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000
FXUS64 KJAN 222024
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TYPICAL EARLY FALL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MUCH DRIER AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW A HALF INCH
IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHERLY SUBSIDENT FLOW AS
INDICATED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MODELS AGREE THAT THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL AT NIGHT...SOME 5-10 DEG F BELOW DAILY CLIMATE
NORMALS...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN STILL SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE A
NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SLACKENING GRADUALLY TONIGHT. TOMORROW
ANTICIPATE NORTHEAST WINDS STILL UP TO 10 MPH AT TIMES. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      51  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   3
VICKSBURG     53  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   3
HATTIESBURG   57  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   3
NATCHEZ       57  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   3
GREENVILLE    54  81  57  86 /   0   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     53  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/DL/BB







000
FXUS64 KJAN 222024
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TYPICAL EARLY FALL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MUCH DRIER AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW A HALF INCH
IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHERLY SUBSIDENT FLOW AS
INDICATED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MODELS AGREE THAT THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL AT NIGHT...SOME 5-10 DEG F BELOW DAILY CLIMATE
NORMALS...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN STILL SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE A
NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SLACKENING GRADUALLY TONIGHT. TOMORROW
ANTICIPATE NORTHEAST WINDS STILL UP TO 10 MPH AT TIMES. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      51  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   3
VICKSBURG     53  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   3
HATTIESBURG   57  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   3
NATCHEZ       57  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   3
GREENVILLE    54  81  57  86 /   0   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     53  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/DL/BB






000
FXUS64 KJAN 221538 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...

ADDED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE ALL IS
ON TRACK WITH TYPICAL EARLY FALL WEATHER SETTLING OVER THE AREA. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SLACKENING GRADUALLY TONIGHT. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAD A COLD FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 20 IN OUR CWA WITH A 1024MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND HELP DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY SUNRISE AND PUSH SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 BY MID MORNING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
OUR CWA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW
POINTS WERE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GREENVILLE REPORTED
A DEW POINT OF 55F A 2AM. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OFFSET
INSOLATION AND HOLD MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLEST MORNING
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS
AND IN THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
MOVE BACK OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY RESULTING IN A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR CWA. THE DRY WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN NEAR
85F AND MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT
THAN THEY WILL TONIGHT BUT MOST SITES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. STARTING WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE
A NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 221538 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...

ADDED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE ALL IS
ON TRACK WITH TYPICAL EARLY FALL WEATHER SETTLING OVER THE AREA. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SLACKENING GRADUALLY TONIGHT. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAD A COLD FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 20 IN OUR CWA WITH A 1024MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND HELP DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY SUNRISE AND PUSH SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 BY MID MORNING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
OUR CWA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW
POINTS WERE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GREENVILLE REPORTED
A DEW POINT OF 55F A 2AM. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OFFSET
INSOLATION AND HOLD MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLEST MORNING
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS
AND IN THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
MOVE BACK OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY RESULTING IN A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR CWA. THE DRY WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN NEAR
85F AND MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT
THAN THEY WILL TONIGHT BUT MOST SITES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. STARTING WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE
A NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 221534
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...

ADDED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AHEAD WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING...AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS GUIDANCE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE ALL IS ON TRACK WITH TYPICAL EARLY FALL WEATHER SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SLACKENING GRADUALLY TONIGHT. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAD A COLD FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 20 IN OUR CWA WITH A 1024MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND HELP DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY SUNRISE AND PUSH SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 BY MID MORNING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
OUR CWA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW
POINTS WERE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GREENVILLE REPORTED
A DEW POINT OF 55F A 2AM. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OFFSET
INSOLATION AND HOLD MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLEST MORNING
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS
AND IN THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
MOVE BACK OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY RESULTING IN A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR CWA. THE DRY WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN NEAR
85F AND MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT
THAN THEY WILL TONIGHT BUT MOST SITES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. STARTING WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE
A NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 221534
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...

