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000
FXUS63 KLSX 241145
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Weak shortwave will round periphery of mid/upper ridge with main impact
being an increase in high-level cloudiness for portions of the area.
At the sfc...a weak frontal boundary will approach northwestern sections
of the CWFA by 0000 UTC Saturday. At this time...no wet weather is
expected to accompany this frontal boundary. Temperatures will continue
on the upswing with highs back above average ranging from the upper
60s over south-central Illinois to low/mid 70s for portions of central...
east-central...and southeastern Missouri.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014


(Tonight - Monday)

Aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to move through the rest of
the CWA overnight tonight with little fanfare other than a subtle wind
shift from the southwest to the west/northwest. With light winds and
clearing skies behind boundary and associated shortwave trough...did
lean a bit toward cooler NWP guidance with lows mainly in the 50s across
the area.

The Saturday through Monday period will be characterized by well-above
normal temperatures as upper-level ridging builds overhead and 850-hPa
thermal ridge advects toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Have upped highs
quite a bit from previous forecast into the 70s/80s areawide or some
10-20 degrees above normal. Lows will also follow suit and get progressively
warmer. All in all...dry and unseasonably warm will be the rule with
record or near-record high and/or high low temperatures possible.


(Monday Night - Thursday)

A cold front will move through the area on Monday night with medium-ranged
guidance in very good agreement with fropa timing and associated rain
chances. This front should bring a fairly good chance of showers with
thunder also possible. Instability looks almost non-existent however due
to low-leevl ridging preventing Gulf moisture from streaming northward.
However...did leave mention of thunder in the grids as believe there
should be at least some meager instability...if nothing else due to the
very anomalous sfc temps. This front will also finally move out the
unseasonably warm temperatures and usher in daytime highs and nighttime
lows much closer to seasonal norms for late October. Highs are expected
to be back in the 60s with lows in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday along
with dry weather conditions.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

FG will be slow to burn off this morning, but shud gradually lift
to become ST before breaking up. Timing is still somewhat
questionable, but will update as needed. VFR conditions are then
expected thru much of the evening. An approaching cdfnt will shift
the winds to the NW, but will remain light. FG is expected once
again tonight. Timing and locations are still uncertain, but
confidence is high enuf to lower vsbys into low MVFR range.

Specifics for KSTL: Mainly VFR conditions are expected thru the
day. However, patches of MVFR cigs may briefly impact the terminal
this morning. Otherwise, winds are expected to remain light with
FG possible around sunrise Sat morning. Have not mentioned in TAF
attm due to uncertainty.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
     Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Adams IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






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000
FXUS63 KSGF 241059
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Areas of dense fog were occurring across portions of southwestern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas again this morning. This
was resulting from ground moisture from the showers yesterday and
surface high pressure just south of the Ozarks. The fog was the
thickest where winds were light or calm. When winds came up a
little visibilities improved, only to drop again when the winds
diminished. This will continue through sunrise this morning as
temperatures fall into the middle 40s across south central
Missouri, closer to the surface high, and into the middle 50s
across western Missouri as an upper level ridge begins to build
into the area.

As the ridge builds into the area today, temperatures will climb
into the middle to upper 70s. Winds will turn out of the south but
should remain fairly light. As the broad upper level ridge slides
across the southern plains and towards the Ozarks, temperatures
will be on the warm side with overnight lows about 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The upper level ridge will be in control of the region`s weather
through the weekend as it makes its slow eastward progression. The
result will be warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight
lows only falling into the middle 50s to lower 60s. It will be
possible that some locations may approach record highs through the
weekend. See the Climo section below for the record highs through
the weekend.

An upper level trough will make its way across the CONUS starting
next week with a surface low and cold front moving through the
Ozarks late Monday night through mid day Tuesday. This will be the
region`s next and best chance for rain through next week. Another
weak wave does move across the plains early Thursday morning, but
the models have very different precipitation outputs at the
moment. The ECMWF brings rain through the Ozarks while the GFS is
nearly dry.

With the upper level trough that brings the rain early next week
will come more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
night time lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The threat for widespread dense fog has diminished early this
morning across southern Missouri. Patches of IFR visibility are
still expected, but the threat for LIFR is low. Any fog will then
burn off by mid-morning as southerly winds increase. Some weather
models bring in a few hours of MVFR cloud cover later this
morning, however we have elected to keep this threat out of the
TAFs given an overall lack of MVFR ceilings in regional
observations. Thus, we are expecting VFR conditions from mid-
morning through most of tonight. We will have to watch for fog
potential again late tonight, but confidence remains low in this
scenario.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ077-079-
     088>091-093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann





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000
FXUS63 KEAX 241056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Widespread fog and low stratus should stay status quo for a couple of
hours, then slowly lift into a high-end IFR deck and eventually into
MVFR before scattering out by this afternoon. With thick cirrus
coming in from the north, don`t expect much more deterioration of
conditions and may in fact see a bit of improvement by sunrise. Some
fog is again possible early Saturday morning but should be more
patchy in nature.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ002>008-
     012>017-020>025-030>033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 241056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
556 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Widespread fog and low stratus should stay status quo for a couple of
hours, then slowly lift into a high-end IFR deck and eventually into
MVFR before scattering out by this afternoon. With thick cirrus
coming in from the north, don`t expect much more deterioration of
conditions and may in fact see a bit of improvement by sunrise. Some
fog is again possible early Saturday morning but should be more
patchy in nature.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ002>008-
     012>017-020>025-030>033-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240836
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Weak shortwave will round periphery of mid/upper ridge with main impact
being an increase in high-level cloudiness for portions of the area.
At the sfc...a weak frontal boundary will approach northwestern sections
of the CWFA by 0000 UTC Saturday. At this time...no wet weather is
expected to accompany this frontal boundary. Temperatures will continue
on the upswing with highs back above average ranging from the upper
60s over south-central Illinois to low/mid 70s for portions of central...
east-central...and southeastern Missouri.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014


(Tonight - Monday)

Aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to move through the rest of
the CWA overnight tonight with little fanfare other than a subtle wind
shift from the southwest to the west/northwest. With light winds and
clearing skies behind boundary and associated shortwave trough...did
lean a bit toward cooler NWP guidance with lows mainly in the 50s across
the area.

The Saturday through Monday period will be characterized by well-above
normal temperatures as upper-level ridging builds overhead and 850-hPa
thermal ridge advects toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Have upped highs
quite a bit from previous forecast into the 70s/80s areawide or some
10-20 degrees above normal. Lows will also follow suit and get progressively
warmer. All in all...dry and unseasonably warm will be the rule with
record or near-record high and/or high low temperatures possible.


(Monday Night - Thursday)

A cold front will move through the area on Monday night with medium-ranged
guidance in very good agreement with fropa timing and associated rain
chances. This front should bring a fairly good chance of showers with
thunder also possible. Instability looks almost non-existent however due
to low-leevl ridging preventing Gulf moisture from streaming northward.
However...did leave mention of thunder in the grids as believe there
should be at least some meager instability...if nothing else due to the
very anomalous sfc temps. This front will also finally move out the
unseasonably warm temperatures and usher in daytime highs and nighttime
lows much closer to seasonal norms for late October. Highs are expected
to be back in the 60s with lows in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday along
with dry weather conditions.


Gosselin


&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

A band of clouds around 3000-5000 feet was moving southeastward
through the taf sites this evening. Behind it partial clearing was
leading to the development of patchy stratus and fog.  Additional
development of stratus clouds and fog can be expected late
tonight with the models depicting plenty of boundary layer
moisture. These low level clouds and fog will dissipate by late
Friday morning. A swly surface wind can be expected late tonight
and Friday.

