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000
FXUS64 KJAN 291536 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1036 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER TO NEAR 0-5% AND REMOVED LIGHT
SPRINKLE WORDING FOR TODAY.

.DISCUSSION...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR 50-60% OF NORMAL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS PAVING THE WAY FOR A COMFORTABLE LATE JULY DAY
WITH CURRENT READINGS AS OF 10AM IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH A COUPLE
SPORADIC 90F DEGREE READINGS TOWARDS THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. A WEAK
SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS N MS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD COULD HELP INITIATE SOME VERY SHALLOW ISOLATED SPRINKLES
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER, 12Z KJAN SOUNDING INDICATES DECENT CAPPING NEAR
6-8 KFT AND SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE.
THUS, REMOVED LIGHT SPRINKLE WORDING FOR TODAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR 95 PERCENT OF THE TAF PERIOD AS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY ISSUES THAT MAY ARISE WILL BE IN
THE MORNING WHERE SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
10-13Z. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA AND DRY/COOL AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. SOME CU NOTED IN IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER FAR N MS
AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES WITH
THESE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LIMITED HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS NOT MAKING
OUT OF THE 80S OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AND AROUND 90
ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...BUT AT THE MOMENT THE RESULTING CIRRUS LOOKS TO BE
THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS...THEREFORE...
LOOK PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. CURRENT RECORDS... SOME LONG
STANDING...ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES LOOK TO EASILY BE
BROKEN IN THE EAST WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED. RECORDS IN THE WEST
WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO BREAK WITH EXPECTED MINS AROUND 60.

APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASING/THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE NW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 310K THETA INCREASES.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDER AT THE ONSET AS LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER AND SHOWALTERS WELL ABOVE ZERO./26/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL PULL EAST OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RAINFALL WILL RETURN
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY THIS WEEKEND. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  60  87  66 /   5   2   5  13
MERIDIAN      89  57  87  62 /   5   2   5  10
VICKSBURG     88  59  87  64 /   5   2   5  19
HATTIESBURG   91  64  89  65 /   5   2   2   6
NATCHEZ       87  61  86  66 /   5   2   2  11
GREENVILLE    85  60  85  65 /   5   2  13  32
GREENWOOD     85  56  84  63 /   5   2   8  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/CME/26/SW






000
FXUS64 KJAN 291536 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1036 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER TO NEAR 0-5% AND REMOVED LIGHT
SPRINKLE WORDING FOR TODAY.

.DISCUSSION...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR 50-60% OF NORMAL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS PAVING THE WAY FOR A COMFORTABLE LATE JULY DAY
WITH CURRENT READINGS AS OF 10AM IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH A COUPLE
SPORADIC 90F DEGREE READINGS TOWARDS THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. A WEAK
SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS N MS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD COULD HELP INITIATE SOME VERY SHALLOW ISOLATED SPRINKLES
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER, 12Z KJAN SOUNDING INDICATES DECENT CAPPING NEAR
6-8 KFT AND SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE.
THUS, REMOVED LIGHT SPRINKLE WORDING FOR TODAY.

UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR 95 PERCENT OF THE TAF PERIOD AS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY ISSUES THAT MAY ARISE WILL BE IN
THE MORNING WHERE SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
10-13Z. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA AND DRY/COOL AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. SOME CU NOTED IN IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER FAR N MS
AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES WITH
THESE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LIMITED HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS NOT MAKING
OUT OF THE 80S OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AND AROUND 90
ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...BUT AT THE MOMENT THE RESULTING CIRRUS LOOKS TO BE
THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS...THEREFORE...
LOOK PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. CURRENT RECORDS... SOME LONG
STANDING...ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES LOOK TO EASILY BE
BROKEN IN THE EAST WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED. RECORDS IN THE WEST
WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO BREAK WITH EXPECTED MINS AROUND 60.

APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASING/THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE NW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 310K THETA INCREASES.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDER AT THE ONSET AS LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER AND SHOWALTERS WELL ABOVE ZERO./26/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL PULL EAST OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RAINFALL WILL RETURN
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY THIS WEEKEND. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  60  87  66 /   5   2   5  13
MERIDIAN      89  57  87  62 /   5   2   5  10
VICKSBURG     88  59  87  64 /   5   2   5  19
HATTIESBURG   91  64  89  65 /   5   2   2   6
NATCHEZ       87  61  86  66 /   5   2   2  11
GREENVILLE    85  60  85  65 /   5   2  13  32
GREENWOOD     85  56  84  63 /   5   2   8  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/CME/26/SW





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290837
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA AND DRY/COOL AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. SOME CU NOTED IN IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER FAR N MS
AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES WITH
THESE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LIMITED HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS NOT MAKING
OUT OF THE 80S OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AND AROUND 90
ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...BUT AT THE MOMENT THE RESULTING CIRRUS LOOKS TO BE
THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS...THEREFORE...
LOOK PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. CURRENT RECORDS... SOME LONG
STANDING...ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES LOOK TO EASILY BE
BROKEN IN THE EAST WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED. RECORDS IN THE WEST
WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO BREAK WITH EXPECTED MINS AROUND 60.

APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASING/THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE NW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 310K THETA INCREASES.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDER AT THE ONSET AS LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER AND SHOWALTERS WELL ABOVE ZERO./26/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL PULL EAST OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RAINFALL WILL RETURN
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY THIS WEEKEND. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
CEILINGS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4KFT. SOME SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY BUT HAVE NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  60  87  66 /  10   2   5  13
MERIDIAN      89  57  87  62 /  10   2   5  10
VICKSBURG     88  59  87  64 /  10   2   5  19
HATTIESBURG   91  64  89  65 /   3   2   2   6
NATCHEZ       87  61  86  66 /   3   2   2  11
GREENVILLE    85  60  85  65 /  10   2  13  32
GREENWOOD     85  56  84  63 /  10   2   8  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 290837
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA AND DRY/COOL AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. SOME CU NOTED IN IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER FAR N MS
AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES WITH
THESE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LIMITED HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS NOT MAKING
OUT OF THE 80S OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AND AROUND 90
ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...BUT AT THE MOMENT THE RESULTING CIRRUS LOOKS TO BE
THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS...THEREFORE...
LOOK PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. CURRENT RECORDS... SOME LONG
STANDING...ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES LOOK TO EASILY BE
BROKEN IN THE EAST WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED. RECORDS IN THE WEST
WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO BREAK WITH EXPECTED MINS AROUND 60.

APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASING/THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE NW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 310K THETA INCREASES.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDER AT THE ONSET AS LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER AND SHOWALTERS WELL ABOVE ZERO./26/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL PULL EAST OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RAINFALL WILL RETURN
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY THIS WEEKEND. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
CEILINGS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4KFT. SOME SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY BUT HAVE NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  60  87  66 /  10   2   5  13
MERIDIAN      89  57  87  62 /  10   2   5  10
VICKSBURG     88  59  87  64 /  10   2   5  19
HATTIESBURG   91  64  89  65 /   3   2   2   6
NATCHEZ       87  61  86  66 /   3   2   2  11
GREENVILLE    85  60  85  65 /  10   2  13  32
GREENWOOD     85  56  84  63 /  10   2   8  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 290146 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
846 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT THANKS TO
A COOL FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S SOUTH TO THE LOWER 60S NORTH. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AROUND 5-7KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BETWEEN 10-14Z TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH BEFORE GOING VFR AFTER 14Z. /28/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY A FEW
STORMS ALONG IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH OF OUR
CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOST COUNTIES
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS POTENTIAL WILL END ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. MID 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AT NOON HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THAT MAY EDGE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTH
WIND WILL ALLOW THE DRIER AIRMASS TO COOL BELOW NORMAL BY MORNING.
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AT GREENWOOD AND VICKSBURG
TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S IN THOSE
AREAS. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND REMAIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAINTAIN OUR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE RECORD LOWS WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MORE LOCATIONS.
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THICKER HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AGAIN THAT MAY HINDER OPTIMUM RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSER TO 60F AND POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE MORNING LOWS FOR
THE DATE WERE SET BACK IN 1994 BUT THE RECORD LOWS FOR MERIDIAN 60F
AND JACKSON 61F WERE SET BACK IN 1897. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA LIMITING DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR CWA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OUR AIRMASS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE DELTA
REGION AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /22/


