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000
FXUS64 KJAN 010155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE ARE JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON
MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LIKELY LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY FOG...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER LATER ON
TONIGHT AND MENTION PATCHY FOG. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PATCHY CIGS
~3000 FT...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
RANGE SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE FOG ISSUES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. EXPECT
FOG/STRATUS TO MIX OUT ~15-16Z TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED AFTN SHRA/TSRA
CONFINED SOUTH OF TVR-JAN AND W OF JAN-HBG. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE
ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES THAT MODELS PROG WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THIS RIDGE WL SERVE TO MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DELAY HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH OUR VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AND SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH
OF OUR CWA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS
A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY. LASTLY, IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG
PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/EC/22/ALLEN






000
FXUS64 KJAN 010155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE ARE JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON
MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LIKELY LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY FOG...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER LATER ON
TONIGHT AND MENTION PATCHY FOG. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PATCHY CIGS
~3000 FT...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
RANGE SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE FOG ISSUES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. EXPECT
FOG/STRATUS TO MIX OUT ~15-16Z TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED AFTN SHRA/TSRA
CONFINED SOUTH OF TVR-JAN AND W OF JAN-HBG. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE
ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES THAT MODELS PROG WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THIS RIDGE WL SERVE TO MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DELAY HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH OUR VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AND SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH
OF OUR CWA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS
A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY. LASTLY, IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG
PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/EC/22/ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KJAN 010155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE ARE JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON
MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LIKELY LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY FOG...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER LATER ON
TONIGHT AND MENTION PATCHY FOG. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PATCHY CIGS
~3000 FT...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
RANGE SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE FOG ISSUES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. EXPECT
FOG/STRATUS TO MIX OUT ~15-16Z TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED AFTN SHRA/TSRA
CONFINED SOUTH OF TVR-JAN AND W OF JAN-HBG. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE
ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES THAT MODELS PROG WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THIS RIDGE WL SERVE TO MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DELAY HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH OUR VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AND SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH
OF OUR CWA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS
A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY. LASTLY, IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG
PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/EC/22/ALLEN






000
FXUS64 KJAN 010155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE ARE JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON
MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LIKELY LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY FOG...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER LATER ON
TONIGHT AND MENTION PATCHY FOG. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PATCHY CIGS
~3000 FT...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
RANGE SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE FOG ISSUES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. EXPECT
FOG/STRATUS TO MIX OUT ~15-16Z TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED AFTN SHRA/TSRA
CONFINED SOUTH OF TVR-JAN AND W OF JAN-HBG. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE
ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES THAT MODELS PROG WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THIS RIDGE WL SERVE TO MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DELAY HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH OUR VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AND SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH
OF OUR CWA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS
A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY. LASTLY, IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG
PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/EC/22/ALLEN






000
FXUS64 KJAN 010155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE ARE JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON
MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LIKELY LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY FOG...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER LATER ON
TONIGHT AND MENTION PATCHY FOG. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PATCHY CIGS
~3000 FT...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
RANGE SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE FOG ISSUES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. EXPECT
FOG/STRATUS TO MIX OUT ~15-16Z TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED AFTN SHRA/TSRA
CONFINED SOUTH OF TVR-JAN AND W OF JAN-HBG. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE
ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES THAT MODELS PROG WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THIS RIDGE WL SERVE TO MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DELAY HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH OUR VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AND SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH
OF OUR CWA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS
A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY. LASTLY, IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG
PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/EC/22/ALLEN






000
FXUS64 KJAN 010155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS GREATLY DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE ARE JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON
MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER LEVELS LIKELY LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY FOG...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER LATER ON
TONIGHT AND MENTION PATCHY FOG. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PATCHY CIGS
~3000 FT...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
RANGE SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE FOG ISSUES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. EXPECT
FOG/STRATUS TO MIX OUT ~15-16Z TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED AFTN SHRA/TSRA
CONFINED SOUTH OF TVR-JAN AND W OF JAN-HBG. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE
ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES THAT MODELS PROG WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
THIS RIDGE WL SERVE TO MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DELAY HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH OUR VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AND SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH
OF OUR CWA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS
A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY. LASTLY, IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG
PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/EC/22/ALLEN






000
FXUS64 KJAN 312111
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A COL JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS HAS MAINTAINED
A BAND OF THICK CLOUD COVER ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT SHOWED PWS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WITH THE BAND. THIS
BAND HAS LIMITED HEATING AND INSTABILITY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS BENEATH IT A MID AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR HAS MIXED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OVER OUR NORTHWEST MOST ZONES ALLOWING FOR GREATER
HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND EAST MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES THAT MODELS PROG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE WL SERVE TO
MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT BUT THIS IS AN
INDICATION THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DELAY HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH OUR VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING SURFACE AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE
FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY. LASTLY, IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG
PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE STILL IS A
PATCH OR TWO OF CEILINGS BETWEEN AND 2 AND 3 KFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MS CURRENTLY. TRANSITION TO ALL VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO AROUND THE REGION UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
QUIET VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY MID EVENING BUT LOW CLOUDS IN
THE MVFR (TO LOCALLY IFR) RANGE SHOULD POP UP LATE TONIGHT IN
SOUTHERN ZONES. FOG ISSUES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AROUND HBG/PIB. TOMORROW SHOULD FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF I-20...AND ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  93  74  93 /   4   9  12  35
MERIDIAN      70  94  72  93 /   5   5   9  23
VICKSBURG     70  94  73  93 /   4  20  13  43
HATTIESBURG   72  95  75  95 /   5  21  16  34
NATCHEZ       72  92  74  93 /   4  29  17  49
GREENVILLE    71  94  74  93 /   4   4   9  38
GREENWOOD     71  94  74  94 /   4   3   8  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/ALLEN/BB









000
FXUS64 KJAN 312111
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A COL JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS HAS MAINTAINED
A BAND OF THICK CLOUD COVER ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT SHOWED PWS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WITH THE BAND. THIS
BAND HAS LIMITED HEATING AND INSTABILITY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS BENEATH IT A MID AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR HAS MIXED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OVER OUR NORTHWEST MOST ZONES ALLOWING FOR GREATER
HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND EAST MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES THAT MODELS PROG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE WL SERVE TO
MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT BUT THIS IS AN
INDICATION THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DELAY HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH OUR VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING SURFACE AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE
FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY. LASTLY, IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG
PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE STILL IS A
PATCH OR TWO OF CEILINGS BETWEEN AND 2 AND 3 KFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MS CURRENTLY. TRANSITION TO ALL VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO AROUND THE REGION UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
QUIET VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY MID EVENING BUT LOW CLOUDS IN
THE MVFR (TO LOCALLY IFR) RANGE SHOULD POP UP LATE TONIGHT IN
SOUTHERN ZONES. FOG ISSUES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AROUND HBG/PIB. TOMORROW SHOULD FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF I-20...AND ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  93  74  93 /   4   9  12  35
MERIDIAN      70  94  72  93 /   5   5   9  23
VICKSBURG     70  94  73  93 /   4  20  13  43
HATTIESBURG   72  95  75  95 /   5  21  16  34
NATCHEZ       72  92  74  93 /   4  29  17  49
GREENVILLE    71  94  74  93 /   4   4   9  38
GREENWOOD     71  94  74  94 /   4   3   8  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/ALLEN/BB









000
FXUS64 KJAN 312111
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A COL JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS HAS MAINTAINED
A BAND OF THICK CLOUD COVER ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT SHOWED PWS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WITH THE BAND. THIS
BAND HAS LIMITED HEATING AND INSTABILITY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS BENEATH IT A MID AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR HAS MIXED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OVER OUR NORTHWEST MOST ZONES ALLOWING FOR GREATER
HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND EAST MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES THAT MODELS PROG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE WL SERVE TO
MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT BUT THIS IS AN
INDICATION THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DELAY HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH OUR VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING SURFACE AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE
FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY. LASTLY, IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG
PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE STILL IS A
PATCH OR TWO OF CEILINGS BETWEEN AND 2 AND 3 KFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MS CURRENTLY. TRANSITION TO ALL VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO AROUND THE REGION UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
QUIET VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY MID EVENING BUT LOW CLOUDS IN
THE MVFR (TO LOCALLY IFR) RANGE SHOULD POP UP LATE TONIGHT IN
SOUTHERN ZONES. FOG ISSUES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AROUND HBG/PIB. TOMORROW SHOULD FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF I-20...AND ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  93  74  93 /   4   9  12  35
MERIDIAN      70  94  72  93 /   5   5   9  23
VICKSBURG     70  94  73  93 /   4  20  13  43
HATTIESBURG   72  95  75  95 /   5  21  16  34
NATCHEZ       72  92  74  93 /   4  29  17  49
GREENVILLE    71  94  74  93 /   4   4   9  38
GREENWOOD     71  94  74  94 /   4   3   8  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/ALLEN/BB









000
FXUS64 KJAN 312111
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A COL JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS HAS MAINTAINED
A BAND OF THICK CLOUD COVER ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT SHOWED PWS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WITH THE BAND. THIS
BAND HAS LIMITED HEATING AND INSTABILITY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS BENEATH IT A MID AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR HAS MIXED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OVER OUR NORTHWEST MOST ZONES ALLOWING FOR GREATER
HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND EAST MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES THAT MODELS PROG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE WL SERVE TO
MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT BUT THIS IS AN
INDICATION THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DELAY HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH OUR VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. RIDGING SURFACE AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. THE
FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY. LASTLY, IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG
PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE STILL IS A
PATCH OR TWO OF CEILINGS BETWEEN AND 2 AND 3 KFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MS CURRENTLY. TRANSITION TO ALL VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO AROUND THE REGION UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
QUIET VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY MID EVENING BUT LOW CLOUDS IN
THE MVFR (TO LOCALLY IFR) RANGE SHOULD POP UP LATE TONIGHT IN
SOUTHERN ZONES. FOG ISSUES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AROUND HBG/PIB. TOMORROW SHOULD FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF I-20...AND ONLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  93  74  93 /   4   9  12  35
MERIDIAN      70  94  72  93 /   5   5   9  23
VICKSBURG     70  94  73  93 /   4  20  13  43
HATTIESBURG   72  95  75  95 /   5  21  16  34
NATCHEZ       72  92  74  93 /   4  29  17  49
GREENVILLE    71  94  74  93 /   4   4   9  38
GREENWOOD     71  94  74  94 /   4   3   8  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/ALLEN/BB









000
FXUS64 KJAN 311615
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO
MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A COL JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 12Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PW OF 2.24INS AND THE 12Z SUN LIX SOUNDING HAD A PW
OF 1.61INS. THIS MID LEVEL DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST TONIGHT BUT PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. THE MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO LIFT THAN EXPECTED AND HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE CURVES IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES THERE.
LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE ACHIEVABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ON LOCAL RADARS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE SOUTHEAST. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS
(MEI/HBG/PIB)...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR BUT CLOUD DECKS ABOVE
5 KFT ARE DROPPING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A PATCH OR TWO OF MVFR
FLIGHT CATS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
THE MIDDAY HOUR. ANTICIPATE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL FOR CONDITIONS TO
BE MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY (MAINLY
AT GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR). FOR LATE TONIGHT ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP DUE TO COMBINATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...COVERAGE OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS HAS INCREASED ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THIS AXIS
REMAINS STRONG. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE BEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MS WHERE A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE DRYING AND SOME THERMAL
CAPPING TO LIMIT MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE A GOOD DEAL (AT
LEAST IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY). /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS OUR
DISTURBANCE (WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAINS/STORMS) CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE AND MORE RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE. WHILE
AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS (PWS 1.5 TO 1.75 IN) BECOMES SITUATED OVER
PART OF THE CWA...THE NW/N AREAS WILL STILL BE LOCATED IN THE MOIST
AXIS (PWS NEAR 2.0 IN) AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISO
ACTIVITY TODAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOME LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NE/N WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL OF THE DAY PERIOD. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND MORE LIKE NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUG (89-93). THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER
THE SE PORTIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY OTHER THAN SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIP CHANCES AS MORE OF THE INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE
OCCURS. STILL...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
DIRTY RIDGE AS DECENT MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON WILL BE ACROSS THE S/SW AREAS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS WILL BE WARMER AND HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
93-95. THIS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-104. /CME/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY BUT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN NEAR HWY 82 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY INFLUENCE OCCURS. LASTLY, IT
MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT
OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  72  94  74 /  20   8  16  12
MERIDIAN      92  71  95  73 /  18  11  11   9
VICKSBURG     89  72  94  73 /  27   8  17  13
HATTIESBURG   92  74  95  75 /  18  12  17  16
NATCHEZ       89  74  93  75 /  22   6  27  17
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  26   7   7   9
GREENWOOD     89  72  95  74 /  27   8   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/CME/ALLEN








000
FXUS64 KJAN 311615
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO
MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A COL JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 12Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PW OF 2.24INS AND THE 12Z SUN LIX SOUNDING HAD A PW
OF 1.61INS. THIS MID LEVEL DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST TONIGHT BUT PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. THE MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO LIFT THAN EXPECTED AND HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE CURVES IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES THERE.
LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE ACHIEVABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ON LOCAL RADARS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE SOUTHEAST. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS
(MEI/HBG/PIB)...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR BUT CLOUD DECKS ABOVE
5 KFT ARE DROPPING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A PATCH OR TWO OF MVFR
FLIGHT CATS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
THE MIDDAY HOUR. ANTICIPATE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL FOR CONDITIONS TO
BE MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY (MAINLY
AT GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR). FOR LATE TONIGHT ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP DUE TO COMBINATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...COVERAGE OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS HAS INCREASED ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THIS AXIS
REMAINS STRONG. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE BEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MS WHERE A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE DRYING AND SOME THERMAL
CAPPING TO LIMIT MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE A GOOD DEAL (AT
LEAST IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY). /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS OUR
DISTURBANCE (WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAINS/STORMS) CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE AND MORE RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE. WHILE
AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS (PWS 1.5 TO 1.75 IN) BECOMES SITUATED OVER
PART OF THE CWA...THE NW/N AREAS WILL STILL BE LOCATED IN THE MOIST
AXIS (PWS NEAR 2.0 IN) AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISO
ACTIVITY TODAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOME LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NE/N WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL OF THE DAY PERIOD. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND MORE LIKE NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUG (89-93). THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER
THE SE PORTIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY OTHER THAN SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIP CHANCES AS MORE OF THE INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE
OCCURS. STILL...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
DIRTY RIDGE AS DECENT MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON WILL BE ACROSS THE S/SW AREAS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS WILL BE WARMER AND HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
93-95. THIS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-104. /CME/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY BUT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN NEAR HWY 82 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY INFLUENCE OCCURS. LASTLY, IT
MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT
OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  72  94  74 /  20   8  16  12
MERIDIAN      92  71  95  73 /  18  11  11   9
VICKSBURG     89  72  94  73 /  27   8  17  13
HATTIESBURG   92  74  95  75 /  18  12  17  16
NATCHEZ       89  74  93  75 /  22   6  27  17
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  26   7   7   9
GREENWOOD     89  72  95  74 /  27   8   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/CME/ALLEN








000
FXUS64 KJAN 311615
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO
MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A COL JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 12Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PW OF 2.24INS AND THE 12Z SUN LIX SOUNDING HAD A PW
OF 1.61INS. THIS MID LEVEL DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST TONIGHT BUT PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. THE MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO LIFT THAN EXPECTED AND HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE CURVES IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES THERE.
LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE ACHIEVABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ON LOCAL RADARS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE SOUTHEAST. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS
(MEI/HBG/PIB)...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR BUT CLOUD DECKS ABOVE
5 KFT ARE DROPPING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A PATCH OR TWO OF MVFR
FLIGHT CATS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
THE MIDDAY HOUR. ANTICIPATE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL FOR CONDITIONS TO
BE MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY (MAINLY
AT GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR). FOR LATE TONIGHT ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP DUE TO COMBINATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...COVERAGE OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS HAS INCREASED ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THIS AXIS
REMAINS STRONG. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE BEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MS WHERE A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE DRYING AND SOME THERMAL
CAPPING TO LIMIT MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE A GOOD DEAL (AT
LEAST IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY). /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS OUR
DISTURBANCE (WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAINS/STORMS) CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE AND MORE RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE. WHILE
AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS (PWS 1.5 TO 1.75 IN) BECOMES SITUATED OVER
PART OF THE CWA...THE NW/N AREAS WILL STILL BE LOCATED IN THE MOIST
AXIS (PWS NEAR 2.0 IN) AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISO
ACTIVITY TODAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOME LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NE/N WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL OF THE DAY PERIOD. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND MORE LIKE NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUG (89-93). THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER
THE SE PORTIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY OTHER THAN SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIP CHANCES AS MORE OF THE INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE
OCCURS. STILL...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
DIRTY RIDGE AS DECENT MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON WILL BE ACROSS THE S/SW AREAS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS WILL BE WARMER AND HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
93-95. THIS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-104. /CME/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY BUT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN NEAR HWY 82 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY INFLUENCE OCCURS. LASTLY, IT
MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT
OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  72  94  74 /  20   8  16  12
MERIDIAN      92  71  95  73 /  18  11  11   9
VICKSBURG     89  72  94  73 /  27   8  17  13
HATTIESBURG   92  74  95  75 /  18  12  17  16
NATCHEZ       89  74  93  75 /  22   6  27  17
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  26   7   7   9
GREENWOOD     89  72  95  74 /  27   8   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/CME/ALLEN








