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000
FXUS64 KJAN 292114
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
412 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...If anybody was thinking a cold front would bring our
region pleasant conditions at the end of the June, think again. In
the wake of the front (now working south and washing out near the I-
20 corridor) temperatures across the Mid South and Tennessee Valley
have actually held well less than 90 degrees this afternoon in many
cases. However, down here (even in the wake of the front north of I-
20), high temperatures have still managed to peak in the well up in
the 90s in quite a few spots. The one saving grace is that dewpoints
behind the front have been more tolerable and thus heat index values
have mainly been limited to a range of 95 to 100 degrees. Mainly
south of the front there has been enough instability (despite poor
atmospheric temp lapse rates) to trigger isolated to scattered
showers and storms. This activity will mainly continue to affect far
southern zones through early evening with precipitation ending or
becoming confined to the coast thereafter. Lows tonight could be a
little cooler than has been the case lately thanks to the drier air
filtering in (but still far from pleasant).

The story over the next few days will be continued warmth, lack of
rain, and less humidity than has been the case lately. Many models
are showing signals of appreciable atmospheric daytime mixing due to
a combination of weak thermal capping and a relatively dry boundary
layer. Forecast thinking this afternoon is that models are not fully
taking this mixing potential into account and so our forecasted high
temperatures in most cases are at least a little above blended model
guidance. Many locations could be looking at high temperatures in
the upper 90s by Friday and Saturday, but the mentioned lack of big
time humidity should keep us under heat advisory criteria.

Low level flow should start to turn more decidedly from the south
Sunday and on Independence Day and that will signal the return of
higher humidity. Raw temperatures may not increase at all these days
and there may be a little better chance for a pop-up afternoon
shower in some spots, but the increased humidity will likely raise
peak heat indices regardless. For now we have kept the HWO clean of
heat threats considering the prospect of convection is a little bit
of wild card, but if the forecast continues to trend in the
direction it is going now then tomorrow the mention of heat risks in
graphics and the HWO will become a good possibility.

Unfortunately, as we go further into next week, the prospect of any
relief from the heat is looking quite poor. Model consensus
continues to suggest upper level ridging in the vicinity of the
region probably strengthening over this time frame and this, of
course, would only spell a worsening of the status quo (and
certainly no relief). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue across the area today.
Isolated to scattered convection continues across the southern and
eastern counties, moving south. This may cause some brief MVFR/IFR
conditions across KHBG for mainly this afternoon into early evening.
Winds will be from the north at 5 to 8 knots for this afternoon.
Winds will be lighter tonight, about 5kts or less. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  95  71  96 /  12   7   5   7
Meridian      70  95  70  96 /  15  13   6  11
Vicksburg     70  95  70  96 /   9   4   3   6
Hattiesburg   73  93  72  94 /  19  27  15  15
Natchez       71  93  71  94 /  15   9   6  12
Greenville    68  94  72  96 /   4   3   3   9
Greenwood     67  94  70  95 /   3   2   3   7

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

BB/28




000
FXUS64 KJAN 291506 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1005 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...A cold frontal boundary is pushing very slowly south into
the region this morning, currently analyzed between the Interstate
Twenty and Highway 82 corridors. Weather conditions behind the front
will certainly not be drastically different, but should feature less
humidity heading into the afternoon. There have been some showers
and a stray storm this morning over portions of southeastern
Mississippi, and expect this activity to gradually increase across
mainly areas south of I-20 (south of the front) through the
afternoon. Instability will not be high and forcing not great so
convective coverage or intensity is not expected to be impressive,
even in those mentioned southern zones. Main forecast tweak was to
increase high temps 1 to 2 degrees along and north of the I-20
corridor for this afternoon. Despite the frontal passage in those
areas the latest short range models agree that appreciable boundary
layer mixing will yield scattered peak actual temps in the mid 90s.
Of course with the good mixing dewpoints at peak heating time in
those spots should be way down in the 60s and therefore heat index
values not an issue. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION....VFR conditions are expected across the area today.
Expect isolated to scattered convection across the southern and
eastern counties...which may cause some brief MVFR/IFR conditions
across KHBG for mainly this afternoon into early evening. Winds will
be from the north at 5 to 8 knots for this afternoon. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
For the Today through Thursday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed northwest flow across the CWA
around a subtropical ridge 594 dkm centered over the Southwest US.
Latest predawn surface analysis showed a surface front pushing
through the CWA. Area radars were picking up some isolated showers
near our southeast counties. Predawn temps were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. There was also some patchy fog across the south half of
the CWA. Precipitable water was 1.2 north to 2.1 inches south.

The primary concerns will be our rain chances across the south
as other areas dry out from the north as well as temperatures.

For early this morning put in some patchy early morning fog across
the southern two-thirds of the CWA. The fog will affect mainly areas
that received rainfall yesterday. Otherwise for the Today through
Thursday the frontal boundary will push south and become stationary
across our southern counties. A series of weak short waves will
cross the region from the northwest along the frontal boundary. With
the dryer airmass coming in precipitable water will decrease to
below one inch in some of our northern and central counties. Across
the south precipitable water will run around 1.5 to 1.8
inches...which will aid in limited rain chances.

