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000
FXUS64 KJAN 270814
AFDJAN

ZCZC JANWRKAFD 260827
TTAA00 KJAN DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS ABOUT TO PHASE
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE OZARKS WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN. ON THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

FOR TODAY MODELS SHOW THAT THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS SOME PATCHY
VERY LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PWATS AROUND A HALF
INCH..EXPECTING ONLY SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES FOR
THE MOST MOST PART AS SOME OF IT WONT REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WILL BE FROM 10 TO 17 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
TO THE EAST FOR TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
LIGHT RAIN TO EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 50
SOUTHWEST./17/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...AND WARMER CONDITIONS ENSUING.  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND STALL AS
IT LOSES IT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.

THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT`LL TRAVERSE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...
MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.  ALL THE
ABOVE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ESSENTIALLY EQUATE TO
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN VFR CONDITIONS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR TODAY. VFR CEILINGS WILL COME DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND STAY VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS AREA WIDE.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 8-11 KNOTS WITH GUST OF AROUND 15 TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  39  63  44  /  15  5  9  4
MERIDIAN      61  37  60  40  /  18 13 15  7
VICKSBURG     61  40  65  46  /  14  6  6  3
HATTIESBURG   64  40  68  46  /  15  4  5  7
NATCHEZ       64  42  69  49  /  13  2  2  2
GREENVILLE    57  38  56  42  /  15  8 12  5
GREENWOOD     55  37  55  40  /  16 13 21  7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 270814
AFDJAN

ZCZC JANWRKAFD 260827
TTAA00 KJAN DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS ABOUT TO PHASE
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE OZARKS WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN. ON THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

FOR TODAY MODELS SHOW THAT THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS SOME PATCHY
VERY LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PWATS AROUND A HALF
INCH..EXPECTING ONLY SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES FOR
THE MOST MOST PART AS SOME OF IT WONT REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WILL BE FROM 10 TO 17 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
TO THE EAST FOR TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
LIGHT RAIN TO EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 50
SOUTHWEST./17/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...AND WARMER CONDITIONS ENSUING.  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND STALL AS
IT LOSES IT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.

THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT`LL TRAVERSE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...
MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.  ALL THE
ABOVE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ESSENTIALLY EQUATE TO
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN VFR CONDITIONS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR TODAY. VFR CEILINGS WILL COME DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND STAY VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR LEVELS AREA WIDE.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 8-11 KNOTS WITH GUST OF AROUND 15 TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  39  63  44  /  15  5  9  4
MERIDIAN      61  37  60  40  /  18 13 15  7
VICKSBURG     61  40  65  46  /  14  6  6  3
HATTIESBURG   64  40  68  46  /  15  4  5  7
NATCHEZ       64  42  69  49  /  13  2  2  2
GREENVILLE    57  38  56  42  /  15  8 12  5
GREENWOOD     55  37  55  40  /  16 13 21  7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 270318 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1018 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT WAS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR
AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
UPDATED TEMPERATURE CURVES EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE FASTER
COOLING DUE TO THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA POISED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS IN OUR EAST UNTIL 3 AM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WAS IN VCTY OF HBG AT 03Z PRODUCING IFR
CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF OUR AREA BY
05Z BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...NW OF GLH AT 03Z WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. CLR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM TUP-HKS-HEZ...ALTHOUGH NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT. BLOCKING EFFECT FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF HAS ONLY ALLOWED WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S IN ADVANCE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...CLEARING OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

DRY MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NE SECTIONS SATURDAY...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE.

BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION DOES LOOK POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MAINLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL HAVE DECOUPLED./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  40  59  40 /  41  30   0   5
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  37 /  80  59   0   1
VICKSBURG     74  39  62  41 /  20  20   0   6
HATTIESBURG   75  45  64  41 /  81  55   0   4
NATCHEZ       73  41  63  43 /  28  20   0   2
GREENVILLE    71  38  58  39 /  20  14   0   8
GREENWOOD     73  37  57  37 /  26  21   2   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 270318 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1018 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT WAS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR
AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
UPDATED TEMPERATURE CURVES EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE FASTER
COOLING DUE TO THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA POISED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS IN OUR EAST UNTIL 3 AM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WAS IN VCTY OF HBG AT 03Z PRODUCING IFR
CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF OUR AREA BY
05Z BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...NW OF GLH AT 03Z WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. CLR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM TUP-HKS-HEZ...ALTHOUGH NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT. BLOCKING EFFECT FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF HAS ONLY ALLOWED WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S IN ADVANCE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...CLEARING OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

DRY MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NE SECTIONS SATURDAY...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE.

BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION DOES LOOK POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MAINLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL HAVE DECOUPLED./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  40  59  40 /  41  30   0   5
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  37 /  80  59   0   1
VICKSBURG     74  39  62  41 /  20  20   0   6
HATTIESBURG   75  45  64  41 /  81  55   0   4
NATCHEZ       73  41  63  43 /  28  20   0   2
GREENVILLE    71  38  58  39 /  20  14   0   8
GREENWOOD     73  37  57  37 /  26  21   2   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 270318 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1018 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT WAS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR
AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
UPDATED TEMPERATURE CURVES EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE FASTER
COOLING DUE TO THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA POISED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS IN OUR EAST UNTIL 3 AM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WAS IN VCTY OF HBG AT 03Z PRODUCING IFR
CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF OUR AREA BY
05Z BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...NW OF GLH AT 03Z WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. CLR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM TUP-HKS-HEZ...ALTHOUGH NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT. BLOCKING EFFECT FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF HAS ONLY ALLOWED WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S IN ADVANCE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...CLEARING OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

DRY MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NE SECTIONS SATURDAY...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE.

BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION DOES LOOK POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MAINLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL HAVE DECOUPLED./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  40  59  40 /  41  30   0   5
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  37 /  80  59   0   1
VICKSBURG     74  39  62  41 /  20  20   0   6
HATTIESBURG   75  45  64  41 /  81  55   0   4
NATCHEZ       73  41  63  43 /  28  20   0   2
GREENVILLE    71  38  58  39 /  20  14   0   8
GREENWOOD     73  37  57  37 /  26  21   2   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 270318 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1018 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT WAS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR
AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
UPDATED TEMPERATURE CURVES EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE FASTER
COOLING DUE TO THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA POISED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS IN OUR EAST UNTIL 3 AM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WAS IN VCTY OF HBG AT 03Z PRODUCING IFR
CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF OUR AREA BY
05Z BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...NW OF GLH AT 03Z WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. CLR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM TUP-HKS-HEZ...ALTHOUGH NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT. BLOCKING EFFECT FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF HAS ONLY ALLOWED WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S IN ADVANCE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...CLEARING OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

DRY MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NE SECTIONS SATURDAY...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE.

BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION DOES LOOK POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MAINLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL HAVE DECOUPLED./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  40  59  40 /  41  30   0   5
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  37 /  80  59   0   1
VICKSBURG     74  39  62  41 /  20  20   0   6
HATTIESBURG   75  45  64  41 /  81  55   0   4
NATCHEZ       73  41  63  43 /  28  20   0   2
GREENVILLE    71  38  58  39 /  20  14   0   8
GREENWOOD     73  37  57  37 /  26  21   2   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 270318 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1018 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT WAS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR
AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
UPDATED TEMPERATURE CURVES EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE FASTER
COOLING DUE TO THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA POISED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS IN OUR EAST UNTIL 3 AM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WAS IN VCTY OF HBG AT 03Z PRODUCING IFR
CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF OUR AREA BY
05Z BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...NW OF GLH AT 03Z WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. CLR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM TUP-HKS-HEZ...ALTHOUGH NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT. BLOCKING EFFECT FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF HAS ONLY ALLOWED WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S IN ADVANCE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...CLEARING OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

DRY MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NE SECTIONS SATURDAY...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE.

BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION DOES LOOK POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MAINLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL HAVE DECOUPLED./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  40  59  40 /  41  30   0   5
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  37 /  80  59   0   1
VICKSBURG     74  39  62  41 /  20  20   0   6
HATTIESBURG   75  45  64  41 /  81  55   0   4
NATCHEZ       73  41  63  43 /  28  20   0   2
GREENVILLE    71  38  58  39 /  20  14   0   8
GREENWOOD     73  37  57  37 /  26  21   2   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 270318 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1018 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT WAS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR
AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
UPDATED TEMPERATURE CURVES EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE FASTER
COOLING DUE TO THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA POISED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS IN OUR EAST UNTIL 3 AM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SO HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WAS IN VCTY OF HBG AT 03Z PRODUCING IFR
CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF OUR AREA BY
05Z BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...NW OF GLH AT 03Z WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS. CLR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM TUP-HKS-HEZ...ALTHOUGH NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT. BLOCKING EFFECT FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF HAS ONLY ALLOWED WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S IN ADVANCE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...CLEARING OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

DRY MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NE SECTIONS SATURDAY...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE.

BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION DOES LOOK POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MAINLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL HAVE DECOUPLED./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  40  59  40 /  41  30   0   5
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  37 /  80  59   0   1
VICKSBURG     74  39  62  41 /  20  20   0   6
HATTIESBURG   75  45  64  41 /  81  55   0   4
NATCHEZ       73  41  63  43 /  28  20   0   2
GREENVILLE    71  38  58  39 /  20  14   0   8
GREENWOOD     73  37  57  37 /  26  21   2   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 262048
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM TUP-HKS-HEZ...ALTHOUGH NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT. BLOCKING EFFECT FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF HAS ONLY ALLOWED WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S IN ADVANCE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...CLEARING OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

DRY MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NE SECTIONS SATURDAY...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE.

BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION DOES LOOK POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MAINLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL HAVE DECOUPLED./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS GENERALLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS TO GTR/HKS/JAN/MEI THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT HBG WHICH
MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING
OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS BEING
REPORTED AT GLH. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SKIES CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  59  40  64 /  36   0   5  11
MERIDIAN      41  60  37  61 /  59   0   1  19
VICKSBURG     39  62  41  66 /  20   0   6   4
HATTIESBURG   45  64  41  69 /  55   0   4   8
NATCHEZ       41  63  43  70 /  20   0   2   1
GREENVILLE    38  58  39  57 /  14   0   8  17
GREENWOOD     37  57  37  55 /  31   2   7  24

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 262048
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM TUP-HKS-HEZ...ALTHOUGH NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT. BLOCKING EFFECT FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF HAS ONLY ALLOWED WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S IN ADVANCE. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...CLEARING OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

DRY MID LEVEL NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NE SECTIONS SATURDAY...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO NO MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE.

BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION DOES LOOK POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MAINLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL HAVE DECOUPLED./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS GENERALLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS TO GTR/HKS/JAN/MEI THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT HBG WHICH
MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS ARE INCREASING
OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS BEING
REPORTED AT GLH. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SKIES CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  59  40  64 /  36   0   5  11
MERIDIAN      41  60  37  61 /  59   0   1  19
VICKSBURG     39  62  41  66 /  20   0   6   4
HATTIESBURG   45  64  41  69 /  55   0   4   8
NATCHEZ       41  63  43  70 /  20   0   2   1
GREENVILLE    38  58  39  57 /  14   0   8  17
GREENWOOD     37  57  37  55 /  31   2   7  24

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KJAN 261543 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1043 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...LARGE EXPANSE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST EFFECTIVELY SERVING TO CUT OFF NORTHERLY ADVECTION OF RICH
GULF MOISTURE. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AR INTO NW
LA AT THE MOMENT. OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER...ONLY A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING A NARROW WINDOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROBUST
CONVECTION OVER SE MS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AGREE THAT SE PORTIONS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BELIEVE HRRR
SOLUTION MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. HRRR DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
COASTAL CONVECTION VERY WELL AND AS A RESULT LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING
THE ADVANCEMENT OF RICH MOISTURE INLAND./26/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HBG/MEI WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE CONTINUED. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BECOME
VFR BY 16- 17Z...BUT A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA WITH
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15G20KT OUT OF NORTHWEST
AT GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON./15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES AND
SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING DYNAMICS
WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  39  59  40 /  67  37   6   2
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  39 /  51  55   9   1
VICKSBURG     71  39  61  42 /  73  25   3   2
HATTIESBURG   74  44  63  42 /  52  41   6   2
NATCHEZ       72  41  63  43 /  65  25   4   2
GREENVILLE    65  38  58  40 /  66  17   7   2
GREENWOOD     66  35  56  38 /  60  27   7   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 261543 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1043 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...LARGE EXPANSE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST EFFECTIVELY SERVING TO CUT OFF NORTHERLY ADVECTION OF RICH
GULF MOISTURE. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AR INTO NW
LA AT THE MOMENT. OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER...ONLY A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING A NARROW WINDOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROBUST
CONVECTION OVER SE MS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AGREE THAT SE PORTIONS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BELIEVE HRRR
SOLUTION MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. HRRR DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
COASTAL CONVECTION VERY WELL AND AS A RESULT LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING
THE ADVANCEMENT OF RICH MOISTURE INLAND./26/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HBG/MEI WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE CONTINUED. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BECOME
VFR BY 16- 17Z...BUT A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA WITH
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15G20KT OUT OF NORTHWEST
AT GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON./15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES AND
SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING DYNAMICS
WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  39  59  40 /  67  37   6   2
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  39 /  51  55   9   1
VICKSBURG     71  39  61  42 /  73  25   3   2
HATTIESBURG   74  44  63  42 /  52  41   6   2
NATCHEZ       72  41  63  43 /  65  25   4   2
GREENVILLE    65  38  58  40 /  66  17   7   2
GREENWOOD     66  35  56  38 /  60  27   7   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 261543 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1043 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...LARGE EXPANSE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST EFFECTIVELY SERVING TO CUT OFF NORTHERLY ADVECTION OF RICH
GULF MOISTURE. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AR INTO NW
LA AT THE MOMENT. OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER...ONLY A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING A NARROW WINDOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROBUST
CONVECTION OVER SE MS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AGREE THAT SE PORTIONS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BELIEVE HRRR
SOLUTION MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. HRRR DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
COASTAL CONVECTION VERY WELL AND AS A RESULT LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING
THE ADVANCEMENT OF RICH MOISTURE INLAND./26/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HBG/MEI WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE CONTINUED. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BECOME
VFR BY 16- 17Z...BUT A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA WITH
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15G20KT OUT OF NORTHWEST
AT GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON./15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES AND
SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING DYNAMICS
WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  39  59  40 /  67  37   6   2
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  39 /  51  55   9   1
VICKSBURG     71  39  61  42 /  73  25   3   2
HATTIESBURG   74  44  63  42 /  52  41   6   2
NATCHEZ       72  41  63  43 /  65  25   4   2
GREENVILLE    65  38  58  40 /  66  17   7   2
GREENWOOD     66  35  56  38 /  60  27   7   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 261543 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1043 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...LARGE EXPANSE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST EFFECTIVELY SERVING TO CUT OFF NORTHERLY ADVECTION OF RICH
GULF MOISTURE. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AR INTO NW
LA AT THE MOMENT. OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER...ONLY A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING A NARROW WINDOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROBUST
CONVECTION OVER SE MS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AGREE THAT SE PORTIONS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BELIEVE HRRR
SOLUTION MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. HRRR DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
COASTAL CONVECTION VERY WELL AND AS A RESULT LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING
THE ADVANCEMENT OF RICH MOISTURE INLAND./26/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HBG/MEI WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE CONTINUED. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BECOME
VFR BY 16- 17Z...BUT A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA WITH
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15G20KT OUT OF NORTHWEST
AT GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON./15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES AND
SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING DYNAMICS
WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  39  59  40 /  67  37   6   2
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  39 /  51  55   9   1
VICKSBURG     71  39  61  42 /  73  25   3   2
HATTIESBURG   74  44  63  42 /  52  41   6   2
NATCHEZ       72  41  63  43 /  65  25   4   2
GREENVILLE    65  38  58  40 /  66  17   7   2
GREENWOOD     66  35  56  38 /  60  27   7   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260826
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES
AND SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING
DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AT 08Z AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION.
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PSBL AT HBG AND MEI WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL BE PSBL IN DELTA BY 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WL SHIFT THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND EXPECT 15-20KT NW/N SFC FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT. SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS. SCT SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 03Z. AFTER THAT ONLY SOME
ISOLATED VCSH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 09Z. VFR CONDS WL RETURN
FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY./17/

