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000
FXUS63 KLSX 300027
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
727 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Isolated convection has formed over the last hour in a narrow
north-south band along the Mississippi River from near Quincy to
near St Louis. Could be a bit more development over the next
several hours, and then anticipate that this activity will quickly
dissipate with loss of heating.

However, upstream shortwave currently fueling convection over
eastern MN and nw WI will be dropping south overnight, and this
may return a low shower/thunderstorm threat to areas along and
north of I-70 in the midnight-daybreak time frame.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Weak ripples in the upper level NW flow will continue a threat of
showers and a few thunderstorms into the day on Tuesday.  Have
attempted to reflect a bit of a diurnal trend to the PoPs with
afternoon heating and instability leading to a bit more of a
threat/coverage, but this trend may certainly be altered by the
arrival of the difficult to time shortwaves.   At this point I`ve
only made modest tweaks to going forecasts, and will likely have to
save any major adjustments to the nowcast time frame.

Unfortunately, it appears that several rounds of convection...and
more heavy rain...are in the offing as we head into midweek. 12z
runs are maintaining trends of previous solutions in forecasting a
slight eastward shift of the upper level trof during this time,
which willl allow baroclinicity over the plains to work back to
the east. Deep UVV is progged to develop across the FA on Tuesday
night due to strong shortwave in the NW flow sweeping into the
mid-Mississippi Valley, with resultant low level WAA producing
strong isentropic ascent over eastward advancing baroclinic zone.
Resultant strong lift and rapid eastward advection of lower
tropospheric moisture should cause elevated convection to develop
during the late evening over western MO and then grow into an MCS
which will then work its way east-southeast late Tuesday night and
early Wednesday morning. This round of convection should then be
followed by more storms late Wednesday and Wednesday night as yet
another shortwave in the NW flow propagates into the region, with
both the GFS and NAM suggesting nearly persistent WAA/theta-e
advection over the southern half of the CWA in this time frame.
Both the GFS and the NAM are progging PWATS of over 2 inches in
our area heading into midweek, so storms should be efficient rain-
makers...again... It does appear that the heaviest rainfall may be
located over the southwest or southern half of the CWA (avoiding
the critically water-logged northeast half of the FA), but in
reality no spot in our CWA needs any more wet weather. Have
mentioned this heavy rain potential in a hydrologic outlook
issued earlier this afternoon.

A chance of thunderstorms will certain carry into Thursday, but it
does appear that the barrage of shortwaves in the Tuesday night-
Wednesday night time frame...along with the convection they
produce...will cause a southward and westward displacement of the
low level baroclinicity, lessening the heavy rain threat by that time.

(Friday-Monday)

Medium range solutions maintain ridging over the western CONUS and
a mean trof over the northeast U.S.,which places mid-Mississippi
Valley in the heart of the NW flow regime throughout the period.
With shortwaves rippling through this NW flow it appears that
there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the
Friday-Monday time frame. There should be lots of dry time and
certainly don`t see any all-day rains at this point, but for now
no solution really offers any significant rain-free period.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Generally VFR through the period,
although light fog is possible overnight at KUIN due to the
additional moisture near the airport from late afternoon rainfall.
Initially northwest winds will back and become westerly overnight,
then veer again and become northwesterly during the day on
Tuesday.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Isolated SH/TS near the St. Louis
metro area will affect all 3 terminals for the first 0-2 hours of
the TAF period. SH/TS should dissipate with the loss of daytime
heating. Winds will remain northwesterly to westerly through the
period. There is an increased chance of fog tonight at any
terminal which receives rainfall during the late afternoon and
early evening hours.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 300027
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
727 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Isolated convection has formed over the last hour in a narrow
north-south band along the Mississippi River from near Quincy to
near St Louis. Could be a bit more development over the next
several hours, and then anticipate that this activity will quickly
dissipate with loss of heating.

However, upstream shortwave currently fueling convection over
eastern MN and nw WI will be dropping south overnight, and this
may return a low shower/thunderstorm threat to areas along and
north of I-70 in the midnight-daybreak time frame.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Weak ripples in the upper level NW flow will continue a threat of
showers and a few thunderstorms into the day on Tuesday.  Have
attempted to reflect a bit of a diurnal trend to the PoPs with
afternoon heating and instability leading to a bit more of a
threat/coverage, but this trend may certainly be altered by the
arrival of the difficult to time shortwaves.   At this point I`ve
only made modest tweaks to going forecasts, and will likely have to
save any major adjustments to the nowcast time frame.

Unfortunately, it appears that several rounds of convection...and
more heavy rain...are in the offing as we head into midweek. 12z
runs are maintaining trends of previous solutions in forecasting a
slight eastward shift of the upper level trof during this time,
which willl allow baroclinicity over the plains to work back to
the east. Deep UVV is progged to develop across the FA on Tuesday
night due to strong shortwave in the NW flow sweeping into the
mid-Mississippi Valley, with resultant low level WAA producing
strong isentropic ascent over eastward advancing baroclinic zone.
Resultant strong lift and rapid eastward advection of lower
tropospheric moisture should cause elevated convection to develop
during the late evening over western MO and then grow into an MCS
which will then work its way east-southeast late Tuesday night and
early Wednesday morning. This round of convection should then be
followed by more storms late Wednesday and Wednesday night as yet
another shortwave in the NW flow propagates into the region, with
both the GFS and NAM suggesting nearly persistent WAA/theta-e
advection over the southern half of the CWA in this time frame.
Both the GFS and the NAM are progging PWATS of over 2 inches in
our area heading into midweek, so storms should be efficient rain-
makers...again... It does appear that the heaviest rainfall may be
located over the southwest or southern half of the CWA (avoiding
the critically water-logged northeast half of the FA), but in
reality no spot in our CWA needs any more wet weather. Have
mentioned this heavy rain potential in a hydrologic outlook
issued earlier this afternoon.

A chance of thunderstorms will certain carry into Thursday, but it
does appear that the barrage of shortwaves in the Tuesday night-
Wednesday night time frame...along with the convection they
produce...will cause a southward and westward displacement of the
low level baroclinicity, lessening the heavy rain threat by that time.

(Friday-Monday)

Medium range solutions maintain ridging over the western CONUS and
a mean trof over the northeast U.S.,which places mid-Mississippi
Valley in the heart of the NW flow regime throughout the period.
With shortwaves rippling through this NW flow it appears that
there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the
Friday-Monday time frame. There should be lots of dry time and
certainly don`t see any all-day rains at this point, but for now
no solution really offers any significant rain-free period.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Generally VFR through the period,
although light fog is possible overnight at KUIN due to the
additional moisture near the airport from late afternoon rainfall.
Initially northwest winds will back and become westerly overnight,
then veer again and become northwesterly during the day on
Tuesday.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Isolated SH/TS near the St. Louis
metro area will affect all 3 terminals for the first 0-2 hours of
the TAF period. SH/TS should dissipate with the loss of daytime
heating. Winds will remain northwesterly to westerly through the
period. There is an increased chance of fog tonight at any
terminal which receives rainfall during the late afternoon and
early evening hours.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KSGF 292328 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Overall, not a bad start to the work week across the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeast Kansas. Upper level northwest flow should
continue through the period. Temperatures are slightly below
average, humidity is manageable and skies are clear, minus a few
fair wx CU. That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving
down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western
states. This might be enough to spark an isolated shower or
T`storm this evening, however, coverage and intensity will not be
that great.

Tomorrow will be similar to today...however, there will be an
uptick in POPs along with a higher coverage of T`storms Tuesday
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Rain/storm chances increase mid to late week. Several vort lobes
will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
With each wave, MCS potential will increase, especially when
nocturnal jet initiates. A higher concentration of upper level
energy will lead to an increase likelihood of rain and storms
Friday through Sunday. Don`t think Independence Day will be a
complete washout, however, with multiple rounds of rainfall
expected, some hydro concerns do exist given soil moisture and
elevated river/stream levels. Severe looks to be marginal at this
point, however, enough instability and shear will be present for
at least a conditional severe risk with Gusty Winds being the
primary concern.

Looking beyond the upcoming holiday weekend, it looks like the
western high will migrate eastward. Temperatures will likely
increase and become more noticeably warm compared to what we have
experienced as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light and variable tonight, shifting to the west-northwest on
Tuesday. Visible satellite continues to show smoke aloft (most
likely in the mid levels, around 15kft). This stream of smoke
aloft will persist into tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Gagan





000
FXUS63 KSGF 292328 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Overall, not a bad start to the work week across the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeast Kansas. Upper level northwest flow should
continue through the period. Temperatures are slightly below
average, humidity is manageable and skies are clear, minus a few
fair wx CU. That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving
down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western
states. This might be enough to spark an isolated shower or
T`storm this evening, however, coverage and intensity will not be
that great.

Tomorrow will be similar to today...however, there will be an
uptick in POPs along with a higher coverage of T`storms Tuesday
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Rain/storm chances increase mid to late week. Several vort lobes
will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
With each wave, MCS potential will increase, especially when
nocturnal jet initiates. A higher concentration of upper level
energy will lead to an increase likelihood of rain and storms
Friday through Sunday. Don`t think Independence Day will be a
complete washout, however, with multiple rounds of rainfall
expected, some hydro concerns do exist given soil moisture and
elevated river/stream levels. Severe looks to be marginal at this
point, however, enough instability and shear will be present for
at least a conditional severe risk with Gusty Winds being the
primary concern.

Looking beyond the upcoming holiday weekend, it looks like the
western high will migrate eastward. Temperatures will likely
increase and become more noticeably warm compared to what we have
experienced as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light and variable tonight, shifting to the west-northwest on
Tuesday. Visible satellite continues to show smoke aloft (most
likely in the mid levels, around 15kft). This stream of smoke
aloft will persist into tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Gagan





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KEAX 292318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Tonight - Tuesday:

This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.

Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the end of the forecast period.
A layer of smoke from Canadian wildfires will linger throughout the
upper-levels. Isolated convection is possible Tuesday afternoon,
though will likely remain east of the terminal sites. However, the
better forcing for activity will arrive overnight Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Tonight - Tuesday:

This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.

Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the end of the forecast period.
A layer of smoke from Canadian wildfires will linger throughout the
upper-levels. Isolated convection is possible Tuesday afternoon,
though will likely remain east of the terminal sites. However, the
better forcing for activity will arrive overnight Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Tonight - Tuesday:

This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.

Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the end of the forecast period.
A layer of smoke from Canadian wildfires will linger throughout the
upper-levels. Isolated convection is possible Tuesday afternoon,
though will likely remain east of the terminal sites. However, the
better forcing for activity will arrive overnight Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292318
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Tonight - Tuesday:

This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.

Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the end of the forecast period.
A layer of smoke from Canadian wildfires will linger throughout the
upper-levels. Isolated convection is possible Tuesday afternoon,
though will likely remain east of the terminal sites. However, the
better forcing for activity will arrive overnight Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
419 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Tonight - Tuesday:

This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.

Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
419 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Tonight - Tuesday:

This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.

Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
419 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Tonight - Tuesday:

This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.

Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 292119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
419 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A fairly active and challenging 7-day period with upper troughing
over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the Rockies leaving pronounced
northwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Tonight - Tuesday:

This looks like the quietest period with weak high pressure giving
way to a weak backdoor cold front gliding south through southern
MN/IA tonight before stalling across the CWA Tuesday morning.
Appears it will become northwest-southeast oriented from northwest
MO through central MO. Could see isolated afternoon convection near
this boundary during peak heating. A more westerly boundary layer
will yield slightly warmer temperatures with lower 90s over the
southwestern third of the CWA.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

While most of the forecast will have chance PoPs sprinkled
throughout this period currently has the highest PoPs due to model
consensus and increasing model continuity. The above mentioned cold
front will become the pathway for an MCS which is expected to form
upstream across IA as one of a plethora of shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow drops southeast. A strengthening
southwesterly 40kt+ low level jet will fuel the MCS as it tracks
along and just north of the frontal boundary. This places the
northeast 1/2 of the CWA within the most favored region. While a few
storms could become severe the more significant impact is the
unfolding potential as PWs increasing to a max of 2.25" is near the
99th percentile. As the low-level jet veers and weakens the
convection should weaken during the morning as it exits the
southeastern counties. Some spillage a bit further southwest is
possible early Wednesday morning as the low-level jet veers and
allows storms to build back to the west.

Later in the afternoon another impulse is expected to drop southeast
through eastern NE/IA which has a chance to develop convection
further north across northern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

An unsettled and uncertain period which the specifics will become
more clear as the models weed out the frontal placements. There will
likely be at least a couple of active convective periods as the CWA
will remain under northwest flow and at the mercy of the poorly
modeled embedded vorticity maxima/shortwaves. Temperatures are
likely to be below average through Independence day before warming.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292105
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
405 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Isolated convection has formed over the last hour in a narrow
north-south band along the Mississippi River from near Quincy to
near St Louis. Could be a bit more development over the next
several hours, and then anticipate that this activity will quickly
dissipate with loss of heating.

However, upstream shortwave currently fueling convection over
eastern MN and nw WI will be dropping south overnight, and this
may return a low shower/thunderstorm threat to areas along and
north of I-70 in the midnight-daybreak time frame.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Weak ripples in the upper level NW flow will continue a threat of
showers and a few thunderstorms into the day on Tuesday.  Have
attempted to reflect a bit of a diurnal trend to the PoPs with
afternoon heating and instability leading to a bit more of a
threat/coverage, but this trend may certainly be altered by the
arrival of the difficult to time shortwaves.   At this point I`ve
only made modest tweaks to going forecasts, and will likely have to
save any major adjustments to the nowcast time frame.

