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000
FXUS64 KJAN 250357
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1057 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS GOOD FOR TONIGHT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO ADD SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN WORDING FURTHER EAST. LOOKS LIKE THINGS
WERE CALMING DOWN...WITH ONE SEVERE STORM STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER FOR A
WHILE LONGER. THE MAIN BOUNDARY WAS JUST MOVING INTO WEST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS. THE DEWPOINTS WERE FALLING
QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE
60S ACROSS ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE VALUES WILL FALL SLOWLY TONIGHT...SO
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY VALUES. WITH WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS. CLOUDS
WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...MODELS SHOW THEM PASSING.


&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR GTR FOR THE
NEXT HOUR...MAYBE A LITTLE LONGER. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. CEILINGS
MAY FALL TO MVFR RANGE FROM 6-12Z FOR JAN/HBG/MEI. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME PATCHY FOG. WITH CLOUDS LINGERING FOR GLH/GWO/GTR...MAY NOT SEE
AS MUCH FOG IN THOSE AREAS. WINDS MAY GUST BRIEFLY FOR GLH/GWO
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  81  52  87 /  17   5   0   5
MERIDIAN      65  82  48  86 /  22   5   0   5
VICKSBURG     64  81  53  86 /  21   5   0   5
HATTIESBURG   65  84  56  87 /  18   5   0   5
NATCHEZ       65  81  55  85 /  15   5   0   5
GREENVILLE    59  79  52  85 /  83   5   0   5
GREENWOOD     59  78  49  85 /  77   5   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 242014
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION AND EASTWARD ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE LONG
TERM AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW ON A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON IN
LA AND AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHARP S/WV TROUGH AND ALONG A
PREFRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE SBCAPE VALUES HAVE BUILT INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH 40-50 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND NEAR 8 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL FURTHER
SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER RISK GOING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH AND
HAIL TO SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS LOOK TO MAIN HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. SPC
MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY DEPICTS LESS THEN 100 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WITHIN
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE AREA. THIS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGHER
LCL/LFCS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DELTA SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW 0-1KM
HELICITY VALUES INCREASING TOWARDS 150-200 M2/S2 OVER THE DELTA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND THUS A NON-ZERO RISK
OF A TORNADO EXISTS. THE GOING GRAPHICS HANDLE THE OVERALL SITUATION
WELL.

INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AFTER 1AM AS THE BROKEN
LINE SHIFTS EAST INTO LESS SUPPORTIVE THERMO ENVIRONMENT AND OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A DRYING TREND WILL START FRIDAY AND GO
INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. AFTER A
SLIGHTLY COOLER START TOMORROW MORNING HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FRI AFTN UNDER FULL SUN. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING UPPER 80S.

A VOLATILE EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK
PROBABLE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE
ON THIS SITUATION. /ALLEN/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST THINKING IS GENERALLY THE SAME REGARDING THE POTENT SET-
UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS MATERIALIZE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE ARKLAMISS...
BUT DRAMATIC CHANGES ARE EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL DEEPENING CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE
PLAINS STATES AND BRINGS RAPID PRESSURE FALLS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET JUXTAPOSED BY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DRAW RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD (SFC DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 70 F) AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO POTENTIAL
BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE DELTA REGION AS SFC- BASED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TAPPING INTO VERY MOIST AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
~ 1.75 INCHES. THIS MCS COULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING SOME AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...EXPECT RE-NEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF POWERFUL PACIFIC JET ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE DEEP CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND ENHANCES WIND SHEAR/LIFT AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED LAYER CAPE > 3000
J/KG COULD HELP MAY FOR A VOLATILE SET-UP WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

