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000
FXUS64 KJAN 272044
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL LAPS DATA IS CONTINUING TO SHOW WHAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MIXING
OUT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 60S RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES AT
OR BELOW 100. BUT THE WESTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO BE OPPRESSIVE AS MID
70S DEWPOINTS AND UPPER 90S TEMPS RESULT IN HEAT INDICES FIRMLY IN
THE 106-110 RANGE. BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO WILL BE ACTED OUT ONE MORE
DAY BEFORE SOME CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR.

UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE LOSING SOME OF ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AS A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE WE
WILL SEE THIS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE.

CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY AT PRESENT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...DIVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...AN EVEN STRONGER WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND FLATTENING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS
WAVE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT LOOKS AS THOUGH
WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE REGION BY THURSDAY. A GOOD SCATTERING OF
STORMS LOOKS PROMISING FOR THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES IN...BUT
EVEN BETTER WILL BE THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT MOVES IN BEHIND. THE RAW
GFS IS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THE 90 DEGREE HEAT WILL CONTINUE...A DRY HEAT WILL BE MUCH PREFERRED
TO THE HUMID AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING./26/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY FOG (MAINLY MVFR) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT A FEW TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO, ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AT MEI AND GTR,
WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO BRIEF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS. /15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  99  74  97 /  11  15  15  34
MERIDIAN      72  97  74  97 /  11  18  19  36
VICKSBURG     75  98  75  98 /  11  15  13  24
HATTIESBURG   73  98  74  97 /  11  17  18  32
NATCHEZ       73  95  74  95 /  11  15  11  22
GREENVILLE    75  98  75  99 /  11  15  12  22
GREENWOOD     74  97  74  97 /  11  15  12  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
     040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/15



000
FXUS64 KJAN 272044
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL LAPS DATA IS CONTINUING TO SHOW WHAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MIXING
OUT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 60S RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES AT
OR BELOW 100. BUT THE WESTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO BE OPPRESSIVE AS MID
70S DEWPOINTS AND UPPER 90S TEMPS RESULT IN HEAT INDICES FIRMLY IN
THE 106-110 RANGE. BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO WILL BE ACTED OUT ONE MORE
DAY BEFORE SOME CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR.

UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE LOSING SOME OF ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AS A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE WE
WILL SEE THIS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE.

CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY AT PRESENT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...DIVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...AN EVEN STRONGER WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND FLATTENING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS
WAVE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT LOOKS AS THOUGH
WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE REGION BY THURSDAY. A GOOD SCATTERING OF
STORMS LOOKS PROMISING FOR THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES IN...BUT
EVEN BETTER WILL BE THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT MOVES IN BEHIND. THE RAW
GFS IS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THE 90 DEGREE HEAT WILL CONTINUE...A DRY HEAT WILL BE MUCH PREFERRED
TO THE HUMID AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING./26/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY FOG (MAINLY MVFR) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT A FEW TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO, ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AT MEI AND GTR,
WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO BRIEF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS. /15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  99  74  97 /  11  15  15  34
MERIDIAN      72  97  74  97 /  11  18  19  36
VICKSBURG     75  98  75  98 /  11  15  13  24
HATTIESBURG   73  98  74  97 /  11  17  18  32
NATCHEZ       73  95  74  95 /  11  15  11  22
GREENVILLE    75  98  75  99 /  11  15  12  22
GREENWOOD     74  97  74  97 /  11  15  12  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
     040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/15




000
FXUS64 KJAN 271540
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LARGE SEMI-PERMANENT ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLATEX. IT IS SOMEWHAT MORE DIRTY THOUGH TODAY DUE TO PERIMETER
CONVECTIVE ANVIL DEBRIS AND SOME SMALL WARM ADVECTION PLUMES FROM
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER. BROAD
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
CHECK...HOWEVER...STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH AL/E MS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES OF 106-110 IN THE CURRENT RUNNING HEAT ADVISORY. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES/UPDATES PLANNED./26/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY FOG (MAINLY MVFR) CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT A FEW TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO, ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AT MEI AND GTR, WHICH COULD
ALSO LEAD TO BRIEF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS. /DL/15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE DOMINANT THEME TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED A BIT FARTHER WEST, ALLOWING PERIODIC
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. CULLING THROUGH
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, THERE WAS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TODAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WHERE THE GFS IS PROGGING AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THOSE ZONES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A SIMILAR DAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE A BIT FARTHER WEST IN THE AREA, AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE.

CONCERNING HEAT STRESS, TOOK A VERY SIMILAR APPROACH TO THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT WITH RESPECT TO DEWPOINTS. THERE WAS GREATER MIXING GENERALLY
EAST OF THE DELTA YESTERDAY, WHICH ALLOWED HEAT INDICES IN MOST OF
THOSE LOCALES TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THUS FORECAST DEWPOINTS WERE HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD SUNDAY`S OBSERVED DAYTIME READINGS. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS
BASED HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE AS WELL, WITH JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS YIELDED HEAT INDICES MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA
GENERALLY OVER THE DELTA COUNTIES IN MS AND ALL OF OUR AR COUNTIES
AND LA PARISHES, SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING NPW AREA. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY IN TIME INTO
TUESDAY, WHEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

THANKS TO MEG FOR COORDINATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE STORY FOR THE MED
RANGE/LONG TERM WILL BE ONE OF A SLIGHT PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP FOR MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS
WILL LOWER HUMIDITY.

THE STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BUT SOME CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY. THANKS TO A STRONG LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED-THU...WE WILL SEE THE
CENTER OF OUR LINGERING RIDGE RETROGRADE AND BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC FRONT TO SLIP
INTO THE AREA LATER ON THU AND ACTUALLY BRING QUITE A BIT DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WELL INTO THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE THAT LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE FRI-SUN
TIMEFRAME. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE`VE BEEN
SEEING...BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FRI-SAT LOOK TO PEAK BETWEEN 92-
94 WHILE SUN-MON WILL TREND HOTTER WITH HIGHS 94-98. RELIEF WILL
LIKELY COME IN MORNING LOWS AS SOME OF THE AREA (MAINLY N HALF) WILL
SEE SOME UPPER 60S FRI-SUN. HERE IS WHERE THE MAJOR CHANGES WERE IN
THE FORECAST AND GOING WITH COOLER LOW TEMPS.

BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON WED WITH HIGHS 96-100. CONDITIONS WILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110. THU
WILL BE ANOTHER OPPRESSIVE DAY...BUT THERE WILL EXIST MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS AS CLOUDS OR INFLUENCES FROM STORMS MAY
LIMIT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. DESPITE THAT...DEW
PTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HOLD QUITE HIGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT
INDEX PEAKING >105.

DECENT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST LATE WED AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THU. DURING THIS TIME THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOSEN IT GRIP AND
WE WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SFC FRONT.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER WED AND
INTO THU AS VERY HOT SFC TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SETUP
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ROBUST STORMS. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE
HWO FREE OF ANY SEVERE STORM WORDING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       99  76  99  77 /   9   8  20  15
MERIDIAN      96  73  97  75 /  16   8  19  19
VICKSBURG     98  75  98  76 /   7   7  15  11
HATTIESBURG   97  74  98  76 /  11   7  16  15
NATCHEZ       93  74  95  75 /  10   8  16  11
GREENVILLE    98  76  98  77 /   6   5   9  11
GREENWOOD     97  75  97  76 /   8   7  12  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
     040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KJAN 271540
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LARGE SEMI-PERMANENT ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLATEX. IT IS SOMEWHAT MORE DIRTY THOUGH TODAY DUE TO PERIMETER
CONVECTIVE ANVIL DEBRIS AND SOME SMALL WARM ADVECTION PLUMES FROM
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER. BROAD
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
CHECK...HOWEVER...STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH AL/E MS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES OF 106-110 IN THE CURRENT RUNNING HEAT ADVISORY. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES/UPDATES PLANNED./26/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY FOG (MAINLY MVFR) CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT A FEW TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO, ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AT MEI AND GTR, WHICH COULD
ALSO LEAD TO BRIEF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS. /DL/15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE DOMINANT THEME TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED A BIT FARTHER WEST, ALLOWING PERIODIC
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. CULLING THROUGH
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, THERE WAS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TODAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WHERE THE GFS IS PROGGING AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THOSE ZONES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A SIMILAR DAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE A BIT FARTHER WEST IN THE AREA, AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE.

CONCERNING HEAT STRESS, TOOK A VERY SIMILAR APPROACH TO THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT WITH RESPECT TO DEWPOINTS. THERE WAS GREATER MIXING GENERALLY
EAST OF THE DELTA YESTERDAY, WHICH ALLOWED HEAT INDICES IN MOST OF
THOSE LOCALES TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THUS FORECAST DEWPOINTS WERE HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD SUNDAY`S OBSERVED DAYTIME READINGS. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS
BASED HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE AS WELL, WITH JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS YIELDED HEAT INDICES MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA
GENERALLY OVER THE DELTA COUNTIES IN MS AND ALL OF OUR AR COUNTIES
AND LA PARISHES, SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING NPW AREA. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY IN TIME INTO
TUESDAY, WHEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

THANKS TO MEG FOR COORDINATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE STORY FOR THE MED
RANGE/LONG TERM WILL BE ONE OF A SLIGHT PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP FOR MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS
WILL LOWER HUMIDITY.

THE STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BUT SOME CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY. THANKS TO A STRONG LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED-THU...WE WILL SEE THE
CENTER OF OUR LINGERING RIDGE RETROGRADE AND BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC FRONT TO SLIP
INTO THE AREA LATER ON THU AND ACTUALLY BRING QUITE A BIT DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WELL INTO THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE THAT LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE FRI-SUN
TIMEFRAME. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE`VE BEEN
SEEING...BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FRI-SAT LOOK TO PEAK BETWEEN 92-
94 WHILE SUN-MON WILL TREND HOTTER WITH HIGHS 94-98. RELIEF WILL
LIKELY COME IN MORNING LOWS AS SOME OF THE AREA (MAINLY N HALF) WILL
SEE SOME UPPER 60S FRI-SUN. HERE IS WHERE THE MAJOR CHANGES WERE IN
THE FORECAST AND GOING WITH COOLER LOW TEMPS.

BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON WED WITH HIGHS 96-100. CONDITIONS WILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110. THU
WILL BE ANOTHER OPPRESSIVE DAY...BUT THERE WILL EXIST MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS AS CLOUDS OR INFLUENCES FROM STORMS MAY
LIMIT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. DESPITE THAT...DEW
PTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HOLD QUITE HIGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT
INDEX PEAKING >105.

DECENT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST LATE WED AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THU. DURING THIS TIME THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOSEN IT GRIP AND
WE WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SFC FRONT.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER WED AND
INTO THU AS VERY HOT SFC TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SETUP
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ROBUST STORMS. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE
HWO FREE OF ANY SEVERE STORM WORDING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       99  76  99  77 /   9   8  20  15
MERIDIAN      96  73  97  75 /  16   8  19  19
VICKSBURG     98  75  98  76 /   7   7  15  11
HATTIESBURG   97  74  98  76 /  11   7  16  15
NATCHEZ       93  74  95  75 /  10   8  16  11
GREENVILLE    98  76  98  77 /   6   5   9  11
GREENWOOD     97  75  97  76 /   8   7  12  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
     040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 271540
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LARGE SEMI-PERMANENT ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLATEX. IT IS SOMEWHAT MORE DIRTY THOUGH TODAY DUE TO PERIMETER
CONVECTIVE ANVIL DEBRIS AND SOME SMALL WARM ADVECTION PLUMES FROM
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER. BROAD
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
CHECK...HOWEVER...STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH AL/E MS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES OF 106-110 IN THE CURRENT RUNNING HEAT ADVISORY. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES/UPDATES PLANNED./26/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PATCHY FOG (MAINLY MVFR) CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT A FEW TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO, ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AT MEI AND GTR, WHICH COULD
ALSO LEAD TO BRIEF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS. /DL/15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE DOMINANT THEME TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED A BIT FARTHER WEST, ALLOWING PERIODIC
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. CULLING THROUGH
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, THERE WAS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TODAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WHERE THE GFS IS PROGGING AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THOSE ZONES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A SIMILAR DAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE A BIT FARTHER WEST IN THE AREA, AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE.