LONG TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY
UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL
MOSTLY BE SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  90  61  90 /   2   1   2   8
MERIDIAN      63  90  58  89 /   3   1   2   6
VICKSBURG     63  90  60  89 /   2   2   2  10
HATTIESBURG   68  93  64  92 /   8   3   2   4
NATCHEZ       67  89  63  89 /   7   2   2   5
GREENVILLE    65  88  61  86 /   2   1   2  17
GREENWOOD     62  86  59  87 /   2   1   2  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 290146 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
846 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT THANKS TO
A COOL FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S SOUTH TO THE LOWER 60S NORTH. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AROUND 5-7KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BETWEEN 10-14Z TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH BEFORE GOING VFR AFTER 14Z. /28/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY A FEW
STORMS ALONG IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH OF OUR
CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOST COUNTIES
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS POTENTIAL WILL END ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. MID 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AT NOON HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THAT MAY EDGE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTH
WIND WILL ALLOW THE DRIER AIRMASS TO COOL BELOW NORMAL BY MORNING.
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AT GREENWOOD AND VICKSBURG
TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S IN THOSE
AREAS. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND REMAIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAINTAIN OUR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE RECORD LOWS WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MORE LOCATIONS.
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THICKER HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AGAIN THAT MAY HINDER OPTIMUM RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSER TO 60F AND POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE MORNING LOWS FOR
THE DATE WERE SET BACK IN 1994 BUT THE RECORD LOWS FOR MERIDIAN 60F
AND JACKSON 61F WERE SET BACK IN 1897. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA LIMITING DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR CWA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OUR AIRMASS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE DELTA
REGION AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /22/


LONG TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY
UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL
MOSTLY BE SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  90  61  90 /   2   1   2   8
MERIDIAN      63  90  58  89 /   3   1   2   6
VICKSBURG     63  90  60  89 /   2   2   2  10
HATTIESBURG   68  93  64  92 /   8   3   2   4
NATCHEZ       67  89  63  89 /   7   2   2   5
GREENVILLE    65  88  61  86 /   2   1   2  17
GREENWOOD     62  86  59  87 /   2   1   2  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 282041
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY A FEW
STORMS ALONG IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH OF OUR
CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOST COUNTIES
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS POTENTIAL WILL END ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. MID 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AT NOON HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THAT MAY EDGE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTH
WIND WILL ALLOW THE DRIER AIRMASS TO COOL BELOW NORMAL BY MORNING.
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AT GREENWOOD AND VICKSBURG
TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S IN THOSE
AREAS. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND REMAIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAINTAIN OUR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE RECORD LOWS WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MORE LOCATIONS.
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THICKER HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AGAIN THAT MAY HINDER OPTIMUM RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSER TO 60F AND POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE MORNING LOWS FOR
THE DATE WERE SET BACK IN 1994 BUT THE RECORD LOWS FOR MERIDIAN 60F
AND JACKSON 61F WERE SET BACK IN 1897. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA LIMITING DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR CWA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OUR AIRMASS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE DELTA
REGION AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /22/
/22/

.LONG TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY
UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL
MOSTLY BE SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 29/10Z. A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
HELP DEVELOP AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN VICINITY OF KHBG BUT NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BETWEEN 10-14Z TUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
BEFORE GOING VFR AFTER 14Z. /17/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  90  61  90 /   4   1   2   8
MERIDIAN      63  90  58  89 /   4   1   2   6
VICKSBURG     63  90  60  89 /   4   2   2  10
HATTIESBURG   68  93  64  92 /  13   3   2   4
NATCHEZ       67  89  63  89 /  12   2   2   5
GREENVILLE    65  88  61  86 /   2   1   2  17
GREENWOOD     62  86  59  87 /   2   1   2  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/SW/17








