[top]
000
FXUS64 KJAN 260258
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING HIGHER AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST. THOSE WERE THE
ONLY CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE STILL ON TRACK.
A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. A PASSING DISTURBANCE WL HELP PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS SUNDAY GENERALLY WEST OF MS RIVER. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MS RIVER. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SLY 6-8KTS
SUNDAY. /22/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
SHORT TERM...THE WEATHER PICTURE WILL REMAIN QUIET IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE PRIMARY QUESTION BEING WHETHER THE REMNANTS OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER WRN ZONES THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO
THE ARKLAMISS BORDER BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WHILE THE REGION REMAINS DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS. ALL BUT THE GFS LOOK DRY
FOR SUNDAY...THE GFS ADVERTISING WEAK FORCING ALONG WITH DECENT
LAPSE RATES. WILL SHAVE MAV MOS POPS SLIGHTLY BUT LEAVE ISOLATED
SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEST. A WEAK WAVE MAY LIFT
INTO WRN ZONES MONDAY. FORCING SHOULD BE LIMITED AND AGAIN ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY IN THE SW/WCNTRL
AREA...FOR MONDAY FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEPARTING SFC HIGH. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR DRY DAYS AS POCKETS OF DRIER AIR WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
SFC HIGH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY AND THIS COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIODS OF MID WEEK
AND BEYOND. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW AND SFC
LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS TRACKS TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT BRINGS A FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS MAY BRING A
BETTER SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 56 86 62 86 / 1 12 6 9
MERIDIAN 50 87 60 87 / 0 10 6 7
VICKSBURG 59 84 65 87 / 1 21 6 9
HATTIESBURG 55 87 61 87 / 1 4 5 13
NATCHEZ 62 83 63 85 / 4 20 7 16
GREENVILLE 61 84 66 86 / 1 16 5 7
GREENWOOD 56 85 63 85 / 1 10 5 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/03/28
000
FXUS64 KJAN 252031
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...THE WEATHER PICTURE WILL REMAIN QUIET IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE PRIMARY QUESTION BEING WHETHER THE REMNANTS OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER WRN ZONES THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO
THE ARKLAMISS BORDER BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WHILE THE REGION REMAINS DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS. ALL BUT THE GFS LOOK DRY
FOR SUNDAY...THE GFS ADVERTISING WEAK FORCING ALONG WITH DECENT
LAPSE RATES. WILL SHAVE MAV MOS POPS SLIGHTLY BUT LEAVE ISOLATED
SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEST. A WEAK WAVE MAY LIFT
INTO WRN ZONES MONDAY. FORCING SHOULD BE LIMITED AND AGAIN ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY IN THE SW/WCNTRL
AREA...FOR MONDAY FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEPARTING SFC HIGH. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR DRY DAYS AS POCKETS OF DRIER AIR WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
SFC HIGH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY AND THIS COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIODS OF MID WEEK
AND BEYOND. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW AND SFC
LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS TRACKS TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT BRINGS A FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS MAY BRING A
BETTER SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TX CURRENTLY
OVER CWA...AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABOUT IT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. ISOLATED SHWRS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER SUNDAY. /AEG/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 56 86 62 86 / 8 12 6 9
MERIDIAN 50 87 60 87 / 6 10 6 7
VICKSBURG 59 84 65 87 / 13 21 6 9
HATTIESBURG 55 87 61 87 / 4 4 5 13
NATCHEZ 62 83 63 85 / 11 20 7 16
GREENVILLE 61 84 66 86 / 9 16 5 7
GREENWOOD 56 85 63 85 / 8 10 5 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
03/28/AEG
000
FXUS64 KJAN 251617
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE
IN PLACE TODAY WITH A FEW DECKS OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PUSHING
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY WARM TO THE MID 80S. OTHER THAN SMALL TWEAKS...NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL
BE THE ISSUE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WEST FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS FOLLOWED BY THE RISK OF A FEW RECORD LOWS IN THE EAST
FOR THIS MORNING AS WELL AS COOL NIGHTS DURING THE PERIOD THEN
FOLLOWED BY LOW POPS AND TEMPS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE ARKLAMISS REGION WAS BEING FLANKED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THERE WAS ALSO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHICH WAS APPROACHING THE REGION. ON
THE SURFACE A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS NOTED FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF BEAT SOME RECORD
LOWS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 40S. ON
CLIMATE STATS HATTIESBURG RECORD LOW OF 52 IN 1983 AND MERIDIANS LOW
OF 47 IN 1979. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS COMING FROM THE
CONVECTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR TONIGHT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FOR AREAS ACROSS THE MS RIVER. THE GFS WAS THE ONLY MODEL
BRINGS A RISK OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SE ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS THE WEAK FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE
LOCAL WRF...NAM AND SREF MODELS WERE LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE MS RIVER. THE MAV POPS LOOKED A LITTLE HIGH SO
WENT WITH THE LOWER TEEN POPS FROM GMOS GUIDANCE. THE SPC WRF BRINGS
SOME RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA FOR TONIGHT.