CIPS ANALOGS ARE SHOWING VERY SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FOR COMPARISON TO
THIS SET-UP ADDING MORE CONFIDENCE THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF A SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CYCLONIC REGIME TO STALL OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR A LONGER PERIOD INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER LOBE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BACK FLOW
SUFFICIENTLY FOR REGENERATION OF STORMS. BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  81  52  87 /  17   5   0   5
MERIDIAN      60  82  48  86 /  22   5   0   5
VICKSBURG     57  81  53  86 /  23   5   0   5
HATTIESBURG   63  84  56  87 /  18   5   0   5
NATCHEZ       60  81  55  85 /  15   5   0   5
GREENVILLE    56  79  52  85 /  71   5   0   5
GREENWOOD     57  78  49  85 /  62   5   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/EC/BK





000
FXUS64 KJAN 241550
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE... SLIGHT ALTERATIONS TO WEATHER COVERAGE AND TIMING WERE
MADE FOR LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
EXPECTED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG I-55 AND EAST TILL AFTER 7PM.
ALSO CHANCED THUNDER WORDING TO MODERATE AND LIGHT SHOWER WORDING
AFTER 1AM TONIGHT FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION BAND NEAR THAT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
BUMPED UP 1-2F THIS AFTN FOR CENTRAL LOCATIONS.

.DISCUSSION... A S/WV TROUGH NOTED ON WV SATELLITE CHANNELS WAS
NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AN ATTENDANT BOUNDARY IN WEST AR. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH EXTREME SE AR AND NE LA BY EARLY EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTN AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. THE COMBINATION OF
SBCAPE /~2000 J/KG/ AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT IN PRESENCE OF 0-1 KM
SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2 WHERE BEST LIFT WILL COINCIDE ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND ACROSS THE 82
CORRIDOR. TSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, HAIL,
AND A TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE BETTER AREA A TORNADO
WILL BE IN THE DELTA WITH RISK LOWERING FARTHER EAST AS INSTABILITY
WANES TONIGHT. THINK CAPPING WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL 6-7PM
TIMEFRAME WITH TSTORMS DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FAR WESTERN AREA NEAR
THAT TIME. DELAYED STORM PROGRESSION EAST OF I-55 TILL AFTER 7PM.
OVERALL STRONG/SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS STORMS
PROGRESS EAST WITH DECREASING LIFT/INSTABILITY.

UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THRU THE REST
OF TODAY AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
SHRA/TSRA WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS...
ALONG W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WL ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER TSRA WL BE CONFINED ALONG THE HWY
82 CORRIDOR. SHRA/TSRA WL COME TO AN END EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
W/VFR CONDS PREVAILING THRU THE DAY FRI. SLY SFC WINDS WL BECOME
GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. /BK/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER UPPER RIDGING
ALOFT THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...1000MB SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT TREK THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOWER TRACK
BRINGING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
AFFECT THE DELTA REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR MUCH LATER INTO
THE EVENING. STILL EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA AS THIS IS THE AREA OF BETTER ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW. HI-RES MODELS DEPICT STORMS APPROACHING
THE DELTA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO A
THIN SQUALL LINE BUT THE LINE WANES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
INSTABILITY ALSO WANES AND THE BEST ASCENT PULLS AWAY. THERE DOES
REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THIS SYSTEM
TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE BEST WIND SHEAR...HELICITY AND FORCING
WILL BE IN THE NORTH/DELTA REGION WHICH CURRENTLY MATCHES UP WITH OUR
OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL AS THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK AREA PER SPC. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF A 60-65KT 500MB
JET THAT SHOULD BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT ANY SEVERE STORM COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IT ALSO IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A TORNADO GIVEN THERE IS PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR AND
HELICITY IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST..BUT THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MIGHT
BE RATHER SMALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO...THE LCL HEIGHTS ARE
STILL HIGH WHICH MAY NOT HELP THAT POTENTIAL BUT DO LOWER FOR A SMALL
TIME PERIOD AFTER 00Z PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN AT THE SFC. UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE WEST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALL SPELL DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AND 50S FOR LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT. /28/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST THINKING IS GENERALLY THE SAME REGARDING THE POTENT SET-
UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS MATERIALIZE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE ARKLAMISS...
BUT DRAMATIC CHANGES ARE EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL DEEPENING CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE
PLAINS STATES AND BRINGS RAPID PRESSURE FALLS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET JUXTAPOSED BY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DRAW RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD (SFC DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 70 F) AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO POTENTIAL
BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE DELTA REGION AS SFC- BASED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TAPPING INTO VERY MOIST AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
~ 1.75 INCHES. THIS MCS COULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING SOME AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...EXPECT RE-NEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF POWERFUL PACIFIC JET ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE DEEP CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND ENHANCES WIND SHEAR/LIFT AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED LAYER CAPE > 3000
J/KG COULD HELP MAY FOR A VOLATILE SET-UP WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

