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000
FXUS64 KJAN 221634 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1034 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS LATE MORNING AS A BROAD ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT COVERS THE AREA. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-55. THIS WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MAKE IT QUITE
AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME...HOWEVER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF
THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LATER ON TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ADJUST
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
/DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 415 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT SLOWLY NUDGES EAST TOWARDS REGION.  THE FIRST SPOKE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS PROGGED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THESE
FEATURES APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY...INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...FURTHER AIDED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
COAST...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY.

I`LL MAINTAIN THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  WITH THE COLD
FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...MODEST LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF IT WITH
NEAR 60 DEW POINTS OOZING UP ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...AND MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE ELEVATED...THE INSTABILITY MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ADDITION TO
50-60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR COULD YIELD SOME SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THIS
TIME...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES AND SWINGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.  AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END OF MONDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...AND RACE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME...A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE AGAIN...VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S...STRONG FORCING...AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CWA.  THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE
NUDGED EAST THIS GO AROUND.

THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...BUT THE GFS IS NOW THE FURTHEST
EAST.  IF CORRECT...THIS GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO NAMELY FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
DUE TO THIS OVERALL NUDGE EAST IN THE LOW`S TRACK BY THE
MODELS...I`LL FOLLOW SUIT IN TERMS OF THE HWO AND FOCUS THE BETTER
SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY OVER THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A NATCHEZ
TO JACKSON TO COLUMBUS LINE FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALL THAT SAID...IF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST OR IF INTENSE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST CUTS OFF MOISTURE TO THE AREA...IT COULD
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY AS WE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY ADVECTS
COLDER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA SQUEEZING OUT
ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. /19/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE CONSENSUS MODEL
SOLUTION IS TRENDING TOWARD THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT CLOSING OFF BEFORE IT CLEARS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL TEND TO LINGER CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LONGER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. IF TEMPERATURES
WERE TRULY COLD THEN THIS COULD INCREASE ODDS OF A FEW FLAKES...BUT
ALAS TEMPERATURES JUST WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...EVEN IN FAR
NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES.

BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WILL NOT BE CHILLY...BECAUSE READINGS WILL BE A TAD
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. NO WORRIES THIS YEAR ABOUT 70
DEGREES READINGS PUTTING YOU OUT OF THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TOO (AFTER CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY).

FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR SATURDAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD BEGIN IN WESTERN ZONES AS
EARLY AS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL WAIT UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY FOR MOST FOLKS. PREVIOUSLY...THIS LOOKED
LIKE A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE FANFARE BUT NOW THE LATEST OP
EURO RUN HAS IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS RIGHT ATOP THE REGION AND HAS
THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDING WITH LOTS OF SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THIS LATTER SOLUTION IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT THE SOLUTION IS MORE THAN CONSPICUOUS CONSIDERING THIS
MODELS USUAL GOOD PERFORMANCE. CONSIDERING SUCH...MODEL BLENDS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST EURO FOR THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL FOR A
CONSISTENTLY COLDER REGIME TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS EVOLUTION MAY BE DELAYED CLOSER TO THE
START OF THE NEW YEAR. IN THE INTERIM INCLEMENT CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG.  MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALSO
BRING A DEGRADATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WHEN OBSERVED ON STATION.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WILL HIGHER GUSTS.
/19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 221634 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1034 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS LATE MORNING AS A BROAD ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT COVERS THE AREA. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-55. THIS WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MAKE IT QUITE
AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME...HOWEVER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF
THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LATER ON TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ADJUST
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
/DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 415 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT SLOWLY NUDGES EAST TOWARDS REGION.  THE FIRST SPOKE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS PROGGED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THESE
FEATURES APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY...INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...FURTHER AIDED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
COAST...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY.

I`LL MAINTAIN THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  WITH THE COLD
FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...MODEST LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF IT WITH
NEAR 60 DEW POINTS OOZING UP ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...AND MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE ELEVATED...THE INSTABILITY MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ADDITION TO
50-60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR COULD YIELD SOME SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THIS
TIME...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES AND SWINGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.  AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END OF MONDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...AND RACE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME...A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE AGAIN...VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S...STRONG FORCING...AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CWA.  THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE
NUDGED EAST THIS GO AROUND.

THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...BUT THE GFS IS NOW THE FURTHEST
EAST.  IF CORRECT...THIS GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO NAMELY FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
DUE TO THIS OVERALL NUDGE EAST IN THE LOW`S TRACK BY THE
MODELS...I`LL FOLLOW SUIT IN TERMS OF THE HWO AND FOCUS THE BETTER
SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY OVER THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A NATCHEZ
TO JACKSON TO COLUMBUS LINE FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALL THAT SAID...IF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST OR IF INTENSE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST CUTS OFF MOISTURE TO THE AREA...IT COULD
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY AS WE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY ADVECTS
COLDER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA SQUEEZING OUT
ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. /19/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE CONSENSUS MODEL
SOLUTION IS TRENDING TOWARD THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT CLOSING OFF BEFORE IT CLEARS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL TEND TO LINGER CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LONGER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. IF TEMPERATURES
WERE TRULY COLD THEN THIS COULD INCREASE ODDS OF A FEW FLAKES...BUT
ALAS TEMPERATURES JUST WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...EVEN IN FAR
NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES.

BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WILL NOT BE CHILLY...BECAUSE READINGS WILL BE A TAD
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. NO WORRIES THIS YEAR ABOUT 70
DEGREES READINGS PUTTING YOU OUT OF THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TOO (AFTER CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY).

FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR SATURDAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD BEGIN IN WESTERN ZONES AS
EARLY AS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL WAIT UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY FOR MOST FOLKS. PREVIOUSLY...THIS LOOKED
LIKE A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE FANFARE BUT NOW THE LATEST OP
EURO RUN HAS IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS RIGHT ATOP THE REGION AND HAS
THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDING WITH LOTS OF SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THIS LATTER SOLUTION IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT THE SOLUTION IS MORE THAN CONSPICUOUS CONSIDERING THIS
MODELS USUAL GOOD PERFORMANCE. CONSIDERING SUCH...MODEL BLENDS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST EURO FOR THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL FOR A
CONSISTENTLY COLDER REGIME TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS EVOLUTION MAY BE DELAYED CLOSER TO THE
START OF THE NEW YEAR. IN THE INTERIM INCLEMENT CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG.  MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALSO
BRING A DEGRADATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WHEN OBSERVED ON STATION.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WILL HIGHER GUSTS.
/19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19/BB






000
FXUS64 KJAN 221018
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NATION`S MID-SECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY NUDGES EAST TOWARDS REGION.  THE FIRST SPOKE OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS PROGGED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THESE
FEATURES APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY...INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...FURTHER AIDED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
COAST...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY.

I`LL MAINTAIN THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  WITH THE COLD
FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...MODEST LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF IT WITH
NEAR 60 DEW POINTS OOZING UP ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...AND MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE ELEVATED...THE INSTABILITY MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ADDITION TO
50-60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR COULD YIELD SOME SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THIS
TIME...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES AND SWINGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.  AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END OF MONDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...AND RACE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME...A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE AGAIN...VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S...STRONG FORCING...AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CWA.  THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE
NUDGED EAST THIS GO AROUND.

THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...BUT THE GFS IS NOW THE FURTHEST
EAST.  IF CORRECT...THIS GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO NAMELY FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
DUE TO THIS OVERALL NUDGE EAST IN THE LOW`S TRACK BY THE
MODELS...I`LL FOLLOW SUIT IN TERMS OF THE HWO AND FOCUS THE BETTER
SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY OVER THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A NATCHEZ
TO JACKSON TO COLUMBUS LINE FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALL THAT SAID...IF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST OR IF INTENSE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST CUTS OFF MOISTURE TO THE AREA...IT COULD
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY AS WE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY ADVECTS
COLDER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA SQUEEZING OUT
ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. /19/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE CONSENSUS MODEL
SOLUTION IS TRENDING TOWARD THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT CLOSING OFF BEFORE IT CLEARS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL TEND TO LINGER CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LONGER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. IF TEMPERATURES
WERE TRULY COLD THEN THIS COULD INCREASE ODDS OF A FEW FLAKES...BUT
ALAS TEMPERATURES JUST WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...EVEN IN FAR
NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES.

BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WILL NOT BE CHILLY...BECAUSE READINGS WILL BE A TAD
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. NO WORRIES THIS YEAR ABOUT 70
DEGREES READINGS PUTTING YOU OUT OF THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TOO (AFTER CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY).

FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR SATURDAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD BEGIN IN WESTERN ZONES AS
EARLY AS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL WAIT UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY FOR MOST FOLKS. PREVIOUSLY...THIS LOOKED
LIKE A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE FANFARE BUT NOW THE LATEST OP
EURO RUN HAS IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS RIGHT ATOP THE REGION AND HAS
THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDING WITH LOTS OF SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THIS LATTER SOLUTION IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT THE SOLUTION IS MORE THAN CONSPICUOUS CONSIDERING THIS
MODELS USUAL GOOD PERFORMANCE. CONSIDERING SUCH...MODEL BLENDS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST EURO FOR THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL FOR A
CONSISTENTLY COLDER REGIME TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS EVOLUTION MAY BE DELAYED CLOSER TO THE
START OF THE NEW YEAR. IN THE INTERIM INCLEMENT CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG.  PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALSO
BRING A DEGRADATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WHEN OBSERVED ON STATION.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WILL HIGHER GUSTS.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  55  66  45 /  28  30  83  91
MERIDIAN      66  58  69  51 /  36  38  84  98
VICKSBURG     69  53  64  40 /  23  22  82  85
HATTIESBURG   71  61  74  53 /  41  28  88  81
NATCHEZ       69  56  66  42 /  20  18  86  77
GREENVILLE    63  49  61  41 /  35  55  70  93
GREENWOOD     64  51  63  43 /  44  62  71  96

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/BB






000
FXUS64 KJAN 221018
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NATION`S MID-SECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY NUDGES EAST TOWARDS REGION.  THE FIRST SPOKE OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS PROGGED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THESE
FEATURES APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY...INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...FURTHER AIDED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
COAST...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY.

I`LL MAINTAIN THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  WITH THE COLD
FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...MODEST LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF IT WITH
NEAR 60 DEW POINTS OOZING UP ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...AND MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE ELEVATED...THE INSTABILITY MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ADDITION TO
50-60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR COULD YIELD SOME SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THIS
TIME...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES AND SWINGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.  AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END OF MONDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...AND RACE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME...A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE AGAIN...VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S...STRONG FORCING...AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CWA.  THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE
NUDGED EAST THIS GO AROUND.

THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...BUT THE GFS IS NOW THE FURTHEST
EAST.  IF CORRECT...THIS GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO NAMELY FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
DUE TO THIS OVERALL NUDGE EAST IN THE LOW`S TRACK BY THE
MODELS...I`LL FOLLOW SUIT IN TERMS OF THE HWO AND FOCUS THE BETTER
SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY OVER THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A NATCHEZ
TO JACKSON TO COLUMBUS LINE FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALL THAT SAID...IF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST OR IF INTENSE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST CUTS OFF MOISTURE TO THE AREA...IT COULD
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY AS WE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY ADVECTS
COLDER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA SQUEEZING OUT
ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. /19/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE CONSENSUS MODEL
SOLUTION IS TRENDING TOWARD THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT CLOSING OFF BEFORE IT CLEARS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL TEND TO LINGER CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LONGER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. IF TEMPERATURES
WERE TRULY COLD THEN THIS COULD INCREASE ODDS OF A FEW FLAKES...BUT
ALAS TEMPERATURES JUST WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...EVEN IN FAR
NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES.

BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WILL NOT BE CHILLY...BECAUSE READINGS WILL BE A TAD
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. NO WORRIES THIS YEAR ABOUT 70
DEGREES READINGS PUTTING YOU OUT OF THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TOO (AFTER CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY).

FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR SATURDAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD BEGIN IN WESTERN ZONES AS
EARLY AS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL WAIT UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY FOR MOST FOLKS. PREVIOUSLY...THIS LOOKED
LIKE A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE FANFARE BUT NOW THE LATEST OP
EURO RUN HAS IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS RIGHT ATOP THE REGION AND HAS
THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDING WITH LOTS OF SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THIS LATTER SOLUTION IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT THE SOLUTION IS MORE THAN CONSPICUOUS CONSIDERING THIS
MODELS USUAL GOOD PERFORMANCE. CONSIDERING SUCH...MODEL BLENDS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST EURO FOR THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL FOR A
CONSISTENTLY COLDER REGIME TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS EVOLUTION MAY BE DELAYED CLOSER TO THE
START OF THE NEW YEAR. IN THE INTERIM INCLEMENT CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG.  PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALSO
BRING A DEGRADATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WHEN OBSERVED ON STATION.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WILL HIGHER GUSTS.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  55  66  45 /  28  30  83  91
MERIDIAN      66  58  69  51 /  36  38  84  98
VICKSBURG     69  53  64  40 /  23  22  82  85
HATTIESBURG   71  61  74  53 /  41  28  88  81
NATCHEZ       69  56  66  42 /  20  18  86  77
GREENVILLE    63  49  61  41 /  35  55  70  93
GREENWOOD     64  51  63  43 /  44  62  71  96

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/BB






000
FXUS64 KJAN 221018
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NATION`S MID-SECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY NUDGES EAST TOWARDS REGION.  THE FIRST SPOKE OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS PROGGED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THESE
FEATURES APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY...INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...FURTHER AIDED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
COAST...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY.

I`LL MAINTAIN THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  WITH THE COLD
FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...MODEST LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF IT WITH
NEAR 60 DEW POINTS OOZING UP ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...AND MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE ELEVATED...THE INSTABILITY MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ADDITION TO
50-60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR COULD YIELD SOME SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THIS
TIME...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES AND SWINGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.  AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END OF MONDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...AND RACE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME...A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE AGAIN...VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S...STRONG FORCING...AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CWA.  THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE
NUDGED EAST THIS GO AROUND.

THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...BUT THE GFS IS NOW THE FURTHEST
EAST.  IF CORRECT...THIS GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO NAMELY FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
DUE TO THIS OVERALL NUDGE EAST IN THE LOW`S TRACK BY THE
MODELS...I`LL FOLLOW SUIT IN TERMS OF THE HWO AND FOCUS THE BETTER
SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY OVER THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A NATCHEZ
TO JACKSON TO COLUMBUS LINE FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALL THAT SAID...IF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST OR IF INTENSE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST CUTS OFF MOISTURE TO THE AREA...IT COULD
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY AS WE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY ADVECTS
COLDER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA SQUEEZING OUT
ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. /19/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE CONSENSUS MODEL
SOLUTION IS TRENDING TOWARD THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT CLOSING OFF BEFORE IT CLEARS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL TEND TO LINGER CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LONGER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. IF TEMPERATURES
WERE TRULY COLD THEN THIS COULD INCREASE ODDS OF A FEW FLAKES...BUT
ALAS TEMPERATURES JUST WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...EVEN IN FAR
NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES.

BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WILL NOT BE CHILLY...BECAUSE READINGS WILL BE A TAD
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. NO WORRIES THIS YEAR ABOUT 70
DEGREES READINGS PUTTING YOU OUT OF THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TOO (AFTER CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY).

FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR SATURDAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD BEGIN IN WESTERN ZONES AS
EARLY AS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL WAIT UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY FOR MOST FOLKS. PREVIOUSLY...THIS LOOKED
LIKE A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE FANFARE BUT NOW THE LATEST OP
EURO RUN HAS IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS RIGHT ATOP THE REGION AND HAS
THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDING WITH LOTS OF SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THIS LATTER SOLUTION IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT THE SOLUTION IS MORE THAN CONSPICUOUS CONSIDERING THIS
MODELS USUAL GOOD PERFORMANCE. CONSIDERING SUCH...MODEL BLENDS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST EURO FOR THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL FOR A
CONSISTENTLY COLDER REGIME TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS EVOLUTION MAY BE DELAYED CLOSER TO THE
START OF THE NEW YEAR. IN THE INTERIM INCLEMENT CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG.  PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALSO
BRING A DEGRADATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WHEN OBSERVED ON STATION.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WILL HIGHER GUSTS.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  55  66  45 /  28  30  83  91
MERIDIAN      66  58  69  51 /  36  38  84  98
VICKSBURG     69  53  64  40 /  23  22  82  85
HATTIESBURG   71  61  74  53 /  41  28  88  81
NATCHEZ       69  56  66  42 /  20  18  86  77
GREENVILLE    63  49  61  41 /  35  55  70  93
GREENWOOD     64  51  63  43 /  44  62  71  96

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/BB






000
FXUS64 KJAN 221018
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NATION`S MID-SECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY NUDGES EAST TOWARDS REGION.  THE FIRST SPOKE OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS PROGGED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  AS THESE
FEATURES APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY...INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE...FURTHER AIDED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
COAST...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY.

I`LL MAINTAIN THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  WITH THE COLD
FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...MODEST LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF IT WITH
NEAR 60 DEW POINTS OOZING UP ALONG TO JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...AND MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE ELEVATED...THE INSTABILITY MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ADDITION TO
50-60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR COULD YIELD SOME SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THIS
TIME...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES AND SWINGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.  AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END OF MONDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...AND RACE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME...A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE AGAIN...VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S...STRONG FORCING...AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CWA.  THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE
NUDGED EAST THIS GO AROUND.

THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...BUT THE GFS IS NOW THE FURTHEST
EAST.  IF CORRECT...THIS GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO NAMELY FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
DUE TO THIS OVERALL NUDGE EAST IN THE LOW`S TRACK BY THE
MODELS...I`LL FOLLOW SUIT IN TERMS OF THE HWO AND FOCUS THE BETTER
SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY OVER THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A NATCHEZ
TO JACKSON TO COLUMBUS LINE FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALL THAT SAID...IF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST OR IF INTENSE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST CUTS OFF MOISTURE TO THE AREA...IT COULD
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY AS WE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY ADVECTS
COLDER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA SQUEEZING OUT
ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. /19/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE CONSENSUS MODEL
SOLUTION IS TRENDING TOWARD THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT CLOSING OFF BEFORE IT CLEARS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL TEND TO LINGER CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LONGER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. IF TEMPERATURES
WERE TRULY COLD THEN THIS COULD INCREASE ODDS OF A FEW FLAKES...BUT
ALAS TEMPERATURES JUST WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...EVEN IN FAR
NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES.

BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE WILL NOT BE CHILLY...BECAUSE READINGS WILL BE A TAD
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. NO WORRIES THIS YEAR ABOUT 70
DEGREES READINGS PUTTING YOU OUT OF THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TOO (AFTER CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY).

FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR SATURDAY.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD BEGIN IN WESTERN ZONES AS
EARLY AS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL WAIT UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY FOR MOST FOLKS. PREVIOUSLY...THIS LOOKED
LIKE A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE FANFARE BUT NOW THE LATEST OP
EURO RUN HAS IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS RIGHT ATOP THE REGION AND HAS
THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDING WITH LOTS OF SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. FOR NOW...THIS LATTER SOLUTION IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT THE SOLUTION IS MORE THAN CONSPICUOUS CONSIDERING THIS
MODELS USUAL GOOD PERFORMANCE. CONSIDERING SUCH...MODEL BLENDS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST EURO FOR THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK THERE STILL IS POTENTIAL FOR A
CONSISTENTLY COLDER REGIME TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS EVOLUTION MAY BE DELAYED CLOSER TO THE
START OF THE NEW YEAR. IN THE INTERIM INCLEMENT CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG.  PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALSO
BRING A DEGRADATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WHEN OBSERVED ON STATION.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WILL HIGHER GUSTS.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  55  66  45 /  28  30  83  91
MERIDIAN      66  58  69  51 /  36  38  84  98
VICKSBURG     69  53  64  40 /  23  22  82  85
HATTIESBURG   71  61  74  53 /  41  28  88  81
NATCHEZ       69  56  66  42 /  20  18  86  77
GREENVILLE    63  49  61  41 /  35  55  70  93
GREENWOOD     64  51  63  43 /  44  62  71  96

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/BB






000
FXUS64 KJAN 220257 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
857 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
PER EVENING SFC/UPPER AIR ANALYSES...THE REGION IS ON THE PERIPHERY
OF A DEPARTING SFC HIGH OVER THE NE CONUS WHILE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH/SFC LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SE RETURN
FLOW IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE COAST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NW TONIGHT. HRRR..GFS..EURO INDICATES A
FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE ABLE TO SNEAK INTO THE SE TONIGHT SO LEFT POPS
IN FAR SE. LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW...WITH AREA OVERCAST BY
04-06Z. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. EVENING 00Z KJAN SOUNDING
INDICATES ONLY NEAR HALF AN INCH PWATS WHILE CLOSER TO 1 INCH RESIDES
NEAR THE COAST. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY MOVING IN AND
ALREADY DROPPING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN S/SE MS. GFS LAMP AND HRRR
INDICATES DECREASING VISIBILITIES TONIGHT FROM ADVECTION FOG...WITH
HRRR INDICATING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN E/SE MS. ADDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE IN E/SE MS. THIS
SHOULD BE FROM AROUND 06-13Z BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN TOMORROW. LOWS LOOK
GOOD OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES
FROM THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING IFR WITH LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL BE THE RULE AROUND 22/12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
22/16Z. /26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE BETTER
INSOLATION AND THE BEGINNINGS OF RETURN FLOW HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S. BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
US...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET STREAK (170-180 KTS) ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES IS LOSING INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA AS PRESSURES LOWER
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SURFACE
PRESSURES WILL ALSO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS IMPROVING JET
DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
OFFSHORE. TONIGHT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES IN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN THIS SETUP AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A PERSISTENT BREEZE OVERNIGHT...OPTED TO TREND MIN
TEMPS TOWARD RAW GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A TRAILING
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 60S DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO
NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE
SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR THUS THUNDER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. MESOSCALE AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST LINEAR OR
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NEAR THE MS RIVER...PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED...PROGGED SBCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ARE
DEPICTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELTA. OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. WITH SHEAR REMAINING MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

BY TUESDAY MORNING THE STRONG JET STREAK WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LEAVING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE STRONGLY
DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL SPUR ON SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW OVER
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THERE SEEMED TO BE A GROWING CONSENSUS AMONG
12Z GUIDANCE IN A TRACK GENERALLY FROM NEAR NATCHEZ TO NEAR JACKSON
TO NEAR TUSCALOOSA BY THE LATE EVENING. WHILE THE EURO AND GFS
INDICATE A MORE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW...THE NAM DEPICTS A WEAKER
LOW/BROAD TROUGHING. NEVERTHELESS PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH MID 60S
DEWPOINT POTENTIALLY REACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE
EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER
WHETHER CONVECTION EITHER ALONG THE GULF COAST OR FARTHER NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROHIBITIVELY STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTORS FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE
REALIZED ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...A LIMITED THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN HWO/GRAPHICAL
PRODUCTS...THOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE WAY THINGS WILL EVOLVE ON TUESDAY. BARRING A CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS FARTHER WEST...INCLUDING MOST OF
THE DELTA ON TUESDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE MAINLY
EAST OF I-55...TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END LATER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE...THOUGH POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY TO
ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. IF THE 00Z OP EURO MODEL IS RIGHT
THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THIS
ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS (WITH ITS CLOSED TRAILING UPPER LOW) CAN NOT YET
BE DISCOUNTED. THIS GFS SOLUTION MAY EVEN HOLD SOME WET SNOWFLAKE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH...BUT THAT REALLY
LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