Unfortunately, it appears that several rounds of convection...and
more heavy rain...are in the offing as we head into midweek. 12z
runs are maintaining trends of previous solutions in forecasting a
slight eastward shift of the upper level trof during this time,
which willl allow baroclinicity over the plains to work back to
the east. Deep UVV is progged to develop across the FA on Tuesday
night due to strong shortwave in the NW flow sweeping into the
mid-Mississippi Valley, with resultant low level WAA producing
strong isentropic ascent over eastward advancing baroclinic zone.
Resultant strong lift and rapid eastward advection of lower
tropospheric moisture should cause elevated convection to develop
during the late evening over western MO and then grow into an MCS
which will then work its way east-southeast late Tuesday night and
early Wednesday morning. This round of convection should then be
followed by more storms late Wednesday and Wednesday night as yet
another shortwave in the NW flow propagates into the region, with
both the GFS and NAM suggesting nearly persistent WAA/theta-e
advection over the southern half of the CWA in this time frame.
Both the GFS and the NAM are progging PWATS of over 2 inches in
our area heading into midweek, so storms should be efficient rain-
makers...again... It does appear that the heaviest rainfall may be
located over the southwest or southern half of the CWA (avoiding
the critically water-logged northeast half of the FA), but in
reality no spot in our CWA needs any more wet weather. Have
mentioned this heavy rain potential in a hydrologic outlook
issued earlier this afternoon.

A chance of thunderstorms will certain carry into Thursday, but it
does appear that the barrage of shortwaves in the Tuesday night-
Wednesday night time frame...along with the convection they
produce...will cause a southward and westward displacement of the
low level baroclinicity, lessening the heavy rain threat by that time.

(Friday-Monday)

Medium range solutions maintain ridging over the western CONUS and
a mean trof over the northeast U.S.,which places mid-Mississippi
Valley in the heart of the NW flow regime throughout the period.
With shortwaves rippling through this NW flow it appears that
there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the
Friday-Monday time frame. There should be lots of dry time and
certainly don`t see any all-day rains at this point, but for now
no solution really offers any significant rain-free period.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to tafs at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light. Then winds to pick back up
a bit by mid morning on Tuesday from the west.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to taf at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light by 02z Tuesday. Then winds
to pick back up a bit by 15z Tuesday from the west.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     68  88  70  80 /  20  30  60  60
Quincy          66  84  66  79 /  30  30  40  50
Columbia        66  88  68  80 /  20  20  60  60
Jefferson City  66  88  69  80 /  20  20  60  60
Salem           66  84  67  79 /  20  40  40  60
Farmington      65  87  68  80 /  10  20  50  70

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292105
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
405 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Isolated convection has formed over the last hour in a narrow
north-south band along the Mississippi River from near Quincy to
near St Louis. Could be a bit more development over the next
several hours, and then anticipate that this activity will quickly
dissipate with loss of heating.

However, upstream shortwave currently fueling convection over
eastern MN and nw WI will be dropping south overnight, and this
may return a low shower/thunderstorm threat to areas along and
north of I-70 in the midnight-daybreak time frame.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Weak ripples in the upper level NW flow will continue a threat of
showers and a few thunderstorms into the day on Tuesday.  Have
attempted to reflect a bit of a diurnal trend to the PoPs with
afternoon heating and instability leading to a bit more of a
threat/coverage, but this trend may certainly be altered by the
arrival of the difficult to time shortwaves.   At this point I`ve
only made modest tweaks to going forecasts, and will likely have to
save any major adjustments to the nowcast time frame.

Unfortunately, it appears that several rounds of convection...and
more heavy rain...are in the offing as we head into midweek. 12z
runs are maintaining trends of previous solutions in forecasting a
slight eastward shift of the upper level trof during this time,
which willl allow baroclinicity over the plains to work back to
the east. Deep UVV is progged to develop across the FA on Tuesday
night due to strong shortwave in the NW flow sweeping into the
mid-Mississippi Valley, with resultant low level WAA producing
strong isentropic ascent over eastward advancing baroclinic zone.
Resultant strong lift and rapid eastward advection of lower
tropospheric moisture should cause elevated convection to develop
during the late evening over western MO and then grow into an MCS
which will then work its way east-southeast late Tuesday night and
early Wednesday morning. This round of convection should then be
followed by more storms late Wednesday and Wednesday night as yet
another shortwave in the NW flow propagates into the region, with
both the GFS and NAM suggesting nearly persistent WAA/theta-e
advection over the southern half of the CWA in this time frame.
Both the GFS and the NAM are progging PWATS of over 2 inches in
our area heading into midweek, so storms should be efficient rain-
makers...again... It does appear that the heaviest rainfall may be
located over the southwest or southern half of the CWA (avoiding
the critically water-logged northeast half of the FA), but in
reality no spot in our CWA needs any more wet weather. Have
mentioned this heavy rain potential in a hydrologic outlook
issued earlier this afternoon.

A chance of thunderstorms will certain carry into Thursday, but it
does appear that the barrage of shortwaves in the Tuesday night-
Wednesday night time frame...along with the convection they
produce...will cause a southward and westward displacement of the
low level baroclinicity, lessening the heavy rain threat by that time.

(Friday-Monday)

Medium range solutions maintain ridging over the western CONUS and
a mean trof over the northeast U.S.,which places mid-Mississippi
Valley in the heart of the NW flow regime throughout the period.
With shortwaves rippling through this NW flow it appears that
there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the
Friday-Monday time frame. There should be lots of dry time and
certainly don`t see any all-day rains at this point, but for now
no solution really offers any significant rain-free period.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to tafs at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light. Then winds to pick back up
a bit by mid morning on Tuesday from the west.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to taf at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light by 02z Tuesday. Then winds
to pick back up a bit by 15z Tuesday from the west.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     68  88  70  80 /  20  30  60  60
Quincy          66  84  66  79 /  30  30  40  50
Columbia        66  88  68  80 /  20  20  60  60
Jefferson City  66  88  69  80 /  20  20  60  60
Salem           66  84  67  79 /  20  40  40  60
Farmington      65  87  68  80 /  10  20  50  70

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292105
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
405 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Isolated convection has formed over the last hour in a narrow
north-south band along the Mississippi River from near Quincy to
near St Louis. Could be a bit more development over the next
several hours, and then anticipate that this activity will quickly
dissipate with loss of heating.

However, upstream shortwave currently fueling convection over
eastern MN and nw WI will be dropping south overnight, and this
may return a low shower/thunderstorm threat to areas along and
north of I-70 in the midnight-daybreak time frame.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Weak ripples in the upper level NW flow will continue a threat of
showers and a few thunderstorms into the day on Tuesday.  Have
attempted to reflect a bit of a diurnal trend to the PoPs with
afternoon heating and instability leading to a bit more of a
threat/coverage, but this trend may certainly be altered by the
arrival of the difficult to time shortwaves.   At this point I`ve
only made modest tweaks to going forecasts, and will likely have to
save any major adjustments to the nowcast time frame.

Unfortunately, it appears that several rounds of convection...and
more heavy rain...are in the offing as we head into midweek. 12z
runs are maintaining trends of previous solutions in forecasting a
slight eastward shift of the upper level trof during this time,
which willl allow baroclinicity over the plains to work back to
the east. Deep UVV is progged to develop across the FA on Tuesday
night due to strong shortwave in the NW flow sweeping into the
mid-Mississippi Valley, with resultant low level WAA producing
strong isentropic ascent over eastward advancing baroclinic zone.
Resultant strong lift and rapid eastward advection of lower
tropospheric moisture should cause elevated convection to develop
during the late evening over western MO and then grow into an MCS
which will then work its way east-southeast late Tuesday night and
early Wednesday morning. This round of convection should then be
followed by more storms late Wednesday and Wednesday night as yet
another shortwave in the NW flow propagates into the region, with
both the GFS and NAM suggesting nearly persistent WAA/theta-e
advection over the southern half of the CWA in this time frame.
Both the GFS and the NAM are progging PWATS of over 2 inches in
our area heading into midweek, so storms should be efficient rain-
makers...again... It does appear that the heaviest rainfall may be
located over the southwest or southern half of the CWA (avoiding
the critically water-logged northeast half of the FA), but in
reality no spot in our CWA needs any more wet weather. Have
mentioned this heavy rain potential in a hydrologic outlook
issued earlier this afternoon.

A chance of thunderstorms will certain carry into Thursday, but it
does appear that the barrage of shortwaves in the Tuesday night-
Wednesday night time frame...along with the convection they
produce...will cause a southward and westward displacement of the
low level baroclinicity, lessening the heavy rain threat by that time.

(Friday-Monday)

Medium range solutions maintain ridging over the western CONUS and
a mean trof over the northeast U.S.,which places mid-Mississippi
Valley in the heart of the NW flow regime throughout the period.
With shortwaves rippling through this NW flow it appears that
there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the
Friday-Monday time frame. There should be lots of dry time and
certainly don`t see any all-day rains at this point, but for now
no solution really offers any significant rain-free period.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to tafs at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light. Then winds to pick back up
a bit by mid morning on Tuesday from the west.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to taf at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light by 02z Tuesday. Then winds
to pick back up a bit by 15z Tuesday from the west.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     68  88  70  80 /  20  30  60  60
Quincy          66  84  66  79 /  30  30  40  50
Columbia        66  88  68  80 /  20  20  60  60
Jefferson City  66  88  69  80 /  20  20  60  60
Salem           66  84  67  79 /  20  40  40  60
Farmington      65  87  68  80 /  10  20  50  70

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 292105
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
405 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Isolated convection has formed over the last hour in a narrow
north-south band along the Mississippi River from near Quincy to
near St Louis. Could be a bit more development over the next
several hours, and then anticipate that this activity will quickly
dissipate with loss of heating.

However, upstream shortwave currently fueling convection over
eastern MN and nw WI will be dropping south overnight, and this
may return a low shower/thunderstorm threat to areas along and
north of I-70 in the midnight-daybreak time frame.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

(Tuesday-Thursday)

Weak ripples in the upper level NW flow will continue a threat of
showers and a few thunderstorms into the day on Tuesday.  Have
attempted to reflect a bit of a diurnal trend to the PoPs with
afternoon heating and instability leading to a bit more of a
threat/coverage, but this trend may certainly be altered by the
arrival of the difficult to time shortwaves.   At this point I`ve
only made modest tweaks to going forecasts, and will likely have to
save any major adjustments to the nowcast time frame.

Unfortunately, it appears that several rounds of convection...and
more heavy rain...are in the offing as we head into midweek. 12z
runs are maintaining trends of previous solutions in forecasting a
slight eastward shift of the upper level trof during this time,
which willl allow baroclinicity over the plains to work back to
the east. Deep UVV is progged to develop across the FA on Tuesday
night due to strong shortwave in the NW flow sweeping into the
mid-Mississippi Valley, with resultant low level WAA producing
strong isentropic ascent over eastward advancing baroclinic zone.
Resultant strong lift and rapid eastward advection of lower
tropospheric moisture should cause elevated convection to develop
during the late evening over western MO and then grow into an MCS
which will then work its way east-southeast late Tuesday night and
early Wednesday morning. This round of convection should then be
followed by more storms late Wednesday and Wednesday night as yet
another shortwave in the NW flow propagates into the region, with
both the GFS and NAM suggesting nearly persistent WAA/theta-e
advection over the southern half of the CWA in this time frame.
Both the GFS and the NAM are progging PWATS of over 2 inches in
our area heading into midweek, so storms should be efficient rain-
makers...again... It does appear that the heaviest rainfall may be
located over the southwest or southern half of the CWA (avoiding
the critically water-logged northeast half of the FA), but in
reality no spot in our CWA needs any more wet weather. Have
mentioned this heavy rain potential in a hydrologic outlook
issued earlier this afternoon.

A chance of thunderstorms will certain carry into Thursday, but it
does appear that the barrage of shortwaves in the Tuesday night-
Wednesday night time frame...along with the convection they
produce...will cause a southward and westward displacement of the
low level baroclinicity, lessening the heavy rain threat by that time.

(Friday-Monday)

Medium range solutions maintain ridging over the western CONUS and
a mean trof over the northeast U.S.,which places mid-Mississippi
Valley in the heart of the NW flow regime throughout the period.
With shortwaves rippling through this NW flow it appears that
there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the
Friday-Monday time frame. There should be lots of dry time and
certainly don`t see any all-day rains at this point, but for now
no solution really offers any significant rain-free period.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to tafs at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light. Then winds to pick back up
a bit by mid morning on Tuesday from the west.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to taf at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light by 02z Tuesday. Then winds
to pick back up a bit by 15z Tuesday from the west.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     68  88  70  80 /  20  30  60  60
Quincy          66  84  66  79 /  30  30  40  50
Columbia        66  88  68  80 /  20  20  60  60
Jefferson City  66  88  69  80 /  20  20  60  60
Salem           66  84  67  79 /  20  40  40  60
Farmington      65  87  68  80 /  10  20  50  70

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 292046
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Nice Weather Tuesday, then Unsettled Weather heading into the
Holiday Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Overall, not a bad start to the work week across the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeast Kansas. Upper level northwest flow should
continue through the period. Temperatures are slightly below
average, humidity is manageable and skies are clear, minus a few
fair wx CU. That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving
down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western
states. This might be enough to spark an isolated shower or
T`storm this evening, however, coverage and intensity will not be
that great.

