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000
FXUS64 KJAN 241447 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. GOING TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT THINKING OF
STORMS FORMING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR...THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A 2 INCH PW
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY ALONG WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE BRINGING SOME LOWER VIS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDS TO KGWO/KGTR/KGLH/KTVR. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONDS TO IMPROVE
AFTER 15-16Z AT MOST TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MVFR CONDS PSBL BETWEEN 18-22Z AT MOST TAF SITES DUE TO TSRA
DIRECT IMPACT. WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NW AROUND 5-10
KT. EXPECT MIX OF FOG/LOWER STRATUS AND MVFR CONDS PSBL AFTER 25/08Z
AT KHBG/KMEI...WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER VIS/IFR CONDS PSBL BETWEEN
25/08-12Z AT KGWO/KGTR. /DC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN BUBBLING UP OFF AND ON ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING`S
CONVECTION. FACTOR INTO THE EQUATION DAYTIME HEATING...AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. ALTHOUGH THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ALL ACTIVITY
TODAY.

THAT SAID...GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...FOR THE REASONS STATED ABOVE...INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE
FOR TODAY SIMPLY MADE MORE SENSE THAN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.  AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS...POPS
FOR TODAY NOW RESEMBLE THOSE OF THE ECMWF THAN THOSE OF THE GFS AND
NAM.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  WHILE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT...IT`LL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOW SLOWING FRONT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  BEHIND THE FRONT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY.  WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NOW OVER THE REGION...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS.  WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FALL DOWN AROUND 70. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS BOTH DAYS
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY
WHICH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THUS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERTURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  93  71 /  24  13   9   6
MERIDIAN      91  68  93  70 /  27  13  13   6
VICKSBURG     91  64  93  68 /  20  12   6   6
HATTIESBURG   92  71  94  73 /  34  19  27   7
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  72 /  26  19  14   5
GREENVILLE    91  65  92  70 /  15   4   3   6
GREENWOOD     91  63  92  67 /  16   5   3   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 241447 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. GOING TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT THINKING OF
STORMS FORMING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR...THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A 2 INCH PW
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY ALONG WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE BRINGING SOME LOWER VIS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDS TO KGWO/KGTR/KGLH/KTVR. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONDS TO IMPROVE
AFTER 15-16Z AT MOST TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MVFR CONDS PSBL BETWEEN 18-22Z AT MOST TAF SITES DUE TO TSRA
DIRECT IMPACT. WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NW AROUND 5-10
KT. EXPECT MIX OF FOG/LOWER STRATUS AND MVFR CONDS PSBL AFTER 25/08Z
AT KHBG/KMEI...WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER VIS/IFR CONDS PSBL BETWEEN
25/08-12Z AT KGWO/KGTR. /DC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN BUBBLING UP OFF AND ON ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING`S
CONVECTION. FACTOR INTO THE EQUATION DAYTIME HEATING...AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. ALTHOUGH THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ALL ACTIVITY
TODAY.

THAT SAID...GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...FOR THE REASONS STATED ABOVE...INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE
FOR TODAY SIMPLY MADE MORE SENSE THAN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.  AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS...POPS
FOR TODAY NOW RESEMBLE THOSE OF THE ECMWF THAN THOSE OF THE GFS AND
NAM.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  WHILE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT...IT`LL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOW SLOWING FRONT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  BEHIND THE FRONT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY.  WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NOW OVER THE REGION...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS.  WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FALL DOWN AROUND 70. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS BOTH DAYS
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY
WHICH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THUS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERTURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  93  71 /  24  13   9   6
MERIDIAN      91  68  93  70 /  27  13  13   6
VICKSBURG     91  64  93  68 /  20  12   6   6
HATTIESBURG   92  71  94  73 /  34  19  27   7
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  72 /  26  19  14   5
GREENVILLE    91  65  92  70 /  15   4   3   6
GREENWOOD     91  63  92  67 /  16   5   3   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 240843
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN BUBBLING UP OFF AND ON ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING`S
CONVECTION. FACTOR INTO THE EQUATION DAYTIME HEATING...AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. ALTHOUGH THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ALL ACTIVITY
TODAY.

