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000
FXUS64 KJAN 181602
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1102 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY...THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK.

AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...THERE ARE TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING OVER THE GULF COAST REGION TODAY. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM WAVE IS TRANSLATING EASTWARD IN THIS PROCESS
AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND THUNDER. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS
THE SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RAIN SHIELD OVER
ALABAMA WHICH MAY LIMIT PRECIP OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL MS. THE NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FOCUS RENEWED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MAY MAXIMIZE BETWEEN THE SUBSIDENCE RING AND APPROACHING
TROUGH. OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS SOME IN THE NATCHEZ AREA BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL
WAVES NOTED THIS MORNING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AT THE MOMENT...WHILE SECONDARY WAVE IS CLOSE BEHIND
OVER NE TX/E OK. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO PHASE TOGETHER OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DEEPEN OVER AL...IT WILL PRIMARILY BE THE
UPSTREAM WAVE THAT WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS IT
TRAVERSES TODAY.

PRESENTLY...ISENTROPIC RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SE AREAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT FROM THE GULF WAVE. THESE WIDESPREAD RAINS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY EVERYWHERE BY
THE AFTERNOON. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT OVER AR/LA
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER
TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH -18C AT H5. WHILE AREAS IN THE EAST WILL HAVE OVERCAST
AND SOMEWHAT COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS TODAY...AREAS TO THE WEST LOOK
TO BREAK OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER AND WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S PRIOR
TO THE COLD AIR COMING IN ALOFT. WITH THE COLD CORE PASSING OVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON...CAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND 7.5C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES WILL SET UP WITH VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 28 AND THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
IN SOME OF THE STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING AND COOLEST
MINS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EAST CLOSEST TO THE EXITING COLD CORE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A QUITE PLEASANT DAY
WITH MAXES REACHING THE MID 70S./26/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF EASTER
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AND WARM BUT RAIN AND GENERAL TSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN AND PEAK TUES MRNG INTO THE TUES AFTN AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERING PATTERN PROGRESSIVENESS
DEPICTED BETWEEN EC/GFS/GEM. THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A LOW AMPLIFIED EASTWARD PROGRESSING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS BY SUNDAY EVENING. H7-H5 TROUGHING WILL APPROACH THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH USHERS A WEAK
BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE REGION. TOP-DOWN MOISTURIZING STILL APPEARS TO
BE SLOW GOING MONDAY AND HAVE SLOWED TIMING JUST A BIT MORE LIKE
YESTERDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE MON MRNG AND
AFTN. BEST COVERAGE (SCATTERED AT BEST) WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOME CENTRAL AREAS AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.3" WITH 500-1000 J/KG
SBCAPE PRESENT. INSTABILITY WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT ENOUGH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEAK BOUNDARY UNDER MODERATE QG LIFT
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY AND WITH DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD...SBCAPE
VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG SHOULD BUILD AND ALLOW FOR REGENERATION OF
GENERAL TSTORMS LATE MRNG TUES INTO THE AFTN. SHEAR AND OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT POTENCY OF SAID TSTORMS TO REMAIN
SUB-STRONG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RISK
AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN RIVERS TO SLOWLY ABATE. WILL KEEP
HWO CLEAR FOR THIS SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD.

FOR WED-FRI...THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SETTLED NEAR THE COAST WILL
RETURN NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND PARENT
TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THIS
FEATURE AND THIS WILL BE WATCHED FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE
ARKLAMISS. THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOW 80S AND LIMITED RAINFALL POTENTIAL UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
/ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF VFR...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING. RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE MS RIVER AREA AND QUICKLY
DISSIPATING. THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  49  76  52 /  40   6   1   5
MERIDIAN      67  47  76  48 /  30  17   0   3
VICKSBURG     72  50  76  51 /  42   4   2   5
HATTIESBURG   71  47  77  51 /  31  16   3   2
NATCHEZ       72  50  75  53 /  50  11   3   3
GREENVILLE    72  52  76  54 /  34   5   2   6
GREENWOOD     72  51  75  52 /  38   7   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 180837
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL
WAVES NOTED THIS MORNING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. FIRST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AT THE MOMENT...WHILE SECONDARY WAVE IS CLOSE BEHIND
OVER NE TX/E OK. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO PHASE TOGETHER OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DEEPEN OVER AL...IT WILL PRIMARILY BE THE
UPSTREAM WAVE THAT WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON OUR CWA AS IT
TRAVERSES TODAY.