Specifics for KSTL: Stratus clouds and fog will develop late
tonight with MVFR conditions. These low level, MVFR clouds and fog will
dissipate by late Friday morning. Light sly surface wind will veer
around to a swly direction late tonight, then back around to a
sly direction again late Friday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     73  59  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          68  54  75  50 /   5   0   0   0
Columbia        73  56  79  58 /   5   0   0   0
Jefferson City  74  56  80  55 /   5   0   0   0
Salem           69  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      72  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240833
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Areas of dense fog were occurring across portions of southwestern
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas again this morning. This
was resulting from ground moisture from the showers yesterday and
surface high pressure just south of the Ozarks. The fog was the
thickest where winds were light or calm. When winds came up a
little visibilities improved, only to drop again when the winds
diminished. This will continue through sunrise this morning as
temperatures fall into the middle 40s across south central
Missouri, closer to the surface high, and into the middle 50s
across western Missouri as an upper level ridge begins to build
into the area.

As the ridge builds into the area today, temperatures will climb
into the middle to upper 70s. Winds will turn out of the south but
should remain fairly light. As the broad upper level ridge slides
across the southern plains and towards the Ozarks, temperatures
will be on the warm side with overnight lows about 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

The upper level ridge will be in control of the region`s weather
through the weekend as it makes its slow eastward progression. The
result will be warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight
lows only falling into the middle 50s to lower 60s. It will be
possible that some locations may approach record highs through the
weekend. See the Climo section below for the record highs through
the weekend.

An upper level trough will make its way across the CONUS starting
next week with a surface low and cold front moving through the
Ozarks late Monday night through mid day Tuesday. This will be the
region`s next and best chance for rain through next week. Another
weak wave does move across the plains early Thursday morning, but
the models have very different precipitation outputs at the
moment. The ECMWF brings rain through the Ozarks while the GFS is
nearly dry.

With the upper level trough that brings the rain early next week
will come more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
night time lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become more dense tonight than initially expected...and
will be the main aviation concern through morning. Visibilities
will vary widely in both space and time...with some terminals
seeing vis vary between VFR and airport minimums within the span
of an hour. Right now, fog is expected to be most widespread at
SGF, followed by JLN and then BBG. However, confidence in exact
magnitude is low.

Along with the fog...cigs will also vary widely...ranging from VFR
to LIFR.

Conditions should improve considerably within a few hours of
sunrise Friday morning, with VFR expected from mid morning as
skies clear and fog dissipates.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ077-079-
     088>091-093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Boxell






000
FXUS63 KEAX 240828
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fog is the main concern this morning with widespread dense fog over
much of northern Missouri, becoming lighter in nature across areas
further south and west. Occasional high clouds have kept this fog
from becoming more widespread across western MO and eastern KS, but
this could change toward sunrise as these clouds are thinning out a
bit. For now plan no changes to the current dense fog advisory as
observations and webcams across ares outside of the advisory suggest
some of this moisture is taking the form of a low stratus versus
widespread dense fog. If low visibilities do start to become more
widespread then this advisory will need expanding.

Combo of thick low clouds/fog and some thicker cirrus spreading
in from the northwest may make it difficult to reach the 80 degree
mark today. Therefore highs were lowered a few degrees, ranging from
the upper 70s near the KS/MO state line to near 70 across the
Kirksville area where low clouds and fog will take longer to burn
off. May need to watch for a few areas of fog again tonight when a
front will sag into the area from the north but gradually wash out,
resulting in another night of light winds. Lower moisture should keep
any fog from becoming as widespread as it is this morning.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and warm with a deep upper-level
ridge building into the area. Highs could be as warm as the lower to
even middle 80s on Sunday which will be more typical of early
September (record highs of 87 at both KC and STJ on Sunday should be
safe).

On Monday a cold front will track through the area with showers and a
few thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of it through the
afternoon. Despite the unseasonably warm airmass in place, marginal
moisture and the presence of a low-level capping inversion don`t
appear supportive of any strong storms or heavy rain with this front.
Will need to keep an eye on this though as mid-level winds will be
fairly strong, so the threat for strong storms could increase if
instability trends stronger than currently expected.

A shift into quasi-zonal upper flow behind the front will bring a
return to dry conditions for much of next week while temperatures
drop closer to seasonal normals. This could mean lows in the upper
30s for some areas later next week, but for now there don`t appear to
be any significant frost or freeze threats for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ003>008-
     013>017-021>025-030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ003>008-013>017-
     021>025-030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KEAX 240459
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ003>008-013>017-
     021>025-030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240447
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Late Evening Update for Dense Fog and 06Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become increasingly dense across southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas where clouds have continued to clear...and
have gone ahead with Dense Fog Advisory for this area through 8
AM. Visibilities will be rather variable across the Advisory
area, with rapid changes in visibility over short distances
expected. Trends will be monitored for the possibility of
expanding the Advisory further north and east later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become more dense tonight than initially expected...and
will be the main aviation concern through morning. Visibilities
will vary widely in both space and time...with some terminals
seeing vis vary between VFR and airport minimums within the span
of an hour. Right now, fog is expected to be most widespread at
SGF, followed by JLN and then BBG. However, confidence in exact
magnitude is low.

Along with the fog...cigs will also vary widely...ranging from VFR
to LIFR.

Conditions should improve considerably within a few hours of
sunrise Friday morning, with VFR expected from mid morning as
skies clear and fog dissipates.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ077-079-088>091-
     093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 240434
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1134 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Shortwave trough responsible for the isolated light showers
currently over the northern part of the CWA will be pushing east of
the area early this evening.  Will go dry tonight as any remaining
rain shouldn`t be more than just sprinkles.  The models show that
there will be enough low level moisture for low clouds and some fog
to develop over central and northeast Missouri as well as west
central Illinois after midnight that will last past sunrise Friday
morning.  Have added mention of patchy/areas of fog to account for
this.  Went with lows close to current dewpoints.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Friday through Sunday )

Still looks like this will be a dry period with above normal
temperatures.  Weak trough will move across Missouri and Illinois
tomorrow, though moisture will be too limited in northwest flow to
provide any rain chances.  Still expect temperatures to climb above
normal as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of cold front that
will move through the area early on Saturday.  Even though the cold
front will move through early in the day, highs should be well into
the 70s on Saturday as 850mb temperatures climb into the mid teens
Celsius under mostly clear skies.  Temperatures should be similar on
Sunday as the surface high moves off the the east with clear skies.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Will keep the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going
over the area from Monday night into Tuesday as both the GFS and
ECMWF show a trough and an attendant cold front moving across the
region during this time frame.  While there are some minor
differences with depth and speed of the trough, do not think these
will affect timing of this system.  Highs on Monday should be once
again be well above normal ahead the cold front, but then cool down
on Tuesday with passage of the cold front.  Wednesday and Thursday
will see highs closer to normal with cold air advection behind the
front and 5-10C 850mb temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

A band of clouds around 3000-5000 feet was moving southeastward
through the taf sites this evening. Behind it partial clearing was
leading to the development of patchy stratus and fog.  Additional
development of stratus clouds and fog can be expected late
tonight with the models depicting plenty of boundary layer
moisture. These low level clouds and fog will dissipate by late
Friday morning. A swly surface wind can be expected late tonight
and Friday.

Specifics for KSTL: Stratus clouds and fog will develop late
tonight with MVFR conditions. These low level, MVFR clouds and fog will
dissipate by late Friday morning. Light sly surface wind will veer
around to a swly direction late tonight, then back around to a
sly direction again late Friday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240426
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Late Evening Update for Dense Fog...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fog has become increasingly dense across southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas where clouds have continued to clear...and
have gone ahead with Dense Fog Advisory for this area through 8
AM. Visibilities will be rather variable across the Advisory
area, with rapid changes in visibility over short distances
expected. Trends will be monitored for the possibility of
expanding the Advisory further north and east later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Widespread stratus will remain in place across the region through
morning. A dip down to MVFR is expected later tonight at all sites
(it has already occurred at JLN), with at least some potential for
periods of IFR. Will also need to watch fog potential. With clouds
in place, expect vis to remain within the 2-4 SM range, though
lower values can`t be ruled out, especially if clouds were to
clear earlier than expected.