ADDED SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AHEAD WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING...AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS GUIDANCE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE ALL IS ON TRACK WITH TYPICAL EARLY FALL WEATHER SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SLACKENING GRADUALLY TONIGHT. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAD A COLD FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 20 IN OUR CWA WITH A 1024MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND HELP DRIVE THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY SUNRISE AND PUSH SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 BY MID MORNING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
OUR CWA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW
POINTS WERE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GREENVILLE REPORTED
A DEW POINT OF 55F A 2AM. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OFFSET
INSOLATION AND HOLD MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLEST MORNING
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS
AND IN THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
MOVE BACK OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY RESULTING IN A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR CWA. THE DRY WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN NEAR
85F AND MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT
THAN THEY WILL TONIGHT BUT MOST SITES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. STARTING WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE
A NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 220913
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EARLY MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 20 IN OUR CWA
WITH A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND HELP DRIVE
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY SUNRISE
AND PUSH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 BY MID MORNING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. DEW
POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS WERE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GREENVILLE REPORTED A DEW POINT OF 55F A 2AM. THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL OFFSET INSOLATION AND HOLD MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE COOLEST MORNING TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS
RUN IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND IN THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE BACK OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY RESULTING IN A
DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN NEAR 85F AND MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN THEY WILL TONIGHT BUT MOST SITES WILL
STILL DROP INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. STARTING WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE
A NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS NEARING I-20 AT 09Z. THE TSTMS MAY COME IN VCTY OF
MEI AND LATER HBG BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT HKS AND JAN. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE TSTMS THIS MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 17Z. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  54  84  59 /   6   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      86  50  83  57 /   6   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     85  51  83  55 /   5   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   88  57  87  59 /  14   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       86  54  81  59 /  13   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    82  55  81  57 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     82  52  82  57 /   2   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/DL/22









000
FXUS64 KJAN 220913
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EARLY MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 20 IN OUR CWA
WITH A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND HELP DRIVE
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY SUNRISE
AND PUSH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 BY MID MORNING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. DEW
POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS WERE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GREENVILLE REPORTED A DEW POINT OF 55F A 2AM. THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL OFFSET INSOLATION AND HOLD MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE COOLEST MORNING TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS
RUN IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND IN THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE BACK OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY RESULTING IN A
DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN NEAR 85F AND MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN THEY WILL TONIGHT BUT MOST SITES WILL
STILL DROP INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. STARTING WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE
A NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS NEARING I-20 AT 09Z. THE TSTMS MAY COME IN VCTY OF
MEI AND LATER HBG BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT HKS AND JAN. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE TSTMS THIS MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 17Z. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  54  84  59 /   6   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      86  50  83  57 /   6   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     85  51  83  55 /   5   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   88  57  87  59 /  14   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       86  54  81  59 /  13   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    82  55  81  57 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     82  52  82  57 /   2   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/DL/22









000
FXUS64 KJAN 220913
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EARLY MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 20 IN OUR CWA
WITH A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND HELP DRIVE
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY SUNRISE
AND PUSH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 BY MID MORNING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. DEW
POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS WERE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GREENVILLE REPORTED A DEW POINT OF 55F A 2AM. THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL OFFSET INSOLATION AND HOLD MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE COOLEST MORNING TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS
RUN IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND IN THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE BACK OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY RESULTING IN A
DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN NEAR 85F AND MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN THEY WILL TONIGHT BUT MOST SITES WILL
STILL DROP INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. STARTING WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE
A NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS NEARING I-20 AT 09Z. THE TSTMS MAY COME IN VCTY OF
MEI AND LATER HBG BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT HKS AND JAN. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE TSTMS THIS MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 17Z. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  54  84  59 /   6   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      86  50  83  57 /   6   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     85  51  83  55 /   5   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   88  57  87  59 /  14   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       86  54  81  59 /  13   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    82  55  81  57 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     82  52  82  57 /   2   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/DL/22









000
FXUS64 KJAN 220913
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EARLY MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 20 IN OUR CWA
WITH A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND HELP DRIVE
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY SUNRISE
AND PUSH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 BY MID MORNING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. DEW
POINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS WERE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GREENVILLE REPORTED A DEW POINT OF 55F A 2AM. THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL OFFSET INSOLATION AND HOLD MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE COOLEST MORNING TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS
RUN IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND IN THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE BACK OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY RESULTING IN A
DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN NEAR 85F AND MOST SITES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN THEY WILL TONIGHT BUT MOST SITES WILL
STILL DROP INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. STARTING WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE
A NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS NEARING I-20 AT 09Z. THE TSTMS MAY COME IN VCTY OF
MEI AND LATER HBG BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT HKS AND JAN. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE TSTMS THIS MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 17Z. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  54  84  59 /   6   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      86  50  83  57 /   6   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     85  51  83  55 /   5   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   88  57  87  59 /  14   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       86  54  81  59 /  13   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    82  55  81  57 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     82  52  82  57 /   2   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/DL/22