Tomorrow will be similar to today...however, there will be an
uptick in POPs along with a higher coverage of T`storms Tuesday
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Rain/storm chances increase mid to late week. Several vort lobes
will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
With each wave, MCS potential will increase, especially when
nocturnal jet initiates. A higher concentration of upper level
energy will lead to an increase likelihood of rain and storms
Friday through Sunday. Don`t think Independence Day will be a
complete washout, however, with multiple rounds of rainfall
expected, some hydro concerns do exist given soil moisture and
elevated river/stream levels. Severe looks to be marginal at this
point, however, enough instability and shear will be present for
at least a conditional severe risk with Gusty Winds being the
primary concern.

Looking beyond the upcoming holiday weekend, it looks like the
western high will migrate eastward. Temperatures will likely
increase and become more noticeably warm compared to what we have
experienced as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry air mass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Terry









000
FXUS63 KSGF 292046
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Nice Weather Tuesday, then Unsettled Weather heading into the
Holiday Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Overall, not a bad start to the work week across the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeast Kansas. Upper level northwest flow should
continue through the period. Temperatures are slightly below
average, humidity is manageable and skies are clear, minus a few
fair wx CU. That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving
down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western
states. This might be enough to spark an isolated shower or
T`storm this evening, however, coverage and intensity will not be
that great.

Tomorrow will be similar to today...however, there will be an
uptick in POPs along with a higher coverage of T`storms Tuesday
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Rain/storm chances increase mid to late week. Several vort lobes
will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
With each wave, MCS potential will increase, especially when
nocturnal jet initiates. A higher concentration of upper level
energy will lead to an increase likelihood of rain and storms
Friday through Sunday. Don`t think Independence Day will be a
complete washout, however, with multiple rounds of rainfall
expected, some hydro concerns do exist given soil moisture and
elevated river/stream levels. Severe looks to be marginal at this
point, however, enough instability and shear will be present for
at least a conditional severe risk with Gusty Winds being the
primary concern.

Looking beyond the upcoming holiday weekend, it looks like the
western high will migrate eastward. Temperatures will likely
increase and become more noticeably warm compared to what we have
experienced as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry air mass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KSGF 292046
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Nice Weather Tuesday, then Unsettled Weather heading into the
Holiday Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Overall, not a bad start to the work week across the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeast Kansas. Upper level northwest flow should
continue through the period. Temperatures are slightly below
average, humidity is manageable and skies are clear, minus a few
fair wx CU. That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving
down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western
states. This might be enough to spark an isolated shower or
T`storm this evening, however, coverage and intensity will not be
that great.

Tomorrow will be similar to today...however, there will be an
uptick in POPs along with a higher coverage of T`storms Tuesday
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Rain/storm chances increase mid to late week. Several vort lobes
will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
With each wave, MCS potential will increase, especially when
nocturnal jet initiates. A higher concentration of upper level
energy will lead to an increase likelihood of rain and storms
Friday through Sunday. Don`t think Independence Day will be a
complete washout, however, with multiple rounds of rainfall
expected, some hydro concerns do exist given soil moisture and
elevated river/stream levels. Severe looks to be marginal at this
point, however, enough instability and shear will be present for
at least a conditional severe risk with Gusty Winds being the
primary concern.

Looking beyond the upcoming holiday weekend, it looks like the
western high will migrate eastward. Temperatures will likely
increase and become more noticeably warm compared to what we have
experienced as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry air mass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Terry









000
FXUS63 KLSX 291751
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to tafs at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light. Then winds to pick back up
a bit by mid morning on Tuesday from the west.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to taf at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light by 02z Tuesday. Then winds
to pick back up a bit by 15z Tuesday from the west.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 291751
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to tafs at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light. Then winds to pick back up
a bit by mid morning on Tuesday from the west.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to taf at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light by 02z Tuesday. Then winds
to pick back up a bit by 15z Tuesday from the west.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 291751
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to tafs at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light. Then winds to pick back up
a bit by mid morning on Tuesday from the west.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to taf at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light by 02z Tuesday. Then winds
to pick back up a bit by 15z Tuesday from the west.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





000
FXUS63 KLSX 291751
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to tafs at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light. Then winds to pick back up
a bit by mid morning on Tuesday from the west.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift
to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft
with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to
lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR
for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers
develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add
mention to taf at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to
the northwest to west and become light by 02z Tuesday. Then winds
to pick back up a bit by 15z Tuesday from the west.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291717
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry airmass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry









000
FXUS63 KSGF 291717
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry airmass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry









000
FXUS63 KSGF 291717
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry airmass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry









000
FXUS63 KSGF 291717
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry airmass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry









000
FXUS63 KSGF 291717
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry airmass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry








000
FXUS63 KSGF 291717
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry airmass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry









000
FXUS63 KLSX 291219
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
719 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Large area of with LIFR ceilings and visibilities that is already
affecting KUIN will drop southward and move into the St. Louis
metro area TAF sites between 12-14Z. Expect mixing to gradually
cause improvement to VFR at all of the TAF sites between 16-19Z.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon at KUIN and the
St. Louis metro area TAF sites, however the chance looks too low
to include in the TAFs at this point.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect LIFR ceilings and visibilities to move
into the area from the north around 13Z. These conditions will
gradually improve later this morning as mixing increases in the
atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms will be found in the area
between 18-00Z, though have not included them in the TAF at this
point as the coverage will not be great enough.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 291219
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
719 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Large area of with LIFR ceilings and visibilities that is already
affecting KUIN will drop southward and move into the St. Louis
metro area TAF sites between 12-14Z. Expect mixing to gradually
cause improvement to VFR at all of the TAF sites between 16-19Z.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon at KUIN and the
St. Louis metro area TAF sites, however the chance looks too low
to include in the TAFs at this point.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect LIFR ceilings and visibilities to move
into the area from the north around 13Z. These conditions will
gradually improve later this morning as mixing increases in the
atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms will be found in the area
between 18-00Z, though have not included them in the TAF at this
point as the coverage will not be great enough.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 291219
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
719 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Large area of with LIFR ceilings and visibilities that is already
affecting KUIN will drop southward and move into the St. Louis
metro area TAF sites between 12-14Z. Expect mixing to gradually
cause improvement to VFR at all of the TAF sites between 16-19Z.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon at KUIN and the
St. Louis metro area TAF sites, however the chance looks too low
to include in the TAFs at this point.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect LIFR ceilings and visibilities to move
into the area from the north around 13Z. These conditions will
gradually improve later this morning as mixing increases in the
atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms will be found in the area
between 18-00Z, though have not included them in the TAF at this
point as the coverage will not be great enough.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 291219
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
719 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Large area of with LIFR ceilings and visibilities that is already
affecting KUIN will drop southward and move into the St. Louis
metro area TAF sites between 12-14Z. Expect mixing to gradually
cause improvement to VFR at all of the TAF sites between 16-19Z.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon at KUIN and the
St. Louis metro area TAF sites, however the chance looks too low
to include in the TAFs at this point.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect LIFR ceilings and visibilities to move
into the area from the north around 13Z. These conditions will
gradually improve later this morning as mixing increases in the
atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms will be found in the area
between 18-00Z, though have not included them in the TAF at this
point as the coverage will not be great enough.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 291219
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
719 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Large area of with LIFR ceilings and visibilities that is already
affecting KUIN will drop southward and move into the St. Louis
metro area TAF sites between 12-14Z. Expect mixing to gradually
cause improvement to VFR at all of the TAF sites between 16-19Z.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon at KUIN and the
St. Louis metro area TAF sites, however the chance looks too low
to include in the TAFs at this point.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect LIFR ceilings and visibilities to move
into the area from the north around 13Z. These conditions will
gradually improve later this morning as mixing increases in the
atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms will be found in the area
between 18-00Z, though have not included them in the TAF at this
point as the coverage will not be great enough.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 291219
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
719 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Large area of with LIFR ceilings and visibilities that is already
affecting KUIN will drop southward and move into the St. Louis
metro area TAF sites between 12-14Z. Expect mixing to gradually
cause improvement to VFR at all of the TAF sites between 16-19Z.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon at KUIN and the
St. Louis metro area TAF sites, however the chance looks too low
to include in the TAFs at this point.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect LIFR ceilings and visibilities to move
into the area from the north around 13Z. These conditions will
gradually improve later this morning as mixing increases in the
atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms will be found in the area
between 18-00Z, though have not included them in the TAF at this
point as the coverage will not be great enough.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours across the terminals
in western Missouri. Expect a modest northwest wind through the
period also. Otherwise, wind might become slightly gusty this
afternoon with boundary layer mixing, though in general the
prevailing speed will remain under 12 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours across the terminals
in western Missouri. Expect a modest northwest wind through the
period also. Otherwise, wind might become slightly gusty this
afternoon with boundary layer mixing, though in general the
prevailing speed will remain under 12 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KEAX 291110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours across the terminals
in western Missouri. Expect a modest northwest wind through the
period also. Otherwise, wind might become slightly gusty this
afternoon with boundary layer mixing, though in general the
prevailing speed will remain under 12 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours across the terminals
in western Missouri. Expect a modest northwest wind through the
period also. Otherwise, wind might become slightly gusty this
afternoon with boundary layer mixing, though in general the
prevailing speed will remain under 12 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291107
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few mid
and upper level clouds transiting the region behind the front will
be the only clouds of note. Winds should continue to veer around
to the northwest this morning but will remain below 10 kts during
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291107
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few mid
and upper level clouds transiting the region behind the front will
be the only clouds of note. Winds should continue to veer around
to the northwest this morning but will remain below 10 kts during
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 291107
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few mid
and upper level clouds transiting the region behind the front will
be the only clouds of note. Winds should continue to veer around
to the northwest this morning but will remain below 10 kts during
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291107
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few mid
and upper level clouds transiting the region behind the front will
be the only clouds of note. Winds should continue to veer around
to the northwest this morning but will remain below 10 kts during
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291107
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few mid
and upper level clouds transiting the region behind the front will
be the only clouds of note. Winds should continue to veer around
to the northwest this morning but will remain below 10 kts during
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KSGF 291107
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few mid
and upper level clouds transiting the region behind the front will
be the only clouds of note. Winds should continue to veer around
to the northwest this morning but will remain below 10 kts during
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 291048
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
inbetween the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KLSX 290846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

At least isolated to widely scattered showers and a few storms
during the afternoon and evening will continue Tuesday.  High
temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday as the upper level
trough shifts further eastward and warmer 850 mb temperatures advect
east northeastward into our area.  Rain chances will be increasing
late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a southwesterly low level jet
brings strong low-mid level warm air advection and 850 mb moisture
convergence to central MO by 12Z Wednesday.  More cloud cover and
more widespread precipitation will lead to cooler high temperatures
on Wednesday.  A good chance of convection will continue through at
least Wednesday night as a relatively weak surface low moves
eastward through southern MO.  Much of the precipitation may shift
southeast of our forecast area on Thursday as this surface low
shifts east southeast of the region with at least weak surface
ridging extending from the northern Plains and Great Lakes region
south southwest into our area.  This may only be a brief break in
the wet pattern as both the GFS and ECMWF models bring an upper
level trough east southeastward through our area late Thursday night
through Friday night.  This upper level trough with embedded
shortwaves should lead to at least scattered showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KLSX 290648
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290648
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290648
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290648
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290648
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290648
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290648
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290648
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Weak surface low just northeast of STL will continue moving
eastward.  The thunderstorms have shifted east or south of our
forecast area, with only a few lingering showers between STL and
SLO.  Some fog has developed across west central IL and northeast MO
between UIN and HAE where the temperature has fallen into the 60s
and the wind has become light.  Will likely get at least isolated to
widely scattered showers and a few storms across our area this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak northwest flow
shortwaves moving southeastward through our area.  It appears that
the best coverage will be across northeast MO and west central and
southwest IL where there will be cooler mid level temperatures
associated with the upper level trough and hence better lapse
rates.  High temperatures today should also be a little cooler
across this area as well.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 290511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight`s storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It`s likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.


Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 290511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight`s storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It`s likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.


Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 290511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight`s storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It`s likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.


Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 290511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight`s storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It`s likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.


Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 290511
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight`s storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It`s likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.


Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Fog is possible overnight, especially at
KUIN. Some IFR to MVFR stratus was also noted on satellite imagery
rotating around the back side of a surface low, but the western
edge looks ragged and it`s not clear how long flight restrictions
would last at KUIN once the stratus reaches the terminal. The
stratus should remain well north of KCOU. Winds will become
northwesterly around the back side of a departing surface low,
then back again late in the period.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A few thunderstorms have developed
near the St. Louis metro area terminals at TAF issuance, but these
should only affect the terminals for the next 1-2 hours. Fog is
possible overnight, especially at KSUS. Initially southwesterly winds
will become westerly to northwesterly once a surface low moves
into Illinois later this morning. Diurnal cu is expected during
the day. Winds will back again late in the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 290500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 290500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 290500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

No flight restrictions anticipated for the next 24 hours. Some
isolated gusty winds are possible Monday afternoon, but shouldn`t
prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KSGF 290438
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

The threat for severe storms has diminished across southern
Missouri late this evening. Instability has decreased across the
region with the loss of daytime heating. Additionally, the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates an isothermal layer starting around 600 mb
which is likely inhibiting updraft strength. Widely scattered
convection will remain possible for a few more hours as weak
isentropic upglide interacts with a surface cold front and
remaining outflow boundaries. The threat for storms should be over
by about 3 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290438
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

The threat for severe storms has diminished across southern
Missouri late this evening. Instability has decreased across the
region with the loss of daytime heating. Additionally, the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates an isothermal layer starting around 600 mb
which is likely inhibiting updraft strength. Widely scattered
convection will remain possible for a few more hours as weak
isentropic upglide interacts with a surface cold front and
remaining outflow boundaries. The threat for storms should be over
by about 3 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290438
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

The threat for severe storms has diminished across southern
Missouri late this evening. Instability has decreased across the
region with the loss of daytime heating. Additionally, the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates an isothermal layer starting around 600 mb
which is likely inhibiting updraft strength. Widely scattered
convection will remain possible for a few more hours as weak
isentropic upglide interacts with a surface cold front and
remaining outflow boundaries. The threat for storms should be over
by about 3 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 290438
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

The threat for severe storms has diminished across southern
Missouri late this evening. Instability has decreased across the
region with the loss of daytime heating. Additionally, the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates an isothermal layer starting around 600 mb
which is likely inhibiting updraft strength. Widely scattered
convection will remain possible for a few more hours as weak
isentropic upglide interacts with a surface cold front and
remaining outflow boundaries. The threat for storms should be over
by about 3 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KEAX 282350
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Not anticipating any flight restrictions for the next 24 hours. There
could be a few winds gusts during the afternoon on Monday, but it`s
unlikely that these conditions will persist all afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KEAX 282350
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Not anticipating any flight restrictions for the next 24 hours. There
could be a few winds gusts during the afternoon on Monday, but it`s
unlikely that these conditions will persist all afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KSGF 282341
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to slow push south into the area early this
evening. Scattered storms have developed along and ahead of this
front. The farther storms push off the front the more they
weaken, which is occurring across southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri. Across central Missouri the storms are remaining
closer to the front. Scattered storms may continue to spread back
to the west were storms have moved well off the front this evening.

Instability and lift from the front are currently at their max now, and
once the sun sets instability will start to decrease along with
the coverage in storms. There are questions on how far south the
storms make it before they dissipate this evening. Areas with the
best potential will be along and north of Highway 60.

Strong mid and deep layer shear are supporting suprecell storms
which will have the potential for hail to the size of hail dollars
and 60 mph winds with the stronger storms. Marginal low level
shear is in place across central Missouri which will create a
limited tornado risk through mid evening with the more persist
supercells. Farther to the west and south low level shear
decreases and storm bases increase in height which will decrease
the tornado risk and limit it to central MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A cold front is spreading south
across the region this evening. Scattered storms are developing
along and ahead of the front. Once the sun starts to set the
storms should start to weaken and there are questions if they can
make it to the KBBG TAF site. So, have just included a mention of
thunder in KSGF and KJLN TAFS.

Overnight through Monday VFR conditions under mostly clear skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Wise







000
FXUS63 KSGF 282341
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to slow push south into the area early this
evening. Scattered storms have developed along and ahead of this
front. The farther storms push off the front the more they
weaken, which is occurring across southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri. Across central Missouri the storms are remaining
closer to the front. Scattered storms may continue to spread back
to the west were storms have moved well off the front this evening.

Instability and lift from the front are currently at their max now, and
once the sun sets instability will start to decrease along with
the coverage in storms. There are questions on how far south the
storms make it before they dissipate this evening. Areas with the
best potential will be along and north of Highway 60.

Strong mid and deep layer shear are supporting suprecell storms
which will have the potential for hail to the size of hail dollars
and 60 mph winds with the stronger storms. Marginal low level
shear is in place across central Missouri which will create a
limited tornado risk through mid evening with the more persist
supercells. Farther to the west and south low level shear
decreases and storm bases increase in height which will decrease
the tornado risk and limit it to central MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A cold front is spreading south
across the region this evening. Scattered storms are developing
along and ahead of the front. Once the sun starts to set the
storms should start to weaken and there are questions if they can
make it to the KBBG TAF site. So, have just included a mention of
thunder in KSGF and KJLN TAFS.

Overnight through Monday VFR conditions under mostly clear skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KSGF 282341
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to slow push south into the area early this
evening. Scattered storms have developed along and ahead of this
front. The farther storms push off the front the more they
weaken, which is occurring across southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri. Across central Missouri the storms are remaining
closer to the front. Scattered storms may continue to spread back
to the west were storms have moved well off the front this evening.

Instability and lift from the front are currently at their max now, and
once the sun sets instability will start to decrease along with
the coverage in storms. There are questions on how far south the
storms make it before they dissipate this evening. Areas with the
best potential will be along and north of Highway 60.

Strong mid and deep layer shear are supporting suprecell storms
which will have the potential for hail to the size of hail dollars
and 60 mph winds with the stronger storms. Marginal low level
shear is in place across central Missouri which will create a
limited tornado risk through mid evening with the more persist
supercells. Farther to the west and south low level shear
decreases and storm bases increase in height which will decrease
the tornado risk and limit it to central MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A cold front is spreading south
across the region this evening. Scattered storms are developing
along and ahead of the front. Once the sun starts to set the
storms should start to weaken and there are questions if they can
make it to the KBBG TAF site. So, have just included a mention of
thunder in KSGF and KJLN TAFS.

Overnight through Monday VFR conditions under mostly clear skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Wise








000
FXUS63 KLSX 282048
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight`s storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It`s likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.


Truett


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Expect rapid storm development in the 20-22z time frame as UVV
associated upper level shortwave over eastern IA drops south and interacts
with low level WAA of increasinginly unstable airmass over our
CWA. TAFs reflect a first estimate of timing and intensity
(primarily IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) at each location, which will be
updated once convection shows its hand. Current indications are
that convection should also shut down rapidly during the early
evening hours, with tranquil VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft and scattered showers are
anticipated early this afternoon, with increasing threat of
intense thunderstorms (IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) in the 22-00z time
frame due to features mentioned in the primary AFD discussion.
Storms should rapidly sweep southeast of the area during the early
evening hours, with VFR conditions/clear skies for the remainder
of the overnight hours.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  84  70  89 /  70  30  20  30
Quincy          64  80  65  85 /  70  30  20  30
Columbia        65  84  66  88 /  60   5  10  20
Jefferson City  65  85  67  88 /  60   5  10  10
Salem           67  82  67  83 /  60  30  20  30
Farmington      66  84  65  87 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 282048
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight`s storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It`s likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.


Truett


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Expect rapid storm development in the 20-22z time frame as UVV
associated upper level shortwave over eastern IA drops south and interacts
with low level WAA of increasinginly unstable airmass over our
CWA. TAFs reflect a first estimate of timing and intensity
(primarily IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) at each location, which will be
updated once convection shows its hand. Current indications are
that convection should also shut down rapidly during the early
evening hours, with tranquil VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft and scattered showers are
anticipated early this afternoon, with increasing threat of
intense thunderstorms (IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) in the 22-00z time
frame due to features mentioned in the primary AFD discussion.
Storms should rapidly sweep southeast of the area during the early
evening hours, with VFR conditions/clear skies for the remainder
of the overnight hours.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  84  70  89 /  70  30  20  30
Quincy          64  80  65  85 /  70  30  20  30
Columbia        65  84  66  88 /  60   5  10  20
Jefferson City  65  85  67  88 /  60   5  10  10
Salem           67  82  67  83 /  60  30  20  30
Farmington      66  84  65  87 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 282048
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight`s storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It`s likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.


Truett


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Expect rapid storm development in the 20-22z time frame as UVV
associated upper level shortwave over eastern IA drops south and interacts
with low level WAA of increasinginly unstable airmass over our
CWA. TAFs reflect a first estimate of timing and intensity
(primarily IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) at each location, which will be
updated once convection shows its hand. Current indications are
that convection should also shut down rapidly during the early
evening hours, with tranquil VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft and scattered showers are
anticipated early this afternoon, with increasing threat of
intense thunderstorms (IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) in the 22-00z time
frame due to features mentioned in the primary AFD discussion.
Storms should rapidly sweep southeast of the area during the early
evening hours, with VFR conditions/clear skies for the remainder
of the overnight hours.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  84  70  89 /  70  30  20  30
Quincy          64  80  65  85 /  70  30  20  30
Columbia        65  84  66  88 /  60   5  10  20
Jefferson City  65  85  67  88 /  60   5  10  10
Salem           67  82  67  83 /  60  30  20  30
Farmington      66  84  65  87 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 282048
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight`s storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It`s likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.


Truett


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.


(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Expect rapid storm development in the 20-22z time frame as UVV
associated upper level shortwave over eastern IA drops south and interacts
with low level WAA of increasinginly unstable airmass over our
CWA. TAFs reflect a first estimate of timing and intensity
(primarily IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) at each location, which will be
updated once convection shows its hand. Current indications are
that convection should also shut down rapidly during the early
evening hours, with tranquil VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft and scattered showers are
anticipated early this afternoon, with increasing threat of
intense thunderstorms (IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) in the 22-00z time
frame due to features mentioned in the primary AFD discussion.
Storms should rapidly sweep southeast of the area during the early
evening hours, with VFR conditions/clear skies for the remainder
of the overnight hours.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  84  70  89 /  70  30  20  30
Quincy          64  80  65  85 /  70  30  20  30
Columbia        65  84  66  88 /  60   5  10  20
Jefferson City  65  85  67  88 /  60   5  10  10
Salem           67  82  67  83 /  60  30  20  30
Farmington      66  84  65  87 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 281956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent of TSRA activity tonight will need to be addressed by aviation
operations. Best coverage and more intense convection to occur
closer with weather disturbance tracking down the Mississippi
Valley...while additional storms expected to form along weakening
cold front descending into the Ozarks. Lowest chances will be along
the Kansas and Arkansas border.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent of TSRA activity tonight will need to be addressed by aviation
operations. Best coverage and more intense convection to occur
closer with weather disturbance tracking down the Mississippi
Valley...while additional storms expected to form along weakening
cold front descending into the Ozarks. Lowest chances will be along
the Kansas and Arkansas border.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels








000
FXUS63 KSGF 281956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent of TSRA activity tonight will need to be addressed by aviation
operations. Best coverage and more intense convection to occur
closer with weather disturbance tracking down the Mississippi
Valley...while additional storms expected to form along weakening
cold front descending into the Ozarks. Lowest chances will be along
the Kansas and Arkansas border.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281922
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A surface cold front has cleared through the majority of the area
early this afternoon, precluding storm chances in all but north
central through central MO. If storms fire in those areas before the
front comes through, fast initiation of strong to severe storms is
possible. Some capping is likely present over the eastern CWA due to
morning convection, but the combined forcing of the surface front
and parent upper wave may be enough to support deep convective
initiation within the next few hours. Deep layer shear across our
east will be more than supportive of supercell structure and thus
all severe weather hazards are possible, so the limiting factor for
severe weather in our area will be instability and the timing of the
front as it exits the CWA.

Once the front clears through, generally quiet weather is expected
through Tuesday evening. A few instability showers are possible on
Monday due to the continued presence of cold air aloft and surface
heating, but showers should be isolated and little to no impact is
expected.

A shortwave trough will dive down into the area on Tuesday evening,
allowing storm chances to return throughout the forecast area. Sfc
low pressure associated with the wave will linger over central MO
through Thursday night or Friday, allowing storm chances to continue
through the end of the work week. The primary concern with this
system will be flooding due to the multiple rounds of convection
that could fire especially across the southern half of the CWA, and
the potential for severe weather continues to look relatively low.

High temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal, especially in the latter half of the week as clouds and
possible precipitation begin impacting the temperature forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to sweep southeast through the TAF sites, and
should clear through KIXD last between 1900z-1930z. Storms are not
expected to reinitiate along the front until after it passes through
the KC area, so VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Winds will veer to the northwest as the front passes and may briefly
gust to 20 kts, but will become lighter out of the NW this evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KLSX 281806
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
106 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Some adjustments to PoPs throughout the morning and into the
afternoon, as expect WAA-induced band of showers and thunderstorms
to persist and slowly weaken as it moves east. Additional
development will also occur over the CWA as increasing unstable
air over western MO advects east and interacts with rain-cooled
dome of air, while large scale ascent increases with approaching...and
strong...upper level vort max. In this NW flow regime, expect that
the intense storm development should be fairly rapid.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern Iowa will continue
to move southeast this morning and may affect areas north of I-70
as it will be supported by continued low level moisture convergence
per latest runs of the RAP. Then still expect thunderstorms to
move southeast across the area today as shortwave trough currently
over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dip down into the CWA
by 06Z this evening. This will cause strong ascent to move into
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70
by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern
and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the
upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. This
scenario is backed up by the latest 00Z run of NMM-HRRR. A few
severe thunderstorms still look possible today as MLCAPES will be
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range this afternoon and this evening with
0-6km shear values near 40kts favoring organized multicells and
some supercells.

Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with
mixing up to near 800mb.