THE NATIONAL WRF MODELS SHOWED SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAME AREA.
LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 60S. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEAKEN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUED TO BRING VERY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE MS RIVER DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE OTHER SHORT RANGE
MODELS WERE MORE TOWARD THE DRY SIDE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WEAK. THE NATIONAL WRF MODELS SHOWS SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MS RIVER...WHILE THE NMM TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. NOT GOING FOR THAT GIVEN THE WEAK SHORT WAVE. TO HAVE OPTED
TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER GMOS TEEN POPS FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE RIVER DIMINISHES.
LOWS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WENT CLOSE TO
GMOS GUIDANCE./17/
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEPARTING SFC HIGH. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR DRY DAYS AS POCKETS OF DRIER AIR WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
SFC HIGH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY AND THIS COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIODS OF MID WEEK
AND BEYOND. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW AND SFC
LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS TRACKS TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT BRINGS A FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS MAY BRING A
BETTER SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...VERY QUIET...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY
A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TX
CURRENTLY OVER CWA...AND PATCHY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
ABOUT IT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. LIGHT EAST WINDS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. /AEG/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/28/03/AEG
000
FXUS64 KJAN 250823
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL
BE THE ISSUE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WEST FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS FOLLOWED BY THE RISK OF A FEW RECORD LOWS IN THE EAST
FOR THIS MORNING AS WELL AS COOL NIGHTS DURING THE PERIOD THEN
FOLLOWED BY LOW POPS AND TEMPS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE ARKLAMISS REGION WAS BEING FLANKED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THERE WAS ALSO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHICH WAS APPROACHING THE REGION. ON
THE SURFACE A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS NOTED FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF BEAT SOME RECORD
LOWS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 40S. ON
CLIMATE STATS HATTIESBURG RECORD LOW OF 52 IN 1983 AND MERIDIANS LOW
OF 47 IN 1979. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS COMING FROM THE
CONVECTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE. FOR TONIGHT
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES SLOWLY TOWARD
THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE MS RIVER. THE GFS WAS THE ONLY MODEL BRINGS A RISK OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SE ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AS THE WEAK FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE LOCAL WRF...NAM AND
SREF MODELS WERE LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER. THE MAV POPS LOOKED A LITTLE HIGH SO WENT WITH THE LOWER TEEN
POPS FROM GMOS GUIDANCE. THE SPC WRF BRINGS SOME RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA FOR TONIGHT. THE NATIONAL WRF MODELS
SHOWED SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAME AREA. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 60S. WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEAKEN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUED TO BRING VERY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE MS RIVER DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS
WERE MORE TOWARD THE DRY SIDE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER WEAK. THE NATIONAL WRF MODELS SHOWS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MS RIVER...WHILE THE NMM TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. NOT GOING FOR
THAT GIVEN THE WEAK SHORT WAVE. TO HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
GMOS TEEN POPS FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIMITED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE RIVER DIMINISHES. LOWS WILL BE FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. WENT CLOSE TO GMOS GUIDANCE./17/
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEPARTING SFC HIGH. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR DRY DAYS AS POCKETS OF DRIER AIR WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
SFC HIGH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY AND THIS COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIODS OF MID WEEK
AND BEYOND. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW AND SFC
LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS TRACKS TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT BRINGS A FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS MAY BRING A
BETTER SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A COOL/DRY LATE MAY
AIRMASS KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET ACROSS OUR CWA. LOOK FOR LIGHT ESE/SE
WINDS FOR TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MS
RIVER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 87 56 88 60 / 2 8 6 6
MERIDIAN 85 48 87 56 / 2 6 4 6
VICKSBURG 85 59 86 61 / 3 13 13 6
HATTIESBURG 88 58 87 59 / 1 4 4 5
NATCHEZ 85 61 84 61 / 4 11 15 7
GREENVILLE 84 60 88 64 / 3 9 13 5
GREENWOOD 84 55 88 61 / 2 8 9 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/28
000
FXUS64 KJAN 250145 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
845 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S IN THE EAST...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WEST. THE ONLY CHANGE
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A COOL/DRY LATE MAY
AIRMASS KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET ACROSS OUR CWA. LOOK FOR LIGHT NE OR
CALM WINDS TONIGHT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT ESE/SE WINDS ON
SATURDAY. /CME/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE JONESVILLE TO
NATCHEZ AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN A REGION OF WEAK MOIST FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE
ARKLAMISS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL INTO THE 80S SATURDAY WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SUNDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MS RIVER COULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. /EC/
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /SW/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 53 87 58 88 / 0 0 6 5
MERIDIAN 47 84 50 89 / 0 0 5 4
VICKSBURG 56 86 60 87 / 0 2 9 13
HATTIESBURG 54 88 54 88 / 0 0 4 4
NATCHEZ 59 86 62 85 / 4 8 6 15
GREENVILLE 56 84 61 87 / 0 2 7 15
GREENWOOD 50 83 56 88 / 0 0 6 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
27/CME/EC/SW
000
FXUS64 KJAN 242101
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE JONESVILLE TO
NATCHEZ AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN A REGION OF WEAK MOIST FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE
ARKLAMISS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL INTO THE 80S SATURDAY WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SUNDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MS RIVER COULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. /EC/
&&
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SW
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED NEXT
24-36 HOURS. A BAND OF HIGH SC CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OF TAF SITES
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO AREA. N-NE WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KT AT TIMES FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.
COMBINATION OF WINDS STAYING UP AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ONLY CLOUDS
BEING SOME OCCASIONAL PASSING CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM COMPLEXES. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 53 87 58 88 / 0 0 6 5
MERIDIAN 47 84 50 89 / 0 0 5 4
VICKSBURG 56 86 60 87 / 1 2 9 13
HATTIESBURG 54 88 54 88 / 0 0 4 4
NATCHEZ 59 86 62 85 / 6 8 6 15
GREENVILLE 56 84 61 87 / 0 2 7 15
GREENWOOD 50 83 56 88 / 0 0 6 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/AEG/SW
000
FXUS64 KJAN 241556
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1056 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENT MADE TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER IN TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A
DISTINCT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WITH ML CAPE > 2000 J/KG AND
PRECIP WATER >1.5 INCHES HAS SET UP ALONG THE FRONT...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES IT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NATCHEZ AREA FOR A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOP RESULTING IN LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
BE OVER THE GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE SOUTH THERE WILL BE A SLIM CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. THE
NATIONAL WRF MODELS SHOWED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SPC WRF LOOKED A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH STRONG
STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST SPREADING NORTH PRIOR TO DAWN. AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD DRYING IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS(PWATS FROM 0.4 EAST TO AROUND 1 INCH WEST) WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS COMING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW. AS FOR TEMPS HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE 80S SOUTH. LOWS WILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S EAST TO THE MIDDLE 50S WEST. THIS BRING THE RISK OF
BREAKING SOME RECORD LOWS IN THE EAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ON CLIMATE
STATS HATTIESBURG RECORD LOW OF 52 IN 1983 AND MERIDIANS LOW OF 47 IN
1979. FOR TEMPS WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... DURING THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL COME BACK OVER THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE PERIOD. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACCORDING
TO GFS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM MODEL KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE
REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S EAST
TO THE AROUND 60 WEST./17/
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE HIGH HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SW
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED NEXT
24-36 HOURS. A BAND OF HIGH SC RUNNING FROM SE AR TO NEAR KHBG IS
FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN 12Z NAM 925-850 MB MOISTURE FORECASTS. THIS
BAND IS PROGGED TO DRIFT S AND DISSIPATE NEXT 12 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO AREA. N-NE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20 KT AT TIME DURING PEAK MIXING THIE AFTERNOON. COMBINATION
OF WINDS STAYING UP AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ONLY CLOUDS BEING SOME
OCCASIONALY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIE DEBRIS FROM
UPSTREAM COMPLEXES. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 86 51 85 55 / 6 4 3 8
MERIDIAN 87 44 85 50 / 4 4 3 6
VICKSBURG 82 53 85 54 / 7 4 3 12
HATTIESBURG 88 53 87 53 / 9 5 3 4
NATCHEZ 84 56 85 59 / 20 8 7 10
GREENVILLE 79 55 82 59 / 5 4 4 10
GREENWOOD 79 49 82 54 / 5 4 4 8
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KJAN 240740
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
240 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE MORNING AT THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS
FOLLOWED BY THE RISK OF A FEW RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD ALONG WITH TEMPS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE THE ARKLAMISS REGION WAS BEING FLANKED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
ON THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WAS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...WHICH WERENT LASTING LONG DUE TO WEAK MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE MID TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR REGION AT NIGHT FOR THIS WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
BE OVER THE GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE SOUTH THERE WILL BE A SLIM CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. THE NATIONAL
WRF MODELS SHOWED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING IT AS IT HEADED NORTH INTO THE DRYER AIR. THE SPC
WRF LOOKED A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH STRONG STORMS IN THE
SOUTHWEST SPREADING NORTH PRIOR TO DAWN. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD DRYING IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS(PWATS FROM 0.4 EAST TO AROUND 1 INCH WEST) WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS COMING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW. AS FOR TEMPS
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH. LOWS WILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS
FROM THE MIDDLE 40S EAST TO THE MIDDLE 50S WEST. THIS BRING THE RISK
OF BREAKING SOME RECORD LOWS IN THE EAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ON
CLIMATE STATS HATTIESBURG RECORD LOW OF 52 IN 1983 AND MERIDIANS LOW
OF 47 IN 1979. FOR TEMPS WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... DURING THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL COME BACK OVER THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE PERIOD. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACCORDING
TO GFS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM MODEL KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE
REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S EAST
TO THE AROUND 60 WEST./17/
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE HIGH HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SW
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT A QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
FOR MOST SITES. A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE AT HBG AND WILL COVER WITH A 2HR TEMPO FOR 5SM. SKC
CONDITIONS FOR FRI WITH A NNE WIND AT 10-18KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 6 KNOTS FROM THE NE BY 00Z./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 86 51 85 55 / 6 4 3 8
MERIDIAN 87 44 85 50 / 2 4 3 6
VICKSBURG 82 53 85 54 / 7 4 3 12
HATTIESBURG 88 53 87 53 / 6 5 3 4
NATCHEZ 84 56 85 59 / 17 8 7 10
GREENVILLE 79 55 82 59 / 3 4 4 10
GREENWOOD 79 49 82 54 / 2 4 4 8
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/SW
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