW as a cold front crosses the area Sunday morning. Winds will
steadily increase through the afternoon, gusting to near 30kts during
the afternoon. Gusts should quickly drop off Sunday evening, though
increased sustained winds will continue through the end of the
period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 070951
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
351 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Forecast remains on track from previous package and only minor
adjustments were required. Shortwave ridging currently in place and
with a brief window of warming H85 temperatures and starting this
morning relatively warm, shouldn`t have much of a problem reaching
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the forecast area this afternoon.
Attention turns to approaching upper disturbance over the northern
plains that will dive southeast and rapidly amplify. This system
will bring two aspects of notable weather - gusty winds and light
but potentially impactful snow showers. Healthy pressure gradient
should yield gusty northwest winds today into Monday afternoon.
Sustained winds will exceed 20 kts this afternoon with higher gusts,
with sustained speeds in excess of 25 kts Monday afternoon. While we
will be just short of wind advisory speeds today, it`s looking
increasingly likely to reach criteria on Monday. Otherwise,
attention turns to snowfall potential tonight into Monday. As
described in detail in previous discussions, concern for showery,
convective-type snows are expected with this system with modest
instability within a deep dendritic growth zone. Several high-
resolution and CAMs infer this type of showery convection,
increasing confidence in forecast scenario. While overall moisture
is limited with this system and snowfall totals will average under
one inch, snowfall that does occur will feature higher than climo
snowfall ratios and quick-burst type snowfall, rapidly reducing
visibility in a short-period of time due to the convective nature.
These types of events are notorious for dangerous travel conditions
due to the spotty nature of no-snow versus a rapid deterioration of
moderate snowfall with poor visibility. This potential travel
impact, combined with the gusty wind speeds, are the primary
concerns to convey over the next 36 hours. The remaining portion of
the forecast looks quiet and dry with no notable weather systems
anticipated to impact the area. Temperatures will be much cooler
during the early work week, with gradually moderating temperatures
each day into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Winds around 2kft will steadily accelerate to 45-50kts overnight,
which coupled with moderate winds at the surface, will produce a
30kt speed shear until sunrise. Throughout the day, SW winds will
turn NW as a cold front crosses the area Sunday morning. Winds will
steadily increase through the afternoon, gusting to near 30kts during
the afternoon. Gusts should quickly drop off Sunday evening, though
increased sustained winds will continue through the end of the
period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 070951
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
351 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Forecast remains on track from previous package and only minor
adjustments were required. Shortwave ridging currently in place and
with a brief window of warming H85 temperatures and starting this
morning relatively warm, shouldn`t have much of a problem reaching
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the forecast area this afternoon.
Attention turns to approaching upper disturbance over the northern
plains that will dive southeast and rapidly amplify. This system
will bring two aspects of notable weather - gusty winds and light
but potentially impactful snow showers. Healthy pressure gradient
should yield gusty northwest winds today into Monday afternoon.
Sustained winds will exceed 20 kts this afternoon with higher gusts,
with sustained speeds in excess of 25 kts Monday afternoon. While we
will be just short of wind advisory speeds today, it`s looking
increasingly likely to reach criteria on Monday. Otherwise,
attention turns to snowfall potential tonight into Monday. As
described in detail in previous discussions, concern for showery,
convective-type snows are expected with this system with modest
instability within a deep dendritic growth zone. Several high-
resolution and CAMs infer this type of showery convection,
increasing confidence in forecast scenario. While overall moisture
is limited with this system and snowfall totals will average under
one inch, snowfall that does occur will feature higher than climo
snowfall ratios and quick-burst type snowfall, rapidly reducing
visibility in a short-period of time due to the convective nature.
These types of events are notorious for dangerous travel conditions
due to the spotty nature of no-snow versus a rapid deterioration of
moderate snowfall with poor visibility. This potential travel
impact, combined with the gusty wind speeds, are the primary
concerns to convey over the next 36 hours. The remaining portion of
the forecast looks quiet and dry with no notable weather systems
anticipated to impact the area. Temperatures will be much cooler
during the early work week, with gradually moderating temperatures
each day into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Winds around 2kft will steadily accelerate to 45-50kts overnight,
which coupled with moderate winds at the surface, will produce a
30kt speed shear until sunrise. Throughout the day, SW winds will
turn NW as a cold front crosses the area Sunday morning. Winds will
steadily increase through the afternoon, gusting to near 30kts during
the afternoon. Gusts should quickly drop off Sunday evening, though
increased sustained winds will continue through the end of the
period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KLSX 070946
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through late this afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Enjoy today if you like mild temperatures. It will be the last one
like it for at least a week. Big changes on the way over the next
24-36 hours and a return of winter cold in response to tremendous
large scale amplification of the upper air pattern. Two short wave
trofs of interest early this morning, one moving through the upper
MS Valley and another moving out of Saskatchewan into the northern
Plains. The lead wave will weaken and shift eastward into the
Great Lakes this morning while the trailing wave will deepen and
dig rapidly southeastward thanks to an attendant 125+ kt ULJ. This
wave will reach the Mid MS Valley by 00Z, and will drive a front
through the CWA beginning after 15z. Veering southwest-west winds
ahead of the front, continued low level WAA, and relatively mild
early morning temps should allow most locations to climb into the
50s before the fall begins during the later afternoon. There is
still some question as to whether we will see any precipitation
today along/ahead of the front. Large height falls/increasing
large scale ascent and moisture during the afternoon associated
with the upper system may be sufficient to generate spotty showers
across east central/southeast MO into southwest IL in the 21-03z
time frame.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

A secondary cold surge/front, denoted by increasing and gusty
northwest winds and trofing the cyclonic surface flow, will enter
the area later in the evening bringing strong CAA and much colder
temperatures, and some snow. Monday will be a Winnie The Pooh type
day with cold, blustry conditions. The coverage of snow is the
biggest question mark. Model QPFs are rather light through 00z
Tuesday, and numerous CAMs showed narrow cyclonically curved bands
overnight Sunday into Monday. Model soundings indeed show favorable
shear and stability profiles for horizontal convective rolls in
the lowest 10 kft. This would suggest some spots could get no more
than a light dusting while others might see snow accumulations of
up to an inch.

Below average temperatures and cold will dominate Tuesday and
Wednesday as a deep expansive upper trof dominates the eastern
2/3rds of the Nation. During the later part of the week and into
the weekend, heights aloft rise as the amplitude of the trof
diminishes and becomes more broad, with flow aloft backing from
NNW to WNW. This would suggest at least some moderation of
temperatures, however maybe not as much as the GFS and MEX MOS
might suggest. The ECMWF is much colder with sharper cyclonic
curvature to the flow aloft, allowing another cold surge on Friday
that lasts into the weekend.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through KUIN and KCOU by 16z Sunday and STL metro
area by 18z Sunday. But with a lot of dry air to overcome, could
just see some light rain/sprinkles with it, so left mention out of
tafs at this time with just an AC deck moving in. Then on
backside of front, winds to pickup from the west to northwest
gusting to near 30kts by Sunday afternoon. Snow showers possible
but beyond the forecast period for the tafs.

Specifics for KSTL:
Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through STL metro area by 18z Sunday. But with a
lot of dry air to overcome, could just see some light rain/
sprinkles with it, so left mention out of taf at this time with
just an AC deck moving in. Then on backside of front, winds to
pickup from the west to northwest gusting to near 30kts by 21z Sunday
afternoon. Snow showers possible but beyond the forecast period
for the taf.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 070946
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through late this afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Enjoy today if you like mild temperatures. It will be the last one
like it for at least a week. Big changes on the way over the next
24-36 hours and a return of winter cold in response to tremendous
large scale amplification of the upper air pattern. Two short wave
trofs of interest early this morning, one moving through the upper
MS Valley and another moving out of Saskatchewan into the northern
Plains. The lead wave will weaken and shift eastward into the
Great Lakes this morning while the trailing wave will deepen and
dig rapidly southeastward thanks to an attendant 125+ kt ULJ. This
wave will reach the Mid MS Valley by 00Z, and will drive a front
through the CWA beginning after 15z. Veering southwest-west winds
ahead of the front, continued low level WAA, and relatively mild
early morning temps should allow most locations to climb into the
50s before the fall begins during the later afternoon. There is
still some question as to whether we will see any precipitation
today along/ahead of the front. Large height falls/increasing
large scale ascent and moisture during the afternoon associated
with the upper system may be sufficient to generate spotty showers
across east central/southeast MO into southwest IL in the 21-03z
time frame.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

A secondary cold surge/front, denoted by increasing and gusty
northwest winds and trofing the cyclonic surface flow, will enter
the area later in the evening bringing strong CAA and much colder
temperatures, and some snow. Monday will be a Winnie The Pooh type
day with cold, blustry conditions. The coverage of snow is the
biggest question mark. Model QPFs are rather light through 00z
Tuesday, and numerous CAMs showed narrow cyclonically curved bands
overnight Sunday into Monday. Model soundings indeed show favorable
shear and stability profiles for horizontal convective rolls in
the lowest 10 kft. This would suggest some spots could get no more
than a light dusting while others might see snow accumulations of
up to an inch.

Below average temperatures and cold will dominate Tuesday and
Wednesday as a deep expansive upper trof dominates the eastern
2/3rds of the Nation. During the later part of the week and into
the weekend, heights aloft rise as the amplitude of the trof
diminishes and becomes more broad, with flow aloft backing from
NNW to WNW. This would suggest at least some moderation of
temperatures, however maybe not as much as the GFS and MEX MOS
might suggest. The ECMWF is much colder with sharper cyclonic
curvature to the flow aloft, allowing another cold surge on Friday
that lasts into the weekend.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through KUIN and KCOU by 16z Sunday and STL metro
area by 18z Sunday. But with a lot of dry air to overcome, could
just see some light rain/sprinkles with it, so left mention out of
tafs at this time with just an AC deck moving in. Then on
backside of front, winds to pickup from the west to northwest
gusting to near 30kts by Sunday afternoon. Snow showers possible
but beyond the forecast period for the tafs.

Specifics for KSTL:
Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through STL metro area by 18z Sunday. But with a
lot of dry air to overcome, could just see some light rain/
sprinkles with it, so left mention out of taf at this time with
just an AC deck moving in. Then on backside of front, winds to
pickup from the west to northwest gusting to near 30kts by 21z Sunday
afternoon. Snow showers possible but beyond the forecast period
for the taf.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 070946
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Through late this afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

Enjoy today if you like mild temperatures. It will be the last one
like it for at least a week. Big changes on the way over the next
24-36 hours and a return of winter cold in response to tremendous
large scale amplification of the upper air pattern. Two short wave
trofs of interest early this morning, one moving through the upper
MS Valley and another moving out of Saskatchewan into the northern
Plains. The lead wave will weaken and shift eastward into the
Great Lakes this morning while the trailing wave will deepen and
dig rapidly southeastward thanks to an attendant 125+ kt ULJ. This
wave will reach the Mid MS Valley by 00Z, and will drive a front
through the CWA beginning after 15z. Veering southwest-west winds
ahead of the front, continued low level WAA, and relatively mild
early morning temps should allow most locations to climb into the
50s before the fall begins during the later afternoon. There is
still some question as to whether we will see any precipitation
today along/ahead of the front. Large height falls/increasing
large scale ascent and moisture during the afternoon associated
with the upper system may be sufficient to generate spotty showers
across east central/southeast MO into southwest IL in the 21-03z
time frame.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Feb 7 2016

A secondary cold surge/front, denoted by increasing and gusty
northwest winds and trofing the cyclonic surface flow, will enter
the area later in the evening bringing strong CAA and much colder
temperatures, and some snow. Monday will be a Winnie The Pooh type
day with cold, blustry conditions. The coverage of snow is the
biggest question mark. Model QPFs are rather light through 00z
Tuesday, and numerous CAMs showed narrow cyclonically curved bands
overnight Sunday into Monday. Model soundings indeed show favorable
shear and stability profiles for horizontal convective rolls in
the lowest 10 kft. This would suggest some spots could get no more
than a light dusting while others might see snow accumulations of
up to an inch.

Below average temperatures and cold will dominate Tuesday and
Wednesday as a deep expansive upper trof dominates the eastern
2/3rds of the Nation. During the later part of the week and into
the weekend, heights aloft rise as the amplitude of the trof
diminishes and becomes more broad, with flow aloft backing from
NNW to WNW. This would suggest at least some moderation of
temperatures, however maybe not as much as the GFS and MEX MOS
might suggest. The ECMWF is much colder with sharper cyclonic
curvature to the flow aloft, allowing another cold surge on Friday
that lasts into the weekend.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through KUIN and KCOU by 16z Sunday and STL metro
area by 18z Sunday. But with a lot of dry air to overcome, could
just see some light rain/sprinkles with it, so left mention out of
tafs at this time with just an AC deck moving in. Then on
backside of front, winds to pickup from the west to northwest
gusting to near 30kts by Sunday afternoon. Snow showers possible
but beyond the forecast period for the tafs.

