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000
FXUS64 KJAN 051619
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

INFRARED SATELLITE DATA SHOW INFLECTION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN LA. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES IT TO THE
MS/ALABAMA BORDER BY AROUND 21Z. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL/NE LA
ACROSS SW/CENTRAL/NE PORTIONS OF MS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS COLD
ADVECTION HAS PUSHED THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHEAST TO A BROOKHAVEN TO
FOREST TO PHILADELPHIA TO MACON LINE. RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING SITUATION WELL AND SUGGESTS THE FREEZING LINE WILL PUSH A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
STABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS HEAVIER QPF LATE THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE PASSES
ACROSS AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURGES IN.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN A BIG CHALLENGE WITH A BIG MID LEVEL
WARM NOSE IN THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING (+11 DEG C) THAT BROUGHT COMPLETE
MELTING...ABOVE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD LAYER (-4.5 AND ~4000 FT DEEP)
WHICH APPARENTLY WAS ENOUGH FOR COMPLETE REFREEZING AS SLEET FELL AT
ABOUT THE TIME OF THE RAOB. SINCE THEN...THE FREEZING RAIN HAS MOSTLY
TRANSITIONED TO MDT/HEAVY SLEET OVER MOST OF THE AREA NW OF THE
FREEZING LINE. WE ASSUME THERE IS STILL A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE LESS OF AN ISSUE NOW.

THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ALIGNMENT IS STILL OK BUT
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE FREEZING LINE AS
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE PINE BELT REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE KEEPS FREEZING RAIN PROBS JUST NW OF
THE HATTIESBURG AREA...AND THE SREF HAS PERFORMED WELL HAVING HIT
SLEET PROBS HARD SEVERAL DAYS AGO. WILL MAKE UPDATES TO THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AND ADD SOME PRECIP INTO THE LATE AFTN OVER THE SE. WILL
ALSO PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON SLEET WITH A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS FURTHER OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS. /EC/

.AVIATION...MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT TAF
SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW CEILINGS
HEIGHTS.  A MIX BAG OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY THAT IN THE FORM OF A
SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW MIX...IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED AT NAMELY
KHKS...KJAN...AND KGTR.  AT KGLH AND KGWO...PRECIPITATION IS COMING
TO AN END.  THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW AT KMEI...FROM 17Z-20Z
TODAY...OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX...BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KHBG WILL REMAIN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER 30S.

ANY SITES THAT INDEED EXPERIENCE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD SEE
A LIGHT ICING ON AIRCRAFT AND OTHER METAL AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
AGAIN...THIS IS AND/OR WILL BE THE CASE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHBG
WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO COME TO AND END BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ANY RESIDUAL OR STANDING WATER ON AIRCRAFT...
RUNWAYS...TARMACS...AND RAMPS WILL FREEZE.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS...GUSTING
AT TIMES AROUND 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...
BUT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND RANGE BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

WINTER STORM ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AT 4 AM THE FREEZING LINE
AT THE SURFACE HAS SUNK DOWN TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND THIS FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALOFT THE MEAT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SWING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY PRESENTLY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
SCREAMING HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK HELPING TO FOCUS LIFT IN OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS A SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE LOOK RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE REPORTING MOSTLY SLEET. A FOCUSED BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP IS SETTING UP BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDER OCCURRING IN THIS PRECIP BAND (AND EVEN ELSEWHERE) GIVES
CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY WINTRY
CONSIDERING DROPPING TEMPS.

TAKING MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS INTO ACCOUNT WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING A BIT FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL MS
AND EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MS. WE WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IF NECESSARY. ONE THING
TO POINT OUT IS THAT WHILE SLEET HAS BEEN RATHER UBIQUITOUS SO
FAR THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE HEART OF
FORECAST AREA OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THAT
SAID...MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS SHOULD SEE SOME OF
COMBINATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE SLEET
NORTH OF I-20 AND MORE FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF I-20.

PRECIPITATION REALLY LOOKS TO BE TAPERING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY. DESPITE ENDING PRECIP LATER TODAY THE ONLY CHANCE
AT SUN SHOULD BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID
30S IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RAD COOLING LATE TONIGHT AFTER TODAYS STRONG NORTH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN. REMAINING ICE PACK IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL
HELP WITH COOLING AND ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS IN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND WELL DOWN IN THE 20S MOST OTHER AREAS. SOME RECORD LOWS
WILL LIKELY FALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA TONIGHT AND THE COMING DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN WAY BELOW NORMAL WITH MODIFYING
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATION TO BRING RATHER PERFECT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNDOWN WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN WAY BELOW
NORMAL. /BB/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE WEEKEND WILL
PUSH INTO MAINLY THE 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING
TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ039-
     045-046-049>051-054-055-059>062.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MSZ029>033-036>038-042>044-047-048-053.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ024-
     026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ016-
     023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 051619
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

INFRARED SATELLITE DATA SHOW INFLECTION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN LA. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES IT TO THE
MS/ALABAMA BORDER BY AROUND 21Z. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL/NE LA
ACROSS SW/CENTRAL/NE PORTIONS OF MS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS COLD
ADVECTION HAS PUSHED THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHEAST TO A BROOKHAVEN TO
FOREST TO PHILADELPHIA TO MACON LINE. RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING SITUATION WELL AND SUGGESTS THE FREEZING LINE WILL PUSH A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
STABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS HEAVIER QPF LATE THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE PASSES
ACROSS AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURGES IN.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN A BIG CHALLENGE WITH A BIG MID LEVEL
WARM NOSE IN THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING (+11 DEG C) THAT BROUGHT COMPLETE
MELTING...ABOVE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD LAYER (-4.5 AND ~4000 FT DEEP)
WHICH APPARENTLY WAS ENOUGH FOR COMPLETE REFREEZING AS SLEET FELL AT
ABOUT THE TIME OF THE RAOB. SINCE THEN...THE FREEZING RAIN HAS MOSTLY
TRANSITIONED TO MDT/HEAVY SLEET OVER MOST OF THE AREA NW OF THE
FREEZING LINE. WE ASSUME THERE IS STILL A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE LESS OF AN ISSUE NOW.

THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ALIGNMENT IS STILL OK BUT
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE FREEZING LINE AS
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE PINE BELT REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE KEEPS FREEZING RAIN PROBS JUST NW OF
THE HATTIESBURG AREA...AND THE SREF HAS PERFORMED WELL HAVING HIT
SLEET PROBS HARD SEVERAL DAYS AGO. WILL MAKE UPDATES TO THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AND ADD SOME PRECIP INTO THE LATE AFTN OVER THE SE. WILL
ALSO PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON SLEET WITH A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS FURTHER OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS. /EC/

.AVIATION...MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT TAF
SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW CEILINGS
HEIGHTS.  A MIX BAG OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY THAT IN THE FORM OF A
SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW MIX...IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED AT NAMELY
KHKS...KJAN...AND KGTR.  AT KGLH AND KGWO...PRECIPITATION IS COMING
TO AN END.  THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW AT KMEI...FROM 17Z-20Z
TODAY...OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX...BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KHBG WILL REMAIN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER 30S.

ANY SITES THAT INDEED EXPERIENCE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD SEE
A LIGHT ICING ON AIRCRAFT AND OTHER METAL AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
AGAIN...THIS IS AND/OR WILL BE THE CASE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHBG
WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO COME TO AND END BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ANY RESIDUAL OR STANDING WATER ON AIRCRAFT...
RUNWAYS...TARMACS...AND RAMPS WILL FREEZE.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS...GUSTING
AT TIMES AROUND 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...
BUT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND RANGE BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

WINTER STORM ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AT 4 AM THE FREEZING LINE
AT THE SURFACE HAS SUNK DOWN TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND THIS FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALOFT THE MEAT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SWING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY PRESENTLY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
SCREAMING HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK HELPING TO FOCUS LIFT IN OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS A SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE LOOK RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE REPORTING MOSTLY SLEET. A FOCUSED BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP IS SETTING UP BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDER OCCURRING IN THIS PRECIP BAND (AND EVEN ELSEWHERE) GIVES
CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY WINTRY
CONSIDERING DROPPING TEMPS.