PRESENTLY...ISENTROPIC RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SE AREAS
ASSOICATED WITH THE LIFT FROM THE GULF WAVE. THESE WIDESPREAD RAINS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY EVERYWHERE BY
THE AFTERNOON. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT OVER AR/LA
ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER
TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH -18C AT H5. WHILE AREAS IN THE EAST WILL HAVE OVERCAST
AND SOMEWHAT COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS TODAY...AREAS TO THE WEST LOOK
TO BREAK OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER AND WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S PRIOR
TO THE COLD AIR COMING IN ALOFT. WITH THE COLD CORE PASSING OVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON...CAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND 7.5C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES WILL SET UP WITH VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 28 AND THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
IN SOME OF THE STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING AND COOLEST
MINS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EAST CLOSEST TO THE EXITING COLD CORE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A QUITE PLEASANT DAY
WITH MAXES REACHING THE MID 70S./26/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF EASTER
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AND WARM BUT RAIN AND GENERAL TSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN AND PEAK TUES MRNG INTO THE TUES AFTN AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE SLIGHTLY DECREASING AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERING PATTERN PROGRESSIVENESS
DEPICTED BETWEEN EC/GFS/GEM. THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A LOW AMPLIFIED EASTWARD PROGRESSING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS BY SUNDAY EVENING. H7-H5 TROUGHING WILL APPROACH THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH USHERS A WEAK
BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE REGION. TOP-DOWN MOISTURIZING STILL APPEARS TO
BE SLOW GOING MONDAY AND HAVE SLOWED TIMING JUST A BIT MORE LIKE
YESTERDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE MON MRNG AND
AFTN. BEST COVERAGE (SCATTERED AT BEST) WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOME CENTRAL AREAS AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.3" WITH 500-1000 J/KG
SBCAPE PRESENT. INSTABILITY WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT ENOUGH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEAK BOUNDARY UNDER MODERATE QG LIFT
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY AND WITH DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD...SBCAPE
VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG SHOULD BUILD AND ALLOW FOR REGENERATION OF
GENERAL TSTORMS LATE MRNG TUES INTO THE AFTN. SHEAR AND OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT POTENCY OF SAID TSTORMS TO REMAIN
SUB-STRONG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A RISK
AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN RIVERS TO SLOWLY ABATE. WILL KEEP
HWO CLEAR FOR THIS SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD.

FOR WED-FRI...THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SETTLED NEAR THE COAST WILL
RETURN NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND PARENT
TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THIS
FEATURE AND THIS WILL BE WATCHED FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE
ARKLAMISS. THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOW 80S AND LIMITED RAINFALL POTENTIAL UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
/ALLEN/


