Home > Products > State Listing > Mississippi Data
Latest:
 AFDJAN |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KJAN 052105
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WINDING DOWN
WITH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA STILL SEEING
ACTIVITY. EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS IS TO CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND
WITH MUCH OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD QUIET. THE CURRENT FF WATCH WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING FLOODING AND ANY OF THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS. EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR ANOTHER EARLY MORNING ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT WITH A
DIFFERENT AREA OF FOCUS. WHILE AVAILABLE GUID CONTINUES TO OFFER
LITTLE HELP IN THE WAY OF THE FORECAST SPECIFICS...WILL LEAN HEAVILY
ON PERSISTENCE...RAW DATA OF KEY FIELDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.
LIKE PREV MORNINGS...THE LL JET WILL AGAIN GET REESTABLISHED AND
HELP FOCUS THETA E ADV OVER TOP OF THE PREV DAYS COLD POOL.
ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH S/WV ENERGY WILL BE LINGERING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE EXITING MCV TO SUPPORT ASCENT WHILE ANOTHER FABULOUS LOOKING
DIV UPPER JET STRUCTURE GETS SETUP. LL THETA E ADV WILL CONTINUE TO
POINT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF WHAT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WHILE
STEEP LAPSE RATES HELP FUEL A FAVORABLE THERMO ENV. THIS LOOKS TO
AGAIN SPELL A ROUND OF TRAINING STORMS WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THE MAIN AREA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NE WITH THE MAIN TIMEFRAME
FROM 4AM TO NOON. WILL HIGH LIGHT THIS IN THE HWO WITH A LIMITED
RISK. AS THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR ON DEVELOPMENT AN EVOLUTION...A FF
WATCH MAY ALSO BE ISSUED. RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS MON...ISO/SCT SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
AS A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENV WILL DEVELOP. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE LIKE THE PREV DAYS AS
INFLUENCES FROM THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF STORMS. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE UPPER JET CORE INFLUENCE
THE NW CWA MORE AND LIMIT DEEP ASCENT...THUS LESS STORMS. THE MAIN
AREA FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM NATCHEZ TO GRENADA AND POINTS
EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO NE/E. THE THERMO ENV WILL
CONTAIN ROUGHLY 4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 28C.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO ENTER THE PICTURE THUS
SUPPORTING LARGER DCAPE AND LARGE THETA E DIFF FROM ALOFT AND
THE SFC.

DUE TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...POPS WERE INCREASED OVER THE NE FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MON PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE POPS WERE INCREASED FOR MON AFTERNOON (TO 30-40%) WITH THE
FOCUS BEING AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AND FOLLOWED A COOLER GROUP OF GUID. ON MON...WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FOCUS ON COOLER IN THE NE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LOOK FOR MID/UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION AND HELP LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE RESULT OF THIS
WILL BE A WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME WITH MORE READINGS PEAKING
IN THE 90-93 DEGREE RANGE THEN IN THE 92-95 RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING TREND WITH VALUES BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED
IN THE 73-75 DEGREE RANGE BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST STORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 06Z
MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF A FEW PATCHES OF CIGS AROUND 1000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME MVFR FOG IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE INCLUDED TSRA IN THE KGTR TAF FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY STARTING
LATE TONIGHT IN THAT AREA. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  90  72  92 /  21  35   5   9
MERIDIAN      68  89  70  91 /  29  43   9   9
VICKSBURG     71  91  72  92 /  28  23   5   9
HATTIESBURG   70  91  72  92 /  28  40   5   9
NATCHEZ       71  91  73  91 /  33  25   7  11
GREENVILLE    71  91  74  92 /  21  21   6   9
GREENWOOD     70  89  72  90 /  22  36   6  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034-035-
     040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/SW/



000
FXUS64 KJAN 052105
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WINDING DOWN
WITH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA STILL SEEING
ACTIVITY. EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS IS TO CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND
WITH MUCH OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD QUIET. THE CURRENT FF WATCH WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING FLOODING AND ANY OF THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS. EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR ANOTHER EARLY MORNING ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT WITH A
DIFFERENT AREA OF FOCUS. WHILE AVAILABLE GUID CONTINUES TO OFFER
LITTLE HELP IN THE WAY OF THE FORECAST SPECIFICS...WILL LEAN HEAVILY
ON PERSISTENCE...RAW DATA OF KEY FIELDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.
LIKE PREV MORNINGS...THE LL JET WILL AGAIN GET REESTABLISHED AND
HELP FOCUS THETA E ADV OVER TOP OF THE PREV DAYS COLD POOL.
ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH S/WV ENERGY WILL BE LINGERING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE EXITING MCV TO SUPPORT ASCENT WHILE ANOTHER FABULOUS LOOKING
DIV UPPER JET STRUCTURE GETS SETUP. LL THETA E ADV WILL CONTINUE TO
POINT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF WHAT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WHILE
STEEP LAPSE RATES HELP FUEL A FAVORABLE THERMO ENV. THIS LOOKS TO
AGAIN SPELL A ROUND OF TRAINING STORMS WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THE MAIN AREA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NE WITH THE MAIN TIMEFRAME
FROM 4AM TO NOON. WILL HIGH LIGHT THIS IN THE HWO WITH A LIMITED
RISK. AS THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR ON DEVELOPMENT AN EVOLUTION...A FF
WATCH MAY ALSO BE ISSUED. RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS MON...ISO/SCT SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
AS A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENV WILL DEVELOP. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE LIKE THE PREV DAYS AS
INFLUENCES FROM THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF STORMS. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE UPPER JET CORE INFLUENCE
THE NW CWA MORE AND LIMIT DEEP ASCENT...THUS LESS STORMS. THE MAIN
AREA FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM NATCHEZ TO GRENADA AND POINTS
EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO NE/E. THE THERMO ENV WILL
CONTAIN ROUGHLY 4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 28C.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO ENTER THE PICTURE THUS
SUPPORTING LARGER DCAPE AND LARGE THETA E DIFF FROM ALOFT AND
THE SFC.

DUE TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...POPS WERE INCREASED OVER THE NE FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MON PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE POPS WERE INCREASED FOR MON AFTERNOON (TO 30-40%) WITH THE
FOCUS BEING AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AND FOLLOWED A COOLER GROUP OF GUID. ON MON...WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FOCUS ON COOLER IN THE NE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LOOK FOR MID/UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION AND HELP LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE RESULT OF THIS
WILL BE A WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME WITH MORE READINGS PEAKING
IN THE 90-93 DEGREE RANGE THEN IN THE 92-95 RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING TREND WITH VALUES BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED
IN THE 73-75 DEGREE RANGE BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST STORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 06Z
MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF A FEW PATCHES OF CIGS AROUND 1000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME MVFR FOG IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE INCLUDED TSRA IN THE KGTR TAF FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY STARTING
LATE TONIGHT IN THAT AREA. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  90  72  92 /  21  35   5   9
MERIDIAN      68  89  70  91 /  29  43   9   9
VICKSBURG     71  91  72  92 /  28  23   5   9
HATTIESBURG   70  91  72  92 /  28  40   5   9
NATCHEZ       71  91  73  91 /  33  25   7  11
GREENVILLE    71  91  74  92 /  21  21   6   9
GREENWOOD     70  89  72  90 /  22  36   6  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034-035-
     040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/SW/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 052105
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WINDING DOWN
WITH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA STILL SEEING
ACTIVITY. EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS IS TO CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND
WITH MUCH OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD QUIET. THE CURRENT FF WATCH WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING FLOODING AND ANY OF THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS. EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR ANOTHER EARLY MORNING ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT WITH A
DIFFERENT AREA OF FOCUS. WHILE AVAILABLE GUID CONTINUES TO OFFER
LITTLE HELP IN THE WAY OF THE FORECAST SPECIFICS...WILL LEAN HEAVILY
ON PERSISTENCE...RAW DATA OF KEY FIELDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.
LIKE PREV MORNINGS...THE LL JET WILL AGAIN GET REESTABLISHED AND
HELP FOCUS THETA E ADV OVER TOP OF THE PREV DAYS COLD POOL.
ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH S/WV ENERGY WILL BE LINGERING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE EXITING MCV TO SUPPORT ASCENT WHILE ANOTHER FABULOUS LOOKING
DIV UPPER JET STRUCTURE GETS SETUP. LL THETA E ADV WILL CONTINUE TO
POINT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF WHAT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WHILE
STEEP LAPSE RATES HELP FUEL A FAVORABLE THERMO ENV. THIS LOOKS TO
AGAIN SPELL A ROUND OF TRAINING STORMS WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THE MAIN AREA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NE WITH THE MAIN TIMEFRAME
FROM 4AM TO NOON. WILL HIGH LIGHT THIS IN THE HWO WITH A LIMITED
RISK. AS THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR ON DEVELOPMENT AN EVOLUTION...A FF
WATCH MAY ALSO BE ISSUED. RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS MON...ISO/SCT SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
AS A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENV WILL DEVELOP. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE LIKE THE PREV DAYS AS
INFLUENCES FROM THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF STORMS. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE UPPER JET CORE INFLUENCE
THE NW CWA MORE AND LIMIT DEEP ASCENT...THUS LESS STORMS. THE MAIN
AREA FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM NATCHEZ TO GRENADA AND POINTS
EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO NE/E. THE THERMO ENV WILL
CONTAIN ROUGHLY 4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 28C.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO ENTER THE PICTURE THUS
SUPPORTING LARGER DCAPE AND LARGE THETA E DIFF FROM ALOFT AND
THE SFC.