000
FXUS64 KJAN 311615
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE ORIENTED EAST WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO
MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A COL JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 12Z SUN JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PW OF 2.24INS AND THE 12Z SUN LIX SOUNDING HAD A PW
OF 1.61INS. THIS MID LEVEL DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST TONIGHT BUT PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. THE MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO LIFT THAN EXPECTED AND HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE CURVES IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES THERE.
LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE ACHIEVABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ON LOCAL RADARS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE SOUTHEAST. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS
(MEI/HBG/PIB)...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY VFR BUT CLOUD DECKS ABOVE
5 KFT ARE DROPPING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A PATCH OR TWO OF MVFR
FLIGHT CATS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
THE MIDDAY HOUR. ANTICIPATE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL FOR CONDITIONS TO
BE MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY (MAINLY
AT GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR). FOR LATE TONIGHT ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP DUE TO COMBINATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...COVERAGE OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS HAS INCREASED ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THIS AXIS
REMAINS STRONG. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE BEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MS WHERE A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE DRYING AND SOME THERMAL
CAPPING TO LIMIT MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE A GOOD DEAL (AT
LEAST IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY). /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS OUR
DISTURBANCE (WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAINS/STORMS) CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE AND MORE RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE. WHILE
AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS (PWS 1.5 TO 1.75 IN) BECOMES SITUATED OVER
PART OF THE CWA...THE NW/N AREAS WILL STILL BE LOCATED IN THE MOIST
AXIS (PWS NEAR 2.0 IN) AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISO
ACTIVITY TODAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOME LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NE/N WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL OF THE DAY PERIOD. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND MORE LIKE NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUG (89-93). THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER
THE SE PORTIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY OTHER THAN SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIP CHANCES AS MORE OF THE INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE
OCCURS. STILL...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
DIRTY RIDGE AS DECENT MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON WILL BE ACROSS THE S/SW AREAS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS WILL BE WARMER AND HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
93-95. THIS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-104. /CME/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE
FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE
WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY BUT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN NEAR HWY 82 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY INFLUENCE OCCURS. LASTLY, IT
MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT
OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  72  94  74 /  20   8  16  12
MERIDIAN      92  71  95  73 /  18  11  11   9
VICKSBURG     89  72  94  73 /  27   8  17  13
HATTIESBURG   92  74  95  75 /  18  12  17  16
NATCHEZ       89  74  93  75 /  22   6  27  17
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  26   7   7   9
GREENWOOD     89  72  95  74 /  27   8   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/CME/ALLEN








000
FXUS64 KJAN 311250 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
750 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...COVERAGE OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS HAS INCREASED ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THIS AXIS
REMAINS STRONG. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE BEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MS WHERE A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE DRYING AND SOME THERMAL
CAPPING TO LIMIT MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE A GOOD DEAL (AT
LEAST IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY). /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS OUR
DISTURBANCE (WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAINS/STORMS) CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE AND MORE RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE. WHILE
AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS (PWS 1.5 TO 1.75 IN) BECOMES SITUATED OVER
PART OF THE CWA...THE NW/N AREAS WILL STILL BE LOCATED IN THE MOIST
AXIS (PWS NEAR 2.0 IN) AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISO
ACTIVITY TODAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOME LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NE/N WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL OF THE DAY PERIOD. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND MORE LIKE NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUG (89-93). THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER
THE SE PORTIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY OTHER THAN SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIP CHANCES AS MORE OF THE INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE
OCCURS. STILL...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
DIRTY RIDGE AS DECENT MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON WILL BE ACROSS THE S/SW AREAS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS WILL BE WARMER AND HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
93-95. THIS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-104. /CME/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL
RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY BUT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN NEAR HWY 82 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY INFLUENCE OCCURS. LASTLY, IT
MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT
OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...
FOCUS THROUGH 15-17Z WILL BE ON CEILINGS. LOOK FOR A
TREND TO MVFR AND IFR BY 09-10Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TAKING
SHAPE CLOSER TO MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISO CONVECTION TODAY AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME VCSH WORDING. MOST OF THE EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO AGAIN BE A CONCERN AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  72  94  74 /  20   8  16  12
MERIDIAN      93  71  95  73 /  18  11  11   9
VICKSBURG     90  72  94  73 /  23   8  17  13
HATTIESBURG   94  74  95  75 /  18  12  17  16
NATCHEZ       90  74  93  75 /  22   6  27  17
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  25   7   7   9
GREENWOOD     89  72  95  74 /  25   8   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/CME/ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KJAN 311250 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
750 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...COVERAGE OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS HAS INCREASED ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THIS AXIS
REMAINS STRONG. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE BEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MS WHERE A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE DRYING AND SOME THERMAL
CAPPING TO LIMIT MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE A GOOD DEAL (AT
LEAST IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY). /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS OUR
DISTURBANCE (WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAINS/STORMS) CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE AND MORE RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE. WHILE
AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS (PWS 1.5 TO 1.75 IN) BECOMES SITUATED OVER
PART OF THE CWA...THE NW/N AREAS WILL STILL BE LOCATED IN THE MOIST
AXIS (PWS NEAR 2.0 IN) AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISO
ACTIVITY TODAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOME LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NE/N WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL OF THE DAY PERIOD. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND MORE LIKE NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUG (89-93). THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER
THE SE PORTIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY OTHER THAN SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIP CHANCES AS MORE OF THE INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE
OCCURS. STILL...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
DIRTY RIDGE AS DECENT MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON WILL BE ACROSS THE S/SW AREAS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS WILL BE WARMER AND HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
93-95. THIS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-104. /CME/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL
RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY BUT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN NEAR HWY 82 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY INFLUENCE OCCURS. LASTLY, IT
MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT
OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...
FOCUS THROUGH 15-17Z WILL BE ON CEILINGS. LOOK FOR A
TREND TO MVFR AND IFR BY 09-10Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TAKING
SHAPE CLOSER TO MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISO CONVECTION TODAY AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME VCSH WORDING. MOST OF THE EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO AGAIN BE A CONCERN AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  72  94  74 /  20   8  16  12
MERIDIAN      93  71  95  73 /  18  11  11   9
VICKSBURG     90  72  94  73 /  23   8  17  13
HATTIESBURG   94  74  95  75 /  18  12  17  16
NATCHEZ       90  74  93  75 /  22   6  27  17
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  25   7   7   9
GREENWOOD     89  72  95  74 /  25   8   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/CME/ALLEN






000
FXUS64 KJAN 310841
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS OUR
DISTURBANCE (WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAINS/STORMS) CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE AND MORE RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE. WHILE
AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS (PWS 1.5 TO 1.75 IN) BECOMES SITUATED OVER
PART OF THE CWA...THE NW/N AREAS WILL STILL BE LOCATED IN THE MOIST
AXIS (PWS NEAR 2.0 IN) AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISO
ACTIVITY TODAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOME LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NE/N WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL OF THE DAY PERIOD. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND MORE LIKE NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUG (89-93). THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER
THE SE PORTIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY OTHER THAN SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIP CHANCES AS MORE OF THE INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE
OCCURS. STILL...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
DIRTY RIDGE AS DECENT MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON WILL BE ACROSS THE S/SW AREAS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS WILL BE WARMER AND HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
93-95. THIS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-104. /CME/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL
RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY BUT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN NEAR HWY 82 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY INFLUENCE OCCURS. LASTLY, IT
MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT
OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...FOCUS THROUGH 15-17Z WILL BE ON CEILINGS. LOOK FOR A
TREND TO MVFR AND IFR BY 09-10Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TAKING
SHAPE CLOSER TO MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISO CONVECTION TODAY AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME VCSH WORDING. MOST OF THE EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO AGAIN BE A CONCERN AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  72  94  74 /  20   8  16  12
MERIDIAN      93  71  95  73 /  18  11  11   9
VICKSBURG     90  72  94  73 /  23   8  17  13
HATTIESBURG   94  74  95  75 /  18  12  17  16
NATCHEZ       90  74  93  75 /  22   6  27  17
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  25   7   7   9
GREENWOOD     89  72  95  74 /  25   8   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/ALLEN/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 310841
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS OUR
DISTURBANCE (WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAINS/STORMS) CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE AND MORE RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE. WHILE
AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS (PWS 1.5 TO 1.75 IN) BECOMES SITUATED OVER
PART OF THE CWA...THE NW/N AREAS WILL STILL BE LOCATED IN THE MOIST
AXIS (PWS NEAR 2.0 IN) AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISO
ACTIVITY TODAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOME LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NE/N WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL OF THE DAY PERIOD. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND MORE LIKE NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUG (89-93). THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER
THE SE PORTIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY OTHER THAN SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIP CHANCES AS MORE OF THE INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE
OCCURS. STILL...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
DIRTY RIDGE AS DECENT MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON WILL BE ACROSS THE S/SW AREAS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS WILL BE WARMER AND HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
93-95. THIS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-104. /CME/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL
RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY BUT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN NEAR HWY 82 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY INFLUENCE OCCURS. LASTLY, IT
MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT
OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...FOCUS THROUGH 15-17Z WILL BE ON CEILINGS. LOOK FOR A
TREND TO MVFR AND IFR BY 09-10Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TAKING
SHAPE CLOSER TO MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISO CONVECTION TODAY AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME VCSH WORDING. MOST OF THE EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO AGAIN BE A CONCERN AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  72  94  74 /  20   8  16  12
MERIDIAN      93  71  95  73 /  18  11  11   9
VICKSBURG     90  72  94  73 /  23   8  17  13
HATTIESBURG   94  74  95  75 /  18  12  17  16
NATCHEZ       90  74  93  75 /  22   6  27  17
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  25   7   7   9
GREENWOOD     89  72  95  74 /  25   8   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/ALLEN/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 310402 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1102 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER POPS QUITE A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND REMOVE MOST MENTIONS OF THUNDER. DUE TO THE CURRENT
TRENDS...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY AT BEST UNTIL 2 AM OR SO.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NW/N-CENTRAL AREAS AFTER 2 AM. DUE TO THIS...WILL BOOST POPS BACK
TO 40-50% ACROSS THOSE AREAS. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...THE CWA REMAINS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SE
ARKANSAS AND THE MS DELTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR
COMPOSITES SHOW A MESOLOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LARGE
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO SW MISSISSIPPI ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR.
00Z KJAN RAOB WHICH WENT UP AFTER THE BRUNT OF THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL SAMPLED A 2.2 INCH PWAT. LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW THIS N-S AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...MAKING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
DEPICTS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT. NO NEW
ADJUSTMENTS ARE PLANNED FOR POPS/WX AT THIS TIME...BUT HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...MAINLY DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG DETRIMENTAL TO OPERATIONS WILL BE
AT PIB/HBG TOWARDS DAWN. ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS AROUND THE REGION
THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND MAYBE EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED TOMORROW WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH RANGING UP TO 15
KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING. /BB/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE ARKLAMISS
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH PW/S NEAR 2 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HEAT. LOWER 90S PREVALENT SUNDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID 90S MONDAY./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND TYPICAL 20-30%
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHT
INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
/NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/,
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE
WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  92  73  94 /  20  18   7  20
MERIDIAN      71  93  71  95 /  18  18   7  17
VICKSBURG     74  90  71  93 /  20  18   7  19
HATTIESBURG   74  95  74  95 /  23  18  13  19
NATCHEZ       72  90  73  91 /  20  18  12  27
GREENVILLE    73  90  72  94 /  47  18   6  10
GREENWOOD     73  91  72  95 /  37  21   6  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME






000
FXUS64 KJAN 310402 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1102 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER POPS QUITE A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND REMOVE MOST MENTIONS OF THUNDER. DUE TO THE CURRENT
TRENDS...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY AT BEST UNTIL 2 AM OR SO.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NW/N-CENTRAL AREAS AFTER 2 AM. DUE TO THIS...WILL BOOST POPS BACK
TO 40-50% ACROSS THOSE AREAS. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...THE CWA REMAINS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SE
ARKANSAS AND THE MS DELTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR
COMPOSITES SHOW A MESOLOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LARGE
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO SW MISSISSIPPI ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR.
00Z KJAN RAOB WHICH WENT UP AFTER THE BRUNT OF THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL SAMPLED A 2.2 INCH PWAT. LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW THIS N-S AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...MAKING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
DEPICTS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT. NO NEW
ADJUSTMENTS ARE PLANNED FOR POPS/WX AT THIS TIME...BUT HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...MAINLY DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG DETRIMENTAL TO OPERATIONS WILL BE
AT PIB/HBG TOWARDS DAWN. ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS AROUND THE REGION
THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND MAYBE EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED TOMORROW WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH RANGING UP TO 15
KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING. /BB/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE ARKLAMISS
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH PW/S NEAR 2 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HEAT. LOWER 90S PREVALENT SUNDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID 90S MONDAY./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND TYPICAL 20-30%
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHT
INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
/NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/,
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE
WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  92  73  94 /  20  18   7  20
MERIDIAN      71  93  71  95 /  18  18   7  17
VICKSBURG     74  90  71  93 /  20  18   7  19
HATTIESBURG   74  95  74  95 /  23  18  13  19
NATCHEZ       72  90  73  91 /  20  18  12  27
GREENVILLE    73  90  72  94 /  47  18   6  10
GREENWOOD     73  91  72  95 /  37  21   6  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 310211 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
911 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...THE CWA REMAINS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SE
ARKANSAS AND THE MS DELTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR
COMPOSITES SHOW A MESOLOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LARGE
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO SW MISSISSIPPI ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR.
00Z KJAN RAOB WHICH WENT UP AFTER THE BRUNT OF THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL SAMPLED A 2.2 INCH PWAT. LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW THIS N-S AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...MAKING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
DEPICTS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT. NO NEW
ADJUSTMENTS ARE PLANNED FOR POPS/WX AT THIS TIME...BUT HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...MAINLY DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG DETRIMENTAL TO OPERATIONS WILL BE
AT PIB/HBG TOWARDS DAWN. ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS AROUND THE REGION
THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND MAYBE EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED TOMORROW WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH RANGING UP TO 15
KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE ARKLAMISS
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH PW/S NEAR 2 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HEAT. LOWER 90S PREVALENT SUNDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID 90S MONDAY./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND TYPICAL 20-30%
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHT
INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
/NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/,
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE
WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES. /ALLEN/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/BB/26/ALLEN






000
FXUS64 KJAN 310211 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
911 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...THE CWA REMAINS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SE
ARKANSAS AND THE MS DELTA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR
COMPOSITES SHOW A MESOLOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LARGE
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LA COAST...WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO SW MISSISSIPPI ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR.
00Z KJAN RAOB WHICH WENT UP AFTER THE BRUNT OF THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL SAMPLED A 2.2 INCH PWAT. LARGER SCALE
MODELS SHOW THIS N-S AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...MAKING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR WHICH
DEPICTS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT. NO NEW
ADJUSTMENTS ARE PLANNED FOR POPS/WX AT THIS TIME...BUT HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...MAINLY DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG DETRIMENTAL TO OPERATIONS WILL BE
AT PIB/HBG TOWARDS DAWN. ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS AROUND THE REGION
THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND MAYBE EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED TOMORROW WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH RANGING UP TO 15
KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE ARKLAMISS
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH PW/S NEAR 2 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HEAT. LOWER 90S PREVALENT SUNDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID 90S MONDAY./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND TYPICAL 20-30%
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHT
INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
/NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/,
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE
WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES. /ALLEN/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/BB/26/ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KJAN 302259 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
559 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP ZFP WORDING AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY
IN A BREAK...INDICATIONS ARE THERE WILL BE NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE EVENING. MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...CLOSER TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR.
POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES ARE BEING SENT AT THIS TIME.
/DL/

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE BLOB
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO RAPIDLY PULL AWAY TO
THE NE DURING THE EVENING. AT PRESENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS A FEW
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT HAVE PROVIDED SOME INTERESTING WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 15KFT ALONG WITH
PW/S NEAR 2.5 INCHES SUGGESTS THAT WARM RAIN PROCESSES HAVE BEEN
DOMINANT FOR MUCH OF LA/W MS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS STRONG
RELEASE IN LATENT HEATING HAS RESULTED IN TROFFINESS AT THE SURFACE
AND 35-45 KNOTS OF H7 FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THESE WIND SPEEDS
TRANSLATING TO THE GROUND IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. WHERE
THE SUN WAS ABLE TO GET ON THE GROUND...IN THE EAST...BETTER
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND LIGHTNING.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR A PORTION OF
TONIGHT...DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE A LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING OR
SEVERE AS THAT THREAT WILL QUICKLY WANE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER CONUS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE ARKLAMISS AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH PW/S NEAR 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HEAT. LOWER 90S
PREVALENT SUNDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MID 90S MONDAY./26/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND TYPICAL 20-30%
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHT
INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
/NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/,
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE
WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WAS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD
BE ENDING FOR GLH SHORTLY. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST THE OTHER SITES TO
END RAIN A LITTLE SOONER. WILL ALSO KEEP FOG BEFORE MIDNIGHT
EVERYWHERE. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10 KTS...BUT MUCH
OF THE AREA WAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WILL GO WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS
FOR THE EVENING./7/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/26/7/ALLEN