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday and Tuesday)

Still looks like there will be a few isolated thunderstorms
redevelop on Monday over parts of northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois as the atmosphere becomes
unstable once again with another weak shortwave trough moving across
the area. Will continue with the chance PoPs on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as atmosphere will be even more unstable with
another, more notable trough moving through the area in
northwesterly flow aloft.

Highs will be well continue to be in the 80s has mixing will be in
the 800-850mb range.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

There will continued to be an amplified upper pattern over the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves digging southward into Missouri and
Illinois during the period which will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorm going during this period. Wavy front will be over the
area which will help be a focus for storm development. Rain
chances and 850mb temperatures around 15C favor below normal
temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Expect rapid storm development in the 20-22z time frame as UVV
associated upper level shortwave over eastern IA drops south and interacts
with low level WAA of increasinginly unstable airmass over our
CWA. TAFs reflect a first estimate of timing and intensity
(primarily IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) at each location, which will be
updated once convection shows its hand. Current indications are
that convection should also shut down rapidly during the early
evening hours, with tranquil VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft and scattered showers are
anticipated early this afternoon, with increasing threat of
intense thunderstorms (IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) in the 22-00z time
frame due to features mentioned in the primary AFD discussion.
Storms should rapidly sweep southeast of the area during the early
evening hours, with VFR conditions/clear skies for the remainder
of the overnight hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 281806
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
106 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Some adjustments to PoPs throughout the morning and into the
afternoon, as expect WAA-induced band of showers and thunderstorms
to persist and slowly weaken as it moves east. Additional
development will also occur over the CWA as increasing unstable
air over western MO advects east and interacts with rain-cooled
dome of air, while large scale ascent increases with approaching...and
strong...upper level vort max. In this NW flow regime, expect that
the intense storm development should be fairly rapid.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern Iowa will continue
to move southeast this morning and may affect areas north of I-70
as it will be supported by continued low level moisture convergence
per latest runs of the RAP. Then still expect thunderstorms to
move southeast across the area today as shortwave trough currently
over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dip down into the CWA
by 06Z this evening. This will cause strong ascent to move into
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70
by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern
and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the
upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. This
scenario is backed up by the latest 00Z run of NMM-HRRR. A few
severe thunderstorms still look possible today as MLCAPES will be
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range this afternoon and this evening with
0-6km shear values near 40kts favoring organized multicells and
some supercells.

Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with
mixing up to near 800mb.

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday and Tuesday)

Still looks like there will be a few isolated thunderstorms
redevelop on Monday over parts of northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois as the atmosphere becomes
unstable once again with another weak shortwave trough moving across
the area. Will continue with the chance PoPs on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as atmosphere will be even more unstable with
another, more notable trough moving through the area in
northwesterly flow aloft.

Highs will be well continue to be in the 80s has mixing will be in
the 800-850mb range.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

There will continued to be an amplified upper pattern over the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves digging southward into Missouri and
Illinois during the period which will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorm going during this period. Wavy front will be over the
area which will help be a focus for storm development. Rain
chances and 850mb temperatures around 15C favor below normal
temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Expect rapid storm development in the 20-22z time frame as UVV
associated upper level shortwave over eastern IA drops south and interacts
with low level WAA of increasinginly unstable airmass over our
CWA. TAFs reflect a first estimate of timing and intensity
(primarily IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) at each location, which will be
updated once convection shows its hand. Current indications are
that convection should also shut down rapidly during the early
evening hours, with tranquil VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft and scattered showers are
anticipated early this afternoon, with increasing threat of
intense thunderstorms (IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) in the 22-00z time
frame due to features mentioned in the primary AFD discussion.
Storms should rapidly sweep southeast of the area during the early
evening hours, with VFR conditions/clear skies for the remainder
of the overnight hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 281806
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
106 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Some adjustments to PoPs throughout the morning and into the
afternoon, as expect WAA-induced band of showers and thunderstorms
to persist and slowly weaken as it moves east. Additional
development will also occur over the CWA as increasing unstable
air over western MO advects east and interacts with rain-cooled
dome of air, while large scale ascent increases with approaching...and
strong...upper level vort max. In this NW flow regime, expect that
the intense storm development should be fairly rapid.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern Iowa will continue
to move southeast this morning and may affect areas north of I-70
as it will be supported by continued low level moisture convergence
per latest runs of the RAP. Then still expect thunderstorms to
move southeast across the area today as shortwave trough currently
over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dip down into the CWA
by 06Z this evening. This will cause strong ascent to move into
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70
by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern
and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the
upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. This
scenario is backed up by the latest 00Z run of NMM-HRRR. A few
severe thunderstorms still look possible today as MLCAPES will be
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range this afternoon and this evening with
0-6km shear values near 40kts favoring organized multicells and
some supercells.

Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with
mixing up to near 800mb.

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday and Tuesday)

Still looks like there will be a few isolated thunderstorms
redevelop on Monday over parts of northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois as the atmosphere becomes
unstable once again with another weak shortwave trough moving across
the area. Will continue with the chance PoPs on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as atmosphere will be even more unstable with
another, more notable trough moving through the area in
northwesterly flow aloft.

Highs will be well continue to be in the 80s has mixing will be in
the 800-850mb range.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

There will continued to be an amplified upper pattern over the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves digging southward into Missouri and
Illinois during the period which will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorm going during this period. Wavy front will be over the
area which will help be a focus for storm development. Rain
chances and 850mb temperatures around 15C favor below normal
temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Expect rapid storm development in the 20-22z time frame as UVV
associated upper level shortwave over eastern IA drops south and interacts
with low level WAA of increasinginly unstable airmass over our
CWA. TAFs reflect a first estimate of timing and intensity
(primarily IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) at each location, which will be
updated once convection shows its hand. Current indications are
that convection should also shut down rapidly during the early
evening hours, with tranquil VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft and scattered showers are
anticipated early this afternoon, with increasing threat of
intense thunderstorms (IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) in the 22-00z time
frame due to features mentioned in the primary AFD discussion.
Storms should rapidly sweep southeast of the area during the early
evening hours, with VFR conditions/clear skies for the remainder
of the overnight hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 281806
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
106 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Some adjustments to PoPs throughout the morning and into the
afternoon, as expect WAA-induced band of showers and thunderstorms
to persist and slowly weaken as it moves east. Additional
development will also occur over the CWA as increasing unstable
air over western MO advects east and interacts with rain-cooled
dome of air, while large scale ascent increases with approaching...and
strong...upper level vort max. In this NW flow regime, expect that
the intense storm development should be fairly rapid.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern Iowa will continue
to move southeast this morning and may affect areas north of I-70
as it will be supported by continued low level moisture convergence
per latest runs of the RAP. Then still expect thunderstorms to
move southeast across the area today as shortwave trough currently
over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dip down into the CWA
by 06Z this evening. This will cause strong ascent to move into
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70
by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern
and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the
upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. This
scenario is backed up by the latest 00Z run of NMM-HRRR. A few
severe thunderstorms still look possible today as MLCAPES will be
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range this afternoon and this evening with
0-6km shear values near 40kts favoring organized multicells and
some supercells.

Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with
mixing up to near 800mb.

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday and Tuesday)

Still looks like there will be a few isolated thunderstorms
redevelop on Monday over parts of northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois as the atmosphere becomes
unstable once again with another weak shortwave trough moving across
the area. Will continue with the chance PoPs on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as atmosphere will be even more unstable with
another, more notable trough moving through the area in
northwesterly flow aloft.

Highs will be well continue to be in the 80s has mixing will be in
the 800-850mb range.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

There will continued to be an amplified upper pattern over the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves digging southward into Missouri and
Illinois during the period which will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorm going during this period. Wavy front will be over the
area which will help be a focus for storm development. Rain
chances and 850mb temperatures around 15C favor below normal
temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Expect rapid storm development in the 20-22z time frame as UVV
associated upper level shortwave over eastern IA drops south and interacts
with low level WAA of increasinginly unstable airmass over our
CWA. TAFs reflect a first estimate of timing and intensity
(primarily IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) at each location, which will be
updated once convection shows its hand. Current indications are
that convection should also shut down rapidly during the early
evening hours, with tranquil VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft and scattered showers are
anticipated early this afternoon, with increasing threat of
intense thunderstorms (IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) in the 22-00z time
frame due to features mentioned in the primary AFD discussion.
Storms should rapidly sweep southeast of the area during the early
evening hours, with VFR conditions/clear skies for the remainder
of the overnight hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281738
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to sweep southeast through the TAF sites, and
should clear through KIXD last between 1900z-1930z. Storms are not
expected to reinitiate along the front until after it passes through
the KC area, so VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Winds will veer to the northwest as the front passes and may briefly
gust to 20 kts, but will become lighter out of the NW this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin






000
FXUS63 KEAX 281738
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to sweep southeast through the TAF sites, and
should clear through KIXD last between 1900z-1930z. Storms are not
expected to reinitiate along the front until after it passes through
the KC area, so VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Winds will veer to the northwest as the front passes and may briefly
gust to 20 kts, but will become lighter out of the NW this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent of TSRA activity tonight will need to be addressed by aviation
operations. Best coverage and more intense convection to occur
closer with weather disturbance tracking down the Mississippi
Valley...while additional storms expected to form along weakening
cold front descending into the Ozarks. Lowest chances will be along
the Kansas and Arkansas border.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Runnels






000
FXUS63 KSGF 281725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent of TSRA activity tonight will need to be addressed by aviation
operations. Best coverage and more intense convection to occur
closer with weather disturbance tracking down the Mississippi
Valley...while additional storms expected to form along weakening
cold front descending into the Ozarks. Lowest chances will be along
the Kansas and Arkansas border.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Runnels







000
FXUS63 KLSX 281720
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Some adjustments to PoPs throughout the morning and into the
afternoon, as expect WAA-induced band of showers and thunderstorms
to persist and slowly weaken as it moves east. Additional
development will also occur over the CWA as increasing unstable
air over western MO advects east and interacts with rain-cooled
dome of air, while large scale ascent increases with approaching...and
strong...upper level vort max. In this NW flow regime, expect that
the intense storm development should be fairly rapid.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern Iowa will continue
to move southeast this morning and may affect areas north of I-70
as it will be supported by continued low level moisture convergence
per latest runs of the RAP. Then still expect thunderstorms to
move southeast across the area today as shortwave trough currently
over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dip down into the CWA
by 06Z this evening. This will cause strong ascent to move into
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70
by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern
and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the
upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. This
scenario is backed up by the latest 00Z run of NMM-HRRR. A few
severe thunderstorms still look possible today as MLCAPES will be
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range this afternoon and this evening with
0-6km shear values near 40kts favoring organized multicells and
some supercells.

Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with
mixing up to near 800mb.

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday and Tuesday)

Still looks like there will be a few isolated thunderstorms
redevelop on Monday over parts of northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois as the atmosphere becomes
unstable once again with another weak shortwave trough moving across
the area. Will continue with the chance PoPs on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as atmosphere will be even more unstable with
another, more notable trough moving through the area in
northwesterly flow aloft.

Highs will be well continue to be in the 80s has mixing will be in
the 800-850mb range.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

There will continued to be an amplified upper pattern over the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves digging southward into Missouri and
Illinois during the period which will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorm going during this period. Wavy front will be over the
area which will help be a focus for storm development. Rain
chances and 850mb temperatures around 15C favor below normal
temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Fog in CPS should dissipate by 13-14Z this morning.  Showers and
thunderstorms across IA, ahead of a surface low over southwest MN
and a trailing cold front extending through western Iowa and
eastern Nebraska, may drop southeastward into UIN later this
morning. Stronger storms are expected to develop and move through
UIN this afternoon and through COU and the St Louis metro area
late this afternoon and this evening as the surface low and
trailing cold front move east southeastward through our area. The
light surface wind will become swly later this morning and gusty
this afternoon. The surface wind will veer around to a wly
direction by late tonight after the passage of the low and
trailing cold front.

Specifics for KSTL: Thunderstorms will move through STL late this
afternoon and this evening, just ahead of a cold front dropping
southeastward through our area. Mainly scattered diurnal cumulus
clouds along with a mid-high level cloud ceiling can be expected
today until the storms move into STL. The light wind will become
swly and strengthen later this morning and afternoon. The swly
surface wind will veer around to a w-nwly direction late tonight
or Monday morning after fropa.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 281720
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Some adjustments to PoPs throughout the morning and into the
afternoon, as expect WAA-induced band of showers and thunderstorms
to persist and slowly weaken as it moves east. Additional
development will also occur over the CWA as increasing unstable
air over western MO advects east and interacts with rain-cooled
dome of air, while large scale ascent increases with approaching...and
strong...upper level vort max. In this NW flow regime, expect that
the intense storm development should be fairly rapid.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern Iowa will continue
to move southeast this morning and may affect areas north of I-70
as it will be supported by continued low level moisture convergence
per latest runs of the RAP. Then still expect thunderstorms to
move southeast across the area today as shortwave trough currently
over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dip down into the CWA
by 06Z this evening. This will cause strong ascent to move into
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70
by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern
and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the
upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. This
scenario is backed up by the latest 00Z run of NMM-HRRR. A few
severe thunderstorms still look possible today as MLCAPES will be
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range this afternoon and this evening with
0-6km shear values near 40kts favoring organized multicells and
some supercells.

Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with
mixing up to near 800mb.