DUE TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...POPS WERE INCREASED OVER THE NE FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MON PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE POPS WERE INCREASED FOR MON AFTERNOON (TO 30-40%) WITH THE
FOCUS BEING AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AND FOLLOWED A COOLER GROUP OF GUID. ON MON...WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FOCUS ON COOLER IN THE NE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LOOK FOR MID/UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION AND HELP LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE RESULT OF THIS
WILL BE A WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME WITH MORE READINGS PEAKING
IN THE 90-93 DEGREE RANGE THEN IN THE 92-95 RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING TREND WITH VALUES BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED
IN THE 73-75 DEGREE RANGE BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST STORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 06Z
MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF A FEW PATCHES OF CIGS AROUND 1000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME MVFR FOG IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE INCLUDED TSRA IN THE KGTR TAF FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY STARTING
LATE TONIGHT IN THAT AREA. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  90  72  92 /  21  35   5   9
MERIDIAN      68  89  70  91 /  29  43   9   9
VICKSBURG     71  91  72  92 /  28  23   5   9
HATTIESBURG   70  91  72  92 /  28  40   5   9
NATCHEZ       71  91  73  91 /  33  25   7  11
GREENVILLE    71  91  74  92 /  21  21   6   9
GREENWOOD     70  89  72  90 /  22  36   6  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034-035-
     040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/SW/



000
FXUS64 KJAN 052105
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WINDING DOWN
WITH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA STILL SEEING
ACTIVITY. EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS IS TO CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND
WITH MUCH OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD QUIET. THE CURRENT FF WATCH WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING FLOODING AND ANY OF THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS. EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR ANOTHER EARLY MORNING ROUND OF STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT WITH A
DIFFERENT AREA OF FOCUS. WHILE AVAILABLE GUID CONTINUES TO OFFER
LITTLE HELP IN THE WAY OF THE FORECAST SPECIFICS...WILL LEAN HEAVILY
ON PERSISTENCE...RAW DATA OF KEY FIELDS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.
LIKE PREV MORNINGS...THE LL JET WILL AGAIN GET REESTABLISHED AND
HELP FOCUS THETA E ADV OVER TOP OF THE PREV DAYS COLD POOL.
ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH S/WV ENERGY WILL BE LINGERING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE EXITING MCV TO SUPPORT ASCENT WHILE ANOTHER FABULOUS LOOKING
DIV UPPER JET STRUCTURE GETS SETUP. LL THETA E ADV WILL CONTINUE TO
POINT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF WHAT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WHILE
STEEP LAPSE RATES HELP FUEL A FAVORABLE THERMO ENV. THIS LOOKS TO
AGAIN SPELL A ROUND OF TRAINING STORMS WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THE MAIN AREA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NE WITH THE MAIN TIMEFRAME
FROM 4AM TO NOON. WILL HIGH LIGHT THIS IN THE HWO WITH A LIMITED
RISK. AS THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR ON DEVELOPMENT AN EVOLUTION...A FF
WATCH MAY ALSO BE ISSUED. RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS MON...ISO/SCT SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
AS A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENV WILL DEVELOP. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE LIKE THE PREV DAYS AS
INFLUENCES FROM THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF STORMS. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE UPPER JET CORE INFLUENCE
THE NW CWA MORE AND LIMIT DEEP ASCENT...THUS LESS STORMS. THE MAIN
AREA FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM NATCHEZ TO GRENADA AND POINTS
EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO NE/E. THE THERMO ENV WILL
CONTAIN ROUGHLY 4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 28C.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO ENTER THE PICTURE THUS
SUPPORTING LARGER DCAPE AND LARGE THETA E DIFF FROM ALOFT AND
THE SFC.

DUE TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...POPS WERE INCREASED OVER THE NE FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MON PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE POPS WERE INCREASED FOR MON AFTERNOON (TO 30-40%) WITH THE
FOCUS BEING AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AND FOLLOWED A COOLER GROUP OF GUID. ON MON...WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FOCUS ON COOLER IN THE NE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LOOK FOR MID/UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION AND HELP LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE RESULT OF THIS
WILL BE A WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME WITH MORE READINGS PEAKING
IN THE 90-93 DEGREE RANGE THEN IN THE 92-95 RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING TREND WITH VALUES BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED
IN THE 73-75 DEGREE RANGE BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST STORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 06Z
MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF A FEW PATCHES OF CIGS AROUND 1000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME MVFR FOG IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE INCLUDED TSRA IN THE KGTR TAF FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY STARTING
LATE TONIGHT IN THAT AREA. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  90  72  92 /  21  35   5   9
MERIDIAN      68  89  70  91 /  29  43   9   9
VICKSBURG     71  91  72  92 /  28  23   5   9
HATTIESBURG   70  91  72  92 /  28  40   5   9
NATCHEZ       71  91  73  91 /  33  25   7  11
GREENVILLE    71  91  74  92 /  21  21   6   9
GREENWOOD     70  89  72  90 /  22  36   6  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034-035-
     040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/SW/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 051511 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...ACTIVE MORNING WITH TRAINING CONVECTION IN THIS NW
FLOW REGIME. VERY FAVORABLE SETUP IN PLACE WITH A VERY DIVERGENT
UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH LOW LEVEL THETA E ADV FOCUSED INTO THE BACK
OF THE EVOLVING STORM COMPLEX. CURRENT INDICATIONS (ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR) SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE W-
CENTRAL AND NW CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR BASED OFF RADAR
ESTIMATES...LOCALIZED AREAS HAVE SEEN 3-6 INCHES. WITH THE TRAINING
SETUP...I EXPECT A FEW MORE POCKETS OF 2-5 INCHES WITH SOME OF THAT
OCCURRING OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL INCHES. I
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORM TOTALS FROM JUST THIS MORNING IN THE 7-
10 INCH RANGE. DUE TO THIS...HAVE ADDED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. WE WILL EXPAND IF NEEDED...BUT FEEL THE CURRENT
AREA COVER THE THREAT WELL. AS FOR SEVERE STORMS...ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE TO OUR W/SW AND FEEL AS SFC HEATING GETS GOING...ACTIVITY
OVER THAT AREA WILL INCREASE WHILE THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE GETTING
THE HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING WILL SEE ACTIVITY WANE SOME. WE HAVE
INCREASED SOME OF THE W/SW AREA FOR THE LIMITED SEVERE RISK WHILE
INCREASING THE FLOODING RISK TO COVER MORE AREA AND WE HAVE ADDED AN
ELEVATED RISK AREA.

THE MAIN FORECAST ADJ WAS TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TREND/FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE W/SW/S FOR LATER IN THE DAY. HOURLY
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED TO MATCH TRENDS AS WELL. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH MULTIPLE SITES
EXPERIENCING VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO MAKE NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS DUE TO
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  71  89  71 / 100  29  18   7
MERIDIAN      83  67  87  69 / 100  39  35  14
VICKSBURG     83  72  90  71 / 100  22  12   5
HATTIESBURG   86  70  90  70 /  72  29  20   9
NATCHEZ       86  72  91  73 /  72  19  11   5
GREENVILLE    85  72  90  73 /  96  25  16   6
GREENWOOD     85  69  88  71 /  57  32  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ034-035-
     040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/02/



000
FXUS64 KJAN 051511 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...ACTIVE MORNING WITH TRAINING CONVECTION IN THIS NW
FLOW REGIME. VERY FAVORABLE SETUP IN PLACE WITH A VERY DIVERGENT
UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH LOW LEVEL THETA E ADV FOCUSED INTO THE BACK
OF THE EVOLVING STORM COMPLEX. CURRENT INDICATIONS (ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR) SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE W-
CENTRAL AND NW CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR BASED OFF RADAR
ESTIMATES...LOCALIZED AREAS HAVE SEEN 3-6 INCHES. WITH THE TRAINING
SETUP...I EXPECT A FEW MORE POCKETS OF 2-5 INCHES WITH SOME OF THAT
OCCURRING OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL INCHES. I
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORM TOTALS FROM JUST THIS MORNING IN THE 7-
10 INCH RANGE. DUE TO THIS...HAVE ADDED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. WE WILL EXPAND IF NEEDED...BUT FEEL THE CURRENT
AREA COVER THE THREAT WELL. AS FOR SEVERE STORMS...ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE TO OUR W/SW AND FEEL AS SFC HEATING GETS GOING...ACTIVITY
OVER THAT AREA WILL INCREASE WHILE THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE GETTING
THE HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING WILL SEE ACTIVITY WANE SOME. WE HAVE
INCREASED SOME OF THE W/SW AREA FOR THE LIMITED SEVERE RISK WHILE
INCREASING THE FLOODING RISK TO COVER MORE AREA AND WE HAVE ADDED AN
ELEVATED RISK AREA.