Clouds and any visibility restrictions should lift by mid morning
Friday, with VFR expected thereafter.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ077-079-088>091-
     093>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Mid Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Have made some updates this evening to increase fog potential
across the region. Early evening temperatures have cooled a bit
faster than initially expected thanks to some breaks in the cloud
cover, and this has resulted in fog formation in several locations as
of mid evening. Temperatures will continue to cool through the
overnight, and with no dry air advecting into the region, many
locations will likely approach saturation during the overnight
hours. Fog will be patchy in nature, owning to the scattered to
broken nature of the cloud cover, and will be most likely in those
areas that experienced a brief shower earlier today.

For now, will take visibilities down to around a mile or so,
though lower values are certainly possible on a localized basis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Widespread stratus will remain in place across the region through
morning. A dip down to MVFR is expected later tonight at all sites
(it has already occurred at JLN), with at least some potential for
periods of IFR. Will also need to watch fog potential. With clouds
in place, expect vis to remain within the 2-4 SM range, though
lower values can`t be ruled out, especially if clouds were to
clear earlier than expected.

Clouds and any visibility restrictions should lift by mid morning
Friday, with VFR expected thereafter.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 240159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Mid Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Have made some updates this evening to increase fog potential
across the region. Early evening temperatures have cooled a bit
faster than initially expected thanks to some breaks in the cloud
cover, and this has resulted in fog formation in several locations as
of mid evening. Temperatures will continue to cool through the
overnight, and with no dry air advecting into the region, many
locations will likely approach saturation during the overnight
hours. Fog will be patchy in nature, owning to the scattered to
broken nature of the cloud cover, and will be most likely in those
areas that experienced a brief shower earlier today.

For now, will take visibilities down to around a mile or so,
though lower values are certainly possible on a localized basis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Widespread stratus will remain in place across the region through
morning. A dip down to MVFR is expected later tonight at all sites
(it has already occurred at JLN), with at least some potential for
periods of IFR. Will also need to watch fog potential. With clouds
in place, expect vis to remain within the 2-4 SM range, though
lower values can`t be ruled out, especially if clouds were to
clear earlier than expected.

Clouds and any visibility restrictions should lift by mid morning
Friday, with VFR expected thereafter.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 232338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Primary concern for the overnight period through early Friday morning
will be fog, potentially dense. Combining the ingredients of lingering
low-level moisture, light winds, and clearing skies will yield fog to
impact all four TAF sites. MCI and IXD are anticipated to drop down
into at least the IFR category with STJ looking to reach LIFR,
especially during the pre-dawn to just after dawn hours. MKC looks to
not drop quite as low as the three others but will need to be
monitored for possible IFR conditions during the prone hours. Once
the fog/low stratus burns off in the morning, VFR conditions will
return with just some clouds littering the skies in the afternoon.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will continue to prevail throughout
the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 232327
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Quick moving upper level shortwave was pushing through the area
today and has brought light rain showers to mostly the western
half of the CWA, although a few remnant showers were occurring in
the east this afternoon. The cloud cover/scattered showers were
aiding in keeping temperatures from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Main forecast focus will be with the well above normal
temperatures expected over the next few days and the
shower/thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Widespread stratus will remain in place across the region through
morning. A dip down to MVFR is expected later tonight at all sites
(it has already occurred at JLN), with at least some potential for
periods of IFR. Will also need to watch fog potential. With clouds
in place, expect vis to remain within the 2-4 SM range, though
lower values can`t be ruled out, especially if clouds were to
clear earlier than expected.

Clouds and any visibility restrictions should lift by mid morning
Friday, with VFR expected thereafter.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 232251
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
551 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Shortwave trough responsible for the isolated light showers
currently over the northern part of the CWA will be pushing east of
the area early this evening.  Will go dry tonight as any remaining
rain shouldn`t be more than just sprinkles.  The models show that
there will be enough low level moisture for low clouds and some fog
to develop over central and northeast Missouri as well as west
central Illinois after midnight that will last past sunrise Friday
morning.  Have added mention of patchy/areas of fog to account for
this.  Went with lows close to current dewpoints.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Friday through Sunday )

Still looks like this will be a dry period with above normal
temperatures.  Weak trough will move across Missouri and Illinois
tomorrow, though moisture will be too limited in northwest flow to
provide any rain chances.  Still expect temperatures to climb above
normal as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of cold front that
will move through the area early on Saturday.  Even though the cold
front will move through early in the day, highs should be well into
the 70s on Saturday as 850mb temperatures climb into the mid teens
Celsius under mostly clear skies.  Temperatures should be similar on
Sunday as the surface high moves off the the east with clear skies.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Will keep the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going
over the area from Monday night into Tuesday as both the GFS and
ECMWF show a trough and an attendant cold front moving across the
region during this time frame.  While there are some minor
differences with depth and speed of the trough, do not think these
will affect timing of this system.  Highs on Monday should be once
again be well above normal ahead the cold front, but then cool down
on Tuesday with passage of the cold front.  Wednesday and Thursday
will see highs closer to normal with cold air advection behind the
front and 5-10C 850mb temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Although the mid-high level cloudiness will advect e-se of the
taf sites this evening as the upper level trough shifts e-se of
the area, there was an area of low level, MVFR cloudiness along a
dissipating cool front/surface trough from DMO northeast through
IRK which will advect southeastward into the taf sites tonight.
There may also be some additional development of stratuc clouds
and fog late tonight with the models depicting plenty of boundary
layer moisture. These low level clouds and fog will dissipate by
late Friday morning. The sly surface wind will veer around to a
swly direction later this evening, albeit the wind speed will be
light.

Specifics for KSTL: Low level cloudiness will advect into STL
later this evening along with the development of some stratus
clouds and fog late tonight. These low level, MVFR clouds and fog
will dissipate by late Friday morning. Light sly surface wind will
veer around to a swly direction later tonight, then back around to
a sly direction again late Friday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 232036
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Shortwave trough responsible for the isolated light showers
currently over the northern part of the CWA will be pushing east of
the area early this evening.  Will go dry tonight as any remaining
rain shouldn`t be more than just sprinkles.  The models show that
there will be enough low level moisture for low clouds and some fog
to develop over central and northeast Missouri as well as west
central Illinois after midnight that will last past sunrise Friday
morning.  Have added mention of patchy/areas of fog to account for
this.  Went with lows close to current dewpoints.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Friday through Sunday )

Still looks like this will be a dry period with above normal
temperatures.  Weak trough will move across Missouri and Illinois
tomorrow, though moisture will be too limited in northwest flow to
provide any rain chances.  Still expect temperatures to climb above
normal as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of cold front that
will move through the area early on Saturday.  Even though the cold
front will move through early in the day, highs should be well into
the 70s on Saturday as 850mb temperatures climb into the mid teens
Celsius under mostly clear skies.  Temperatures should be similar on
Sunday as the surface high moves off the the east with clear skies.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Will keep the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going
over the area from Monday night into Tuesday as both the GFS and
ECMWF show a trough and an attendant cold front moving across the
region during this time frame.  While there are some minor
differences with depth and speed of the trough, do not think these
will affect timing of this system.  Highs on Monday should be once
again be well above normal ahead the cold front, but then cool down
on Tuesday with passage of the cold front.  Wednesday and Thursday
will see highs closer to normal with cold air advection behind the
front and 5-10C 850mb temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Rain showers having a real tough time moving east due to dry air
in lower levels. That being said, I can`t rule out a sprinkle or
brief shower at KCOU or KUIN this afternoon. Otherwise, low level
moisture will be on the increase later this evening and overnight
as southerly flow continues. This should lead to some MVFR
conditions in both the ceiling and visibility category overnight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected until later tonight when MVFR ceiling will
develop and fog may reduce visibility to 5SM. Scattering of cloud
cover is expected on Friday with a continued light southerly wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KEAX 232003
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog
tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary
layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist
advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high
probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows
probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But
there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that
we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with
more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to
northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast
area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to
get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where
any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than
about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus
either moves away or breaks up.

Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for
this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the
very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than
expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds
seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the
forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the
Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on
Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to
Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from
the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees.
This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very
warm for late October.

Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A
progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our
region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day
Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability
wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though
the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of
rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and
ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more
consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far
eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will
rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains
and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to
seasonal normals with dry conditions expected.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Cloud cover will remain in place throughout the forecast period with
a break or two expected Thursday evening. Expecting MVFR conditions
to continue with gradual improvement behind the cold front as it
slides eastward. Favorable conditions will present a chance of minor fog
development for all terminals overnight.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231926
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Quick moving upper level shortwave was pushing through the area
today and has brought light rain showers to mostly the western
half of the CWA, although a few remnant showers were occuring in
the east this afternoon. The cloud cover/scattered showers were
aiding in keeping temperatures from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Main forecast focus will be with the well above normal
temperatures expected over the next few days and the
shower/thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: An area of light showers continue
to spread east across the area. These showers are weakening and
coverage is really decreasing early this afternoon. This trend
will continue and all the rain will be weaken and dissipate at the
TAF sites by the mid afternoon hours. There could be some brief
periods of sprinkles here over the the next hour or so, but with
the coverage really decreasing the chances of a TAF site getting
affect is decreasing.

MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed on the back side of this rain
and will be possible through of the afternoon at the KSGF and KJLN
TAFS. There are more questions if ceilings will drop as much at
the KBBG site.

The clouds will lift and begin to break up this evening into the
overnight hours. As skies clear overnight some light fog will be
possible early Friday morning.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231926
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Quick moving upper level shortwave was pushing through the area
today and has brought light rain showers to mostly the western
half of the CWA, although a few remnant showers were occuring in
the east this afternoon. The cloud cover/scattered showers were
aiding in keeping temperatures from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Main forecast focus will be with the well above normal
temperatures expected over the next few days and the
shower/thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: An area of light showers continue
to spread east across the area. These showers are weakening and
coverage is really decreasing early this afternoon. This trend
will continue and all the rain will be weaken and dissipate at the
TAF sites by the mid afternoon hours. There could be some brief
periods of sprinkles here over the the next hour or so, but with
the coverage really decreasing the chances of a TAF site getting
affect is decreasing.

MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed on the back side of this rain
and will be possible through of the afternoon at the KSGF and KJLN
TAFS. There are more questions if ceilings will drop as much at
the KBBG site.

The clouds will lift and begin to break up this evening into the
overnight hours. As skies clear overnight some light fog will be
possible early Friday morning.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 231742
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Broad N-S band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of plains
shortwave currently stretch from western IA, through nw MO, into se
KS, and the primary forecast question for today is how far east this
rain will get.   Strong ridging with very dry low level air remains
locked in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley by storm
system working its way up the east coast, and this will certainly
inhibit any substantial increase in lower tropospheric moisture.
Believe that the combination of shortwave energy, moisture
advection, and isentropic ascent will cause upstream showers to work
work into our far nw counties this morning, with this precip then
struggling eastward during the day and "withering on the vine" from
central MO into west central IL during the afternoon hours as
shortwave outruns the limited low level moisture return and
encounters much drier air.  Still working on fine-tuning the
details, but at this time planning to limit any mention of precip to
areas northwest of a Cuba-St Louis-Hillsboro line, with highest PoPs
just east of Kirksville.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Tonight through Saturday)

With no precip anticipated, focus thru this period will be temps.

Mdls are in good agreement with upper trof moving E of the region
overnight and swly flow at the sfc returning ahead of the next
cdfnt. This cdfnt is progd to push thru Sat morning, which may
require adjustments to temps on Sat with future updates.

With clouds expected to clear late tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance for tonight. With the thermal ridge advecting into
the region for Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Similar
trends for Fri night with swly flow continuing overnight. Sat has
some forecast challenge with fropa expected in the morning. With
full insolation expected, have trended twd the warmer guidance even
with a nwly flow.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Focus turns to precip chances on Tues.

23/00z mdls are in generally good agreement thru Tues morning, tho
the GEM is faster with the upper trof ejecting into the Plains. Have
focused PoPs on Mon night and Tues when the ECMWF/GFS have come into
better agreement. However, the 00z solns are somewhat different from
the prev 12z solns. Therefore, have still kept PoPs on the lower
side for now until a persistent signal is given.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Rain showers having a real tough time moving east due to dry air
in lower levels. That being said, I can`t rule out a sprinkle or
brief shower at KCOU or KUIN this afternoon. Otherwise, low level
moisture will be on the increase later this evening and overnight
as southerly flow continues. This should lead to some MVFR
conditions in both the ceiling and visibility category overnight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected until later tonight when MVFR ceiling will
develop and fog may reduce visibility to 5SM. Scattering of cloud
cover is expected on Friday with a continued light southerly wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 231742
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Broad N-S band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of plains
shortwave currently stretch from western IA, through nw MO, into se
KS, and the primary forecast question for today is how far east this
rain will get.   Strong ridging with very dry low level air remains
locked in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley by storm
system working its way up the east coast, and this will certainly
inhibit any substantial increase in lower tropospheric moisture.
Believe that the combination of shortwave energy, moisture
advection, and isentropic ascent will cause upstream showers to work
work into our far nw counties this morning, with this precip then
struggling eastward during the day and "withering on the vine" from
central MO into west central IL during the afternoon hours as
shortwave outruns the limited low level moisture return and
encounters much drier air.  Still working on fine-tuning the
details, but at this time planning to limit any mention of precip to
areas northwest of a Cuba-St Louis-Hillsboro line, with highest PoPs
just east of Kirksville.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Tonight through Saturday)

With no precip anticipated, focus thru this period will be temps.

Mdls are in good agreement with upper trof moving E of the region
overnight and swly flow at the sfc returning ahead of the next
cdfnt. This cdfnt is progd to push thru Sat morning, which may
require adjustments to temps on Sat with future updates.

With clouds expected to clear late tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance for tonight. With the thermal ridge advecting into
the region for Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Similar
trends for Fri night with swly flow continuing overnight. Sat has
some forecast challenge with fropa expected in the morning. With
full insolation expected, have trended twd the warmer guidance even
with a nwly flow.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Focus turns to precip chances on Tues.

23/00z mdls are in generally good agreement thru Tues morning, tho
the GEM is faster with the upper trof ejecting into the Plains. Have
focused PoPs on Mon night and Tues when the ECMWF/GFS have come into
better agreement. However, the 00z solns are somewhat different from
the prev 12z solns. Therefore, have still kept PoPs on the lower
side for now until a persistent signal is given.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Rain showers having a real tough time moving east due to dry air
in lower levels. That being said, I can`t rule out a sprinkle or
brief shower at KCOU or KUIN this afternoon. Otherwise, low level
moisture will be on the increase later this evening and overnight
as southerly flow continues. This should lead to some MVFR
conditions in both the ceiling and visibility category overnight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected until later tonight when MVFR ceiling will
develop and fog may reduce visibility to 5SM. Scattering of cloud
cover is expected on Friday with a continued light southerly wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231738
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A shortwave over the eastern Plains is producing an area of
light showers over eastern KS. The upper level trough axis moves
quickly through the region this morning, encountering less
favorable moisture as it goes. Will use a mix of high res models
for the near term precip chances which will wane through the
morning hours. The best chances for rain, albeit light, will be
over the western cwfa.

Clouds will linger a bit, then gradually clear as low level
moisture thins out late today and this evening. It`s questionable
if the partial solar eclipse will be viewable, but some areas may
have a chance since it will be low on the western horizon just
prior to sunset.