000
FXUS64 KJAN 220202 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING.
/27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE
GLH-GWO-GTR CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE
BREEZES BECOMING GUSTY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT NOW RESIDES ALONG AN EAST NORTHEAST TO
WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE FROM NEAR JACKSON TENNESSEE TO MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE TO LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS AND TO MENA ARKANSAS.  THANKS IN
LARGE PART TO SUPPRESSION FROM RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD TREK...MAKING IT INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN`T BE
RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  MAV
GUIDANCE WAS QUITE DRY AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...AND IN LARGE PART I
AGREE WITH THIS.  HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...I DID INCREASE POPS TONIGHT JUST ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THEM IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DAY OF TRANSITION IN AIRMASSES ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS.  WITH THE FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INCREASED
NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY AND JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF FALL MONDAY EVENING
AT 0229Z. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...LOOK
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
MONDAY`S COLD FRONT...A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL
RESIDE OVER THE CWA. A LARGE 1027MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR REGION. NORMAL HIGHS RUN NEAR 85 DEGREES
TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS... AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST
SITES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE AS
COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING. STILL...MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT PWS WILL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AREAWIDE
NEXT SATURDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  85  53  84 /  15   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  85  50  85 /  15   4   0   0
VICKSBURG     61  85  52  85 /  15   4   0   0
HATTIESBURG   67  89  54  87 /  15   8   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  84  53  81 /  15   4   0   0
GREENVILLE    59  81  53  83 /  15   1   0   0
GREENWOOD     59  81  51  83 /  15   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 220202 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING.
/27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE
GLH-GWO-GTR CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE
BREEZES BECOMING GUSTY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT NOW RESIDES ALONG AN EAST NORTHEAST TO
WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE FROM NEAR JACKSON TENNESSEE TO MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE TO LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS AND TO MENA ARKANSAS.  THANKS IN
LARGE PART TO SUPPRESSION FROM RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD TREK...MAKING IT INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN`T BE
RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  MAV
GUIDANCE WAS QUITE DRY AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...AND IN LARGE PART I
AGREE WITH THIS.  HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...I DID INCREASE POPS TONIGHT JUST ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THEM IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DAY OF TRANSITION IN AIRMASSES ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS.  WITH THE FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INCREASED
NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY AND JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF FALL MONDAY EVENING
AT 0229Z. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...LOOK
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
MONDAY`S COLD FRONT...A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL
RESIDE OVER THE CWA. A LARGE 1027MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR REGION. NORMAL HIGHS RUN NEAR 85 DEGREES
TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS... AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST
SITES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE AS
COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING. STILL...MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT PWS WILL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AREAWIDE
NEXT SATURDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  85  53  84 /  15   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  85  50  85 /  15   4   0   0
VICKSBURG     61  85  52  85 /  15   4   0   0
HATTIESBURG   67  89  54  87 /  15   8   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  84  53  81 /  15   4   0   0
GREENVILLE    59  81  53  83 /  15   1   0   0
GREENWOOD     59  81  51  83 /  15   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 212037
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT NOW RESIDES ALONG AN EAST NORTHEAST TO
WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE FROM NEAR JACKSON TENNESSEE TO MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE TO LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS AND TO MENA ARKANSAS.  THANKS IN
LARGE PART TO SUPPRESSION FROM RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD TREK...MAKING IT INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN`T BE
RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  MAV
GUIDANCE WAS QUITE DRY AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...AND IN LARGE PART I
AGREE WITH THIS.  HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...I DID INCREASE POPS TONIGHT JUST ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THEM IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DAY OF TRANSITION IN AIRMASSES ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS.  WITH THE FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INCREASED
NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY AND JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF FALL MONDAY EVENING
AT 0229Z. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...LOOK
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
MONDAY`S COLD FRONT...A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL
RESIDE OVER THE CWA. A LARGE 1027MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR REGION. NORMAL HIGHS RUN NEAR 85 DEGREES
TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS... AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST
SITES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE AS
COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING. STILL...MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT PWS WILL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AREAWIDE
NEXT SATURDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND ISO/SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED WITH BEST
COVERAGE NEAR KGLH/KGWO/KGTR. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THOSE RESPECTIVE
TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR FOR DIRECT INCLUSION IF NEEDED AFTER
00Z AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER OVERNIGHT TOWARDS KJAN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR ISSUES AROUND HBG FROM 10-14Z...AFTER
WHICH WILL LIFT TO VFR. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  85  53  84 /  15   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  85  50  85 /  15   4   0   0
VICKSBURG     61  85  52  85 /  15   4   0   0
HATTIESBURG   67  89  54  87 /  15   8   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  84  53  81 /  15   4   0   0
GREENVILLE    59  81  53  83 /  15   1   0   0
GREENWOOD     59  81  51  83 /  15   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 212037
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT NOW RESIDES ALONG AN EAST NORTHEAST TO
WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE FROM NEAR JACKSON TENNESSEE TO MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE TO LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS AND TO MENA ARKANSAS.  THANKS IN
LARGE PART TO SUPPRESSION FROM RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD TREK...MAKING IT INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN`T BE
RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  MAV
GUIDANCE WAS QUITE DRY AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...AND IN LARGE PART I
AGREE WITH THIS.  HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...I DID INCREASE POPS TONIGHT JUST ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THEM IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DAY OF TRANSITION IN AIRMASSES ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS.  WITH THE FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INCREASED
NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY AND JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF FALL MONDAY EVENING
AT 0229Z. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...LOOK
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
MONDAY`S COLD FRONT...A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL
RESIDE OVER THE CWA. A LARGE 1027MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR REGION. NORMAL HIGHS RUN NEAR 85 DEGREES
TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS... AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST
SITES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE AS
COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING. STILL...MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT PWS WILL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AREAWIDE
NEXT SATURDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND ISO/SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED WITH BEST
COVERAGE NEAR KGLH/KGWO/KGTR. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THOSE RESPECTIVE
TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR FOR DIRECT INCLUSION IF NEEDED AFTER
00Z AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER OVERNIGHT TOWARDS KJAN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR ISSUES AROUND HBG FROM 10-14Z...AFTER
WHICH WILL LIFT TO VFR. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  85  53  84 /  15   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  85  50  85 /  15   4   0   0
VICKSBURG     61  85  52  85 /  15   4   0   0
HATTIESBURG   67  89  54  87 /  15   8   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  84  53  81 /  15   4   0   0
GREENVILLE    59  81  53  83 /  15   1   0   0
GREENWOOD     59  81  51  83 /  15   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/17






