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000
FXUS64 KJAN 281017
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AGAIN TODAY. TEMPS WERE
GOOD...STUCK WITH GUIDANCE.

CONVECTION WAS STILL DEVELOPING OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS A COMPLEX GOING NEAR BROWNSVILLE. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA ALONG THE COAST SHIFTS INLAND WITH
HEATING...A THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84 IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS EXTEND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MODELS SHOW THINGS ENDING BY 00Z...OPTED TO
EXTEND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LINGER.
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PW VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING A MAX RIGHT
AROUND 00Z ALONG WITH INSTABILITY.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND PUSHES MORE GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SHOULD APPROACH THE ARKLAMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE POPS WERE GOOD. THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE SOUTH IS MORE LIKELY.



.LONG TERM...MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INTO THE
WEEKEND...OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS AND A S/WV TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP
DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN).
ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE
EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH HELPS IN THE GENERATION
OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS SOME TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
SAT-SUN...HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE COMMON RANGE.
AS FOR LOWS...EACH MORNING WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM WITH LOWS 72-75.

FOR THE WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO TAPER
PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A 20-30% VARIETY WITH TIMING MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL WARM AND MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE
LOWER/MID 90S. /CME/




&&

.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
HATTIESBURG AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET. COULD SEE SOME FOG BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  70  95  74 /   6   7  10  36
MERIDIAN      95  66  95  73 /   3   6  10  34
VICKSBURG     95  68  94  72 /   6   9  11  37
HATTIESBURG   95  72  94  75 /  18  18  46  44
NATCHEZ       93  71  94  74 /  15  15  39  39
GREENVILLE    95  69  95  72 /   2   5   6  36
GREENWOOD     96  67  95  72 /   1   4   4  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 281017
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AGAIN TODAY. TEMPS WERE
GOOD...STUCK WITH GUIDANCE.

CONVECTION WAS STILL DEVELOPING OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS A COMPLEX GOING NEAR BROWNSVILLE. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA ALONG THE COAST SHIFTS INLAND WITH
HEATING...A THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84 IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS EXTEND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MODELS SHOW THINGS ENDING BY 00Z...OPTED TO
EXTEND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LINGER.
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PW VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING A MAX RIGHT
AROUND 00Z ALONG WITH INSTABILITY.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND PUSHES MORE GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SHOULD APPROACH THE ARKLAMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE POPS WERE GOOD. THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE SOUTH IS MORE LIKELY.



.LONG TERM...MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INTO THE
WEEKEND...OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE SE
CONUS AND A S/WV TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP
DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN).
ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE
EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH HELPS IN THE GENERATION
OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS SOME TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
SAT-SUN...HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE COMMON RANGE.
AS FOR LOWS...EACH MORNING WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM WITH LOWS 72-75.

FOR THE WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO TAPER
PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A 20-30% VARIETY WITH TIMING MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL WARM AND MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE
LOWER/MID 90S. /CME/




&&

.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
HATTIESBURG AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET. COULD SEE SOME FOG BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  70  95  74 /   6   7  10  36
MERIDIAN      95  66  95  73 /   3   6  10  34
VICKSBURG     95  68  94  72 /   6   9  11  37
HATTIESBURG   95  72  94  75 /  18  18  46  44
NATCHEZ       93  71  94  74 /  15  15  39  39
GREENVILLE    95  69  95  72 /   2   5   6  36
GREENWOOD     96  67  95  72 /   1   4   4  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/CME






000
FXUS64 KJAN 280155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. PWATS IN 00Z KJAN SOUNDING HAVE RISEN
SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY ONLY AROUND 1.1 INCHES...ADDED TO SOME
INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF...IS AIDING IN
SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE SRN ZONES. MOISTURE IS DEEPER
FURTHER S AS 00Z KLIX SOUNDING INDICATED IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE IN THE S BUT SHOULD DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. THUS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING
EXCEPT THE FAR SW. OVERALL LOWS ARE ON TRACK AND ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS.
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
A BRIEF PERIOD 11-13Z THU OF MVFR VSBYS OVR THE AREA. THU AFTN ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ALSO BE PSBL IN THE SOUTH. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE HOTTER THAN
AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REMAINS THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER.
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HAVE THEIR INFLUENCE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH THEREFORE ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY LIMITED TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN THAT TIME
FRAME. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE LOW TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT AND HUMIDITY A LITTLE TOMORROW...BUT THROUGH
FRIDAY WE STILL EXPECT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO GENERALLY REMAIN
SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK.

