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000
FXUS64 KJAN 311117
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLAMISS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...BUT DEVELOPING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED
ON A CONSENSUS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER
THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY (~100-300 J/KG
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE) FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
THAT WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD OVERWHELM THE RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...THE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ABOUT AS POOR AS
WE WILL SEE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND HAVE KEPT OUT A
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR NOW. GIVEN
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING OVERLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AVERAGE TOTALS AROUND HALF AN INCH.

OF GREATER CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY COLD
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE INTENSIFYING
STORM SYSTEM...AND SOME OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FELT IN THE
ARKLAMISS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER...FOLKS
HEADING OUT FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING WILL BE REMINDED IT IS STILL
WINTER. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO MOVE OUT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL REVEAL THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION GIVEN
POSITIVE SFC-BASED CAPE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE INCONSEQUENTIAL.
/EC/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY MONDAY AND THURSDAY
PRESENTED THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH SNOW BEING
POSSIBLE OR AT LEAST THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION COOL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SYSTEMS RARELY CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY/DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z MONDAY. WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT CARRYING SNOW UNTIL 15Z FOR
THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES. SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL OUTPUT SHOW THE
MOISTURE MOVING OUT EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUING BRIEFLY
BEYOND 12Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER WAY. WENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS AND LEFT THE AREA DRY.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH SOME LOWER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. SURFACE RIDGE PASSES BRIEFLY BRINGING SOME BRISK
CANADIAN AIR. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS WITH A WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES
EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. TWO
UPPER TROUGHS PASS VERY QUICKLY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THE
EARLIER RUN HAD THE FEATURE INLAND BUT 6Z RUN HAS THE SURFACE
FEATURE A LITTLE FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF...WHICH COULD BRING COLD
AIR AND WINTER PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. DID NOT MENTION ANY
WINTER PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. A FEW MORE RUNS MAY BE
NEEDED. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MAY HANG ON WITH
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY MVFR
CATEGORY STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE GLH/JAN/HBG
CORRIDOR AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WELL IN THE GLH/GWO AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. /EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  48  66  35 /   1  23  88  59
MERIDIAN      58  44  64  38 /   1  14  75  56
VICKSBURG     60  50  65  35 /   2  39  91  53
HATTIESBURG   61  48  67  42 /   2  17  61  50
NATCHEZ       61  51  67  36 /   1  36  86  57
GREENVILLE    55  47  61  31 /   1  49  95  37
GREENWOOD     57  48  61  32 /   1  26  91  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/7






000
FXUS64 KJAN 311117
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLAMISS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...BUT DEVELOPING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED
ON A CONSENSUS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER
THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY (~100-300 J/KG
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE) FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
THAT WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD OVERWHELM THE RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...THE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ABOUT AS POOR AS
WE WILL SEE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND HAVE KEPT OUT A
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR NOW. GIVEN
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING OVERLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AVERAGE TOTALS AROUND HALF AN INCH.