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON     74  39  59  40  /  67  37 6  2
MERIDIAN    75  41  60  39  /  51  55 9  1
VICKSBURG   71  39  61  42  /  73  25 3  2
HATTIESBURG 74  44  63  42  /  52  41 6  2
NATCHEZ     72  41  63  43  /  65  25 7  2
GREENVILLE  65  38  58  40  /  66  17 7  2
GREENWOOD   66  35  56  38  /  60  27 7  2

&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260826
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES
AND SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING
DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AT 08Z AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION.
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PSBL AT HBG AND MEI WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL BE PSBL IN DELTA BY 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WL SHIFT THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND EXPECT 15-20KT NW/N SFC FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT. SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS. SCT SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 03Z. AFTER THAT ONLY SOME
ISOLATED VCSH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 09Z. VFR CONDS WL RETURN
FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY./17/

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON     74  39  59  40  /  67  37 6  2
MERIDIAN    75  41  60  39  /  51  55 9  1
VICKSBURG   71  39  61  42  /  73  25 3  2
HATTIESBURG 74  44  63  42  /  52  41 6  2
NATCHEZ     72  41  63  43  /  65  25 7  2
GREENVILLE  65  38  58  40  /  66  17 7  2
GREENWOOD   66  35  56  38  /  60  27 7  2

&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260826
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES
AND SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING
DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AT 08Z AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION.
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PSBL AT HBG AND MEI WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL BE PSBL IN DELTA BY 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WL SHIFT THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND EXPECT 15-20KT NW/N SFC FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT. SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS. SCT SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 03Z. AFTER THAT ONLY SOME
ISOLATED VCSH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 09Z. VFR CONDS WL RETURN
FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY./17/

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON     74  39  59  40  /  67  37 6  2
MERIDIAN    75  41  60  39  /  51  55 9  1
VICKSBURG   71  39  61  42  /  73  25 3  2
HATTIESBURG 74  44  63  42  /  52  41 6  2
NATCHEZ     72  41  63  43  /  65  25 7  2
GREENVILLE  65  38  58  40  /  66  17 7  2
GREENWOOD   66  35  56  38  /  60  27 7  2