THE MAIN FORECAST ADJ WAS TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TREND/FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE W/SW/S FOR LATER IN THE DAY. HOURLY
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED TO MATCH TRENDS AS WELL. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH MULTIPLE SITES
EXPERIENCING VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO MAKE NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS DUE TO
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  71  89  71 / 100  29  18   7
MERIDIAN      83  67  87  69 / 100  39  35  14
VICKSBURG     83  72  90  71 / 100  22  12   5
HATTIESBURG   86  70  90  70 /  72  29  20   9
NATCHEZ       86  72  91  73 /  72  19  11   5
GREENVILLE    85  72  90  73 /  96  25  16   6
GREENWOOD     85  69  88  71 /  57  32  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ034-035-
     040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/02/



000
FXUS64 KJAN 051511 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...ACTIVE MORNING WITH TRAINING CONVECTION IN THIS NW
FLOW REGIME. VERY FAVORABLE SETUP IN PLACE WITH A VERY DIVERGENT
UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH LOW LEVEL THETA E ADV FOCUSED INTO THE BACK
OF THE EVOLVING STORM COMPLEX. CURRENT INDICATIONS (ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR) SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE W-
CENTRAL AND NW CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR BASED OFF RADAR
ESTIMATES...LOCALIZED AREAS HAVE SEEN 3-6 INCHES. WITH THE TRAINING
SETUP...I EXPECT A FEW MORE POCKETS OF 2-5 INCHES WITH SOME OF THAT
OCCURRING OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL INCHES. I
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORM TOTALS FROM JUST THIS MORNING IN THE 7-
10 INCH RANGE. DUE TO THIS...HAVE ADDED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. WE WILL EXPAND IF NEEDED...BUT FEEL THE CURRENT
AREA COVER THE THREAT WELL. AS FOR SEVERE STORMS...ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE TO OUR W/SW AND FEEL AS SFC HEATING GETS GOING...ACTIVITY
OVER THAT AREA WILL INCREASE WHILE THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE GETTING
THE HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING WILL SEE ACTIVITY WANE SOME. WE HAVE
INCREASED SOME OF THE W/SW AREA FOR THE LIMITED SEVERE RISK WHILE
INCREASING THE FLOODING RISK TO COVER MORE AREA AND WE HAVE ADDED AN
ELEVATED RISK AREA.

THE MAIN FORECAST ADJ WAS TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TREND/FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE W/SW/S FOR LATER IN THE DAY. HOURLY
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED TO MATCH TRENDS AS WELL. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH MULTIPLE SITES
EXPERIENCING VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO MAKE NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS DUE TO
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  71  89  71 / 100  29  18   7
MERIDIAN      83  67  87  69 / 100  39  35  14
VICKSBURG     83  72  90  71 / 100  22  12   5
HATTIESBURG   86  70  90  70 /  72  29  20   9
NATCHEZ       86  72  91  73 /  72  19  11   5
GREENVILLE    85  72  90  73 /  96  25  16   6
GREENWOOD     85  69  88  71 /  57  32  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ034-035-
     040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/02/



000
FXUS64 KJAN 051511 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...ACTIVE MORNING WITH TRAINING CONVECTION IN THIS NW
FLOW REGIME. VERY FAVORABLE SETUP IN PLACE WITH A VERY DIVERGENT
UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH LOW LEVEL THETA E ADV FOCUSED INTO THE BACK
OF THE EVOLVING STORM COMPLEX. CURRENT INDICATIONS (ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR) SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE W-
CENTRAL AND NW CWA THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR BASED OFF RADAR
ESTIMATES...LOCALIZED AREAS HAVE SEEN 3-6 INCHES. WITH THE TRAINING
SETUP...I EXPECT A FEW MORE POCKETS OF 2-5 INCHES WITH SOME OF THAT
OCCURRING OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL INCHES. I
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORM TOTALS FROM JUST THIS MORNING IN THE 7-
10 INCH RANGE. DUE TO THIS...HAVE ADDED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. WE WILL EXPAND IF NEEDED...BUT FEEL THE CURRENT
AREA COVER THE THREAT WELL. AS FOR SEVERE STORMS...ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE TO OUR W/SW AND FEEL AS SFC HEATING GETS GOING...ACTIVITY
OVER THAT AREA WILL INCREASE WHILE THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE GETTING
THE HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING WILL SEE ACTIVITY WANE SOME. WE HAVE
INCREASED SOME OF THE W/SW AREA FOR THE LIMITED SEVERE RISK WHILE
INCREASING THE FLOODING RISK TO COVER MORE AREA AND WE HAVE ADDED AN
ELEVATED RISK AREA.

THE MAIN FORECAST ADJ WAS TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN
TREND/FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE W/SW/S FOR LATER IN THE DAY. HOURLY
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED TO MATCH TRENDS AS WELL. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH MULTIPLE SITES
EXPERIENCING VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO MAKE NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS DUE TO
RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  71  89  71 / 100  29  18   7
MERIDIAN      83  67  87  69 / 100  39  35  14
VICKSBURG     83  72  90  71 / 100  22  12   5
HATTIESBURG   86  70  90  70 /  72  29  20   9
NATCHEZ       86  72  91  73 /  72  19  11   5
GREENVILLE    85  72  90  73 /  96  25  16   6
GREENWOOD     85  69  88  71 /  57  32  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ034-035-
     040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/02/



000
FXUS64 KJAN 050935
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DOGGED UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION EARLY THIS MORNING MADE OBVIOUS BY ROTATING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DESPITE THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINNING TO BE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL STILL BE
CONSIDERABLE TODAY. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW TO TRAIL ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
REGION...HELPING TO INSTIGATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POSITION OF CONVECTION REVEALS THAT HIRES
MODEL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH FINE DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE
PLACEMENT...MAINLY SINCE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS GROWING MORE SUBTLE AND
THEREFORE MAKING THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS PRONE TO LARGE CHANGES BASED
ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. MANY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT BY
NOW IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ZONES...BUT BY FAR THE MOST VIGOROUS
AND ORGANIZED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN AND ARE
NOW TRYING TO PUSH IN WEST-CENTRAL AL.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
TO MIDDAY HOURS TO LIMIT HEATING IN MANY LOCATIONS...THUS HELPING TO
KEEP INSTABILITY FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND IN MOST SPOTS. THAT IS
GOOD SINCE ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR LEVELS FOR MID-SUMMER COULD HELP KICK
UP SOME SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY WAS HIGH. HOWEVER...EXPECTED
PARAMETER SPACE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN ZONES IS STILL A BIT
WORRISOME BECAUSE THERE ML CAPE VALUES MIGHT APPROACH 3000
J/KG...BOOSTED BY INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. IN THOSE
SOUTHERN AREAS THE POTENTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBO SEEMS
SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A LIMITED SEVERE RISK IN THE HWO. ALSO FOR
THOSE SAME AREAS WE WILL MENTION A LIMITED RISK OF FLASH FLOOD SINCE
SOME OF THAT AREA GOT SOAKED YESTERDAY AND COULD END UP WITH A LARGE
DOUSING AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING GRADUALLY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
TRAILING LOOSE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL STILL RUN ACROSS THE
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
VERY WELL BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE EVENING BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR LATE NIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT YET
AGAIN. AT THIS POINT NOTHING WAS INCLUDED FOR THAT PERIOD OF THE HWO
SINCE UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS IS LARGE AND INGREDIENTS FOR FOCUSED
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
DECREASING.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVING FURTHER
EAST. THE TRAILING CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND AT
LEAST IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS THROUGH MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR REGION BY EVENING.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
WESTERN ZONES WILL BE DRYING OUT AND STARTING THE GRADUAL PROCESS OF
HEATING UP. /BB/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE AND
WET NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME....THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ON TUESDAY A FRONT LOOKS TO BE
NEARING THE REGION BUT NEVER QUITE MAKES IT IN AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FRONT PUSHED OFF TO OUR NORTH AND MOST OF THE RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE RECENT RAINS MAY LIMIT HOW QUICKLY WE HEAT
UP THROUGH THE WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90-95 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES REACH BACK CLOSE TO THE CENTURY
MARK BY MID-WEEK AND PERHAPS NEAR 105 DEGREES BY WEEKS END.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF.
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED AND POPS ARE KEPT RATHER LOW DURING THE
PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS TEXAS AND HEADING WEST TOWARD THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE REGION. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FLIGHT CATS DUE TO CEILINGS AND/OR FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST
SPOTS WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME VERY LOCALIZED AND
RATHER BRIEF IFR ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAINLY 10 MPH OR LESS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  71  89  71 /  59  29  18   7
MERIDIAN      83  67  87  69 /  54  39  35  14
VICKSBURG     83  72  90  71 /  64  22  12   5
HATTIESBURG   86  70  90  70 /  64  29  20   9
NATCHEZ       86  72  91  73 /  63  19  11   5
GREENVILLE    85  72  90  73 /  41  25  16   6
GREENWOOD     85  69  88  71 /  27  32  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28