Specifics for KSTL:
Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through STL metro area by 18z Sunday. But with a
lot of dry air to overcome, could just see some light rain/
sprinkles with it, so left mention out of taf at this time with
just an AC deck moving in. Then on backside of front, winds to
pickup from the west to northwest gusting to near 30kts by 21z Sunday
afternoon. Snow showers possible but beyond the forecast period
for the taf.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 070851
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
251 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...One More Mild Day Today and Windy...Turning Much Colder and
Very Windy Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

A strong upper level trough is beginning to dig across the Upper
Midwest this morning and will drag down a strong cold front this
evening. We will see a mixture of sunshine and high and mid level
clouds today. Today will be mild with temperatures climbing in the
middle 50s. Winds will increase out of the west and southwest
today and shift to northwest by this evening with the passage of
the front. Winds gusts today will be approaching 35 mph this
afternoon and evening.

Fire weather conditions will be a concern but not technically
hitting Red Flag criteria for areas of southeast Kansas and
western Missouri. See the fire weather section below for more
details. Cloud cover rapidly moves in tonight and snow flurries or
light snow showers will be possible by early tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Monday will be very windy and much colder. Northwest winds will
gusts up to 40 to 45 mph at times. A wind advisory is looking more
likely for tomorrow. The high temperature will likely occur
shortly after midnight tonight and remain steady or slowly fall
during the day on Monday with temperatures likely around the lower
30s or upper 20s by the afternoon. Wind chills will be in the
teens to single digits during the day.

There will be enough moisture for flurries likely or bands of
light snow showers especially over central Missouri and the
eastern half of the Ozarks. There may be a light dusting of
accumulation at most but significant impacts are not expected. The
wind and cold will be the main weather story. Wind chills by
Monday night into Tuesday morning will be down to around zero
possible.

The deep trough over the eastern half of the U.S. hangs around
through Tuesday with cold weather through mid week for the Ozarks
region. Another cold front will move through Tuesday night into
Wednesday with no weather associated with it. This feature will
just reinforce the cold weather through Wednesday.

The trough begins to lift out of the area and the upper level flow
becomes more west-northwest by Thursday with a slow moderation of
temperatures for the end of the week. Temperatures will be back to
seasonable levels by Friday and Saturday. The weather looks mainly
dry for the rest of the week into the early part of the weekend.
Models still indicate another system on the horizon to watch in
about 8 to 9 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Expecting VFR conditions through the period. Will see gusty winds
develop through much of the day Sunday with the approach and
pushing through of a shortwave. Lack of any reasonable moisture
will limit cloud cover and precipitation chances.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift today, gusty winds will
occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural cover
fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in the
region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be on
the increase today and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close today),
but the basic message of harder to control outdoor burning
continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather forecast,
special weather statement, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KSGF 070851
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
251 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...One More Mild Day Today and Windy...Turning Much Colder and
Very Windy Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

A strong upper level trough is beginning to dig across the Upper
Midwest this morning and will drag down a strong cold front this
evening. We will see a mixture of sunshine and high and mid level
clouds today. Today will be mild with temperatures climbing in the
middle 50s. Winds will increase out of the west and southwest
today and shift to northwest by this evening with the passage of
the front. Winds gusts today will be approaching 35 mph this
afternoon and evening.

Fire weather conditions will be a concern but not technically
hitting Red Flag criteria for areas of southeast Kansas and
western Missouri. See the fire weather section below for more
details. Cloud cover rapidly moves in tonight and snow flurries or
light snow showers will be possible by early tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0155 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Monday will be very windy and much colder. Northwest winds will
gusts up to 40 to 45 mph at times. A wind advisory is looking more
likely for tomorrow. The high temperature will likely occur
shortly after midnight tonight and remain steady or slowly fall
during the day on Monday with temperatures likely around the lower
30s or upper 20s by the afternoon. Wind chills will be in the
teens to single digits during the day.

There will be enough moisture for flurries likely or bands of
light snow showers especially over central Missouri and the
eastern half of the Ozarks. There may be a light dusting of
accumulation at most but significant impacts are not expected. The
wind and cold will be the main weather story. Wind chills by
Monday night into Tuesday morning will be down to around zero
possible.

The deep trough over the eastern half of the U.S. hangs around
through Tuesday with cold weather through mid week for the Ozarks
region. Another cold front will move through Tuesday night into
Wednesday with no weather associated with it. This feature will
just reinforce the cold weather through Wednesday.

The trough begins to lift out of the area and the upper level flow
becomes more west-northwest by Thursday with a slow moderation of
temperatures for the end of the week. Temperatures will be back to
seasonable levels by Friday and Saturday. The weather looks mainly
dry for the rest of the week into the early part of the weekend.
Models still indicate another system on the horizon to watch in
about 8 to 9 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Expecting VFR conditions through the period. Will see gusty winds
develop through much of the day Sunday with the approach and
pushing through of a shortwave. Lack of any reasonable moisture
will limit cloud cover and precipitation chances.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift today, gusty winds will
occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural cover
fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in the
region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be on
the increase today and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close today),
but the basic message of harder to control outdoor burning
continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather forecast,
special weather statement, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...Griffin




000
FXUS63 KEAX 070519
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1119 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The main forecast concern for this forecast deals with potential
convectively induced snow showers late Sunday night through the day
Monday.

Models show a very strong upper level PV anomaly sliding southeast
through the Northern/ Central Plains and diving into the Southeast
Sunday night into Monday. This will have several distinct impacts on
the weather in the area. First, with the surface front moving through
late Sunday morning or early in the afternoon, deeper mixing will
develop with parcels mixing into winds around 35 kts in the 0.5KM to
1.5KM AGL layer. The winds in this layer increase overnight, as the
PV anomaly is moving through, and lapse rates remain steep into this
layer. So winds will likely be very strong and gusty overnight.
Shortly after sunrise, lapse rates continue to steepen into these
strong winds aloft so there will likely be a period of time Monday
morning where winds are gusting 40 to 45 mph with sustained winds
around 30 mph. This alone would likely need a wind advisory but there
will be another aspect with this passing system which may have a
greater impact.

With the strong PV anomaly moving through, inducing steep low level
lapse rates, there will actually be at times 50+ J/kg surface based
CAPE, even in the pre-dawn hours. While moisture will be limited,
the dendritic growth layer is saturated and is relatively deep.
This indicates that 1) there will be ice crystals present and 2)
snow ratios will be well above our normal 13:1. In fact, snow ratios
will likely reach and possibly exceed 20:1. So while QPF will be
meager, probably less than 0.05" liquid, snow amounts will likely be
around half an inch to up to an inch. But let`s not focus on the
light amounts, rather the showery, convective nature to the snow.
This may result in very brief but blinding snow fall, especially
given the strong winds that will be present. For anyone that
remembers the February 14th, 2010 snow event, the amounts that day
were insignificant. Rather, it was the sudden onset of blinding snow
showers that caused multiple, many vehicle pileups on area
interstates. The setup with for this event looks very similar except
for the timing of the maximum PV moving over which that day was mid
morning/early afternoon. While the max PV for Sunday night and
Monday will occur overnight, comparing forecast soundings between
the two events shows the similarities. Thus, the important messaging
isn`t the snow amounts, but rather that one may drive into an
intense area of snow, a whiteout, and not be able to see. It`s
possible this may happen during the Monday morning commute given the
forecast soundings from across the area. Additionally, the BTV snow
squall parameter, which takes into account low level moisture,
instability, winds and temperatures, reaches very favorable values
Monday morning. This parameter supports the pattern recognition for
this event and only increases confidence.

Regarding potential headlines for this event, it`s quite possible a
winter weather advisory will be needed. Not for the snow amounts but
rather for the potential impacts. For now, since it`s beyond 24
hours away, will hold off any headlines and increase wording in the
HWO briefing packet.

For now, the rest of the forecast looks relatively quiet with no
major systems depicted by the medium range models. While
temperatures the first half of the work week look below normal,
there should be a trend to closer to or above normal for the later
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Winds around 2kft will steadily accelerate to 45-50kts overnight,
which coupled with moderate winds at the surface, will produce a
30kt speed shear until sunrise. Throughout the day, SW winds will
turn NW as a cold front crosses the area Sunday morning. Winds will
steadily increase through the afternoon, gusting to near 30kts during
the afternoon. Gusts should quickly drop off Sunday evening, though
increased sustained winds will continue through the end of the
period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KSGF 070451
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1051 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Generally quiet weather occurred again today. Dry weather and some
modest wind gusts are causing a somewhat elevated fire weather
risk/concern.

An upper level speed max/shortwave over MT will move southeast
into the Midwest Sunday with an initial veering sfc wind shift
moving through the cwfa Sunday. Gusty winds will occur Sunday but
colder air and clouds will lag the wind shift, so expect one more
mild, albeit blustery day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great
Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the
west coast. Colder and windy conditions will develop Sunday night
and continue into Monday. Clouds and some snow flurries/snow
showers are still expected on the west/back side of the main upper
low late Sunday night into Monday as a small scale disturbance
moves southeast through MO. Will maintain a very light (wind
blown) snow accumulation for that time frame but am not expecting
widespread serious travel impacts.

Winds/temperatures will combine to produce wind chills in the
single digits (deg F) Monday night into Tuesday.

The cold air mass/long wave trough will shift off to the east
through midweek with moderating temperatures. A moisture starved
weak shortwave and sfc front/wave will pass through late
Wednesday night or early Thursday with little fanfare. The
general NW upper level flow pattern will keep things dry through
Day 7/Saturday as an upper low remains positioned north of the
Great Lakes and a ridge is maintained over western NOAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Expecting VFR conditions through the period. Will see gusty winds
develop through much of the day Sunday with the approach and
pushing through of a shortwave. Lack of any reasonable moisture
will limit cloud cover and precipitation chances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift on Sunday, gusty winds
will occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural
cover fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in
the region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be
on the increase Sunday and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close on
Sunday), but the basic message of harder to control outdoor
burning continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather
forecast, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KLSX 070039
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
639 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Quiet wx is expected tonight. Southwest winds will begin to increase
slightly after midnight due to the tightening pressure gradient
ahead of an approaching surface trough. Mid/high clouds will also
increase ahead of an approaching disturbance. Overnight lows should
be 7-10 degrees warmer than last night due to a combination of a
warm start to the day, continued low-level WAA, and mid/high clouds.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

A decently strong and digging upper level disturbance will move
thru our region Sunday afternoon and early evening.  Despite the
strength of the lift from the clipper system, due to the initial
rather dry state of the column, it will take some time to
sufficiently saturate it to priduce any threat for pcpn.  It appears
enough comes together by late afternoon, principally for areas near
and south and east of the STL metro area, to justify maintenance of
low PoPs.  Current forecast handles the PoPs and areal extent well
with only minor adjustments made.  This first episode exits during
early Sunday evening.  Pcpn-types will be all rain and probably very
light at that, with minimal QPF.

The real meat of the leading edge of the Arctic air does not arrive
until late Sunday evening and will dominate our region into
Wednesday with below average temps.

Additional upper level disturbances are expected with this initial
arrival of Arctic air on late Sunday evening and overnight as well
as into much of Monday.  This upper level support and general deep
cyclonic flow over our area will be favorable for at least scattered
snow showers during this time, with some lingering into parts of
Monday night.  Due to what should likely be the banded nature of
these snow showers, accums will continue to be hard to nail down
until probably the day of the event.  In areas that receive these
bands, localized snow accums of 1", perhaps even 2", will be
possible.  Most locations, however, will receive just a dusting or
less.  The initial intrusion of this Arctic airmass will also be
accompanied by strong gusty northwest winds, cloudy skies, and
stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA remains strong thru the day.

There remains additional, yet weak, signals for clipper-like systems
late Tuesday and Friday within this otherwise prolonged period of NW
flow aloft, but not worth a mention yet with low confidence on
strength and track.

One thing we can say with more confidence is it does look like the
Friday clipper, whereever it tracks, will correspond with a new
outbreak of Arctic air across our region for next weekend with
continued favorable flow aloft for this.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through KUIN and KCOU by 16z Sunday and STL metro
area by 18z Sunday. But with a lot of dry air to overcome, could
just see some light rain/sprinkles with it, so left mention out of
tafs at this time with just an AC deck moving in. Then on
backside of front, winds to pickup from the west to northwest
gusting to near 30kts by Sunday afternoon. Snow showers possible
but beyond the forecast period for the tafs.

Specifics for KSTL:
Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through STL metro area by 18z Sunday. But with a
lot of dry air to overcome, could just see some light rain/
sprinkles with it, so left mention out of taf at this time with
just an AC deck moving in. Then on backside of front, winds to
pickup from the west to northwest gusting to near 30kts by 21z Sunday
afternoon. Snow showers possible but beyond the forecast period
for the taf.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KLSX 070039
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
639 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Quiet wx is expected tonight. Southwest winds will begin to increase
slightly after midnight due to the tightening pressure gradient
ahead of an approaching surface trough. Mid/high clouds will also
increase ahead of an approaching disturbance. Overnight lows should
be 7-10 degrees warmer than last night due to a combination of a
warm start to the day, continued low-level WAA, and mid/high clouds.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

A decently strong and digging upper level disturbance will move
thru our region Sunday afternoon and early evening.  Despite the
strength of the lift from the clipper system, due to the initial
rather dry state of the column, it will take some time to
sufficiently saturate it to priduce any threat for pcpn.  It appears
enough comes together by late afternoon, principally for areas near
and south and east of the STL metro area, to justify maintenance of
low PoPs.  Current forecast handles the PoPs and areal extent well
with only minor adjustments made.  This first episode exits during
early Sunday evening.  Pcpn-types will be all rain and probably very
light at that, with minimal QPF.