000
FXUS64 KJAN 282041
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY A FEW
STORMS ALONG IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH OF OUR
CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOST COUNTIES
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS POTENTIAL WILL END ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. MID 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AT NOON HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THAT MAY EDGE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTH
WIND WILL ALLOW THE DRIER AIRMASS TO COOL BELOW NORMAL BY MORNING.
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AT GREENWOOD AND VICKSBURG
TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S IN THOSE
AREAS. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND REMAIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAINTAIN OUR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE RECORD LOWS WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MORE LOCATIONS.
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THICKER HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AGAIN THAT MAY HINDER OPTIMUM RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSER TO 60F AND POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE MORNING LOWS FOR
THE DATE WERE SET BACK IN 1994 BUT THE RECORD LOWS FOR MERIDIAN 60F
AND JACKSON 61F WERE SET BACK IN 1897. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA LIMITING DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR CWA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OUR AIRMASS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE DELTA
REGION AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /22/
/22/

.LONG TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY
UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL
MOSTLY BE SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 29/10Z. A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
HELP DEVELOP AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN VICINITY OF KHBG BUT NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. THE COLD FRONT AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BETWEEN 10-14Z TUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
BEFORE GOING VFR AFTER 14Z. /17/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  90  61  90 /   4   1   2   8
MERIDIAN      63  90  58  89 /   4   1   2   6
VICKSBURG     63  90  60  89 /   4   2   2  10
HATTIESBURG   68  93  64  92 /  13   3   2   4
NATCHEZ       67  89  63  89 /  12   2   2   5
GREENVILLE    65  88  61  86 /   2   1   2  17
GREENWOOD     62  86  59  87 /   2   1   2  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/SW/17









000
FXUS64 KJAN 281538
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
DELTA REGION AND WAS NEAR A VICKSBURG TO TO LOUISVILLE LINE AT 10
AM. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH A LITTLE FASTER IN THE WEST
THAN IN THE EAST. THE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED BUT REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WIND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES THERE.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...LATE THIS MORNING SOME LOW STRATUS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PROVIDING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY 17Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
29/10Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT
TAF SITES KHKS...KJAN...KMEI AND KHBG. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
BETWEEN 10-14Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE GOING VFR
AFTER 14Z. /17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.

WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.

COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.

AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  63  89  63 /  18   5   2   2
MERIDIAN      93  61  90  59 /  19   5   2   2
VICKSBURG     91  61  89  63 /  23   4   2   2
HATTIESBURG   93  67  91  64 /  30  18   4   2
NATCHEZ       90  65  88  64 /  30  12   7   2
GREENVILLE    91  65  87  63 /  10   4   2   2
GREENWOOD     91  63  85  59 /  10   4   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/26/SW








000
FXUS64 KJAN 281538
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
DELTA REGION AND WAS NEAR A VICKSBURG TO TO LOUISVILLE LINE AT 10
AM. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH A LITTLE FASTER IN THE WEST
THAN IN THE EAST. THE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED BUT REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WIND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES THERE.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...LATE THIS MORNING SOME LOW STRATUS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA PROVIDING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY 17Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
29/10Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT
TAF SITES KHKS...KJAN...KMEI AND KHBG. THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THESE STORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
BETWEEN 10-14Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE GOING VFR
AFTER 14Z. /17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.

WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.

COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.

AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  63  89  63 /  18   5   2   2
MERIDIAN      93  61  90  59 /  19   5   2   2
VICKSBURG     91  61  89  63 /  23   4   2   2
HATTIESBURG   93  67  91  64 /  30  18   4   2
NATCHEZ       90  65  88  64 /  30  12   7   2
GREENVILLE    91  65  87  63 /  10   4   2   2
GREENWOOD     91  63  85  59 /  10   4   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/26/SW









000
FXUS64 KJAN 280844
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.

WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.

COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.

AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/


&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 14Z AT MEI...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT ALL TAF POINTS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  63  89  63 /  18   5   2   2
MERIDIAN      94  61  90  59 /  19   5   2   2
VICKSBURG     93  61  89  63 /  17   4   2   2
HATTIESBURG   96  67  91  64 /  26  18   4   2
NATCHEZ       93  65  88  64 /  26  12   7   2
GREENVILLE    91  65  87  63 /  16   4   2   2
GREENWOOD     91  63  85  59 /  14   4   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 280844
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.

WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.

COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.

AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/


&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 14Z AT MEI...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT ALL TAF POINTS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  63  89  63 /  18   5   2   2
MERIDIAN      94  61  90  59 /  19   5   2   2
VICKSBURG     93  61  89  63 /  17   4   2   2
HATTIESBURG   96  67  91  64 /  26  18   4   2
NATCHEZ       93  65  88  64 /  26  12   7   2
GREENVILLE    91  65  87  63 /  16   4   2   2
GREENWOOD     91  63  85  59 /  14   4   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 280844
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.

WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.

COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.

AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/


&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 14Z AT MEI...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT ALL TAF POINTS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  63  89  63 /  18   5   2   2
MERIDIAN      94  61  90  59 /  19   5   2   2
VICKSBURG     93  61  89  63 /  17   4   2   2
HATTIESBURG   96  67  91  64 /  26  18   4   2
NATCHEZ       93  65  88  64 /  26  12   7   2
GREENVILLE    91  65  87  63 /  16   4   2   2
GREENWOOD     91  63  85  59 /  14   4   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 280844
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.

WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.

COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.

AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/


&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 14Z AT MEI...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT ALL TAF POINTS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  63  89  63 /  18   5   2   2
MERIDIAN      94  61  90  59 /  19   5   2   2
VICKSBURG     93  61  89  63 /  17   4   2   2
HATTIESBURG   96  67  91  64 /  26  18   4   2
NATCHEZ       93  65  88  64 /  26  12   7   2
GREENVILLE    91  65  87  63 /  16   4   2   2
GREENWOOD     91  63  85  59 /  14   4   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 280210 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN LATER TOMORROW. LATEST
HRRR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NW WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW AM ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION TONIGHT. SHRA/TSRA ONGOING NOW ALONG
FRONT IN SE AR BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING KGLH/KGWO.
ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS 28/09Z NEAR KGLH AND
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS KJAN BUT COVERAGE TO LOW TO PLACE VCSH/TS. WINDS
WILL VEER W/NW BEHIND FRONT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME AFTN TSRA NEAR
KHBG. WILL MONITOR FOR PSBL VCTS AT HBG IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
/ALLEN/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WERE COMBINING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AT 2 PM WITH INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S ELSEWHERE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON THE
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL SWING EAST TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THAT WILL HELP SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS SHOW LITTLE QPF
INTO OUR CWA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND DROP OUT
NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO ENTER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES NEAR SUNRISE AND SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS MOST SITES DROP INTO THE 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. RECORD COLD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS DIP INTO
THE 50S. MOST RECORDS OCCURRED IN 1994 ON THAT DATE BUT THE RECORDS
FOR JACKSON AND MERIDIAN WERE SET BACK IN 1897. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SPRAWLING TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

RATHER DRY AND TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN OF LATE WITH UPPER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NW FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS
SEEM TO INDICATE A REMNANT MCS MOVING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
AREA AS THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING.