CONCERNING HEAT STRESS, TOOK A VERY SIMILAR APPROACH TO THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT WITH RESPECT TO DEWPOINTS. THERE WAS GREATER MIXING GENERALLY
EAST OF THE DELTA YESTERDAY, WHICH ALLOWED HEAT INDICES IN MOST OF
THOSE LOCALES TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THUS FORECAST DEWPOINTS WERE HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD SUNDAY`S OBSERVED DAYTIME READINGS. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS
BASED HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE AS WELL, WITH JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS YIELDED HEAT INDICES MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA
GENERALLY OVER THE DELTA COUNTIES IN MS AND ALL OF OUR AR COUNTIES
AND LA PARISHES, SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING NPW AREA. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY IN TIME INTO
TUESDAY, WHEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

THANKS TO MEG FOR COORDINATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE STORY FOR THE MED
RANGE/LONG TERM WILL BE ONE OF A SLIGHT PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP FOR MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS
WILL LOWER HUMIDITY.

THE STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BUT SOME CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY. THANKS TO A STRONG LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED-THU...WE WILL SEE THE
CENTER OF OUR LINGERING RIDGE RETROGRADE AND BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC FRONT TO SLIP
INTO THE AREA LATER ON THU AND ACTUALLY BRING QUITE A BIT DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WELL INTO THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE THAT LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE FRI-SUN
TIMEFRAME. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE`VE BEEN
SEEING...BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FRI-SAT LOOK TO PEAK BETWEEN 92-
94 WHILE SUN-MON WILL TREND HOTTER WITH HIGHS 94-98. RELIEF WILL
LIKELY COME IN MORNING LOWS AS SOME OF THE AREA (MAINLY N HALF) WILL
SEE SOME UPPER 60S FRI-SUN. HERE IS WHERE THE MAJOR CHANGES WERE IN
THE FORECAST AND GOING WITH COOLER LOW TEMPS.

BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON WED WITH HIGHS 96-100. CONDITIONS WILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110. THU
WILL BE ANOTHER OPPRESSIVE DAY...BUT THERE WILL EXIST MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS AS CLOUDS OR INFLUENCES FROM STORMS MAY
LIMIT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. DESPITE THAT...DEW
PTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HOLD QUITE HIGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT
INDEX PEAKING >105.

DECENT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST LATE WED AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THU. DURING THIS TIME THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOSEN IT GRIP AND
WE WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SFC FRONT.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER WED AND
INTO THU AS VERY HOT SFC TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SETUP
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ROBUST STORMS. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE
HWO FREE OF ANY SEVERE STORM WORDING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       99  76  99  77 /   9   8  20  15
MERIDIAN      96  73  97  75 /  16   8  19  19
VICKSBURG     98  75  98  76 /   7   7  15  11
HATTIESBURG   97  74  98  76 /  11   7  16  15
NATCHEZ       93  74  95  75 /  10   8  16  11
GREENVILLE    98  76  98  77 /   6   5   9  11
GREENWOOD     97  75  97  76 /   8   7  12  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
     040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KJAN 270910
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE DOMINANT THEME TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED A BIT FARTHER WEST, ALLOWING PERIODIC
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. CULLING THROUGH
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, THERE WAS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TODAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WHERE THE GFS IS PROGGING AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THOSE ZONES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A SIMILAR DAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE A BIT FARTHER WEST IN THE AREA, AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE.

CONCERNING HEAT STRESS, TOOK A VERY SIMILAR APPROACH TO THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT WITH RESPECT TO DEWPOINTS. THERE WAS GREATER MIXING GENERALLY
EAST OF THE DELTA YESTERDAY, WHICH ALLOWED HEAT INDICES IN MOST OF
THOSE LOCALES TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THUS FORECAST DEWPOINTS WERE HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD SUNDAY`S OBSERVED DAYTIME READINGS. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS
BASED HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE AS WELL, WITH JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS YIELDED HEAT INDICES MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA
GENERALLY OVER THE DELTA COUNTIES IN MS AND ALL OF OUR AR COUNTIES
AND LA PARISHES, SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING NPW AREA. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY IN TIME INTO
TUESDAY, WHEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

THANKS TO MEG FOR COORDINATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE STORY FOR THE MED
RANGE/LONG TERM WILL BE ONE OF A SLIGHT PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP FOR MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS
WILL LOWER HUMIDITY.

THE STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BUT SOME CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY. THANKS TO A STRONG LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED-THU...WE WILL SEE THE
CENTER OF OUR LINGERING RIDGE RETROGRADE AND BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC FRONT TO SLIP
INTO THE AREA LATER ON THU AND ACTUALLY BRING QUITE A BIT DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WELL INTO THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE THAT LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE FRI-SUN
TIMEFRAME. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE`VE BEEN
SEEING...BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FRI-SAT LOOK TO PEAK BETWEEN 92-
94 WHILE SUN-MON WILL TREND HOTTER WITH HIGHS 94-98. RELIEF WILL
LIKELY COME IN MORNING LOWS AS SOME OF THE AREA (MAINLY N HALF) WILL
SEE SOME UPPER 60S FRI-SUN. HERE IS WHERE THE MAJOR CHANGES WERE IN
THE FORECAST AND GOING WITH COOLER LOW TEMPS.

BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON WED WITH HIGHS 96-100. CONDITIONS WILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110. THU
WILL BE ANOTHER OPPRESSIVE DAY...BUT THERE WILL EXIST MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS AS CLOUDS OR INFLUENCES FROM STORMS MAY
LIMIT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. DESPITE THAT...DEW
PTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HOLD QUITE HIGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT
INDEX PEAKING >105.

