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000
FXUS64 KJAN 250152 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...FIRST OFF...WANTED TO CONFIRM THAT TORNADO WATCH #204 HAS
INDEED EXPIRED FOR ALL OF OUR COVERAGE REGION. IT WAS LOCALLY
EXTENDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OUR SOUTH BY THE NEW ORLEANS
OFFICE...WHICH RESULTED IN SOME CONFUSION.

BUT DESPITE THE WATCH EXPIRING FOR OUR REGION THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN A LINGERING POTENTIAL
FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM WILL REMAIN WELL INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT
ANALYSIS REVEALS IMPRESSIVE NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
(AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF) THE MS RIVER AXIS WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES (VERY HIGH FOR
THE DATE) ARE COINCIDENT WITH THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS AND THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR REGION. SHEAR LEVELS ARE SUCH THAT EVEN WITH MLCAPE
VALUES UNDER 1000 J/KG A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND
INDEED MANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
FORTUNATELY...LATEST HRRR HIRES OUTPUT SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT) ASSOCIATED WITH SAID TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. IF THIS AXIS WERE EXPECTED TO STALL
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUES OVERNIGHT WOULD GO WAY UP...BUT
EVEN WITH THAT NOT ANTICIPATED THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING (WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED HWO). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF
POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AND VIS RESTRICTION IFR OR WORSE. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS STORMS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY LATE) WITH OF COURSE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR EXCLUSIVELY VFR TRAFFIC. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AIDED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WHILE CONVECTION HASN`T BEEN
PARTICULARLY DEEP SO FAR TODAY...SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE STILL BEEN
EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS. TORNADO WATCH 204 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
OF OUR LA PARISHES/AR COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL MS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW END...
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
RATHER MARGINAL SRH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH NEITHER EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS PER SPC SSEO/RECENT RAP RUNS. BUFR SOUNDING ANALYSIS/VWPS
ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE DELTA...SO THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

EVEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NEARLY MERIDIONAL THUS NOT GIVING ACTIVITY MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD PUSH OUT OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. SIMILARLY WE MAY
SOME CONVECTION BECOME REINVIGORATED FARTHER EAST ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS STRONGER FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1 3/4 INCH. IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE A NOTABLE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST (PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 IN) AND
THE GROUND WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SATURATED DUE TO RAIN FROM
TODAY/TONIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM...AS WE GO INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME
HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  81  70  81 /  87  62  46  76
MERIDIAN      69  80  69  80 /  46  63  40  79
VICKSBURG     71  84  71  81 /  95  60  67  79
HATTIESBURG   71  81  71  82 /  62  71  42  73
NATCHEZ       71  84  71  81 /  90  66  66  77
GREENVILLE    70  83  70  80 /  89  69  74  78
GREENWOOD     71  83  70  79 /  92  66  58  79

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 250152 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...FIRST OFF...WANTED TO CONFIRM THAT TORNADO WATCH #204 HAS
INDEED EXPIRED FOR ALL OF OUR COVERAGE REGION. IT WAS LOCALLY
EXTENDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OUR SOUTH BY THE NEW ORLEANS
OFFICE...WHICH RESULTED IN SOME CONFUSION.

BUT DESPITE THE WATCH EXPIRING FOR OUR REGION THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN A LINGERING POTENTIAL
FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM WILL REMAIN WELL INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT
ANALYSIS REVEALS IMPRESSIVE NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
(AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF) THE MS RIVER AXIS WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES (VERY HIGH FOR
THE DATE) ARE COINCIDENT WITH THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS AND THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR REGION. SHEAR LEVELS ARE SUCH THAT EVEN WITH MLCAPE
VALUES UNDER 1000 J/KG A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND
INDEED MANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
FORTUNATELY...LATEST HRRR HIRES OUTPUT SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT) ASSOCIATED WITH SAID TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. IF THIS AXIS WERE EXPECTED TO STALL
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUES OVERNIGHT WOULD GO WAY UP...BUT
EVEN WITH THAT NOT ANTICIPATED THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING (WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED HWO). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF
POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AND VIS RESTRICTION IFR OR WORSE. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS STORMS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY LATE) WITH OF COURSE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR EXCLUSIVELY VFR TRAFFIC. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AIDED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WHILE CONVECTION HASN`T BEEN
PARTICULARLY DEEP SO FAR TODAY...SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE STILL BEEN
EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS. TORNADO WATCH 204 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
OF OUR LA PARISHES/AR COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL MS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW END...
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
RATHER MARGINAL SRH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH NEITHER EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS PER SPC SSEO/RECENT RAP RUNS. BUFR SOUNDING ANALYSIS/VWPS
ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE DELTA...SO THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

EVEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NEARLY MERIDIONAL THUS NOT GIVING ACTIVITY MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD PUSH OUT OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. SIMILARLY WE MAY
SOME CONVECTION BECOME REINVIGORATED FARTHER EAST ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS STRONGER FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1 3/4 INCH. IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE A NOTABLE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST (PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 IN) AND
THE GROUND WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SATURATED DUE TO RAIN FROM
TODAY/TONIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM...AS WE GO INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME
HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  81  70  81 /  87  62  46  76
MERIDIAN      69  80  69  80 /  46  63  40  79
VICKSBURG     71  84  71  81 /  95  60  67  79
HATTIESBURG   71  81  71  82 /  62  71  42  73
NATCHEZ       71  84  71  81 /  90  66  66  77
GREENVILLE    70  83  70  80 /  89  69  74  78
GREENWOOD     71  83  70  79 /  92  66  58  79