CONVECTION LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE DIGS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  65  88 /   6  19   9   2
MERIDIAN      73  93  64  88 /   7  25  10   2
VICKSBURG     73  93  64  88 /  10  19   9   2
HATTIESBURG   75  93  70  92 /   9  45  12   4
NATCHEZ       74  92  67  88 /  13  45  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  91  65  86 /  21  10   5   2
GREENWOOD     72  90  63  85 /  21  10   6   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 280210 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN LATER TOMORROW. LATEST
HRRR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NW WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW AM ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION TONIGHT. SHRA/TSRA ONGOING NOW ALONG
FRONT IN SE AR BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING KGLH/KGWO.
ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS 28/09Z NEAR KGLH AND
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS KJAN BUT COVERAGE TO LOW TO PLACE VCSH/TS. WINDS
WILL VEER W/NW BEHIND FRONT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME AFTN TSRA NEAR
KHBG. WILL MONITOR FOR PSBL VCTS AT HBG IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
/ALLEN/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WERE COMBINING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AT 2 PM WITH INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S ELSEWHERE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON THE
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL SWING EAST TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THAT WILL HELP SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS SHOW LITTLE QPF
INTO OUR CWA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND DROP OUT
NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO ENTER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES NEAR SUNRISE AND SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS MOST SITES DROP INTO THE 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. RECORD COLD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS DIP INTO
THE 50S. MOST RECORDS OCCURRED IN 1994 ON THAT DATE BUT THE RECORDS
FOR JACKSON AND MERIDIAN WERE SET BACK IN 1897. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SPRAWLING TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

RATHER DRY AND TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN OF LATE WITH UPPER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NW FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS
SEEM TO INDICATE A REMNANT MCS MOVING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
AREA AS THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING.

CONVECTION LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE DIGS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  65  88 /   6  19   9   2
MERIDIAN      73  93  64  88 /   7  25  10   2
VICKSBURG     73  93  64  88 /  10  19   9   2
HATTIESBURG   75  93  70  92 /   9  45  12   4
NATCHEZ       74  92  67  88 /  13  45  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  91  65  86 /  21  10   5   2
GREENWOOD     72  90  63  85 /  21  10   6   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 280210 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN LATER TOMORROW. LATEST
HRRR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NW WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW AM ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION TONIGHT. SHRA/TSRA ONGOING NOW ALONG
FRONT IN SE AR BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING KGLH/KGWO.
ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS 28/09Z NEAR KGLH AND
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS KJAN BUT COVERAGE TO LOW TO PLACE VCSH/TS. WINDS
WILL VEER W/NW BEHIND FRONT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME AFTN TSRA NEAR
KHBG. WILL MONITOR FOR PSBL VCTS AT HBG IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
/ALLEN/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WERE COMBINING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AT 2 PM WITH INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S ELSEWHERE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON THE
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL SWING EAST TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THAT WILL HELP SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS SHOW LITTLE QPF
INTO OUR CWA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND DROP OUT
NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO ENTER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES NEAR SUNRISE AND SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS MOST SITES DROP INTO THE 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. RECORD COLD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS DIP INTO
THE 50S. MOST RECORDS OCCURRED IN 1994 ON THAT DATE BUT THE RECORDS
FOR JACKSON AND MERIDIAN WERE SET BACK IN 1897. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SPRAWLING TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

RATHER DRY AND TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN OF LATE WITH UPPER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NW FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS
SEEM TO INDICATE A REMNANT MCS MOVING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
AREA AS THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING.

CONVECTION LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE DIGS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  65  88 /   6  19   9   2
MERIDIAN      73  93  64  88 /   7  25  10   2
VICKSBURG     73  93  64  88 /  10  19   9   2
HATTIESBURG   75  93  70  92 /   9  45  12   4
NATCHEZ       74  92  67  88 /  13  45  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  91  65  86 /  21  10   5   2
GREENWOOD     72  90  63  85 /  21  10   6   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 280210 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN LATER TOMORROW. LATEST
HRRR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NW WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW AM ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION TONIGHT. SHRA/TSRA ONGOING NOW ALONG
FRONT IN SE AR BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING KGLH/KGWO.
ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS 28/09Z NEAR KGLH AND
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS KJAN BUT COVERAGE TO LOW TO PLACE VCSH/TS. WINDS
WILL VEER W/NW BEHIND FRONT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME AFTN TSRA NEAR
KHBG. WILL MONITOR FOR PSBL VCTS AT HBG IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
/ALLEN/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WERE COMBINING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AT 2 PM WITH INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S ELSEWHERE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON THE
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL SWING EAST TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THAT WILL HELP SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS SHOW LITTLE QPF
INTO OUR CWA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND DROP OUT
NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO ENTER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES NEAR SUNRISE AND SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS MOST SITES DROP INTO THE 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. RECORD COLD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS DIP INTO
THE 50S. MOST RECORDS OCCURRED IN 1994 ON THAT DATE BUT THE RECORDS
FOR JACKSON AND MERIDIAN WERE SET BACK IN 1897. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SPRAWLING TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

