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000
FXUS64 KJAN 082145
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE COMBINED CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONT WAS RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM OVER OUR NORTHWEST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LAYER OF
STRATOCU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY
SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH A FLURRY OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TUESDAY. A RATHER
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
OUR REGION BUT NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
BEYOND THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FRO MOST SITES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S OVER MOST
OF OUR AREA. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THAT WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A WEEK WARM-UP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BEEN
BREEZY/GUSTY TODAY. SPEEDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35-40KTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
AROUND 10KTS BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY YET AGAIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       29  49  28  51 /   3   1   0   0
MERIDIAN      26  46  24  49 /   7   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     30  51  28  52 /   3   1   0   0
HATTIESBURG   29  52  29  55 /   3   1   0   0
NATCHEZ       31  51  30  53 /   2   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    30  49  28  48 /   3   2   0   0
GREENWOOD     28  45  25  46 /   5   2   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/19/28




000
FXUS64 KJAN 082145
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE COMBINED CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONT WAS RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM OVER OUR NORTHWEST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LAYER OF
STRATOCU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY
SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH A FLURRY OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TUESDAY. A RATHER
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
OUR REGION BUT NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
BEYOND THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FRO MOST SITES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S OVER MOST
OF OUR AREA. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THAT WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A WEEK WARM-UP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BEEN
BREEZY/GUSTY TODAY. SPEEDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35-40KTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
AROUND 10KTS BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY YET AGAIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       29  49  28  51 /   3   1   0   0
MERIDIAN      26  46  24  49 /   7   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     30  51  28  52 /   3   1   0   0
HATTIESBURG   29  52  29  55 /   3   1   0   0
NATCHEZ       31  51  30  53 /   2   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    30  49  28  48 /   3   2   0   0
GREENWOOD     28  45  25  46 /   5   2   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/19/28



000
FXUS64 KJAN 081642 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1042 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE ALREADY
BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER OUR NORTHWEST. THE WIND
WILL MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER OUR NORTHEAST SO THE CURRENT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ONLY SHOWED A FEW CU STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER OUR CWA AT 10 AM. THE
ISOLATION TODAY WL BE OFFSET BY THE CAA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
TO FORECAST HIGHS ALREADY. HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVES TO MATCH THE TREND.
HI-RES MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE PCPN OVER OUR NORTHEAST UNTIL THIS
EVENING. HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OVER OUR NORTHEAST
MOST ZONES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH IS RESULTING IN A WIND
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25KTS
SUSTAINED WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KGLH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
30KTS. ELSEWHERE....SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS ARE MORE LIKELY. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DIVING RAPIDLY SE INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH TODAY AS TEMPS BEGIN COOLING OFF.
FIRST...BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER DELTA AS OF 09Z. THESE WINDS OVER THE
OPEN TERRAIN...LAKES...AND RIVERS OF THE DELTA REGION WILL LIKELY
EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL...THEREFORE...POST A WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTIES/PARISHES IN THE DELTA
REGION.

SENCOND FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE NE TODAY AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF SHALLOW CAPE WILL SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE. HRRR/ARW AND NMM HINT AT THIS SCENARIO
IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING WITH FURTHER COOLING IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH THE QUICK AND LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS./26/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  A COOL START TO THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK WARM-UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  29  47  27 /   3   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  46  24 /   8   7   1   0
VICKSBURG     52  30  50  29 /   2   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  29  49  29 /   2   8   1   1
NATCHEZ       54  30  51  31 /   2   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    50  29  47  28 /   4   3   1   0
GREENWOOD     50  27  45  25 /   9   5   2   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/28/26/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 080908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DIVING RAPIDLY SE INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH TODAY AS TEMPS BEGIN COOLING OFF.
FIRST...BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER DELTA AS OF 09Z. THESE WINDS OVER THE
OPEN TERRAIN...LAKES...AND RIVERS OF THE DELTA REGION WILL LIKELY
EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL...THEREFORE...POST A WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTIES/PARISHES IN THE DELTA
REGION.