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 242137
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
437 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AIDED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WHILE CONVECTION HASN`T BEEN
PARTICULARLY DEEP SO FAR TODAY...SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE STILL BEEN
EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS. TORNADO WATCH 204 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
OF OUR LA PARISHES/AR COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL MS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW END...
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
RATHER MARGINAL SRH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH NEITHER EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS PER SPC SSEO/RECENT RAP RUNS. BUFR SOUNDING ANALYSIS/VWPS
ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE DELTA...SO THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

EVEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NEARLY MERIDIONAL THUS NOT GIVING ACTIVITY MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD PUSH OUT OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. SIMILARLY WE MAY
SOME CONVECTION BECOME REINVIGORATED FARTHER EAST ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS STRONGER FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1 3/4 INCH. IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE A NOTABLE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST (PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 IN) AND
THE GROUND WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SATURATED DUE TO RAIN FROM
TODAY/TONIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM...AS WE GO INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME
HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD./17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT MOST
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR
CEILINGS AND VIS RESTRICTION IFR OR WORSE...AND ALSO SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS. EVEN AWAY FROM THE STORMS EXPECT RATHER WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
NUMEROUS STORMS TOMORROW WITH OF COURSE POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR
EXCLUSIVELY VFR TRAFFIC. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  81  70  81 /  64  62  46  76
MERIDIAN      69  80  69  80 /  39  60  40  79
VICKSBURG     71  84  71  81 /  73  60  67  79
HATTIESBURG   71  81  71  82 /  56  66  42  73
NATCHEZ       71  84  71  81 /  70  66  66  77
GREENVILLE    70  83  70  80 /  83  69  74  78
GREENWOOD     71  83  70  79 /  79  66  58  79

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/BB



000
FXUS64 KJAN 241501 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1001 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...A STRATUS DECK COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. RADAR
WAS ALREADY SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO
THE PINE BELT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK AND NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING IN STRATUS
CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 16-17Z AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LIFT. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO GWO/GLH/JAN/HKS. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 05-06Z AS STRATUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES OUT IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONGOING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVER TX WITH SEVERAL MCV/S NOTED ON AREA RADARS.
HIRES DATA INDICATES THAT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
BAND LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE...WEAK LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID
20S) WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS AS PW/S
APPROACH 2 INCHES. SHEAR...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE MUCH BETTER
AS 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR SETS UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE/LOW HELICITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES RUNNING 2.5-3 IN AT THE MOMENT...SO WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN BEFORE FLOODING WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM.

NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SHEAR MORE PROLIFIC. THIS
TIME...HODOGRAPHS WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CURVATURE AS 0-3 KM
HELICITIES APPROACH 250-300 M2/S2 AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS...WILL ADD SOME TORNADO WORDING TO THE HWO FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND AREA. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE MAY
POSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS AN FFA MAY BE NEEDED./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
POINTING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAINLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER JET ENERGY WILL BEGIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION
ON EARLY TUESDAY THEN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS WELL AT THE 0-3 KM LEVEL. WE WILL GET THE BASE OF THE
PRIMARY JET ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME
INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WITH SOME 6-7C LAPSE RATES. CIPS ANALOGUE
WAS ALSO HINTING AT SOME SEVERE CONCERNS. SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. OF SECOND CONCERN PWATS WILL BE FROM 1.7 TO
2.0 INCHES FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS WAS SHOWING 4-5
INCHES IN THE DELTA REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. WPC HAS A EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK FOR THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
GRAPHIC OF 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. CIPS ANALOGUE WAS ALSO PICKING UP
SOME SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS WE GO INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD./17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/15/26/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 241501 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1001 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...A STRATUS DECK COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. RADAR
WAS ALREADY SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO
THE PINE BELT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK AND NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING IN STRATUS
CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 16-17Z AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LIFT. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO GWO/GLH/JAN/HKS. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 05-06Z AS STRATUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES OUT IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONGOING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVER TX WITH SEVERAL MCV/S NOTED ON AREA RADARS.
HIRES DATA INDICATES THAT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
BAND LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE...WEAK LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID
20S) WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS AS PW/S
APPROACH 2 INCHES. SHEAR...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE MUCH BETTER
AS 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR SETS UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE/LOW HELICITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES RUNNING 2.5-3 IN AT THE MOMENT...SO WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN BEFORE FLOODING WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM.

NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SHEAR MORE PROLIFIC. THIS
TIME...HODOGRAPHS WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CURVATURE AS 0-3 KM
HELICITIES APPROACH 250-300 M2/S2 AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS...WILL ADD SOME TORNADO WORDING TO THE HWO FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND AREA. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE MAY
POSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS AN FFA MAY BE NEEDED./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
POINTING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAINLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER JET ENERGY WILL BEGIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION
ON EARLY TUESDAY THEN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS WELL AT THE 0-3 KM LEVEL. WE WILL GET THE BASE OF THE
PRIMARY JET ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME
INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WITH SOME 6-7C LAPSE RATES. CIPS ANALOGUE
WAS ALSO HINTING AT SOME SEVERE CONCERNS. SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. OF SECOND CONCERN PWATS WILL BE FROM 1.7 TO
2.0 INCHES FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS WAS SHOWING 4-5
INCHES IN THE DELTA REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. WPC HAS A EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK FOR THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
GRAPHIC OF 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. CIPS ANALOGUE WAS ALSO PICKING UP
SOME SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS WE GO INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD./17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/15/26/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 241501 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1001 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...A STRATUS DECK COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. RADAR
WAS ALREADY SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO
THE PINE BELT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK AND NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING IN STRATUS
CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 16-17Z AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LIFT. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO GWO/GLH/JAN/HKS. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 05-06Z AS STRATUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES OUT IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONGOING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVER TX WITH SEVERAL MCV/S NOTED ON AREA RADARS.
HIRES DATA INDICATES THAT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
BAND LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE...WEAK LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID
20S) WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS AS PW/S
APPROACH 2 INCHES. SHEAR...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE MUCH BETTER
AS 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR SETS UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE/LOW HELICITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES RUNNING 2.5-3 IN AT THE MOMENT...SO WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN BEFORE FLOODING WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM.

NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SHEAR MORE PROLIFIC. THIS
TIME...HODOGRAPHS WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CURVATURE AS 0-3 KM
HELICITIES APPROACH 250-300 M2/S2 AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS...WILL ADD SOME TORNADO WORDING TO THE HWO FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND AREA. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE MAY
POSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS AN FFA MAY BE NEEDED./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
POINTING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAINLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER JET ENERGY WILL BEGIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION
ON EARLY TUESDAY THEN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS WELL AT THE 0-3 KM LEVEL. WE WILL GET THE BASE OF THE
PRIMARY JET ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME
INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WITH SOME 6-7C LAPSE RATES. CIPS ANALOGUE
WAS ALSO HINTING AT SOME SEVERE CONCERNS. SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. OF SECOND CONCERN PWATS WILL BE FROM 1.7 TO
2.0 INCHES FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS WAS SHOWING 4-5
INCHES IN THE DELTA REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. WPC HAS A EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK FOR THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
GRAPHIC OF 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. CIPS ANALOGUE WAS ALSO PICKING UP
SOME SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS WE GO INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD./17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/15/26/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 241501 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1001 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...A STRATUS DECK COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. RADAR
WAS ALREADY SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO
THE PINE BELT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK AND NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING IN STRATUS
CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 16-17Z AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LIFT. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO GWO/GLH/JAN/HKS. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 05-06Z AS STRATUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES OUT IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONGOING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVER TX WITH SEVERAL MCV/S NOTED ON AREA RADARS.
HIRES DATA INDICATES THAT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
BAND LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE...WEAK LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID
20S) WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS AS PW/S
APPROACH 2 INCHES. SHEAR...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE MUCH BETTER
AS 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR SETS UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE/LOW HELICITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES RUNNING 2.5-3 IN AT THE MOMENT...SO WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN BEFORE FLOODING WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM.

NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SHEAR MORE PROLIFIC. THIS
TIME...HODOGRAPHS WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CURVATURE AS 0-3 KM
HELICITIES APPROACH 250-300 M2/S2 AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS...WILL ADD SOME TORNADO WORDING TO THE HWO FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND AREA. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE MAY
POSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS AN FFA MAY BE NEEDED./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
POINTING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAINLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER JET ENERGY WILL BEGIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION
ON EARLY TUESDAY THEN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS WELL AT THE 0-3 KM LEVEL. WE WILL GET THE BASE OF THE
PRIMARY JET ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME
INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WITH SOME 6-7C LAPSE RATES. CIPS ANALOGUE
WAS ALSO HINTING AT SOME SEVERE CONCERNS. SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. OF SECOND CONCERN PWATS WILL BE FROM 1.7 TO
2.0 INCHES FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS WAS SHOWING 4-5
INCHES IN THE DELTA REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. WPC HAS A EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK FOR THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
GRAPHIC OF 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. CIPS ANALOGUE WAS ALSO PICKING UP
SOME SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS WE GO INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD./17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/15/26/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 240955
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES OUT IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONGOING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVER TX WITH SEVERAL MCV/S NOTED ON AREA RADARS.
HIRES DATA INDICATES THAT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
BAND LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE...WEAK LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID
20S) WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS AS PW/S
APPROACH 2 INCHES. SHEAR...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE MUCH BETTER
AS 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR SETS UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE/LOW HELICITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES RUNNING 2.5-3 IN AT THE MOMENT...SO WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN BEFORE FLOODING WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM.

NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SHEAR MORE PROLIFIC. THIS
TIME...HODOGRAPHS WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CURVATURE AS 0-3 KM
HELICITIES APPROACH 250-300 M2/S2 AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS...WILL ADD SOME TORNADO WORDING TO THE HWO FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND AREA. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE MAY
POSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS AN FFA MAY BE NEEDED./26/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
POINTING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAINLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER JET ENERGY WILL BEGIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION
ON EARLY TUESDAY THEN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS WELL AT THE 0-3 KM LEVEL. WE WILL GET THE BASE OF THE
PRIMARY JET ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME
INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WITH SOME 6-7C LAPSE RATES. CIPS ANALOGUE
WAS ALSO HINTING AT SOME SEVERE CONCERNS. SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. OF SECOND CONCERN PWATS WILL BE FROM 1.7 TO
2.0 INCHES FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS WAS SHOWING 4-5
INCHES IN THE DELTA REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. WPC HAS A EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK FOR THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
GRAPHIC OF 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. CIPS ANALOGUE WAS ALSO PICKING UP
SOME SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS WE GO INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD./17/


&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING RETURNING TO VFR
BY 18Z. VCTS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH THE MORE CATEGORICAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVING WITH A SQUALL LINE BY 21Z NEAR GLH/JAN/HKS. THESE
CONDDITIONS WILL PASS THROUGH THE GWO/GTR AREAS BY 03Z BEFORE THE
LINE DIMINISHES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  71  82  70 /  36  59  69  53
MERIDIAN      85  71  81  69 /  34  42  64  46
VICKSBURG     86  72  83  71 /  50  69  74  63
HATTIESBURG   86  72  82  71 /  29  54  70  42
NATCHEZ       85  71  83  71 /  56  64  73  60
GREENVILLE    86  71  81  71 /  54  79  80  75
GREENWOOD     86  71  82  70 /  43  72  76  62

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 240955
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES OUT IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONGOING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVER TX WITH SEVERAL MCV/S NOTED ON AREA RADARS.
HIRES DATA INDICATES THAT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
BAND LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE...WEAK LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID
20S) WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS AS PW/S
APPROACH 2 INCHES. SHEAR...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE MUCH BETTER
AS 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR SETS UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE/LOW HELICITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES RUNNING 2.5-3 IN AT THE MOMENT...SO WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN BEFORE FLOODING WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM.

NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SHEAR MORE PROLIFIC. THIS
TIME...HODOGRAPHS WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CURVATURE AS 0-3 KM
HELICITIES APPROACH 250-300 M2/S2 AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS...WILL ADD SOME TORNADO WORDING TO THE HWO FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND AREA. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE MAY
POSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS AN FFA MAY BE NEEDED./26/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
POINTING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAINLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER JET ENERGY WILL BEGIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION
ON EARLY TUESDAY THEN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS WELL AT THE 0-3 KM LEVEL. WE WILL GET THE BASE OF THE
PRIMARY JET ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME
INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WITH SOME 6-7C LAPSE RATES. CIPS ANALOGUE
WAS ALSO HINTING AT SOME SEVERE CONCERNS. SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. OF SECOND CONCERN PWATS WILL BE FROM 1.7 TO
2.0 INCHES FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS WAS SHOWING 4-5
INCHES IN THE DELTA REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. WPC HAS A EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK FOR THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
GRAPHIC OF 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. CIPS ANALOGUE WAS ALSO PICKING UP
SOME SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS WE GO INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD./17/


&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING RETURNING TO VFR
BY 18Z. VCTS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH THE MORE CATEGORICAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVING WITH A SQUALL LINE BY 21Z NEAR GLH/JAN/HKS. THESE
CONDDITIONS WILL PASS THROUGH THE GWO/GTR AREAS BY 03Z BEFORE THE
LINE DIMINISHES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  71  82  70 /  36  59  69  53
MERIDIAN      85  71  81  69 /  34  42  64  46
VICKSBURG     86  72  83  71 /  50  69  74  63
HATTIESBURG   86  72  82  71 /  29  54  70  42
NATCHEZ       85  71  83  71 /  56  64  73  60
GREENVILLE    86  71  81  71 /  54  79  80  75
GREENWOOD     86  71  82  70 /  43  72  76  62

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 240955
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES OUT IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONGOING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVER TX WITH SEVERAL MCV/S NOTED ON AREA RADARS.
HIRES DATA INDICATES THAT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
BAND LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE...WEAK LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID
20S) WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS AS PW/S
APPROACH 2 INCHES. SHEAR...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE MUCH BETTER
AS 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR SETS UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE/LOW HELICITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES RUNNING 2.5-3 IN AT THE MOMENT...SO WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN BEFORE FLOODING WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM.

NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SHEAR MORE PROLIFIC. THIS
TIME...HODOGRAPHS WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CURVATURE AS 0-3 KM
HELICITIES APPROACH 250-300 M2/S2 AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS...WILL ADD SOME TORNADO WORDING TO THE HWO FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND AREA. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE MAY
POSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS AN FFA MAY BE NEEDED./26/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
POINTING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAINLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER JET ENERGY WILL BEGIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION
ON EARLY TUESDAY THEN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS WELL AT THE 0-3 KM LEVEL. WE WILL GET THE BASE OF THE
PRIMARY JET ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME
INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WITH SOME 6-7C LAPSE RATES. CIPS ANALOGUE
WAS ALSO HINTING AT SOME SEVERE CONCERNS. SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. OF SECOND CONCERN PWATS WILL BE FROM 1.7 TO
2.0 INCHES FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS WAS SHOWING 4-5
INCHES IN THE DELTA REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. WPC HAS A EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK FOR THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
GRAPHIC OF 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. CIPS ANALOGUE WAS ALSO PICKING UP
SOME SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS WE GO INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD./17/


&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING RETURNING TO VFR
BY 18Z. VCTS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH THE MORE CATEGORICAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVING WITH A SQUALL LINE BY 21Z NEAR GLH/JAN/HKS. THESE
CONDDITIONS WILL PASS THROUGH THE GWO/GTR AREAS BY 03Z BEFORE THE
LINE DIMINISHES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  71  82  70 /  36  59  69  53
MERIDIAN      85  71  81  69 /  34  42  64  46
VICKSBURG     86  72  83  71 /  50  69  74  63
HATTIESBURG   86  72  82  71 /  29  54  70  42
NATCHEZ       85  71  83  71 /  56  64  73  60
GREENVILLE    86  71  81  71 /  54  79  80  75
GREENWOOD     86  71  82  70 /  43  72  76  62

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 240955
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES OUT IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONGOING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVER TX WITH SEVERAL MCV/S NOTED ON AREA RADARS.
HIRES DATA INDICATES THAT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
BAND LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE...WEAK LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID
20S) WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS AS PW/S
APPROACH 2 INCHES. SHEAR...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE MUCH BETTER
AS 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR SETS UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE/LOW HELICITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES RUNNING 2.5-3 IN AT THE MOMENT...SO WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN BEFORE FLOODING WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM.

NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SHEAR MORE PROLIFIC. THIS
TIME...HODOGRAPHS WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CURVATURE AS 0-3 KM
HELICITIES APPROACH 250-300 M2/S2 AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS...WILL ADD SOME TORNADO WORDING TO THE HWO FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND AREA. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE MAY
POSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS AN FFA MAY BE NEEDED./26/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
POINTING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAINLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER JET ENERGY WILL BEGIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION
ON EARLY TUESDAY THEN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS WELL AT THE 0-3 KM LEVEL. WE WILL GET THE BASE OF THE
PRIMARY JET ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME
INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WITH SOME 6-7C LAPSE RATES. CIPS ANALOGUE
WAS ALSO HINTING AT SOME SEVERE CONCERNS. SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. OF SECOND CONCERN PWATS WILL BE FROM 1.7 TO
2.0 INCHES FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS WAS SHOWING 4-5
INCHES IN THE DELTA REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. WPC HAS A EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK FOR THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
GRAPHIC OF 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. CIPS ANALOGUE WAS ALSO PICKING UP
SOME SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS WE GO INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD./17/


&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING RETURNING TO VFR
BY 18Z. VCTS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH THE MORE CATEGORICAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVING WITH A SQUALL LINE BY 21Z NEAR GLH/JAN/HKS. THESE
CONDDITIONS WILL PASS THROUGH THE GWO/GTR AREAS BY 03Z BEFORE THE
LINE DIMINISHES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  71  82  70 /  36  59  69  53
MERIDIAN      85  71  81  69 /  34  42  64  46
VICKSBURG     86  72  83  71 /  50  69  74  63
HATTIESBURG   86  72  82  71 /  29  54  70  42
NATCHEZ       85  71  83  71 /  56  64  73  60
GREENVILLE    86  71  81  71 /  54  79  80  75
GREENWOOD     86  71  82  70 /  43  72  76  62

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 240955
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES OUT IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT WAVES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONGOING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE OVER TX WITH SEVERAL MCV/S NOTED ON AREA RADARS.
HIRES DATA INDICATES THAT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING AND BEGIN IMPACTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
BAND LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE...WEAK LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID
20S) WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS AS PW/S
APPROACH 2 INCHES. SHEAR...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL BE MUCH BETTER
AS 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR SETS UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE/LOW HELICITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES RUNNING 2.5-3 IN AT THE MOMENT...SO WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN BEFORE FLOODING WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM.

NEXT WAVE LOOKS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SHEAR MORE PROLIFIC. THIS
TIME...HODOGRAPHS WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CURVATURE AS 0-3 KM
HELICITIES APPROACH 250-300 M2/S2 AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE DELTA
REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER IMPACTS...WILL ADD SOME TORNADO WORDING TO THE HWO FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AND AREA. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE MAY
POSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH RUNOFF BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS AN FFA MAY BE NEEDED./26/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE
POINTING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAINLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE PIVOTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER JET ENERGY WILL BEGIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION
ON EARLY TUESDAY THEN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS WELL AT THE 0-3 KM LEVEL. WE WILL GET THE BASE OF THE
PRIMARY JET ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE SOME
INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS FOR SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AT THIS TIME STILL THINK THAT THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WITH SOME 6-7C LAPSE RATES. CIPS ANALOGUE
WAS ALSO HINTING AT SOME SEVERE CONCERNS. SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. OF SECOND CONCERN PWATS WILL BE FROM 1.7 TO
2.0 INCHES FOR TUESDAY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS WAS SHOWING 4-5
INCHES IN THE DELTA REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. WPC HAS A EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK FOR THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
GRAPHIC OF 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. CIPS ANALOGUE WAS ALSO PICKING UP
SOME SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. AS WE GO INTO THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD./17/


&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING RETURNING TO VFR
BY 18Z. VCTS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH THE MORE CATEGORICAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVING WITH A SQUALL LINE BY 21Z NEAR GLH/JAN/HKS. THESE
CONDDITIONS WILL PASS THROUGH THE GWO/GTR AREAS BY 03Z BEFORE THE
LINE DIMINISHES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  71  82  70 /  36  59  69  53
MERIDIAN      85  71  81  69 /  34  42  64  46
VICKSBURG     86  72  83  71 /  50  69  74  63
HATTIESBURG   86  72  82  71 /  29  54  70  42
NATCHEZ       85  71  83  71 /  56  64  73  60
GREENVILLE    86  71  81  71 /  54  79  80  75
GREENWOOD     86  71  82  70 /  43  72  76  62

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 240213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
913 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ANY STORMS THAT WERE IN NE LA HAVE WEAKENED AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT
BEFORE THE HRRR/HI-RES ARW/NMM INDICATE SHOWERS DWINDLING AND BEING
DRY THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL STAY LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH 15Z
SUNDAY. ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO TRIM POPS A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND REMOVE POPS
AFTER 04Z. ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS UPWARD ALONG/W OF I-55
CORRIDOR DUE TO CLOUD COVER IN THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYING
UP DUE TO GRADUAL INCREASE IN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN PLAINS. AREAS IN THE NE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER FROM HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE ERN CONUS WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE W/SW. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT ALL SITES WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR DURING THIS TIME. A
FEW EXCEPTIONS TOWARDS DAWN MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE MVFR
CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE (ALONG WITH PERHAPS A STRAY
SHOWER). AFTER SUNUP TOMORROW MVFR CEILINGS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER A FEW POINTS AND STIFFEN
UP TO OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND STORMS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE FAR MORE NUMEROUS THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. OUR CWA WAS STILL BEING
DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH AND A DRIER AIR MASS BUT A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WAS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHWEST MOST
ZONES. MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST SUNDAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVELS WILL
AMPLIFY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL SPELL A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR CWA
THAT LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR REGION SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES INCLUDING THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. THE SHORTWAVE IS PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS AND PWS ABOVE AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.
CONSIDERING THE HELICITY SOME MODELS DEPICT OVER THE AREA AS WELL...A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL WAIN WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THROUGH THE EVENING BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HEATING CONTRIBUTING
TO AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY EVENING IN OUR WEST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
OUR MOIST AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /22/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY BUT THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER CLOUDY
AND WET DAY. MODELS SUGGEST HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AGAIN WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY FALL.
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION AND COMBINES WITH OUR MOIST AIR MASS AND
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGHTENS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
OUR CWA. DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL STILL RESIDE
OVER OUR CWA SHOULD LEAD TO ATLEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH A CLOSED
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEREFORE DRIER FOR US
SATURDAY. ASSUMING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESSION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  85  70  82 /   9  48  53  70
MERIDIAN      66  86  69  81 /   7  32  49  64
VICKSBURG     70  86  71  81 /  13  50  72  74
HATTIESBURG   71  86  71  83 /  11  43  50  60
NATCHEZ       71  85  70  82 /  15  67  69  74
GREENVILLE    70  85  70  81 /  13  65  77  74
GREENWOOD     69  85  70  80 /   6  50  68  73