THAT SAID...GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...FOR THE REASONS STATED ABOVE...INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE
FOR TODAY SIMPLY MADE MORE SENSE THAN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.  AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS...POPS
FOR TODAY NOW RESEMBLE THOSE OF THE ECMWF THAN THOSE OF THE GFS AND
NAM.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  WHILE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT...IT`LL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOW SLOWING FRONT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  BEHIND THE FRONT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY.  WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NOW OVER THE REGION...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS.  WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FALL DOWN AROUND 70. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS BOTH DAYS
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY
WHICH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THUS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERTURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT STATUSES RANGING FROM VFR/IFR ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING THANKS TO VARY CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND
VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG.  BOTH SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR STATUS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT`LL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION.  A BRIEF REDUCTION OF BOTH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR STATUS IS EXPECTED IF
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN A SITE`S RESPECTED AERODROME. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...AND BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  93  71 /  24  13   9   6
MERIDIAN      91  68  93  70 /  27  13  13   6
VICKSBURG     91  64  93  68 /  20  12   6   6
HATTIESBURG   92  71  94  73 /  34  19  27   7
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  72 /  26  19  14   5
GREENVILLE    91  65  92  70 /  15   4   3   6
GREENWOOD     91  63  92  67 /  16   5   3   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/SW





000
FXUS64 KJAN 240843
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN BUBBLING UP OFF AND ON ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING`S
CONVECTION. FACTOR INTO THE EQUATION DAYTIME HEATING...AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. ALTHOUGH THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ALL ACTIVITY
TODAY.

THAT SAID...GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...FOR THE REASONS STATED ABOVE...INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE
FOR TODAY SIMPLY MADE MORE SENSE THAN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.  AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS...POPS
FOR TODAY NOW RESEMBLE THOSE OF THE ECMWF THAN THOSE OF THE GFS AND
NAM.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  WHILE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT...IT`LL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOW SLOWING FRONT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  BEHIND THE FRONT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY.  WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NOW OVER THE REGION...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS.  WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FALL DOWN AROUND 70. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS BOTH DAYS
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY
WHICH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THUS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERTURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT STATUSES RANGING FROM VFR/IFR ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING THANKS TO VARY CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND
VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG.  BOTH SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR STATUS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT`LL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION.  A BRIEF REDUCTION OF BOTH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR STATUS IS EXPECTED IF
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN A SITE`S RESPECTED AERODROME. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...AND BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  93  71 /  24  13   9   6
MERIDIAN      91  68  93  70 /  27  13  13   6
VICKSBURG     91  64  93  68 /  20  12   6   6
HATTIESBURG   92  71  94  73 /  34  19  27   7
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  72 /  26  19  14   5
GREENVILLE    91  65  92  70 /  15   4   3   6
GREENWOOD     91  63  92  67 /  16   5   3   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/SW





000
FXUS64 KJAN 240843
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN BUBBLING UP OFF AND ON ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING`S
CONVECTION. FACTOR INTO THE EQUATION DAYTIME HEATING...AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. ALTHOUGH THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ALL ACTIVITY
TODAY.

THAT SAID...GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...FOR THE REASONS STATED ABOVE...INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE
FOR TODAY SIMPLY MADE MORE SENSE THAN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.  AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS...POPS
FOR TODAY NOW RESEMBLE THOSE OF THE ECMWF THAN THOSE OF THE GFS AND
NAM.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  WHILE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT...IT`LL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOW SLOWING FRONT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  BEHIND THE FRONT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY.  WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NOW OVER THE REGION...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS.  WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FALL DOWN AROUND 70. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS BOTH DAYS
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY
WHICH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THUS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERTURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT STATUSES RANGING FROM VFR/IFR ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING THANKS TO VARY CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND
VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG.  BOTH SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR STATUS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT`LL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION.  A BRIEF REDUCTION OF BOTH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR STATUS IS EXPECTED IF
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN A SITE`S RESPECTED AERODROME. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...AND BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  93  71 /  24  13   9   6
MERIDIAN      91  68  93  70 /  27  13  13   6
VICKSBURG     91  64  93  68 /  20  12   6   6
HATTIESBURG   92  71  94  73 /  34  19  27   7
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  72 /  26  19  14   5
GREENVILLE    91  65  92  70 /  15   4   3   6
GREENWOOD     91  63  92  67 /  16   5   3   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/SW





000
FXUS64 KJAN 240843
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN BUBBLING UP OFF AND ON ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING`S
CONVECTION. FACTOR INTO THE EQUATION DAYTIME HEATING...AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. ALTHOUGH THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ALL ACTIVITY
TODAY.