000
FXUS64 KJAN 050935
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DOGGED UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION EARLY THIS MORNING MADE OBVIOUS BY ROTATING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DESPITE THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINNING TO BE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL STILL BE
CONSIDERABLE TODAY. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW TO TRAIL ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
REGION...HELPING TO INSTIGATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POSITION OF CONVECTION REVEALS THAT HIRES
MODEL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH FINE DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE
PLACEMENT...MAINLY SINCE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS GROWING MORE SUBTLE AND
THEREFORE MAKING THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS PRONE TO LARGE CHANGES BASED
ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. MANY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT BY
NOW IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ZONES...BUT BY FAR THE MOST VIGOROUS
AND ORGANIZED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN AND ARE
NOW TRYING TO PUSH IN WEST-CENTRAL AL.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
TO MIDDAY HOURS TO LIMIT HEATING IN MANY LOCATIONS...THUS HELPING TO
KEEP INSTABILITY FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND IN MOST SPOTS. THAT IS
GOOD SINCE ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR LEVELS FOR MID-SUMMER COULD HELP KICK
UP SOME SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY WAS HIGH. HOWEVER...EXPECTED
PARAMETER SPACE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN ZONES IS STILL A BIT
WORRISOME BECAUSE THERE ML CAPE VALUES MIGHT APPROACH 3000
J/KG...BOOSTED BY INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. IN THOSE
SOUTHERN AREAS THE POTENTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBO SEEMS
SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A LIMITED SEVERE RISK IN THE HWO. ALSO FOR
THOSE SAME AREAS WE WILL MENTION A LIMITED RISK OF FLASH FLOOD SINCE
SOME OF THAT AREA GOT SOAKED YESTERDAY AND COULD END UP WITH A LARGE
DOUSING AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING GRADUALLY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
TRAILING LOOSE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL STILL RUN ACROSS THE
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
VERY WELL BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE EVENING BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR LATE NIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT YET
AGAIN. AT THIS POINT NOTHING WAS INCLUDED FOR THAT PERIOD OF THE HWO
SINCE UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS IS LARGE AND INGREDIENTS FOR FOCUSED
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
DECREASING.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVING FURTHER
EAST. THE TRAILING CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND AT
LEAST IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS THROUGH MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR REGION BY EVENING.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
WESTERN ZONES WILL BE DRYING OUT AND STARTING THE GRADUAL PROCESS OF
HEATING UP. /BB/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE AND
WET NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME....THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ON TUESDAY A FRONT LOOKS TO BE
NEARING THE REGION BUT NEVER QUITE MAKES IT IN AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FRONT PUSHED OFF TO OUR NORTH AND MOST OF THE RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE RECENT RAINS MAY LIMIT HOW QUICKLY WE HEAT
UP THROUGH THE WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90-95 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES REACH BACK CLOSE TO THE CENTURY
MARK BY MID-WEEK AND PERHAPS NEAR 105 DEGREES BY WEEKS END.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF.
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED AND POPS ARE KEPT RATHER LOW DURING THE
PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS TEXAS AND HEADING WEST TOWARD THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE REGION. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FLIGHT CATS DUE TO CEILINGS AND/OR FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST
SPOTS WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME VERY LOCALIZED AND
RATHER BRIEF IFR ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAINLY 10 MPH OR LESS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  71  89  71 /  59  29  18   7
MERIDIAN      83  67  87  69 /  54  39  35  14
VICKSBURG     83  72  90  71 /  64  22  12   5
HATTIESBURG   86  70  90  70 /  64  29  20   9
NATCHEZ       86  72  91  73 /  63  19  11   5
GREENVILLE    85  72  90  73 /  41  25  16   6
GREENWOOD     85  69  88  71 /  27  32  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28



000
FXUS64 KJAN 050935
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DOGGED UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION EARLY THIS MORNING MADE OBVIOUS BY ROTATING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DESPITE THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINNING TO BE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL STILL BE
CONSIDERABLE TODAY. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW TO TRAIL ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
REGION...HELPING TO INSTIGATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POSITION OF CONVECTION REVEALS THAT HIRES
MODEL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH FINE DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE
PLACEMENT...MAINLY SINCE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS GROWING MORE SUBTLE AND
THEREFORE MAKING THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS PRONE TO LARGE CHANGES BASED
ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. MANY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT BY
NOW IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ZONES...BUT BY FAR THE MOST VIGOROUS
AND ORGANIZED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN AND ARE
NOW TRYING TO PUSH IN WEST-CENTRAL AL.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
TO MIDDAY HOURS TO LIMIT HEATING IN MANY LOCATIONS...THUS HELPING TO
KEEP INSTABILITY FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND IN MOST SPOTS. THAT IS
GOOD SINCE ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR LEVELS FOR MID-SUMMER COULD HELP KICK
UP SOME SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY WAS HIGH. HOWEVER...EXPECTED
PARAMETER SPACE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN ZONES IS STILL A BIT
WORRISOME BECAUSE THERE ML CAPE VALUES MIGHT APPROACH 3000
J/KG...BOOSTED BY INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. IN THOSE
SOUTHERN AREAS THE POTENTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBO SEEMS
SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A LIMITED SEVERE RISK IN THE HWO. ALSO FOR
THOSE SAME AREAS WE WILL MENTION A LIMITED RISK OF FLASH FLOOD SINCE
SOME OF THAT AREA GOT SOAKED YESTERDAY AND COULD END UP WITH A LARGE
DOUSING AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING GRADUALLY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
TRAILING LOOSE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL STILL RUN ACROSS THE
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
VERY WELL BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE EVENING BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR LATE NIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT YET
AGAIN. AT THIS POINT NOTHING WAS INCLUDED FOR THAT PERIOD OF THE HWO
SINCE UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS IS LARGE AND INGREDIENTS FOR FOCUSED
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
DECREASING.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVING FURTHER
EAST. THE TRAILING CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND AT
LEAST IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS THROUGH MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR REGION BY EVENING.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
WESTERN ZONES WILL BE DRYING OUT AND STARTING THE GRADUAL PROCESS OF
HEATING UP. /BB/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE AND
WET NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME....THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ON TUESDAY A FRONT LOOKS TO BE
NEARING THE REGION BUT NEVER QUITE MAKES IT IN AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FRONT PUSHED OFF TO OUR NORTH AND MOST OF THE RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE RECENT RAINS MAY LIMIT HOW QUICKLY WE HEAT
UP THROUGH THE WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90-95 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES REACH BACK CLOSE TO THE CENTURY
MARK BY MID-WEEK AND PERHAPS NEAR 105 DEGREES BY WEEKS END.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF.
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED AND POPS ARE KEPT RATHER LOW DURING THE
PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS TEXAS AND HEADING WEST TOWARD THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE REGION. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FLIGHT CATS DUE TO CEILINGS AND/OR FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST
SPOTS WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME VERY LOCALIZED AND
RATHER BRIEF IFR ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAINLY 10 MPH OR LESS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  71  89  71 /  59  29  18   7
MERIDIAN      83  67  87  69 /  54  39  35  14
VICKSBURG     83  72  90  71 /  64  22  12   5
HATTIESBURG   86  70  90  70 /  64  29  20   9
NATCHEZ       86  72  91  73 /  63  19  11   5
GREENVILLE    85  72  90  73 /  41  25  16   6
GREENWOOD     85  69  88  71 /  27  32  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28



000
FXUS64 KJAN 050935
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DOGGED UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION EARLY THIS MORNING MADE OBVIOUS BY ROTATING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. DESPITE THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINNING TO BE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL STILL BE
CONSIDERABLE TODAY. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW TO TRAIL ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
REGION...HELPING TO INSTIGATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT POSITION OF CONVECTION REVEALS THAT HIRES
MODEL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH FINE DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE
PLACEMENT...MAINLY SINCE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS GROWING MORE SUBTLE AND
THEREFORE MAKING THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS PRONE TO LARGE CHANGES BASED
ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. MANY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT BY
NOW IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ZONES...BUT BY FAR THE MOST VIGOROUS
AND ORGANIZED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN AND ARE
NOW TRYING TO PUSH IN WEST-CENTRAL AL.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
TO MIDDAY HOURS TO LIMIT HEATING IN MANY LOCATIONS...THUS HELPING TO
KEEP INSTABILITY FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND IN MOST SPOTS. THAT IS
GOOD SINCE ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR LEVELS FOR MID-SUMMER COULD HELP KICK
UP SOME SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY WAS HIGH. HOWEVER...EXPECTED
PARAMETER SPACE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN ZONES IS STILL A BIT
WORRISOME BECAUSE THERE ML CAPE VALUES MIGHT APPROACH 3000
J/KG...BOOSTED BY INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. IN THOSE
SOUTHERN AREAS THE POTENTIAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBO SEEMS
SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A LIMITED SEVERE RISK IN THE HWO. ALSO FOR
THOSE SAME AREAS WE WILL MENTION A LIMITED RISK OF FLASH FLOOD SINCE
SOME OF THAT AREA GOT SOAKED YESTERDAY AND COULD END UP WITH A LARGE
DOUSING AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING GRADUALLY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
TRAILING LOOSE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL STILL RUN ACROSS THE
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
VERY WELL BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN THE EVENING BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR LATE NIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT YET
AGAIN. AT THIS POINT NOTHING WAS INCLUDED FOR THAT PERIOD OF THE HWO
SINCE UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS IS LARGE AND INGREDIENTS FOR FOCUSED
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
DECREASING.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVING FURTHER
EAST. THE TRAILING CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND AT
LEAST IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS THROUGH MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR REGION BY EVENING.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN ZONES ALTHOUGH
WESTERN ZONES WILL BE DRYING OUT AND STARTING THE GRADUAL PROCESS OF
HEATING UP. /BB/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE AND
WET NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME....THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ON TUESDAY A FRONT LOOKS TO BE
NEARING THE REGION BUT NEVER QUITE MAKES IT IN AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FRONT PUSHED OFF TO OUR NORTH AND MOST OF THE RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE RECENT RAINS MAY LIMIT HOW QUICKLY WE HEAT
UP THROUGH THE WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90-95 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES REACH BACK CLOSE TO THE CENTURY
MARK BY MID-WEEK AND PERHAPS NEAR 105 DEGREES BY WEEKS END.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF.
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED AND POPS ARE KEPT RATHER LOW DURING THE
PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS TEXAS AND HEADING WEST TOWARD THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO SNEAK INTO THE REGION. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FLIGHT CATS DUE TO CEILINGS AND/OR FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST
SPOTS WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME VERY LOCALIZED AND
RATHER BRIEF IFR ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAINLY 10 MPH OR LESS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  71  89  71 /  59  29  18   7
MERIDIAN      83  67  87  69 /  54  39  35  14
VICKSBURG     83  72  90  71 /  64  22  12   5
HATTIESBURG   86  70  90  70 /  64  29  20   9
NATCHEZ       86  72  91  73 /  63  19  11   5
GREENVILLE    85  72  90  73 /  41  25  16   6
GREENWOOD     85  69  88  71 /  27  32  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28