000
FXUS64 KJAN 211530 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-
SOUTH REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK AND
EVENTUALLY ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES INTO
AND THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THEN..LOOK
FOR CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 90S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY THANKS TO WARMING AND THE APPROACHING FRONT.
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY LOOK TO EXIST OVER LOCALES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AS A RESULT OF
CURRENT TRENDS...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO MAJOR
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
ISO/SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH BEST COVERAGE NEAR
KGLH/KGWO/KGTR. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THOSE RESPECTIVE TAFS FOR NOW
AND WILL MONITOR FOR DIRECT INCLUSION IF NEEDED AFTER 00Z AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS KJAN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT OUT FOR
NOW. /17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ONE LAST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A COOL FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY BRINGING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE/SCOPE WILL BE
LIMITED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. THIS FRONT WON`T REACH THE REGION
UNTIL THIS EVENING, LEAVING ONE MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY.
GIVEN OVERALL RAW MODEL SUITE OF 925MB TEMPS AND PROGGED BUFR
SOUNDINGS FEEL MAVMOS MAY BE 1-2F WARM AND BLENDED IT WITH COOLER
MET GUIDANCE. STILL, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 4-7F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
REACHING INTO THE 90-93F RANGE. BASED ON THESE TEMPS AND RESULTING
INSTABILITY IN NW DELTA WHERE SLIGHT MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE PLACED 15-20% POPS FOR THIS AREA WHICH WAS ABOVE
MAVMOS BUT IN-LINE WITH HI-RES AND SSEO OUTPUT THAT DID WELL WITH
YESTERDAY`S DELTA ACTIVITY.