TAKING MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS INTO ACCOUNT WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING A BIT FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL MS
AND EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MS. WE WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IF NECESSARY. ONE THING
TO POINT OUT IS THAT WHILE SLEET HAS BEEN RATHER UBIQUITOUS SO
FAR THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE HEART OF
FORECAST AREA OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THAT
SAID...MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS SHOULD SEE SOME OF
COMBINATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE SLEET
NORTH OF I-20 AND MORE FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF I-20.

PRECIPITATION REALLY LOOKS TO BE TAPERING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY. DESPITE ENDING PRECIP LATER TODAY THE ONLY CHANCE
AT SUN SHOULD BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID
30S IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RAD COOLING LATE TONIGHT AFTER TODAYS STRONG NORTH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN. REMAINING ICE PACK IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL
HELP WITH COOLING AND ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS IN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND WELL DOWN IN THE 20S MOST OTHER AREAS. SOME RECORD LOWS
WILL LIKELY FALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA TONIGHT AND THE COMING DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN WAY BELOW NORMAL WITH MODIFYING
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATION TO BRING RATHER PERFECT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNDOWN WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN WAY BELOW
NORMAL. /BB/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE WEEKEND WILL
PUSH INTO MAINLY THE 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING
TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ039-
     045-046-049>051-054-055-059>062.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MSZ029>033-036>038-042>044-047-048-053.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ024-
     026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ016-
     023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 051619
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

INFRARED SATELLITE DATA SHOW INFLECTION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN LA. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES IT TO THE
MS/ALABAMA BORDER BY AROUND 21Z. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL/NE LA
ACROSS SW/CENTRAL/NE PORTIONS OF MS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS COLD
ADVECTION HAS PUSHED THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHEAST TO A BROOKHAVEN TO
FOREST TO PHILADELPHIA TO MACON LINE. RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING SITUATION WELL AND SUGGESTS THE FREEZING LINE WILL PUSH A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
STABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS HEAVIER QPF LATE THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE PASSES
ACROSS AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURGES IN.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN A BIG CHALLENGE WITH A BIG MID LEVEL
WARM NOSE IN THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING (+11 DEG C) THAT BROUGHT COMPLETE
MELTING...ABOVE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD LAYER (-4.5 AND ~4000 FT DEEP)
WHICH APPARENTLY WAS ENOUGH FOR COMPLETE REFREEZING AS SLEET FELL AT
ABOUT THE TIME OF THE RAOB. SINCE THEN...THE FREEZING RAIN HAS MOSTLY
TRANSITIONED TO MDT/HEAVY SLEET OVER MOST OF THE AREA NW OF THE
FREEZING LINE. WE ASSUME THERE IS STILL A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE LESS OF AN ISSUE NOW.

THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ALIGNMENT IS STILL OK BUT
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE FREEZING LINE AS
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE PINE BELT REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE KEEPS FREEZING RAIN PROBS JUST NW OF
THE HATTIESBURG AREA...AND THE SREF HAS PERFORMED WELL HAVING HIT
SLEET PROBS HARD SEVERAL DAYS AGO. WILL MAKE UPDATES TO THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AND ADD SOME PRECIP INTO THE LATE AFTN OVER THE SE. WILL
ALSO PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON SLEET WITH A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS FURTHER OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS. /EC/

.AVIATION...MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT TAF
SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW CEILINGS
HEIGHTS.  A MIX BAG OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY THAT IN THE FORM OF A
SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW MIX...IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED AT NAMELY
KHKS...KJAN...AND KGTR.  AT KGLH AND KGWO...PRECIPITATION IS COMING
TO AN END.  THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW AT KMEI...FROM 17Z-20Z
TODAY...OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX...BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KHBG WILL REMAIN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER 30S.

ANY SITES THAT INDEED EXPERIENCE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD SEE
A LIGHT ICING ON AIRCRAFT AND OTHER METAL AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
AGAIN...THIS IS AND/OR WILL BE THE CASE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHBG
WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO COME TO AND END BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ANY RESIDUAL OR STANDING WATER ON AIRCRAFT...
RUNWAYS...TARMACS...AND RAMPS WILL FREEZE.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS...GUSTING
AT TIMES AROUND 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...
BUT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND RANGE BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

WINTER STORM ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AT 4 AM THE FREEZING LINE
AT THE SURFACE HAS SUNK DOWN TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND THIS FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALOFT THE MEAT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SWING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY PRESENTLY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
SCREAMING HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK HELPING TO FOCUS LIFT IN OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS A SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE LOOK RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE REPORTING MOSTLY SLEET. A FOCUSED BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP IS SETTING UP BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDER OCCURRING IN THIS PRECIP BAND (AND EVEN ELSEWHERE) GIVES
CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY WINTRY
CONSIDERING DROPPING TEMPS.

TAKING MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS INTO ACCOUNT WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING A BIT FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL MS
AND EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MS. WE WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IF NECESSARY. ONE THING
TO POINT OUT IS THAT WHILE SLEET HAS BEEN RATHER UBIQUITOUS SO
FAR THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE HEART OF
FORECAST AREA OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THAT
SAID...MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS SHOULD SEE SOME OF
COMBINATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE SLEET
NORTH OF I-20 AND MORE FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF I-20.

PRECIPITATION REALLY LOOKS TO BE TAPERING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY. DESPITE ENDING PRECIP LATER TODAY THE ONLY CHANCE
AT SUN SHOULD BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID
30S IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RAD COOLING LATE TONIGHT AFTER TODAYS STRONG NORTH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN. REMAINING ICE PACK IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL
HELP WITH COOLING AND ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS IN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND WELL DOWN IN THE 20S MOST OTHER AREAS. SOME RECORD LOWS
WILL LIKELY FALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA TONIGHT AND THE COMING DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN WAY BELOW NORMAL WITH MODIFYING
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATION TO BRING RATHER PERFECT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNDOWN WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN WAY BELOW
NORMAL. /BB/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE WEEKEND WILL
PUSH INTO MAINLY THE 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING
TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ039-
     045-046-049>051-054-055-059>062.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MSZ029>033-036>038-042>044-047-048-053.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ024-
     026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ016-
     023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 051619
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

INFRARED SATELLITE DATA SHOW INFLECTION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN LA. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES IT TO THE
MS/ALABAMA BORDER BY AROUND 21Z. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL/NE LA
ACROSS SW/CENTRAL/NE PORTIONS OF MS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS COLD
ADVECTION HAS PUSHED THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHEAST TO A BROOKHAVEN TO
FOREST TO PHILADELPHIA TO MACON LINE. RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING SITUATION WELL AND SUGGESTS THE FREEZING LINE WILL PUSH A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
STABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS HEAVIER QPF LATE THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE PASSES
ACROSS AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURGES IN.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN A BIG CHALLENGE WITH A BIG MID LEVEL
WARM NOSE IN THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING (+11 DEG C) THAT BROUGHT COMPLETE
MELTING...ABOVE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD LAYER (-4.5 AND ~4000 FT DEEP)
WHICH APPARENTLY WAS ENOUGH FOR COMPLETE REFREEZING AS SLEET FELL AT
ABOUT THE TIME OF THE RAOB. SINCE THEN...THE FREEZING RAIN HAS MOSTLY
TRANSITIONED TO MDT/HEAVY SLEET OVER MOST OF THE AREA NW OF THE
FREEZING LINE. WE ASSUME THERE IS STILL A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE LESS OF AN ISSUE NOW.

THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY ALIGNMENT IS STILL OK BUT
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE FREEZING LINE AS
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE PINE BELT REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE KEEPS FREEZING RAIN PROBS JUST NW OF
THE HATTIESBURG AREA...AND THE SREF HAS PERFORMED WELL HAVING HIT
SLEET PROBS HARD SEVERAL DAYS AGO. WILL MAKE UPDATES TO THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AND ADD SOME PRECIP INTO THE LATE AFTN OVER THE SE. WILL
ALSO PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON SLEET WITH A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS FURTHER OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS. /EC/

.AVIATION...MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT TAF
SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW CEILINGS
HEIGHTS.  A MIX BAG OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY THAT IN THE FORM OF A
SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW MIX...IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED AT NAMELY
KHKS...KJAN...AND KGTR.  AT KGLH AND KGWO...PRECIPITATION IS COMING
TO AN END.  THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW AT KMEI...FROM 17Z-20Z
TODAY...OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX...BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KHBG WILL REMAIN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER 30S.

