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000
FXUS64 KJAN 272110
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH MOSTLY SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARD FLORIDA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AND SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HOWEVER AS THEY MOVE FURTHER
EAST...THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING A LITTLE MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR AND
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING. THIS ALL COMES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO TRACK TO THE EAST TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/MID-SOUTH. RAIN AND MOISTURE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER BUT SEVERE STORMS DONT LOOK LIKELY. IF
THE BOUNDARY CAN ADVANCE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD TRACKING
SFC LOW AND BETTER MOISTURE CAN MOVE INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT
WITH THE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER
STORM. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS AT
THIS TIME.

THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION AND INTO AL/FL BY TOMORROW
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
WILL THEN SWING OVER THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUR RAIN
POTENTIAL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S(YES EVEN A NIGHT WHERE SOME 40S ARE POSSIBLE!). SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TO TYPICAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT A BAD
WAY TO END APRIL AND USHER IN MAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN ONE THINKS ABOUT
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENTS FROM JUST A YEAR AGO AND FOUR YEARS
AGO. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON.EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 23Z...BUT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT
MOST TAF SITES AFTER 01-02Z. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES WILL DEVELOP MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING./17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  64  51  66 /  76  64  40  21
MERIDIAN      55  67  53  65 /  60  71  57  30
VICKSBURG     57  61  51  67 /  81  62  36  13
HATTIESBURG   61  74  53  67 /  85  64  30  18
NATCHEZ       59  64  49  66 /  85  52  24  11
GREENVILLE    54  58  50  66 /  70  73  48  11
GREENWOOD     53  60  50  67 /  55  72  53  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$
28/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 272110
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH MOSTLY SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARD FLORIDA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AND SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HOWEVER AS THEY MOVE FURTHER
EAST...THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING A LITTLE MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR AND
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING. THIS ALL COMES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO TRACK TO THE EAST TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/MID-SOUTH. RAIN AND MOISTURE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER BUT SEVERE STORMS DONT LOOK LIKELY. IF
THE BOUNDARY CAN ADVANCE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD TRACKING
SFC LOW AND BETTER MOISTURE CAN MOVE INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT
WITH THE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER
STORM. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS AT
THIS TIME.

THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION AND INTO AL/FL BY TOMORROW
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
WILL THEN SWING OVER THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUR RAIN
POTENTIAL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S(YES EVEN A NIGHT WHERE SOME 40S ARE POSSIBLE!). SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TO TYPICAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT A BAD
WAY TO END APRIL AND USHER IN MAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN ONE THINKS ABOUT
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENTS FROM JUST A YEAR AGO AND FOUR YEARS
AGO. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON.EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 23Z...BUT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT
MOST TAF SITES AFTER 01-02Z. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES WILL DEVELOP MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING./17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  64  51  66 /  76  64  40  21
MERIDIAN      55  67  53  65 /  60  71  57  30
VICKSBURG     57  61  51  67 /  81  62  36  13
HATTIESBURG   61  74  53  67 /  85  64  30  18
NATCHEZ       59  64  49  66 /  85  52  24  11
GREENVILLE    54  58  50  66 /  70  73  48  11
GREENWOOD     53  60  50  67 /  55  72  53  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$
28/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 272110
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH MOSTLY SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARD FLORIDA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AND SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HOWEVER AS THEY MOVE FURTHER
EAST...THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING A LITTLE MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR AND
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING. THIS ALL COMES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO TRACK TO THE EAST TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/MID-SOUTH. RAIN AND MOISTURE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER BUT SEVERE STORMS DONT LOOK LIKELY. IF
THE BOUNDARY CAN ADVANCE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD TRACKING
SFC LOW AND BETTER MOISTURE CAN MOVE INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT
WITH THE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER
STORM. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS AT
THIS TIME.

THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION AND INTO AL/FL BY TOMORROW
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
WILL THEN SWING OVER THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUR RAIN
POTENTIAL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S(YES EVEN A NIGHT WHERE SOME 40S ARE POSSIBLE!). SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TO TYPICAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT A BAD
WAY TO END APRIL AND USHER IN MAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN ONE THINKS ABOUT
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENTS FROM JUST A YEAR AGO AND FOUR YEARS
AGO. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON.EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 23Z...BUT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT
MOST TAF SITES AFTER 01-02Z. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES WILL DEVELOP MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING./17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  64  51  66 /  76  64  40  21
MERIDIAN      55  67  53  65 /  60  71  57  30
VICKSBURG     57  61  51  67 /  81  62  36  13
HATTIESBURG   61  74  53  67 /  85  64  30  18
NATCHEZ       59  64  49  66 /  85  52  24  11
GREENVILLE    54  58  50  66 /  70  73  48  11
GREENWOOD     53  60  50  67 /  55  72  53  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$
28/17



000
FXUS64 KJAN 271619 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1119 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY IS LOCATED GENERALLY
OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE MAKING FOR
A NICE MORNING DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR SOUTH IN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. A RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS SPREAD NORTH FROM THIS INTO MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR THAT AREA IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER. A WAKE LOW HAD BEEN NOTED MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE DECAYING PRECIP SHIELD.

FOR TODAY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD AS MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOP SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW THAT
WILL GRADUALLY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION STARTING LATER
TODAY AND INTO THE REST OF THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THIS RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
EVENING. HAVE CUT POPS SOME GIVEN THINKING THAT MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD KEEP US RAINFREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BUT COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS
PAST WEEKEND THANKS TO THE FROPA AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. /28/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING.EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES AFTER 01-02Z. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES BRINGING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING./17/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST.
PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF LOW
OVER TEXAS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WITH
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WILL
BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MAINLY
VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S./15/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND
MOVE EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. OTHER THAN LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. /EC/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  55  65  50 /  26  78  71  40
MERIDIAN      73  55  66  51 /  11  56  69  56
VICKSBURG     72  56  62  50 /  38  84  64  29
HATTIESBURG   76  60  71  53 /  44  86  66  38
NATCHEZ       73  58  65  49 /  55  88  60  24
GREENVILLE    68  54  60  51 /  14  68  69  29
GREENWOOD     69  54  61  50 /  12  52  68  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/17/15/EC



000
FXUS64 KJAN 271619 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1119 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY IS LOCATED GENERALLY
OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH STABLE AIR IS IN PLACE MAKING FOR
A NICE MORNING DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR SOUTH IN LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. A RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAS SPREAD NORTH FROM THIS INTO MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR THAT AREA IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER. A WAKE LOW HAD BEEN NOTED MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE DECAYING PRECIP SHIELD.

FOR TODAY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD AS MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOP SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW THAT
WILL GRADUALLY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION STARTING LATER
TODAY AND INTO THE REST OF THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THIS RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS
EVENING. HAVE CUT POPS SOME GIVEN THINKING THAT MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD KEEP US RAINFREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BUT COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS
PAST WEEKEND THANKS TO THE FROPA AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. /28/


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING.EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES AFTER 01-02Z. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES BRINGING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING./17/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST.
PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF LOW
OVER TEXAS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WITH
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WILL
BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MAINLY
VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S./15/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND
MOVE EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. OTHER THAN LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. /EC/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  55  65  50 /  26  78  71  40
MERIDIAN      73  55  66  51 /  11  56  69  56
VICKSBURG     72  56  62  50 /  38  84  64  29
HATTIESBURG   76  60  71  53 /  44  86  66  38
NATCHEZ       73  58  65  49 /  55  88  60  24
GREENVILLE    68  54  60  51 /  14  68  69  29
GREENWOOD     69  54  61  50 /  12  52  68  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/17/15/EC




000
FXUS64 KJAN 270922
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST.
PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF LOW
OVER TEXAS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WITH
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WILL
BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MAINLY
VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S./15/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND
MOVE EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. OTHER THAN LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...

ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING...BUT PATCHY STRATUS COULD
BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO HBG THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING BY 15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 01-02Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES BRINGING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  55  65  50 /  36  78  71  40
MERIDIAN      73  55  66  51 /  13  56  69  56
VICKSBURG     72  56  62  50 /  43  84  64  29
HATTIESBURG   76  60  71  53 /  45  86  66  38
NATCHEZ       73  58  65  49 /  55  88  60  24
GREENVILLE    68  54  60  51 /  24  68  69  29
GREENWOOD     69  54  61  50 /  13  52  68  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/EC/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 270922
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST.
PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF LOW
OVER TEXAS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WITH
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WILL
BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MAINLY
VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S./15/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND
MOVE EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. OTHER THAN LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...

ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING...BUT PATCHY STRATUS COULD
BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO HBG THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING BY 15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 01-02Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES BRINGING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  55  65  50 /  36  78  71  40
MERIDIAN      73  55  66  51 /  13  56  69  56
VICKSBURG     72  56  62  50 /  43  84  64  29
HATTIESBURG   76  60  71  53 /  45  86  66  38
NATCHEZ       73  58  65  49 /  55  88  60  24
GREENVILLE    68  54  60  51 /  24  68  69  29
GREENWOOD     69  54  61  50 /  13  52  68  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/EC/



000
FXUS64 KJAN 270302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
CWA JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS NOTED ALONG HIGHWAY 82. THE FRONT AND THE DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SAG INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS STILL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AND TRACKING JUST SOUTHWEST OF
OUR CWA BY MORNING. MOST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A FEW STORMS OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST MOST ZONES BY SUNRISE. DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK MON AT HBG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z MONDAY MORNING...WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND ACROSS
SW MS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WL SPREAD ACROSS HBG MON AFTN. GUSTY NE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MON OVER THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. /DL/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A NICE BUT SOMEWHAT WARM DAY TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. LOWER 80S ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR ALSO
BEING NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OR
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE BOUNDARY
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
AT LEAST BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES APPEAR DECENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT.
THERE IS SOME THOUGHT THAT THIS COULD REMAIN STILL SOUTH OF MY CWA
AND HAVE NOT YET INCLUDED ANYTHING IN OUR HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS. THE
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-20
WITH SHOWERS PREDOMINATE NORTH OF SAID INTERSTATE. GIVEN THE MORE
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER AT ALL BUT SOME BETTER LAPSE RATES EXIST THAT MAY
SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC
LOW.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION INTO FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A SPECTACULAR
END TO APRIL AND BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  72  55  65 /   9  28  59  71
MERIDIAN      58  73  55  66 /   7  11  39  69
VICKSBURG     62  72  56  62 /  15  37  64  64
HATTIESBURG   64  76  60  71 /  12  47  65  66
NATCHEZ       64  73  58  65 /  29  53  70  60
GREENVILLE    57  68  54  60 /  10  24  51  69
GREENWOOD     56  69  54  61 /   7  13  35  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28




000
FXUS64 KJAN 270302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
CWA JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS NOTED ALONG HIGHWAY 82. THE FRONT AND THE DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SAG INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS STILL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AND TRACKING JUST SOUTHWEST OF
OUR CWA BY MORNING. MOST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A FEW STORMS OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST MOST ZONES BY SUNRISE. DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK MON AT HBG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z MONDAY MORNING...WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND ACROSS
SW MS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WL SPREAD ACROSS HBG MON AFTN. GUSTY NE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MON OVER THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. /DL/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A NICE BUT SOMEWHAT WARM DAY TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. LOWER 80S ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR ALSO
BEING NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OR
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE BOUNDARY
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
AT LEAST BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES APPEAR DECENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT.
THERE IS SOME THOUGHT THAT THIS COULD REMAIN STILL SOUTH OF MY CWA
AND HAVE NOT YET INCLUDED ANYTHING IN OUR HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS. THE
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-20
WITH SHOWERS PREDOMINATE NORTH OF SAID INTERSTATE. GIVEN THE MORE
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER AT ALL BUT SOME BETTER LAPSE RATES EXIST THAT MAY
SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC
LOW.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION INTO FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A SPECTACULAR
END TO APRIL AND BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  72  55  65 /   9  28  59  71
MERIDIAN      58  73  55  66 /   7  11  39  69
VICKSBURG     62  72  56  62 /  15  37  64  64
HATTIESBURG   64  76  60  71 /  12  47  65  66
NATCHEZ       64  73  58  65 /  29  53  70  60
GREENVILLE    57  68  54  60 /  10  24  51  69
GREENWOOD     56  69  54  61 /   7  13  35  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28



000
FXUS64 KJAN 262119
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A NICE BUT SOMEWHAT WARM DAY TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. LOWER 80S ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR ALSO
BEING NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OR
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE BOUNDARY
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
AT LEAST BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES APPEAR DECENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT.
THERE IS SOME THOUGHT THAT THIS COULD REMAIN STILL SOUTH OF MY CWA
AND HAVE NOT YET INCLUDED ANYTHING IN OUR HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS. THE
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-20
WITH SHOWERS PREDOMINATE NORTH OF SAID INTERSTATE. GIVEN THE MORE
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER AT ALL BUT SOME BETTER LAPSE RATES EXIST THAT MAY
SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC
LOW.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION INTO FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A SPECTACULAR
END TO APRIL AND BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK MON...ESPECIALLY AT HBG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER OR ACROSS SW MISS. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  72  55  65 /   9  28  59  71
MERIDIAN      58  73  55  66 /   7  11  39  69
VICKSBURG     62  72  56  62 /  13  37  64  64
HATTIESBURG   64  76  60  71 /  12  47  65  66
NATCHEZ       64  73  58  65 /  29  53  70  60
GREENVILLE    57  68  54  60 /  10  24  51  69
GREENWOOD     56  69  54  61 /   7  13  35  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/DL



000
FXUS64 KJAN 262119
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A NICE BUT SOMEWHAT WARM DAY TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. LOWER 80S ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR ALSO
BEING NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OR
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE BOUNDARY
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
AT LEAST BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES APPEAR DECENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT.
THERE IS SOME THOUGHT THAT THIS COULD REMAIN STILL SOUTH OF MY CWA
AND HAVE NOT YET INCLUDED ANYTHING IN OUR HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS. THE
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-20
WITH SHOWERS PREDOMINATE NORTH OF SAID INTERSTATE. GIVEN THE MORE
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER AT ALL BUT SOME BETTER LAPSE RATES EXIST THAT MAY
SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC
LOW.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION INTO FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A SPECTACULAR
END TO APRIL AND BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK MON...ESPECIALLY AT HBG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER OR ACROSS SW MISS. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  72  55  65 /   9  28  59  71
MERIDIAN      58  73  55  66 /   7  11  39  69
VICKSBURG     62  72  56  62 /  13  37  64  64
HATTIESBURG   64  76  60  71 /  12  47  65  66
NATCHEZ       64  73  58  65 /  29  53  70  60
GREENVILLE    57  68  54  60 /  10  24  51  69
GREENWOOD     56  69  54  61 /   7  13  35  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/DL



000
FXUS64 KJAN 262119
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A NICE BUT SOMEWHAT WARM DAY TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. LOWER 80S ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR ALSO
BEING NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OR
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE BOUNDARY
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
AT LEAST BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES APPEAR DECENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT.
THERE IS SOME THOUGHT THAT THIS COULD REMAIN STILL SOUTH OF MY CWA
AND HAVE NOT YET INCLUDED ANYTHING IN OUR HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS. THE
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-20
WITH SHOWERS PREDOMINATE NORTH OF SAID INTERSTATE. GIVEN THE MORE
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER AT ALL BUT SOME BETTER LAPSE RATES EXIST THAT MAY
SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC
LOW.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION INTO FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A SPECTACULAR
END TO APRIL AND BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK MON...ESPECIALLY AT HBG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER OR ACROSS SW MISS. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  72  55  65 /   9  28  59  71
MERIDIAN      58  73  55  66 /   7  11  39  69
VICKSBURG     62  72  56  62 /  13  37  64  64
HATTIESBURG   64  76  60  71 /  12  47  65  66
NATCHEZ       64  73  58  65 /  29  53  70  60
GREENVILLE    57  68  54  60 /  10  24  51  69
GREENWOOD     56  69  54  61 /   7  13  35  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/DL



000
FXUS64 KJAN 262119
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A NICE BUT SOMEWHAT WARM DAY TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. LOWER 80S ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR ALSO
BEING NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OR
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE BOUNDARY
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
AT LEAST BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES APPEAR DECENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT.
THERE IS SOME THOUGHT THAT THIS COULD REMAIN STILL SOUTH OF MY CWA
AND HAVE NOT YET INCLUDED ANYTHING IN OUR HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS. THE
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-20
WITH SHOWERS PREDOMINATE NORTH OF SAID INTERSTATE. GIVEN THE MORE
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER AT ALL BUT SOME BETTER LAPSE RATES EXIST THAT MAY
SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC
LOW.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION INTO FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A SPECTACULAR
END TO APRIL AND BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK MON...ESPECIALLY AT HBG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER OR ACROSS SW MISS. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  72  55  65 /   9  28  59  71
MERIDIAN      58  73  55  66 /   7  11  39  69
VICKSBURG     62  72  56  62 /  13  37  64  64
HATTIESBURG   64  76  60  71 /  12  47  65  66
NATCHEZ       64  73  58  65 /  29  53  70  60
GREENVILLE    57  68  54  60 /  10  24  51  69
GREENWOOD     56  69  54  61 /   7  13  35  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/DL



000
FXUS64 KJAN 261607 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1107 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER NICE MORNING WITH PLENTY OF SUN AFTER
SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG DISSIPATED. THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER
WARM AS A FRONT OOZES INTO OUR REGION AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS TODAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. 12Z KJAN SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.60 INCHES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. SOME HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM OUT TO OUR WEST. I HAVE KEPT MY WEST DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THINKING THAT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE TOO SPARSE TO GENERATE
MUCH. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TRENDS. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK MON...ESPECIALLY AT HBG. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SHIFTING TO
NW/N AS A FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. /DL/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THANKFULLY QUIET
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE ONLY
SURFACE WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING
NORTHERN ZONES. TODAY THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN TO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ARRIVING TOO LATE TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM REACHING HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. ONLY A FEW SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 MAY SEE MAXIMUMS
LIMITED TO LESS THAN 80 DEGREES. AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LIFT BY 10 AM ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY IN OUR REGION BUT BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SUGGESTS ENOUGH POOLING MOISTURE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO BUILD MODERATE INSTABILITY. SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COMING RIGHT UP TO THE NORTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WE EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
ERUPT SOME POTENT STORMS MAINLY BACK TO OUR WEST (AND CLOSER TO A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS). FOR NOW OUR CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH THAT MOST (IF NOT ALL) VIGOROUS STORMS WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT AND THEREFORE WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY RISK IN THE HWO.
HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE THREAT IS DEFINITELY CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR WITH VIGILANCE.

BY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. MEANWHILE...THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE EJECTING MINOR
DISTURBANCES THIS WAY. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE PRODUCED ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A PATH FOR ONE OR MORE VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO FOLLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SPC IS ADVERTISING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO
OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THIS TIME PERIOD BUT WE STILL WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO DUE TO CONFIDENCE THAT
THE SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ANY COMPLEXES SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. DESPITE THIS THINKING WE STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN AND SOME STORMS AT THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
ALL THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE GULF IS FORECAST BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO
HELP SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW...WHICH SHOULD THEN REINFORCE THE COOLER
AND MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR OVER THE REGION (ALTHOUGH ALSO PROBABLY
HELPING TO EXPAND PRECIP FURTHER NORTH THROUGH FRONTOGENETIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISMS). /BB/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ON TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ALABAMA WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF INDICATES LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 KM/CM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS ISNT QUIT SO UNSTABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE FACT THERE WILL BE A COOL STABLE LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF SEVERE...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO WATCHED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO NEAR .5 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  60  74  54 /   6  11  20  51
MERIDIAN      86  57  74  56 /   5   9  12  35
VICKSBURG     86  61  73  56 /   9  16  26  60
HATTIESBURG   89  63  77  59 /   5  15  32  55
NATCHEZ       86  64  76  57 /   9  18  47  63
GREENVILLE    82  57  70  54 /  10  18  19  50
GREENWOOD     82  56  70  52 /   8  12  13  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/DL/BB/15



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260929
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THANKFULLY QUIET
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE ONLY
SURFACE WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING
NORTHERN ZONES. TODAY THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN TO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ARRIVING TOO LATE TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM REACHING HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. ONLY A FEW SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 MAY SEE MAXIMUMS
LIMITED TO LESS THAN 80 DEGREES. AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LIFT BY 10 AM ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY IN OUR REGION BUT BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SUGGESTS ENOUGH POOLING MOISTURE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO BUILD MODERATE INSTABILITY. SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COMING RIGHT UP TO THE NORTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WE EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
ERUPT SOME POTENT STORMS MAINLY BACK TO OUR WEST (AND CLOSER TO A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS). FOR NOW OUR CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH THAT MOST (IF NOT ALL) VIGOROUS STORMS WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT AND THEREFORE WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY RISK IN THE HWO.
HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE THREAT IS DEFINITELY CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR WITH VIGILANCE.

BY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. MEANWHILE...THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE EJECTING MINOR
DISTURBANCES THIS WAY. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE PRODUCED ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A PATH FOR ONE OR MORE VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO FOLLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SPC IS ADVERTISING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO
OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THIS TIME PERIOD BUT WE STILL WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO DUE TO CONFIDENCE THAT
THE SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ANY COMPLEXES SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. DESPITE THIS THINKING WE STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN AND SOME STORMS AT THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
ALL THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE GULF IS FORECAST BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO
HELP SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW...WHICH SHOULD THEN REINFORCE THE COOLER
AND MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR OVER THE REGION (ALTHOUGH ALSO PROBABLY
HELPING TO EXPAND PRECIP FURTHER NORTH THROUGH FRONTOGENETIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISMS). /BB/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ON TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ALABAMA WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF INDICATES LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 KM/CM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS ISNT QUIT SO UNSTABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE FACT THERE WILL BE A COOL STABLE LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF SEVERE...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO WATCHED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO NEAR .5 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND./15/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 15 UTC) DUE MAINLY TO LOW
CEILINGS. BRIEF DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME
AROUND PIB/HBG. LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH A SLOWLY PASSING COLD FRONT CAUSING SURFACE
WINDS TO GO FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT ALL WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
/BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  60  74  54 /   6  11  20  51
MERIDIAN      86  57  74  56 /   5   9  12  35
VICKSBURG     86  61  73  56 /  12  16  26  60
HATTIESBURG   89  63  77  59 /   5  15  32  55
NATCHEZ       86  64  76  57 /  10  18  47  63
GREENVILLE    80  57  70  54 /  14  18  19  50
GREENWOOD     81  56  70  52 /   9  12  13  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/15



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260929
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THANKFULLY QUIET
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE ONLY
SURFACE WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING
NORTHERN ZONES. TODAY THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN TO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ARRIVING TOO LATE TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM REACHING HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. ONLY A FEW SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 MAY SEE MAXIMUMS
LIMITED TO LESS THAN 80 DEGREES. AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LIFT BY 10 AM ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY IN OUR REGION BUT BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MODELS SUGGESTS ENOUGH POOLING MOISTURE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE MS RIVER TO BUILD MODERATE INSTABILITY. SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS COMING RIGHT UP TO THE NORTHWEST EDGE
OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WE EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
ERUPT SOME POTENT STORMS MAINLY BACK TO OUR WEST (AND CLOSER TO A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS). FOR NOW OUR CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH THAT MOST (IF NOT ALL) VIGOROUS STORMS WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT AND THEREFORE WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY RISK IN THE HWO.
HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE THREAT IS DEFINITELY CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR WITH VIGILANCE.

BY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. MEANWHILE...THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST BUT WILL ALSO BE EJECTING MINOR
DISTURBANCES THIS WAY. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE PRODUCED ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A PATH FOR ONE OR MORE VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO FOLLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SPC IS ADVERTISING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS INTO
OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THIS TIME PERIOD BUT WE STILL WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO DUE TO CONFIDENCE THAT
THE SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ANY COMPLEXES SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. DESPITE THIS THINKING WE STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN AND SOME STORMS AT THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
ALL THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE GULF IS FORECAST BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO
HELP SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW...WHICH SHOULD THEN REINFORCE THE COOLER
AND MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR OVER THE REGION (ALTHOUGH ALSO PROBABLY
HELPING TO EXPAND PRECIP FURTHER NORTH THROUGH FRONTOGENETIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISMS). /BB/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ON TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ALABAMA WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF INDICATES LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 KM/CM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS ISNT QUIT SO UNSTABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE FACT THERE WILL BE A COOL STABLE LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF SEVERE...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO WATCHED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO NEAR .5 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND./15/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 15 UTC) DUE MAINLY TO LOW
CEILINGS. BRIEF DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME
AROUND PIB/HBG. LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE ALL VFR WITH A SLOWLY PASSING COLD FRONT CAUSING SURFACE
WINDS TO GO FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT ALL WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
/BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  60  74  54 /   6  11  20  51
MERIDIAN      86  57  74  56 /   5   9  12  35
VICKSBURG     86  61  73  56 /  12  16  26  60
HATTIESBURG   89  63  77  59 /   5  15  32  55
NATCHEZ       86  64  76  57 /  10  18  47  63
GREENVILLE    80  57  70  54 /  14  18  19  50
GREENWOOD     81  56  70  52 /   9  12  13  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/15




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES WERE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE WHOLE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A COOLER START DUE TO
RAIN...HAS ALLOWED THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA TO COOL FASTER THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO RUNNING LOWER SO HAVE
LOWERED MORNING LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN SO HAVE
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED AND CLEAR SKIES WERE BEING
OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES AT 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 09Z WHEN MODELS SUGGEST MOIST LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS REDEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG/S
OF THE TVR-JAN-MEI CORRIDOR. THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT
QUICKLY BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
/EC/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...SOME CLEARING IS BEING SEEN AROUND THE REGION AND ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS THE
DELTA AND THE CLEARING LINE APPEARS TO BE AROUND THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS HAS HELPED
BRING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BEGUN THE CLEARING PROCESS.
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW CAN ALSO BE SEEN SPINNING ACROSS MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD BE SLOWLY TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MORNING CONVECTION THAT BROUGHT MOSTLY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE PINE
BELT AND SEVERE WEATHER JUST SOUTH OF MY CWA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE THE END TO THE RAIN FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRY BUT FAIRLY WARM DAY. THIS COMES AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING SFC LOW. AS IS GENERALLY THE
CASE AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WONT PLOW THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IN FACT SHOULD SLOWLY OOZE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY CWA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF MY CWA BY LATER ON MONDAY. THIS COMES AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW SPINS ACROSS OK/TX AND A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. GIVEN THE
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS...POTENT/STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DONT LOOK TO BE A CONCERN AT
THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AND RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
DESPITE THE HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...SUMMER WONT BE STARTING JUST YET. A
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  87  60  76 /   8   5   9  24
MERIDIAN      60  86  58  75 /   8   5   7  10
VICKSBURG     65  86  61  76 /   7   6  14  28
HATTIESBURG   64  89  65  80 /   8   4   9  27
NATCHEZ       64  87  64  76 /   6   4  19  43
GREENVILLE    62  81  58  70 /   6   5  12  15
GREENWOOD     62  81  56  72 /   8   5   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES WERE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE WHOLE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A COOLER START DUE TO
RAIN...HAS ALLOWED THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA TO COOL FASTER THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO RUNNING LOWER SO HAVE
LOWERED MORNING LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN SO HAVE
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED AND CLEAR SKIES WERE BEING
OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES AT 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 09Z WHEN MODELS SUGGEST MOIST LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS REDEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG/S
OF THE TVR-JAN-MEI CORRIDOR. THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT
QUICKLY BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
/EC/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...SOME CLEARING IS BEING SEEN AROUND THE REGION AND ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS THE
DELTA AND THE CLEARING LINE APPEARS TO BE AROUND THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS HAS HELPED
BRING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BEGUN THE CLEARING PROCESS.
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW CAN ALSO BE SEEN SPINNING ACROSS MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD BE SLOWLY TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MORNING CONVECTION THAT BROUGHT MOSTLY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE PINE
BELT AND SEVERE WEATHER JUST SOUTH OF MY CWA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE THE END TO THE RAIN FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRY BUT FAIRLY WARM DAY. THIS COMES AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING SFC LOW. AS IS GENERALLY THE
CASE AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WONT PLOW THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IN FACT SHOULD SLOWLY OOZE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY CWA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF MY CWA BY LATER ON MONDAY. THIS COMES AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW SPINS ACROSS OK/TX AND A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. GIVEN THE
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS...POTENT/STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DONT LOOK TO BE A CONCERN AT
THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AND RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
DESPITE THE HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...SUMMER WONT BE STARTING JUST YET. A
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  87  60  76 /   8   5   9  24
MERIDIAN      60  86  58  75 /   8   5   7  10
VICKSBURG     65  86  61  76 /   7   6  14  28
HATTIESBURG   64  89  65  80 /   8   4   9  27
NATCHEZ       64  87  64  76 /   6   4  19  43
GREENVILLE    62  81  58  70 /   6   5  12  15
GREENWOOD     62  81  56  72 /   8   5   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28