CIPS ANALOGS ARE SHOWING VERY SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FOR COMPARISON TO
THIS SET-UP ADDING MORE CONFIDENCE THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF A SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CYCLONIC REGIME TO STALL OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR A LONGER PERIOD INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER LOBE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BACK FLOW
SUFFICIENTLY FOR REGENERATION OF STORMS. BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  60  79  52 /   7  31   6   0
MERIDIAN      83  59  82  48 /   7  40   6   0
VICKSBURG     84  55  79  50 /   8  27   4   0
HATTIESBURG   84  64  83  52 /   2  20   6   0
NATCHEZ       84  59  78  52 /   6  22   5   0
GREENVILLE    83  55  78  52 /  28  55   2   0
GREENWOOD     83  55  78  51 /  16  61   3   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/BK/28/EC







000
FXUS64 KJAN 241017
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...1000MB SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT
TREK THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH
THE SLOWER TRACK BRINGING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO AFFECT THE DELTA REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR
MUCH LATER INTO THE EVENING. STILL EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AS THIS IS THE AREA OF
BETTER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW. HI-RES MODELS
DEPICT STORMS APPROACHING THE DELTA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO A THIN SQUALL LINE BUT THE
LINE WANES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY ALSO WANES AND
THE BEST ASCENT PULLS AWAY. THERE DOES REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
BEST WIND SHEAR...HELICITY AND FORCING WILL BE IN THE NORTH/DELTA
REGION WHICH CURRENTLY MATCHES UP WITH OUR OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL AS
THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK AREA PER SPC. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF A 60-65KT 500MB JET THAT SHOULD BE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALL OF THIS SHOULD MEAN
THAT ANY SEVERE STORM COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. IT ALSO IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO SEE A
TORNADO GIVEN THERE IS PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST..BUT THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MIGHT BE RATHER SMALL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO...THE LCL HEIGHTS ARE STILL HIGH WHICH
MAY NOT HELP THAT POTENTIAL BUT DO LOWER FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD
AFTER 00Z PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN AT THE SFC. UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE WEST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALL SPELL DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AND 50S FOR LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT. /28/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST THINKING IS GENERALLY THE SAME REGARDING THE POTENT SET-
UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS MATERIALIZE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE ARKLAMISS...
BUT DRAMATIC CHANGES ARE EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL DEEPENING CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE
PLAINS STATES AND BRINGS RAPID PRESSURE FALLS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET JUXTAPOSED BY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DRAW RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD (SFC DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 70 F) AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO POTENTIAL
BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE DELTA REGION AS SFC- BASED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TAPPING INTO VERY MOIST AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
~ 1.75 INCHES. THIS MCS COULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING SOME AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...EXPECT RE-NEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF POWERFUL PACIFIC JET ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE DEEP CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND ENHANCES WIND SHEAR/LIFT AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED LAYER CAPE > 3000
J/KG COULD HELP MAY FOR A VOLATILE SET-UP WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