As we push into Thursday night the frontal boundary will be
weakening as it pushes south of the CWA. So expect only isolated
evening convection in the southeast before it moves south of the
region during the evening.

As far as temps are concern it will be cool enough to avoid any heat
index concerns through Thursday afternoon. Daily highs will be in
the lower 90s. Lows tonight will be from the middle 60s to the lower
70s. Lows for Thursday night will be from the upper 60s to the lower
70s. /17/

LONG TERM...
Overall warmer than normal temperatures are expected for the long
term period. Friday a dry air mass with PWATs less than an inch and
a half and surface dew points in the low to mid 60s will be over
most of our CWA. The exception will be in our southeast where
greater moisture will reside in proximity of an old stalled
boundary. Daytime heating will lead to low POPs across our southeast
but the remainder of the area will be dry. A shortwave trough
swinging east across the Great Lakes region will shift east of the
Northeast CONUS Friday night. This will result in a cold front
dropping south over Tennessee and into northern Mississippi before
stalling north of our CWA by Saturday. Dry weather will continue
over the central portions of our CWA but light return flow help
convection over our southern zones while the proximity of the
stalled front will aid convection across our northern most zones
Saturday afternoon. Sunday ridging surface and aloft will strengthen
along the Gulf coast from the east while another shortwave trough
swings east across the the mid and lower Mississippi River valleys.
A moist air mass with PWATS just shy of two inches will be back over
our whole CWA. Daytime heating will lead to at least a slight chance
of afternoon and early evening storms in the north and south again.
Ridging surface and aloft will hold tough over the northern Gulf
Monday and Tuesday while a couple shortwaves continue to track
across northern Mississippi and help set off mainly diurnally
driven storms. Greatest POPs will be carried over our north each day.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  70  93  70 /  12   5  10   5
Meridian      93  69  93  68 /  15  14  12   6
Vicksburg     94  69  94  70 /   7   4   7   5
Hattiesburg   90  72  93  72 /  29  20  22  14
Natchez       90  71  92  71 /  32   9  12   8
Greenville    93  68  92  71 /   2   3   4   4
Greenwood     93  66  92  69 /   1   3   5   4

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

BB/28/17/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 290849
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
349 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
For the Today through Thursday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed northwest flow across the CWA
around a subtropical ridge 594 dkm centered over the Southwest US.
Latest predawn surface analysis showed a surface front pushing
through the CWA. Area radars were picking up some isolated showers
near our southeast counties. Predawn temps were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. There was also some patchy fog across the south half of
the CWA. Precipitable water was 1.2 north to 2.1 inches south.

The primary concerns will be our rain chances across the south
as other areas dry out from the north as well as temperatures.

For early this morning put in some patchy early morning fog across
the southern two-thirds of the CWA. The fog will affect mainly areas
that received rainfall yesterday. Otherwise for the Today through
Thursday the frontal boundary will push south and become stationary
across our southern counties. A series of weak short waves will
cross the region from the northwest along the frontal boundary. With
the dryer airmass coming in precipitable water will decrease to
below one inch in some of our northern and central counties. Across
the south precipitable water will run around 1.5 to 1.8
inches...which will aid in limited rain chances.

As we push into Thursday night the frontal boundary will be
weakening as it pushes south of the CWA. So expect only isolated
evening convection in the southeast before it moves south of the
region during the evening.

As far as temps are concern it will be cool enough to avoid any heat
index concerns through Thursday afternoon. Daily highs will be in
the lower 90s. Lows tonight will be from the middle 60s to the lower
70s. Lows for Thursday night will be from the upper 60s to the lower
70s. /17/

.LONG TERM...
Overall warmer than normal temperatures are expected for the long
term period. Friday a dry air mass with PWATs less than an inch and
a half and surface dew points in the low to mid 60s will be over
most of our CWA. The exception will be in our southeast where
greater moisture will reside in proximity of an old stalled
boundary. Daytime heating will lead to low POPs across our southeast
but the remainder of the area will be dry. A shortwave trough
swinging east across the Great Lakes region will shift east of the
Northeast CONUS Friday night. This will result in a cold front
dropping south over Tennessee and into northern Mississippi before
stalling north of our CWA by Saturday. Dry weather will continue
over the central portions of our CWA but light return flow help
convection over our southern zones while the proximity of the
stalled front will aid convection across our northern most zones
Saturday afternoon. Sunday ridging surface and aloft will strengthen
along the Gulf coast from the east while another shortwave trough
swings east across the the mid and lower Mississippi River valleys.
A moist air mass with PWATS just shy of two inches will be back over
our whole CWA. Daytime heating will lead to at least a slight chance
of afternoon and early evening storms in the north and south again.
Ridging surface and aloft will hold tough over the northern Gulf
Monday and Tuesday while a couple shortwaves continue to track
across northern Mississippi and help set off mainly diurnally
driven storms. Greatest POPs will be carried over our north each day.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
There looks to be more opportunity for MVFR/IFR conditions at
JAN/HKS/HBG/MEI and will cover that with a larger window. VFR
conditions look to quickly return by 14z Wed. Expect isolated to
scattered convection across the southern and eastern counties...which
may cause some brief mvfr/ifr conditions across KHBG for mainly this
afternoon into early evening. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 8
knots for this afternoon and 3-5 knots for tonight. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  70  93  70 /  11   7  10   5
Meridian      92  69  93  68 /  18  16  12   6
Vicksburg     93  69  94  70 /  10   6   7   5
Hattiesburg   90  72  93  72 /  45  22  22  14
Natchez       90  71  92  71 /  18  11  12   8
Greenville    92  68  92  71 /   9   5   4   4
Greenwood     92  66  92  69 /   9   5   5   4