IN FACT...SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
LOOK TO REALLY ONLY LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE DAY AFTER. BUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE ACTIVE AGAIN AND WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER FROPA AND AT LEAST MINOR RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THIS SCHEDULED FRONT HOLDS MORE POTENTIAL TO
USHER IN A CHANGE TO COLDER REGIME THAT LASTS FOR A WHILE. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       47  68  61  72 /   5  21  57  85
MERIDIAN      47  66  60  69 /  11  23  58  86
VICKSBURG     46  69  58  69 /   4  23  50  82
HATTIESBURG   49  71  62  71 /  13  27  57  81
NATCHEZ       48  70  60  71 /   5  23  47  87
GREENVILLE    44  63  54  61 /   4  33  53  65
GREENWOOD     45  64  56  68 /   5  26  62  71

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/26/DL/BB







000
FXUS64 KJAN 212236
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
436 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE BETTER
INSOLATION AND THE BEGINNINGS OF RETURN FLOW HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S. BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
US...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET STREAK (170-180 KTS) ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES IS LOSING INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA AS PRESSURES LOWER
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SURFACE
PRESSURES WILL ALSO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS IMPROVING JET
DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
OFFSHORE. TONIGHT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES IN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN THIS SETUP AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A PERSISTENT BREEZE OVERNIGHT...OPTED TO TREND MIN
TEMPS TOWARD RAW GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A TRAILING
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 60S DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO
NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE
SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR THUS THUNDER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. MESOSCALE AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST LINEAR OR
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NEAR THE MS RIVER...PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED...PROGGED SBCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ARE
DEPICTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELTA. OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. WITH SHEAR REMAINING MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

BY TUESDAY MORNING THE STRONG JET STREAK WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LEAVING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE STRONGLY
DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL SPUR ON SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW OVER
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THERE SEEMED TO BE A GROWING CONSENSUS AMONG
12Z GUIDANCE IN A TRACK GENERALLY FROM NEAR NATCHEZ TO NEAR JACKSON
TO NEAR TUSCALOOSA BY THE LATE EVENING. WHILE THE EURO AND GFS
INDICATE A MORE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW...THE NAM DEPICTS A WEAKER
LOW/BROAD TROUGHING. NEVERTHELESS PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH MID 60S
DEWPOINT POTENTIALLY REACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE
EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER
WHETHER CONVECTION EITHER ALONG THE GULF COAST OR FARTHER NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROHIBITIVELY STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTORS FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE
REALIZED ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...A LIMITED THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN HWO/GRAPHICAL
PRODUCTS...THOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE WAY THINGS WILL EVOLVE ON TUESDAY. BARRING A CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS FARTHER WEST...INCLUDING MOST OF
THE DELTA ON TUESDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE MAINLY
EAST OF I-55...TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END LATER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE...THOUGH POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY TO
ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. IF THE 00Z OP EURO MODEL IS RIGHT
THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THIS
ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS (WITH ITS CLOSED TRAILING UPPER LOW) CAN NOT YET
BE DISCOUNTED. THIS GFS SOLUTION MAY EVEN HOLD SOME WET SNOWFLAKE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH...BUT THAT REALLY
LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

IN FACT...SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
LOOK TO REALLY ONLY LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE DAY AFTER. BUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE ACTIVE AGAIN AND WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER FROPA AND AT LEAST MINOR RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THIS SCHEDULED FRONT HOLDS MORE POTENTIAL TO
USHER IN A CHANGE TO COLDER REGIME THAT LASTS FOR A WHILE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE KGTR/KMEI/KPIB/KHBG THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       47  68  61  72 /   5  21  57  85
MERIDIAN      47  66  60  69 /  11  23  58  86
VICKSBURG     46  69  58  69 /   4  23  50  82
HATTIESBURG   49  71  62  71 /  13  27  57  81
NATCHEZ       48  70  60  71 /   5  23  47  87
GREENVILLE    44  63  54  61 /   4  33  53  65
GREENWOOD     45  64  56  68 /   5  26  62  71

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/28/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 212236
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
436 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE BETTER
INSOLATION AND THE BEGINNINGS OF RETURN FLOW HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S. BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
US...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET STREAK (170-180 KTS) ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES IS LOSING INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA AS PRESSURES LOWER
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SURFACE
PRESSURES WILL ALSO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS IMPROVING JET
DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
OFFSHORE. TONIGHT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES IN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN THIS SETUP AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A PERSISTENT BREEZE OVERNIGHT...OPTED TO TREND MIN
TEMPS TOWARD RAW GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A TRAILING
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH 60S DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO
NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE
SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR THUS THUNDER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. MESOSCALE AND HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST LINEAR OR
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NEAR THE MS RIVER...PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED...PROGGED SBCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ARE
DEPICTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELTA. OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. WITH SHEAR REMAINING MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT...SOME SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

BY TUESDAY MORNING THE STRONG JET STREAK WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY LEAVING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE STRONGLY
DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL SPUR ON SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW OVER
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THERE SEEMED TO BE A GROWING CONSENSUS AMONG
12Z GUIDANCE IN A TRACK GENERALLY FROM NEAR NATCHEZ TO NEAR JACKSON
TO NEAR TUSCALOOSA BY THE LATE EVENING. WHILE THE EURO AND GFS
INDICATE A MORE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW...THE NAM DEPICTS A WEAKER
LOW/BROAD TROUGHING. NEVERTHELESS PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH MID 60S
DEWPOINT POTENTIALLY REACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE
EVENING. WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER
WHETHER CONVECTION EITHER ALONG THE GULF COAST OR FARTHER NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROHIBITIVELY STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTORS FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE
REALIZED ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...A LIMITED THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN HWO/GRAPHICAL
PRODUCTS...THOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE WAY THINGS WILL EVOLVE ON TUESDAY. BARRING A CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS FARTHER WEST...INCLUDING MOST OF
THE DELTA ON TUESDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE MAINLY
EAST OF I-55...TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END LATER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE...THOUGH POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY TO
ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. IF THE 00Z OP EURO MODEL IS RIGHT
THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THIS
ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS (WITH ITS CLOSED TRAILING UPPER LOW) CAN NOT YET
BE DISCOUNTED. THIS GFS SOLUTION MAY EVEN HOLD SOME WET SNOWFLAKE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH...BUT THAT REALLY
LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

IN FACT...SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
LOOK TO REALLY ONLY LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE DAY AFTER. BUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE ACTIVE AGAIN AND WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER FROPA AND AT LEAST MINOR RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THIS SCHEDULED FRONT HOLDS MORE POTENTIAL TO
USHER IN A CHANGE TO COLDER REGIME THAT LASTS FOR A WHILE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE KGTR/KMEI/KPIB/KHBG THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       47  68  61  72 /   5  21  57  85
MERIDIAN      47  66  60  69 /  11  23  58  86
VICKSBURG     46  69  58  69 /   4  23  50  82
HATTIESBURG   49  71  62  71 /  13  27  57  81
NATCHEZ       48  70  60  71 /   5  23  47  87
GREENVILLE    44  63  54  61 /   4  33  53  65
GREENWOOD     45  64  56  68 /   5  26  62  71

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/28/BB




000
FXUS64 KJAN 211647 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1046 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...THIS MORNING HAS BEEN A TALE OF TWO SIDES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HERE IN THE JACKSON METRO AND NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
DELTA...THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE INTO
THE 50S. ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD TO THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE...LOW CLOUDS WERE PREVALENT AND EVEN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FOG WAS ALSO PREVALENT IN MANY OF THE SAME AREAS EARLIER
ON AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE. GUT FEELING IS THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY...
AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY
COVER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. CONSEQUENTLY MAX TEMPS WERE
ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEGREES IN MANY OF THE SAME AREAS DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATION THERE WILL BE LESS INSOLATION TODAY. FORECAST UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IS
CAUSING IFR AND ISOLATED LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPIB/KHBG/KMEI.
ELSEWHERE SITES ARE SEEING VFR OR CEILINGS ARE RISING OUT OF MVFR TO
VFR AS MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE SOUTH BY TONIGHT. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE
OFF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THIS LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AMPLIFYING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WAA WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER OUR REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING FOR PWS TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR AN
INCH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE DELTA REGION AND OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AREAL COVERAGE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHWEST MOST COUNTIES
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWER 60F DEW POINTS WILL TRY TO
SURGE NORTH TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MLCAPES
REMAINING BELOW 400J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6.5C/KG WITH
-1 TO -2 SHOWALTERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
MAINLY ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH A
DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. WL CARRY THIS
MENTION IN THE HWO. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY THEN
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. /22/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OFF WITH A POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEM PLOWING THROUGH THE REGION.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY
ATOP THE REGION LATER TUESDAY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL OTHER
SUPPORTIVE INGREDIENTS TO TAKE SHAPE...SUCH AS RELATIVELY STEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR...AND
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN MARGINAL LEVELS OF INSTABILITY.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL DIAGNOSED NEGATIVES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PRODUCTION IN OUR REGION...FOREMOST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE LATTER OCCURS THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND DESTABILIZATION WOULD BE INTERRUPTED TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE IN
INLAND AREAS. THIS EVOLUTION MAY NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD DEFINITELY LOWER IT.
FOR THIS REASON I WILL KEEP INTACT THE INHERITED LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODEL SIMULATIONS TO REALLY HONE IN ON WHETHER OR NOT
COASTAL CONVECTION WILL LARGELY SHUT DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR US.