RATHER DRY AND TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN OF LATE WITH UPPER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NW FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS
SEEM TO INDICATE A REMNANT MCS MOVING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
AREA AS THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING.

CONVECTION LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE DIGS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  65  88 /   6  19   9   2
MERIDIAN      73  93  64  88 /   7  25  10   2
VICKSBURG     73  93  64  88 /  10  19   9   2
HATTIESBURG   75  93  70  92 /   9  45  12   4
NATCHEZ       74  92  67  88 /  13  45  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  91  65  86 /  21  10   5   2
GREENWOOD     72  90  63  85 /  21  10   6   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 272035
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WERE COMBINING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AT 2 PM WITH INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S ELSEWHERE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON THE
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL SWING EAST TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THAT WILL HELP SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS SHOW LITTLE QPF
INTO OUR CWA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND DROP OUT
NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO ENTER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES NEAR SUNRISE AND SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS MOST SITES DROP INTO THE 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. RECORD COLD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS DIP INTO
THE 50S. MOST RECORDS OCCURRED IN 1994 ON THAT DATE BUT THE RECORDS
FOR JACKSON AND MERIDIAN WERE SET BACK IN 1897. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SPRAWLING TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

RATHER DRY AND TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN OF LATE WITH UPPER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NW FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS
SEEM TO INDICATE A REMNANT MCS MOVING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
AREA AS THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING.

CONVECTION LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE DIGS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. A FEW TSTMS WL
BE PSBL IN THE NORTH TOWARD 06Z MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE PSBL MON ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR
CONDS WL PREVAIL AWAY FROM TSTM ACTIVITY. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  65  91 /   6  19   9   2
MERIDIAN      73  93  64  91 /   7  25  10   2
VICKSBURG     73  93  64  91 /  10  19   9   2
HATTIESBURG   75  93  70  92 /   9  45  12   4
NATCHEZ       74  92  67  91 /  13  45  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  91  65  89 /  21  10   5   2
GREENWOOD     72  90  63  89 /  21  10   6   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/22









000
FXUS64 KJAN 272035
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WERE COMBINING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AT 2 PM WITH INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S ELSEWHERE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON THE
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL SWING EAST TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THAT WILL HELP SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS SHOW LITTLE QPF
INTO OUR CWA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND DROP OUT
NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO ENTER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES NEAR SUNRISE AND SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS MOST SITES DROP INTO THE 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. RECORD COLD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS DIP INTO
THE 50S. MOST RECORDS OCCURRED IN 1994 ON THAT DATE BUT THE RECORDS
FOR JACKSON AND MERIDIAN WERE SET BACK IN 1897. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SPRAWLING TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

RATHER DRY AND TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN OF LATE WITH UPPER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NW FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS
SEEM TO INDICATE A REMNANT MCS MOVING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
AREA AS THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING.

CONVECTION LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE DIGS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. A FEW TSTMS WL
BE PSBL IN THE NORTH TOWARD 06Z MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE PSBL MON ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR
CONDS WL PREVAIL AWAY FROM TSTM ACTIVITY. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  65  91 /   6  19   9   2
MERIDIAN      73  93  64  91 /   7  25  10   2
VICKSBURG     73  93  64  91 /  10  19   9   2
HATTIESBURG   75  93  70  92 /   9  45  12   4
NATCHEZ       74  92  67  91 /  13  45  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  91  65  89 /  21  10   5   2
GREENWOOD     72  90  63  89 /  21  10   6   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/22








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