THAT SAID...GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...FOR THE REASONS STATED ABOVE...INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE
FOR TODAY SIMPLY MADE MORE SENSE THAN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.  AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS...POPS
FOR TODAY NOW RESEMBLE THOSE OF THE ECMWF THAN THOSE OF THE GFS AND
NAM.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  WHILE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT...IT`LL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOW SLOWING FRONT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  BEHIND THE FRONT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY.  WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NOW OVER THE REGION...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS.  WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FALL DOWN AROUND 70. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS BOTH DAYS
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY
WHICH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THUS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERTURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT STATUSES RANGING FROM VFR/IFR ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING THANKS TO VARY CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND
VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG.  BOTH SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR STATUS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT`LL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION.  A BRIEF REDUCTION OF BOTH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR STATUS IS EXPECTED IF
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN A SITE`S RESPECTED AERODROME. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...AND BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  93  71 /  24  13   9   6
MERIDIAN      91  68  93  70 /  27  13  13   6
VICKSBURG     91  64  93  68 /  20  12   6   6
HATTIESBURG   92  71  94  73 /  34  19  27   7
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  72 /  26  19  14   5
GREENVILLE    91  65  92  70 /  15   4   3   6
GREENWOOD     91  63  92  67 /  16   5   3   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/SW





000
FXUS64 KJAN 240213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
914 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR MANY AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...BEEN AN INTERESTING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
CONVECTION WAITING TO RAMP UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ABNORMALLY
LATE IN THE DAY. OH YEA...WE ALSO CONFIRMED A RARE WATERSPOUT OVER
THE ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR.

EDGE OF ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE HELPING BOOST ACTIVITY WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR A LARGE AND INTENSE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT AROUND HERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS FOCUSED ALTHOUGH SLOW TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE SETTING OF THE SUN. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK BUT
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA
OCCURRING PRESENTLY...AS H850 FLOW IMPINGES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH 00Z JAN SOUNDING REVEALED INSTABILITY NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO FUEL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANTICIPATING THE DIURNAL WANE IN
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MOSTLY TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING. UNTIL MIDNIGHT THE SLOW MOVING AND
BACKBUILDING NATURE OF SOME STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
BECAUSE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. TOWARD SUNRISE ENOUGH
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TO PRESENT A POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
AREAS THAT GOT OR WILL GET A DOWNPOUR. THIS FOG SHOULD NOT BE WORTH
ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY AND OF THE KIND THAT DEPARTS BEFORE 9 AM. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS MUCH CONVECTION POPPED UP TODAY AS ANTICIPATED DESPITE PWS
BEING NEAR 2 INCHES AND ABOVE 2000 J/KG CAPE CALCULATED FROM THIS
MORNING`S SOUNDING. SCATTERED CU COVER THE CWA CURRENTLY WITH JUST A
FEW RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE AREA. WHATEVER IS LEFT AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT WILL DIE QUICKLY.

WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS/FRONT MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD
ALSO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD IGNITE MORE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW EVENING. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH ONLY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. STUCK WITH MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED JUST A TAD SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN REALLY STRUGGLING TO
REACH TEMPS IN THE 90S. MOS LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
13Z. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING
VERY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN
FELL HEAVY LATE TODAY (SUCH AS GWO). TOMORROW WINDS WILL STILL BE
LIGHT BUT PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDAY
TO AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS AFTER TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY VFR AWAY FROM SAID THUNDERSTORMS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  70  92  70 /  30  27  27  16
MERIDIAN      90  68  91  69 /  28  25  31  20
VICKSBURG     89  68  92  68 /  26  34  19  14
HATTIESBURG   89  69  92  72 /  22  14  31  21
NATCHEZ       88  69  91  70 /  27  28  21  16
GREENVILLE    92  70  91  66 /  23  31  15   8
GREENWOOD     89  68  89  64 /  29  33  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/10/19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 240213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
914 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR MANY AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...BEEN AN INTERESTING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
CONVECTION WAITING TO RAMP UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ABNORMALLY
LATE IN THE DAY. OH YEA...WE ALSO CONFIRMED A RARE WATERSPOUT OVER
THE ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR.

EDGE OF ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE HELPING BOOST ACTIVITY WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR A LARGE AND INTENSE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT AROUND HERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS FOCUSED ALTHOUGH SLOW TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE SETTING OF THE SUN. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK BUT
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA
OCCURRING PRESENTLY...AS H850 FLOW IMPINGES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH 00Z JAN SOUNDING REVEALED INSTABILITY NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO FUEL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANTICIPATING THE DIURNAL WANE IN
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MOSTLY TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING. UNTIL MIDNIGHT THE SLOW MOVING AND
BACKBUILDING NATURE OF SOME STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
BECAUSE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. TOWARD SUNRISE ENOUGH
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TO PRESENT A POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
AREAS THAT GOT OR WILL GET A DOWNPOUR. THIS FOG SHOULD NOT BE WORTH
ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY AND OF THE KIND THAT DEPARTS BEFORE 9 AM. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS MUCH CONVECTION POPPED UP TODAY AS ANTICIPATED DESPITE PWS
BEING NEAR 2 INCHES AND ABOVE 2000 J/KG CAPE CALCULATED FROM THIS
MORNING`S SOUNDING. SCATTERED CU COVER THE CWA CURRENTLY WITH JUST A
FEW RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE AREA. WHATEVER IS LEFT AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT WILL DIE QUICKLY.

WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS/FRONT MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD
ALSO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD IGNITE MORE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW EVENING. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH ONLY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. STUCK WITH MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED JUST A TAD SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN REALLY STRUGGLING TO
REACH TEMPS IN THE 90S. MOS LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
13Z. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING
VERY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN
FELL HEAVY LATE TODAY (SUCH AS GWO). TOMORROW WINDS WILL STILL BE
LIGHT BUT PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDAY
TO AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS AFTER TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY VFR AWAY FROM SAID THUNDERSTORMS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  70  92  70 /  30  27  27  16
MERIDIAN      90  68  91  69 /  28  25  31  20
VICKSBURG     89  68  92  68 /  26  34  19  14
HATTIESBURG   89  69  92  72 /  22  14  31  21
NATCHEZ       88  69  91  70 /  27  28  21  16
GREENVILLE    92  70  91  66 /  23  31  15   8
GREENWOOD     89  68  89  64 /  29  33  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/10/19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 240213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
914 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR MANY AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...BEEN AN INTERESTING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
CONVECTION WAITING TO RAMP UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ABNORMALLY
LATE IN THE DAY. OH YEA...WE ALSO CONFIRMED A RARE WATERSPOUT OVER
THE ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR.

EDGE OF ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE HELPING BOOST ACTIVITY WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR A LARGE AND INTENSE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT AROUND HERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS FOCUSED ALTHOUGH SLOW TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE SETTING OF THE SUN. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK BUT
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA
OCCURRING PRESENTLY...AS H850 FLOW IMPINGES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH 00Z JAN SOUNDING REVEALED INSTABILITY NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO FUEL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANTICIPATING THE DIURNAL WANE IN
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MOSTLY TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING. UNTIL MIDNIGHT THE SLOW MOVING AND
BACKBUILDING NATURE OF SOME STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
BECAUSE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. TOWARD SUNRISE ENOUGH
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TO PRESENT A POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
AREAS THAT GOT OR WILL GET A DOWNPOUR. THIS FOG SHOULD NOT BE WORTH
ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY AND OF THE KIND THAT DEPARTS BEFORE 9 AM. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS MUCH CONVECTION POPPED UP TODAY AS ANTICIPATED DESPITE PWS
BEING NEAR 2 INCHES AND ABOVE 2000 J/KG CAPE CALCULATED FROM THIS
MORNING`S SOUNDING. SCATTERED CU COVER THE CWA CURRENTLY WITH JUST A
FEW RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE AREA. WHATEVER IS LEFT AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT WILL DIE QUICKLY.

WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS/FRONT MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD
ALSO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD IGNITE MORE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW EVENING. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH ONLY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. STUCK WITH MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED JUST A TAD SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN REALLY STRUGGLING TO
REACH TEMPS IN THE 90S. MOS LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
13Z. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING
VERY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN
FELL HEAVY LATE TODAY (SUCH AS GWO). TOMORROW WINDS WILL STILL BE
LIGHT BUT PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDAY
TO AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS AFTER TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY VFR AWAY FROM SAID THUNDERSTORMS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  70  92  70 /  30  27  27  16
MERIDIAN      90  68  91  69 /  28  25  31  20
VICKSBURG     89  68  92  68 /  26  34  19  14
HATTIESBURG   89  69  92  72 /  22  14  31  21
NATCHEZ       88  69  91  70 /  27  28  21  16
GREENVILLE    92  70  91  66 /  23  31  15   8
GREENWOOD     89  68  89  64 /  29  33  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/10/19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 240213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
914 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR MANY AREAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...BEEN AN INTERESTING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
CONVECTION WAITING TO RAMP UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ABNORMALLY
LATE IN THE DAY. OH YEA...WE ALSO CONFIRMED A RARE WATERSPOUT OVER
THE ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR.