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

17/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 290849
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
349 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
For the Today through Thursday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed northwest flow across the CWA
around a subtropical ridge 594 dkm centered over the Southwest US.
Latest predawn surface analysis showed a surface front pushing
through the CWA. Area radars were picking up some isolated showers
near our southeast counties. Predawn temps were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. There was also some patchy fog across the south half of
the CWA. Precipitable water was 1.2 north to 2.1 inches south.

The primary concerns will be our rain chances across the south
as other areas dry out from the north as well as temperatures.

For early this morning put in some patchy early morning fog across
the southern two-thirds of the CWA. The fog will affect mainly areas
that received rainfall yesterday. Otherwise for the Today through
Thursday the frontal boundary will push south and become stationary
across our southern counties. A series of weak short waves will
cross the region from the northwest along the frontal boundary. With
the dryer airmass coming in precipitable water will decrease to
below one inch in some of our northern and central counties. Across
the south precipitable water will run around 1.5 to 1.8
inches...which will aid in limited rain chances.

As we push into Thursday night the frontal boundary will be
weakening as it pushes south of the CWA. So expect only isolated
evening convection in the southeast before it moves south of the
region during the evening.

As far as temps are concern it will be cool enough to avoid any heat
index concerns through Thursday afternoon. Daily highs will be in
the lower 90s. Lows tonight will be from the middle 60s to the lower
70s. Lows for Thursday night will be from the upper 60s to the lower
70s. /17/

.LONG TERM...
Overall warmer than normal temperatures are expected for the long
term period. Friday a dry air mass with PWATs less than an inch and
a half and surface dew points in the low to mid 60s will be over
most of our CWA. The exception will be in our southeast where
greater moisture will reside in proximity of an old stalled
boundary. Daytime heating will lead to low POPs across our southeast
but the remainder of the area will be dry. A shortwave trough
swinging east across the Great Lakes region will shift east of the
Northeast CONUS Friday night. This will result in a cold front
dropping south over Tennessee and into northern Mississippi before
stalling north of our CWA by Saturday. Dry weather will continue
over the central portions of our CWA but light return flow help
convection over our southern zones while the proximity of the
stalled front will aid convection across our northern most zones
Saturday afternoon. Sunday ridging surface and aloft will strengthen
along the Gulf coast from the east while another shortwave trough
swings east across the the mid and lower Mississippi River valleys.
A moist air mass with PWATS just shy of two inches will be back over
our whole CWA. Daytime heating will lead to at least a slight chance
of afternoon and early evening storms in the north and south again.
Ridging surface and aloft will hold tough over the northern Gulf
Monday and Tuesday while a couple shortwaves continue to track
across northern Mississippi and help set off mainly diurnally
driven storms. Greatest POPs will be carried over our north each day.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
There looks to be more opportunity for MVFR/IFR conditions at
JAN/HKS/HBG/MEI and will cover that with a larger window. VFR
conditions look to quickly return by 14z Wed. Expect isolated to
scattered convection across the southern and eastern counties...which
may cause some brief mvfr/ifr conditions across KHBG for mainly this
afternoon into early evening. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 8
knots for this afternoon and 3-5 knots for tonight. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  70  93  70 /  11   7  10   5
Meridian      92  69  93  68 /  18  16  12   6
Vicksburg     93  69  94  70 /  10   6   7   5
Hattiesburg   90  72  93  72 /  45  22  22  14
Natchez       90  71  92  71 /  18  11  12   8
Greenville    92  68  92  71 /   9   5   4   4
Greenwood     92  66  92  69 /   9   5   5   4

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

17/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 290206 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
906 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The front has slipped through most of the CWA by now and the
associated showers/storms are dissipating for the most part. A few
storms are still popping up along the boundary though. Storms are
expected to remain tame. No lightning has been seen with any storms
for awhile now. Adjusted pops for the remainder of the night. Lows
will sink to the low 70s by morning. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated activity is still holding on in a few places, but the
overall trend has been for much less activity than this afternoon.
Look for some lingering precip chances across the S half overnight.
Flight conditions will mainly be VFR with some brief MVFR periods for
JAN/HKS. There looks to be more opportunity for MVFR/IFR conditions
at HBG/MEI and will cover that with a larger window. VFR conditions
look to quickly return by 14z Wed. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have increased in
coverage this afternoon in response to our warm and soupy airmass in
place and a weak cold front sagging south toward our region. Despite
some flow, lapse rates are fairly meager and thus these storms are
not expected to be strong or severe. Given our PW value around 2.1
inches off this morning`s sounding, some efficient heavy rainfall
will be possible. Much of this activity is expected to diminish
through the evening but some hi-res model guidance indicates that a
few showers/storms could linger into later tonight. Thus, I will keep
some POPs going through the late evening into the early overnight
hours. The aforementioned cold front should move through the region
tonight and clear our area by tomorrow. If some locations can see
clear skies tonight, there may be some potential for fog.