000
FXUS64 KJAN 050445 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE... DID A QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY ADJUST POPS AND WX THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE REGION IS FOCUSED IN
THE HEART OF A CONVECTIVE LULL IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER
TODAY WITH MAIN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING IN AN ARC FROM
CENTRAL AL SOUTHWEST TO LAKE PONCHATRAIN...AND THEN NORTHWEST TO THE
ARKLATEX. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS NEXT INCOMING LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH OVERHEAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL SPARK MOISTURE ADVECTION
SOMEWHERE ALONG AND/OR SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AT WHICH POINT POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASES A GREAT DEAL. POPS IN THIS
TIME FRAME FOCUSED ON THIS MENTIONED AXIS AND REDUCED ELSEWHERE. OF
COURSE SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY BUT UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING A BIT
MUCH TO WARRANT TRYING TO PINPOINT JUST YET IN THE HWO. MAY DO THAT
WITH THE OFFICIAL EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. UPDATES OUT THE DOOR. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO CATCH THE
RAIN THAT LOOKS TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST A RETROGRADING SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA...WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MAY ADJUST THE FORECAST
TO MAKE RAIN LIKELY EVERY WHERE OVERNIGHT OR LEAST INCREASE POPS IN
THE SOUTH. WILL TWEAK HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WERE GOOD./7/

AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WL AFFECT HKS/JAN 01-03Z
THEN HBG 03-05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z BUT DIFFER ON WHERE.
OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  84  72  89 /  37  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  29  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     70  85  73  91 /  54  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   71  84  73  91 /  50  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       71  87  73  90 /  59  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  20  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     68  85  71  89 /  18  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/7/22



000
FXUS64 KJAN 050445 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE... DID A QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY ADJUST POPS AND WX THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE REGION IS FOCUSED IN
THE HEART OF A CONVECTIVE LULL IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER
TODAY WITH MAIN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING IN AN ARC FROM
CENTRAL AL SOUTHWEST TO LAKE PONCHATRAIN...AND THEN NORTHWEST TO THE
ARKLATEX. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS NEXT INCOMING LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH OVERHEAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL SPARK MOISTURE ADVECTION
SOMEWHERE ALONG AND/OR SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AT WHICH POINT POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASES A GREAT DEAL. POPS IN THIS
TIME FRAME FOCUSED ON THIS MENTIONED AXIS AND REDUCED ELSEWHERE. OF
COURSE SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY BUT UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING A BIT
MUCH TO WARRANT TRYING TO PINPOINT JUST YET IN THE HWO. MAY DO THAT
WITH THE OFFICIAL EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. UPDATES OUT THE DOOR. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO CATCH THE
RAIN THAT LOOKS TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST A RETROGRADING SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA...WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MAY ADJUST THE FORECAST
TO MAKE RAIN LIKELY EVERY WHERE OVERNIGHT OR LEAST INCREASE POPS IN
THE SOUTH. WILL TWEAK HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WERE GOOD./7/

AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WL AFFECT HKS/JAN 01-03Z
THEN HBG 03-05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z BUT DIFFER ON WHERE.
OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  84  72  89 /  37  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  29  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     70  85  73  91 /  54  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   71  84  73  91 /  50  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       71  87  73  90 /  59  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  20  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     68  85  71  89 /  18  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/7/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 050218
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO CATCH THE
RAIN THAT LOOKS TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST A RETROGRADING SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA...WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MAY ADJUST THE FORECAST
TO MAKE RAIN LIKELY EVERY WHERE OVERNIGHT OR LEAST INCREASE POPS IN
THE SOUTH. WILL TWEAK HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WERE GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WL AFFECT HKS/JAN 01-03Z
THEN HBG 03-05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z BUT DIFFER ON WHERE.
OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  84  72  89 /  77  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  80  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     72  85  73  91 /  72  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   73  84  73  91 /  63  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       73  87  73  90 /  42  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  77  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     71  85  71  89 /  76  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 050218
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO CATCH THE
RAIN THAT LOOKS TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST A RETROGRADING SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA...WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MAY ADJUST THE FORECAST
TO MAKE RAIN LIKELY EVERY WHERE OVERNIGHT OR LEAST INCREASE POPS IN
THE SOUTH. WILL TWEAK HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WERE GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WL AFFECT HKS/JAN 01-03Z
THEN HBG 03-05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z BUT DIFFER ON WHERE.
OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  84  72  89 /  77  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  80  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     72  85  73  91 /  72  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   73  84  73  91 /  63  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       73  87  73  90 /  42  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  77  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     71  85  71  89 /  76  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 050218
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO CATCH THE
RAIN THAT LOOKS TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST A RETROGRADING SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA...WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MAY ADJUST THE FORECAST
TO MAKE RAIN LIKELY EVERY WHERE OVERNIGHT OR LEAST INCREASE POPS IN
THE SOUTH. WILL TWEAK HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WERE GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WL AFFECT HKS/JAN 01-03Z
THEN HBG 03-05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z BUT DIFFER ON WHERE.
OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  84  72  89 /  77  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  80  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     72  85  73  91 /  72  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   73  84  73  91 /  63  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       73  87  73  90 /  42  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  77  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     71  85  71  89 /  76  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 050218
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO CATCH THE
RAIN THAT LOOKS TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST A RETROGRADING SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA...WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MAY ADJUST THE FORECAST
TO MAKE RAIN LIKELY EVERY WHERE OVERNIGHT OR LEAST INCREASE POPS IN
THE SOUTH. WILL TWEAK HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WERE GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WL AFFECT HKS/JAN 01-03Z
THEN HBG 03-05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z BUT DIFFER ON WHERE.
OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  84  72  89 /  77  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  80  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     72  85  73  91 /  72  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   73  84  73  91 /  63  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       73  87  73  90 /  42  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  77  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     71  85  71  89 /  76  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 042116
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS AS A
COUPLE MORE EARLY MORNING STORM COMPLEXES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS NW
FLOW REGIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE THERMO ENV WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS AND DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING COLD POOLS
EVOLVE...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO EXIST.

WHAT IS LEFT AFTER MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS A WELL
DEFINED MCV OVER N MS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED EAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS BACK TO THE SW AND WEST
ALONG THE STALLED COLD POOL. INDICATIONS ARE THE PRECIP OVER THE SE
WILL PUSH EAST WHILE THE ACTIVITY TO OUR W/SW WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVE. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE
GFS/EURO WHILE OTHER GUID IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE. THIS SORT OF PATTERN
IS ONE THAT FITS THE OVERNIGHT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS WELL AS
SUPPORTS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE TRAINING OF STORM CELLS. MOST NEAR
TERM GUID SHOWS A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RECOVERY OF THE
THETA E AXIS A TOP THE OLD COLD POOL. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LL JET GETS ESTABLISHED. THE KEY IS WHERE MAY
THIS FORM. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PINPOINT AN AREA...BUT WE
FEEL SOMEWHERE N OF I-20 HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL. WHILE A SEVERE
STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE CANCELLED THE PREV FF WATCH AS THE THREAT HAD
DIMINISHED. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A NEW ONE AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE THIS THREAT AND
ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED. SOMETHING SIMILAR MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MON MORNING...BUT THIS WILL HING ON HOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON
SUN AND WE WILL EVALUATE THIS THREAT DURING LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE SEVERE STORM RISK...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INTO TUE
AS COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT CAN
REMAIN UNCONTAMINATED FROM MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...WILL HAVE SOME RISK EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT OPT TO HIGHLIGHT A LOCATION AT THIS TIME DUE TO
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HIGHLY
DICTATE WHERE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL UPDATE
OFTEN AND HIGHLIGHT RISK AREAS AS OUR CONFIDENCE GROWS IN ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION.

AS FOR TEMPS/WEATHER...POPS WERE FOCUSED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND MAINLY ACROSS THE N HALF. FOR SUN-MON...TRIED TO SHOW THE NORTH
HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUN AND I SHOWED CENTRAL SECTIONS COOLER AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP (SIMILAR TO TODAY). LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND AS WE HEAD INTO MID/LATE WEEK WITH 90-95 DEGREE READINGS
COMMON. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF THE TAF SITES SO
HAVE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED SO IN TAFS BUT TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTING. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS SCATTERED AROUND
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  84  72  89 /  77  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  80  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     72  85  73  91 /  72  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   73  84  73  91 /  63  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       73  87  73  90 /  42  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  77  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     71  85  71  89 /  76  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/SW/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 042116
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS AS A
COUPLE MORE EARLY MORNING STORM COMPLEXES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS NW
FLOW REGIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE THERMO ENV WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS AND DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING COLD POOLS
EVOLVE...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO EXIST.