SENCOND FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE NE TODAY AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF SHALLOW CAPE WILL SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE. HRRR/ARW AND NMM HINT AT THIS SCENARIO
IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING WITH FURTHER COOLING IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH THE QUICK AND LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  A COOL START TO THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK WARM-UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH 00Z.
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR GLH. A GRADUAL RELAXATION IN THE WIND WILL
GET UNDERWAY AFTER 00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  29  47  27 /   7   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  46  24 /  10   7   1   0
VICKSBURG     52  30  50  29 /   6   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  29  49  29 /   4   8   1   1
NATCHEZ       54  30  51  31 /   3   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    48  29  47  28 /   6   3   1   0
GREENWOOD     48  27  45  25 /  10   5   2   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 080908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DIVING RAPIDLY SE INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH TODAY AS TEMPS BEGIN COOLING OFF.
FIRST...BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER DELTA AS OF 09Z. THESE WINDS OVER THE
OPEN TERRAIN...LAKES...AND RIVERS OF THE DELTA REGION WILL LIKELY
EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL...THEREFORE...POST A WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTIES/PARISHES IN THE DELTA
REGION.

SENCOND FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE NE TODAY AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF SHALLOW CAPE WILL SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE. HRRR/ARW AND NMM HINT AT THIS SCENARIO
IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING WITH FURTHER COOLING IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH THE QUICK AND LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  A COOL START TO THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK WARM-UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH 00Z.
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR GLH. A GRADUAL RELAXATION IN THE WIND WILL
GET UNDERWAY AFTER 00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  29  47  27 /   7   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  46  24 /  10   7   1   0
VICKSBURG     52  30  50  29 /   6   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  29  49  29 /   4   8   1   1
NATCHEZ       54  30  51  31 /   3   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    48  29  47  28 /   6   3   1   0
GREENWOOD     48  27  45  25 /  10   5   2   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/19



000
FXUS64 KJAN 080908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DIVING RAPIDLY SE INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH TODAY AS TEMPS BEGIN COOLING OFF.
FIRST...BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER DELTA AS OF 09Z. THESE WINDS OVER THE
OPEN TERRAIN...LAKES...AND RIVERS OF THE DELTA REGION WILL LIKELY
EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL...THEREFORE...POST A WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTIES/PARISHES IN THE DELTA
REGION.

SENCOND FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE NE TODAY AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF SHALLOW CAPE WILL SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE. HRRR/ARW AND NMM HINT AT THIS SCENARIO
IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING WITH FURTHER COOLING IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH THE QUICK AND LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  A COOL START TO THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK WARM-UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH 00Z.
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR GLH. A GRADUAL RELAXATION IN THE WIND WILL
GET UNDERWAY AFTER 00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  29  47  27 /   7   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  46  24 /  10   7   1   0
VICKSBURG     52  30  50  29 /   6   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  29  49  29 /   4   8   1   1
NATCHEZ       54  30  51  31 /   3   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    48  29  47  28 /   6   3   1   0
GREENWOOD     48  27  45  25 /  10   5   2   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 080319
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION THIS EVENING...BUT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A LITTLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK BEFORE ENTERING INTO MY NORTHWESTERN ZONES. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA (ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES) LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UP AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN MS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE TEMPS COULD MANAGE TO
DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. ELSEWHERE THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT RAD COOLING A GREAT DEAL AND LOW TEMP
EXPECTATIONS WERE BUMPED UP A LITTLE IN THOSE AREAS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN
10KTS TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 30KTS POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA.
CEILINGS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAY APPROACH 3
KFT FROM GWO OVER TO CBM/GTR...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE 4 KFT OR ABOVE.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA...THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
HAS COMBINED WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND SUNNY SKIES TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOST SITES WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
THIS WEEK THOUGH AS A CHANGE BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.  MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A
NEARLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND THEN SOUTHWEST NEARING THE ARKLATEX REGION. A
SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY FURTHER DEEPENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
CWA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BEFORE
SUNRISE AND BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY NOON. ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DROP OVER OUR CWA AND LEAD TO COLD STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL COVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OUR
CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SNOW FLURRY OR TWO BEFORE THE RAIN
ENDS. WL NOT CARRY MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY EVENING AND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEAST
TUESDAY. A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL END MONDAY EVENING OVER OUR CWA AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE COLDER THAN
NORMAL AGAIN AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTH. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT HIGHS
WILL BE HELD IN THE 40S NORTHEAST AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LAST NIGHTS RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. THIS MEANS THAT
THE EXPECTED MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER AS
FLOW DOES BEGIN TO RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE DROPPING SE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW BEGINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO OK/TX BY FRIDAY
MORNING...MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER AR. THE WEAK SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE IN THE FLOW...AS IT DOES SO...LIGHT
ISENTROPIC RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER N MS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAYS TO THE EAST SATURDAY...BUT ITS TRAILING WEAK
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       37  53  28  49 /   1   5   1   1
MERIDIAN      33  53  27  46 /   1   8   5   1
VICKSBURG     38  53  29  51 /   1   3   1   1
HATTIESBURG   35  56  28  52 /   1   2   1   1
NATCHEZ       38  55  31  50 /   1   2   1   1
GREENVILLE    38  50  30  48 /   1   6   3   1
GREENWOOD     38  49  28  46 /   3   9   8   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/22/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 080319
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION THIS EVENING...BUT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A LITTLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK BEFORE ENTERING INTO MY NORTHWESTERN ZONES. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA (ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES) LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UP AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN MS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE TEMPS COULD MANAGE TO
DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. ELSEWHERE THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT RAD COOLING A GREAT DEAL AND LOW TEMP
EXPECTATIONS WERE BUMPED UP A LITTLE IN THOSE AREAS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN
10KTS TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 30KTS POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA.
CEILINGS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAY APPROACH 3
KFT FROM GWO OVER TO CBM/GTR...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE 4 KFT OR ABOVE.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA...THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
HAS COMBINED WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND SUNNY SKIES TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOST SITES WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
THIS WEEK THOUGH AS A CHANGE BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.  MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A
NEARLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND THEN SOUTHWEST NEARING THE ARKLATEX REGION. A
SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY FURTHER DEEPENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
CWA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BEFORE
SUNRISE AND BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY NOON. ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DROP OVER OUR CWA AND LEAD TO COLD STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL COVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OUR
CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SNOW FLURRY OR TWO BEFORE THE RAIN
ENDS. WL NOT CARRY MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY EVENING AND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEAST
TUESDAY. A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL END MONDAY EVENING OVER OUR CWA AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE COLDER THAN
NORMAL AGAIN AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTH. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT HIGHS
WILL BE HELD IN THE 40S NORTHEAST AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LAST NIGHTS RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. THIS MEANS THAT
THE EXPECTED MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER AS
FLOW DOES BEGIN TO RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE DROPPING SE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW BEGINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO OK/TX BY FRIDAY
MORNING...MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER AR. THE WEAK SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE IN THE FLOW...AS IT DOES SO...LIGHT
ISENTROPIC RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER N MS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAYS TO THE EAST SATURDAY...BUT ITS TRAILING WEAK
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       37  53  28  49 /   1   5   1   1
MERIDIAN      33  53  27  46 /   1   8   5   1
VICKSBURG     38  53  29  51 /   1   3   1   1
HATTIESBURG   35  56  28  52 /   1   2   1   1
NATCHEZ       38  55  31  50 /   1   2   1   1
GREENVILLE    38  50  30  48 /   1   6   3   1
GREENWOOD     38  49  28  46 /   3   9   8   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/22/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 072131
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA...THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
HAS COMBINED WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND SUNNY SKIES TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOST SITES WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
THIS WEEK THOUGH AS A CHANGE BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
MONDAY.  MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A
NEARLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND THEN SOUTHWEST NEARING THE ARKLATEX REGION. A
SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY FURTHER DEEPENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
CWA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BEFORE
SUNRISE AND BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY NOON. ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DROP OVER OUR CWA AND LEAD TO COLD STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL COVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OUR
CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SNOW FLURRY OR TWO BEFORE THE RAIN
ENDS. WL NOT CARRY MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY EVENING AND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEAST
TUESDAY. A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL END MONDAY EVENING OVER OUR CWA AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE COLDER THAN
NORMAL AGAIN AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTH. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT HIGHS
WILL BE HELD IN THE 40S NORTHEAST AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LAST NIGHTS RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. THIS MEANS THAT
THE EXPECTED MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER AS
FLOW DOES BEGIN TO RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE DROPPING SE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW BEGINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO OK/TX BY FRIDAY
MORNING...MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER AR. THE WEAK SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE IN THE FLOW...AS IT DOES SO...LIGHT
ISENTROPIC RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER N MS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAYS TO THE EAST SATURDAY...BUT ITS TRAILING WEAK
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE DELTA. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 15-20KTS SUSTAINED MONDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS
WILL BE NEAR 30KTS IN THE DELTA BUT CLOSER TO 20KTS ELSEWHERE. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       36  53  28  49 /   1   5   1   1
MERIDIAN      34  53  27  46 /   1   8   5   1
VICKSBURG     36  53  29  51 /   1   3   1   1
HATTIESBURG   36  56  28  52 /   1   2   1   1
NATCHEZ       37  55  31  50 /   1   2   1   1
GREENVILLE    37  50  30  48 /   1   6   3   1
GREENWOOD     36  49  28  46 /   3   9   8   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/28




000
FXUS64 KJAN 071649 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1049 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
COOLER THAN EXPECTED UNTIL MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
RAPIDLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND WHICH WAS BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED
AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AROUND 5KTS
BEFORE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE DELTA. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING EAST OF THE CWA. THIS HAD
TAKEN THE HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. ON THE SURFACE A 1030 MB HIGH WAS
BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS WE GO
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOP A STRONG DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WAS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME COLD STRATOCU TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORT OF CWA FROM AROUND THE LARGE CLOSED LOW. SOME OF THE
SHORT TERM HI-RES LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE PRIOR TO DAWN ON MONDAY
SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH. THERE
ARE ONLY DRY MODEL POPS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EXIT EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO
AROUND 30./17/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE THE AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. THIS MEANS THAT
THE EXPECTED MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER AS
FLOW DOES BEGIN TO RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE DROPPING SE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW BEGINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO OK/TX BY FRIDAY
MORNING...MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER AR. THE WEAK SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE IN THE FLOW...AS IT DOES SO...LIGHT
ISENTROPIC RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER N MS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAYS TO THE EAST SATURDAY...BUT ITS TRAILING WEAK
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  37  48  28 /   0   2   4   2
MERIDIAN      58  34  48  26 /   0   3   7   4
VICKSBURG     61  38  49  30 /   0   2   4   1
HATTIESBURG   60  34  51  28 /   0   2   3   2
NATCHEZ       59  38  49  30 /   0   1   3   1
GREENVILLE    59  37  46  29 /   0   4   3   3
GREENWOOD     58  36  45  28 /   0   5   7   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28/17/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 070910
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING EAST OF THE CWA. THIS HAD
TAKEN THE HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. ON THE SURFACE A 1030 MB HIGH WAS
BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS WE GO
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOP A STRONG DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WAS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME COLD STRATOCU TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORT OF CWA FROM AROUND THE LARGE CLOSED LOW. SOME OF THE
SHORT TERM HI-RES LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE PRIOR TO DAWN ON MONDAY
SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH. THERE
ARE ONLY DRY MODEL POPS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EXIT EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO
AROUND 30./17/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE THE AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. THIS MEANS THAT
THE EXPECTED MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER AS
FLOW DOES BEGIN TO RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE DROPPING SE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW BEGINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO OK/TX BY FRIDAY
MORNING...MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER AR. THE WEAK SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE IN THE FLOW...AS IT DOES SO...LIGHT
ISENTROPIC RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER N MS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAYS TO THE EAST SATURDAY...BUT ITS TRAILING WEAK
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FROST ARE EXPECTED. FOR TODAY NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT GLH/GWO./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  37  48  28 /   0   2   4   2
MERIDIAN      58  34  48  26 /   0   3   7   4
VICKSBURG     59  38  49  30 /   0   2   4   1
HATTIESBURG   60  34  51  28 /   0   2   3   2
NATCHEZ       59  38  49  30 /   0   1   3   1
GREENVILLE    58  37  46  29 /   0   4   3   3
GREENWOOD     58  36  45  28 /   0   5   7   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/26



000
FXUS64 KJAN 070910
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING EAST OF THE CWA. THIS HAD
TAKEN THE HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. ON THE SURFACE A 1030 MB HIGH WAS
BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS WE GO
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOP A STRONG DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WAS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME COLD STRATOCU TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORT OF CWA FROM AROUND THE LARGE CLOSED LOW. SOME OF THE
SHORT TERM HI-RES LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE PRIOR TO DAWN ON MONDAY
SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH. THERE
ARE ONLY DRY MODEL POPS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EXIT EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO
AROUND 30./17/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE THE AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. THIS MEANS THAT
THE EXPECTED MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER AS
FLOW DOES BEGIN TO RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE DROPPING SE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW BEGINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO OK/TX BY FRIDAY
MORNING...MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER AR. THE WEAK SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE IN THE FLOW...AS IT DOES SO...LIGHT
ISENTROPIC RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER N MS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAYS TO THE EAST SATURDAY...BUT ITS TRAILING WEAK
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FROST ARE EXPECTED. FOR TODAY NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT GLH/GWO./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  37  48  28 /   0   2   4   2
MERIDIAN      58  34  48  26 /   0   3   7   4
VICKSBURG     59  38  49  30 /   0   2   4   1
HATTIESBURG   60  34  51  28 /   0   2   3   2
NATCHEZ       59  38  49  30 /   0   1   3   1
GREENVILLE    58  37  46  29 /   0   4   3   3
GREENWOOD     58  36  45  28 /   0   5   7   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 070209 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
800 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS BEGINNING
TO HEAD OUT TO THE EAST. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLY TOUGH TO FIND TODAY...AND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LOW THEY WILL BE EVEN HARDER TO FIND. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH CURRENT CONSIDERABLE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS SUGGESTING RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BE QUITE EFFICIENT.
AS SUCH...THINKING IS THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ACHIEVE VALUES ON THE
LOWEST SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST MINIMUMS WERE TWEAKED
DOWN A BIT IN MANY CASES. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AND AREAS
OF FROST ARE EXPECTED. TOMORROW NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BE GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT GLH/GWO. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND TWO DISTINCT
CLOSED LOWS. THE FIRST WAS NOTED SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND THE SECOND OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW
LIGHT RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
CLOSED LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR CWA TODAY
BUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY FALL OVER SOUTHERN CATAHOULA AND SOUTHERN
CONCORDIA PARISHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOSED LOWS WILL TRACK
EAST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THEIR WAKE. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT RESULTING IN A COOL DRY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AS A RESULT
ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH
SUNDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS OUR WINDS ALOFT BECOME
MORE ZONAL. UNDER NEAR FULL INSOLATION TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
NICELY AND TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DEEPENS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY.
THIS WILL SEND A SURGE OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION MONDAY ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. COLD STRATOCU WILL DROP SOUTH
AROUND THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AND MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SOME WILL
SPREAD OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH. /22/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE WEST. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT EACH AIRMASS LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AND SHORTLIVED. FRONTS
ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS MOISTURE RETURN IN
ADVANCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION.

BY FRIDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL RELAX QUITE A BIT WITH
ENCROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKING AS IF IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
MOVE THROUGH AND NOT OFFERING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN. ACTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKE A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE ACROSS IT.

GFS ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EASILY TRANSITIONING INTO THE 60S/70S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATING LOW TEMPS AS WELL./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       30  60  35  53 /   0   0   2   5
MERIDIAN      27  59  32  52 /   0   0   2   8
VICKSBURG     29  60  36  53 /   0   0   2   3
HATTIESBURG   29  61  36  55 /   0   0   2   2
NATCHEZ       31  59  37  53 /   0   0   2   2
GREENVILLE    32  59  36  50 /   0   0   2   6
GREENWOOD     28  59  36  48 /   0   0   3   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/22/26




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