A clearing sky and fairly light winds could allow some fog to develop.
The SREF has some fairly modest probabilities for <1NM fog over
the northern cwfa, so will not include any fog for now and let day
shift reevaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A large upper level ridge moving east through the central CONUS
will bring unseasonably warm temperatures through Monday. A weak
sfc trough will move south through the cwfa Saturday, but it`s
influence on temperatures will be modest. Many areas should see
highs in the 80s this weekend, especially the western cwfa.

General guidance indicates a transition to a more zonal upper
level pattern toward the end of long term period (at least
briefly) and this lends itself to messy, somewhat low confidence
guidance by day 7. In general, a shortwave is expected to move
into the western CONUS by Sunday then shift into the High Plains
Monday. As it moves east a sfc front will move through the area
Mon night/Tue with the best overall chances for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: An area of light showers continue
to spread east across the area. These showers are weakening and
coverage is really decreasing early this afternoon. This trend
will continue and all the rain will be weaken and dissipate at the
TAF sites by the mid afternoon hours. There could be some brief
periods of sprinkles here over the the next hour or so, but with
the coverage really decreasing the chances of a TAF site getting
affect is decreasing.

MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed on the back side of this rain
and will be possible through of the afternoon at the KSGF and KJLN
TAFS. There are more questions if ceilings will drop as much at
the KBBG site.

The clouds will lift and begin to break up this evening into the
overnight hours. As skies clear overnight some light fog will be
possible early Friday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231738
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A shortwave over the eastern Plains is producing an area of
light showers over eastern KS. The upper level trough axis moves
quickly through the region this morning, encountering less
favorable moisture as it goes. Will use a mix of high res models
for the near term precip chances which will wane through the
morning hours. The best chances for rain, albeit light, will be
over the western cwfa.

Clouds will linger a bit, then gradually clear as low level
moisture thins out late today and this evening. It`s questionable
if the partial solar eclipse will be viewable, but some areas may
have a chance since it will be low on the western horizon just
prior to sunset.

A clearing sky and fairly light winds could allow some fog to develop.
The SREF has some fairly modest probabilities for <1NM fog over
the northern cwfa, so will not include any fog for now and let day
shift reevaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A large upper level ridge moving east through the central CONUS
will bring unseasonably warm temperatures through Monday. A weak
sfc trough will move south through the cwfa Saturday, but it`s
influence on temperatures will be modest. Many areas should see
highs in the 80s this weekend, especially the western cwfa.

General guidance indicates a transition to a more zonal upper
level pattern toward the end of long term period (at least
briefly) and this lends itself to messy, somewhat low confidence
guidance by day 7. In general, a shortwave is expected to move
into the western CONUS by Sunday then shift into the High Plains
Monday. As it moves east a sfc front will move through the area
Mon night/Tue with the best overall chances for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: An area of light showers continue
to spread east across the area. These showers are weakening and
coverage is really decreasing early this afternoon. This trend
will continue and all the rain will be weaken and dissipate at the
TAF sites by the mid afternoon hours. There could be some brief
periods of sprinkles here over the the next hour or so, but with
the coverage really decreasing the chances of a TAF site getting
affect is decreasing.

MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed on the back side of this rain
and will be possible through of the afternoon at the KSGF and KJLN
TAFS. There are more questions if ceilings will drop as much at
the KBBG site.

The clouds will lift and begin to break up this evening into the
overnight hours. As skies clear overnight some light fog will be
possible early Friday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.

After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.

Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Cloud cover will remain in place throughout the forecast period with
a break or two expected Thursday evening. Expecting MVFR conditions
to continue with gradual improvement behind the cold front as it
slides eastward. Favorable conditions will present a chance of minor fog
development for all terminals overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KEAX 231712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.

After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.

Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Cloud cover will remain in place throughout the forecast period with
a break or two expected Thursday evening. Expecting MVFR conditions
to continue with gradual improvement behind the cold front as it
slides eastward. Favorable conditions will present a chance of minor fog
development for all terminals overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh







000
FXUS63 KLSX 231217
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
717 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Broad N-S band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of plains
shortwave currently stretch from western IA, through nw MO, into se
KS, and the primary forecast question for today is how far east this
rain will get.   Strong ridging with very dry low level air remains
locked in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley by storm
system working its way up the east coast, and this will certainly
inhibit any substantial increase in lower tropospheric moisture.
Believe that the combination of shortwave energy, moisture
advection, and isentropic ascent will cause upstream showers to work
work into our far nw counties this morning, with this precip then
struggling eastward during the day and "withering on the vine" from
central MO into west central IL during the afternoon hours as
shortwave outruns the limited low level moisture return and
encounters much drier air.  Still working on fine-tuning the
details, but at this time planning to limit any mention of precip to
areas northwest of a Cuba-St Louis-Hillsboro line, with highest PoPs
just east of Kirksville.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Tonight through Saturday)

With no precip anticipated, focus thru this period will be temps.

Mdls are in good agreement with upper trof moving E of the region
overnight and swly flow at the sfc returning ahead of the next
cdfnt. This cdfnt is progd to push thru Sat morning, which may
require adjustments to temps on Sat with future updates.

With clouds expected to clear late tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance for tonight. With the thermal ridge advecting into
the region for Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Similar
trends for Fri night with swly flow continuing overnight. Sat has
some forecast challenge with fropa expected in the morning. With
full insolation expected, have trended twd the warmer guidance even
with a nwly flow.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Focus turns to precip chances on Tues.

23/00z mdls are in generally good agreement thru Tues morning, tho
the GEM is faster with the upper trof ejecting into the Plains. Have
focused PoPs on Mon night and Tues when the ECMWF/GFS have come into
better agreement. However, the 00z solns are somewhat different from
the prev 12z solns. Therefore, have still kept PoPs on the lower
side for now until a persistent signal is given.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Although broad area of WAA has produced some lowering of VFR
ceilings over western and northern MO, low level flow originating
from surface ridge over the Ohio Valley will continue to pump very
dry low level air (aob 3kft) into the FA throughout the day. While
increasing mid and high level moisture will lead to a general
increase in clouds from west to east during the day, this lower
level dry air should prevent ceilings from dropping below the VFR
category, and also cause the area of showers currently west of the
FA to struggle to spread east during the day. Showers have made
very little eastward progression so far this morning, and based on
this trend have opted to leave out mention of showers at all
locations at this time, and will let oncoming shift nowcast this
low-impact threat. Passage of shortwave and breakdown of the warm
advection should cause moisture to stratify and clouds to thin
heading into the evening, but subtle increase in surface dewpoints
may also lead to some predawn fog. All of the available MOS output
suggests some vsby restrictions after 06z, and have introduced
some MVFR vsbys at all location during the predawn hours with the
thinking that these trends will be fine-tuned by later shifts.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft will impact the area today and
into the evening. A few afternoon showers cannot totally be ruled
out, but at this point coverage is expected to be so spotty in the
metro area that the mention has been omitted from the forecast at
this time. However, did follow MOS trends of bringing in some MVFR
fog late tonight due to subtle increase in surface dewpoints.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 231209
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
709 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A shortwave over the eastern Plains is producing an area of
light showers over eastern KS. The upper level trough axis moves
quickly through the region this morning, encountering less
favorable moisture as it goes. Will use a mix of high res models
for the near term precip chances which will wane through the
morning hours. The best chances for rain, albeit light, will be
over the western cwfa.

Clouds will linger a bit, then gradually clear as low level
moisture thins out late today and this evening. It`s questionable
if the partial solar eclipse will be viewable, but some areas may
have a chance since it will be low on the western horizon just
prior to sunset.

A clearing sky and fairly light winds could allow some fog to develop.
The SREF has some fairly modest probabilities for <1NM fog over
the northern cwfa, so will not include any fog for now and let day
shift reevaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A large upper level ridge moving east through the central CONUS
will bring unseasonably warm temperatures through Monday. A weak
sfc trough will move south through the cwfa Saturday, but it`s
influence on temperatures will be modest. Many areas should see
highs in the 80s this weekend, especially the western cwfa.