OF GREATER CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY COLD
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE INTENSIFYING
STORM SYSTEM...AND SOME OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FELT IN THE
ARKLAMISS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER...FOLKS
HEADING OUT FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING WILL BE REMINDED IT IS STILL
WINTER. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO MOVE OUT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL REVEAL THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION GIVEN
POSITIVE SFC-BASED CAPE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE INCONSEQUENTIAL.
/EC/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY MONDAY AND THURSDAY
PRESENTED THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH SNOW BEING
POSSIBLE OR AT LEAST THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION COOL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SYSTEMS RARELY CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY/DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z MONDAY. WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT CARRYING SNOW UNTIL 15Z FOR
THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES. SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL OUTPUT SHOW THE
MOISTURE MOVING OUT EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUING BRIEFLY
BEYOND 12Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER WAY. WENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS AND LEFT THE AREA DRY.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH SOME LOWER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. SURFACE RIDGE PASSES BRIEFLY BRINGING SOME BRISK
CANADIAN AIR. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS WITH A WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES
EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. TWO
UPPER TROUGHS PASS VERY QUICKLY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THE
EARLIER RUN HAD THE FEATURE INLAND BUT 6Z RUN HAS THE SURFACE
FEATURE A LITTLE FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF...WHICH COULD BRING COLD
AIR AND WINTER PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. DID NOT MENTION ANY
WINTER PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. A FEW MORE RUNS MAY BE
NEEDED. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MAY HANG ON WITH
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY MVFR
CATEGORY STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE GLH/JAN/HBG
CORRIDOR AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WELL IN THE GLH/GWO AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. /EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  48  66  35 /   1  23  88  59
MERIDIAN      58  44  64  38 /   1  14  75  56
VICKSBURG     60  50  65  35 /   2  39  91  53
HATTIESBURG   61  48  67  42 /   2  17  61  50
NATCHEZ       61  51  67  36 /   1  36  86  57
GREENVILLE    55  47  61  31 /   1  49  95  37
GREENWOOD     57  48  61  32 /   1  26  91  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/7






000
FXUS64 KJAN 311117
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLAMISS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...BUT DEVELOPING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED
ON A CONSENSUS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER
THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY (~100-300 J/KG
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE) FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
THAT WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD OVERWHELM THE RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...THE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ABOUT AS POOR AS
WE WILL SEE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND HAVE KEPT OUT A
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR NOW. GIVEN
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING OVERLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AVERAGE TOTALS AROUND HALF AN INCH.

OF GREATER CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY COLD
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE INTENSIFYING
STORM SYSTEM...AND SOME OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FELT IN THE
ARKLAMISS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER...FOLKS
HEADING OUT FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING WILL BE REMINDED IT IS STILL
WINTER. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO MOVE OUT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL REVEAL THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION GIVEN
POSITIVE SFC-BASED CAPE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE INCONSEQUENTIAL.
/EC/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY MONDAY AND THURSDAY
PRESENTED THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH SNOW BEING
POSSIBLE OR AT LEAST THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION COOL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SYSTEMS RARELY CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY/DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z MONDAY. WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT CARRYING SNOW UNTIL 15Z FOR
THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES. SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL OUTPUT SHOW THE
MOISTURE MOVING OUT EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUING BRIEFLY
BEYOND 12Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER WAY. WENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS AND LEFT THE AREA DRY.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH SOME LOWER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. SURFACE RIDGE PASSES BRIEFLY BRINGING SOME BRISK
CANADIAN AIR. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS WITH A WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES
EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. TWO
UPPER TROUGHS PASS VERY QUICKLY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THE
EARLIER RUN HAD THE FEATURE INLAND BUT 6Z RUN HAS THE SURFACE
FEATURE A LITTLE FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF...WHICH COULD BRING COLD
AIR AND WINTER PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. DID NOT MENTION ANY
WINTER PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. A FEW MORE RUNS MAY BE
NEEDED. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MAY HANG ON WITH
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY MVFR
CATEGORY STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE GLH/JAN/HBG
CORRIDOR AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WELL IN THE GLH/GWO AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. /EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  48  66  35 /   1  23  88  59
MERIDIAN      58  44  64  38 /   1  14  75  56
VICKSBURG     60  50  65  35 /   2  39  91  53
HATTIESBURG   61  48  67  42 /   2  17  61  50
NATCHEZ       61  51  67  36 /   1  36  86  57
GREENVILLE    55  47  61  31 /   1  49  95  37
GREENWOOD     57  48  61  32 /   1  26  91  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/7






000
FXUS64 KJAN 311117
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLAMISS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...BUT DEVELOPING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED
ON A CONSENSUS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER
THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY (~100-300 J/KG
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE) FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
THAT WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD OVERWHELM THE RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...THE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ABOUT AS POOR AS
WE WILL SEE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND HAVE KEPT OUT A
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR NOW. GIVEN
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING OVERLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AVERAGE TOTALS AROUND HALF AN INCH.