THE ISO/SCT INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
EVENING BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS HWY 82 CORRIDOR 7-9PM TONIGHT. WILL
CARRY THUNDER WORDING TILL 11PM AND CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS
THEREAFTER. AGAIN, GIVEN LATE TIMING OF FRONT WITH RESPECT TO
OVERALL POOR THERMO ENVIRONMENT, NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG I-20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY ALONG HWY 84 CORRIDOR.

FOR MONDAY MORNING, DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S FOR THE
NORTH 1/3RD BUT RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WINDS DUE TO PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP FROM FULL POTENTIAL AND WERE MASSAGED UP
TO UPPER 50S TO 60. AS WEAK INVERSION BREAKS MONDAY MORNING AND
MIXING INCREASES, SURFACE WINDS COULD PICK UP QUICKLY TO 15-20 MPH
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. THIS NORTH WIND MIXING DOWN IN COMBO WITH
CAA OF 925MB TEMPS OF 16C NORTH TO 21C SOUTH WILL ONLY SUPPORT SFC
TEMPS IN THE 80-86F RANGE NORTH TO SOUTH. REGION WILL BE CLOUD FREE
MONDAY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AS PWATS FALL NEAR 0.5". TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS LOW 50S NORTH TO
MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. /ALLEN/

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S COLD FRONT...A DRY AIRMASS
WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL RESIDE OVER THE CWA. A LARGE 1027MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR REGION. NORMAL
HIGHS RUN NEAR 85 DEGREES TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS... AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORMAL LOWS ARE
NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING. STILL...MOST SITES WILL
BOTTOM OUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT PWS WILL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  64  84  55 /  10  16   4   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  85  52 /   9  16   7   0
VICKSBURG     92  62  83  53 /  10  16   3   0
HATTIESBURG   92  68  86  57 /   7  16  14   0
NATCHEZ       91  68  84  57 /   7  16   8   0
GREENVILLE    92  61  81  52 /  23  20   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  60  81  52 /  23  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 211530 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-
SOUTH REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK AND
EVENTUALLY ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES INTO
AND THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THEN..LOOK
FOR CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 90S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY THANKS TO WARMING AND THE APPROACHING FRONT.
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY LOOK TO EXIST OVER LOCALES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AS A RESULT OF
CURRENT TRENDS...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO MAJOR
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
ISO/SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH BEST COVERAGE NEAR
KGLH/KGWO/KGTR. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THOSE RESPECTIVE TAFS FOR NOW
AND WILL MONITOR FOR DIRECT INCLUSION IF NEEDED AFTER 00Z AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS KJAN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT OUT FOR
NOW. /17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ONE LAST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A COOL FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY BRINGING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE/SCOPE WILL BE
LIMITED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. THIS FRONT WON`T REACH THE REGION
UNTIL THIS EVENING, LEAVING ONE MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY.
GIVEN OVERALL RAW MODEL SUITE OF 925MB TEMPS AND PROGGED BUFR
SOUNDINGS FEEL MAVMOS MAY BE 1-2F WARM AND BLENDED IT WITH COOLER
MET GUIDANCE. STILL, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 4-7F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
REACHING INTO THE 90-93F RANGE. BASED ON THESE TEMPS AND RESULTING
INSTABILITY IN NW DELTA WHERE SLIGHT MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE PLACED 15-20% POPS FOR THIS AREA WHICH WAS ABOVE
MAVMOS BUT IN-LINE WITH HI-RES AND SSEO OUTPUT THAT DID WELL WITH
YESTERDAY`S DELTA ACTIVITY.

THE ISO/SCT INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
EVENING BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS HWY 82 CORRIDOR 7-9PM TONIGHT. WILL
CARRY THUNDER WORDING TILL 11PM AND CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS
THEREAFTER. AGAIN, GIVEN LATE TIMING OF FRONT WITH RESPECT TO
OVERALL POOR THERMO ENVIRONMENT, NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG I-20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY ALONG HWY 84 CORRIDOR.