OTHERWISE WITH THIS SYSTEM ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO TO BE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. BUT EVEN IN THESE LATTER
AREAS THE ANTECEDENT GROUND MOISTURE SITUATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THESE SORTS OF RAIN AMOUNTS WITHOUT FLOODING WORRIES. LOOK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY TO
ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. IF THE LATEST OP EURO MODEL IS
RIGHT THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THIS ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS (WITH ITS CLOSED TRAILING UPPER LOW) CAN
NOT YET BE DISCOUNTED. THIS GFS SOLUTION MAY EVEN HOLD SOME WET
SNOWFLAKE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.

IN FACT...SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
LOOK TO REALLY ONLY LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE DAY AFTER. BUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE ACTIVE AGAIN AND WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER FROPA AND AT LEAST MINOR RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THIS SCHEDULED FRONT HOLDS MORE POTENTIAL TO
USHER IN A CHANGE TO COLDER REGIME THAT LASTS FOR A WHILE. /BB/


&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/28/22/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 210953
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A 1027MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A
VERY LIGHT DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PW JUST LESS THAN A HALF INCH. TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AMPLIFYING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WAA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER OUR REGION MONDAY
AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
FOR PWS TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR AN INCH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION AND OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AREAL COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHWEST MOST COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWER 60F DEW POINTS WILL TRY TO SURGE NORTH TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MLCAPES REMAINING BELOW
400J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6.5C/KG WITH -1 TO -2
SHOWALTERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY
ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH A DIMINISHING
POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. WL CARRY THIS MENTION IN
THE HWO. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY THEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OFF WITH A POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEM PLOWING THROUGH THE REGION.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY
ATOP THE REGION LATER TUESDAY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL OTHER
SUPPORTIVE INGREDIENTS TO TAKE SHAPE...SUCH AS RELATIVELY STEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR...AND
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN MARGINAL LEVELS OF INSTABILITY.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL DIAGNOSED NEGATIVES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PRODUCTION IN OUR REGION...FOREMOST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE LATTER OCCURS THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND DESTABILIZATION WOULD BE INTERRUPTED TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE IN
INLAND AREAS. THIS EVOLUTION MAY NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD DEFINITELY LOWER IT.
FOR THIS REASON I WILL KEEP INTACT THE INHERITED LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODEL SIMULATIONS TO REALLY HONE IN ON WHETHER OR NOT
COASTAL CONVECTION WILL LARGELY SHUT DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR US.

OTHERWISE WITH THIS SYSTEM ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO TO BE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. BUT EVEN IN THESE LATTER
AREAS THE ANTECEDENT GROUND MOISTURE SITUATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THESE SORTS OF RAIN AMOUNTS WITHOUT FLOODING WORRIES. LOOK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY TO
ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. IF THE LATEST OP EURO MODEL IS
RIGHT THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THIS ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS (WITH ITS CLOSED TRAILING UPPER LOW) CAN
NOT YET BE DISCOUNTED. THIS GFS SOLUTION MAY EVEN HOLD SOME WET
SNOWFLAKE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.

IN FACT...SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
LOOK TO REALLY ONLY LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE DAY AFTER. BUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE ACTIVE AGAIN AND WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER FROPA AND AT LEAST MINOR RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THIS SCHEDULED FRONT HOLDS MORE POTENTIAL TO
USHER IN A CHANGE TO COLDER REGIME THAT LASTS FOR A WHILE. /BB/


&&

.AVIATION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR
SE OVERNIGHT WHILE MVFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR WEST
AFFECTING GLH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CIGS OVER THE SE WL RISE
ABOVE 3KFT AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z MON. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  46  67  59 /   4   6  12  56
MERIDIAN      58  46  65  59 /   6  10  16  58
VICKSBURG     59  45  67  58 /   4   4  10  49
HATTIESBURG   60  49  70  61 /   8  12  22  51
NATCHEZ       59  47  68  60 /   4   6  11  47
GREENVILLE    55  42  63  56 /   3   4  14  57
GREENWOOD     58  44  64  58 /   4   4  12  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/22








000
FXUS64 KJAN 210953
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A 1027MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A
VERY LIGHT DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PW JUST LESS THAN A HALF INCH. TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AMPLIFYING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WAA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER OUR REGION MONDAY
AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
FOR PWS TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR AN INCH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION AND OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AREAL COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHWEST MOST COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWER 60F DEW POINTS WILL TRY TO SURGE NORTH TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MLCAPES REMAINING BELOW
400J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6.5C/KG WITH -1 TO -2
SHOWALTERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY
ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH A DIMINISHING
POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. WL CARRY THIS MENTION IN
THE HWO. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY THEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OFF WITH A POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEM PLOWING THROUGH THE REGION.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY
ATOP THE REGION LATER TUESDAY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL OTHER
SUPPORTIVE INGREDIENTS TO TAKE SHAPE...SUCH AS RELATIVELY STEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR...AND
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN MARGINAL LEVELS OF INSTABILITY.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL DIAGNOSED NEGATIVES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PRODUCTION IN OUR REGION...FOREMOST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE LATTER OCCURS THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND DESTABILIZATION WOULD BE INTERRUPTED TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE IN
INLAND AREAS. THIS EVOLUTION MAY NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD DEFINITELY LOWER IT.
FOR THIS REASON I WILL KEEP INTACT THE INHERITED LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODEL SIMULATIONS TO REALLY HONE IN ON WHETHER OR NOT
COASTAL CONVECTION WILL LARGELY SHUT DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR US.

OTHERWISE WITH THIS SYSTEM ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO TO BE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. BUT EVEN IN THESE LATTER
AREAS THE ANTECEDENT GROUND MOISTURE SITUATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THESE SORTS OF RAIN AMOUNTS WITHOUT FLOODING WORRIES. LOOK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY TO
ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. IF THE LATEST OP EURO MODEL IS
RIGHT THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THIS ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS (WITH ITS CLOSED TRAILING UPPER LOW) CAN
NOT YET BE DISCOUNTED. THIS GFS SOLUTION MAY EVEN HOLD SOME WET
SNOWFLAKE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.

IN FACT...SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
LOOK TO REALLY ONLY LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE DAY AFTER. BUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE ACTIVE AGAIN AND WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER FROPA AND AT LEAST MINOR RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THIS SCHEDULED FRONT HOLDS MORE POTENTIAL TO
USHER IN A CHANGE TO COLDER REGIME THAT LASTS FOR A WHILE. /BB/


&&

.AVIATION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR
SE OVERNIGHT WHILE MVFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR WEST
AFFECTING GLH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CIGS OVER THE SE WL RISE
ABOVE 3KFT AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z MON. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  46  67  59 /   4   6  12  56
MERIDIAN      58  46  65  59 /   6  10  16  58
VICKSBURG     59  45  67  58 /   4   4  10  49
HATTIESBURG   60  49  70  61 /   8  12  22  51
NATCHEZ       59  47  68  60 /   4   6  11  47
GREENVILLE    55  42  63  56 /   3   4  14  57
GREENWOOD     58  44  64  58 /   4   4  12  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/22









000
FXUS64 KJAN 210953
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A 1027MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A
VERY LIGHT DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PW JUST LESS THAN A HALF INCH. TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AMPLIFYING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WAA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER OUR REGION MONDAY
AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
FOR PWS TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR AN INCH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION AND OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AREAL COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHWEST MOST COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWER 60F DEW POINTS WILL TRY TO SURGE NORTH TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MLCAPES REMAINING BELOW
400J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6.5C/KG WITH -1 TO -2
SHOWALTERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY
ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH A DIMINISHING
POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. WL CARRY THIS MENTION IN
THE HWO. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY THEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OFF WITH A POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEM PLOWING THROUGH THE REGION.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY
ATOP THE REGION LATER TUESDAY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL OTHER
SUPPORTIVE INGREDIENTS TO TAKE SHAPE...SUCH AS RELATIVELY STEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR...AND
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN MARGINAL LEVELS OF INSTABILITY.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL DIAGNOSED NEGATIVES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PRODUCTION IN OUR REGION...FOREMOST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE LATTER OCCURS THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND DESTABILIZATION WOULD BE INTERRUPTED TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE IN
INLAND AREAS. THIS EVOLUTION MAY NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD DEFINITELY LOWER IT.
FOR THIS REASON I WILL KEEP INTACT THE INHERITED LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODEL SIMULATIONS TO REALLY HONE IN ON WHETHER OR NOT
COASTAL CONVECTION WILL LARGELY SHUT DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR US.

OTHERWISE WITH THIS SYSTEM ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO TO BE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. BUT EVEN IN THESE LATTER
AREAS THE ANTECEDENT GROUND MOISTURE SITUATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THESE SORTS OF RAIN AMOUNTS WITHOUT FLOODING WORRIES. LOOK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY TO
ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. IF THE LATEST OP EURO MODEL IS
RIGHT THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THIS ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS (WITH ITS CLOSED TRAILING UPPER LOW) CAN
NOT YET BE DISCOUNTED. THIS GFS SOLUTION MAY EVEN HOLD SOME WET
SNOWFLAKE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.

IN FACT...SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
LOOK TO REALLY ONLY LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE DAY AFTER. BUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE ACTIVE AGAIN AND WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER FROPA AND AT LEAST MINOR RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THIS SCHEDULED FRONT HOLDS MORE POTENTIAL TO
USHER IN A CHANGE TO COLDER REGIME THAT LASTS FOR A WHILE. /BB/


&&

.AVIATION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR
SE OVERNIGHT WHILE MVFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR WEST
AFFECTING GLH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CIGS OVER THE SE WL RISE
ABOVE 3KFT AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z MON. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  46  67  59 /   4   6  12  56
MERIDIAN      58  46  65  59 /   6  10  16  58
VICKSBURG     59  45  67  58 /   4   4  10  49
HATTIESBURG   60  49  70  61 /   8  12  22  51
NATCHEZ       59  47  68  60 /   4   6  11  47
GREENVILLE    55  42  63  56 /   3   4  14  57
GREENWOOD     58  44  64  58 /   4   4  12  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/22








000
FXUS64 KJAN 210953
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A 1027MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A
VERY LIGHT DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PW JUST LESS THAN A HALF INCH. TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AMPLIFYING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WAA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER OUR REGION MONDAY
AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
FOR PWS TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR AN INCH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION AND OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AREAL COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHWEST MOST COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWER 60F DEW POINTS WILL TRY TO SURGE NORTH TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MLCAPES REMAINING BELOW
400J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6.5C/KG WITH -1 TO -2
SHOWALTERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY
ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH A DIMINISHING
POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. WL CARRY THIS MENTION IN
THE HWO. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY THEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OFF WITH A POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEM PLOWING THROUGH THE REGION.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY
ATOP THE REGION LATER TUESDAY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL OTHER
SUPPORTIVE INGREDIENTS TO TAKE SHAPE...SUCH AS RELATIVELY STEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR...AND
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN MARGINAL LEVELS OF INSTABILITY.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL DIAGNOSED NEGATIVES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PRODUCTION IN OUR REGION...FOREMOST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE LATTER OCCURS THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND DESTABILIZATION WOULD BE INTERRUPTED TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE IN
INLAND AREAS. THIS EVOLUTION MAY NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD DEFINITELY LOWER IT.
FOR THIS REASON I WILL KEEP INTACT THE INHERITED LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODEL SIMULATIONS TO REALLY HONE IN ON WHETHER OR NOT
COASTAL CONVECTION WILL LARGELY SHUT DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR US.

OTHERWISE WITH THIS SYSTEM ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO TO BE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. BUT EVEN IN THESE LATTER
AREAS THE ANTECEDENT GROUND MOISTURE SITUATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THESE SORTS OF RAIN AMOUNTS WITHOUT FLOODING WORRIES. LOOK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY TO
ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. IF THE LATEST OP EURO MODEL IS
RIGHT THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THIS ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS (WITH ITS CLOSED TRAILING UPPER LOW) CAN
NOT YET BE DISCOUNTED. THIS GFS SOLUTION MAY EVEN HOLD SOME WET
SNOWFLAKE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.

IN FACT...SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
LOOK TO REALLY ONLY LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE DAY AFTER. BUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE ACTIVE AGAIN AND WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER FROPA AND AT LEAST MINOR RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THIS SCHEDULED FRONT HOLDS MORE POTENTIAL TO
USHER IN A CHANGE TO COLDER REGIME THAT LASTS FOR A WHILE. /BB/


&&

.AVIATION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR
SE OVERNIGHT WHILE MVFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR WEST
AFFECTING GLH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CIGS OVER THE SE WL RISE
ABOVE 3KFT AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z MON. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  46  67  59 /   4   6  12  56
MERIDIAN      58  46  65  59 /   6  10  16  58
VICKSBURG     59  45  67  58 /   4   4  10  49
HATTIESBURG   60  49  70  61 /   8  12  22  51
NATCHEZ       59  47  68  60 /   4   6  11  47
GREENVILLE    55  42  63  56 /   3   4  14  57
GREENWOOD     58  44  64  58 /   4   4  12  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/22









000
FXUS64 KJAN 210953
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A 1027MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A
VERY LIGHT DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PW JUST LESS THAN A HALF INCH. TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AMPLIFYING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WAA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER OUR REGION MONDAY
AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
FOR PWS TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR AN INCH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION AND OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AREAL COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHWEST MOST COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWER 60F DEW POINTS WILL TRY TO SURGE NORTH TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MLCAPES REMAINING BELOW
400J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6.5C/KG WITH -1 TO -2
SHOWALTERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY
ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH A DIMINISHING
POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. WL CARRY THIS MENTION IN
THE HWO. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY THEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OFF WITH A POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEM PLOWING THROUGH THE REGION.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY
ATOP THE REGION LATER TUESDAY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL OTHER
SUPPORTIVE INGREDIENTS TO TAKE SHAPE...SUCH AS RELATIVELY STEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR...AND
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN MARGINAL LEVELS OF INSTABILITY.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL DIAGNOSED NEGATIVES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PRODUCTION IN OUR REGION...FOREMOST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE LATTER OCCURS THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND DESTABILIZATION WOULD BE INTERRUPTED TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE IN
INLAND AREAS. THIS EVOLUTION MAY NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD DEFINITELY LOWER IT.
FOR THIS REASON I WILL KEEP INTACT THE INHERITED LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODEL SIMULATIONS TO REALLY HONE IN ON WHETHER OR NOT
COASTAL CONVECTION WILL LARGELY SHUT DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR US.

OTHERWISE WITH THIS SYSTEM ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO TO BE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. BUT EVEN IN THESE LATTER
AREAS THE ANTECEDENT GROUND MOISTURE SITUATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THESE SORTS OF RAIN AMOUNTS WITHOUT FLOODING WORRIES. LOOK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY TO
ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. IF THE LATEST OP EURO MODEL IS
RIGHT THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THIS ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS (WITH ITS CLOSED TRAILING UPPER LOW) CAN
NOT YET BE DISCOUNTED. THIS GFS SOLUTION MAY EVEN HOLD SOME WET
SNOWFLAKE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.