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday and Tuesday)

Still looks like there will be a few isolated thunderstorms
redevelop on Monday over parts of northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois as the atmosphere becomes
unstable once again with another weak shortwave trough moving across
the area. Will continue with the chance PoPs on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as atmosphere will be even more unstable with
another, more notable trough moving through the area in
northwesterly flow aloft.

Highs will be well continue to be in the 80s has mixing will be in
the 800-850mb range.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

There will continued to be an amplified upper pattern over the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves digging southward into Missouri and
Illinois during the period which will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorm going during this period. Wavy front will be over the
area which will help be a focus for storm development. Rain
chances and 850mb temperatures around 15C favor below normal
temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Fog in CPS should dissipate by 13-14Z this morning.  Showers and
thunderstorms across IA, ahead of a surface low over southwest MN
and a trailing cold front extending through western Iowa and
eastern Nebraska, may drop southeastward into UIN later this
morning. Stronger storms are expected to develop and move through
UIN this afternoon and through COU and the St Louis metro area
late this afternoon and this evening as the surface low and
trailing cold front move east southeastward through our area. The
light surface wind will become swly later this morning and gusty
this afternoon. The surface wind will veer around to a wly
direction by late tonight after the passage of the low and
trailing cold front.

Specifics for KSTL: Thunderstorms will move through STL late this
afternoon and this evening, just ahead of a cold front dropping
southeastward through our area. Mainly scattered diurnal cumulus
clouds along with a mid-high level cloud ceiling can be expected
today until the storms move into STL. The light wind will become
swly and strengthen later this morning and afternoon. The swly
surface wind will veer around to a w-nwly direction late tonight
or Monday morning after fropa.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KSGF 281132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Surface cold front currently extending from a low over
southwestern MN across east-central NE into northern KS will make
its way into the area from late this afternoon into this evening.
Ahead of the front...winds will veer from the south to southwest
and be on the increase through the morning and will produce gusts
in the 15-20 kt range this afternoon.

Expect the convection that develops later today to be scattered in
nature in the vicinity of the aerodromes and will therefore keep
the PROB30 group for KSGF/KJLN. Some storms though...especially
north and east of the KSGF aerodrome...could reach severe limits
with strong winds and large hail being the primary threats. As
for the KBBG terminal...do not expect the front to be in the
vicinity until after sunset. By this time...the lack of moisture
and instability will make it more difficult to maintain convection
and so have made no mention of convection at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Surface cold front currently extending from a low over
southwestern MN across east-central NE into northern KS will make
its way into the area from late this afternoon into this evening.
Ahead of the front...winds will veer from the south to southwest
and be on the increase through the morning and will produce gusts
in the 15-20 kt range this afternoon.

Expect the convection that develops later today to be scattered in
nature in the vicinity of the aerodromes and will therefore keep
the PROB30 group for KSGF/KJLN. Some storms though...especially
north and east of the KSGF aerodrome...could reach severe limits
with strong winds and large hail being the primary threats. As
for the KBBG terminal...do not expect the front to be in the
vicinity until after sunset. By this time...the lack of moisture
and instability will make it more difficult to maintain convection
and so have made no mention of convection at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Surface cold front currently extending from a low over
southwestern MN across east-central NE into northern KS will make
its way into the area from late this afternoon into this evening.
Ahead of the front...winds will veer from the south to southwest
and be on the increase through the morning and will produce gusts
in the 15-20 kt range this afternoon.

Expect the convection that develops later today to be scattered in
nature in the vicinity of the aerodromes and will therefore keep
the PROB30 group for KSGF/KJLN. Some storms though...especially
north and east of the KSGF aerodrome...could reach severe limits
with strong winds and large hail being the primary threats. As
for the KBBG terminal...do not expect the front to be in the
vicinity until after sunset. By this time...the lack of moisture
and instability will make it more difficult to maintain convection
and so have made no mention of convection at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Surface cold front currently extending from a low over
southwestern MN across east-central NE into northern KS will make
its way into the area from late this afternoon into this evening.
Ahead of the front...winds will veer from the south to southwest
and be on the increase through the morning and will produce gusts
in the 15-20 kt range this afternoon.

Expect the convection that develops later today to be scattered in
nature in the vicinity of the aerodromes and will therefore keep
the PROB30 group for KSGF/KJLN. Some storms though...especially
north and east of the KSGF aerodrome...could reach severe limits
with strong winds and large hail being the primary threats. As
for the KBBG terminal...do not expect the front to be in the
vicinity until after sunset. By this time...the lack of moisture
and instability will make it more difficult to maintain convection
and so have made no mention of convection at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede







000
FXUS63 KSGF 281132
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Surface cold front currently extending from a low over
southwestern MN across east-central NE into northern KS will make
its way into the area from late this afternoon into this evening.
Ahead of the front...winds will veer from the south to southwest
and be on the increase through the morning and will produce gusts
in the 15-20 kt range this afternoon.

Expect the convection that develops later today to be scattered in
nature in the vicinity of the aerodromes and will therefore keep
the PROB30 group for KSGF/KJLN. Some storms though...especially
north and east of the KSGF aerodrome...could reach severe limits
with strong winds and large hail being the primary threats. As
for the KBBG terminal...do not expect the front to be in the
vicinity until after sunset. By this time...the lack of moisture
and instability will make it more difficult to maintain convection
and so have made no mention of convection at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede






000
FXUS63 KEAX 281123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms entering northern MO may clip the KC area
through the morning but better chances will be to the east.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely early this afternoon as
a cold front comes through, but again better chances are east of the
KC area and into the Ozarks.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms entering northern MO may clip the KC area
through the morning but better chances will be to the east.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely early this afternoon as
a cold front comes through, but again better chances are east of the
KC area and into the Ozarks.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






000
FXUS63 KEAX 281123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms entering northern MO may clip the KC area
through the morning but better chances will be to the east.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely early this afternoon as
a cold front comes through, but again better chances are east of the
KC area and into the Ozarks.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms entering northern MO may clip the KC area
through the morning but better chances will be to the east.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely early this afternoon as
a cold front comes through, but again better chances are east of the
KC area and into the Ozarks.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms entering northern MO may clip the KC area
through the morning but better chances will be to the east.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely early this afternoon as
a cold front comes through, but again better chances are east of the
KC area and into the Ozarks.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KEAX 281123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Showers and thunderstorms entering northern MO may clip the KC area
through the morning but better chances will be to the east.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely early this afternoon as
a cold front comes through, but again better chances are east of the
KC area and into the Ozarks.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







000
FXUS63 KLSX 281108
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern Iowa will continue
to move southeast this morning and may affect areas north of I-70
as it will be supported by continued low level moisture convergence
per latest runs of the RAP. Then still expect thunderstorms to
move southeast across the area today as shortwave trough currently
over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dip down into the CWA
by 06Z this evening. This will cause strong ascent to move into
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70
by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern
and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the
upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. This
scenario is backed up by the latest 00Z run of NMM-HRRR. A few
severe thunderstorms still look possible today as MLCAPES will be
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range this afternoon and this evening with
0-6km shear values near 40kts favoring organized multicells and
some supercells.

Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with
mixing up to near 800mb.

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday and Tuesday)

Still looks like there will be a few isolated thunderstorms
redevelop on Monday over parts of northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois as the atmosphere becomes
unstable once again with another weak shortwave trough moving across
the area. Will continue with the chance PoPs on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as atmosphere will be even more unstable with
another, more notable trough moving through the area in
northwesterly flow aloft.

Highs will be well continue to be in the 80s has mixing will be in
the 800-850mb range.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

There will continued to be an amplified upper pattern over the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves digging southward into Missouri and
Illinois during the period which will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorm going during this period. Wavy front will be over the
area which will help be a focus for storm development. Rain
chances and 850mb temperatures around 15C favor below normal
temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Fog in CPS should dissipate by 13-14Z this morning.  Showers and
thunderstorms across IA, ahead of a surface low over southwest MN
and a trailing cold front extending through western Iowa and
eastern Nebraska, may drop southeastward into UIN later this
morning. Stronger storms are expected to develop and move through
UIN this afternoon and through COU and the St Louis metro area
late this afternoon and this evening as the surface low and
trailing cold front move east southeastward through our area. The
light surface wind will become swly later this morning and gusty
this afternoon. The surface wind will veer around to a wly
direction by late tonight after the passage of the low and
trailing cold front.

Specifics for KSTL: Thunderstorms will move through STL late this
afternoon and this evening, just ahead of a cold front dropping
southeastward through our area. Mainly scattered diurnal cumulus
clouds along with a mid-high level cloud ceiling can be expected
today until the storms move into STL. The light wind will become
swly and strengthen later this morning and afternoon. The swly
surface wind will veer around to a w-nwly direction late tonight
or Monday morning after fropa.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 281108
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern Iowa will continue
to move southeast this morning and may affect areas north of I-70
as it will be supported by continued low level moisture convergence
per latest runs of the RAP. Then still expect thunderstorms to
move southeast across the area today as shortwave trough currently
over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dip down into the CWA
by 06Z this evening. This will cause strong ascent to move into
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70
by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern
and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the
upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. This
scenario is backed up by the latest 00Z run of NMM-HRRR. A few
severe thunderstorms still look possible today as MLCAPES will be
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range this afternoon and this evening with
0-6km shear values near 40kts favoring organized multicells and
some supercells.

Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with
mixing up to near 800mb.

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday and Tuesday)

Still looks like there will be a few isolated thunderstorms
redevelop on Monday over parts of northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois as the atmosphere becomes
unstable once again with another weak shortwave trough moving across
the area. Will continue with the chance PoPs on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as atmosphere will be even more unstable with
another, more notable trough moving through the area in
northwesterly flow aloft.

Highs will be well continue to be in the 80s has mixing will be in
the 800-850mb range.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

There will continued to be an amplified upper pattern over the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves digging southward into Missouri and
Illinois during the period which will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorm going during this period. Wavy front will be over the
area which will help be a focus for storm development. Rain
chances and 850mb temperatures around 15C favor below normal
temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Fog in CPS should dissipate by 13-14Z this morning.  Showers and
thunderstorms across IA, ahead of a surface low over southwest MN
and a trailing cold front extending through western Iowa and
eastern Nebraska, may drop southeastward into UIN later this
morning. Stronger storms are expected to develop and move through
UIN this afternoon and through COU and the St Louis metro area
late this afternoon and this evening as the surface low and
trailing cold front move east southeastward through our area. The
light surface wind will become swly later this morning and gusty
this afternoon. The surface wind will veer around to a wly
direction by late tonight after the passage of the low and
trailing cold front.

Specifics for KSTL: Thunderstorms will move through STL late this
afternoon and this evening, just ahead of a cold front dropping
southeastward through our area. Mainly scattered diurnal cumulus
clouds along with a mid-high level cloud ceiling can be expected
today until the storms move into STL. The light wind will become
swly and strengthen later this morning and afternoon. The swly
surface wind will veer around to a w-nwly direction late tonight
or Monday morning after fropa.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280821
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
321 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern Iowa will continue
to move southeast this morning and may affect areas north of I-70
as it will be supported by continued low level moisture convergence
per latest runs of the RAP. Then still expect thunderstorms to
move southeast across the area today as shortwave trough currently
over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dip down into the CWA
by 06Z this evening. This will cause strong ascent to move into
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70
by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern
and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the
upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. This
scenario is backed up by the latest 00Z run of NMM-HRRR. A few
severe thunderstorms still look possible today as MLCAPES will be
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range this afternoon and this evening with
0-6km shear values near 40kts favoring organized multicells and
some supercells.

Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with
mixing up to near 800mb.

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday and Tuesday)

Still looks like there will be a few isolated thunderstorms
redevelop on Monday over parts of northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois as the atmosphere becomes
unstable once again with another weak shortwave trough moving across
the area. Will continue with the chance PoPs on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as atmosphere will be even more unstable with
another, more notable trough moving through the area in
northwesterly flow aloft.

Highs will be well continue to be in the 80s has mixing will be in
the 800-850mb range.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

There will continued to be an amplified upper pattern over the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves digging southward into Missouri and
Illinois during the period which will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorm going during this period. Wavy front will be over the
area which will help be a focus for storm development. Rain
chances and 850mb temperatures around 15C favor below normal
temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight. Winds will continue to back ahead of an approaching low
pressure system, eventually becoming southwesterly and gusting to
around 20kts after 16z. Scattered SH/TS could affect KUIN before
18z, but precipitation chances at all TAF sites are higher after
21z because of favorable diurnal heating.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight, especially at KSUS where moderate rainfall earlier this
evening greatly increased the low-level moisture compared to
nearby TAF sites. T-Td spreads were high enough at KSTL at TAF
issuance to preclude a fog mention attm. Winds will continue
backing overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Expect scattered SH/TS to affect St. Louis metro area TAF sites
later this afternoon and into the evening.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 280821
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
321 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern Iowa will continue
to move southeast this morning and may affect areas north of I-70
as it will be supported by continued low level moisture convergence
per latest runs of the RAP. Then still expect thunderstorms to
move southeast across the area today as shortwave trough currently
over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas will dip down into the CWA
by 06Z this evening. This will cause strong ascent to move into
the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms
should develop ahead of cold front this afternoon over northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois and move southeast to near I-70
by this evening. These thunderstorms will move out of the eastern
and southern parts of the CWA between 06-12Z tonight when the
upper trough and the low level forcing shifts out of the CWA. This
scenario is backed up by the latest 00Z run of NMM-HRRR. A few
severe thunderstorms still look possible today as MLCAPES will be
in the 1000-2000 J/kg range this afternoon and this evening with
0-6km shear values near 40kts favoring organized multicells and
some supercells.