DECENT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST LATE WED AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THU. DURING THIS TIME THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOSEN IT GRIP AND
WE WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SFC FRONT.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER WED AND
INTO THU AS VERY HOT SFC TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SETUP
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ROBUST STORMS. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE
HWO FREE OF ANY SEVERE STORM WORDING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
/CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
MOST SITES. BRIEF PATCHY FOG (MAINLY MVFR) CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT A
FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ALSO, ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AT MEI AND GTR, WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO BRIEF
CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       99  76  99  77 /   9   8  20  15
MERIDIAN      96  73  97  75 /  16   8  19  19
VICKSBURG     98  75  98  76 /   7   7  15  11
HATTIESBURG   97  74  98  76 /  11   7  16  15
NATCHEZ       93  74  95  75 /  10   8  16  11
GREENVILLE    98  76  98  77 /   6   5   9  11
GREENWOOD     97  75  97  76 /   8   7  12  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
     040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/CME




000
FXUS64 KJAN 270910
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE DOMINANT THEME TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED A BIT FARTHER WEST, ALLOWING PERIODIC
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. CULLING THROUGH
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, THERE WAS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TODAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WHERE THE GFS IS PROGGING AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THOSE ZONES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A SIMILAR DAY, THOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE A BIT FARTHER WEST IN THE AREA, AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE.

CONCERNING HEAT STRESS, TOOK A VERY SIMILAR APPROACH TO THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT WITH RESPECT TO DEWPOINTS. THERE WAS GREATER MIXING GENERALLY
EAST OF THE DELTA YESTERDAY, WHICH ALLOWED HEAT INDICES IN MOST OF
THOSE LOCALES TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THUS FORECAST DEWPOINTS WERE HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD SUNDAY`S OBSERVED DAYTIME READINGS. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS
BASED HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE AS WELL, WITH JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS YIELDED HEAT INDICES MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA
GENERALLY OVER THE DELTA COUNTIES IN MS AND ALL OF OUR AR COUNTIES
AND LA PARISHES, SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING NPW AREA. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY IN TIME INTO
TUESDAY, WHEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

THANKS TO MEG FOR COORDINATION. /DL/

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE STORY FOR THE MED
RANGE/LONG TERM WILL BE ONE OF A SLIGHT PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP FOR MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS
WILL LOWER HUMIDITY.

THE STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BUT SOME CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY. THANKS TO A STRONG LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED-THU...WE WILL SEE THE
CENTER OF OUR LINGERING RIDGE RETROGRADE AND BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC FRONT TO SLIP
INTO THE AREA LATER ON THU AND ACTUALLY BRING QUITE A BIT DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WELL INTO THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE THAT LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE FRI-SUN
TIMEFRAME. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE`VE BEEN
SEEING...BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE. FRI-SAT LOOK TO PEAK BETWEEN 92-
94 WHILE SUN-MON WILL TREND HOTTER WITH HIGHS 94-98. RELIEF WILL
LIKELY COME IN MORNING LOWS AS SOME OF THE AREA (MAINLY N HALF) WILL
SEE SOME UPPER 60S FRI-SUN. HERE IS WHERE THE MAJOR CHANGES WERE IN
THE FORECAST AND GOING WITH COOLER LOW TEMPS.

BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON WED WITH HIGHS 96-100. CONDITIONS WILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 105-110. THU
WILL BE ANOTHER OPPRESSIVE DAY...BUT THERE WILL EXIST MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS AS CLOUDS OR INFLUENCES FROM STORMS MAY
LIMIT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. DESPITE THAT...DEW
PTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HOLD QUITE HIGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT
INDEX PEAKING >105.

DECENT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST LATE WED AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THU. DURING THIS TIME THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOSEN IT GRIP AND
WE WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SFC FRONT.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER WED AND
INTO THU AS VERY HOT SFC TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SETUP
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ROBUST STORMS. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE
HWO FREE OF ANY SEVERE STORM WORDING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
/CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
MOST SITES. BRIEF PATCHY FOG (MAINLY MVFR) CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT A
FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ALSO, ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AT MEI AND GTR, WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO BRIEF
CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       99  76  99  77 /   9   8  20  15
MERIDIAN      96  73  97  75 /  16   8  19  19
VICKSBURG     98  75  98  76 /   7   7  15  11
HATTIESBURG   97  74  98  76 /  11   7  16  15
NATCHEZ       93  74  95  75 /  10   8  16  11
GREENVILLE    98  76  98  77 /   6   5   9  11
GREENWOOD     97  75  97  76 /   8   7  12  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
     040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/CME



000
FXUS64 KJAN 270248 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED OVER THE
SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED. TEMPERATURES WERE ON
TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST MONDAY WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVE ENDED FOR
THE NIGHT AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES AT 230Z AND VFR CONDS
WL CONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCARCE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THANKS
TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIRMASS. THE ONLY LOCATION SEEING
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR SE.

ALSO OF NOTE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE DEWPOINTS WHICH HAVE MIXED
OUT INTO THE 60S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS HAS IN TURN
MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO EVEN REACH 100. FURTHER WEST
THOUGH...INDICES CONTINUE IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE AS DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE MS RIVER.

MOS AND THE MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THE DRIER
AIR OVER THE EAST AS THEY CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AGAIN TOMORROW. GFS RAW/BUFR DATA ON THE OTHER HAND ARE SHOWING
WELL MIXED OUT LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH IS CLOSER TO REALITY.

DESPITE THE OVERALL LOWER DEWPOINTS...THEY STILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE DELTA REGION TO WARRANT ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY INTO MONDAY. DID PUSH THE EASTERN EDGE WESTWARD A BIT TO
CONFORM WITH THE BETTER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE MS RIVER.