Drier weather will occur tomorrow through the end of the week, but
temperatures will still feel summerlike with highs in the 90s and
overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s and lower 70s. Conditions will
feel a little better given moisture content should be lower(PW values
progged to be around an inch to an inch and a half). Our next chance
for rain will return for the weekend into the early part of next
week as moisture returns and storm activity will be diurnal in
nature. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  92  68  93 /  16  10   6   5
Meridian      71  92  66  91 /  18  14   7  10
Vicksburg     72  92  67  92 /  16   9   6   6
Hattiesburg   73  90  69  94 /  78  31  10  14
Natchez       72  92  68  89 /  25  23   9  13
Greenville    73  91  67  91 /   3   4   4   2
Greenwood     72  93  67  92 /   9   5   5   6

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 282045
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have increased in
coverage this afternoon in response to our warm and soupy airmass in
place and a weak cold front sagging south toward our region. Despite
some flow, lapse rates are fairly meager and thus these storms are
not expected to be strong or severe. Given our PW value around 2.1
inches off this morning`s sounding, some efficient heavy rainfall
will be possible. Much of this activity is expected to diminish
through the evening but some hi-res model guidance indicates that a
few showers/storms could linger into later tonight. Thus, I will keep
some POPs going through the late evening into the early overnight
hours. The aforementioned cold front should move through the region
tonight and clear our area by tomorrow. If some locations can see
clear skies tonight, there may be some potential for fog.

Drier weather will occur tomorrow through the end of the week, but
temperatures will still feel summerlike with highs in the 90s and
overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s and lower 70s. Conditions will
feel a little better given moisture content should be lower(PW values
progged to be around an inch to an inch and a half). Our next chance
for rain will return for the weekend into the early part of next
week as moisture returns and storm activity will be diurnal in
nature. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...There have been a lot of MVFR ceiling restrictions around
the region through midday, but most sites have improved to VFR
through afternoon despite scattered showers and thunderstorms. Of
course some sub-VFR flight cats are quite possible in areas highly
impacted by thunderstorms, but expect any such related restrictions
to be brief in nature. Winds will be from the northeast at generally
less than 10 mph today away from thunderstorms. Some patchy late
night fog is possible in all areas as skies clear and winds calm.
Convection should be less tomorrow and mainly limited to areas south
of I-20. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  92  68  93 /  25   9   6   5
Meridian      69  92  66  91 /  25   7   7  10
Vicksburg     70  92  67  92 /  20   4   6   6
Hattiesburg   72  90  69  94 /  46  31  10  14
Natchez       71  92  68  89 /  43  24   9  13
Greenville    72  91  67  91 /  13   5   4   2
Greenwood     70  93  67  92 /  15   5   5   6

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

28/BB




000
FXUS64 KJAN 281622 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1122 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...A rather moist airmass is in place over the region today
with KJAN 12Z sounding indicating a precipitable water value around
2.1 inches. A weak front is still situated farther north of the CWA
across the mid-Mississippi Valley region this morning. This front
will eventually make its way down to our region and this will be an
impetus for additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon given
our warm and soupy airmass. Despite decent atmospheric flow, lapse
rates are fairly poor so local microburst analysis indicates a low
probability of this occurrence this afternoon. Going forecast is in
decent shape and adjustments were made to better confine POPs across
central and southern areas this afternoon. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...There have been a lot of IFR to MVFR ceiling
restrictions around the region this morning, but anticipate a
gradual improvement to VFR through early afternoon. As ceilings
break down and lift and temperatures warm there will be isolated to
scattered storms and storms developing, especially along and south
of the Interstate Twenty corridor. Of course some sub-VFR flight
cats are quite possible in areas highly impacted by thunderstorms,
but expect any such related restriction to be brief in nature. Winds
will be from the northeast at generally less than 10 mph today away
from thunderstorms. Some patchy late night fog is possible in all
areas as skies clear and winds calm. /BB/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
For the Today through Wednesday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed northwest flow across the CWA
around a subtropical ridge centered over the Southwest US. Latest
predawn surface analysis a 1017 mb ridging over the CWA with a weak
surface boundary. Area radars were not picking up any showers over
the CWA at this time. Predawn temps were in the lower to middle 70s.
Precipitable water was 1.9 to 2.1 inches across the CWA.

The primary concern will be the good convective coverage for today
through this evening in combination with some locally heavy rainfall
potential and a few strong storms. This will be followed by rain
chances decreasing from the north Wednesday into Wednesday night.