Temperatures will be warmer today ahead of the cold front with
mixing up to near 800mb.

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday and Tuesday)

Still looks like there will be a few isolated thunderstorms
redevelop on Monday over parts of northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois as the atmosphere becomes
unstable once again with another weak shortwave trough moving across
the area. Will continue with the chance PoPs on Tuesday and
Tuesday night as atmosphere will be even more unstable with
another, more notable trough moving through the area in
northwesterly flow aloft.

Highs will be well continue to be in the 80s has mixing will be in
the 800-850mb range.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

There will continued to be an amplified upper pattern over the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves digging southward into Missouri and
Illinois during the period which will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorm going during this period. Wavy front will be over the
area which will help be a focus for storm development. Rain
chances and 850mb temperatures around 15C favor below normal
temperatures.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight. Winds will continue to back ahead of an approaching low
pressure system, eventually becoming southwesterly and gusting to
around 20kts after 16z. Scattered SH/TS could affect KUIN before
18z, but precipitation chances at all TAF sites are higher after
21z because of favorable diurnal heating.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight, especially at KSUS where moderate rainfall earlier this
evening greatly increased the low-level moisture compared to
nearby TAF sites. T-Td spreads were high enough at KSTL at TAF
issuance to preclude a fog mention attm. Winds will continue
backing overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Expect scattered SH/TS to affect St. Louis metro area TAF sites
later this afternoon and into the evening.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280812
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280812
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
312 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Shortwave dropping into the Upper Midwest this morning will send
scattered showers and storms into northern Missouri through the
morning and early afternoon. This feature will also be accompanied by
a cold front which will slide into northern MO during the early
afternoon and into the Ozarks through the evening. While most of this
morning`s precipitation associated with the shortwave will spread
into central/eastern MO and into Illinois, additional storms will
likely develop along the front into central and western MO during the
afternoon especially south of a KC to Kirksville line. Some of these
storms could take the form of supercells given moderate shear values
perpendicular to the cold front and MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.
Limited moisture return will keep LCL heights a bit high so that
large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns, although a
tornado or two isn`t out of the realm of possibility particularly
across central and eastern MO where low-level shear will be higher.

Storms will exit the region through the mid-evening hours as the
front pushes into the Ozarks. Weather behind the front should be
generally dry for Monday and Tuesday, although there could be a few
isolated showers or storms mainly over northern/northeast Missouri
either day with a few subtle waves passing through. A stronger wave
will drop through the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will
bring a better chance for more widespread storms. May need to watch
for some potentially strong storms or heavy rain with this system,
but the highest chances for precipitation look to be just north and
east of our area closer to the main upper wave.

Broad northwesterly upper flow will continue through the end of the
week, and could bring thunderstorm chances at any time with the
passage of any weak impulses in this flow pattern. At this time most
models are indicating dry weather for the 4th, but this could easily
change in this pattern.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KSGF 280737
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Some light fog will again be possible late tonight around Branson,
however the prospects for dense fog look low. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through Sunday. An approaching cold front
will then produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday evening across portions of southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280737
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Some light fog will again be possible late tonight around Branson,
however the prospects for dense fog look low. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through Sunday. An approaching cold front
will then produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday evening across portions of southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280737
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Some light fog will again be possible late tonight around Branson,
however the prospects for dense fog look low. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through Sunday. An approaching cold front
will then produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday evening across portions of southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280737
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A somewhat atypical and interesting setup is in the works for
today and tonight. Strong short wave energy will dig southeast
across the western Great Lakes today and should be located over
northern Indiana by early Monday morning. As this wave digs, a
surface low and trailing cold front will also move southeast
across the region. This front will enter northwestern Missouri by
early this afternoon and will approach central Missouri late this
afternoon.

We may see some initial widely scattered thunderstorm development
across northern Missouri this morning with some of this activity
possibly reaching central Missouri by midday. Confidence is then
high that additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop along that front and shift into central Missouri late this
afternoon. This activity will then continue to spread southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks into this evening before diminishing
from northwest to southeast later tonight.

While low level moisture quality is not that impressive,
northwesterly flow patterns almost always seem to
compensate/overachieve when it comes to convection during the warm
season. The setup actually appears favorable for splitting
supercells given deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and straight
hodographs (especially above 1 km agl). Large hail will be the
primary threat with any supercells. At this time, lifted
condensation level (LCL) heights appear a bit too high with low
level shear a bit on the low side for supercell tornado potential
across central Missouri. These parameters will perhaps be a bit
more favorable across northeast Missouri. We`ll keep close tabs on
these parameters throughout the day.

Convective coverage may then become numerous enough for some
upscale growth into line segments or small clusters this evening.
Low level shear vectors (0-3 km layer) would be supportive of
mesovortex potential for any line segments surging southeast. Any
line segments will carry a threat for damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A strong upper level ridge will remain parked over the western
U.S. into the upcoming 4th of July weekend. This will keep the
Missouri Ozarks in a northwesterly flow aloft and an unsettled
weather pattern.

We may see an initial break in thunderstorm potential on Monday as
that front slides to our south. The setup then looks
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms as we get into Tuesday
night as a short wave trough approaches from the northwest and
induces strong low level isentropic upglide.

Global models then indicate a continued parade of short wave
energy diving southeast across the central U.S. through the end
of the week with a low level theta-e boundary waffling back and
forth. This is a good setup for nocturnal mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs) sliding southeast across the region. The setup will
also be favorable for daytime thunderstorm potential as low level
moisture quality improves in conjunction with mid-level
temperatures remaining cool enough to overcome capping inversions.
We do want to emphasize that we are not looking at all day
washouts by any means.

Temperatures this week will generally be near normal but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorm coverage and timing. It will
certainly be more humid than what we are seeing this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Some light fog will again be possible late tonight around Branson,
however the prospects for dense fog look low. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through Sunday. An approaching cold front
will then produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday evening across portions of southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KSGF 280519
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KSGF free of echoes though there remains a slight chance for
isolated TSRA over the eastern Ozarks through late afternoon as a
short wave descends southward into the upper trough over the Ohio
Valley.

Next and more potent shortwave to descend down back side of ridge
tomorrow afternoon. While modeled sounding lapse rates not showing
that much of an improvement...believe low level warm advection to
exceed guidance leading to better instability and at least
scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into early Monday over the
eastern Ozarks. Some question over the degree of severe threat with
0-6 KM bulk shear barely reaching 40 knots.

Warm air advection to make high temperatures a challenge and have
trended above the upper end of guidance tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There will be break in the parade of waves descending the western
trough leading to quiet though seasonably warm weather Monday into
Tuesday. A diffuse wave will generate scattered convection Tuesday
night into Wednesday...with the associated trailing frontal boundary
generating additional storm chances during the later half of the
work week as it hang ups across the region due to the western upper
ridge breaking down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Some light fog will again be possible late tonight around Branson,
however the prospects for dense fog look low. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through Sunday. An approaching cold front
will then produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday evening across portions of southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann





000
FXUS63 KSGF 280519
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KSGF free of echoes though there remains a slight chance for
isolated TSRA over the eastern Ozarks through late afternoon as a
short wave descends southward into the upper trough over the Ohio
Valley.

Next and more potent shortwave to descend down back side of ridge
tomorrow afternoon. While modeled sounding lapse rates not showing
that much of an improvement...believe low level warm advection to
exceed guidance leading to better instability and at least
scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into early Monday over the
eastern Ozarks. Some question over the degree of severe threat with
0-6 KM bulk shear barely reaching 40 knots.

Warm air advection to make high temperatures a challenge and have
trended above the upper end of guidance tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There will be break in the parade of waves descending the western
trough leading to quiet though seasonably warm weather Monday into
Tuesday. A diffuse wave will generate scattered convection Tuesday
night into Wednesday...with the associated trailing frontal boundary
generating additional storm chances during the later half of the
work week as it hang ups across the region due to the western upper
ridge breaking down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Some light fog will again be possible late tonight around Branson,
however the prospects for dense fog look low. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through Sunday. An approaching cold front
will then produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday evening across portions of southern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280502
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1202 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Most of the diurnally driven cu and showers have dissipated expect
for a few stragglers across the eastern Ozarks in Iron and Reynolds
County. These too should dissipate within the next hour or so.
Otherwise it appears to be a "cool" night with below average
temperatures. Clouds will begin to spread into northern sections
of the CWA overnight in advance of the next upstream northwest
flow short, however light winds and lots of clear time should
allow for some patchy radiational fog areawide.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Sfc ridge will continue to build into the region this eve. Ridge
axis is progd to move swd thru the after Midnight tonight, bringing
swly winds to nrn and wrn portions of the CWA late tonight. Expect
high to possible mid level clouds to move into nrn portions of the
CWA near sunrise.

With the winds becoming swly late tonight, have trended slightly
warmer for these areas. For other areas, have trended aob the cooler
guidance for tonight, esp for ern Ozarks regions, with winds
becoming light under a clear sky. With much cooler temps expected,
can not rule out FG development overnight. The deep mixing today
will help cool dewpoints which may help prevent FG development.

Otherwise, expect SHRA that develops this afternoon to dissipate
quickly with sunset with the remainder of tonight dry.


Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

(Sunday through Sunday Night)

Complex of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a potent northwest flow
vort max is expected to be just northwest of the forecast area early
Sunday morning. This area is expected to head into portions of
northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois around midday.
Not sure whether or not area of showers/storms will sustain itself
through the morning hours but believe the area might as the
low-level moist/warm advection sustains itself. In any
event...strengthening of this complex...if it sustains
itself...would be likely along with new development downstream.
Supercells will be favored convective mode due to favorable
deep-layer shear (35-45 knots) along with a sufficiently unstable
airmass. As SPC noted in their discussion...NAM dewpoints and
therefore progged instability seems highly suspect but GFS MLCAPE
values would still support supercells. All forms of severe weather
will be possible late afternoon/early evening on Sunday though large
hail does seem like the predominate threat due to steep lapse rates
aloft. However...damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes also
possible. Highest threat of severe weather will be during the
afternoon hours across central and northeastern Missouri.

Initial supercells may collide/congeal into clusters by early
evening with damaging winds becoming more of a threat. Storms are
expected to gradually weaken as instability wanes by late evening.
By 0600 UTC, front will be nearly bisecting the CWA with chance PoPs
from 6-12 UTC.

Regarding high temperatures for tomorrow...went near or slightly
above warmer MET guidance as NW flow/clipper type disturbances are
notoriously known for yielding highs warmer than guidance south and
west of the track of the surface low.


(Monday through Saturday)

Quieter weather looks to be on tap for early next week with only a
slight chance of showers/storms Monday through Tuesday mainly east
of the Mississippi River. Another active period of weather looks in
store late Tuesday night through Thursday. Best chances of showers
and storms currently look to be on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another shortwave embedded within northwest flow transverses the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Still some uncertainty of course with
regards to track/timing...but unfortunately this appears to be
another event which may produce some widespread rain amounts of a
couple of inches and exacerbate ongoing river flooding.

Temperatures will start off near seasonal norms Monday and Tuesday
due to deep mixing and westerly surface flow. Leaned above warmest
guidance each day due to these factors. By Wednesday and
Thursday...clouds/precip chances should yield below normal highs and
near normal low temperatures.

NW flow aloft looks to continue heading into the 4th of July weekend
with continued chances of showers/storms along with slightly below
normal highs.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight. Winds will continue to back ahead of an approaching low
pressure system, eventually becoming southwesterly and gusting to
around 20kts after 16z. Scattered SH/TS could affect KUIN before
18z, but precipitation chances at all TAF sites are higher after
21z because of favorable diurnal heating.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight, especially at KSUS where moderate rainfall earlier this
evening greatly increased the low-level moisture compared to
nearby TAF sites. T-Td spreads were high enough at KSTL at TAF
issuance to preclude a fog mention attm. Winds will continue
backing overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Expect scattered SH/TS to affect St. Louis metro area TAF sites
later this afternoon and into the evening.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280502
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1202 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Most of the diurnally driven cu and showers have dissipated expect
for a few stragglers across the eastern Ozarks in Iron and Reynolds
County. These too should dissipate within the next hour or so.
Otherwise it appears to be a "cool" night with below average
temperatures. Clouds will begin to spread into northern sections
of the CWA overnight in advance of the next upstream northwest
flow short, however light winds and lots of clear time should
allow for some patchy radiational fog areawide.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Sfc ridge will continue to build into the region this eve. Ridge
axis is progd to move swd thru the after Midnight tonight, bringing
swly winds to nrn and wrn portions of the CWA late tonight. Expect
high to possible mid level clouds to move into nrn portions of the
CWA near sunrise.

With the winds becoming swly late tonight, have trended slightly
warmer for these areas. For other areas, have trended aob the cooler
guidance for tonight, esp for ern Ozarks regions, with winds
becoming light under a clear sky. With much cooler temps expected,
can not rule out FG development overnight. The deep mixing today
will help cool dewpoints which may help prevent FG development.