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/BB/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 240213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
913 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ANY STORMS THAT WERE IN NE LA HAVE WEAKENED AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT
BEFORE THE HRRR/HI-RES ARW/NMM INDICATE SHOWERS DWINDLING AND BEING
DRY THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL STAY LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH 15Z
SUNDAY. ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO TRIM POPS A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND REMOVE POPS
AFTER 04Z. ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS UPWARD ALONG/W OF I-55
CORRIDOR DUE TO CLOUD COVER IN THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYING
UP DUE TO GRADUAL INCREASE IN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN PLAINS. AREAS IN THE NE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER FROM HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE ERN CONUS WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE W/SW. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT ALL SITES WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR DURING THIS TIME. A
FEW EXCEPTIONS TOWARDS DAWN MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE MVFR
CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE (ALONG WITH PERHAPS A STRAY
SHOWER). AFTER SUNUP TOMORROW MVFR CEILINGS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER A FEW POINTS AND STIFFEN
UP TO OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND STORMS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE FAR MORE NUMEROUS THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. OUR CWA WAS STILL BEING
DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH AND A DRIER AIR MASS BUT A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WAS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHWEST MOST
ZONES. MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST SUNDAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVELS WILL
AMPLIFY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL SPELL A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR CWA
THAT LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR REGION SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES INCLUDING THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. THE SHORTWAVE IS PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS AND PWS ABOVE AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.
CONSIDERING THE HELICITY SOME MODELS DEPICT OVER THE AREA AS WELL...A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL WAIN WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THROUGH THE EVENING BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HEATING CONTRIBUTING
TO AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY EVENING IN OUR WEST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
OUR MOIST AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /22/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY BUT THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER CLOUDY
AND WET DAY. MODELS SUGGEST HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AGAIN WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY FALL.
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION AND COMBINES WITH OUR MOIST AIR MASS AND
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGHTENS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
OUR CWA. DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL STILL RESIDE
OVER OUR CWA SHOULD LEAD TO ATLEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH A CLOSED
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEREFORE DRIER FOR US
SATURDAY. ASSUMING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESSION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  85  70  82 /   9  48  53  70
MERIDIAN      66  86  69  81 /   7  32  49  64
VICKSBURG     70  86  71  81 /  13  50  72  74
HATTIESBURG   71  86  71  83 /  11  43  50  60
NATCHEZ       71  85  70  82 /  15  67  69  74
GREENVILLE    70  85  70  81 /  13  65  77  74
GREENWOOD     69  85  70  80 /   6  50  68  73

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/BB/22



000
FXUS64 KJAN 240213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
913 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ANY STORMS THAT WERE IN NE LA HAVE WEAKENED AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT
BEFORE THE HRRR/HI-RES ARW/NMM INDICATE SHOWERS DWINDLING AND BEING
DRY THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL STAY LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH 15Z
SUNDAY. ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO TRIM POPS A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND REMOVE POPS
AFTER 04Z. ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS UPWARD ALONG/W OF I-55
CORRIDOR DUE TO CLOUD COVER IN THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYING
UP DUE TO GRADUAL INCREASE IN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN PLAINS. AREAS IN THE NE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER FROM HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE ERN CONUS WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE W/SW. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT ALL SITES WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR DURING THIS TIME. A
FEW EXCEPTIONS TOWARDS DAWN MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE MVFR
CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE (ALONG WITH PERHAPS A STRAY
SHOWER). AFTER SUNUP TOMORROW MVFR CEILINGS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER A FEW POINTS AND STIFFEN
UP TO OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND STORMS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE FAR MORE NUMEROUS THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. OUR CWA WAS STILL BEING
DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH AND A DRIER AIR MASS BUT A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WAS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHWEST MOST
ZONES. MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST SUNDAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVELS WILL
AMPLIFY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL SPELL A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR CWA
THAT LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR REGION SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES INCLUDING THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. THE SHORTWAVE IS PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS AND PWS ABOVE AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.
CONSIDERING THE HELICITY SOME MODELS DEPICT OVER THE AREA AS WELL...A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL WAIN WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THROUGH THE EVENING BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HEATING CONTRIBUTING
TO AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY EVENING IN OUR WEST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
OUR MOIST AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /22/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY BUT THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER CLOUDY
AND WET DAY. MODELS SUGGEST HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AGAIN WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY FALL.
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION AND COMBINES WITH OUR MOIST AIR MASS AND
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGHTENS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
OUR CWA. DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL STILL RESIDE
OVER OUR CWA SHOULD LEAD TO ATLEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH A CLOSED
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEREFORE DRIER FOR US
SATURDAY. ASSUMING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESSION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  85  70  82 /   9  48  53  70
MERIDIAN      66  86  69  81 /   7  32  49  64
VICKSBURG     70  86  71  81 /  13  50  72  74
HATTIESBURG   71  86  71  83 /  11  43  50  60
NATCHEZ       71  85  70  82 /  15  67  69  74
GREENVILLE    70  85  70  81 /  13  65  77  74
GREENWOOD     69  85  70  80 /   6  50  68  73

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/BB/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 232144
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. OUR CWA WAS STILL BEING
DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH AND A DRIER AIR MASS BUT A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WAS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHWEST MOST
ZONES. MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST SUNDAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVELS WILL
AMPLIFY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL SPELL A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR CWA
THAT LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR REGION SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES INCLUDING THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. THE SHORTWAVE IS PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS AND PWS ABOVE AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.
CONSIDERING THE HELICITY SOME MODELS DEPICT OVER THE AREA AS WELL...A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL WAIN WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THROUGH THE EVENING BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HEATING CONTRIBUTING
TO AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY EVENING IN OUR WEST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
OUR MOIST AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY BUT THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER CLOUDY
AND WET DAY. MODELS SUGGEST HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AGAIN WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY FALL.
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION AND COMBINES WITH OUR MOIST AIR MASS AND
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGHTENS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
OUR CWA. DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL STILL RESIDE
OVER OUR CWA SHOULD LEAD TO ATLEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH A CLOSED
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEREFORE DRIER FOR US
SATURDAY. ASSUMING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESSION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY
TAF SITES. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  85  70  82 /   9  48  53  70
MERIDIAN      66  86  69  81 /   7  32  49  64
VICKSBURG     69  86  71  81 /  13  50  72  74
HATTIESBURG   70  86  71  83 /  12  43  50  60
NATCHEZ       70  85  70  82 /  19  67  69  74
GREENVILLE    69  85  70  81 /  13  65  77  74
GREENWOOD     68  85  70  80 /   6  50  68  73

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/22/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 231503 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TODAY.
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MS BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. /26/28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUND
AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING OUR DRY/PLEASANT AIR TO
BE REPLACED BY MOIST/MUGGY AIR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE FAR SW SECTIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IS ONLY THE BEGINNING. DEEP LAYERED
S/SW FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. PW/S WILL INCREASE
FROM AROUND 1 INCH THIS MORNING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREADING FURTHER EAST DURING THE
DAY.

WHILE A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE ABSENT...WEAK
SHORTWAVES PEPPERED IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD EASILY ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN NEAR TROPICAL WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE INCREASED FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS...THUS WILL OUTLOOK A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN TOO FEEBLE FOR ANY DECENT HAIL
PRODUCTION. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE SHOWING 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR
IN THIS AREA. WHILE WIND PROFILES ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SRH
VALUES AROUND 100...SOME TURNING DURING THE EVENING MAY ALLOW A
TORNADO OR TWO TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH LCL/S LESS THAN 1KFT./26/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE LONG TERM SEEMS TO BE
THE GENERAL RULE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WE
WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH UPPER RIDGING TO
THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. WE WILL BE CAUGHT IN
THE PERIPHERY OF BOTH. THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WAS
GENERALLY AGREED BY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW THAT
UPPER JET ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS
ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH NARROWS AND PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD DEEP SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 0-6 KM AS WELL AS 0-3KM FOR LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH 6-7C LAPSE RATES. MODEL SNDGS SHOWS SRH AROUND 200 ALONG
WITH SOME INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS WITH THE STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. PRIMARY RISKS DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES WITH SOME
CORFIDI VECTOR RIDGING OF AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. GFS WAS TRYING TO PAINT SOME 4 PLUS INCHES FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE IT. THE CIPS
ANALOGUES ALSO POINTS TO SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH
EAST FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES FROM THE WEST
AS MEAN RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 1.6
EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  69  85  70 /   6   7  48  53
MERIDIAN      86  66  86  69 /   5   5  43  49
VICKSBURG     86  69  86  71 /   9  23  50  62
HATTIESBURG   87  70  86  71 /  12  12  43  50
NATCHEZ       85  70  85  70 /  23  21  55  61
GREENVILLE    84  69  85  70 /   8  16  54  64
GREENWOOD     84  68  85  70 /   5   6  41  59

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28/26/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 231503 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TODAY.
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MS BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. /26/28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUND
AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING OUR DRY/PLEASANT AIR TO
BE REPLACED BY MOIST/MUGGY AIR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE FAR SW SECTIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IS ONLY THE BEGINNING. DEEP LAYERED
S/SW FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. PW/S WILL INCREASE
FROM AROUND 1 INCH THIS MORNING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREADING FURTHER EAST DURING THE
DAY.

WHILE A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE ABSENT...WEAK
SHORTWAVES PEPPERED IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD EASILY ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN NEAR TROPICAL WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE INCREASED FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS...THUS WILL OUTLOOK A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN TOO FEEBLE FOR ANY DECENT HAIL
PRODUCTION. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE SHOWING 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR
IN THIS AREA. WHILE WIND PROFILES ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SRH
VALUES AROUND 100...SOME TURNING DURING THE EVENING MAY ALLOW A
TORNADO OR TWO TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH LCL/S LESS THAN 1KFT./26/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE LONG TERM SEEMS TO BE
THE GENERAL RULE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WE
WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH UPPER RIDGING TO
THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. WE WILL BE CAUGHT IN
THE PERIPHERY OF BOTH. THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WAS
GENERALLY AGREED BY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW THAT
UPPER JET ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS
ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH NARROWS AND PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD DEEP SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 0-6 KM AS WELL AS 0-3KM FOR LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH 6-7C LAPSE RATES. MODEL SNDGS SHOWS SRH AROUND 200 ALONG
WITH SOME INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS WITH THE STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. PRIMARY RISKS DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES WITH SOME
CORFIDI VECTOR RIDGING OF AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. GFS WAS TRYING TO PAINT SOME 4 PLUS INCHES FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE IT. THE CIPS
ANALOGUES ALSO POINTS TO SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH
EAST FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES FROM THE WEST
AS MEAN RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 1.6
EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  69  85  70 /   6   7  48  53
MERIDIAN      86  66  86  69 /   5   5  43  49
VICKSBURG     86  69  86  71 /   9  23  50  62
HATTIESBURG   87  70  86  71 /  12  12  43  50
NATCHEZ       85  70  85  70 /  23  21  55  61
GREENVILLE    84  69  85  70 /   8  16  54  64
GREENWOOD     84  68  85  70 /   5   6  41  59