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PROMINENT AROUND KMEI/KHBG
TODAY...WHILE OTHER AREAS SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS. SOME VCTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 18-24Z OVER KGLH/KJAN/KHKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM THE WEST AFTER 19/00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY 19/06Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  49  76  52 /  39   6   1   5
MERIDIAN      67  47  76  48 /  56  17   0   3
VICKSBURG     72  50  76  51 /  36   4   2   5
HATTIESBURG   71  47  77  51 /  40  16   3   2
NATCHEZ       72  50  75  53 /  26  11   3   3
GREENVILLE    72  52  76  54 /  35   5   2   6
GREENWOOD     72  51  75  52 /  38   7   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 180126 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
826 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO THIS EVENINGS WX AS
PRECIP IS HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING OR MAKING INTO THE CWA. DUE
TO THIS POPS/WX WERE LOWERED AND PUSHED BACK IN TIME. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM OUR SE
LOOKS TO SUPPORT A RAIN SHIELD SKIRTING THE CWA AND BRINGING AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE SE PART OF THE CWA. I WANT
TO ADD THAT THEIR REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COULD KEEP MOISTURE CUT OFF. IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN GETTING ANY PRECIP ANYWHERE LATER TONIGHT MAY BE A
REAL CHALLENGE. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED A BIT FOR
CENTRAL...W/NW/N LOCATIONS. HOURLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED QUITE A BIT
THIS EVENING AS A SLOWER TEMP FALL IS OCCURRING DUE TO CLOUDS/WIND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
OVC CEILINGS ARE PRESENT WITH HEIGHTS >5 OR 10KFT. LOOK FOR CEILINGS
TO LOWER AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE SE AND E-CENTRAL
AREAS THEN SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. PRECIP
WILL BE LIMITED FOR THIS EVENING...BUT A MORE EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF
-RA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE AREAS LATER. LOOK FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 16-19Z FRI. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY)...

RAINS ARE PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN LA THIS AFTERNOON OUT
AHEAD OF A S/WV TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE REGION TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
OUT OVER THE GULF PASSING WELL THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA TONIGHT.
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL ALLOW RAINS TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THIS EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
12Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAINS...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL JUST TO
OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. STILL...WE COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACH AN
INCH ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME BRIEF RISES OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
ARE STILL HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT FEEL THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THIS AFTERNOONS HWO AND WILL
KEEP IT CLEAR. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES UNDER THE UPPER LOW. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH HEADED INTO TOMORROW EVE.

S/WV RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION STARTING FRI NIGHT
ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...
WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN COMES ON MONDAY. /BK/

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL START MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN AS A
ONCE PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM H5 S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DECOUPLES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.3-1.5".
COMBINATION OF WEAK QG LIFT FROM SRN BRANCH SPLIT OVERTOP SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE/ MON AFTN SHOULD HELP
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS. INSTABILITY WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING BUT
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING LINGERING, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY /750-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ WILL
RETURN WITH DIABATIC HEATING TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
AS THE POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF GENERAL TSTORMS TUES
AFTN BUT SHEAR/VERTICAL TOTALS LOOK MEAGER AT BEST TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE ROBUST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT LIKELY WITH THIS SET-UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN
RIVERS TO FALL. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  71  48  77 /  33  36   2   1
MERIDIAN      53  68  43  77 /  75  64   7   0
VICKSBURG     54  71  51  78 /  23  34   1   2
HATTIESBURG   55  70  49  79 /  78  42   7   3
NATCHEZ       54  70  51  76 /  20  22   7   3
GREENVILLE    54  73  51  77 /  20  32   1   2
GREENWOOD     53  72  48  77 /  23  32   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/BK/ALLEN/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 172044
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY)...

RAINS ARE PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN LA THIS AFTERNOON OUT
AHEAD OF A S/WV TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE REGION TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
OUT OVER THE GULF PASSING WELL THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA TONIGHT.
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL ALLOW RAINS TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THIS EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
12Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAINS...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL JUST TO
OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. STILL...WE COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACH AN
INCH ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME BRIEF RISES OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
ARE STILL HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT FEEL THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THIS AFTERNOONS HWO AND WILL
KEEP IT CLEAR. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES UNDER THE UPPER LOW. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH HEADED INTO TOMORROW EVE.