Otherwise, expect SHRA that develops this afternoon to dissipate
quickly with sunset with the remainder of tonight dry.


Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

(Sunday through Sunday Night)

Complex of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a potent northwest flow
vort max is expected to be just northwest of the forecast area early
Sunday morning. This area is expected to head into portions of
northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois around midday.
Not sure whether or not area of showers/storms will sustain itself
through the morning hours but believe the area might as the
low-level moist/warm advection sustains itself. In any
event...strengthening of this complex...if it sustains
itself...would be likely along with new development downstream.
Supercells will be favored convective mode due to favorable
deep-layer shear (35-45 knots) along with a sufficiently unstable
airmass. As SPC noted in their discussion...NAM dewpoints and
therefore progged instability seems highly suspect but GFS MLCAPE
values would still support supercells. All forms of severe weather
will be possible late afternoon/early evening on Sunday though large
hail does seem like the predominate threat due to steep lapse rates
aloft. However...damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes also
possible. Highest threat of severe weather will be during the
afternoon hours across central and northeastern Missouri.

Initial supercells may collide/congeal into clusters by early
evening with damaging winds becoming more of a threat. Storms are
expected to gradually weaken as instability wanes by late evening.
By 0600 UTC, front will be nearly bisecting the CWA with chance PoPs
from 6-12 UTC.

Regarding high temperatures for tomorrow...went near or slightly
above warmer MET guidance as NW flow/clipper type disturbances are
notoriously known for yielding highs warmer than guidance south and
west of the track of the surface low.


(Monday through Saturday)

Quieter weather looks to be on tap for early next week with only a
slight chance of showers/storms Monday through Tuesday mainly east
of the Mississippi River. Another active period of weather looks in
store late Tuesday night through Thursday. Best chances of showers
and storms currently look to be on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another shortwave embedded within northwest flow transverses the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Still some uncertainty of course with
regards to track/timing...but unfortunately this appears to be
another event which may produce some widespread rain amounts of a
couple of inches and exacerbate ongoing river flooding.

Temperatures will start off near seasonal norms Monday and Tuesday
due to deep mixing and westerly surface flow. Leaned above warmest
guidance each day due to these factors. By Wednesday and
Thursday...clouds/precip chances should yield below normal highs and
near normal low temperatures.

NW flow aloft looks to continue heading into the 4th of July weekend
with continued chances of showers/storms along with slightly below
normal highs.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight. Winds will continue to back ahead of an approaching low
pressure system, eventually becoming southwesterly and gusting to
around 20kts after 16z. Scattered SH/TS could affect KUIN before
18z, but precipitation chances at all TAF sites are higher after
21z because of favorable diurnal heating.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight, especially at KSUS where moderate rainfall earlier this
evening greatly increased the low-level moisture compared to
nearby TAF sites. T-Td spreads were high enough at KSTL at TAF
issuance to preclude a fog mention attm. Winds will continue
backing overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Expect scattered SH/TS to affect St. Louis metro area TAF sites
later this afternoon and into the evening.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






000
FXUS63 KLSX 280502
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1202 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Most of the diurnally driven cu and showers have dissipated expect
for a few stragglers across the eastern Ozarks in Iron and Reynolds
County. These too should dissipate within the next hour or so.
Otherwise it appears to be a "cool" night with below average
temperatures. Clouds will begin to spread into northern sections
of the CWA overnight in advance of the next upstream northwest
flow short, however light winds and lots of clear time should
allow for some patchy radiational fog areawide.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Sfc ridge will continue to build into the region this eve. Ridge
axis is progd to move swd thru the after Midnight tonight, bringing
swly winds to nrn and wrn portions of the CWA late tonight. Expect
high to possible mid level clouds to move into nrn portions of the
CWA near sunrise.

With the winds becoming swly late tonight, have trended slightly
warmer for these areas. For other areas, have trended aob the cooler
guidance for tonight, esp for ern Ozarks regions, with winds
becoming light under a clear sky. With much cooler temps expected,
can not rule out FG development overnight. The deep mixing today
will help cool dewpoints which may help prevent FG development.

Otherwise, expect SHRA that develops this afternoon to dissipate
quickly with sunset with the remainder of tonight dry.


Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

(Sunday through Sunday Night)

Complex of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a potent northwest flow
vort max is expected to be just northwest of the forecast area early
Sunday morning. This area is expected to head into portions of
northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois around midday.
Not sure whether or not area of showers/storms will sustain itself
through the morning hours but believe the area might as the
low-level moist/warm advection sustains itself. In any
event...strengthening of this complex...if it sustains
itself...would be likely along with new development downstream.
Supercells will be favored convective mode due to favorable
deep-layer shear (35-45 knots) along with a sufficiently unstable
airmass. As SPC noted in their discussion...NAM dewpoints and
therefore progged instability seems highly suspect but GFS MLCAPE
values would still support supercells. All forms of severe weather
will be possible late afternoon/early evening on Sunday though large
hail does seem like the predominate threat due to steep lapse rates
aloft. However...damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes also
possible. Highest threat of severe weather will be during the
afternoon hours across central and northeastern Missouri.

Initial supercells may collide/congeal into clusters by early
evening with damaging winds becoming more of a threat. Storms are
expected to gradually weaken as instability wanes by late evening.
By 0600 UTC, front will be nearly bisecting the CWA with chance PoPs
from 6-12 UTC.

Regarding high temperatures for tomorrow...went near or slightly
above warmer MET guidance as NW flow/clipper type disturbances are
notoriously known for yielding highs warmer than guidance south and
west of the track of the surface low.


(Monday through Saturday)

Quieter weather looks to be on tap for early next week with only a
slight chance of showers/storms Monday through Tuesday mainly east
of the Mississippi River. Another active period of weather looks in
store late Tuesday night through Thursday. Best chances of showers
and storms currently look to be on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another shortwave embedded within northwest flow transverses the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Still some uncertainty of course with
regards to track/timing...but unfortunately this appears to be
another event which may produce some widespread rain amounts of a
couple of inches and exacerbate ongoing river flooding.

Temperatures will start off near seasonal norms Monday and Tuesday
due to deep mixing and westerly surface flow. Leaned above warmest
guidance each day due to these factors. By Wednesday and
Thursday...clouds/precip chances should yield below normal highs and
near normal low temperatures.

NW flow aloft looks to continue heading into the 4th of July weekend
with continued chances of showers/storms along with slightly below
normal highs.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight. Winds will continue to back ahead of an approaching low
pressure system, eventually becoming southwesterly and gusting to
around 20kts after 16z. Scattered SH/TS could affect KUIN before
18z, but precipitation chances at all TAF sites are higher after
21z because of favorable diurnal heating.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight, especially at KSUS where moderate rainfall earlier this
evening greatly increased the low-level moisture compared to
nearby TAF sites. T-Td spreads were high enough at KSTL at TAF
issuance to preclude a fog mention attm. Winds will continue
backing overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Expect scattered SH/TS to affect St. Louis metro area TAF sites
later this afternoon and into the evening.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KLSX 280502
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1202 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Most of the diurnally driven cu and showers have dissipated expect
for a few stragglers across the eastern Ozarks in Iron and Reynolds
County. These too should dissipate within the next hour or so.
Otherwise it appears to be a "cool" night with below average
temperatures. Clouds will begin to spread into northern sections
of the CWA overnight in advance of the next upstream northwest
flow short, however light winds and lots of clear time should
allow for some patchy radiational fog areawide.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Sfc ridge will continue to build into the region this eve. Ridge
axis is progd to move swd thru the after Midnight tonight, bringing
swly winds to nrn and wrn portions of the CWA late tonight. Expect
high to possible mid level clouds to move into nrn portions of the
CWA near sunrise.

With the winds becoming swly late tonight, have trended slightly
warmer for these areas. For other areas, have trended aob the cooler
guidance for tonight, esp for ern Ozarks regions, with winds
becoming light under a clear sky. With much cooler temps expected,
can not rule out FG development overnight. The deep mixing today
will help cool dewpoints which may help prevent FG development.

Otherwise, expect SHRA that develops this afternoon to dissipate
quickly with sunset with the remainder of tonight dry.


Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

(Sunday through Sunday Night)

Complex of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a potent northwest flow
vort max is expected to be just northwest of the forecast area early
Sunday morning. This area is expected to head into portions of
northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois around midday.
Not sure whether or not area of showers/storms will sustain itself
through the morning hours but believe the area might as the
low-level moist/warm advection sustains itself. In any
event...strengthening of this complex...if it sustains
itself...would be likely along with new development downstream.
Supercells will be favored convective mode due to favorable
deep-layer shear (35-45 knots) along with a sufficiently unstable
airmass. As SPC noted in their discussion...NAM dewpoints and
therefore progged instability seems highly suspect but GFS MLCAPE
values would still support supercells. All forms of severe weather
will be possible late afternoon/early evening on Sunday though large
hail does seem like the predominate threat due to steep lapse rates
aloft. However...damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes also
possible. Highest threat of severe weather will be during the
afternoon hours across central and northeastern Missouri.

Initial supercells may collide/congeal into clusters by early
evening with damaging winds becoming more of a threat. Storms are
expected to gradually weaken as instability wanes by late evening.
By 0600 UTC, front will be nearly bisecting the CWA with chance PoPs
from 6-12 UTC.

Regarding high temperatures for tomorrow...went near or slightly
above warmer MET guidance as NW flow/clipper type disturbances are
notoriously known for yielding highs warmer than guidance south and
west of the track of the surface low.


(Monday through Saturday)

Quieter weather looks to be on tap for early next week with only a
slight chance of showers/storms Monday through Tuesday mainly east
of the Mississippi River. Another active period of weather looks in
store late Tuesday night through Thursday. Best chances of showers
and storms currently look to be on Wednesday and Wednesday night as
another shortwave embedded within northwest flow transverses the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Still some uncertainty of course with
regards to track/timing...but unfortunately this appears to be
another event which may produce some widespread rain amounts of a
couple of inches and exacerbate ongoing river flooding.

Temperatures will start off near seasonal norms Monday and Tuesday
due to deep mixing and westerly surface flow. Leaned above warmest
guidance each day due to these factors. By Wednesday and
Thursday...clouds/precip chances should yield below normal highs and
near normal low temperatures.

NW flow aloft looks to continue heading into the 4th of July weekend
with continued chances of showers/storms along with slightly below
normal highs.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2015

Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight. Winds will continue to back ahead of an approaching low
pressure system, eventually becoming southwesterly and gusting to
around 20kts after 16z. Scattered SH/TS could affect KUIN before
18z, but precipitation chances at all TAF sites are higher after
21z because of favorable diurnal heating.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Light winds and clear skies will
continue to promote light radiational fog across the region
overnight, especially at KSUS where moderate rainfall earlier this
evening greatly increased the low-level moisture compared to
nearby TAF sites. T-Td spreads were high enough at KSTL at TAF
issuance to preclude a fog mention attm. Winds will continue
backing overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Expect scattered SH/TS to affect St. Louis metro area TAF sites
later this afternoon and into the evening.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton






000
FXUS63 KEAX 280500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A widespread cu field and isolated showers have begun developing
across the region in response to diurnal surface heating and cold
air aloft. Showers and cu will dissipate this evening as the
boundary layer cools, and precipitation amounts are expected to be
low due to the isolated and progressive nature of precipitation.

Main focus in the short term is the severe weather potential across
our CWA on Sunday afternoon through the early evening. The longwave
trough responsible for today`s quiet and cooler conditions will push
eastward tonight, and as it does, a shortwave trough will sink south
down the backside of the departing trough. At low-levels, the short-
wave trough will push a slow-moving cold front through the region,
providing low-level focus for convection. Early in the day, most
precipitation will focus across eastern Missouri where upper-level
forcing is strongest, then as moisture arrives and surface heating
increases instability, winds increase and convergence along the
boundary enhances, storms are expected to strengthen and back build
to the southwest along the front. Shear will be more than adequate
for supercells in the 45 to 50 kt range, and low-level turning will
result in 0-3 km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary should prevent undercutting of updrafts with
cold air; thus strong to severe storms appear probable from ~2 PM
through when the front exits the region in the evening. The limiting
factors for strong to severe storms will be warm-air aloft edging
eastward as the long wave trough departs, and the arrival of low-
level moisture before the front passes. Both of these limitations
exist mainly in the western half of the CWA, keeping severe weather
chances and the overall probability of precipitation a little more
conditional west of Hwy 65 and especially west of the state line.

After storms depart the CWA to the southeast Sunday evening, quiet
and just slightly cooler conditions are expected for Monday. Upper
flow begins to flatten Tuesday into Wednesday and a boundary stalls
across the CWA, resulting the return of precipitation chances and
near to slightly below normal temperatures from midweek on. Heavy
rain could be a threat if multiple rounds of convection fire, but
will evaluate the threat for flooding once the position of the
boundary becomes clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

There could be some isolated to scattered showers moving into
northern Missouri during the overnight hours, but while hi-res models
depict a few showers moving into the northern terminals (KSTJ/KMCI)
forecast soundings are not supportive of rain reaching these
terminals. So kept the mention showers early in the period out of all
terminals. For Sunday afternoon a cold front will move in and kick
off some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
severe with hail and strong winds. Models seem consistent in breaking
out storms along and south of I-70, so kept KMCI/KSTJ out of the
thunderstorm mention. Otherwise, the storms could move out rather
quickly to the south. Thereafter expect VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







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