The real meat of the leading edge of the Arctic air does not arrive
until late Sunday evening and will dominate our region into
Wednesday with below average temps.

Additional upper level disturbances are expected with this initial
arrival of Arctic air on late Sunday evening and overnight as well
as into much of Monday.  This upper level support and general deep
cyclonic flow over our area will be favorable for at least scattered
snow showers during this time, with some lingering into parts of
Monday night.  Due to what should likely be the banded nature of
these snow showers, accums will continue to be hard to nail down
until probably the day of the event.  In areas that receive these
bands, localized snow accums of 1", perhaps even 2", will be
possible.  Most locations, however, will receive just a dusting or
less.  The initial intrusion of this Arctic airmass will also be
accompanied by strong gusty northwest winds, cloudy skies, and
stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA remains strong thru the day.

There remains additional, yet weak, signals for clipper-like systems
late Tuesday and Friday within this otherwise prolonged period of NW
flow aloft, but not worth a mention yet with low confidence on
strength and track.

One thing we can say with more confidence is it does look like the
Friday clipper, whereever it tracks, will correspond with a new
outbreak of Arctic air across our region for next weekend with
continued favorable flow aloft for this.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through KUIN and KCOU by 16z Sunday and STL metro
area by 18z Sunday. But with a lot of dry air to overcome, could
just see some light rain/sprinkles with it, so left mention out of
tafs at this time with just an AC deck moving in. Then on
backside of front, winds to pickup from the west to northwest
gusting to near 30kts by Sunday afternoon. Snow showers possible
but beyond the forecast period for the tafs.

Specifics for KSTL:
Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through STL metro area by 18z Sunday. But with a
lot of dry air to overcome, could just see some light rain/
sprinkles with it, so left mention out of taf at this time with
just an AC deck moving in. Then on backside of front, winds to
pickup from the west to northwest gusting to near 30kts by 21z Sunday
afternoon. Snow showers possible but beyond the forecast period
for the taf.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 070039
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
639 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Quiet wx is expected tonight. Southwest winds will begin to increase
slightly after midnight due to the tightening pressure gradient
ahead of an approaching surface trough. Mid/high clouds will also
increase ahead of an approaching disturbance. Overnight lows should
be 7-10 degrees warmer than last night due to a combination of a
warm start to the day, continued low-level WAA, and mid/high clouds.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

A decently strong and digging upper level disturbance will move
thru our region Sunday afternoon and early evening.  Despite the
strength of the lift from the clipper system, due to the initial
rather dry state of the column, it will take some time to
sufficiently saturate it to priduce any threat for pcpn.  It appears
enough comes together by late afternoon, principally for areas near
and south and east of the STL metro area, to justify maintenance of
low PoPs.  Current forecast handles the PoPs and areal extent well
with only minor adjustments made.  This first episode exits during
early Sunday evening.  Pcpn-types will be all rain and probably very
light at that, with minimal QPF.

The real meat of the leading edge of the Arctic air does not arrive
until late Sunday evening and will dominate our region into
Wednesday with below average temps.

Additional upper level disturbances are expected with this initial
arrival of Arctic air on late Sunday evening and overnight as well
as into much of Monday.  This upper level support and general deep
cyclonic flow over our area will be favorable for at least scattered
snow showers during this time, with some lingering into parts of
Monday night.  Due to what should likely be the banded nature of
these snow showers, accums will continue to be hard to nail down
until probably the day of the event.  In areas that receive these
bands, localized snow accums of 1", perhaps even 2", will be
possible.  Most locations, however, will receive just a dusting or
less.  The initial intrusion of this Arctic airmass will also be
accompanied by strong gusty northwest winds, cloudy skies, and
stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA remains strong thru the day.

There remains additional, yet weak, signals for clipper-like systems
late Tuesday and Friday within this otherwise prolonged period of NW
flow aloft, but not worth a mention yet with low confidence on
strength and track.

One thing we can say with more confidence is it does look like the
Friday clipper, whereever it tracks, will correspond with a new
outbreak of Arctic air across our region for next weekend with
continued favorable flow aloft for this.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through KUIN and KCOU by 16z Sunday and STL metro
area by 18z Sunday. But with a lot of dry air to overcome, could
just see some light rain/sprinkles with it, so left mention out of
tafs at this time with just an AC deck moving in. Then on
backside of front, winds to pickup from the west to northwest
gusting to near 30kts by Sunday afternoon. Snow showers possible
but beyond the forecast period for the tafs.

Specifics for KSTL:
Winds to persist from the southwest through tonight ahead of next
weather system. Will see high clouds on the increase. Frontal
boundary to move through STL metro area by 18z Sunday. But with a
lot of dry air to overcome, could just see some light rain/
sprinkles with it, so left mention out of taf at this time with
just an AC deck moving in. Then on backside of front, winds to
pickup from the west to northwest gusting to near 30kts by 21z Sunday
afternoon. Snow showers possible but beyond the forecast period
for the taf.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KEAX 062327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The main forecast concern for this forecast deals with potential
convectively induced snow showers late Sunday night through the day
Monday.

Models show a very strong upper level PV anomaly sliding southeast
through the Northern/ Central Plains and diving into the Southeast
Sunday night into Monday. This will have several distinct impacts on
the weather in the area. First, with the surface front moving through
late Sunday morning or early in the afternoon, deeper mixing will
develop with parcels mixing into winds around 35 kts in the 0.5KM to
1.5KM AGL layer. The winds in this layer increase overnight, as the
PV anomaly is moving through, and lapse rates remain steep into this
layer. So winds will likely be very strong and gusty overnight.
Shortly after sunrise, lapse rates continue to steepen into these
strong winds aloft so there will likely be a period of time Monday
morning where winds are gusting 40 to 45 mph with sustained winds
around 30 mph. This alone would likely need a wind advisory but there
will be another aspect with this passing system which may have a
greater impact.

With the strong PV anomaly moving through, inducing steep low level
lapse rates, there will actually be at times 50+ J/kg surface based
CAPE, even in the pre-dawn hours. While moisture will be limited,
the dendritic growth layer is saturated and is relatively deep.
This indicates that 1) there will be ice crystals present and 2)
snow ratios will be well above our normal 13:1. In fact, snow ratios
will likely reach and possibly exceed 20:1. So while QPF will be
meager, probably less than 0.05" liquid, snow amounts will likely be
around half an inch to up to an inch. But let`s not focus on the
light amounts, rather the showery, convective nature to the snow.
This may result in very brief but blinding snow fall, especially
given the strong winds that will be present. For anyone that
remembers the February 14th, 2010 snow event, the amounts that day
were insignificant. Rather, it was the sudden onset of blinding snow
showers that caused multiple, many vehicle pileups on area
interstates. The setup with for this event looks very similar except
for the timing of the maximum PV moving over which that day was mid
morning/early afternoon. While the max PV for Sunday night and
Monday will occur overnight, comparing forecast soundings between
the two events shows the similarities. Thus, the important messaging
isn`t the snow amounts, but rather that one may drive into an
intense area of snow, a whiteout, and not be able to see. It`s
possible this may happen during the Monday morning commute given the
forecast soundings from across the area. Additionally, the BTV snow
squall parameter, which takes into account low level moisture,
instability, winds and temperatures, reaches very favorable values
Monday morning. This parameter supports the pattern recognition for
this event and only increases confidence.

Regarding potential headlines for this event, it`s quite possible a
winter weather advisory will be needed. Not for the snow amounts but
rather for the potential impacts. For now, since it`s beyond 24
hours away, will hold off any headlines and increase wording in the
HWO briefing packet.

For now, the rest of the forecast looks relatively quiet with no
major systems depicted by the medium range models. While
temperatures the first half of the work week look below normal,
there should be a trend to closer to or above normal for the later
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The main impact with this forecast will be in the form of increasing
winds overnight, persisting well into Sunday afternoon. Southwesterly
surface winds will turn northwesterly as a cold front crosses the
area early Sunday morning. Prior to this transition, winds around
2kft will rapidly accelerate to 45-50kts overnight, which coupled
with more stable winds at the surface will translate to wind speed
shear before surface winds increase behind the frontal passage Sunday
morning. Heading into Sunday afternoon, sustained surface winds of
20kts gusting to around 30kts will make for turbulent departure and
arrival conditions before wind gusts slacken Sunday evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KEAX 062327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The main forecast concern for this forecast deals with potential
convectively induced snow showers late Sunday night through the day
Monday.

Models show a very strong upper level PV anomaly sliding southeast
through the Northern/ Central Plains and diving into the Southeast
Sunday night into Monday. This will have several distinct impacts on
the weather in the area. First, with the surface front moving through
late Sunday morning or early in the afternoon, deeper mixing will
develop with parcels mixing into winds around 35 kts in the 0.5KM to
1.5KM AGL layer. The winds in this layer increase overnight, as the
PV anomaly is moving through, and lapse rates remain steep into this
layer. So winds will likely be very strong and gusty overnight.
Shortly after sunrise, lapse rates continue to steepen into these
strong winds aloft so there will likely be a period of time Monday
morning where winds are gusting 40 to 45 mph with sustained winds
around 30 mph. This alone would likely need a wind advisory but there
will be another aspect with this passing system which may have a
greater impact.

With the strong PV anomaly moving through, inducing steep low level
lapse rates, there will actually be at times 50+ J/kg surface based
CAPE, even in the pre-dawn hours. While moisture will be limited,
the dendritic growth layer is saturated and is relatively deep.
This indicates that 1) there will be ice crystals present and 2)
snow ratios will be well above our normal 13:1. In fact, snow ratios
will likely reach and possibly exceed 20:1. So while QPF will be
meager, probably less than 0.05" liquid, snow amounts will likely be
around half an inch to up to an inch. But let`s not focus on the
light amounts, rather the showery, convective nature to the snow.
This may result in very brief but blinding snow fall, especially
given the strong winds that will be present. For anyone that
remembers the February 14th, 2010 snow event, the amounts that day
were insignificant. Rather, it was the sudden onset of blinding snow
showers that caused multiple, many vehicle pileups on area
interstates. The setup with for this event looks very similar except
for the timing of the maximum PV moving over which that day was mid
morning/early afternoon. While the max PV for Sunday night and
Monday will occur overnight, comparing forecast soundings between
the two events shows the similarities. Thus, the important messaging
isn`t the snow amounts, but rather that one may drive into an
intense area of snow, a whiteout, and not be able to see. It`s
possible this may happen during the Monday morning commute given the
forecast soundings from across the area. Additionally, the BTV snow
squall parameter, which takes into account low level moisture,
instability, winds and temperatures, reaches very favorable values
Monday morning. This parameter supports the pattern recognition for
this event and only increases confidence.

Regarding potential headlines for this event, it`s quite possible a
winter weather advisory will be needed. Not for the snow amounts but
rather for the potential impacts. For now, since it`s beyond 24
hours away, will hold off any headlines and increase wording in the
HWO briefing packet.

For now, the rest of the forecast looks relatively quiet with no
major systems depicted by the medium range models. While
temperatures the first half of the work week look below normal,
there should be a trend to closer to or above normal for the later
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The main impact with this forecast will be in the form of increasing
winds overnight, persisting well into Sunday afternoon. Southwesterly
surface winds will turn northwesterly as a cold front crosses the
area early Sunday morning. Prior to this transition, winds around
2kft will rapidly accelerate to 45-50kts overnight, which coupled
with more stable winds at the surface will translate to wind speed
shear before surface winds increase behind the frontal passage Sunday
morning. Heading into Sunday afternoon, sustained surface winds of
20kts gusting to around 30kts will make for turbulent departure and
arrival conditions before wind gusts slacken Sunday evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh



000
FXUS63 KEAX 062327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The main forecast concern for this forecast deals with potential
convectively induced snow showers late Sunday night through the day
Monday.

Models show a very strong upper level PV anomaly sliding southeast
through the Northern/ Central Plains and diving into the Southeast
Sunday night into Monday. This will have several distinct impacts on
the weather in the area. First, with the surface front moving through
late Sunday morning or early in the afternoon, deeper mixing will
develop with parcels mixing into winds around 35 kts in the 0.5KM to
1.5KM AGL layer. The winds in this layer increase overnight, as the
PV anomaly is moving through, and lapse rates remain steep into this
layer. So winds will likely be very strong and gusty overnight.
Shortly after sunrise, lapse rates continue to steepen into these
strong winds aloft so there will likely be a period of time Monday
morning where winds are gusting 40 to 45 mph with sustained winds
around 30 mph. This alone would likely need a wind advisory but there
will be another aspect with this passing system which may have a
greater impact.