WHAT IS LEFT AFTER MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS A WELL
DEFINED MCV OVER N MS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED EAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS BACK TO THE SW AND WEST
ALONG THE STALLED COLD POOL. INDICATIONS ARE THE PRECIP OVER THE SE
WILL PUSH EAST WHILE THE ACTIVITY TO OUR W/SW WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVE. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE
GFS/EURO WHILE OTHER GUID IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE. THIS SORT OF PATTERN
IS ONE THAT FITS THE OVERNIGHT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS WELL AS
SUPPORTS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE TRAINING OF STORM CELLS. MOST NEAR
TERM GUID SHOWS A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RECOVERY OF THE
THETA E AXIS A TOP THE OLD COLD POOL. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LL JET GETS ESTABLISHED. THE KEY IS WHERE MAY
THIS FORM. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PINPOINT AN AREA...BUT WE
FEEL SOMEWHERE N OF I-20 HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL. WHILE A SEVERE
STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE CANCELLED THE PREV FF WATCH AS THE THREAT HAD
DIMINISHED. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A NEW ONE AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE THIS THREAT AND
ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED. SOMETHING SIMILAR MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MON MORNING...BUT THIS WILL HING ON HOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON
SUN AND WE WILL EVALUATE THIS THREAT DURING LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE SEVERE STORM RISK...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INTO TUE
AS COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT CAN
REMAIN UNCONTAMINATED FROM MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...WILL HAVE SOME RISK EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT OPT TO HIGHLIGHT A LOCATION AT THIS TIME DUE TO
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HIGHLY
DICTATE WHERE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL UPDATE
OFTEN AND HIGHLIGHT RISK AREAS AS OUR CONFIDENCE GROWS IN ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION.

AS FOR TEMPS/WEATHER...POPS WERE FOCUSED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND MAINLY ACROSS THE N HALF. FOR SUN-MON...TRIED TO SHOW THE NORTH
HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUN AND I SHOWED CENTRAL SECTIONS COOLER AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP (SIMILAR TO TODAY). LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND AS WE HEAD INTO MID/LATE WEEK WITH 90-95 DEGREE READINGS
COMMON. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF THE TAF SITES SO
HAVE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED SO IN TAFS BUT TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTING. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS SCATTERED AROUND
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  84  72  89 /  77  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  80  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     72  85  73  91 /  72  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   73  84  73  91 /  63  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       73  87  73  90 /  42  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  77  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     71  85  71  89 /  76  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/SW/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 042116
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS AS A
COUPLE MORE EARLY MORNING STORM COMPLEXES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS NW
FLOW REGIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE THERMO ENV WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS AND DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING COLD POOLS
EVOLVE...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO EXIST.

WHAT IS LEFT AFTER MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS A WELL
DEFINED MCV OVER N MS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED EAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS BACK TO THE SW AND WEST
ALONG THE STALLED COLD POOL. INDICATIONS ARE THE PRECIP OVER THE SE
WILL PUSH EAST WHILE THE ACTIVITY TO OUR W/SW WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVE. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE
GFS/EURO WHILE OTHER GUID IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE. THIS SORT OF PATTERN
IS ONE THAT FITS THE OVERNIGHT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS WELL AS
SUPPORTS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE TRAINING OF STORM CELLS. MOST NEAR
TERM GUID SHOWS A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RECOVERY OF THE
THETA E AXIS A TOP THE OLD COLD POOL. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LL JET GETS ESTABLISHED. THE KEY IS WHERE MAY
THIS FORM. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PINPOINT AN AREA...BUT WE
FEEL SOMEWHERE N OF I-20 HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL. WHILE A SEVERE
STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE CANCELLED THE PREV FF WATCH AS THE THREAT HAD
DIMINISHED. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A NEW ONE AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE THIS THREAT AND
ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED. SOMETHING SIMILAR MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MON MORNING...BUT THIS WILL HING ON HOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON
SUN AND WE WILL EVALUATE THIS THREAT DURING LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE SEVERE STORM RISK...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INTO TUE
AS COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT CAN
REMAIN UNCONTAMINATED FROM MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...WILL HAVE SOME RISK EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT OPT TO HIGHLIGHT A LOCATION AT THIS TIME DUE TO
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HIGHLY
DICTATE WHERE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL UPDATE
OFTEN AND HIGHLIGHT RISK AREAS AS OUR CONFIDENCE GROWS IN ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION.

AS FOR TEMPS/WEATHER...POPS WERE FOCUSED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND MAINLY ACROSS THE N HALF. FOR SUN-MON...TRIED TO SHOW THE NORTH
HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUN AND I SHOWED CENTRAL SECTIONS COOLER AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP (SIMILAR TO TODAY). LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND AS WE HEAD INTO MID/LATE WEEK WITH 90-95 DEGREE READINGS
COMMON. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF THE TAF SITES SO
HAVE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED SO IN TAFS BUT TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTING. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS SCATTERED AROUND
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  84  72  89 /  77  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  80  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     72  85  73  91 /  72  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   73  84  73  91 /  63  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       73  87  73  90 /  42  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  77  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     71  85  71  89 /  76  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/SW/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 042116
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS AS A
COUPLE MORE EARLY MORNING STORM COMPLEXES APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THIS NW
FLOW REGIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE THERMO ENV WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS AND DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING COLD POOLS
EVOLVE...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO EXIST.

WHAT IS LEFT AFTER MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS A WELL
DEFINED MCV OVER N MS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED EAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS BACK TO THE SW AND WEST
ALONG THE STALLED COLD POOL. INDICATIONS ARE THE PRECIP OVER THE SE
WILL PUSH EAST WHILE THE ACTIVITY TO OUR W/SW WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVE. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE
GFS/EURO WHILE OTHER GUID IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE. THIS SORT OF PATTERN
IS ONE THAT FITS THE OVERNIGHT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS WELL AS
SUPPORTS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE TRAINING OF STORM CELLS. MOST NEAR
TERM GUID SHOWS A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RECOVERY OF THE
THETA E AXIS A TOP THE OLD COLD POOL. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LL JET GETS ESTABLISHED. THE KEY IS WHERE MAY
THIS FORM. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PINPOINT AN AREA...BUT WE
FEEL SOMEWHERE N OF I-20 HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL. WHILE A SEVERE
STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE CANCELLED THE PREV FF WATCH AS THE THREAT HAD
DIMINISHED. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A NEW ONE AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE THIS THREAT AND
ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED. SOMETHING SIMILAR MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MON MORNING...BUT THIS WILL HING ON HOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON
SUN AND WE WILL EVALUATE THIS THREAT DURING LATER SHIFTS.

AS FOR THE SEVERE STORM RISK...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INTO TUE
AS COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT CAN
REMAIN UNCONTAMINATED FROM MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...WILL HAVE SOME RISK EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT OPT TO HIGHLIGHT A LOCATION AT THIS TIME DUE TO
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HIGHLY
DICTATE WHERE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL UPDATE
OFTEN AND HIGHLIGHT RISK AREAS AS OUR CONFIDENCE GROWS IN ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION.

AS FOR TEMPS/WEATHER...POPS WERE FOCUSED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND MAINLY ACROSS THE N HALF. FOR SUN-MON...TRIED TO SHOW THE NORTH
HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON
SUN AND I SHOWED CENTRAL SECTIONS COOLER AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP (SIMILAR TO TODAY). LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND AS WE HEAD INTO MID/LATE WEEK WITH 90-95 DEGREE READINGS
COMMON. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF THE TAF SITES SO
HAVE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED SO IN TAFS BUT TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTING. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS SCATTERED AROUND
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  84  72  89 /  77  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  80  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     72  85  73  91 /  72  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   73  84  73  91 /  63  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       73  87  73  90 /  42  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  77  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     71  85  71  89 /  76  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/SW/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 041552 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1052 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...MAIN ISSUES THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPING MCS AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO OUR W/NW AND HOW WILL THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SFC OUTFLOW IMPACT STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OUR
WEATHER TODAY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A COMPACT AND POTENT MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE HAS ENHANCED WIND FLOW THROUGH
ALL LEVELS ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY DIFFLUENT UPPER JET TO OUR NW
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT WITH
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION. THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PUSHED A
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD AND THAT IS A FOCUS FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT AS IT IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE SOME AND INTERACTING
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO SFC HEATING. WHAT IS REALLY
IMPRESSIVE IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
TO OUR W WHERE BACKBUILDING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND MAY SHIFT
MORE INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER W-CENTRAL AREAS. THE
ORIGINAL WATCH AREA WAS LEFT AS IS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
THERE FOR FLOODING AS THE BETTER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO
GET FOCUSED IN ANOTHER PART OF THE CWA. THE WATCH PRODUCT HAS BEEN
UPDATED ALONG WITH THE HWO AND GRAPHICS WHICH ILLUSTRATE THE THREAT
AREA BEST AS WE HAVE RE-ORIENTED THE ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.

AS FOR SVR STORM THREAT...INCREASED FLOW WILL BE COMBINING WITH 3500-
4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS. THE MAIN ISSUE RIGHT NOW
IS HOW THE SLOW MOVING MORNING COLD POOL IS OPPOSITE THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VECTORS. THIS IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCING UPDRAFTS AND
LIKELY WHY STORMS HAVE BEEN TAME SO FAR. HOWEVER...AS THE ORIGINAL
COLD STALLS AND THE DEEPER PUSH COMES MORE E/SE FROM THE HEAVIER
RAINS JUST TO OUR W/NW (THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EAST
CARROLL AND ISSAQUENA) WE WILL LIKELY GET MORE INTERACTION WITH SB
INSTABILITY AND GENERATE MORE INTENSE STORMS OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND AREAS TO THE S/SE. CURRENT OUTLOOK/GRAPHICS HANDLE THAT. WE MAY
NEED TO UPGRADE THE E-CENTRAL OR SE AREAS TO AN ELEVATED DEPENDING
ON HOW THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND COLD POOL INTERACT.

