[top]
000
FXUS64 KJAN 190233 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
933 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IN A LONG SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS NOW
EXTENDS FROM JACKSON TO MCCOMB...AND IS ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE SOUTH
OF A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS COMPLEX HAS BEEN MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EASTWARD TONIGHT AFFECTING
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...THOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FROM THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE AND MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED
TO FOCUS THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND LOWER POPS FARTHER
TO THE NORTH. MIN TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED IN A FEW AREAS WHERE TEMPS
WERE ALREADY BELOW PROJECTED MINIMUMS DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS HKS/JAN AND
HBG THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 03-04Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER...BUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR JAN/HKS/MEI AND HBG BY 09-10Z DUE
TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z FOR MOST
SITES...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON./15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN AND SETTLE ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY FADE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES EXISTS AGAIN TOMORROW. THE CLOUDS TODAY BROUGHT
SOME RELIEF IN TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO
AFFECT ON OUR TEMPS THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEY WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL TOMORROW. PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DON`T
RECEIVE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND WHERE THE CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED
OUT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THURSDAY SHOULD BE HOT BUT
RELATIVELY QUIET THEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE PLAINS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH. /10/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT DRYING OF OUR AIRMASS AND AT
PRESENT...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS TO DRY OUT AS FAR AS RAINFALL IS
CONCERNED.
THIS DOESN`T LOOK TO LAST LONG THOUGH AS BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND THE
HUMIDITY LOOK TO RETURN DURING THE WEEKEND AND HANG ON INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEFT BY A DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ABOUT ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...LOOKS TO AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GUIDANCE SUGGESTED HIGHS AND
LOWS LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...WHILE LOWS EACH NIGHT GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /19/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DL/15/10/19
000
FXUS64 KJAN 182041
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA NOW. THE DRAPING FRONT IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE HWY 82 AND THE I-20 CORRIDORS.
INSTABILITY-WISE...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
FORMATION OF STRONGER OR WIDESPREAD STORMS DESPITE THERE BEING HIGH
PWS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WAS
THEREFORE TAKEN OUT OF THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR SOMEWHERE AROUND SUNSET AND SO THE MAJORITY
OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THAT.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA WILL BE TRAVELING
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SO POPS WILL REFLECT
CHANCES FOR CONTINUED STORMS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN
AND SETTLE ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY FADE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EXISTS AGAIN TOMORROW. THE
CLOUDS TODAY BROUGHT SOME RELIEF IN TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON OUR TEMPS THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEY
WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL TOMORROW. PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY IN AREAS
THAT DON`T RECEIVE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND WHERE THE CLOUD COVER HAS
CLEARED OUT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THURSDAY SHOULD BE HOT
BUT RELATIVELY QUIET THEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE PLAINS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH. /10/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT DRYING OF OUR AIRMASS AND AT
PRESENT...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS TO DRY OUT AS FAR AS RAINFALL IS
CONCERNED.
THIS DOESN`T LOOK TO LAST LONG THOUGH AS BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND THE
HUMIDITY LOOK TO RETURN DURING THE WEEKEND AND HANG ON INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEFT BY A DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ABOUT ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...LOOKS TO AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GUIDANCE SUGGESTED HIGHS AND
LOWS LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...WHILE LOWS EACH NIGHT GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GLH-GWO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVNG. OUTSIDE OF TSTM AREAS...VFR CONDS
WL PREVAIL. THE TSTM ACTIVITY WL DECREASE THIS EVNG. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/FOG WL BE POSSIBLE BY 10Z ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTH WHERE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WL RESIDE. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z. VFR CONDS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST SITES WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED AFTN AND EVNG
TSTMS ACROSS THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 89 67 92 / 43 23 10 7
MERIDIAN 69 89 66 92 / 47 19 11 11
VICKSBURG 69 89 68 92 / 41 22 7 5
HATTIESBURG 72 89 69 92 / 48 41 14 19
NATCHEZ 71 88 70 92 / 48 36 9 13
GREENVILLE 70 91 70 93 / 13 6 1 3
GREENWOOD 69 91 68 92 / 18 6 2 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KJAN 181533 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1033 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED BETWEEN GREENVILLE AND GREENWOOD TO NORTH OF MONROE AND
BASTROP. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS LINE. THE EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED BY
NOW AND SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO RECUPERATE A BIT THIS
MORNING. THIS MEANS THAT THE REDEVELOPING STORMS LATER ON WILL BE
ABLE TO SUPPORT THEMSELVES AND CONTINUE TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THAT DIRECTION. FOR THE UPDATE THIS
MORNING...RAISED POPS IN THE WEST WHERE REMAINING MORNING SHOWERS
ARE STILL PERSISTING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. /10/
&&
.AVIATION...
THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ALONG I-20 HAS DECREASED BUT ACTIVITY
ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WAS INCREASING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD SOUTH.
NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTN AND
INTO THE EVNG. MVFR CEILINGS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL AWAY FROM TSTMS THIS
AFTN AND EVNG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...CONVECTION HAS GOTTEN AN EARLY START AS DECENT
ACTIVITY HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST SECTIONS OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR SINCE 06Z. THIS IS FOCUSED IN A REGION OF THETA E ADV
ALONG WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SFC BOUNDARY
SITUATED JUST TO THE NW. ADDITIONALLY...ASCENT IN NEARING THE REGION
AS A DECENT S/WV DROPS ESE FROM EASTERN OK. OVERALL...GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH DEPICTING THE SPECIFICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PERTURBED WX PATTERN AND TONIGHT IS NO DIFFERENT. THE EURO LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WITH THE GFS FOLLOWING JUST
BEHIND. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO SEE THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY AND THIS FITS RECENT
TRENDS AND HOW THIS EARLY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TODAY.
WILL BUMP POPS UP FOR THIS AREA TO AROUND 70% WITH A BIG FOCUS OF
THE PRECIP TO OCCUR BEFORE MIDDAY. STILL...THERE WILL BE DECENT
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR FOR EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERN SECTIONS (HWY 82) WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL AND WILL FOLLOW GUID FOR THAT AREA. MAIN ISSUE HERE WILL
BE THAT THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BE ROBBING THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADV.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS EARLY START TO THE PRECIP AND
HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH MID/UPPER 80S EXPECTED. GFS
GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS WELL AND ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE IN
RESPONSE TO WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS EXPECTED.
AS FOR THE STRONG/SVR STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...POTENTIAL IS LOOKING
VERY LIMITED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND LOW END
INSTABILITY AS THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM AND BUILD SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONGER CONVECTION. THE CAVEAT TO THAT IS
THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING S/WV.
HOWEVER...MODEL DATA IS SHOWING THAT THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL RELAX
BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE YOU CAN NEVER RULE OUT A STRONG STORM THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHEN CONVECTION EXISTS...I WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THIS RISK TODAY BASED ON THE SEVERAL NEGATIVE ELEMENTS SUPPORTING
STRONGER STORMS. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A THREAT IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS SOME POTENTIAL LOOKS TO EXIST UNTIL MIDDAY FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS.
THERE WILL BE SOME CHANGE TO THE FORECAST (FROM WHAT HAS BEEN PREV
ADVERTISED) AS THE PREV THINKING OF LINGERING RAIN CHANCES DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL OCCUR. THE REASON IS THAT THE S/WV TODAY WILL HELP
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SERVE TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE TONIGHT-WED NIGHT
PERIOD. ACTUALLY...WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWN AND REMOVE POPS/WX FOR
THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THAT
TREND INTO THE EVENING. FOR WED...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
PRECIP FREE...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ISO/SCT
CONVECTION. /CME/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT DRYING OF OUR AIRMASS AND AT
PRESENT...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS TO DRY OUT AS FAR AS RAINFALL IS
CONCERNED.