With the strong PV anomaly moving through, inducing steep low level
lapse rates, there will actually be at times 50+ J/kg surface based
CAPE, even in the pre-dawn hours. While moisture will be limited,
the dendritic growth layer is saturated and is relatively deep.
This indicates that 1) there will be ice crystals present and 2)
snow ratios will be well above our normal 13:1. In fact, snow ratios
will likely reach and possibly exceed 20:1. So while QPF will be
meager, probably less than 0.05" liquid, snow amounts will likely be
around half an inch to up to an inch. But let`s not focus on the
light amounts, rather the showery, convective nature to the snow.
This may result in very brief but blinding snow fall, especially
given the strong winds that will be present. For anyone that
remembers the February 14th, 2010 snow event, the amounts that day
were insignificant. Rather, it was the sudden onset of blinding snow
showers that caused multiple, many vehicle pileups on area
interstates. The setup with for this event looks very similar except
for the timing of the maximum PV moving over which that day was mid
morning/early afternoon. While the max PV for Sunday night and
Monday will occur overnight, comparing forecast soundings between
the two events shows the similarities. Thus, the important messaging
isn`t the snow amounts, but rather that one may drive into an
intense area of snow, a whiteout, and not be able to see. It`s
possible this may happen during the Monday morning commute given the
forecast soundings from across the area. Additionally, the BTV snow
squall parameter, which takes into account low level moisture,
instability, winds and temperatures, reaches very favorable values
Monday morning. This parameter supports the pattern recognition for
this event and only increases confidence.

Regarding potential headlines for this event, it`s quite possible a
winter weather advisory will be needed. Not for the snow amounts but
rather for the potential impacts. For now, since it`s beyond 24
hours away, will hold off any headlines and increase wording in the
HWO briefing packet.

For now, the rest of the forecast looks relatively quiet with no
major systems depicted by the medium range models. While
temperatures the first half of the work week look below normal,
there should be a trend to closer to or above normal for the later
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The main impact with this forecast will be in the form of increasing
winds overnight, persisting well into Sunday afternoon. Southwesterly
surface winds will turn northwesterly as a cold front crosses the
area early Sunday morning. Prior to this transition, winds around
2kft will rapidly accelerate to 45-50kts overnight, which coupled
with more stable winds at the surface will translate to wind speed
shear before surface winds increase behind the frontal passage Sunday
morning. Heading into Sunday afternoon, sustained surface winds of
20kts gusting to around 30kts will make for turbulent departure and
arrival conditions before wind gusts slacken Sunday evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh




000
FXUS63 KSGF 062315
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Generally quiet weather occurred again today. Dry weather and some
modest wind gusts are causing a somewhat elevated fire weather
risk/concern.

An upper level speed max/shortwave over MT will move southeast
into the Midwest Sunday with an initial veering sfc wind shift
moving through the cwfa Sunday. Gusty winds will occur Sunday but
colder air and clouds will lag the wind shift, so expect one more
mild, albeit blustery day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great
Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the
west coast. Colder and windy conditions will develop Sunday night
and continue into Monday. Clouds and some snow flurries/snow
showers are still expected on the west/back side of the main upper
low late Sunday night into Monday as a small scale disturbance
moves southeast through MO. Will maintain a very light (wind
blown) snow accumulation for that time frame but am not expecting
widespread serious travel impacts.

Winds/temperatures will combine to produce wind chills in the
single digits (deg F) Monday night into Tuesday.

The cold air mass/long wave trough will shift off to the east
through midweek with moderating temperatures. A moisture starved
weak shortwave and sfc front/wave will pass through late
Wednesday night or early Thursday with little fanfare. The
general NW upper level flow pattern will keep things dry through
Day 7/Saturday as an upper low remains positioned north of the
Great Lakes and a ridge is maintained over western NOAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 0513 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A tight pressure gradient will set up across the area from tonight
into Sunday as another quick moving shortwave approaches and moves
through the area. Again, this system should move through dry with
dry low levels in the atmosphere. We are also expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but expecting some gusty surface
winds on Sunday, out of the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift on Sunday, gusty winds
will occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural
cover fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in
the region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be
on the increase Sunday and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close on
Sunday), but the basic message of harder to control outdoor
burning continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather
forecast, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 062315
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Generally quiet weather occurred again today. Dry weather and some
modest wind gusts are causing a somewhat elevated fire weather
risk/concern.

An upper level speed max/shortwave over MT will move southeast
into the Midwest Sunday with an initial veering sfc wind shift
moving through the cwfa Sunday. Gusty winds will occur Sunday but
colder air and clouds will lag the wind shift, so expect one more
mild, albeit blustery day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great
Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the
west coast. Colder and windy conditions will develop Sunday night
and continue into Monday. Clouds and some snow flurries/snow
showers are still expected on the west/back side of the main upper
low late Sunday night into Monday as a small scale disturbance
moves southeast through MO. Will maintain a very light (wind
blown) snow accumulation for that time frame but am not expecting
widespread serious travel impacts.

Winds/temperatures will combine to produce wind chills in the
single digits (deg F) Monday night into Tuesday.

The cold air mass/long wave trough will shift off to the east
through midweek with moderating temperatures. A moisture starved
weak shortwave and sfc front/wave will pass through late
Wednesday night or early Thursday with little fanfare. The
general NW upper level flow pattern will keep things dry through
Day 7/Saturday as an upper low remains positioned north of the
Great Lakes and a ridge is maintained over western NOAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 0513 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A tight pressure gradient will set up across the area from tonight
into Sunday as another quick moving shortwave approaches and moves
through the area. Again, this system should move through dry with
dry low levels in the atmosphere. We are also expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but expecting some gusty surface
winds on Sunday, out of the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift on Sunday, gusty winds
will occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural
cover fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in
the region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be
on the increase Sunday and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close on
Sunday), but the basic message of harder to control outdoor
burning continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather
forecast, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 062315
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Generally quiet weather occurred again today. Dry weather and some
modest wind gusts are causing a somewhat elevated fire weather
risk/concern.

An upper level speed max/shortwave over MT will move southeast
into the Midwest Sunday with an initial veering sfc wind shift
moving through the cwfa Sunday. Gusty winds will occur Sunday but
colder air and clouds will lag the wind shift, so expect one more
mild, albeit blustery day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great
Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the
west coast. Colder and windy conditions will develop Sunday night
and continue into Monday. Clouds and some snow flurries/snow
showers are still expected on the west/back side of the main upper
low late Sunday night into Monday as a small scale disturbance
moves southeast through MO. Will maintain a very light (wind
blown) snow accumulation for that time frame but am not expecting
widespread serious travel impacts.

Winds/temperatures will combine to produce wind chills in the
single digits (deg F) Monday night into Tuesday.

The cold air mass/long wave trough will shift off to the east
through midweek with moderating temperatures. A moisture starved
weak shortwave and sfc front/wave will pass through late
Wednesday night or early Thursday with little fanfare. The
general NW upper level flow pattern will keep things dry through
Day 7/Saturday as an upper low remains positioned north of the
Great Lakes and a ridge is maintained over western NOAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 0513 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A tight pressure gradient will set up across the area from tonight
into Sunday as another quick moving shortwave approaches and moves
through the area. Again, this system should move through dry with
dry low levels in the atmosphere. We are also expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but expecting some gusty surface
winds on Sunday, out of the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift on Sunday, gusty winds
will occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural
cover fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in
the region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be
on the increase Sunday and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close on
Sunday), but the basic message of harder to control outdoor
burning continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather
forecast, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 062315
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Generally quiet weather occurred again today. Dry weather and some
modest wind gusts are causing a somewhat elevated fire weather
risk/concern.

An upper level speed max/shortwave over MT will move southeast
into the Midwest Sunday with an initial veering sfc wind shift
moving through the cwfa Sunday. Gusty winds will occur Sunday but
colder air and clouds will lag the wind shift, so expect one more
mild, albeit blustery day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great
Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the
west coast. Colder and windy conditions will develop Sunday night
and continue into Monday. Clouds and some snow flurries/snow
showers are still expected on the west/back side of the main upper
low late Sunday night into Monday as a small scale disturbance
moves southeast through MO. Will maintain a very light (wind
blown) snow accumulation for that time frame but am not expecting
widespread serious travel impacts.

Winds/temperatures will combine to produce wind chills in the
single digits (deg F) Monday night into Tuesday.

The cold air mass/long wave trough will shift off to the east
through midweek with moderating temperatures. A moisture starved
weak shortwave and sfc front/wave will pass through late
Wednesday night or early Thursday with little fanfare. The
general NW upper level flow pattern will keep things dry through
Day 7/Saturday as an upper low remains positioned north of the
Great Lakes and a ridge is maintained over western NOAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 0513 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A tight pressure gradient will set up across the area from tonight
into Sunday as another quick moving shortwave approaches and moves
through the area. Again, this system should move through dry with
dry low levels in the atmosphere. We are also expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but expecting some gusty surface
winds on Sunday, out of the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift on Sunday, gusty winds
will occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural
cover fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in
the region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be
on the increase Sunday and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close on
Sunday), but the basic message of harder to control outdoor
burning continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather
forecast, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 062315
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Generally quiet weather occurred again today. Dry weather and some
modest wind gusts are causing a somewhat elevated fire weather
risk/concern.

An upper level speed max/shortwave over MT will move southeast
into the Midwest Sunday with an initial veering sfc wind shift
moving through the cwfa Sunday. Gusty winds will occur Sunday but
colder air and clouds will lag the wind shift, so expect one more
mild, albeit blustery day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great
Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the
west coast. Colder and windy conditions will develop Sunday night
and continue into Monday. Clouds and some snow flurries/snow
showers are still expected on the west/back side of the main upper
low late Sunday night into Monday as a small scale disturbance
moves southeast through MO. Will maintain a very light (wind
blown) snow accumulation for that time frame but am not expecting
widespread serious travel impacts.

Winds/temperatures will combine to produce wind chills in the
single digits (deg F) Monday night into Tuesday.

The cold air mass/long wave trough will shift off to the east
through midweek with moderating temperatures. A moisture starved
weak shortwave and sfc front/wave will pass through late
Wednesday night or early Thursday with little fanfare. The
general NW upper level flow pattern will keep things dry through
Day 7/Saturday as an upper low remains positioned north of the
Great Lakes and a ridge is maintained over western NOAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 0513 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A tight pressure gradient will set up across the area from tonight
into Sunday as another quick moving shortwave approaches and moves
through the area. Again, this system should move through dry with
dry low levels in the atmosphere. We are also expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but expecting some gusty surface
winds on Sunday, out of the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift on Sunday, gusty winds
will occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural
cover fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in
the region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be
on the increase Sunday and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close on
Sunday), but the basic message of harder to control outdoor
burning continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather
forecast, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 062145
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Generally quiet weather occurred again today. Dry weather and some
modest wind gusts are causing a somewhat elevated fire weather
risk/concern.

An upper level speed max/shortwave over MT will move southeast
into the Midwest Sunday with an initial veering sfc wind shift
moving through the cwfa Sunday. Gusty winds will occur Sunday but
colder air and clouds will lag the wind shift, so expect one more
mild, albeit blustery day.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great
Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the
west coast. Colder and windy conditions will develop Sunday night
and continue into Monday. Clouds and some snow flurries/snow
showers are still expected on the west/back side of the main upper
low late Sunday night into Monday as a small scale disturbance
moves southeast through MO. Will maintain a very light (wind
blown) snow accumulation for that time frame but am not expecting
widespread serious travel impacts.

Winds/temperatures will combine to produce wind chills in the
single digits (deg F) Monday night into Tuesday.

The cold air mass/long wave trough will shift off to the east
through midweek with moderating temperatures. A moisture starved
weak shortwave and sfc front/wave will pass through late
Wednesday night or early Thursday with little fanfare. The
general NW upper level flow pattern will keep things dry through
Day 7/Saturday as an upper low remains positioned north of the
Great Lakes and a ridge is maintained over western NOAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A cold
front will approach the taf sites late in the taf period with
increasing winds. A dry air mass will limit chances for lower
clouds or precipitation through midday Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift on Sunday, gusty winds
will occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural
cover fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in
the region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be
on the increase Sunday and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close on
Sunday), but the basic message of harder to control outdoor
burning continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather
forecast, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA



000
FXUS63 KSGF 062145
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Generally quiet weather occurred again today. Dry weather and some
modest wind gusts are causing a somewhat elevated fire weather
risk/concern.

An upper level speed max/shortwave over MT will move southeast
into the Midwest Sunday with an initial veering sfc wind shift
moving through the cwfa Sunday. Gusty winds will occur Sunday but
colder air and clouds will lag the wind shift, so expect one more
mild, albeit blustery day.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great
Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the
west coast. Colder and windy conditions will develop Sunday night
and continue into Monday. Clouds and some snow flurries/snow
showers are still expected on the west/back side of the main upper
low late Sunday night into Monday as a small scale disturbance
moves southeast through MO. Will maintain a very light (wind
blown) snow accumulation for that time frame but am not expecting
widespread serious travel impacts.

Winds/temperatures will combine to produce wind chills in the
single digits (deg F) Monday night into Tuesday.

The cold air mass/long wave trough will shift off to the east
through midweek with moderating temperatures. A moisture starved
weak shortwave and sfc front/wave will pass through late
Wednesday night or early Thursday with little fanfare. The
general NW upper level flow pattern will keep things dry through
Day 7/Saturday as an upper low remains positioned north of the
Great Lakes and a ridge is maintained over western NOAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A cold
front will approach the taf sites late in the taf period with
increasing winds. A dry air mass will limit chances for lower
clouds or precipitation through midday Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift on Sunday, gusty winds
will occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural
cover fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in
the region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be
on the increase Sunday and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close on
Sunday), but the basic message of harder to control outdoor
burning continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather
forecast, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 062145
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
345 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Generally quiet weather occurred again today. Dry weather and some
modest wind gusts are causing a somewhat elevated fire weather
risk/concern.