AS FOR FORECAST MODIFICATIONS...BIG ADJ WERE MADE TO POPS AND TEMPS
WERE LOWERED FOR MUCH OF THE N HALF AS RAIN COOLED CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATER WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER NOCTURNAL HEAVY RAIN COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT...STAY TUNED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS
AND THE ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS. ACTIVITY ALREADY
AFFECTING SITES ALONG HIGHWAY 82 AND EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD TO SITES
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHBG WILL
BE IMPACTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL FOCUS ON
TIMING OF ACTIVITY GOING INTO TONIGHT. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  70  86  71 /  96  73  59  42
MERIDIAN      87  69  84  68 /  81  74  62  45
VICKSBURG     85  70  87  72 / 100  71  54  35
HATTIESBURG   91  71  86  72 /  83  62  64  33
NATCHEZ       86  72  88  73 /  98  56  62  25
GREENVILLE    80  70  86  72 / 100  48  46  32
GREENWOOD     80  70  84  70 /  98  60  45  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>043-047-048-053.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023-025.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/SW/



000
FXUS64 KJAN 041552 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1052 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...MAIN ISSUES THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPING MCS AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO OUR W/NW AND HOW WILL THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SFC OUTFLOW IMPACT STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OUR
WEATHER TODAY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A COMPACT AND POTENT MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE HAS ENHANCED WIND FLOW THROUGH
ALL LEVELS ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY DIFFLUENT UPPER JET TO OUR NW
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT WITH
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION. THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PUSHED A
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD AND THAT IS A FOCUS FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT AS IT IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE SOME AND INTERACTING
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO SFC HEATING. WHAT IS REALLY
IMPRESSIVE IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
TO OUR W WHERE BACKBUILDING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND MAY SHIFT
MORE INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER W-CENTRAL AREAS. THE
ORIGINAL WATCH AREA WAS LEFT AS IS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
THERE FOR FLOODING AS THE BETTER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO
GET FOCUSED IN ANOTHER PART OF THE CWA. THE WATCH PRODUCT HAS BEEN
UPDATED ALONG WITH THE HWO AND GRAPHICS WHICH ILLUSTRATE THE THREAT
AREA BEST AS WE HAVE RE-ORIENTED THE ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.

AS FOR SVR STORM THREAT...INCREASED FLOW WILL BE COMBINING WITH 3500-
4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS. THE MAIN ISSUE RIGHT NOW
IS HOW THE SLOW MOVING MORNING COLD POOL IS OPPOSITE THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VECTORS. THIS IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCING UPDRAFTS AND
LIKELY WHY STORMS HAVE BEEN TAME SO FAR. HOWEVER...AS THE ORIGINAL
COLD STALLS AND THE DEEPER PUSH COMES MORE E/SE FROM THE HEAVIER
RAINS JUST TO OUR W/NW (THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EAST
CARROLL AND ISSAQUENA) WE WILL LIKELY GET MORE INTERACTION WITH SB
INSTABILITY AND GENERATE MORE INTENSE STORMS OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND AREAS TO THE S/SE. CURRENT OUTLOOK/GRAPHICS HANDLE THAT. WE MAY
NEED TO UPGRADE THE E-CENTRAL OR SE AREAS TO AN ELEVATED DEPENDING
ON HOW THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND COLD POOL INTERACT.

AS FOR FORECAST MODIFICATIONS...BIG ADJ WERE MADE TO POPS AND TEMPS
WERE LOWERED FOR MUCH OF THE N HALF AS RAIN COOLED CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATER WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER NOCTURNAL HEAVY RAIN COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT...STAY TUNED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS
AND THE ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS. ACTIVITY ALREADY
AFFECTING SITES ALONG HIGHWAY 82 AND EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD TO SITES
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHBG WILL
BE IMPACTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL FOCUS ON
TIMING OF ACTIVITY GOING INTO TONIGHT. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  70  86  71 /  96  73  59  42
MERIDIAN      87  69  84  68 /  81  74  62  45
VICKSBURG     85  70  87  72 / 100  71  54  35
HATTIESBURG   91  71  86  72 /  83  62  64  33
NATCHEZ       86  72  88  73 /  98  56  62  25
GREENVILLE    80  70  86  72 / 100  48  46  32
GREENWOOD     80  70  84  70 /  98  60  45  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>043-047-048-053.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023-025.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/SW/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 041000
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
82...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CURRENT WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED HEAVY RAIN AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR HAS
REALLY ONLY SHIFTED AROUND 50 MILES SOUTH OF WHERE IT WAS EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. INCOMING LOBES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL WORK
TO SHIFT THE MAIN CONVERGENCE AXIS (CONCENTRATING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT) FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT POINT (DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT) THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PULL BACK TO THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 HAVE BEEN MOSTLY DRY FOR A
FEW TO SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF TROUGH OF
ENERGY TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRYING INFLUENCE SHOULD BE FIRMLY
SQUASHED FURTHER DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE
DOUBT THAT ALL AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 WILL GET IN ON
THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH AT THE
VERY LEAST AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE SHOULD TAKE SHAPE.
AFOREMENTIONED ABUNDANT CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN ZONES
WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...PROBABLY ONLY ALLOWING LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 TO HEAT UP ENOUGH TO GENERATE A GREAT DEAL OF
INSTABILITY. THAT INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL MID-
SUMMER SHEAR LEVELS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...THUS
THE MENTION IN THE HWO. IN NORTHERN AREAS IT IS THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH
IS THE LARGEST WORRY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS PUT INTO EFFECT
THERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL
INCHES FALLING ON SOME AREAS WHICH GOT DUMPED ON PRETTY GOOD
YESTERDAY.

BY THIS EVENING MANY HIRES MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY BE IN QUITE
A LULL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN ACTIVE MIDDAY TO
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE OPTIMUM FOR THE FIREWORKS
FESTIVITIES. BUT EVEN IF MANY AREAS GET LUCKY ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
NEEDED DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING ANTICIPATE LATE NIGHT SHOWERS
AND STORMS (INCLUDING MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SAGGING CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION HAS
THIS MAIN FOCUS OF THIS AXIS ALIGNED SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE HIGHWAY
49 CORRIDOR.

TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVERHEAD SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE...BUT AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...A FURTHER SUBTLE SUPPRESSION OF THE DEVELOPMENT AXIS IS
PLAUSIBLE. AT THIS POINT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ADVERTISED FOR
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN PROBLEMS
IS NOT NIL. /BB/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BETTER CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE EAST AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH
SURFACE RIDGING. THIS WILL LIMIT OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK FLAT SUBTROPICAL MEAN RIDGING
WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS GENERALLY AGREED BY
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND THE CENTER
OF THE MEAN RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE PLAINS. MOIST SOILS IN MANY
AREAS WILL WORK AGAINST TEMPERATURES SPIKING UPWARDS QUICKLY IN
REACTION TO THE CHANGING WEATHER REGIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT HEAT TO
BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY
TO PUSH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...DUE MAINLY TO CEILING
RESTRICTIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
(INCLUDING GLH/GWO/GTR) WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...TURBULENCE AND BRIEF IFR TO SUB-IFR FLIGHT
CATS. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH IN THE REGION
LATER TODAY WHICH OTHER SITES WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE
BRIEF SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  70  86  71 /  73  73  59  42
MERIDIAN      86  69  84  68 /  75  74  62  45
VICKSBURG     85  70  87  72 /  69  71  54  35
HATTIESBURG   90  71  86  72 /  58  62  64  33
NATCHEZ       85  72  88  73 /  76  56  62  25
GREENVILLE    83  70  86  72 /  84  48  46  32
GREENWOOD     83  70  84  70 /  84  60  45  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>039.

LA...NONE.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 041000
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
82...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CURRENT WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED HEAVY RAIN AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR HAS
REALLY ONLY SHIFTED AROUND 50 MILES SOUTH OF WHERE IT WAS EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. INCOMING LOBES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL WORK
TO SHIFT THE MAIN CONVERGENCE AXIS (CONCENTRATING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT) FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT POINT (DEFINITELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT) THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PULL BACK TO THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 HAVE BEEN MOSTLY DRY FOR A
FEW TO SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF TROUGH OF
ENERGY TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRYING INFLUENCE SHOULD BE FIRMLY
SQUASHED FURTHER DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE
DOUBT THAT ALL AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 WILL GET IN ON
THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH AT THE
VERY LEAST AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE SHOULD TAKE SHAPE.
AFOREMENTIONED ABUNDANT CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN ZONES
WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...PROBABLY ONLY ALLOWING LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 TO HEAT UP ENOUGH TO GENERATE A GREAT DEAL OF
INSTABILITY. THAT INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL MID-
SUMMER SHEAR LEVELS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...THUS
THE MENTION IN THE HWO. IN NORTHERN AREAS IT IS THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH
IS THE LARGEST WORRY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS PUT INTO EFFECT
THERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL
INCHES FALLING ON SOME AREAS WHICH GOT DUMPED ON PRETTY GOOD
YESTERDAY.

