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000
FXUS64 KJAN 260838
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
338 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Prominent ridge axis
which has been sheltering the area from convection to the west was
finally compromised yesterday afternoon and evening.  While ridge
looks to still be in place, it has been flattened considerably with
more westerly wind components blowing through at the moment. While
some reorganization of the ridge is likely today, a convective
repeat is also likely over the western sections by afternoon with
eastern areas remaining dry.

As the main core of the mid level storm system in the Rockies
finally moves out into the Plains this afternoon and evening,
disturbed southwesterly flow regime will have an increasing impact
over mainly northwest portions in the form of a better convective
coverage and severe potential.  GFS is showing decent lapse rates
for this time of year with near 30 vertical totals in the ArkLaMiss
Delta region this afternoon and evening.  Combine that with maximum
temperatures near 90 and deep layered shear of 20-25 knots, and some
of those storms could become robust with wind being the main threat.
Will outlook a limited threat of severe storms over the far
northwest this afternoon and evening in close proximity to SPCs
current marginal risk./26/

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday night...The overall pattern
will change very little on Saturday, with the best chances for
diurnal thunderstorm activity over the western portions of the area.
High temps will climb into the upper 80s for most of the area.
Upper ridging will strengthen over the area on Sunday with afternoon
highs climbing to around 90 with isolated afternoon/evening
thunderstorms possible.  Little will change Monday through Wednesday
with highs climbing to around 90 and isolated afternoon
thunderstorms possible each day.  The global models due indicate the
possibility of a pattern change later in the week, with better
chances of rain across the area. /15/


&&

.AVIATION...Low clouds and fog will support MVFR conditions through
the morning with ceilings rising to vfr by 26/18Z. VCTS can be
expected after 26/18Z at GLH/GWO/JAN and HKS. The convection should
wind down by 27/03Z. /26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  70  84  68 /  16  18  17  16
Meridian      88  66  86  65 /   8   9  11  11
Vicksburg     86  72  83  68 /  25  28  27  25
Hattiesburg   89  68  86  66 /   7  10   7   9
Natchez       86  72  84  69 /  26  27  27  23
Greenville    88  71  83  69 /  31  37  37  32
Greenwood     88  70  84  68 /  22  27  25  27

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 250841
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
341 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...The forecast area will
remain positioned along the western periphery of a surface high
wedged into the region from the east and ridging aloft throughout
the forecast period.  This will continue to basically equate to warm
and increasingly humid conditions as persistent southerly flow
continues to subtly increase moisture across the region.  Highs both
today and Thursday will range from the middle 80s to around 90. Lows
tonight will range from the middle 60s to middle 70s, and from the
middle 60s to lower 70s Thursday night.

The aforementioned surface high and mid/upper level ridge will work
together to try and keep rain chances scarce across the majority of
the CWA. Still, just as we observed Tuesday night, ongoing complexes
of convection moving east from the Southern Plains towards the Mid
South region could spawn an outflow boundary that brings some showers
and storms to the Delta region later today.  Then Thursday into
Thursday night, a stronger disturbance is progged to lift northeast
while brushing the western half of the CWA.  This looks to
spark some scattered showers and storms across western portions of
the forecast area, primarily in locales along and west of the
Interstate 55 corridor. /19/

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Mid level southwest flow
regime, albeit weak, will be in place over the region at the
beginning of the period and looks to become weaker with time
according to a consensus of the models as central Plains wave ejects
out into the upper MS river valley.  Meanwhile, at the surface, flow
looks to remain weak southerly for the most part as dewpoints remain
in the 60s and lower 70s.  An increasingly summerish feel as
maximums continue to push 90.

Diurnal airmass convection looks like a good bet each day, but warm
air in the lower levels should play an inhibiting role for much of
each day leaving development possibilities for mid to late
afternoon, nearest time of maximum heating.  Coverage looks best in
the west in better CAPEs and surface dewpoints./26/


&&

.AVIATION...Some patchy low stratus is possible first thing this
morning, perhaps briefly reducing flight categories to MVFR status.
Low stratus will dissipate by mid-morning, with VFR flight
categories currently forecast to prevail at TAF sites over the area
this afternoon and evening. Winds today will be southerly between 5-10
knots. These will subside a bit this evening, remaining southerly
from 3-8 knots overnight. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  69  88  69 /   8   4  13  18
Meridian      89  63  89  67 /   4   2   8   9
Vicksburg     87  71  87  71 /  12   7  20  27
Hattiesburg   89  67  90  68 /   4   2   8   8
Natchez       88  71  86  71 /  11   6  18  23
Greenville    88  71  87  71 /  20   9  23  41
Greenwood     88  70  87  70 /  16   8  19  30

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$




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