An upper level speed max/shortwave over MT will move southeast
into the Midwest Sunday with an initial veering sfc wind shift
moving through the cwfa Sunday. Gusty winds will occur Sunday but
colder air and clouds will lag the wind shift, so expect one more
mild, albeit blustery day.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

An upper level trough/closed low will develop over the Great
Lakes region while a large scale upper ridge builds along the
west coast. Colder and windy conditions will develop Sunday night
and continue into Monday. Clouds and some snow flurries/snow
showers are still expected on the west/back side of the main upper
low late Sunday night into Monday as a small scale disturbance
moves southeast through MO. Will maintain a very light (wind
blown) snow accumulation for that time frame but am not expecting
widespread serious travel impacts.

Winds/temperatures will combine to produce wind chills in the
single digits (deg F) Monday night into Tuesday.

The cold air mass/long wave trough will shift off to the east
through midweek with moderating temperatures. A moisture starved
weak shortwave and sfc front/wave will pass through late
Wednesday night or early Thursday with little fanfare. The
general NW upper level flow pattern will keep things dry through
Day 7/Saturday as an upper low remains positioned north of the
Great Lakes and a ridge is maintained over western NOAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A cold
front will approach the taf sites late in the taf period with
increasing winds. A dry air mass will limit chances for lower
clouds or precipitation through midday Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 0300 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

With the approaching front and wind shift on Sunday, gusty winds
will occur with continued dry vegetation. Ignition of natural
cover fires is easy in the dry brush with a few fires reported in
the region recently. The fire spread component will definitely be
on the increase Sunday and continue Monday and Tuesday with higher
winds. RH values don`t make it to Red Flag criteria (close on
Sunday), but the basic message of harder to control outdoor
burning continues to be stressed in the HWO, fire weather
forecast, and social media.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA




000
FXUS63 KEAX 062105
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
305 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The main forecast concern for this forecast deals with potential
convectively induced snow showers late Sunday night through the day
Monday.

Models show a very strong upper level PV anomaly sliding southeast
through the Northern/ Central Plains and diving into the Southeast
Sunday night into Monday. This will have several distinct impacts on
the weather in the area. First, with the surface front moving through
late Sunday morning or early in the afternoon, deeper mixing will
develop with parcels mixing into winds around 35 kts in the 0.5KM to
1.5KM AGL layer. The winds in this layer increase overnight, as the
PV anomaly is moving through, and lapse rates remain steep into this
layer. So winds will likely be very strong and gusty overnight.
Shortly after sunrise, lapse rates continue to steepen into these
strong winds aloft so there will likely be a period of time Monday
morning where winds are gusting 40 to 45 mph with sustained winds
around 30 mph. This alone would likely need a wind advisory but there
will be another aspect with this passing system which may have a
greater impact.

With the strong PV anomaly moving through, inducing steep low level
lapse rates, there will actually be at times 50+ J/kg surface based
CAPE, even in the pre-dawn hours. While moisture will be limited,
the dendritic growth layer is saturated and is relatively deep.
This indicates that 1) there will be ice crystals present and 2)
snow ratios will be well above our normal 13:1. In fact, snow ratios
will likely reach and possibly exceed 20:1. So while QPF will be
meager, probably less than 0.05" liquid, snow amounts will likely be
around half an inch to up to an inch. But let`s not focus on the
light amounts, rather the showery, convective nature to the snow.
This may result in very brief but blinding snow fall, especially
given the strong winds that will be present. For anyone that
remembers the February 14th, 2010 snow event, the amounts that day
were insignificant. Rather, it was the sudden onset of blinding snow
showers that caused multiple, many vehicle pileups on area
interstates. The setup with for this event looks very similar except
for the timing of the maximum PV moving over which that day was mid
morning/early afternoon. While the max PV for Sunday night and
Monday will occur overnight, comparing forecast soundings between
the two events shows the similarities. Thus, the important messaging
isn`t the snow amounts, but rather that one may drive into an
intense area of snow, a whiteout, and not be able to see. It`s
possible this may happen during the Monday morning commute given the
forecast soundings from across the area. Additionally, the BTV snow
squall parameter, which takes into account low level moisture,
instability, winds and temperatures, reaches very favorable values
Monday morning. This parameter supports the pattern recognition for
this event and only increases confidence.

Regarding potential headlines for this event, it`s quite possible a
winter weather advisory will be needed. Not for the snow amounts but
rather for the potential impacts. For now, since it`s beyond 24
hours away, will hold off any headlines and increase wording in the
HWO briefing packet.

For now, the rest of the forecast looks relatively quiet with no
major systems depicted by the medium range models. While
temperatures the first half of the work week look below normal,
there should be a trend to closer to or above normal for the later
half of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast with the only
significant weather being a wind shift and increasing winds behind
that wind shift late in the forecast. For now, it looks like the
front will move through the terminals in the 14Z to 17Z window. Winds
will shift to the west to northwest and increase to the 15 to 20 kt
range behind the front. It will also become quite gusty behind the
front with gusts potentially in the 25 to 30 kt range.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KLSX 062025
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
225 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Quiet wx is expected tonight. Southwest winds will begin to increase
slightly after midnight due to the tightening pressure gradient
ahead of an approaching surface trough. Mid/high clouds will also
increase ahead of an approaching disturbance. Overnight lows should
be 7-10 degrees warmer than last night due to a combination of a
warm start to the day, continued low-level WAA, and mid/high clouds.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

A decently strong and digging upper level disturbance will move
thru our region Sunday afternoon and early evening.  Despite the
strength of the lift from the clipper system, due to the initial
rather dry state of the column, it will take some time to
sufficiently saturate it to priduce any threat for pcpn.  It appears
enough comes together by late afternoon, principally for areas near
and south and east of the STL metro area, to justify maintenance of
low PoPs.  Current forecast handles the PoPs and areal extent well
with only minor adjustments made.  This first episode exits during
early Sunday evening.  Pcpn-types will be all rain and probably very
light at that, with minimal QPF.

The real meat of the leading edge of the Arctic air does not arrive
until late Sunday evening and will dominate our region into
Wednesday with below average temps.

Additional upper level disturbances are expected with this initial
arrival of Arctic air on late Sunday evening and overnight as well
as into much of Monday.  This upper level support and general deep
cyclonic flow over our area will be favorable for at least scattered
snow showers during this time, with some lingering into parts of
Monday night.  Due to what should likely be the banded nature of
these snow showers, accums will continue to be hard to nail down
until probably the day of the event.  In areas that receive these
bands, localized snow accums of 1", perhaps even 2", will be
possible.  Most locations, however, will receive just a dusting or
less.  The initial intrusion of this Arctic airmass will also be
accompanied by strong gusty northwest winds, cloudy skies, and
stagnant daytime temps on Monday as CAA remains strong thru the day.

There remains additional, yet weak, signals for clipper-like systems
late Tuesday and Friday within this otherwise prolonged period of NW
flow aloft, but not worth a mention yet with low confidence on
strength and track.

One thing we can say with more confidence is it does look like the
Friday clipper, whereever it tracks, will correspond with a new
outbreak of Arctic air across our region for next weekend with
continued favorable flow aloft for this.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

VFR through the period with increasing mid/high clouds. Winds will
back slightly overnight then turn westerly tomorrow behind a cold
front.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     37  55  31  31 /   0  20  20  50
Quincy          33  49  23  27 /   0  10  50  50
Columbia        34  52  26  28 /   0  10  30  50
Jefferson City  34  54  28  32 /   0  10  30  40
Salem           35  51  31  32 /   0  20  20  50
Farmington      35  54  30  33 /   0  20  20  50

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 061810
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

The elongated and positively tilted upper trof stretching from
the Great Lakes into the southern Plains is producing a good deal
of cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles near the Lake of the
Ozarks. This upper trof and the weak surface trof/reflection will
move to the east of the CWA by midday. Clouds will diminish in its
wake while surface winds become westerly and low level warm
advection ensues. Temperatures should see a nice climb over
yesterday`s numbers with highs today around 10 degrees above
average. The low level warm advection regime will persist tonight
with clouds again on the increase well in advance of the next
system.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winter returns.  Big changes ensue this period as a highly
amplified pattern develops Sunday night into Monday, featuring a
strong ridge/block along the west coast and broad deep trof over
the eastern 2/3rds of the Nation. This pattern will unfold as a
upper low/trof digs southeastward from the northern Plains/Upper
MS Valley Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds and low level warm
advection will continue the first part of the day on Sunday
resulting in another day of above average temps. However the lead
short wave and height falls will move into the mid MS Valley
during the afternoon sending the first cold front through the area
by early evening. There could be some spotty light showers in the
afternoon with the short wave producing weak large forcing and
ascent from far east central MO into IL. The real surge of cold
air comes in on Sunday night as the upper low/trof continues to
dig southeast and sends another cold front through the area
accompanied by increasing and gusty northwest winds and strong
CAA. Vorticity maxima within the cyclonic flow aloft will help
produce areas/small bands of light snow. Monday will feel like a
good old winter day with gusty northwest winds and much colder air
producing blustry conditions. Areas/small bands of light snow/snow
showers will continue to impact areas on Monday, and some
locations through the duration could see small accumulations
ranging from a dusting up to an inch.

The deep eastern trof will continue to dominate through midweek
resulting in below average temperatures. The amplitude of the
upper trof will diminish during the later half of the week with
broader cyclonic northwest flow aloft. We will have to keep a wary
eye on fast-moving disturbances within this flow. The models show
one such clipper system in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame, however can`t agree on location and impacts and this also
varies with each successive model run. It appears tempertures will
approach normal levels by week`s end, however the ECMWF has
another northwest flow disturbance on Friday worth watching.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

VFR through the period with increasing mid/high clouds. Winds will
back slightly overnight then turn westerly tomorrow behind a cold
front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 061810
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

The elongated and positively tilted upper trof stretching from
the Great Lakes into the southern Plains is producing a good deal
of cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles near the Lake of the
Ozarks. This upper trof and the weak surface trof/reflection will
move to the east of the CWA by midday. Clouds will diminish in its
wake while surface winds become westerly and low level warm
advection ensues. Temperatures should see a nice climb over
yesterday`s numbers with highs today around 10 degrees above
average. The low level warm advection regime will persist tonight
with clouds again on the increase well in advance of the next
system.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winter returns.  Big changes ensue this period as a highly
amplified pattern develops Sunday night into Monday, featuring a
strong ridge/block along the west coast and broad deep trof over
the eastern 2/3rds of the Nation. This pattern will unfold as a
upper low/trof digs southeastward from the northern Plains/Upper
MS Valley Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds and low level warm
advection will continue the first part of the day on Sunday
resulting in another day of above average temps. However the lead
short wave and height falls will move into the mid MS Valley
during the afternoon sending the first cold front through the area
by early evening. There could be some spotty light showers in the
afternoon with the short wave producing weak large forcing and
ascent from far east central MO into IL. The real surge of cold
air comes in on Sunday night as the upper low/trof continues to
dig southeast and sends another cold front through the area
accompanied by increasing and gusty northwest winds and strong
CAA. Vorticity maxima within the cyclonic flow aloft will help
produce areas/small bands of light snow. Monday will feel like a
good old winter day with gusty northwest winds and much colder air
producing blustry conditions. Areas/small bands of light snow/snow
showers will continue to impact areas on Monday, and some
locations through the duration could see small accumulations
ranging from a dusting up to an inch.

The deep eastern trof will continue to dominate through midweek
resulting in below average temperatures. The amplitude of the
upper trof will diminish during the later half of the week with
broader cyclonic northwest flow aloft. We will have to keep a wary
eye on fast-moving disturbances within this flow. The models show
one such clipper system in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame, however can`t agree on location and impacts and this also
varies with each successive model run. It appears tempertures will
approach normal levels by week`s end, however the ECMWF has
another northwest flow disturbance on Friday worth watching.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

VFR through the period with increasing mid/high clouds. Winds will
back slightly overnight then turn westerly tomorrow behind a cold
front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 061810
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1210 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

The elongated and positively tilted upper trof stretching from
the Great Lakes into the southern Plains is producing a good deal
of cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles near the Lake of the
Ozarks. This upper trof and the weak surface trof/reflection will
move to the east of the CWA by midday. Clouds will diminish in its
wake while surface winds become westerly and low level warm
advection ensues. Temperatures should see a nice climb over
yesterday`s numbers with highs today around 10 degrees above
average. The low level warm advection regime will persist tonight
with clouds again on the increase well in advance of the next
system.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winter returns.  Big changes ensue this period as a highly
amplified pattern develops Sunday night into Monday, featuring a
strong ridge/block along the west coast and broad deep trof over
the eastern 2/3rds of the Nation. This pattern will unfold as a
upper low/trof digs southeastward from the northern Plains/Upper
MS Valley Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds and low level warm
advection will continue the first part of the day on Sunday
resulting in another day of above average temps. However the lead
short wave and height falls will move into the mid MS Valley
during the afternoon sending the first cold front through the area
by early evening. There could be some spotty light showers in the
afternoon with the short wave producing weak large forcing and
ascent from far east central MO into IL. The real surge of cold
air comes in on Sunday night as the upper low/trof continues to
dig southeast and sends another cold front through the area
accompanied by increasing and gusty northwest winds and strong
CAA. Vorticity maxima within the cyclonic flow aloft will help
produce areas/small bands of light snow. Monday will feel like a
good old winter day with gusty northwest winds and much colder air
producing blustry conditions. Areas/small bands of light snow/snow
showers will continue to impact areas on Monday, and some
locations through the duration could see small accumulations
ranging from a dusting up to an inch.