BY THIS EVENING MANY HIRES MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY BE IN QUITE
A LULL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN ACTIVE MIDDAY TO
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE OPTIMUM FOR THE FIREWORKS
FESTIVITIES. BUT EVEN IF MANY AREAS GET LUCKY ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
NEEDED DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING ANTICIPATE LATE NIGHT SHOWERS
AND STORMS (INCLUDING MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL) TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SAGGING CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION HAS
THIS MAIN FOCUS OF THIS AXIS ALIGNED SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE HIGHWAY
49 CORRIDOR.

TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVERHEAD SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE...BUT AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...A FURTHER SUBTLE SUPPRESSION OF THE DEVELOPMENT AXIS IS
PLAUSIBLE. AT THIS POINT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ADVERTISED FOR
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN PROBLEMS
IS NOT NIL. /BB/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BETTER CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE EAST AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH
SURFACE RIDGING. THIS WILL LIMIT OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK FLAT SUBTROPICAL MEAN RIDGING
WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS GENERALLY AGREED BY
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND THE CENTER
OF THE MEAN RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE PLAINS. MOIST SOILS IN MANY
AREAS WILL WORK AGAINST TEMPERATURES SPIKING UPWARDS QUICKLY IN
REACTION TO THE CHANGING WEATHER REGIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT HEAT TO
BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY
TO PUSH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...DUE MAINLY TO CEILING
RESTRICTIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
(INCLUDING GLH/GWO/GTR) WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...TURBULENCE AND BRIEF IFR TO SUB-IFR FLIGHT
CATS. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH IN THE REGION
LATER TODAY WHICH OTHER SITES WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE
BRIEF SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  70  86  71 /  73  73  59  42
MERIDIAN      86  69  84  68 /  75  74  62  45
VICKSBURG     85  70  87  72 /  69  71  54  35
HATTIESBURG   90  71  86  72 /  58  62  64  33
NATCHEZ       85  72  88  73 /  76  56  62  25
GREENVILLE    83  70  86  72 /  84  48  46  32
GREENWOOD     83  70  84  70 /  84  60  45  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>039.

LA...NONE.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 040107
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR
COLUMBUS SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF THE METRO THIS EVENING AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG
TO SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH SOME REPORTS OF QUARTER TO GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL. EXPECT THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS MAINLY STAYING NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HI-RES
MODELS  INDICATE THAT WE MAY GET A SHORT BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THE GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY.
WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND TRAINING STORMS FLASH FLOODING MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE GRAPHICAST
AND HWO. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IT HAS BEEN A QUIET
DAY FOR THE MOST PART WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN AND STORMS REMAINING
NORTH OF MY CWA. THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MS WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THERE HAS YET TO BE ANY
RAIN. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH
OF THE REGION AND STORMS HAVE BEEN TRAINING THROUGH THE DAY IN
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE IN THE UPPER FLOW
IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO PUSH TO SOUTHEAST FROM GENERALLY THE ARKLATEX REGION AND ARE NOW
MOVING INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF MY CWA. THEY ARE
MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY RISKS. AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SWING SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND THIS ONE COULD STALL ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS COULD
LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
THROUGH TONIGHT. PW VALUES ARE SHOWN TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...336-340K THETA-E AIR...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION AND...IN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND VERY WEAK CORFIDI
VECTORS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN OF 2-3
INCHES(OR POTENTIALLY GREATER IN SOME LOCATIONS)/FLOODING ISSUES
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANY STORMS THAT BACKBUILD/TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
LIMITED RISK AREAS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS SEEM REASONABLE AND HAVE
LEFT THEM IN TACT.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WEATHER BE ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY...IT WONT BE NEARLY AS NICE AS IT
WAS LAST YEAR WHEN A COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. IN THIS RATHER COMPLEX...NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME...IT REALLY IS HARD TO PINPOINT JUST WHAT IS GOING TO EVOLVE.
IF THE EXPECTED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT...THIS
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TOMORROW. HI- RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE
THAT THIS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND AFFECT
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WHICH IS CERTAINLY NOT GOOD NEWS FOR FIREWORKS AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. IT IS LIKELY BEST TO SAY THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS WILL LIKELY
COMBINE WITH ANY DAYTIME HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES/MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE IS THE RISK FOR ANY OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. IT IS BEST FOR RESIDENTS TO KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION ESPECIALLY WHEN PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP SOME AREAS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH...INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY SUPPRESSED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FOR EARLY JULY (AND THE ATTENDANT SAGGING
FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR REGION) WILL FINALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE REGIME
CHANGES...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT (AND THEN BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY). THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BE DECLINING BY THIS POINT AND THUS THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING PROBLEMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO
QUITE YET. OF COURSE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HEAT WILL BE
TRYING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MODEL AGREEMENT ON INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING INFLUENCE FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WORK WEEK IS NOW PRETTY GOOD.
THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DESPITE RIDGE SUPPRESSION...BUT THE
CONSENSUS IDEA IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE. FORTUNATELY...MOIST SOILS IN MANY AREAS WILL WORK AGAINST
TEMPERATURES SPIKING UPWARDS QUICKLY IN REACTION TO THE CHANGING
WEATHER REGIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT HEAT TO BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY TO PUSH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. STORMS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VSBY. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  85  70  87 /  77  63  60  60
MERIDIAN      71  85  68  87 /  72  70  62  59
VICKSBURG     74  85  71  88 /  69  67  58  58
HATTIESBURG   74  87  71  87 /  27  53  55  61
NATCHEZ       74  86  71  89 /  33  68  58  56
GREENVILLE    73  85  70  89 /  97  66  56  60
GREENWOOD     73  85  70  87 /  97  63  51  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/BB/SW



000
FXUS64 KJAN 040107
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR
COLUMBUS SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF THE METRO THIS EVENING AND IS
WORKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG
TO SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH SOME REPORTS OF QUARTER TO GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL. EXPECT THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS MAINLY STAYING NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HI-RES
MODELS  INDICATE THAT WE MAY GET A SHORT BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THE GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY.
WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND TRAINING STORMS FLASH FLOODING MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE GRAPHICAST
AND HWO. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IT HAS BEEN A QUIET
DAY FOR THE MOST PART WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN AND STORMS REMAINING
NORTH OF MY CWA. THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MS WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THERE HAS YET TO BE ANY
RAIN. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH
OF THE REGION AND STORMS HAVE BEEN TRAINING THROUGH THE DAY IN
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE IN THE UPPER FLOW
IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO PUSH TO SOUTHEAST FROM GENERALLY THE ARKLATEX REGION AND ARE NOW
MOVING INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF MY CWA. THEY ARE
MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY RISKS. AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SWING SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND THIS ONE COULD STALL ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS COULD
LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
THROUGH TONIGHT. PW VALUES ARE SHOWN TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...336-340K THETA-E AIR...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION AND...IN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND VERY WEAK CORFIDI
VECTORS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN OF 2-3
INCHES(OR POTENTIALLY GREATER IN SOME LOCATIONS)/FLOODING ISSUES
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANY STORMS THAT BACKBUILD/TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
LIMITED RISK AREAS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS SEEM REASONABLE AND HAVE
LEFT THEM IN TACT.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WEATHER BE ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY...IT WONT BE NEARLY AS NICE AS IT
WAS LAST YEAR WHEN A COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. IN THIS RATHER COMPLEX...NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME...IT REALLY IS HARD TO PINPOINT JUST WHAT IS GOING TO EVOLVE.
IF THE EXPECTED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT...THIS
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TOMORROW. HI- RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE
THAT THIS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND AFFECT
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WHICH IS CERTAINLY NOT GOOD NEWS FOR FIREWORKS AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. IT IS LIKELY BEST TO SAY THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS WILL LIKELY
COMBINE WITH ANY DAYTIME HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES/MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE IS THE RISK FOR ANY OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. IT IS BEST FOR RESIDENTS TO KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION ESPECIALLY WHEN PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP SOME AREAS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH...INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY SUPPRESSED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FOR EARLY JULY (AND THE ATTENDANT SAGGING
FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR REGION) WILL FINALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE REGIME
CHANGES...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT (AND THEN BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY). THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BE DECLINING BY THIS POINT AND THUS THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING PROBLEMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO
QUITE YET. OF COURSE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH HEAT WILL BE
TRYING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MODEL AGREEMENT ON INCREASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING INFLUENCE FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WORK WEEK IS NOW PRETTY GOOD.
THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DESPITE RIDGE SUPPRESSION...BUT THE
CONSENSUS IDEA IS THAT PRECIPITATION OVER THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE. FORTUNATELY...MOIST SOILS IN MANY AREAS WILL WORK AGAINST
TEMPERATURES SPIKING UPWARDS QUICKLY IN REACTION TO THE CHANGING
WEATHER REGIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT HEAT TO BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY TO PUSH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. STORMS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VSBY. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  85  70  87 /  77  63  60  60
MERIDIAN      71  85  68  87 /  72  70  62  59
VICKSBURG     74  85  71  88 /  69  67  58  58
HATTIESBURG   74  87  71  87 /  27  53  55  61
NATCHEZ       74  86  71  89 /  33  68  58  56
GREENVILLE    73  85  70  89 /  97  66  56  60
GREENWOOD     73  85  70  87 /  97  63  51  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/BB/SW




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities