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000
FXUS64 KJAN 041550
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME SMALL TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM. IT WAS A
LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE AREA WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES
TO SHOW SLOWER WARMING. CONVECTION WAS GOING ALONG THE COAST AND
MODELS SUGGEST SOME WESTWARD PROPAGATING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUIDANCE PUT THE BEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT MODEL OUTPUT WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE. TRIED TO USE A
BLEND...DID EXTEND ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE TODAY...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.AVIATION...A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR BROKEN CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AT MID MORNING...BUT EXPECT
NEARLY ALL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS
QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL OF IMPACTS AT ANY
PARTICLE TAF SITE IS NOT VERY HIGH. /BB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  71  96  72 /  17   9  20  12
MERIDIAN      94  70  95  70 /  18   9  20  12
VICKSBURG     96  71  97  71 /  17   9  21  11
HATTIESBURG   96  71  96  72 /  21  12  27  14
NATCHEZ       93  70  93  71 /  23  12  28  14
GREENVILLE    97  71  98  72 /  11   6  13   9
GREENWOOD     96  70  96  71 /  15   6  13   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 041550
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME SMALL TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM. IT WAS A
LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE AREA WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES
TO SHOW SLOWER WARMING. CONVECTION WAS GOING ALONG THE COAST AND
MODELS SUGGEST SOME WESTWARD PROPAGATING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUIDANCE PUT THE BEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT MODEL OUTPUT WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE. TRIED TO USE A
BLEND...DID EXTEND ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE TODAY...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.AVIATION...A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR BROKEN CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AT MID MORNING...BUT EXPECT
NEARLY ALL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS
QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL OF IMPACTS AT ANY
PARTICLE TAF SITE IS NOT VERY HIGH. /BB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  71  96  72 /  17   9  20  12
MERIDIAN      94  70  95  70 /  18   9  20  12
VICKSBURG     96  71  97  71 /  17   9  21  11
HATTIESBURG   96  71  96  72 /  21  12  27  14
NATCHEZ       93  70  93  71 /  23  12  28  14
GREENVILLE    97  71  98  72 /  11   6  13   9
GREENWOOD     96  70  96  71 /  15   6  13   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 041550
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME SMALL TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM. IT WAS A
LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE AREA WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES
TO SHOW SLOWER WARMING. CONVECTION WAS GOING ALONG THE COAST AND
MODELS SUGGEST SOME WESTWARD PROPAGATING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUIDANCE PUT THE BEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT MODEL OUTPUT WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE. TRIED TO USE A
BLEND...DID EXTEND ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE TODAY...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.AVIATION...A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR BROKEN CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AT MID MORNING...BUT EXPECT
NEARLY ALL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS
QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL OF IMPACTS AT ANY
PARTICLE TAF SITE IS NOT VERY HIGH. /BB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  71  96  72 /  17   9  20  12
MERIDIAN      94  70  95  70 /  18   9  20  12
VICKSBURG     96  71  97  71 /  17   9  21  11
HATTIESBURG   96  71  96  72 /  21  12  27  14
NATCHEZ       93  70  93  71 /  23  12  28  14
GREENVILLE    97  71  98  72 /  11   6  13   9
GREENWOOD     96  70  96  71 /  15   6  13   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 041550
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME SMALL TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM. IT WAS A
LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE AREA WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES
TO SHOW SLOWER WARMING. CONVECTION WAS GOING ALONG THE COAST AND
MODELS SUGGEST SOME WESTWARD PROPAGATING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUIDANCE PUT THE BEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT MODEL OUTPUT WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE. TRIED TO USE A
BLEND...DID EXTEND ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE TODAY...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.AVIATION...A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR BROKEN CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AT MID MORNING...BUT EXPECT
NEARLY ALL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS
QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL OF IMPACTS AT ANY
PARTICLE TAF SITE IS NOT VERY HIGH. /BB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  71  96  72 /  17   9  20  12
MERIDIAN      94  70  95  70 /  18   9  20  12
VICKSBURG     96  71  97  71 /  17   9  21  11
HATTIESBURG   96  71  96  72 /  21  12  27  14
NATCHEZ       93  70  93  71 /  23  12  28  14
GREENVILLE    97  71  98  72 /  11   6  13   9
GREENWOOD     96  70  96  71 /  15   6  13   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 040843
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AS DEW
POINTS LOOK TO MIX INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S EACH AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST
WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
PASSING WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL
FALL TO AROUND 70 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST LOCALES
CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.  ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WILL
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THE SE
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CONTROL OF A LARGE RIDGE
WITH A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WOBBLING ABOUT ON ITS UNDER SIDE. THIS
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS APPEARS TO BE THE SAME ONE THAT JUST LIFTED OUT
OF HERE YESTERDAY...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL WOBBLE BACK NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...CONTINUED TROFFINESS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
BEGIN SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SO PREVALENT THROUGH THE
SUMMER IN THE SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT THROUGH
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...FURTHER BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND
PUTTING THE REGION BACK INTO MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. THE
WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WITH IT...WHICH WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS PERIOD. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEAR AXIS AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE A GOOD BET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT A SITE OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY
DROP TO MVFR STATUS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR STRATUS.  AFTER SUNRISE...BOTH WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...AND
VFR CATEGORIES WILL ENSUE AND PREVAIL AT SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEGRADED FLIGHT STATUSES IS
POSSIBLE AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...KHKS...KJAN...KMEI...AND KHBG.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY 00Z. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  71  96  72 /  17   9  20  12
MERIDIAN      94  70  95  70 /  17   9  20  12
VICKSBURG     96  71  97  71 /  15   9  21  11
HATTIESBURG   96  71  96  72 /  21  12  27  14
NATCHEZ       93  70  93  71 /  19  12  28  14
GREENVILLE    97  71  98  72 /   9   6  13   9
GREENWOOD     96  70  96  71 /   8   6  13   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 040843
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AS DEW
POINTS LOOK TO MIX INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S EACH AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST
WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
PASSING WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL
FALL TO AROUND 70 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST LOCALES
CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.  ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WILL
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THE SE
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CONTROL OF A LARGE RIDGE
WITH A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WOBBLING ABOUT ON ITS UNDER SIDE. THIS
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS APPEARS TO BE THE SAME ONE THAT JUST LIFTED OUT
OF HERE YESTERDAY...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL WOBBLE BACK NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...CONTINUED TROFFINESS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
BEGIN SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SO PREVALENT THROUGH THE
SUMMER IN THE SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT THROUGH
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...FURTHER BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND
PUTTING THE REGION BACK INTO MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. THE
WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WITH IT...WHICH WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS PERIOD. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEAR AXIS AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE A GOOD BET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT A SITE OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY
DROP TO MVFR STATUS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR STRATUS.  AFTER SUNRISE...BOTH WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...AND
VFR CATEGORIES WILL ENSUE AND PREVAIL AT SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEGRADED FLIGHT STATUSES IS
POSSIBLE AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...KHKS...KJAN...KMEI...AND KHBG.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY 00Z. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  71  96  72 /  17   9  20  12
MERIDIAN      94  70  95  70 /  17   9  20  12
VICKSBURG     96  71  97  71 /  15   9  21  11
HATTIESBURG   96  71  96  72 /  21  12  27  14
NATCHEZ       93  70  93  71 /  19  12  28  14
GREENVILLE    97  71  98  72 /   9   6  13   9
GREENWOOD     96  70  96  71 /   8   6  13   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 040233 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
933 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS THERE AS A DRIER AIRMASS IS OVER THE
REGION WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE W AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
OVERALL SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. PW`S HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES
WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR 2 INCHES RESIDES NEAR THE COAST. ONLY LEFT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN IN CENTRAL MS/DELTA REST OF THIS HOUR
UNTIL 03Z FRIDAY AS THESE ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DRY NIGHT LOOKS
IN STORE AFTERWARDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER AS DRIER
CONDITIONS LATELY HELPED US REALLY DROP QUICKLY AND COOLER LAST
NIGHT. BLENDED LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS IN SE MS
OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE COASTAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH TO THE N. SOME
DECOUPLING...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP IN SOME
POTENTIAL. ADDED PATCHY FOG AS HRRR INDICATES BETTER POTENTIAL
BETWEEN 09-13Z. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS IN SE MS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LOW
STRATUS/FOG. /DC/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT A REPEAT OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IN THE 06-14Z
TIME FRAME GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE DURING THE PAST
24 HRS. ONE THING THAT COULD BE DIFFERENT TONIGHT IS PERHAPS A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LIFR STRATUS/FOG IN THE HBG AREA PER RECENT
HRRR GUIDANCE AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSER TO THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE FRIDAY
AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...GREATER HEIGHTS AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS
TODAY HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE GREATER
INSOLATION AREAWIDE. THE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT PRODUCT WAS STILL SHOWING
TWO INCH PWATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND LOCAL RADARS
SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WAS
SHOWING THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE 590DAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BECOMING A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT...BUT CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OVER
NORTHERN GULF FROM MOVING UP INTO OUR AREA. SO ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WARMER IN THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS MID TO LOWER
6O DEW POINTS MIX DOWN EACH AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON BUT THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /22/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  95  72  97 /   8  19   8  18
MERIDIAN      70  94  70  94 /   8  18   8  20
VICKSBURG     70  95  72  97 /   9  19   8  21
HATTIESBURG   71  94  72  94 /  10  26  14  29
NATCHEZ       70  93  72  93 /  10  24  12  29
GREENVILLE    70  96  72  96 /  14  12   8  16
GREENWOOD     69  95  71  95 /   5  10   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/EC/22/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 040233 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
933 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS THERE AS A DRIER AIRMASS IS OVER THE
REGION WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE W AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
OVERALL SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. PW`S HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES
WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR 2 INCHES RESIDES NEAR THE COAST. ONLY LEFT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN IN CENTRAL MS/DELTA REST OF THIS HOUR
UNTIL 03Z FRIDAY AS THESE ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DRY NIGHT LOOKS
IN STORE AFTERWARDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER AS DRIER
CONDITIONS LATELY HELPED US REALLY DROP QUICKLY AND COOLER LAST
NIGHT. BLENDED LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS IN SE MS
OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE COASTAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH TO THE N. SOME
DECOUPLING...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP IN SOME
POTENTIAL. ADDED PATCHY FOG AS HRRR INDICATES BETTER POTENTIAL
BETWEEN 09-13Z. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS IN SE MS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LOW
STRATUS/FOG. /DC/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT A REPEAT OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IN THE 06-14Z
TIME FRAME GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE DURING THE PAST
24 HRS. ONE THING THAT COULD BE DIFFERENT TONIGHT IS PERHAPS A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LIFR STRATUS/FOG IN THE HBG AREA PER RECENT
HRRR GUIDANCE AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSER TO THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE FRIDAY
AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...GREATER HEIGHTS AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS
TODAY HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE GREATER
INSOLATION AREAWIDE. THE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT PRODUCT WAS STILL SHOWING
TWO INCH PWATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND LOCAL RADARS
SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WAS
SHOWING THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE 590DAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BECOMING A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT...BUT CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OVER
NORTHERN GULF FROM MOVING UP INTO OUR AREA. SO ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WARMER IN THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS MID TO LOWER
6O DEW POINTS MIX DOWN EACH AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON BUT THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /22/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  95  72  97 /   8  19   8  18
MERIDIAN      70  94  70  94 /   8  18   8  20
VICKSBURG     70  95  72  97 /   9  19   8  21
HATTIESBURG   71  94  72  94 /  10  26  14  29
NATCHEZ       70  93  72  93 /  10  24  12  29
GREENVILLE    70  96  72  96 /  14  12   8  16
GREENWOOD     69  95  71  95 /   5  10   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/EC/22/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 040233 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
933 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS THERE AS A DRIER AIRMASS IS OVER THE
REGION WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE W AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
OVERALL SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA. PW`S HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES
WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR 2 INCHES RESIDES NEAR THE COAST. ONLY LEFT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN IN CENTRAL MS/DELTA REST OF THIS HOUR
UNTIL 03Z FRIDAY AS THESE ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DRY NIGHT LOOKS
IN STORE AFTERWARDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER AS DRIER
CONDITIONS LATELY HELPED US REALLY DROP QUICKLY AND COOLER LAST
NIGHT. BLENDED LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS IN SE MS
OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE COASTAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH TO THE N. SOME
DECOUPLING...DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP IN SOME
POTENTIAL. ADDED PATCHY FOG AS HRRR INDICATES BETTER POTENTIAL
BETWEEN 09-13Z. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS IN SE MS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LOW
STRATUS/FOG. /DC/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT A REPEAT OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IN THE 06-14Z
TIME FRAME GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE DURING THE PAST
24 HRS. ONE THING THAT COULD BE DIFFERENT TONIGHT IS PERHAPS A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LIFR STRATUS/FOG IN THE HBG AREA PER RECENT
HRRR GUIDANCE AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW CLOSER TO THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE FRIDAY
AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...GREATER HEIGHTS AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS
TODAY HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE GREATER
INSOLATION AREAWIDE. THE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT PRODUCT WAS STILL SHOWING
TWO INCH PWATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND LOCAL RADARS
SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WAS
SHOWING THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE 590DAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BECOMING A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT...BUT CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OVER
NORTHERN GULF FROM MOVING UP INTO OUR AREA. SO ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WARMER IN THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS MID TO LOWER
6O DEW POINTS MIX DOWN EACH AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON BUT THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /22/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  95  72  97 /   8  19   8  18
MERIDIAN      70  94  70  94 /   8  18   8  20
VICKSBURG     70  95  72  97 /   9  19   8  21
HATTIESBURG   71  94  72  94 /  10  26  14  29
NATCHEZ       70  93  72  93 /  10  24  12  29
GREENVILLE    70  96  72  96 /  14  12   8  16
GREENWOOD     69  95  71  95 /   5  10   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/EC/22/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 032020
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...GREATER HEIGHTS AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS
TODAY HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE GREATER
INSOLATION AREAWIDE. THE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT PRODUCT WAS STILL SHOWING
TWO INCH PWATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND LOCAL RADARS
SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WAS
SHOWING THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE 590DAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BECOMING A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT...BUT CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OVER
NORTHERN GULF FROM MOVING UP INTO OUR AREA. SO ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WARMER IN THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS MID TO LOWER
6O DEW POINTS MIX DOWN EACH AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON BUT THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VCTY SHRA ACTIVITY WL AFFECT HKS-JAN-MEI-HBG THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 02Z FRI. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KMEI AND KHBG. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  95  72  97 /   8  19   8  18
MERIDIAN      70  94  70  94 /   6  18   8  20
VICKSBURG     71  95  72  97 /   9  19   8  21
HATTIESBURG   72  94  72  94 /  15  26  14  29
NATCHEZ       71  93  72  93 /  17  24  12  29
GREENVILLE    71  96  72  96 /   5  12   8  16
GREENWOOD     70  95  71  95 /   5  10   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/SW




000
FXUS64 KJAN 032020
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...GREATER HEIGHTS AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS
TODAY HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE GREATER
INSOLATION AREAWIDE. THE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT PRODUCT WAS STILL SHOWING
TWO INCH PWATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND LOCAL RADARS
SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WAS
SHOWING THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE 590DAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BECOMING A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT...BUT CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OVER
NORTHERN GULF FROM MOVING UP INTO OUR AREA. SO ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WARMER IN THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS MID TO LOWER
6O DEW POINTS MIX DOWN EACH AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON BUT THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VCTY SHRA ACTIVITY WL AFFECT HKS-JAN-MEI-HBG THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 02Z FRI. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KMEI AND KHBG. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  95  72  97 /   8  19   8  18
MERIDIAN      70  94  70  94 /   6  18   8  20
VICKSBURG     71  95  72  97 /   9  19   8  21
HATTIESBURG   72  94  72  94 /  15  26  14  29
NATCHEZ       71  93  72  93 /  17  24  12  29
GREENVILLE    71  96  72  96 /   5  12   8  16
GREENWOOD     70  95  71  95 /   5  10   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/SW




000
FXUS64 KJAN 032020
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...GREATER HEIGHTS AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS
TODAY HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE GREATER
INSOLATION AREAWIDE. THE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT PRODUCT WAS STILL SHOWING
TWO INCH PWATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND LOCAL RADARS
SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WAS
SHOWING THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE 590DAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BECOMING A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT...BUT CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OVER
NORTHERN GULF FROM MOVING UP INTO OUR AREA. SO ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WARMER IN THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS MID TO LOWER
6O DEW POINTS MIX DOWN EACH AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON BUT THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VCTY SHRA ACTIVITY WL AFFECT HKS-JAN-MEI-HBG THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 02Z FRI. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KMEI AND KHBG. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  95  72  97 /   8  19   8  18
MERIDIAN      70  94  70  94 /   6  18   8  20
VICKSBURG     71  95  72  97 /   9  19   8  21
HATTIESBURG   72  94  72  94 /  15  26  14  29
NATCHEZ       71  93  72  93 /  17  24  12  29
GREENVILLE    71  96  72  96 /   5  12   8  16
GREENWOOD     70  95  71  95 /   5  10   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/SW



000
FXUS64 KJAN 032020
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...GREATER HEIGHTS AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS
TODAY HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE GREATER
INSOLATION AREAWIDE. THE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT PRODUCT WAS STILL SHOWING
TWO INCH PWATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND LOCAL RADARS
SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WAS
SHOWING THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE 590DAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BECOMING A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT...BUT CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OVER
NORTHERN GULF FROM MOVING UP INTO OUR AREA. SO ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WARMER IN THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS MID TO LOWER
6O DEW POINTS MIX DOWN EACH AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON BUT THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VCTY SHRA ACTIVITY WL AFFECT HKS-JAN-MEI-HBG THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 02Z FRI. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KMEI AND KHBG. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  95  72  97 /   8  19   8  18
MERIDIAN      70  94  70  94 /   6  18   8  20
VICKSBURG     71  95  72  97 /   9  19   8  21
HATTIESBURG   72  94  72  94 /  15  26  14  29
NATCHEZ       71  93  72  93 /  17  24  12  29
GREENVILLE    71  96  72  96 /   5  12   8  16
GREENWOOD     70  95  71  95 /   5  10   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/SW



000
FXUS64 KJAN 031511 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR CWA IN THE WAKE
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS HELPED
DISSIPATE MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE REMOVED POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT GREATER INSOLATION TODAY THAN WE SAW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHWEST HALF. /22/

&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
CLOUD LEVELS ARE AROUND 12KFT AND SHOULD POSE NO PROBLEMS TO
AVIATION INTERESTS. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DEPARTS THE REGION TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...MOISTURE ALOFT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM
A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...COMBINING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S TODAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION BOTH DAYS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE HEADING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 70 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE...CENTERED OVER
TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WITH 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS
AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  71  95  72 /  19  14  19  13
MERIDIAN      93  70  94  70 /  20  12  18  13
VICKSBURG     95  70  95  71 /  14  12  19  13
HATTIESBURG   93  71  94  71 /  30  17  26  14
NATCHEZ       92  71  92  71 /  28  15  24  14
GREENVILLE    95  71  96  72 /  11   8  12   8
GREENWOOD     94  70  95  71 /  10   6  10   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN



000
FXUS64 KJAN 031511 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR CWA IN THE WAKE
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS HELPED
DISSIPATE MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE REMOVED POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT GREATER INSOLATION TODAY THAN WE SAW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHWEST HALF. /22/

&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
CLOUD LEVELS ARE AROUND 12KFT AND SHOULD POSE NO PROBLEMS TO
AVIATION INTERESTS. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DEPARTS THE REGION TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...MOISTURE ALOFT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM
A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...COMBINING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S TODAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION BOTH DAYS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE HEADING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 70 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE...CENTERED OVER
TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WITH 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS
AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  71  95  72 /  19  14  19  13
MERIDIAN      93  70  94  70 /  20  12  18  13
VICKSBURG     95  70  95  71 /  14  12  19  13
HATTIESBURG   93  71  94  71 /  30  17  26  14
NATCHEZ       92  71  92  71 /  28  15  24  14
GREENVILLE    95  71  96  72 /  11   8  12   8
GREENWOOD     94  70  95  71 /  10   6  10   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN



000
FXUS64 KJAN 031511 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR CWA IN THE WAKE
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS HELPED
DISSIPATE MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE REMOVED POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT GREATER INSOLATION TODAY THAN WE SAW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHWEST HALF. /22/

&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
CLOUD LEVELS ARE AROUND 12KFT AND SHOULD POSE NO PROBLEMS TO
AVIATION INTERESTS. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DEPARTS THE REGION TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...MOISTURE ALOFT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM
A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...COMBINING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S TODAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION BOTH DAYS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE HEADING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 70 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE...CENTERED OVER
TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WITH 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS
AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  71  95  72 /  19  14  19  13
MERIDIAN      93  70  94  70 /  20  12  18  13
VICKSBURG     95  70  95  71 /  14  12  19  13
HATTIESBURG   93  71  94  71 /  30  17  26  14
NATCHEZ       92  71  92  71 /  28  15  24  14
GREENVILLE    95  71  96  72 /  11   8  12   8
GREENWOOD     94  70  95  71 /  10   6  10   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN




000
FXUS64 KJAN 030911
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
411 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DEPARTS THE REGION TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...MOISTURE ALOFT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM
A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...COMBINING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S TODAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION BOTH DAYS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE HEADING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 70 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE...CENTERED OVER
TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WITH 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS
AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES AT A SITE OR TWO COULD DROP TO MVFR STATUS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG.  AFTER SUNRISE...
PATCHY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND VFR CATEGORIES WILL ENSUE AND
PREVAIL AT SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DEGRADED FLIGHT STATUSES IS POSSIBLE AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  71  95  72 /  19  14  19  13
MERIDIAN      93  70  94  70 /  20  12  18  13
VICKSBURG     95  70  95  71 /  14  12  19  13
HATTIESBURG   93  71  94  71 /  28  17  26  14
NATCHEZ       92  71  92  71 /  21  15  24  14
GREENVILLE    95  71  96  72 /  11   8  12   8
GREENWOOD     94  70  95  71 /  10   6  10   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 030911
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
411 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DEPARTS THE REGION TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...MOISTURE ALOFT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM
A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...COMBINING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S TODAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION BOTH DAYS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE HEADING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 70 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE...CENTERED OVER
TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WITH 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS
AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES AT A SITE OR TWO COULD DROP TO MVFR STATUS
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG.  AFTER SUNRISE...
PATCHY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND VFR CATEGORIES WILL ENSUE AND
PREVAIL AT SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DEGRADED FLIGHT STATUSES IS POSSIBLE AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  71  95  72 /  19  14  19  13
MERIDIAN      93  70  94  70 /  20  12  18  13
VICKSBURG     95  70  95  71 /  14  12  19  13
HATTIESBURG   93  71  94  71 /  28  17  26  14
NATCHEZ       92  71  92  71 /  21  15  24  14
GREENVILLE    95  71  96  72 /  11   8  12   8
GREENWOOD     94  70  95  71 /  10   6  10   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 030136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE E DUE TO LIFT FROM UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NRN MS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE E OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
DISSIPATE. LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN E MS THROUGH
03Z THURS BUT KEPT REST OF THE NIGHT QUIET AND DRY. UPPER LOW/LIFT WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE E. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT PER
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z KLZK/KSHV SOUNDINGS WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4-1.6
INCHES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 500MB. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY THIN FROM THE NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT SOMEWHAT CLEARING. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WERE TO
BUMP UP AND BLEND LOWS CLOSER TO EURO DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET IN TERMS OF PRECIP. SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z BUT LIFT BY 13-14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION FROM TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRYER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MID
90S. /27/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  71  95 /  13  23  15  19
MERIDIAN      70  93  70  93 /  16  23  18  16
VICKSBURG     71  95  70  95 /  13  17  12  19
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  94 /  16  30  19  28
NATCHEZ       71  93  71  92 /  13  18  15  25
GREENVILLE    72  95  71  94 /  13  16  12  11
GREENWOOD     70  94  70  94 /  13  16  11   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/27/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 030136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE E DUE TO LIFT FROM UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NRN MS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE E OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
DISSIPATE. LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN E MS THROUGH
03Z THURS BUT KEPT REST OF THE NIGHT QUIET AND DRY. UPPER LOW/LIFT WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE E. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT PER
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z KLZK/KSHV SOUNDINGS WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4-1.6
INCHES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 500MB. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY THIN FROM THE NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT SOMEWHAT CLEARING. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WERE TO
BUMP UP AND BLEND LOWS CLOSER TO EURO DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET IN TERMS OF PRECIP. SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z BUT LIFT BY 13-14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION FROM TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRYER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MID
90S. /27/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  71  95 /  13  23  15  19
MERIDIAN      70  93  70  93 /  16  23  18  16
VICKSBURG     71  95  70  95 /  13  17  12  19
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  94 /  16  30  19  28
NATCHEZ       71  93  71  92 /  13  18  15  25
GREENVILLE    72  95  71  94 /  13  16  12  11
GREENWOOD     70  94  70  94 /  13  16  11   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/27/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 030136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE E DUE TO LIFT FROM UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NRN MS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE E OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
DISSIPATE. LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN E MS THROUGH
03Z THURS BUT KEPT REST OF THE NIGHT QUIET AND DRY. UPPER LOW/LIFT WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE E. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT PER
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z KLZK/KSHV SOUNDINGS WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4-1.6
INCHES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 500MB. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY THIN FROM THE NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT SOMEWHAT CLEARING. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WERE TO
BUMP UP AND BLEND LOWS CLOSER TO EURO DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET IN TERMS OF PRECIP. SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z BUT LIFT BY 13-14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION FROM TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRYER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MID
90S. /27/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  71  95 /  13  23  15  19
MERIDIAN      70  93  70  93 /  16  23  18  16
VICKSBURG     71  95  70  95 /  13  17  12  19
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  94 /  16  30  19  28
NATCHEZ       71  93  71  92 /  13  18  15  25
GREENVILLE    72  95  71  94 /  13  16  12  11
GREENWOOD     70  94  70  94 /  13  16  11   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/27/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 030136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE E DUE TO LIFT FROM UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NRN MS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE E OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
DISSIPATE. LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN E MS THROUGH
03Z THURS BUT KEPT REST OF THE NIGHT QUIET AND DRY. UPPER LOW/LIFT WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE E. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT PER
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z KLZK/KSHV SOUNDINGS WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4-1.6
INCHES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 500MB. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY THIN FROM THE NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT SOMEWHAT CLEARING. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WERE TO
BUMP UP AND BLEND LOWS CLOSER TO EURO DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET IN TERMS OF PRECIP. SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z BUT LIFT BY 13-14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION FROM TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRYER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MID
90S. /27/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  71  95 /  13  23  15  19
MERIDIAN      70  93  70  93 /  16  23  18  16
VICKSBURG     71  95  70  95 /  13  17  12  19
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  94 /  16  30  19  28
NATCHEZ       71  93  71  92 /  13  18  15  25
GREENVILLE    72  95  71  94 /  13  16  12  11
GREENWOOD     70  94  70  94 /  13  16  11   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/27/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 030136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE E DUE TO LIFT FROM UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NRN MS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE E OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
DISSIPATE. LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN E MS THROUGH
03Z THURS BUT KEPT REST OF THE NIGHT QUIET AND DRY. UPPER LOW/LIFT WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE E. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT PER
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z KLZK/KSHV SOUNDINGS WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4-1.6
INCHES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 500MB. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY THIN FROM THE NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT SOMEWHAT CLEARING. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WERE TO
BUMP UP AND BLEND LOWS CLOSER TO EURO DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET IN TERMS OF PRECIP. SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z BUT LIFT BY 13-14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION FROM TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRYER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MID
90S. /27/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  71  95 /  13  23  15  19
MERIDIAN      70  93  70  93 /  16  23  18  16
VICKSBURG     71  95  70  95 /  13  17  12  19
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  94 /  16  30  19  28
NATCHEZ       71  93  71  92 /  13  18  15  25
GREENVILLE    72  95  71  94 /  13  16  12  11
GREENWOOD     70  94  70  94 /  13  16  11   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/27/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 030136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE E DUE TO LIFT FROM UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NRN MS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE E OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
DISSIPATE. LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN E MS THROUGH
03Z THURS BUT KEPT REST OF THE NIGHT QUIET AND DRY. UPPER LOW/LIFT WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE E. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT PER
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z KLZK/KSHV SOUNDINGS WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4-1.6
INCHES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 500MB. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY THIN FROM THE NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT SOMEWHAT CLEARING. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WERE TO
BUMP UP AND BLEND LOWS CLOSER TO EURO DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET IN TERMS OF PRECIP. SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z BUT LIFT BY 13-14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION FROM TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRYER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MID
90S. /27/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  71  95 /  13  23  15  19
MERIDIAN      70  93  70  93 /  16  23  18  16
VICKSBURG     71  95  70  95 /  13  17  12  19
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  94 /  16  30  19  28
NATCHEZ       71  93  71  92 /  13  18  15  25
GREENVILLE    72  95  71  94 /  13  16  12  11
GREENWOOD     70  94  70  94 /  13  16  11   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/27/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 030136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE E DUE TO LIFT FROM UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NRN MS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE E OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
DISSIPATE. LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN E MS THROUGH
03Z THURS BUT KEPT REST OF THE NIGHT QUIET AND DRY. UPPER LOW/LIFT WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE E. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT PER
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z KLZK/KSHV SOUNDINGS WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4-1.6
INCHES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 500MB. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY THIN FROM THE NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT SOMEWHAT CLEARING. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WERE TO
BUMP UP AND BLEND LOWS CLOSER TO EURO DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET IN TERMS OF PRECIP. SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z BUT LIFT BY 13-14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION FROM TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRYER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MID
90S. /27/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  71  95 /  13  23  15  19
MERIDIAN      70  93  70  93 /  16  23  18  16
VICKSBURG     71  95  70  95 /  13  17  12  19
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  94 /  16  30  19  28
NATCHEZ       71  93  71  92 /  13  18  15  25
GREENVILLE    72  95  71  94 /  13  16  12  11
GREENWOOD     70  94  70  94 /  13  16  11   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/27/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 030136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE E DUE TO LIFT FROM UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NRN MS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE E OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
DISSIPATE. LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN E MS THROUGH
03Z THURS BUT KEPT REST OF THE NIGHT QUIET AND DRY. UPPER LOW/LIFT WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE E. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALOFT PER
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z KLZK/KSHV SOUNDINGS WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4-1.6
INCHES AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 500MB. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY THIN FROM THE NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT SOMEWHAT CLEARING. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WERE TO
BUMP UP AND BLEND LOWS CLOSER TO EURO DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET IN TERMS OF PRECIP. SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z BUT LIFT BY 13-14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION FROM TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRYER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MID
90S. /27/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  71  95 /  13  23  15  19
MERIDIAN      70  93  70  93 /  16  23  18  16
VICKSBURG     71  95  70  95 /  13  17  12  19
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  94 /  16  30  19  28
NATCHEZ       71  93  71  92 /  13  18  15  25
GREENVILLE    72  95  71  94 /  13  16  12  11
GREENWOOD     70  94  70  94 /  13  16  11   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/27/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 022053
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION FROM TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRYER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MID
90S. /27/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA INHIBITING CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST AND WEST WHERE INSOLATION HAS
OCCURRED. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA ACTIVITY MAY LOWER FLT CATS TO MVFR
BRIEFLY THIS AFTN/EVNG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL CONT THROUGH THIS
EVNG. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS 10-13Z THU WL BE PSBL AT MOST TAF
SITES. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  94  71  95 /  18  23  15  19
MERIDIAN      70  93  70  93 /  16  23  18  16
VICKSBURG     69  95  70  95 /  19  17  12  19
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  94 /  18  30  19  28
NATCHEZ       70  93  71  92 /  21  18  15  25
GREENVILLE    71  95  71  94 /  18  16  12  11
GREENWOOD     69  94  70  94 /  18  16  11   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

27/19/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 022053
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION FROM TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRYER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...MAINLY IN THE MID
90S. /27/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA INHIBITING CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST AND WEST WHERE INSOLATION HAS
OCCURRED. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA ACTIVITY MAY LOWER FLT CATS TO MVFR
BRIEFLY THIS AFTN/EVNG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL CONT THROUGH THIS
EVNG. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS 10-13Z THU WL BE PSBL AT MOST TAF
SITES. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  94  71  95 /  18  23  15  19
MERIDIAN      70  93  70  93 /  16  23  18  16
VICKSBURG     69  95  70  95 /  19  17  12  19
HATTIESBURG   72  94  71  94 /  18  30  19  28
NATCHEZ       70  93  71  92 /  21  18  15  25
GREENVILLE    71  95  71  94 /  18  16  12  11
GREENWOOD     69  94  70  94 /  18  16  11   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

27/19/22



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