The deep eastern trof will continue to dominate through midweek
resulting in below average temperatures. The amplitude of the
upper trof will diminish during the later half of the week with
broader cyclonic northwest flow aloft. We will have to keep a wary
eye on fast-moving disturbances within this flow. The models show
one such clipper system in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame, however can`t agree on location and impacts and this also
varies with each successive model run. It appears tempertures will
approach normal levels by week`s end, however the ECMWF has
another northwest flow disturbance on Friday worth watching.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

VFR through the period with increasing mid/high clouds. Winds will
back slightly overnight then turn westerly tomorrow behind a cold
front.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



000
FXUS63 KSGF 061802
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Mostly quiet weather across the area this morning. An upper level
wave is currently moving southeastward across the Red River Valley
region. This feature is bring a few high and mid level clouds
across the area this morning. Radar shows a few sprinkles or
flurries possible but doubt any of this is reaching the ground.

Scattered clouds this morning will give way to plenty of sunshine
this afternoon. Light southwesterly breezes will return today and
temperatures will warm into the lower 50s which is not too bad for
early February standards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A strong deep trough will begin to develop across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Sunday into Monday. A strong
cold front will approach the area late Sunday. Winds will become
more breezy during the day on Sunday from the West-Southwest.
Sunday will be mild temperatures in the middle 50s.

The strong cold front moves through Sunday evening and night.
Winds will become Northwesterly and gusty. The high temperature
for Monday may actually occur around midnight with a steady or
slow falling temperatures during the day on Monday. Model
guidance indicates winds sustained around 30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph likely. A wind advisory may be needed for Monday.

Monday will be a cold, very windy, and cloudy day with off and on
snow flurries or light snow showers possible. Models hint at this
especially on the Ozark Plateau and across the northeastern half
of the area. There is a low potential for a trace to light dusting
possible but impacts are not expected at this time. Wind chills
Monday into Monday night will be in the teens to lower single
digits by Tuesday morning.

The flow flattens out by middle and end of next week with a
moderation of temperatures. Seasonable weather returns by mid week
with slightly above average temperatures by end of the week. No
significant precip chances through the next 7 days. Something to
watch in the long term...some long range models indicate a
potential for a storm system to affect the area in about 8 to 9
days or late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A cold
front will approach the taf sites late in the taf period with
increasing winds. A dry air mass will limit chances for lower
clouds or precipitation through midday Sunday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA




000
FXUS63 KSGF 061802
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Mostly quiet weather across the area this morning. An upper level
wave is currently moving southeastward across the Red River Valley
region. This feature is bring a few high and mid level clouds
across the area this morning. Radar shows a few sprinkles or
flurries possible but doubt any of this is reaching the ground.

Scattered clouds this morning will give way to plenty of sunshine
this afternoon. Light southwesterly breezes will return today and
temperatures will warm into the lower 50s which is not too bad for
early February standards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A strong deep trough will begin to develop across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Sunday into Monday. A strong
cold front will approach the area late Sunday. Winds will become
more breezy during the day on Sunday from the West-Southwest.
Sunday will be mild temperatures in the middle 50s.

The strong cold front moves through Sunday evening and night.
Winds will become Northwesterly and gusty. The high temperature
for Monday may actually occur around midnight with a steady or
slow falling temperatures during the day on Monday. Model
guidance indicates winds sustained around 30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph likely. A wind advisory may be needed for Monday.

Monday will be a cold, very windy, and cloudy day with off and on
snow flurries or light snow showers possible. Models hint at this
especially on the Ozark Plateau and across the northeastern half
of the area. There is a low potential for a trace to light dusting
possible but impacts are not expected at this time. Wind chills
Monday into Monday night will be in the teens to lower single
digits by Tuesday morning.

The flow flattens out by middle and end of next week with a
moderation of temperatures. Seasonable weather returns by mid week
with slightly above average temperatures by end of the week. No
significant precip chances through the next 7 days. Something to
watch in the long term...some long range models indicate a
potential for a storm system to affect the area in about 8 to 9
days or late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A cold
front will approach the taf sites late in the taf period with
increasing winds. A dry air mass will limit chances for lower
clouds or precipitation through midday Sunday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA



000
FXUS63 KEAX 061801
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1201 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Shortwave trough is departing the CWA with the only notable effects
being a few light echoes on the radar over west central Missouri.
Shortwave ridging moves into the area today into Sunday with
generally mild temperatures with afternoon readings in the middle
40s to near 50. Next upper disturbance quickly arrives on Sunday and
evolves/amplifies into a large upper trough over the central and
eastern US. Increasing ascent combined with limited moisture should
allow for scattered flurries or light snow Sunday night into Monday,
mainly across portions of Missouri. With much colder air advecting
into the area, vertical temperature profile will support mainly
snow. Little to no accumulation is expected, with the highest
potential accumulations regulated to northeast Missouri where a few
tenths of an inch are possible. Otherwise, with a strengthening
pressure gradient, gusty northwest winds will be the story with
sustained wind speeds of 15-20 kts common Sunday afternoon. Winds
will be slightly stronger on Monday afternoon, and with the colder
airmass in place, the stage is set for a raw-feeling day with highs
only topping out in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will
gradually moderate into middle to late next work week, reaching near
normal levels. The extended forecast through Tuesday through Saturday
looks dry at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast with the only
significant weather being a wind shift and increasing winds behind
that wind shift late in the forecast. For now, it looks like the
front will move through the terminals in the 14Z to 17Z window. Winds
will shift to the west to northwest and increase to the 15 to 20 kt
range behind the front. It will also become quite gusty behind the
front with gusts potentially in the 25 to 30 kt range.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 061801
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1201 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Shortwave trough is departing the CWA with the only notable effects
being a few light echoes on the radar over west central Missouri.
Shortwave ridging moves into the area today into Sunday with
generally mild temperatures with afternoon readings in the middle
40s to near 50. Next upper disturbance quickly arrives on Sunday and
evolves/amplifies into a large upper trough over the central and
eastern US. Increasing ascent combined with limited moisture should
allow for scattered flurries or light snow Sunday night into Monday,
mainly across portions of Missouri. With much colder air advecting
into the area, vertical temperature profile will support mainly
snow. Little to no accumulation is expected, with the highest
potential accumulations regulated to northeast Missouri where a few
tenths of an inch are possible. Otherwise, with a strengthening
pressure gradient, gusty northwest winds will be the story with
sustained wind speeds of 15-20 kts common Sunday afternoon. Winds
will be slightly stronger on Monday afternoon, and with the colder
airmass in place, the stage is set for a raw-feeling day with highs
only topping out in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will
gradually moderate into middle to late next work week, reaching near
normal levels. The extended forecast through Tuesday through Saturday
looks dry at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast with the only
significant weather being a wind shift and increasing winds behind
that wind shift late in the forecast. For now, it looks like the
front will move through the terminals in the 14Z to 17Z window. Winds
will shift to the west to northwest and increase to the 15 to 20 kt
range behind the front. It will also become quite gusty behind the
front with gusts potentially in the 25 to 30 kt range.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...CDB



000
FXUS63 KEAX 061801
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1201 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Shortwave trough is departing the CWA with the only notable effects
being a few light echoes on the radar over west central Missouri.
Shortwave ridging moves into the area today into Sunday with
generally mild temperatures with afternoon readings in the middle
40s to near 50. Next upper disturbance quickly arrives on Sunday and
evolves/amplifies into a large upper trough over the central and
eastern US. Increasing ascent combined with limited moisture should
allow for scattered flurries or light snow Sunday night into Monday,
mainly across portions of Missouri. With much colder air advecting
into the area, vertical temperature profile will support mainly
snow. Little to no accumulation is expected, with the highest
potential accumulations regulated to northeast Missouri where a few
tenths of an inch are possible. Otherwise, with a strengthening
pressure gradient, gusty northwest winds will be the story with
sustained wind speeds of 15-20 kts common Sunday afternoon. Winds
will be slightly stronger on Monday afternoon, and with the colder
airmass in place, the stage is set for a raw-feeling day with highs
only topping out in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will
gradually moderate into middle to late next work week, reaching near
normal levels. The extended forecast through Tuesday through Saturday
looks dry at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast with the only
significant weather being a wind shift and increasing winds behind
that wind shift late in the forecast. For now, it looks like the
front will move through the terminals in the 14Z to 17Z window. Winds
will shift to the west to northwest and increase to the 15 to 20 kt
range behind the front. It will also become quite gusty behind the
front with gusts potentially in the 25 to 30 kt range.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...CDB




000
FXUS63 KEAX 061141
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
541 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Shortwave trough is departing the CWA with the only notable effects
being a few light echoes on the radar over west central Missouri.
Shortwave ridging moves into the area today into Sunday with
generally mild temperatures with afternoon readings in the middle
40s to near 50. Next upper disturbance quickly arrives on Sunday and
evolves/amplifies into a large upper trough over the central and
eastern US. Increasing ascent combined with limited moisture should
allow for scattered flurries or light snow Sunday night into Monday,
mainly across portions of Missouri. With much colder air advecting
into the area, vertical temperature profile will support mainly
snow. Little to no accumulation is expected, with the highest
potential accumulations regulated to northeast Missouri where a few
tenths of an inch are possible. Otherwise, with a strengthing
pressure gradient, gusty northwest winds will be the story with
sustained wind speeds of 15-20 kts common Sunday afternoon. Winds
will be slightly stronger on Monday afternoon, and with the colder
airmass in place, the stage is set for a raw-feeling day with highs
only topping out in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will
gradually moderate into middle to late next work week, reaching near
normal levels. The extended forecast through Tuesday through Saturday
looks dry at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR expected through the period. Only concern at STJ for valley fog
and some potential for edge of MVFR ceilings to skirt terminal this
morning. Otherwise winds will gradually back with time.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair



000
FXUS63 KEAX 061141
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
541 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Shortwave trough is departing the CWA with the only notable effects
being a few light echoes on the radar over west central Missouri.
Shortwave ridging moves into the area today into Sunday with
generally mild temperatures with afternoon readings in the middle
40s to near 50. Next upper disturbance quickly arrives on Sunday and
evolves/amplifies into a large upper trough over the central and
eastern US. Increasing ascent combined with limited moisture should
allow for scattered flurries or light snow Sunday night into Monday,
mainly across portions of Missouri. With much colder air advecting
into the area, vertical temperature profile will support mainly
snow. Little to no accumulation is expected, with the highest
potential accumulations regulated to northeast Missouri where a few
tenths of an inch are possible. Otherwise, with a strengthing
pressure gradient, gusty northwest winds will be the story with
sustained wind speeds of 15-20 kts common Sunday afternoon. Winds
will be slightly stronger on Monday afternoon, and with the colder
airmass in place, the stage is set for a raw-feeling day with highs
only topping out in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will
gradually moderate into middle to late next work week, reaching near
normal levels. The extended forecast through Tuesday through Saturday
looks dry at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR expected through the period. Only concern at STJ for valley fog
and some potential for edge of MVFR ceilings to skirt terminal this
morning. Otherwise winds will gradually back with time.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KEAX 061141
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
541 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Shortwave trough is departing the CWA with the only notable effects
being a few light echoes on the radar over west central Missouri.
Shortwave ridging moves into the area today into Sunday with
generally mild temperatures with afternoon readings in the middle
40s to near 50. Next upper disturbance quickly arrives on Sunday and
evolves/amplifies into a large upper trough over the central and
eastern US. Increasing ascent combined with limited moisture should
allow for scattered flurries or light snow Sunday night into Monday,
mainly across portions of Missouri. With much colder air advecting
into the area, vertical temperature profile will support mainly
snow. Little to no accumulation is expected, with the highest
potential accumulations regulated to northeast Missouri where a few
tenths of an inch are possible. Otherwise, with a strengthing
pressure gradient, gusty northwest winds will be the story with
sustained wind speeds of 15-20 kts common Sunday afternoon. Winds
will be slightly stronger on Monday afternoon, and with the colder
airmass in place, the stage is set for a raw-feeling day with highs
only topping out in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will
gradually moderate into middle to late next work week, reaching near
normal levels. The extended forecast through Tuesday through Saturday
looks dry at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR expected through the period. Only concern at STJ for valley fog
and some potential for edge of MVFR ceilings to skirt terminal this
morning. Otherwise winds will gradually back with time.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair




000
FXUS63 KSGF 061129
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
529 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Mostly quiet weather across the area this morning. An upper level
wave is currently moving southeastward across the Red River Valley
region. This feature is bring a few high and mid level clouds
across the area this morning. Radar shows a few sprinkles or
flurries possible but doubt any of this is reaching the ground.