OF GREATER CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY COLD
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE INTENSIFYING
STORM SYSTEM...AND SOME OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FELT IN THE
ARKLAMISS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER...FOLKS
HEADING OUT FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING WILL BE REMINDED IT IS STILL
WINTER. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO MOVE OUT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL REVEAL THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION GIVEN
POSITIVE SFC-BASED CAPE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE INCONSEQUENTIAL.
/EC/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY MONDAY AND THURSDAY
PRESENTED THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH SNOW BEING
POSSIBLE OR AT LEAST THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION COOL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

SYSTEMS RARELY CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY/DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z MONDAY. WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT CARRYING SNOW UNTIL 15Z FOR
THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES. SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL OUTPUT SHOW THE
MOISTURE MOVING OUT EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUING BRIEFLY
BEYOND 12Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS EITHER WAY. WENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS AND LEFT THE AREA DRY.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH SOME LOWER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. SURFACE RIDGE PASSES BRIEFLY BRINGING SOME BRISK
CANADIAN AIR. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS WITH A WEAK WAVE THAT PASSES
EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. TWO
UPPER TROUGHS PASS VERY QUICKLY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THE
EARLIER RUN HAD THE FEATURE INLAND BUT 6Z RUN HAS THE SURFACE
FEATURE A LITTLE FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF...WHICH COULD BRING COLD
AIR AND WINTER PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. DID NOT MENTION ANY
WINTER PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. A FEW MORE RUNS MAY BE
NEEDED. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MAY HANG ON WITH
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY MVFR
CATEGORY STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE GLH/JAN/HBG
CORRIDOR AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WELL IN THE GLH/GWO AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. /EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  48  66  35 /   1  23  88  59
MERIDIAN      58  44  64  38 /   1  14  75  56
VICKSBURG     60  50  65  35 /   2  39  91  53
HATTIESBURG   61  48  67  42 /   2  17  61  50
NATCHEZ       61  51  67  36 /   1  36  86  57
GREENVILLE    55  47  61  31 /   1  49  95  37
GREENWOOD     57  48  61  32 /   1  26  91  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/7






000
FXUS64 KJAN 310218 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
818 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AROUND TO THE SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS./26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EVEN CALM AT TIMES
IN SOME LOCALES...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL PREVENT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE E/ESE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING AROUND TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DELAY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SET
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/NW GULF. MEANWHILE A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH...
SUGGESTING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS RAW MODEL DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA. IN SPITE
OF THE MEAGER INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FLURRIES OVER A LARGER AREA...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS ADDED FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA.
THIS IS NOT A SITUATION THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
FEW BRIEF FLURRIES. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  60  48  64 /   0   0  44  88
MERIDIAN      28  59  45  62 /   0   0  29  76
VICKSBURG     32  60  50  64 /   0   5  49  91
HATTIESBURG   32  62  47  67 /   0   0  31  61
NATCHEZ       33  61  51  66 /   0   5  51  86
GREENVILLE    31  55  46  61 /   0   5  53  95
GREENWOOD     28  59  47  61 /   0   3  44  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 302217
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EVEN CALM AT TIMES
IN SOME LOCALES...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL PREVENT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE E/ESE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING AROUND TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DELAY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SET
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/NW GULF. MEANWHILE A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH...
SUGGESTING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS RAW MODEL DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA. IN SPITE
OF THE MEAGER INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FLURRIES OVER A LARGER AREA...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS ADDED FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA.
THIS IS NOT A SITUATION THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
FEW BRIEF FLURRIES. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/


&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  60  48  64 /   0   0  44  88
MERIDIAN      28  59  45  62 /   0   0  29  76
VICKSBURG     32  60  50  64 /   0   5  49  91
HATTIESBURG   32  62  47  67 /   0   0  31  61
NATCHEZ       33  61  51  66 /   0   5  51  86
GREENVILLE    31  55  46  61 /   0   5  53  95
GREENWOOD     28  59  47  61 /   0   3  44  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/EC