For today into tonight we will be looking at precipitable water of
2.0 to 2.25 inches for some locally heavy rainfall. The flow will be
a little better with some areas north of I-20 will have 25-30 knots
of bulk shear from 0-2km to the 0-3km levels. Also a weak front will
push through the area. Low level lapse rates will be around 6-9c.
However with the slightly cooler temps expected highs generally
around 90, expect less instability than on Monday. Also mid level
lapse rates will be weak. Hi-Res models generally keep the stronger
storms south of the CWA for this afternoon into this evening which
seems reasonable. There may be enough dynamics for a few strong
storms with the limited convergence around the frontal boundary with
the primary risk of some gusty winds. So with this in mind will keep
the severe risk out of the HWO.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night we will be looking at a dryer
airmass pushing into the CWA from the north. This will end our rain
chances by Wednesday night. Precipitable water will go below one
inch across the north half on Wednesday night. There may be a little
more instability for convection with highs in the lower 90s. Expect
another day of weak midlevel lapse rates and vertical totals.

As far as temps are concern it will be cool enough to avoid any heat
index concerns through Wednesday afternoon. Highs today will be in
the upper 80s to around 90. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower
90s. Lows tonight will be from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows
for Wednesday night will be from the middle 60s to the lower 70s/17/

LONG TERM...
Come Thursday morning the cold front will be south of our CWA. The
ECMWF is a little farther north with the front and tries to generate
some afternoon convection along the front across our southern zones
but model consensus is dry and wl not carry mention of POPs.
Northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday as our CWA remains
between a broad mid level ridge over the southwest CONUS and a mid
level trough over the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will also be
oriented from the Ohio Valley southwest across the Lower Mississippi
River Valley as well. This will provide a north low level flow over
our region Thursday and help knock dew points into the upper 50s to
lower 60s Thursday afternoon. Thursday night a northern stream
shortwave will drop over the northern plains and swing east across
the Great Lakes region Friday then shift east of the Northeast CONUS
Friday night. This will result in a cold front dropping south over
Tennessee and into northern Mississippi but stalling north of our CWA
by Saturday. The dry weather over our CWA Thursday is expected to
last through Saturday with a couple exceptions. The first exception
is across our southern most zones Friday and Saturday afternoons
where light return flow may help convection along the sea breeze
front edge into our area before dissipating. The second exception is
across our northern most zones Saturday afternoon where convection
along the stalled front may spread south into our area before
dissipating. Little change is expected Sunday but we will have a
moist air mass back over the whole CWA. Daytime heating will lead to
at least a slight chance of afternoon and early evening storms.
Ridging surface and aloft will hold tough over the northern Gulf
Monday and Tuesday while a couple northern stream shortwaves track
across northern Mississippi and help set off storms. Greatest POPs
will be carried over our north each day. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  71  92  70 /  48  23  12  12
Meridian      87  72  92  69 /  40  30  16  11
Vicksburg     89  72  92  71 /  38  21  11  10
Hattiesburg   90  73  91  72 /  65  52  30  12
Natchez       88  72  90  71 /  54  31  21  11
Greenville    91  73  92  68 /  20  16   8   7
Greenwood     92  71  92  68 /  22  16   5   8

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 281622 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1122 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...A rather moist airmass is in place over the region today
with KJAN 12Z sounding indicating a precipitable water value around
2.1 inches. A weak front is still situated farther north of the CWA
across the mid-Mississippi Valley region this morning. This front
will eventually make its way down to our region and this will be an
impetus for additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon given
our warm and soupy airmass. Despite decent atmospheric flow, lapse
rates are fairly poor so local microburst analysis indicates a low
probability of this occurrence this afternoon. Going forecast is in
decent shape and adjustments were made to better confine POPs across
central and southern areas this afternoon. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...There have been a lot of IFR to MVFR ceiling
restrictions around the region this morning, but anticipate a
gradual improvement to VFR through early afternoon. As ceilings
break down and lift and temperatures warm there will be isolated to
scattered storms and storms developing, especially along and south
of the Interstate Twenty corridor. Of course some sub-VFR flight
cats are quite possible in areas highly impacted by thunderstorms,
but expect any such related restriction to be brief in nature. Winds
will be from the northeast at generally less than 10 mph today away
from thunderstorms. Some patchy late night fog is possible in all
areas as skies clear and winds calm. /BB/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
For the Today through Wednesday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed northwest flow across the CWA
around a subtropical ridge centered over the Southwest US. Latest
predawn surface analysis a 1017 mb ridging over the CWA with a weak
surface boundary. Area radars were not picking up any showers over
the CWA at this time. Predawn temps were in the lower to middle 70s.
Precipitable water was 1.9 to 2.1 inches across the CWA.

The primary concern will be the good convective coverage for today
through this evening in combination with some locally heavy rainfall
potential and a few strong storms. This will be followed by rain
chances decreasing from the north Wednesday into Wednesday night.

For today into tonight we will be looking at precipitable water of
2.0 to 2.25 inches for some locally heavy rainfall. The flow will be
a little better with some areas north of I-20 will have 25-30 knots
of bulk shear from 0-2km to the 0-3km levels. Also a weak front will
push through the area. Low level lapse rates will be around 6-9c.
However with the slightly cooler temps expected highs generally
around 90, expect less instability than on Monday. Also mid level
lapse rates will be weak. Hi-Res models generally keep the stronger
storms south of the CWA for this afternoon into this evening which
seems reasonable. There may be enough dynamics for a few strong
storms with the limited convergence around the frontal boundary with
the primary risk of some gusty winds. So with this in mind will keep
the severe risk out of the HWO.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night we will be looking at a dryer
airmass pushing into the CWA from the north. This will end our rain
chances by Wednesday night. Precipitable water will go below one
inch across the north half on Wednesday night. There may be a little
more instability for convection with highs in the lower 90s. Expect
another day of weak midlevel lapse rates and vertical totals.