FOR MONDAY MORNING, DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S FOR THE
NORTH 1/3RD BUT RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WINDS DUE TO PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP FROM FULL POTENTIAL AND WERE MASSAGED UP
TO UPPER 50S TO 60. AS WEAK INVERSION BREAKS MONDAY MORNING AND
MIXING INCREASES, SURFACE WINDS COULD PICK UP QUICKLY TO 15-20 MPH
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. THIS NORTH WIND MIXING DOWN IN COMBO WITH
CAA OF 925MB TEMPS OF 16C NORTH TO 21C SOUTH WILL ONLY SUPPORT SFC
TEMPS IN THE 80-86F RANGE NORTH TO SOUTH. REGION WILL BE CLOUD FREE
MONDAY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AS PWATS FALL NEAR 0.5". TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS LOW 50S NORTH TO
MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. /ALLEN/

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S COLD FRONT...A DRY AIRMASS
WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL RESIDE OVER THE CWA. A LARGE 1027MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR REGION. NORMAL
HIGHS RUN NEAR 85 DEGREES TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS... AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORMAL LOWS ARE
NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING. STILL...MOST SITES WILL
BOTTOM OUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT PWS WILL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  64  84  55 /  10  16   4   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  85  52 /   9  16   7   0
VICKSBURG     92  62  83  53 /  10  16   3   0
HATTIESBURG   92  68  86  57 /   7  16  14   0
NATCHEZ       91  68  84  57 /   7  16   8   0
GREENVILLE    92  61  81  52 /  23  20   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  60  81  52 /  23  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/17






000
FXUS64 KJAN 210909
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
409 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

ONE LAST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A COOL FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY BRINGING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE/SCOPE WILL BE
LIMITED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. THIS FRONT WON`T REACH THE REGION
UNTIL THIS EVENING, LEAVING ONE MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY.
GIVEN OVERALL RAW MODEL SUITE OF 925MB TEMPS AND PROGGED BUFR
SOUNDINGS FEEL MAVMOS MAY BE 1-2F WARM AND BLENDED IT WITH COOLER
MET GUIDANCE. STILL, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 4-7F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
REACHING INTO THE 90-93F RANGE. BASED ON THESE TEMPS AND RESULTING
INSTABILITY IN NW DELTA WHERE SLIGHT MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE PLACED 15-20% POPS FOR THIS AREA WHICH WAS ABOVE
MAVMOS BUT IN-LINE WITH HI-RES AND SSEO OUTPUT THAT DID WELL WITH
YESTERDAY`S DELTA ACTIVITY.

THE ISO/SCT INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
EVENING BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS HWY 82 CORRIDOR 7-9PM TONIGHT. WILL
CARRY THUNDER WORDING TILL 11PM AND CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS
THEREAFTER. AGAIN, GIVEN LATE TIMING OF FRONT WITH RESPECT TO
OVERALL POOR THERMO ENVIRONMENT, NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG I-20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY ALONG HWY 84 CORRIDOR.

FOR MONDAY MORNING, DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S FOR THE
NORTH 1/3RD BUT RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WINDS DUE TO PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP FROM FULL POTENTIAL AND WERE MASSAGED UP
TO UPPER 50S TO 60. AS WEAK INVERSION BREAKS MONDAY MORNING AND
MIXING INCREASES, SURFACE WINDS COULD PICK UP QUICKLY TO 15-20 MPH
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. THIS NORTH WIND MIXING DOWN IN COMBO WITH
CAA OF 925MB TEMPS OF 16C NORTH TO 21C SOUTH WILL ONLY SUPPORT SFC
TEMPS IN THE 80-86F RANGE NORTH TO SOUTH. REGION WILL BE CLOUD FREE
MONDAY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AS PWATS FALL NEAR 0.5". TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS LOW 50S NORTH TO
MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. /ALLEN/

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S COLD FRONT...A DRY AIRMASS
WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL RESIDE OVER THE CWA. A LARGE 1027MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR REGION. NORMAL
HIGHS RUN NEAR 85 DEGREES TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS... AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORMAL LOWS ARE
NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING. STILL...MOST SITES WILL
BOTTOM OUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT PWS WILL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OUTSIDE VERY SPORADIC MVFR GROUND FOG POSSIBILITIES FOR KHBG
THROUGH 13-14Z. A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND ISO/SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH BEST COVERAGE NEAR
KGLH/KGWO/KGTR. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THOSE RESPECTIVE TAFS FOR NOW AND
WILL MONITOR FOR DIRECT INCLUSION IF NEEDED AFTER 00Z AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS KJAN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  64  84  55 /  10  16   4   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  85  52 /   9  16   7   0
VICKSBURG     92  62  83  53 /  10  16   3   0
HATTIESBURG   92  68  86  57 /   7  16  14   0
NATCHEZ       91  68  84  57 /   7  16   8   0
GREENVILLE    92  61  81  52 /  23  20   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  60  81  52 /  23  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22