ANY SITES THAT INDEED EXPERIENCE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD SEE
A LIGHT ICING ON AIRCRAFT AND OTHER METAL AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
AGAIN...THIS IS AND/OR WILL BE THE CASE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHBG
WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO COME TO AND END BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ANY RESIDUAL OR STANDING WATER ON AIRCRAFT...
RUNWAYS...TARMACS...AND RAMPS WILL FREEZE.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS...GUSTING
AT TIMES AROUND 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...
BUT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND RANGE BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

WINTER STORM ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AT 4 AM THE FREEZING LINE
AT THE SURFACE HAS SUNK DOWN TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND THIS FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALOFT THE MEAT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SWING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY PRESENTLY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
SCREAMING HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK HELPING TO FOCUS LIFT IN OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS A SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE LOOK RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE REPORTING MOSTLY SLEET. A FOCUSED BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP IS SETTING UP BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDER OCCURRING IN THIS PRECIP BAND (AND EVEN ELSEWHERE) GIVES
CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY WINTRY
CONSIDERING DROPPING TEMPS.

TAKING MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS INTO ACCOUNT WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING A BIT FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL MS
AND EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MS. WE WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IF NECESSARY. ONE THING
TO POINT OUT IS THAT WHILE SLEET HAS BEEN RATHER UBIQUITOUS SO
FAR THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE HEART OF
FORECAST AREA OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THAT
SAID...MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS SHOULD SEE SOME OF
COMBINATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE SLEET
NORTH OF I-20 AND MORE FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF I-20.

PRECIPITATION REALLY LOOKS TO BE TAPERING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY. DESPITE ENDING PRECIP LATER TODAY THE ONLY CHANCE
AT SUN SHOULD BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID
30S IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RAD COOLING LATE TONIGHT AFTER TODAYS STRONG NORTH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN. REMAINING ICE PACK IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL
HELP WITH COOLING AND ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS IN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND WELL DOWN IN THE 20S MOST OTHER AREAS. SOME RECORD LOWS
WILL LIKELY FALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA TONIGHT AND THE COMING DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN WAY BELOW NORMAL WITH MODIFYING
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATION TO BRING RATHER PERFECT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNDOWN WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN WAY BELOW
NORMAL. /BB/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE WEEKEND WILL
PUSH INTO MAINLY THE 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING
TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ039-
     045-046-049>051-054-055-059>062.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MSZ029>033-036>038-042>044-047-048-053.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ024-
     026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ016-
     023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 051038
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...WINTER STORM ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AT 4 AM THE FREEZING LINE
AT THE SURFACE HAS SUNK DOWN TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND THIS FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALOFT THE MEAT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SWING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY PRESENTLY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
SCREAMING HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK HELPING TO FOCUS LIFT IN OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS A SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE LOOK RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE REPORTING MOSTLY SLEET. A FOCUSED BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP IS SETTING UP BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDER OCCURRING IN THIS PRECIP BAND (AND EVEN ELSEWHERE) GIVES
CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY WINTRY
CONSIDERING DROPPING TEMPS.

TAKING MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS INTO ACCOUNT WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING A BIT FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL MS
AND EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MS. WE WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IF NECESSARY. ONE THING
TO POINT OUT IS THAT WHILE SLEET HAS BEEN RATHER UBIQUITOUS SO
FAR THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE HEART OF
FORECAST AREA OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THAT
SAID...MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS SHOULD SEE SOME OF
COMBINATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE SLEET
NORTH OF I-20 AND MORE FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF I-20.

PRECIPITATION REALLY LOOKS TO BE TAPERING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY. DESPITE ENDING PRECIP LATER TODAY THE ONLY CHANCE
AT SUN SHOULD BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID
30S IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RAD COOLING LATE TONIGHT AFTER TODAYS STRONG NORTH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN. REMAINING ICE PACK IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL
HELP WITH COOLING AND ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS IN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND WELL DOWN IN THE 20S MOST OTHER AREAS. SOME RECORD LOWS
WILL LIKELY FALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA TONIGHT AND THE COMING DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN WAY BELOW NORMAL WITH MODIFYING
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATION TO BRING RATHER PERFECT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNDOWN WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN WAY BELOW
NORMAL. /BB/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE WEEKEND WILL
PUSH INTO MAINLY THE 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING
TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CATS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH LOTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING
WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ALTHOUGH PIB/HBG IN SE MS SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
CEILINGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY...GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WILL FLIGHT CATS MAINLY VFR. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  23  45  26 /  88   4   2   4
MERIDIAN      37  22  46  25 /  93   7   2   3
VICKSBURG     31  21  42  24 /  76   2   2   5
HATTIESBURG   50  26  51  28 /  65  11   2   5
NATCHEZ       32  22  43  25 /  80   4   2   6
GREENVILLE    32  14  35  22 /  50   2   2   3
GREENWOOD     32  16  38  21 /  71   2   2   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ039-
     045-046-049>051-054-055-059>062.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MSZ029>033-036>038-042>044-047-048-053.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ024-
     026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ016-
     023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/17/BB






000
FXUS64 KJAN 051038
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...WINTER STORM ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AT 4 AM THE FREEZING LINE
AT THE SURFACE HAS SUNK DOWN TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND THIS FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALOFT THE MEAT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SWING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY PRESENTLY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
SCREAMING HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK HELPING TO FOCUS LIFT IN OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS A SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE LOOK RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE REPORTING MOSTLY SLEET. A FOCUSED BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP IS SETTING UP BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDER OCCURRING IN THIS PRECIP BAND (AND EVEN ELSEWHERE) GIVES
CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY WINTRY
CONSIDERING DROPPING TEMPS.

TAKING MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS INTO ACCOUNT WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING A BIT FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL MS
AND EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MS. WE WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IF NECESSARY. ONE THING
TO POINT OUT IS THAT WHILE SLEET HAS BEEN RATHER UBIQUITOUS SO
FAR THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE HEART OF
FORECAST AREA OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THAT
SAID...MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS SHOULD SEE SOME OF
COMBINATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE SLEET
NORTH OF I-20 AND MORE FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF I-20.

PRECIPITATION REALLY LOOKS TO BE TAPERING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY. DESPITE ENDING PRECIP LATER TODAY THE ONLY CHANCE
AT SUN SHOULD BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID
30S IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RAD COOLING LATE TONIGHT AFTER TODAYS STRONG NORTH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN. REMAINING ICE PACK IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL
HELP WITH COOLING AND ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS IN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND WELL DOWN IN THE 20S MOST OTHER AREAS. SOME RECORD LOWS
WILL LIKELY FALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA TONIGHT AND THE COMING DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN WAY BELOW NORMAL WITH MODIFYING
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATION TO BRING RATHER PERFECT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNDOWN WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN WAY BELOW
NORMAL. /BB/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE WEEKEND WILL
PUSH INTO MAINLY THE 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING
TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CATS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH LOTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING
WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ALTHOUGH PIB/HBG IN SE MS SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
CEILINGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY...GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WILL FLIGHT CATS MAINLY VFR. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  23  45  26 /  88   4   2   4
MERIDIAN      37  22  46  25 /  93   7   2   3
VICKSBURG     31  21  42  24 /  76   2   2   5
HATTIESBURG   50  26  51  28 /  65  11   2   5
NATCHEZ       32  22  43  25 /  80   4   2   6
GREENVILLE    32  14  35  22 /  50   2   2   3
GREENWOOD     32  16  38  21 /  71   2   2   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ039-
     045-046-049>051-054-055-059>062.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MSZ029>033-036>038-042>044-047-048-053.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ024-
     026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ016-
     023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/17/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 050429
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF MERIDIAN AND
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR BROOKHAVEN. THE TEMPERATURE AT 10PM AT MERIDIAN
WAS STILL 70F AND HATTIESBURG WAS STILL 73F. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JACKSON DOWN TO 47F AND GREENVILLE
34F. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA THAT WILL BEGIN BRINGING
FREEZING RAIN AND WINTRY MIX TO MUCH OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE CURVES WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND REMOVED
THUNDER WORDING. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...DUE TO VARYING
CEILINGS HEIGHTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAS RESULTED IN LOWER CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHERLY AND SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE DELTA. THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING IN THE
DELTA AROUND 05Z TONIGHT. THIS CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE PREVALENT...
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLH AND KGWO. AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 21Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES. FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...HOT TODAY...COLD TOMORROW. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
ACCOMPANIED WITH A MAJOR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE RIGHT NOW. GREENVILLE AND GREENWOOD DROPPED 25 DEGREES IN AN
HOUR WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SEEN
THOUGH HAS BEEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UP TO 30 MPH FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