IN FACT...SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
LOOK TO REALLY ONLY LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE DAY AFTER. BUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE ACTIVE AGAIN AND WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER FROPA AND AT LEAST MINOR RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THIS SCHEDULED FRONT HOLDS MORE POTENTIAL TO
USHER IN A CHANGE TO COLDER REGIME THAT LASTS FOR A WHILE. /BB/


&&

.AVIATION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR
SE OVERNIGHT WHILE MVFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR WEST
AFFECTING GLH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CIGS OVER THE SE WL RISE
ABOVE 3KFT AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z MON. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  46  67  59 /   4   6  12  56
MERIDIAN      58  46  65  59 /   6  10  16  58
VICKSBURG     59  45  67  58 /   4   4  10  49
HATTIESBURG   60  49  70  61 /   8  12  22  51
NATCHEZ       59  47  68  60 /   4   6  11  47
GREENVILLE    55  42  63  56 /   3   4  14  57
GREENWOOD     58  44  64  58 /   4   4  12  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/22








000
FXUS64 KJAN 210953
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A 1027MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A
VERY LIGHT DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PW JUST LESS THAN A HALF INCH. TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AMPLIFYING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WAA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER OUR REGION MONDAY
AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
FOR PWS TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR AN INCH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION AND OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AREAL COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR NORTHWEST MOST COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWER 60F DEW POINTS WILL TRY TO SURGE NORTH TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MLCAPES REMAINING BELOW
400J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6.5C/KG WITH -1 TO -2
SHOWALTERS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY
ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH A DIMINISHING
POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA. WL CARRY THIS MENTION IN
THE HWO. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY THEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OFF WITH A POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEM PLOWING THROUGH THE REGION.
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY
ATOP THE REGION LATER TUESDAY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL OTHER
SUPPORTIVE INGREDIENTS TO TAKE SHAPE...SUCH AS RELATIVELY STEEP
ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR...AND
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN MARGINAL LEVELS OF INSTABILITY.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL DIAGNOSED NEGATIVES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PRODUCTION IN OUR REGION...FOREMOST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE LATTER OCCURS THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND DESTABILIZATION WOULD BE INTERRUPTED TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE IN
INLAND AREAS. THIS EVOLUTION MAY NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE A SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD DEFINITELY LOWER IT.
FOR THIS REASON I WILL KEEP INTACT THE INHERITED LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODEL SIMULATIONS TO REALLY HONE IN ON WHETHER OR NOT
COASTAL CONVECTION WILL LARGELY SHUT DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR US.

OTHERWISE WITH THIS SYSTEM ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO TO BE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. BUT EVEN IN THESE LATTER
AREAS THE ANTECEDENT GROUND MOISTURE SITUATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THESE SORTS OF RAIN AMOUNTS WITHOUT FLOODING WORRIES. LOOK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY TO
ENTIRELY CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. IF THE LATEST OP EURO MODEL IS
RIGHT THE IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THIS ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS (WITH ITS CLOSED TRAILING UPPER LOW) CAN
NOT YET BE DISCOUNTED. THIS GFS SOLUTION MAY EVEN HOLD SOME WET
SNOWFLAKE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THAT REALLY LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.

IN FACT...SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
LOOK TO REALLY ONLY LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE DAY AFTER. BUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS GOTTEN A
LITTLE ACTIVE AGAIN AND WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER FROPA AND AT LEAST MINOR RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THIS SCHEDULED FRONT HOLDS MORE POTENTIAL TO
USHER IN A CHANGE TO COLDER REGIME THAT LASTS FOR A WHILE. /BB/


&&

.AVIATION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR
SE OVERNIGHT WHILE MVFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER OUR WEST
AFFECTING GLH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CIGS OVER THE SE WL RISE
ABOVE 3KFT AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z MON. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  46  67  59 /   4   6  12  56
MERIDIAN      58  46  65  59 /   6  10  16  58
VICKSBURG     59  45  67  58 /   4   4  10  49
HATTIESBURG   60  49  70  61 /   8  12  22  51
NATCHEZ       59  47  68  60 /   4   6  11  47
GREENVILLE    55  42  63  56 /   3   4  14  57
GREENWOOD     58  44  64  58 /   4   4  12  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/22









000
FXUS64 KJAN 210221 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
821 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF OF THE
GULF COAST WHILE NE FLOW HAS KEPT AREAS IN E/SE MS OVERCAST FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY FILTER TO THE SE BEFORE HRRR
INDICATES SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG/NW OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIMITED...BUT DUE TO DRY
AIR ADVECTION IT MAY BE HARDER TO GET ANY DENSE FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FROM 06-14Z. SLIGHTLY TWEAKED LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/DEWPOINT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST AN
INTERMITTENT PROBLEM ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR THROUGH MID-MORNING TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY AT PIB/HBG).
ELSEWHERE...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR VIS ISSUES WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO LIGHT FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND TOMORROW WILL ONLY
INCREASE A LITTLE WHILE VEERING A FEW POINTS ON THE DIAL. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER NICE DAY AFTER YESTERDAYS
RAW...RAINY DAY. MORNING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
DAY BUT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN SHROUDED IN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AND SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR
THE PINE BELT/SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER I DID LEAVE THIS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL DROP A COLD FRONT TOWARD
OUR REGION. BY EARLY TUESDAY ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
TX/AR AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE
TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW IS STILL NOT BEING HANDLE CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SFC LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE DELTA REGION. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THIS ISNT AN OPTIMAL PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS ARKANSAS WHICH
WOULD BE MUCH BETTER PLACEMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR OVER OUR
REGION. MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH THOUGH OTHER MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THAT...SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING MONDAY NIGHT. 35-40KTS OF 850MB FLOW WILL
BE PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT AT 06Z TUESDAY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR(30KTS
0-1KM AND 50-55KTS 0-6KM) AND SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. BY 12Z...MODELS SHOW NEAR
1000J/KG OF MU CAPE. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL TOTALS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 27-29C GIVEN -15 TO -16C 500MB TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL IMPLY SOME BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
ALL OF THIS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE EVEN MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCLUDED MONDAY NIGHT IN OUR GRAPHICS AND HWO AS WELL AS TUESDAY.
HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH BUT ARE SUFFICIENT AND
MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INDICATES THAT THIS ACTUALLY MAY BE THE
BETTER TIME WINDOW FOR TORNADOES. BY TUESDAY...HELICITY VALUES
DECREASE AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT THE HIGHER RISK ON TUESDAY WOULD
BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
TORNADOES...WIND AND HAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IN
ALL OF THIS IS THAT HEIGHTS APPEAR A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT WOULD BE
OPTIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEVERTHELESS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATER MODEL RUNS.

THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AND RAIN WILL EXIT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 531DM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THIS COLD CORE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH
LIGHT RAIN BUT HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND NO
ACCUMULATION WOULD OCCUR. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH UPPER
RIDGING FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY WEATHER BUT
COOLER/MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARENT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
AND SWING IT THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY BEFORE RIDGING RESUMES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       36  60  44  66 /   3   5   9   9
MERIDIAN      36  59  43  65 /   5   5   9   9
VICKSBURG     35  59  42  67 /   3   5   9   9
HATTIESBURG   42  64  46  69 /   5   7  10  14
NATCHEZ       38  59  46  67 /   3   5   9   9
GREENVILLE    35  54  43  65 /   3   5   8   8
GREENWOOD     33  59  43  64 /   3   5   9   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/BB/28