&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260826
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES
AND SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING
DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AT 08Z AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION.
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PSBL AT HBG AND MEI WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL BE PSBL IN DELTA BY 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WL SHIFT THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND EXPECT 15-20KT NW/N SFC FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT. SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS. SCT SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 03Z. AFTER THAT ONLY SOME
ISOLATED VCSH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 09Z. VFR CONDS WL RETURN
FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY./17/

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON     74  39  59  40  /  67  37 6  2
MERIDIAN    75  41  60  39  /  51  55 9  1
VICKSBURG   71  39  61  42  /  73  25 3  2
HATTIESBURG 74  44  63  42  /  52  41 6  2
NATCHEZ     72  41  63  43  /  65  25 7  2
GREENVILLE  65  38  58  40  /  66  17 7  2
GREENWOOD   66  35  56  38  /  60  27 7  2

&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260826
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES
AND SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING
DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AT 08Z AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION.
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PSBL AT HBG AND MEI WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL BE PSBL IN DELTA BY 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WL SHIFT THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND EXPECT 15-20KT NW/N SFC FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT. SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS. SCT SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 03Z. AFTER THAT ONLY SOME
ISOLATED VCSH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 09Z. VFR CONDS WL RETURN
FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY./17/

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON     74  39  59  40  /  67  37 6  2
MERIDIAN    75  41  60  39  /  51  55 9  1
VICKSBURG   71  39  61  42  /  73  25 3  2
HATTIESBURG 74  44  63  42  /  52  41 6  2
NATCHEZ     72  41  63  43  /  65  25 7  2
GREENVILLE  65  38  58  40  /  66  17 7  2
GREENWOOD   66  35  56  38  /  60  27 7  2

&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260826
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES
AND SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING
DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AT 08Z AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION.
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PSBL AT HBG AND MEI WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL BE PSBL IN DELTA BY 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WL SHIFT THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND EXPECT 15-20KT NW/N SFC FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT. SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS. SCT SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 03Z. AFTER THAT ONLY SOME
ISOLATED VCSH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 09Z. VFR CONDS WL RETURN
FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY./17/

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON     74  39  59  40  /  67  37 6  2
MERIDIAN    75  41  60  39  /  51  55 9  1
VICKSBURG   71  39  61  42  /  73  25 3  2
HATTIESBURG 74  44  63  42  /  52  41 6  2
NATCHEZ     72  41  63  43  /  65  25 7  2
GREENVILLE  65  38  58  40  /  66  17 7  2
GREENWOOD   66  35  56  38  /  60  27 7  2

&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...PLENTY OF CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS BUT QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY EDGE INTO THE DELTA REGION BY SUNRISE BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR SE BY MORNING BUT THE
WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE MIXING MOST OF THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE...LENDING TO
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED OVER OUR DELTA THIS
EVENING BUT THE WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER MOVING TOWARDS THAT AREA
SO HAVE RAISED MORNING LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE DELTA. ELSEWHERE
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 08Z. AFTER 08Z STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION.
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PSBL AT HBG AND MEI WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL BE PSBL IN DELTA BY 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WL SHIFT THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND EXPECT 15-20KT NW/N SFC FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT. SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS. VFR CONDS WL RETURN FROM THE
NW THU EVENING. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY WAS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TO FOLLOW IT WILL BE A NICE
NIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAGS ALONG THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL AND THUS AGAIN THE REASON FOR
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT
OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE AREA...UP TO A HALF INCH AT THE MOST WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF INCH MOST LIKELY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE
PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A
BIT. /10/

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  72  39  61 /   3  67  32   4
MERIDIAN      57  75  42  61 /   6  51  54   2
VICKSBURG     58  70  39  64 /   4  73  22   2
HATTIESBURG   58  74  46  65 /   4  52  36   2
NATCHEZ       59  71  40  65 /   4  65  20   4
GREENVILLE    58  65  38  60 /  16  66  14  10
GREENWOOD     57  68  36  58 /   6  60  27   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/10/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...PLENTY OF CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS BUT QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY EDGE INTO THE DELTA REGION BY SUNRISE BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR SE BY MORNING BUT THE
WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE MIXING MOST OF THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE...LENDING TO
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED OVER OUR DELTA THIS
EVENING BUT THE WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER MOVING TOWARDS THAT AREA
SO HAVE RAISED MORNING LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE DELTA. ELSEWHERE
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 08Z. AFTER 08Z STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION.
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PSBL AT HBG AND MEI WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL BE PSBL IN DELTA BY 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WL SHIFT THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND EXPECT 15-20KT NW/N SFC FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT. SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS. VFR CONDS WL RETURN FROM THE
NW THU EVENING. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY WAS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TO FOLLOW IT WILL BE A NICE
NIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAGS ALONG THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL AND THUS AGAIN THE REASON FOR
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT
OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE AREA...UP TO A HALF INCH AT THE MOST WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF INCH MOST LIKELY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE
PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A
BIT. /10/

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  72  39  61 /   3  67  32   4
MERIDIAN      57  75  42  61 /   6  51  54   2
VICKSBURG     58  70  39  64 /   4  73  22   2
HATTIESBURG   58  74  46  65 /   4  52  36   2
NATCHEZ       59  71  40  65 /   4  65  20   4
GREENVILLE    58  65  38  60 /  16  66  14  10
GREENWOOD     57  68  36  58 /   6  60  27   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/10/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...PLENTY OF CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS BUT QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY EDGE INTO THE DELTA REGION BY SUNRISE BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR SE BY MORNING BUT THE
WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE MIXING MOST OF THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE...LENDING TO
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED OVER OUR DELTA THIS
EVENING BUT THE WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER MOVING TOWARDS THAT AREA
SO HAVE RAISED MORNING LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE DELTA. ELSEWHERE
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 08Z. AFTER 08Z STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION.
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PSBL AT HBG AND MEI WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL BE PSBL IN DELTA BY 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WL SHIFT THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND EXPECT 15-20KT NW/N SFC FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT. SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS. VFR CONDS WL RETURN FROM THE
NW THU EVENING. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY WAS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TO FOLLOW IT WILL BE A NICE
NIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAGS ALONG THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL AND THUS AGAIN THE REASON FOR
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT
OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE AREA...UP TO A HALF INCH AT THE MOST WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF INCH MOST LIKELY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE
PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A
BIT. /10/

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  72  39  61 /   3  67  32   4
MERIDIAN      57  75  42  61 /   6  51  54   2
VICKSBURG     58  70  39  64 /   4  73  22   2
HATTIESBURG   58  74  46  65 /   4  52  36   2
NATCHEZ       59  71  40  65 /   4  65  20   4
GREENVILLE    58  65  38  60 /  16  66  14  10
GREENWOOD     57  68  36  58 /   6  60  27   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/10/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...PLENTY OF CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS BUT QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY EDGE INTO THE DELTA REGION BY SUNRISE BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR SE BY MORNING BUT THE
WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE MIXING MOST OF THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE...LENDING TO
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED OVER OUR DELTA THIS
EVENING BUT THE WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER MOVING TOWARDS THAT AREA
SO HAVE RAISED MORNING LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE DELTA. ELSEWHERE
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 08Z. AFTER 08Z STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION.
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PSBL AT HBG AND MEI WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLD/SCT SHRA WL BE PSBL IN DELTA BY 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WL SHIFT THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND EXPECT 15-20KT NW/N SFC FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT. SCT TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTN WITH CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS. VFR CONDS WL RETURN FROM THE
NW THU EVENING. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY WAS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TO FOLLOW IT WILL BE A NICE
NIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAGS ALONG THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL AND THUS AGAIN THE REASON FOR
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT
OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE AREA...UP TO A HALF INCH AT THE MOST WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF INCH MOST LIKELY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE
PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A
BIT. /10/

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  72  39  61 /   3  67  32   4
MERIDIAN      57  75  42  61 /   6  51  54   2
VICKSBURG     58  70  39  64 /   4  73  22   2
HATTIESBURG   58  74  46  65 /   4  52  36   2
NATCHEZ       59  71  40  65 /   4  65  20   4
GREENVILLE    58  65  38  60 /  16  66  14  10
GREENWOOD     57  68  36  58 /   6  60  27   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/10/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 252104
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY WAS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TO FOLLOW IT WILL BE A NICE
NIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAGS ALONG THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL AND THUS AGAIN THE REASON FOR
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT
OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE AREA...UP TO A HALF INCH AT THE MOST WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF INCH MOST LIKELY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE
PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A
BIT. /10/

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCT/BKN CU. EXPECT THAT STRATUS WILL REFORM LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION. MODELS IMPLY THAT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE AT SE SITES WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. WENT IFR AT
KHBG AND KMEI LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. MODELS INDICATE THAT
AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE
COAST THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL FORM IN OK/AR LATER
TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES ARKLAMISS THU AM. COULD STILL BE
SOME SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA IN DELTA BY THU AM BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS. COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND
EXPECT 15-20 KT NW/N SFC FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  72  39  61 /   3  67  32   4
MERIDIAN      57  75  42  61 /   6  51  54   2
VICKSBURG     58  70  39  64 /   4  73  22   2
HATTIESBURG   58  74  46  65 /   4  52  36   2
NATCHEZ       59  71  40  65 /   4  65  20   4
GREENVILLE    57  65  38  60 /  16  66  14  10
GREENWOOD     57  68  36  58 /   6  60  27   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/17/AG/