CIPS ANALOGS ARE SHOWING VERY SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FOR COMPARISON TO
THIS SET-UP ADDING MORE CONFIDENCE THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF A SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CYCLONIC REGIME TO STALL OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR A LONGER PERIOD INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER LOBE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BACK FLOW
SUFFICIENTLY FOR REGENERATION OF STORMS. BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION. /EC/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS SKIES
WILL BE SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30KTS IN THE DELTA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR TAF SITES NORTH
OF I-20(KGLH/KGWO) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING KJAN/KMEI/KGTR THROUGH THE LATER EVENING HOURS. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND STORMS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST AND THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  60  79  52 /  13  31   6   0
MERIDIAN      83  59  82  48 /   8  40   6   0
VICKSBURG     83  55  79  50 /  16  27   4   0
HATTIESBURG   83  64  83  52 /   2  20   6   0
NATCHEZ       82  59  78  52 /   6  22   5   0
GREENVILLE    82  55  78  52 /  28  55   2   0
GREENWOOD     82  55  78  51 /  24  61   3   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/28/








000
FXUS64 KJAN 240147 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST TAF
SITES. EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ONCE AGAIN FOR KMEI/KHBG WHERE FOG
WILL BEGIN TAKING VISIBILITIES AND CEILING DOWN TO IFR/LIFR AFTER
06Z...WITH A QUICK RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. /26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS DECENT CU FIELD ALONG THE GULF COAST TRYING TO
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR CWA BUT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS
SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA SO FAR. THE RIDGES WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER OUR
CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY MORNING
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP A SURFACE LOW LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LEND TO SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF BY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE BREEZY SOUTH WIND WILL
HELP A WARM FRONT LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE INCREASE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR
CWA. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE DELTA
UNTIL THE EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF I-20 BUT MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500MLCAPE AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY THE FURTHER EAST IN
THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF LIMITING CONVECTION BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT. NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
/22/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SATURDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE
LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z
RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8
INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF
RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES
OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO
AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE
AS MODELS BRING MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME
70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS
OF MOST UNSTABLE AND SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH VALUES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE
AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE
HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  83  61  81 /   1   6  25  13
MERIDIAN      50  84  61  82 /   1   4  29  12
VICKSBURG     55  84  60  83 /   2  10  26  12
HATTIESBURG   56  84  63  84 /   2   5  16  20
NATCHEZ       58  83  63  82 /   3   8  17  19
GREENVILLE    55  84  56  81 /   1  17  61   7
GREENWOOD     53  84  56  81 /   1  12  62   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 232054
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS DECENT CU FIELD ALONG THE GULF COAST TRYING TO
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR CWA BUT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS
SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA SO FAR. THE RIDGES WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER OUR
CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY MORNING
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP A SURFACE LOW LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LEND TO SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF BY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE BREEZY SOUTH WIND WILL
HELP A WARM FRONT LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE INCREASE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR
CWA. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE DELTA
UNTIL THE EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF I-20 BUT MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500MLCAPE AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY THE FURTHER EAST IN
THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF LIMITING CONVECTION BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT. NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
/22/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SATURDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE
LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z
RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8
INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF
RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES
OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO
AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE
AS MODELS BRING MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME
70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS
OF MOST UNSTABLE AND SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH VALUES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE
AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE
HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD
WITH EXCEPTION OF KHBG WHERE LOW IFR STRATUS/FOG COMBO WILL BE
POSSIBLE 09-14Z WITH VFR RETURNING QUICKLY THEREAFTER. LOWER CLOUD
BANDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST THURS AFTN WITH SOME SHRA AND TSRA
LIKELY FOR KGWO/KGLH AFTER 25/00Z. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  83  61  81 /   1   6  25  13
MERIDIAN      50  84  61  82 /   1   4  29  12
VICKSBURG     55  84  60  83 /   2  10  26  12
HATTIESBURG   56  84  63  84 /   2   5  16  20
NATCHEZ       58  83  63  82 /   3   8  17  19
GREENVILLE    55  84  56  81 /   1  17  61   7
GREENWOOD     53  84  56  81 /   1  12  62   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28/ALLEN









000
FXUS64 KJAN 231543
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...EARLIER UPDATE REMOVED MENTION OF FOG AS IT DISSIPATED
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1023MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE ALOFT JUST TO OUR WEST.
BOTH RIDGES SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
HELP MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOURLY
OBSERVATION TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO OUT PACE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
CURVES THIS MORNING  SO AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OUR
TWO. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH NEARLY SKC. WINDS NE/E TODAY AT 5-10 KT. MODELS NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STATUS BUILDING IN FROM
SOUTH 08Z-14Z BUT WILL HEDGE THIS DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING MVFR
TO IFR CONDS TO KHBG/KMCB BEFORE VFR RETURN BY 14-15Z THURSDAY AND
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELED AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE
UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST FOG DISTRIBUTION AND LATEST TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.