LOOKING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HIGH CENTER REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC/SUBSIDENT
FLOW OVER THE REGION. SHORTWAVES REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...BUT
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN THEM AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. SOME RELIEF DOES
LOOK POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE WEEK...HOWEVER...AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE OF AN IMPACT FROM PASSING
SHORTWAVES WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
ALSO...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS WELL WITH LOW TO MID 90S
BEING MORE PREVALENT THAN THE UPPER 90S/100 OF LATE./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  97  73  97 /   3   4   8  17
MERIDIAN      71  97  74  96 /   4   7  11  19
VICKSBURG     73  97  74  98 /   3   6   7  13
HATTIESBURG   72  97  75  97 /   5   7   8  19
NATCHEZ       75  96  75  96 /   5  10   8  13
GREENVILLE    75  98  76  98 /   2   7   6  10
GREENWOOD     73  97  75  97 /   2   6  10  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-034-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 270248 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGERED OVER THE
SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED. TEMPERATURES WERE ON
TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST MONDAY WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVE ENDED FOR
THE NIGHT AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES AT 230Z AND VFR CONDS
WL CONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCARCE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THANKS
TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIRMASS. THE ONLY LOCATION SEEING
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR SE.

ALSO OF NOTE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE DEWPOINTS WHICH HAVE MIXED
OUT INTO THE 60S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS HAS IN TURN
MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO EVEN REACH 100. FURTHER WEST
THOUGH...INDICES CONTINUE IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE AS DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE MS RIVER.

MOS AND THE MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THE DRIER
AIR OVER THE EAST AS THEY CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AGAIN TOMORROW. GFS RAW/BUFR DATA ON THE OTHER HAND ARE SHOWING
WELL MIXED OUT LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH IS CLOSER TO REALITY.

DESPITE THE OVERALL LOWER DEWPOINTS...THEY STILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE DELTA REGION TO WARRANT ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY INTO MONDAY. DID PUSH THE EASTERN EDGE WESTWARD A BIT TO
CONFORM WITH THE BETTER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE MS RIVER.

LOOKING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HIGH CENTER REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC/SUBSIDENT
FLOW OVER THE REGION. SHORTWAVES REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...BUT
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN THEM AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. SOME RELIEF DOES
LOOK POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE WEEK...HOWEVER...AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE OF AN IMPACT FROM PASSING
SHORTWAVES WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
ALSO...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS WELL WITH LOW TO MID 90S
BEING MORE PREVALENT THAN THE UPPER 90S/100 OF LATE./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  97  73  97 /   3   4   8  17
MERIDIAN      71  97  74  96 /   4   7  11  19
VICKSBURG     73  97  74  98 /   3   6   7  13
HATTIESBURG   72  97  75  97 /   5   7   8  19
NATCHEZ       75  96  75  96 /   5  10   8  13
GREENVILLE    75  98  76  98 /   2   7   6  10
GREENWOOD     73  97  75  97 /   2   6  10  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-034-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 262058
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCARCE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THANKS
TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIRMASS. THE ONLY LOCATION SEEING
ANY CONVECTION THS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR SE.

ALSO OF NOTE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE DEWPOINTS WHICH HAVE MIXED
OUT INTO THE 60S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS HAS IN TURN
MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO EVEN REACH 100. FURTHER WEST
THOUGH...INDICES CONTINUE IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE AS DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE MS RIVER.

MOS AND THE MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THE DRIER
AIR OVER THE EAST AS THEY CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AGAIN TOMORROW. GFS RAW/BUFR DATA ON THE OTHER HAND ARE SHOWING
WELL MIXED OUT LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH IS CLOSER TO REALITY.

DESPITE THE OVERALL LOWER DEWPOINTS...THEY STILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE DELTA REGION TO WARRANT ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY INTO MONDAY. DID PUSH THE EASTERN EDGE WESTWARD A BIT TO
CONFORM WITH THE BETTER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE MS RIVER.

LOOKING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HIGH CENTER REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC/SUBSIDENT
FLOW OVER THE REGION. SHORTWAVES REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...BUT
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN THEM AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. SOME RELIEF DOES
LOOK POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE WEEK...HOWEVER...AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE OF AN IMPACT FROM PASSING
SHORTWAVES WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
ALSO...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS WELL WITH LOW TO MID 90S
BEING MORE PREVALENT THAN THE UPPER 90S/100 OF LATE./26/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  97  73  97 /   3   4   8  17
MERIDIAN      71  97  74  96 /   3   7  11  19
VICKSBURG     73  97  74  98 /   3   6   7  13
HATTIESBURG   72  97  75  97 /   4   7   8  19
NATCHEZ       75  96  75  96 /   8  10   8  13
GREENVILLE    75  98  76  98 /   2   7   6  10
GREENWOOD     73  97  75  97 /   2   6  10  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-034-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/15




000
FXUS64 KJAN 262058
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCARCE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THANKS
TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIRMASS. THE ONLY LOCATION SEEING
ANY CONVECTION THS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR SE.

ALSO OF NOTE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE DEWPOINTS WHICH HAVE MIXED
OUT INTO THE 60S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS HAS IN TURN
MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO EVEN REACH 100. FURTHER WEST
THOUGH...INDICES CONTINUE IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE AS DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE MS RIVER.

MOS AND THE MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THE DRIER
AIR OVER THE EAST AS THEY CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AGAIN TOMORROW. GFS RAW/BUFR DATA ON THE OTHER HAND ARE SHOWING
WELL MIXED OUT LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH IS CLOSER TO REALITY.

DESPITE THE OVERALL LOWER DEWPOINTS...THEY STILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE DELTA REGION TO WARRANT ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY INTO MONDAY. DID PUSH THE EASTERN EDGE WESTWARD A BIT TO
CONFORM WITH THE BETTER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE MS RIVER.