000
FXUS64 KJAN 252104
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY WAS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TO FOLLOW IT WILL BE A NICE
NIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAGS ALONG THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL AND THUS AGAIN THE REASON FOR
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT
OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE AREA...UP TO A HALF INCH AT THE MOST WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF INCH MOST LIKELY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE
PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A
BIT. /10/

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCT/BKN CU. EXPECT THAT STRATUS WILL REFORM LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION. MODELS IMPLY THAT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE AT SE SITES WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. WENT IFR AT
KHBG AND KMEI LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. MODELS INDICATE THAT
AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE
COAST THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL FORM IN OK/AR LATER
TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES ARKLAMISS THU AM. COULD STILL BE
SOME SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA IN DELTA BY THU AM BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS. COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND
EXPECT 15-20 KT NW/N SFC FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  72  39  61 /   3  67  32   4
MERIDIAN      57  75  42  61 /   6  51  54   2
VICKSBURG     58  70  39  64 /   4  73  22   2
HATTIESBURG   58  74  46  65 /   4  52  36   2
NATCHEZ       59  71  40  65 /   4  65  20   4
GREENVILLE    57  65  38  60 /  16  66  14  10
GREENWOOD     57  68  36  58 /   6  60  27   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/17/AG/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 252104
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY WAS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TO FOLLOW IT WILL BE A NICE
NIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAGS ALONG THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL AND THUS AGAIN THE REASON FOR
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT
OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE AREA...UP TO A HALF INCH AT THE MOST WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF INCH MOST LIKELY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE
PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A
BIT. /10/

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCT/BKN CU. EXPECT THAT STRATUS WILL REFORM LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION. MODELS IMPLY THAT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE AT SE SITES WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. WENT IFR AT
KHBG AND KMEI LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. MODELS INDICATE THAT
AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE
COAST THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL FORM IN OK/AR LATER
TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES ARKLAMISS THU AM. COULD STILL BE
SOME SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA IN DELTA BY THU AM BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS. COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND
EXPECT 15-20 KT NW/N SFC FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  72  39  61 /   3  67  32   4
MERIDIAN      57  75  42  61 /   6  51  54   2
VICKSBURG     58  70  39  64 /   4  73  22   2
HATTIESBURG   58  74  46  65 /   4  52  36   2
NATCHEZ       59  71  40  65 /   4  65  20   4
GREENVILLE    57  65  38  60 /  16  66  14  10
GREENWOOD     57  68  36  58 /   6  60  27   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/17/AG/



000
FXUS64 KJAN 252104
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY WAS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TO FOLLOW IT WILL BE A NICE
NIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS
THE COLD FRONT DRAGS ALONG THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL AND THUS AGAIN THE REASON FOR
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT
OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE AREA...UP TO A HALF INCH AT THE MOST WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF INCH MOST LIKELY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE
PUSHED TO THE EAST BY 06Z.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
COLD FRONT...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE...AS WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR A
BIT. /10/

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCT/BKN CU. EXPECT THAT STRATUS WILL REFORM LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT MOVING ACROSS OK/AR REGION. MODELS IMPLY THAT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE AT SE SITES WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. WENT IFR AT
KHBG AND KMEI LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. MODELS INDICATE THAT
AS BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE
COAST THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL FORM IN OK/AR LATER
TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES ARKLAMISS THU AM. COULD STILL BE
SOME SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA IN DELTA BY THU AM BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS. COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH KGLH/KGWO BY 18Z AND
EXPECT 15-20 KT NW/N SFC FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  72  39  61 /   3  67  32   4
MERIDIAN      57  75  42  61 /   6  51  54   2
VICKSBURG     58  70  39  64 /   4  73  22   2
HATTIESBURG   58  74  46  65 /   4  52  36   2
NATCHEZ       59  71  40  65 /   4  65  20   4
GREENVILLE    57  65  38  60 /  16  66  14  10
GREENWOOD     57  68  36  58 /   6  60  27   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/17/AG/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 251507 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY`S TO MATCH THE
TRENDS BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. /10/

&&

.AVIATION... EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS STILL PRESENT CURRENTLY TO MIX
OUT INTO VFR WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. /10/EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND BRINGS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIGGER CONCERN THAN FOG AS
WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG CONFINED TO
THE PINE BELT REGION. RECENT AREA RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUPPORT KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUXTAPOSED BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A WELL-
CAPPED AIRMASS. BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...HAVE GONE A LITTLE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH STRATOCUMULUS COVERAGE...BUT STILL EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEG F WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
THURSDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN BUT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... WITH EXPLICIT
WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING PERHAPS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR SIGNS
OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. /EC/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       78  58  72  39 /   6   7  70  29
MERIDIAN      77  59  76  42 /  12   7  59  43
VICKSBURG     78  59  69  40 /   5   4  69  19
HATTIESBURG   78  59  76  44 /  12   7  63  34
NATCHEZ       76  60  71  41 /   5   4  70  26
GREENVILLE    76  57  65  39 /   5  17  62  14
GREENWOOD     78  58  67  37 /   5  10  61  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 251507 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY`S TO MATCH THE
TRENDS BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. /10/