SOME FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NE
LOUISIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING THAT AT TIMES HAS BEEN DENSE BUT THE
TEMPORAL SCOPE OF DENSE FOG OBSERVATIONS WILL NOT NECESSITATE AN
ADVISORY IN THIS AREA. CONVERSELY...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR SE MS HAS BEEN CANCELED AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWN
THE ONCE DENSE FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY. HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY WITH GOING TRENDS. ALL UPDATES ARE OUT.
/ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A FOGGY
START TO THE DAY IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MS. THE WEAK FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY FAILED TO MAKE A BIG PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AND THE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT OF THE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN ZONES IS
PRODUCING AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT WINDS AND SUBTLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG. WE HAVE HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN LINE WHERE FOG SHOULD BE THICKEST AND LESS
PATCHY. IN OTHER AREAS WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WE WILL ALLOW THE HWO AND GRAPHICS TO COVER RISKS.

AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ZONES ANTICIPATE A NICE AND WARM DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS AROUND HIGHS AROUND 80. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE GOOD WEATHER TODAY WILL BE TRANSITIONING OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT WHICH WILL TURN FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THESE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS WELL. DECENT MOISTURE NOT TOO
FAR TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE IMPORTED BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

TOMORROW THE BOTTOM END OF AN FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BE HEADED
AT THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DEFINITELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE LEVEL WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE
NECESSARY. DESPITE SCATTERED CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT
IN THE VERY WARM MID 80S IN SOME SPOTS. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE KICKING UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
TRIES TO QUICKLY RECOVER UP THE AXIS OF THE MS RIVER AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THERMAL MID LEVEL CAPPING PUSHING NORTH FROM THE COAST LIKELY
PROHIBITIVE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-20. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A
LITTLE WITH BRINGING THE CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS A
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IF WE ARE TRYING TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. BUT CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500 ML CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OR MAYBE EVEN A SUPERCELL OR TWO IN
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO
CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP EXITING WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. /BB/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY. AS THE END OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THIS RIDGING
WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH
THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT
SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS
WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS BRING MID 60S
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS OF MOST UNSTABLE AND
SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH VALUES
AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  55  84  63 /   0   1   8  23
MERIDIAN      82  51  84  60 /   0   1   8  26
VICKSBURG     82  57  84  61 /   0   3  12  23
HATTIESBURG   84  56  84  63 /   0   3   8  10
NATCHEZ       83  59  82  63 /   0   5   8  11
GREENVILLE    80  57  84  59 /   0   1  26  47
GREENWOOD     80  54  84  59 /   0   1  16  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/ALLEN/28









000
FXUS64 KJAN 231308
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
808 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELED AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE
UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST FOG DISTRIBUTION AND LATEST TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.

SOME FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NE
LOUISIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING THAT AT TIMES HAS BEEN DENSE BUT THE
TEMPORAL SCOPE OF DENSE FOG OBSERVATIONS WILL NOT NECESSITATE AN
ADVISORY IN THIS AREA. CONVERSELY...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR SE MS HAS BEEN CANCELED AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWN
THE ONCE DENSE FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY. HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY WITH GOING TRENDS. ALL UPDATES ARE OUT.
/ALLEN/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A FOGGY
START TO THE DAY IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MS. THE WEAK FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY FAILED TO MAKE A BIG PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AND THE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT OF THE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN ZONES IS
PRODUCING AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT WINDS AND SUBTLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG. WE HAVE HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN LINE WHERE FOG SHOULD BE THICKEST AND LESS
PATCHY. IN OTHER AREAS WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WE WILL ALLOW THE HWO AND GRAPHICS TO COVER RISKS.

AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ZONES ANTICIPATE A NICE AND WARM DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS AROUND HIGHS AROUND 80. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE GOOD WEATHER TODAY WILL BE TRANSITIONING OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT WHICH WILL TURN FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THESE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS WELL. DECENT MOISTURE NOT TOO
FAR TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE IMPORTED BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

TOMORROW THE BOTTOM END OF AN FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BE HEADED
AT THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DEFINITELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE LEVEL WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE
NECESSARY. DESPITE SCATTERED CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT
IN THE VERY WARM MID 80S IN SOME SPOTS. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE KICKING UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
TRIES TO QUICKLY RECOVER UP THE AXIS OF THE MS RIVER AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THERMAL MID LEVEL CAPPING PUSHING NORTH FROM THE COAST LIKELY
PROHIBITIVE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-20. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A
LITTLE WITH BRINGING THE CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS A
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IF WE ARE TRYING TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. BUT CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500 ML CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OR MAYBE EVEN A SUPERCELL OR TWO IN
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO
CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP EXITING WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. /BB/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY. AS THE END OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THIS RIDGING
WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH
THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT
SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS
WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS BRING MID 60S
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS OF MOST UNSTABLE AND
SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH VALUES
AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY LATEST THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN MS...BUT
AT LEAST BY 10 AM ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
THANKS TO LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  55  84  63 /   0   1   8  23
MERIDIAN      82  51  84  60 /   0   1   8  26
VICKSBURG     82  57  84  61 /   0   3  12  23
HATTIESBURG   84  56  84  63 /   0   3   8  10
NATCHEZ       83  59  82  63 /   0   5   8  11
GREENVILLE    79  57  84  59 /   0   1  26  47
GREENWOOD     79  54  84  59 /   0   1  16  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 230936
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A FOGGY
START TO THE DAY IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MS. THE WEAK FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY FAILED TO MAKE A BIG PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AND THE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT OF THE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN ZONES IS
PRODUCING AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT WINDS AND SUBTLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG. WE HAVE HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN LINE WHERE FOG SHOULD BE THICKEST AND LESS
PATCHY. IN OTHER AREAS WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WE WILL ALLOW THE HWO AND GRAPHICS TO COVER RISKS.

AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ZONES ANTICIPATE A NICE AND WARM DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS AROUND HIGHS AROUND 80. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE GOOD WEATHER TODAY WILL BE TRANSITIONING OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT WHICH WILL TURN FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THESE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS WELL. DECENT MOISTURE NOT TOO
FAR TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE IMPORTED BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

TOMORROW THE BOTTOM END OF AN FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BE HEADED
AT THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DEFINITELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE LEVEL WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE
NECESSARY. DESPITE SCATTERED CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT
IN THE VERY WARM MID 80S IN SOME SPOTS. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE KICKING UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
TRIES TO QUICKLY RECOVER UP THE AXIS OF THE MS RIVER AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THERMAL MID LEVEL CAPPING PUSHING NORTH FROM THE COAST LIKELY
PROHIBITIVE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-20. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A
LITTLE WITH BRINGING THE CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS A
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IF WE ARE TRYING TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. BUT CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500 ML CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OR MAYBE EVEN A SUPERCELL OR TWO IN
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO
CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP EXITING WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. /BB/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY. AS THE END OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THIS RIDGING
WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH
THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT
SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS
WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS BRING MID 60S
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS OF MOST UNSTABLE AND
SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH VALUES
AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY LATEST THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN MS...BUT
AT LEAST BY 10 AM ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
THANKS TO LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  55  84  63 /   0   1   8  23
MERIDIAN      81  51  84  60 /   0   1   8  26
VICKSBURG     82  57  84  61 /   0   3  12  23
HATTIESBURG   84  56  84  63 /   0   3   8  10
NATCHEZ       82  59  82  63 /   0   5   8  11
GREENVILLE    79  57  84  59 /   0   1  26  47
GREENWOOD     79  54  84  59 /   0   1  16  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ051-052-
     055>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28






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