OF COURSE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING...ONSET...AND
PRECIP TYPES OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FREEZING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO LITTLE ROCK TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THIS LINE WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA BY 03Z WHICH IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THIS IS THE POINT WE EXPECT THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN TO BEGIN THE
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. THIS FREEZING LINE AND THIS TRANSITION
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD REACHING JACKSON BY 12Z.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 6PM FOR
COUNTIES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO
1/4 INCH OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY UP TO ONE
INCH OF SLEET/SNOW MIX. THE WARNING IS EXPANDED ONE COUNTY TIER
SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z AND THEN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS AT
03Z. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO A COATING OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW THIS PRECIP WILL
AFFECT ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SO WARM...JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...DELTA LOCATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ON
ROADWAYS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. BY 12Z...PRECIP FALLING IN THE DELTA
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA IN EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL MS
AND NORTHEAST LA...PRECIP WILL BEGIN IT`S TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH INTO THE
AREA...ANOTHER TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITED THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

FOR MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES UNDER THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY...EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATION IN TREES FIRST THEN ONTO ROOFS
AND ONTO VEHICLES. ROADWAYS WILL BE WARM FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS ON THESE SURFACES TO BE DELAYED AT FIRST.
OTHER IMPACTS TO ALSO CONSIDER ARE THE WIND CHILLS. THE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
GUST FROM THE NORTH UP TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA...TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS STILL BLOWING FROM THE
NORTH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DELTA THAT
MORNING. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START
TO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WONT WARM TOO MUCH FOR THE DELTA REGION. IN
FACT SOME SITES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING THAT DAY OR MUCH
ABOVE IT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WERE NOT ABLE TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME FAIRLY CENTERED
OVER THAT NORTHERN HALF AND WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALMING WINDS...
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE
THE UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY STARTING
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COMES AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS COAST AND TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM RATHER THAN FROZEN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE REGION WILL BE LOCKED INTO MORE OF AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD OUR REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CHANCES IN AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  33  22  43 /  90  76  13  10
MERIDIAN      34  36  22  49 /  79  76  16  12
VICKSBURG     27  31  21  40 / 100  74  11   9
HATTIESBURG   43  46  25  51 /  70  59  20   7
NATCHEZ       29  32  22  40 /  86  75  14   9
GREENVILLE    24  29  16  34 / 100  62   8   9
GREENWOOD     25  30  16  37 / 100  77   9   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ038-039-043>046-048>050-053-054-059>061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ029>033-036-
     037-042-047.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ024-026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ016-023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/15/10/28








000
FXUS64 KJAN 050429
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF MERIDIAN AND
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR BROOKHAVEN. THE TEMPERATURE AT 10PM AT MERIDIAN
WAS STILL 70F AND HATTIESBURG WAS STILL 73F. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JACKSON DOWN TO 47F AND GREENVILLE
34F. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA THAT WILL BEGIN BRINGING
FREEZING RAIN AND WINTRY MIX TO MUCH OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE CURVES WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND REMOVED
THUNDER WORDING. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...DUE TO VARYING
CEILINGS HEIGHTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAS RESULTED IN LOWER CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHERLY AND SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE DELTA. THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING IN THE
DELTA AROUND 05Z TONIGHT. THIS CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE PREVALENT...
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLH AND KGWO. AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 21Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES. FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...HOT TODAY...COLD TOMORROW. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
ACCOMPANIED WITH A MAJOR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE RIGHT NOW. GREENVILLE AND GREENWOOD DROPPED 25 DEGREES IN AN
HOUR WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SEEN
THOUGH HAS BEEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UP TO 30 MPH FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

OF COURSE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING...ONSET...AND
PRECIP TYPES OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FREEZING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO LITTLE ROCK TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THIS LINE WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA BY 03Z WHICH IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THIS IS THE POINT WE EXPECT THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN TO BEGIN THE
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. THIS FREEZING LINE AND THIS TRANSITION
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD REACHING JACKSON BY 12Z.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 6PM FOR
COUNTIES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO
1/4 INCH OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY UP TO ONE
INCH OF SLEET/SNOW MIX. THE WARNING IS EXPANDED ONE COUNTY TIER
SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z AND THEN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS AT
03Z. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO A COATING OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW THIS PRECIP WILL
AFFECT ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SO WARM...JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...DELTA LOCATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ON
ROADWAYS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. BY 12Z...PRECIP FALLING IN THE DELTA
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA IN EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL MS
AND NORTHEAST LA...PRECIP WILL BEGIN IT`S TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH INTO THE
AREA...ANOTHER TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITED THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

FOR MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES UNDER THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY...EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATION IN TREES FIRST THEN ONTO ROOFS
AND ONTO VEHICLES. ROADWAYS WILL BE WARM FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS ON THESE SURFACES TO BE DELAYED AT FIRST.
OTHER IMPACTS TO ALSO CONSIDER ARE THE WIND CHILLS. THE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
GUST FROM THE NORTH UP TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA...TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS STILL BLOWING FROM THE
NORTH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DELTA THAT
MORNING. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START
TO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WONT WARM TOO MUCH FOR THE DELTA REGION. IN
FACT SOME SITES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING THAT DAY OR MUCH
ABOVE IT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WERE NOT ABLE TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME FAIRLY CENTERED
OVER THAT NORTHERN HALF AND WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALMING WINDS...
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE
THE UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY STARTING
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COMES AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS COAST AND TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM RATHER THAN FROZEN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE REGION WILL BE LOCKED INTO MORE OF AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD OUR REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CHANCES IN AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  33  22  43 /  90  76  13  10
MERIDIAN      34  36  22  49 /  79  76  16  12
VICKSBURG     27  31  21  40 / 100  74  11   9
HATTIESBURG   43  46  25  51 /  70  59  20   7
NATCHEZ       29  32  22  40 /  86  75  14   9
GREENVILLE    24  29  16  34 / 100  62   8   9
GREENWOOD     25  30  16  37 / 100  77   9   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ038-039-043>046-048>050-053-054-059>061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ029>033-036-
     037-042-047.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ024-026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ016-023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/15/10/28








000
FXUS64 KJAN 050429
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF MERIDIAN AND
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR BROOKHAVEN. THE TEMPERATURE AT 10PM AT MERIDIAN
WAS STILL 70F AND HATTIESBURG WAS STILL 73F. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JACKSON DOWN TO 47F AND GREENVILLE
34F. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA THAT WILL BEGIN BRINGING
FREEZING RAIN AND WINTRY MIX TO MUCH OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE CURVES WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND REMOVED
THUNDER WORDING. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...DUE TO VARYING
CEILINGS HEIGHTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAS RESULTED IN LOWER CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHERLY AND SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE DELTA. THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING IN THE
DELTA AROUND 05Z TONIGHT. THIS CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE PREVALENT...
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLH AND KGWO. AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 21Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES. FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...HOT TODAY...COLD TOMORROW. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
ACCOMPANIED WITH A MAJOR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE RIGHT NOW. GREENVILLE AND GREENWOOD DROPPED 25 DEGREES IN AN
HOUR WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SEEN
THOUGH HAS BEEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UP TO 30 MPH FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

OF COURSE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING...ONSET...AND
PRECIP TYPES OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FREEZING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO LITTLE ROCK TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THIS LINE WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA BY 03Z WHICH IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THIS IS THE POINT WE EXPECT THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN TO BEGIN THE
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. THIS FREEZING LINE AND THIS TRANSITION
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD REACHING JACKSON BY 12Z.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 6PM FOR
COUNTIES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO
1/4 INCH OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY UP TO ONE
INCH OF SLEET/SNOW MIX. THE WARNING IS EXPANDED ONE COUNTY TIER
SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z AND THEN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS AT
03Z. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO A COATING OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW THIS PRECIP WILL
AFFECT ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SO WARM...JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...DELTA LOCATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ON
ROADWAYS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. BY 12Z...PRECIP FALLING IN THE DELTA
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA IN EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL MS
AND NORTHEAST LA...PRECIP WILL BEGIN IT`S TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH INTO THE
AREA...ANOTHER TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITED THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