000
FXUS64 KJAN 302217
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EVEN CALM AT TIMES
IN SOME LOCALES...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL PREVENT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE E/ESE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING AROUND TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DELAY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SET
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/NW GULF. MEANWHILE A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH...
SUGGESTING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS RAW MODEL DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA. IN SPITE
OF THE MEAGER INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FLURRIES OVER A LARGER AREA...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS ADDED FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA.
THIS IS NOT A SITUATION THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
FEW BRIEF FLURRIES. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/


&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  60  48  64 /   0   0  44  88
MERIDIAN      28  59  45  62 /   0   0  29  76
VICKSBURG     32  60  50  64 /   0   5  49  91
HATTIESBURG   32  62  47  67 /   0   0  31  61
NATCHEZ       33  61  51  66 /   0   5  51  86
GREENVILLE    31  55  46  61 /   0   5  53  95
GREENWOOD     28  59  47  61 /   0   3  44  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/EC





000
FXUS64 KJAN 302217
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EVEN CALM AT TIMES
IN SOME LOCALES...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL PREVENT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE E/ESE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING AROUND TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DELAY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SET
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/NW GULF. MEANWHILE A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH...
SUGGESTING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS RAW MODEL DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA. IN SPITE
OF THE MEAGER INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FLURRIES OVER A LARGER AREA...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS ADDED FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA.
THIS IS NOT A SITUATION THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
FEW BRIEF FLURRIES. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/


&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  60  48  64 /   0   0  44  88
MERIDIAN      28  59  45  62 /   0   0  29  76
VICKSBURG     32  60  50  64 /   0   5  49  91
HATTIESBURG   32  62  47  67 /   0   0  31  61
NATCHEZ       33  61  51  66 /   0   5  51  86
GREENVILLE    31  55  46  61 /   0   5  53  95
GREENWOOD     28  59  47  61 /   0   3  44  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/EC





000
FXUS64 KJAN 302217
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EVEN CALM AT TIMES
IN SOME LOCALES...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL PREVENT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE E/ESE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING AROUND TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DELAY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SET
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/NW GULF. MEANWHILE A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH...
SUGGESTING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS RAW MODEL DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA. IN SPITE
OF THE MEAGER INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FLURRIES OVER A LARGER AREA...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS ADDED FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA.
THIS IS NOT A SITUATION THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
FEW BRIEF FLURRIES. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/


&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  60  48  64 /   0   0  44  88
MERIDIAN      28  59  45  62 /   0   0  29  76
VICKSBURG     32  60  50  64 /   0   5  49  91
HATTIESBURG   32  62  47  67 /   0   0  31  61
NATCHEZ       33  61  51  66 /   0   5  51  86
GREENVILLE    31  55  46  61 /   0   5  53  95
GREENWOOD     28  59  47  61 /   0   3  44  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/EC





000
FXUS64 KJAN 301610 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...THE SKY HAS CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA...
BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TEMPS ARE STILL ON TARGET TO RISE
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL BUMP UP HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY 2-3 DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /17/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ON THE SUBTLE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BEFORE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH NOW RESIDES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  LOOK
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST.

WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE NATION`S MID-SECTION.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL IN TURN RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...

IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. AFTER TRENDING HIGHER
WITH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN CONSENSUS
FOR GREATER NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION AIDED BY INTERACTION
WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. THIS NORMALLY COULD SPELL
TROUBLE IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GIVEN FAVORABLE FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS...BUT UNDERWHELMING MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION.

SO THAT THERE ARE NO SURPRISES...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH
IMPROVED SAMPLING OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...GUIDANCE MAY
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED WITH MOISTURE RETURN.
AS IT STANDS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ROUGHLY 100-300 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE SFC LI WITH SFC DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEG
F ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. MOREOVER...CIPS GUIDANCE ANALOGS FOR
THIS EVENT INDICATE AT LEAST A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY FROM NE LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS WHERE MODELS
HAVE BEEN SIGNALING FOR THE GREATEST FRONTAL FORCING MATCHED UP WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTN. FOR NOW...SEVERE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN HWO/ GRAPHICS AT THIS POINT AND HAVE JUST ADDED
THUNDER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD ALSO DRAW COLDER AIR
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/17/19/EC






000
FXUS64 KJAN 301610 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...THE SKY HAS CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA...
BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TEMPS ARE STILL ON TARGET TO RISE
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL BUMP UP HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY 2-3 DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /17/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ON THE SUBTLE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BEFORE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH NOW RESIDES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  LOOK
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST.

WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE NATION`S MID-SECTION.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL IN TURN RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...

IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. AFTER TRENDING HIGHER
WITH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN CONSENSUS
FOR GREATER NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION AIDED BY INTERACTION
WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. THIS NORMALLY COULD SPELL
TROUBLE IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GIVEN FAVORABLE FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS...BUT UNDERWHELMING MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION.

SO THAT THERE ARE NO SURPRISES...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH
IMPROVED SAMPLING OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...GUIDANCE MAY
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED WITH MOISTURE RETURN.
AS IT STANDS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ROUGHLY 100-300 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE SFC LI WITH SFC DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEG
F ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. MOREOVER...CIPS GUIDANCE ANALOGS FOR
THIS EVENT INDICATE AT LEAST A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY FROM NE LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS WHERE MODELS
HAVE BEEN SIGNALING FOR THE GREATEST FRONTAL FORCING MATCHED UP WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTN. FOR NOW...SEVERE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN HWO/ GRAPHICS AT THIS POINT AND HAVE JUST ADDED
THUNDER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD ALSO DRAW COLDER AIR
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/17/19/EC






000
FXUS64 KJAN 301610 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...THE SKY HAS CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA...
BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TEMPS ARE STILL ON TARGET TO RISE
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL BUMP UP HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY 2-3 DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /17/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ON THE SUBTLE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BEFORE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH NOW RESIDES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  LOOK
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST.

WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE NATION`S MID-SECTION.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL IN TURN RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...

IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. AFTER TRENDING HIGHER
WITH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN CONSENSUS
FOR GREATER NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION AIDED BY INTERACTION
WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. THIS NORMALLY COULD SPELL
TROUBLE IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GIVEN FAVORABLE FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS...BUT UNDERWHELMING MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION.

SO THAT THERE ARE NO SURPRISES...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH
IMPROVED SAMPLING OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...GUIDANCE MAY
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED WITH MOISTURE RETURN.
AS IT STANDS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ROUGHLY 100-300 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE SFC LI WITH SFC DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEG
F ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. MOREOVER...CIPS GUIDANCE ANALOGS FOR
THIS EVENT INDICATE AT LEAST A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY FROM NE LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS WHERE MODELS
HAVE BEEN SIGNALING FOR THE GREATEST FRONTAL FORCING MATCHED UP WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTN. FOR NOW...SEVERE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN HWO/ GRAPHICS AT THIS POINT AND HAVE JUST ADDED
THUNDER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD ALSO DRAW COLDER AIR
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/17/19/EC






000
FXUS64 KJAN 301610 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...THE SKY HAS CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA...
BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TEMPS ARE STILL ON TARGET TO RISE
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL BUMP UP HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY 2-3 DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /17/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ON THE SUBTLE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BEFORE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH NOW RESIDES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  LOOK
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST.

WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE NATION`S MID-SECTION.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL IN TURN RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...

IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. AFTER TRENDING HIGHER
WITH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN CONSENSUS
FOR GREATER NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION AIDED BY INTERACTION
WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. THIS NORMALLY COULD SPELL
TROUBLE IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GIVEN FAVORABLE FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS...BUT UNDERWHELMING MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION.