000
FXUS64 KJAN 260302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES WERE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE WHOLE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A COOLER START DUE TO
RAIN...HAS ALLOWED THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA TO COOL FASTER THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO RUNNING LOWER SO HAVE
LOWERED MORNING LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN SO HAVE
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED AND CLEAR SKIES WERE BEING
OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES AT 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 09Z WHEN MODELS SUGGEST MOIST LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS REDEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG/S
OF THE TVR-JAN-MEI CORRIDOR. THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT
QUICKLY BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
/EC/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...SOME CLEARING IS BEING SEEN AROUND THE REGION AND ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS THE
DELTA AND THE CLEARING LINE APPEARS TO BE AROUND THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS HAS HELPED
BRING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BEGUN THE CLEARING PROCESS.
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW CAN ALSO BE SEEN SPINNING ACROSS MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD BE SLOWLY TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MORNING CONVECTION THAT BROUGHT MOSTLY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE PINE
BELT AND SEVERE WEATHER JUST SOUTH OF MY CWA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE THE END TO THE RAIN FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRY BUT FAIRLY WARM DAY. THIS COMES AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING SFC LOW. AS IS GENERALLY THE
CASE AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WONT PLOW THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IN FACT SHOULD SLOWLY OOZE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY CWA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF MY CWA BY LATER ON MONDAY. THIS COMES AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW SPINS ACROSS OK/TX AND A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. GIVEN THE
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS...POTENT/STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DONT LOOK TO BE A CONCERN AT
THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AND RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
DESPITE THE HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...SUMMER WONT BE STARTING JUST YET. A
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  87  60  76 /   8   5   9  24
MERIDIAN      60  86  58  75 /   8   5   7  10
VICKSBURG     65  86  61  76 /   7   6  14  28
HATTIESBURG   64  89  65  80 /   8   4   9  27
NATCHEZ       64  87  64  76 /   6   4  19  43
GREENVILLE    62  81  58  70 /   6   5  12  15
GREENWOOD     62  81  56  72 /   8   5   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28




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