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000
FXUS64 KJAN 222033
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

AS THE H5 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE
EAST...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE
S/SW INTO THE REGION...EXPECT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA AS PWATS FALL TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES.
ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE TO THE W WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT WARMING BUT WE
COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT AND LESS EFFICIENT MIXING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N FINALLY
BUILDS S AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E OF THE AREA...EXPECT WARMER
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR ON FRIDAY AS PWATS FALL FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH TO NEAR 0.3
INCHES. EXPECT A CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE W/NW.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT SPREAD IN
MAV/MET/EURO MOS AT TIMES FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. GFS
SEEMED TOO COOL AS THE OPERATIONAL WAS ON THE LOW END OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THUS...WENT NEAR A BLEND OF EITHER MAV/EURO FOR
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AND A BLEND OF MET/EURO FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
ADJUSTED SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. RELEVANT PORTION
OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER
THE REGION. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL OR
WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TO START THE PERIOD SATURDAY
TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND END THE PERIOD
NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SMOKE FROM A NEARBY FIRE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD AT JAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT CAUSE IMPACTS TO AVIATION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  72  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   43  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       45  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  68  44  76 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     42  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/19/DL






000
FXUS64 KJAN 222033
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

AS THE H5 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE
EAST...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE
S/SW INTO THE REGION...EXPECT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA AS PWATS FALL TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES.
ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE TO THE W WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT WARMING BUT WE
COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT AND LESS EFFICIENT MIXING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N FINALLY
BUILDS S AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E OF THE AREA...EXPECT WARMER
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR ON FRIDAY AS PWATS FALL FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH TO NEAR 0.3
INCHES. EXPECT A CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE W/NW.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT SPREAD IN
MAV/MET/EURO MOS AT TIMES FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. GFS
SEEMED TOO COOL AS THE OPERATIONAL WAS ON THE LOW END OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THUS...WENT NEAR A BLEND OF EITHER MAV/EURO FOR
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AND A BLEND OF MET/EURO FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
ADJUSTED SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. RELEVANT PORTION
OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER
THE REGION. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL OR
WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TO START THE PERIOD SATURDAY
TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND END THE PERIOD
NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SMOKE FROM A NEARBY FIRE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD AT JAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT CAUSE IMPACTS TO AVIATION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  72  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   43  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       45  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  68  44  76 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     42  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/19/DL






000
FXUS64 KJAN 221449 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
949 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET AFTERNOON IN STORE AS DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS ARE UPPER 40S IN NE MS WHILE IN THE MID 50S IN THE SW. 12Z
KJAN SOUNDING SHOWS H900 TEMPS AROUND 13-14C...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S. WENT WITH EUROMOS AS TEMPS WERE WARMING SLIGHTLY
QUICKER AND EFFICIENT MIXING/ENSEMBLE MOS SUPPORT HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO WARMER. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE NE TODAY AS 1024MB HIGH
PRESSURE AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILD IN FROM THE NE.
MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAY...
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING FRONT. DUE TO THIS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. OVERALL...GUIDANCE
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND VALUES WILL BE FOLLOWED. THE
EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH TODAY WHERE A COMBINATION OF THE NAM
OR RAW GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FIT THE SITUATION BETTER. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA OF 70-77 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS MAINLY IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS THU WILL REFLECT THE SAME TREND AND RANGE FROM
70-75. /CME/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER THE
REGION.  WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL
OR WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD FRIDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW
SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50...AND END THE PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE
50S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  43  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      75  39  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     77  42  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   78  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    73  44  70  43 /   0   0   4   0
GREENWOOD     73  41  71  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/DL/CME/19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 220752
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
252 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING FRONT. DUE TO THIS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. OVERALL...GUIDANCE
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND VALUES WILL BE FOLLOWED. THE
EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH TODAY WHERE A COMBINATION OF THE NAM
OR RAW GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FIT THE SITUATION BETTER. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA OF 70-77 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS MAINLY IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS THU WILL REFLECT THE SAME TREND AND RANGE FROM
70-75. /CME/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER THE
REGION.  WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL
OR WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD FRIDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW
SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50...AND END THE PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE
50S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VIS CONDITIONS
AT A SITE OR TWO UNTIL 13Z...BUT THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR TODAY/TONIGHT. LOOK FOR STEADY NNE WINDS TODAY WITH A DECREASE
IN WINDS FOR TONIGHT. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  43  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      74  39  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     76  42  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   78  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    73  44  70  43 /   0   0   4   0
GREENWOOD     72  41  71  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 220151 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
851 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT IS A LOT LIKE LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
WHERE THEY WERE THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. HAD TO INCREASE
THE DEWPOINTS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS JUST A BIT FOR THIS
UPDATE. PATCHY FOG AROUND LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL BE LESS LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
/DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

EVIDENCE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SEEN IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS WITH STRATOCUMULUS DECK ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
LOWER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS MIXING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH MS.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH MID WEEK. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET DOWN TO NEAR 37F OVER EASTERN MS...BUT
PROBABLY NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT FROST. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS SET TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY. THE SAME GOES FOR
LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. A BOUNDARY
SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  75  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      45  75  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     48  77  41  74 /   0   0   0   1
HATTIESBURG   50  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       51  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    50  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   7
GREENWOOD     46  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 212047
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

EVIDENCE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SEEN IN VISIBIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS WITH STRATOCUMULUS DECK ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
LOWER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS MIXING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH MS.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH MID WEEK. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET DOWN TO NEAR 37F OVER EASTERN MS...BUT
PROBABLY NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT FROST. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS SET TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY. THE SAME GOES FOR
LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. A BOUNDARY
SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL BE LESS LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  75  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      45  75  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     48  77  41  74 /   0   0   0   1
HATTIESBURG   50  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       51  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    50  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   7
GREENWOOD     46  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/19/DL/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 211541
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER OVER NE LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE WAY FOR
TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED MORNING AT MEI AND HBG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 211541
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER OVER NE LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE WAY FOR
TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED MORNING AT MEI AND HBG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 211541
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER OVER NE LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE WAY FOR
TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED MORNING AT MEI AND HBG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 210750
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE A SITE OR TWO MAY SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION FROM
SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT N TYPE WINDS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  49  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      80  46  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     80  48  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   82  52  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       79  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    79  52  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     79  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 210750
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE A SITE OR TWO MAY SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION FROM
SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT N TYPE WINDS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  49  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      80  46  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     80  48  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   82  52  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       79  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    79  52  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     79  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 210750
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE A SITE OR TWO MAY SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION FROM
SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT N TYPE WINDS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  49  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      80  46  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     80  48  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   82  52  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       79  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    79  52  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     79  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 210750
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE A SITE OR TWO MAY SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION FROM
SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT N TYPE WINDS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  49  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      80  46  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     80  48  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   82  52  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       79  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    79  52  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     79  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 210216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE DEWPOINT TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WL BECOME NLY
AROUND 6KTS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 210216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE DEWPOINT TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WL BECOME NLY
AROUND 6KTS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 210216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE DEWPOINT TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WL BECOME NLY
AROUND 6KTS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 210216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE DEWPOINT TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WL BECOME NLY
AROUND 6KTS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 210216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE DEWPOINT TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WL BECOME NLY
AROUND 6KTS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 210216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE DEWPOINT TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WL BECOME NLY
AROUND 6KTS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






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