FOR MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES UNDER THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY...EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATION IN TREES FIRST THEN ONTO ROOFS
AND ONTO VEHICLES. ROADWAYS WILL BE WARM FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS ON THESE SURFACES TO BE DELAYED AT FIRST.
OTHER IMPACTS TO ALSO CONSIDER ARE THE WIND CHILLS. THE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
GUST FROM THE NORTH UP TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA...TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS STILL BLOWING FROM THE
NORTH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DELTA THAT
MORNING. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START
TO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WONT WARM TOO MUCH FOR THE DELTA REGION. IN
FACT SOME SITES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING THAT DAY OR MUCH
ABOVE IT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WERE NOT ABLE TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME FAIRLY CENTERED
OVER THAT NORTHERN HALF AND WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALMING WINDS...
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE
THE UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY STARTING
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COMES AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS COAST AND TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM RATHER THAN FROZEN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE REGION WILL BE LOCKED INTO MORE OF AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD OUR REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CHANCES IN AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  33  22  43 /  90  76  13  10
MERIDIAN      34  36  22  49 /  79  76  16  12
VICKSBURG     27  31  21  40 / 100  74  11   9
HATTIESBURG   43  46  25  51 /  70  59  20   7
NATCHEZ       29  32  22  40 /  86  75  14   9
GREENVILLE    24  29  16  34 / 100  62   8   9
GREENWOOD     25  30  16  37 / 100  77   9   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ038-039-043>046-048>050-053-054-059>061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ029>033-036-
     037-042-047.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ024-026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ016-023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/15/10/28








000
FXUS64 KJAN 050429
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF MERIDIAN AND
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR BROOKHAVEN. THE TEMPERATURE AT 10PM AT MERIDIAN
WAS STILL 70F AND HATTIESBURG WAS STILL 73F. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JACKSON DOWN TO 47F AND GREENVILLE
34F. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA THAT WILL BEGIN BRINGING
FREEZING RAIN AND WINTRY MIX TO MUCH OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE CURVES WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND REMOVED
THUNDER WORDING. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...DUE TO VARYING
CEILINGS HEIGHTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAS RESULTED IN LOWER CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHERLY AND SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE DELTA. THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING IN THE
DELTA AROUND 05Z TONIGHT. THIS CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE PREVALENT...
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLH AND KGWO. AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 21Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES. FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...HOT TODAY...COLD TOMORROW. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
ACCOMPANIED WITH A MAJOR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE RIGHT NOW. GREENVILLE AND GREENWOOD DROPPED 25 DEGREES IN AN
HOUR WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SEEN
THOUGH HAS BEEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UP TO 30 MPH FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

OF COURSE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING...ONSET...AND
PRECIP TYPES OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FREEZING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO LITTLE ROCK TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THIS LINE WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA BY 03Z WHICH IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THIS IS THE POINT WE EXPECT THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN TO BEGIN THE
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. THIS FREEZING LINE AND THIS TRANSITION
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD REACHING JACKSON BY 12Z.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 6PM FOR
COUNTIES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO
1/4 INCH OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY UP TO ONE
INCH OF SLEET/SNOW MIX. THE WARNING IS EXPANDED ONE COUNTY TIER
SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z AND THEN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS AT
03Z. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO A COATING OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW THIS PRECIP WILL
AFFECT ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SO WARM...JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS TODAY.
ALTHOUGH...DELTA LOCATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ON
ROADWAYS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. BY 12Z...PRECIP FALLING IN THE DELTA
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA IN EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL MS
AND NORTHEAST LA...PRECIP WILL BEGIN IT`S TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH INTO THE
AREA...ANOTHER TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITED THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

FOR MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES UNDER THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY...EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATION IN TREES FIRST THEN ONTO ROOFS
AND ONTO VEHICLES. ROADWAYS WILL BE WARM FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS ON THESE SURFACES TO BE DELAYED AT FIRST.
OTHER IMPACTS TO ALSO CONSIDER ARE THE WIND CHILLS. THE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
GUST FROM THE NORTH UP TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA...TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS STILL BLOWING FROM THE
NORTH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DELTA THAT
MORNING. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START
TO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WONT WARM TOO MUCH FOR THE DELTA REGION. IN
FACT SOME SITES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING THAT DAY OR MUCH
ABOVE IT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WERE NOT ABLE TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME FAIRLY CENTERED
OVER THAT NORTHERN HALF AND WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALMING WINDS...
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE
THE UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY STARTING
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COMES AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS COAST AND TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM RATHER THAN FROZEN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE REGION WILL BE LOCKED INTO MORE OF AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD OUR REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CHANCES IN AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  33  22  43 /  90  76  13  10
MERIDIAN      34  36  22  49 /  79  76  16  12
VICKSBURG     27  31  21  40 / 100  74  11   9
HATTIESBURG   43  46  25  51 /  70  59  20   7
NATCHEZ       29  32  22  40 /  86  75  14   9
GREENVILLE    24  29  16  34 / 100  62   8   9
GREENWOOD     25  30  16  37 / 100  77   9   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ038-039-043>046-048>050-053-054-059>061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ029>033-036-
     037-042-047.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ024-026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ016-023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/15/10/28








000
FXUS64 KJAN 042300
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
HOT TODAY...COLD TOMORROW. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH A
MAJOR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE RIGHT NOW.
GREENVILLE AND GREENWOOD DROPPED 25 DEGREES IN AN HOUR WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SEEN THOUGH HAS
BEEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 20
MPH FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UP TO 30 MPH FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

OF COURSE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING...ONSET...AND
PRECIP TYPES OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FREEZING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO LITTLE ROCK TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THIS LINE WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA BY 03Z WHICH IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THIS IS THE POINT WE EXPECT THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN TO BEGIN THE
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. THIS FREEZING LINE AND THIS TRANSITION
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD REACHING JACKSON BY 12Z.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 6PM FOR
COUNTIES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO
1/4 INCH OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY UP TO ONE
INCH OF SLEET/SNOW MIX. THE WARNING IS EXPANDED ONE COUNTY TIER
SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z AND THEN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS AT
03Z. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO A COATING OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW THIS PRECIP WILL AFFECT
ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SO WARM...JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW RECORD FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS TODAY. ALTHOUGH...DELTA
LOCATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. BY 12Z...PRECIP FALLING IN THE DELTA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA IN EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL MS AND
NORTHEAST LA...PRECIP WILL BEGIN IT`S TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH INTO THE
AREA...ANOTHER TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITED THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

FOR MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES UNDER THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY...EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATION IN TREES FIRST THEN ONTO ROOFS
AND ONTO VEHICLES. ROADWAYS WILL BE WARM FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS ON THESE SURFACES TO BE DELAYED AT FIRST.
OTHER IMPACTS TO ALSO CONSIDER ARE THE WIND CHILLS. THE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
GUST FROM THE NORTH UP TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA...TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS STILL BLOWING FROM THE
NORTH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DELTA THAT
MORNING.
/10/

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START
TO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WONT WARM TOO MUCH FOR THE DELTA REGION. IN
FACT SOME SITES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING THAT DAY OR MUCH
ABOVE IT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WERE NOT ABLE TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME FAIRLY CENTERED
OVER THAT NORTHERN HALF AND WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALMING
WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE
THE UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY STARTING
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COMES AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS
COAST AND TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM RATHER THAN FROZEN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE REGION WILL BE LOCKED INTO MORE OF AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD OUR REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CHANCES IN AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO
VARYING CEILINGS HEIGHTS.  A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPEDING UPON THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN
LOWER CEILINGS...IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WILL THEN RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY AND SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DELTA.  THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING IN THE
DELTA AROUND 03Z TONIGHT.  THIS CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING.  CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE PREVALENT...
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.  AN
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLH AND KGWO.  AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES.  FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  33  22  43 /  90  76  13  10
MERIDIAN      34  36  22  49 /  79  76  16  12
VICKSBURG     27  31  21  40 / 100  74  11   9
HATTIESBURG   43  46  25  51 /  70  59  20   7
NATCHEZ       29  32  22  40 /  86  75  14   9
GREENVILLE    24  29  16  34 / 100  62   8   9
GREENWOOD     25  30  16  37 / 100  77   9   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ038-039-043>046-048>050-053-054-059>061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MSZ029>033-036-037-042-047.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ024-026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAZ016-023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