S/WV RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION STARTING FRI NIGHT
ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...
WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN COMES ON MONDAY. /BK/

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL START MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN AS A
ONCE PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM H5 S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DECOUPLES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.3-1.5".
COMBINATION OF WEAK QG LIFT FROM SRN BRANCH SPLIT OVERTOP SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE/ MON AFTN SHOULD HELP
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS. INSTABILITY WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING BUT
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING LINGERING, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY /750-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ WILL
RETURN WITH DIABATIC HEATING TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
AS THE POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF GENERAL TSTORMS TUES
AFTN BUT SHEAR/VERTICAL TOTALS LOOK MEAGER AT BEST TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE ROBUST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT LIKELY WITH THIS SET-UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN
RIVERS TO FALL. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MVFR BY THIS EVENING
AROUND HBG AND DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AT SITES FARTHER NORTH.
SHRA WILL BECOME PREVALENT AROUND HBG/MEI AND POSSIBLY JAN/HKS...
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY RAIN. FARTHER NORTH...ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
ARE EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  71  48  77 /  35  36   2   1
MERIDIAN      53  68  43  77 /  76  64   7   0
VICKSBURG     54  71  51  78 /  26  34   1   2
HATTIESBURG   55  70  49  79 /  78  42   7   3
NATCHEZ       54  70  51  76 /  23  22   7   3
GREENVILLE    54  73  51  77 /  23  32   1   2
GREENWOOD     53  72  48  77 /  26  32   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BK/DL






000
FXUS64 KJAN 171418 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
918 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A S/WV
TROUGH THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
TEMPS WERE OFF TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER START THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. /BK/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE ONLY SOME SHOWER CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WELL AS TEMPS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS TRYING TO PUSH IN SOME STRATUS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION UNDER AN UNSEASONABLE COOL AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S. A SHORT WAVE WAS APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A
SHORT WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE ARKLAMISS AS THE NORTHWEST GULF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE AREA WILL BE RATHER CAP WITH
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE. SO WILL OPT FOR SHOWERS
FOR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT INCREASES SOME WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES. THIS WAS NOTED BY THE LOCAL AND NATIONAL
WRF MODELS...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH COVERAGE. SO WITH THIS IN MIND
KEPT CLOSE TO MOS CHANCE POPS. WITH MIDLEVEL DRYING QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF UNDER A HALF INCH IN GENERAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE PLAINS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE GULF SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE OUR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING IN THE
EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A DECENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING A CLOSED SYSTEM EAST OF THE CWA.  NATIONAL
WRF AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S EAST TO THE LOWER 50S WEST.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN STUCK GENERALLY CLOSE TO MAV AND GMOS
GUIDANCE. AS FOR POPS MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV AND GMOS
GUIDANCE./17/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
NICE EASTER WEEKEND EXPECTED BUT RAIN AND GENERAL TSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY MORNING, PEAK TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN, AND
TAPER DOWN TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED OVER PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MODEL SUITE
CONVERGING ON OVERALL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE TIME FRAME. EASTER WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE H5
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS WITH THE REGION NUZZLED IN
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SATURDAY AND TRANSITION TO SW FLOW WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. TOP-DOWN
MOISTURIZING WILL BE DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST SUNDAY AND THUS
SLOWED TIMING OF INITIAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF EC AND WITH GFS AGREEMENT.

MAIN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL START MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN AS A
ONCE PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM H5 S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DECOUPLES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.3-1.5".
COMBINATION OF WEAK QG LIFT FROM SRN BRANCH SPLIT OVERTOP SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE/ MON AFTN SHOULD HELP
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS. INSTABILITY WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING BUT
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING LINGERING, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY /750-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ WILL
RETURN WITH DIABATIC HEATING TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
AS THE POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF GENERAL TSTORMS TUES
AFTN BUT SHEAR/VERTICAL TOTALS LOOK MEAGER AT BEST TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE ROBUST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT LIKELY WITH THIS SET-UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN
RIVERS TO FALL. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MVFR BY THIS EVENING
AROUND HBG AND DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AT SITES FARTHER NORTH.
SHRA WILL BECOME PREVALENT AROUND HBG/MEI AND POSSIBLY JAN/HKS...
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY RAIN. FARTHER NORTH...ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
ARE EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  54  74  50 /   4  30  21   3
MERIDIAN      68  51  72  46 /   4  33  27   6
VICKSBURG     69  54  76  51 /   4  26  21   3
HATTIESBURG   69  54  74  50 /   5  41  28   4
NATCHEZ       68  54  76  52 /   5  28  20   5
GREENVILLE    70  53  75  52 /   4  18  16   3
GREENWOOD     71  53  74  50 /   4  19  16   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BK/DL