SO THAT THERE ARE NO SURPRISES...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH
IMPROVED SAMPLING OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...GUIDANCE MAY
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED WITH MOISTURE RETURN.
AS IT STANDS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ROUGHLY 100-300 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE SFC LI WITH SFC DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEG
F ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. MOREOVER...CIPS GUIDANCE ANALOGS FOR
THIS EVENT INDICATE AT LEAST A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY FROM NE LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS WHERE MODELS
HAVE BEEN SIGNALING FOR THE GREATEST FRONTAL FORCING MATCHED UP WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTN. FOR NOW...SEVERE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN HWO/ GRAPHICS AT THIS POINT AND HAVE JUST ADDED
THUNDER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD ALSO DRAW COLDER AIR
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/17/19/EC






000
FXUS64 KJAN 301108
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
508 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH...STRATUS WILL
CLEAR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS RACING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S.

MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ON THE SUBTLE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BEFORE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH NOW RESIDES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  LOOK
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST.

WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE NATION`S MID-SECTION.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL IN TURN RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...

IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. AFTER TRENDING HIGHER
WITH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN CONSENSUS
FOR GREATER NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION AIDED BY INTERACTION
WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. THIS NORMALLY COULD SPELL
TROUBLE IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GIVEN FAVORABLE FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS...BUT UNDERWHELMING MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION.

SO THAT THERE ARE NO SURPRISES...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH
IMPROVED SAMPLING OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...GUIDANCE MAY
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED WITH MOISTURE RETURN.
AS IT STANDS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ROUGHLY 100-300 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE SFC LI WITH SFC DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEG
F ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. MOREOVER...CIPS GUIDANCE ANALOGS FOR
THIS EVENT INDICATE AT LEAST A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY FROM NE LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS WHERE MODELS
HAVE BEEN SIGNALING FOR THE GREATEST FRONTAL FORCING MATCHED UP WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTN. FOR NOW...SEVERE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN HWO/ GRAPHICS AT THIS POINT AND HAVE JUST ADDED
THUNDER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD ALSO DRAW COLDER AIR
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
AND STRATUS AFFECTING NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR EAST AND OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME
MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  31  59  45 /   0   0   7  39
MERIDIAN      55  27  56  41 /   0   0   5  25
VICKSBURG     55  33  59  48 /   0   0   7  51
HATTIESBURG   58  31  60  46 /   0   0   6  24
NATCHEZ       55  34  59  51 /   0   0   8  50
GREENVILLE    50  30  55  45 /   0   0   7  45
GREENWOOD     51  28  56  45 /   0   0   6  44

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

19/EC/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 301108
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
508 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH...STRATUS WILL
CLEAR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS RACING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S.

MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ON THE SUBTLE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BEFORE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH NOW RESIDES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  LOOK
FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST.

WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE NATION`S MID-SECTION.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL IN TURN RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...

IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. AFTER TRENDING HIGHER
WITH SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN CONSENSUS
FOR GREATER NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION AIDED BY INTERACTION
WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. THIS NORMALLY COULD SPELL
TROUBLE IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GIVEN FAVORABLE FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS...BUT UNDERWHELMING MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION.

SO THAT THERE ARE NO SURPRISES...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH
IMPROVED SAMPLING OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...GUIDANCE MAY
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED WITH MOISTURE RETURN.
AS IT STANDS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ROUGHLY 100-300 J/KG MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE SFC LI WITH SFC DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 DEG
F ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. MOREOVER...CIPS GUIDANCE ANALOGS FOR
THIS EVENT INDICATE AT LEAST A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY FROM NE LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS WHERE MODELS
HAVE BEEN SIGNALING FOR THE GREATEST FRONTAL FORCING MATCHED UP WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTN. FOR NOW...SEVERE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN HWO/ GRAPHICS AT THIS POINT AND HAVE JUST ADDED
THUNDER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD ALSO DRAW COLDER AIR
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
AND STRATUS AFFECTING NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR EAST AND OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME
MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  31  59  45 /   0   0   7  39
MERIDIAN      55  27  56  41 /   0   0   5  25
VICKSBURG     55  33  59  48 /   0   0   7  51
HATTIESBURG   58  31  60  46 /   0   0   6  24
NATCHEZ       55  34  59  51 /   0   0   8  50
GREENVILLE    50  30  55  45 /   0   0   7  45
GREENWOOD     51  28  56  45 /   0   0   6  44