/10/28/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 042300
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
HOT TODAY...COLD TOMORROW. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH A
MAJOR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE RIGHT NOW.
GREENVILLE AND GREENWOOD DROPPED 25 DEGREES IN AN HOUR WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SEEN THOUGH HAS
BEEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 20
MPH FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UP TO 30 MPH FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

OF COURSE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING...ONSET...AND
PRECIP TYPES OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FREEZING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO LITTLE ROCK TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THIS LINE WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA BY 03Z WHICH IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THIS IS THE POINT WE EXPECT THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN TO BEGIN THE
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. THIS FREEZING LINE AND THIS TRANSITION
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD REACHING JACKSON BY 12Z.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 6PM FOR
COUNTIES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO
1/4 INCH OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY UP TO ONE
INCH OF SLEET/SNOW MIX. THE WARNING IS EXPANDED ONE COUNTY TIER
SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z AND THEN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS AT
03Z. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO A COATING OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW THIS PRECIP WILL AFFECT
ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SO WARM...JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW RECORD FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS TODAY. ALTHOUGH...DELTA
LOCATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. BY 12Z...PRECIP FALLING IN THE DELTA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA IN EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL MS AND
NORTHEAST LA...PRECIP WILL BEGIN IT`S TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH INTO THE
AREA...ANOTHER TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITED THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

FOR MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES UNDER THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY...EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATION IN TREES FIRST THEN ONTO ROOFS
AND ONTO VEHICLES. ROADWAYS WILL BE WARM FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS ON THESE SURFACES TO BE DELAYED AT FIRST.
OTHER IMPACTS TO ALSO CONSIDER ARE THE WIND CHILLS. THE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
GUST FROM THE NORTH UP TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA...TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS STILL BLOWING FROM THE
NORTH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DELTA THAT
MORNING.
/10/

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START
TO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WONT WARM TOO MUCH FOR THE DELTA REGION. IN
FACT SOME SITES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING THAT DAY OR MUCH
ABOVE IT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WERE NOT ABLE TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME FAIRLY CENTERED
OVER THAT NORTHERN HALF AND WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALMING
WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE
THE UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY STARTING
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COMES AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS
COAST AND TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM RATHER THAN FROZEN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE REGION WILL BE LOCKED INTO MORE OF AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD OUR REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CHANCES IN AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO
VARYING CEILINGS HEIGHTS.  A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPEDING UPON THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN
LOWER CEILINGS...IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WILL THEN RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY AND SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DELTA.  THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING IN THE
DELTA AROUND 03Z TONIGHT.  THIS CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING.  CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE PREVALENT...
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.  AN
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLH AND KGWO.  AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES.  FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  33  22  43 /  90  76  13  10
MERIDIAN      34  36  22  49 /  79  76  16  12
VICKSBURG     27  31  21  40 / 100  74  11   9
HATTIESBURG   43  46  25  51 /  70  59  20   7
NATCHEZ       29  32  22  40 /  86  75  14   9
GREENVILLE    24  29  16  34 / 100  62   8   9
GREENWOOD     25  30  16  37 / 100  77   9   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ038-039-043>046-048>050-053-054-059>061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MSZ029>033-036-037-042-047.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ024-026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAZ016-023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

/10/28/19/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 042300
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
HOT TODAY...COLD TOMORROW. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH A
MAJOR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE RIGHT NOW.
GREENVILLE AND GREENWOOD DROPPED 25 DEGREES IN AN HOUR WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SEEN THOUGH HAS
BEEN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 20
MPH FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UP TO 30 MPH FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

OF COURSE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING...ONSET...AND
PRECIP TYPES OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FREEZING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
TO LITTLE ROCK TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA. THIS LINE WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA BY 03Z WHICH IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
THIS IS THE POINT WE EXPECT THE POST-FRONTAL RAIN TO BEGIN THE
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. THIS FREEZING LINE AND THIS TRANSITION
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD REACHING JACKSON BY 12Z.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 6PM FOR
COUNTIES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO
1/4 INCH OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY UP TO ONE
INCH OF SLEET/SNOW MIX. THE WARNING IS EXPANDED ONE COUNTY TIER
SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z AND THEN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS AT
03Z. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO A COATING OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW THIS PRECIP WILL AFFECT
ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN SO WARM...JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW RECORD FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS TODAY. ALTHOUGH...DELTA
LOCATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. BY 12Z...PRECIP FALLING IN THE DELTA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA IN EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL MS AND
NORTHEAST LA...PRECIP WILL BEGIN IT`S TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH INTO THE
AREA...ANOTHER TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITED THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

FOR MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES UNDER THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY...EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATION IN TREES FIRST THEN ONTO ROOFS
AND ONTO VEHICLES. ROADWAYS WILL BE WARM FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
SO EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS ON THESE SURFACES TO BE DELAYED AT FIRST.
OTHER IMPACTS TO ALSO CONSIDER ARE THE WIND CHILLS. THE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
GUST FROM THE NORTH UP TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA COME FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA...TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS STILL BLOWING FROM THE
NORTH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DELTA THAT
MORNING.
/10/

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START
TO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WONT WARM TOO MUCH FOR THE DELTA REGION. IN
FACT SOME SITES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO FREEZING THAT DAY OR MUCH
ABOVE IT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WERE NOT ABLE TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME FAIRLY CENTERED
OVER THAT NORTHERN HALF AND WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALMING
WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE
THE UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY STARTING
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COMES AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS
COAST AND TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM RATHER THAN FROZEN.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE REGION WILL BE LOCKED INTO MORE OF AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS TOWARD OUR REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP PERSISTENT CHANCES IN AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO
VARYING CEILINGS HEIGHTS.  A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPEDING UPON THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN
LOWER CEILINGS...IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WILL THEN RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY AND SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DELTA.  THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING IN THE
DELTA AROUND 03Z TONIGHT.  THIS CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH DAY BREAK THURSDAY
MORNING.  CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE PREVALENT...
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.  AN
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLH AND KGWO.  AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES.  FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  33  22  43 /  90  76  13  10
MERIDIAN      34  36  22  49 /  79  76  16  12
VICKSBURG     27  31  21  40 / 100  74  11   9
HATTIESBURG   43  46  25  51 /  70  59  20   7
NATCHEZ       29  32  22  40 /  86  75  14   9
GREENVILLE    24  29  16  34 / 100  62   8   9
GREENWOOD     25  30  16  37 / 100  77   9   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ038-039-043>046-048>050-053-054-059>061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MSZ029>033-036-037-042-047.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ024-026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAZ016-023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

/10/28/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 041616 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1016 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPS ARE WIDELY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CURRENTLY WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID 60S...VERY SPRINGLIKE INDEED.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP AND IS
CURRENTLY LINED UP FROM MEMPHIS TO PINE BLUFF TO TEXARKANA. THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TODAY ACTUALLY. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE DELTA WHERE IT IS WARMING UP
QUICKLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS TO POP UP TODAY. THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS...A STRONG STORM
IS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THUNDER IS MORE
LIKELY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE FORCING IS GREATER.
/10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO VARYING CEILINGS
HEIGHTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS
IMPEDING UPON THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...LOWER CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA.  THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY
COLD AIRMASS.

THROUGH THE NIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEGINNING IN THE DELTA AROUND 03Z TONIGHT.  THIS CHANGEOVER IN
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING.  CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE
PREVALENT...BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.  AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES.  AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES.  FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
WEATHER MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER
HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  40 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      80  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    70  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     74  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 041616 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1016 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPS ARE WIDELY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CURRENTLY WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID 60S...VERY SPRINGLIKE INDEED.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP AND IS
CURRENTLY LINED UP FROM MEMPHIS TO PINE BLUFF TO TEXARKANA. THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TODAY ACTUALLY. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE DELTA WHERE IT IS WARMING UP
QUICKLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS TO POP UP TODAY. THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS...A STRONG STORM
IS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THUNDER IS MORE
LIKELY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE FORCING IS GREATER.
/10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO VARYING CEILINGS
HEIGHTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS
IMPEDING UPON THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...LOWER CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA.  THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY
COLD AIRMASS.