General guidance indicates a transition to a more zonal upper
level pattern toward the end of long term period (at least
briefly) and this lends itself to messy, somewhat low confidence
guidance by day 7. In general, a shortwave is expected to move
into the western CONUS by Sunday then shift into the High Plains
Monday. As it moves east a sfc front will move through the area
Mon night/Tue with the best overall chances for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

An upper level trough was moving across the region early this
morning. This will bring cloud cover and showers to the regions
terminals through the day. Limited impacts to ceilings and
visibilities are expected as the shower activity is expected to be
scattered in nature. Generally VFR ceilings and visibilities are
anticipated.

The trough will shift east of the region by this evening and for
the overnight period. only some high level ceilings at or above
10kft will linger into Friday morning as an upper level ridge
begins to move towards the area for the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Lindenberg








000
FXUS63 KEAX 231102
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Pre-frontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.

After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.

Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Showers moved into the terminals early this morning and will persist
in and around the Kansas City sites for a few hours past sunrise.
KSTJ will likely not see any more stormy activity given current radar
trends. Otherwise, have pushed ceilings down a little based on CIGS
heights noted across eastern Kansas. Expect clouds to lift and begin
scattering out this afternoon allowing VFR conditions to prevail for
the rest of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230902
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a notable trough
crossing the Plains of Canada and the United States while an
associated weak surface front which has yet to make it into our
forecast area. Prefrontal lift has shifted into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri overnight bringing a progressive line of showers
to the region. Short range hi-res models like the HRRR and RUC point
at the current round of showers progressing slowly east this morning
along with the trough, but with the better upper level kinematics of
the trough shifting to our northeast, and weak to non-existent
surface convergence with the front, there wont be much to keep
storms going through the day. As a result, expect early morning
stormy activity to persist past sunrise but that it will likely fade
away during the afternoon hours. Only concern for the afternoon
hours is if the low clouds hold strong, providing an environment for
drizzle. Current model soundings do not look to support drizzle, so
have left it out for now. Otherwise, temperatures behind this system
are not particularly cool as highs in the 60s and 70s still look
possible across the region today.

After the trough moves through today a broad ridge will quickly move
in and dominate the weather for Friday and through the weekend. This
will result in a rebound in temperatures with our already above
normal readings continuing their run through the weekend. In fact,
expect some areas across the Missouri-Kansas border region may see
afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees over the weekend.

Next chance at stormy weather will arrive early next week, Monday
into Tuesday as a trough swings out of the mountainous west through
the Plains. Current model solutions advertise another round of
storms moving through Monday night through Tuesday. Also, with the
returning storms will come some more seasonally normal temperatures
as our highs in the 70s will retreat back into the 60s. However,
overnight low look to only range as low as the 40s, so it looks like
any frost or freeze issue might be at least another week away.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...LG








000
FXUS63 KLSX 230815
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Broad N-S band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of plains
shortwave currently stretch from western IA, through nw MO, into se
KS, and the primary forecast question for today is how far east this
rain will get.   Strong ridging with very dry low level air remains
locked in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley by storm
system working its way up the east coast, and this will certainly
inhibit any substantial increase in lower tropospheric moisture.
Believe that the combination of shortwave energy, moisture
advection, and isentropic ascent will cause upstream showers to work
work into our far nw counties this morning, with this precip then
struggling eastward during the day and "withering on the vine" from
central MO into west central IL during the afternoon hours as
shortwave outruns the limited low level moisture return and
encounters much drier air.  Still working on fine-tuning the
details, but at this time planning to limit any mention of precip to
areas northwest of a Cuba-St Louis-Hillsboro line, with highest PoPs
just east of Kirksville.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Tonight through Saturday)

With no precip anticipated, focus thru this period will be temps.

Mdls are in good agreement with upper trof moving E of the region
overnight and swly flow at the sfc returning ahead of the next
cdfnt. This cdfnt is progd to push thru Sat morning, which may
require adjustments to temps on Sat with future updates.

With clouds expected to clear late tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance for tonight. With the thermal ridge advecting into
the region for Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Similar
trends for Fri night with swly flow continuing overnight. Sat has
some forecast challenge with fropa expected in the morning. With
full insolation expected, have trended twd the warmer guidance even
with a nwly flow.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Focus turns to precip chances on Tues.

23/00z mdls are in generally good agreement thru Tues morning, tho
the GEM is faster with the upper trof ejecting into the Plains. Have
focused PoPs on Mon night and Tues when the ECMWF/GFS have come into
better agreement. However, the 00z solns are somewhat different from
the prev 12z solns. Therefore, have still kept PoPs on the lower
side for now until a persistent signal is given.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will include mainly mid-high
level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS guidance
appears a little overdone on its low level cloud forecast. Could
not rule out a little fog in SUS and CPS late tonight with only a
little cirrus cloudiness and calm surface wind. E-sely surface
winds will veer around to a sly direction Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind late tonight will gradually veer
around to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a
swly direction Thursday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  52  74  58 /  10   5   0   0
Quincy          63  50  72  53 /  20  10   0   0
Columbia        67  51  75  56 /  20   5   0   0
Jefferson City  69  51  77  55 /  20   5   0   0
Salem           65  49  71  54 /  10  10   0   0
Farmington      64  46  73  54 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KLSX 230815
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Broad N-S band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of plains
shortwave currently stretch from western IA, through nw MO, into se
KS, and the primary forecast question for today is how far east this
rain will get.   Strong ridging with very dry low level air remains
locked in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley by storm
system working its way up the east coast, and this will certainly
inhibit any substantial increase in lower tropospheric moisture.
Believe that the combination of shortwave energy, moisture
advection, and isentropic ascent will cause upstream showers to work
work into our far nw counties this morning, with this precip then
struggling eastward during the day and "withering on the vine" from
central MO into west central IL during the afternoon hours as
shortwave outruns the limited low level moisture return and
encounters much drier air.  Still working on fine-tuning the
details, but at this time planning to limit any mention of precip to
areas northwest of a Cuba-St Louis-Hillsboro line, with highest PoPs
just east of Kirksville.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Tonight through Saturday)

With no precip anticipated, focus thru this period will be temps.

Mdls are in good agreement with upper trof moving E of the region
overnight and swly flow at the sfc returning ahead of the next
cdfnt. This cdfnt is progd to push thru Sat morning, which may
require adjustments to temps on Sat with future updates.

With clouds expected to clear late tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance for tonight. With the thermal ridge advecting into
the region for Fri, have trended twd the warmer guidance. Similar
trends for Fri night with swly flow continuing overnight. Sat has
some forecast challenge with fropa expected in the morning. With
full insolation expected, have trended twd the warmer guidance even
with a nwly flow.

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Focus turns to precip chances on Tues.

23/00z mdls are in generally good agreement thru Tues morning, tho
the GEM is faster with the upper trof ejecting into the Plains. Have
focused PoPs on Mon night and Tues when the ECMWF/GFS have come into
better agreement. However, the 00z solns are somewhat different from
the prev 12z solns. Therefore, have still kept PoPs on the lower
side for now until a persistent signal is given.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will include mainly mid-high
level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS guidance
appears a little overdone on its low level cloud forecast. Could
not rule out a little fog in SUS and CPS late tonight with only a
little cirrus cloudiness and calm surface wind. E-sely surface
winds will veer around to a sly direction Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind late tonight will gradually veer
around to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a
swly direction Thursday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     65  52  74  58 /  10   5   0   0
Quincy          63  50  72  53 /  20  10   0   0
Columbia        67  51  75  56 /  20   5   0   0
Jefferson City  69  51  77  55 /  20   5   0   0
Salem           65  49  71  54 /  10  10   0   0
Farmington      64  46  73  54 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX








000
FXUS63 KSGF 230748
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A shortwave over the eastern Plains is producing an area of
light showers over eastern KS. The upper level trough axis moves
quickly through the region this morning, encountering less
favorable moisture as it goes. Will use a mix of high res models
for the near term precip chances which will wane through the
morning hours. The best chances for rain, albeit light, will be
over the western cwfa.