000
FXUS64 KJAN 210909
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
409 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

ONE LAST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A COOL FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY BRINGING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE/SCOPE WILL BE
LIMITED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. THIS FRONT WON`T REACH THE REGION
UNTIL THIS EVENING, LEAVING ONE MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY.
GIVEN OVERALL RAW MODEL SUITE OF 925MB TEMPS AND PROGGED BUFR
SOUNDINGS FEEL MAVMOS MAY BE 1-2F WARM AND BLENDED IT WITH COOLER
MET GUIDANCE. STILL, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 4-7F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
REACHING INTO THE 90-93F RANGE. BASED ON THESE TEMPS AND RESULTING
INSTABILITY IN NW DELTA WHERE SLIGHT MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE PLACED 15-20% POPS FOR THIS AREA WHICH WAS ABOVE
MAVMOS BUT IN-LINE WITH HI-RES AND SSEO OUTPUT THAT DID WELL WITH
YESTERDAY`S DELTA ACTIVITY.

THE ISO/SCT INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
EVENING BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS HWY 82 CORRIDOR 7-9PM TONIGHT. WILL
CARRY THUNDER WORDING TILL 11PM AND CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS
THEREAFTER. AGAIN, GIVEN LATE TIMING OF FRONT WITH RESPECT TO
OVERALL POOR THERMO ENVIRONMENT, NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG I-20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY ALONG HWY 84 CORRIDOR.

FOR MONDAY MORNING, DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S FOR THE
NORTH 1/3RD BUT RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WINDS DUE TO PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP FROM FULL POTENTIAL AND WERE MASSAGED UP
TO UPPER 50S TO 60. AS WEAK INVERSION BREAKS MONDAY MORNING AND
MIXING INCREASES, SURFACE WINDS COULD PICK UP QUICKLY TO 15-20 MPH
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. THIS NORTH WIND MIXING DOWN IN COMBO WITH
CAA OF 925MB TEMPS OF 16C NORTH TO 21C SOUTH WILL ONLY SUPPORT SFC
TEMPS IN THE 80-86F RANGE NORTH TO SOUTH. REGION WILL BE CLOUD FREE
MONDAY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AS PWATS FALL NEAR 0.5". TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS LOW 50S NORTH TO
MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. /ALLEN/