Scattered clouds this morning will give way to plenty of sunshine
this afternoon. Light southwesterly breezes will return today and
temperatures will warm into the lower 50s which is not too bad for
early February standards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A strong deep trough will begin to develop across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Sunday into Monday. A strong
cold front will approach the area late Sunday. Winds will become
more breezy during the day on Sunday from the West-Southwest.
Sunday will be mild temperatures in the middle 50s.

The strong cold front moves through Sunday evening and night.
Winds will become Northwesterly and gusty. The high temperature
for Monday may actually occur around midnight with a steady or
slow falling temperatures during the day on Monday. Model
guidance indicates winds sustained around 30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph likely. A wind advisory may be needed for Monday.

Monday will be a cold, very windy, and cloudy day with off and on
snow flurries or light snow showers possible. Models hint at this
especially on the Ozark Plateau and across the northeastern half
of the area. There is a low potential for a trace to light dusting
possible but impacts are not expected at this time. Wind chills
Monday into Monday night will be in the teens to lower single
digits by Tuesday morning.

The flow flattens out by middle and end of next week with a
moderation of temperatures. Seasonable weather returns by mid week
with slightly above average temperatures by end of the week. No
significant precip chances through the next 7 days. Something to
watch in the long term...some long range models indicate a
potential for a storm system to affect the area in about 8 to 9
days or late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 0526 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at terminals today through
tonight. Other than some scattered mid to high level clouds the
sky will be clear. The exception will be some lower scattered
clouds in the Branson terminal vicinity early this morning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KSGF 061129
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
529 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Mostly quiet weather across the area this morning. An upper level
wave is currently moving southeastward across the Red River Valley
region. This feature is bring a few high and mid level clouds
across the area this morning. Radar shows a few sprinkles or
flurries possible but doubt any of this is reaching the ground.

Scattered clouds this morning will give way to plenty of sunshine
this afternoon. Light southwesterly breezes will return today and
temperatures will warm into the lower 50s which is not too bad for
early February standards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A strong deep trough will begin to develop across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Sunday into Monday. A strong
cold front will approach the area late Sunday. Winds will become
more breezy during the day on Sunday from the West-Southwest.
Sunday will be mild temperatures in the middle 50s.

The strong cold front moves through Sunday evening and night.
Winds will become Northwesterly and gusty. The high temperature
for Monday may actually occur around midnight with a steady or
slow falling temperatures during the day on Monday. Model
guidance indicates winds sustained around 30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph likely. A wind advisory may be needed for Monday.

Monday will be a cold, very windy, and cloudy day with off and on
snow flurries or light snow showers possible. Models hint at this
especially on the Ozark Plateau and across the northeastern half
of the area. There is a low potential for a trace to light dusting
possible but impacts are not expected at this time. Wind chills
Monday into Monday night will be in the teens to lower single
digits by Tuesday morning.

The flow flattens out by middle and end of next week with a
moderation of temperatures. Seasonable weather returns by mid week
with slightly above average temperatures by end of the week. No
significant precip chances through the next 7 days. Something to
watch in the long term...some long range models indicate a
potential for a storm system to affect the area in about 8 to 9
days or late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 0526 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at terminals today through
tonight. Other than some scattered mid to high level clouds the
sky will be clear. The exception will be some lower scattered
clouds in the Branson terminal vicinity early this morning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster



000
FXUS63 KSGF 061129
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
529 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Mostly quiet weather across the area this morning. An upper level
wave is currently moving southeastward across the Red River Valley
region. This feature is bring a few high and mid level clouds
across the area this morning. Radar shows a few sprinkles or
flurries possible but doubt any of this is reaching the ground.

Scattered clouds this morning will give way to plenty of sunshine
this afternoon. Light southwesterly breezes will return today and
temperatures will warm into the lower 50s which is not too bad for
early February standards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A strong deep trough will begin to develop across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Sunday into Monday. A strong
cold front will approach the area late Sunday. Winds will become
more breezy during the day on Sunday from the West-Southwest.
Sunday will be mild temperatures in the middle 50s.

The strong cold front moves through Sunday evening and night.
Winds will become Northwesterly and gusty. The high temperature
for Monday may actually occur around midnight with a steady or
slow falling temperatures during the day on Monday. Model
guidance indicates winds sustained around 30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph likely. A wind advisory may be needed for Monday.

Monday will be a cold, very windy, and cloudy day with off and on
snow flurries or light snow showers possible. Models hint at this
especially on the Ozark Plateau and across the northeastern half
of the area. There is a low potential for a trace to light dusting
possible but impacts are not expected at this time. Wind chills
Monday into Monday night will be in the teens to lower single
digits by Tuesday morning.

The flow flattens out by middle and end of next week with a
moderation of temperatures. Seasonable weather returns by mid week
with slightly above average temperatures by end of the week. No
significant precip chances through the next 7 days. Something to
watch in the long term...some long range models indicate a
potential for a storm system to affect the area in about 8 to 9
days or late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 0526 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at terminals today through
tonight. Other than some scattered mid to high level clouds the
sky will be clear. The exception will be some lower scattered
clouds in the Branson terminal vicinity early this morning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster




000
FXUS63 KEAX 061005
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
405 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Shortwave trough is departing the CWA with the only notable effects
being a few light echoes on the radar over west central Missouri.
Shortwave ridging moves into the area today into Sunday with
generally mild temperatures with afternoon readings in the middle
40s to near 50. Next upper disturbance quickly arrives on Sunday and
evolves/amplifies into a large upper trough over the central and
eastern US. Increasing ascent combined with limited moisture should
allow for scattered flurries or light snow Sunday night into Monday,
mainly across portions of Missouri. With much colder air advecting
into the area, vertical temperature profile will support mainly
snow. Little to no accumulation is expected, with the highest
potential accumulations regulated to northeast Missouri where a few
tenths of an inch are possible. Otherwise, with a strengthing
pressure gradient, gusty northwest winds will be the story with
sustained wind speeds of 15-20 kts common Sunday afternoon. Winds
will be slightly stronger on Monday afternoon, and with the colder
airmass in place, the stage is set for a raw-feeling day with highs
only topping out in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will
gradually moderate into middle to late next work week, reaching near
normal levels. The extended forecast through Tuesday through Saturday
looks dry at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Weak cold front entering far northwest Missouri will cause winds to
veer to the west-northwest over the next few hours. Moisture is
lacking below 8000 feet so no low-clouds or precipitation is expected
with this front. MVFR ceilings over southeast Nebraska could briefly
make it as far south as STJ or the KC area Saturday morning, but VFR
appears more likely.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel




000
FXUS63 KLSX 061002
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

The elongated and positively tilted upper trof stretching from
the Great Lakes into the southern Plains is producing a good deal
of cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles near the Lake of the
Ozarks. This upper trof and the weak surface trof/reflection will
move to the east of the CWA by midday. Clouds will diminish in its
wake while surface winds become westerly and low level warm
advection ensues. Temperatures should see a nice climb over
yesterday`s numbers with highs today around 10 degrees above
average. The low level warm advection regime will persist tonight
with clouds again on the increase well in advance of the next
system.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winter returns.  Big changes ensue this period as a highly
amplified pattern develops Sunday night into Monday, featuring a
strong ridge/block along the west coast and broad deep trof over
the eastern 2/3rds of the Nation. This pattern will unfold as a
upper low/trof digs southeastward from the northern Plains/Upper
MS Valley Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds and low level warm
advection will continue the first part of the day on Sunday
resulting in another day of above average temps. However the lead
short wave and height falls will move into the mid MS Valley
during the afternoon sending the first cold front through the area
by early evening. There could be some spotty light showers in the
afternoon with the short wave producing weak large forcing and
ascent from far east central MO into IL. The real surge of cold
air comes in on Sunday night as the upper low/trof continues to
dig southeast and sends another cold front through the area
accompanied by increasing and gusty northwest winds and strong
CAA. Vorticity maxima within the cyclonic flow aloft will help
produce areas/small bands of light snow. Monday will feel like a
good old winter day with gusty northwest winds and much colder air
producing blustry conditions. Areas/small bands of light snow/snow
showers will continue to impact areas on Monday, and some
locations through the duration could see small accumulations
ranging from a dusting up to an inch.

The deep eastern trof will continue to dominate through midweek
resulting in below average temperatures. The amplitude of the
upper trof will diminish during the later half of the week with
broader cyclonic northwest flow aloft. We will have to keep a wary
eye on fast-moving disturbances within this flow. The models show
one such clipper system in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame, however can`t agree on location and impacts and this also
varies with each successive model run. It appears tempertures will
approach normal levels by week`s end, however the ECMWF has
another northwest flow disturbance on Friday worth watching.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Weak surface high prssure will slide east this morning. The wind
will turn south-southwest most areas by mid-morning. General
subsidence behind the upper trof will keep any significant clouds
from forming or moving into the region. VFR expected for this
forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL: Light southwest wind and VFR conditions will
prevail as high pressure slides east. High clouds will give way to
a lower VFR deck late in the period as a cold front moves in and
the wind shifts to west and picks up in speed.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 061002
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

The elongated and positively tilted upper trof stretching from
the Great Lakes into the southern Plains is producing a good deal
of cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles near the Lake of the
Ozarks. This upper trof and the weak surface trof/reflection will
move to the east of the CWA by midday. Clouds will diminish in its
wake while surface winds become westerly and low level warm
advection ensues. Temperatures should see a nice climb over
yesterday`s numbers with highs today around 10 degrees above
average. The low level warm advection regime will persist tonight
with clouds again on the increase well in advance of the next
system.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winter returns.  Big changes ensue this period as a highly
amplified pattern develops Sunday night into Monday, featuring a
strong ridge/block along the west coast and broad deep trof over
the eastern 2/3rds of the Nation. This pattern will unfold as a
upper low/trof digs southeastward from the northern Plains/Upper
MS Valley Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds and low level warm
advection will continue the first part of the day on Sunday
resulting in another day of above average temps. However the lead
short wave and height falls will move into the mid MS Valley
during the afternoon sending the first cold front through the area
by early evening. There could be some spotty light showers in the
afternoon with the short wave producing weak large forcing and
ascent from far east central MO into IL. The real surge of cold
air comes in on Sunday night as the upper low/trof continues to
dig southeast and sends another cold front through the area
accompanied by increasing and gusty northwest winds and strong
CAA. Vorticity maxima within the cyclonic flow aloft will help
produce areas/small bands of light snow. Monday will feel like a
good old winter day with gusty northwest winds and much colder air
producing blustry conditions. Areas/small bands of light snow/snow
showers will continue to impact areas on Monday, and some
locations through the duration could see small accumulations
ranging from a dusting up to an inch.

The deep eastern trof will continue to dominate through midweek
resulting in below average temperatures. The amplitude of the
upper trof will diminish during the later half of the week with
broader cyclonic northwest flow aloft. We will have to keep a wary
eye on fast-moving disturbances within this flow. The models show
one such clipper system in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame, however can`t agree on location and impacts and this also
varies with each successive model run. It appears tempertures will
approach normal levels by week`s end, however the ECMWF has
another northwest flow disturbance on Friday worth watching.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Weak surface high prssure will slide east this morning. The wind
will turn south-southwest most areas by mid-morning. General
subsidence behind the upper trof will keep any significant clouds
from forming or moving into the region. VFR expected for this
forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL: Light southwest wind and VFR conditions will
prevail as high pressure slides east. High clouds will give way to
a lower VFR deck late in the period as a cold front moves in and
the wind shifts to west and picks up in speed.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 061002
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

The elongated and positively tilted upper trof stretching from
the Great Lakes into the southern Plains is producing a good deal
of cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles near the Lake of the
Ozarks. This upper trof and the weak surface trof/reflection will
move to the east of the CWA by midday. Clouds will diminish in its
wake while surface winds become westerly and low level warm
advection ensues. Temperatures should see a nice climb over
yesterday`s numbers with highs today around 10 degrees above
average. The low level warm advection regime will persist tonight
with clouds again on the increase well in advance of the next
system.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winter returns.  Big changes ensue this period as a highly
amplified pattern develops Sunday night into Monday, featuring a
strong ridge/block along the west coast and broad deep trof over
the eastern 2/3rds of the Nation. This pattern will unfold as a
upper low/trof digs southeastward from the northern Plains/Upper
MS Valley Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds and low level warm
advection will continue the first part of the day on Sunday
resulting in another day of above average temps. However the lead
short wave and height falls will move into the mid MS Valley
during the afternoon sending the first cold front through the area
by early evening. There could be some spotty light showers in the
afternoon with the short wave producing weak large forcing and
ascent from far east central MO into IL. The real surge of cold
air comes in on Sunday night as the upper low/trof continues to
dig southeast and sends another cold front through the area
accompanied by increasing and gusty northwest winds and strong
CAA. Vorticity maxima within the cyclonic flow aloft will help
produce areas/small bands of light snow. Monday will feel like a
good old winter day with gusty northwest winds and much colder air
producing blustry conditions. Areas/small bands of light snow/snow
showers will continue to impact areas on Monday, and some
locations through the duration could see small accumulations
ranging from a dusting up to an inch.