EDGE OF ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE HELPING BOOST ACTIVITY WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR A LARGE AND INTENSE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX...BUT AROUND HERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS FOCUSED ALTHOUGH SLOW TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE SETTING OF THE SUN. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK BUT
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA
OCCURRING PRESENTLY...AS H850 FLOW IMPINGES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH 00Z JAN SOUNDING REVEALED INSTABILITY NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO FUEL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANTICIPATING THE DIURNAL WANE IN
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MOSTLY TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING. UNTIL MIDNIGHT THE SLOW MOVING AND
BACKBUILDING NATURE OF SOME STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
BECAUSE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. TOWARD SUNRISE ENOUGH
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TO PRESENT A POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
AREAS THAT GOT OR WILL GET A DOWNPOUR. THIS FOG SHOULD NOT BE WORTH
ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY AND OF THE KIND THAT DEPARTS BEFORE 9 AM. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS MUCH CONVECTION POPPED UP TODAY AS ANTICIPATED DESPITE PWS
BEING NEAR 2 INCHES AND ABOVE 2000 J/KG CAPE CALCULATED FROM THIS
MORNING`S SOUNDING. SCATTERED CU COVER THE CWA CURRENTLY WITH JUST A
FEW RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE AREA. WHATEVER IS LEFT AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT WILL DIE QUICKLY.

WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS/FRONT MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD
ALSO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD IGNITE MORE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW EVENING. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH ONLY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. STUCK WITH MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED JUST A TAD SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN REALLY STRUGGLING TO
REACH TEMPS IN THE 90S. MOS LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
13Z. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING
VERY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN
FELL HEAVY LATE TODAY (SUCH AS GWO). TOMORROW WINDS WILL STILL BE
LIGHT BUT PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDAY
TO AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS AFTER TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY VFR AWAY FROM SAID THUNDERSTORMS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  70  92  70 /  30  27  27  16
MERIDIAN      90  68  91  69 /  28  25  31  20
VICKSBURG     89  68  92  68 /  26  34  19  14
HATTIESBURG   89  69  92  72 /  22  14  31  21
NATCHEZ       88  69  91  70 /  27  28  21  16
GREENVILLE    92  70  91  66 /  23  31  15   8
GREENWOOD     89  68  89  64 /  29  33  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/10/19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 232019
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS MUCH CONVECTION POPPED UP TODAY AS ANTICIPATED DESPITE PWS
BEING NEAR 2 INCHES AND ABOVE 2000 J/KG CAPE CALCULATED FROM THIS
MORNING`S SOUNDING. SCATTERED CU COVER THE CWA CURRENTLY WITH JUST A
FEW RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE AREA. WHATEVER IS LEFT AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT WILL DIE QUICKLY.

WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS/FRONT MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD
ALSO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD IGNITE MORE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW EVENING. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH ONLY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. STUCK WITH MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED JUST A TAD SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN REALLY STRUGGLING TO
REACH TEMPS IN THE 90S. MOS LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
13Z. /10/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS SURPRISINGLY SOMEWHAT MORE SPARSE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...WHAT IS OUT THERE WILL LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR VISIBILITIES LOOK PROBABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT MEI AND HBG WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED LATELY. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  92  70  93 /   8  27  16   9
MERIDIAN      68  91  69  93 /  11  31  20  11
VICKSBURG     68  92  68  91 /   5  19  14   8
HATTIESBURG   69  92  72  94 /  13  31  21  22
NATCHEZ       69  91  70  91 /  10  21  16  13
GREENVILLE    72  91  66  92 /   7  15   8   6
GREENWOOD     70  89  64  93 /   7  23   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/19/26/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 232019
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS MUCH CONVECTION POPPED UP TODAY AS ANTICIPATED DESPITE PWS
BEING NEAR 2 INCHES AND ABOVE 2000 J/KG CAPE CALCULATED FROM THIS
MORNING`S SOUNDING. SCATTERED CU COVER THE CWA CURRENTLY WITH JUST A
FEW RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE AREA. WHATEVER IS LEFT AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT WILL DIE QUICKLY.

WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS/FRONT MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD
ALSO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD IGNITE MORE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW EVENING. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH ONLY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. STUCK WITH MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED JUST A TAD SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN REALLY STRUGGLING TO
REACH TEMPS IN THE 90S. MOS LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
13Z. /10/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS SURPRISINGLY SOMEWHAT MORE SPARSE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...WHAT IS OUT THERE WILL LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR VISIBILITIES LOOK PROBABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT MEI AND HBG WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED LATELY. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  92  70  93 /   8  27  16   9
MERIDIAN      68  91  69  93 /  11  31  20  11
VICKSBURG     68  92  68  91 /   5  19  14   8
HATTIESBURG   69  92  72  94 /  13  31  21  22
NATCHEZ       69  91  70  91 /  10  21  16  13
GREENVILLE    72  91  66  92 /   7  15   8   6
GREENWOOD     70  89  64  93 /   7  23   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/19/26/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 231434 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
934 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS...IT APPEARS THAT THE DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT THE STORMS WILL EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE...POPS WERE RAISED ALONG AND WEST OF
I-55. OVERALL THE FORECAST GRIDS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND NOTHING ELSE
NEEDS TO BE CHANGED AT THIS TIME. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER HBG...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING AS MIXING INCREASES FROM CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THAT AREA FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON...INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY EASILY AND BRIEFLY
DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OVER MEI...HBG... HKS AND JAN.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE WERE A
FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR FROM LAST NIGHT...EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS RAIN IN THE
EAST FOR THE MOST PART...SO EXPANDED THE AREA EARLY A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST....GENERALLY TO CAPTURE THE I-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE 18Z. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL PW VALUES WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES
AGAIN AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP AROUND 850. MAY SEE A FEW MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY...SO LEFT THE HWO CLEAR. BEEN GENERALLY GOING WITH MOS
GUIDANCE...KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MISS THE AREA...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH STORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW ALSO.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  71  91  68 /  37  19  20   9
MERIDIAN      91  70  91  68 /  33  20  26   9
VICKSBURG     92  69  92  64 /  30  15  16   8
HATTIESBURG   91  70  92  70 /  39  19  27  12
NATCHEZ       90  70  92  70 /  36  17  17   7
GREENVILLE    92  72  90  65 /  20  15  11   6
GREENWOOD     92  71  89  64 /  25  17  15   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 231434 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
934 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS...IT APPEARS THAT THE DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT THE STORMS WILL EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE...POPS WERE RAISED ALONG AND WEST OF
I-55. OVERALL THE FORECAST GRIDS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND NOTHING ELSE
NEEDS TO BE CHANGED AT THIS TIME. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER HBG...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING AS MIXING INCREASES FROM CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THAT AREA FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON...INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY EASILY AND BRIEFLY
DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OVER MEI...HBG... HKS AND JAN.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE WERE A
FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR FROM LAST NIGHT...EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS RAIN IN THE
EAST FOR THE MOST PART...SO EXPANDED THE AREA EARLY A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST....GENERALLY TO CAPTURE THE I-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE 18Z. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL PW VALUES WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES
AGAIN AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP AROUND 850. MAY SEE A FEW MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY...SO LEFT THE HWO CLEAR. BEEN GENERALLY GOING WITH MOS
GUIDANCE...KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MISS THE AREA...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH STORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW ALSO.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  71  91  68 /  37  19  20   9
MERIDIAN      91  70  91  68 /  33  20  26   9
VICKSBURG     92  69  92  64 /  30  15  16   8
HATTIESBURG   91  70  92  70 /  39  19  27  12
NATCHEZ       90  70  92  70 /  36  17  17   7
GREENVILLE    92  72  90  65 /  20  15  11   6
GREENWOOD     92  71  89  64 /  25  17  15   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 231019
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE WERE A
FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR FROM LAST NIGHT...EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS RAIN IN THE
EAST FOR THE MOST PART...SO EXPANDED THE AREA EARLY A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST....GENERALLY TO CAPTURE THE I-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE 18Z. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL PW VALUES WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES
AGAIN AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP AROUND 850. MAY SEE A FEW MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY...SO LEFT THE HWO CLEAR. BEEN GENERALLY GOING WITH MOS
GUIDANCE...KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MISS THE AREA...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH STORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW ALSO.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/



&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z. SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
NEAR JAN/HKS. WILL CONTINUE VICINITY SHOWERS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
GWO/GLH THROUGH 18Z AND CHANGE TO VCTS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE BACK AGAIN
TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN ALSO. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  71  91  68 /  23  19  20   9
MERIDIAN      91  70  91  68 /  27  20  26   9
VICKSBURG     92  69  92  64 /  19  15  16   8
HATTIESBURG   91  70  92  70 /  44  19  27  12
NATCHEZ       90  70  92  70 /  34  17  17   7
GREENVILLE    93  72  90  65 /  16  15  11   6
GREENWOOD     93  71  89  64 /  19  17  15   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 231019
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE WERE A
FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR FROM LAST NIGHT...EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS RAIN IN THE
EAST FOR THE MOST PART...SO EXPANDED THE AREA EARLY A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST....GENERALLY TO CAPTURE THE I-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE 18Z. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL PW VALUES WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES
AGAIN AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP AROUND 850. MAY SEE A FEW MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY...SO LEFT THE HWO CLEAR. BEEN GENERALLY GOING WITH MOS
GUIDANCE...KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MISS THE AREA...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH STORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW ALSO.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/