000
FXUS64 KJAN 302012
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE BLOB
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO RAPIDLY PULL AWAY TO
THE NE DURING THE EVENING. AT PRESENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS A FEW
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT HAVE PROVIDED SOME INTERESTING WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 15KFT ALONG WITH
PW/S NEAR 2.5 INCHES SUGGESTS THAT WARM RAIN PROCESSES HAVE BEEN
DOMINANT FOR MUCH OF LA/W MS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS STRONG
RELEASE IN LATENT HEATING HAS RESULTED IN TROFFINESS AT THE SURFACE
AND 35-45 KNOTS OF H7 FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THESE WIND SPEEDS
TRANSLATING TO THE GROUND IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. WHERE
THE SUN WAS ABLE TO GET ON THE GROUND...IN THE EAST...BETTER
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND LIGHTNING.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR A PORTION OF
TONIGHT...DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE A LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING OR
SEVERE AS THAT THREAT WILL QUICKLY WANE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER CONUS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE ARKLAMISS AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH PW/S NEAR 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HEAT. LOWER 90S
PREVALENT SUNDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MID 90S MONDAY./26/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND TYPICAL 20-30%
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHT
INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
/NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/,
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE
WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT WILL
ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL IT STAY
NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER AREA AND
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY, THE
RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE
FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE POSSIBILITIES. /ALLEN/


&&

.AVIATION...RAIN COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WAS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD
BE ENDING FOR GLH SHORTLY. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST THE OTHER SITES TO
END RAIN A LITTLE SOONER. WILL ALSO KEEP FOG BEFORE MIDNIGHT
EVERYWHERE. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10 KTS...BUT MUCH
OF THE AREA WAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WILL GO WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS
FOR THE EVENING./7/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  92  73  94 /  48  18   7  20
MERIDIAN      72  93  71  95 /  35  18   7  17
VICKSBURG     74  90  71  93 /  53  18   7  19
HATTIESBURG   74  95  74  95 /  26  18  13  19
NATCHEZ       72  90  73  91 /  35  18  12  27
GREENVILLE    73  90  72  94 /  75  18   6  10
GREENWOOD     74  91  72  95 /  78  21   6  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 302012
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE CONVECTIVE BLOB
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO RAPIDLY PULL AWAY TO
THE NE DURING THE EVENING. AT PRESENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS A FEW
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT HAVE PROVIDED SOME INTERESTING WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 15KFT ALONG WITH
PW/S NEAR 2.5 INCHES SUGGESTS THAT WARM RAIN PROCESSES HAVE BEEN
DOMINANT FOR MUCH OF LA/W MS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS STRONG
RELEASE IN LATENT HEATING HAS RESULTED IN TROFFINESS AT THE SURFACE
AND 35-45 KNOTS OF H7 FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THESE WIND SPEEDS
TRANSLATING TO THE GROUND IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. WHERE
THE SUN WAS ABLE TO GET ON THE GROUND...IN THE EAST...BETTER
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND LIGHTNING.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR A PORTION OF
TONIGHT...DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE A LIMITED THREAT OF FLOODING OR
SEVERE AS THAT THREAT WILL QUICKLY WANE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER CONUS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE ARKLAMISS AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH PW/S NEAR 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HEAT. LOWER 90S
PREVALENT SUNDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MID 90S MONDAY./26/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND TYPICAL 20-30%
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHT
INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
/NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/,
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE
WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW 100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT WILL
ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL IT STAY
NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER AREA AND
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY, THE
RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE
FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE POSSIBILITIES. /ALLEN/


&&

.AVIATION...RAIN COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WAS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD
BE ENDING FOR GLH SHORTLY. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST THE OTHER SITES TO
END RAIN A LITTLE SOONER. WILL ALSO KEEP FOG BEFORE MIDNIGHT
EVERYWHERE. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS CONTINUING AROUND 10 KTS...BUT MUCH
OF THE AREA WAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WILL GO WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS
FOR THE EVENING./7/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  92  73  94 /  48  18   7  20
MERIDIAN      72  93  71  95 /  35  18   7  17
VICKSBURG     74  90  71  93 /  53  18   7  19
HATTIESBURG   74  95  74  95 /  26  18  13  19
NATCHEZ       72  90  73  91 /  35  18  12  27
GREENVILLE    73  90  72  94 /  75  18   6  10
GREENWOOD     74  91  72  95 /  78  21   6  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 301504 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1004 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN MOVING UP THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...MADE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD WARM TROPICAL RAINS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS NE LA/SW MS.
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA...PW/S NEAR 2.4 INCHES AND WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 15KFT SUGGEST THAT THESE PROCESSES WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND UNDERESTIMATED RADAR
AMOUNTS.

KJAN 12 UA DATA SHOWING LAYER OF 30-40KNOT WIND FLOW BETWEEN
5 AND 20KFT. LATEST HRRR DATA IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS ASSESSMENT OF A WIND THREAT TODAY IN ITS ILLUSTRATION OF
SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE FORECAST REFLECTIVITY...AS WELL
AS...FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 KNOTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON./26/


&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL BE A MORE HIT OR MISS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING FOR HBG...GTR AND MEI. AT
THIS TIME...EXPECTING SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOUT 3000FT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...SO INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAY ADD SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR RAIN
THROUGH 3Z. GLH WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
SOME SHORT BREAKS. EXPECTING RAIN AND/OR FOG TO MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW CLOUDS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
LIFR...MAYBE IFR CONDITIONS. GWO...HKS...JAN WILL SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
JAN/HKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS TO ALL SITES FROM 9-12Z. /7/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON TAP AS HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
FUEL SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHER GULF AND S-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF LA. RECENT DAYS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK STILL EXISTS AS EFFICIENT
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF
THE 2.2-2.4 IN PW AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR GUSTY
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS AS WELL. THE REASON FOR THIS NEW
THREAT RESIDES IN THE INCREASED FLOW BETWEEN THE 2-12 KFT LAYER.
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LAYER WILL CONTAIN 30-40 KTS OF
FLOW. WHILE HEATING TODAY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL BE QUITE TAME...MID/UPPER 80S DEGREE TEMPS WILL SUPPORT
SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION (ESP WITH THE DISTURBANCE PROVIDING STRONG
FORCING). FURTHERMORE...ORGANIZING CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
UTILIZE THE INCREASED FLOW TO ORGANIZE COLD POOLS. IF ANY COLD POOL
ORGANIZES IN A FASHION WHERE IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE FLOW BELOW
12KFT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN A NNE DIRECTION) BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND LIKELY EFFICIENTLY BRING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IN
TURN...THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE INCREASED FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY TO VALUES THAT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A PRIMARY THREAT...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT. DUE TO ADDED
RISKS...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED SVR RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR
A LOCATION...MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A RISK...THE EXCEPTIONS LOOK
TO THE BE THE FAR SW AND THE I-59 CORRIDOR. BEST TIMING WOULD BE FROM
11AM TO 5PM. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING AND THREAT
AREA.

AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS (POPS AND WEATHER)...GUIDANCE POPS
WERE HIGHER FROM THE PREV RUNS AND I FOLLOWED THOSE HIGH VALUES AND
INCREASED SOME LOCATIONS TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECASTS. THE
MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WAS ADJUSTED...THE SW LOOKS TO BE THE
AREA THAT GETS IT FIRST AND EARLIEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT...MUCH MORE OF TRICKY FORECAST EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL PERIOD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MOST
OF THE EVE...THEN ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW/N
AREAS. THE S HALF LOOKS TO SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN PREV EXPECTED AS
DRIER AIR MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN S/WV.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS WELL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR
MOVING UP FROM THE S/SE AROUND THE EVOLVING RIDGE. STILL...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY. THE GFS WAS REALLY LOW
WITH POPS AND I USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO FOR THE POP FORECAST.
WITH LESS PRECIP AROUND...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS (90-95). /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
TYPICAL 20-30% AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

THE CURRENT SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF TO THE NE BY LABOR DAY AND A SUBTROPICAL H7-H5
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE NRN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL. DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHT INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED /NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/, ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL
BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL
EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW
100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES.  /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  73  93  74 /  87  37  22   7
MERIDIAN      90  72  93  72 /  71  27  19   7
VICKSBURG     85  73  92  72 /  96  40  25   7
HATTIESBURG   91  75  96  74 /  74  19  12  13
NATCHEZ       85  73  92  74 /  92  30  18  12
GREENVILLE    84  73  91  73 /  98  60  39   6
GREENWOOD     86  74  92  73 /  96  58  39   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 301504 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1004 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN MOVING UP THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...MADE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD WARM TROPICAL RAINS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS NE LA/SW MS.
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA...PW/S NEAR 2.4 INCHES AND WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 15KFT SUGGEST THAT THESE PROCESSES WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND UNDERESTIMATED RADAR
AMOUNTS.

KJAN 12 UA DATA SHOWING LAYER OF 30-40KNOT WIND FLOW BETWEEN
5 AND 20KFT. LATEST HRRR DATA IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS ASSESSMENT OF A WIND THREAT TODAY IN ITS ILLUSTRATION OF
SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE FORECAST REFLECTIVITY...AS WELL
AS...FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 KNOTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON./26/


&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL BE A MORE HIT OR MISS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING FOR HBG...GTR AND MEI. AT
THIS TIME...EXPECTING SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOUT 3000FT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...SO INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAY ADD SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR RAIN
THROUGH 3Z. GLH WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
SOME SHORT BREAKS. EXPECTING RAIN AND/OR FOG TO MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW CLOUDS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
LIFR...MAYBE IFR CONDITIONS. GWO...HKS...JAN WILL SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
JAN/HKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS TO ALL SITES FROM 9-12Z. /7/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON TAP AS HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
FUEL SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHER GULF AND S-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF LA. RECENT DAYS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK STILL EXISTS AS EFFICIENT
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF
THE 2.2-2.4 IN PW AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR GUSTY
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS AS WELL. THE REASON FOR THIS NEW
THREAT RESIDES IN THE INCREASED FLOW BETWEEN THE 2-12 KFT LAYER.
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LAYER WILL CONTAIN 30-40 KTS OF
FLOW. WHILE HEATING TODAY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL BE QUITE TAME...MID/UPPER 80S DEGREE TEMPS WILL SUPPORT
SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION (ESP WITH THE DISTURBANCE PROVIDING STRONG
FORCING). FURTHERMORE...ORGANIZING CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
UTILIZE THE INCREASED FLOW TO ORGANIZE COLD POOLS. IF ANY COLD POOL
ORGANIZES IN A FASHION WHERE IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE FLOW BELOW
12KFT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN A NNE DIRECTION) BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND LIKELY EFFICIENTLY BRING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IN
TURN...THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE INCREASED FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY TO VALUES THAT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A PRIMARY THREAT...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT. DUE TO ADDED
RISKS...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED SVR RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR
A LOCATION...MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A RISK...THE EXCEPTIONS LOOK
TO THE BE THE FAR SW AND THE I-59 CORRIDOR. BEST TIMING WOULD BE FROM
11AM TO 5PM. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING AND THREAT
AREA.

AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS (POPS AND WEATHER)...GUIDANCE POPS
WERE HIGHER FROM THE PREV RUNS AND I FOLLOWED THOSE HIGH VALUES AND
INCREASED SOME LOCATIONS TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECASTS. THE
MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WAS ADJUSTED...THE SW LOOKS TO BE THE
AREA THAT GETS IT FIRST AND EARLIEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT...MUCH MORE OF TRICKY FORECAST EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL PERIOD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MOST
OF THE EVE...THEN ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW/N
AREAS. THE S HALF LOOKS TO SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN PREV EXPECTED AS
DRIER AIR MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN S/WV.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS WELL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR
MOVING UP FROM THE S/SE AROUND THE EVOLVING RIDGE. STILL...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY. THE GFS WAS REALLY LOW
WITH POPS AND I USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO FOR THE POP FORECAST.
WITH LESS PRECIP AROUND...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS (90-95). /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
TYPICAL 20-30% AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

THE CURRENT SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF TO THE NE BY LABOR DAY AND A SUBTROPICAL H7-H5
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE NRN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL. DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHT INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED /NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/, ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL
BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL
EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW
100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES.  /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  73  93  74 /  87  37  22   7
MERIDIAN      90  72  93  72 /  71  27  19   7
VICKSBURG     85  73  92  72 /  96  40  25   7
HATTIESBURG   91  75  96  74 /  74  19  12  13
NATCHEZ       85  73  92  74 /  92  30  18  12
GREENVILLE    84  73  91  73 /  98  60  39   6
GREENWOOD     86  74  92  73 /  96  58  39   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 301504 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1004 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN MOVING UP THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...MADE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD WARM TROPICAL RAINS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS NE LA/SW MS.
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA...PW/S NEAR 2.4 INCHES AND WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 15KFT SUGGEST THAT THESE PROCESSES WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND UNDERESTIMATED RADAR
AMOUNTS.

KJAN 12 UA DATA SHOWING LAYER OF 30-40KNOT WIND FLOW BETWEEN
5 AND 20KFT. LATEST HRRR DATA IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS ASSESSMENT OF A WIND THREAT TODAY IN ITS ILLUSTRATION OF
SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE FORECAST REFLECTIVITY...AS WELL
AS...FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 KNOTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON./26/


&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL BE A MORE HIT OR MISS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING FOR HBG...GTR AND MEI. AT
THIS TIME...EXPECTING SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOUT 3000FT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...SO INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAY ADD SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR RAIN
THROUGH 3Z. GLH WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
SOME SHORT BREAKS. EXPECTING RAIN AND/OR FOG TO MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW CLOUDS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
LIFR...MAYBE IFR CONDITIONS. GWO...HKS...JAN WILL SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
JAN/HKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS TO ALL SITES FROM 9-12Z. /7/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON TAP AS HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
FUEL SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHER GULF AND S-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF LA. RECENT DAYS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK STILL EXISTS AS EFFICIENT
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF
THE 2.2-2.4 IN PW AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR GUSTY
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS AS WELL. THE REASON FOR THIS NEW
THREAT RESIDES IN THE INCREASED FLOW BETWEEN THE 2-12 KFT LAYER.
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LAYER WILL CONTAIN 30-40 KTS OF
FLOW. WHILE HEATING TODAY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL BE QUITE TAME...MID/UPPER 80S DEGREE TEMPS WILL SUPPORT
SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION (ESP WITH THE DISTURBANCE PROVIDING STRONG
FORCING). FURTHERMORE...ORGANIZING CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
UTILIZE THE INCREASED FLOW TO ORGANIZE COLD POOLS. IF ANY COLD POOL
ORGANIZES IN A FASHION WHERE IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE FLOW BELOW
12KFT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN A NNE DIRECTION) BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND LIKELY EFFICIENTLY BRING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IN
TURN...THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE INCREASED FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY TO VALUES THAT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A PRIMARY THREAT...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT. DUE TO ADDED
RISKS...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED SVR RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR
A LOCATION...MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A RISK...THE EXCEPTIONS LOOK
TO THE BE THE FAR SW AND THE I-59 CORRIDOR. BEST TIMING WOULD BE FROM
11AM TO 5PM. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING AND THREAT
AREA.

AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS (POPS AND WEATHER)...GUIDANCE POPS
WERE HIGHER FROM THE PREV RUNS AND I FOLLOWED THOSE HIGH VALUES AND
INCREASED SOME LOCATIONS TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECASTS. THE
MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WAS ADJUSTED...THE SW LOOKS TO BE THE
AREA THAT GETS IT FIRST AND EARLIEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT...MUCH MORE OF TRICKY FORECAST EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL PERIOD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MOST
OF THE EVE...THEN ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW/N
AREAS. THE S HALF LOOKS TO SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN PREV EXPECTED AS
DRIER AIR MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN S/WV.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS WELL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR
MOVING UP FROM THE S/SE AROUND THE EVOLVING RIDGE. STILL...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY. THE GFS WAS REALLY LOW
WITH POPS AND I USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO FOR THE POP FORECAST.
WITH LESS PRECIP AROUND...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS (90-95). /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
TYPICAL 20-30% AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

THE CURRENT SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF TO THE NE BY LABOR DAY AND A SUBTROPICAL H7-H5
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE NRN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL. DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHT INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED /NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/, ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL
BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL
EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW
100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES.  /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  73  93  74 /  87  37  22   7
MERIDIAN      90  72  93  72 /  71  27  19   7
VICKSBURG     85  73  92  72 /  96  40  25   7
HATTIESBURG   91  75  96  74 /  74  19  12  13
NATCHEZ       85  73  92  74 /  92  30  18  12
GREENVILLE    84  73  91  73 /  98  60  39   6
GREENWOOD     86  74  92  73 /  96  58  39   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 301504 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1004 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN MOVING UP THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...MADE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD WARM TROPICAL RAINS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS NE LA/SW MS.
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA...PW/S NEAR 2.4 INCHES AND WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 15KFT SUGGEST THAT THESE PROCESSES WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND UNDERESTIMATED RADAR
AMOUNTS.

KJAN 12 UA DATA SHOWING LAYER OF 30-40KNOT WIND FLOW BETWEEN
5 AND 20KFT. LATEST HRRR DATA IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS ASSESSMENT OF A WIND THREAT TODAY IN ITS ILLUSTRATION OF
SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE FORECAST REFLECTIVITY...AS WELL
AS...FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 KNOTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON./26/


&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL BE A MORE HIT OR MISS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING FOR HBG...GTR AND MEI. AT
THIS TIME...EXPECTING SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOUT 3000FT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...SO INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAY ADD SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR RAIN
THROUGH 3Z. GLH WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
SOME SHORT BREAKS. EXPECTING RAIN AND/OR FOG TO MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW CLOUDS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
LIFR...MAYBE IFR CONDITIONS. GWO...HKS...JAN WILL SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
JAN/HKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS TO ALL SITES FROM 9-12Z. /7/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON TAP AS HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
FUEL SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHER GULF AND S-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF LA. RECENT DAYS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK STILL EXISTS AS EFFICIENT
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF
THE 2.2-2.4 IN PW AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR GUSTY
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS AS WELL. THE REASON FOR THIS NEW
THREAT RESIDES IN THE INCREASED FLOW BETWEEN THE 2-12 KFT LAYER.
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LAYER WILL CONTAIN 30-40 KTS OF
FLOW. WHILE HEATING TODAY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL BE QUITE TAME...MID/UPPER 80S DEGREE TEMPS WILL SUPPORT
SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION (ESP WITH THE DISTURBANCE PROVIDING STRONG
FORCING). FURTHERMORE...ORGANIZING CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
UTILIZE THE INCREASED FLOW TO ORGANIZE COLD POOLS. IF ANY COLD POOL
ORGANIZES IN A FASHION WHERE IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE FLOW BELOW
12KFT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN A NNE DIRECTION) BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND LIKELY EFFICIENTLY BRING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IN
TURN...THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE INCREASED FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY TO VALUES THAT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A PRIMARY THREAT...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT. DUE TO ADDED
RISKS...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED SVR RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR
A LOCATION...MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A RISK...THE EXCEPTIONS LOOK
TO THE BE THE FAR SW AND THE I-59 CORRIDOR. BEST TIMING WOULD BE FROM
11AM TO 5PM. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING AND THREAT
AREA.

AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS (POPS AND WEATHER)...GUIDANCE POPS
WERE HIGHER FROM THE PREV RUNS AND I FOLLOWED THOSE HIGH VALUES AND
INCREASED SOME LOCATIONS TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECASTS. THE
MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WAS ADJUSTED...THE SW LOOKS TO BE THE
AREA THAT GETS IT FIRST AND EARLIEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT...MUCH MORE OF TRICKY FORECAST EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL PERIOD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MOST
OF THE EVE...THEN ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW/N
AREAS. THE S HALF LOOKS TO SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN PREV EXPECTED AS
DRIER AIR MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN S/WV.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS WELL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR
MOVING UP FROM THE S/SE AROUND THE EVOLVING RIDGE. STILL...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY. THE GFS WAS REALLY LOW
WITH POPS AND I USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO FOR THE POP FORECAST.
WITH LESS PRECIP AROUND...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS (90-95). /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
TYPICAL 20-30% AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

THE CURRENT SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF TO THE NE BY LABOR DAY AND A SUBTROPICAL H7-H5
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE NRN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL. DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHT INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED /NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/, ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL
BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL
EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW
100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES.  /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  73  93  74 /  87  37  22   7
MERIDIAN      90  72  93  72 /  71  27  19   7
VICKSBURG     85  73  92  72 /  96  40  25   7
HATTIESBURG   91  75  96  74 /  74  19  12  13
NATCHEZ       85  73  92  74 /  92  30  18  12
GREENVILLE    84  73  91  73 /  98  60  39   6
GREENWOOD     86  74  92  73 /  96  58  39   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 300836
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON TAP AS HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
FUEL SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHER GULF AND S-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF LA. RECENT DAYS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK STILL EXISTS AS EFFICIENT
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF
THE 2.2-2.4 IN PW AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR GUSTY
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS AS WELL. THE REASON FOR THIS NEW
THREAT RESIDES IN THE INCREASED FLOW BETWEEN THE 2-12 KFT LAYER.
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LAYER WILL CONTAIN 30-40 KTS OF
FLOW. WHILE HEATING TODAY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL BE QUITE TAME...MID/UPPER 80S DEGREE TEMPS WILL SUPPORT
SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION (ESP WITH THE DISTURBANCE PROVIDING STRONG
FORCING). FURTHERMORE...ORGANIZING CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
UTILIZE THE INCREASED FLOW TO ORGANIZE COLD POOLS. IF ANY COLD POOL
ORGANIZES IN A FASHION WHERE IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE FLOW BELOW
12KFT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN A NNE DIRECTION) BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND LIKELY EFFICIENTLY BRING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IN
TURN...THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE INCREASED FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY TO VALUES THAT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A PRIMARY THREAT...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT. DUE TO ADDED
RISKS...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED SVR RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR
A LOCATION...MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A RISK...THE EXCEPTIONS LOOK
TO THE BE THE FAR SW AND THE I-59 CORRIDOR. BEST TIMING WOULD BE FROM
11AM TO 5PM. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING AND THREAT
AREA.

AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS (POPS AND WEATHER)...GUIDANCE POPS
WERE HIGHER FROM THE PREV RUNS AND I FOLLOWED THOSE HIGH VALUES AND
INCREASED SOME LOCATIONS TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECASTS. THE
MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WAS ADJUSTED...THE SW LOOKS TO BE THE
AREA THAT GETS IT FIRST AND EARLIEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT...MUCH MORE OF TRICKY FORECAST EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL PERIOD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MOST
OF THE EVE...THEN ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW/N
AREAS. THE S HALF LOOKS TO SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN PREV EXPECTED AS
DRIER AIR MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN S/WV.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS WELL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR
MOVING UP FROM THE S/SE AROUND THE EVOLVING RIDGE. STILL...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY. THE GFS WAS REALLY LOW
WITH POPS AND I USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO FOR THE POP FORECAST.
WITH LESS PRECIP AROUND...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS (90-95). /CME/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
TYPICAL 20-30% AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

THE CURRENT SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF TO THE NE BY LABOR DAY AND A SUBTROPICAL H7-H5
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE NRN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL. DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHT INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED /NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/, ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL
BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL
EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW
100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES.  /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO TREND DOWNWARD TO MVFR WITH A SITE
OR TWO SEEING IFR FOR A PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE PRECIP MOVING
NORTHWARD WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
WHILE ALSO LOWERING VIS AT TIMES. THE MAIN PRECIP WILL EXIST BETWEEN
14-21Z FOR THE TAF SITES AND I WILL FOCUS THE WORST CONDITIONS THEN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS. AFTER THAT...IMPROVEMENTS WILL OCCUR...BUT NOT LAST TOO
LONG. LOOK FOR A TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD THE LAST
QUARTER OF THE TAF PERIOD. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  73  93  74 /  87  37  22   7
MERIDIAN      90  72  93  72 /  71  27  19   7
VICKSBURG     85  73  92  72 /  96  40  25   7
HATTIESBURG   91  75  96  74 /  74  19  12  13
NATCHEZ       85  73  92  74 /  92  30  18  12
GREENVILLE    84  73  91  73 /  98  60  39   6
GREENWOOD     86  74  92  73 /  96  58  39   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/ALLEN/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 300836
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON TAP AS HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
FUEL SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHER GULF AND S-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF LA. RECENT DAYS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK STILL EXISTS AS EFFICIENT
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF
THE 2.2-2.4 IN PW AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR GUSTY
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS AS WELL. THE REASON FOR THIS NEW
THREAT RESIDES IN THE INCREASED FLOW BETWEEN THE 2-12 KFT LAYER.
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LAYER WILL CONTAIN 30-40 KTS OF
FLOW. WHILE HEATING TODAY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL BE QUITE TAME...MID/UPPER 80S DEGREE TEMPS WILL SUPPORT
SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION (ESP WITH THE DISTURBANCE PROVIDING STRONG
FORCING). FURTHERMORE...ORGANIZING CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
UTILIZE THE INCREASED FLOW TO ORGANIZE COLD POOLS. IF ANY COLD POOL
ORGANIZES IN A FASHION WHERE IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE FLOW BELOW
12KFT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN A NNE DIRECTION) BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND LIKELY EFFICIENTLY BRING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IN
TURN...THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE INCREASED FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY TO VALUES THAT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A PRIMARY THREAT...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT. DUE TO ADDED
RISKS...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED SVR RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR
A LOCATION...MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A RISK...THE EXCEPTIONS LOOK
TO THE BE THE FAR SW AND THE I-59 CORRIDOR. BEST TIMING WOULD BE FROM
11AM TO 5PM. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING AND THREAT
AREA.

AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS (POPS AND WEATHER)...GUIDANCE POPS
WERE HIGHER FROM THE PREV RUNS AND I FOLLOWED THOSE HIGH VALUES AND
INCREASED SOME LOCATIONS TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECASTS. THE
MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WAS ADJUSTED...THE SW LOOKS TO BE THE
AREA THAT GETS IT FIRST AND EARLIEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT...MUCH MORE OF TRICKY FORECAST EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL PERIOD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MOST
OF THE EVE...THEN ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW/N
AREAS. THE S HALF LOOKS TO SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN PREV EXPECTED AS
DRIER AIR MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN S/WV.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS WELL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR
MOVING UP FROM THE S/SE AROUND THE EVOLVING RIDGE. STILL...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY. THE GFS WAS REALLY LOW
WITH POPS AND I USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO FOR THE POP FORECAST.
WITH LESS PRECIP AROUND...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS (90-95). /CME/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
TYPICAL 20-30% AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

THE CURRENT SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF TO THE NE BY LABOR DAY AND A SUBTROPICAL H7-H5
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE NRN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL. DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHT INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED /NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/, ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL
BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL
EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW
100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES.  /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO TREND DOWNWARD TO MVFR WITH A SITE
OR TWO SEEING IFR FOR A PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE PRECIP MOVING
NORTHWARD WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
WHILE ALSO LOWERING VIS AT TIMES. THE MAIN PRECIP WILL EXIST BETWEEN
14-21Z FOR THE TAF SITES AND I WILL FOCUS THE WORST CONDITIONS THEN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS. AFTER THAT...IMPROVEMENTS WILL OCCUR...BUT NOT LAST TOO
LONG. LOOK FOR A TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD THE LAST
QUARTER OF THE TAF PERIOD. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  73  93  74 /  87  37  22   7
MERIDIAN      90  72  93  72 /  71  27  19   7
VICKSBURG     85  73  92  72 /  96  40  25   7
HATTIESBURG   91  75  96  74 /  74  19  12  13
NATCHEZ       85  73  92  74 /  92  30  18  12
GREENVILLE    84  73  91  73 /  98  60  39   6
GREENWOOD     86  74  92  73 /  96  58  39   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/ALLEN/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 300836
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON TAP AS HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
FUEL SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHER GULF AND S-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF LA. RECENT DAYS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK STILL EXISTS AS EFFICIENT
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF
THE 2.2-2.4 IN PW AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR GUSTY
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS AS WELL. THE REASON FOR THIS NEW
THREAT RESIDES IN THE INCREASED FLOW BETWEEN THE 2-12 KFT LAYER.
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LAYER WILL CONTAIN 30-40 KTS OF
FLOW. WHILE HEATING TODAY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL BE QUITE TAME...MID/UPPER 80S DEGREE TEMPS WILL SUPPORT
SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION (ESP WITH THE DISTURBANCE PROVIDING STRONG
FORCING). FURTHERMORE...ORGANIZING CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
UTILIZE THE INCREASED FLOW TO ORGANIZE COLD POOLS. IF ANY COLD POOL
ORGANIZES IN A FASHION WHERE IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE FLOW BELOW
12KFT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN A NNE DIRECTION) BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND LIKELY EFFICIENTLY BRING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IN
TURN...THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE INCREASED FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY TO VALUES THAT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A PRIMARY THREAT...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT. DUE TO ADDED
RISKS...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED SVR RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR
A LOCATION...MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A RISK...THE EXCEPTIONS LOOK
TO THE BE THE FAR SW AND THE I-59 CORRIDOR. BEST TIMING WOULD BE FROM
11AM TO 5PM. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING AND THREAT
AREA.

AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS (POPS AND WEATHER)...GUIDANCE POPS
WERE HIGHER FROM THE PREV RUNS AND I FOLLOWED THOSE HIGH VALUES AND
INCREASED SOME LOCATIONS TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECASTS. THE
MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WAS ADJUSTED...THE SW LOOKS TO BE THE
AREA THAT GETS IT FIRST AND EARLIEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT...MUCH MORE OF TRICKY FORECAST EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL PERIOD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MOST
OF THE EVE...THEN ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW/N
AREAS. THE S HALF LOOKS TO SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN PREV EXPECTED AS
DRIER AIR MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN S/WV.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS WELL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR
MOVING UP FROM THE S/SE AROUND THE EVOLVING RIDGE. STILL...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY. THE GFS WAS REALLY LOW
WITH POPS AND I USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO FOR THE POP FORECAST.
WITH LESS PRECIP AROUND...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS (90-95). /CME/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
TYPICAL 20-30% AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

THE CURRENT SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF TO THE NE BY LABOR DAY AND A SUBTROPICAL H7-H5
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE NRN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL. DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHT INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED /NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/, ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL
BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL
EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW
100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES.  /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO TREND DOWNWARD TO MVFR WITH A SITE
OR TWO SEEING IFR FOR A PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE PRECIP MOVING
NORTHWARD WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
WHILE ALSO LOWERING VIS AT TIMES. THE MAIN PRECIP WILL EXIST BETWEEN
14-21Z FOR THE TAF SITES AND I WILL FOCUS THE WORST CONDITIONS THEN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS. AFTER THAT...IMPROVEMENTS WILL OCCUR...BUT NOT LAST TOO
LONG. LOOK FOR A TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD THE LAST
QUARTER OF THE TAF PERIOD. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  73  93  74 /  87  37  22   7
MERIDIAN      90  72  93  72 /  71  27  19   7
VICKSBURG     85  73  92  72 /  96  40  25   7
HATTIESBURG   91  75  96  74 /  74  19  12  13
NATCHEZ       85  73  92  74 /  92  30  18  12
GREENVILLE    84  73  91  73 /  98  60  39   6
GREENWOOD     86  74  92  73 /  96  58  39   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/ALLEN/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 300836
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON TAP AS HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
FUEL SHRA/TSRA TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHER GULF AND S-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF LA. RECENT DAYS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK STILL EXISTS AS EFFICIENT
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF
THE 2.2-2.4 IN PW AIRMASS. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR GUSTY
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS AS WELL. THE REASON FOR THIS NEW
THREAT RESIDES IN THE INCREASED FLOW BETWEEN THE 2-12 KFT LAYER.
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LAYER WILL CONTAIN 30-40 KTS OF
FLOW. WHILE HEATING TODAY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL BE QUITE TAME...MID/UPPER 80S DEGREE TEMPS WILL SUPPORT
SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION (ESP WITH THE DISTURBANCE PROVIDING STRONG
FORCING). FURTHERMORE...ORGANIZING CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
UTILIZE THE INCREASED FLOW TO ORGANIZE COLD POOLS. IF ANY COLD POOL
ORGANIZES IN A FASHION WHERE IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE FLOW BELOW
12KFT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN A NNE DIRECTION) BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND LIKELY EFFICIENTLY BRING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IN
TURN...THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IT IS ALSO WORTH
NOTING THAT THE INCREASED FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY TO VALUES THAT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A PRIMARY THREAT...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT. DUE TO ADDED
RISKS...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED SVR RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AS FOR
A LOCATION...MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A RISK...THE EXCEPTIONS LOOK
TO THE BE THE FAR SW AND THE I-59 CORRIDOR. BEST TIMING WOULD BE FROM
11AM TO 5PM. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING AND THREAT
AREA.

AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS (POPS AND WEATHER)...GUIDANCE POPS
WERE HIGHER FROM THE PREV RUNS AND I FOLLOWED THOSE HIGH VALUES AND
INCREASED SOME LOCATIONS TO STAY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECASTS. THE
MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WAS ADJUSTED...THE SW LOOKS TO BE THE
AREA THAT GETS IT FIRST AND EARLIEST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT...MUCH MORE OF TRICKY FORECAST EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL PERIOD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO MOST
OF THE EVE...THEN ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NW/N
AREAS. THE S HALF LOOKS TO SEE LESS ACTIVITY THAN PREV EXPECTED AS
DRIER AIR MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN S/WV.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS ACTIVE AS WELL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR
MOVING UP FROM THE S/SE AROUND THE EVOLVING RIDGE. STILL...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY. THE GFS WAS REALLY LOW
WITH POPS AND I USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO FOR THE POP FORECAST.
WITH LESS PRECIP AROUND...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS (90-95). /CME/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
TYPICAL 20-30% AFTERNOON CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE/CENTRAL CONUS.

THE CURRENT SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WILL PULL OFF TO THE NE BY LABOR DAY AND A SUBTROPICAL H7-H5
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE NRN STREAM FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL. DESPITE LOW-LVL HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHT INFLUENCE OVER REGION MOST OF THE WEEK, PWATS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED /NEAR 2"/ AND COMBINED WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG+/, ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. OVERALL COVERAGE WONT BE GREAT BUT FEEL BEST COVERAGE WILL
BE IN S/SE/E WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PWATS WILL
EXIST. HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW
100S FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT FEEL
IT STAY NORTH AND THUS KEPT POPS/SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER AREA AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BUT SEA-BREEZE INITIATED AND
DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGING SLIPS FARTHER WEST AND PLACES REGION IN
SLIGHTLY GREATER N/NE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE SHOWER COVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES.  /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO TREND DOWNWARD TO MVFR WITH A SITE
OR TWO SEEING IFR FOR A PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE PRECIP MOVING
NORTHWARD WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
WHILE ALSO LOWERING VIS AT TIMES. THE MAIN PRECIP WILL EXIST BETWEEN
14-21Z FOR THE TAF SITES AND I WILL FOCUS THE WORST CONDITIONS THEN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME STRONGER
STORMS. AFTER THAT...IMPROVEMENTS WILL OCCUR...BUT NOT LAST TOO
LONG. LOOK FOR A TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD THE LAST
QUARTER OF THE TAF PERIOD. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  73  93  74 /  87  37  22   7
MERIDIAN      90  72  93  72 /  71  27  19   7
VICKSBURG     85  73  92  72 /  96  40  25   7
HATTIESBURG   91  75  96  74 /  74  19  12  13
NATCHEZ       85  73  92  74 /  92  30  18  12
GREENVILLE    84  73  91  73 /  98  60  39   6
GREENWOOD     86  74  92  73 /  96  58  39   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/ALLEN/






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