LOOKING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HIGH CENTER REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC/SUBSIDENT
FLOW OVER THE REGION. SHORTWAVES REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...BUT
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN THEM AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. SOME RELIEF DOES
LOOK POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE WEEK...HOWEVER...AS RIDGE FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE OF AN IMPACT FROM PASSING
SHORTWAVES WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
ALSO...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS WELL WITH LOW TO MID 90S
BEING MORE PREVALENT THAN THE UPPER 90S/100 OF LATE./26/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  97  73  97 /   3   4   8  17
MERIDIAN      71  97  74  96 /   3   7  11  19
VICKSBURG     73  97  74  98 /   3   6   7  13
HATTIESBURG   72  97  75  97 /   4   7   8  19
NATCHEZ       75  96  75  96 /   8  10   8  13
GREENVILLE    75  98  76  98 /   2   7   6  10
GREENWOOD     73  97  75  97 /   2   6  10  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-034-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/15



000
FXUS64 KJAN 261554
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1054 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO FORECAST AT PRESENT. MASSIVE
DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND A MUCH DRYER AIRMASS OBSERVED IN THE 12Z UA SOUNDING
WITH A PW OF 1.39. ALTHOUGH HRRR IS FORECASTING SOME LIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH BEGINNING NOW...VISIBLE
IMAGERY NOT EVEN SHOWING ANY CU DEVELOPMENT YET. CURRENT POP FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT GOING IN THE SOUTH...NOT SURE ABOUT THAT NOW WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NO LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO INITIATE./26/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. /15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT IN SOME LOCALES...IT APPEARS A MORE SUBDUED
SUNDAY IS ON TAP.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.

BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.  DESPITE THE LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 102-110
RANGE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON PEAK FROM 97 TO 100 DEGREES.  THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST...FROM
106 TO 110.

MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
96-100 RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 102 TO 108.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AGAIN.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE CONCERNED...THEY`LL BE A
TAD COOLER AS THEY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI/RED RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WESTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS GREATER INFLUENCE,
MID/UPPER 90S TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TOUCH 100 ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. HOWEVER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING NOW BUILDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A (WEAK) COLD FRONT, YES, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS
FRONT WILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF DRASTIC CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
AND THEREFORE, MORE LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PULLING AWAY, IT SHOULD STILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT, POPS
WILL BE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. /DL/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON      100  74  99  74 /   6   4   6  10
MERIDIAN      97  73  97  73 /   6   4   7   9
VICKSBURG    100  75  98  74 /   7   4   8  10
HATTIESBURG   97  73  97  74 /  15  10   8   7
NATCHEZ       97  74  96  74 /  15  12  12  11
GREENVILLE    99  75  99  76 /   5   3   6   7
GREENWOOD     98  74  98  75 /   4   2   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/15



000
FXUS64 KJAN 261554
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1054 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO FORECAST AT PRESENT. MASSIVE
DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND A MUCH DRYER AIRMASS OBSERVED IN THE 12Z UA SOUNDING
WITH A PW OF 1.39. ALTHOUGH HRRR IS FORECASTING SOME LIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH BEGINNING NOW...VISIBLE
IMAGERY NOT EVEN SHOWING ANY CU DEVELOPMENT YET. CURRENT POP FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT GOING IN THE SOUTH...NOT SURE ABOUT THAT NOW WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NO LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO INITIATE./26/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. /15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT IN SOME LOCALES...IT APPEARS A MORE SUBDUED
SUNDAY IS ON TAP.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.

BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.  DESPITE THE LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 102-110
RANGE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON PEAK FROM 97 TO 100 DEGREES.  THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST...FROM
106 TO 110.

MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
96-100 RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 102 TO 108.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AGAIN.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE CONCERNED...THEY`LL BE A
TAD COOLER AS THEY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI/RED RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WESTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS GREATER INFLUENCE,
MID/UPPER 90S TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TOUCH 100 ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. HOWEVER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING NOW BUILDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A (WEAK) COLD FRONT, YES, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS
FRONT WILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF DRASTIC CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
AND THEREFORE, MORE LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PULLING AWAY, IT SHOULD STILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT, POPS
WILL BE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. /DL/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON      100  74  99  74 /   6   4   6  10
MERIDIAN      97  73  97  73 /   6   4   7   9
VICKSBURG    100  75  98  74 /   7   4   8  10
HATTIESBURG   97  73  97  74 /  15  10   8   7
NATCHEZ       97  74  96  74 /  15  12  12  11
GREENVILLE    99  75  99  76 /   5   3   6   7
GREENWOOD     98  74  98  75 /   4   2   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/15




000
FXUS64 KJAN 261554
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1054 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO FORECAST AT PRESENT. MASSIVE
DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND A MUCH DRYER AIRMASS OBSERVED IN THE 12Z UA SOUNDING
WITH A PW OF 1.39. ALTHOUGH HRRR IS FORECASTING SOME LIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH BEGINNING NOW...VISIBLE
IMAGERY NOT EVEN SHOWING ANY CU DEVELOPMENT YET. CURRENT POP FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT GOING IN THE SOUTH...NOT SURE ABOUT THAT NOW WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NO LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO INITIATE./26/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. /15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT IN SOME LOCALES...IT APPEARS A MORE SUBDUED
SUNDAY IS ON TAP.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.

BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.  DESPITE THE LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 102-110
RANGE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON PEAK FROM 97 TO 100 DEGREES.  THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST...FROM
106 TO 110.

MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
96-100 RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 102 TO 108.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AGAIN.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE CONCERNED...THEY`LL BE A
TAD COOLER AS THEY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI/RED RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WESTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS GREATER INFLUENCE,
MID/UPPER 90S TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TOUCH 100 ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. HOWEVER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING NOW BUILDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A (WEAK) COLD FRONT, YES, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS
FRONT WILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF DRASTIC CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
AND THEREFORE, MORE LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PULLING AWAY, IT SHOULD STILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT, POPS
WILL BE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. /DL/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON      100  74  99  74 /   6   4   6  10
MERIDIAN      97  73  97  73 /   6   4   7   9
VICKSBURG    100  75  98  74 /   7   4   8  10
HATTIESBURG   97  73  97  74 /  15  10   8   7
NATCHEZ       97  74  96  74 /  15  12  12  11
GREENVILLE    99  75  99  76 /   5   3   6   7
GREENWOOD     98  74  98  75 /   4   2   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/15




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260852
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT IN SOME LOCALES...IT APPEARS A MORE SUBDUED
SUNDAY IS ON TAP.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.

BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.  DESPITE THE LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 102-110
RANGE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON PEAK FROM 97 TO 100 DEGREES.  THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST...FROM
106 TO 110.

MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
96-100 RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 102 TO 108.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AGAIN.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE CONCERNED...THEY`LL BE A
TAD COOLER AS THEY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI/RED RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WESTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS GREATER INFLUENCE,
MID/UPPER 90S TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TOUCH 100 ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. HOWEVER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING NOW BUILDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A (WEAK) COLD FRONT, YES, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS
FRONT WILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF DRASTIC CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
AND THEREFORE, MORE LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PULLING AWAY, IT SHOULD STILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT, POPS
WILL BE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN A BRIEF
BOUT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
TODAY WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON      100  74  99  74 /   6   4   6  10
MERIDIAN      97  73  97  73 /   6   4   7   9
VICKSBURG    100  75  98  74 /   7   4   8  10
HATTIESBURG   97  73  97  74 /  15  10   8   7
NATCHEZ       97  74  96  74 /  15  12  12  11
GREENVILLE    99  75  99  76 /   5   3   6   7
GREENWOOD     98  74  98  75 /   4   2   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

19/DL




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260852
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT IN SOME LOCALES...IT APPEARS A MORE SUBDUED
SUNDAY IS ON TAP.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.

BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.  DESPITE THE LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 102-110
RANGE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON PEAK FROM 97 TO 100 DEGREES.  THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST...FROM
106 TO 110.

MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
96-100 RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 102 TO 108.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AGAIN.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE CONCERNED...THEY`LL BE A
TAD COOLER AS THEY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI/RED RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WESTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS GREATER INFLUENCE,
MID/UPPER 90S TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TOUCH 100 ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. HOWEVER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING NOW BUILDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A (WEAK) COLD FRONT, YES, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS
FRONT WILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF DRASTIC CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
AND THEREFORE, MORE LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PULLING AWAY, IT SHOULD STILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT, POPS
WILL BE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN A BRIEF
BOUT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
TODAY WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON      100  74  99  74 /   6   4   6  10
MERIDIAN      97  73  97  73 /   6   4   7   9
VICKSBURG    100  75  98  74 /   7   4   8  10
HATTIESBURG   97  73  97  74 /  15  10   8   7
NATCHEZ       97  74  96  74 /  15  12  12  11
GREENVILLE    99  75  99  76 /   5   3   6   7
GREENWOOD     98  74  98  75 /   4   2   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

19/DL




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260852
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT IN SOME LOCALES...IT APPEARS A MORE SUBDUED
SUNDAY IS ON TAP.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.

BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.  DESPITE THE LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 102-110
RANGE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON PEAK FROM 97 TO 100 DEGREES.  THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST...FROM
106 TO 110.

MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
96-100 RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 102 TO 108.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AGAIN.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE CONCERNED...THEY`LL BE A
TAD COOLER AS THEY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI/RED RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WESTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS GREATER INFLUENCE,
MID/UPPER 90S TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TOUCH 100 ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. HOWEVER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING NOW BUILDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A (WEAK) COLD FRONT, YES, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS
FRONT WILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF DRASTIC CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
AND THEREFORE, MORE LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PULLING AWAY, IT SHOULD STILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT, POPS
WILL BE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN A BRIEF
BOUT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
TODAY WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON      100  74  99  74 /   6   4   6  10
MERIDIAN      97  73  97  73 /   6   4   7   9
VICKSBURG    100  75  98  74 /   7   4   8  10
HATTIESBURG   97  73  97  74 /  15  10   8   7
NATCHEZ       97  74  96  74 /  15  12  12  11
GREENVILLE    99  75  99  76 /   5   3   6   7
GREENWOOD     98  74  98  75 /   4   2   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

19/DL




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260852
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT IN SOME LOCALES...IT APPEARS A MORE SUBDUED
SUNDAY IS ON TAP.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.

BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.  DESPITE THE LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 102-110
RANGE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON PEAK FROM 97 TO 100 DEGREES.  THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST...FROM
106 TO 110.

MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
96-100 RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 102 TO 108.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AGAIN.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE CONCERNED...THEY`LL BE A
TAD COOLER AS THEY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI/RED RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WESTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS GREATER INFLUENCE,
MID/UPPER 90S TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TOUCH 100 ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. HOWEVER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING NOW BUILDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A (WEAK) COLD FRONT, YES, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS
FRONT WILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF DRASTIC CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
AND THEREFORE, MORE LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PULLING AWAY, IT SHOULD STILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT, POPS
WILL BE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN A BRIEF
BOUT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
TODAY WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON      100  74  99  74 /   6   4   6  10
MERIDIAN      97  73  97  73 /   6   4   7   9
VICKSBURG    100  75  98  74 /   7   4   8  10
HATTIESBURG   97  73  97  74 /  15  10   8   7
NATCHEZ       97  74  96  74 /  15  12  12  11
GREENVILLE    99  75  99  76 /   5   3   6   7
GREENWOOD     98  74  98  75 /   4   2   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

19/DL




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260852
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT IN SOME LOCALES...IT APPEARS A MORE SUBDUED
SUNDAY IS ON TAP.  MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.

BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.  DESPITE THE LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 102-110
RANGE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON PEAK FROM 97 TO 100 DEGREES.  THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST...FROM
106 TO 110.

MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST ON MONDAY.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
96-100 RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 102 TO 108.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AGAIN.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE CONCERNED...THEY`LL BE A
TAD COOLER AS THEY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI/RED RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WESTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS GREATER INFLUENCE,
MID/UPPER 90S TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TOUCH 100 ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. HOWEVER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING NOW BUILDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A (WEAK) COLD FRONT, YES, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS
FRONT WILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF DRASTIC CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
AND THEREFORE, MORE LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PULLING AWAY, IT SHOULD STILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT, POPS
WILL BE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN A BRIEF
BOUT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
TODAY WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON      100  74  99  74 /   6   4   6  10
MERIDIAN      97  73  97  73 /   6   4   7   9
VICKSBURG    100  75  98  74 /   7   4   8  10
HATTIESBURG   97  73  97  74 /  15  10   8   7
NATCHEZ       97  74  96  74 /  15  12  12  11
GREENVILLE    99  75  99  76 /   5   3   6   7
GREENWOOD     98  74  98  75 /   4   2   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

19/DL




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260252 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
952 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE LAST OF TODAY`S THUNDERSTORMS WERE DISSIPATING OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST MOST ZONES AT 930PM AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WL HOLD MENTION OF POPS IN OUR SW
AN HOUR OR TWO BUT POPS WERE REMOVED ELSEWHERE. THE DECENT COVERAGE
OF STORMS OVER OUR WEST HAS RAINED COOLED MANY SITES DOWN TO FORECAST
MINS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
LOWERED FORECAST MORNING LOWS MAINLY WEST. THERE WAS STILL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER OUR WEST BUT STRONG
INSOLATION SHOULD RESUME SUNDAY AND COMBINE WITH OUR MOIST AIR MASS
FOR HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE WEST. HAVE KEPT THE INHERITED HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST TSTMS OF THE DAY WERE DISSIPATING OVER SW MS AT
230Z AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES AT 02Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SW OF THE TAF
SITES SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVERGENT AXIS FROM GLH-JAN-HBG HAS BEEN THE IMPETUS
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FILL IN
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AXIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
MAINLY DUE TO OUTFLOW PROPAGATION IN THIS AREA.

FINALLY BROKE THE CENTURY MARK TODAY IN JACKSON AS INCREASED MIXING
ALLOWED TEMPS TO SHOOT UP RAPIDLY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PROLONGED HEATING IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS
ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT. THE EXCEPTION IS RIGHT AT THE
SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL MANAGING TO RISE BACK INTO THE MID
70S AT NIGHT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE
MIXING AS SOME ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S WHILE OTHERS
ARE STILL HOLDING ONTO THE MID 70S. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LOWERING AS WELL AS BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYING CONTINUES. AS ALSO HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...INCREASED DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR 10 TO 15
KNOTS OF WIND TO MIX DOWN. AS THE BUFR DATA IS INDICATING DEEP
MIXING TO CONTINUE...SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER ARE A LITTLE LESS
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY AROUND
10 KNOTS.

THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON THE HEAT INDICES
NOW THAT ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS ARE SO WARM. IN FACT...FROM A HEAT
INDEX PERSPECTIVE IT IS PRETTY MUCH TRANSPARENT AS VALUES HAVE ONCE
AGAIN RANGED FROM 105 TO 110. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO EXTEND AGAIN THIS TIME TOMORROW. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  99  77  98 /  10   8   5   4
MERIDIAN      74  97  75  96 /   6   9   5   6
VICKSBURG     76  99  77  98 /  12  11   6   4
HATTIESBURG   75  98  76  97 /  12  16  10   9
NATCHEZ       76  97  77  96 /  65  17  10  10
GREENVILLE    76  99  78  99 /   9  11   4   5
GREENWOOD     76  98  77  97 /   5   7   3   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260252 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
952 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE LAST OF TODAY`S THUNDERSTORMS WERE DISSIPATING OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST MOST ZONES AT 930PM AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WL HOLD MENTION OF POPS IN OUR SW
AN HOUR OR TWO BUT POPS WERE REMOVED ELSEWHERE. THE DECENT COVERAGE
OF STORMS OVER OUR WEST HAS RAINED COOLED MANY SITES DOWN TO FORECAST
MINS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
LOWERED FORECAST MORNING LOWS MAINLY WEST. THERE WAS STILL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER OUR WEST BUT STRONG
INSOLATION SHOULD RESUME SUNDAY AND COMBINE WITH OUR MOIST AIR MASS
FOR HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE WEST. HAVE KEPT THE INHERITED HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE LAST TSTMS OF THE DAY WERE DISSIPATING OVER SW MS AT
230Z AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES AT 02Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SW OF THE TAF
SITES SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVERGENT AXIS FROM GLH-JAN-HBG HAS BEEN THE IMPETUS
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FILL IN
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AXIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
MAINLY DUE TO OUTFLOW PROPAGATION IN THIS AREA.

FINALLY BROKE THE CENTURY MARK TODAY IN JACKSON AS INCREASED MIXING
ALLOWED TEMPS TO SHOOT UP RAPIDLY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PROLONGED HEATING IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS
ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY OUT. THE EXCEPTION IS RIGHT AT THE
SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL MANAGING TO RISE BACK INTO THE MID
70S AT NIGHT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE
MIXING AS SOME ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S WHILE OTHERS
ARE STILL HOLDING ONTO THE MID 70S. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LOWERING AS WELL AS BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYING CONTINUES. AS ALSO HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...INCREASED DEPTH OF MIXED LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR 10 TO 15
KNOTS OF WIND TO MIX DOWN. AS THE BUFR DATA IS INDICATING DEEP
MIXING TO CONTINUE...SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER ARE A LITTLE LESS
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY AROUND
10 KNOTS.

THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE NOT HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON THE HEAT INDICES
NOW THAT ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS ARE SO WARM. IN FACT...FROM A HEAT
INDEX PERSPECTIVE IT IS PRETTY MUCH TRANSPARENT AS VALUES HAVE ONCE
AGAIN RANGED FROM 105 TO 110. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO EXTEND AGAIN THIS TIME TOMORROW. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  99  77  98 /  10   8   5   4
MERIDIAN      74  97  75  96 /   6   9   5   6
VICKSBURG     76  99  77  98 /  12  11   6   4
HATTIESBURG   75  98  76  97 /  12  16  10   9
NATCHEZ       76  97  77  96 /  65  17  10  10
GREENVILLE    76  99  78  99 /   9  11   4   5
GREENWOOD     76  98  77  97 /   5   7   3   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/26




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