As far as temps are concern it will be cool enough to avoid any heat
index concerns through Wednesday afternoon. Highs today will be in
the upper 80s to around 90. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower
90s. Lows tonight will be from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows
for Wednesday night will be from the middle 60s to the lower 70s/17/

LONG TERM...
Come Thursday morning the cold front will be south of our CWA. The
ECMWF is a little farther north with the front and tries to generate
some afternoon convection along the front across our southern zones
but model consensus is dry and wl not carry mention of POPs.
Northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday as our CWA remains
between a broad mid level ridge over the southwest CONUS and a mid
level trough over the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will also be
oriented from the Ohio Valley southwest across the Lower Mississippi
River Valley as well. This will provide a north low level flow over
our region Thursday and help knock dew points into the upper 50s to
lower 60s Thursday afternoon. Thursday night a northern stream
shortwave will drop over the northern plains and swing east across
the Great Lakes region Friday then shift east of the Northeast CONUS
Friday night. This will result in a cold front dropping south over
Tennessee and into northern Mississippi but stalling north of our CWA
by Saturday. The dry weather over our CWA Thursday is expected to
last through Saturday with a couple exceptions. The first exception
is across our southern most zones Friday and Saturday afternoons
where light return flow may help convection along the sea breeze
front edge into our area before dissipating. The second exception is
across our northern most zones Saturday afternoon where convection
along the stalled front may spread south into our area before
dissipating. Little change is expected Sunday but we will have a
moist air mass back over the whole CWA. Daytime heating will lead to
at least a slight chance of afternoon and early evening storms.
Ridging surface and aloft will hold tough over the northern Gulf
Monday and Tuesday while a couple northern stream shortwaves track
across northern Mississippi and help set off storms. Greatest POPs
will be carried over our north each day. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  71  92  70 /  48  23  12  12
Meridian      87  72  92  69 /  40  30  16  11
Vicksburg     89  72  92  71 /  38  21  11  10
Hattiesburg   90  73  91  72 /  65  52  30  12
Natchez       88  72  90  71 /  54  31  21  11
Greenville    91  73  92  68 /  20  16   8   7
Greenwood     92  71  92  68 /  22  16   5   8

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 280902
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
402 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
For the Today through Wednesday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed northwest flow across the CWA
around a subtropical ridge centered over the Southwest US. Latest
predawn surface analysis a 1017 mb ridging over the CWA with a weak
surface boundary. Area radars were not picking up any showers over
the CWA at this time. Predawn temps were in the lower to middle 70s.
Precipitable water was 1.9 to 2.1 inches across the CWA.

The primary concern will be the good convective coverage for today
through this evening in combination with some locally heavy rainfall
potential and a few strong storms. This will be followed by rain
chances decreasing from the north Wednesday into Wednesday night.

For today into tonight we will be looking at precipitable water of
2.0 to 2.25 inches for some locally heavy rainfall. The flow will be
a little better with some areas north of I-20 will have 25-30 knots
of bulk shear from 0-2km to the 0-3km levels. Also a weak front will
push through the area. Low level lapse rates will be around 6-9c.
However with the slightly cooler temps expected highs generally
around 90, expect less instability than on Monday. Also mid level
lapse rates will be weak. Hi-Res models generally keep the stronger
storms south of the CWA for this afternoon into this evening which
seems reasonable. There may be enough dynamics for a few strong
storms with the limited convergence around the frontal boundary with
the primary risk of some gusty winds. So with this in mind will keep
the severe risk out of the HWO.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night we will be looking at a dryer
airmass pushing into the CWA from the north. This will end our rain
chances by Wednesday night. Precipitable water will go below one
inch across the north half on Wednesday night. There may be a little
more instability for convection with highs in the lower 90s. Expect
another day of weak midlevel lapse rates and vertical totals.

As far as temps are concern it will be cool enough to avoid any heat
index concerns through Wednesday afternoon. Highs today will be in
the upper 80s to around 90. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower
90s. Lows tonight will be from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows
for Wednesday night will be from the middle 60s to the lower 70s/17/