000
FXUS64 KJAN 171034 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE ONLY SOME SHOWER CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WELL AS TEMPS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS TRYING TO PUSH IN SOME STRATUS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION UNDER AN UNSEASONABLE COOL AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S. A SHORT WAVE WAS APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A
SHORT WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE ARKLAMISS AS THE NORTHWEST GULF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE AREA WILL BE RATHER CAP WITH
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE. SO WILL OPT FOR SHOWERS
FOR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT INCREASES SOME WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES. THIS WAS NOTED BY THE LOCAL AND NATIONAL
WRF MODELS...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH COVERAGE. SO WITH THIS IN MIND
KEPT CLOSE TO MOS CHANCE POPS. WITH MIDLEVEL DRYING QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF UNDER A HALF INCH IN GENERAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE PLAINS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE GULF SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE OUR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING IN THE
EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A DECENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING A CLOSED SYSTEM EAST OF THE CWA.  NATIONAL
WRF AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S EAST TO THE LOWER 50S WEST.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN STUCK GENERALLY CLOSE TO MAV AND GMOS
GUIDANCE. AS FOR POPS MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV AND GMOS
GUIDANCE./17/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
NICE EASTER WEEKEND EXPECTED BUT RAIN AND GENERAL TSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY MORNING, PEAK TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN, AND
TAPER DOWN TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED OVER PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MODEL SUITE
CONVERGING ON OVERALL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE TIME FRAME. EASTER WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE H5
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS WITH THE REGION NUZZLED IN
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SATURDAY AND TRANSITION TO SW FLOW WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. TOP-DOWN
MOISTURIZING WILL BE DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST SUNDAY AND THUS
SLOWED TIMING OF INITIAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF EC AND WITH GFS AGREEMENT.

MAIN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL START MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN AS A
ONCE PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM H5 S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DECOUPLES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.3-1.5".
COMBINATION OF WEAK QG LIFT FROM SRN BRANCH SPLIT OVERTOP SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE/ MON AFTN SHOULD HELP
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS. INSTABILITY WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING BUT
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING LINGERING, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY /750-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ WILL
RETURN WITH DIABATIC HEATING TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
AS THE POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF GENERAL TSTORMS TUES
AFTN BUT SHEAR/VERTICAL TOTALS LOOK MEAGER AT BEST TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE ROBUST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT LIKELY WITH THIS SET-UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN
RIVERS TO FALL. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR THE SE WHERE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HBG) TO SEE SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
BETWEEN 11-15Z THIS MORNING. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z
WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OF  1.5-2.5
KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME VCNTY SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY 01-03Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  54  74  50 /   4  30  21   3
MERIDIAN      68  51  72  46 /   4  33  27   6
VICKSBURG     69  54  76  51 /   4  26  21   3
HATTIESBURG   69  54  74  50 /   5  41  28   4
NATCHEZ       68  54  76  52 /   5  28  20   5
GREENVILLE    70  53  75  52 /   4  18  16   3
GREENWOOD     71  53  74  50 /   4  19  16   4