THROUGH THE NIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEGINNING IN THE DELTA AROUND 03Z TONIGHT.  THIS CHANGEOVER IN
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING.  CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE
PREVALENT...BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.  AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES.  AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES.  FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
WEATHER MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER
HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  40 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      80  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    70  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     74  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 041616 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1016 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPS ARE WIDELY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CURRENTLY WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID 60S...VERY SPRINGLIKE INDEED.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP AND IS
CURRENTLY LINED UP FROM MEMPHIS TO PINE BLUFF TO TEXARKANA. THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TODAY ACTUALLY. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE DELTA WHERE IT IS WARMING UP
QUICKLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS TO POP UP TODAY. THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS...A STRONG STORM
IS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THUNDER IS MORE
LIKELY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE FORCING IS GREATER.
/10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO VARYING CEILINGS
HEIGHTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS
IMPEDING UPON THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...LOWER CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA.  THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY
COLD AIRMASS.

THROUGH THE NIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEGINNING IN THE DELTA AROUND 03Z TONIGHT.  THIS CHANGEOVER IN
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING.  CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE
PREVALENT...BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.  AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES.  AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES.  FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
WEATHER MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER
HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  40 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      80  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    70  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     74  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 041616 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1016 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPS ARE WIDELY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CURRENTLY WITH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID 60S...VERY SPRINGLIKE INDEED.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP AND IS
CURRENTLY LINED UP FROM MEMPHIS TO PINE BLUFF TO TEXARKANA. THE
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TODAY ACTUALLY. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE DELTA WHERE IT IS WARMING UP
QUICKLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS TO POP UP TODAY. THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS...A STRONG STORM
IS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THUNDER IS MORE
LIKELY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE FORCING IS GREATER.
/10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO VARYING CEILINGS
HEIGHTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS
IMPEDING UPON THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...LOWER CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA.  THIS WILL USHER IN A VERY
COLD AIRMASS.

THROUGH THE NIGHT...THESE STRONG COLD ADVECTING WINDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEGINNING IN THE DELTA AROUND 03Z TONIGHT.  THIS CHANGEOVER IN
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING.  CURRENTLY...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS MORE
PREVALENT...BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES...AT KGLH AND KGWO WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.  AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW UP TO 1 INCH
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES.  AT KGTR...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...ICE
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.25 INCHES.  FINALLY...AT
KHKS...KJAN...AND KMEI...ICE ACCUMULATION IF ANY...CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIGHT AND ONLY COLLECTING ON METAL SURFACES AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
WEATHER MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER
HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  40 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      80  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    70  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     74  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 041153 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
WEATHER MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER
HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MEI AND HBG...WHERE THERE A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEGINNING NEAR NOON AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...REACHING JAN/HKS/MEI SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND HBG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL OCCUR
NEAR AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A TRANSITION TO FZRA/PL AT GLH AND GWO TONIGHT...AT GTR AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY AT JAN OR MEI THURSDAY MORNING. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  44 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      81  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    66  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     72  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 041153 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
WEATHER MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER
HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MEI AND HBG...WHERE THERE A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEGINNING NEAR NOON AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...REACHING JAN/HKS/MEI SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND HBG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL OCCUR
NEAR AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A TRANSITION TO FZRA/PL AT GLH AND GWO TONIGHT...AT GTR AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY AT JAN OR MEI THURSDAY MORNING. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  44 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      81  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    66  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     72  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 041153 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
WEATHER MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER
HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MEI AND HBG...WHERE THERE A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEGINNING NEAR NOON AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...REACHING JAN/HKS/MEI SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND HBG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL OCCUR
NEAR AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A TRANSITION TO FZRA/PL AT GLH AND GWO TONIGHT...AT GTR AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY AT JAN OR MEI THURSDAY MORNING. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  44 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      81  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    66  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     72  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 041153 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
WEATHER MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER
HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MEI AND HBG...WHERE THERE A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEGINNING NEAR NOON AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...REACHING JAN/HKS/MEI SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND HBG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL OCCUR
NEAR AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A TRANSITION TO FZRA/PL AT GLH AND GWO TONIGHT...AT GTR AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY AT JAN OR MEI THURSDAY MORNING. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  44 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      81  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    66  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     72  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 041153 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
WEATHER MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER
HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MEI AND HBG...WHERE THERE A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEGINNING NEAR NOON AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...REACHING JAN/HKS/MEI SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND HBG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL OCCUR
NEAR AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A TRANSITION TO FZRA/PL AT GLH AND GWO TONIGHT...AT GTR AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY AT JAN OR MEI THURSDAY MORNING. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  44 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      81  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    66  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     72  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/BB






000
FXUS64 KJAN 041153 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
553 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
WEATHER MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER
HERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MEI AND HBG...WHERE THERE A PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEGINNING NEAR NOON AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...REACHING JAN/HKS/MEI SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND HBG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL OCCUR
NEAR AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A TRANSITION TO FZRA/PL AT GLH AND GWO TONIGHT...AT GTR AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY AT JAN OR MEI THURSDAY MORNING. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  44 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      81  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    66  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     72  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY      FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 041040
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...IT IS A TASTE OF SPRING OUTSIDE
RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. THIS ONLY MAKES IT HARDER TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS
AWAY FROM A CRUEL RETURN TO WINTER. TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER
MAPS...UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS DOWN THROUGH
BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH IS A STRENGTHENING JET
STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT
THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

THROUGH THE DAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND NOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO
MAINLY SHOWERLY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT POPS WERE SCALED
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE A QUITE WARM
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...RAIN WILL INCREASE WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED THUNDER EVEN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT AS RATHER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES...WITH TEMP FALLS OF 30-40 DEGREES IN JUST A FEW
HOURS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

THINGS GET A BIT MESSIER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING...FIRST OCCURRING INTO THE DELTA BETWEEN SUNSET AT
MIDNIGHT. AS A STRONG WARM NOSE PERSISTS BETWEEN 700-900 MB...PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
RUNS OF THE SREF HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF
THIS PRECIP OCCURRING AS SLEET. AND THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN A
RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT DEPICTS NEAR
SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYERS AS GREAT AS 3-4 KFT OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS SURGING MORE
READILY IN OUR WEST ACROSS THE FLAT DELTA AND MORE SLOWLY FARTHER
EAST. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD GREATER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG
UPPER JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL PRECIP.
THIS PORTENDS THE POTENTIAL FOR RESULTING IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE FREEZING LINE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING TO GENERALLY A
BROOKHAVEN TO JUST SOUTH OF MERIDIAN LINE.

ALONG THE MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AREAS THAT WILL FALL TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING...IMPACTS ARE LESS LIKELY AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL MAKE FOR WARM GROUND AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO GET ICE
ACCRETION WITH MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO NEWELLTON TO
NEAR THE JACKSON METRO TO MACON...LINGERING PRECIP WOULD MAKE FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE DELTA POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

AS WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE BEGINNING OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR
MUCH OF THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...IT HAS NOW BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT WEBSTER AND
CLAY COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WARNING...A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WE
BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE
TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIP THURS MORNING CONTINUES. ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR 1/4 TO 3/4 OF QPF
WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. WE ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION AND UP TO AN INCH OF
SLEET/SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE PROPORTIONS MAY STILL NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. OBVIOUSLY A GREATER
PROPORTION OF ICE THAN SLEET/SNOW COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR
OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GOOD LATE NIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ATOP EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF ZONES COULD
REALLY PLUMMET TEMPS AND SHATTER SOME RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA POTENTIALLY WAY DOWN IN THE
TEENS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS IS IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF COLD WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CALENDER DATE...AND WE WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE REGION AND MODIFYING
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL THANKFULLY
PROBABLY NOT DIP INTO THE TEENS IN ANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET RELOADS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS WILL ENTER BACK INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARM ENOUGH BY THIS TIME TO KEEP WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE PICTURE.