&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z. SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
NEAR JAN/HKS. WILL CONTINUE VICINITY SHOWERS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
GWO/GLH THROUGH 18Z AND CHANGE TO VCTS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE BACK AGAIN
TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN ALSO. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  71  91  68 /  23  19  20   9
MERIDIAN      91  70  91  68 /  27  20  26   9
VICKSBURG     92  69  92  64 /  19  15  16   8
HATTIESBURG   91  70  92  70 /  44  19  27  12
NATCHEZ       90  70  92  70 /  34  17  17   7
GREENVILLE    93  72  90  65 /  16  15  11   6
GREENWOOD     93  71  89  64 /  19  17  15   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 231019
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE WERE A
FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR FROM LAST NIGHT...EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS RAIN IN THE
EAST FOR THE MOST PART...SO EXPANDED THE AREA EARLY A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST....GENERALLY TO CAPTURE THE I-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE 18Z. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL PW VALUES WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES
AGAIN AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP AROUND 850. MAY SEE A FEW MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY...SO LEFT THE HWO CLEAR. BEEN GENERALLY GOING WITH MOS
GUIDANCE...KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MISS THE AREA...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH STORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW ALSO.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/



&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z. SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
NEAR JAN/HKS. WILL CONTINUE VICINITY SHOWERS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
GWO/GLH THROUGH 18Z AND CHANGE TO VCTS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE BACK AGAIN
TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN ALSO. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  71  91  68 /  23  19  20   9
MERIDIAN      91  70  91  68 /  27  20  26   9
VICKSBURG     92  69  92  64 /  19  15  16   8
HATTIESBURG   91  70  92  70 /  44  19  27  12
NATCHEZ       90  70  92  70 /  34  17  17   7
GREENVILLE    93  72  90  65 /  16  15  11   6
GREENWOOD     93  71  89  64 /  19  17  15   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 231019
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE WERE A
FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR FROM LAST NIGHT...EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS RAIN IN THE
EAST FOR THE MOST PART...SO EXPANDED THE AREA EARLY A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST....GENERALLY TO CAPTURE THE I-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE 18Z. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL PW VALUES WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES
AGAIN AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP AROUND 850. MAY SEE A FEW MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY...SO LEFT THE HWO CLEAR. BEEN GENERALLY GOING WITH MOS
GUIDANCE...KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MISS THE AREA...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH STORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW ALSO.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/



&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z. SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
NEAR JAN/HKS. WILL CONTINUE VICINITY SHOWERS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
GWO/GLH THROUGH 18Z AND CHANGE TO VCTS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE BACK AGAIN
TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN ALSO. MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  71  91  68 /  23  19  20   9
MERIDIAN      91  70  91  68 /  27  20  26   9
VICKSBURG     92  69  92  64 /  19  15  16   8
HATTIESBURG   91  70  92  70 /  44  19  27  12
NATCHEZ       90  70  92  70 /  34  17  17   7
GREENVILLE    93  72  90  65 /  16  15  11   6
GREENWOOD     93  71  89  64 /  19  17  15   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 230128 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER...
CONVECTION IS HANGING ON WELL INTO THIS EVENING. FORECAST POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY THE 4Z-5Z TIME FRAME. ALSO UPDATED HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR
OVER MUCH OF SE MISSISSIPPI. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
STATUS IF SHOWERS IS OBSERVED WITHIN EACH SITES RESPECTED TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AS
CONVECTION DIMINISHES. THEREAFTER...MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EAST AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL AROUND 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN TAF SITES./17/

&&

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETROGRADING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE BROKEN OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD DRIFTING LOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING IN
THIS MOIST AIR MASS DESTABILIZES OUR ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE AID OF
THE THE UPPER LOW STILL RESIDING OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION...
ALTHOUGH A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN ON TUESDAY.  JUST AS WE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY... SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL
HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MEANDERING ABOUT...I DID ADJUST
HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS AS THEY AGAIN PEAK
AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT...OR ANY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION THAT`S ONGOING NEAR IT...COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT MAY IMPEDE UPON MY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES
TOWARD DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE... LOWS WILL AGAIN
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY....NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE
REGION. WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PLANTED OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE ARKLAMISS WILL CONTINUE TO GET FRONTS AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EVERY FEW DAYS. THIS IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOR POPS.