.LONG TERM...
Come Thursday morning the cold front will be south of our CWA. The
ECMWF is a little farther north with the front and tries to generate
some afternoon convection along the front across our southern zones
but model consensus is dry and wl not carry mention of POPs.
Northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday as our CWA remains
between a broad mid level ridge over the southwest CONUS and a mid
level trough over the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will also be
oriented from the Ohio Valley southwest across the Lower Mississippi
River Valley as well. This will provide a north low level flow over
our region Thursday and help knock dew points into the upper 50s to
lower 60s Thursday afternoon. Thursday night a northern stream
shortwave will drop over the northern plains and swing east across
the Great Lakes region Friday then shift east of the Northeast CONUS
Friday night. This will result in a cold front dropping south over
Tennessee and into northern Mississippi but stalling north of our CWA
by Saturday. The dry weather over our CWA Thursday is expected to
last through Saturday with a couple exceptions. The first exception
is across our southern most zones Friday and Saturday afternoons
where light return flow may help convection along the sea breeze
front edge into our area before dissipating. The second exception is
across our northern most zones Saturday afternoon where convection
along the stalled front may spread south into our area before
dissipating. Little change is expected Sunday but we will have a
moist air mass back over the whole CWA. Daytime heating will lead to
at least a slight chance of afternoon and early evening storms.
Ridging surface and aloft will hold tough over the northern Gulf
Monday and Tuesday while a couple northern stream shortwaves track
across northern Mississippi and help set off storms. Greatest POPs
will be carried over our north each day. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
For Today, look for a earlier start to convective activity with the
better coverage across central and southern sections. There will be
brief periods of ceiling and visibility obstructions with the
thunderstorms. There could be some brief heavy downpours and some
gusty winds with the stronger storms. Expect northeast winds at 5-10
knots for today as well as light northeasterly for tonight./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  71  92  70 /  59  53  12  12
Meridian      91  72  92  69 /  58  53  16  11
Vicksburg     90  72  92  71 /  56  51  11  10
Hattiesburg   90  73  91  72 /  68  64  30  12
Natchez       88  72  90  71 /  63  59  21  11
Greenville    91  73  92  68 /  31  28   8   7
Greenwood     90  71  92  68 /  37  33   5   8

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

17/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 280902
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
402 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
For the Today through Wednesday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed northwest flow across the CWA
around a subtropical ridge centered over the Southwest US. Latest
predawn surface analysis a 1017 mb ridging over the CWA with a weak
surface boundary. Area radars were not picking up any showers over
the CWA at this time. Predawn temps were in the lower to middle 70s.
Precipitable water was 1.9 to 2.1 inches across the CWA.

The primary concern will be the good convective coverage for today
through this evening in combination with some locally heavy rainfall
potential and a few strong storms. This will be followed by rain
chances decreasing from the north Wednesday into Wednesday night.

For today into tonight we will be looking at precipitable water of
2.0 to 2.25 inches for some locally heavy rainfall. The flow will be
a little better with some areas north of I-20 will have 25-30 knots
of bulk shear from 0-2km to the 0-3km levels. Also a weak front will
push through the area. Low level lapse rates will be around 6-9c.
However with the slightly cooler temps expected highs generally
around 90, expect less instability than on Monday. Also mid level
lapse rates will be weak. Hi-Res models generally keep the stronger
storms south of the CWA for this afternoon into this evening which
seems reasonable. There may be enough dynamics for a few strong
storms with the limited convergence around the frontal boundary with
the primary risk of some gusty winds. So with this in mind will keep
the severe risk out of the HWO.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night we will be looking at a dryer
airmass pushing into the CWA from the north. This will end our rain
chances by Wednesday night. Precipitable water will go below one
inch across the north half on Wednesday night. There may be a little
more instability for convection with highs in the lower 90s. Expect
another day of weak midlevel lapse rates and vertical totals.

As far as temps are concern it will be cool enough to avoid any heat
index concerns through Wednesday afternoon. Highs today will be in
the upper 80s to around 90. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower
90s. Lows tonight will be from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows
for Wednesday night will be from the middle 60s to the lower 70s/17/

.LONG TERM...
Come Thursday morning the cold front will be south of our CWA. The
ECMWF is a little farther north with the front and tries to generate
some afternoon convection along the front across our southern zones
but model consensus is dry and wl not carry mention of POPs.
Northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday as our CWA remains
between a broad mid level ridge over the southwest CONUS and a mid
level trough over the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will also be
oriented from the Ohio Valley southwest across the Lower Mississippi
River Valley as well. This will provide a north low level flow over
our region Thursday and help knock dew points into the upper 50s to
lower 60s Thursday afternoon. Thursday night a northern stream
shortwave will drop over the northern plains and swing east across
the Great Lakes region Friday then shift east of the Northeast CONUS
Friday night. This will result in a cold front dropping south over
Tennessee and into northern Mississippi but stalling north of our CWA
by Saturday. The dry weather over our CWA Thursday is expected to
last through Saturday with a couple exceptions. The first exception
is across our southern most zones Friday and Saturday afternoons
where light return flow may help convection along the sea breeze
front edge into our area before dissipating. The second exception is
across our northern most zones Saturday afternoon where convection
along the stalled front may spread south into our area before
dissipating. Little change is expected Sunday but we will have a
moist air mass back over the whole CWA. Daytime heating will lead to
at least a slight chance of afternoon and early evening storms.
Ridging surface and aloft will hold tough over the northern Gulf
Monday and Tuesday while a couple northern stream shortwaves track
across northern Mississippi and help set off storms. Greatest POPs
will be carried over our north each day. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
For Today, look for a earlier start to convective activity with the
better coverage across central and southern sections. There will be
brief periods of ceiling and visibility obstructions with the
thunderstorms. There could be some brief heavy downpours and some
gusty winds with the stronger storms. Expect northeast winds at 5-10
knots for today as well as light northeasterly for tonight./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  71  92  70 /  59  53  12  12
Meridian      91  72  92  69 /  58  53  16  11
Vicksburg     90  72  92  71 /  56  51  11  10
Hattiesburg   90  73  91  72 /  68  64  30  12
Natchez       88  72  90  71 /  63  59  21  11
Greenville    91  73  92  68 /  31  28   8   7
Greenwood     90  71  92  68 /  37  33   5   8