&&


.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/ALLEN















000
FXUS64 KJAN 170840
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE ONLY SOME SHOWER CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WELL AS TEMPS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS TRYING TO PUSH IN SOME STRATUS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION UNDER AN UNSEASONABLE COOL AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S. A SHORT WAVE WAS APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A
SHORT WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE ARKLAMISS AS THE NORTHWEST GULF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE AREA WILL BE RATHER CAP WITH
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE. SO WILL OPT FOR SHOWERS
FOR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT INCREASES SOME WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES. THIS WAS NOTED BY THE LOCAL AND NATIONAL
WRF MODELS...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH COVERAGE. SO WITH THIS IN MIND
KEPT CLOSE TO MOS CHANCE POPS. WITH MIDLEVEL DRYING QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF UNDER A HALF INCH IN GENERAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE PLAINS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE GULF SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE OUR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING IN THE
EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A DECENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING A CLOSED SYSTEM EAST OF THE CWA.  NATIONAL
WRF AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S EAST TO THE LOWER 50S WEST.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN STUCK GENERALLY CLOSE TO MAV AND GMOS
GUIDANCE. AS FOR POPS MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV AND GMOS
GUIDANCE./17/

.LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
NICE EASTER WEEKEND EXPECTED BUT RAIN AND GENERAL TSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY MORNING, PEAK TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN, AND
TAPER DOWN TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED OVER PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MODEL SUITE
CONVERGING ON OVERALL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE TIME FRAME. EASTER WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE H5
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS WITH THE REGION NUZZLED IN
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SATURDAY AND TRANSITION TO SW FLOW WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. TOP-DOWN
MOISTURIZING WILL BE DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST SUNDAY AND THUS
SLOWED TIMING OF INITIAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF EC AND WITH GFS AGREEMENT.

MAIN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL START MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN AS A
ONCE PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM H5 S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DECOUPLES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.3-1.5".
COMBINATION OF WEAK QG LIFT FROM SRN BRANCH SPLIT OVERTOP SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE/ MON AFTN SHOULD HELP
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS. INSTABILITY WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING BUT
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING LINGERING, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY /750-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ WILL
RETURN WITH DIABATIC HEATING TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
AS THE POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF GENERAL TSTORMS TUES
AFTN BUT SHEAR/VERTICAL TOTALS LOOK MEAGER AT BEST TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE ROBUST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT LIKELY WITH THIS SET-UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN
RIVERS TO FALL. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR THE SE WHERE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HBG) TO SEE SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
BETWEEN 11-15Z THIS MORNING. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z
WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OF  1.5-2.5
KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME VCNTY SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY 01-03Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  54  74  50 /   4  30  21   3
MERIDIAN      68  51  72  46 /   4  33  27   6
VICKSBURG     69  54  76  51 /   4  26  21   3
HATTIESBURG   69  54  74  50 /   5  41  28   4
NATCHEZ       68  54  76  52 /   5  28  20   5
GREENVILLE    70  53  75  52 /   4  18  16   3
GREENWOOD     71  53  74  50 /   4  19  16   4

&&


.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/ALLEN












000
FXUS64 KJAN 170126 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
826 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE E
TONIGHT. RUC INDICATES INCREASING LOW STRATUS MOVING IN THE SE
BETWEEN 09-10Z AND UP TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. EURO ALSO
INDICATES SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN. GFS INDICATES GOOD
INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295K LAYER...FURTHER
INDICATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN. THUS...ONLY CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL/SE BY 12Z AND
INCREASING CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO 18-00Z. DUE TO SLOW NW
PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS...SOME DECOUPLING AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING...LEFT CURRENT LOWS FOR TONIGHT. ONLY MODIFIED
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION. WHAT HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SE
(HBG) TO SEE SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS BETWEEN 11-15Z THU MORNING.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF THIS IN THE NEXT FORECAST. ANY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH SCT
CLOUDS AROUND. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE FAR SE AROUND SUNRISE THU MORNING. /CME/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. WINDS WILL BE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY AROUND 70. A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
CHANCES FOR THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LATEST
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE CWA FRIDAY FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES IN...SO NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME AND WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. /27/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR
PROGRESSIVE COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAD
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVING AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAD SOME FORM OF A
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS AND EURO GENERALLY AGREED
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND MOVEMENT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE AMPLITUDE AND QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THIS ALSO THE CASE WITH THE NAVGEM MODEL WITH ITS OWN SOLUTION WITH
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. IT TRIED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL
HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF THE MODELS ON THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

STARTING ON THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY PHASED SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWATS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. MODELS SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH CAPPING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE ERODED THE DRY LAYER IN THE MIDLEVELS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR DEEPER LAYER CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL
DRYING DOES COME BACK SOME ON TUESDAY AS WE GET SOME DRY INFLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
WHICH MEANS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF MEX...GMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  70  55  76 /   0   4  16  14
MERIDIAN      37  69  52  74 /   0   4  20  16
VICKSBURG     41  69  54  76 /   0   4  16  14
HATTIESBURG   41  70  55  76 /   0   8  24  16
NATCHEZ       42  68  55  75 /   0   6  16  16
GREENVILLE    42  70  54  76 /   0   4  16  14
GREENWOOD     40  70  54  76 /   0   4  16  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/CME/27/17






000
FXUS64 KJAN 162315 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
615 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE FAR SE AROUND SUNRISE THU MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION. WHAT HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SE
(HBG) TO SEE SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS BETWEEN 11-15Z THU MORNING.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF THIS IN THE NEXT FORECAST. ANY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH SCT
CLOUDS AROUND. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. WINDS WILL BE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY AROUND 70. A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
CHANCES FOR THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LATEST
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE CWA FRIDAY FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES IN...SO NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME AND WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. /27/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR
PROGRESSIVE COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAD
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVING AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAD SOME FORM OF A
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS AND EURO GENERALLY AGREED
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND MOVEMENT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE AMPLITUDE AND QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THIS ALSO THE CASE WITH THE NAVGEM MODEL WITH ITS OWN SOLUTION WITH
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. IT TRIED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL
HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF THE MODELS ON THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

STARTING ON THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY PHASED SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWATS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. MODELS SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH CAPPING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE ERODED THE DRY LAYER IN THE MIDLEVELS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR DEEPER LAYER CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL
DRYING DOES COME BACK SOME ON TUESDAY AS WE GET SOME DRY INFLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
WHICH MEANS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF MEX...GMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  70  55  76 /   0   4  16  14
MERIDIAN      37  69  52  74 /   0   4  20  16
VICKSBURG     41  69  54  76 /   0   4  16  14
HATTIESBURG   41  70  55  76 /   0   8  24  16
NATCHEZ       42  68  55  75 /   0   6  16  16
GREENVILLE    42  70  54  76 /   0   4  16  14
GREENWOOD     40  70  54  76 /   0   4  16  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/27/17/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 162051
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. WINDS WILL BE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY AROUND 70. A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
CHANCES FOR THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LATEST
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE CWA FRIDAY FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES IN...SO NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME AND WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. /27/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR
PROGRESSIVE COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAD
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVING AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAD SOME FORM OF A
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS AND EURO GENERALLY AGREED
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND MOVEMENT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE AMPLITUDE AND QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THIS ALSO THE CASE WITH THE NAVGEM MODEL WITH ITS OWN SOLUTION WITH
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. IT TRIED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL
HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF THE MODELS ON THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

STARTING ON THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY PHASED SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWATS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. MODELS SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH CAPPING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE ERODED THE DRY LAYER IN THE MIDLEVELS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR DEEPER LAYER CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL
DRYING DOES COME BACK SOME ON TUESDAY AS WE GET SOME DRY INFLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
WHICH MEANS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF MEX...GMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE. /17/


&&

.AVIATION...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
/22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  70  55  76 /   0   4  16  14
MERIDIAN      37  69  52  74 /   0   4  20  16
VICKSBURG     41  69  54  76 /   0   4  16  14
HATTIESBURG   41  70  55  76 /   0   8  24  16
NATCHEZ       42  68  55  75 /   0   6  16  16
GREENVILLE    42  70  54  76 /   0   4  16  14
GREENWOOD     40  70  54  76 /   0   4  16  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








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