BY THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST STALLED FRONT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
STALL ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION AROUND MONDAY. EACH SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LACKING MUCH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH EACH SYSTEM IS
ALSO DISTANT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN PLENTY OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEMS STAYING TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN RIDGE WAVERING
FURTHER EAST SOME DAYS...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MISS
THE WESTERN ZONES...BASICALLY AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OF COURSE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POPS RIGHT NOW ARE LOW. BETWEEN EACH FRONT WILL
BE A DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. NOT
ANTICIPATING A PATTERN SHIFT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. /07/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/19/07





000
FXUS64 KJAN 230128 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER...
CONVECTION IS HANGING ON WELL INTO THIS EVENING. FORECAST POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY THE 4Z-5Z TIME FRAME. ALSO UPDATED HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR
OVER MUCH OF SE MISSISSIPPI. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
STATUS IF SHOWERS IS OBSERVED WITHIN EACH SITES RESPECTED TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AS
CONVECTION DIMINISHES. THEREAFTER...MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EAST AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL AROUND 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN TAF SITES./17/

&&

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETROGRADING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE BROKEN OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD DRIFTING LOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING IN
THIS MOIST AIR MASS DESTABILIZES OUR ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE AID OF
THE THE UPPER LOW STILL RESIDING OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION...
ALTHOUGH A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN ON TUESDAY.  JUST AS WE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY... SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL
HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MEANDERING ABOUT...I DID ADJUST
HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS AS THEY AGAIN PEAK
AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT...OR ANY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION THAT`S ONGOING NEAR IT...COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT MAY IMPEDE UPON MY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES
TOWARD DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE... LOWS WILL AGAIN
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY....NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE
REGION. WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PLANTED OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE ARKLAMISS WILL CONTINUE TO GET FRONTS AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EVERY FEW DAYS. THIS IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOR POPS.

BY THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST STALLED FRONT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
STALL ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION AROUND MONDAY. EACH SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LACKING MUCH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH EACH SYSTEM IS
ALSO DISTANT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN PLENTY OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEMS STAYING TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN RIDGE WAVERING
FURTHER EAST SOME DAYS...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MISS
THE WESTERN ZONES...BASICALLY AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OF COURSE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POPS RIGHT NOW ARE LOW. BETWEEN EACH FRONT WILL
BE A DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. NOT
ANTICIPATING A PATTERN SHIFT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. /07/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/19/07






000
FXUS64 KJAN 222020
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETROGRADING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE BROKEN OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD DRIFTING LOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING IN
THIS MOIST AIR MASS DESTABILIZES OUR ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE AID OF THE
THE UPPER LOW STILL RESIDING OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION...ALTHOUGH A
BIT FURTHER WEST THAN ON TUESDAY.  JUST AS WE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY...
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MEANDERING ABOUT...I DID ADJUST HIGHS
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS AS THEY AGAIN PEAK AROUND
THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT...OR ANY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION THAT`S ONGOING NEAR IT...COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT MAY IMPEDE UPON MY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES
TOWARD DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE... LOWS WILL AGAIN
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY....NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE
REGION. WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PLANTED OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE ARKLAMISS WILL CONTINUE TO GET FRONTS AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EVERY FEW DAYS. THIS IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOR POPS.

BY THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST STALLED FRONT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
STALL ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION AROUND MONDAY. EACH SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LACKING MUCH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH EACH SYSTEM IS
ALSO DISTANT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN PLENTY OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEMS STAYING TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN RIDGE WAVERING
FURTHER EAST SOME DAYS...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MISS
THE WESTERN ZONES...BASICALLY AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OF COURSE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POPS RIGHT NOW ARE LOW. BETWEEN EACH FRONT WILL
BE A DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. NOT
ANTICIPATING A PATTERN SHIFT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
STATUS IF CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN EACH SITES RESPECTED
AERODROME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING
AS CONVECTION WINDS DOWN. THEREAFTER...MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EAST AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL AROUND 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  91  71  92 /  20  31  14  19
MERIDIAN      69  91  69  92 /  28  35  19  26
VICKSBURG     69  91  70  92 /  14  23   9  18
HATTIESBURG   70  92  72  93 /  22  36  14  31
NATCHEZ       69  90  70  93 /  13  40  11  23
GREENVILLE    70  92  73  91 /  10  15  11  16
GREENWOOD     70  91  72  91 /  15  23  20  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/07/26






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