THIS DOESN`T LOOK TO LAST LONG THOUGH AS BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND THE
HUMIDITY LOOK TO RETURN DURING THE WEEKEND AND HANG ON INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEFT BY A DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ABOUT ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...LOOKS TO AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GUIDANCE SUGGESTED HIGHS AND
LOWS LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...WHILE LOWS EACH NIGHT GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 87 68 91 68 / 68 21 12 6
MERIDIAN 87 68 91 65 / 67 22 13 7
VICKSBURG 87 68 91 67 / 70 16 11 6
HATTIESBURG 90 72 91 69 / 71 38 39 12
NATCHEZ 86 69 90 69 / 77 28 28 10
GREENVILLE 88 68 91 69 / 34 8 2 5
GREENWOOD 87 67 91 67 / 39 10 2 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KJAN 180819
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION HAS GOTTEN AN EARLY START AS DECENT
ACTIVITY HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST SECTIONS OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR SINCE 06Z. THIS IS FOCUSED IN A REGION OF THETA E ADV
ALONG WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SFC BOUNDARY
SITUATED JUST TO THE NW. ADDITIONALLY...ASCENT IN NEARING THE REGION
AS A DECENT S/WV DROPS ESE FROM EASTERN OK. OVERALL...GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH DEPICTING THE SPECIFICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PERTURBED WX PATTERN AND TONIGHT IS NO DIFFERENT. THE EURO LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WITH THE GFS FOLLOWING JUST
BEHIND. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO SEE THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY AND THIS FITS RECENT
TRENDS AND HOW THIS EARLY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TODAY.
WILL BUMP POPS UP FOR THIS AREA TO AROUND 70% WITH A BIG FOCUS OF
THE PRECIP TO OCCUR BEFORE MIDDAY. STILL...THERE WILL BE DECENT
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR FOR EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERN SECTIONS (HWY 82) WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL AND WILL FOLLOW GUID FOR THAT AREA. MAIN ISSUE HERE WILL
BE THAT THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BE ROBBING THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADV.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS EARLY START TO THE PRECIP AND
HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH MID/UPPER 80S EXPECTED. GFS
GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS WELL AND ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE IN
RESPONSE TO WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS EXPECTED.
AS FOR THE STRONG/SVR STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...POTENTIAL IS LOOKING
VERY LIMITED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND LOW END
INSTABILITY AS THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM AND BUILD SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONGER CONVECTION. THE CAVEAT TO THAT IS
THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING S/WV.
HOWEVER...MODEL DATA IS SHOWING THAT THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL RELAX
BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE YOU CAN NEVER RULE OUT A STRONG STORM THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHEN CONVECTION EXISTS...I WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THIS RISK TODAY BASED ON THE SEVERAL NEGATIVE ELEMENTS SUPPORTING
STRONGER STORMS. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A THREAT IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS SOME POTENTIAL LOOKS TO EXIST UNTIL MIDDAY FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS.
THERE WILL BE SOME CHANGE TO THE FORECAST (FROM WHAT HAS BEEN PREV
ADVERTISED) AS THE PREV THINKING OF LINGERING RAIN CHANCES DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL OCCUR. THE REASON IS THAT THE S/WV TODAY WILL HELP
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SERVE TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE TONIGHT-WED NIGHT
PERIOD. ACTUALLY...WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWN AND REMOVE POPS/WX FOR
THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THAT
TREND INTO THE EVENING. FOR WED...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
PRECIP FREE...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ISO/SCT
CONVECTION. /CME/
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT DRYING OF OUR AIRMASS AND AT
PRESENT...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS TO DRY OUT AS FAR AS RAINFALL IS
CONCERNED.
THIS DOESN`T LOOK TO LAST LONG THOUGH AS BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND THE
HUMIDITY LOOK TO RETURN DURING THE WEEKEND AND HANG ON INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEFT BY A DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ABOUT ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...LOOKS TO AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GUIDANCE SUGGESTED HIGHS AND
LOWS LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...WHILE LOWS EACH NIGHT GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...FOCUS THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING THE CONVECTION AND
ANY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT PRECIP. OUTSIDE THAT...VFR
CONDITIONS LOOKS TO EXIST. INITIALLY...WILL TIME IN LOWER CONDITIONS
FOR THE FEW SITES THAT LOOK TO GET IMPACTED BY PRECIP THROUGH
14-15Z. BEYOND THAT...THE PLAN IS TO COVER WITH VCTS FOR THE MAIN
TIME PERIOD STORMS COULD OCCUR. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 07-09Z
ESPECIALLY SINCE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR AS WELL. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 87 68 91 68 / 69 21 12 6
MERIDIAN 86 68 91 65 / 67 22 13 7
VICKSBURG 88 68 91 67 / 65 16 11 6
HATTIESBURG 90 72 91 69 / 71 38 39 12
NATCHEZ 86 69 90 69 / 71 28 28 10
GREENVILLE 88 68 91 69 / 34 8 2 5
GREENWOOD 87 67 91 67 / 39 10 2 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/19/
000
FXUS64 KJAN 180356 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1056 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE HERE TO AGAIN SLOW PRECIP/STORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST DATA/TRENDS SHOW NO
ACTIVITY IN THE CWA AT THIS TIME BUT SOME CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN
AREAS. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HRS ACROSS THE NW/N SECTIONS AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA E ADV DEVELOPS AND INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING LIFT FROM A ESE MOVING S/WV PUSHING OUT OF EASTERN OK.
THIS UPDATE WILL LOWER POPS/WX INITIALLY (ESP ACROSS THE S HALF)
THEN STEADILY INCREASE CHANCES AS WE APPROACH 2-4 AM. BEST CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED FOR AREAS N OF I-20. SKY COVER WAS ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH A TREND TO MORE
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY RE-DEVELOP AFTER
06-08Z ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AFTER
10-12Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD./15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 87 68 93 / 41 69 38 19
MERIDIAN 71 87 67 92 / 38 73 49 15
VICKSBURG 73 87 66 92 / 50 57 29 21
HATTIESBURG 73 91 71 94 / 21 56 41 40
NATCHEZ 72 87 70 91 / 24 61 29 42
GREENVILLE 72 87 67 92 / 60 48 15 12
GREENWOOD 71 86 66 91 / 63 50 19 12
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/15
000
FXUS64 KJAN 180046 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
746 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...THE AREA IS IN A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LULL AFTER ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER TODAY PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT LATER ON TONIGHT AS A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SHOW ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. /DL/
&&
.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY RE-DEVELOP AFTER
06-08Z ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AFTER
10-12Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD./15/
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND MORE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PERIOD AND HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED HIGH MAV MOS GUIDANCE
POPS...BUT INCREASED POPS SOME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN SOUTHWARD TRENDS IN GUIDANCE QPF
FIELDS. AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TRYING TO PINPOINT
SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE
DIFFICULT IN THIS PATTERN GIVEN LITTLE HELP FROM EXPLICIT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE. WILL THERE KEEP THE FORECAST MORE GENERAL WITH THE IDEA
THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BETTER DAYTIME HEATING MAY TAKE PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS TUESDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. /EC/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY. CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE COMPARED TO THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER IN THE WORK WEEK.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AS THE RIDGE BUILT IN FRIDAY...HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM 95-97. GIVEN EXPECTED WET GROUND CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME...FELT THESE WERE TOO HIGH. THEREFORE I KNOCKED OFF 2-3
DEGREES AND NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM 92-94 ON FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH GUIDANCE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED
REASONABLE. /19/EC/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DL/15/EC/19
000
FXUS64 KJAN 172131
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
431 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THERE HAVE BEEN TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MS INDUCED A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WORKED ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MS.
MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR WERE CORRECT IN SHOWING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL MS...AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW IS NOW FORCING THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MANAGED
TO INITIATE NEW SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSS THE
ARKLATEX...BUT WHAT WAS A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTM DEGENERATED INTO
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVED INTO AND AREA OF NEGATIVE LOW
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AND WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE MS
RIVER. AS THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER EAST...THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STORMS OVER CENTRL MS THIS EVENING.
FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND MORE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PERIOD AND HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED HIGH MAV MOS GUIDANCE
POPS...BUT INCREASED POPS SOME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN SOUTHWARD TRENDS IN GUIDANCE QPF
FIELDS. AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TRYING TO PINPOINT
SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE
DIFFICULT IN THIS PATTERN GIVEN LITTLE HELP FROM EXPLICIT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE. WILL THERE KEEP THE FORECAST MORE GENERAL WITH THE IDEA
THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BETTER DAYTIME HEATING MAY TAKE PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS TUESDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. /EC/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY. CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE COMPARED TO THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER IN THE WORK WEEK.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AS THE RIDGE BUILT IN FRIDAY...HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM 95-97. GIVEN EXPECTED WET GROUND CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME...FELT THESE WERE TOO HIGH. THEREFORE I KNOCKED OFF 2-3
DEGREES AND NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM 92-94 ON FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH GUIDANCE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED
REASONABLE. /19/EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING STORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AND SOME RISK FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED PRECIP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 87 68 93 / 52 69 38 19
MERIDIAN 71 87 67 92 / 52 73 49 15
VICKSBURG 73 87 66 92 / 53 57 29 21
HATTIESBURG 73 91 71 94 / 29 56 41 40
NATCHEZ 72 87 70 91 / 45 61 29 42
GREENVILLE 72 87 67 92 / 71 48 15 12
GREENWOOD 71 86 66 91 / 73 50 19 12
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KJAN 171556
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1056 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
OVERALL..,ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS HAS STABILIZED AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT FUTURE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM
THIS COMPLEX OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-20.
THE OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ARKLATEX. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST
FURTHER DECAY OF COMPLEX WITH A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY HELPING TO INITIATE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIMITING FACTORS
HOWEVER IN ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX ARE THE NEGATIVE LOW-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...AND
RELATIVE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THAT IS LIMITING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH THIS IN MIND...STILL EXPECT GREATEST
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SCENARIO.
THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FORECAST TODAY AS TIMING
SPECIFICS ARE VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO POOR REPRESENTATION OF THE
CURRENT S/WV`S AND MCV FEATURES IN THE MODEL DATA. STILL...THE
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE S/WV FEATURES THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND
BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.
YESTERDAY OFFERED GREATER STORM/PRECIP COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED AND
WAS LIKELY THE KICKOFF DAY FOR THIS UPCOMING WETTER PERIOD.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOWED A MARKED INCREASE FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO
THE AFTERNOON AS PWS REACHED 2 IN. LOOK FOR THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS
TO HANG AROUND WITH PWS RANGING FROM 1.75-2.0 INCHES. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION TO
INSTIGATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FIRST MCV JUST PUSHED
INTO AL AND WAS GENERATED BY THE AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CWA. EARLY THIS MORNING...A MCV IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AR AND WILL LIKELY AID IN PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE PUSHING
ACROSS OK AND THIS WILL TOO HELP SUPPORT CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W/NW AREAS. IF THAT WASN`T
ENOUGH...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE IN THE
PERTURBED FLOW AND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGH TUE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERAL WITH TIMING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW EACH FEATURE WILL EVOLVE AND FOLLOW CLOSE TO
THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. FOR TODAY...I CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE REVISITED
BASED ON HOW STORM TRENDS THIS MORNING GO.
TODAY SEEMS TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALONG WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MIXED IN. THE REASON IS THAT SOME WARMER SFC TEMPS MAY
BE REALIZED AS HIGHS PEAK AROUND 90 WHICH COULD RESULT IN NEAR 3000
J/KG OF SBCAPE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ALONG
WITH SOME STRONGER FLOW (25-30KTS) AT 500MB WHICH SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. DUE TO THIS...WILL MENTION THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM GUSTY
WINDS 50-60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. YESTERDAY...LIGHTNING WAS ALSO
FREQUENT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND THAT MAY AGAIN BE THE CASE.
/CME/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPEDE UPON THE CWA ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. CONVECTION FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE COMPARED TO THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WORK WEEK.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AS THE RIDGE BUILT IN FRIDAY...HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM 95-97. GIVEN EXPECTED WET GROUND CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME...FELT THESE WERE TOO HIGH. THEREFORE I KNOCKED OFF 2-3
DEGREES AND NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM 92-94 ON FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH GUIDANCE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED
REASONABLE. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR VFR TODAY...THE
EXCEPTION BEING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...LCLY IFR VSBYS...WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS
OCCUR. AN AREA OF LATE MORNING SHWRS/TSTMS EXISTS OVER NRN/NERN
ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING STORM
CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND SOME RISK FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIP. /CME/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 92 71 89 70 / 36 42 49 50
MERIDIAN 91 70 89 69 / 49 47 57 57
VICKSBURG 92 72 89 70 / 29 45 50 47
HATTIESBURG 92 72 91 72 / 36 23 36 31
NATCHEZ 90 71 89 70 / 26 25 37 32
GREENVILLE 91 73 87 70 / 51 67 66 40
GREENWOOD 90 71 88 69 / 54 66 68 41
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