Clouds will linger a bit, then gradually clear as low level
moisture thins out late today and this evening. It`s questionable
if the partial solar eclipse will be viewable, but some areas may
have a chance since it will be low on the western horizon just
prior to sunset.

A clearing sky and fairly light winds could allow some fog to develop.
The SREF has some fairly modest probabilities for <1NM fog over
the northern cwfa, so will not include any fog for now and let day
shift reevaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A large upper level ridge moving east through the central CONUS
will bring unseasonably warm temperatures through Monday. A weak
sfc trough will move south through the cwfa Saturday, but it`s
influence on temperatures will be modest. Many areas should see
highs in the 80s this weekend, especially the western cwfa.

General guidance indicates a transition to a more zonal upper
level pattern toward the end of long term period (at least
briefly) and this lends itself to messy, somewhat low confidence
guidance by day 7. In general, a shortwave is expected to move
into the western CONUS by Sunday then shift into the High Plains
Monday. As it moves east a sfc front will move through the area
Mon night/Tue with the best overall chances for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible toward morning, with chances at JLN at
least worthy of VCSH mention. For BBG and SGF, while there will be
a chance, very dry air in place aloft will keep potential too low
to warrant a TAF mention at this time. If showers do affect a
terminal, vis and cigs should remain well into VFR range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg






000
FXUS63 KEAX 230452
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 230452
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Line of showers are approaching the KS/MO border but the timing of
arrival at the TAF sites have been pushed back slightly again with
this update (~07Z for MCI/MKC, a bit sooner for IXD/STJ). While VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail throughout much of this
forecast period, could see some drops to MVFR with any heavier
showers that may traverse the terminals. However, this activity is
still expected to generally remain on the lighter side. Winds will be
at their strongest overnight through the morning hours on Thursday,
backing off as the clouds and precip clear in the afternoon hours.
Southerly to southwesterly winds will dominate.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 230428
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will include mainly mid-high
level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS guidance
appears a little overdone on its low level cloud forecast. Could
not rule out a little fog in SUS and CPS late tonight with only a
little cirrus cloudiness and calm surface wind. E-sely surface
winds will veer around to a sly direction Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind late tonight will gradually veer
around to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a
swly direction Thursday night.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     45  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        47  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           39  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      39  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 230426
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...06z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for
Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western CWA with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern CWA which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won`t be a big rainmaker, even for the
western CWA where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western CWA, but no severe storms are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New ECMWF
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible toward morning, with chances at JLN at
least worthy of VCSH mention. For BBG and SGF, while there will be
a chance, very dry air in place aloft will keep potential too low
to warrant a TAF mention at this time. If showers do affect a
terminal, vis and cigs should remain well into VFR range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missouri and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions to prevail through the remainder of the evening hours
before line of showers/lowering ceilings move in around midnight.
Precip is anticipated to remain on the lighter side, leaving visbys
and ceilings currently projected to not drop below MVFR at all four
TAF sites. Low-level cloud deck and precip will exit by the morning
hours with decent clearing by the afternoon on Thursday. Southerly
winds will dominate, making a shift behind this line of precip from
the SW tomorrow. Winds could be gusty at times, especially with the
precip.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...lg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for
Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western CWA with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern CWA which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won`t be a big rainmaker, even for the
western CWA where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western CWA, but no severe storms are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New ECMWF
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible tomorrow morning, and will maintain the
PROB30 group at JLN, where the chances for rain are best (in a
relative sense). That said, copious amounts of dry air in place will
keep most locations dry, and even where showers do develop, flight
conditions should remain within VFR.

Any showers that develop during the morning will dissipate by
early afternoon, with gradually clearing skies thereafter.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 222314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for
Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western CWA with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern CWA which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won`t be a big rainmaker, even for the
western CWA where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western CWA, but no severe storms are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New ECMWF
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Some light
showers will be possible tomorrow morning, and will maintain the
PROB30 group at JLN, where the chances for rain are best (in a
relative sense). That said, copious amounts of dry air in place will
keep most locations dry, and even where showers do develop, flight
conditions should remain within VFR.

Any showers that develop during the morning will dissipate by
early afternoon, with gradually clearing skies thereafter.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222253
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will just include some mid-
high level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS
guidance appears a little overdone on its low level cloud
forecast. E-sely surface winds will veer around to a sly direction
Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind tonight will gradually veer around
to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a swly
direction Thursday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222253
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Surface ridge extending from MI southwest through southeast MO
will shift slowly southeastward this period. An upper level
disturbance and associated weakening cool front/surface trough
will move eastward through the region on Thursday. Most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will be n-nw of the taf
sites, although UIN may receive a brief shower late Thursday
morning or early afternoon. For now will just include some mid-
high level cloudiness in the tafs for Thursday. The NAM MOS
guidance appears a little overdone on its low level cloud
forecast. E-sely surface winds will veer around to a sly direction
Thursday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Mid-high level cloudiness will advect into the
STL area on Thursday. Any significant rain should remain n-nw of
STL. A light e-sely surface wind tonight will gradually veer around
to a sly direction Thursday morning, and eventually to a swly
direction Thursday evening.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222102
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM: (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Any lingering showers should be exiting the area along with the
shortwave by 00Z Friday or shortly thereafter.  Another upper level
ridge builds over the Rockies and across the Great Plains Friday
into Saturday.  Northwest flow aloft will prevail both days while a
weak cold front tries to dip into Missouri and Illinois.  The upper
ridge will move over the Midwest on Sunday allowing another high
pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley.  The western edge of
the airmass keeps edging further and further west with each model
run.  Have lowered temperatures a bit from the last couple of
forecasts, tho have tried to keep highs Sunday warmer than guidance,
and retained warmest temperatures over west/southwest sections of
the CWFA.

A full-latitude trof moves into the Great Plains Monday which will
bring broad south-southwest flow to the region and warm temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.  The surface system associated with the
trof will gain strength and affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some discrepancies with the medium range models out that far, but
high chance PoPs ahead of the cold front on Tuesday look
reasonable.  Position and speed of the system will determine whether
or not there will be thunderstorms, but a slight chance is not out
of the question.


Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 222053
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas.  This
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the
northern Plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma.  Short range models
such as the HRRR and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area.  Still
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast
area after midnight.

Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east.  A
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above
seasonal values tomorrow.  Significant warming of the lower and
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and
Friday. 850hPa temperatures approach +18C by 00Z Saturday in eastern
Kansas and western Missoui and as a result surface temperatures
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds
into the country`s mid-section. This puts the CWA under northwest
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis
across the CWA Saturday afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However,
these reminiscent summerish days won`t last long given an
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the
region. With 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast, cannot rule out a
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough.
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and
southern extent this trough will take. The EC takes a more aggressive
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across NM and
the TX panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main
trough across the Northern Plains with flow becoming more zonal by
Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Mitchell







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222029
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 222029
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The surface ridge which has been controlling our weather for the
past couple of days is drifting east and weakening slightly with
time.  Water vapor imagery is showing an elongated wave extending
from Saskatchewan all the way south into west Texas.  This wave will
continue working slowly eastward overnight and should extend from
south central Iowa southwest through eastern Oklahoma by 12Z
Thursday morning.  Operational guidance is pretty adamant that there
will be little if any precip east-southeast of Kirksville in our
area before 12Z, with precip chances ramping up during the daylight
hours Thursday morning.  Scattered to isolated showers probably
won`t get into east central Missouri, but central and northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois should see some light showers in
the morning.  Rain chances diminish Thursday afternoon as the wave
loses some potency, and drier low level air on the western side of
the stubborn surface ridge cuts into the showers.  MOS guidance
looks reasonable for both highs Thursday afternoon and lows tonight.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     46  65  53  73 /   5  20  10   5
Quincy          43  62  50  70 /  10  40  10   5
Columbia        46  67  52  75 /  10  30  10   5
Jefferson City  45  68  50  76 /  10  20  10   5
Salem           42  62  49  69 /   0  10  10   5
Farmington      40  63  48  72 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221928
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for
Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western CWA with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern CWA which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won`t be a big rainmaker, even for the
western CWA where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western CWA, but no severe storms are expected.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New ECMWF
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Surface high pressure is over
the great lakes region early this afternoon. Behind the high,
south to southeasterly winds are occurring and some scattered
cumulus clouds are spreading east into the area. These cumulus clouds
will dissipated around sunset with just scattered high clouds
over the area this evening.