&&

.AVIATION... EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS STILL PRESENT CURRENTLY TO MIX
OUT INTO VFR WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. /10/EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND BRINGS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIGGER CONCERN THAN FOG AS
WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG CONFINED TO
THE PINE BELT REGION. RECENT AREA RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUPPORT KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUXTAPOSED BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A WELL-
CAPPED AIRMASS. BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...HAVE GONE A LITTLE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH STRATOCUMULUS COVERAGE...BUT STILL EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEG F WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
THURSDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN BUT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... WITH EXPLICIT
WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING PERHAPS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR SIGNS
OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. /EC/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       78  58  72  39 /   6   7  70  29
MERIDIAN      77  59  76  42 /  12   7  59  43
VICKSBURG     78  59  69  40 /   5   4  69  19
HATTIESBURG   78  59  76  44 /  12   7  63  34
NATCHEZ       76  60  71  41 /   5   4  70  26
GREENVILLE    76  57  65  39 /   5  17  62  14
GREENWOOD     78  58  67  37 /   5  10  61  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 251507 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY`S TO MATCH THE
TRENDS BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. /10/

&&

.AVIATION... EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS STILL PRESENT CURRENTLY TO MIX
OUT INTO VFR WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. /10/EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND BRINGS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIGGER CONCERN THAN FOG AS
WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG CONFINED TO
THE PINE BELT REGION. RECENT AREA RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUPPORT KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUXTAPOSED BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A WELL-
CAPPED AIRMASS. BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...HAVE GONE A LITTLE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH STRATOCUMULUS COVERAGE...BUT STILL EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEG F WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
THURSDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN BUT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... WITH EXPLICIT
WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING PERHAPS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR SIGNS
OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. /EC/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       78  58  72  39 /   6   7  70  29
MERIDIAN      77  59  76  42 /  12   7  59  43
VICKSBURG     78  59  69  40 /   5   4  69  19
HATTIESBURG   78  59  76  44 /  12   7  63  34
NATCHEZ       76  60  71  41 /   5   4  70  26
GREENVILLE    76  57  65  39 /   5  17  62  14
GREENWOOD     78  58  67  37 /   5  10  61  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 251507 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY`S TO MATCH THE
TRENDS BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. /10/

&&

.AVIATION... EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS STILL PRESENT CURRENTLY TO MIX
OUT INTO VFR WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. /10/EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND BRINGS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIGGER CONCERN THAN FOG AS
WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG CONFINED TO
THE PINE BELT REGION. RECENT AREA RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUPPORT KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUXTAPOSED BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A WELL-
CAPPED AIRMASS. BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...HAVE GONE A LITTLE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH STRATOCUMULUS COVERAGE...BUT STILL EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEG F WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
THURSDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN BUT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... WITH EXPLICIT
WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING PERHAPS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR SIGNS
OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. /EC/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       78  58  72  39 /   6   7  70  29
MERIDIAN      77  59  76  42 /  12   7  59  43
VICKSBURG     78  59  69  40 /   5   4  69  19
HATTIESBURG   78  59  76  44 /  12   7  63  34
NATCHEZ       76  60  71  41 /   5   4  70  26
GREENVILLE    76  57  65  39 /   5  17  62  14
GREENWOOD     78  58  67  37 /   5  10  61  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 251507 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY`S TO MATCH THE
TRENDS BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. /10/

&&

.AVIATION... EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS STILL PRESENT CURRENTLY TO MIX
OUT INTO VFR WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. /10/EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND BRINGS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIGGER CONCERN THAN FOG AS
WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG CONFINED TO
THE PINE BELT REGION. RECENT AREA RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUPPORT KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUXTAPOSED BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A WELL-
CAPPED AIRMASS. BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...HAVE GONE A LITTLE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH STRATOCUMULUS COVERAGE...BUT STILL EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEG F WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
THURSDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN BUT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... WITH EXPLICIT
WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING PERHAPS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR SIGNS
OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. /EC/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       78  58  72  39 /   6   7  70  29
MERIDIAN      77  59  76  42 /  12   7  59  43
VICKSBURG     78  59  69  40 /   5   4  69  19
HATTIESBURG   78  59  76  44 /  12   7  63  34
NATCHEZ       76  60  71  41 /   5   4  70  26
GREENVILLE    76  57  65  39 /   5  17  62  14
GREENWOOD     78  58  67  37 /   5  10  61  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



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