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28/26/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 230910
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUND
AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING OUR DRY/PLEASANT AIR TO
BE REPLACED BY MOIST/MUGGY AIR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE FAR SW SECTIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IS ONLY THE BEGINNING. DEEP LAYERED
S/SW FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. PW/S WILL INCREASE
FROM AROUND 1 INCH THIS MORNING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREADING FURTHER EAST DURING THE
DAY.

WHILE A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE ABSENT...WEAK
SHORTWAVES PEPPERED IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD EASILY ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN NEAR TROPICAL WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE INCREASED FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS...THUS WILL OUTLOOK A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN TOO FEEBLE FOR ANY DECENT HAIL
PRODUCTION. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE SHOWING 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR
IN THIS AREA. WHILE WIND PROFILES ARE MOSTLY UNDIRECTIONAL WITH SRH
VALUES AROUND 100...SOME TURNING DURING THE EVENING MAY ALLOW A
TORNADO OR TWO TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH LCL/S LESS THAN 1KFT./26/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE LONG TERM SEEMS TO BE
THE GENERAL RULE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WE
WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH UPPER RIDGING TO
THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. WE WILL BE CAUGHT IN
THE PERIPHERY OF BOTH. THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WAS
GENERALLY AGREED BY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW THAT
UPPER JET ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS
ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH NARROWS AND PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD DEEP SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 0-6 KM AS WELL AS 0-3KM FOR LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH 6-7C LAPSE RATES. MODEL SNDGS SHOWS SRH AROUND 200 ALONG
WITH SOME INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS WITH THE STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. PRIMARY RISKS DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES WITH SOME
CORFIDI VECTOR RIDGING OF AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. GFS WAS TRYING TO PAINT SOME 4 PLUS INCHES FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE IT. THE CIPS
ANALOGUES ALSO POINTS TO SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH
EAST FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES FROM THE WEST
AS MEAN RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 1.6
EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. /17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES. VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AROUND 6 MILES WILL BE SEEN AT HBG UNTIL 14Z...OTHERWISE NO
OBSTUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  69  85  70 /   6   7  48  53
MERIDIAN      86  66  86  69 /   5   5  43  49
VICKSBURG     86  69  86  71 /   9  23  50  62
HATTIESBURG   87  70  86  71 /  12  12  43  50
NATCHEZ       85  70  85  70 /  23  21  55  61
GREENVILLE    84  69  85  70 /   8  16  54  64
GREENWOOD     84  68  85  70 /   5   6  41  59

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KJAN 230910
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUND
AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING OUR DRY/PLEASANT AIR TO
BE REPLACED BY MOIST/MUGGY AIR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE FAR SW SECTIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IS ONLY THE BEGINNING. DEEP LAYERED
S/SW FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. PW/S WILL INCREASE
FROM AROUND 1 INCH THIS MORNING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREADING FURTHER EAST DURING THE
DAY.

WHILE A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE ABSENT...WEAK
SHORTWAVES PEPPERED IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD EASILY ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN NEAR TROPICAL WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE INCREASED FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS...THUS WILL OUTLOOK A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN TOO FEEBLE FOR ANY DECENT HAIL
PRODUCTION. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE SHOWING 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR
IN THIS AREA. WHILE WIND PROFILES ARE MOSTLY UNDIRECTIONAL WITH SRH
VALUES AROUND 100...SOME TURNING DURING THE EVENING MAY ALLOW A
TORNADO OR TWO TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH LCL/S LESS THAN 1KFT./26/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE LONG TERM SEEMS TO BE
THE GENERAL RULE FOR THIS PERIOD. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WE
WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH UPPER RIDGING TO
THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. WE WILL BE CAUGHT IN
THE PERIPHERY OF BOTH. THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WAS
GENERALLY AGREED BY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW THAT
UPPER JET ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS
ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH NARROWS AND PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD DEEP SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 0-6 KM AS WELL AS 0-3KM FOR LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH 6-7C LAPSE RATES. MODEL SNDGS SHOWS SRH AROUND 200 ALONG
WITH SOME INTERESTING HODOGRAPHS WITH THE STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. PRIMARY RISKS DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES WITH SOME
CORFIDI VECTOR RIDGING OF AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. GFS WAS TRYING TO PAINT SOME 4 PLUS INCHES FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE IT. THE CIPS
ANALOGUES ALSO POINTS TO SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH
EAST FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES FROM THE WEST
AS MEAN RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 1.6
EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. /17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES. VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AROUND 6 MILES WILL BE SEEN AT HBG UNTIL 14Z...OTHERWISE NO
OBSTUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  69  85  70 /   6   7  48  53
MERIDIAN      86  66  86  69 /   5   5  43  49
VICKSBURG     86  69  86  71 /   9  23  50  62
HATTIESBURG   87  70  86  71 /  12  12  43  50
NATCHEZ       85  70  85  70 /  23  21  55  61
GREENVILLE    84  69  85  70 /   8  16  54  64
GREENWOOD     84  68  85  70 /   5   6  41  59

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




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