The deep eastern trof will continue to dominate through midweek
resulting in below average temperatures. The amplitude of the
upper trof will diminish during the later half of the week with
broader cyclonic northwest flow aloft. We will have to keep a wary
eye on fast-moving disturbances within this flow. The models show
one such clipper system in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame, however can`t agree on location and impacts and this also
varies with each successive model run. It appears tempertures will
approach normal levels by week`s end, however the ECMWF has
another northwest flow disturbance on Friday worth watching.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Weak surface high prssure will slide east this morning. The wind
will turn south-southwest most areas by mid-morning. General
subsidence behind the upper trof will keep any significant clouds
from forming or moving into the region. VFR expected for this
forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL: Light southwest wind and VFR conditions will
prevail as high pressure slides east. High clouds will give way to
a lower VFR deck late in the period as a cold front moves in and
the wind shifts to west and picks up in speed.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 061002
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

The elongated and positively tilted upper trof stretching from
the Great Lakes into the southern Plains is producing a good deal
of cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles near the Lake of the
Ozarks. This upper trof and the weak surface trof/reflection will
move to the east of the CWA by midday. Clouds will diminish in its
wake while surface winds become westerly and low level warm
advection ensues. Temperatures should see a nice climb over
yesterday`s numbers with highs today around 10 degrees above
average. The low level warm advection regime will persist tonight
with clouds again on the increase well in advance of the next
system.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winter returns.  Big changes ensue this period as a highly
amplified pattern develops Sunday night into Monday, featuring a
strong ridge/block along the west coast and broad deep trof over
the eastern 2/3rds of the Nation. This pattern will unfold as a
upper low/trof digs southeastward from the northern Plains/Upper
MS Valley Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds and low level warm
advection will continue the first part of the day on Sunday
resulting in another day of above average temps. However the lead
short wave and height falls will move into the mid MS Valley
during the afternoon sending the first cold front through the area
by early evening. There could be some spotty light showers in the
afternoon with the short wave producing weak large forcing and
ascent from far east central MO into IL. The real surge of cold
air comes in on Sunday night as the upper low/trof continues to
dig southeast and sends another cold front through the area
accompanied by increasing and gusty northwest winds and strong
CAA. Vorticity maxima within the cyclonic flow aloft will help
produce areas/small bands of light snow. Monday will feel like a
good old winter day with gusty northwest winds and much colder air
producing blustry conditions. Areas/small bands of light snow/snow
showers will continue to impact areas on Monday, and some
locations through the duration could see small accumulations
ranging from a dusting up to an inch.

The deep eastern trof will continue to dominate through midweek
resulting in below average temperatures. The amplitude of the
upper trof will diminish during the later half of the week with
broader cyclonic northwest flow aloft. We will have to keep a wary
eye on fast-moving disturbances within this flow. The models show
one such clipper system in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame, however can`t agree on location and impacts and this also
varies with each successive model run. It appears tempertures will
approach normal levels by week`s end, however the ECMWF has
another northwest flow disturbance on Friday worth watching.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Weak surface high prssure will slide east this morning. The wind
will turn south-southwest most areas by mid-morning. General
subsidence behind the upper trof will keep any significant clouds
from forming or moving into the region. VFR expected for this
forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL: Light southwest wind and VFR conditions will
prevail as high pressure slides east. High clouds will give way to
a lower VFR deck late in the period as a cold front moves in and
the wind shifts to west and picks up in speed.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 061002
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

The elongated and positively tilted upper trof stretching from
the Great Lakes into the southern Plains is producing a good deal
of cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles near the Lake of the
Ozarks. This upper trof and the weak surface trof/reflection will
move to the east of the CWA by midday. Clouds will diminish in its
wake while surface winds become westerly and low level warm
advection ensues. Temperatures should see a nice climb over
yesterday`s numbers with highs today around 10 degrees above
average. The low level warm advection regime will persist tonight
with clouds again on the increase well in advance of the next
system.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winter returns.  Big changes ensue this period as a highly
amplified pattern develops Sunday night into Monday, featuring a
strong ridge/block along the west coast and broad deep trof over
the eastern 2/3rds of the Nation. This pattern will unfold as a
upper low/trof digs southeastward from the northern Plains/Upper
MS Valley Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds and low level warm
advection will continue the first part of the day on Sunday
resulting in another day of above average temps. However the lead
short wave and height falls will move into the mid MS Valley
during the afternoon sending the first cold front through the area
by early evening. There could be some spotty light showers in the
afternoon with the short wave producing weak large forcing and
ascent from far east central MO into IL. The real surge of cold
air comes in on Sunday night as the upper low/trof continues to
dig southeast and sends another cold front through the area
accompanied by increasing and gusty northwest winds and strong
CAA. Vorticity maxima within the cyclonic flow aloft will help
produce areas/small bands of light snow. Monday will feel like a
good old winter day with gusty northwest winds and much colder air
producing blustry conditions. Areas/small bands of light snow/snow
showers will continue to impact areas on Monday, and some
locations through the duration could see small accumulations
ranging from a dusting up to an inch.

The deep eastern trof will continue to dominate through midweek
resulting in below average temperatures. The amplitude of the
upper trof will diminish during the later half of the week with
broader cyclonic northwest flow aloft. We will have to keep a wary
eye on fast-moving disturbances within this flow. The models show
one such clipper system in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame, however can`t agree on location and impacts and this also
varies with each successive model run. It appears tempertures will
approach normal levels by week`s end, however the ECMWF has
another northwest flow disturbance on Friday worth watching.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Weak surface high prssure will slide east this morning. The wind
will turn south-southwest most areas by mid-morning. General
subsidence behind the upper trof will keep any significant clouds
from forming or moving into the region. VFR expected for this
forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL: Light southwest wind and VFR conditions will
prevail as high pressure slides east. High clouds will give way to
a lower VFR deck late in the period as a cold front moves in and
the wind shifts to west and picks up in speed.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KLSX 060934
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

The elongated and positively tilted upper trof stretching from
the Great Lakes into the southern Plains is producing a good deal
of cloudiness and possibly a few sprinkles near the Lake of the
Ozarks. This upper trof and the weak surface trof/reflection will
move to the east of the CWA by midday. Clouds will diminish in its
wake while surface winds become westerly and low level warm
advection ensues. Temperatures should see a nice climb over
yesterday`s numbers with highs today around 10 degrees above
average. The low level warm advection regime will persist tonight
with clouds again on the increase well in advance of the next
system.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Winter returns.  Big changes ensue this period as a highly
amplified pattern develops Sunday night into Monday, featuring a
strong ridge/block along the west coast and broad deep trof over
the eastern 2/3rds of the Nation. This pattern will unfold as a
upper low/trof digs southeastward from the northern Plains/Upper
MS Valley Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds and low level warm
advection will continue the first part of the day on Sunday
resulting in another day of above average temps. However the lead
short wave and height falls will move into the mid MS Valley
during the afternoon sending the first cold front through the area
by early evening. There could be some spotty light showers in the
afternoon with the short wave producing weak large forcing and
ascent from far east central MO into IL. The real surge of cold
air comes in on Sunday night as the upper low/trof continues to
dig southeast and sends another cold front through the area
accompanied by increasing and gusty northwest winds and strong
CAA. Vorticity maxima within the cyclonic flow aloft will help
produce areas/small bands of light snow. Monday will feel like a
good old winter day with gusty northwest winds and much colder air
producing blustry conditions. Areas/small bands of light snow/snow
showers will continue to impact areas on Monday, and some
locations through the duration could see small accumulations
ranging from a dusting up to an inch.

The deep eastern trof will continue to dominate through midweek
resulting in below average temperatures. The amplitude of the
upper trof will diminish during the later half of the week with
broader cyclonic northwest flow aloft. We will have to keep a wary
eye on fast-moving disturbances within this flow. The models show
one such clipper system in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame, however can`t agree on location and impacts and this also
varies with each successive model run. It appears tempertures will
approach normal levels by week`s end, however the ECMWF has
another northwest flow disturbance on Friday worth watching.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2016

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light
easterly winds will shift to the southwest early on Saturday
morning as high pressure moves off to the east.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected the next
30 hours.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




000
FXUS63 KSGF 060853
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Mild This Weekend...Quick Blast of Cold Weather Early Next
Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Mostly quiet weather across the area this morning. An upper level
wave is currently moving southeastward across the Red River Valley
region. This feature is bring a few high and mid level clouds
across the area this morning. Radar shows a few sprinkles or
flurries possible but doubt any of this is reaching the ground.

Scattered clouds this morning will give way to plenty of sunshine
this afternoon. Light southwesterly breezes will return today and
temperatures will warm into the lower 50s which is not too bad for
early February standards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A strong deep trough will begin to develop across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Sunday into Monday. A strong
cold front will approach the area late Sunday. Winds will become
more breezy during the day on Sunday from the West-Southwest.
Sunday will be mild temperatures in the middle 50s.

The strong cold front moves through Sunday evening and night.
Winds will become Northwesterly and gusty. The high temperature
for Monday may actually occur around midnight with a steady or
slow falling temperatures during the day on Monday. Model
guidance indicates winds sustained around 30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph likely. A wind advisory may be needed for Monday.

Monday will be a cold, very windy, and cloudy day with off and on
snow flurries or light snow showers possible. Models hint at this
especially on the Ozark Plateau and across the northeastern half
of the area. There is a low potential for a trace to light dusting
possible but impacts are not expected at this time. Wind chills
Monday into Monday night will be in the teens to lower single
digits by Tuesday morning.

The flow flattens out by middle and end of next week with a
moderation of temperatures. Seasonable weather returns by mid week
with slightly above average temperatures by end of the week. No
significant precip chances through the next 7 days. Something to
watch in the long term...some long range models indicate a
potential for a storm system to affect the area in about 8 to 9
days or late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period, but will have some
mid/high level ceilings until morning. Shortwave energy will pass
to our south and west, so with fairly dry low levels, am not
expecting any precipitation either.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg




000
FXUS63 KSGF 060853
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Mild This Weekend...Quick Blast of Cold Weather Early Next
Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Mostly quiet weather across the area this morning. An upper level
wave is currently moving southeastward across the Red River Valley
region. This feature is bring a few high and mid level clouds
across the area this morning. Radar shows a few sprinkles or
flurries possible but doubt any of this is reaching the ground.

Scattered clouds this morning will give way to plenty of sunshine
this afternoon. Light southwesterly breezes will return today and
temperatures will warm into the lower 50s which is not too bad for
early February standards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A strong deep trough will begin to develop across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Sunday into Monday. A strong
cold front will approach the area late Sunday. Winds will become
more breezy during the day on Sunday from the West-Southwest.
Sunday will be mild temperatures in the middle 50s.

The strong cold front moves through Sunday evening and night.
Winds will become Northwesterly and gusty. The high temperature
for Monday may actually occur around midnight with a steady or
slow falling temperatures during the day on Monday. Model
guidance indicates winds sustained around 30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph likely. A wind advisory may be needed for Monday.

Monday will be a cold, very windy, and cloudy day with off and on
snow flurries or light snow showers possible. Models hint at this
especially on the Ozark Plateau and across the northeastern half
of the area. There is a low potential for a trace to light dusting
possible but impacts are not expected at this time. Wind chills
Monday into Monday night will be in the teens to lower single
digits by Tuesday morning.

The flow flattens out by middle and end of next week with a
moderation of temperatures. Seasonable weather returns by mid week
with slightly above average temperatures by end of the week. No
significant precip chances through the next 7 days. Something to
watch in the long term...some long range models indicate a
potential for a storm system to affect the area in about 8 to 9
days or late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period, but will have some
mid/high level ceilings until morning. Shortwave energy will pass
to our south and west, so with fairly dry low levels, am not
expecting any precipitation either.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg



000
FXUS63 KSGF 060853
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Mild This Weekend...Quick Blast of Cold Weather Early Next
Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

Mostly quiet weather across the area this morning. An upper level
wave is currently moving southeastward across the Red River Valley
region. This feature is bring a few high and mid level clouds
across the area this morning. Radar shows a few sprinkles or
flurries possible but doubt any of this is reaching the ground.

Scattered clouds this morning will give way to plenty of sunshine
this afternoon. Light southwesterly breezes will return today and
temperatures will warm into the lower 50s which is not too bad for
early February standards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 0228 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

A strong deep trough will begin to develop across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Sunday into Monday. A strong
cold front will approach the area late Sunday. Winds will become
more breezy during the day on Sunday from the West-Southwest.
Sunday will be mild temperatures in the middle 50s.

The strong cold front moves through Sunday evening and night.
Winds will become Northwesterly and gusty. The high temperature
for Monday may actually occur around midnight with a steady or
slow falling temperatures during the day on Monday. Model
guidance indicates winds sustained around 30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph likely. A wind advisory may be needed for Monday.

Monday will be a cold, very windy, and cloudy day with off and on
snow flurries or light snow showers possible. Models hint at this
especially on the Ozark Plateau and across the northeastern half
of the area. There is a low potential for a trace to light dusting
possible but impacts are not expected at this time. Wind chills
Monday into Monday night will be in the teens to lower single
digits by Tuesday morning.

The flow flattens out by middle and end of next week with a
moderation of temperatures. Seasonable weather returns by mid week
with slightly above average temperatures by end of the week. No
significant precip chances through the next 7 days. Something to
watch in the long term...some long range models indicate a
potential for a storm system to affect the area in about 8 to 9
days or late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period, but will have some
mid/high level ceilings until morning. Shortwave energy will pass
to our south and west, so with fairly dry low levels, am not
expecting any precipitation either.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg




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