UNFORTUNATELY...A SOMEWHAT INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
LOCK INTO PLACE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ANCHOR OVER TX AND OLD MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SPILL CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY. DEEP WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IN THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN SEQUESTERED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE HARD TO SHAKE FROM THE
FORECAST (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SHOW
MODERATION...BUT DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  31  34  22 /  44 100  83   8
MERIDIAN      81  35  36  23 /  24  99  84   9
VICKSBURG     79  29  33  19 /  66 100  83   6
HATTIESBURG   81  42  42  26 /  26  91  64  13
NATCHEZ       79  30  34  23 /  33 100  86   9
GREENVILLE    66  25  31  14 /  98 100  69   4
GREENWOOD     72  27  31  16 /  93 100  76   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ029>033-036>039-042>045-047-048.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ016-023>025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/BB




000
FXUS64 KJAN 040326
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
926 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH THE
NIGHT. FOG WAS CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS SOGGY AND MSAS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WAS A WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST...SO COULD SEE FOG MOVING IN FROM THE COAST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE FOG OVER THE DELTA
MAINTAINING. EITHER WAY ADDED AREAS OF FOG EVERYWHERE. WILL HOLD OFF
ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE ADVISORY LIMITS. ALSO MADE SOME
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST. VALUES WERE IN
THE UPPER 50S...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.
THINKING THERE COULD BE A LITTLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE NORTHWEST
TO LOWER VALUES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 04/06Z WITH
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
04/18Z...BUT BEGIN LOWERING AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 04/18Z OVER MEI/HBG./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       62  79  32  33 /  32  71  99  77
MERIDIAN      60  80  37  36 /  27  58  97  80
VICKSBURG     63  73  30  33 /  18  80 100  74
HATTIESBURG   61  82  46  41 /  16  51  92  80
NATCHEZ       63  80  32  34 /  16  55 100  80
GREENVILLE    58  64  25  31 /  27  99 100  56
GREENWOOD     61  66  29  32 /  42  94 100  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>030-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

7/26






000
FXUS64 KJAN 040326
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
926 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH THE
NIGHT. FOG WAS CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS SOGGY AND MSAS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WAS A WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST...SO COULD SEE FOG MOVING IN FROM THE COAST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE FOG OVER THE DELTA
MAINTAINING. EITHER WAY ADDED AREAS OF FOG EVERYWHERE. WILL HOLD OFF
ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE ADVISORY LIMITS. ALSO MADE SOME
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST. VALUES WERE IN
THE UPPER 50S...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.
THINKING THERE COULD BE A LITTLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE NORTHWEST
TO LOWER VALUES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 04/06Z WITH
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
04/18Z...BUT BEGIN LOWERING AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 04/18Z OVER MEI/HBG./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       62  79  32  33 /  32  71  99  77
MERIDIAN      60  80  37  36 /  27  58  97  80
VICKSBURG     63  73  30  33 /  18  80 100  74
HATTIESBURG   61  82  46  41 /  16  51  92  80
NATCHEZ       63  80  32  34 /  16  55 100  80
GREENVILLE    58  64  25  31 /  27  99 100  56
GREENWOOD     61  66  29  32 /  42  94 100  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>030-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

7/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 032235
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
435 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER
WARM DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS A WARM FRONT MOVED THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALMOST
AREAWIDE WITH MID 60S IN THE DELTA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 20 TO
EVEN 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...MAKING
CONDITIONS FEEL RATHER MUGGY. SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING UP THE I-55 CORRIDOR BUT OVERALL MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DRIER SIDE. THIS IS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A RATHER WARM 24 HOURS OR SO WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD
OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT GIVEN OUR LOCATION
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE COULD DROP ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. SOME
LIGHT WARM ADVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY AS WE REMAIN UNDER SOME INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND IN A NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER WE
SHOULD STILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT HEADS TOWARD OUR REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM DECENTLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
INTO THE 70S AND EVEN SOME 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE JUST SHOWERS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES
AND THE COLDER AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP AND A CHANGEOVER TO SOME SLEET AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE DELTA. THIS LOOKS TO START AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE ROUGHLY WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
RAIN UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. JUST ABOVE EVERYONE IN THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN...EVEN IF IT IS JUST LIGHT
ICING...EXCEPT FOR THE PINE BELT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH WARM
AIR LINGERING HERE WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR IT TO REMAIN RAIN. IN
ADDITION...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS THERE. ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY AROUND OR AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO WATCHES/HWO/GRAPHICS
AS IT SEEMS COVERED WELL AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25-30MPH AND POSSIBLE GUST TO NEAR 40MPH
BASED ON SOME GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
BUT WITH SOME MORE TERRAIN THEY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP OFF DRASTICALLY PARTICULARLY
IN THE DELTA/FLATTER TERRAIN. WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
70S...WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE A DROP OF ABOUT 40 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WONT BE VERY WARM GIVEN
CLOUDS...COLD ADVECTION...PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY. IT IS
FEASBILE WE COULD ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE OVERNIGHT
LOW. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON TEH CHILLY SIDE WITH
READINGS IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.
/28/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE
DELTA...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...ASIDE FROM A RAIN
FREE SATURDAY AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE TIMING OF
A COASTAL LOW PROGGED TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT STATUSES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  FLIGHT STATUSES WILL AGAIN FALL TO AT LEAST MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NAMELY KMEI AND
KHBG...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF
LOW CEILINGS AND DEGRADED VISIBILITIES FROM FOG...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WINDS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPEDE UPON THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  79  32  33 /  32  71  99  77
MERIDIAN      63  80  37  36 /  27  58  97  80
VICKSBURG     65  73  30  33 /  18  80 100  74
HATTIESBURG   65  82  46  41 /  14  51  92  80
NATCHEZ       66  80  32  34 /  13  55 100  80
GREENVILLE    60  64  25  31 /  27  99 100  56
GREENWOOD     62  66  29  32 /  42  94 100  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>030-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

28/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 032235
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
435 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER
WARM DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS A WARM FRONT MOVED THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALMOST
AREAWIDE WITH MID 60S IN THE DELTA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 20 TO
EVEN 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...MAKING
CONDITIONS FEEL RATHER MUGGY. SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING UP THE I-55 CORRIDOR BUT OVERALL MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DRIER SIDE. THIS IS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A RATHER WARM 24 HOURS OR SO WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD
OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT GIVEN OUR LOCATION
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WE COULD DROP ONLY INTO THE LOWER 60S. SOME
LIGHT WARM ADVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY AS WE REMAIN UNDER SOME INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND IN A NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER WE
SHOULD STILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT HEADS TOWARD OUR REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM DECENTLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
INTO THE 70S AND EVEN SOME 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE JUST SHOWERS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES
AND THE COLDER AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP AND A CHANGEOVER TO SOME SLEET AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE DELTA. THIS LOOKS TO START AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE ROUGHLY WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
RAIN UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. JUST ABOVE EVERYONE IN THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN...EVEN IF IT IS JUST LIGHT
ICING...EXCEPT FOR THE PINE BELT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH WARM
AIR LINGERING HERE WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR IT TO REMAIN RAIN. IN
ADDITION...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS THERE. ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY AROUND OR AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO WATCHES/HWO/GRAPHICS
AS IT SEEMS COVERED WELL AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DELTA REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25-30MPH AND POSSIBLE GUST TO NEAR 40MPH
BASED ON SOME GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
BUT WITH SOME MORE TERRAIN THEY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP OFF DRASTICALLY PARTICULARLY
IN THE DELTA/FLATTER TERRAIN. WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
70S...WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE A DROP OF ABOUT 40 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WONT BE VERY WARM GIVEN
CLOUDS...COLD ADVECTION...PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY. IT IS
FEASBILE WE COULD ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE OVERNIGHT
LOW. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON TEH CHILLY SIDE WITH
READINGS IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.
/28/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE
DELTA...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...ASIDE FROM A RAIN
FREE SATURDAY AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE TIMING OF
A COASTAL LOW PROGGED TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT STATUSES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  FLIGHT STATUSES WILL AGAIN FALL TO AT LEAST MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NAMELY KMEI AND
KHBG...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF
LOW CEILINGS AND DEGRADED VISIBILITIES FROM FOG...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WINDS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPEDE UPON THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  79  32  33 /  32  71  99  77
MERIDIAN      63  80  37  36 /  27  58  97  80
VICKSBURG     65  73  30  33 /  18  80 100  74
HATTIESBURG   65  82  46  41 /  14  51  92  80
NATCHEZ       66  80  32  34 /  13  55 100  80
GREENVILLE    60  64  25  31 /  27  99 100  56
GREENWOOD     62  66  29  32 /  42  94 100  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>030-034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

28/19






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