000
FXUS64 KJAN 210221 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
821 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF OF THE
GULF COAST WHILE NE FLOW HAS KEPT AREAS IN E/SE MS OVERCAST FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY FILTER TO THE SE BEFORE HRRR
INDICATES SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG/NW OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIMITED...BUT DUE TO DRY
AIR ADVECTION IT MAY BE HARDER TO GET ANY DENSE FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FROM 06-14Z. SLIGHTLY TWEAKED LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER/DEWPOINT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST AN
INTERMITTENT PROBLEM ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR THROUGH MID-MORNING TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY AT PIB/HBG).
ELSEWHERE...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR VIS ISSUES WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO LIGHT FOG FORMATION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND TOMORROW WILL ONLY
INCREASE A LITTLE WHILE VEERING A FEW POINTS ON THE DIAL. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER NICE DAY AFTER YESTERDAYS
RAW...RAINY DAY. MORNING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
DAY BUT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN SHROUDED IN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AND SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR
THE PINE BELT/SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER I DID LEAVE THIS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL DROP A COLD FRONT TOWARD
OUR REGION. BY EARLY TUESDAY ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
TX/AR AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE
TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW IS STILL NOT BEING HANDLE CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SFC LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE DELTA REGION. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THIS ISNT AN OPTIMAL PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS ARKANSAS WHICH
WOULD BE MUCH BETTER PLACEMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR OVER OUR
REGION. MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH THOUGH OTHER MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THAT...SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING MONDAY NIGHT. 35-40KTS OF 850MB FLOW WILL
BE PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT AT 06Z TUESDAY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR(30KTS
0-1KM AND 50-55KTS 0-6KM) AND SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. BY 12Z...MODELS SHOW NEAR
1000J/KG OF MU CAPE. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL TOTALS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 27-29C GIVEN -15 TO -16C 500MB TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL IMPLY SOME BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
ALL OF THIS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE EVEN MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCLUDED MONDAY NIGHT IN OUR GRAPHICS AND HWO AS WELL AS TUESDAY.
HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH BUT ARE SUFFICIENT AND
MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INDICATES THAT THIS ACTUALLY MAY BE THE
BETTER TIME WINDOW FOR TORNADOES. BY TUESDAY...HELICITY VALUES
DECREASE AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT THE HIGHER RISK ON TUESDAY WOULD
BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
TORNADOES...WIND AND HAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IN
ALL OF THIS IS THAT HEIGHTS APPEAR A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT WOULD BE
OPTIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEVERTHELESS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATER MODEL RUNS.

THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AND RAIN WILL EXIT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 531DM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THIS COLD CORE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH
LIGHT RAIN BUT HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND NO
ACCUMULATION WOULD OCCUR. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH UPPER
RIDGING FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY WEATHER BUT
COOLER/MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARENT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
AND SWING IT THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY BEFORE RIDGING RESUMES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       36  60  44  66 /   3   5   9   9
MERIDIAN      36  59  43  65 /   5   5   9   9
VICKSBURG     35  59  42  67 /   3   5   9   9
HATTIESBURG   42  64  46  69 /   5   7  10  14
NATCHEZ       38  59  46  67 /   3   5   9   9
GREENVILLE    35  54  43  65 /   3   5   8   8
GREENWOOD     33  59  43  64 /   3   5   9   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/BB/28





000
FXUS64 KJAN 202158
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER NICE DAY AFTER YESTERDAYS
RAW...RAINY DAY. MORNING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
DAY BUT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN SHROUDED IN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AND SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR
THE PINE BELT/SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER I DID LEAVE THIS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL DROP A COLD FRONT TOWARD
OUR REGION. BY EARLY TUESDAY ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
TX/AR AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE
TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW IS STILL NOT BEING HANDLE CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SFC LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE DELTA REGION. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THIS ISNT AN OPTIMAL PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS ARKANSAS WHICH
WOULD BE MUCH BETTER PLACEMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR OVER OUR
REGION. MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH THOUGH OTHER MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THAT...SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING MONDAY NIGHT. 35-40KTS OF 850MB FLOW WILL
BE PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT AT 06Z TUESDAY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR(30KTS
0-1KM AND 50-55KTS 0-6KM) AND SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. BY 12Z...MODELS SHOW NEAR
1000J/KG OF MU CAPE. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL TOTALS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 27-29C GIVEN -15 TO -16C 500MB TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL IMPLY SOME BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
ALL OF THIS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE EVEN MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCLUDED MONDAY NIGHT IN OUR GRAPHICS AND HWO AS WELL AS TUESDAY.
HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH BUT ARE SUFFICIENT AND
MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INDICATES THAT THIS ACTUALLY MAY BE THE
BETTER TIME WINDOW FOR TORNADOES. BY TUESDAY...HELICITY VALUES
DECREASE AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT THE HIGHER RISK ON TUESDAY WOULD
BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
TORNADOES...WIND AND HAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IN
ALL OF THIS IS THAT HEIGHTS APPEAR A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT WOULD BE
OPTIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEVERTHELESS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATER MODEL RUNS.

THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AND RAIN WILL EXIT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 531DM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THIS COLD CORE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH
LIGHT RAIN BUT HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND NO
ACCUMULATION WOULD OCCUR. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH UPPER
RIDGING FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY WEATHER BUT
COOLER/MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARENT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
AND SWING IT THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY BEFORE RIDGING RESUMES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES EXPECT FOR
KMEI AND KHBG. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH AT KHBG THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PARTIAL CLEARING WAS LEADING TO IMPROVED CIG
CATEGORIES AT KMEI BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT THERE.
SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. /SW/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       35  60  44  66 /   3   5   9   9
MERIDIAN      35  59  43  65 /   5   5   9   9
VICKSBURG     34  59  42  67 /   3   5   9   9
HATTIESBURG   41  64  46  69 /   5   7  10  14
NATCHEZ       37  59  46  67 /   3   5   9   9
GREENVILLE    34  54  43  65 /   3   5   8   8
GREENWOOD     32  59  43  64 /   3   5   9   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/SW






000
FXUS64 KJAN 202158
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER NICE DAY AFTER YESTERDAYS
RAW...RAINY DAY. MORNING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
DAY BUT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN SHROUDED IN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AND SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR
THE PINE BELT/SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER I DID LEAVE THIS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL DROP A COLD FRONT TOWARD
OUR REGION. BY EARLY TUESDAY ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
TX/AR AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE
TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW IS STILL NOT BEING HANDLE CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SFC LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE DELTA REGION. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...THIS ISNT AN OPTIMAL PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS ARKANSAS WHICH
WOULD BE MUCH BETTER PLACEMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR OVER OUR
REGION. MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH THOUGH OTHER MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THAT...SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING MONDAY NIGHT. 35-40KTS OF 850MB FLOW WILL
BE PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT AT 06Z TUESDAY THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR(30KTS
0-1KM AND 50-55KTS 0-6KM) AND SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. BY 12Z...MODELS SHOW NEAR
1000J/KG OF MU CAPE. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL TOTALS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE 27-29C GIVEN -15 TO -16C 500MB TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL IMPLY SOME BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
ALL OF THIS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE EVEN MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCLUDED MONDAY NIGHT IN OUR GRAPHICS AND HWO AS WELL AS TUESDAY.
HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH BUT ARE SUFFICIENT AND
MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INDICATES THAT THIS ACTUALLY MAY BE THE
BETTER TIME WINDOW FOR TORNADOES. BY TUESDAY...HELICITY VALUES
DECREASE AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT THE HIGHER RISK ON TUESDAY WOULD
BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
TORNADOES...WIND AND HAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IN
ALL OF THIS IS THAT HEIGHTS APPEAR A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT WOULD BE
OPTIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEVERTHELESS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATER MODEL RUNS.

THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AND RAIN WILL EXIT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE 531DM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THIS COLD CORE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH
LIGHT RAIN BUT HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND NO
ACCUMULATION WOULD OCCUR. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH UPPER
RIDGING FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY WEATHER BUT
COOLER/MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARENT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
AND SWING IT THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY BEFORE RIDGING RESUMES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES EXPECT FOR
KMEI AND KHBG. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO HANG TOUGH AT KHBG THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PARTIAL CLEARING WAS LEADING TO IMPROVED CIG
CATEGORIES AT KMEI BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT THERE.
SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. /SW/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       35  60  44  66 /   3   5   9   9
MERIDIAN      35  59  43  65 /   5   5   9   9
VICKSBURG     34  59  42  67 /   3   5   9   9
HATTIESBURG   41  64  46  69 /   5   7  10  14
NATCHEZ       37  59  46  67 /   3   5   9   9
GREENVILLE    34  54  43  65 /   3   5   8   8
GREENWOOD     32  59  43  64 /   3   5   9   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/SW





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