BY LATER FRIDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS CONFIDENT THAT AN INCOMING AND
NON-TRIVIAL UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN HIGH PRESSURE IN OUR VICINITY AND PUSH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
TO OUR EAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO OUR REGION IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND
BEGIN IMPORTING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INLAND. STILL THINKING MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT THOSE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY DUE TO RELATIVE IMPORTANCE FRIDAY EVENING ACTIVITIES AROUND
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY REMAINS QUITE VALID AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
TRENDS ON THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE
MENTION IN THE HWO. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO
BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH
WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW
NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN).
ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE
EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH HELPS IN THE GENERATION
OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS
FOR TEMPS DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD
IN CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  71  95 /   5   6  11  19
MERIDIAN      63  95  68  94 /   4   4   9  16
VICKSBURG     66  94  70  93 /   7  11  16  21
HATTIESBURG   70  95  72  93 /  12  12   8  35
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  92 /  13  23  15  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  72  93 /   4   3  13  25
GREENWOOD     65  95  70  94 /   3   2  10  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/BB/CME






000
FXUS64 KJAN 280155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. PWATS IN 00Z KJAN SOUNDING HAVE RISEN
SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY ONLY AROUND 1.1 INCHES...ADDED TO SOME
INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF...IS AIDING IN
SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE SRN ZONES. MOISTURE IS DEEPER
FURTHER S AS 00Z KLIX SOUNDING INDICATED IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE IN THE S BUT SHOULD DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. THUS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING
EXCEPT THE FAR SW. OVERALL LOWS ARE ON TRACK AND ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS.
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
A BRIEF PERIOD 11-13Z THU OF MVFR VSBYS OVR THE AREA. THU AFTN ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ALSO BE PSBL IN THE SOUTH. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE HOTTER THAN
AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REMAINS THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER.
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HAVE THEIR INFLUENCE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH THEREFORE ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY LIMITED TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN THAT TIME
FRAME. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE LOW TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT AND HUMIDITY A LITTLE TOMORROW...BUT THROUGH
FRIDAY WE STILL EXPECT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO GENERALLY REMAIN
SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK.

BY LATER FRIDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS CONFIDENT THAT AN INCOMING AND
NON-TRIVIAL UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN HIGH PRESSURE IN OUR VICINITY AND PUSH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
TO OUR EAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO OUR REGION IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND
BEGIN IMPORTING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INLAND. STILL THINKING MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT THOSE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY DUE TO RELATIVE IMPORTANCE FRIDAY EVENING ACTIVITIES AROUND
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY REMAINS QUITE VALID AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
TRENDS ON THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE
MENTION IN THE HWO. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO
BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH
WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW
NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN).
ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE
EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH HELPS IN THE GENERATION
OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS
FOR TEMPS DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD
IN CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  71  95 /   5   6  11  19
MERIDIAN      63  95  68  94 /   4   4   9  16
VICKSBURG     66  94  70  93 /   7  11  16  21
HATTIESBURG   70  95  72  93 /  12  12   8  35
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  92 /  13  23  15  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  72  93 /   4   3  13  25
GREENWOOD     65  95  70  94 /   3   2  10  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/BB/CME






000
FXUS64 KJAN 280155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. PWATS IN 00Z KJAN SOUNDING HAVE RISEN
SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY ONLY AROUND 1.1 INCHES...ADDED TO SOME
INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF...IS AIDING IN
SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE SRN ZONES. MOISTURE IS DEEPER
FURTHER S AS 00Z KLIX SOUNDING INDICATED IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE IN THE S BUT SHOULD DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. THUS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING
EXCEPT THE FAR SW. OVERALL LOWS ARE ON TRACK AND ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS.
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
A BRIEF PERIOD 11-13Z THU OF MVFR VSBYS OVR THE AREA. THU AFTN ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ALSO BE PSBL IN THE SOUTH. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE HOTTER THAN
AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REMAINS THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER.
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HAVE THEIR INFLUENCE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH THEREFORE ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY LIMITED TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN THAT TIME
FRAME. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE LOW TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT AND HUMIDITY A LITTLE TOMORROW...BUT THROUGH
FRIDAY WE STILL EXPECT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO GENERALLY REMAIN
SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK.

BY LATER FRIDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS CONFIDENT THAT AN INCOMING AND
NON-TRIVIAL UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN HIGH PRESSURE IN OUR VICINITY AND PUSH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
TO OUR EAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO OUR REGION IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND
BEGIN IMPORTING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INLAND. STILL THINKING MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT THOSE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY DUE TO RELATIVE IMPORTANCE FRIDAY EVENING ACTIVITIES AROUND
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY REMAINS QUITE VALID AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
TRENDS ON THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE
MENTION IN THE HWO. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO
BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH
WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW
NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN).
ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE
EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH HELPS IN THE GENERATION
OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS
FOR TEMPS DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD
IN CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  71  95 /   5   6  11  19
MERIDIAN      63  95  68  94 /   4   4   9  16
VICKSBURG     66  94  70  93 /   7  11  16  21
HATTIESBURG   70  95  72  93 /  12  12   8  35
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  92 /  13  23  15  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  72  93 /   4   3  13  25
GREENWOOD     65  95  70  94 /   3   2  10  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/BB/CME






000
FXUS64 KJAN 280155 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. PWATS IN 00Z KJAN SOUNDING HAVE RISEN
SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY ONLY AROUND 1.1 INCHES...ADDED TO SOME
INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF...IS AIDING IN
SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE SRN ZONES. MOISTURE IS DEEPER
FURTHER S AS 00Z KLIX SOUNDING INDICATED IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE IN THE S BUT SHOULD DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. THUS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING
EXCEPT THE FAR SW. OVERALL LOWS ARE ON TRACK AND ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS.
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
A BRIEF PERIOD 11-13Z THU OF MVFR VSBYS OVR THE AREA. THU AFTN ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL ALSO BE PSBL IN THE SOUTH. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE HOTTER THAN
AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REMAINS THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER.
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HAVE THEIR INFLUENCE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH THEREFORE ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY LIMITED TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN THAT TIME
FRAME. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE LOW TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT AND HUMIDITY A LITTLE TOMORROW...BUT THROUGH
FRIDAY WE STILL EXPECT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO GENERALLY REMAIN
SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK.

BY LATER FRIDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS CONFIDENT THAT AN INCOMING AND
NON-TRIVIAL UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN HIGH PRESSURE IN OUR VICINITY AND PUSH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
TO OUR EAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO OUR REGION IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND
BEGIN IMPORTING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INLAND. STILL THINKING MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT THOSE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY DUE TO RELATIVE IMPORTANCE FRIDAY EVENING ACTIVITIES AROUND
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY REMAINS QUITE VALID AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
TRENDS ON THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE
MENTION IN THE HWO. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO
BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH
WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW
NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN).
ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE
EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH HELPS IN THE GENERATION
OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS
FOR TEMPS DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD
IN CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  71  95 /   5   6  11  19
MERIDIAN      63  95  68  94 /   4   4   9  16
VICKSBURG     66  94  70  93 /   7  11  16  21
HATTIESBURG   70  95  72  93 /  12  12   8  35
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  92 /  13  23  15  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  72  93 /   4   3  13  25
GREENWOOD     65  95  70  94 /   3   2  10  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/BB/CME






000
FXUS64 KJAN 272110
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE HOTTER THAN
AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REMAINS THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER.
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HAVE THEIR INFLUENCE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH THEREFORE ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY LIMITED TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN THAT TIME
FRAME. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE LOW TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT AND HUMIDITY A LITTLE TOMORROW...BUT THROUGH
FRIDAY WE STILL EXPECT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO GENERALLY REMAIN
SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK.

BY LATER FRIDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS CONFIDENT THAT AN INCOMING AND
NON-TRIVIAL UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN HIGH PRESSURE IN OUR VICINITY AND PUSH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
TO OUR EAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO OUR REGION IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND
BEGIN IMPORTING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INLAND. STILL THINKING MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT THOSE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY DUE TO RELATIVE IMPORTANCE FRIDAY EVENING ACTIVITIES AROUND
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY REMAINS QUITE VALID AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
TRENDS ON THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE
MENTION IN THE HWO. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO
BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH
WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW
NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN).
ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE
EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH HELPS IN THE GENERATION
OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS
FOR TEMPS DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD
IN CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
HBG/PIB WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR GETTING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY THOUGH IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THERE. ALL
OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE RESUMING VFR. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  71  95 /   5   6  11  19
MERIDIAN      63  95  68  94 /   4   4   9  16
VICKSBURG     66  94  70  93 /   6  11  16  21
HATTIESBURG   70  95  72  93 /  12  12   8  35
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  92 /  15  23  15  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  72  93 /   4   3  13  25
GREENWOOD     65  95  70  94 /   3   2  10  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 272110
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE HOTTER THAN
AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REMAINS THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER.
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HAVE THEIR INFLUENCE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH THEREFORE ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY LIMITED TO MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN THAT TIME
FRAME. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE LOW TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT AND HUMIDITY A LITTLE TOMORROW...BUT THROUGH
FRIDAY WE STILL EXPECT PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO GENERALLY REMAIN
SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK.

BY LATER FRIDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS CONFIDENT THAT AN INCOMING AND
NON-TRIVIAL UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN HIGH PRESSURE IN OUR VICINITY AND PUSH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
TO OUR EAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO OUR REGION IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND
BEGIN IMPORTING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INLAND. STILL THINKING MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT THOSE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY DUE TO RELATIVE IMPORTANCE FRIDAY EVENING ACTIVITIES AROUND
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY REMAINS QUITE VALID AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
TRENDS ON THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE
MENTION IN THE HWO. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO
BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH
WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW
NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN).
ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE
EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH HELPS IN THE GENERATION
OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS
FOR TEMPS DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST
WITH HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD
IN CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
HBG/PIB WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR GETTING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY THOUGH IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THERE. ALL
OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE RESUMING VFR. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  71  95 /   5   6  11  19
MERIDIAN      63  95  68  94 /   4   4   9  16
VICKSBURG     66  94  70  93 /   6  11  16  21
HATTIESBURG   70  95  72  93 /  12  12   8  35
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  92 /  15  23  15  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  72  93 /   4   3  13  25
GREENWOOD     65  95  70  94 /   3   2  10  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28/CME






000
FXUS64 KJAN 271512 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST BASICALLY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING HYBRID WEAK LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE TX COAST. BROAD ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PROMOTE A LITTLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SHIFT STATED...POOR LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAKE
IT HARD TO GET STORMS IN OUR REGION SO I CONTINUED TO LEAVE THUNDER
OUT OF WEATHER MENTION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
WORST WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN QUITE TOLERABLE (ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON COULD
MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S). MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT GETTING TEMPS
TO PEAK ABOVE 93 DEGREES ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION WILL BE TOUGH SO I
BUMPED DOWN HIGHS IN A FEW AREAS WHERE THIS THRESHOLD WAS EXCEEDED.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KJAN RAOB
WAS 0.90) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BRING SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION - SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THUNDER.

A SIMILAR SET-UP IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SURGE A BIT FARTHER INLAND RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR GETTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP
INTO TO THE LOW-MID 90S...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS... ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE
MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN). ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A
MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH
HELPS IN THE GENERATION OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY
FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
HBG/PIB WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR GETTING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY BUT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. /28/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  69  93  71 /   4   6  10  14
MERIDIAN      93  64  94  68 /   4   8   8  13
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  69 /   3   6  18  16
HATTIESBURG   94  70  93  71 /  17  10  19  13
NATCHEZ       90  69  90  71 /  14  10  31  15
GREENVILLE    94  68  95  71 /   2   4   9  12
GREENWOOD     93  67  94  69 /   2   4   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28/EC/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 271512 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST BASICALLY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING HYBRID WEAK LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE TX COAST. BROAD ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PROMOTE A LITTLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SHIFT STATED...POOR LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAKE
IT HARD TO GET STORMS IN OUR REGION SO I CONTINUED TO LEAVE THUNDER
OUT OF WEATHER MENTION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
WORST WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN QUITE TOLERABLE (ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON COULD
MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S). MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT GETTING TEMPS
TO PEAK ABOVE 93 DEGREES ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION WILL BE TOUGH SO I
BUMPED DOWN HIGHS IN A FEW AREAS WHERE THIS THRESHOLD WAS EXCEEDED.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KJAN RAOB
WAS 0.90) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BRING SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION - SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THUNDER.

A SIMILAR SET-UP IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SURGE A BIT FARTHER INLAND RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR GETTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP
INTO TO THE LOW-MID 90S...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS... ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE
MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN). ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A
MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH
HELPS IN THE GENERATION OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY
FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
HBG/PIB WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR GETTING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY BUT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. /28/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  69  93  71 /   4   6  10  14
MERIDIAN      93  64  94  68 /   4   8   8  13
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  69 /   3   6  18  16
HATTIESBURG   94  70  93  71 /  17  10  19  13
NATCHEZ       90  69  90  71 /  14  10  31  15
GREENVILLE    94  68  95  71 /   2   4   9  12
GREENWOOD     93  67  94  69 /   2   4   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28/EC/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 271512 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST BASICALLY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING HYBRID WEAK LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE TX COAST. BROAD ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PROMOTE A LITTLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SHIFT STATED...POOR LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAKE
IT HARD TO GET STORMS IN OUR REGION SO I CONTINUED TO LEAVE THUNDER
OUT OF WEATHER MENTION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
WORST WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN QUITE TOLERABLE (ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON COULD
MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S). MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT GETTING TEMPS
TO PEAK ABOVE 93 DEGREES ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION WILL BE TOUGH SO I
BUMPED DOWN HIGHS IN A FEW AREAS WHERE THIS THRESHOLD WAS EXCEEDED.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KJAN RAOB
WAS 0.90) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BRING SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION - SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THUNDER.

A SIMILAR SET-UP IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SURGE A BIT FARTHER INLAND RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR GETTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP
INTO TO THE LOW-MID 90S...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS... ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE
MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN). ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A
MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH
HELPS IN THE GENERATION OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY
FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
HBG/PIB WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR GETTING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY BUT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. /28/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  69  93  71 /   4   6  10  14
MERIDIAN      93  64  94  68 /   4   8   8  13
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  69 /   3   6  18  16
HATTIESBURG   94  70  93  71 /  17  10  19  13
NATCHEZ       90  69  90  71 /  14  10  31  15
GREENVILLE    94  68  95  71 /   2   4   9  12
GREENWOOD     93  67  94  69 /   2   4   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28/EC/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 271512 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST BASICALLY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING HYBRID WEAK LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE TX COAST. BROAD ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PROMOTE A LITTLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SHIFT STATED...POOR LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAKE
IT HARD TO GET STORMS IN OUR REGION SO I CONTINUED TO LEAVE THUNDER
OUT OF WEATHER MENTION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
WORST WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN QUITE TOLERABLE (ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON COULD
MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S). MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT GETTING TEMPS
TO PEAK ABOVE 93 DEGREES ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION WILL BE TOUGH SO I
BUMPED DOWN HIGHS IN A FEW AREAS WHERE THIS THRESHOLD WAS EXCEEDED.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KJAN RAOB
WAS 0.90) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BRING SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION - SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THUNDER.

A SIMILAR SET-UP IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SURGE A BIT FARTHER INLAND RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR GETTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP
INTO TO THE LOW-MID 90S...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS... ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE
MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN). ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A
MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH
HELPS IN THE GENERATION OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY
FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
HBG/PIB WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR GETTING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY BUT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. /28/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  69  93  71 /   4   6  10  14
MERIDIAN      93  64  94  68 /   4   8   8  13
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  69 /   3   6  18  16
HATTIESBURG   94  70  93  71 /  17  10  19  13
NATCHEZ       90  69  90  71 /  14  10  31  15
GREENVILLE    94  68  95  71 /   2   4   9  12
GREENWOOD     93  67  94  69 /   2   4   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28/EC/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 270904
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KJAN RAOB
WAS 0.90) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BRING SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION - SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THUNDER.

A SIMILAR SET-UP IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SURGE A BIT FARTHER INLAND RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR GETTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP
INTO TO THE LOW-MID 90S...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS... ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE
MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN). ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A
MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH
HELPS IN THE GENERATION OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY
FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. HBG/PIB WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR
GETTING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  69  93  71 /   4   6  10  14
MERIDIAN      94  64  94  68 /   4   8   8  13
VICKSBURG     94  66  94  69 /   3   6  18  16
HATTIESBURG   94  70  93  71 /  17  10  19  13
NATCHEZ       91  69  90  71 /  14  10  31  15
GREENVILLE    93  68  95  71 /   2   4   9  12
GREENWOOD     93  67  94  69 /   2   4   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/EC/CME/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 270904
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KJAN RAOB
WAS 0.90) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BRING SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION - SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THUNDER.

A SIMILAR SET-UP IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL SURGE A BIT FARTHER INLAND RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR GETTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP
INTO TO THE LOW-MID 90S...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS... ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS/EURO BOTH AGREE ON OUR REGION BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE S/SW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND HELP DRAW NORTHWARD RICH TROPICAL TYPE
MOISTURE (PWS 2.1 TO 2.4 IN). ADDITIONALLY...EACH MODEL INDICATES A
MORE SUBTLE S/WV FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WHICH
HELPS IN THE GENERATION OF MORE WIDESPREAD TYPE PRECIP ACTIVITY
FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SAT NGT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES. AS FOR TEMPS
DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...LOOK FOR FRI TO BE THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS 90-94 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...85-90 WILL BE A MORE
COMMON RANGE FOR SAT-SUN. AS FOR LOWS...LOOK FOR EACH DAY TO RUN ON
ABNORMALLY THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS 72-75.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN SAT-SUN. ONCE WE
GET INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION (SE CONUS). THIS WILL
HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY
WHILE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID
90S. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. HBG/PIB WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR
GETTING AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  69  93  71 /   4   6  10  14
MERIDIAN      94  64  94  68 /   4   8   8  13
VICKSBURG     94  66  94  69 /   3   6  18  16
HATTIESBURG   94  70  93  71 /  17  10  19  13
NATCHEZ       91  69  90  71 /  14  10  31  15
GREENVILLE    93  68  95  71 /   2   4   9  12
GREENWOOD     93  67  94  69 /   2   4   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/EC/CME/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 270136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN FROM THE NE
TO SW AS PWATS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 1.0 INCH IN 00Z KJAN/KBMX
SOUNDINGS. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. LOWS LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE ALONG/S OF I-20 SLOWLY FILTERING TO THE N AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO SLOWLY FILTER TO THE N/NE WHILE SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HINDER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO ERODING
OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ON SATELLITE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO CNTRL MS AT 01Z BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE
THOUGH THE EVENING AND VFR CONDS WL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT
AREAWIDE. PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS COULD BE
PSBL FOR KHBG 11-14Z. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE
HAS BEEN BACKDOORING INTO THE REGION ALL DAY...WHICH HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TOLERABLE AND ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED
WELL NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE MENTIONED DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD YIELD LOWS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY
IN THE BELOW NORMAL 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THIS SAME GENERAL SCENARIO OF HOT YET DRY DAYS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS
THE INFLUX OF DRY MID LEVEL CONTINUES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WEST DOWN
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE HEART OF OUR REGION. AS TIME
PROGRESSES...AND DEFINITELY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
SEMBLANCE OF NON-NEGLIGIBLE DEEP MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SNEAK BACK
NORTH FROM THE COAST AND UP TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN MY
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINALLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY IN FAR SW MS AND IN PORTIONS OF NE LA LATE
THURSDAY.

LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTS POOLING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE COULD START PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO SHOVE OUT OF
THE WAY FIRST...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS LATE FRIDAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR BOTH DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
RIDGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT WILL
LEAVE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE LEADING TO MORE STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  68  95 /   0   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      64  94  63  96 /   0   6   4   5
VICKSBURG     64  94  67  94 /   0   7  11  12
HATTIESBURG   69  95  69  96 /   0  16  12  11
NATCHEZ       68  92  70  92 /   0  15  17  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  68  96 /   0   4   4   4
GREENWOOD     65  94  66  96 /   0   4   3   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/BB/SW





000
FXUS64 KJAN 270136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN FROM THE NE
TO SW AS PWATS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 1.0 INCH IN 00Z KJAN/KBMX
SOUNDINGS. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. LOWS LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE ALONG/S OF I-20 SLOWLY FILTERING TO THE N AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO SLOWLY FILTER TO THE N/NE WHILE SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HINDER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO ERODING
OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ON SATELLITE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO CNTRL MS AT 01Z BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE
THOUGH THE EVENING AND VFR CONDS WL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT
AREAWIDE. PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS COULD BE
PSBL FOR KHBG 11-14Z. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE
HAS BEEN BACKDOORING INTO THE REGION ALL DAY...WHICH HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TOLERABLE AND ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED
WELL NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE MENTIONED DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD YIELD LOWS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY
IN THE BELOW NORMAL 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THIS SAME GENERAL SCENARIO OF HOT YET DRY DAYS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS
THE INFLUX OF DRY MID LEVEL CONTINUES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WEST DOWN
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE HEART OF OUR REGION. AS TIME
PROGRESSES...AND DEFINITELY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
SEMBLANCE OF NON-NEGLIGIBLE DEEP MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SNEAK BACK
NORTH FROM THE COAST AND UP TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN MY
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINALLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY IN FAR SW MS AND IN PORTIONS OF NE LA LATE
THURSDAY.

LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTS POOLING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE COULD START PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO SHOVE OUT OF
THE WAY FIRST...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS LATE FRIDAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR BOTH DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
RIDGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT WILL
LEAVE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE LEADING TO MORE STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  68  95 /   0   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      64  94  63  96 /   0   6   4   5
VICKSBURG     64  94  67  94 /   0   7  11  12
HATTIESBURG   69  95  69  96 /   0  16  12  11
NATCHEZ       68  92  70  92 /   0  15  17  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  68  96 /   0   4   4   4
GREENWOOD     65  94  66  96 /   0   4   3   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/BB/SW






000
FXUS64 KJAN 262101
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014


.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE
HAS BEEN BACKDOORING INTO THE REGION ALL DAY...WHICH HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TOLERABLE AND ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED
WELL NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE MENTIONED DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD YIELD LOWS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY
IN THE BELOW NORMAL 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THIS SAME GENERAL SCENARIO OF HOT YET DRY DAYS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS
THE INFLUX OF DRY MID LEVEL CONTINUES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WEST DOWN
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE HEART OF OUR REGION. AS TIME
PROGRESSES...AND DEFINITELY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
SEMBLANCE OF NON-NEGLIGIBLE DEEP MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SNEAK BACK
NORTH FROM THE COAST AND UP TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN MY
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINALLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY IN FAR SW MS AND IN PORTIONS OF NE LA LATE
THURSDAY.

LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTS POOLING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE COULD START PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO SHOVE OUT OF
THE WAY FIRST...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS LATE FRIDAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR BOTH DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
RIDGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT WILL
LEAVE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE LEADING TO MORE STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...SKC TO ONLY FEW050 ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN WITH SKC
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NE/E SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT THIS
AFTN WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 15 KT BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 23-00Z TO 5
KT OR LESS. PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR COULD BE PSBL
FOR KHBG 11-14Z. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  68  95 /   0   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      64  94  63  96 /   0   6   4   5
VICKSBURG     64  94  67  94 /   0   7  11  12
HATTIESBURG   69  95  69  96 /   4  16  12  11
NATCHEZ       68  92  70  92 /   3  15  17  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  68  96 /   3   4   4   4
GREENWOOD     65  94  66  96 /   1   4   3   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/SW/ALLEN






000
FXUS64 KJAN 262101
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014


.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE
HAS BEEN BACKDOORING INTO THE REGION ALL DAY...WHICH HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE TOLERABLE AND ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED
WELL NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE MENTIONED DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD YIELD LOWS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY
IN THE BELOW NORMAL 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

EXPECT THIS SAME GENERAL SCENARIO OF HOT YET DRY DAYS WITH
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS
THE INFLUX OF DRY MID LEVEL CONTINUES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WEST DOWN
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE HEART OF OUR REGION. AS TIME
PROGRESSES...AND DEFINITELY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
SEMBLANCE OF NON-NEGLIGIBLE DEEP MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SNEAK BACK
NORTH FROM THE COAST AND UP TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS COULD SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN MY
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINALLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY IN FAR SW MS AND IN PORTIONS OF NE LA LATE
THURSDAY.

LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTS POOLING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE COULD START PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO SHOVE OUT OF
THE WAY FIRST...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS LATE FRIDAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR BOTH DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
RIDGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT WILL
LEAVE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE LEADING TO MORE STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...SKC TO ONLY FEW050 ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN WITH SKC
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NE/E SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT THIS
AFTN WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 15 KT BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 23-00Z TO 5
KT OR LESS. PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR COULD BE PSBL
FOR KHBG 11-14Z. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  94  68  95 /   0   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      64  94  63  96 /   0   6   4   5
VICKSBURG     64  94  67  94 /   0   7  11  12
HATTIESBURG   69  95  69  96 /   4  16  12  11
NATCHEZ       68  92  70  92 /   3  15  17  22
GREENVILLE    68  95  68  96 /   3   4   4   4
GREENWOOD     65  94  66  96 /   1   4   3   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/SW/ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KJAN 261451 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...ROSE POPS A LITTLE IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND INCLUDED
ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THERE THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL MORNING SOUNDINGS BACK UP THE NOTION OF MUCH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL PEAK IN THE SEASONABLY HOT LOWER 90S...BUT
THE NOTICEABLE LACK OF HUMIDITY WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH MORE
TOLERABLE THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF
THE REGION WILL BE SPARSE OWING TO THE MENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
RUNNING NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MS. HERE THERE IS A STRUNG-OUT
BAND OF MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 7 TO 12 KFT GENERATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN THIS ZONE IS RATHER MINIMAL AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM THE BASE OF THESE
CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS POINT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER OR ANYTHING MORE
THAN A SLIGHT IMPACT APPEARS LOW. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
CLOUDCOVER IN THESE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WHILE INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING WITH 10 POPS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN SURFACE OBS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST. GFS MOISTURE FIELDS MATCH UP PRETTY WELL AND SHOW
SUB ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ALREADY APPROACHING EASTERN MS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION...WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY COULD STILL SEND HEAT INDICES UP TO
NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH LESS HEAT STRESS AS WE GO
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN EXCEPTION TO THE DRIER WEATHER COULD BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH THERE
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH AN APPROACHING SEA-BREEZE
FRONT...BUT VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. /EC/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR BOTH DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
RIDGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT WILL
LEAVE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE LEADING TO MORE STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TODAY CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 6 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY
GLH AND GWO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...BUT IMPACT TO
AVIATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL. /EC/BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  94  68 /   2   0   5   5
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  64 /   2   1   3   4
VICKSBURG     92  64  94  67 /   7   0   5   5
HATTIESBURG   92  70  94  70 /   5   4  18  18
NATCHEZ       91  68  92  70 /   8   1  15  15
GREENVILLE    93  69  95  67 /  13   4   0   3
GREENWOOD     93  65  94  65 /  11   0   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/SW






000
FXUS64 KJAN 261451 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...ROSE POPS A LITTLE IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND INCLUDED
ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THERE THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL MORNING SOUNDINGS BACK UP THE NOTION OF MUCH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL PEAK IN THE SEASONABLY HOT LOWER 90S...BUT
THE NOTICEABLE LACK OF HUMIDITY WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH MORE
TOLERABLE THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF
THE REGION WILL BE SPARSE OWING TO THE MENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
RUNNING NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MS. HERE THERE IS A STRUNG-OUT
BAND OF MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 7 TO 12 KFT GENERATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN THIS ZONE IS RATHER MINIMAL AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM THE BASE OF THESE
CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS POINT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER OR ANYTHING MORE
THAN A SLIGHT IMPACT APPEARS LOW. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
CLOUDCOVER IN THESE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WHILE INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING WITH 10 POPS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN SURFACE OBS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST. GFS MOISTURE FIELDS MATCH UP PRETTY WELL AND SHOW
SUB ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ALREADY APPROACHING EASTERN MS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION...WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY COULD STILL SEND HEAT INDICES UP TO
NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH LESS HEAT STRESS AS WE GO
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN EXCEPTION TO THE DRIER WEATHER COULD BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH THERE
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH AN APPROACHING SEA-BREEZE
FRONT...BUT VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. /EC/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR BOTH DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
RIDGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT WILL
LEAVE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE LEADING TO MORE STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TODAY CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 6 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY
GLH AND GWO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...BUT IMPACT TO
AVIATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL. /EC/BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  94  68 /   2   0   5   5
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  64 /   2   1   3   4
VICKSBURG     92  64  94  67 /   7   0   5   5
HATTIESBURG   92  70  94  70 /   5   4  18  18
NATCHEZ       91  68  92  70 /   8   1  15  15
GREENVILLE    93  69  95  67 /  13   4   0   3
GREENWOOD     93  65  94  65 /  11   0   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/SW






000
FXUS64 KJAN 261451 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...ROSE POPS A LITTLE IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND INCLUDED
ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THERE THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL MORNING SOUNDINGS BACK UP THE NOTION OF MUCH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL PEAK IN THE SEASONABLY HOT LOWER 90S...BUT
THE NOTICEABLE LACK OF HUMIDITY WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH MORE
TOLERABLE THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF
THE REGION WILL BE SPARSE OWING TO THE MENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
RUNNING NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MS. HERE THERE IS A STRUNG-OUT
BAND OF MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 7 TO 12 KFT GENERATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN THIS ZONE IS RATHER MINIMAL AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM THE BASE OF THESE
CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS POINT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER OR ANYTHING MORE
THAN A SLIGHT IMPACT APPEARS LOW. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
CLOUDCOVER IN THESE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WHILE INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING WITH 10 POPS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN SURFACE OBS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST. GFS MOISTURE FIELDS MATCH UP PRETTY WELL AND SHOW
SUB ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ALREADY APPROACHING EASTERN MS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION...WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY COULD STILL SEND HEAT INDICES UP TO
NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH LESS HEAT STRESS AS WE GO
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN EXCEPTION TO THE DRIER WEATHER COULD BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH THERE
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH AN APPROACHING SEA-BREEZE
FRONT...BUT VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. /EC/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR BOTH DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
RIDGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT WILL
LEAVE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE LEADING TO MORE STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TODAY CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 6 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY
GLH AND GWO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...BUT IMPACT TO
AVIATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL. /EC/BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  94  68 /   2   0   5   5
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  64 /   2   1   3   4
VICKSBURG     92  64  94  67 /   7   0   5   5
HATTIESBURG   92  70  94  70 /   5   4  18  18
NATCHEZ       91  68  92  70 /   8   1  15  15
GREENVILLE    93  69  95  67 /  13   4   0   3
GREENWOOD     93  65  94  65 /  11   0   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/SW






000
FXUS64 KJAN 261451 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...ROSE POPS A LITTLE IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND INCLUDED
ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THERE THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL MORNING SOUNDINGS BACK UP THE NOTION OF MUCH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL PEAK IN THE SEASONABLY HOT LOWER 90S...BUT
THE NOTICEABLE LACK OF HUMIDITY WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH MORE
TOLERABLE THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF
THE REGION WILL BE SPARSE OWING TO THE MENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
RUNNING NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MS. HERE THERE IS A STRUNG-OUT
BAND OF MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 7 TO 12 KFT GENERATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN THIS ZONE IS RATHER MINIMAL AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM THE BASE OF THESE
CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS POINT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER OR ANYTHING MORE
THAN A SLIGHT IMPACT APPEARS LOW. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
CLOUDCOVER IN THESE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WHILE INCLUDING ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING WITH 10 POPS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN SURFACE OBS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST. GFS MOISTURE FIELDS MATCH UP PRETTY WELL AND SHOW
SUB ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ALREADY APPROACHING EASTERN MS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION...WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY COULD STILL SEND HEAT INDICES UP TO
NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH LESS HEAT STRESS AS WE GO
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN EXCEPTION TO THE DRIER WEATHER COULD BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH THERE
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH AN APPROACHING SEA-BREEZE
FRONT...BUT VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. /EC/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR BOTH DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
RIDGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT WILL
LEAVE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE LEADING TO MORE STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TODAY CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 6 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY
GLH AND GWO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...BUT IMPACT TO
AVIATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL. /EC/BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  94  68 /   2   0   5   5
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  64 /   2   1   3   4
VICKSBURG     92  64  94  67 /   7   0   5   5
HATTIESBURG   92  70  94  70 /   5   4  18  18
NATCHEZ       91  68  92  70 /   8   1  15  15
GREENVILLE    93  69  95  67 /  13   4   0   3
GREENWOOD     93  65  94  65 /  11   0   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/SW






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