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S COLD FRONT...A DRY AIRMASS
WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL RESIDE OVER THE CWA. A LARGE 1027MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR REGION. NORMAL
HIGHS RUN NEAR 85 DEGREES TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS... AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORMAL LOWS ARE
NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING. STILL...MOST SITES WILL
BOTTOM OUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT PWS WILL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OUTSIDE VERY SPORADIC MVFR GROUND FOG POSSIBILITIES FOR KHBG
THROUGH 13-14Z. A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND ISO/SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH BEST COVERAGE NEAR
KGLH/KGWO/KGTR. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THOSE RESPECTIVE TAFS FOR NOW AND
WILL MONITOR FOR DIRECT INCLUSION IF NEEDED AFTER 00Z AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS KJAN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  64  84  55 /  10  16   4   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  85  52 /   9  16   7   0
VICKSBURG     92  62  83  53 /  10  16   3   0
HATTIESBURG   92  68  86  57 /   7  16  14   0
NATCHEZ       91  68  84  57 /   7  16   8   0
GREENVILLE    92  61  81  52 /  23  20   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  60  81  52 /  23  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 210150 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
850 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING.
/27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WERE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ADDED A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST...ADDED BUFFER ZONE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NATCHEZ
TRACE. ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH/AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO KENTUCKY...WHERE AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED. ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. EXPECTING A FEW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THERE
WAS SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...SO LOWS MAY NOT BE AS COOL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE BOUNDARY WAS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING A SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOL
AIR. WENT WITH THE SLOWER/DRIER GFS SOLUTION...SO THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO WARM UP TOMORROW. LOOKS LIKE LOWER 90S EVERYWHERE...MAYBE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FRONT SEEMS TO MOVE IN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z. STARTED THE RAIN IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUED IT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH OVER THE
CWA. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DECIDED
TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS
LIKE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER MONDAY AND LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE AREA IT WILL BE A DRY WEEK
WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  92  65  85 /   4   1  16   9
MERIDIAN      60  92  64  88 /   4   1  16  10
VICKSBURG     62  94  63  88 /   4   1  16   8
HATTIESBURG   65  93  68  91 /   4   1  16  20
NATCHEZ       65  91  66  86 /   3   2  16  16
GREENVILLE    66  93  61  83 /   4   2  15   4
GREENWOOD     65  93  61  83 /   4   3  15   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 210150 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
850 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING.
/27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WERE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ADDED A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST...ADDED BUFFER ZONE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NATCHEZ
TRACE. ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH/AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO KENTUCKY...WHERE AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED. ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. EXPECTING A FEW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THERE
WAS SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...SO LOWS MAY NOT BE AS COOL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE BOUNDARY WAS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING A SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOL
AIR. WENT WITH THE SLOWER/DRIER GFS SOLUTION...SO THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO WARM UP TOMORROW. LOOKS LIKE LOWER 90S EVERYWHERE...MAYBE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FRONT SEEMS TO MOVE IN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z. STARTED THE RAIN IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUED IT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH OVER THE
CWA. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DECIDED
TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS
LIKE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER MONDAY AND LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE AREA IT WILL BE A DRY WEEK
WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  92  65  85 /   4   1  16   9
MERIDIAN      60  92  64  88 /   4   1  16  10
VICKSBURG     62  94  63  88 /   4   1  16   8
HATTIESBURG   65  93  68  91 /   4   1  16  20
NATCHEZ       65  91  66  86 /   3   2  16  16
GREENVILLE    66  93  61  83 /   4   2  15   4
GREENWOOD     65  93  61  83 /   4   3  15   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 210150 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
850 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING.
/27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WERE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ADDED A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST...ADDED BUFFER ZONE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NATCHEZ
TRACE. ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH/AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO KENTUCKY...WHERE AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED. ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. EXPECTING A FEW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THERE
WAS SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...SO LOWS MAY NOT BE AS COOL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE BOUNDARY WAS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING A SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOL
AIR. WENT WITH THE SLOWER/DRIER GFS SOLUTION...SO THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO WARM UP TOMORROW. LOOKS LIKE LOWER 90S EVERYWHERE...MAYBE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FRONT SEEMS TO MOVE IN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z. STARTED THE RAIN IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUED IT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH OVER THE
CWA. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DECIDED
TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS
LIKE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER MONDAY AND LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE AREA IT WILL BE A DRY WEEK
WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  92  65  85 /   4   1  16   9
MERIDIAN      60  92  64  88 /   4   1  16  10
VICKSBURG     62  94  63  88 /   4   1  16   8
HATTIESBURG   65  93  68  91 /   4   1  16  20
NATCHEZ       65  91  66  86 /   3   2  16  16
GREENVILLE    66  93  61  83 /   4   2  15   4
GREENWOOD     65  93  61  83 /   4   3  15   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 210150 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
850 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING.
/27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WERE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ADDED A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST...ADDED BUFFER ZONE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NATCHEZ
TRACE. ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH/AXIS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO KENTUCKY...WHERE AN AREA OF CLOUDS WAS LOCATED. ONCE
THE SUN GOES DOWN THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. EXPECTING A FEW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THERE
WAS SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...SO LOWS MAY NOT BE AS COOL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE BOUNDARY WAS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING A SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOL
AIR. WENT WITH THE SLOWER/DRIER GFS SOLUTION...SO THE AREA WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO WARM UP TOMORROW. LOOKS LIKE LOWER 90S EVERYWHERE...MAYBE
WARMER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FRONT SEEMS TO MOVE IN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z. STARTED THE RAIN IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUED IT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH OVER THE
CWA. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DECIDED
TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS
LIKE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER MONDAY AND LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW. IT
LOOKS LIKE ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE AREA IT WILL BE A DRY WEEK
WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  92  65  85 /   4   1  16   9
MERIDIAN      60  92  64  88 /   4   1  16  10
VICKSBURG     62  94  63  88 /   4   1  16   8
HATTIESBURG   65  93  68  91 /   4   1  16  20
NATCHEZ       65  91  66  86 /   3   2  16  16
GREENVILLE    66  93  61  83 /   4   2  15   4
GREENWOOD     65  93  61  83 /   4   3  15   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








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