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

17/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 280231
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
930 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to weaken across the
area this evening and expect this trend to continue. Expect the
activity to remain below severe limits for the remainder of the
evening, so will update the HWO and take out the potential for
severe, although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out through
late evening. HI-res models suggest at least showers hanging around
the area overnight into Tuesday morning. Made a few minor updates to
the forecast along with updating the HWO, but for the most part the
forecast is on track and updates are already out./15/

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Thursday morning...

A very busy forecast is ongoing today as the upper ridge is finally
beginning to begin the break down over the next couple of days. Until
then, heat has been entrenched in the area with some areas again
reaching upper 90s again. Had went on the warmer side today due to
warmer temps aloft and we achieved on the warm end, especially with
some decent mixing ongoing. However, some areas have been able to
hold on to some decent low level boundary layer moisture, which has
kept heat indices in the 100-105 degree range, mainly on the high
end, most of the afternoon. There have also been a few sites peak
above 105 degree heat indices. Kept HWO/graphics ongoing for heat for
today. Thankfully, increasing convection tonight will help tone down
the temperatures and heat fairly quickly.

In addition to the heat, overall good warming has led to efficient
low level lapse rates and widespread convection, mainly in the
southern and eastern portions of the region. Due to good lapse rates
and potential for precip loading/evaporational cooling, left severe
potential in the graphics/HWO for today. HRRR and local radars
continue to show a decent somewhat broken complex of storms moving
into southern TN and could be the focus for more severe activity this
evening, mainly after 00z. Expect this disturbance to move through at
least the north to central portions of the area but due to loss of
heating, there could be weakening of the convection after 03z. Left
some POPs in overnight as some guidance show a little lingering
around. Another humid night is in store with lows in the mid 70s.

As the cold front moves into the area Tuesday and with storms and
clouds expected early on, overall this should hinder warming
tomorrow keeping us in the upper 80s to low 90s. Could not rule out
some strong storms and locally heavy downpours along the front,
mainly along and S of I-20, but severe potential looks not as much as
today. There will be some decent vertical totals around and some
slight increase of flow but overall, but with not as warm conditions
expected and lower low level lapse rates, this is not enough to
mention anything in the HWO/graphics. A gradual decrease in clouds
and POP will begin to occur around 00Z, with much drier air filtering
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The front will also stall along the
Gulf Coast, keeping some chances of showers and maybe some storms,
mainly confined along and south of the Highway 84 corridor. Highs may
be slightly warmer in the low 90s due to the drier air around. With
PW`s falling near 1 inch in places, slightly cooler and drier air
will finally begin to filter in. Lows will fall off near the low 70s
Wednesday morning to even upper 60s Thursday morning. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

Thursday through next weekend...

Temperatures and POPs were good, so stuck with guidance. Pattern
does not look as wet for the end of the week this run. The upper
ridge seems to dominate, at least the European model seems to think
it will. The system for early next week may also be delayed and
shifted due to the upper ridge.

Wednesday through Friday the boundary lingers near the coast.
Several disturbances ride along the boundary, so small rain chances
south of Interstate 20 seem ok. If the surface high drops down quick
behind the boundary, the end of the week may be dry. With the area in
northwest flow, it still looks like a few convective complexes will
approach the CWA going into the weekend, but nothing quite makes it.
Since the upper ridge does not appear to break down but just shift
back and forth through early next week. It is unclear whether the
next boundary will be a back door front or miss the CWA all together.
For now it looks like the front will catch the northeast and move
west/southwest into the area early next week. PW values climb back to
near 2 inches, so could see some good rainfall amounts. Forecast
soundings also show some decent instability and elevated lapse rates.
Nothing good enough to add to the HWO at this time. Overall, no real
changes to the extended forecast. A chance of rain each day and
warmer than normal temperatures. /DC/07/

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered storms are impacting the eastern areas and
restrictions from this should diminish pretty soon. Other activity
moving out of N MS may impact GWO/GLH a bit later. Overall, VFR
conditions should exist overnight with some lingering chance of some
activity, but will not mention in forecast until a better handle on
when/where is known. For Tuesday, look for a earlier start to
activity with the better coverage across central and southern
sections. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  90  72  92 /  46  62  60  13
Meridian      74  91  71  93 /  46  70  68  20
Vicksburg     75  90  72  92 /  46  56  53  11
Hattiesburg   74  90  73  91 /  46  74  72  36
Natchez       74  88  72  90 /  46  67  65  27
Greenville    75  90  72  92 /  51  31  29   7
Greenwood     74  90  71  91 /  62  32  30   6

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/07/CME




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