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

19/EC/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300145 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
745 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY 30/12Z./26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION AND THE RATHER DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENT SHOWS NO
PRECIPITATION IN OUR VICINITY...AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
KEEPS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURE PROFILES
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ANY TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND
THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  55  33  58 /   5   0   0   7
MERIDIAN      40  55  30  57 /   7   0   0   4
VICKSBURG     41  55  34  58 /   5   0   0   8
HATTIESBURG   43  59  33  61 /   8   0   0   4
NATCHEZ       42  55  36  60 /   5   0   0   8
GREENVILLE    37  51  32  53 /   3   0   0   6
GREENWOOD     37  52  31  56 /   4   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 300145 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
745 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY 30/12Z./26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION AND THE RATHER DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENT SHOWS NO
PRECIPITATION IN OUR VICINITY...AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
KEEPS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURE PROFILES
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ANY TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND
THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  55  33  58 /   5   0   0   7
MERIDIAN      40  55  30  57 /   7   0   0   4
VICKSBURG     41  55  34  58 /   5   0   0   8
HATTIESBURG   43  59  33  61 /   8   0   0   4
NATCHEZ       42  55  36  60 /   5   0   0   8
GREENVILLE    37  51  32  53 /   3   0   0   6
GREENWOOD     37  52  31  56 /   4   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 300145 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
745 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY 30/12Z./26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION AND THE RATHER DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENT SHOWS NO
PRECIPITATION IN OUR VICINITY...AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
KEEPS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURE PROFILES
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ANY TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND
THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  55  33  58 /   5   0   0   7
MERIDIAN      40  55  30  57 /   7   0   0   4
VICKSBURG     41  55  34  58 /   5   0   0   8
HATTIESBURG   43  59  33  61 /   8   0   0   4
NATCHEZ       42  55  36  60 /   5   0   0   8
GREENVILLE    37  51  32  53 /   3   0   0   6
GREENWOOD     37  52  31  56 /   4   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 300145 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
745 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY 30/12Z./26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION AND THE RATHER DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENT SHOWS NO
PRECIPITATION IN OUR VICINITY...AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
KEEPS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURE PROFILES
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ANY TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND
THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  55  33  58 /   5   0   0   7
MERIDIAN      40  55  30  57 /   7   0   0   4
VICKSBURG     41  55  34  58 /   5   0   0   8
HATTIESBURG   43  59  33  61 /   8   0   0   4
NATCHEZ       42  55  36  60 /   5   0   0   8
GREENVILLE    37  51  32  53 /   3   0   0   6
GREENWOOD     37  52  31  56 /   4   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 292130
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION AND THE RATHER DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENT SHOWS NO
PRECIPITATION IN OUR VICINITY...AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
KEEPS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURE PROFILES
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ANY TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND
THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS OF MID AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
AGAIN PREVAIL FRIDAY MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  55  33  58 /   5   0   0   7
MERIDIAN      40  55  30  57 /   7   0   0   4
VICKSBURG     41  55  34  58 /   5   0   0   8
HATTIESBURG   43  59  33  61 /   8   0   0   4
NATCHEZ       42  55  36  60 /   5   0   0   8
GREENVILLE    37  51  32  53 /   3   0   0   6
GREENWOOD     37  52  31  56 /   4   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/EC





000
FXUS64 KJAN 292130
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION AND THE RATHER DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENT SHOWS NO
PRECIPITATION IN OUR VICINITY...AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
KEEPS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAINS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURE PROFILES
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ANY TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND
THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS OF MID AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
AGAIN PREVAIL FRIDAY MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  55  33  58 /   5   0   0   7
MERIDIAN      40  55  30  57 /   7   0   0   4
VICKSBURG     41  55  34  58 /   5   0   0   8
HATTIESBURG   43  59  33  61 /   8   0   0   4
NATCHEZ       42  55  36  60 /   5   0   0   8
GREENVILLE    37  51  32  53 /   3   0   0   6
GREENWOOD     37  52  31  56 /   4   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/EC




000
FXUS64 KJAN 291625 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES HAVE NOW
PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ARE
STILL HANGING ON ACROSS PART OF SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA...BUT MUCH
OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OR SEEING ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA...AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY
IN THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA...SO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF ARE QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND
TO UPDATE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE FRONT...A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS
WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...AS THE RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.  LOWS
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE
50S...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE 30S.
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A FAST/
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND ESTABLISHMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...BUT AT THE
SAME TIME THERE HAS BEEN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRESSURE FALLS
AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION WITH THE GFS SHOWING RADICAL RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES.
FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
A MORE SUPPRESSED SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN VERY LIMITED
CHANCES FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING COULD BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT EXPECT LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO BE FACTORS IN KEEPING RAINFALL FROM BEING OVERLY HEAVY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS
BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL
FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/19/EC/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 291625 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES HAVE NOW
PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ARE
STILL HANGING ON ACROSS PART OF SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA...BUT MUCH
OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OR SEEING ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA...AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY
IN THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA...SO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF ARE QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND
TO UPDATE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE FRONT...A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS
WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...AS THE RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.  LOWS
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE
50S...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE 30S.
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A FAST/
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND ESTABLISHMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...BUT AT THE
SAME TIME THERE HAS BEEN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRESSURE FALLS
AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION WITH THE GFS SHOWING RADICAL RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES.
FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
A MORE SUPPRESSED SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN VERY LIMITED
CHANCES FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING COULD BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT EXPECT LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO BE FACTORS IN KEEPING RAINFALL FROM BEING OVERLY HEAVY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS
BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL
FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/19/EC/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 291625 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES HAVE NOW
PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ARE
STILL HANGING ON ACROSS PART OF SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA...BUT MUCH
OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OR SEEING ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA...AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY
IN THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA...SO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF ARE QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND
TO UPDATE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE FRONT...A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS
WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...AS THE RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.  LOWS
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE
50S...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE 30S.
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A FAST/
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND ESTABLISHMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...BUT AT THE
SAME TIME THERE HAS BEEN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRESSURE FALLS
AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION WITH THE GFS SHOWING RADICAL RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES.
FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
A MORE SUPPRESSED SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN VERY LIMITED
CHANCES FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING COULD BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT EXPECT LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO BE FACTORS IN KEEPING RAINFALL FROM BEING OVERLY HEAVY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS
BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL
FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/19/EC/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 291625 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES HAVE NOW
PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ARE
STILL HANGING ON ACROSS PART OF SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA...BUT MUCH
OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OR SEEING ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE
COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA...AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY
IN THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA...SO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF ARE QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND
TO UPDATE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE FRONT...A COLDER DRIER AIRMASS
WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  MUCH OF
THE CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...AS THE RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.  LOWS
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BUILD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE
50S...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE 30S.
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A FAST/
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND ESTABLISHMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...BUT AT THE
SAME TIME THERE HAS BEEN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRESSURE FALLS
AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION WITH THE GFS SHOWING RADICAL RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES.
FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
A MORE SUPPRESSED SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN VERY LIMITED
CHANCES FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FAIRLY STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING COULD BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT EXPECT LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO BE FACTORS IN KEEPING RAINFALL FROM BEING OVERLY HEAVY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL WHILE USHERING IN COLDER AIR.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR COULD BE DRAWN
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT - MORE THAN IS
BEING SEEN IN NWP GUIDANCE - AND THIS TREND WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY CUT OFF OVER THE BAJA REGION TO EJECT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW SUBSEQUENT SURGES OF COLD AIR INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE SOME RISK FOR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT
FOR NOW THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS FOR ALL LIQUID. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL
FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/19/EC/





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