Overnight into Thursday morning, mid level clouds will increase
from west to east as an upper level disturbance pushes across the
plains and into the region. A few light showers will be possible
around the Joplin area Thursday morning. A very dry airmass is
currently in place across much of the area, and this system will
not pull a lot of moisture into the area. Therefore, the rain
chances will really start to decrease as the system moves east
into the drier air closer to the Springfield and Branson areas.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221743
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 221743
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Broad surface ridge extending from the upper Great Lakes into the
Ozarks will bring the FA another sunny and dry autumn day.
Intensification of ridge over the past 24 hours has brought a bit
of cooler air to the region, which should result in afternoon
temps about 5 degrees cooler than those of yesterday.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

There is a chance of rain showers from late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as a trough swings through the northern US.
Instability still looks very limited across central and
northeastern MO, therefore no thunder is currently forecast.

Warming trend still looks on track for Friday through Sunday due
to an upper ridge building overhead. Sunday looks particularly
warm because surface winds will have turned southerly to
southwesterly around the back side of an elongated surface high.
Another low pressure system will approach the region early next
week, bringing a chance of rain from Monday through Tuesday.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as high pressure ridge remains
anchored from the Great Lakes to central Arkansas. Slight chance
that a shower may impact KUIN late tomorrow - but not confident
enough to add lower ceiling or precipitation at this time due to
dry low levels of the atmosphere.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions to continue.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A sfc ridge axis has passed east of the area with light winds from
the e-ese overnight. Looks like a pretty quiet day weather wise
with continued pleasant autumn conditions.

A shortwave over the Rockies will move into the eastern
Plains/Corn Belt region by 12z Thu. Moisture return ahead of the
system is sparse right up until the shortwave passage Thursday
morning, so deeper moisture is really not present very long while
stronger lift is present. Expect just some light and/or brief
precip, with the best overall chances and amounts over the western
and northern cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A high amplitude and somewhat progressive mid level flow pattern
will continue over the CONUS late in the week with a large upper
ridge moving from the Rockies into the Plains Fri-Sunday with
unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures well up into the
70s and some 80s seem like a good bet for a few days Fri-Mon.

Medium range guidance in general brings a shortwave and associated
sfc front into the region late Mon/Tue. The ECMWF is stronger
versus the GFS and GFS ensembles with this system, but in general
the timing is about the same (GFS just a bit slower and with less
qpf). Carrying the highest rain/tstm chances for Mon night for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Surface high pressure is over
the great lakes region early this afternoon. Behind the high,
south to southeasterly winds are occurring and some scattered
cumulus clouds are spreading east into the area. These cumulus clouds
will dissipated around sunset with just scattered high clouds
over the area this evening.

Overnight into Thursday morning, mid level clouds will increase
from west to east as an upper level disturbance pushes across the
plains and into the region. A few light showers will be possible
around the Joplin area Thursday morning. A very dry airmass is
currently in place across much of the area, and this system will
not pull a lot of moisture into the area. Therefore, the rain
chances will really start to decrease as the system moves east
into the drier air closer to the Springfield and Branson areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KSGF 221735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A sfc ridge axis has passed east of the area with light winds from
the e-ese overnight. Looks like a pretty quiet day weather wise
with continued pleasant autumn conditions.

A shortwave over the Rockies will move into the eastern
Plains/Corn Belt region by 12z Thu. Moisture return ahead of the
system is sparse right up until the shortwave passage Thursday
morning, so deeper moisture is really not present very long while
stronger lift is present. Expect just some light and/or brief
precip, with the best overall chances and amounts over the western
and northern cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A high amplitude and somewhat progressive mid level flow pattern
will continue over the CONUS late in the week with a large upper
ridge moving from the Rockies into the Plains Fri-Sunday with
unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures well up into the
70s and some 80s seem like a good bet for a few days Fri-Mon.

Medium range guidance in general brings a shortwave and associated
sfc front into the region late Mon/Tue. The ECMWF is stronger
versus the GFS and GFS ensembles with this system, but in general
the timing is about the same (GFS just a bit slower and with less
qpf). Carrying the highest rain/tstm chances for Mon night for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Surface high pressure is over
the great lakes region early this afternoon. Behind the high,
south to southeasterly winds are occurring and some scattered
cumulus clouds are spreading east into the area. These cumulus clouds
will dissipated around sunset with just scattered high clouds
over the area this evening.

Overnight into Thursday morning, mid level clouds will increase
from west to east as an upper level disturbance pushes across the
plains and into the region. A few light showers will be possible
around the Joplin area Thursday morning. A very dry airmass is
currently in place across much of the area, and this system will
not pull a lot of moisture into the area. Therefore, the rain
chances will really start to decrease as the system moves east
into the drier air closer to the Springfield and Branson areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







000
FXUS63 KEAX 221732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Mitchell







000
FXUS63 KEAX 221732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another nice day is in store for much of the region, despite the
threat of a few sprinkles during the day. Much of the focus for rain
over the next 36 hours will be on the late night through Thursday
hours as a weak front moves through. Satellite imagery shows us a
rather messy amplified pattern across the Nation with a shortwave
ridge residing across the Plains States with its axis just to our
west. A trough is noted shifting through the mountainous west and is
poised to to displace the ridge and bring some stormy weather later
tonight into Thursday as it pushes the weak cold front through our
area.

Weather for today will be rather nice, with pleasant conditions
expected into the evening hours. With the ridge in place expect
temperatures to make another run at highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
today thanks to continued southeast winds at the surface an a
southwest flow aloft. However, that self same southwest flow aloft
may induce a few clouds today with some marginal support for
sprinkles --weak isentropic lift along the saturated 295K to 300K
surfaces--. Boundary layer moisture will be a little sparse to begin
the day, but as the surface high slides off to the east higher dew
points are expected to advect in ahead of a weak cold front that
will sweep through starting Thursday morning. This will set the
region up for a late night/early morning rain event as the weak
front approaches and then sweeps through. Widespread precipitation
should begin to encroach from the west late this evening, with the
best potential for widespread rain looking to hold off to around and
after midnight. Given the progressive nature of the front, and
precipitable water values only in the 1.4 inch range, heavy flooding
rains are not anticipated. Otherwise, as storms progress east early
Thursday the potential for any severe weather looks nonexistent as
instability looks insufficient to support strong storms, but may be
enough for embedded thunderstorms through the event. Any continuing
stormy activity should exit our area Thursday afternoon.

Conditions in the wake of the weak cold front will be rather nice as
temperatures Thursday are still expected to remain above seasonally
normal values. In fact, temperatures will begin to climb in the
following days as a large ridge slowly shifts east through the
weekend. This will likely push temperatures well into the 70s over
the weekend with dry conditions prevailing.

Next chance at storms, and more seasonal temperatures, will arrive
early next work week as another shortwave trough lifts northeast across
the Plains States. Precipitation chances are a bit low confidence at
this time given the large model discrepancies, but what they do agree
on is cooler temperatures; with readings ranging from highs in the 60s
to low in the 40s. However, this does not currently look to include
temperatures cold enough to induce a frost or freeze, so it`s looking
likely that a killing frost will have to wait till November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Main challenge for the 18Z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into
the TAF sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most
recent HRRR and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Mitchell







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